[HN Gopher] The origin of the law of torture: A cautionary tale
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The origin of the law of torture: A cautionary tale
        
       Author : notgloating
       Score  : 115 points
       Date   : 2023-12-17 06:40 UTC (16 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (daviddfriedman.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (daviddfriedman.substack.com)
        
       | refurb wrote:
       | _The modern version, a plea bargain, is motivated by the threat
       | of a much more severe sentence if the defendant insists on a
       | trial and is convicted._
       | 
       | This is looking at it backwards. It's not a threat of a "more
       | severe sentence", it's a threat of a default sentence (the same
       | sentence the accused would get if plea bargaining didn't exist at
       | all). The plea bargain is an offer of a lesser sentence.
       | 
       | That distinction makes a difference.
       | 
       | The way the author looks at it is like how the government look at
       | spending cuts. "Last year my budget went up 20% and this year
       | it's only 10%, so you're _cutting my spending by 10%_ next year??
       | ".
        
         | LightHugger wrote:
         | It makes a difference in that one way is a useful psychological
         | manipulation and one is not.
         | 
         | There is no difference in the way you seem to suggest.
        
           | refurb wrote:
           | How is offering a lesser punishment "manipulation"? As a
           | defendant, it's simply a choice - "Do I think I can beat this
           | case?".
           | 
           | If you don't think you can, then you take the lesser
           | punishment.
           | 
           | If you think you can beat it, you decline it because the
           | better choice is "no punishment at all".
        
             | emmelaich wrote:
             | Because it encourages the threat of a far greater
             | punishment.
        
             | KingMob wrote:
             | > How is offering a lesser punishment "manipulation"?
             | 
             | It's part of a larger manipulative pattern.
             | 
             | Since you can increase the penalties for jury convictions
             | to absurd levels, like the USA has done, even a "lesser"
             | plea bargain punishment can still be more punitive than
             | most nations' jury conviction punishments.
             | 
             | Plus, as the length of a jury conviction punishment
             | increases, the threshold at which one's willing to risk a
             | jury trial has to go up, thus pressuring people into taking
             | plea bargains they might not under another country's
             | judicial system.
        
               | refurb wrote:
               | > Since you can increase the penalties for jury
               | convictions to absurd levels
               | 
               | What? Juries follow the law and the prescribed
               | punishments. Maybe you're thinking of civil penalties?
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | Juries do not decide punishments. They are often times
               | NOT allowed to even know what punishments are (the
               | thinking is that they would be more likely to acquit when
               | those punishments would feel too hard for them).
        
             | southerntofu wrote:
             | It's not just "can i beat this case"? It's also, "how much
             | will it cost me?" and "how long will i stay imprisoned for
             | before i'm found not guilty?".
             | 
             | Of course, there's the chance you're found guilty although
             | noone would dare say you committed the crime (Leonard
             | Peltier), or the chance that you'll submit to much harsher
             | punishment than what was decided by the judge (Georges
             | Ibrahim Abdallah). But even when you're white and you're
             | not facing a political repression case, there's a good
             | chance pleading guilty for a fine and a suspended sentence
             | looks better than spending a whole year in jail awaiting
             | the trial that will exonerate you.
             | 
             | There's plenty of research in that area, feel free to look
             | it up.
             | 
             | https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1158356619/plea-bargains-
             | crim...
        
             | dcminter wrote:
             | Would you prefer a 10% chance of a death penalty or a 100%
             | chance of a 1 year prison sentence? Exaggerated, but it
             | makes the point clear.
        
         | ajb wrote:
         | Given that 97% of convictions are based on plea bargains, why
         | would you imagine that sentencing is calibrated based on the 3%
         | jury trials? There are obvious political incentives for this
         | not to be the case, given how much voters are annoyed by
         | convicts getting off lightly.
         | 
         | Also, the main point is that confessions based on threats are
         | much poorer evidence of guilt than a proper trial.
        
           | refurb wrote:
           | > Given that 97% of convictions are based on plea bargains,
           | why would you imagine that sentencing is calibrated based on
           | the 3% jury trials?
           | 
           | Because that's not how you measure options.
           | 
           | If I'm collecting a debt of $1,000 from you, and I come to
           | you and say "hey, if you pay it this week, I'll settle for
           | only $700", would you say "This person is stealing $300 from
           | me!"?
           | 
           | Of course not. You always owed $1,000. This is an offer to
           | pay _less_.
           | 
           | Just like those charged with a crime always faced a specific
           | punishment. If you offer a _lesser punishment_ , it's not a
           | threat of a harsher punishment because _you always faced it_
           | , even if plea bargains never existed.
        
             | thaumasiotes wrote:
             | This isn't related to your earlier comment.
             | 
             | You originally claimed this:
             | 
             | > It's not a threat of a "more severe sentence", it's a
             | threat of a default sentence _(the same sentence the
             | accused would get if plea bargaining didn 't exist at
             | all)_. The plea bargain is an offer of a lesser sentence.
             | 
             | The plea bargain is an offer of a "lesser" sentence, where
             | "lesser" refers to a comparison to the trial sentence.
             | 
             | It is not a comparison to the trial sentence from a
             | counterfactual world in which plea bargains don't exist.
             | 
             | As ajb points out, given that all US sentences derive from
             | plea bargains, the sentence associated with a plea bargain
             | already is the sentence that is felt to be appropriate for
             | the crime. In the counterfactual word, you'd expect the
             | counterfactual trial sentence to be about equal to the
             | real-world plea bargain sentence.
        
               | refurb wrote:
               | > the sentence associated with a plea bargain already is
               | the sentence that is felt to be appropriate for the crime
               | 
               | That's not true. Plea bargains can be incredibly minor
               | punishments versus the crime. Plea bargains are the flip
               | side of the prosecutions options. If the prosecutor
               | thinks it's a slam dunk, they have little incentive to
               | offer a plea bargain at all - if they do, it may be a
               | very severe sentence. If the prosecution thinks their
               | odds of a win are low, they may offer a very lenient
               | sentence, even for very serious crimes.
               | 
               | But who goes to trial comparing their outcome to other
               | trials? A individual is looking at a specific situation -
               | their own trial. They have no idea about the
               | circumstances of other trials - whether defendants were
               | truly innocent, or how much evidence the prosecution had.
               | You may be charged with murder, and another defendant got
               | a plea bargain of only 1 year in prison for manslaughter.
               | But the prosecution has a rock solid case so your plea
               | bargain is life in prison.
               | 
               | It's a singular decision of the defendant, usually with
               | input from their lawyer. They'll need to determine their
               | own likelihood of being found "not guilty" and decide if
               | the risk is worth it versus the reduced sentence being
               | offered.
        
               | thaumasiotes wrote:
               | > If the prosecutor thinks it's a slam dunk, they have
               | little incentive to offer a plea bargain at all - if they
               | do, it may be a very severe sentence.
               | 
               | You have no idea how prosecutors act. Slam dunk cases are
               | pled. Most cases are slam dunks.
               | 
               | With plea bargains determining the sentence in 97% of
               | cases, it isn't possible for those sentences to be felt
               | to be lighter than appropriate. That would cause a
               | political crisis.
        
