[HN Gopher] Samsung forecasts 85% drop in profit as chip sales f...
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Samsung forecasts 85% drop in profit as chip sales falter
Author : ilamont
Score : 131 points
Date : 2024-01-09 16:40 UTC (6 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (koreajoongangdaily.joins.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (koreajoongangdaily.joins.com)
| iamthirsty wrote:
| Samsung & Intel getting hammered, AMD & NVIDIA riding at their
| highest. Wild world we live in.
| asylteltine wrote:
| Not surprising given their behavior. Intel stopped innovating
| around the time ryzen came out. Ryzen itself was an innovation.
| When was the last time Samsung innovated anything? Quantum dots
| are a revolution but not related to chips.
| joecool1029 wrote:
| Anyone that's owned both Samsung and TSMC fabbed chips in
| phones in the past 5 years just knows the Samsung ones run
| hot, are inferior to TSMC. They are the company you fallback
| to if you can't get it done on TSMC due to shortages.
| mathverse wrote:
| I am sorry but that is incredibly simplistic view. Yes TSMC
| is better but this is a winnner takes all industry. Samsung
| has other problems since its its own customer for chips and
| has fingers in many other industries. It is still a wonder
| that they are basically the 2nd best fab in the world.
| wolverine876 wrote:
| Are you basing that on two phones you owned? Is there data
| out there?
| ksec wrote:
| >When was the last time Samsung innovated anything?
|
| Ehm...... You may be using their DRAM or NAND.
| iamthirsty wrote:
| & Screen tech, possibly camera sensors/lenses -- going
| beyond the original scope of the post, but still.
| stefan_ wrote:
| Samsung just happens to be in commodity chip making. Don't
| worry, the chip bosses will get together for a bottle of Soju,
| do some racketeering, SSDs and RAM will be expensive again but
| profits are going to be back.
| elorant wrote:
| SSDs are already spiking. A 2TB Samsung Sata3 ssd went from
| EUR120 in October to EUR170 in December.
| beebeepka wrote:
| Well, they pretty much announced this months ago. The cycle
| continues as usual.
| antisthenes wrote:
| Nvidia just happens to be making mining picks during a gold
| rush. They also happened to be making mining picks during the
| previous gold/silver rush, mostly propped up by ETH PoW algo.
|
| It's a wild world, but NVDA also happened to be an extreme
| outlier in terms of hitting 2 gold rushes in a row.
| bcrosby95 wrote:
| "Just happens to be" is doing a lot of work here. Nvidia has
| invested billions of dollars over the past ~2 decades to be
| in the position they're in.
| jraby3 wrote:
| Arm is also killing it and at a high.
| HDThoreaun wrote:
| Intel up 65% this year. Not too far from their all time high
| now.
| UncleOxidant wrote:
| Looks like the all time high closing price for INTC was 73.94
| way back in September of 2000. It's gotta go up about $26 to
| get back there - it's not close.
| sumtechguy wrote:
| are your numbers right?
| PKop wrote:
| I'm seeing 75.81
| UncleOxidant wrote:
| Was that the intraday high? I'm not seeing anything that
| high on the google stock chart for INTC, but I can't seem
| to zoom in on that particular section of time to see if
| there was a small spike.
| UncleOxidant wrote:
| Going by the google chart for INTC. It seems clear that
| it's in the $70s - the point being that we're a long ways
| from INTC being in the $70s. (someone below saying it got
| to $75 and change - maybe that was an intraday high, not
| a closing high?)
| fswd wrote:
| I think they did several stock splits, and this time period
| was one of them
| wredue wrote:
| If you look at intel history, they bounce like crazy.
|
| That said, I saw they were low and picked up a couple grand
| of intel in my playing tfsa and it's been happy.
| demondemidi wrote:
| Been holding intc since 1997. Never sold during the early
| 2000s just rode it out. Probably gonna start cashing out
| this year or next as part of early retirement before
| hitting my IRA since the intc was bought post tax.
