[HN Gopher] Microsoft overtakes Apple as most valuable company
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       Microsoft overtakes Apple as most valuable company
        
       Author : mfiguiere
       Score  : 128 points
       Date   : 2024-01-11 16:47 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | bmitc wrote:
       | Re-overtakes. It's happened several times.
        
       | thriftwy wrote:
       | Why? I've never heard Microsoft doing anything relevant in the
       | last 15 years or so. What's the news?
       | 
       | Perhaps it's just the same may be said about Apple now. At least
       | they have A4 though, whereas Microsoft does not seem to be
       | jumping x86 ship just yet, does it?
        
         | bch wrote:
         | > [...]thanks to the early lead the company has taken in
         | generative artificial intelligence through an investment in
         | ChatGPT-maker OpenAI.
        
         | kcb wrote:
         | They put themselves in the best position to capitalize on AI
         | especially in the enterprise but also by integrating Copilot
         | into Windows. With so many companies already trusting their
         | confidential data to MS, it's easy to justifying using
         | their/OpenAI tech through Azure.
         | 
         | CPU architectures are irrelevant to Microsoft at this point.
        
           | partiallypro wrote:
           | Microsoft is also starting to develop their own chips and are
           | expanding more into ARM. They can't just "abandon" x86/64
           | like people think they can, it's not realistic. If they ever
           | do it will be almost 20 years from now unless ARM just gets
           | -that- far ahead that they have no choice.
        
         | zwieback wrote:
         | Cloud and AI investments are paying off.
        
           | barbariangrunge wrote:
           | Stock price comes from public expectations. This just
           | confirms that the public expects openai to pay off
        
         | KoftaBob wrote:
         | Their revenue sources are more diverse than you think. Products
         | that are either directlyfrom their portfolio, or from a company
         | they have a large stake in
         | 
         | - Windows
         | 
         | - Office 365, which includes Teams, a product that has boomed
         | in usage since 2020
         | 
         | - Xbox + Activision Blizzard
         | 
         | - Azure Cloud, the 2nd largest cloud computing platform
         | 
         | - Github, by far the largest version control platform for
         | developers
         | 
         | - Linkedin, quickly becoming one of the largest platforms for
         | hiring
         | 
         | - Bing search + their ad network
         | 
         | - OpenAI/ChatGPT
         | 
         | - Edge browser
         | 
         | - Surface line of laptops and tablets
        
           | skc wrote:
           | SQL Server is a massive business as well.
        
         | nikanj wrote:
         | Because they picked a CEO with a background in the very
         | products the company is making. Often companies this size pick
         | a professional bean-counter to man the helm, with predictable
         | results
        
         | ozim wrote:
         | Relevant for who? Influencers that have to have MacBook because
         | otherwise they cannot show off their "wealth".
         | 
         | MS was doing relevant stuff for corporations like banks,
         | insurance companies, public services. That is where real money
         | is Apple doesn't have any of it.
        
         | tempaway82751 wrote:
         | Microsoft is the most diversified of the major players. OS,
         | Office, Enterprise, Cloud, Gaming, Devices, AI
        
           | otalp wrote:
           | I would argue Amazon is more diversified but bogged down by a
           | low margin retail business
        
         | orthoxerox wrote:
         | Microsoft relies on independent hardware vendors selling
         | Windows PCs, so they can't just go and build their own CPU like
         | Apple can. They partnered with Qualcomm, but Qualcomm
         | underdelivered.
        
       | HumblyTossed wrote:
       | I guess they finally got enough Win11 upgrades?
        
       | seydor wrote:
       | This rally doesnt make a lot of sense
        
       | devinprater wrote:
       | Apple just has to make a Siri key on their MacBooks. They'll then
       | be so number one they might go passed 1 into 0, and then -1, ETC.
       | /s
        
         | yousifa wrote:
         | that already exists, its the microphone button
        
       | scottyah wrote:
       | The main things I see lately are: Apple is creating VR headsets
       | and new chip technology, Microsoft is buying up AI companies and
       | injecting ads/spyware into their operating systems. Also
       | Microsoft is getting big into cloud.
       | 
       | Interesting to see what Wall Street rewards.
        