               | mrkeen wrote:
               | > If the prosecutor thinks it's a slam dunk, they have
               | little incentive to offer a plea bargain at all
               | 
               | > 97% of convictions are based on plea bargains
               | 
               | Taken together, these mean prosecutors generally don't
               | have good enough evidence to put people away, which is
               | the thrust of the article: it's easier to threaten
               | someone into a confession than to have a proper trial.
        
               | thaumasiotes wrote:
               | > Taken together, these mean prosecutors generally don't
               | have good enough evidence to put people away
               | 
               | Note that while you're correct about what those
               | statements would mean in combination, refurb's statement
               | is false. There is very little point in examining what
               | _would_ follow from the invented claims of someone with
               | no idea what he 's talking about.
        
               | refurb wrote:
               | > Taken together, these mean prosecutors generally don't
               | have good enough evidence to put people away, which is
               | the thrust of the article: it's easier to threaten
               | someone into a confession than to have a proper trial.
               | 
               | Generally? No. Sometimes? Sure.
               | 
               | And yes, you could view it as a threat. That's the nature
               | of a adversarial justic system. The same way that police
               | will tell you they'll arrest you for standing on a
               | sidewalk. It's often an empty threat.
               | 
               | It's why we provide legal services to defendants. So you
               | can have a trained lawyer look at the evidence and tell
               | you what you chances are of a not guilty verdict. Then
               | the defendant can decide if a chance at not guilty is
               | worth turning down a plea bargain.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | > The same way that police will tell you they'll arrest
               | you for standing on a sidewalk.
               | 
               | That is police abuse tho. In a sane controlled police
               | system, no they can not threaten you with arrest for
               | standing on a sidewalk.
               | 
               | > It's why we provide legal services to defendants
               | 
               | Public defenders are notoriously overburdened and have
               | massively limited resources. They are less likely to get
               | you bail and you are much easier to be coerced when you
               | wait in jail for months.
        
               | daedrdev wrote:
               | Or it means they don't have enough resources to run a
               | trial for every case they believe they will win. , and so
               | give out plea bargins to reduce the number of trials
        
             | rambambram wrote:
             | And now you are going from criminal law to civil disputes.
             | Hardly comparable.
        
           | impossiblefork wrote:
           | Here in Sweden a confession is evidence, but is not on its
           | own enough to secure a conviction.
           | 
           | I think this is the right way to do treat it-- after all,
           | people lie about all sorts of things.
        
         | throwaway290 wrote:
         | > It's not a threat of a "more severe sentence", it's a threat
         | of a default sentence
         | 
         | The "default" is updated when you learn about plea bargain...
         | You are now comparing options relative to plea sentence. If the
         | best option "walk free" is uncertain even if you're not guilty
         | (what if the other guy has a better lawyer or something) then
         | plea sentence is the best certain option.
        
         | eviks wrote:
         | The default sentence depends on the charges, charges depend on
         | the persecutor, which are motivated to increase those to get
         | the easier deal of a plea bargain, so it is exactly the much
         | higher cost of a trial and a higher risk of a more severe
         | sentence that is the selling point for the accused if you don't
         | look at it backwards
        
           | refurb wrote:
           | But the prosecutor _doesn 't decide the sentence_. The judge
           | or jury do.
           | 
           | And prosecutors need to be careful. If they go for a more
           | serious charge, but can't prove it, the defendant may be
           | found not guilty when they would have been found guilty of a
           | lesser charge (this happened to me on a jury - we found them
           | not guilty of 1st degree murder, but likely would have found
           | them guilty of manslaughter, but that wasn't an option).
        
             | eviks wrote:
             | Not really, there are mandatory minimums and various
             | sentencing guidelines, so the judge is not doing completely
             | random stuff independent of the charges the prosecutor
             | brings.
             | 
             | And you example is a bit backwards: the trial happened
             | after the plea bargain failed, so this has little effect on
             | the threat to bring more (or more serious) charges, but
             | even if it does: the "careful" sub-range is still measured
             | in multiples/years, so a huge risk
        
         | southerntofu wrote:
         | I feel like you are looking at it backwards. When the
         | prosecutor proposes a plea bargain, it's usually because they
         | don't have enough proof to get a proper conviction through a
         | juge/jury, or at least it is so here in France.
         | 
         | A plea bargain is used to convict innocent people, by giving
         | them a choice between a plea punishment, and the punishment of
         | having to go through pre-trial detention and various forms of
         | abuses before being able to prove their innocence. That the
         | entire police-justice system works by treating you as guilty
         | until proven innocent is crazy and is in itself a very strong
         | sentence. That is, unless you are rich of course in which case
         | pre-trial detention is likely non-existent and you can commit
         | most crimes and get away with it.
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | Majority of cases are settled by plea bargain 96% or
           | something like that. It is used whether there is evidence or
           | not, because it is fast and cheap.
        
         | rambambram wrote:
         | There is - at least on paper - a big distinction between a
         | prosecutor and a judge. It's called 'trias politica'. Maybe you
         | should look it up.
        
       | isnifailed wrote:
       | And then there was Guantanamo, which proves all this stuff in the
       | article is far from being universally accepted.
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | This is somewhat true but it's a reminder of how far out it
         | was: the Bush administration had to invent a new theory of
         | executive privilege to authorize it, did it outside of the
         | country because they knew it wouldn't be accept by a real
         | court, and then they still felt the need to "accidentally"
         | delete the tapes.
        
           | verisimi wrote:
           | Yes. What nonsense the whole of the legal system is. And
           | people think it is about justice. If justice occurs on
           | account of the legal system, its a happy accident, not by
           | design!
        
             | wolverine876 wrote:
             | This attitude prevents real progress, and results in
             | additional injustice. The legal system is imperfect, and
             | very flawed in some respects. The way forward is to
             | understand the mechanism, and improve it, relentlessly. In
             | the end it's a human institution and will be flawed, but
             | that's all we have - humans all the way down.
             | 
             | The people on the sideline saying it's all pointless are
             | not only obstructing those doing actual work, they benefit
             | from the legal system - the work of all these people and
             | generations working toward justice - without contributing
             | their share.
        
               | verisimi wrote:
               | You say its pointless standing on the sideline
               | obstructing, whereas I think trying to save a system that
               | cannot deliver justice by design is a waste of effort.
               | 
               | Let me know when your relentless effort yields
               | improvement.
        
       | infotainment wrote:
       | This seems like a really shallow take masquerading as a deep one.
       | 
       | The core assertion that offering a lesser punishment in exchange
       | for cooperation is a form of "torture" strikes me as an extreme
       | exaggeration.
        
         | mrkeen wrote:
         | The writer didn't say that.
         | 
         | > The American legal system found a less expensive alternative.
         | Like its medieval predecessor, it substituted confession for
         | trial. The medieval confession was motivated by the threat of
         | torture. The modern version, a plea bargain, is motivated by
         | the threat of a much more severe sentence if the defendant
         | insists on a trial and is convicted.
        
