[HN Gopher] Constellations are younger than continents
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Constellations are younger than continents
        
       Author : dash2
       Score  : 262 points
       Date   : 2023-12-25 05:39 UTC (17 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.lesswrong.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.lesswrong.com)
        
       | runsWphotons wrote:
       | How accurately could we predict when betelgeuse will go? What are
       | the CIs?
        
         | geuis wrote:
         | Part of the problem is that direct observations of supernovas
         | is small and indirect. We have small numbers of recorded
         | occurrences to judge from.
        
           | ianburrell wrote:
           | Also, we don't have observations of the stars before
           | supernova. Most are in other galaxies so don't even see the
           | star. Betelgeuse is first case where we can observe late
           | stage star closely.
        
         | MengerSponge wrote:
         | Literally any moment in the next 10000 years. The probability
         | distribution (afaict) is pretty flat, and either 1000, 10000,
         | or 1000000 years long.
        
       | rini17 wrote:
       | Animation from GAIA data:
       | https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Videos/2020/12/Gaia_s_ste...
        
       | Rhaomi wrote:
       | https://www.theonion.com/darling-i-will-give-you-the-moon-an...
        
       | kybernetikos wrote:
       | I think the constellations through the ages chart make it clear
       | that orion has been recognisable long enough to see continents
       | change and will be recognisable for a long time to come.
        
         | bleuarff wrote:
         | The article goes on to say these stars are very young at ~10My,
         | which is about the smallest time scale at which you might
         | notice some change on continents'aspect. So you're probably
         | technically right, but by a very thin margin.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | Did you read the article? The stars in Orion are only between 6
         | and 12 million years old, and the continents already looked
         | almost the same as today in that time frame. Furthermore, they
         | are types of stars that won't live very long, at most 20
         | million more years. Betelgeuse will go supernova within just
         | the next 100,000 years. The Orion stars will see a little bit
         | of continental movement over their lifetime, but not "rise and
         | fall".
        
       | nickdothutton wrote:
       | There is a nice simulation of constellations changing over time
       | in one of the episodes of Sagan's Cosmos, where he explains
       | parallax and some of the other important phenomena.
        
         | 082349872349872 wrote:
         | H A Rey _The Stars_ (1952) had a nice series of cartoons
         | depicting a caveman, a grey-flannel-suit man, and a futuristic
         | man all looking at their respective versions of the big dipper.
         | 
         | The Barbers' _When They Severed Earth From Sky_ (2004)
         | hypothesises that the various kingship changes in heaven of
         | several ancient mythologies correspond to the precession of the
         | solstices and equinoxes through the zodiac. Eg, for Greek
         | mythology, they give:                   Head God    Summer
         | Spring         CHAOS       Libra     Cancer
         | ~6480 BC         OURANOS     Virgo     Gemini
         | ~4320 BC         KRONOS      Leo       Taurus
         | ~2160 BC         ZEUS        Cancer    Aries
         | 
         | along with parallel tables for Babylonian, Hittite, Phoenician,
         | and Norse mythologies, and reference a different work which
         | should give Germanic, Finnic, Iranian, Indian, and Chinese
         | mythological shifts.
         | 
         | According to this hypothesis, when the fall equinox moved into
         | Virgo and Saturn and Jupiter came into conjunction with Pisces
         | in 6 BC, many ancients took it as marking the advent of a new
         | Kingdom of Heaven ruling a New Age, making them more
         | susceptible to picking up new religions emanating from the
         | middle east around that time, eg Mithraism.
         | 
         | Does Virgil, writing ca 40 BC, predict the New Age? [Fourth
         | Eclogue 4-10]
         | 
         | > _Now is come the last age of Cumaean song; the great line of
         | the centuries begins anew. Now the Virgin returns, the reign of
         | Saturn returns; now a new generation descends from heaven on
         | high. Only do you, pure Lucina, smile on the birth of the
         | child, under whom the iron brood shall at last cease and a
         | golden race spring up throughout the world!_
         | 
         | (but note that by this counting the "Age of Aquarius" wouldn't
         | be due to start until ca 2160; rather far off in human
         | lifetimes from the 1960s)
        
           | nickdothutton wrote:
           | This is tremendous. One could write a book relating well
           | documented history and mythology with the changing
           | constellations.
        
