[HN Gopher] JAL A359 at Tokyo collided with Coast Guard DH8C on ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       JAL A359 at Tokyo collided with Coast Guard DH8C on runway and
       burst into flames
        
       Author : nixass
       Score  : 105 points
       Date   : 2024-01-02 14:08 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (avherald.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (avherald.com)
        
       | higeorge13 wrote:
       | Wow, 2 rough first 2024 days for Japan..
        
         | manojlds wrote:
         | In a way it's related to the first event.
        
       | trollied wrote:
       | If this is going to be the main discussion thread, I'd recommend
       | changing the link to a non-tabloid news article.
       | 
       | All passengers and crew evacuated from the Airbus, thankfully.
        
       | brunohaid wrote:
       | Definitely better links than Daily Mirror out there, avherald.com
       | unfortunately overwhelmed, but in terms of discussion:
       | 
       | - Crazy how well the carbon fiber A350 held up given that it
       | seems to have landed pretty much directly on a Dash 8 (RIP Coast
       | Guard team). Looks like trading long term flammability for
       | initial rigidity lived up to the design intent.
       | 
       | - Excellent evacuation job, especially as it looks like on some
       | videos that the crew was unable to shut down the right engine,
       | rendering the entire right side unusable (severed lines given the
       | severe belly damage?) UPDATE: they actually did use the front
       | right exit nevertheless
       | https://x.com/tanakamaru1999/status/1742132422005981578
       | 
       | - Don't have headphones with me and in a public space, but
       | landing / takeoff clearances should be somewhere in
       | https://archive.liveatc.net/rjtt/RJTT-Twr-TCA-Jan-02-2024-08...
       | if someone wants to try and find them (timestamps towards end of
       | url come in 30 minute increments).
        
         | qwertox wrote:
         | Direct link to the avherald.com page of the event in order to
         | not hit the landing page:
         | http://avherald.com/h?article=5132b9fe&opt=0
        
         | kzrdude wrote:
         | It's somewhat reassuring to see an actual video of those chutes
         | being used for evacuation, just never saw it before.
        
         | throw0101d wrote:
         | > _Excellent evacuation job_
         | 
         | While there many silly reasons to force people to shutdown
         | electronics and such on planes, I think forcing people to not
         | have any distractions during take-offs and landings is a good
         | thing.
         | 
         | Over 50% of incidents (fatal and hull loss/non-fatal) occurring
         | during landing:
         | 
         | * https://accidentstats.airbus.com/statistics/accident-by-
         | flig...
         | 
         | * https://www.1001crash.com/transport-page-statistique-
         | lg-2-nu...
         | 
         | With take-off and descent/approach being the next two more
         | frequent phases.
        
           | jefftk wrote:
           | Over 50%, sure, but 50% of a very small number. How many
           | deaths do you expect keeping passengers from being distracted
           | at these times would prevent?
           | 
           | (I expect if you compare that to the number of people
           | inconvenienced by the rule it's a terrible trade off.)
        
             | throw0101d wrote:
             | > _How many deaths do you expect keeping passengers from
             | being distracted at these times would prevent?_
             | 
             | As of today: 379.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | Where's that number coming from?
        
               | throw0101d wrote:
               | The number of souls on board for JL516.
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_516
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | But all JL516 passengers survived? How would keeping
               | these passengers from using their phones during landing
               | have reduced their deaths?
        
               | throw0101d wrote:
               | AF358 was engulfed in flames with-in three minutes
               | (180s):
               | 
               | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5jSyaj_JwE
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_358
               | 
               | The FAA mandates that aircraft are able to be evacuated
               | with-in 90s:
               | 
               | * https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circ
               | ular/...
               | 
               | Even for something as big as an A380 in its 800+
               | passenger configuration:
               | 
               | * https://www.flightglobal.com/airbus-a380-evacuation-
               | trial-fu...
               | 
               | * https://simpleflying.com/aircraft-90-second-evacuation/
               | 
               | The difference between 180s and 90s is 90s: if (e.g.) ~30
               | people out of ~350 passengers (<10%) take an extra 3
               | seconds each because they are not aware of their
               | surroundings, that time is eaten up.
               | 
               | Seconds matter.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | I think maybe you're under the impression that:
               | 
               | 1. Passengers on JL516 were not permitted to use their
               | phones during landing.
               | 
               | 2. I'm proposing that we start allowing them to use their
               | phones.
               | 
               | 3. If we did that then all 379 passengers would have died
               | [1] because evacuation would have taken longer than the
               | time before the plane was engulfed in flames [2]
               | 
               | Except #1 isn't the case: passengers were allowed to be
               | on their phones and were doing so. And so #2 isn't the
               | case either: I'm proposing maintaining the status quo.
               | 
               | And even if we had granted #1 and #2 I don't see how you
               | get #3 because even if the extra time were entirely eaten
               | up by 30 distracted passengers this wouldn't get you 100%
               | dead: people don't leave in a single batch determined by
               | the speed of the slowest person. There are multiple
               | parallel exits, and each exit operates serially.
               | 
               | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38841170
               | 
               | [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38842440
        
               | throw0101d wrote:
               | > _And even if we had granted #1 and #2 I don 't see how
               | you get #3 because even if the extra time were entirely
               | eaten up by 30 distracted passengers this wouldn't get
               | you 100% dead:_
               | 
               | You are right that it does not necessarily follow that
               | 100% would be dead. AC 797 had a flash fire after 90
               | seconds, and only about half the people died.
               | -\\_(tsu)_/-
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Canada_Flight_797
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | People keep pointing out to you that passengers were in
               | fact using their phones to record footage of the interior
               | of the plane (eg to let their friends/relatives know what
               | was going on in case they didn't make it). Of course
               | people are easily distracted by phones when they should
               | be paying attention to other things, but virtually all
               | people already in an emergency situation are fully
               | present unless they're injured or caring for an injured
               | person. I think you're underestimating people's ability
               | to multitask when they know it matters.
        
               | filleduchaos wrote:
               | Passengers _were_ using their phones during landing
               | (including at least one that posted footage from inside
               | the plane on social media), so...no?
               | 
               | Incredibly, people can walk and chew gum at the same
               | time. This includes the ability to refocus their
               | attention when they experience unusual events.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | You're allowed to use phones during landing; they don't
               | present much of a challenge for evacuation.
               | 
               | You're not allowed to use laptops or have the tray down.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | This thread was started with throw0101d saying "I think
               | forcing people to not have any distractions during take-
               | offs and landings is a good thing", and we've been
               | discussing how to weigh the inconvenience and boredom of
               | prohibiting distractions against the reduced risk of
               | death via more efficient evacuations.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | The idea of putting down your phone for an hour in total
               | being "too inconvenient" as people seemingly willingly
               | sign over their dignity for a $10 cheaper flight ticket
               | is.... uninspiring.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | It sounds like people vary a lot in their preferences?
               | 
               | For example, I wouldn't take a $10 cheaper flight which
               | prohibited using my phone, but I probably would take one
               | that gave me a 1" narrower seat.
        
               | filleduchaos wrote:
               | You're not allowed to use laptops or have the tray down
               | because those are active physical hazards even in fairly
               | routine landings not because of some nebulous idea of you
               | being "distracted".
        
               | serf wrote:
               | >Incredibly, people can walk and chew gum at the same
               | time. This includes the ability to refocus their
               | attention when they experience unusual events.
               | 
               | No. They can't. That 'refocus' you mention is proof of
               | that.
               | 
               | it's getting old having to say over and over again that
               | this isn't actually the case : humans switch contexts and
               | lose focus -- you're not as good at multi-tasking as you
               | think, nor is anyone.
               | 
               | So , people can walk _OR_ chew bubble gum , and if these
               | choose to they can pay contextual switching costs between
               | the two to make outside spectators believe that they can
               | do two things at once.
               | 
               | Don't fall for the ruse, there is a cost even if it's a
               | small one.
               | 
               | Similarly, in a disaster i'd rather be surrounded by fit
               | young soldiers without cell-phones -- alert and aware --
               | than I would be surrounded by the typical multi-variant
               | airliner crowd that must have their attention drug away
               | from the device by the sound of crunching metal.
               | 
               | It's _obvious_ to me that a group of alert and ready
               | people will outperform  'the other group' in an escape in
               | nearly every metric, i'd hope that the same would be
               | obvious to the other humans trying to escape fiery
               | wreckage alongside me.
               | 
               | [0]:
               | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7075496/
               | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_multitasking
        
               | JohnBooty wrote:
               | You seem _really_ certain that passengers would be so
               | wrapped up in their phones that they would be too
               | distracted to promptly realize... there was a collision
               | with another plane, causing their plane to split open and
               | burst into flames.
               | 
               | OK.
        
               | serf wrote:
               | That 'prompt realization' takes _actual time_ from an
               | escape when it doesn 't necessarily need to.
               | 
               | I have no problem with the idea that humans can re-
               | prioritize; but I do have a problem that people seem to
               | think that the re-prioritization effort comes for free,
               | instantly. We don't work that way as humans.
        
               | JohnBooty wrote:
               | There's phone footage from inside the burning plane, so
               | apparently your theories don't correspond with reality.
               | Always quite annoying when that happens. Been the death
               | of many a theory.                   people seem to think
               | that the re-prioritization effort          comes for
               | free, instantly
               | 
               | Here are the two biggest flaws in your thinking:
               | 
               | 1. You seem to be assuming the alternative to "using
               | one's phone during a landing" is some sort of highly
               | aware ready state. In reality it's probably bored
               | snoozing or half-snoozing. It's a red-eye flight after
               | all.
               | 
               | 2. You seem to be assuming that "evacuating a burning
               | plane" is some kind of split-second thing, like a
               | quicktime event in a video game. In reality, at least for
               | this incident, there was a span of a significant number
               | of seconds between "impact" and "plane slows down enough
               | for emergency slides to extend and evacuation to begin."
               | 30, maybe 60 seconds.... I'm not sure, but there was no
               | real positive action for a passenger to take during that
               | time. Shifting attention away from one's phone certainly
               | has a nonzero time cost, but not remotely comparable to
               | the time it took for the plane to come to a full stop.
               | 
               | Again, you're dealing in hypotheticals, while the actual
               | reality of this incident (phones in use, orderly exit
               | achieved, all lives saved) contradicts whatever it is you
               | are imagining.
        
             | Dalewyn wrote:
             | I once heard a wise doctor say that even if the chance of
             | survival for a medical operation is either 10% or 90%, the
             | practical chance the patient is battling is always 50%
             | because he either lives or dies from that operation.
             | 
             | Likewise, the chance of someone being in an aviation
             | accident is close to nil (you're more likely to be in a car
             | accident), but _you_ are either going to be in an aviation
             | accident or not (a 50% chance) and you 're going to be
             | either dead or alive from it (a 50% chance).
             | 
             | So you might as well at least not have your epitaph be
             | "Killed by some bozo in the aisle TikToking" if you do end
             | up dying.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | _> even if the chance of survival for a medical operation
               | is either 10% or 90%, the practical chance the patient is
               | battling is always 50% because he either lives or dies
               | from that operation_
               | 
               | I think this is rarely a productive way to think about
               | it. For example, the chance that I might die in the next
               | year is somewhere between 0% and 100%, and actuarial
               | tables put it somewhere around 0.3%. [1] Should I refrain
               | from having a kid because I'd have a "50% chance" of
               | leaving them without a dad before they turned 1?
               | 
               | [1] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
        
               | ant6n wrote:
               | Well, using this logic, every day you have a 50% chance
               | of dying, since you either die or you don't. Or perhaps
               | every second you have a 50% chance of dying.
               | 
               | ...obviously this "math" doesn't quite work out.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | I mean, it clearly doesn't work if taken to be literal
               | probabilities. But I think it also doesn't work as a more
               | metaphorical guide to life?
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | It clearly does not work in any circumstances. We over-
               | emphasise the likelihood of rare events already, saying
               | that something has even odds just because it is
               | conceivable that it could happen is completely useless.
               | 
               | Which is not to say that you should not plan for
               | extremely rare events, but you certainly should not make
               | decisions assuming they are likely to happen.
        