         | southerntofu wrote:
         | Have you ever faced custody and pre-trial detention? It's hard
         | to imagine until you've gone through this. But yes, offering a
         | definitely innocent person that was abused by the System the
         | choice between two forms of punishment is some form of
         | "torture".
         | 
         | Being manipulated by the cops into a fake testimony is torture.
         | Having the cops fake evidence and their testimonies to harass
         | you is torture. Remaining days in a room with lights on all
         | day, shit all over the walls in a freezing cold or hammering
         | hot, without access to a shower or better clothes, that's
         | torture.
         | 
         | And that's when you're lucky. The less lucky ones have months
         | or years of pre-trial detention, sometimes in isolation (which
         | is a well-studied form of torture) before they can even defend
         | themselves.
        
           | lelanthran wrote:
           | > Have you ever faced custody and pre-trial detention?
           | 
           | Yes.
           | 
           | > ut yes, offering a definitely innocent person that was
           | abused by the System the choice between two forms of
           | punishment is some form of "torture".
           | 
           | If you classify everything you don't like as " some form of
           | torture", then sure you have a point.
           | 
           | But we don't do that. We don't _know for sure_ that someone
           | is innocent. All we can do is go through the process that we
           | have.
           | 
           | It's beyond hyperbole to suggest that any and all you lements
           | of the justice system is a form of torture.
        
             | andrepd wrote:
             | >But we don't do that. We don't know for sure that someone
             | is innocent.
             | 
             | A basic principle of any civilised society is "innocent
             | until proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt". I will not
             | waste time explaining why this is important.
        
               | lelanthran wrote:
               | I am not presupposing guilt, I am seriously wondering how
               | you would have a working justice system that never
               | arrests suspects.
               | 
               | Complaining that all elements of a justice system is a
               | form of torture is like unironically using the term
               | "stare rape": you're trivialising the real term in
               | pursuit of winning points in an argument.
        
             | Geisterde wrote:
             | Define torture if you are so inclined. Regardless, the plea
             | bargain system has been repeatedly abused to compel false
             | testimoney from people otherwise helpless to defend
             | themselves from a lengthy and costly legal proceeding that
             | will leave them ruined. Its a violation of their human
             | rights, its prohibited by the constitution, and empirically
             | has ruined millions of people. Crimes that do not involve
             | violence against another person or person or their property
             | (which are logically synonymous) should not be crimes, that
             | would lower the judicial load.
        
               | lelanthran wrote:
               | I agree with everything you said, and still disagree that
               | Golding suspects until an appearance in court is the same
               | as waterboarding them or pulling their fingernails.
               | 
               | Just because I pointed out that such a practice is not,
               | in fact, any form of torture does not mean that the
               | practice is not unduly burdensome and unfair.
        
               | Geisterde wrote:
               | I appreciate that view, but thats not a qualitative
               | analysis of torture. Im not sure that it could be
               | appropriately defined in a way that distinguishes torture
               | from other types of violence, so maybe the word is really
               | only useful in creating an emotional effect.
        
           | tgv wrote:
           | Pre-trail detention isn't torture. If it were, it would be
           | forbidden in many jurisdictions. Hard isolation is different;
           | at the very least, it is a step in the direction of torture.
        
       | quickthrower2 wrote:
       | He didn't mention that the plea deal doesn't care if you are
       | innocent and even if you are innocence and are found innocent you
       | might do 3 years in jail awaiting trial (bail is for wealthy
       | people)
        
         | draugadrotten wrote:
         | There are even people waiting 10+ years for a trial.
         | https://reason.com/2023/07/26/he-spent-10-years-behind-bars-...
         | 
         | This is clearly the best justice. Believe me. We have triumphed
         | over evil like nobody has seen before. I believe it's a rough
         | situation over there. There's no question about it. The past
         | does not have to define the future. It's idealistic, it's
         | wonderful, it's a beautiful thing.
        
           | hulitu wrote:
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_cam.
           | ..
        
         | 2Gkashmiri wrote:
         | For us mere peasants, there is a term "preventive detention"
         | such they say is NOT an arrest so you do not have rich things
         | like habeas corpus or bail.
         | 
         | Plus, this is usually pre-crime detention so there is no crime,
         | no case, no enquiry, no courts.
         | 
         | Its fun
         | 
         | https://www.legalservicesindia.com/law/article/5001/5/Preven...
         | 
         | Another nice thing
         | 
         | t was held that the law of preventive detention is not
         | unconstitutional since it has no objective criterion for
         | ordering preventive detention, and instead relies on the
         | executive's subjective judgment. This viewpoint is based on the
         | fact that preventive detention is not punitive, but rather
         | preventative, and is used to prevent a person from engaging in
         | actions that are seen to be harmful to specific goals that the
         | law of preventive detention aims to regulate. As a result,
         | preventive detention is based on suspicion or expectation
         | rather than proof.
         | 
         | https://blog.ipleaders.in/extending-protections-accused-ligh...
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | For American commentators, this is a Commonwealth holdover
           | from British Colonial jurisprudence (Australia, NZ, India,
           | Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa).
           | 
           | Should be done away with, but it most likely won't be as long
           | as Indian Law and Order concentrates more on "Order" and less
           | on "Law".
           | 
           | Also the chronic lack of Judges in India is a major issue
           | impacting bail.
        
       | k__ wrote:
       | _" In the history of Western culture no legal system has ever
       | made a more valiant effort to perfect its safeguards and thereby
       | to exclude completely the possibility of mistaken conviction"_
       | 
       | Reminds me of a law that was repealed recently in Germany.
       | 
       | They wanted to "reopen" cases where people were already found not
       | guilty, when new technology would find new evidence.
       | 
       | In one case, a murderer was found not guilty, and later they had
       | DNA analysis that would have proven his guilt. The new law would
       | have put him behind bars.
       | 
       | However, the federal constitutional court repealed the law, as
       | the constitution forbids to convict someone two times for the
       | same crime. They said legal certainty was more important than
       | finding the truth.
        
         | Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote:
         | Although my first reaction is to support the idea of being able
         | to retry cases when new evidence emerges, I can see the
         | pitfalls if this were applied in a real-world justice system.
         | There would have to be some pretty big barriers to overcome to
         | prevent abuse (on the usual suspects, the poor and/or people
         | the police/politicians just don't like) and then more rules to
         | make sure those barriers themselves aren't used as loopholes by
         | the truly guilty. I think it could be done, but its just as
         | likely they do it in such a way to maximize state power without
         | checks or balances.
        
           | k__ wrote:
           | I totally understand where they coming from.
           | 
           | Nevertheless, this loophole gives guilty people plausible
           | deniability, since the system can never be sure to find the
           | truth.
        
           | tgv wrote:
           | Isn't it common to be able to re-open court cases? That
           | (technically, legally) sidesteps ne bis in idem (aka double
           | jeopardy), but it requires that substantial new evidence is
           | brought. So basically it adds that barrier, and the barrier
           | becomes higher for every new attempt.
        
