[HN Gopher] Sorry, but a new prompt for GPT-4 is not a paper
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Sorry, but a new prompt for GPT-4 is not a paper
        
       Author : georgehill
       Score  : 246 points
       Date   : 2023-12-05 13:06 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (twitter.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (twitter.com)
        
       | siva7 wrote:
       | Reminds me of what a real programmer is:
       | https://sac.edu/AcademicProgs/Business/ComputerScience/Pages...
        
       | henriquez wrote:
       | Real science is reserved for those with real expertise! As the
       | self-anointed gatekeeper of real science I decree that other
       | peoples' work fails to meet the minimum standard I have set for
       | real science! Mind you not the work other actors in the
       | scientific community publish and accept among their peers - they
       | are not real scientists and their work is trivial. For shame!
        
         | mmkos wrote:
         | Strongly disagree. I do think trivial work is not paper-worthy
         | and it would be more beneficial not to publish such work, as it
         | mostly a waste of time for the peer reviewing it and the
         | readers who will gain nothing from reading it. It's no lie that
         | most publish for the sake of publishing and this post just
         | calls it out for what it is.
        
           | henriquez wrote:
           | Trivial means different things to different people. I'm not
           | really a fan of LLM hype but it seems to me a valid practice
           | of scientific discovery to evaluate the use and optimization
           | of such models.
        
         | brookst wrote:
         | The real shame is that even HN has fallen into the trap of
         | missing obvious and funny sarcasm unless it is clearly labeled.
        
           | KyleBerezin wrote:
           | Sarcasm is often spoken with a sarcastic inflection. It
           | doesn't translate well to text, regardless of the community.
        
       | 3cats-in-a-coat wrote:
       | Attacking the participants in a systemic shift is 100% useless as
       | it doesn't target the culprit.
       | 
       | In programming we have a similar phenomenon, that StackOverflow-
       | driven (and I guess now GPT-driven) juniors have overtaken the
       | industry and displaced serious talent. Because sufficient amounts
       | of quantity always beats quality, even if the end result is
       | inferior, this is caused by market dynamics, which operate on
       | much cruder parameters than the sophisticated analysis of an
       | individual noticing everything around them becoming
       | "enshittified".
       | 
       | SO-driven juniors are cheap, plentiful, and easily replaceable.
       | And a business that values less expense and less risk therefore
       | prefers them, because it has no way to measure the quality of the
       | final product with simple metrics.
       | 
       | The same mechanism is driving AI replacing our jobs currently,
       | the avalanche of garbage papers by academics. This is entropy for
       | you. We see it everywhere in modern society down to the food we
       | eat. Quality goes away, replaced by cheap to produce and long
       | shelf life.
       | 
       | If we don't fundamentally alter what the system sees as
       | ACCEPTABLE, and VALUABLE, this process will inevitably continue
       | until our world is completely unrecognizable. And to
       | fundamentally alter the system, we need an impulse that aligns us
       | as a society, startles us into action, all together (or at least
       | significant majority of us). But it seems we're currently in
       | "slowly boiled frog mode".
        
         | ilc wrote:
         | This whole thing reminds me a bit of playing Fallout 4.
         | 
         | There will be good data, the pre-AI enshitification data. The
         | stuff from before the war.
         | 
         | And then... the data after. Tainted by the entropy, and lack of
         | utility of AI.
         | 
         | Alas, this means in some senses, human progress will slow and
         | stop in the tech field if we aren't careful and preserve ways
         | to create pre-AI data. But the cost of it is so high in
         | comparison to post... I'm not sold it will be worth it.
        
           | jhbadger wrote:
           | This paints a rosy picture of human-generated data now. It's
           | not as if most human data is reliable. Even among peer
           | reviewed scientific literature, most of it is crap and it
           | takes effort to find the good stuff. Also, your analogy kind
           | of misses the point of the Fallout games. The pre-war world
           | was awful, filled with evil corporations like Vault-tech and
           | Nuka Cola that murdered and poisoned their customers, and the
           | point of the games is that people need to move on and not
           | idealize the past.
        
             | ilc wrote:
             | There is a reason I didn't draw a hard parallel.
             | 
             | I use AI day to day. I see what it can do and can't.
             | 
             | But when you see pages, and pages, and pages of GPT spam
             | all over the place. Finding the nuggets of wisdom will be
             | much harder than before, the "bomb" was dropped.
             | 
             | Thus actually leading to the whole FO4 main plot.
             | 
             | Yes, life will always find a way. And yes humanity can not
             | put the genie in a bottle, we are much more likely to put
             | it on a Fat Man catapult.
             | 
             | But it means, that in a sense... that we will all have to
             | accept this background radiation of AI shit, as part of our
             | new norm.
             | 
             | And this isn't the first time I've thought in similar ways.
             | I remember reading older math texts (way pre-computer works
             | in things like diffeq and PDE) and often thinking the
             | explanations were clearer. Probably because of the
             | increased effort to actually print something.
             | 
             | Who knows... maybe I'm just an old coot seeing patterns
             | where there are none.
        