               | snapcaster wrote:
               | I think you're maybe missing the point. My understanding
               | would be something like:
               | 
               | My chances of being killed by a shark is basically 0%.
               | But, if I'm in a shark cage surrounded by sharks the idea
               | that some global probability is 0% isn't relevant.
               | Something like that?
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | If I'm in a shark cage then the probability that matters
               | is conditional on being in a shark cage, sure. And it
               | should certainly be higher than the global probability.
               | But I don't see how this connects to saying that anything
               | that can go two ways is 50-50? ("always 50% because he
               | either lives or dies from that operation")
        
               | spywaregorilla wrote:
               | There's a 50% chance that this doctor failed probability
        
               | Dalewyn wrote:
               | I recall the original context was that telling a patient
               | to not worry because the chance of success is high isn't
               | actually helpful, because the objective argument doesn't
               | take into account the patient's personal perspective.
               | 
               | I've since extrapolated that to meaning that objective
               | measures cannot always tell or respect the whole story,
               | because personal perspectives can bowdlerize everything
               | down to life or death or a 50% chance.
               | 
               | To put it another way: Telling someone they have a
               | negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is
               | worthless comfort if they end up in one.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | > Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being
               | in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end
               | up in one.
               | 
               | It's significant comfort in all those flights where no
               | crashes occur, and for most of the time up to and during
               | those that do end in crashes.
               | 
               | Anyone who really believes they are about to embark on an
               | activity having a 0.5 probability of killing them should
               | put their affairs in order, but then, by the same
               | reasoning, there's a 0.5 probability of dying while doing
               | that!
               | 
               | I believe the fallacy here is using an uninformative
               | uniform prior when a much better, empirically-verified
               | one is available.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > To put it another way: Telling someone they have a
               | negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is
               | worthless comfort if they end up in one.
               | 
               | Sure. It's also callous and insensitive, which is why we
               | don't tend to do that. But saying to the vast majority
               | who are never going to experience a plane crash (a number
               | larger than the number of victims by a few orders of
               | magnitude) that it's a coin toss is at least not very
               | smart.
        
               | staticman2 wrote:
               | >because the objective argument doesn't take into account
               | the patient's personal perspective.
               | 
               | Suppose a friend is afraid of crossing the street. Would
               | it be more helpful from a personal perspective POV to
               | tell your friend the odds of being hit by a car, or to
               | make up the fact that you are just as likely to die today
               | crossing that street as not dying? Because the latter
               | strikes me as unhelpful from either an objective
               | perspective or a personal perspective.
        
               | tjungblut wrote:
               | I had a dentist explain to me that my lip could go numb
               | with a 50% chance after my wisdom teeth removal with that
               | exact explanation just two minutes before the surgery. I
               | was infuriated, turns out I was on the lucky side of her
               | coin.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | I could be wrong, but I really don't think permanent loss
               | of sensitivity is anywhere that high. Though it sounds
               | low for temporary loss, but then it goes away after a
               | couple of hours or so.
        
               | throw0101d wrote:
               | Cue 50-50 scene from the movie _The Naked Gun_ :
               | 
               | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLLbuyWBCzQ
        
               | someplaceguy wrote:
               | Also relevant (hilarious movie btw):
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrezGdru6TQ&t=20s
               | 
               | And an analysis of the scene:
               | https://puzzlewocky.com/fallacies/the-50-50-fallacy/
        
               | mgdlbp wrote:
               | (I don't think that's what most mean when they say
               | 'chance', but I get what you mean ;) It's similar to
               | realizing how seating choice radically alters your (very
               | small) chance of death by train crash.
               | 
               | I was going to say 'chance of death on that day' but
               | apparently rail transport is remarkably safe and in
               | micromorts, you're as likely to die in one day at 20
               | years of age as in 10000 km by rail, or (only!) 1600 km
               | by air.
               | 
               | Now, it appears that 1600 km is also nearly the distance
               | of the average passenger flight (a disappointly difficult
               | datum to discover on the internet in 2024). Is this a
               | counterpart to the reassuring quips comparing the chances
               | of death by lightning: that boarding a plane doubles your
               | chances of dying that day?
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort#Travel
        
               | tracerbulletx wrote:
               | This is very silly. There are much better ways to express
               | the idea that a binomial distribution is different than a
               | multinomial or continuous one than to make up fake
               | statistics.
        
               | D-Coder wrote:
               | By that logic, there's a 50/50 chance the sun will come
               | up tomorrow.
        
             | morsch wrote:
             | The number of fatalities and injuries seems minuscule
             | because it's normalised over distance traveled.
             | 
             | This makes sense, because air travel is the only way to
             | make voyages over this distance. But it also _doesn 't_
             | make sense for the same reason -- it's stupid to compare a
             | 6000 mile holiday flight with a 6000 mile holiday road
             | trip, because people don't routinely make those. You're
             | still more likely to get injured on an eight hour car ride
             | than on an eight hour flight, but the difference isn't a
             | factor 600.
             | 
             | In much the same way, air travel is also arguably
             | moderately efficient in terms of CO2 per mile, except that
             | it's also a super easy way -- in fact, practically the only
             | way -- to accrue tens of thousands of miles every year, so
             | the efficiency is kind of irrelevant.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | I know people who are already at the "if driving takes
               | less than 8 hours, I'd rather drive than fly" level.
               | Every additional inconvenience (or psychological
               | impediment) added to the safest mode of long-distance
               | travel has a risk of decreasing overall safety.
               | 
               | It's not particularly relevant to an international flight
               | into Japan, but the extent to which increasing
               | annoyance/instilling fear of airline passengers causing
               | people to drive instead must be weighed against the small
               | safety benefit resulting from a policy of telling
               | passengers "we think this phase of flight contains the
               | most highly concentrated risk, so for the next 15
               | minutes, please put away all of your distractions,
               | prepare for a possible crash, and try not to think about
               | the fact that we could turn this aircraft into a
               | tumbling, burning ball of wreckage at any moment."
               | 
               | Something similar was the primary justification to
               | support the continuation of "infant in arms" travel by
               | passengers under the age of 2, with an expected 60:1
               | ratio of lives that would be lost if infants were
               | required to occupy ticketed seats vs being carried in
               | arms.
               | 
               | https://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Documents/child_safety-
               | Clau...
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | I once traveled for business from Salt Lake City to Fort
               | Collins, Colorado.
               | 
               | 1/2 hour to the airport + get to the airport 2 hours
               | before flight + 1 hour direct flight to Denver + 1/2 hour
               | to deplane + 1/2 hour to get bags + 1/2 hour to get
               | rental car + 1 hour drive to Fort Collins. Total 6 hours.
               | Seems like it actually totalled 7 but I don't remember
               | where the extra time was.
               | 
               | Versus 7 hours drive time from Salt Lake to Fort Collins.
               | 
               | And if two people are going, you only drive one car, but
               | you buy two plane tickets.
               | 
               | And my car has more legroom than a coach seat.
               | 
               | So, yes, flying is safer per mile, but the "under 8
               | hours" crowd also have a point...
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | I pretty much have gotten to where I only fly if driving
               | is impossible (e.g. crossing an ocean).
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | That's me. But for totally different reasons. I'm a 4-5
               | hour round trip by car to the nearest airport that
               | actually flys anywhere. So unless it's more than about a
               | 8-10 hour drive, it's faster (and way cheaper) to drive
               | than fly.
        
               | gambiting wrote:
               | We literally decided to drive from UK to Poland this
               | year(12 hour overnight ferry + another 12 hours of
               | driving) instead of flying, because we hate Christmas
               | flying so much, it's always a shit show, we always end up
               | ill because everyone is coughing, at least with driving
               | we can take it at our own pace - we want to stop, we
               | stop.
        
               | d1sxeyes wrote:
               | For other people who might not have followed completely:
               | the NTAB don't say (explicitly) that forcing children to
               | occupy a seat of their own would result in 60 times as
               | many deaths. They estimated the risk of lap infant deaths
               | as 1 every 10 years, and then they estimated that if the
               | cost of travel increased for families, enough families
               | would instead choose to drive that 60 infants would die
               | in road accidents in that same 10 year period.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Thanks for posting that. It was perfectly clear in my
               | head, but I really made a hash of describing it when
               | summarizing it my post upthread.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | Similar to the Jevons Paradox, where increases in energy
               | efficiency often lead to greater overall consumption, as
               | the higher efficiency broadens the scope of the activity.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
        
               | jrockway wrote:
               | The statistics are also available as "per passenger-
               | hour", which eliminates the speed factor. An 8 hour road
               | trip is reasonable. An 8 hour flight is on the longer
               | side.
        
               | ta1243 wrote:
               | An 8 hour flight is a normal intercontinental flight, not
               | even particularly long (London - New
               | York/Delhi/Nairobi/Dubai sort of distance). Longer
               | flights like London-LA/Singapore/Joburg/Tokyo are
               | perfectly normal, or reasonable.
               | 
               | I would rarely do 8 hours driving in a single day, let
               | alone 12. Certainly couldn't do that for work, would be
               | massively against policy.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | And for anyone who remembers the electronics during takeoff
             | and landing ban once cell phones became common it was a
             | massive hassle for flight attendants as many passengers
             | routinely ignored instructions.
        
               | ryandrake wrote:
               | Never really understood this "we can't enforce the rules
               | because people routinely ignore the rules" attitude. This
               | should be dead simple on an airplane, where the airline
               | knows who each passenger is by seat. So have one flight
               | attendant make one pass down the aisle warning everyone
               | to put away their phones, then have another one follow a
               | minute or so later just making note of which seats are
               | still using their phones. No-fly-list them all later.
               | After this policy became known, people would be strongly
               | incentivized to get with the program.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _No-fly-list them all later_
               | 
               | Then the airline lays off those people because nobody
               | wants to fly.
        
               | ghshephard wrote:
               | Even when there was a rule that cell-phones were supposed
               | to be turned off, studies showed that 20-25% of cell
               | phones were still active (Possibly forgotten in pockets)
               | - wasting time, energy, traveler patience, on something
               | that was _entirely_ theater (I don 't believe there was
               | ever a _single_ incident associated with an active cell
               | phone - which makes sense given the 10s of thousands per
               | day that were powered on during takeoff) - seems like the
               | worst possible tradeoff ever. The  "No cell phone use
               | during takeoff" or "No mobile phone use _during flight_ "
               | (China Air used to do that - very, very annoying) -
               | bureaucracy flex just because the could.
        
               | ryandrake wrote:
               | I think the "no cellphones" rule is about minimizing
               | distractions during critical phases of flight, not
               | because a phone's radio is going to do damage to the
               | aircraft. So a phone on but sitting in someone's bag is
               | not the end of the world.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _the "no cellphones" rule is about minimizing
               | distractions during critical phases of flight, not
               | because a phone's radio is going to do damage to the
               | aircraft_
               | 
               | The cell-phone "ban was put in place because of potential
               | interference to wireless networks on the ground" [1]. The
               | distraction argument started making its rounds after the
               | interference hypothesis was debunked.
               | 
               | [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20120110081053/http://www
               | .fcc.go...
        
               | ta1243 wrote:
               | > I think the "no cellphones" rule is about minimizing
               | distractions during critical phases of flight
               | 
               | Along with the "no newspapers" rule? And no sleeping?
        
               | mahkeiro wrote:
               | No distraction? Do you need sub 500ms response time? I'm
               | pretty sure that even someone watching a movie with noise
               | canceling earphones was aware of an issue just because of
               | physics...
        
           | weinzierl wrote:
           | Even more so: Keeping the shades open could have really made
           | a significant difference in this case, because it could have
           | helped the flight attendants to quickly determine the exits
           | that are safe.
        
             | traceroute66 wrote:
             | > it could have helped the flight attendants to quickly
             | determine the exits that are safe.
             | 
             | For obvious reasons, ordering the evacuation, in
             | conjunction with criteria such as which side and which
             | doors is the Captain's job, or if the Captain is
             | incapacitated, the First Officer. They will have access to
             | far more data than the cabin crew will (e.g. whether the
             | engines are safely shut down, circumstances on the ground
             | thanks to radio contact etc.).
             | 
             | The Cabin Crew will not make the decision themselves unless
             | they have been unable to establish contact with the cockpit
             | (i.e. both flight crew incapacitated). In normal
             | circumstances the Cabin Crew are only there to action the
             | Flight Crew's orders.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | This is not at all obvious. The pilots can't look
               | backwards and don't have eyes in the cabin. There have
               | been cases of engine fires and failures where the pilots
               | had to go into the passenger cabin to examine the damage.
               | 
               | Communication is key, but comms might have been down,
               | too. In cases like this the cabin crew have to be
               | prepared to initiate an evacuation on their own, and they
               | have to be prepared to choose which doors to use.
        
               | traceroute66 wrote:
               | > the cabin crew have to be prepared to initiate an
               | evacuation on their own
               | 
               | Re-read my post, because your conclusion is saying
               | exactly what I already said with your words "be prepared
               | to".
               | 
               | To repeat what I said, but in simpler terms:
               | 
               | In an ideal world, the Flight Crew have the
               | responsibility for ordering evacuation and the associated
               | parameters. End of story, no argument.
               | 
               |  _BUT_ there is a well rehearsed, well practiced,
               | protocol which surrounds this !
               | 
               | So, at one extreme, if the Cabin Crew cannot communicate
               | with the Flight Deck, then the decision is clearly
               | theirs.
               | 
               | But before the extreme, we have the obvious scenario ....
               | Cabin Crew act as additional eyes and ears for Flight
               | Crew.
               | 
               |  _BUT_ in this scenario we are back to my main point ...
               | the buck stops at the Captain to make the decision !!!
               | The Cabin Crew are telling the Captain what they see, its
               | ultimately his call.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | You wrote:
               | 
               | > They will have access to far more data than the cabin
               | crew will (e.g. whether the engines are safely shut down,
               | circumstances on the ground thanks to radio contact
               | etc.).
               | 
               | This is not remotely guaranteed. It would be more
               | accurate to say that the pilots will have access to
               | information that the cabin crew don't have access to and
               | vice versa. If the cabin crew sees that the plane has
               | stopped, there's a fire on board, and instructions are
               | not forthcoming from the pilots, the cabin crew
               | absolutely must initiate an evacuation sua sponte. Heck,
               | if the cabin crew won't do it then the passengers might.
               | People can and do freeze in the face of emergencies. When
               | you have a fire on board all bets are off, and someone
               | had better step up and begin the evacuation -- better
               | that it all be orderly than not, but also better that it
               | happen at all than not.
        