| bastardoperator wrote:
| Is it just chips? Because their consumer appliance division seems
| to have huge problems. I bought a fridge and it was fully dead in
| under 6 months. I was able to get a full refund because they lost
| a class action lawsuit, but it's crazy how bad their appliances
| are, I don't trust samsung for anything, also:
|
| https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2023/10/2....
| Handprint4469 wrote:
| Yup, had the same happen with a 3-month old washing machine.
| I'm sticking to Bosch from now on.
| sampo wrote:
| In washing machines, there is also LG (Korean). And in
| Europe, Electrolux/AEG.
| throwup238 wrote:
| SpeedQueens are beasts if you can afford it and their
| interfaces are downright quaint compared to the smart-crap
| everyone else makes. They're essentially all made for
| commercial customers so they almost never break with
| regular household usage and parts are easily available for
| repairs.
| samch wrote:
| Agreed. This is what we settled on as well after doing
| some research. They also have longer than average
| warranties on most models.
| bob1029 wrote:
| I recently purchased a TC5 and really like it. You can
| actually get proper commercial equipment from them with
| some mild social engineering. They still manufacture
| washers that are purely mechanical:
|
| https://speedqueencommercial.com/en-us/products/top-load-
| was...
|
| I stuck with the consumer segment because I dont want to
| have a weird conversation if I need service. The TC5 is
| electronic control, but it doesnt have all the limitation
| crap that other consumer units do. No lid lock & 100%
| fill is pretty much all I ask for these days.
| ilamont wrote:
| Can confirm. Used a Speed Queen dryer for 5+ years now.
| Didn't find it to be especially expensive.
| beauzero wrote:
| I agree. We have a farm as well and Georgia clay, tractor
| grease, pebbles, a miswired 220 outlet (just popped a
| fuse...easily replaced), nails, and the occasional
| misplaced socket haven't broken it. Gets used 3-4 times
| daily. We also have one in the barn tack room that we
| wash horse blankets with. I love them.
| mattgreenrocks wrote:
| Loved ours when we had it, though it was a bit smaller
| than some other ones.
| BossingAround wrote:
| I like my LG TV and washing machine, but I'm not sure I'd
| trust them with a fridge. Is it better than Samsung's
| fridges?
| darrylb42 wrote:
| I have all LG appliances. Washer & drier are 10+ years
| old, came with the house. Fridge, stove & dishwasher are
| newish (2 years old). So far they have been great. I
| really like the induction top on the stove, though having
| to match the pan size to the burner is a little annoying
| sometimes.
| philjohn wrote:
| There are - but you typically can't go wrong with a Bosch
| (or Miele).
|
| My Bosch is now coming up to 15 years old - I had to take
| it apart a year or so ago to replace the heating element as
| it finally blew, and the inside of the machine looked new.
| Spare parts are still available as well.
| jacquesm wrote:
| And Miele. A bit on the pricey side but very solid gear.
| youniverse wrote:
| Exact same thing here, had to call a repair service to
| replace a chip inside for $350 and now its been working fine
| for a few years.
| FactolSarin wrote:
| Same with a dryer. We avoid Samsung for everything but TVs now
| sho_hn wrote:
| Why TVs? All the good panels are by LG.
| ChadMoran wrote:
| Sony is quite solid as well and if you don't connect it to
| the internet it's one of the best "dumb" TVs.
| ElectricalUnion wrote:
| Aren't "Sony" panels rebranded Samsung (and sometimes LG)
| panels?
| sho_hn wrote:
| Sony uses LG panels for their high-end TVs, but with
| custom image processors and heatsinks that are pretty
| nice.
| mastercheif wrote:
| Sony uses Samsung QD-OLED panels in their top of the line
| OLED models. They then use LG W-OLED to fill out the rest
| of their lineup.
| booi wrote:
| I think virtually all high-end OLED panels are made by
| either Samsung Display or LG Display.
| helloericsf wrote:
| Samsung TV is definitely a "Smarter" TV, compared to
| SONY. lol.
