[HN Gopher] How is AI impacting science?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       How is AI impacting science?
        
       Author : occamschainsaw
       Score  : 81 points
       Date   : 2023-12-30 00:10 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (michaelnotebook.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (michaelnotebook.com)
        
       | freetonik wrote:
       | Anecdotal, but I've talked to some physicists working in the
       | field of quantum computing, and some of them think that it's
       | possible that advancements in AI will provide somewhat efficient
       | solutions to some computational problems (namely in the NP
       | class), and the solutions will be "good enough" for actual
       | businesses (e.g. in logistics) and researchers (e.g. in
       | chemistry), to a degree that it might negatively affect future
       | funding for quantum computing research. And the pace of
       | advancement in AI will continue to accelerate, while the pace of
       | advancements in quantum computing is notoriously slow.
        
         | ysofunny wrote:
         | I think AI and quantum computing are really the same thing, the
         | difference being the same as girltalk in contrast with boytalk.
         | 
         | what I'm saying is that there's no quantum computing; but I
         | actually mean to say I simply do not understand whatever
         | 'quantum' means in the context of computing given my own
         | opinions of what computing really is (I have a philosophical
         | opinion).
         | 
         | in my view (as distorted and twisted as it is), what quantum
         | computing devices really do is sensing or measuring. computing
         | is classical in nature and no amount of hand waving will change
         | this.
         | 
         | whatever happens to logic in a qubit? if both A and B are
         | anything between 0 and 1, what's the negation of such a thing?
        
           | tux3 wrote:
           | >whatever happens to logic in a qubit? if both A and B are
           | anything between 0 and 1, what's the negation of such a
           | thing?
           | 
           | The problem is the pop sci explanation where qbits are
           | everything between 0 and 1 at the same time is super wrong
           | and misleading.
           | 
           | Your qbits are in states that have "amplitudes". You do
           | things that change the amplitudes, and that happens to do
           | computation. From the amplitudes of your qbits, you can
           | figure out what the _probabilities_ of observing different
           | outcomes is.
           | 
           | It's not that the qbit is anything between 0 and 1. It's in a
           | precise state, that results in percentage probabilities for
           | different outcomes.
           | 
           | The negation of true 80% of the time is false 80% of the
           | time.
        
             | firtoz wrote:
             | To be fair, in some quantum computers, it does work. For
             | example if you count a beam of photons following the same
             | path with (almost) all possible polarization combinations
             | as a qubit, that is indeed closer to "everything between",
             | however it's got limited utility indeed when compared to
             | the broader view.
        
           | gcr wrote:
           | Apologies in advance--I don't know how to say this in a
           | loving way, but I also don't mean to pass judgment--couldn't
           | this just be a skill issue? Why not look into how quantum
           | computing works and resolve that once and for all?
           | 
           | https://quantum.country/ is a pretty approachable starting
           | point if you're curious. The math is no more intimidating
           | than any other skilled discipline.
        
             | ysofunny wrote:
             | you can just say it, it's not worse than getting downvoted
             | for having off colored opinions
             | 
             | "aren't you just too stupid to understand?"
             | 
             | maybe I am... maybe I just think differently with another
             | brand of depth
             | 
             | what I wonder now, given another comment about amplitudes,
             | is what happens to combinatorics? (and alphabets, and
             | languages as sequences of strings from finite alphabets)
             | but it's just simpler to dismiss me as foolish idiot.
        
               | wegfawefgawefg wrote:
               | People responded with civility which, in retrospect, you
               | may not have deserved.
        
           | firtoz wrote:
           | Regarding the negation, you can consider it in a few
           | different ways, depending on your use case.
           | 
           | If your qubit is "all values", the negation is the lack of
           | any value, e.g. "a measurement that results to 0".
           | 
           | However, in most cases, you will have a segment within the
           | possibilities. E.g. one qubit can hold "vertically polarised
           | light at frequencies between X and Y at phase P", then the
           | negation could be one of "horizontally polarised light at
           | that frequency and phase", or, more common, same polarization
           | and frequency but the phase is 180 degrees off P. That way,
           | if you add them together, you get the cancellation. Another
           | negation is "all other possible combinations".
           | 
           | However I must note that when you call a qubit "all possible
           | combinations" that's not a typical qubit value.
           | 
           | Think of it like this, "binary" is "0 or 1", but a "binary
           | value" is only one of either 0 or 1. A qubit value is,
           | depending on your interpretation, photons of some
           | polarisation, frequency and phase, or electrons of a
           | particular spin, or some other combination of those. Some of
           | those can have multiple combinations, for example a qubit
           | value could be the combination of a bunch of photons at
           | different values. Or, an electron with an "unknown spin". Or
           | an electron with an unknown spin that's the complement of
           | another electron at another unknown spin, but when you
           | measure either you will reveal the other, and so on. So, only
           | some qubit values will have "all possible combinations" i.e.
           | "when observed, it could literally be anything".
           | 
           | The internal of "what was the value before you observe it"
           | is, well, controversial, and to most people, almost
           | irrelevant, and even, "not good to consider".
        