               | ta1243 wrote:
               | If the Captain says "evacuate from all doors on port
               | side", yet the FA sees flames outside the door on the
               | port side, the FA does not evacuate through those flames
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | Right! In a chaotic situation, the idea of hierarchy goes
               | out the window. It is essential that all act rationally
               | as much as possible and make the best decisions that they
               | can with what information is available to them. And it is
               | essential that all staff (flight crew, cabin crew) act
               | with celerity as well to avoid panic among the
               | passengers. Because if the passengers are left on their
               | own then conflicts are more likely to arise just merely
               | on account of the number of passengers being large, and
               | conflicts in such a situation are very likely to be
               | deadly.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | Cabin crew play a critical role in informing the flight
               | deck of external conditions especially fire that would
               | preclude use of specific exits in an evacuation.
        
               | weinzierl wrote:
               | Makes sense, but why do we have to open the shades during
               | take-off and landing? It's a honest question, I always
               | heard in case of emergency for the personnel being able
               | to see all sides, but if that's not it, what is it?
        
               | sitharus wrote:
               | It is so the flight attendants can see outside, and also
               | so the passengers' eyes are adapted to outside light in
               | case of an evacuation. You don't want people hesitating
               | on the slides because they can't see.
        
               | IndrekR wrote:
               | Cabin crew are also eyes for the flight crew. Relevant
               | discussion about the Shatner's seat:
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13824985
        
             | anigbrowl wrote:
             | The shades were open, or at least people quickly opened
             | them (based on cellphone video from inside the plane).
        
         | onetimeuse92304 wrote:
         | I think it helped a lot that the plane was moving and thanks to
         | this left the initial fireball behind it. It was also landing
         | which means it had much less fuel to begin with.
        
         | gureddio wrote:
         | VAS Aviation has put the audio up
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fItu5qM7QfE
        
           | playingalong wrote:
           | That's for what happened after the collision, not what led to
           | it.
        
         | brunohaid wrote:
         | Re clearance/cause: VASA
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fItu5qM7QfE also couldn't make
         | it out, but it sounds like the Coast Guard Dash 8 got a not
         | really perfect taxi instruction (neither "hold short" nor "line
         | up and wait") to one of the other C* intersections leading onto
         | 34R while a Delta flight occupied C1, but entered the runway
         | anyway. The A350 got a proper clearance it read back correctly.
         | 
         | Also looks like all C hold short lines have embedded guard
         | lights - ie the stop "bar" on the way to the runway should have
         | been flashing brightly.
         | 
         | *
         | https://www.anaas.ana-g.com/img/business/general_aviation/pd...
        
           | BorgHunter wrote:
           | Whether it was perfect or not, there are only a few
           | words/phrases that allow an aircraft to cross the hold short
           | bars at an airport with an active control tower. "Cross",
           | "line up and wait", and "cleared for takeoff" are pretty much
           | it. Runway incursions are very dangerous, as this incident
           | shows, and pilots must be very sure they have clearance
           | before entering a runway. If anything is ambiguous in an
           | instruction, pilots are trained to ask ATC for confirmation
           | before proceeding.
           | 
           | It's also possible that there was more ATC communication that
           | was not recorded. LiveATC comes from feeds provided by
           | volunteers, whose receivers may be some distance from the
           | airport and which may not receive signals 100% reliably. The
           | investigators will have access to the official recordings
           | made by JCAB (the Japanese aviation authorities).
        
             | HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
             | Is "line up and wait" really the new approved terminology?
             | Way back when I was a PP student, it was "taxi into
             | position runway XX and hold. Acknowledge hold."
             | 
             | Line up and wait sounds like something you tell
             | preschoolers to do :-)
        
               | rmk wrote:
               | Line up and wait (meaning, on the runway, prior to actual
               | takeoff clearance) is very common during busy periods.
               | This is in America.
        
               | stevehawk wrote:
               | "Line up and wait" is, historically, the ICAO
               | phraseology, which the FAA adopted (and ditched the "taxi
               | into position and talk for thirty more seconds and block
               | comms" phrase). The phrase adoption went into effect Oct
               | 2010 in the States.
        
               | hn8305823 wrote:
               | "position and hold" was the old phraseology in the US. It
               | changed to "line up and wait" on 2010/09/30 to match ICAO
               | standards and because "hold (on the runway)" might be
               | confused with "hold short (of a runway/taxiway), or "hold
               | position (wherever you are now)".
               | 
               | https://www.faa.gov/airports/runway_safety/resources/luaw
        
               | jamesharding wrote:
               | "Line up and wait" is indeed correct!
               | 
               | https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/aim_h
               | tml...
        
             | brunohaid wrote:
             | Absolutely right!
             | 
             | Point was that if the taxi clearance didn't include "hold
             | (short of 34R)" it might be seen as contributing factor in
             | line with ICAO[1] or FAA recommendations.
             | 
             | Also quite terrifying that, given all the equipment at
             | Haneda and according to
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NbVdIoJsHY, around 2:45,
             | with taxi lights fully visible at 2:53, the DH8 was lined
             | up on the runway for more than a minute before being run
             | over by the A350.
             | 
             | But as you say, preliminary report should already have a
             | clear timeline of the tower tapes.
             | 
             | 1: https://www.icao.int/safety/runwaysafety/documents%20and
             | %20t...
        
             | epolanski wrote:
             | > and pilots must be very sure they have clearance before
             | entering a runway
             | 
             | The word "clearance" is used uniquely in the context of
             | landing and departing exactly to avoid mistakes and has to
             | be repeated again by the aircraft before ATC confirms.
        
               | lxgr wrote:
               | True in terms of phraseology (i.e. the actual word is not
               | used in voice ATC communications), but all ATC
               | instructions are generally referred to as clearances.
        
         | throw0101d wrote:
         | > https://archive.liveatc.net/rjtt/RJTT-Twr-TCA-
         | Jan-02-2024-08... _if someone wants to try and find them
         | (timestamps towards end of url come in 30 minute increments)._
         | 
         | 13:13 JL516 continue approach. 14:53 landing clearance. 15:01
         | readback. 15:13 Japan Coast Guard JA772A taxi instructions.
         | 17:35 fire reported on 34R.
         | 
         | * Via: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/35868205-post57.html
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Ok, we merged the comments into the submission of the
         | avherald.com article. Thanks!
        
         | petee wrote:
         | I don't see anywhere indicating they landed on top of the other
         | plane
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | > Looks like trading long term flammability for initial
         | rigidity lived up to the design intent.
         | 
         | What if a plane catches fire in midair?
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | It crashes? But honestly, how would that happen? And close
           | enough to a landing strip to land evacuate the plane?
        
             | itishappy wrote:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Canada_Flight_797
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | We talk about the flamability difference between a
               | carbon-composite and aluminium hull design. That fire had
               | what, almost 20 minutes to burn before the cabin flashed?
        
               | itishappy wrote:
               | Yup. I'm far from an authority on the matter (just
               | learned about the Air Canada flight further up the thread
               | and thought it was relevant), but I'd guess this supports
               | the "it crashes" hypothesis.
        
         | ramesh31 wrote:
         | >Crazy how well the carbon fiber A350 held up given that it
         | seems to have landed pretty much directly on a Dash 8 (RIP
         | Coast Guard team). Looks like trading long term flammability
         | for initial rigidity lived up to the design intent.
         | 
         | This will be the real story to come out of the incident. It was
         | still an open question as to whether composite airframes were a
         | good idea for civil aviation due to the fire risk. I imagine
         | Airbus marketing teams started popping champagne corks the
         | moment all passengers were safely accounted for.
        
         | wannacboatmovie wrote:
         | > Excellent evacuation job
         | 
         | This couldn't be further from the truth. From the facts I've
         | read, this was handled terribly. There was confusion and no
         | evacuation was ordered over the PA. The passengers managed it
         | themselves. It took the firefighters over six minutes to
         | respond to the site of the burning aircraft. In the US and
         | Europe this would be unheard of.
         | 
         | The only reason hundreds of people are not dead is directly
         | attributable to the Japanese being an overly polite and orderly
         | culture.
         | 
         | If this were China or elsewhere in Asia there would be hundreds
         | of people dead right now, trampled over in the chaos, while the
         | remaining hundred or so survivors would be exiting with their
         | roll-aboard bags in tow.
        
       | yzydserd wrote:
       | Not sure why the link is a UK Tabloid.
       | 
       | Japan's national broadcaster has a video of the moment of impact.
       | 
       | Impact: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240102_302/
       | 
       | All ~400 airbus passengers safe.
       | 
       | Coastguard plane in earthquake relief efforts hit airbus (see
       | video). 5 of 6 passengers unaccounted for.
        
         | pmontra wrote:
         | A longer video (still in English) at
         | https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240102_304/
        
         | aidog wrote:
         | 5 people dead aboard the coast guard plane that was responding
         | to yesterdays earthquake. The airbus is still on fire
         | 
         | https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240102/k10014307191000.ht...
        
       | epolanski wrote:
       | I'll speculate:
       | 
       | this looks like textbook runway invasion where miscommunication
       | leads to two different aircrafts being allowed on a runway at the
       | same time.
       | 
       | Reminds me of LATAM 2213, which led to the very first Airbus 320
       | neo being written off [1].
       | 
       | Essentially, clearance to enter a runway has to be expressively
       | given and confirmed in non-ubiquitous language ("Flight ABC
       | requesting clearance to enter runway 01").
       | 
       | Yet LATAM incident shows how often emergency services are often
       | unaccustomed to thorough communication (after all they do these
       | procedures much more rarely)
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LATAM_Airlines_Per%C3%BA_Fligh...
        
         | konschubert wrote:
         | it is crazy to me that all of this still relies on humans
         | giving verbal clearance over radio.
         | 
         | Shouldn't there be a universal standard to communicate
         | clearances to the computer systems of the airplanes and other
         | runway vehicles? And shouldn't there be a small, well-tested
         | core system that makes sure clearance never conflicts?
         | 
         | How on earth does all this still depend on skilled individuals
         | not making a mistake?
         | 
         | We got over this in other domains long ago.
        
           | bamboozled wrote:
           | Maybe there is a good reason for it ? Wait for the answer
           | before giving them judgment.
           | 
           | You might be right, but there might be a valid answer.
        
           | tonmoy wrote:
           | I doubt your "other domains" are as safe and reliable as the
           | aviation industry. An automated system may be possible to
           | make, but will require a huge undertaking to bring even close
           | to the current safety standards, and would introduce its own
           | safety issues
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | If I step into the elevator door, it doesn't squash me and
             | the elevator won't move.
        
               | drtgh wrote:
               | In the past six years there was some accidents just in
               | the EU, at least one decapitation happened in the
               | elevator of an hospital what I know. Or in the city were
               | I live, a fail in a badly lubricated brake when an old
               | person was entering (open door) sent the elevator to the
               | top, just a few weeks after passing the monthly
               | -supposed- maintenance service of the manufacturer.
               | 
               | The maintenance seriousness in aviation is superior to an
               | elevator, but even like that, the last human layer
               | decision should not be avoided.
               | 
               | For example, bad behaving sensor feeding a fin balancing
               | algorithm introduced by the manufacturer to avoid the
               | need to redesign an unbalanced plane to accommodate
               | larger motors it was designed for, and pilots unable to
               | make the plane follow their commanding due such algorithm
               | blind decisions priority... has crashed planes.
        
               | porkbeer wrote:
               | Usually. Liveleak will show hundreds of exceptions
               | however.
        
               | pi-e-sigma wrote:
               | Liveleak was shut down more than 2 years ago
        
               | lxgr wrote:
               | An elevator is many orders of magnitude less complex than
               | an airport, though.
               | 
               | Total automation can be done quite safely in some
               | domains. Between that and a completely manual/human-
               | operated system lies the area of augmentation, which can
               | both be a boon to safety if done correctly, or deadly if
               | it leads to automation complacency or false expectations
               | around the types of situations it can successfully
               | handle.
        
           | epolanski wrote:
           | I have thought the same multiple times.
           | 
           | I think the problem might not be super simple to solve
           | through updating vehicles.
           | 
           | You need to update infrastructure globally (and thus you need
           | coordination between multiple different agencies), then you
           | need to implement the solution at both airport and vehicles
           | level.
           | 
           | That's a lot of work. In case of LATAM the Airbus hit a fire
           | truck (which would've too required such a solution). In case
           | of the Linate air disaster, such technology would've had to
           | be implemented on a very small Cessna Citation model.
           | 
           | Maybe the updates need to be implemented at the airport level
           | alone, quickly signaling controllers of possible
           | violations/conflicts, and in fact most major airports have
           | both ground radars and clear ground signals to avoid these
           | incidents.
           | 
           | But it's still impossible to avoid these issues as these
           | errors may happen in a matter of very few seconds thus not
           | giving enough time to react to any of the involved parties.
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | You have to define a universal standard and then gradually
             | upgrade into it.
             | 
             | You make it mandatory in new vehicles and for airports
             | above a certain size.
             | 
             | In 20 years, you can make it mandatory for all vehicles.
             | 
             | I understand that these things take time.
        