             | SamBam wrote:
             | No, it's not common to reopen court cases if the jury finds
             | a person innocent. You can certainly reopen court cases
             | where someone was found guilty, but that's not double
             | jeopardy.
        
               | bagels wrote:
               | Juries make guilty/not guilty findings, not innocence.
        
               | PebblesRox wrote:
               | What's the technical distinction between "not guilty" and
               | "innocent?"
        
               | jurgenaut23 wrote:
               | You're a statistician, aren't you?
        
         | retrac wrote:
         | That is called "double jeopardy". It is explicitly prohibited
         | in most legal systems. Even where it isn't explicitly
         | prohibited, it's generally assumed as a basic principle (like
         | innocent until proven guilty).
         | 
         | It's basic: if someone can be retried because of new evidence,
         | the prosecution will introduce a little bit more evidence
         | (probably evidence they intentionally held back!) after each
         | acquittal, and try them again.
         | 
         | The Americans in particular take it much further than some do;
         | here in Canada the prosecution can appeal from an acquittal due
         | to legal error in the decision; the prohibition on double
         | jeopardy only applies to the entire process as a whole, after a
         | final verdict including appeals. In the USA, a verdict issued
         | by a jury, even at the first trial, is generally final and
         | cannot be appealed even for reasons of legal error, while a
         | guilty verdict can be appealed. American pluricentric power
         | does create an odd circumstance where you can be tried twice in
         | practice, though. If the federal government prosecutes someone
         | for a crime, and fails to convict, if it was illegal under
         | state law, the state government can try again under state law,
         | or vice versa.
        
           | graphe wrote:
           | Innocent until proven guilty isn't generally assumed. Look at
           | India.
        
             | mrangle wrote:
             | Or even at France, if memory serves.
        
               | smnrchrds wrote:
               | Is this what you are referring to?
               | 
               | https://www.france24.com/en/20170830-france-reacts-
               | dutertes-...
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | There is that "factual innocence is not a reason to let the
           | convict goes, because somehow magically knowing an innocent
           | person is in prison makes justice system more trustworthy"
           | supreme court gem.
           | 
           | There should be obvious difference between "minor new
           | development" and "major new finding". Likewise, there should
           | be obvious difference between "potentially innocent person is
           | in prison" and "prosecutor wants new attempt situations.
        
             | SamBam wrote:
             | I'm not sure precisely what supreme court gem you're
             | referring to, but just to be clear, double jeopardy only
             | applies when a jury finds a person innocent. People who are
             | found guilty _can_ potentially have a new trial if new
             | evidence comes to light.
        
               | gumby wrote:
               | In 2020 or January 2021 the federal Supreme Court
               | affirmed the execution of a convict when it was
               | demonstrated that their court appointed attorney had
               | ignored exculpatory evidence that the accused had been
               | elsewhere at the time of the crime. The process was
               | considered more important than the result.
               | 
               | There was a lot in the headlines at the time and though
               | this made the news other things quickly drove it "off the
               | front page" (don't know what metaphor we should use for
               | that expression these days).
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | > _There is that "factual innocence is not a reason to let
             | the convict goes, because somehow magically knowing an
             | innocent person is in prison makes justice system more
             | trustworthy" supreme court gem._
             | 
             | Is that for real? It sounds positively Cardassian.
             | 
             | Dukat: "On Cardassia, the verdict is always known before
             | the trial begins. And it's always the same."
             | 
             | Sisko: "In that case, why bother with a trial at all?"
             | 
             | Dukat: "Because the people demand it. They enjoy watching
             | justice triumph over evil every time. They find it
             | comforting."
        
             | hn_acker wrote:
             | The case you're referring to is Herrera v. Collins, 506
             | U.S. 390 (1993). The relevant excerpt is in Justice Antonin
             | Scalia's concurrence [1]:
             | 
             | > There is no basis in text, tradition, or even in
             | contemporary practice (if that were enough), for finding in
             | the Constitution a right to demand judicial consideration
             | of newly discovered evidence of innocence brought forward
             | after conviction.
             | 
             | ...
             | 
             | > With any luck, we shall avoid ever having to face this
             | embarrassing question again, since it is improbable that
             | evidence of innocence as convincing as today's opinion
             | requires would fail to produce an executive pardon.
             | 
             | Note: In the excerpt above from source [1], Snopes removed
             | a page break and inserted a comma (mistake?). Keep that in
             | mind when using ctrl-F in source [2].
             | 
             | The Supreme Court's ruling (6-3) was that someone who was
             | already convicted for a crime but later makes a claim of
             | new evidence of innocence is not entitled for a new
             | judicial trial [2]. In simple terms, there's no guarantee
             | to a new trial after the fact, and the burden on the courts
             | would be too much anyway. Scalia's concurrence went further
             | and asserted that executing someone who was convicted in a
             | procedurally proper trial but was actually innocent is not
             | "cruel and unusual punishment" (by the standards of the
             | past 200+ years of US history, which supposedly involved
             | plenty of executions of innocent people convicted in proper
             | trials) and is not a violation of due process.
             | 
             | The majority (including Scalia) weren't in favor of
             | executing an innocent person, they were just arguing that
             | the convict making the new claim of innocence can't count
             | on the _judicial system_. The majority, including Scalia,
             | points to the only option being seeking _executive_
             | clemency /pardon, i.e. request the governor/president to
             | evaluate the new evidence of supposed innocence and hope
             | that the governor/president agrees - or at least reduces
             | the sentence [2]. A request for clemency is outside of the
             | scope of due process.
             | 
             | > Herrera is not left without a forum to raise his actual
             | innocence claim. He may file a request for clemency under
             | Texas law, which contains specific guidelines for pardons
             | on the ground of innocence. History shows that executive
             | clemency is the traditional "fail safe" remedy
             | 
             | [page break]
             | 
             | > for claims of innocence based on new evidence, discovered
             | too late in the day to file a new trial motion.
             | 
             | From the convict's perspective, "no new trial, but you can
             | ask for a pardon" is cold comfort, but not necessarily a
             | dead end.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/scalia-death-penalty-
             | quote...
             | 
             | [2] https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/506/390/ ht
             | tps://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/506/390/case.pdf
        
               | kmeisthax wrote:
               | It's hard not to read SCOTUS's argument as selfish. The
               | zeroeth amendment of every legal system is "the people
               | shall not waste the judge's time", and apparently it
               | comes even before "we let 10 guilty men go free to save 1
               | innocent man".
        
               | smnrchrds wrote:
               | > _Four months after the Court 's ruling, Herrera was
               | executed. His last words were: "I am innocent, innocent,
               | innocent. . . . I am an innocent man, and something very
               | wrong is taking place tonight."_
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herrera_v._Collins#Subseque
               | nt_...
        
               | epicureanideal wrote:
               | Seems like if they believed he was innocent they
               | should've contacted the executive themselves to request a
               | pardon.
        