           | wegfawefgawefg wrote:
           | Im just as ignorant as you about it. The quantum part to me
           | doesnt seem to matter. I don't see why its any fundamentally
           | different from making a computer out of any other substrate.
           | Light, sand, chemicals, at the end of the day you compute a
           | function by following a set of steps which may or may not
           | have constraints of seriality.
           | 
           | I think von neumann cant handle purely parralel algorithms
           | efficiently. Even gpus. I think thats whats where the "all
           | qbits interacting simultaniously for n steps after being put
           | in initial conditions" is about. Its purely parralel.
           | 
           | It could be the case that information cant be extracted
           | before it is computed, and that for some algorithms the peak
           | efficiency serial version is equal to the best efficiency
           | purely parralel version. It could also be the case thats not
           | true and that classes of quantum algorithms could be better.
           | 
           | At the end if the day the way i see it substrate is just an
           | engineered means of applied ops per time.
        
             | RandomLensman wrote:
             | The quantum part does matter in the sense that certain
             | kinds of "maths" are not directly accessible in a classical
             | computer. You can sort of simulate Shor's algorithm on a
             | classical computer but you cannot get the same low
             | complexity. Of course, whether the quantum computer uses
             | substrate A or B doesn't matter (other than practically).
             | 
             | The only way I ever found an access to understanding
             | quantum computing is by doing the math, as other pop-sci
             | explanations don't really reflect what is happening (at
             | least for me).
        
         | moffkalast wrote:
         | Well that sounds like good news, are there any practical
         | applications for quantum computing other than breaking commonly
         | used encryption that would push the modern world even further
         | towards a complete surveillance state?
        
           | firtoz wrote:
           | I'm not in the field but in my understanding it's going to
           | make it easier to do parallel competitions and also will
           | allow us to find the inputs that can lead to a particular
           | output in some types of equations. Factoring numbers is only
           | one of the "practical" equations.
           | 
           | Materials science and chemistry (e.g. predicting how drugs
           | may behave in our bodies) will benefit, or other
           | computationally heavy "try out many permutations and see
           | which ones fall though" tasks may become a bit easier.
           | Climate modelling, supply chain logistics, financial
           | modelling, and of course AI.
        
           | dragontamer wrote:
           | The #1 proposed use of quantum computers is... simulating
           | quantum effects.
           | 
           | Modern quantum simulators running on supercomputers is an
           | exponential (O(k^n)) kind of operation. But a quantum
           | computer can simulate any quantum effect in just one step,
           | O(1) time. Because ya know... a quantum computer is just a
           | computer that has isolated quantum effects and allows a
           | programmer to control them easily.
        
         | canjobear wrote:
         | Quantum doesn't help for NP problems.
         | 
         | In the case of codebreaking, where QC may have an advantage, AI
         | is unlikely to provide an alternative because modern AI is all
         | based on finding probabilistic patterns and cryptography is
         | explicitly designed to be resistant to that kind of attack.
        
           | firtoz wrote:
           | Can you please elaborate?
        
             | canjobear wrote:
             | The class of this problems where quantum computing gives an
             | advantage is called BQP and it includes things like
             | factoring but it is not known to include NP complete
             | problems like the traveling salesman.
        
               | firtoz wrote:
               | Thank you!
        
           | wegfawefgawefg wrote:
           | I have not programmed a quantum computer before. My current
           | state of ignorance, and so im relying only on intuition here,
           | is that it is massively parralel in the same way that the
           | surface of water in your cup is massively parralel.
           | 
           | To program a serial algorithm in a quantum computer would be
           | to miss the point. You could encode the interactions between
           | clumps of qbits to function as nodes in a wave simulation.
           | 
           | There would be few enough nodes in the wave that it would be
           | not equivalent to a true wave simulation. It would be a
           | discretization, but now it functions as an analog asic like
           | proxy for the real thing. If the groups of qbits are smaller
           | than the true nodes in a wave surface your computation would
           | be faster than the real thing, but lower precision.
           | 
           | In a classical computer this would have to be done with
           | buffers, or a very narrow set of parralel deterministic
           | programs, otherwise impossible. (examples: a subset of
           | cellular automata rules, gravity sort)
           | 
           | Is any of that right or am i completely off base.
        
             | TachyonicBytes wrote:
             | One of the challenges of quantum computing is getting the
             | useful results back into "classical" mode, where you can
             | use them. Theoretically that's one of the hurdles of
             | getting better theoretical performance than a classical
             | computer. What you describe is more akin to how a GPU
             | works, but in this case, you can't "just get" the result
             | from the GPU.
        
