[HN Gopher] Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom conv...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent
       people
        
       Author : rossant
       Score  : 178 points
       Date   : 2023-12-11 16:26 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.scientificamerican.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.scientificamerican.com)
        
       | thedigitalone wrote:
       | https://ghostarchive.org/archive/wETB7
        
       | albert_e wrote:
       | I was thinking about this just today randomly.
       | 
       | Every bit in computer memory or data store is just a bit flip
       | away from being completely wrong.
       | 
       | In other words all data corruption -- unintentional or
       | deliberate-- can be statistically shown as a bunch of off-by-one
       | errors.
       | 
       | Of course the chance of multiple random off-by-one errors lining
       | up exactly to help one party is astronomically low. But would a
       | typical court of law be able to discern?
        
         | andrewla wrote:
         | I don't think this categorization is technically correct, and
         | even in the places where it is partially correct I don't see
         | that the "off-by-one" phrasing adds any value.
         | 
         | Off-by-one errors are a very specific type of error in
         | algorithm implementation, where a closed boundary and an open
         | boundary are confused. A general bit flip is not really an
         | example of this unless it is connected to this specific kind of
         | mistake.
         | 
         | And data corruption is much broader, and can involve adding or
         | removing data from a stream in addition to mutating existing
         | data. Saying that all data mutations are a "bunch of off-by-one
         | errors" is just asserting that there exists a hamming distance
         | between any two binary representations of the same length, and
         | I don't think this adds a lot of insight.
         | 
         | On the other hand, using the term "off-by-one error" carries
         | with it a lot of baggage and connotations, most of which do not
         | apply to scenarios you have described or general data
         | corruption.
        
       | sneak wrote:
       | The police and prosecution are the ones using these tools to
       | attack innocent people. The article opens with a case of the
       | corrupt prosecution intentionally and illegally withholding
       | evidence.
       | 
       | This isn't about bad science, this is about bad prosecutors who
       | are more interested in convictions than justice.
       | 
       | Selective enforcement and opportunities to engage in misconduct
       | like this are endemic in the US criminal justice system. Police
       | and prosecutors have far too much power before and during trial,
       | and far too much wiggle room to seek convictions for innocent
       | people.
        
         | causal wrote:
         | I've always been perplexed by the incentive to get convictions.
         | This is guaranteed to result in prosecutors preferring any
         | method with a lot of false positives.
        
           | Zigurd wrote:
           | Separating evidence processing from law enforcement would be
           | a good step forward.
        
             | sneak wrote:
             | I think the system of American policing was originally
             | cooked up to enforce the existing social hierarchy via
             | selective enforcement, and it appears to remain mostly
             | unchanged because it seems to continue to serve that same
             | purpose.
             | 
             | Why would people with power to change it do so, when it is
             | working as intended? Prosecutors don't bring charges
             | against police and judges and senators and large
             | landowners/rightsholders (or the DNI).
        
           | qingcharles wrote:
           | If you're a prosecutor you need to prosecute. If you don't
           | win cases, you're not going to keep your employment. QED.
        
           | Lord-Jobo wrote:
           | Perverse incentives are one of the worst issues in modern law
           | enforcement. They exist at nearly every step and they are
           | causing a rot that will take decades lot of concentrated
           | effort to remove.
           | 
           | if you build a system, patchwork, entirely reactive, from the
           | deep roots of racism and anti-labor movements
           | (https://time.com/4779112/police-history-
           | origins/)(https://nl... and then ignore the nearly 50% rate
           | of decline in violent crime since
           | 1993(https://www.statista.com/statistics/191129/reported-
           | violent-...), and in fact, have a population undergo a rapid
           | INCREASE in PERCEIVED violent crime (https://content.gallup.c
           | om/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Pro...).... well its hard to
           | be surprised.
           | 
           | If we wanted to actually evolve our system, top to bottom, to
           | focus on reduced recidivism and a reduced prison population
           | without increasing violent crime, one of the first steps we
           | should take is a deep pass over every perverse incentive in
           | the system.
           | 
           | Revenue sources has to be the biggest category. Ignoring
           | salary, there are so many fines and fees that directly fund
           | the police. (https://www.brennancenter.org/series/how-
           | perverse-financial-...)
           | 
           | civil asset forfeiture is plain and open theft, and it
           | directly incentivizes as many arrests as possible.
           | 
           | incarceration facilities of all kinds are funded based on bed
           | space and occupancy for christs sake
           | (https://www.brennancenter.org/series/how-perverse-
           | financial-...)
           | 
           | Military cooperation agreements give all sorts of free
           | military tech to police agencies and swat teams, and they
           | constantly take christmas morning style photos with them
           | (https://wallpapercave.com/wp/wp9861590.jpg). a small town
           | near my hometown had a population of 4500 when the 'police
           | department' (police force was 30ish people) got a fucking APC
           | from the military for free. This was in 2010ish so i cant
           | find a direct source, but i did see it in person.
        
         | WaitWaitWha wrote:
         | > The police and prosecution are the ones using these tools to
         | attack innocent people.
         | 
         | ... and the defense fails to hire their own expert witness, or
         | use same exact method to keep people out of prison.
         | 
         | (Remember "If it doesn't fit, you must acquit"? Cochran did not
         | come up with it by himself, but an expert provided it to him,
         | the glove not fitting.)
         | 
         | Assuming you are talking about US, adversarial courts.
        
           | Lord-Jobo wrote:
           | the defense will always have less time and money to get their
           | own expert witness, and i can tell you for absolute certainty
           | that there is way more demand than supply for defense
           | experts.
           | 
           | and yes they have a million other disadvantages that are
           | SUPPOSED to be balanced by the advantage that the standard
           | burden of proof offers. but that is clearly failing if
           | prosecution experts are running rampant with few checks, and
           | 95-98%(!) of criminal cases plead out before a trial even
           | occurs. public defenders are time constrained in the extreme(
           | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/31/us/public-
           | def...), and public defendants are financially constrained in
           | the extreme. its a terrible mixture.
        
       | causal wrote:
       | It would be hard to really know, but I'm curious what percentage
       | of the total US prison population is innocent. Per capita prison
       | rate is still around 5 in 1000 according to Wikipedia, which is
       | very high for the developed world.
        
         | graphe wrote:
         | Innocent meaning they didn't do the specific crime, or innocent
         | as in someone with a clean record that was railroaded?
         | 
         | If you're looking for the criminal that killed a bunch of
         | people but not that specific case it's not that uncommon. If
         | you're looking for a squeaky clean guy that was there at the
         | wrong place at the wrong time it's very rare. Most criminals
         | are repeat offenders.
        
           | Zigurd wrote:
           | Most businesses create and cultivate repeat customers from
           | specific target markets. The US prison industrial complex is
           | adept at this.
        
             | graphe wrote:
             | What is the conclusion you're making?
        
               | mistrial9 wrote:
               | it is a revolving door in real ways
        
               | Zigurd wrote:
               | It starts with selective enforcement and repeated police
               | contact with young people. That's how the business of
               | imprisonment fills the funnel in the US.
        
           | klyrs wrote:
           | This is magical thinking. We know the guy was bad so we
           | locked him up for a crime. We don't know if we pinned the
           | right crime on him or not, but he's locked away safely now so
           | he must be bad.
           | 
           | If this is your genuine belief, it begs the question: why are
           | Americans, on average, such _terrible people_ when compared
           | to other first world citizens?
        
             | graphe wrote:
             | You don't just decide to lock someone up for a crime.
             | Police gather evidence, give it to a prosecutor, the
             | prosecutor makes a case (or not) and they will either go to
             | trial or plea, then it's in the hands of a jury or judge.
             | 
             | Claiming guilt to plea down to avoid a case is a problem,
             | but that isn't the case you're making. There's nothing
             | magical about criminal prosecution.
        
               | klyrs wrote:
               | > If you're looking for the criminal that killed a bunch
               | of people but not that specific case it's not that
               | uncommon.
               | 
               | Here you're saying that mass-murderers are common, but
               | despite their extensive trails of corpses, we can't pin
               | the _actual_ crime on an _actual_ criminal. No, there 's
               | nothing magical about criminal prosecution here, it's no
               | more than bullshit as you've described it.
               | 
               | Back to my question, why do you think mass-murderers are
               | so incredibly overrepresented in the American population?
        
               | graphe wrote:
               | Blame laws like fruit of the poisoned tree.
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fruit_of_the_poisonous_tree
               | 
               | If you want to act in bad faith and call it magic and
               | bullshit feel free to grandstand.
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | What is wrong with the poisonous tree doctrine in your
               | opinion? I find it isn't used widely enough against
               | police and prosecutor misconduct. There are too many ways
               | out of it for them.
        
               | graphe wrote:
               | It's in response to:
               | 
               | >Here you're saying that mass-murderers are common, but
               | despite their extensive trails of corpses, we can't pin
               | the actual crime on an actual criminal. No, there's
               | nothing magical about criminal prosecution here, it's no
               | more than bullshit as you've described it.
               | 
               | Everyone does illegal stuff in the US. Sometimes it's a
               | technicality that a guilty party goes free.
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | It's true that technicalities in the USA can lead to very
               | guilty defendants walking free from very serious crimes.
               | 
               | These doctrines were created by judges who were sick of
               | prosecutors and police violating the constitution and not
               | getting punished for it.
               | 
               | The solution is to fix the system to stop this misconduct
               | and then we could rid ourselves of this doctrine. It's a
               | fucked up system.
        
               | lesuorac wrote:
               | My main problem is that the person that suffers from the
               | poisonous tree is the public at large.
               | 
               | The actual criminal in this scenario (the police officer)
               | gets off carte blanche for breaking the law.
               | Additionally, if they managed to find evidence then an
               | additional criminal (the defendants) also gets carte
               | blanche. The only people punished is the public that now
               | have two known criminals that evaded justice!
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | I absolutely agree. The problem with the doctrine is that
               | it should not exist. The misconduct should be punished.
               | The doctrine only exists because there is no punishment
               | for the police or prosecutors.
        