         | sho_hn wrote:
         | Ok, so one of those technologies potentially saves people time
         | and levels the playing field by enabling the use of computers
         | with less special training to achieve equivalent results.
         | 
         | The other one aims to strap screens to other people's faces to
         | keep them even longer in a perpetually-online computer bubble
         | of their own choosing, because that's been going great for
         | society so far.
        
           | al_borland wrote:
           | Those are some upsides of AI, there are also many potential
           | downsides that could be very harmful to society, more so than
           | some AR goggles. Time will tell how it all plays out.
           | 
           | Apple is also invested in AI, they just refuse to use the AI
           | buzzword, and use ML instead, which is probably the more
           | accurate term.
        
           | tivert wrote:
           | > Ok, so one of those technologies potentially saves people
           | time and levels the playing field by enabling the use of
           | computers with less special training to achieve equivalent
           | results.
           | 
           | Did you forget allowing the sum total of human knowledge to
           | be swamped by dogshit, because it allows for the creation of
           | dogshit at scale more cheaply than ever before?
        
           | croes wrote:
           | >potentially saves people time
           | 
           | And potentially kills people's jobs, potentially helps
           | spammers and phisher to start larger and better campaigns,
           | potentially increases the amount of fake news, disinformation
           | or just bullshit.
        
         | bmitc wrote:
         | Microsoft is _much_ more diversified than that. They have
         | entire consulting services and a world class research arm and
         | many other things that Apple has no analog of.
        
           | bch wrote:
           | > world class research arm
           | 
           | Honest question: does Wall Street care? In my experience,
           | this is the kind of thing that's (rightly or wrongly)
           | considered a "cost center", not a "profit center".
        
             | bonestamp2 wrote:
             | I think you're right, investors don't really value the
             | research arm until something profitable comes out of it and
             | then they only value that thing that came out of it and not
             | research arm itself.
             | 
             | In some sense, that is the right move. For example, Intel
             | was a market leader for decades while their research arm
             | was very stagnant for many years too. Other times, it is
             | short sighted not to price in what might be to come because
             | you miss buying shares on the cheap before a huge
             | technology/product leap.
        
           | dataangel wrote:
           | Ignorant question: Does much actually make it out of MS
           | Research? I've seen lots of interesting retrospectives on
           | stuff that either failed or just has never come out of the
           | lab (Singularity/Midori, accessibility demos showing phones
           | reading restaurant menus to the blind, their tablet pre-ipad,
           | etc.) but I don't think I know of anything they made that
           | really grew up off the top of my head.
           | 
           | I didn't want to say this without doing a little bit of
           | homework so I checked their Wikipedia page
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Research) which
           | doesn't list any accomplishments, just claims they have a lot
           | of patents, and their main site has a publication index
           | (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publications/?) but
           | publication is not a good metric for ever seeing use.
        
             | speps wrote:
             | Back in 2014 for the release of Kinect Sports Rivals, the
             | tech to scan people and extract their body details into the
             | right face shapes to match them with a virtual avatar. That
             | came from MS Research Cambridge as far as I know.
             | 
             | Here is a video of it demo'd: https://youtu.be/YKkULaN7J9o
        
             | breadwinner wrote:
             | > _Does much actually make it out of MS Research?_
             | 
             | Nope. Microsoft Research has some luminaries such as Leslie
             | Lamport, Christopher Bishop, Xuedong Huang and others, but
             | as far as actual research output that has been
             | commercialized, there is not much to show off.
        
             | scns wrote:
             | Is Simon Peyton Jones still at Microsoft? He is is at Epic
             | Games now IIRC. Lennart Poettering is there though last i
             | heard.
        
