[HN Gopher] The SEC attaches a string to Bitcoin ETFs
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       The SEC attaches a string to Bitcoin ETFs
        
       Author : janandonly
       Score  : 14 points
       Date   : 2023-12-20 18:17 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (finance.yahoo.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (finance.yahoo.com)
        
       | MuffinFlavored wrote:
       | Slightly related:
       | 
       | what kind of "trustable/auditable" public analytics are there on
       | what contributes to the volume of Bitcoin trading from a "how
       | authentic is it" perspective?
       | 
       | Peeling back the onion:
       | 
       | I don't care if exchanges trade back and forth all day to
       | simulate fake demand (volume/exchanges between wallets that
       | aren't actually going to transactions for goods/services aka
       | crypto isn't really being used at $26b/day). That doesn't explain
       | to me the larger question:
       | 
       | Who/what (entities, individuals, at what scale) are purchasing
       | Bitcoin every day/week/month/quarter and holding on to it long
       | enough for it to be up to $44k (166% year to date)
       | 
       | How many individuals are contributing how many dollars and then
       | holding the asset without speculatively turning around and
       | selling it every single day? How much artificial vs non-
       | artificial demand is there? How big of a role is the artificial
       | demand? How is the artificial demand able to prop up (if it
       | exists) $864b (current BTC market cap) worth of demand/assets?
        
         | peyton wrote:
         | It's objectively one of the best-performing assets in human
         | history. Lots of funds are buying. What do you mean by
         | "artificial demand"?
        
           | I_Am_Nous wrote:
           | I believe they are referencing wash trading[1], where trades
           | are made of a certain security but the buyers and sellers are
           | the same person/group. This makes it appear like there is
           | more demand for the security in the market, enticing buyers
           | who look solely at trade volume. Forbes did some
           | investigation[2] and found that a a lot of the trades that
           | occur on exchanges are wash trades. So while it's clear that
           | bitcoin is a cultural phenomenon it's hard to say exactly how
           | much of the market is real and how much is a show to get more
           | people holding bags and willing to pick up more.
           | 
           | 1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/washtrading.asp
           | 
           | 2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierpaz/2022/08/26/more-
           | than-...
        
             | MuffinFlavored wrote:
             | > So while it's clear that bitcoin is a cultural phenomenon
             | it's hard to say exactly how much of the market is real and
             | how much is a show to get more people holding bags and
             | willing to pick up more.
             | 
             | And to the next layer: how effective it is at getting
             | "people" (how many people/how many dollars) to "hold bags"
             | (invest/purchase it/hold-on-for-dear-life)?
             | 
             | How much of Bitcoin's ~160% runup/return this year so far
             | can be attributed to regular Joe's investing their hard
             | earned money into it? How can you quantify what
             | portion/contribution of the probably... billion/trillion
             | shift of money (from USD/EUR/whatever into BTC) it's taking
             | to keep BTC at this $40k+ level?
             | 
             | How is there new demand every day?
        
           | MuffinFlavored wrote:
           | > It's objectively one of the best-performing assets in human
           | history.
           | 
           | I feel like this ignores the question "should it be"?
           | 
           | What purpose is it filling for society in its current state?
           | 
           | I find it highly unlikely that 100% of its daily volume
           | ($26b) is treating it as a currency (exchanging it for goods
           | + services).
           | 
           | I don't have the statistics but I'd go as far as to wager
           | less than 50% of its volume is using it as a currency/vehicle
           | for currency/vehicle for utility at all.
           | 
           | Which goes back to the original question: just because it's
           | one of the best performing assets of all time doesn't mean
           | that it should be if you introduce logic + reason + facts
           | around it, right? Who is using it for what currently and at
           | what scale? Are 99.99% of people using it as a vehicle for
           | speculative investment and nothing else? How many dollars are
           | being pumped into it every day (inflows)?
           | 
           | https://www.history.com/news/how-the-beanie-baby-craze-
           | came-...
        