| tstrimple wrote:
| Because Samsung TVs deliver 90% of the quality at half the
| price. There's a reason basically every single major TV
| reviewer put the x95c as the TV of the year in 2023. LG and
| Sony eke out minor quality victories at massively increased
| prices. I do miss my Sony up-scaling quality for the odd
| old show I watch. The Samsung is noticeably bad here.
| BossingAround wrote:
| Funny, from my experience, over here (Europe), Samsung
| TVs tend to be more expensive than LG TVs.
| tstrimple wrote:
| If I could have purchased the LG G3 77" around Black
| Friday timeframe last year for cheaper than the Samsung I
| absolutely would have. I really wanted to go with the G3,
| but was around a $1,200 difference that was hard to
| justify for the bump in quality.
| chipotle_coyote wrote:
| At least a few years ago, it was cheaper for me to buy an
| 55" LG OLED TV than a comparable Samsung model in the US,
| and that was factoring in the Samsung employee discount I
| had at the time.
| philjohn wrote:
| QD-OLED beats LG panels on brightness without resorting to
| tricks (WOLED uses white pixels to increase brightness).
| Seeing them side by side with images of shiny metals such
| as gold, QD-OLED just looks far better.
|
| There's a reason Sony use QD-OLED panels in their top-of-
| the-range TV's.
| wing-_-nuts wrote:
| I purposefully buy my appliances as 'dumb' as possible. The
| only thing I own that needs to be 'smart' is my computer, and I
| have complete control over its operating system.
| wredue wrote:
| Unfortunately, this is becoming somewhere between difficult
| and impossible.
|
| Lots of vendors make their "dumb" stuff unequivocally worse
| than the smart stuff, but just not using the "smart".
|
| I think the worst part right now is over-complicated circuits
| to provide like button presses and stuff, then charging $400
| when a small part of that circuit inevitably dies so you are
| forced to take your range to the metal reclaimers and get a
| new one.
| nicholasjarnold wrote:
| I suspect this is because with "smart stuff" we often have
| the associated cellphone app which gives <corp> much deeper
| insight into your life. This stream of data from your
| personal life and home can be monetized in various ways.
| You can help _be_ the product when you _buy_ the product.
| Cool. /s
| YetAnotherNick wrote:
| What do you mean by dumb. Is having timer too smart for you
| and you want to manually turn it off or change modes? I have
| never seen washing machine any washing machine smarter than
| that. Even for the washing machines that label themselves as
| smart, it just sounds like a marketing term[1] and there is
| nothing smart about it.
|
| [1]: https://www.samsung.com/us/home-
| appliances/washers/front-loa...
| anamexis wrote:
| Well you haven't been looking too closely then, because
| there are a ton of washing machines on the market that are
| WiFi-enabled and have apps.
| YetAnotherNick wrote:
| There must be for sure, but I opened bestbuy and I can't
| find any on the first page[1]. There are always some
| buyer who are attracted by technical terms so there is
| some market for those.
|
| [1]: https://www.bestbuy.com/site/washers-dryers/washers-
| washing-...
| wlesieutre wrote:
| Maybe we're getting different lists, the 5th one down for
| me is a Samsung with WiFi
|
| https://www.bestbuy.com/site/6416171.p?skuId=6416171
| YetAnotherNick wrote:
| Where does it say that it has wifi? Smart is just a
| marketing term here.
| mikeyouse wrote:
| It's definitely not just a marketing term..
|
| If you follow the specs on that model - you'll see a,
| "Wireless Connectivity: Wi-Fi"
|
| If you go to the product page on Samsung.com
| (https://www.samsung.com/us/home-
| appliances/washers/front-loa...)
|
| _" Smart Care - Easy troubleshooting from the
| convenience of your smartphone.* Smart Care interacts
| with your washer and dryer to perform an immediate
| diagnosis and offer quick solutions."_
|
| _" * Requires Samsung Smart Washer/Dryer App. The
| Samsung Smart Washer/Dryer App supports Android OS 2.3.6
| or later and iOS 3 or later for iPhone models. Samsung
| Smart Washer/Dryer App available in App Store and Play
| Store."_
| YetAnotherNick wrote:
| There is no "Wireless Connectivity: Wi-Fi" in specs at
| least in samsung's site. It does display the
| troubleshooting which seems something like QR for machine
| status, which I really doubt it will troubleshoot
| anything and it is just there for false assurance.