               | User23 wrote:
               | Clemency is a wonderful tradition, but I get the
               | impression that those who hold that power tend to view it
               | as purely prerogative with no moral obligation. Which is
               | too bad, because it certainly is meant to be justice's
               | last resort.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | The USA still has a form of double jeopardy. Under our dual
           | sovereignty system, federal and state authorities can both
           | prosecute a defendant for the same underlying crime.
           | 
           | https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/17/politics/supreme-court-
           | double...
        
         | teknico wrote:
         | No such safeguard in Italy: people are regularly tried from
         | three to up to five times.
         | 
         | It's not rare for someone to be found guilty after having been
         | found not guilty once, and sometimes even twice.
         | 
         | https://www.nicolaporro.it/uccise-il-padre-per-difendere-la-...
        
         | aquafox wrote:
         | > the constitution forbids to convict someone two times for the
         | same crime He wasn't convicted, which means the reason he isn't
         | convicted for the first time now is because he is not allowed
         | to be convicted twice. That doesn't make sense to me.
        
       | james-bcn wrote:
       | >In 1215 the fourth Lateran council rejected the religious
       | legitimacy of judicial ordeals and banned priests from
       | participating in them. Over the next few decades most European
       | countries abandoned their use.
       | 
       | I'm not sure if this is true. There was definitely trial by
       | ordeal in the 16th and 17th century.
        
         | jessriedel wrote:
         | Wikipedia suggests that although they still sometime occurred,
         | they had become quite rare in Europe, which seems consistent
         | with the blog post. The fact that they were forbidden by the
         | Catholic church certainly supports this.
         | 
         | > Priestly cooperation in trials by fire and water was
         | forbidden by Pope Innocent III at the Fourth Lateran Council of
         | 1215 and replaced by compurgation. Trials by ordeal became
         | rarer over the Late Middle Ages, but the practice was not
         | discontinued until the 16th century. Certain trials by ordeal
         | would continue to be used into the 17th century in witch-hunts.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_by_ordeal
        
       | Geisterde wrote:
       | All of this wonderful game theory people are discussing in these
       | comments; "while this particular instance they may have found the
       | real criminal, the precedence it would set will likely be
       | abused", this is indeed the most sober analysis of something like
       | repealing protections against double jeopardy. Dare I say, people
       | should engage that part of their brain with everything, the
       | problems with mass surveillance tends to be something this board
       | is also good at identifying.
       | 
       | What about the monetary system, surely we could all take a step
       | back and anaylze the mechanics of a system that plays a 50% role
       | in all economic transactions, no ideology, no bias, just the game
       | theory of a system where money only exists when its loaned into
       | existence by a central bank.
       | 
       | What about gun ownership (oh thats the nerve), its easy to assume
       | things will be better when guns are banned, but what is the
       | actual game theory in the balance of power between a people and
       | their government when the people are stripped of their ability to
       | defend themselves from an oppressive government?
        
         | coldtea wrote:
         | > _what is the actual game theory in the balance of power
         | between a people and their government when the people are
         | stripped of their ability to defend themselves from an
         | oppressive government?_
         | 
         | What is the actual reality that says now there's a "balance of
         | power" between the people and their government in the US?
         | 
         | How did people or groups challenging it with their guns (or
         | even peacefully) because they thought of it as an "oppressive
         | government" fared?
        
           | Geisterde wrote:
           | Reasonably well, all things considered. There are something
           | like 20+ million ar-15s in america, were american gun owners
           | considered an army it would be the largest ever conceived of
           | with no close second; perhaps here you will find the reason
           | you enjoy more liberties than someone living in china or
           | north korea.
           | 
           | And I never said it was fair, I said it was a balance; the
           | balance is very clearly biased towards the government, but
           | they do not enjoy such power for complete and violent
           | subjugation. They rely instead on propaganda, I would argue
           | that is the foundation of their power in fact; the creation
           | myth of our government, that the public interest is
           | represented, keep a critical mass unwittingly subsurvient.
        
             | sandworm101 wrote:
             | >> were american gun owners considered an army
             | 
             | Guns do not make an army. Should 20 million AR-carrying
             | Americans rise up, the "government" would be the least
             | scared. The day after they stormed all the state houses,
             | they would fractionize and turn against one another.
        
               | Geisterde wrote:
               | How do you get from 'an armed populace protects against
               | government overreach' to 'an armed uprising'? You realize
               | thats projection right?
        
             | PhasmaFelis wrote:
             | > perhaps here you will find the reason you enjoy more
             | liberties than someone living in china or north korea.
             | 
             | False dichotomy. There are plenty of nations that have
             | strict gun control laws _and_ plenty of liberty.
        
             | PhasmaFelis wrote:
             | > perhaps here you will find the reason you enjoy more
             | liberties than someone living in china or north korea.
             | 
             | False dichotomy. There are many nations that have strict
             | gun control laws _and_ plenty of liberty.
        
               | Geisterde wrote:
               | Right, like Australia, where they put their own citizens
               | into internment camps.
        
               | coldtea wrote:
               | You mean like the US did Native Americans in early 20th
               | century, or the Japanese-Americans in WWII? Or
               | seggregation between blacks and whites?
               | 
               | Or like the fact that the US has the largest prison
               | population (percentage wise) than any western country, by
               | a huge factor? And where over a million people are
               | convicted of felony per year?
        
               | Geisterde wrote:
               | Yes.
               | 
               | There is nothing logically inconsistent with saying
               | disarming the native population was a tactic used to
               | further subjugate them, as an example. Racially motivated
               | violence has almost unilaterally been the causal result
               | of insufficiently armed minorities. Im all for letting
               | non violent offenders out of prison.
        
             | coldtea wrote:
             | > _Reasonably well, all things considered. There are
             | something like 20+ million ar-15s in america, were american
             | gun owners considered an army it would be the largest ever
             | conceived of with no close second;_
             | 
             | And how would those ar-15 bros would fare against an
             | organized, professional army, with training, logistics, and
             | coordination, not to mention air support, tanks, and the
             | state on its side?
             | 
             | Not to mention most of those millions of gun owners would
             | need to be on the same side to begin with, to count
             | together.
             | 
             | > _perhaps here you will find the reason you enjoy more
             | liberties than someone living in china or north korea_
             | 
             | I doubt it, First Amendment aside, European countries are
             | freer than the US in more substantial ways (for starters,
             | they don't have the kind of kafka-esque over extention of
             | the law in the US, or the biggest ratio of prison vs
             | general population, SWAT-ized trigger-happy police, and so
             | on), and they don't have guns at home, except the
             | ocassional shooting rifle.
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | > And how would those ar-15 bros would fare against an
               | organized, professional army, with training, logistics,
               | and coordination, not to mention air support, tanks, and
               | the state on its side?
               | 
               | Depends on the terms of engagement and the makeup of the
               | professional army.
               | 
               | Are ar-15 bros going to effectively take and hold
               | territory? Maybe on a temporary basis, there's a lot of
               | potential objectives that are regularly barely defended.
               | But it's pretty easy to roll out the national guard or
               | whoever to flush people out if desired.
               | 
               | Can ar-15 bros be a significant problem for occupying
               | forces? Almost certainly yes.
               | 
               | If you wanted or needed to remove this group or their
               | weapons from a territory, it's going to be a major
               | challenge, and highly disruptive to the other occupants,
               | and that's going to inspire more people to take up arms.
               | This is insurgency 101.
        