               | UncleMeat wrote:
               | The limitations of section 1983 to let you sue cops for
               | violating your rights are not the fault of the
               | exclusionary rule.
               | 
               | Without the exclusionary rule the 4th amendment doesn't
               | really exist. Cops could just violate your 4th amendment
               | rights and then either arrest you if they find evidence
               | of a crime or go on their merry way. Yes, some people who
               | committed crimes go unpunished because the state fucked
               | up and couldn't manage to protect their legal rights
               | while investigating and arresting them. We _should_ place
               | a high burden on the state to dramatically disincentivize
               | it from violating our rights, even the rights of people
               | who commit crimes.
        
               | lesuorac wrote:
               | > Without the exclusionary rule the 4th amendment doesn't
               | really exist. Cops could just violate your 4th amendment
               | rights and then either arrest you if they find evidence
               | of a crime or go on their merry way.
               | 
               | I mean if I trespass on your property and take a handgun
               | and give it to police as evidence of the murder weapon
               | they can use that to convict you. You might have trouble
               | with a civil suit of trespassing against me but I doubt a
               | prosector couldn't also try me for trespassing.
               | 
               | The exclusionary rule is not in the constitution. The 4th
               | amendment does not describe what happens if its violated
               | and the fruit of the poisonous tree is entirely made up
               | by the court system in 1920 [1] over a century after the
               | constitution was written. Prior to that point there
               | wasn't a need of the fruit of the poisonous tree because
               | if even if you had a warrant you couldn't use my personal
               | possessions as evidence against me [2].
               | 
               | Although I don't really agree with either system. You
               | should be able to use warrants to get personal property
               | but taking person property without a warrant should
               | receive the same penalty no matter who takes it. i.e.
               | Cops should risk jail time for breaking the law like
               | everybody else. Obviously if a cop radios their
               | supervisor to verify they have a warrant and the
               | supervisor lies then the supervisor is on the hook and
               | not the cop.
               | 
               | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silverthorne_Lumber_Co
               | ._v._Uni... [2]:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere_evidence_rule
        
           | s1artibartfast wrote:
           | I believe, and I think the data supports, that the US prison
           | population is due to the number of laws we have, and the
           | harshness of our penalties.
           | 
           | A false conviction rate of a few percent does not explain an
           | order of magnitude level differences in incarceration between
           | countries.
           | 
           | I think an interesting question is what portion of the US
           | population would be incarcerated if the totality of our laws
           | were applied to everyone
        
             | graphe wrote:
             | US law is applied unequally. It's very harsh, sometimes
             | random and I've heard all Americans break the law daily. We
             | would all be in jail and sometimes prison.
             | 
             | US crime is like driving across the only road that is
             | covered in black ice with toll trolls on the way, you have
             | to cross it, you know it's there, and you can do it
             | carefully but you never know what will happen or where
             | you'll slip up.
        
             | qingcharles wrote:
             | Opinion of a criminal: I don't think there are too many
             | criminal laws at the State level. That is definitely not
             | the reason for high incarceration rates. The guys who are
             | in prison didn't randomly trip over a law they didn't know
             | existed. 99% of the laws are the same as they've been since
             | pre-history: don't hurt someone, don't steal etc.
             | 
             | Sentencing to prison is probably the key problem. Criminals
             | need help. Outright punishment just hardens them. From my
             | experience the bulk of crime has its origin in mental
             | illnesses which are not being treated. The medical system
             | in the USA almost certainly is the cause of this.
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | What about non-violent drug possession? AFAIK that all by
               | itself accounts for a significant number of incarcerated
               | people. Laws criminalizing that are a product of the war
               | on drugs, not embodying something in statute that's been
               | a common law crime throughout human history.
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | My understanding that this is largely a thing of the
               | past. Simple possession doesn't result in time, although
               | dealing can
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | Non-violent dealing (meaning possession for the purpose
               | of sale instead of use) would still be non-violent
               | possession.
               | 
               | It is a valid question what fraction of dealing (as
               | opposed to possession for personal use) is actually non-
               | violent. But even the violence is largely a product of
               | the war on drugs, just as the corresponding violence
               | surrounding illegal alcohol dealing during Prohibition
               | was a product of the war on alcohol. Take away the
               | prohibition and the violence went away.
        
               | graphe wrote:
               | How many of those are without a weapon?
               | 
               | Is intent to distribute fentanyl a non violent
               | possession? If so could you ever make a case it's non
               | violent dealing? If you don't see it as non violent
               | dealing, a store advertising date rape drugs should be
               | allowed to sell all their legal products.
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | It's often used as an aggravating factor in another
               | crime. If you're caught with a gun and some drugs then it
               | usually makes the gun crime radically more severe.
        
           | moate wrote:
           | Who cares? The job of the justice system is to match crime to
           | perpetrator and punish as society sees fit. Anything less
           | than that is a failure of the system. Also, lazy cops being
           | lazy and victimizing the same people they know have proven
           | themselves unable to mount a valid defense doesn't feel like
           | a feature of a society I'd be proud of.
           | 
           | This sounds dangerous close to "I know my enemies are evil
           | men, so even if I can't prove it they must be punished"
           | thinking, and that's how you get nazis.
        
             | graphe wrote:
             | You're writing emotionally.
             | 
             | Other people care and you don't. It doesn't mean it's not
             | something nobody should care about.
             | 
             | Do you think 'lazy cops' work harder at persecution?
             | 
             | Do you think cops convict and not judges and juries?
             | 
             | What do prosecutors do?
             | 
             | Do you think your idea of the job of the justice system is
             | the only correct one?
             | 
             | The justice system in the US isn't Judge Dreadd and I'm not
             | a nazi nor do I appreciate being called one.
        
               | moate wrote:
               | Hello Again. You seem to be confused about some things
               | from my last post, so I'll try to clear them up.
               | 
               | In order: 1-OH NO, NOT EMOTIONS!?!?!?!
               | 
               | 2- I don't care about the point you made (that, in your
               | opinion, most wrongful convictions are of people who were
               | guilty of other crimes) because it is a stupid thing to
               | say in this discussion. What are you trying to imply
               | there? Shouldn't people care about the cops doing a
               | better job of getting the right guy?
               | 
               | 3- The implication is that the type of cop who would just
               | go pull the usual suspects and INSIST one of them MUST
               | have done it isn't trying to solve a case, he's trying to
               | close a case. This does not implicate that ALL cops must
               | be lazy or attempt to victimize people. It's akin to
               | saying that cops that do bad things are bad cops. This
               | should not be controversial.
               | 
               | 4- No. This has fuckall to do with what I was posting
               | about.
               | 
               | 5- A complicated job weighing a myriad of factors, some
               | in the name of justice some in the name of keeping their
               | job. This has fuckall to do with what I was posting
               | about.
               | 
               | 6- I believe that the only true justice system is one
               | that exclusively matches a crime to the person/people who
               | committed that crime. Putting people in jail because they
               | were previously convicted of/plead guilty to a crime is
               | an abomination of the idea.
               | 
               | 7- I never said you were a Nazi, but if you believe that
               | your enemies are evil and that even if you can't prove it
               | they must be punished, then you are at minimum a fascist
               | though maybe all the specific tenets of National
               | Socialist German Workers' Party don't quite align with
               | your worldview.
               | 
               | My 1 question to you: Do you think that convicting people
               | (which is what the article is about) for a crime they
               | didn't commit is a bad thing? If so, why you fighting
               | with me?
        
           | andrewla wrote:
           | This is frequently cited by law enforcement and criminal
           | justice officials, but this is an impossible bar to set,
           | because they have not been convicted of those other
           | unspecified crimes. The excuse "he maybe didn't rob this
           | store, but he did rob those other stores, so let's nudge the
           | case a bit", even if done in good faith by law enforcement,
           | is still fishy, because ... why not convict them instead for
           | the other crimes being purported, since we're more confident
           | about them?
           | 
           | In many cases I think this is likely to be a post facto
           | rationalization for the fact that the case against the
           | suspect is weaker than initially thought but represents a
           | great deal of manpower that feels wasted if the suspect is
           | not convicted.
        
             | graphe wrote:
             | That definitely happens but lots of evidence is thrown out
             | and they are looking at throwing the law at him. A famous
             | case is Al Capone.
             | 
             | I'm not calling it right or wrong, it's just what happens
             | with the system in place. It's also shown to the public to
             | convict them. The jury has the ability to 'throw' the case
             | as they did in the case of OJ.
        
               | pc86 wrote:
               | Except Al Capone actually did what he went to prison for.
               | Yeah he did a lot of other stuff nobody could prove to
               | the standard of a courtroom, but what you're talking
               | about is someone "knows" Al Capone is bad, so they
               | fabricate crimes and evidence and frame him for those in
               | order to send him to prison. That would still be wrong.
               | This is a feature, not a bug.
        
               | lesuorac wrote:
               | A feature to the prosector maybe but a bug to the public
               | at large.
               | 
               | 1) People do convince themselves of falsehoods; the
               | person may not actually have done that initial crime. 2)
               | Being able to trump up lessor charges can be (ab)used
               | even if the person didn't commit an initial crime but
               | instead is just a ~journalist~ nuisance.
        
               | denton-scratch wrote:
               | Capone wasn't framed; have I misunderstood you?
        
         | Lord-Jobo wrote:
         | This is an obviously tough subject to get precise data on, but
         | dark figure analysis and innocence project data indicates that
         | the CONVICTED innocent percentage is 1-3%, i have seen
         | individual studies peak at 7% but those are outliers and not
         | likely to be the real number.
         | 
         | this seems really good until you realize its 20,000-140,000
         | people in prison right now. that are innocent.
         | 
         | and it gets REALLY bleak when you look at the 400,000 people
         | who are locked up at any given time, pretrial, in jail. who are
         | legally innocent. The proportion of individuals held in jail
         | pending trial increased from 56 percent of the jail population
         | in 2000 to 66 percent in 2018
         | (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-better-path-forward-
         | for...)
         | 
         | so, of the roughly 2 million people behind any bars at any
         | given time, 400,000-500,000 are innocent. 25%.
        
           | causal wrote:
           | Thanks for bringing that data. And yeah, half a million is a
           | staggering number if true.
        
           | qingcharles wrote:
           | And it completely depends on what you mean by innocent.
           | 
           | A lot of cases are won by defendants, who after spending
           | years in pretrial, find the prosecution did not have enough
           | evidence to convict them.
           | 
           | I've been witness to some far-out jury cases where the
           | defendant was massively guilty but the jury acquitted for
           | some reason. That's why I would often recommend a jury trial
           | in a lot of cases simply because juries have such a high
           | randomness attached to them.
        