               | somenameforme wrote:
               | > "I remember reading older math texts (way pre-computer
               | works in things like diffeq and PDE) and often thinking
               | the explanations were clearer."
               | 
               | This is 100% the case in chess as well. The books before
               | and after the computer era are orders of magnitude
               | different in terms of readability. I think a major shift
               | in society has been in motivation. In the past if you
               | were studying advanced mathematics, let alone writing
               | about it, it was solely and exclusively because you
               | absolutely loved the field. And you were also probably
               | several sigmas outside the mean intellectually. Now? It's
               | most often because of some vague direction such as
               | wanting a decent paying job, which may through the twists
               | and turns of fate eventually see you writing books in a
               | subject you don't particularly have much enthusiasm for.
               | 
               | And the much more crowded 'intellectual market',
               | alongside various image crafting or signaling
               | motivations, also creates a really perverse incentive.
               | Exceptional competence and understanding within a subject
               | makes it easy to explain things, even the esoteric and
               | fabulously complex. See: Richard Feynman. But in modern
               | times there often seems to be a desire to go the other
               | direction - and make things sound utterly complex, even
               | when they aren't. I think Einstein's paper on special
               | relativity vs many (most?) modern papers is a good
               | example. Einstein's writing was such that anybody with a
               | basic education could clearly understand the paper, even
               | if they might not fully follow the math. By contrast, so
               | many modern papers seem to be written as if the author
               | had a well worn copy of the Thesaurus of
               | Incomprehensibility at his bedside table.
        
         | ableal wrote:
         | > Because sufficient amounts of quantity always beats quality
         | 
         | Hegel (as echoed by Marx): "merely quantitative differences
         | beyond a certain point pass into qualitative changes" (
         | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.240462397 )
         | 
         | I always found that an interesting observation, whatever you
         | think of the rest of their works.
        
           | Der_Einzige wrote:
           | Hegel is a hack and doesn't deserve to be cited here.
           | Consider that he's really only famous because his class
           | motivated a bunch of other philosophers (the young
           | Hegelian's, Marx, Stirner, Bruno Bauer et al) to meet in wine
           | bars after class to complain about how terrible/impossible to
           | understand his philosophy is.
           | 
           | Anyone whose even tried to read stuff of his I.e the
           | phenomenology of spirit will tell you that he's a charlatan
           | and hack, and the people who constantly cite him (I.e Zizek,
           | Lacan, Foucault) are also hacks.
        
           | 3cats-in-a-coat wrote:
           | It's an absolutely valid observation and I cite it often. We
           | need to learn as a society how to separate things and think
           | less wholesale.
           | 
           | The best people have silly beliefs, the worst people have
           | great insights, and the vast majority of us are in-between.
           | 
           | If we discard everything "tainted" by imperfection, we'll be
           | left with nothing good.
        
       | karxxm wrote:
       | It depends I guess.
       | 
       | If you solve a problem that had been around for a while and LLMs
       | offer a new way of approaching it, then it can definitely become
       | a paper.
       | 
       | Of cause one has to verify in sophisticated experiments, that
       | this approach is stable.
        
       | H8crilA wrote:
       | If you do enough measurements on that new prompt then I don't see
       | why this shouldn't be a paper. People overestimate the value of
       | "grand developments", and underestimate the value of actually
       | knowing - in this case actually knowing how well something works,
       | even if it is as simple as a prompt.
       | 
       | Compare with drug trials: Adderall only differs from regular
       | amphetamine in the relative concentration of enantiomers, and the
       | entire value of the drug is in the measurements.
        
         | aleph_minus_one wrote:
         | > People overestimate the value of "grand developments", and
         | underestimate the value of actually knowing - in this case
         | actually knowing how well something works, even if it is as
         | simple as a prompt.
         | 
         | I think this depends a lot on the "culture" of the subject
         | area. For example in mathematics, it is common that only new
         | results that have been thoroughly worked through are typically
         | "publish-worthy".
        
           | brookst wrote:
           | Wouldn't the "thoroughly worked through" part be analogous to
           | extensive measurements of a prompt?
        
             | aleph_minus_one wrote:
             | Let me put it this way: you can expect that a typical good
             | math paper means working on the problem for, I would say,
             | half a year (often much longer). I have a feeling that most
             | papers that involve extensive measurements of prompts do
             | _not_ involve 1 /2 to 1 year of careful
             | 
             | - hypothesis building
             | 
             | - experimental design
             | 
             | - doing experiments
             | 
             | - analyzing the experimental results
             | 
             | - doing new experiments
             | 
             | - analyzing in which sense the collected data support the
             | hypothesis or not
             | 
             | - ...
             | 
             | work.
        
         | starbugs wrote:
         | > Compare with drug trials: Adderall only differs from regular
         | amphetamine in the relative concentration of enantiomers, and
         | the entire value of the drug is in the measurements.
         | 
         | Drug trials may be expected to be somewhat reproducible.
         | 
         | What I don't get is how it can even be called research if it
         | cannot be expected to be reproducible at all!
         | 
         | GPT is a closed source/weights, proprietary product that
         | changes every couple of weeks or so. How can you expect a
         | prompt to do the same for a reasonable length of time for the
         | research to be even rudimentarily reproducible? And if it's not
         | reproducible, what is it actually worth? I don't think much.
         | Could as well have been a fault in the research setup or a
         | fake.
        
           | IanCal wrote:
           | > GPT is a closed source/weights, proprietary product that
           | changes every couple of weeks or so.
           | 
           | Do you have any evidence that the weights for versioned
           | models are being changed without notifications?
        
             | starbugs wrote:
             | > Do you have any evidence that the weights for versioned
             | models are being changed without notifications?
             | 
             | I think in a real scientific process, it's upon those who
             | claim that they are not to provide the evidence.
        