               | Geisterde wrote:
               | You are so secretly obsessed with the thought of a civil
               | war you have taken to projecting your views on others. I
               | never said american gun owners were an army, nor did I
               | suggest an armed insurrection. It is merely a bulwark
               | against the most extreme forms of government oppression.
               | The cost of a more overt version of oppression of the
               | american public is too high for the government to
               | entertain. Regarding anything the government does, if
               | they cant do so quietly, then they must do so through
               | propaganda, and if they cant garner enough public support
               | then they back off.
               | 
               | The american public has no guns, only the occasional
               | shooting rifle. Did I do it right? You do not distinguish
               | between freedom and liberty, those liberties are at times
               | suspended. Things are definitely not ok in the united
               | states, but thats not what guns are there to stop at this
               | stage of our political system. The most valuable tools in
               | the day to day are encryption and censorship resistant
               | systems.
        
           | 2devnull wrote:
           | > How did people or groups challenging it with their guns (or
           | even peacefully) because they thought of it as an "oppressive
           | government" fared?
           | 
           | Well there was an American revolution that gave us our nation
           | in the first place. I'd say it fared mightily well.
        
           | flatline wrote:
           | Cliven Bundy still walks free as far as I know, which I
           | personally find mind-boggling, but there is precedence.
        
         | jfengel wrote:
         | At this point, I think it has less to do with a belief in a
         | complete gun ban, which seems an absurd thing to even
         | contemplate.
         | 
         | It's more that absolutely nothing is done at all. Not even
         | Sandy Hook produced any change whatsoever. A prominent argument
         | was that the entire thing was a fake for the purpose of banning
         | guns, tacitly admitting that reality did merit some kind of
         | change.
         | 
         | So at this point it's more of an indicator that politics has
         | utterly broken down. We can't meaningfully discuss a limit case
         | such as you bring up, because the answer is predetermined.
         | Between a Supreme Court composed two-thirds of candidates
         | vetted to allow no gun restrictions of any kind ever, and a set
         | of checks and balances in the Congress that requires a super
         | majority for any legislation, the argument is permanently
         | decided in favor of "doing nothing". Not just on this issue but
         | on every issue.
         | 
         | Compared to that worrying about Zombie George III reimposing
         | the Stamp Acts doesn't seem much like worrying about.
        
           | Geisterde wrote:
           | How do I relate this, from your prespective they do nothing
           | to fix an obvious issue. From their prespective it has
           | nothong to do with guns and are so absolved from
           | responsibility, they are only acting in reaction to a threat
           | to their lawful rights.
           | 
           | Its unfortunate that you are left with only reactionaries to
           | offer alternatives, because by nature they are predisposed to
           | telling you to pound sand. We could have a more healthy
           | relationship with guns, I think it starts with acknowledging
           | the role pharmaceutical drugs and investigating their effects
           | more publically. I would also support any kind of community
           | work in teaching responsible firearm operation, and more
           | generally promoting high ethical standards of conduct in
           | everyday life.
           | 
           | That said, the safest place I inhabit is work, with its
           | fences, badge readers, and security guards. The second safest
           | place is at home, with cameras, alarms and locks. Paying
           | administrators over security guards is a gross mismanagement
           | of government money.
        
           | a_gnostic wrote:
           | The supreme court, stacked or not, has no bearing over gun
           | ownership, nor does congress. "Congress shall make no law
           | [...] the right to bear arms shall not be infringed."
           | supercedes both of them.
        
             | sandworm101 wrote:
             | >> no bearing over gun ownership
             | 
             | Except they have great sway over definitions. They dictate
             | what "arms" actually means. They dictate whether that word
             | includes entire classes of weapons. The court currently
             | protects only guns, but a small reinterpretation of "arms"
             | could easily expand it to include bladed or explosive
             | weapons, both of which are not currently protected. Does
             | the 2nd cover flamethrowers? SCOTUS gets to make that
             | decision.
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | The current scope of "arms" does include most
               | conventional weapons but intersects with other boring
               | regulatory considerations, especially at the State level.
               | Anyone that can buy a gun can also fill out the paperwork
               | to buy or manufacture much heavier weaponry. Most people
               | don't because exercising the right is a headache. You
               | can't drive a main battle tank on a public street or
               | store a surface-to-air missile system in your backyard
               | for basic infrastructure, zoning, and safety reasons that
               | have nothing to do with the weapons per se. Small arms
               | present much less of a practical safety or nuisance risk
               | regardless of type, the same as any firearm.
               | 
               | The paperwork required is the trivial part. I have
               | friends that, essentially for a laugh, filed for and
               | received every Federal approval required to acquire
               | basically the entire range of conventional weaponry. It
               | had a similar level of scrutiny as applying for Global
               | Entry at the airport. If you exercised this, you still
               | need to comply with all the industrial regulations that
               | apply to non-weapons with similar properties, which is
               | expensive and inconvenient.
        
               | sandworm101 wrote:
               | >> The current scope of "arms" does include most
               | conventional weapons but intersects with other boring
               | regulatory considerations
               | 
               | If those other conventional weapons were covered as
               | "arms" under the 2nd, then those other boring regulations
               | don't matter. The fact that those regs even exist is
               | because so many weapons are specifically not covered as
               | arms. I can own an AR-15. I cannot own a switchblade. I
               | can own a 9mm semiautomatic, but I cannot own a small pen
               | gun. I can own a short shotgun (coachgun) but I cannot
               | own a crossbow in New York. Walk into a Nevada store with
               | a handgun on your hip or an AR over your shoulder and
               | nobody will bat an eye. But carry a sword and you will be
               | arrested. It was only a couple years ago that laws
               | banning "chain sticks" were struck down. SCOTUS has
               | consistently narrowed the 2nd to only protect guns. Most
               | ever other weapon is open for whatever reg the government
               | wants to enact.
        
               | User23 wrote:
               | Amusingly the well regulated militia subordinate clause
               | makes it very clear that the 2nd amendment is explicitly
               | intended to protect "weapons of war."
               | 
               | Sadly, since the Dick act, Congress has defined "well-
               | regulated" as "yeah, whatever." Nevertheless, since that
               | was Congressional intent it satisfies the well-regulated
               | requirement.
        
               | sterlind wrote:
               | Your friends were able to purchase new machine guns? Not
               | old ones that were grandfathered in, or modded to become
               | semi-auto?
        
             | clankyclanker wrote:
             | ...Not in practice? The US has had laws in the books
             | regulating gun ownership for almost a century.
             | 
             | https://time.com/5169210/us-gun-control-laws-history-
             | timelin...
        