             | annexrichmond wrote:
             | Hey hope you're doing well - have your charges have been
             | fully dropped finally?
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | 99% of them dropped two weeks ago. Working on the last
               | one now. Will post more once it is all over. Thank you!
        
               | annexrichmond wrote:
               | Love to hear it, good luck!
        
           | pc86 wrote:
           | I really don't think pretrial detention counts.
           | 
           | There is a long-standing and legitimate public interest in
           | detaining some people while they await trial. A court can
           | find you a flight risk, or a danger to society, during
           | arraignment before your trial without violating your due
           | process rights.
           | 
           | And I'm not sure "the proportion of individuals held in jail
           | pending trial" increasing means anything. What are the number
           | of cases this correlates to? Have the raw or per capita
           | numbers increased? What are the other reasons you could be
           | held in jail other than pending trial, which apparently
           | decreased from 44% to 34%?
           | 
           | And not to be too overly pedantic, but the original question
           | was about prison specifically which is distinctly different
           | from jail.
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | OK, having spent practically 10 years inside and having helped
         | 1000s of people with their cases, here's my single-person
         | perspective: at least 95% of the people locked up are guilty of
         | _something_ related to their charges. The justice system isn 't
         | completely off-kilter.
         | 
         | My main issues were that a) many people were overcharged (i.e.
         | charged with extra crimes they were not guilty of) simply to
         | obtain a plea deal; b) often police/prosecutor/judicial
         | misconduct was used to get the defendant into the justice
         | system and convict them; c) the sentences are often out-of-
         | whack compared to the crime; d) jails and prisons generally
         | offer very little value and rehabilitation.
        
           | cool_dude85 wrote:
           | 1 out of 20 is still pretty nasty given the size of the US
           | prison population.
        
             | csa wrote:
             | He said "at least".
             | 
             | And he specified "guilty of what they were charged with".
             | 
             | You also need to factor in the people who are guilty of
             | crime A (that they did commit but were not convicted of)
             | but are convicted of crime B (that they did not commit) for
             | whatever reason.
             | 
             | I've seen "street justice" like this. In some cases I think
             | it a net good (right outcome for the wrong reasons,
             | typically involving a serial criminal who manages to avoid
             | the "smoking gun"), but sometimes it's just an abuse of
             | power that needs to be rectified.
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | A lot of people in that 5% take a plea for a crime they
               | didn't commit because the plea is so sweet it saves them
               | from trial on all of the charges, some of which they
               | clearly did commit and might receive a higher sentence
               | for than the plea deal.
               | 
               | The overcharging is a trick by the prosecution to secure
               | the plea.
               | 
               | I see people charged with murder who plead to
               | manslaughter when the case was manslaughter from the
               | beginning, but who risks going to trial and being found
               | guilty of murder? Minimum on murder is usually 20 years
               | straight, whereas manslaughter is usually probationable.
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | What he wrote: _at least 95% of the people locked up are
               | guilty of something related to their charges_
               | 
               | What you wrote: _And he specified "guilty of what they
               | were charged with"._
               | 
               | These aren't the same. It's depressing to see someone
               | being misquoted on literally the same page as their
               | original statement, in a discussion about lack of
               | accuracy in legal proceedings.
        
               | csa wrote:
               | 1. I am not a lawyer or an LEO.
               | 
               | 2. This is not a court of law or a legal arm of anything.
               | Quite the contrary, it's a social forum.
               | 
               | 3. I don't think any point you made materially changes
               | the relevance of my point(s).
               | 
               | I appreciate being accurate and precise, but focusing on
               | intent of communication goes a long way.
        
       | armchairhacker wrote:
       | I didn't see it mentioned, another case of bad math used in court
       | (unsurprisingly to convict a black person):
       | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mTNlVAz2fdA
       | 
       | And while Googling I found another video by the same channel
       | (Vsauce2): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OMr6zCXwuns
        
       | causal wrote:
       | Note that proportionately few of our federal judges have spent
       | any time as public defenders, and a disproportionately high
       | number have served as prosecutors. Jackson is the first supreme
       | court justice to have served as a public defender, whereas 3
       | other justices have been prosecutors.
       | 
       | Prosecutors are incentivized to get convictions, and that slanted
       | thinking could easily be carried on to the bench.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/few-public-
       | defenders-b...
        
         | tiahura wrote:
         | Being primarily a civil attorney, I'm well aware of the
         | disproportionate number of former prosecutors on the bench. A
         | couple of points:
         | 
         | 1. Most prosecutors are liberals. It's not like right wing law
         | students go looking for jobs in prosecutor's offices. I can't
         | think of any from my class way back when.
         | 
         | 2. The problem is more that judges and prosecutors are old
         | colleagues. The slant is that they all know the defendants are
         | guilty. There's so much crime, and aversion to losing trials,
         | that (unless politics is involved) prosecutors tend to only
         | bring cases where the defendant is clearly guilty. They like
         | shooting fish in a barrel. If they find that there are problems
         | with a case they tend to let the defendant get continuance
         | after continuance until the case just goes away on its own.
        
           | causal wrote:
           | Thanks for that insight. My discomfort is with the notion
           | that they could know that the defendant is guilty- sure there
           | may be some obvious cases, but I do not trust most humans to
           | differentiate their intuition from hard evidence.
        
             | swells34 wrote:
             | And unfortunately, judges are the only legal entity
             | empowered to use their intuition for legal decision making.
             | Sentencing is a good example; judges can kinda just decide
             | sentences based on feel. Just throw some number out there.
        
               | nonrandomstring wrote:
               | That's not unfortunate, it's the system working as
               | intended. Not being funny but that's why we call them
               | _judges_. You can 't have everything decided in advance
               | by an algorithm baked into the system, part of the system
               | is devolved deciding, sometimes called "equity".
        
           | eropple wrote:
           | I think your point on #2 makes quite a lot of sense, but #1
           | rings hollow. Plenty of erstwhile liberals hoist the black
           | flag when there's inconvenience in _their own_ neighborhoods;
           | no reason to think it isn 't similarly situational with
           | regards to people who are incentivized towards securing
           | conviction.
        
             | petsfed wrote:
             | To pile on, part of the conflict between liberals and those
             | further left is that "law and order liberal" is a thing.
             | That is, while liberals might concede that the justice
             | system is flawed, there's still an underlying faith that
             | the system will get it right the overwhelming majority of
             | the time.
             | 
             | The extreme radical position is that the justice system is
             | fundamentally and irredeemably broken, and that there is no
             | way that a conscientious leftist could work with, let alone
             | within, a system that exists only to oppress the people and
             | reinforce the power of the ruling elite.
             | 
             | There's obviously a lot of gray between those two
             | positions, but the punchline is that its very possible to
             | be a liberal DA. e.g. Chesa Boudin's stated goals exemplify
             | what that's supposed to look like, although without unified
             | support from the police and the judiciary, Chesa Boudin
             | also exemplifies what would actually happen.
             | 
             | Experiences like that drive the broader leftist calls to
             | defund or abolish the police. If you can't get buy in from
             | the entire judicial system to reform itself, then _just_
             | getting a leftist prosecutor elected /appointed will
             | quickly lead to that prosecutor either being ejected from
             | the position, or co-opted by the system they were trying to
             | fix.
        
           | qingcharles wrote:
           | Being primarily a criminal, #1 doesn't follow my experiences.
           | I've been very friendly with a large number of prosecutors in
           | my time, and I can't imagine a single one of them being a
           | liberal.
           | 
           | #2 it is totally true that prosecutors heavily rely on the
           | judges being ex-colleagues of theirs. I have never heard of a
           | prosecutor only bringing charges where the defendant is
           | clearly guilty, though. That does not follow my experience,
           | primarily in pre-trial detention, where I got to read the
           | discovery materials in thousands of cases. Obviously they
           | have a bar in felony cases of having to pass a grand jury,
           | but it was once said you could get a grand jury to indict a
           | ham sandwich.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ham_sandwich#Cultural_impact
        
           | Clubber wrote:
           | >prosecutors tend to only bring cases where the defendant is
           | clearly guilty.
           | 
           | How does that square with overcharging? Seems like a trend is
           | to throw a bunch of charges at person in hopes they will cop
           | a plea deal, which is considered a win. (cheating IMO).
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overcharging_(law)
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | That's how you know they're guilty -- by tacking on some
             | charges that _everyone_ is guilty of. Of course, you don 't
             | charge everyone with them, only the people who are being
             | charged with something else. That way prosecutors can
             | maintain a high conviction rate.
             | 
             | Heuristic: Any law that too many people are charged with
             | should be repealed. Either too much of the population
             | doesn't think it should be illegal even past the point of
             | purposely not respecting it, or it's excessively broad and
             | too many people are violating it unintentionally.
        
             | tiahura wrote:
             | They charge you with the crime you did, and a bunch of bs
             | charges as well.
             | 
             | This puts pressure on you to take a deal pleading to a
             | reduced charge and all the other charges go away.
        
           | WarOnPrivacy wrote:
           | >prosecutors tend to only bring cases where the defendant is
           | clearly guilty.               >They like shooting fish in a
           | barrel.
           | 
           | Desire to Convict is tied to many factors that aren't Ease of
           | Conviction.
           | 
           | Ease of conviction is tied to many factors that aren't guilt.
        
           | ska wrote:
           | > prosecutors tend to only bring cases where the defendant is
           | clearly guilty.
           | 
           | This isn't quite right. Prosecutors tend to only bring cases
           | where they judge they can win (including pleas, etc.).
           | 
           | There is some correlation with guilt, sure, but it's not by
           | any stretch the only thing going on.
        
         | Dalewyn wrote:
         | Obligatory IANAL.
         | 
         | >Prosecutors are incentivized to get convictions,
         | 
         | Their entire job is to get convictions. It literally doesn't
         | matter if the prosecutor thinks someone should be convicted or
         | not, that's for the judge to decide. The job of a prosecutor is
         | to make as strong a case for conviction as he possibly can.
         | 
         | Likewise, the job of a lawyer representing a defendant is to
         | make as strong a case for acquittal as he possibly can. Whether
         | the lawyer thinks someone should be acquitted or not literally
         | doesn't matter.
        