             | codersfocus wrote:
             | > What purpose is it filling for society in its current
             | state?
             | 
             | It's the greatest convenience-security ratio store of
             | value.
             | 
             | Precious physical things are not convenient.
             | 
             | Fiat currency is not safe. (Don't bring up consumer use
             | cases. Bitcoin is a store of value, not a currency.)
        
               | MuffinFlavored wrote:
               | > It's the greatest convenience-security ratio store of
               | value.
               | 
               | How? As an average (not doing anonymous things at crypto
               | ATMs around the country, which might have cameras) US
               | customer who wants to use it, you need to give Coinbase
               | (exchange) a ton of banking + social security info, etc.
               | (typical know-your-customer KYC validation flow, I think
               | you even send then your driver's license)?
               | 
               | And you are supposed to file whatever you do crypto wise
               | on your taxes
        
         | TacticalCoder wrote:
         | > How much artificial vs non-artificial demand is there?
         | 
         | I sure have no idea but there's demand and then there's supply.
         | Supply of newly minted Bitcoins is going down by 50% in four
         | months.
         | 
         | I don't know who's buying all the coins but miners have costs
         | to cover and it's known they exert a lot of pressure by selling
         | part of their mined Bitcoins.
         | 
         | That was Satoshi's great middle finger (I don't care if it's
         | good or not: I see it as masterclass trolling): create
         | something which, unlike, say, the USD, cannot be printed at
         | will.
        
       | jgalt212 wrote:
       | So I cannot fence my stolen bitcoin by converting it into ETF
       | shares? The SEC is so unfair!
        
       | yieldcrv wrote:
       | I actually like the high bar thats set by no-coiners, it really
       | does improve the space
       | 
       | This practically guarantees the bitcoin market will become
       | extremely liquid for extremely large amounts
       | 
       | over on wallstreetjournal comments it is still common to see out
       | of touch people wonder if anyone's ever converted their crypto to
       | cash, not knowing how commonplace that is globally for the last
       | 10 years as they've only seen negative headlines their entire
       | life
       | 
       | its still common for people to have antiquated views about the
       | level of liquidity in the crypto space. "Good luck cashing out
       | those millions!" _cashes out hundreds of millions_
       | 
       | this standard would move that to billions very easily in a single
       | transaction near the best bid and ask, with dozens of bitcoin
       | ETFs always doing transactions to match retail order flows in the
       | stock market.
        
         | MuffinFlavored wrote:
         | > This practically guarantees the bitcoin market will become
         | extremely liquid for extremely large amounts
         | 
         | Isn't it actively walking towards block-halving and there being
         | a fixed number of coins in circulation (aka walking towards
         | eventual illiquidity)?
        
           | yieldcrv wrote:
           | by large amounts I was referring to large amounts of notional
           | US dollars worth of bitcoin
           | 
           | if bitcoin becomes more scarce with that large notional
           | demand, it will be fewer bitcoin traded at higher prices
           | 
           | regarding the block-halving issuance schedule, one of the
           | advances bitcoin heralded 15 years ago was being an
           | infinitely divisible asset. so if people want to hoard their
           | bitcoin then smaller and smaller units can trade in that
           | reality, to accommodate larger and larger notional values of
           | fiat to trade.
           | 
           | but this alone goes hand in hand with the purpose of the
           | block halving - thats just a subsidy to spur a parallel
           | economy, as the block reward is intended to be supplanted by
           | the transaction fees to redistribute bitcoin. this is already
           | working successfully, most bitcoin blocks this year have
           | transaction fees greater than the block reward. the same has
           | occurred on the Ethereum network for extended periods of time
           | too.
           | 
           | the SEC's arbitrary and encumbering standard increases the
           | number of transactions on the bitcoin network too.
           | strengthening the velocity of transactions and therefore its
           | transaction fee economy.
           | 
           | this has come to fruition in every macroeconomic environment
           | now. one can transparently see how bitcoin is hoarded, to me
           | its more interesting that it matches the same distribution of
           | most other asset classes. The M1 in currency is the tiny
           | percentage actively traded and used as cash with merchants, a
           | small percent of the float trades for equities, commodities.
           | no-coiners try to use the same standards to denigrate
           | bitcoin, but functionally bitcoin and crypto do meet their
           | prior bars and surpass them solely due to the pressure.
        