             | dragontamer wrote:
             | Quantum is not parallel.
             | 
             | Quantum is quantum. We did a few quantum gate simulations
             | in my college back in the day.
             | 
             | The gist is that entangling bits (say b0, b1, b2, b3 are
             | all entangled), has special properties. You can almost
             | perform retroactive computing. you can send these values to
             | quantum gates to define properties, like b0 + b1 = b2 * b3.
             | 
             | Later, you unentangled the values and they will 'snap' into
             | some true state. Like b0,b1,b2,b3 == 1111, but the values
             | 0001 or 0010 are also possible.
             | 
             | There is nothing 'parallel' about this. It's just a quantum
             | operator using the properties of entanglement /
             | disentanglement for the purposes of computation.
             | 
             | -------
             | 
             | I'd say that quantum is closer to retroactive computing
             | than parallel. Operations seemingly go backwards in time
             | thanks to entanglement.
             | 
             | That doesn't mean quantum is useful in all algorithms, but
             | it seemingly has applications in cryptography and 3SAT / NP
             | Complete and... Lol simulations of quantum effects.
             | 
             | --------
             | 
             | Ultimately, Quantum is only useful if you get enough bits
             | at a time entangled. For now, it's faster for standard
             | computers to brute-force all 2^32 bit combinations rather
             | than using lasers+diamonds to entangle 32-bits and perform
             | the operations.
             | 
             | Quantum needs more entanglement and at lower costs to
             | become competitive. But maybe it happens. At very least,
             | quantum computers do exist but who knows how long it will
             | be before they are competitive.
        
           | daveed wrote:
           | ^ Just pointing out, the parent didn't say NP-hard or
           | -complete, so they weren't wrong (but could be
           | misunderstood). But saying Quantum doesn't help for NP isn't
           | right either.
        
             | canjobear wrote:
             | Fair enough!
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | > Quantum doesn't help for NP problems.
           | 
           | Notice that the GP is about the other way around. Solving NP-
           | hard problems will absolutely make quantum computers useless.
           | 
           | And in the case of physics simulation (the actually valuable
           | use for a quantum computer), there's no guarantee that you
           | can't find a probabilistic solution.
        
         | sanderjd wrote:
         | Yep, I'm very interested in "good enough" optimization
         | techniques using ML, to massively speed up optimization
         | problems that require a lot of computation that doesn't
         | parallelize easily. I'm not an expert in it, but I work
         | adjacent to it, and it seems like a promising direction to me.
        
         | nickpsecurity wrote:
         | They've always gotten lots of funding in quantum for techniques
         | with big promises that haven't delivered yet. I'm not even
         | saying they're misleading us so much as it has had basically no
         | payoff compared to HPC, FPGA's, and even analog computing.
         | 
         | The bigger concern of companies like that is if someone
         | bankrolls dirt-cheap FPGA's or Adapteva-style cores with open
         | architectures targeted by a toolchain like Synflow's or Cray's
         | Chapel. From there, domain-specific applications (esp optimized
         | kernels) targeting those tools. Then, MPP-style hardware as
         | cheap as commodity servers to scale it up and out. I'm talking
         | engineering the thing by combining proven strategies, not doing
         | new research.
         | 
         | Even $100 million put into such systems would deliver more
         | value in more areas than $1 billion put into quantum computing.
         | If not, we'd at least get huge speed-ups with the parallel
         | architectures for a while and then the QC folks eventually
         | deliver something better in some areas. I'd be happy both ways
         | so long as one is in my building or it's in the cloud for
         | $2.30/hr. :)
        
       | t_mann wrote:
       | It's from May, pity, it would have been really interesting if the
       | author had discussed DeepMind's recent FunSearch paper as well:
       | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06924-6
       | 
       | But it goes to show just how fast we are currently progressing.
        
         | nickpsecurity wrote:
         | Someone needs to host an event where those people, others doing
         | genetic programming, and those doing executable synthesis are
         | all in the same place. Let them bounce ideas off each other.
         | All their brainstorming is recorded to be published into the
         | public domain.
         | 
         | We might see some interesting combos.
         | 
         | EDIT: Maybe use a sample from the Humies as benchmarks for the
         | techniques, including new LLM's. Let people try every approach
         | in parallel mixing the best of each.
         | 
         | https://human-competitive.org/awards
        
       | vouaobrasil wrote:
       | > how to predict the 3-dimensional structure of a protein from
       | the sequence of amino acids making up that protein
       | 
       | Keep in mind that proteins and deducing the structure of them
       | (which in turn would help deduce their function) may not be a
       | good thing. Proteins can also be poisons, prions, etc.
       | 
       | But beyond that, we should not have such easy to access
       | knowledge. It's just too much power for our current greedy,
       | short-term thinking.
        