             | lsy wrote:
             | This isn't true under current US jurisprudence: if a law
             | that infringes on a fundamental constitutional right can be
             | shown to be narrowly tailored to, and the least restrictive
             | means of achieving, a compelling state interest, then it
             | passes strict scrutiny and is considered constitutional.
        
               | impossiblefork wrote:
               | Isn't that for rights though? Surely these explicit
               | limits on congressional authority are more fundamental?
        
             | projektfu wrote:
             | Why did you start with the first phrase of the first
             | amendment, redact the rest of that amendment and the
             | beginning of the second, and then misquote the remainder?
             | 
             | "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security
             | of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear
             | Arms, shall not be infringed."
             | 
             | Grammarians have been puzzling over this text for many
             | years.
        
               | Geisterde wrote:
               | Why do we pretend that organizationally we exist in the
               | same environment as when they penned the constitution?
               | The people were the militia, and a free state implies the
               | freedom of the people, not the government.
        
               | CamperBob2 wrote:
               | _Grammarians have been puzzling over this text for many
               | years._
               | 
               | It would help if someone could find another phrase in the
               | Bill of Rights that refers to, or even alludes to, the
               | primacy of the rights of the state (whether "Congress" or
               | a collective state-sanctioned "militia") over those of
               | the citizenry.
               | 
               | There don't seem to be any such phrases, which lends a
               | lot of credence to those who argue that the preface to
               | the Second Amendment is just that -- prefatory, with no
               | functional or prescriptive aspect whatsoever. The Bill of
               | Rights is simply the wrong place to look for rules that
               | grant, rather than restrict, governmental authority.
        
               | Terr_ wrote:
               | I have a pet theory which tends to annoy both major sides
               | (not necessarily a sign of quality, but an interesting
               | property) and it rests on three facts:
               | 
               | 1. In the beginning everything in the Federal
               | Constitution--and _all_ the amendments--were understood
               | to be _only_ a restriction on the Federal government.
               | 
               | 2. Many restrictions on the federal government were
               | created out of states' concerns that it would be used
               | against them.
               | 
               | 3. The Second Amendment was drafted during the Articles
               | of Confederation, at time when every state was _required_
               | to support their own state-militia with arms /materiel,
               | including guns-on-wheels that could be pulled by a horse,
               | and the legislature had to appoint the upper-ranks.
               | 
               | So in combination, I argue the Second Amendment was
               | wrongly "incorporated", abusing its original legislative
               | intent of preserving a degree of state military autonomy.
               | So individual states can impose stronger restrictions if
               | they like, but on the other hand the federal government
               | can't complain if you tow around a 4-barrel flak-cannon
               | behind your truck.
        
             | chx wrote:
             | Except for the first two centuries after that was written
             | the Supreme Court didn't interpret that section to mean
             | anything goes. In particular, in 1939 it upheld a federal
             | ban on sawed-off shotguns (United States v. Miller). It was
             | not until 2008 when in District of Columbia v. Heller they
             | said the Second Amendment protects an individual right to
             | possess a firearm unconnected with service in a militia.
             | 
             | So it's not so clean cut as you'd think.
        
             | Terr_ wrote:
             | Under that wildly-expansive theory, people in prison for
             | murder _must_ be allowed to carry loaded guns around.
        
         | analog31 wrote:
         | Also, what is the game theory when an armed faction of the
         | people gain the ability to overthrow a democracy and install a
         | king, or at least, can credibly threaten to do so?
        
           | mrangle wrote:
           | Or how about overthrow a King and install a democracy?
           | 
           | The game theory is that it is likely that most of the time
           | successful Revolutions are backed by powerful opposing States
           | or quasi-States. Any others get squashed, but likely most
           | often don't get off of the ground to begin with.
        
             | analog31 wrote:
             | Perhaps a more interesting study is just to look at things
             | more incrementally. For instance is a slightly more heavily
             | armed population likely to enjoy slightly more rights, or
             | fewer? Should I be optimistic about my rights if I move to
             | a more heavily armed state or region?
        
               | mrangle wrote:
               | That would be interesting. I think you'd have trouble
               | finding enough incrementalism to provide meaningful data.
               | But a place to start might be in European nations that
               | only allow hunting guns.
        
               | analog31 wrote:
               | Indeed, and I think you could get more data by counting
               | countries that "allow" guns by default, simply by being
               | incapable of regulating them.
        
           | Geisterde wrote:
           | Generally speaking armed revolution ends with the
           | revolutionaries getting the short end of the stick, they were
           | the keys to aquiring some measure of power, but are no longer
           | useful for a regime focused on controlling its new territory.
           | Following that a constitution and new edicts arise that
           | cement state power while providing a thin vernier of
           | legitimacy.
           | 
           | As far as an armed group in the united states doing that, I
           | think we are a long way off from that. Although I would say
           | democracy is structurally flawed, so long as the american
           | public believes the foundation myth of their representation
           | holds, no such thing is possible. The easiest way then to
           | prevent an armed revolution, is to provide better
           | transparency to elections. You dont even really need to make
           | the elections fair; for instance im pretty sure republican
           | voters will go on accepting that their civil and economic
           | rights are trampled on; Democratic voters will go on
           | accepting disfunctional criminal justice, healthcare, and
           | education systems; so long as we arent playing games with who
           | and how votes are tallied and what level of transparency we
           | have over that process. Breaking that cycle, where the vast
           | majority would really rather unwittingly vote away
           | prosperity, requires a different type of revolution.
        
         | jMyles wrote:
         | You have successfully identified the growing and confusing
         | discomfort I have had with HN, without knowing myself its
         | basis.
         | 
         | I hope we can evolve into a community that is consistently
         | curious and thoughtful about consequences of policy decisions
         | in various game-theoretical concepts as you describe.
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | > What about gun ownership (oh thats the nerve), its easy to
         | assume things will be better when guns are banned, but what is
         | the actual game theory in the balance of power between a people
         | and their government when the people are stripped of their
         | ability to defend themselves from an oppressive government?
         | 
         | While this has surface appeal, this theory of "gun ownership as
         | bulwark against oppression" falls apart when you examine both
         | how the US still manages to exert power over its populace and
         | how democracies where guns are much harder to get continue to
         | function just fine.
        
           | gosub100 wrote:
           | > the US still manages to exert power over its populace
           | 
           | exert power != oppression
        
           | sandworm101 wrote:
           | >> the US still manages to exert power over its populace
           | 
           | Self-oppression. For all the fearmongering, the US population
           | is clearly able to install random people into high office and
           | rewrite the rules as they see fit. Both Obama and Trump are
           | clear evidence that you don't need to be from established
           | political families to gain power. Literally any idiot can be
           | elected should the people want them. Many are.
        