               | dataangel wrote:
               | Oh yeah I didn't mean to imply the people there never
               | produce anything that gets widely used in their whole
               | careers, I'm specifically asking if it ever happens
               | _while_ they are at MS Research.
        
             | bmitc wrote:
             | There are several examples. F# came from Microsoft Research
             | and has also fed into C#. Also, Haskell.
             | 
             | Note that it does research and not R&D. You aren't going to
             | get products from research but rather technology
             | advancements that then get incorporated. That happens a
             | lot, and they obviously publish a lot.
        
             | thefz wrote:
             | Read or watch something about how flight simulator was
             | built, as an example
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | Microsoft is one of the most diversified companies in
         | existence. Pretty much every business, every government and
         | most consumers around the world are directly or indirectly
         | paying them money for _something_ , whether software, devices,
         | consulting, cloud, data. On the other hand Apple's success for
         | the last 15 years has relied on a single device. Now that the
         | device is running into some issues (dropping sales in China,
         | general stall in innovation, regulatory hurdles) their stock
         | price is reacting accordingly.
         | 
         | Of course investors aren't rewarding them for an upcoming VR
         | headset which is yet to be proven. Why would they?
        
           | GoToRO wrote:
           | also people don't realize how local Apple is. In a lot of
           | countries you can't even access their services which
           | decreases the value of their devices.
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | But oddly enough one of those countries isn't China. Its
             | weird how Google and Facebook can't do much their while
             | everything from Apple works as well as anywhere else.
        
               | shortcrct wrote:
               | Because Apple is willing to play China's game. Google and
               | Facebook's business models (ads) fundamentally don't work
               | with China's government. They sell different products
               | than Apple.
        
           | twism wrote:
           | i was just thinking i haven't paid MS anything since i got my
           | hands on "VXKC4-2B3YF-W9MFK-QB3DB-9Y7MB"
           | 
           | ... then i just got an email receipt from my xbox gold
           | subscription. curses!
        
           | CharlesW wrote:
           | > _On the other hand Apple 's success for the last 15 years
           | has relied on a single device._
           | 
           | That "single device company" makes just half of its revenue
           | from iPhones. Recurring services revenue accounted for almost
           | 25%.
        
             | paxys wrote:
             | How much of that other half would still be around if the
             | iPhone was no longer a thing? Apple Care? App store
             | purchases? IAP/microtransactions? Apple Pay? iCloud
             | storage? Chargers? Airpods?
             | 
             | They can structure their financial reports however they
             | like, but it doesn't change the fact that their entire
             | ecosystem is directly or indirectly tied to that one
             | device.
        
         | kgwgk wrote:
         | > Interesting to see what Wall Street rewards.
         | 
         | It seems to be rewarding Apple? They also had a similar market
         | cap two years ago. Microsoft has seen growth in revenue and net
         | income, Apple has not. Going back to pre-covid times the
         | picture is similar: better financial results for Microsoft but
         | still head-to-head with Apple in market cap.
        
         | thefz wrote:
         | Microsoft has been innovating way more than Apple, which is
         | always going for the low hanging fruit of taking tested and
         | consolidated tech from others and rebranding it as its own.
        
         | amadeuspagel wrote:
         | If you think that a company's market capitalization isn't high
         | enough, you can always buy its stock. Conversely, if you think
         | it's too high, you can always short it. Not financial advice.
        
       | riley333 wrote:
       | Apple just needs to do SOMETHING exciting with AI. Vision Pro
       | looks great, but it's only a small piece of a much larger puzzle.
       | I'm not sure if they're just too big to move at the speed they
       | need to move or if it's something more damning about their
       | internal culture but they need to do something in this space
       | faster than I think most people realize.
        
         | iwontberude wrote:
         | Or maybe they just need to survive long enough to see what is
         | actually valuable in AI and not going to damn their company.
        