         | JackFr wrote:
         | Chipping flints into sharpened edges may not be a good thing.
         | Sharpened flints can also be stone axes, spear heads, etc.
         | 
         | But beyond that, we should not have such easy to access cutting
         | technology. It's just too much power for our current greedy,
         | short-term thinking.
        
           | vouaobrasil wrote:
           | Glib analogy, but there's got to be a limit to everything.
           | Beyond resorting to superficial analogies, we should give
           | serious thought into what level of technology is simply too
           | much.
           | 
           | Moreover, I actually agree with you in some ways, even though
           | you meant to be sarcastic. Modern cutting technology, which
           | certainly should include deep-well oil drilling, IS too much.
           | 
           | In fact, all technology has a limit beyond which we should
           | not go. We just have to apply deep thinking to figure out
           | what it is, or at least do our best to try.
           | 
           | You
        
             | _factor wrote:
             | You're more likely to get cut with a dull knife. It can
             | cause it to slip.
             | 
             | Technology is fine. It's this artificial cookie-cutter
             | society we're forcing on everyone. We have a mental health
             | and education problem.
             | 
             | The tech isn't the issue, it's the people who feel the need
             | to use it for negative purposes.
             | 
             | Limiting tech is just a bandaid.
        
               | vouaobrasil wrote:
               | People will always use technology for negative purposes
               | as long as it can help them get ahead in the short term
               | and they aren't held accountable for the long-term
               | consequences.
               | 
               | Technology is not fine. Not all of it is bad, but to say
               | all of it is fine makes no sense. Yes, we have a mental
               | and health education problem, but it's reasonable to have
               | rules for all societies. Limiting technology that makes
               | getting ahead too easy makes sense because even in the
               | most utopian and good societies, if gaining something is
               | TOO EASY, then it WILL be taken.
               | 
               | It's much too simplistic to frame technology as fine. If
               | all technology is fine, perhaps every corner store should
               | sell automatic weapons? Can you imagine a society, ANY
               | society, in which this makes sense?
        
               | jabradoodle wrote:
               | Nowhere did OP suggest limiting tech, they suggested we
               | are not ready to handle the powers we are gaining
               | responsibily.
               | 
               | Your point seems in agreement with this to a degree.
               | 
               | More importantly, you claim it to be a mental
               | health/education issue; yet you can't show me a period of
               | human history without wars and power struggles.
        
             | JackFr wrote:
             | I was being sarcastic, I don't think I was necessarily
             | being glib.
             | 
             | I suppose the deeper point I was trying to make was that
             | "this time is different/special" is shallow thinking, as is
             | believing that the real issue is with our "current greedy
             | short term thinking".
             | 
             | The real issue is the human condition, which remains
             | largely as it has throughout our history. We need to choose
             | a way to live knowing we will die, and then live that way.
        
               | vouaobrasil wrote:
               | This time is different....highest CO2 level in 800,000
               | years, highest human population ever. Seems like a bit of
               | uniqueness there.
        
             | wegfawefgawefg wrote:
             | Cars can be used to ram people. But most people simply dont
             | want to do that.
             | 
             | What is different about cars and new tech is that new tech
             | comes with the ability to track and monitor all users. So
             | historically we didnt mind if one in ten million people
             | wanted to ram people with their truck on purpose. But now
             | the power to monitor everyone all the time to prevent these
             | "one in ten million" crimes exists.
             | 
             | Its up to you to decide if the trade off is worth it.
        
             | wegfawefgawefg wrote:
             | I want to become a von neumann probe, fill the universe
             | with my offspring and go to war.
             | 
             | Until tech can do that it hasnt gone far enough.
        
         | johngossman wrote:
         | How do you feel about antibiotics? How do you feel about
         | medical advances that reduced infant mortality from more than
         | 20% in the 19th century to less than 1%? How about the
         | elimination of smallpox or how fertilizer and other
         | agricultural technologies have eliminated most famines. Now how
         | about possible cures for cancer or alzheimer's? You need a much
         | more nuanced answer than "we should not have such easy access
         | to knowledge."
        