| ceejayoz wrote:
| Yes, there is. On your link: https://imgur.com/a/O1zBuJW
| wlesieutre wrote:
| You may be right, Best Buy says it has WiFi but it isn't
| mentioned in the manual.
|
| Still, a bit further down the results this LG definitely
| does:
| https://www.bestbuy.com/site/6419621.p?skuId=6419621
| nwsm wrote:
| If your appliance has a network stack it's no longer dumb.
| Most major appliance brands are now selling wifi-enabled
| dishwashers with companion smartphone apps.
| wing-_-nuts wrote:
| My washer and drier have mechanical 'egg timer' spring
| wound timers. I prefer something like that. Hell, I
| remember my microwave in college simply had _two_ nobs, one
| for time, and one for power, and it was _perfect_. If I
| could find a high power 1200W version of that microwave I
| 'd buy it today.
| greenpresident wrote:
| Buy something (semi-)professional like the Panasonic NE
| 1840. There should be smaller, cheaper variants. The NE
| 1027 EYG will most likely work for home use. Commercial
| appliances are made to last and then be repaired.
| nicholasjarnold wrote:
| Commercial Chef makes a 600W model (CHM660B) with exactly
| this configuration. Not what you're looking for exactly,
| given the power, but maybe helpful to others who share
| your sentiment.
| neogodless wrote:
| First item on that link for me:
|
| > Easy troubleshooting from the convenience of your
| smartphone.
|
| You're going to argue it doesn't have network connectivity
| and circuitry?
| YetAnotherNick wrote:
| It doesn't have network connectivity. And most of the
| time, it doesn't have additional circuitry which would
| cost the manufacturer money. Instead it's just a software
| gimmick to show status via app using something like qr of
| washing machine status. It's purpose is to save status
| light which were part of older models and it costed them
| money. It is just more smart marketed version which is
| dumb product overall.
| ceejayoz wrote:
| Yes, it does. Click the "See all specs" button.
|
| Wi-Fi Connectivity: Yes
|
| https://imgur.com/a/O1zBuJW
| vardump wrote:
| > ...I have complete control over its operating system.
|
| But no control over BIOS, firmware for over 10 devices (wifi,
| bluetooth, camera, SSD, touchpad, and so on), a full hidden
| OS running on the CPU, etc.
|
| Every USB device has their own code running on them.
|
| Even laptop batteries have a microcontroller that's running
| _something_ totally inaccessible to you.
|
| While you can control the OS it's running, it's not really
| _your_ computer.
| withinboredom wrote:
| You can buy cpus without the management engine enabled. You
| can burn whatever bios you want (though I recommend a
| compatible one), and you can install whatever drivers you
| want with whatever binary blob firmware you want. The OS
| loads that firmware at boot, so you do have full control
| (unless you are on a Mac).
|
| I'm running a custom bios on my laptop that lets me tune
| whatever I want. It's literally just code, like anything
| else.
| oynqr wrote:
| Add trusted boot to the mix and suddenly you can't modify
| any of it.
| withinboredom wrote:
| Even off the shelf bioses let you set your own keys for
| safe boot.
| oynqr wrote:
| Well, it will let be boot an OS that isn't Windows, cool.
| Still can't modify the signed firmware itself.
| gosub100 wrote:
| its not the "smart stuff" that is the problem (although that
| stuff is annoying and rarely helpful). I bought a house that
| had a samsung fridge built within the last 10 years. The
| fridge had a "defect" [1] where the defroster would leak
| water over the thermostat, which would then freeze, and most
| of the fridge would go warm because the thermostat thought it
| was below freezing. the appliance tech said this is a known
| defect and they sell aftermarket kits to fully thaw the
| thermostat. Furthermore, the icemaker would leak water that
| froze it in position (no, the defrost cycle wouldn't help),
| requiring an enormous amount of force to break out to unclog
| it and get ice again. Samsung is _absolutely_ , _positively_,
| _JUNK_.