           | qingcharles wrote:
           | It's actually rarely for the judge to decide except in a
           | bench trial.
           | 
           | The other options are: jury trial, plea deal and dismissal.
           | 
           | Almost every case ends in a plea deal which is really just
           | between the prosecutor and the defendant with the judge just
           | putting a stamp on it.
        
           | function_seven wrote:
           | > _It literally doesn 't matter if the prosecutor thinks
           | someone should be convicted or not, that's for the judge to
           | decide. The job of a prosecutor is to make as strong a case
           | for conviction as he possibly can._
           | 
           | It's unfortunate that you're probably right in the _de facto_
           | sense. This is how many prosecutors view their role. But it
           | 's wrong. This is _not_ the prosecutor 's objective. Their
           | obligation is to strive toward justice, not a conviction. If
           | a prosecutor has a reason to believe the accused is not
           | guilty, they have an obligation to act on that. To dismiss
           | the charges, to share their belief with the defense, etc.
           | 
           | Here's someone explaining it[0] better than I can:
           | 
           | > _The United States Attorney is the representative not of an
           | ordinary party to a controversy, but of a sovereignty whose
           | obligation to govern impartially is as compelling as its
           | obligation to govern at all, and whose interest, therefore,
           | in a criminal prosecution is not that it shall win a case,
           | but that justice shall be done. As such, he is in a peculiar
           | and very definite sense the servant of the law, the two-fold
           | aim of which is that guilt shall not escape or innocence
           | suffer. He may prosecute with earnestness and vigor--indeed,
           | he should do so. But, while he may strike hard blows, he is
           | not at liberty to strike foul ones. It is as much his duty to
           | refrain from improper methods calculated to produce a
           | wrongful conviction as it is to use every legitimate means to
           | bring about a just one_
           | 
           | Another good quote [1]:
           | 
           | > _For this reason, while a lawyer defending a man accused of
           | a criminal offense should "exert all his ability, learning,
           | and ingenuity, in such a defence, even if he should be
           | perfectly assured in his own mind of the actual guilt of the
           | prisoner," a lawyer should never prosecute "a man whom he
           | knows or believes to be innocent."_
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor#United_States
           | 
           | [1] https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer
           | =&h...
        
       | Lord-Jobo wrote:
       | Wow, a hackernews topic thats actually directly related to my
       | specialty.
       | 
       | Anyway, this article is spot on and this is a really rampant
       | specific issue.
       | 
       | "expert witnesses have often overstated the probative value of
       | their evidence, going far beyond what the relevant science can
       | justify."
       | 
       | This is the absolute center of the issue. Experts are used by the
       | prosecution AND defense, but the experts used by the prosecution
       | are often times so hilariously and openly biased that its insane
       | how little pushback they get. Career cops with poor credentials
       | that spend 30 years going from witness stand to witness stand
       | saying literally whatever. You can definitely find biased 'pay
       | for opinion' style experts for defense (its a profitable industry
       | after all), and ive had the misfortune of trying to course
       | correct them and their clients, but they are less frequently
       | biased via a long career in law enforcement, and more
       | importantly, get absolutely flambeed when they display the same
       | level of bullshit as prosec witnesses. There are actual possible
       | consequences for defense experts who lie, you get roasted in a
       | news article that shows up on every google search and nobody with
       | integrity will hire you ever again. That just doesnt happen for
       | prosecution experts, ever. most media is terrified to highlight
       | those bad actors because of the huge pushback they get from
       | cops/cop unions/and more importantly the rabid facebook populace
       | that will NOT stand for police criticism. and judges will very
       | rarely hand down sanctions. after all, over a third (37 percent)
       | of sitting justices (state supremes) are former prosecutors,
       | while only 7 percent are former public defenders.
       | (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/stat...)
       | 
       | The article cites a few specific examples of experts creating a
       | huge wake of bullshit in the legal field as they trudge around
       | making stuff up, but a more convincing writeup with broader
       | examples of fraud in the field was done by the intercept here
       | (https://theintercept.com/2015/04/24/badforensics/) in 2015. I
       | can assure you the problem is still bad.
       | 
       | Dont think its better with digital evidence just because there
       | are hash values and log files. I have seen (insert f.agency here)
       | plainly and clearly fabricate evidence (and get away with it).
       | Countless instances of smart people who, definitely, beyond any
       | doubt, know and understand what their evidence ACTUALLY
       | indicates, and instead inflate its value to a ludicrous degree.
       | 
       | TLDR; If its physical evidence, and not exact DNA match(think
       | tire marks, blood spatter, bite marks), its wouldnt remotely be
       | accurate enough to be court admissible if the courts were
       | functioning properly and vetting expert witnesses properly. if
       | its digital evidence, and there are claims like "person was at
       | location x,y,z at time a,b,c" and not in the format "the device
       | was more likely than not in the general vicinity at the general
       | time" then they are talking out of their ass. in absence of
       | security footage or the like.
       | 
       | my bias: if it wasnt obvious, i work with the defense the
       | majority of the time, on digital evidence, and i am going to see
       | and remember the transgressions of the other side more often. i
       | try to account for that. not a lawyer. so much to learn in the
       | field still. just an internet ignoramus
        
         | twisteriffic wrote:
         | Wondering how you got in to that field?
         | 
         | A few years back I was asked to informally provide a technical
         | review the prosecution's evidence in a case involving a former
         | colleague. The police expert's sole credentials were a 10 year
         | old A+ certification and a few employer-sponsored day courses,
         | but was confidently representing themselves as an expert in
         | networking/computing/technology. Their theory of the case was
         | brutal - filled with nonsensical jargon, fabrications and
         | misrepresentations. Things like "a computer behind a NAT is
         | unreachable from the Internet under any circumstances".
         | Instances where timestamps were implied to correlate but were
         | actually 6+ hours apart once time zones were factored in. Pages
         | and pages of things in that vein.
         | 
         | None of that mattered - they were convicted anyway. It broke my
         | faith in the justice system. The prosecution behaved in exactly
         | the same way as today's legions of right-wing conspiracists,
         | grifters and politicians do, because the truthfulness of their
         | words didn't matter to them. Because the defense cared about
         | the accuracy of what they were stating, they could be easily
         | drowned out by confident, rapid bullshit and innuendo.
         | 
         | I desperately want to find a way to help make the system
         | better, but at every avenue the response has been "it's your
         | funeral".
        
           | Lord-Jobo wrote:
           | Stumbled aimlessly from biology to IT to philosophy to comp
           | sci to criminology, got a lucky internship while working on
           | data recovery and hardware repair. Lots of informal ways to
           | break in right now because demand is very high but the
           | overlap of legal/technological is still hard to find. So many
           | private agencies will take anyone with decent creds right
           | now. I would straight up cold call medium sized (<12
           | people)private investigators and law firms if i was looking
           | for work right now.
           | 
           | Your story is sadly pretty common. networking might be the
           | worst area for expert testimony right now because its so
           | filled with proprietary tech and non-standardized jargon.
           | ESPECIALLY the timezones, holy crap the amount of people who
           | refuse to work in UTC. But that theme of 'ancient certs,
           | terrible lazy theory' and zero pushback, is pretty much the
           | norm outside of federal homicide cases. and even then.
           | 
           | Im not going to pretend that defense teams are immune to the
           | kind of 'ends justify the means' wishful thinking, but ive
           | never seen even 1/5th the lazy fabrications or insane ass-
           | pulls.
        
         | Dyac wrote:
         | I think the geolocation stuff is particularly concerning.
         | Expert witnesses try to use it to prove which side of a road
         | someone was on, or what route they took from point A to point B
         | or something.
         | 
         | My phone (Pixel 6) regularly gets my location wrong. I have
         | lived in the same house, with the same router and same phone
         | for years, yet every week it randomly tags incorrect
         | coordinates on my photos, in some cases putting them a mile or
         | more away, in a field or on the other side of town.
         | 
         | For me this is a minor annoyance (and one I can't correct on my
         | phone - it won't let me edit the coordinates because they were
         | supplied by the phone. I guess I could edit the EXIF data on a
         | computer if I cared to), but for someone being prosecuted it
         | could place the trustworthiness of testimony under doubt or
         | undermine their defense etc, with "their word against hard
         | data".
        
           | qingcharles wrote:
           | I got arrested every day for months because GPS said I wasn't
           | at home on house arrest.
           | 
           | https://chicagoreader.com/news-politics/false-alarms/
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | The prosecution brought an FBI forensic expert to testify
         | against me and he was fantastically fair and had extremely deep
         | knowledge. I was very impressed with him. I was expecting
         | something totally different from all my reading of books of
         | false convictions.
        
       | tiahura wrote:
       | The article doesn't prove anyone was actually innocent, only that
       | dodgy science was admitted. In the highlighted case, I'm assuming
       | the victim's multiple identifications of Odom as the perp was
       | also fairly persuasive to the jury.
        
         | csours wrote:
         | Have we discovered how to prove a negative and I missed it? Or
         | do we still have to look at the balance of evidence?
         | 
         | In other words: in most justice systems, the prosecution must
         | produce evidence of guilt, they hold the burden.
         | 
         | It's also very important to know that (in the US justice
         | system), evidence of innocence is not persuasive to appellate
         | courts; they are looking for abuse of process.
         | 
         | ---
         | 
         | Now, cognition is a different matter altogether. When something
         | terrible has happened, the human mind looks for the cause,
         | specifically for the person who caused the terrible event.
         | 
         | Sometimes, there is a person who did a crime - when someone is
         | shot, that is generally treated as a crime.
         | 
         | But sometimes sick people die. Sometimes infants fail to
         | continue breathing. Sometimes wildfires burn a town and kill
         | people. Sometimes viruses jump from (non human) animals to
         | humans.
         | 
         | In other words, in human cognition, satisfaction is more
         | important than truth. Scientific truth is a framework whereby
         | we delay our satisfaction with an answer, using specific tools
         | that are socially accepted in that field of study.
        
           | tiahura wrote:
           | "Have we discovered how to prove a negative"
           | 
           | Yes. You prove Odom was in Canada at the time, or that no
           | crime actually occurred, or that someone else did it, etc.
           | There are multiple ways to prove he didn't do it.
        