           | vouaobrasil wrote:
           | > How do you feel about antibiotics? How do you feel about
           | medical advances that reduced infant mortality from more than
           | 20% in the 19th century to less than 1%? How about the
           | elimination of smallpox or how fertilizer and other
           | agricultural technologies have eliminated most famines. Now
           | how about possible cures for cancer or alzheimer's?
           | 
           | Like everything else, it's only good up to a point!
           | 
           | - I believe in basic medical care, but medical technology
           | that permits immortality is bad.
           | 
           | - Likewise, is reducing mortality always good? Now we have
           | extreme overpopulation. In short, reducing OUR mortality has
           | also INCREASED the mortality of non-human animals, which I
           | believe have just as much right to live as us.
           | 
           | - Fertilizer and agriculture? Most industrial fertilizer
           | poisons the land and agriculture has eliminated millions of
           | acres of wild forest and destroyed a lot of ecosystem.
           | Agriculture is also responsible for the huge population
           | growth that is causing global warming.
           | 
           | - Cure for cancer? Maybe good, maybe bad IF that cure results
           | in significantly extended lifetimes due to how it works.
           | 
           | I do have MANY more nuanced answers. That is why I believe in
           | looking at each of your points AND others individually. My
           | answer was specifically directed at AI, which I believe to be
           | universally bad.
           | 
           | Most of the technologies you listed have significant negative
           | consequences, and it's not clear to me that those are
           | outweighed by the positives, especially if our modern society
           | results in the destruction of the phytoplankton of the ocean
           | producing half our oxygen.
           | 
           | I suspect in the long term, it would be better to have more
           | mortality, smaller populations, and less technology than our
           | current world. It's not a popular view because people are
           | emotional about such things, but it's hard to imagine how a
           | world with 8+billion and mass eco-destruction to be better IN
           | THE LONG TERM.
        
             | BrainBacon wrote:
             | I wholeheartedly disagree with your assertions on
             | mortality. Global population growth is slowing and is set
             | to peak in the 2060s and will decline afterwards. We're
             | more at risk of not having enough hands to take care of an
             | aging population. An educated populace has fewer children
             | and many countries are already feeling the strain of being
             | below the replacement rate.
        
             | johngossman wrote:
             | Yes, strangely, people get emotional about being asked to
             | let their kids die of scarlet fever and other bacterial
             | infections. I'm a birder too, but some new luddism isn't
             | going to save the environment. If we stop where we're at,
             | we're stuck burning fossil fuels, stuck with slash-and-
             | burning the Amazon. If you want save to animals, you need
             | better messaging than "maybe cancer isn't bad." Look around
             | the world, places with great longevity have lower
             | population growth, not higher. Places with better economies
             | and more technology are also greener. When you say things
             | like "AI is universally bad" you're making an ethical
             | judgement about a means rather than an end and ruling out
             | many possible good ends. You've read Peter Singer, now go
             | read Hans Rosling.
        
               | vouaobrasil wrote:
               | My message isn't that "cancer isn't bad". It's that
               | medical research into cancer may lead to other outcomes
               | which are definitely not good.
               | 
               | Yes, I am making an ethical judgment about the means of
               | AI, because after some analysis I do believe that the
               | negative effects will be far worse than the positive.
               | True, there are good applications of it. I never denied
               | that.
               | 
               | Of course, my line of reasoning is far more vast than
               | what I wrote here. I'm just arguing a specific point
               | here, not presenting a thesis. I do think there is more
               | to saving animals than arguing against human growth. Of
               | course, people need incentives.
        
             | nick__m wrote:
             | You says you have nuanced view yet you make universal
             | statement don't you see a contradiction?
             | 
             | Take your stand on AI, which is more diverse than the LLMs
             | and diffusion models that are currently making the news.
             | Would it be bad to replace peoples by computer vision and
             | robotics in a waste sorting center, enabling more recycling
             | and less microplastics in the environment due to a better
             | sorting of the waste stream ?
             | 
             | I see that as a good thing enabled by AI.
        
               | vouaobrasil wrote:
               | AI for me is an exception to my nuance, simply because
               | it's too powerful and has too many horrible consequences.
               | Yes, your application could be considered good. But what
               | happens if there are people at the waste recycling plant
               | who can't get other jobs? It's not a nice job but we have
               | to first figure out what those people can do.
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | How do you feel about extremes?
           | 
           | Antibiotics have saved billions of peoples lives from an
           | early death. But use of antibiotics in farm animals is
           | putting us at risk again via resistant superbugs that are
           | sending us scrambling for new drugs to combat them.
           | 
           | Or, to take the analogy to 11, should each individual on the
           | planet have access to a button that if pushed would cause the
           | planet to explode? I seems reasonable the answer would be no,
           | but now how do you set up a system of rules limiting who has
           | access to the technology to make that button?
        
             | wegfawefgawefg wrote:
             | 1. These are not even comparable dangers. Reduction in
             | infant mortalty by 98% versus what.. some hormone issues
             | sometimes in some people??
             | 
             | 2. The laws of physics have so far prevented us from making
             | technology like a tiny portable button that blows up a
             | planet. Id assume a universe with weak energy constraints
             | like that would have yielded much larger scale organisms,
             | or perhaps none at all.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Uh you don't comprehend 1 then.
               | 
               | 1 is you get a scratch then die because your body rots
               | and you can do nothing about it. May want to spend some
               | time learning about antibiotics resistance.
        