           | hef19898 wrote:
           | And yet, aviation is one of the safest industries mankind
           | ever built. It seems those solution in place are actually
           | pretty good.
           | 
           | Edit: Something I try to take to heart, if I don't have
           | domain knowledge, I assume that whatever easy solution I can
           | think of either was already discarded for valid reasons I
           | don't know nor understand or is already implemented without
           | me knowing about it. Generally, people working in a
           | particular field tend to be competent in that field, just
           | assuke that more often than not they know what they are
           | doing.
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | We got very good at doing aviation safety in a certain way.
             | The people who work in aviation are extremely skilled at
             | doing safety in a certain way.
             | 
             | This is usually true for any domain. People are very
             | experienced and extremely skilled at doing things within a
             | certain framework.
             | 
             | It can still be true that there is a better way. I realise
             | it's hard to be on par with a century of aviation safety
             | experience, even if the new approach is better. That's why
             | you need a gradual transition that focuses on enhancement
             | rather than replacement
        
           | resolutebat wrote:
           | It's rarely that straightforward: most all runway collisions
           | involve ATC giving correct instructions, but the crew
           | mishears them, misunderstands them, hears them correctly but
           | accidentally goes to the wrong runway/taxiway, etc etc. And
           | there's usually complicating factors like terrible weather,
           | diversions to unfamiliar airports etc in the mix as well.
           | What remains the world's worst single aviation disaster in
           | Tenerife checked pretty much all these boxes.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenerife_airport_disaster
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Airliner_accidents_an.
           | ..
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | All of which would be prevented if the plane refused to
             | steer onto a runway that it knows is occupied.
             | 
             | The ATC computer should talk to the plane computer.
        
               | resolutebat wrote:
               | Airplane taxiing is manual. ATC can tell the plane to use
               | runway A, and the plane can check that A is free, but
               | neither will stop the pilot from accidentally steering
               | into runway B.
        
               | Aeolun wrote:
               | There's nothing preventing airplanes from knowing the
               | coordinates of every runway in the world and working out
               | the truth using GPS though.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | Modern passenger airplanes absolutely do have runway
               | maps.
        
               | lxgr wrote:
               | This would elevate the impact of GPS spoofing from a
               | minor or major [1] nuisance to a significant terrorism
               | threat.
               | 
               | [1] https://ops.group/blog/new-gps-spoofing-incident-
               | shows-how-i...
        
               | LightBug1 wrote:
               | Yeah, throw in different languages and accents and all
               | kinds of variations and ... I tend to agree.
        
               | epolanski wrote:
               | > The ATC computer should talk to the plane computer.
               | 
               | Not as simple:
               | 
               | 1) You need to implement it for very small airplanes too,
               | which is far from easy. In the Linate air disaster a
               | small Cessna Citation invaded the runtime due to fog and
               | misscomunication.
               | 
               | 2) You need to implement it for ground vehicles too, as
               | in the LATAM example it was a fire truck that invaded the
               | runtime.
               | 
               | 3) You need A LOT of infrastructural update.
               | 
               | 4) Even if you had computers talking to computers, this
               | may still be far from enough to avoid collisions, as
               | those mistakes are often a matter of seconds (as in the
               | both accidents quoted before).
               | 
               | 5) Automation brings its own issues. One of them is
               | complacency where attention levels unavoidably get lower
               | as reliance on automation increases. In turn complacency
               | can make runways more prone to such incidents in case of
               | malfunctions/bugs.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | You can have this as an additional safety layer.
               | 
               | You don't need to update everything at once.
               | 
               | If anything is able to react within seconds, it's a
               | computer.
        
               | epolanski wrote:
               | I think you might be way underestimating number 5.
               | 
               | While on the first hand your point sounds very
               | reasonable, in practice it may have more adverse effects
               | than we may think and make the whole system more unsafe.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | I guess the question is if you think the current system
               | is good enough.
               | 
               | The next big crash will change people's minds on this.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | No, the question is what authorities and regulators
               | conclude, after this incident is properly investigated,
               | regarding improvements and risk mitigation measures have
               | to be put in place. Aerospace regulations are written in
               | blood, and almost-blood, not in public outcry.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | Regulators are people too
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Last time I checked, in deed they are. For the most part.
        
               | YPPH wrote:
               | It's hard to know what that is. TCAS is a great example
               | of an obvious solution to mid-air collisions - two
               | devices seamlessly negotiate for one plane to go up, the
               | other to go down.
               | 
               | One I can think of is an electronic runway "lock". ATC
               | mark the runway as locked to a particular aircraft. The
               | landing aircraft checks at minimums whether if the runway
               | is locked to any other aircraft. It's harder to know how
               | to prevent incursions at ground level, but it could be a
               | beacon near the runway threshold and intersecting
               | taxiways, flashing a warning in the cockpit of the taxing
               | aircraft if an aircraft on final holds the lock. A pilot
               | could still disregard it. Sometimes two planes can share
               | the same runway, such as a plane lining up while another
               | vacates, which adds further problems.
               | 
               | I'm not aware of any system like this.
        
               | tjohns wrote:
               | Runway Status Lights (RWSL) are close to what you're
               | describing. If surface surveillance radar detects that a
               | runway is occupied, it turns on red warning lights at the
               | runway approach end and at the hold-short bars.
               | 
               | The nice thing is that the entire system is ground-based,
               | no additional equipment needed in the aircraft.
               | 
               | However, it's complicated/expensive, so only a handful of
               | airports have it installed.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runway_status_lights
        
               | NBJack wrote:
               | This is a gross oversimplification.
               | 
               | Yes, in this case, you do need to update everything at
               | once. At least for a given aiport. All it takes is one
               | plane, helicopter, fire truck, or baggage transport
               | vehicle to screw with the assumptions of the system and
               | jeopardize safety.
               | 
               | No, computers aren't necessarily faster, assuming we want
               | to achieve autonomy on the ground. Note that the average
               | human reaction time to visual stimulus is about 250ms.
               | Achieving this on a plane would require a great deal of
               | cameras and sensors that would not only need to stay
               | clean, but capable of withstanding pressure changes, high
               | velocity winds, the occasional unfortunate airborne
               | debris, etc. Then there is the processing power to both
               | process each input in real-time (per plane) and train it
               | on real-world data to recognize a variety of scenarios to
               | act upon (per model and perhaps configuration; AA alone
               | has about 11 active aircraft types across 953 planes).
               | Contrast this with Tesla's investment for approximately 6
               | models. [1]
               | 
               | Achievable? Sure. Cost-effective and sustainable with
               | current tech? Doubtful.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.theregister.com/2023/07/21/tesla_dojo_spe
               | nding/#....
        
               | Dalewyn wrote:
               | The absolute worst thing is for an aircraft to refuse
               | control input from the pilots, regardless their state of
               | informedness. Lest we forget, we saw what happens when
               | computers take priority over pilots thanks to 737 MAX
               | MCAS.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | Okay, so let's add an override.
        
               | alphabettsy wrote:
               | That system had an override didn't it, just wasn't well
               | known?
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | Then let's make it obvious and include it in the
               | training.
        
               | xcdzvyn wrote:
               | This exists.
               | 
               | - https://skybrary.aero/articles/runway-awareness-and-
               | advisory...
               | 
               | - https://skybrary.aero/articles/autonomous-runway-
               | incursion-w...
        
           | YPPH wrote:
           | Pilots are accustomed to the immediacy of voice
           | communication, which any electronic system will struggle to
           | replicate. More sophisticated radio than simplex VHF has too
           | many variables, and agreeing on an international standard
           | would be challenging.
           | 
           | There have been some developments of a replacement of, or at
           | least a supplement to, simplex radio. But none are as cheap,
           | quick and reliable as verbal communications with readback.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controller%E2%80%93pilot_data_.
           | ..
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | "We've always done it like this" will no longer be a good
             | argument when one of the increasing number of near misses
             | turns into an accident.
        
               | YPPH wrote:
               | Assuming (1) the replacement is a better solution, and
               | (2) it is feasible to retrofit every aircraft in the
               | world and switch everyone over to it.
               | 
               | Just in relation to (2), I can't really think of anything
               | worse than having two communication systems on operation
               | at the one airport - everyone must be using the same
               | system.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | You can make it an incremental upgrade that adds an
               | additional safety layer, at least until all vehicles are
               | updated in 30 years.
        
               | hindsightbias wrote:
               | The average age of general aviation aircraft is well over
               | 30 years old.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | Well, then let's start
        
           | pm3003 wrote:
           | I worked in software in a domain vaguely related to ATC, and
           | I've heard a few years ago that even sampling the voice
           | commands (and routing them as VoIP) is problematic , as
           | altering the signal through sampling and encoding can go
           | against regulations. I don't remember the details though.
           | 
           | It was in a project related to ATC and area control / FIR
           | services backup systems.
        
           | bronco21016 wrote:
           | I can't speak to international ops because I'm just not sure.
           | In the US though, we have runway status lights. At all the
           | runway intersections there are lights embedded in the runway
           | that will tell you if the runway is safe or not. A radar
           | based system is constantly monitoring the runway and will
           | light it up red if there is a potential for collision. The
           | system works independent of any input from ATC. I think it's
           | actually quite effective.
           | 
           | Unfortunately it's expensive and so only runways at the
           | busiest airports have it so far.
        
             | epolanski wrote:
             | And yet in US it's also standard practice to have airplanes
             | takeoff on the same runway at the same time if the
             | preceding airplane is small enough to not create vortices.
             | 
             | Note how no one did anything wrong really in this case:
             | 
             | https://simpleflying.com/march-2020-air-canada-incident/
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | You can build a system that accounts for this.
        
           | throw0101d wrote:
           | > _Shouldn't there be a universal standard to communicate
           | clearances to the computer systems of the airplanes and other
           | runway vehicles? And shouldn't there be a small, well-tested
           | core system that makes sure clearance never conflicts?_
           | 
           | ATC entering instructions into a computer, then pilots
           | reading and interpreting from their computer, and then
           | operating their plane, probably is slower and the context
           | switches between the computer screen and what's outside the
           | window may lead to errors.
           | 
           | There are over 100,000 commercial flights each day
           | (worldwide):
           | 
           | * https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
           | 
           | * https://news.paxeditions.com/news/airline/radar-shows-
           | record...
           | 
           | * https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/9/visualising-
           | the-...
           | 
           | What is the error rate of runway incursions and such?
           | 
           | > _How on earth does all this still depend on skilled
           | individuals not making a mistake?_
           | 
           | Flying aircraft in general depends on "skilled individuals
           | not making a mistake". Unless you think we should get rid of
           | pilots completely?
           | 
           | Other things that "depend on skilled individuals not making a
           | mistake": driving cars, cooking food properly (to avoid
           | poisoning), surgery, _etc_.
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | I didn't say that anyone should enter anything manually
             | into a computer, nor did I claim that a human reading a
             | computer screen is how an automated runway system would
             | ensure safety.
             | 
             | As an aside, humans are not doing a good job at driving
             | cars and should leave that to the computers.
        
               | ExoticPearTree wrote:
               | Is there a car autopilot system that good on the market
               | that only you know about? And that can replace the driver
               | completely?
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | Waymo is safer than a human driver already.
               | 
               | https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/googles-waymo-
               | safe...
               | 
               | Of course there will be locations where humans are
               | required, but we can already start using computers in
               | those locations where they perform better.
        
               | Tor3 wrote:
               | Where I drive daily I constantly have to make decisions
               | which no self-driving car system I know about can
               | possibly do. They don't foresee upcoming gridlocks caused
               | by you driving completely legally but blocking (again,
               | legally) a car from crossing to a side road, that car
               | again blocks the car behind it, which blocks the car in
               | front of you from doing a left turn, which means that you
               | can't move and unlock the gridlock. That's just one on my
               | commute. Then there's driving uphill on snow, seeing a
               | person walking on the other side of the road and a car
               | coming in the other direction. You foresee that this car
               | will have some problems braking for that person (which
               | would be the normal procedure - I'm coming the other way,
               | that car shouldn't try to pass the person). So, what I do
               | is to slow down and give that other driver confidence to
               | pass. And sometimes I have to do the other thing -
               | speeding up a bit in order to create room for another car
               | to let that car avoid problems (if I were a computer I
               | would have no reason to think about that).
               | 
               | This is also something happening all the time where I
               | drive. And tons of other understanding-the-traffic cases.
               | 
               | Self-driving systems only follow the rules. That is not
               | sufficient. When general artificial intelligence
               | eventually arrives - that's when we get self-driving cars
               | better than humans, in any other cases than for trivial
               | cases. And yes, computers could drive cars in trivial
               | places, it's just that those places are pretty much non-
               | existing where I live and drive.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | You say all this, yet waymo is demonstrably safer than
               | the average driver.
               | 
               | Uphill in snow maybe you'll have to take the wheel, I'll
               | give you that.
        