               | IanCal wrote:
               | I'm sorry, but that's entirely ridiculous. You're
               | mangling up a concept of burden of proof here.
               | 
               | You can easily see this because it can be flipped around
               | easily - you made a claim that they _are_ being changed,
               | even every few weeks! Should it really be on _me_ to show
               | that _your_ very specific claim is false?
               | 
               | Aside - but even if the model weights _did_ change, that
               | wouldn 't stop research being possible. Otherwise no drug
               | trial could be replicated because you couldn't get the
               | exact same participants at the exact same age.
        
               | dartos wrote:
               | Apples and oranges comparison.
               | 
               | You couldn't get the same participants, but you could get
               | the same drugs. If you could get identical participants,
               | that wouldn't be very helpful since humans are so varied.
               | 
               | But for GPT based papers, what you're actually testing
               | could change without you knowing. There's no way to know
               | if a paper is reproducible at all.
               | 
               | If you can't reproduce results, is it really research, or
               | just show and tell?
        
               | IanCal wrote:
               | > If you can't reproduce results, is it really research,
               | or just show and tell?
               | 
               | You can't start with a statement about clinical trials
               | not being perfectly reproducible and that's fine, then
               | say this.
               | 
               | > what you're actually testing could change without you
               | knowing
               | 
               | If people are lying about an extremely important part of
               | their product, which they have little reason to. But then
               | this applies to pretty much everything. Starting with the
               | assumption that people are lying about everything and
               | nothing is as it seems may technically make things more
               | reproducible but it's going to require unbelievable
               | effort for very little return.
               | 
               | > There's no way to know if a paper is reproducible at
               | all.
               | 
               | This is a little silly because these models are available
               | extremely easily and at a pay-as-you-go pricing. And
               | again, it requires an assumption that openai is lying
               | about a specific feature of a product.
        
               | starbugs wrote:
               | > You can easily see this because it can be flipped
               | around easily - you made a claim that they are being
               | changed, even every few weeks! Should it really be on me
               | to show that your very specific claim is false?
               | 
               | Wait a minute? The author of such a paper makes a claim
               | about some observation that's based on the assumption
               | that the studied model is defined in a way. I am
               | disputing that claim since no evidence has been shown
               | that it is defined because no definition has been given.
               | 
               | If your twist on this issue would be true, then I would,
               | by definition, have to accept everything that they claim
               | as true without any evidence. That's not called science.
               | That's called authority.
        
               | IanCal wrote:
               | > I am disputing that claim
               | 
               | You are entirely within your rights to say that the
               | authors have assumed that openai is not lying about their
               | models. They've probably also assumed that other paper
               | authors are not lying in their papers.
               | 
               | You then say however:
               | 
               | > GPT is a closed source/weights, proprietary product
               | that changes every couple of weeks or so.
               | 
               | And when I ask for evidence of this very specific claim,
               | you turn around and say the burden is on me to show that
               | you're lying. _That_ is what is butchering the concept of
               | burden of proof.
               | 
               | > If your twist on this issue would be true, then I
               | would, by definition, have to accept everything that they
               | claim as true without any evidence.
               | 
               | Absolutely not.
        
           | awestroke wrote:
           | You can select a static snapshot that presumably does not
           | change, if you use the API
        
             | starbugs wrote:
             | > You can select a static snapshot that presumably does not
             | change, if you use the API
             | 
             | Sorry, I won't blindly believe a company who are cynical
             | enough to call themselves "OpenAI", then publish a
             | commercial closed source/weights model for profit.
             | 
             | Evidence that they do not change without notice or it
             | didn't happen. Better even, provide the source and weights
             | for research purposes. These models could be pulled at
             | every instant if the company sees fit or ceases to exist.
        
               | cqqxo4zV46cp wrote:
               | Yeah, here it comes. In these conversations you don't
               | need to ask very many "why"s before it just turns out
               | that the antagonist (you) has an axe to grind about
               | OpenAI, and has added that the their misplaced sense of
               | expertise with regard to the typical standards of proof
               | in academic publications.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Is that a contractual guarantee, or more of a "trust us"
             | kind of thing?
        
           | sebzim4500 wrote:
           | If I book telescope time and capture a supernova then no one
           | will ever be able to reproduce my raw results because it has
           | already happened. I don't see why OpenAI pulling old model
           | snapshots is any different.
        
             | starbugs wrote:
             | > If I book telescope time and capture a supernova then no
             | one will ever be able to reproduce my raw results because
             | it has already happened. I don't see why OpenAI pulling old
             | model snapshots is any different.
             | 
             | That's why you capture multiple of them and verify your
             | data statistically?
        
               | sebzim4500 wrote:
               | And ideally if someone is proposing new prompting
               | techniques they should test it across both the most
               | capable models (which are unfortunately proprietary) and
               | the best open models.
               | 
               | The problem is that what works on small LLMs does not
               | necessarily scale to larger ones. See page 35 of [1] for
               | example. A researcher only using the models of a few
               | years ago (where the open models had <1B parameters)
               | could come to a completely incorrect conclusion: that
               | language models are incapable of generalising facts
               | learned in one language to another.
               | 
               | [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.03296.pdf
        
             | arter wrote:
             | Not always but we can reproduce your findings in the future
             | - credit to gravitational lensing causing some light paths
             | to years longer to reach us.
        