             | guyomes wrote:
             | Another indicator is the rate of citizen un prisons. The
             | laws on gun ownership doesn't prevent the US government to
             | have high rate of citizens incarcerated [1]. On the other
             | hand, US is a state of law, and in theory, US incarceration
             | does not come from oppression but from justice and written
             | laws [2]. Now even though gun ownership might be one way to
             | garanty that US remains a state of law, it is not obvious
             | that it is the only way. If US was not a state of law, I
             | would not be comfortable that GAFAM companies gets their
             | own armies, as in the funny dystopian novel Jenifer
             | Government [3].
             | 
             | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inc
             | arcera...
             | 
             | [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rechtsstaat
             | 
             | [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennifer_Government
        
         | jostmey wrote:
         | I like and appreciate your viewpoint. I push back on your
         | stance on gun ownership. How does your view change when
         | governments control weapons as powerful as nuclear weapons? How
         | does this tilt the balance of power when ordinary citizens only
         | have guns? Does this require a rethink?
        
           | a_gnostic wrote:
           | As if governments want to bomb the source of their power:
           | taxpayers, and their seizeable assets.
           | 
           | They will do so in war as denying it to their enemy, but not
           | with M.A.D. So ordinary people having guns has nothing to do
           | with war, except as a deterrent.
        
           | Supermancho wrote:
           | Guns are not an assurance that you can kill more people than
           | someone with bombs to win a slice of land, conceptually. Any
           | number groups have an interest in a stable economy and a
           | cooperating population. Bombs dont build or maintain
           | infrastructure (eg farming). Guns ensure a population can
           | manage to disrupt individual police actions. This modern
           | guerilla gunplay has never had to become more sophisticated
           | because of the efficacy in resisting day to day oppression
           | (depending on your definition). The US in Vietnam, everyone
           | in Afghanistan, Israel with Palestine. Bullets are dangerous
           | enough to influence history, as with nuclear weapons. Same
           | but different.
        
           | arzig wrote:
           | I consider "but ordinance" a red herring. One need only
           | observe the recent history of US military adventurism to show
           | that a sufficiently determined insurgency with light arms and
           | minimal training can take literally decades to surpress even
           | with probably numerical superiority.
           | 
           | The US government is unlikely to carpet bomb its own
           | territory even after hypothetically sliding into tyranny
           | because it would presumably want territory to rule
           | afterwards. What is left is intense urban fighting which
           | we've seen in Iraq or wilderness fighting in poor terrain
           | like Afghanistan. It doesn't end quickly so the cost is a
           | deterrent.
        
             | Geisterde wrote:
             | "The cost is a deterrent", well put.
        
           | Geisterde wrote:
           | As ive said in other comments, I think the their power is
           | foundationally based on propaganda. I think censorship
           | resistant methods of communication and other cypherpunk tools
           | are probably more relevant in the day to day of fighting
           | government overreach; I just think guns are something of a
           | prerequisite for that process to work. Yes, there is always
           | the possibility that the government starts nuking citizens
           | for challenging their power, which is why it is important
           | that any revolution takes place peacefully.
           | 
           | I wouldnt suggest anyone willingly enter an armed conflict
           | with the government for a variety of reasons. For example,
           | you are likely being played, after Maos revolution all the
           | revolutionaries got sent to the hills to be worked to death.
           | Another one would be your own information horizon being
           | manipulated, youve just walked into Gretchen whitmers office
           | thinking there is a huge militia ready to follow in your
           | footsteps, you only need to light the match! Violence sucks,
           | blood calls for more blood and errodes the social fabric;
           | there are USSR officials still collecting pensions in
           | exchange for getting out of the way. Or we could get nuked.
           | 
           | So yes, it does require some more forethought than "weve got
           | guns so we are just going to fight the government", however
           | there already exists an understanding of this, evidenced by
           | the fact that they are only catching the mentally stunted in
           | entrapment schemes.
        
         | jgeada wrote:
         | > What about gun ownership (oh thats the nerve), its easy to
         | assume things will be better when guns are banned, but what is
         | the actual game theory in the balance of power between a people
         | and their government when the people are stripped of their
         | ability to defend themselves from an oppressive government?
         | 
         | Funny, the French seem to have no trouble standing up against
         | their government while the armed US nuts seem ever so
         | compliant. Maybe it isn't the guns.
        
           | Geisterde wrote:
           | Everything in france is going according to plan, having
           | people rioting on the streets isnt necessarily something the
           | government is trying to prevent, it gives them the political
           | cover to enact totalitarian laws...which is precisely whats
           | happened there.
        
         | russdill wrote:
         | US history is full of the government oppressing and murdering
         | citizens. And yes, there's also many armed rebellions.
         | Precisely zero of them have overthrown the US government.
        
         | TeMPOraL wrote:
         | > _Dare I say, people should engage that part of their brain
         | with everything (...) What about the monetary system, surely we
         | could all take a step back and anaylze the mechanics of a
         | system that plays a 50% role in all economic transactions_
         | 
         | This is a great way for one to learn about Moloch - the by far
         | greatest threat humanity is facing. Moloch is the personified
         | generalization of all multiplayer games, where the payoff
         | matrix looks like this:                 | v Reward / Choice >
         | | X        | Y         |
         | |------------------------+----------+-----------|       | For
         | myself, short-term | good     | bad       |       | For all,
         | longer-term   | very bad | very good |
         | 
         | Problems for which, invariably, approximately everyone chooses
         | X, often knowing that they too will suffer the very bad
         | consequences with everyone else.
         | 
         | Moloch is the common core of all the big problems humanity is
         | facing, problems we seem unable to solve - surveillance
         | economy, inequality, climate change, you name it.
         | 
         | Unfortunately, recognizing the presence of the ancient demon's
         | namesake, and realizing the gravity of the situation, kind of
         | kills the mood - which is why most discourse on those topics is
         | rather unsophisticated and dominated by those who don't, as you
         | put it, "engage this part of their brain", whether because they
         | don't know how to use it, or because it's more fun/profitable
         | to not do it.
        
           | wolverine876 wrote:
           | > problems we seem unable to solve
           | 
           | The biggest problem is people saying this, that we're unable
           | to succeed. They are serving our enemies - spreading despair
           | is so obviously a bad idea that it's a fundamental of psyops
           | (not that the parent is doing psyops; my point is that it's
           | what an enemy would do).
           | 
           | And it's false; it's transparently false if we examine the
           | evidence for a moment. History is filled with people
           | sacrificing themselves, widely, for the greater good. The
           | simple example is warfare, but lots of people have low-paying
           | or lower-paying jobs because they want to do good, contribute
           | to the world.
           | 
           | It's good news - the news is actually good (I know that
           | totally violates social norms to say!): The good people far
           | outnumber the bad, they have the power, the ability; human
           | nature is on _their_ side; they just need to wake up and get
           | going - stop sitting around pop-theorizing about despair -
           | and many of the worst problems will be solved.
        
       | sandworm101 wrote:
       | >> That raises an obvious question: If they saw the problem with
       | torture, why did they continue to employ it?
       | 
       | I was part of a lecture covering a case where US police had
       | tortured out a false confession. The prof asked a Canadian
       | student if such a thing would happen in Canada. "No. The RCMP
       | wouldn't bother. If they need a confession they would just forge
       | one. Forgery is much easier than torturing someone."
        
         | afandian wrote:
         | Canadian police have form.
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saskatoon_freezing_deaths
        
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