|
| [1] my personal conspiracy theory is they manufacture these
| defects on purpose to scare you into buying expensive
| warranties and slowly nudge you to buy a new fridge in 6
| years.
| foobarian wrote:
| We had problems with all Samsung appliances ever. The
| fridge leak was fixed by a longer defrost heat spreader. A
| different fridge has the icemaker freeze up requiring a
| heat gun session once a month. Knobs break off of stoves.
| Washing machine rusting in contact with cleaning chemicals.
| Etc. :-). Not my choice with the brand since they came with
| apartment or house we bought but definitely a good lesson.
| spacecadet wrote:
| Same here. From there you can control all sorts of open
| alternatives for smart things, if you need that. I prefer
| most of my appliances to be "dumb" but resilient.
| alephnerd wrote:
| Their Semiconductor's and Memory division is Samsung's cash cow
| [0]. All their consumer electronics divisions are basically
| attempts at cashing into adjacent sectors (eg. Samsung started
| making chips and displays for cellphone makers like Nokia and
| Sony since the 1990s, so they pivoted into the smartphone world
| in the 2000s)
|
| That said, not surprised by the semiconductor revenue decrease
| due to the trade war that happened between Korea and Japan [1]
| due to very acrimonious elections in SK in 2019 along with
| South Korea's de facto trade war with China [2] in the
| aftermath of the THAAD rollout (that's also why Vietnam is
| growing so fast - almost all Korean companies pivoted to
| Vietnam overnight after negotiating a very one sided free trade
| deal and moved operations literally overnight). Procurement
| lags by a couple years so the downward hit only began around
| 2023 from the looks of it.
|
| Probably explains why South Korea acquiesced.
|
| [0] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/630434/samsung-
| quarterly...
|
| [1] -
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan%E2%80%93South_Korea_trad...
|
| [2] - https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-south-korea-sees-
| tech...
| treme wrote:
| Most of the revenue tanking comes from decreased demand from
| Chinese markets.
|
| Japan-Korea trade war was mostly for show and added an extra
| theoretical risk and bureaucracy but in actuality all the
| Japanese chip supply companies would have gone bankrupt had
| they enforced it, considering there are only two companies,
| TSMC and Samsung that buy supplies they sell, and TSMC
| wouldn't be able to magically take up Samsung's capacity. US
| would have been forced to keep Japanese companies supplying
| Samsung otherwise their high tech sectors would be in
| shambles / increased geopolitical risk of TSMC being sole
| supplier of higher end chips.
|
| Samsung increased domestic and Chinese supply proportions in
| their supply chain and paid a little extra for other supplies
| they depend on Japanese supply companies since the trade
| 'sanctions' didn't block Japanese Chip companies from by-
| passing it via 3rd country rerouting. Some Japanese companies
| also built factories in Korea to bypass it.
|
| Korea acquiesced mostly because Moon administration over-
| reached in trying to win brownie points from nationalist left
| by being "tough" on Japan which put them in a legally
| vulnerable position with Supreme court's judgement(by
| installing supreme court judges with clear ideological bend)
| in direct conflict with 1965 Japan-Korea agreement +
| increased geopolitical risk atmosphere from China/
| Ukraine/Russian war.
| alephnerd wrote:
| > decreased demand from Chinese markets
|
| Makes sense. That was my other hunch as well.
|
| > Korea acquiesced mostly because Moon administration over-
| reached in trying to win brownie points from nationalist
| left by being "tough" on Japan which put them in a legally
| vulnerable position with Supreme court's judgement(by
| installing supreme court judges with clear ideological
| bend) in direct conflict with 1965 Japan-Korea agreement +
| increased geopolitical risk atmosphere from China/
| Ukraine/Russian war.