             | rspeele wrote:
             | > most bitcoin blocks this year have transaction fees
             | greater than the block reward
             | 
             | What?
             | 
             | [1]https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-
             | fee_to_reward.h...
        
         | TacticalCoder wrote:
         | > "Good luck cashing out those millions!" cashes out hundreds
         | of millions
         | 
         | I'm helping a non-tecchie with the technical details (she
         | bought Bitcoin years ago, stored them on a Ledger with the help
         | of someone, has no idea how to safely get them out / how to
         | update her Ledger / etc.) and there's some truth to what you
         | say but...
         | 
         | In the EU at least it can be _very_ difficult to cash out any
         | _sizeable_ amount. 10 K? Sure, fine. 10 millions and more? You
         | go to a private bank and they 'll be very interested in helping
         | you out. But you have anywhere from a few hundred Ks to 2 or 3
         | millions: that's too small of a fry for a private bank and
         | _way_ too scary for people doing KYC /AML at regular consumer
         | banks.
         | 
         | I'm literally talking about banks _kicking people out_ as soon
         | as they mention they have 1 million+ in crypto.
         | 
         | Put it this way: it's _easier_ to cash out hundreds of millions
         | than it is to cash out one million.
         | 
         | It's all people working in banks/finance/funds around me and
         | that subject comes out often. There are people who manage to
         | cash out but there also people having lots of issues. Cashing
         | out a sizeable amount is _doable_ but it can definitely be very
         | complicated. At least in the EU.
         | 
         | P.S: btw I'm talking about ordinary people who did absolutely
         | nothing wrong: they just made an ultra speculative (but legal)
         | investment in Bitcoin and/or shitcoins which, on paper, paid
         | off.
        
           | yieldcrv wrote:
           | I know OTC desks that can handle that for competitive spreads
           | 
           | but Coinbase also services the Eurozone and UK. they also
           | have an OTC desk.
           | 
           | all been easy for over half a decade. you dont mention that
           | word to banks.
        
           | jbverschoor wrote:
           | Well, here in the Netherlands, banks someone flag grocery
           | transactions as suspicious with the result that average joe
           | will have to provide evidence and all kind of crap to prevent
           | his bank account from being closed. "CDD"
           | 
           | If that happens, you're cut off. No more insurance, banking,
           | mortgage, nothing.
        
       | mypastself wrote:
       | I still don't get it. A fund of what? As the article rightly
       | states, a normal ETF consists of a basket of different companies'
       | shares. I'd understand if this was marketed as a fund containing
       | various cryptocurrencies, but this is... just Bitcoin? Different
       | Bitcoin forks?
        
         | sfjailbird wrote:
         | No different than a gold ETF.
        
       | jrflowers wrote:
       | This is troubling. Considering the history of crypto currency it
       | is a mystery to me why would anyone take an issue with an ETF
       | operating in a way that's identical to a normal Bitcoin exchange
       | website
        
       | jbverschoor wrote:
       | So the ETF will be more expensive. That's always the case, as
       | there's also a management fee. It will still open up the market
       | for many retail and institutional. It will also be good for
       | custodians and exchanges, such as coinbase.
       | 
       | And for the price sensitive among them, it will cause more demand
       | on actual crypto.
        
       | boppo1 wrote:
       | Are there any finance guys here that know the prospectus form
       | number that lays out all the nitty gritty details of how the ETF
       | holds bitcoin? Like the ETF version of an S-1?
        
         | hbcondo714 wrote:
         | They still need to file an S-1 like iShares Bitcoin Trust did:
         | 
         | https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&C...
        
         | tomputer wrote:
         | Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC (the "Bitcoin Custodian")
         | is the custodian for the Trust's bitcoin holdings.
         | 
         | Source:
         | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980994/000143774923...
        
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       (page generated 2023-12-20 23:02 UTC)