               | Tor3 wrote:
               | Waymo hasn't tried driving outside its comfort zone, so
               | I'll argue that it's not demonstrated.
        
               | pb7 wrote:
               | Humans should also abstain from driving outside of their
               | comfort zones.
        
               | edgyquant wrote:
               | Regardless, they don't and do mostly fine
        
               | google234123 wrote:
               | Have you driven in SF?
        
               | Tor3 wrote:
               | No, never been to SF, I have no idea how people drive
               | there or what the conditions are. Except that they're
               | very different from where I drive (except when I'm in the
               | town centre) - roads without sidewalks, mostly no signal
               | lights, snow a large part of the year, and other special
               | conditions.
        
               | pie420 wrote:
               | Good thing that all airports follow similar standards and
               | are all standardized in terms of lighting, signage, etc.
        
               | tjohns wrote:
               | That is not quite accurate. There are certainly standards
               | for airport markings, but there are many non-standard
               | airports... especially when flying at anything smaller
               | than an international airport.
               | 
               | (And yes, even airliners will sometimes land at small
               | regional airports.)
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | Mate, have you driven in Mumbai? Hell, even in Rome? SF
               | is _nothing_.
        
               | edgyquant wrote:
               | How has this been demonstrated? They have certainly had
               | their share of crashes already.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | Yes
               | https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2309/2309.01206.pdf
        
               | atonse wrote:
               | While everything you mention are signs of good, defensive
               | driving and seeing more than "Just following the rules,"
               | average human drivers don't do what you do. And that's
               | what the automated systems are compared to.
               | 
               | So again, while I think ultimately the automated systems
               | should also do what you're talking about, right now, if
               | the other article is true in its claims that Waymo is
               | safer, it seems sufficient to follow the rules to achieve
               | a certain level of safety.
        
               | Tor3 wrote:
               | [other drivers] But they do - where I live. It's very
               | rare to see people _not_ doing that, so much so that
               | everyone really notices.
               | 
               | Edit: And the point is really that strictly just
               | following rules (i.e. just drive if you're in the right
               | and the signs say so) _will_ cause accidents and worse.
               | For others, not necessarily myself. On my commute and
               | nearby.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | What makes you think that a self-driving car cannot have
               | similarly predictive algorithms?
        
               | Tor3 wrote:
               | There's nothing so far indicating that they have, at this
               | point. Though I doubt predictive algorithms would work -
               | there are all kinds of situations, all slightly
               | different, and lots of them about understanding what
               | someone else might be thinking. As I mentioned, I think
               | we'll need general artificial intelligence to do this
               | properly.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | > Waymo is safer than a human driver already.
               | 
               | Is that data controlled for environment? I.e. it must
               | only compare Waymo driving with human drivers in
               | _exactly_ the same environment. Same road, same
               | conditions, same time, etc. Waymo doesn 't take any
               | difficult routes.
        
               | ExoticPearTree wrote:
               | Not to mention the fact that when it encounters a
               | situation never seen before it just "freezes" - happened
               | a few times and caused traffic jams.
               | 
               | What I give these cars is their ability to react
               | "instantaneously" to emergency situations like automated
               | emergency braking when there is an obstacle in the front
               | of the car or the car in front suddenly brakes.
        
               | chrischen wrote:
               | Mercedes just released a level 3 car.
               | 
               | Openpilot, while primarily lane keeping, does it way
               | better than any human can.
               | 
               | Driving doesn't require an advanced degree in physics.
               | It's mostly a mish mash of fairly mundane tasks.
        
               | throw0101d wrote:
               | > _Driving doesn't require an advanced degree in physics.
               | It's mostly a mish mash of fairly mundane tasks._
               | 
               | Generally not wrong, but when it becomes non-mundane, it
               | can become so in a hurry.
               | 
               | This is why I'm sometimes skeptical about statistics that
               | say " _x% of airplane crashes are human error_ ". Well
               | maybe, but by the time the humans get involved the
               | automated systems have often thrown up their proverbial
               | hands and digitally exclaimed " _Jesus take the wheel_ ".
               | 
               | I think having computers take over the mundane parts may
               | help collision rates as people can get numbed and bored
               | by the monotony.
               | 
               | One has to be careful about having the right level of
               | automation and control for the given situation, as per
               | the famous "Children of the Magenta Line" presentation:
               | 
               | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ESJH1NLMLs
               | 
               | > _"Children of the magenta line" has become shorthand
               | for pilots who manage and monitor systems but lack the
               | stick-and-rudder skills to fly the airplane with
               | authority. You may hear it wielded as an epithet in a
               | discussion of "real pilots" versus "kids these days." But
               | in many cockpits today, automation illiteracy may be as
               | dangerous as automation dependency. Vanderburgh's
               | insights shouldn't drive us to reject automation
               | altogether, but rather put it in its proper place in our
               | pilot toolkits. Just as you should hand-fly regularly to
               | keep your stick-and-rudder skills sharp, you should also
               | practice using the technology available in the aircraft
               | you fly._
               | 
               | * https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-
               | news/2023/march/flig...
               | 
               | * https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/children-of-the-
               | magen...
               | 
               | * https://skybrary.aero/articles/cockpit-automation-
               | advantages...
               | 
               | * https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/sp/2015/05/msp20
               | 15050...
        
               | svieira wrote:
               | See also _The Ironies of Automation_ by Lisanne
               | Bainbridge [1]
               | 
               | [1]: https://ckrybus.com/static/papers/Bainbridge_1983_Au
               | tomatica...
        
               | lxgr wrote:
               | I'm willing to believe that computers are better at lane
               | keeping than humans are. That's not the only scenario,
               | though: Unfortunately, driving can go from lane keeping
               | to making a life-or-death decision in a second, and
               | that's not enough time for a human hand-off.
               | 
               | A plane's autopilot can beep and bail out to a human with
               | a few seconds for them to get oriented and take over; a
               | car doesn't always have that luxury.
               | 
               | "Is this a person walking into my lane or just a shadow?"
               | isn't a question that comes up in the air. Until a self-
               | driving car can minimize the probability of that
               | detection going wrong to below human thresholds, I
               | wouldn't feel comfortable sitting in the driver (or maybe
               | even passenger) seat of one.
        
               | ExoticPearTree wrote:
               | > Mercedes just released a level 3 car.
               | 
               | Which only activates on roads mapped extensively by
               | Mercedes.
        
           | ExoticPearTree wrote:
           | Human to human open discussion is superior to computer to
           | computer in the business of flying/navigation.
           | 
           | It might make sense at some point in the future where an
           | autopilot system knows how to taxi, take off, troubleshoot
           | issues by itself during the critical phases of flight and so
           | on.
           | 
           | And like others said, aviation is one of the safest
           | industries on the planet.
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | > Human to human open discussion is superior to computer to
             | computer in the business of flying/navigation.
             | 
             | What makes you think so?
        
               | ExoticPearTree wrote:
               | Because computers don't have instincts. And don't get
               | nuances of communication or instructions.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | I don't need nuances I need to know if the runway is
               | clear or not.
        
               | ExoticPearTree wrote:
               | You are nitpicking at this point.
               | 
               | A runway may be clear when given the clearance to land.
               | And that happens about 4NM from the RWY threshold. In the
               | meantime a incursion might happen. Given low visibility
               | you may not see it as you land a big airplane whose nose
               | is a bit high up because of the flare. And even if you
               | see it, it takes a few seconds for engines to spool up to
               | full power in order to do a go-around.
        
             | sammy2255 wrote:
             | >Human to human open discussion is superior to computer to
             | computer in the business of flying/navigation.
             | 
             | Why? Human to human leaves room for error and
             | misinterpretation.
        
               | ExoticPearTree wrote:
               | Not really. If an instruction is unclear the pilot will
               | ask again for a repeat. Or if the instruments show
               | everything to look normal but the plane doesn't feel
               | right, the pilot will correct it, a computer will not.
               | 
               | Think of the 737 Max whose computers crashed two planes
               | because of incorrect sensor data being fed to them. The
               | pilots there tried to rescue the planes while the planes
               | were following their logic, which was flawed.
        
               | murderfs wrote:
               | > If an instruction is unclear the pilot will ask again
               | for a repeat.
               | 
               | Except when they don't, and confirmation bias themselves
               | into doing the wrong thing. The most likely cause of a
               | plane crash is pilot error, and runway incursions happen
               | shockingly often [1][2][3][4]. The only reason there
               | hasn't been a Tenerife-style disaster is sheer luck.
               | 
               | 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b26NcJCLZl4
               | 
               | 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AbpxqtXcPk
               | 
               | 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oI2rJhdvguc
               | 
               | 4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPJjw68RI2w (the
               | pilots did everything right here, it was the controller
               | who screwed up!)
        
           | gureddio wrote:
           | I'm just a hobbyist, but my understanding is that there are
           | supporting systems in-place, such as RIMCAS (Runway Incursion
           | Monitoring and Conflict Alert System)
           | https://test1.skybrary.aero/articles/runway-incursion-
           | monito...
        
           | rainsford wrote:
           | It's largely a solved problem in aviation as well. Serious
           | accidents get a lot of attention specifically because they
           | are so rare and those based on clearance miscommunication or
           | other radio misunderstanding are rarer still. So you'd be
           | introducing a lot of additional system complexity trying to
           | chase after ever decreasing gains. I'm not sure the end
           | result is a net positive for safety.
        
           | jt2190 wrote:
           | > Shouldn't there be a universal standard to communicate
           | clearances to the computer systems of the airplanes and other
           | runway vehicles?
           | 
           | " _Communicating_ clearances" would actually be the easy
           | part. The hard part is making sure that there actually _is_
           | clearance. The system would need to be able to "see" the
           | runway and to "know" about the flights that are permitted to
           | use it in real-time. It would involve many computers, some in
           | the air and some on the ground I assume. If the system failed
           | the pilots would have to fall back onto something else,
           | perhaps what they do today, so they'd still need training and
           | practice. If a pilot made a mistake the system would need to
           | be able to detect that and update everyone.
        
           | asylteltine wrote:
           | I agree. It's SO antiquated. Nevermind issues with clearance
           | there's even issues like pilots forgetting what was ordered
           | or ATC not catching incorrect read backs. This is just
           | ridiculous that still in 2024 we are using technology from
           | 1950 as the only way to give instructions. We solved
           | encryption and authentication years ago. FAA should mandate
           | strongly authenticated computer messages as the primary.
           | 
           | But you know the real reasons it's old.
           | 
           | 1) corporate greed and no regulation
           | 
           | 2) legacy... it's always legacy holding us back. All the
           | third world countries, Russia, etc would not adopt it.
        
           | lxgr wrote:
           | > We got over this in other domains long ago.
           | 
           | How does the incident/accident rate in these other domains
           | look like, then?
           | 
           | > How on earth does all this still depend on skilled
           | individuals not making a mistake?
           | 
           | Everything safety critical always depends on skilled
           | individuals not making a mistake, as long as there isn't full
           | automation (in which case it depends on the people designing
           | and implementing the automation system).
           | 
           | Until we do have that, mixed automation can actually make
           | things less safe if it isn't done very deliberately and
           | carefully, with people in operations relying on an imperfect
           | system, and system designers on ops to catch complex and edge
           | cases.
        
         | iooi wrote:
         | > invasion
         | 
         | you mean incursion
        
           | manquer wrote:
           | Intrusion is better suited word than both.
           | 
           | Incursion and Invasion have military links, Incursion would
           | be brief and limited in scope, invasion is more full on long
           | term. Both terms imply a subtle but a conscious choice in the
           | crossing of the barrier, while intrusion is more neutral in
           | attributing agency to the action.
        
             | sand500 wrote:
             | Runway incursion is a technical term defined by the ICAO:
             | 
             | > Runway incursion. Any occurrence at an aerodrome
             | involving the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or
             | person on the protected area of a surface designated for
             | the landing and take-off of aircraft.
        
               | manquer wrote:
               | OP only quoted "Invasion", he did not reference it as
               | "Runway Invasion" perhaps he meant the ICAO term, perhaps
               | he took issue with the term invasion. I assumed he meant
               | the latter, How would we know for sure?
               | 
               | Ambiguity while correcting someone else is not ideal.
        
         | jaredchung wrote:
         | I'd be interested in analyzing ATC transcripts to quantify the
         | frequency of communication errors like that in day-to-day
         | operations. Express permission, followed by an explicit (and
         | matching) read-back, to enter a runway should be easy to
         | identify (and the opposite as well). I see liveatc.net has
         | audio archives, and tailstrike.com has transcripts of select
         | accidents.
        
       | The_suffocated wrote:
       | Does this mean when the Airbus landed, there was a Coast Guard
       | plane on the runway? Seems like the ground control had made a
       | serious mistake.
        