|
| Yep. Imo SK looks like it's entering a very turbulent
| political couple of years due to the DPK-People Power
| bickering. There has definitely been a fair amount of
| democratic backsliding due to a weaker civil society
| megous wrote:
| I don't get why people bother posting anything to Facebook,
| when it can just flip a switch and kill a 100k strong
| supposedly fairly useful "forum", because some CEO dislikes
| having a contact info public, or whatever. So much wasted
| effort.
| zilti wrote:
| They don't know any better.
| leetrout wrote:
| I just replaced our samsung fridge after catching it being over
| 45F for over 24 hours for the second time in six months.
|
| Absolutely junk and dangerous. Could have made us sick if we
| hadn't paid attention to it.
| mattgreenrocks wrote:
| Can I ask how you checked this?
|
| We suspect our freezer is oscillating from freezing to not
| freezing, and I'd like to get an idea of the variance of
| temperatures over a 24-48 hr period.
| boplicity wrote:
| If it's a freezer, put something heavy-ish on top of a thin
| layer of ice. If it sinks below the ice, then you know it's
| thawed.
| jacquesm wrote:
| I love this way of thinking. Low tech, infallible.
| epolanski wrote:
| > We suspect our freezer is oscillating from freezing to
| not freezing
|
| That's how no frost works by blowing the cold but moisty
| air inside to the outside, this indeed raises the
| temperature briefly in the freezer.
|
| But this only can become an issue if you're opening the
| fridge so many times a day.
| kristianc wrote:
| I had this problem with their TV as well. They sold this
| Samsung One box with it which completely replaced the HDMI out
| on the TV. Of course the software on the box then failed
| leaving the TV functionally useless for anything that didn't
| use WiFi.
| beebeepka wrote:
| > I don't trust samsung for anything
|
| Funny thing to say on a tech site but, of course, not everyone
| cates about hardware. Who makes better RAM than Samsung?
| Micron?
| silisili wrote:
| Soooo I made the mistake of assuming all the "Samsung bad"
| quirks had been worked out when I bought a set last year. Yeah,
| never again.
|
| The microwave door handle just fell off at the 6 month mark.
| The repairman said the entire door needs to be replaced, since
| the handle isn't replaceable.
|
| The "icemaker" in the fridge begin not working. Turns out,
| there is a part that is nothing more than a plastic icetray
| with a tiny electric motor on it, and it had cracked all the
| way through and was dropping water into the bucket, making a
| big ball of ice. That part costs over $100. It's an ice tray -
| a small one at that. It's primary function is you know, not
| cracking. It's now making weird noises and barely a year old, I
| don't expect it'll last long. Luckily I'm selling the house
| this year, I wonder if I should write in disclosures that "I
| bought Samsung. I'm so sorry."
| epolanski wrote:
| I have a fridge, oven and tv from Samsung (all bought in the
| last 24 months). None has a problem.
|
| I absolutely vouch for their appliances, I did spend good time
| reviewing and testing the competition and the fridge is
| perfect.
|
| Actually fwiw I have never had any issue with Samsung
| electronics stuff (also have a galaxy tablet SE 7).
|
| Thought it was fair to counter such negative anecdotes with a
| happy customer.
| f6v wrote:
| > He noted that the chip sector is recovering at a slower-than-
| expected pace because the growth of shipment and prices centers
| around a few high-performing semiconductors at a time when
| overall demand for electronic devices remains weak.
|
| Ok, so was the demand higher during Covid and the market bounced
| back to normal?
| mschuster91 wrote:
| I'd rather say the market has issues thanks to inflation caused
| by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting interest
| rate hikes. "Luxuries" like TVs and phones are where people
| save the most when their economic future is uncertain.
| smcin wrote:
| Stop trying to blame things on Russia-Ukraine: high inflation
| was always foreseeable as the end of a decade of artificially
| low US interest rates; here's nytimes.com from 4/26/2018 "The
| Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an
| End" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16934387
| hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
| Big pet peeve is when journalists highlight the percentage change
| in _profit_ in the headline just because it 's a bigger, scarier
| number. Big companies swing from profits to losses (and vice
| versa) all the time, but you rarely see it highlighted as
| "Profits drop 158%!" because (a) that doesn't really make sense,
| but more importantly (b) it highlights how dumb it is to use
| percentage change in profit in the first place.