         | al_borland wrote:
         | Apple is rarely first to release new tech. They watch and
         | develop quietly in the lab, then release an implementation that
         | everyone else seems to copy.
         | 
         | So far their approach has been different, but their last
         | keynote mentioned ML countless times. We can only assume they
         | have more in the pipeline, and it will run locally on-device,
         | which seems preferable to all the data collection being done
         | with most companies working on AI.
        
           | Eric_WVGG wrote:
           | Funny how we're at the eve of Vision Pro coming to consumers,
           | twelve years after the Oculus Rift.
           | 
           | blah blah those who don't study history something whatever
        
           | riley333 wrote:
           | That's true, and Apple has the capital to do pretty much
           | whatever they want. I just think as we've seen with
           | Google/Gemini it doesn't seem that easy to beat what OpenAI
           | has going even with a lot of money to throw behind it. And I
           | don't think Tim Cook is that much of a visionary but that's
           | just my personal opinion.
           | 
           | I hope Apple does succeed though because I love their
           | hardware and their silicon is great for AI applications.
        
         | vrc wrote:
         | I'm just waiting for Siri to reliably set timers when I'm
         | cooking. Between my watch and my phone, it's a damn nightmare
         | to actually do the most basic thing with what should be a
         | ubiquitous AI platform. They've had ages to make it better and
         | some great minds in their employ, and yet they've really not
         | done much. That said, if and when they do, they have immediate
         | distribution and proof points to sell oodles more of their AI-
         | enabled products and wearables...
        
           | mft_ wrote:
           | Funny you raise that, as this is one of the very few tasks
           | that Siri _does_ do reliably for me :)
           | 
           | (Along with just-about-good-enough speech-to-text, if I speak
           | clearly, and checking on the weather outside.)
           | 
           | --
           | 
           | But yes, totally agree with your underlying point about the
           | huge opportunity that Apple is leaving on the table with
           | their lackluster approach to Siri.
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | Microsoft's recent stock gains are obviously due to AI hype and
       | the expected returns from it, but does the company actually have
       | obvious lines of revenue from AI to that degree? Looking at the
       | numbers investors are expecting them to make more from LLMs than
       | they do from products like Windows and Office.
       | 
       | I don't want to use the "bubble" word, but...
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | People expect LLM's to be folded into Office, and MS to command
         | a premium for the real or perceived productivity boost.
        
         | foobarian wrote:
         | What about Azure revenues providing access to GPU resources?
        
           | paxys wrote:
           | That's all going to NVIDIA.
        
         | snowwrestler wrote:
         | Microsoft's biggest lines of business support knowledge work
         | (Windows, email, Office, MS365, etc) and AI is looking it will
         | provide a nice productivity bump to knowledge workers.
         | 
         | Even just building AI into existing products could help justify
         | price increases, offset on the customer side by higher
         | productivity.
         | 
         | In plain English: AI means companies will need fewer knowledge
         | workers per unit revenue and MS will have a strong claim on
         | some of those additional profits if they are supplying the AI
         | (even if they are reselling OpenAI).
        
       | tiffanyh wrote:
       | Bill Gates, at time of IPO owned 49% of Microsoft.
       | 
       | If he hadn't sold his stock, he'd be worth ~$1.5 _Trillion_
       | 
       | To put that into context, he'd be worth 6x Elon Musk (who's the
       | current riches person-in-the-world)
       | 
       | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-could-trillionaire....
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | But there would be a shit ton more polio in the world, so I'll
         | accept that tradeoff.
        
           | tiffanyh wrote:
           | Larry Ellison still today owns 42% of Oracle.
           | 
           | What he does instead is take out loans against his stock.
           | 
           | Bill could have done the same and still fund all his
           | philanthropy.
           | 
           | https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/lawrence-
           | j-e....
        
           | huytersd wrote:
           | Man I love Bill Gates so much. I know low effort posts are
           | frowned here but I had to say it.
        
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