         | rorroe53 wrote:
         | Could be a pilot mistake as well. Aircraft entering runway
         | without clearence has happened before.
        
           | epolanski wrote:
           | Not just aircraft, ground vehicles have caused deaths by
           | entering runways too.
        
         | yzydserd wrote:
         | Coastguard plane landing hit airbus on tarmac.
         | 
         | Edit: seems I was wrong. The airbus was landing.
        
           | trollied wrote:
           | > Coastguard plane landing hit airbus on tarmac.
           | 
           | Unfortunately, you have invented this narrative. There is
           | video of the Airbus landing and striking the other plane.
           | 
           | AV Herald link: https://avherald.com/h?article=5132b9fe&opt=0
        
         | aaronmdjones wrote:
         | Ground control wouldn't have cleared them to hold short, or to
         | position and hold (US: "line up and wait"). That would have
         | been the tower, not ground. Ground is only responsible for
         | taxiways, not runways.
         | 
         | The Coastguard plane was cleared to hold short at C2, but
         | entered the runway instead from C2 as if cleared to position
         | and hold (Edit: Or maybe they thought they were cleared to take
         | off, but that's far less likely).
        
       | davidkuennen wrote:
       | It's so impressive that all of them got out alive.
       | 
       | It's also the first hull loss of an A350. Seems to be an
       | amazingly safe plane considering this.
        
       | Nextgrid wrote:
       | I wonder if some kind of "TCAS" for runways can be implemented -
       | once the controller clears an aircraft for a given runway, some
       | antennas start broadcasting that aircraft's identifier so any
       | equipped planes approaching the runway can tell whether they've
       | been cleared for it.
       | 
       | For planes on approach, the existing ILS antennas can be reused
       | but I'm not sure whether that will work on the ground - do the
       | ILS antennas cover enough of the ground to accurately target a
       | plane that's approaching the runway perpendicularly (off a
       | taxiway, etc)?
        
         | t0mas88 wrote:
         | Two types of systems already exists on the ATC side of things.
         | There are red stop-bar lights at each runway entry point.
         | Pilots are trained never to cross a red stop-bar even if told
         | by ATC. The controller has to press a button to turn the lights
         | off, and they automatically come back on after 1 plane has
         | passed the lights.
         | 
         | In larger airports with an automated system, the system
         | monitors the runway occupancy and approach sector. If the
         | runway is occupied or an aircraft is on final within a certain
         | distance, the system throws an alert before the stop-bars can
         | be turned off.
         | 
         | On top of that there is also an autonomous version of this
         | system that will use red lights to indicate a dangerous runway
         | status (e.g. aircraft on approach) at each entry point. And the
         | other way around, an aircraft line up for takeoff (but holding)
         | will get red lights if any of the entry points further down the
         | runway are crossed. More here:
         | https://skybrary.aero/articles/autonomous-runway-incursion-w...
        
         | __m wrote:
         | ASDE-X should warn the controller, not sure if it's installed
         | at that airport
        
           | asystole wrote:
           | I'm in the realm of pure speculation here, but does ASDE-X to
           | some extent rely on a/c having mode B transponders, which
           | I've seen people saying the coastguard Dash-8s didn't have?
           | If this is the textbook runway incursion it appears to be
           | then it does seem incredible it wasn't caught by runway
           | safety systems.
        
             | Nextgrid wrote:
             | I wonder if another system can use lasers/light beams to
             | detect obstructions on the runway? Rather than relying on
             | vehicles actively reporting their positions (which can
             | malfunction, and as far as I know only aircraft are
             | equipped - cars/trucks/snow clearing vehicles don't have
             | it), it would instead just check whether there's _anything_
             | on the runway and alert the controller (and ideally any
             | approaching planes via the ILS antennas) that the runway is
             | obstructed?
        
       | monkey_monkey wrote:
       | The Guardian is reporting that 5 people who were on the
       | coastguard plane have died.
        
       | KptMarchewa wrote:
       | The fact that everyone made it out alive from A350 is a great
       | testament to the design. Insane.
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | Eh, not really. Any passenger plane design is supposed to be
         | able to evacuate in 90 seconds. They had several minutes (at
         | least) to get off that plane before the fire spread to the
         | cabin.
        
           | lxgr wrote:
           | Looking at the videos, the plane was literally doused in
           | burning jet fuel as it was decelerating at high speed. I
           | still find that very impressive for a plane built out of
           | ultimately flammable materials (carbon fiber).
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | I would expect similar performance from any plane, whether
             | aluminum or composite.
        
       | Aeolun wrote:
       | Holy crap. That's some news to come home to after the earthquake
       | yesterday...
        
       | king_magic wrote:
       | This never should have happened, and mark my words we're going to
       | see the same type of accident in the US if we don't radically
       | rework ATC.
        
         | Dalewyn wrote:
         | It's still unknown if the cause was ATC mishandling the
         | situation, we'll have to see how what the investigation finds.
        
         | epolanski wrote:
         | You're implying this is ATC rather than human-error related.
        
           | TangoFox wrote:
           | To anyone else jumping to conclusions:
           | 
           | First, please do not jump to conclusions.
           | 
           | Secondly, this incident was in Japan, not the US. Feelings
           | about US ATC should not be a factor in this situation.
           | 
           | Third, wasn't there a recent runway collision (wing clipped a
           | tail) in the US where the pilot was quick to blame ATC on the
           | radio, but it turns out that pilot entered the runway without
           | permission? (initial conclusions are often wrong)
           | 
           | Disclaimer: I am a US ATC - The views expressed here are my
           | own and not necessarily those of FAA.
        
             | king_magic wrote:
             | Just to be clear I'm not calling out ATC specifically, as
             | in the people who are controllers.
             | 
             | Rather, the entire system of air traffic control.
             | 
             | It seems to me if we end up in a situation where a pilot
             | does something wrong in a sensitive area that can lead to a
             | catastrophic outcome, we didn't do a good job of
             | controlling air traffic. Full stop.
             | 
             | The system is amazingly safe but clearly there are pockets
             | of very poor control/decision making around runway
             | incursions or near misses around the runway.
        
         | mym1990 wrote:
         | I feel like 'radically' reworking anything is a great first
         | step in increasing errors while the new processes get
         | ingrained. There needs to a measured and meticulous approach to
         | reworking ATC if it is to happen.
        
           | king_magic wrote:
           | I'd consider significantly raising controller wages and
           | improving working conditions to be a fairly radical proposal
           | in at least the US's current political climate.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | The average controller makes 120K as it is. That may not be
             | a lot for people in the software world accustomed to making
             | big bucks, but it's not terrible -- close to 90th
             | percentile.
        
         | local_crmdgeon wrote:
         | We don't need to radically rework ATC, we need to fully staff
         | ATC.
         | 
         | FAA has this as a top priority and is publishing stats on class
         | graduations and retention etc.
        
       | m_eiman wrote:
       | Here's a first-hand account from one of the passengers on the
       | Airbus, somewhat decently translated from Swedish:
       | 
       | https://www-svt-se.translate.goog/nyheter/utrikes/svensk-fam...
        
       | nottorp wrote:
       | We really need a paywall mark. Too bad linking to av....ld would
       | probably shut down the site for today.
        
         | yardstick wrote:
         | Anyone here from one of the large CDN providers want to reach
         | out to AV Herald and offer him some free services? It's such a
         | useful and informative resource. Too bad it's super slow when
         | accessed in AU/NZ and I guess outside US/EU.
        
           | roelschroeven wrote:
           | Earlier today it was very slow, and often timing out, from
           | the EU too. I haven't tried again since.
        
             | nottorp wrote:
             | Guessing because this accident made it to mainstream news.
        
       | supernova87a wrote:
       | I dare say / guess that 2 combined factors will have helped the
       | successful evacuation effort (especially given that these
       | aircraft for Japan internal flights are some of the densest
       | passenger configurations):
       | 
       | 1. Domestic flight, with people less likely to be hauling around
       | lots of belongings, although in Japan people already bring much
       | less onto flights with them.
       | 
       | 2. The well-known social expectation/procedure-abiding
       | inclination of everyday Japanese people kicking in to enforce an
       | orderly (and no bag-carrying) exit.
       | 
       | Others may have observed similarly when flying in Japan. They can
       | regularly board a widebody plane in 15 minutes, whereas 30-40+
       | minutes for the US still produces departure delays. I am guessing
       | this efficiency factors into the evacuation as well.
       | 
       | Versus other evacuation videos I have seen where people are
       | actually exiting with their rollaboards. Really shocking.
        
         | stevehawk wrote:
         | I have to admit, I wonder how many lives would have been lost
         | if this happened in America. "I have to get my laptop!"
         | "where's my carry-on!?" "I think I left my phone!"
        
       | steveBK123 wrote:
       | This is why you follow cabin crew instructions and DO NOT CARRY
       | YOUR LUGGAGE out of the aircraft in an emergency. Your luggage is
       | not worth more than a fellow passengers life.
       | 
       | Contrast this with evacuation footage of western passenger
       | planes..
        
         | rgrieselhuber wrote:
         | Indeed. It's a good idea to keep your passport and some small
         | USB drives (password database, Linux image for installation on
         | a new laptop, etc.) on your person instead of in your luggage
         | when you fly.
        
           | hn_throwaway_69 wrote:
           | >password database, Linux image for installation on a new
           | laptop
           | 
           | Heh. Imagine surviving a plane crash. Everyone is busy
           | calling their loved ones, and I'm busy setting up my new
           | Linux distribution on a laptop bought in duty free, using the
           | Linux image in my pocket.
        
             | chilmers wrote:
             | After six hours trying to get the touchpad working you're
             | wishing you'd died in the crash.
        
         | nytesky wrote:
         | Members of my family require medication (epipen, some various
         | pills), and I keep that along with a flashlight (in case I need
         | to administer in pitch black) in a small haversack. I would
         | probably try to take that with me, as I would hate to survive
         | the crash but then have a fatal medical event in the aftermath
         | and not have the tools. I do feel conflicted since the no
         | luggage mantra has been drilled in for decades.
        
           | phkahler wrote:
           | >> I would probably try to take that with me, as I would hate
           | to survive the crash but then have a fatal medical event in
           | the aftermath and not have the tools.
           | 
           | But you might just die in the fire yourself, prioritizing a
           | hypothetical emergency over a real one. There would also be
           | plenty of medical personnel present once you get off the
           | plane, they probably won't let you leave the scene without
           | talking to one.
        
             | anigbrowl wrote:
             | It's fine to take something small you can carry in one
             | hand/keep with you through the whole flight without it
             | being a problem. It's the luggage in the overhead baggage
             | compartments that needs to be abandoned.
        
             | ajross wrote:
             | > But you might just die in the fire yourself, prioritizing
             | a hypothetical emergency over a real one
             | 
             | The Two Failure Fallacy is a fatal flaw of human reasoning.
             | It's almost never correct to engineer anything on the
             | assumption of two bad things happening simultaneously. You
             | do your analysis based on individual/uncorrelated failure
             | modes. And only then do you make design choices (c.f.
             | "defense in depth", "redundancy", etc...) about how much
             | the interactions overlap and what the tradeoffs are.
             | 
             | In this case, duh. Positing that _emergency medical
             | personnel_ are somehow unable to handle an allergy attack
             | is silly.
        
               | nytesky wrote:
               | Well my problem is the conditions of an airline crash
               | (the smoke, extreme heat, etc) are triggers for our
               | disease. It's not a simple as a peanut allergy where you
               | just avoid eating a certain food.
               | 
               | I'm not convinced that medical personnel would be on hand
               | that quickly for all emergency landings -- sure if you
               | are at a major airport. But they may not notice someone
               | who collapsed after being triaged away from the more
               | severely injured.
        
           | blitzar wrote:
           | I applaud you for admitting publicly that you would trade
           | convenience for yourself over 100's of other peoples lives.
        
             | wkat4242 wrote:
             | Not the OP but I wouldn't call lifesaving medical equipment
             | like an EpiPen a convenience.
             | 
             | Though it would be better to just stick it in a pocket. I
             | always carry a flashlight on my keychain as well.
        
               | blitzar wrote:
               | There is an ambulance at the bottom of the slide, 90
               | seconds is the target time for evacuating the entire
               | plane in an emergency.
               | 
               | Having an EpiPen in the 90 seconds between your seat and
               | the ambulance while fire is engulfing the tin can with
               | ~400 people trying to get out 2 doors is 100% a luxury.
               | (for the vast majority of humanity, having an EpiPen at
               | all is a luxury)
        
             | ativzzz wrote:
             | Why? A good chunk of humanity showed via covid that they
             | are not interested in inconveniencing themselves for
             | potentially reducing overall harm to others.
        
               | thegrim33 wrote:
               | Because they had a different analysis of the situation
               | than you did, not because they had the same analysis and
               | just chose to be assholes.
        
             | Vecr wrote:
             | I do more or less prefer my life (as well as the things
             | that go along with it, health, physical safety, ...) more
             | than some derived number of other people, for various
             | complicated reasons. In some situations it could get as
             | high as the single digit trillions, but it's usually in the
             | hundreds to thousands range or even less.
        