       | adamsb6 wrote:
       | Even photo and video evidence suffers from courtrooms that don't
       | understand how nearly all cameras will record and encode images.
       | 
       | JPEG encoding (and thus MPEG encoding) takes 8x8 blocks of pixels
       | and represents them as a discrete cosine transform. In a very
       | real way these pixels don't actually exist. If your video
       | evidence relies on such a small portion of MPEG encoded video,
       | you can easily mislead a jury to convicting an innocent person.
       | 
       | I'm reminded of the Rittenhouse trial where the prosecutors had a
       | technician massage a still from a video for hours until some very
       | tiny collection of pixels, enlarged from the original by quite a
       | bit, were arranged in such a way that they said demonstrated
       | Rittenhouse initiated aggression against the first man he shot.
       | 
       | The defense actually had some idea about such a small collection
       | of pixels not being a reliable representation of reality, but
       | couldn't sufficiently explain it and didn't have an expert who
       | could, so the judge allowed it.
        
         | Lord-Jobo wrote:
         | This is one of the better litmus tests to see if the expert
         | witness is knowledgeable in the field, and more importantly,
         | up-to-date on the tech. some really smart but definitely older
         | expert witnesses will fumble this very hard.
         | 
         | Its not like those kinds of processes, the "enhancing" filters,
         | are inherently bad or inadmissible, you just have to be clear
         | with the judge and jury what the hell is actually happening.
        
           | gjsman-1000 wrote:
           | This also came up in the Johnny Depp trial, where evidence
           | was challenged and there was a long discussion about whether
           | a video that had been shared over AirDrop was admissible, or
           | whether that should be considered tampering, due to the
           | possibility of it being re-encoded / compressed (which is a
           | theoretically possible concern, as doesn't iPhone record in
           | HEVC but change it to H.264 when shared with people?)
        
           | thfuran wrote:
           | >This is one of the better litmus tests to see if the expert
           | witness is knowledgeable in the field, and more importantly,
           | up-to-date on the tech
           | 
           | It's an absolute travesty that it should fall to expert
           | witnesses at all. Judges, police, and criminal trial lawyers
           | should know how common forms of evidence work in general.
        
             | Lord-Jobo wrote:
             | In my experience its just that technological ignorance
             | muddies things so much that smart judges who otherwise
             | understand evidence and admittance well will be silent when
             | they arent sure, or worse, get actively bamboozled by
             | shitters.
        
           | brigade wrote:
           | And conversely, it's a good litmus whether to listen to the
           | "experts" on websites like this one. So many would discount
           | literally _any_ image /video evidence just because of JBIG2's
           | pattern matching or Samsung's ML model of the moon, without
           | bothering to think about what's actually happening in the
           | relevant pipeline.
        
         | gruez wrote:
         | >I'm reminded of the Rittenhouse trial where the prosecutors
         | had a technician massage a still from a video for hours until
         | some very tiny collection of pixels, enlarged from the original
         | by quite a bit, were arranged in such a way that they said
         | demonstrated Rittenhouse initiated aggression against the first
         | man he shot.
         | 
         | Is there an article with more on this?
        
           | rpmisms wrote:
           | Didn't find any with a cursory search, but the full trial is
           | available on YouTube, and this particular argument is
           | incredibly frustrating to watch. The judge should never have
           | allowed it in.
        
           | adamsb6 wrote:
           | Not terribly in depth, but this is about the evidence I
           | referenced: https://apnews.com/article/kyle-rittenhouse-
           | technology-wisco...
           | 
           | IMHO any upscaling in court should be strictly squaring
           | existing pixels, along with heavy caveats on how encoding
           | works. A 16X zoom means one black pixel becomes sixteen
           | pixels, and jurors have to know that the individual pixel may
           | not have ever been an accurate representation of reality.
           | Anything else, even nearest neighbor, is adding information.
           | 
           | Especially with recent smart phones that are using AI to
           | perform "super zoom" techniques you could easily magic into
           | existence something that never existed.
        
           | Ukv wrote:
           | This is the "clarified" video frame in question, alleged to
           | show Rittenhouse aiming his rifle at protesters:
           | https://i.imgur.com/7uWonoK.png (unfortunately with some
           | extra degradation due it it being a screenshot from the trial
           | footage)
           | 
           | The glob of pixels to the left, interpreted as Rittenhouse's
           | support hand, was actually part of the vehicle already
           | present in the frames before he approaches:
           | https://i.imgur.com/4itI2r8.png
        
       | lkbm wrote:
       | The first time I remember running across this was /Innumeracy/
       | (1988) by John Allen Paulos. It's been discussed for decades, and
       | as best I can tell hasn't really been addressed at all.
       | 
       | I don't know the solution. Ideally, everyone would be good at
       | math, but I don't see that happening in the near future. My best
       | answer is for us to provide every court have an on-call
       | statistician, reviewing every case. I would hope big law firms
       | are already doing this, but you should get a mathematically-sound
       | judgement even if you have to depend on an underfunded and
       | overworked public defenders.
       | 
       | (More recently, I've been wondering this about scientific
       | publishing. Misusing statistical tests--or choosing the wrong
       | once seems--like a fairly common source of error in peer-reviewed
       | science. It feels like there, too, we need expert statisticians
       | carefully reviewing every paper of note. Given the amounts
       | charged by some journals, it feels like a reasonable service to
       | demand of them.)
        
         | pc86 wrote:
         | > My best answer is for us to provide every court have an on-
         | call statistician, reviewing every case.
         | 
         | Is this not the exact reason for expert witnesses?
        
           | twisteriffic wrote:
           | Expert witnesses can be cripplingly expensive. Having a
           | gratis sanity check sounds like a great idea, assuming you
           | can find some way to insulate them from influence.
        
             | claytonjy wrote:
             | Can confirm. I worked at a small statistics consultancy
             | where the owner did some expert testimony, and you have to
             | reveal what you charge. The opposing side was often paying
             | 500+/hr for shoddy work!
             | 
             | I think we've seen stories of Ivy League professors
             | charging thousands per hour, and making the bulk of their
             | income this way. Not sure how high it goes in the most
             | high-profile cases.
        
           | Thrymr wrote:
           | Expert witnesses are inherently adversarial, like the court
           | system itself. There is no "neutral" evaluation of the
           | reliability of a piece of evidence. If one side hires an
           | expert to evaluate something, they are under no obligation to
           | have the expert testify in court if the evaluation doesn't
           | help their case.
        
             | denton-scratch wrote:
             | > Expert witnesses are inherently adversarial
             | 
             | In the UK, expert witnesses are "servants of the court".
             | Sure, they're paid by one side or the other; but they're
             | witnesses, and they're required to give true, unbiased
             | testimony, on pain of a perjury charge. Is it not the same
             | inthe USA?
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | > My best answer is for us to provide every court have an on-
         | call statistician, reviewing every case.
         | 
         | Anyone paid by the government is always going to know which way
         | their bread is buttered. They would always be looked on with
         | extreme suspicion. Even public defenders have this problem
         | defending their clients when they are paid by the same
         | government that is prosecuting the defendant.
        
         | stult wrote:
         | It would help if the legal profession (at least in the US) did
         | not actively select against numeracy. The running joke in law
         | school is that everyone who was a decent student but bad at
         | math goes to law school because the LSATs do not have a math
         | component, unlike the GREs. I'm an engineer and former lawyer,
         | and when I was in law school I actually ended up taking a
         | really disproportionate number of tax law classes because I was
         | so much better than my average peer at basic arithmetic that I
         | could always beat the curve in classes that required basic
         | calculations. And we're not talking about even intro level
         | algebra, just basic arithmetic. Addition, subtraction, some
         | multiplication and division.
         | 
         | By ignoring math skills altogether, the legal profession
         | necessarily ends up selecting for individuals who on average
         | have a poorer understanding of anything quantitative or
         | statistical, and often that also correlates with poorer
         | understanding of _all_ technical and scientific matters,
         | because the same innumeracy means those individuals don't make
         | it far any sciences at all, even in their secondary or tertiary
         | education. So they often don't even have strong fundamentals on
         | the basic concepts in those areas.
         | 
         | As an engineer, it was maddening to witness and absolutely
         | pervades every aspect of the US legal system. Which both
         | translates into reaching false factual conclusions as in OP,
         | but also infects legal reasoning with a ridiculous lack of
         | rigor (a point which lawyers often dispute vigorously, but they
         | have no concept of just how much rigor they lose by eschewing
         | mathematical and especially statistical reasoning), and it also
         | translates into poorer operational efficiency and
         | administrative efficiency in the legal system, and poorer
         | outcomes from the regulatory system, which, while often
         | informed by technical concerns, remains a primarily legal- and
         | lawyer- driven process. That opens up regulatory bodies to
         | subjective political concerns where there is absolutely no
         | reasonable technical case to be made. This phenomenon is most
         | obvious in recent history with climate change related
         | regulations, but is pervasive throughout the US policy making
         | establishment, and contributes substantially to our challenges
         | with special interests and regulatory capture.
        
       | the-dude wrote:
       | Glad to see Lucia de Berk mentioned, a high profile Dutch case.
       | 
       | Although she was acquited after some years, it wrecked her.
        
       | graphe wrote:
       | If we accept that court cases will have a non zero error rate,
       | what rate are we comfortable with? Court cases are irregular,
       | judges, the jury, the experts and the type of prosecution
       | matters. Are we more comfortable with different crimes at
       | different rates?
       | 
       | In the US, you're presumed innocent (in the eyes of the law) and
       | many in cases the law can tip the balance over a technicality,
       | such as fruit of the poisoned tree and inability to admit some
       | evidence that would be essential in a layman's eyes. How would a
       | court be robust against problems such as biased experts, juries
       | and judges? Would we be more comfortable with a lower or higher
       | than average conviction rate? Is the problem the prisons?
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | I read about a case once where a man was convicted of rape. The
       | evidence was that the rape was done face-to-face with the victim,
       | and the victim positively ID'd him. How could she not, when she
       | was face-to-face with him? It was a slam dunk.
       | 
       | After some years in prison, the convicted person managed to get a
       | DNA test, which proved he was not the rapist. How could this be?
       | 
       | It turns out the DNA matched a convicted sex offender who had, in
       | the meantime, died in prison. A picture of him showed that he
       | looked just like the falsely convicted man.
       | 
       | The victim, to her credit, profusely apologized for mis-
       | identifying him, but she acted in good faith.
        