             | johngossman wrote:
             | Funnily enough, I wrote a sci-fi story a long time ago
             | where there was a machine like the replicator in Star Trek
             | that could make anything, but it was easy to turn it into a
             | gigaton bomb.
        
       | BiasRegularizer wrote:
       | Although the article focused primarily on AlphaFold, many other
       | ML approaches are making impactful contributions in the general
       | scientific field. One example is the diffusion model and its use
       | of stochastic differential equations (SDEs).
       | 
       | Microsoft has an initiative called AI4Sciencie
       | (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/lab/microsoft-resea...)
       | which published a fair amount of SDE/diffusion-based method to
       | solve scientific problems
        
       | justinl33 wrote:
       | Are there any molecular biologists here? I'm curious: what
       | happens to society if/when we figure out protein folding?
       | Hypothetically, how does the world change if we had a 100%
       | accurate way to model quaternary structure from primary
       | structure?
        
         | namibj wrote:
         | We could do computer-only search for enzymes that catalyze
         | desired reactions in enzyme-friendly reaction environments.
         | Assuming that the way that makes the above 100% accurate also
         | yields us the tooling to simulate the candidates in operation
         | accurate enough to let the search/optimizer learn from the
         | simulation feedback.
        
         | alevskaya wrote:
         | The static shape of a protein doesn't automatically give you a
         | prediction of its functional properties. There's a hell of a
         | lot more biophysics going on that we have no predictive models
         | for that are needed to understand catalysis, allostery,
         | assembly, etc etc etc. We don't even have good comprehensive
         | data for any of that (compared to sequences or structure) to
         | model with.
         | 
         | Fold prediction is an incredibly useful tool for scientists and
         | genetic engineers to help design new proteins, but it doesn't
         | magically solve molecular or cell biology. Designing new
         | functions and mechanisms is still going to involve a huge
         | amount of labor and brute-force experimentation.
        
         | LeonardoTolstoy wrote:
         | My brother worked in protein folding (although his statement
         | about specifically AlphaFold was years after he left that
         | field) but I showed him the AlphaFold results from like 5 years
         | ago and his reaction was "oh ... Yeah they solved protein
         | folding"
         | 
         | So at least according to him we've lived in that world for the
         | last 5 years.
         | 
         | As a person working with / tangentially to people in the same
         | field I would say that it's made things faster and more
         | scalable, but protein structure isn't the be all end all of
         | things. Researchers use AlphaFold a lot for filtering potential
         | candidates, but that is only one step in a lot of steps. A SNP
         | mutation -> protein structure change -> functional change is
         | already difficult without then considering that the vast
         | majority of mutations that create function change in humans are
         | not in exons, so something like AlphaFold (in the form I'm
         | familiar with) would be useless for those as well.
         | 
         | Eventually though an AI system that can go mutation->function
         | change is entirely possible, although it is much much further
         | in the future. In that case though I think you'll be quite
         | close to a future where combined with things like CRISPR
         | therapeutic treatment for all heritable disease would be
         | possible.
        
           | kiba wrote:
           | I heard a lot of different opinion about AlphaFolding, how
           | it's not revolutionary or not revolutionary, or something
           | like that.
        
             | sigmoid10 wrote:
             | It _is_ revolutionary in what it does. There 's no question
             | about it. The problem is that a lot of people think it does
             | something different or more practical, like creating new
             | drugs. That is one of the ultimate goals, but it's way down
             | the road.
        
           | selimthegrim wrote:
           | Counting down to dekhn appearance in 3...
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | Uh ok. Now I feel obliged to say that AlphaFold is the
             | obvious outcome you'd get from having a company dedicated
             | to winning games deciding to win at CASP.
             | 
             | To me, "solving" structure prediction (explicitly
             | acknowledging there are areas where AF doesn't make
             | accurate predictions), is a clear and satisfying win,
             | although it still doesn't answer some of the fundamental
             | physics questions around folding.
             | 
             | I am glad to see the existence proof but want to see more
             | outcomes; in particular, I'd like to see a lab-in-the-loop
             | that actually produces something of high value (higher than
             | the cost of building the lab-in-the-loop).
        
           | carbocation wrote:
           | AlphaFold did not solve protein folding. You can tell this is
           | the case because it doesn't correctly model structures with
           | missense variants.
           | 
           | AlphaFold is a huge advance and people are extending it to
           | try to tackle this (eg AlphaMissense) but to say it solved
           | protein folding is hyperbolic.
        
             | ProllyInfamous wrote:
             | >"AlphaFold can do in TEN MINUTES what a PhD dissertation
             | required, fifteen years ago."
             | 
             | Quoting a PhD immunologist from Texas, who uses AlphaFold
             | daily.
        
