[HN Gopher] NFL Pick-Em's LLM Bot
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       NFL Pick-Em's LLM Bot
        
       Author : madrox
       Score  : 21 points
       Date   : 2024-01-16 21:34 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (github.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (github.com)
        
       | squirrelmaster wrote:
       | This is very cool. I'd be interested to see how it does against
       | the market
        
       | the_doctah wrote:
       | I feel like it would be a lot more useful if it wasn't tied
       | directly to the ESPN game. Like, the screen scraping part seems
       | ancillary.
       | 
       | The performance is very impressive though, NFL games aren't easy
       | to pick.
        
       | snake_plissken wrote:
       | I can't find the actual picks that this LLM made, are they listed
       | anywhere? As squirrelmaster commented [1], would be very
       | worthwhile to see how this picked in regards to the (betting)
       | markets: against-the-spread (ATS) and the money-line.
       | 
       | [1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=39019606
        
       | frogamel wrote:
       | In my experience, you can get extremely good performance in this
       | style of sports prediction with extremely basic methods. E.g.
       | doing some sort of basic Elo rating system + choosing the higher
       | rated competitor to win every game. This is simply because almost
       | all human competitors will frequently try to predict upsets (as
       | its more fun), but it will harm their performance overall.
       | 
       | I would be cool to see if something like this can do can
       | outperform a benchmark Elo system but even that is an extremely
       | high bar that most sophisticated models can't beat.
        
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       (page generated 2024-01-16 23:01 UTC)