         | whartung wrote:
         | I actually remember a couple of diagrams in a science book way
         | back in elementary school, so we're talking 70s here, showing
         | the Big Dipper today and what it would look like in 50,000
         | years.
         | 
         | It was a kind of weird feeling as a young boy "seeing" change
         | to something considered so static, and all the deeper
         | considerations from that.
        
           | Tommstein wrote:
           | I've played with Celestia and had it draw the constellations,
           | then zoomed around the galaxy and seen how they got distorted
           | as I moved away from Earth and saw them from different
           | angles. Really drove home that the constellations are three-
           | dimensional arrangements, not flat.
        
       | NKosmatos wrote:
       | This article brought back memories of when I was playing around
       | with astronomy simulation software like Redshift by Maris
       | Multimedia.
       | 
       | I started searching for it, and as it usually goes with HN
       | stories, I ended up on their new/modern version of it over at:
       | https://redshiftsky.com
       | 
       | A brief history of their famous titles (check also aviation) is
       | over at: http://archaic.maris.com/content/indexe5cc.html
       | 
       | Older versions of Redshift can be downloaded/found over at the
       | Internet Archive:
       | 
       | https://archive.org/details/redshift_202204
       | 
       | https://archive.org/details/redshift2
       | 
       | https://archive.org/details/Redshift_3_Maris_Multimedia_1998
        
         | asystole wrote:
         | There's also the FLOSS Stellarium: http://stellarium.org/
        
       | bjackman wrote:
       | Also: Polaris (the north star) is younger than sharks.
       | 
       | (This one is less interesting as an overall observation about
       | timescales though. Polaris is just quite a young star and sharks
       | are quite and old life form).
        
         | vasco wrote:
         | Trees are also younger than sharks.
        
           | froggit wrote:
           | Sharks were ahead of their time.
        
         | Sharlin wrote:
         | As the article implies, all the brightest stars in Orion are
         | younger than _hominids._ Indeed they formed around the time
         | when the last common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees lived.
        
         | kibwen wrote:
         | Polaris as the north star is younger than the Roman Empire!
         | 
         | Because of the precession of the Earth's axis, Polaris didn't
         | become the north star until about 500 AD. To the ancient
         | Egyptians, Thuban was the north star. When humans were first
         | discovering agriculture 12,000 years ago, Vega was the north
         | star.
         | 
         | Wikipedia has a great table showing the cycle of north stars:
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pole_star#Precession_of_the_...
        
           | xapata wrote:
           | So, that "I am as constant as the northern star" simile is a
           | little mixed?
        
             | MichaelZuo wrote:
             | Constant for a few hundred years until they inevitably get
             | knocked off track.
        
         | throwup238 wrote:
         | Another fun fact: very early humans ( _Australopithecus_ )
         | coexisted with megalodons, giant dinosaur sharks that could
         | swallow a hairless ape whole.
        
         | Nition wrote:
         | Sharks go back more than 3% of the way to the beginning of the
         | universe.
        
       | p-o wrote:
       | These kind of facts always blow my mind. For instance, the Sun
       | orbits the milky way once every 212m years.
       | 
       | That means that if the sun existed from the big bang to now, it
       | would have only done ~63 complete revolutions around Sagittarius
       | A*. If you account for the Milky Way's creation, that number gets
       | even lower. I'm no expert, so maybe this makes sense to someone
       | who knows more about this, but it definitively feel weird to me.
        
         | mihaitodor wrote:
         | I wondered the same thing and I asked Sean Carroll about it
         | [1]. He didn't go into much detail, but here is his answer:
         | 
         | > I guess my only insight is, I'm not sure why you relate the
         | number of revolutions that the Milky Way has made to its
         | complex and symmetric structure. The spiral arms that you see
         | in a galaxy like the Milky Way do not rigidly rotate with it,
         | they are more like... This is complicated, but they are more
         | like regions where star formation is going on, and therefore
         | the galaxy is brighter rather than regions where there's more
         | density or anything like that. So if you're worrying how the
         | spiral structure forms. It can form pretty easily in one or two
         | revolutions, I don't see why it would take even 68, much less,
         | but need more than that.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2023/10/09/ama-...
        