               | carbocation wrote:
               | Agreed - and this is not in tension with my comment
               | whatsoever.
        
         | maxlamb wrote:
         | It would not have a huge practical impact in the short term.
         | There are many steps from figuring out protein folding to
         | figuring out new, effective and safe drugs. Here's a good
         | Nature article discussing just that: https://archive.is/4QNKy
        
         | pama wrote:
         | A lot of things become simpler, but hard problems remain. In
         | the cell, a structure of a protein is the result of its
         | sequence and all the other environmental conditions (cofactors,
         | ligands, binding partners, lipids,...), and furthermore, the
         | structure is a dynamical construct, so it can change over time.
         | So the main advance for society is when we can accurately
         | predict how to jam or unblock a machine in a cell without
         | influencing all the other machines in a cell. The essential
         | pieces of this puzzle are the possible shapes of the pieces
         | that make up the machines and AF2 gives you those. But the
         | puzzle is huge. And very important.
        
         | wegfawefgawefg wrote:
         | Even if we had a perfect library of useful proteins and their
         | utilities, the composition of these protiens, and the emergent
         | behaviour within "machines" made by them, would be complex
         | enough to be handfuls of classes of new engineering altogethor.
         | 
         | I think its like saying "we know how to make bricks and iron
         | and bolts now, shouldnt it be easy to make a full scale
         | functioning replica of the greater tokyo metropolitan area?"
         | 
         | Even if you came up with a spec for a complex tissue or just a
         | fluid that functions as a standalone chemical factory, you
         | would need to fabricate it. However many specific protiens from
         | your library, in specific ratios, mixed and maybe even...
         | positioned.
         | 
         | In short protein folding is just the first fundamental step
         | towards this print any biological design out of proteins world
         | that I guessed you are alluding to.
        
         | arccy wrote:
         | there was a talk about this a few days ago
         | https://media.ccc.de/v/37c3-12061-alphafold_how_machine_lear...
        
         | justinl33 wrote:
         | okay so the prevailing sentiment seems to be: a) We kind of
         | already have b) it's a big deal but not that big of a deal
         | because knowing the precise protein structure does not become
         | useful until you know how that structure interacts
         | 
         | So my takeaway is that we just need sufficiently advanced
         | quantum computers that can do molecule-level simulation on a
         | large cell, THEN we'll be there.
        
       | Erratic6576 wrote:
       | I'm not a scientist but I enjoy reading the literary genre they
       | write (the headlines). Most of the time, the articles themselves
       | are hard or impossible to understand.
       | 
       | ChatGPT can lend a helping hand
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Anyone here who knows a good project that attempts to solve large
       | sparse linear systems using ML, preferably in Python?
        
       | Balgair wrote:
       | I know the article focused on the deeper/code-ier aspects of AI.
       | However, I think that it's mundane aspects are going to be huge.
       | 
       | I once had a co-researcher that asked for help with his Matlab
       | code. We were in a smell-lab together working on mice. His code
       | was about controlling some scent valves in response to a mouse
       | putting it's nose in a hole and breaking a laser beam.
       | Importantly, this code was running his thesis, essentially, and
       | he had no coding experience prior to this experiment.
       | 
       | I said sure, I'd love to help, but you owe me a six-pack. So we
       | sat down one day and started going through his Matlab code. After
       | the 18th nested 'if' statement, I had to up the payment to a case
       | of beer.
       | 
       | LLMs would have helped my co-researcher out a _lot_. He might
       | have actually gotten the code working at least.
       | 
       | Most HNers don't appreciate, I think, how difficult coding is
       | most people. AIs are already helping bridge that gap.
       | 
       | Another more mundane area is in communication. Research papers
       | are notorious for being obtuse and jargon filled, to the point
       | where many fields are nearly speaking another language entirely.
       | AIs can help with that as well. Not only in the writing side, but
       | also in the reading side. Can can put a paper into them and ask
       | for summaries, you can put multiple papers in and ask for review
       | papers. You must be very careful, of course, but the speed
       | increase is just amazing.
        
         | boredtofears wrote:
         | How would they know if the code produced by ChatGPT had a side
         | effect that effected their research? Isn't it risky to not
         | fully understand the behavior of your experiment?
        
           | kian wrote:
           | I think in this case that problem even exists in their own
           | code that they don't fully understand.
        
           | _giorgio_ wrote:
           | Breaking down code in cells and asking chatGPT for help is
           | quite easy and mostly foolproof, if you have enough will to
           | learn things.
        
             | dpflan wrote:
             | Indeed, build up the complexity from smaller, verifiable
             | code components.
        