         | 10000truths wrote:
         | Do you have a link to the case details? At the very least,
         | there has to have been some additional evidence to convict,
         | even if circumstantial. I find it hard to believe that someone
         | can be ruled guilty of a crime as serious as rape based solely
         | on the plaintiff's testimony.
        
           | tonyedgecombe wrote:
           | Here is an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66513959
        
           | 2devnull wrote:
           | >I find it hard to believe
           | 
           | I find it hard to believe you find it hard to believe. :)
           | There's a cliche term for such cases, "he said/she said" and
           | they are not at all uncommon.
        
             | bawolff wrote:
             | I dont think this term applies here - usually that term is
             | reserved for one or both parties misrepresenting the
             | situation. Here we have mistaken identity, which i would
             | consider different.
        
               | 2devnull wrote:
               | My point stands. These are not uncommon cases. The
               | justice system has obvious flaws and frequently goes
               | awry. Mistaken identity, false testimony, wrongful
               | convictions should be common knowledge.
        
           | cafard wrote:
           | Was this the case involving Alice Sebold? The man was
           | cleared, but I don't remember whether DNA evidence was
           | involved.
        
           | DrunkOnPower wrote:
           | Sounds like Steven Avery's rape conviction. He was convicted
           | even though he had an alibi.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | No. Sorry.
        
         | graphe wrote:
         | This indicates that the jury/judge also failed the innocent
         | man. What would have saved him? Are these cases relics before
         | dna? Would it happen again today?
        
           | pc86 wrote:
           | I think it depends on your definition of "failed." An eye
           | witness said it was him. He likely didn't have an alibi that
           | could have withstood an eye witness pointing at him and
           | saying "he did this." Had he been at a convenience store on
           | camera, or some other incontrovertible thing, it would have
           | most likely turned out differently.
           | 
           | I'm not sure how a reasonable judge or jury would have come
           | to any other conclusion given what little we know about this
           | third-person retelling of a case so I don't think they
           | "failed" him at least in the way I typically think of that
           | word being used in these contexts.
        
           | michaelt wrote:
           | For better or worse, a huge amount of our justice system
           | depends on eyewitness statements.
           | 
           | For example, if my crazy neighbour knocked on my door, pushed
           | their way into my home when I answered then beat me up - the
           | only evidence of who did it would be my eyewitness testimony.
           | 
           | There would be incontrovertible evidence that _someone_ had
           | assaulted me, in the form of my bruise-covered face and body.
           | But only eyewitness testimony as to _who_.
           | 
           | With the current justice system, that would almost certainly
           | be enough for a jury to convict.
           | 
           | There are tragic miscarriages of justice from time to time,
           | and certainly DNA evidence should be used whenever possible.
           | But would I prefer to live in a world which rejects
           | eyewitness testimony, where a crazy person can barge into my
           | house and beat me up with no consequences? Or a world where I
           | have to have CCTV in my own home? Not really to be honest.
        
             | graphe wrote:
             | The manpower involved could also be an issue, they can
             | gather dna and evidence but more likely it'll be ignored
             | over other cases.
             | 
             | For better or worst, we should accept that our justice
             | system has holes and flaws, and we should do our best to
             | avoid them. There isn't much to help you and they might not
             | have any suitable punishment or aid to give to the crazy
             | person.
        
             | hobotime wrote:
             | That wouldn't me just your verbal evidence there, as your
             | other neighbors would be able to collaborate that you
             | neighbor was crazy. There would be bruises on his knuckles.
             | His clothing would have your blood on them.
             | 
             | In cases of rape, where there's usually ample forensic
             | evidence, there need not be a complete reliance on
             | someone's testimony.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | There were the semen samples taken, but this was before
               | DNA matching.
        
           | jandrese wrote:
           | This sort of thing happens all the time. The Innocence
           | Project has a multi-year backlog. If you are a black man with
           | a public defender the prosecution almost doesn't even have to
           | show up to get a conviction. Death row is full of people who
           | were railroaded by the system.
        
             | graphe wrote:
             | Full of is misleading. If 1%-10% are innocent, 99-90% are
             | still guilty. 21 of the 375 men that were innocent were on
             | death row. https://innocenceproject.org/dna-exonerations-
             | in-the-united-...
             | 
             | Are these cases a relic before dna evidence?
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | That's just for this one project.
               | 
               | I'm not saying everyone is innocent, but the number of
               | people who were wrongly convicted by a lazy system that
               | let shoddy police work and lax standards become the norm
               | is shocking.
               | 
               | There's the old thought process that even if the guy
               | wasn't guilty of this crime he's certainly guilty of
               | others so they would be doing the world a favor by
               | putting him away. In the end this is just self-justified
               | racism.
        
               | graphe wrote:
               | >There's the old thought process that even if the guy
               | wasn't guilty of this crime he's certainly guilty of
               | others so they would be doing the world a favor by
               | putting him away. In the end this is just self-justified
               | racism.
               | 
               | I'm sorry, where is race the factor in this? You could
               | make a weak claim for sexism from your post but there is
               | no racism.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | Everyone acted in good faith - the lawyers, the judge, the
           | jury, the victim. The problem is a system that believes
           | eyewitness testimony is slam dunk evidence.
        
             | graphe wrote:
             | From your other comment it seems like this is a relic
             | before dna testing. I've heard there are many samples of
             | dna that have yet to be processed. Hopefully the
             | circumstances don't occur again.
        
         | P_I_Staker wrote:
         | Lots of times victims never will. There was a famous case of a
         | guy that just admits to random crimes and the victim refused to
         | believe it.
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | False suspect identification is historically one of the largest
         | reasons for false convictions. Courts, thankfully, are slowly
         | catching on to this and giving it lesser weight than they used
         | to.
        
       | bjornsing wrote:
       | A few years back there were some stories in a Swedish newspaper
       | about a method for medical age estimation of asylum seekers
       | developed by a government agency. I could hardly believe my eyes
       | when the person responsible for the accuracy of the method was
       | quoted as saying that it was very reliable, because it used two
       | unreliable methods to estimate if the person was above 18 years
       | old, and then concluded that they were 18+ if _either_ method so
       | indicated. You don't need to be a genius to realize your false
       | 18+ rate will be higher when combining two methods in this way
       | than it would be if you used a single method, but he argued the
       | opposite.
       | 
       | This caught my attention and I spent an inordinate amount of
       | time, together with a group of other concerned people, trying to
       | convince this government authority they were wrong, and later to
       | expose them for it / stop them from continuing. But it sadly
       | turned out to be next to impossible. They persisted with
       | inaccurate/false affidavits and court testimony for years, until
       | finally the minister of justice ordered a formal probe into the
       | method. They then patched it up as best they could without
       | exposing their previous errors, and pretended like nothing had
       | happened. The formal probe issued an interim report with pretty
       | harsh commentary, and was then cancelled by the minister of
       | justice before it could give its final report.
       | 
       | Forever changed my view of the Swedish justice system.
        
         | cpill wrote:
         | Mimics my impression of Sweden in general. It's not a nice
         | place of you are not Swedish.
        
           | bedobi wrote:
           | in this case it's the opposite - the policy allowed asylum
           | seekers to claim and benefit from being considered to be 18
           | or younger when they were in fact obviously 30+
           | 
           | but yeah your impression is not wrong, Sweden is not a nice
           | place lol
        
         | rossant wrote:
         | Pretty much the same thing happened in France:
         | https://www.cairn.info/revue-journal-du-droit-des-jeunes-200...
         | (in French)
         | 
         | Experts using scientifically unreliable methods to determine
         | that asylum seekers are 18+ and can therefore be expelled from
         | the French territory.
        
       | WaitWaitWha wrote:
       | This a bit misaligned, blame shifting. I will be the first to
       | admit there are unscrupulous, fame seeking, and overzealous
       | expert witnesses out there. But, there are mechanisms in the
       | courts to filter most of them out. I just think it is not done
       | for money, time, career, or political reasons.
       | 
       | I have seen this fail both in the adversarial (e.g., US) and
       | elsewhere in inquisitorial (e.g., EU) court systems.
       | 
       | In the adversarial courts, time and time again I watch lawyers
       | refuse to hire expert witnesses for their own side because
       | <insert hubris here>.
       | 
       | Overall, there is also the opportunity for a _voir dire_ of the
       | expert witness. Failure to perform that is again lawyers ' fault.
       | 
       | So, who is to blame for all the mistakes? Yes, all of them.
       | 
       | Final note regarding experts in court, specifically around
       | professional expert witnesses - there is a racket in the industry
       | where new-comers are kept out. The expert witness industry does
       | some gatekeeping not only for expertise, but for retiring law
       | enforcement in some jurisdictions. For example, in some US states
       | a digital forensics expert required to be a licensed Private
       | Investigator, unless former law enforcement. The PI licensing
       | requirement are completely irrelevant for the expert witness
       | role.
       | 
       | Personal anecdotal experience - Lawyer thinks he is
       | technologists, refuses to hire expert witness, begs expert to
       | come middle of the case. Lawyer hires cheapest expert, opposing
       | expert makes haggis out of cheapest expert.
       | 
       | Funniest one was where in a small court the State's expert start
       | going off on some cockamamie ideas about transference. The
       | opposing expert was an instructor and had one of her classes in
       | court to learn. The class burst out laughing, and the judge had
       | to gavel. When she got on the stance, it was just glorious,
       | torturous evisceration.
        
         | cool_dude85 wrote:
         | > time and time again I watch lawyers refuse to hire expert
         | witnesses for their own side because <insert hubris here>.
         | 
         | Because they are very expensive and most regular people don't
         | have money for them? Because public defenders have a few
         | minutes to look over a case and don't have time or resources to
         | bother with this level of care? Which of the two are caused by
         | hubris?
        