           | firebot wrote:
           | Problem with Sean and most cosmologists is they are
           | proliferate regurgitates with little independent thought.
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | Even before LLMs were dismissed as "stochastic parrots"
             | (and even more so since then), I find myself noticing when
             | people dismiss the intellectual capacity of entire groups.
             | 
             | "Mickey Mouse degrees", https://xkcd.com/793/, the attitude
             | displayed by the bully in "Zero for Conduct" and similar
             | IRL dismissals of the entire ME area in the post 9/11
             | discourse, mid-Brexit politicians saying the country had
             | had enough of experts, some of my fist girlfriends'
             | anecdotes from her childhood, town v gown, ...
        
               | firebot wrote:
               | I don't follow.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | You, like all my examples, are blithely dismissing
               | everyone who does understand a subject that you don't
               | understand.
        
             | ryanklee wrote:
             | I really don't understand how you can put forth a criticism
             | like this and be so vague at the same time. It really
             | undermines your credibility. Be specific or why bother.
        
               | firebot wrote:
               | I have no credibility.
               | 
               | Sean jumps on the hype train all day long. I'm skeptical.
               | I don't think this illustrious dark matter or big bang
               | mean anything. So it's like that telephone game where
               | Sean is the last person and gets to tell you what the
               | first person said and he's always very excited but
               | baseless. Really do like his energy. I just don't think
               | he's much of an independent thinker.
        
         | gattr wrote:
         | Another fun fact: there are more trees on Earth (3x1012) [1]
         | than stars in the Milky Way (1-4x1011).
         | 
         | [1] "Mapping tree density at a global scale"
         | https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967
        
           | dataflow wrote:
           | That fact sounds like it will become fiction very very soon.
           | :\
        
             | fukpaywalls2 wrote:
             | On the postive side, there's probably more microplastics in
             | our oceans than there are stars in all of the galaxies
             | summed together.
        
           | tamimio wrote:
           | Have another fact since we are talking about trees, wood is
           | the rarest element in the universe, even more rare than
           | diamonds, in fact, wood can only be found on earth! A piece
           | of me dies every time I see someone cutting a tree for
           | useless reasons.
        
             | Solvency wrote:
             | Wood isn't an element?
        
             | explaininjs wrote:
             | Do you think cutting a tree annihilates the wood?
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | Depends on your definition of "tree".
           | 
           | My follow-up fun fact is that even though "tree", like
           | "fish", is a term of common parlance, there is _no_
           | universally recognised and precise definition of the
           | category, either botanically or in common language.
        
         | defaultcompany wrote:
         | Agreed. Another surprising one to me is that the earth itself
         | has been around for about 1/3 the age of the universe. I always
         | assumed that the timescale of the universe was vastly longer
         | than the life of the earth.
        
         | k7sune wrote:
         | Wow it's amazing that we could somehow time the orbit period.
        
       | FergusArgyll wrote:
       | Life in West Virginia is younger than the mountains but older
       | than the trees
        
         | ggsp wrote:
         | Isn't life everywhere older than the trees?
        
           | hfgjbcgjbvg wrote:
           | I believe it's a reference to a John Denver song.
        
             | ggsp wrote:
             | Oh, ha, thanks for pointing that out :)
        
           | Semiapies wrote:
           | If you take it as "life on land", it's accurate on both
           | counts. Those are some old mountains.
        
             | jameshart wrote:
             | https://twitter.com/bookishseawitch/status/1572751278366949
             | 3...
             | 
             | "the appalachian mountains are older than saturn's rings.
             | the appalachian mountains are older than dinosaurs. the
             | appalachian mountains are older than trees. the appalachian
             | mountains are literally older than BONES. the appalachian
             | mountains should be regarded with pure terror."
        