             | doctorpangloss wrote:
             | While this is very interesting, there are enough
             | differences between astronomy and whatever papers this
             | Twitter user is talking about that it's not the insight
             | porn you think it is.
             | 
             | The Twitter user doesn't even reference a single specific
             | paper, kind of doing some hand wavy broad generalizations
             | of his worst antagonists. So who really knows what he's
             | talking about? I can't say.
             | 
             | If he means papers like the ones in this search - https://a
             | rxiv.org/search/?query=step+by+step+gpt4&searchtype... -
             | they're all kind of interesting, especially
             | https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.06834 which is the kind of "new
             | prompt" class he's directly attacking. It is interesting
             | because it was written by some doctors, and it's about
             | medicine, so it has some interdisciplinary stuff that's
             | more interesting than the computer science stuff. So I
             | don't even agree with the premise of what the Twitter
             | complainer is maybe complaining about, because he doesn't
             | name a specific paper.
             | 
             | Anyway, to your original point, if we're comparing the
             | research I linked and astronomy... well, they're completely
             | different, it is totally intellectually dishonest to
             | compare the two. Like tell me how I use astronomy research
             | later in product development or whatever? Maybe in building
             | telescopes? How does observing the supernova suggest new
             | telescopes to build in the future, without suggesting that
             | indeed, I will be reproducing the results, because I am
             | building a new telescope to observe another such supernova?
             | Astronomy cares very deeply about reproducibility, a
             | different kind of reproducibility than these papers, but
             | maybe more the same in interesting ways than the non-
             | difference you're talking about. I'm not an astronomer, but
             | if you want to play the insight porn game, I'd give these
             | people a benefit of the doubt.
        
         | VoodooJuJu wrote:
         | There's a great lesson here for marketers: the prospect can be
         | convinced with the simple presence of graphs and data and
         | measurements.
         | 
         | Even just the mere presence of data and data visuals is enough
         | to legitimize what you're selling in the eyes of the prospect.
         | When the prevailing religion is Scientism, data bestows that
         | blessing of authority and legitimacy upon whatever it is you're
         | trying to sell. Show and tell whatever conclusions you'd like
         | from the data - the soundness of the logic supporting that
         | conclusion is irrelevant. All that matters is you did the
         | ritual of measuring and data-gathering and graph-ifying and
         | putting it on display for the prospect.
         | 
         | There's a great book, _How to Lie with Statistics_ , that
         | covers this particular case, but demonstrates other popular
         | ways in which data and data visuals are manipulated to sell
         | things.
        
           | kridsdale1 wrote:
           | Having worked at famously data driven Meta and Google, this
           | is 100% accurate.
           | 
           | You can turbo boost your career by mastering the art of "data
           | ritual". It doesn't matter what the results are or magnitude
           | of impact or what it cost to build and launch something. Show
           | your results in a pretty way that looks like you did your
           | diligence and you will be celebrated.
        
         | nathanfig wrote:
         | Agreed. People publish papers on algorithms all the time,
         | imagine saying "Sorry, but new C++ is not a paper". There is a
         | ton of space to be explored wrt prompts.
         | 
         | If you do the rigor on why something really is interesting,
         | publish it.
        
         | oasisbob wrote:
         | > and the entire value of the drug is in the measurements.
         | 
         | I'm not sure this is true.
         | 
         | While modern Adderall has a closely controlled mixture of
         | multiple enantiomers, it hasn't always been this way.
         | 
         | Medicine historically didn't care nearly as much about racemic
         | mixtures, and the possibility of stereo toxicity (eg
         | Thalidomide).
         | 
         | Many drugs in modern human history, including mixed amphetamine
         | salts, have been marketed with very little concern for racemic
         | purity.
        
       | Kelkonosemmel wrote:
       | How to add prompt knowledge into research? By having papers about
       | it.
       | 
       | Shouldn't be the tooling around it good enough that a few prompt
       | papers don't overload the system?
        
       | alickz wrote:
       | Still beats most psychology papers
        
         | margorczynski wrote:
         | Tbh in both they are mostly alchemy with some more or less
         | expert lingo put in to make it sound more scientific.
         | 
         | AI/ML resembles more alchemy than e.g. physics, putting stuff
         | into a pot and seeing what comes out. A lot of the math in
         | those papers doesn't provide anything but some truisms, most of
         | it is throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks.
        
       | selfhoster11 wrote:
       | Excuse me? Step by step wasn't paper-worthy? Hard disagree.
       | 
       | LLM research is currently in its infancy, because they are no
       | older than a few years old. And a research field in its infancy
       | is bound to have a few noteworthy "no sh*t, Sherlock" papers that
       | would be obvious from hindsight.
       | 
       | The fact is, LLMs are a higher-order construct in machine
       | learning, much like a fish is higher-order than a simple cellular
       | colony. Lower-order ML constructs do not demonstrate emergent
       | capabilities like step by step, stream of consciousness thinking,
       | and so on.
       | 
       | Academics should be less jaded and approach the field with
       | beginner's eyes. Because we are all beginners here.
        
         | Der_Einzige wrote:
         | NLP/Computational Lingustics is NOT a new field. The ACL was
         | founded in 1962
         | 
         | LM research is also old, papers using very shitty LMs (I.e
         | Markov chains) and discussing them have existed since the early
         | 2000s and likely before.
         | 
         | Check yourself before you try to check others.
        
           | Retr0id wrote:
           | Try asking a markov chain to think step by step
        
             | tovej wrote:
             | By definition a Markov chain does everything step by step
             | already, no need to ask!
        
               | Retr0id wrote:
               | By that logic, so does a GPT
        
           | idiliv wrote:
           | Parent post is talking about LLMs, i.e. Large LMs. Research
           | on LLMs is indeed in its infancy.
        