           | WaitWaitWha wrote:
           | This is not a binary situation.
           | 
           | I am writing that the choices made by lawyers are often for
           | hubris, not lack of resources. This is my anecdotal
           | experience, which is why I included qualifiers.
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | Most criminals can't afford expert witnesses. It is as simple
         | as that. The court is supposed to intervene and force the State
         | to pay for them, but it's such a nightmare it rarely happens.
         | 
         | I had an expert witness testify for the prosecution against me
         | and I thought he was fantastic, very fair and very
         | knowledgeable.
        
       | chaps wrote:
       | Very, very much yes. Criminal courts really, really aren't a good
       | place to address technical matters. For example, ankle electronic
       | monitoring (obviously) doesn't work well in faraday-cage like
       | apartment complexes. And yet time and time again, GPS skew is
       | used to argue that someone left their home -- sometimes even
       | months after the fact. I've read emails from a local sheriff's
       | office that said that they consider a sufficiently weak signal to
       | be a result of "foiling", period. Through FOIA though, I've been
       | able to get over 100 million instances where a GPS device didn't
       | have a strong enough signal. There are even criminal trials where
       | an EM company will send a sales person to testify and to claim
       | that they're not aware of any technical faults with the system.
       | 
       | https://thetriibe.com/2022/11/many-on-house-arrest-in-cook-c...
       | (disclaimer: I'm the author)
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | Also wrote the previous one which ended with me serving five
         | months in jail for retweeting the public defender's Tweet about
         | it (not your fault):
         | 
         | https://chicagoreader.com/news-politics/false-alarms/
         | 
         | This might have been the Tweet I reposted:
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/CookCoDefender/status/153970586223037644...
         | 
         | https://nitter.net/CookCoDefender/status/1539705862230376448
        
           | oooyay wrote:
           | Correct me if I'm off base here, but this seems to be
           | absolute nonsense:
           | 
           | > Like many on EM, Ross was never granted movement outside
           | his home even once, not even to buy food. His sister, a
           | manager at Securitas, helped when she could, but work got in
           | the way sometimes, he said.
           | 
           | So, they replaced the box you sit in with a box that you pay
           | for and provide no additional services with all the same
           | restrictions. What the fuck is the point of these programs? I
           | can understand wanting to use EM to ensure someone shows up
           | to a trial, but this geofencing stuff is absolute madness. It
           | just reintroduces the problem that made prisons and jails
           | problematic in the first place. If someone is a non-threat
           | enough to let them live in society with a bracelet then let
           | them live.
        
             | qingcharles wrote:
             | I wasn't allowed to leave for food.
             | 
             | The judge told me he would not grant my request to leave
             | for food. "Have you heard of Amazon? Order it online." he
             | said.
             | 
             | Then when I ordered it online he gave me five months in
             | jail saying he never gave me permission to use the Internet
             | :D
        
               | oooyay wrote:
               | > "Have you heard of Amazon? Order it online."
               | 
               | That's textbook entrapment given that collecting an
               | Amazon order, much less the occasionally misplaced one,
               | would require stepping outside of your apartment.
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | Yes. I once stepped onto my front step to let my dog out
               | and the police saw me and went bat-shit crazy about it.
               | They told me I needed to hire someone to come to my house
               | each day and open my front door to let my dog out.
        
               | treebeard901 wrote:
               | People in general do not seem to understand that the Govt
               | more and more is not sending people to prison. They are
               | bringing the prison to everyone instead.
               | 
               | That ankle bracelet works the same way as the smartphones
               | as far as location data. We all have ankle bracelets.
               | 
               | Our cities are concrete surveillance prisons...
               | 
               | It goes on and on and is another failure of the Justice
               | system.
               | 
               | I am dealing with a corrupt Judge as well so I know
               | frustrating it can be.
        
               | incahoots wrote:
               | I've gone through the system in a similar fashion, but
               | with no where near the same outcome as you did. If I
               | hadn't gone through a similar situation I would almost
               | believe that you were making it up, that's how ridiculous
               | this is.
               | 
               | For context I got stopped in a car with a friend who had
               | weed (unknown to me at the time), had a really old
               | warrant for something like a missed child support payment
               | (also didn't know), and we were both removed from the
               | car. Mind you, I was not driving, and the car did not
               | belong to me, I was simply a passenger. Cops claim they
               | have cause to search the car, I can't argue otherwise,
               | car gets searched, weed was found, we both get hit with
               | the charge.
               | 
               | I was expected to pay $6000 for possession, spent a week
               | in jail, lost my job, and had to travel 3 hours to the
               | court house to "appear" in front of a judge with no means
               | of getting there because every waking moment needed me to
               | find a job and save any money I had to pay upcoming rent
               | and needs, in addition to paying child support and not
               | missing a payment otherwise I would end up in jail.
               | 
               | That's how quickly this shit escalates, had I not found a
               | ride to get to the court house at least twice, I would've
               | been arrested for bail jumping, and lost my new job, and
               | my apartment.
               | 
               | Apologizes if I'm taking away from your experience, not
               | my intention. I feel like that if others don't come to
               | share similar stories, people are quick to dispel your
               | situation as a one off, and accuse of not being
               | responsible.
        
               | pc86 wrote:
               | Unfortunately, the common refrain in scenarios like this
               | is that it's your fault. Even ignoring the weed, which I
               | think a lot of people would have sympathy for, you owed
               | child support that wasn't paid and had a [bench,
               | presumably] warrant out for your arrest. The simple fact
               | of the matter is that most people don't owe court-
               | mandated child support at any point in their lives, most
               | people that _do_ owe it pay it, and most people don 't
               | ever have warrants out for their arrest.
               | 
               | I don't say this as any sort of moral or character
               | judgment, but simply to point out that part of the reason
               | this thing is allowed to happen is because the people
               | it's happening _to_ are very rarely sympathetic
               | individuals. They 're viewed as bad people and "others"
               | by the majority of the population.
               | 
               | So what's the fix for this? I wish I had an answer, but I
               | don't. Maybe teaching empathy so that the court system
               | starts feeling pressure from the citizens that this isn't
               | ok. Maybe legislation against charge stacking just to
               | elicit plea deals. There's also the very real possibility
               | of the pendulum swinging too far in the other direction
               | where DAs don't charge petty crime and people charged
               | with violent crimes are released on signature bonds.
        
               | chaps wrote:
               | "Teaching empathy" won't do a thing and'll just be mocked
               | and memed. We need to start at a lower fundamental.
               | 
               | An easy first step would be to increase accessibility to
               | court documents so that journalists and researchers have
               | better means of researching these complex problems. In
               | Illinois for example, the judicial branch is exempt from
               | FOIA. This effectively manifests itself as an informal
               | allowance of judges/prosecutors to get away with a lot of
               | systemic injustices. They get away with it because the
               | means of identifying these systemic problems is through
               | data and records that exist beyond a moat. One existing
               | alternative to FOIA here is the county clerk's in-person
               | system.. but the system times out on half of its
               | searches, is missing tons of docs, painfully slow, etc.
               | Another existing path is through a FOIA to the State's
               | Attorney's office, but they're notoriously slow and I'm
               | amongst the handful of others who are suing for non-
               | responsiveness. A lot of this is made worse by the
               | State's Attorney hashing person and case identifiers to
               | make it effectively impossible to understand how
               | someone's case progressed through the courts, starting
               | from the arrest.
        
               | k2enemy wrote:
               | I think you misread the parent. They didn't have an
               | outstanding warrant, the driver did.
        
               | pc86 wrote:
               | You're right! I'm sure many would still view this as an
               | "oh well, your own fault" type of thing though.
        
               | chaps wrote:
               | Do you?
        
               | incahoots wrote:
               | You're correct, the friend had the warranty out for child
               | support, I was in good standing paid up.
               | 
               | The fear was being jailed too long to respond to
               | potential employers so that I could continue to work.
               | Child support agencies are immediately notified if you've
               | been let go and will hound you on a daily basis to find
               | employment, there are no breaks.
               | 
               | Thankfully I'm in a much better position in life, but I
               | know what it's like if you don't have access to capital
               | to hire a good defense attorney who isn't behind the
               | 8-ball like public defenders always find themselves.
        
               | incahoots wrote:
               | Just for clarification I wasn't the one with the warrant,
               | nor behind in child support. Entirely my friend's
               | position, not mine.
               | 
               | I think it's important to point out that our justice
               | system is so overburdened with cases they have to take
               | deals, and that's just for the side of the system where
               | folks don't have access to capital to hire good
               | attorneys, they get stuck with the even more overburdened
               | public defenders, who don't eve have time to review any
               | of the details of the charge.
               | 
               | Then there's the other side that is well off and can
               | fight their charge with a great attorney, or a team of
               | lawyers, at which point the county/state decides it's not
               | worth the hassle to tie up their DA on this particular
               | case and they provide the defense with an agreeable plea
               | (usually a slap on the wrist to get it wrapped up quick),
               | then proceed with the next one.
               | 
               | As as most faculties in our society, the issue is and
               | always has been an issue of resources. The problem is
               | everything is paywalled to near obscurity, and we kick
               | the can further down the road.
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | No, you're not taking anything away. Your situation is
               | (sadly) very common indeed.
               | 
               | And as you say, if you start missing child support
               | payments the judge will hit you with contempt charges and
               | put you straight back in jail for several months to teach
               | you a lesson.
               | 
               | If you had ended up in jail the case might have run on
               | for months or years. Once you are inside a jail you lose
               | most contact with your attorney and your support system
               | and you have the lowest priority in the system, so your
               | case is usually just continued each month until the end
               | of time.
               | 
               | Find the wrong cops and you'll end up in jail for months
               | for having some vitamins on you:
               | 
               | https://archive.is/Blzbm
        
               | RetpolineDrama wrote:
               | >And as you say, if you start missing child support
               | payments the judge will hit you with contempt charges and
               | put you straight back in jail for several months to teach
               | you a lesson.
               | 
               | All of this should be illegal, debtors prisons by another
               | name is all this is.
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | And this why there should be mechanism to throw judges
               | and prosecutors for this sort of misconduct in prisons,
               | for sufficiently lengthy sentences. With inmates being
               | the peers they prosecuted.
        
             | chaps wrote:
             | It's very much a political issue over a practical issue.
             | The EM program has been around since the 80s, but the
             | pandemic caused its use to explode -- largely to reduce the
             | spread of COVID in/out of jails.
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | This. And now with States finally trying to produce a
               | fairer bond system (e.g. elimination of cash bail in
               | Illinois and other jurisdictions), the system is
               | expanding enormously.
        