         | rpmisms wrote:
         | Here's a yule-flavored reminder that Denver's talking about
         | Western Virginia, since that's where the Blue Ridge mountains
         | are.
         | 
         | He'd also never been here, so he might have just been wrong.
        
           | selimthegrim wrote:
           | This is probably why West Virginia is never going to let go
           | of Harper's Ferry now
        
           | Geisterde wrote:
           | Oh I dont know the history, but I think I could throw a
           | baseball from the 7 and hit west virginia, and if you are on
           | the country roads trying to get around the traffic headed up
           | bluemount you could probably find yourself in west virginia
           | pretty easy.
        
           | 082349872349872 wrote:
           | Speaking of never been there, I'm always amused by what you
           | get when Dutch attempt to interpret the Denver lyrics:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVz_IJoyO6Y
           | 
           | (or for that matter the German notion of western:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrXWdLxtfM )
        
             | rpmisms wrote:
             | The first one sent me into fits. The point is that we're
             | old here, not the wild West. Hilariously, I live in one of
             | the most German areas of Appalachia, so the people look
             | more or less like my neighbors.
             | 
             | The second one would fit in at the CMAs.
        
       | krisoft wrote:
       | Also, not to mention that constellations are a human made
       | construct. It is like how day night cycles are natural, and have
       | existed before us, but calling every seventh cycle "monday" is
       | not.
       | 
       | The stars and their appearance on the sky is natural like the
       | day-night cycles, while how they are grouped together and what
       | they are called is human made. (And different civilisations had
       | wildly differing opinions on how this should be done.)
        
         | nullindividual wrote:
         | Wouldn't Saturday be the seventh cycle, given it is the end of
         | the week?
        
           | JadeNB wrote:
           | > Wouldn't Saturday be the seventh cycle, given it is the end
           | of the week?
           | 
           | Every 7th cycle would be the _start_ of the week; the 6th
           | cycle would be the end. (Think, for example, if you had a
           | 2-day week; the 1st cycle would take you to the 2nd day.) But
           | when the week starts is not universally agreed--I believe
           | USians usually start it on Sunday, and Europeans usually
           | start it on Monday.
        
             | ianburrell wrote:
             | There are seven day weeks, the 1st to 7th. The 8th day is
             | the start of the next week. The 1st cycle is the 1st day.
        
           | evanb wrote:
           | 'Every' modifies the meaning. It's just as sensible and
           | correct to say 'every second number is even' and 'every
           | second number is odd'.
        
         | nine_k wrote:
         | No matter how one would choose to group stars in the sky, the
         | point is that their relative angular closeness varies faster
         | than that of continents on our planet.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | I wonder when we started telling stories about them though.
         | There's not much to do once the sun sets, prior to the
         | invention of the oil lamp.
         | 
         | Unfortunately Orion is still older than most hominids. I can
         | imagine a new constellation triggering the "need" for new
         | stories, but only after language developed.
         | 
         | And while I strongly believe we will continue to push back the
         | beginnings of Man, and of civilization, we are probably past
         | the inflection point. I suspect we aren't likely to quadruple
         | the origin dates for our species. Which is what you'd need to
         | have a plausible story about oral traditions affected by Orion
         | sprouting a new star.
        
       | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
       | I was surprised to learn that Pangaea is believed to have formed
       | and broke up at least five times so far.
        
         | p3rls wrote:
         | Tolkien himself was unsure if we were in the 6th or 7th age
         | 
         | ---
         | 
         | I doubt if there would have been much gain; and I hope the,
         | evidently long but undefined, gap* in time between the Fall of
         | Barad-dur and our Days is sufficient for 'literary
         | credibility', even for readers acquainted with what is known or
         | surmised of 'pre-history'
         | 
         | I imagine the gap to be about 6000 years : that is we are now
         | at the end of the Fifth Age, if the Ages were of about the same
         | length as S.A. and T.A. But they have, I think, quickened; and
         | I imagine we are actually at the end of the Sixth Age, or in
         | the Seventh.
         | 
         | Source - The Letters of J.R.R. Tolkien, Letter 211
        