         | phkahler wrote:
         | >> LLM research is currently in its infancy
         | 
         | Everything that went in to creating GPT4 is AI/science or
         | whatever. Probing GPT4 and trying to understand and
         | characterize it is also a very worthy thing to do - else how
         | can it be improved upon? But if making GPT is science, I'd say
         | this stuff is more akin to psychology ;-)
        
           | dr_dshiv wrote:
           | Machine psychology
        
             | jjordan wrote:
             | 2080 graduates of Machine Psychology will look back on this
             | post and smile.
        
             | jimbokun wrote:
             | Asimov was way ahead of you:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robopsychology
        
             | dr_dshiv wrote:
             | It's a real thing: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.13988
        
           | dartos wrote:
           | What is psychology, but applied biology?
           | 
           | https://xkcd.com/435/
        
             | eimrine wrote:
             | Psychology is a religious-like pseudoscience, they can not
             | even define what "psy" is without using some conceptions
             | from religions such as a soul.
             | 
             |  _upd_ these statements from me are so controversial, the
             | number of  "points" just dances lambada. The psy* areas are
             | clearly polarized: some guys upvote all my messages in this
             | topic and some other ones downvote all my messages in this
             | topic. This is a sign of something interesting but I am not
             | ready to elaborate on this statement in this comment which
             | is going to become [flagged] eventually.
        
               | Woshiwuja wrote:
               | What? Are you literally referring to ancient greek psy?
               | jesus...
        
               | eimrine wrote:
               | What is incorrect in this reference? You have not
               | proposed any counterarguments. Also if you need just more
               | fresh data - how do you propose to interpret the result
               | of the Rosenhan's experiment?
        
               | wavemode wrote:
               | That lying about your symptoms to doctors leads to
               | incorrect diagnoses?
        
               | eimrine wrote:
               | They are _not_ doctors in terms of evidence-based
               | medicine, just policemen without a token. The problem is
               | obviously not about incorrect diagnosis, I can lie to any
               | doctor about any symptoms and just go home with zero
               | obstructions from feds.
        
               | nick222226 wrote:
               | As someone who was formerly in a mental ward for acute
               | crisis, I would say that at least the 72 hour hold was an
               | essential and necessary part of my treatment. I don't
               | think that staying at home with unprepared family members
               | for the acute period would have worked out, and I don't
               | even have a problematic home environment!
               | 
               | The flip side of the coin is that I was in a really high
               | quality hospital, I'm sure there are hospitals or
               | facilities that can be more harmful rather than helpful.
               | 
               | I also have a problem with the way that they treat mental
               | health like cancer, that once you have a diagnosis you
               | will always have it. There are zero diagnostic criteria
               | for "fully recovered" or removing dependence on
               | medication, even after 5 or 10 years. It's also treated
               | like a scarlet letter for insurance and unrelated things
               | like TSA pre check - no matter how well you are doing you
               | are still some level of risk to yourself and society.
               | Though I could be wrong... the reoccurrence chart over
               | time for my specific acute mania (with no depressive
               | episodes) does look a lot like cancer remission charts
               | with asymptotic approach to 80%+ reoccurrence after 2-4
               | years.
        
               | Woshiwuja wrote:
               | Dont put people inside mental asylums when they are not
               | ill?
        
               | eimrine wrote:
               | There is no evidence of existing at least one defined
               | illness in psy* fields. For example, let me tell you that
               | a person X fell ill with schizophrenia. What do you know
               | about X or X's brain?
        
               | oasisbob wrote:
               | Most psychologists would be much more interested in
               | person X's behavior, rather than their brain.
        
               | eimrine wrote:
               | And believe in such false statement as a free will?
               | 
               | So what is a part of organism (if not brain) which might
               | be possible for psy* specialist to heal, is it an arm or
               | a leg or a spine?
        
               | beepbooptheory wrote:
               | Dude if you think phusis is free of its own philosophical
               | baggage I got a bridge to sell you.
        
               | eimrine wrote:
               | > its own philosophical baggage
               | 
               | Could you elaborate on this statement?
        
               | beepbooptheory wrote:
               | If your contention is just something like "the root psy-
               | comes out of mystical/spiritual conceptions in Ancient
               | Greece, and that speaks to the bunk/ungrounded
               | conceptions of modern psychology," then I would ask why
               | the same critique is not levied against the ancient Greek
               | conception of "nature" and the "natural" from which we
               | get the word "physics".
               | 
               | You might retort here "ah well, 'nature' is just the word
               | we use when we speak of observable phenomena in the hard
               | sciences, its not muddied by religion like that crock
               | stuff _psychology_. "
               | 
               | And then I would say, "ok, if 'nature' is _just_
               | observable phenomena, what is the aim or purpose of the
               | hard sciences? If it is all just observing /experimenting
               | on discrete phenomena, there would be nothing we could
               | _do_ or _conclude_ from the rigor of physics. "
               | 
               | You laugh at my insanity (well, if you believed in such a
               | thing): "But we _do_ conclude things from physics,
               | because experiments are reproducible, and with their
               | reproducibility we can gain confidence in generalizing
               | the laws of our universe. "
               | 
               | And yes! You would be correct here. But now all the
               | sudden you have committed physics to something just as
               | fundamentally "spiritual" as the soul: that the universe
               | is sensible, rational, and "with laws." Which is indeed
               | just speaking the very same mystical "nature" of ancient
               | Greece from which we get _phys-_.
               | 
               | But this need not be some damning critique of physics
               | itself (like psychology), and rather, can lead to a
               | higher level understanding of all scientific pursuits:
               | that we are everywhere cursed by a fundamental
               | incompleteness, that in order even to enter into
               | scientific pursuit we must shed an absolute skepticism
               | for a qualified one. Because this is the only way we
               | accumulate a network of reinforced hypotheses and
               | conceptions, which do indeed help us navigate the purely
               | phenomenal world we are bound in.
        