           | chaps wrote:
           | Maybe not, but [without going into it on HN], we could have
           | done much more. For the texts article, we took a _much_ more
           | aggressive approach to pseudonyms to avoid something like
           | that happening again.
           | 
           | Hope you're doing well.
        
             | qingcharles wrote:
             | Yeah, lesson learned. I wasn't bitter about it. We both
             | knew what could happen and I accepted the risk. You were
             | doing absolutely the right thing. You did nothing wrong.
             | You saw the transcripts, the judge was a piece of shit all
             | the way to the end.
             | 
             | I'm doing good. Almost all the charges were dismissed a
             | couple of weeks ago. Last ones on appeal now. Hope
             | everything is good with you.
        
           | RetpolineDrama wrote:
           | >which ended with me serving five months in jail for
           | retweeting the public defender's Tweet about it
           | 
           | Um, what? You served 5 months in jail for a retweet? Care to
           | elaborate?
        
             | qingcharles wrote:
             | Yes. Here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38603663
             | 
             | Basically judge told me I was allowed to use the Internet
             | while on bail and joked with me that as long as I didn't
             | use it for anything illegal.
             | 
             | Then when I retweeted the article "chaps" above wrote about
             | EM not working etc, and I also tweeted about police
             | misconduct (I was getting arrested every single day), it
             | angered the local Sheriff's dept and they locked me up. The
             | judge then basically made the most strained argument in
             | history that he never gave me permission to use the
             | Internet and that I was a bad person for Tweeting about the
             | police under an assumed name (my Twitter account is also my
             | name??). "Chaps" did his level best to help my lawyer, and
             | we were 110% in the right, but the judge was days away from
             | retirement, so fuck me lol
        
               | RetpolineDrama wrote:
               | https://thecivilrightslawyer.com/about/
               | 
               | Send this guy your story, he might be able to help you
        
         | Buttons840 wrote:
         | Sounds like grounds for a lawsuit against the company. They are
         | stating false things about their product and causing people
         | harm.
         | 
         | An official and highly paid representative sent to testify in
         | court couldn't just be dismissed as "well, _one_ salesman
         | misspoke, not our fault ".
         | 
         | This would be the just recourse, but I'm aware that probably
         | nobody can afford this justice.
        
           | willy_k wrote:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38602914
        
           | soerxpso wrote:
           | Saying you're "not aware of" something that is real but that
           | you've managed to avoid awareness of, isn't illegal. The
           | individual representative sent to testify probably really was
           | unaware, and the company probably does a good job of making
           | itself as a whole mostly unaware. As long as all knowledge of
           | something routinely goes straight to the shredder before
           | anyone important hears about it, unawareness is achieved.
        
             | xkcd-sucks wrote:
             | Yeah but those kinds of games have been standard practice
             | in courts since time immemorial. Should it not be standard
             | practice by now to clearly establish the QA/QC process,
             | bugs opened and closed, roles and key people responsible
             | for product features etc. during court proceedings?
        
           | pdonis wrote:
           | The problem is not the company per se but the fact that the
           | government is allowed to get away with having an "expert
           | witness" testify in court with no supporting evidence about
           | something like this. The government should be required to
           | produce, and keep up to date, positive evidence about the
           | accuracy of such systems, collected independently of the
           | manufacturer.
        
             | chaps wrote:
             | You'd think so, right? At least when I was researching all
             | of this last year, absolutely no accuracy testing had been
             | done in Chicagoland.
        
             | Buttons840 wrote:
             | Can the defense have an "expert witness" refute the claims?
             | 
             | There's also the issue of jury selection. If a potential
             | juror seems like they might question faulty statistics, for
             | example, and the prosecutors know they will be presenting
             | some statistics, that juror wont be selected.
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | _> Can the defense have an  "expert witness" refute the
               | claims?_
               | 
               | Yes, but the defense witness can make unsupported claims
               | in the opposite direction. Neither "expert witness" is
               | required to actually support their testimony.
               | 
               |  _> There 's also the issue of jury selection._
               | 
               | Yes, definitely. Someone else upthread mentioned that
               | too.
        
       | rightbyte wrote:
       | It wouldn't surprise me if computer forsensics is about as bad
       | science as bullet forsensics.
       | 
       | Ever since I had a porn virus hosting kinda lame porn videos over
       | BitTorrent like 20 years ago, I thought about exactly how
       | computer forsensics prove intent in child sexual abuse material
       | cases.
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | I don't know. I've spoken to FBI computer forensics guys and
         | their computer knowledge was up there with mine in terms of
         | hardware, software, OS etc. I've been very, very impressed with
         | them.
         | 
         | The problems come when they pass their data to the prosecution
         | and defense who are not computer trained and it all goes sour
         | from there on.
        
           | rightbyte wrote:
           | Ok nice to hear.
        
         | conductr wrote:
         | Recently a teacher at my son's school was found to be part of a
         | child porn ring. His mug shot was posted alongside a couple
         | dozen others and initial impression was it was organized crime
         | pedaling this stuff. Perception was he's guilty; lock him up.
         | 
         | The immediate response was he was fired, arrested, etc. There
         | were no facts or investigation but the school was in
         | communication with us and getting info from LEO as the
         | investigation began. We pretty quickly found that no kids were
         | involved (sigh of relief). Then found out it was a part of a
         | FBI sting and he was actually a lone actor not involved in any
         | type of organized 'ring' (wait, what?). Then about a month
         | after initial arrest, we found out he watched on his computer
         | (streamed or tracked from an FBI server) approximately 3
         | videos. Unknown duration, unknown intent, unknown everything
         | else. But, having seen the 'legit' side of the adult industry
         | and how those websites work, I'm totally of the opinion he
         | probably landed on a website and those videos 1) autoplayed 2)
         | did not indicate or appear as containing underage people 3) or
         | he clicked them and hit back once he realized the 'actors'
         | appeared a little too young looking.
         | 
         | The FBI sting also caught some terrible people and this
         | teacher's mug shot in that press release basically made him
         | guilty by association (that didn't exist). I don't know if this
         | teacher did anything intentionally illegal, but in my opinion
         | the facts that eventually came to be did not substantiate the
         | initial response from law enforcement - which has ruined this
         | man's career and ostracized him from our community (at
         | minimum); he's still fighting to reduce charges so it's likely
         | bankrupted him too. Also, If you search his name today, you'll
         | see that press release and mugshot as top result.
         | 
         | I know I've seen some adult content on 'legit' websites that I
         | feel was questionable on age, no way to know for sure, but I
         | didn't realize it until I viewed it and I just moved on with my
         | browsing. It's scary to thing visiting any website could give
         | the FBI enough data to come down this hard on someone.
        
       | trident5000 wrote:
       | Deliberately hiding evidence should should equate to hefty prison
       | time for a prosecutor.
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | In known history, I think there has been perhaps one prosecutor
         | charged with a crime over this. How about that for a statistic?
         | 
         | From my experience it is literally impossible to report a crime
         | made by a prosecutor.
         | 
         | Hiding evidence might not even be a crime in many
         | jurisdictions. In the USA it would be a constitutional
         | violation, but that rarely makes it a crime because violating
         | the constitution rarely becomes criminal unless violence is
         | involved.
        
       | dn3500 wrote:
       | My father was called for jury duty a few years ago. The case
       | depended on some physics, something about the angles and momentum
       | in a car crash. My father was disqualified, because he's a
       | physics teacher and may have been tempted to interpret the
       | physics expert's testimony instead of blindly accepting it.
        
         | cbsmith wrote:
         | Yup. I don't think the problem is the jury, or even the
         | experts. There's a fundamental problem with how the courts use
         | expert testimony to ensure fair justice. I believe the idea is
         | that to ensure fairness, verdicts should not be determined by
         | variances in expertise amongst the jury. I recall being
         | specifically instructed that I was NOT to question the expert
         | testimony based on any prior expertise I might have. It solves
         | one problem, and creates a ton of others.
        
         | eli wrote:
         | Jurors aren't expected to blindly accept expert testimony.
         | Normal jury instructions are exactly the opposite: that jurors
         | should treat it just like any other testimony and make their
         | own decision on how trustworthy it is.
         | 
         | I think the concern is more that they don't want a self-
         | appointed expert on the jury having too much sway over the
         | other jurors.
        
         | rossant wrote:
         | When my son was diagnosed with shaken baby syndrome [1], I
         | investigated the science of this diagnosis and found out
         | horrifying mistakes in French diagnosis guidelines, especially
         | in physics-based arguments. These guidelines were written by
         | medical doctors who did not seem to have the slightest
         | understanding of basic physics, resulting in gross unit
         | conversion errors, absurd comparisons, contradictory
         | reasonings, and so on [2]. These flawed arguments led to flawed
         | conclusions regarding differential diagnoses of pediatric head
         | injuries, resulting in hundreds of erroneous medical diagnoses
         | and allegations of abuse in the country.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.cambridgeblog.org/2023/05/a-journey-into-the-
         | sha...
         | 
         | [2] see e.g. https://adikia.fr/2018/05/biomecanique-des-chutes/
         | (in French)
        
       | lowbloodsugar wrote:
       | innocent _poor_ people.
        
       | ubiquitysc wrote:
       | Here's a worthwhile read on the subject:
       | https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/33296669-the-cadaver-kin...
        
       | eli wrote:
       | I was a juror on a criminal trial once and there was a ballistics
       | expert who testified that he was "100% certain" that the markings
       | on a shell casing came from a certain gun. This is based on a
       | visual inspection under a microscope.
       | 
       | I googled it after the trial and sure enough when you put this
       | sort of thing to the test, experts are not correct 100% of the
       | time.
        
       | load81 wrote:
       | COVID enters the chat...
        
       | rossant wrote:
       | The author could have also mentioned the controversial diagnosis
       | of shaken baby syndrome/abusive head trauma which has long relied
       | on bad science, resulting in wrongful convictions:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37650402
        
       | rossant wrote:
       | Mathematicians Leila Schneps and Coralie Colmez have written an
       | entire book on this very issue of bad statistics causing
       | miscarriages of justice: https://www.amazon.com/Math-Trial-
       | Numbers-Abused-Courtroom/d...
        
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