           | labster wrote:
           | We have basically had to conclude that Tolkien's star
           | Borgil[0] is Aldebaran, because Betelgeuse wasn't a red star
           | in the classical era[1], or before.
           | 
           | [0]: https://tolkiengateway.net/wiki/Borgil [1]:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32478492
        
         | andrewflnr wrote:
         | Pangaea is only the name of the most recent supercontinent. The
         | past ones all have their own names.
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercontinent
        
           | 082349872349872 wrote:
           | Of the 10 on that list, multicellular life appears around #8
           | (Pannotia).
        
       | knorker wrote:
       | Another one: dinosaurs existed on the other side of the galaxy.
       | 
       | The galaxy has revolved about half a revolution since then.
        
         | Tommstein wrote:
         | The Milky Way is also moving through space. So they actually
         | existed way out in intergalactic space (probably).
        
           | mncharity wrote:
           | A UI can combine those two: Sun's galactic orbit as analog-
           | clock selector, and MW motion (wrt CBR, towards Great
           | Attractor) as a slider. Though IIRC, the range of a slider
           | with a finger-tip sized MW is relatively limited. Yay
           | implicit curriculum.
        
       | antognini wrote:
       | There is an interesting theory about the Pleiades star cluster
       | [1]. The Pleiades are somewhat unique in that they are a
       | prominent feature of the sky and close to the celestial equator.
       | Because of that, they are visible to every population on Earth,
       | and every culture has developed a story around them.
       | 
       | Around 2/3 of cultures have a story in which there are seven
       | things (seven sisters, seven boys, seven chickens, and so
       | forth.). The other 1/3 of cultures have a story in which there
       | are six things. And a surprising number of them have a story in
       | which there were originally seven, but one got lost (like in the
       | Greek myth of Electra).
       | 
       | The interesting thing is that two of the stars in the cluster are
       | quite close together and can't be distinguished by eye. A pair of
       | astronomers looked at the proper motions of the stars in the
       | cluster and figured out that tens of thousands of years ago these
       | two stars were far enough apart that they could have been
       | distinguished by eye. So it seems that early humans recognized
       | the Pleiades as having seven stars and this persisted in the
       | myths of most cultures for tens of thousands of years, even when
       | the seventh star was no longer visible.
       | 
       | [1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09170
        
         | Amezarak wrote:
         | Although I like the idea, there's no reason to posit the
         | preservation of the myth of a lost star for tens of thousands
         | of years. People can still see all Seven Sisters under the
         | right conditions, and the right conditions were probably much
         | more prevalent back before the insane degree of light and air
         | pollution that exists today.
         | 
         | https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/many-pleiades-can...
        
           | dharmab wrote:
           | Would this have been true in a society without optics and
           | therefore corrective lenses?
        
             | calamari4065 wrote:
             | When I was young, I was told a story about how native
             | tribes used the star as a vision test for warriors. Only
             | people with excellent vision could discern the second star.
             | 
             | No idea if there's any truth in the story, but I wouldn't
             | be surprised
        
               | antognini wrote:
               | You're probably thinking of Mizar and Alcor, which are at
               | the middle of the handle of the Big Dipper. This was used
               | as a vision test in ancient times and in the middle ages.
               | 
               | A fun fact is that it is actually six stars. Alcor is a
               | binary star system and Mizar is a quadruple star system.
        
               | calamari4065 wrote:
               | That might be it. I was probably 10 at the time so I
               | don't remember the details
        
             | Amezarak wrote:
             | Yes, nearsightedness is much worse in modern times. Many
             | less people needed corrective lenses, even as they got
             | older.
        
         | calamari4065 wrote:
         | This is one of my favorite stories.
         | 
         | One of the best parts is the legend of the seven sisters in
         | Australian aboriginal tradition.
         | 
         | Theory goes that the legend far, far predates first contact
         | with Europeans, so it must have come with the first aboriginal
         | settlers when they sailed from Africa. Which would make it one
         | of (if not the) oldest stories in history.
        