           | werdnapk wrote:
           | Those drugs are still available outside of your luggage. Your
           | need for that stuff is convenience. Everybody else on the
           | flight would prefer to have their luggage too.
        
           | steveBK123 wrote:
           | If the medical condition is so dire that medicine must be
           | kept on hand then it should be in your pockets, not tucked
           | away in luggage.
           | 
           | What is the probability of being stung by a bee or eating a
           | bag of nuts between your seat, the slide, and the ambulances
           | rushing to the scene to rescue people?
           | 
           | Otherwise by this logic, just about everyone has a reason to
           | self-justify needing to get into their luggage in an
           | emergency evacuation event.
           | 
           | Target to evacuate planes in an emergency is 90 seconds.
           | Contrast with regular deplaning with luggage which takes
           | upwards of 15 minutes. So the plane must evacuate at 10x
           | speed in order to save lives.
        
             | nytesky wrote:
             | I'm guessing you aren't carrying an epi regularly -- they
             | seem likely to be broken if in my pocket. It's not a pocket
             | sized form factor.
             | 
             | The bag I have is about the size of two croissants -- I
             | keep it under seat in front of me or in my lap.
             | 
             | But this topic has inspired me to improve my process, so I
             | would like to find a money belt or shoulder holster style
             | bag to carry meds and epi while traveling. Basically body
             | hugging.
             | 
             | Any help in finding something that isn't from Temu, or some
             | random drop shipper? I found one eagle creek bag but would
             | prefer a shoulder style?
        
           | google234123 wrote:
           | You need to break the rules, risk others lives, and grab your
           | carryon in an airport in a major city for an epipen? How many
           | hospitals, ambulances, and first aid stations are within 5k
           | of you would you guess?
        
         | phkahler wrote:
         | >> Your luggage is not worth more than a fellow passengers
         | life.
         | 
         | I was going to say a major narcissist would disagree, but they
         | probably don't have many of those in Japan. And then you
         | followed up:
         | 
         | >> Contrast this with evacuation footage of western passenger
         | planes..
         | 
         | Is that for real? It would not surprise me, but is there
         | documentation of this difference in deplaning? Or other areas?
        
           | steveBK123 wrote:
           | Yes
           | 
           | https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/red-
           | pla...
           | 
           | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10055329/Spirit-
           | Air...
           | 
           | https://nypost.com/2023/03/09/plane-passengers-slammed-
           | for-g...
        
         | jtbayly wrote:
         | Ok, I watched a video somebody else linked.
         | 
         | People don't act at all the same after getting crashed into by
         | another plane, barely making it to the ground in a plane filled
         | with smoke and fire, as they do when those things haven't
         | happened?
         | 
         | You don't say.
         | 
         | Would you say it's a good idea to throw yourself tumbling down
         | the emergency slide and sprint away from the plane if those
         | things hadn't happened?
         | 
         | This is not even a remotely helpful comment.
        
         | SoftTalker wrote:
         | I like to think that in a _real_ emergency (crash landing, fire
         | visible outside, smoke entering the cabin) survival instinct
         | will kick in and people will just GTFO without worrying about
         | luggage. The videos I 've seen of people evacuating with
         | luggage seem a _little_ less serious. That said, an evacuation
         | is always serious. People often do get hurt coming down those
         | slides so the crew only order an evacuation if they think it
         | outweighs the risk of staying put and waiting for help.
        
           | steveBK123 wrote:
           | I'd like to think so but there have been plenty of US
           | incidents of people evacuating for an engine on fire with
           | baggage in tow.
           | 
           | If you are evacuating out the door on a slide, something is
           | quite serious. The trained professionals telling you to leave
           | your baggage behind have more information than passengers in
           | that regard. That is why they decided to deploy the slides.
           | 
           | Just because one can't see a fire doesn't mean there isn't an
           | engine fire on the other side, or a fuel leak or.. etc.
           | Planes are pretty big, you can't see/smell everything from
           | your seat/window.
           | 
           | I mean here's some right here of smoking planes with evacuees
           | hauling even wheelies..
           | 
           | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10055329/Spirit-
           | Air...
           | 
           | https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/red-
           | pla...
        
           | lxgr wrote:
           | > in a real emergency (crash landing, fire visible outside,
           | smoke entering the cabin) survival instinct will kick in and
           | people will just GTFO without worrying about luggage
           | 
           | Unfortunately, that's not always the case: https://en.wikiped
           | ia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_Flight_1492#Evacuatio...
        
             | thegrim33 wrote:
             | Ok? What you linked to, which is a single paragraph, does
             | not provide any proof for your claim. It says there was
             | some speculation that people retrieving luggage caused
             | delay, but state media and law enforcement are on record as
             | saying there's no evidence that it had any effect, as well
             | as there being a witness saying it had no effect.
        
               | lxgr wrote:
               | Please read my comment again; I made no such claim.
               | 
               | GP said they could not imagine anybody even worrying
               | about their language in a severe crash, yet in the case
               | of Aeroflot 1492, people definitely did retrieve theirs:
               | 
               | > [...] prompted by video footage showing passengers
               | leaving the plane with luggage in hand [...]
        
               | tomjakubowski wrote:
               | The claim was simply that passengers will still reach for
               | luggage even in an incident as serious as fire in the
               | cabin. That was the case in this example, and the others
               | linked by steveBK
        
         | spinach wrote:
         | From what info are you assuming that no one did? A middle
         | school boy who was on the plane said "He Wu woQu riChu
         | soutoiuRen moita"[0], "there were also people who tried to get
         | their luggage".
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240102/k10014307191000.ht...
        
       | ablation wrote:
       | Doesn't sound like quite such a miracle right now for the
       | unfortunate crew of the Coast Guard aircraft, with five of the
       | six crew unaccounted for, sadly.
        
         | argiopetech wrote:
         | Now confirmed deceased, unfortunately.
        
       | throw0101d wrote:
       | For the ATC, see:
       | 
       | * https://archive.liveatc.net/rjtt/RJTT-Twr-TCA-Jan-02-2024-08...
       | 
       | * Via: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/35868205-post57.html
       | 
       | 13:13 JL516 continue approach. 14:53 landing clearance. 15:01
       | readback. 15:13 Japan Coast Guard JA772A taxi instructions. 17:35
       | fire reported on 34R.
       | 
       | * https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/35868237-post67.html
       | 
       | The recording quality isn't very good, perhaps because of the
       | location of the receiver.
        
         | mkii wrote:
         | Whenever I listen to these types of recordings, there's so much
         | static and it's hard to hear the words. Is this how it actually
         | sounds to pilots/ATC operators or is their feed actually much
         | clearer?
        
           | lxgr wrote:
           | It's usually much clearer.
           | 
           | These unofficial ATC feeds are usually captured by volunteers
           | or at least companies not directly affiliated with the
           | aviation industry (similarly to services like Flightradar24),
           | sometimes some distance away from airports, which makes ATC
           | and aircraft on the ground really hard to hear.
           | 
           | What also helps a lot is that the formats of messages relayed
           | are pretty standardized (ICAO phraseology), and knowing what
           | phrases to listen for can help a lot.
           | 
           | On the other hand, it can unfortunately also cause people to
           | hear what they are primed for - such as a landing or takeoff
           | clearance... (Not implying that this happened here - I can't
           | make out what's being said on the tape myself!)
        
       | somewhereoutth wrote:
       | I'd suggest that the miracle escape is testament to ~100? years
       | of evolution of civil aviation safety practices.
        
         | DiggyJohnson wrote:
         | Yes? That doesn't make it incorrect to call it a miracle.
        
           | squigz wrote:
           | Yes, it does.
           | 
           | "a surprising and welcome event that is not explicable by
           | natural or scientific laws and is therefore considered to be
           | the work of a divine agency."
        
             | squigz wrote:
             | Rather amusing to me how many people are downvoting this
             | comment.
        
               | mhb wrote:
               | Yeah, it's rough out there for pedants.
        
           | deepersprout wrote:
           | Or god wanted them all to die, but human technological
           | advances made them live.
        
         | adastra22 wrote:
         | 5 people died. I wouldn't call it a miracle.
        
           | ApolloFortyNine wrote:
           | >All 379 passengers and crew of a Japan Airlines plane
           | escaped a devastating fire that erupted after it collided
           | with a smaller Coast Guard aircraft at Tokyo's Haneda airport
           | on Tuesday.
           | 
           | That's 379 lives saved, is the number not important, or is it
           | the ratio?
        
             | reactordev wrote:
             | It should have been 384. If 10,000 people die but 1,000,000
             | are "saved", do we not mourn the 10,000 people? Have a
             | heart my man. What if you were one of those 10,000?
        
               | RHSeeger wrote:
               | If a "normal" outcome for such an event would have been
               | much closer to 1,000,000 being killed, then yes it would
               | be wonderful if 990,000 were saved. Sure, we mourn the
               | dead, but we can still be happy for the saved.
        
               | adastra22 wrote:
               | Still, the word miracle would be inappropriate.
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | wonderful for sure, but not a miracle. A miracle would be
               | "all 1,000,000 people survived". Media likes to throw
               | words with weight behind things without. It's not a
               | miracle, it's extremely fortunate. However, any loss of
               | life due to preventable disaster is/should be -
               | unacceptable. The coast guard aircraft crewmen that were
               | struck shouldn't have been near the runway at all. They
               | should have waived off to go-around or been better at
               | ground operations to make sure the runways were clear.
        
       | mrabcx wrote:
       | According to Flightradar24,
       | https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1742136715253313938, the
       | Japanese coast guard aircraft was not equipped with a ADS-B
       | transponder. Probably because it's not a requirement for military
       | aircraft. That can explain why the ATC and/or JAL was not aware
       | of the exact location of the plane.
        
         | Dalewyn wrote:
         | Minor nitpick, but the Japan Coast Guard is not a military (and
         | so the concerned aircraft isn't military).
         | 
         | It serves under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport
         | and Tourism; unlike the JSDF which serves under the Ministry of
         | Defense.
        
           | alistairSH wrote:
           | Curious, what's the rule for USCG and transponders?
           | 
           | USCG is part of DHS and considered a military branch (despite
           | not being in DoD alongside the other military branches and
           | having a primarily law-enforcement mission).
        
             | manquer wrote:
             | Civilian transponders would give away the position of the
             | craft to smugglers and others trying to evade the coast
             | guard. I would expect they would have the ability to switch
             | off their transponders at minimum for missions.
        
         | throw0101d wrote:
         | It has a transponder, and previous flights for it were
         | recorded:
         | 
         | * https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ja722a
         | 
         | * Via:
         | https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1742136715253313938
         | 
         | * https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/de-havilland-
         | canada-d...
        
           | icehawk wrote:
           | It has a mode-s transponder. If you look at, say ADSBExchanbe
           | you can see the signal source is MLAT
           | 
           | https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=867bee&lat=36.840&lon=1.
           | ..
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | I'm most curious about why the JAL plane couldn't see it. An
         | airliner has a pretty bright headlight, and the CG plane should
         | have had lighting on it as well that would distinguish it from
         | the runway lighting.
         | 
         | Clearly, as usual, accidents like this require a number of
         | things to all go wrong at the same time.
        
       | icegreentea2 wrote:
       | Other sources (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/japan-airliner-
       | fire-1.7072315) say that the coast guard aircraft was a dash-8.
        
         | wkat4242 wrote:
         | 5 crew is a lot for a cargo flight actually. I wonder why there
         | were so many on board.
        
           | icegreentea2 wrote:
           | I think it sometimes makes sense to carry extra people to
           | help with offloading, depending on the situation. The Dash-8
           | is not a cargo aircraft - it's not like you can just roll
           | pallets on and off.
           | 
           | It's also possible that it would do a cargo run, and then do
           | some surveillance operations (the JSDF employ the Dash-8 in
           | the maritime surveillance role) to help with damage
           | assessment.
        
       | andyjohnson0 wrote:
       | There's a PPRUNE thread with the usual mix of comments at
       | https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/656665-jal-inci...
       | 
       | Comments get more informative (and informed?) down the thread.
        
         | asylteltine wrote:
         | Wow that live video really puts the size in perspective. The
         | firefighters are minuscule compared to the plane
        
       | nixass wrote:
       | First A350 hull loss
        
         | cgeier wrote:
         | But unlikely to be the plane's fault.
        
           | nixass wrote:
           | Definitely not. It's actually great how the frame endured
           | whole thing enough for people to safely evacuate.
        
       | wkat4242 wrote:
       | Admiral Cloudberg has their work cut out for them again... I
       | always love their insights (not sure if it's a man or a woman)
       | 
       | It's not really a miracle though. Just the system working as
       | intended, and the many lessons learned from the lives that were
       | lost in the past paying off.
       | 
       | As an example: due to this accident with many fatalities, the
       | process for fire on the runway has been improved considerably. In
       | that case the wind direction made a big difference in the number
       | of fatalities, because it blew toxic smoke and fire into the
       | fuselage while the evacuation was ongoing. Lessons were learned
       | and procedures fixed. But it's still important to remember that
       | those lessons were paid in blood.
       | https://admiralcloudberg.medium.com/fire-on-the-runway-the-m...
        