               | phkahler wrote:
               | >> This is a sign of something interesting
               | 
               | Yeah, you might understand it if you study psychology or
               | perhaps sociology.
        
               | fkyoureadthedoc wrote:
               | > This is a sign of something interesting but I am not
               | ready to elaborate on this statement in this comment
               | which is going to become [flagged] eventually.
               | 
               | Yet you're being a reply guy all over this thread, might
               | as well just elaborate you clearly have the time and
               | interest
        
               | eimrine wrote:
               | Psy* pseudoscience is among a few hills I am gladly die
               | for. Also free/libre software, Lisp and cryptocurrency
               | with no premine.
        
           | jejeyyy77 wrote:
           | you realize nobody understands WHY or HOW these models work
           | under the hood right?
           | 
           | it's akin to evolution - we understand the process - that
           | part is simple. But the output/organisms we have to
           | investigate how they work.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | > you realize nobody understands WHY or HOW these models
             | work under the hood right?
             | 
             | Of course we understand how they work, we built them! There
             | is no mystery in their mechanisms, we know the number of
             | neurons, their connectivity, everything from the weights to
             | the activation functions. This is not a mystery, this is
             | several decades of technical developments.
             | 
             | > it's akin to evolution - we understand the process - that
             | part is simple.
             | 
             | There is nothing simple about evolution. Things like
             | horizontal gene transfer is very much not obvious, and the
             | effect of things like environment is a field of active
             | research.
             | 
             | > But the output/organisms we have to investigate how they
             | work.
             | 
             | There is a fundamental difference with neural networks
             | here: there are a lot of molecules in an animal's body
             | about which we have no clue. Similarly, we don't know what
             | a lot of almost any animal's DNA encodes. Model species
             | that are entirely mapped are few and far between. An
             | artificial neural network is built from simple bricks that
             | interact in well defined ways. We really cannot say the
             | same thing about chemistry in general, much less bio
             | chemistry.
        
               | zamfi wrote:
               | > Of course we understand how they work, we built them!
               | There is no mystery in their mechanisms, we know the
               | number of neurons, their connectivity, everything from
               | the weights to the activation functions. This is not a
               | mystery, this is several decades of technical
               | developments.
               | 
               | The discovery of DNA's structure was heralded as
               | containing the same explanatory power as you describe
               | here.
               | 
               | Turns out, the story was much more complicated then, and
               | is much more complicated now.
               | 
               | Anyone today who tells you they know why LLMs are capable
               | of programming, and how they do it, is plainly lying to
               | you.
               | 
               | We have built a complex system that we only understand
               | well at a basic "well there are weights and there's
               | attention, I guess?" layer. Past that we only have
               | speculation right now.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > The discovery of DNA's structure was heralded as
               | containing the same explanatory power as you describe
               | here.
               | 
               | Not at all. It's like saying that since we can read
               | hieroglyphics we know all about ancient Egypt.
               | Deciphering DNA is tool to understand biology, it is not
               | that understanding in itself.
               | 
               | > Turns out, the story was much more complicated then,
               | and is much more complicated now.
               | 
               | We are reverse engineering biology. We are building
               | artificial intelligence. There is a fundamental
               | difference and equating them is fundamentally
               | misunderstanding both of them.
               | 
               | > Anyone today who tells you they know why LLMs are
               | capable of programming, and how they do it, is plainly
               | lying to you.
               | 
               | How so? They can do it because we taught them, there is
               | no magic.
               | 
               | > We have built a complex system that we only understand
               | well at a basic "well there are weights and there's
               | attention, I guess?" layer. Past that we only have
               | speculation right now.
               | 
               | Exactly in the same way that nobody understand in detail
               | how a complex modern SoC works. Again, there is no magic.
        
               | shwouchk wrote:
               | Why stop at chemistry? Chemistry is fundamentally quantum
               | electrodynamics applied to huge ensembles of particles.
               | QED is very well understood and gives the best
               | predictions we have to date of any scientific theory.
               | 
               | How come we don't entirely understand biology then?
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > Why stop at chemistry? Chemistry is fundamentally
               | quantum electrodynamics applied to huge ensembles of
               | particles.
               | 
               | Chemistry _is_ indeed applied QED ;) (and you don 't need
               | massive numbers of particles to have very complex
               | chemistry)
               | 
               | > How come we don't entirely understand biology then?
               | 
               | We understand some of the basics (even QED is not
               | reality). That understanding comes from bottom-up studies
               | of biochemistry, but most of it comes from top-down
               | observation of whatever there happens to be around us.
               | The trouble is that we are using this imperfect
               | understanding of the basics to reverse engineer an
               | insanely complex system that involves phenomena spanning
               | 9 orders of magnitude both in space and time.
               | 
               | LLMs did not spawn on their own. There is a continuous
               | progression from the perceptron to GPT-4, each one
               | building on the previous generation, and every step was
               | purposeful and documented. There is no sudden jump,
               | merely an exponential progression over decades. It's
               | fundamentally very different from anything we can see in
               | nature, where nothing was designed and everything appears
               | from fundamental phenomena we don't understand.
               | 
               | As I said, imagining that the current state of AI is
               | anything like biology is a profound misunderstanding of
               | the complexity of both. We like to think we're gods, but
               | we're really children in a sand box.
        