           | tmnvix wrote:
           | Sailed from Africa? I always thought they crossed the Torres
           | Strait.
           | 
           | On a related note, something that has always intrigued me is
           | why there is no historical record of Polynesian arrival on
           | the east coast of Australia.
        
             | calamari4065 wrote:
             | I admit I don't really know. The story I read suggested
             | that settlers sailed from Africa directly. But I don't know
             | what the actual scientific consensus is on this. Really I
             | don't find it particularly interesting as it's mostly
             | guesswork about something 65000 years ago
        
           | Amezarak wrote:
           | Considering all Seven Sisters are visible to people with good
           | vision in sufficiently remote areas of Australia today, I
           | don't know how one can draw any conclusions about how old the
           | story is.
           | 
           | Indeed, with sufficiently good conditions and good vision,
           | you can see _more_ than seven. The Seven Sisters are just the
           | brightest of the Pleiades.
        
             | calamari4065 wrote:
             | Because it's the same seven sisters legend as found in many
             | other places around the world.
             | 
             | Seven sisters chased into the sky by a hunter, and the
             | seventh sister left the sky to marry the hunter.
             | 
             | The aboriginals were isolated from the rest of the world
             | for _tens of thousands_ of years. That their legend is
             | nearly exactly the same as European legends is incredibly
             | unlikely to be coincidence. More likely the legend of the
             | seven sisters is a story that was first told before humans
             | left Africa. All of the Pleiades legends must stem from
             | that original story.
             | 
             | The interesting part isn't that they have _a_ story about
             | the Pleiades, but that it 's the _exact same_ story as
             | everyone else. And they 've been telling it for tens of
             | thousands of years before ever encountering the Europeans.
        
               | Amezarak wrote:
               | I am the last person to promote historical criticism over
               | oral and written traditions, but the case is much weaker
               | than what people who repeat this suggest.
               | 
               | 1. There's a lot of stars, and they were very important
               | to most every ancient culture on Earth.
               | 
               | 2. Our pattern-matching brains are inclined to see
               | vaguely similar things, even across different times and
               | cultures.
               | 
               | 3. Even so, there is very little overlap between
               | Aboriginal constellations and other cultures'
               | constellations.
               | 
               | 4. The aboriginal Australians do not in fact all
               | recognize the Pleiades. Some don't see it as a group at
               | all. Other aboriginal groups actually note differing
               | numbers of sisters (5-7) and have different stories about
               | them, although the motif of fleeing from different men
               | represented by different astronomical objects is a more
               | common one than not.
               | 
               | The case for this is nice to imagine but very weak. It is
               | not the case that "they" have the "exact same story" at
               | all.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | That's a cute idea, but it's extremely unlikely to be true. If
         | nothing else, the human fascination with 7 is a much more
         | likely explanation, especially since 6 is nowhere near as
         | important a number in this way (1,2,3 and 7 are much more
         | common in myths and fairytales).
        
           | throwaway8877 wrote:
           | Australian natives have stories than originate over 10000
           | years ago that have been proven to be factual.
        
           | explaininjs wrote:
           | Humans have made stories about the stars for as long as there
           | have been humans. Why do you think this is unreasonable?
        
             | xigency wrote:
             | It's not unreasonable per se but seems a weak hypothesis
             | without more supporting evidence.
        
       | vardump wrote:
       | Humanity might one day spread to all over the galaxy by
       | hitchhiking passing stars.
       | 
       | Well, assuming we don't self-annihilate ourselves at some point.
       | Or be destroyed by some cataclysm.
       | 
       | I guess we'd better spread to as many locations in the solar
       | system as, err, humanly possible.
        
         | perlgeek wrote:
         | Communication across interstellar space would be super slow,
         | because the speed of light is so slow compared to the
         | distances, like, at least several years for a single one-way
         | message.
         | 
         | This makes it likely that if we ever do settle multiple stars,
         | culture and language will diverge pretty strongly across the
         | different settlements, potentially making other, distant humans
         | our worst potential enemies.
        
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       (page generated 2023-12-25 23:01 UTC)