[HN Gopher] 2023: A year of groundbreaking advances in AI and co...
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2023: A year of groundbreaking advances in AI and computing
Author : jithinraj
Score : 15 points
Date : 2023-12-22 21:04 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (blog.research.google)
(TXT) w3m dump (blog.research.google)
| px43 wrote:
| And of course, 2024 is going to make 2023 look like 2022.
| worldsayshi wrote:
| Are there any key indications for this? Why would it not just
| stop here (for a while)?
| cryptoz wrote:
| The key indications are capitalism, pace of current
| development (what was it, yesterday that mj6 dropped?), and
| active research.
|
| In other words: 1) There's (a lot of) money to be made in
| making it better. 2) Releases are happening constantly, why
| would that stop? 3) Lots of recent research still that hasn't
| been productized and also that opens the door to future
| improvements.
| huijzer wrote:
| OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict
| (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see
| Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with
| earlier findings. Furthermore, there is no evidence at this
| point that there is an end in sight.
|
| [1]: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4
| randmeerkat wrote:
| > OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict
| (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1,
| see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with
| earlier findings.
|
| That's interesting if it's actually true. I think it's
| important to keep in mind that it's also their own
| marketing materials...
| bitshiftfaced wrote:
| We now have several organizations actively iterating on the
| same idea: OpenAI, Google, Apple, etc., most of which have
| more resources at their disposal than most countries do. They
| are also in fierce competition with each other. There's also
| a trend line if you look at the rate of progress over the
| last decade.
|
| Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may has plateaued. He ought
| to be privy to OpenAI's going-ons. That, and Gemini was
| underwhelming.
| falcor84 wrote:
| > That, and Gemini was underwhelming.
|
| Gemini Ultra wasn't yet fully released, so I'd like to
| correct your statement to: Gemini _will be_ underwhelming.
| falcor84 wrote:
| Can I extrapolate that 2025 is going to make 2023 look like
| 2021?
| light_hue_1 wrote:
| Google with some of the best people in the world. Unlimited
| resources in almost every way, manages to fall further behind and
| further into irrelevance in AI.
|
| A bunch of closed models no one can run. A mediocre bard that is
| way behind everyone else. Pretty pathetic. Is anyone home at
| Google?
|
| Google's AI budget is higher than the total funding for AI at all
| US universities combined. It's just mind boggling how they can
| drop the ball so badly.
|
| What a change in fortunes. Just a few years ago it was the place
| to be and our PhD students were dying to work there.
| fnordpiglet wrote:
| Well, Google has a bunch of people who tell themselves they're
| the best in the world. I've known perfectly reasonable humans
| start working there and by the time the left they felt they
| were smarter. By that I mean, in general, smarter than others.
| You can't be smarter, you can be smart, but smarter isn't a
| state of being. But they definitely feel they are, and assume
| you know that too. When discussing work I had done with one
| they insisted I must have based it off of a Google paper, which
| they weren't sure if there was one on it, but surely I didn't
| do it myself. That level.
|
| One when confronted with the actual remit of their new job at a
| new company said "wow you hired an atom bomb to open a tin
| can." They failed to achieve anything in two years and was
| fired.
| manmal wrote:
| Are you suggesting Google is a narcissist incubator? (only
| slightly tongue in cheek)
| solardev wrote:
| It's nice to see this. Hopefully small upstarts will make
| breakthroughs in different areas. Better than an AI monopoly.
|
| This last decade, Google hasn't really made much of relevance
| outside AI either. The company is just milking its existing ad
| flows and not much else, it seems.
| candiddevmike wrote:
| Google probably has at least 5x the management bloat as the
| competitors and it's killing them. Too many cooks in the
| kitchen vying to be the next AI thought leader. They're acting
| like IBM to be honest.
| l8_to_catch_up wrote:
| Gemini Pro, with arguably comparable quality to GPT4, competes
| with GPT4 with its superior pricing and speed.
|
| If you actually use Gemini Pro, you will find that it gives
| nearly instantaneous full responses, which makes me use it more
| than even GPT4 Turbo for a lot of quick questions. And
| certainly more than Bing AI with GPT4, which is so slow and
| awkward to use and which I gave up on.
|
| It's something that doesn't get discussed: speed and pricing,
| with near top quality. That's maybe how Google is planning to
| win for now.
| htrp wrote:
| This has been kind of a bad year for Google AI
|
| Feb - Bard Launched with LaMDA -- Immediately replaced by Palm 2
| backend within a month.
|
| May - Launched Palm2 with 4 different sizes, 2 of which were
| unusable (poor Gecko) and 1 of which was unavailable (unicorn
| being invite-only/ask your google rep), which replaced Palm-540.
| Will be replaced by Gemini Ultra apparently next year as "Bard
| Advanced"
|
| Launched Duet AI for both Workspace and Cloud, still compares
| unfavorably to GH Copilot.
|
| SGE basically caught up to ChatGPT web search with Bing
|
| June - Imagen released, results were ok, and immediately
| superseded by DallE3 within 3 months.
|
| November - Youtube releases AI Music generation, but only as part
| of their Music AI Incubator.
|
| Gemini launches with the infamous blue duck video.
|
| Gemini Ultra will likely be gatekept just like Palm2-Unicorn
| despite performance only matching GPT4/Turbo (and despite
| delaying their official launch by a quarter).
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