               | shwouchk wrote:
               | I will ignore your patronizing remarks beyond
               | acknowledging them here, in order to promote civil
               | discourse.
               | 
               | I think you have missed my point by focusing on biology
               | as an extremely complex field.e, it was my mistake to use
               | it as an example in the first place. We don't need to go
               | that far;
               | 
               | sure, llms did not spawn on their own. They are a result
               | of thousands of years of progress in countless fields of
               | science and engineering. Like any modern invention,
               | essentially.
               | 
               | Here I remember to make sure we are on the same page on
               | what we're discussing - as I understand, whether "prompt
               | engineering" can be considered an engineering/science
               | practice. Personally I haven't considered this enough to
               | form an opinion but your argument does not sound
               | convincing to me;
               | 
               | I guess your idea of what llms represent matters here.
               | The way I see it, in some abstract sense we are as
               | society exploring a current peak - in compute $ or flops
               | and performance on certain tasks - of a rather large but
               | also narrow family of functions. By focusing our
               | attention on functions composed of ones we understood how
               | to effectively find parameters for, we were able to build
               | at this point rather complicated processes for finding
               | parameters for the compositions.
               | 
               | Yes, the components are understood, at various levels of
               | rigor, but the thing produced is not yet sufficiently
               | understood. Partly out of cost to reproduce such
               | research, and partly due to complexity of the system, a
               | driver for the cost.
               | 
               | The fact that "prompt engineering" as a practice and that
               | companies supposedly base their business model on secret
               | prompts is a testament, for me, to the fact they are not
               | well understood. A well understood system you design has
               | a well understood interface.
               | 
               | Now, I haven't noticed a specific post OP was criticizing
               | so i take it his remarks were general. He seems to thinks
               | that some research is not worth publishing. I tend to
               | agree that I would like research to be of high quality,
               | but that is subjective. Is it novel? is it true?
               | 
               | Now, progress will be progress and im sure current
               | architectures will change and models will get larger. And
               | it may be that a few giants are the only one running
               | models large enough to require prompt engineering. Or we
               | may find a way to have those models understand us better
               | than a human ever could. Doubtful. And post singularity
               | anyway, by definition.
               | 
               | In either case yes, probably temporary profession. But in
               | case open research will continue in those directions as
               | well, there will be need for people to figure out ways to
               | communicate effectively with these. You dismiss them as
               | testers.
               | 
               | However, progress in science and engineering is often
               | driven by data where theory is lacking and I'm not aware
               | of the existence of deep theory as of yet. eg something
               | that would predict how well a certain architecture would
               | perform. Engineering ahead of theory, driven by $).
               | 
               | As in physics that we both mentioned, knowing the
               | component part does not automatically grant you
               | understanding of the whole. knowing everything there is
               | to know about the relevant physical interaction, protein
               | folding was a tough problem that AFAIR has had a lot of
               | success with tools from the field. Square in the realm of
               | physics even, and we can't give good predictions without
               | testing (computationally).
               | 
               | If someone tested some folding algorithm and visually
               | inspected results, then found a trick how to consistently
               | improve on the result in some subcase of proteins. Would
               | that be worthy of publishing? if yes, why is this
               | different? if not, why not?
        
               | jejeyyy77 wrote:
               | We designed the process. We didn't design the models -
               | the models were "designed" based on the features of a
               | massive dataset and massive number of iterations.
               | 
               | Even if you understand evolution - you still don't
               | understand how the human body or mind works. That needs
               | to be investigated and discovered.
               | 
               | In the same way, you understanding how these models were
               | trained doesn't help you understand how the models work.
               | That needs to be investigated and discovered.
        
         | thesz wrote:
         | > Lower-order ML constructs do not demonstrate emergent
         | capabilities like step by step, stream of consciousness
         | thinking, and so on.
         | 
         | As a matter of fact, I did a project on the normalization of
         | the text, e.g., translate "crossing of 6 a. and 12 s." into
         | "crossing of sixth avenue and 12-th street" with a simple LM
         | (order 3) and beam search on the lattice paths, lattice formed
         | with hypotheses' variants. I got two fold decrease of word
         | error rate compared to simpler approach with just outputting
         | the most probable WFST path. It was not "step by step stream of
         | consciousness," but nevertheless very impressive feat, when
         | system started to know more without much effort.
         | 
         | The large LM's do not just output "most probable" token, they
         | output most probable sequence of tokens and it is done with the
         | beam search.
         | 
         | As you can see, my experience tells me that beam search alone
         | can noticeably, if not tremendously, improve quality of the
         | output, even for very simple LMs.
         | 
         | And if I may, the higher-order construct here is a _beam
         | search_ , not the LMs-as-matrix-coefficients' themselves. Beam
         | search is used in speech recognition for decades now, SR does
         | not work properly without it. LM's, apparently, also do not
         | work without it.
        
           | azinman2 wrote:
           | Is there something you can link to? I'd like to learn more.
        
             | thesz wrote:
             | Here it is: https://huggingface.co/blog/how-to-generate
             | 
             | Beam search at Wikipedia:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beam_search
             | 
             | Beam search in Sqlite: https://www.sqlite.org/queryplanner-
             | ng.html#_a_difficult_cas...
             | 
             | Beam search is more interesting than its' application
             | within AI field.
        
         | _gabe_ wrote:
         | I feel like the author of this tweet wasn't saying step-by-step
         | isn't worthy, he was saying that non-reproducible results are
         | not science. He emphasizes this twice in that tweet:
         | 
         | > one experiment on one data set with seed picking is not
         | worthy reporting
         | 
         | > Additionally, we all need to understand this is just one good
         | empirical result, now we need to make it useful...
        