           | Balgair wrote:
           | I get what you're saying, but the reality is that most
           | researchers aren't any more code literate than the average
           | person. Which is to say, they know just enough to make things
           | worse. Hopefully those errors are removed before publication,
           | but in my experience, they are not. Especially when it comes
           | to coding.
           | 
           | Also, a larger point is that this was fundamental research. A
           | very hard thing. You're supposed to be getting it wrong most
           | of the time. Then when you think you've got it right, you try
           | to publish. Then you hope the reviewers actually read
           | anything you wrote and catch all the errors [0]. But a lot of
           | the time, errors sneak through and really only get discovered
           | after a few years/decades. That's fine in the end, as science
           | is a 'strongest-link' system where we really only care about
           | the big and correct discoveries. 'Weak-link' systems are the
           | opposite, they are governed by the small little falsehoods
           | and errors.
           | 
           | [0] Very unlikely, reviews almost always only review to see
           | if the paper is of a high enough quality for the journal to
           | include. I want to be clear on this point: Reviewers do not
           | re-do experiments and typically do not go back through your
           | math, let alone the code you used. Now, each field is
           | different and has different standards, and those vary wildly.
           | But generally, reviewers aren't there to make sure the
           | science is right.
        
             | kiba wrote:
             | It sounds like that researchers should just learn to
             | properly code.
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | If the set theorists knew how to farm, then we wouldn't
               | need the NSF to give them money.
        
         | nitwit005 wrote:
         | You have to understand the code the AI emits, to be able to
         | check if it's done what you wanted. That's sometimes more
         | challenging than writing it yourself, as it may use features
         | you're not familiar with.
         | 
         | Which is not to say it can't be useful, but don't expect a cure
         | all.
        
           | IanCal wrote:
           | What they're describing is dealing with a person who already
           | doesn't understand what their code does.
        
           | mettamage wrote:
           | Reading code is easier than starting from scratch. Not sure
           | how that is for a researcher though, just my SWE perspective
        
             | sdenton4 wrote:
             | They're different kinds of easy...
             | 
             | Writing fresh code is easy because you just express your
             | ideas. What's hard is hitting all the contingencies
             | appropriately; it can take years of 'burn in' to get right.
             | 
             | Reading code is easy - especially if you don't know the
             | language well - because someone has already assembled all
             | the correct syntax, etc. What's hard is that the code may
             | be convoluted from years of monkey-patches to handle all
             | those inconvenient contingencies, to the point of obscuring
             | the core ideas. eg, making you search through ten nested
             | indirections to figure out how something actually
             | executes...
             | 
             | On the writing side, LLM's make it much easier to have the
             | idiomatics of the language easily on hand. (eg, I never
             | ever remember the exact way to use 'super' in python... but
             | ML assistance is happy to fill in the parens as soon as I
             | start them.)
        
           | block_dagger wrote:
           | I think the gap is quickly narrowing on the need to fully
           | comprehend most computer programs for most use cases,
           | especially if bugs and changes can all be managed through
           | natural language by the primary stakeholders.
        
       | CJefferson wrote:
       | I can tell you one impact -- there are huge amounts of ChatGPT
       | helped, or entirely written, junk papers appearing at
       | conferences, which is causing serious problems getting reviewers.
       | Some large events have introduced a pre-review phase to filter
       | out junk, but it's getting harder, as LLMs are good at producing
       | plausable looking nonsense.
       | 
       | Honestly, I'm not sure of the long term solution here.
       | Conferences and journals may have to introduce a system where you
       | need an existing member of the community to "vouch" for your work
       | to be allowed to submit (they don't have to say it should be
       | published, just worth reviewing).
        
         | fastneutron wrote:
         | LLM-written content has a certain gestalt to it that's pretty
         | easy to sniff out once you've seen it a few times, just look at
         | Quora and LinkedIn these days.
         | 
         | While I think it's probably fair for people with English as a
         | second language to use LLMs as a writing assistant (for
         | example), there definitely needs to be some kind of author
         | disclosure statement at the very least. This could be similar
         | to how more papers are now including contribution statements
         | when there are many coauthors.
        
           | corethree wrote:
           | That gestalt can easily be smoothed out. You simply need to
           | prompt LLM to do so in your query. Tell the LLM to depart
           | from its default style. Say _make your response more brief,
           | well written and add a witty conclusion at the end_
           | 
           | Then you say rewrite the final paragraph to be slightly
           | shorter and incorporate a certain example. Yada yada.
           | 
           | Likely you can even do this "write your response in a style
           | that is not typical for an LLM"
        
             | throwup238 wrote:
             | It's easier to illustrate with prose: ask it to write in
             | the style of Terry Pratchett or Hunter S Thompson and the
             | style changes drastically. You can even ask it to rewrite
             | your scientific paper in the style of Shakespeare: https://
             | chat.openai.com/share/498804da-6d59-4a0c-91d1-da4cea...
        
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