|
| The more useful metric is given in the article: _revenue_ was
| down 14.6 percent on year.
| rat9988 wrote:
| I find the profit metric more useful.
| Spartan-S63 wrote:
| Why? Profit is the difference between revenue and expenses.
| Samsung could simultaneously see an increase in expenses and
| a reduction in revenue. Only the latter shows a true market
| slowdown. The former shows Samsung either investing in future
| R&D or experiencing larger inefficiencies.
|
| If the story is that the market is slowing, a revenue
| forecast is more helpful. If the story is that Samsung is
| investing in R&D, sure, profit works, but it requires an
| explanation of where the operating income is being spent. If
| the story is Samsung is poorly run, then profit works, but an
| additional explanation of where the inefficiencies are is
| required.
| jsight wrote:
| It is definitely useful, but not as a direct proxy for
| demand.
| jason-phillips wrote:
| Exactly. Historically semiconductors don't generate much
| profit. 2% profit would be a banner year for Samsung. 85%
| reduction from that would not be that notable.
| alephnerd wrote:
| Samsung also suffered from the Japan-South Korea trade war
| that caused Samsung and other South Korean companies to lose
| preferential access to Japan, which lead to Japanese
| manufacturers pivoting to alternative suppliers.
| adventured wrote:
| > 2% profit would be a banner year for Samsung. 85% reduction
| from that would not be that notable.
|
| Which history? The last 20 years have been extraordinarily
| lucrative in semiconductors. All eras aren't the same and
| today's semiconductor business - which is heavily
| consolidated and gigantic - is not similar to the distant
| past.
|
| A normal operating profit margin for the semiconductor
| business is 15-30%. No healthy semiconductor business today
| is routinely operating at sub 5% operating income margins.
|
| 2% profit isn't a banner year, that's a bad year for any
| relevant semiconductor company of the last quarter century.
|
| Intel, Taiwan Semi, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments,
| ASML, Analog Devices, LAM, KLA, Broadcom, NXP, ON Semi
|
| Take a look at their operating profit margins. Nobody in that
| sector with a normal to healthy business is operating
| anywhere close to a 2% profit. Nearly all the majors more
| routinely operate with abnormally fat profit margins compared
| to other types of business.
|
| ASML has a 30%+ operating income margin.
|
| Nvidia has historically been around 15-25% operating income
| margin, and are now approaching 50%.
|
| The average operating income margin for Intel over the past
| 25 years is closer to 20-25%.
|
| Taiwan Semi is at 40-45% operating income margin.
|
| Qualcomm is at 20%.
|
| Texas Instruments is over 40%.
|
| Analog Devices is at 30%.
|
| Applied Materials is at 30%. KLA is at 35-40%. LAM is at
| 25-30%.
|
| Broadcom is at 40%.
|
| NXP is at 20-30%.
|
| ON is at 20-30%.
|
| These are normal margins today for semis. And you could cut
| them in half and they're still drastically above the low
| single digit area.
| jason-phillips wrote:
| > Which history?
|
| Mine? I worked there for a decade. I suppose I should have
| qualified my statement by saying "Samsung semiconductors".
| PedroBatista wrote:
| I think is more a "Samsung" problem then anything else other than
| the slowdown in consumer appliances. Not really a chips problem
| by itself, which becomes a problem since they produce a lot of
| chips for their own appliances ( which had been developing a
| reputation for being over-complicated dogshit trash that breaks
| in 2 years or less ).
|
| The real trouble ( and opportunities ) will arrive when all those
| new fabs come online in the next couple years.
| kypro wrote:
| It dropped 95% just last year...
| https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/27/samsung-earnings-q1-2023.htm...
| mrcwinn wrote:
| I feel like I've seen this headline several times over the past
| couple years. Are there any profits left to further decline?
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