         | Varimpls wrote:
         | A woman, not that it matters
        
       | drooopy wrote:
       | Jeez, Japan did not start the year off on the right foot.
        
       | steveBK123 wrote:
       | Yet another Japanese plane evacuation without people lugging
       | backpacks & wheelies. Commendable work by the cabin crew and
       | passengers.
       | 
       | Contrast that with some of the Spirit/Southwest/Qantas evacuation
       | videos we have seen.
       | 
       | DO NOT EVACUATE WITH LUGGAGE.
        
         | throw0101d wrote:
         | > _DO NOT EVACUATE WITH LUGGAGE._
         | 
         | Simple rule IMHO: keep your ID/password and a credit card on
         | your person during take-off / landing. (Probably your phone, in
         | a pocket, as well.)
         | 
         | Practically speaking as long as you can ID yourself and buy
         | things (pay-off later), there's no property that's worth your
         | life (or the life of other passengers).
        
           | steveBK123 wrote:
           | 1000%
           | 
           | If anything else is so imminently needed to maintain the life
           | of you or your loved ones while traveling, keep it in
           | your/their pockets.
           | 
           | Past this everyone has some excuse of medical, dietary,
           | sentimental, economic, etc reason to grab stuff out of their
           | luggage. This contributes to loss of life.
           | 
           | You have 60-90 seconds to evacuate a burning aircraft. This
           | is 10-20x faster than a normal with-luggage deplaning. If you
           | are fumbling around with luggage, you are a hazard to
           | yourself and others.
           | 
           | If you are evacuating a plane you are seconds to minutes away
           | from a fleet of ambulances ready to whisk you away to a
           | nearby trauma center. No existing medical condition is going
           | to get you before the fire will.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | I don't routinely do so but there are a few basic things that
           | in an ideal world you should probably have on your person in
           | some secure way--which admittedly probably requires some
           | specific clothing.
           | 
           | ADDED: There probably are certain specialized critical
           | medicines that people should carry in a vial around their
           | necks that they're not getting anytime soon from an
           | overwhelmed trauma center. But that's probably true even
           | absent the plane crash scenario.
        
             | steveBK123 wrote:
             | If someone is willing to leave home without it for a walk
             | in the park / drinks at a bar / quick stop at the store,
             | then they can evacuate a burning plane without it.
             | 
             | If it is truly that imminently required to keep them alive,
             | they should already be in the habit of keeping it on their
             | person.
             | 
             | And certainly while flying, and at the very very least
             | during takeoff/landing on a plane. Further, absolute worst
             | case.. with pre-evacuation warning time, reachable in under
             | seat backpack to be moved to your jeans/shirt/jacket
             | pocket. If you travel in clothes without pockets, now is a
             | good time to reconsider doing so.
             | 
             | Lots of opportunities here to not try and lug baggage down
             | an evacuation slide and risk your own / fellow passengers
             | deaths.
             | 
             | If this is surprising to anyone reading, hope you plan
             | accordingly now during your next travel.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Yes, lots of stuff can happen in everyday life that would
               | mean you should have critical medications on your person.
               | 
               | At the end of the day your passport and credit cards
               | situation aren't critical in such a situation however
               | much bureaucratic hell you may go through if you're in a
               | foreign country with no ID or money and not of a
               | nationality where your embassy is rushing to help.
               | 
               | In general my approach is travel pants with zipped
               | pockets.
        
           | mattlondon wrote:
           | +1
           | 
           | I usually do this when flying for work. Wallet, passport and
           | phone in my pocket the whole flight. Anything else can be
           | replaced.
           | 
           | If anything happened I'd hope to at least send a SMS to my
           | wife to say "I'm safe".
        
       | tgtweak wrote:
       | Some video footage from inside the plane and of the impact.
       | 
       | https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1742127927880216725
        
       | jmacd wrote:
       | It is really impressive that everyone was able to evacuate the
       | plane. From some of the videos online you can see that there was
       | a significant and increasing amount of smoke in the cabin. It is
       | a testament to the evolving design of commercial aircraft. The
       | light strips on the floor always fascinate me when I am flying. I
       | often think about how if the cabin was filling with smoke, those
       | lights would be the only way you have to keep moving towards an
       | exit.
        
       | jagrsw wrote:
       | Could the accident be linked to the clarity of radio
       | instructions? I saw a discussion suggesting the DH aircraft might
       | have been unsure about the correct runway to use, C1 or C5.
       | 
       | My aim isn't to critique the English proficiency of non-native
       | speakers, especially those from non-Proto-Indo-European
       | linguistic backgrounds. As a non-native English speaker myself, I
       | understand the challenges.
       | 
       | However, I found it trully hard to comprehend the airport's side
       | of the communications due to heavily accented and unclear
       | pronunciation. Shouldn't there be a greater emphasis on air
       | traffic controllers improving their English skills, since English
       | is lingua franca (pun intended) of aviation.
       | 
       | Or perhaps this is irrelevant, considering aviation's global
       | nature. Are pilots expected to adapt to and understand
       | communications with strong accents?
        
         | throw0101d wrote:
         | > _Could the accident be linked to the clarity of radio
         | instructions? I saw a discussion suggesting the DH aircraft
         | might have been unsure about the correct runway to use, C1 or
         | C5._
         | 
         | From my comment in part of the discussion thread[0]:
         | 
         | --
         | 
         | For the ATC, see:
         | 
         | * https://archive.liveatc.net/rjtt/RJTT-Twr-TCA-
         | Jan-02-2024-08...
         | 
         | * Via: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/35868205-post57.html
         | 
         | 13:13 JL516 continue approach. 14:53 landing clearance. 15:01
         | readback. 15:13 Japan Coast Guard JA772A taxi instructions.
         | 17:35 fire reported on 34R.
         | 
         | * https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/35868237-post67.html
         | 
         | The recording quality isn't very good, perhaps because of the
         | location of the receiver.
         | 
         | --
         | 
         | The ATC quality of my local airport (CYYZ Tower) available
         | through LiveATC is much better. I following some flying/pilot
         | Youtubers, and their recordings of ATC are also quite good, so
         | I'm not sure why LiveATC at HND is as statically as it is.
         | 
         | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38839885#unv_38841161
        
           | Shank wrote:
           | All of these ATC feeds are from SDR stations close by that
           | monitor the same frequencies. Your local airport sounds
           | better because someone has a better SDR rig to receive it.
           | Generally the audio is crystal clear in the cockpit and on
           | the ground -- it's just that the SDR stations don't have as
           | good antennae as the real systems do.
        
             | MBCook wrote:
             | I've always wondered about that. When I hear recordings
             | online they're often so bad I wonder how there aren't more
             | issues.
             | 
             | That explains it.
        
               | thedrbrian wrote:
               | I know it'll be a long time coming but wait for the ATC
               | recordings to come out. They'll be crystal clear.
        
             | ac29 wrote:
             | Antenna quality is unlikely to be a significant factor in
             | audio quality if the stations are actually somewhat close
             | to the airport. The difference between a very good and very
             | poor antenna is maybe 5-7 dB in the VHF airband, which
             | shouldnt noticeably degrade quality unless you are already
             | at the margins of signal availability. Antenna location is
             | going to make a much, much bigger difference.
        
         | beej71 wrote:
         | I was feeling bad because I couldn't understand through the
         | accent, which I consider my failure, not theirs.
         | 
         | But I know one can improve understanding with practice, so
         | maybe pilots are just better at it.
        
         | bagels wrote:
         | There is a ton of static too, why is that still tolerated?
        
           | avidiax wrote:
           | ATC uses AM radio since it behaves well. Two AM broadcasts on
           | the same frequency add in proportion to their strength. Two
           | FM broadcasts tend to cut into each other randomly.
           | 
           | It's a case of AM being the long-term standard, and also
           | being physically suited to the task.
        
         | rafram wrote:
         | In addition to what others have said about the quality, pilots
         | and air traffic controllers communicate using a very restricted
         | vocabulary. They aren't having free-flowing conversations - ATC
         | issues commands using what's essentially a spoken domain-
         | specific language, and pilots echo them back. Accent should not
         | be a major issue.
        
         | Denvercoder9 wrote:
         | _> the correct runway to use, C1 or C5._
         | 
         | FWIW, C1 and C5 are not runways, but taxiways leading to the
         | runway.
        
       | kingofpandora wrote:
       | I noticed in the video that many people onboard A359 were wearing
       | masks. Would those have helped significantly to prevent smoke
       | inhalation?
        
         | bugbuddy wrote:
         | No, because regular masks would not work for such situations.
        
         | porkbeer wrote:
         | Not at all.
        
         | rightbyte wrote:
         | Maybe discrete pieces of ash.
        
       | aidenn0 wrote:
       | Kind of a morbid curiosity, but would a Dash-8 taxiing for
       | takeoff have more or less fuel in total than an A350 coming in
       | for landing?
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | A much more informative video is
       | https://youtu.be/6NbVdIoJsHY?t=169 ... you can see the accident
       | aircraft enter the runway then stands there for 40+ seconds
       | before the other aircraft lands on it. It seems like a lot of
       | time during which controllers could have detected the conflict.
        
         | cryptonector wrote:
         | Wow, the dash-8 begins to move into the runway at 2:48, and
         | then sits there for the rest of the time. It's really hard to
         | spot this from this video going forwards, but it you got
         | backwards from the crash you can see the lights from the dash-8
         | and work out when it got onto the runway.
         | 
         | Maybe the coast guard pilot thought he had permission to line
         | up, but not to take off? Anyways, it's also pretty easy to see
         | that it would have been difficult for the tower staff and the
         | A350 pilots to notice the incursion and avoid the accident.
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | I think the wide angle of view from this camera gives a
           | misleading impression of what it would have looked like in
           | person. I also have no idea where the controllers would have
           | been in this scene. Is the aircraft landing on 34R?
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | And 40 seconds where it should have been visible to the pilots
         | of the airliner. I know they have checklists to run, but are
         | neither of the pilots looking forward during final approach?
        
       | CrimsonCape wrote:
       | Pilots increasingly seem to have an iPad with some kind of apps.
       | Do you have experience with this? In terms of redundant systems,
       | seems kinda obvious that if you look at a flight tracker on your
       | ipad and see a plane on your runway, you don't land...
        
         | lxgr wrote:
         | These apps usually use ADS-B as received by various community-
         | operated receivers.
         | 
         | This introduces a lag of several seconds, doesn't guarantee
         | reception in tricky situations (such as planes flying very low,
         | as during the final approach, or on the ground), and is limited
         | to the planes' own position fix accuracy, which is orders of
         | magnitude too coarse for this use case.
        
         | icehawk wrote:
         | The coastguard aircraft involved only has a Mode S transponder
         | and so those flight tracker websites can only determine the
         | plane's position when there's enough receiver coverage to do
         | multilateration
        
       | VoodooJuJu wrote:
       | Such a high comment to score ratio is typically due to political
       | polarization, but there's nothing politically polarizing about
       | this, so what's the deal here?
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | I think it's because of how dang merged multiple threads
         | together.
        
       | maxcan wrote:
       | Compare and contrast to Aeroflot 1492:
       | 
       | Aeroflot: 41 passenger deaths, many bags saved.
       | 
       | JAL: 0 passenger deaths, 0 bags saved.
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_DT8dDIugQ
        
         | p1mrx wrote:
         | How do you know that nobody evacuated with a bag?
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Sounds to me this could have been prevented with better software
       | in the airplanes and control towers.
        
       | philip1209 wrote:
       | Would military planes be equipped with ACAS, and could ACAS avert
       | this type of collision?
        
       | csharpminor wrote:
       | I'd be curious to know from someone with more knowledge: are
       | there any technological improvements that could prevent this kind
       | of accident?
       | 
       | It seems as though it should be possible (though perhaps not
       | easy) to automatically detect an aircraft on runway and relay
       | that to the approaching aircraft.
       | 
       | With all respect for the coast guard pilots who died, I would say
       | this incident is the "best case" scenario we could hope for when
       | two large aircraft crash on a runway. Had the other plane been
       | carrying passengers the casualties could have easily been in the
       | hundreds.
       | 
       | It seems odd to me that with all the safety advancements in
       | aviation we don't have the technology to prevent this.
        
         | matwood wrote:
         | Some airports do have ground lighting that changes when it's
         | safe/unsafe to enter/cross runways. No idea if that existed
         | here. I know JFK has it, as I watched it in action the last
         | time I had a layover.
        
       | InTheArena wrote:
       | The big take0away here is that the 90 second rule that Airbus
       | fought _and lost_ with the A380 and Boeing thought about fighting
       | with the 787 and 777 is exactly right. Sometimes every second
       | matters.
       | 
       | A second take-away - emergencies are no excuse to ditch procedure
       | and thinking about Safety. The SFO incident where a passenger was
       | killed after exiting a vehicle by a vehicle rushing to the plane
       | is another example.
        
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