           | low_tech_love wrote:
           | Exactly, and I tend to agree with him. I argued some time ago
           | here that a paper should take some time to try to explain why
           | its results are happening, at least from a reasonable
           | hypothesis (people didn't seem to agree). An experiment (even
           | a simple one) starts from a null hypothesis and tries to
           | disprove it. However, most of what we see coming out of
           | "scientific" papers is basically just engineering, I guess?:
           | we put all of these things together in some way (out of pure
           | guess and/or preference bias) and these results happened. We
           | don't know why, good luck figuring it out. Here is one
           | example where it works (don't ask where it doesn't; we
           | intentionally kept those out).
           | 
           | And while I obviously value very much the engineering
           | advances we have seen, the science is still lacking, because
           | not enough people are trying to understand _why_ these things
           | are happening. Although engineering advances are important
           | and valuable, I don 't understand exactly why people try so
           | hard to call themselves scientists if they are basically
           | skipping the scientific process entirely.
        
             | jimbokun wrote:
             | Lots of onions in the varnish.
        
           | roguas wrote:
           | Is it non-reproducible? Also results which reproducibility
           | can be measured and appears stable is perfectly good science.
           | I dislike when people throw statements like that.
        
             | _gabe_ wrote:
             | I have no idea. The author of that tweet seems to imply
             | that the results aren't reproducible. I was just commenting
             | to point out that the author's intent may have been
             | different from what the grandparent comment was saying.
        
         | jebarker wrote:
         | > emergent capabilities like step by step, stream of
         | consciousness thinking
         | 
         | What makes these things "emergent capabilities"? They seem like
         | pretty straightforward consequences of autoregressive
         | generation. If you feed output back as input then you'll get
         | more output conditioned on that new input and stream of
         | conscious generation is just stochastic parroting isn't it?
        
           | selfhoster11 wrote:
           | They are emergent in the sense that there is nothing in the
           | pre-training dataset that would show the LLM by example how
           | to, for example, compare and contrast any given pairing of
           | fruit, technologies, or fictional settings, while thinking
           | with the mindset of a doctor that hates both options, and on
           | top of that make sure that this ends up formatted as a
           | stream-of-consciousness. It can learn all these aspects from
           | the source data individually in isolation, but there's no way
           | there are examples that show how to combine it all (awareness
           | of world information + knowledge of how to use it) into a
           | single answer. That's probably a very clumsy example - others
           | online have supplied more rigorous ones that I recommend
           | checking out.
           | 
           | Strictly speaking, it might be "stochastic parroting". But
           | really, if you want to be a great and supremely effective
           | stochastic parrot, you have to learn an internal
           | representation of certain things so that you can predict
           | them. And there are hints that this is exactly what a
           | sufficiently-large large language model is doing.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | I'm reading this tweet as saying "you can't write a paper by
         | prompting an LLM in these ways" rather than "you can't write a
         | paper characterising the impact of prompting an LLM in these
         | ways".
         | 
         | I'd agree the former won't get you a complete _anything_
         | (longer than ~30 lines) by itself (90-95% cool, but with some
         | incredible errors in the other 5-10%).
         | 
         | I'd also agree that the latter is worthy of publishing.
        
         | nipponese wrote:
         | Sorry, ignoramus here: Which paper is "Step by step"?
        
           | zxt_tzx wrote:
           | I think it's a reference to the "discovery" that if you ask
           | GPT-4 to answer your query "step by step", it'll actually
           | offer a better response than otherwise.
        
         | renonce wrote:
         | I would say rather than saying that a new prompt is not
         | science, it's certainly a new discovery that is worth sharing.
         | Maybe there should be a higher bar for papers, but why we have
         | to make a discovery a paper - and not publish it at all if it
         | cannot be made one - when a simple blog post or a tweet would
         | convey the discovery very well?
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | Anecdotally,
         | 
         | The field of ML suffered from a problem where there were more
         | entrants to the field than available positions/viable work. In
         | many industrial positions, it was possible to hide a lack of
         | progress behind ambiguity and/or poor metrics. This lead to a
         | large amount of gate keeping for productive work as ultimately
         | there wasn't enough to go around in the typical case.
         | 
         | This attitude is somewhat pervasive leading to blogs like the
         | above. Granted, the Nth prompting paper probably isn't
         | interesting - but new programming languages for prompts and
         | prompt discovery techniques are _very_ exciting. I wouldn 't be
         | surprised if it turned out that automatic prompt expansion
         | using a small pre-processing model turns out to be an effective
         | technique.
        
         | zxt_tzx wrote:
         | On a related note, there is this recent tweet purportedly
         | showing that "offering to give a tip to ChatGPT" improves
         | performance (or at the very least resulted in longer responses,
         | which might not be a good proxy for performance)
         | https://twitter.com/voooooogel/status/1730726744314069190
        
         | WhitneyLand wrote:
         | What you're saying seems to be compounded by the black box
         | aspects here.
         | 
         | Instinctively a prompt may look like one line of code. We can
         | often know or prove what a compiler is doing, but higher
         | dimensional space is just not understood in the same way.
         | 
         | What other engineered thing in history has had this much
         | immediately useful emergent capability? Genetic algorithms
         | finding antenna designs and flocking algorithms are fantastic,
         | but I would argue narrower in scope.
         | 
         | Of course a paper is still expected to expand knowledge, to
         | have rigor and impact, but I don't see why a prompt centric
         | contribution would inherently preclude this.
        
         | skyde wrote:
         | I have a question For people in the field!
         | 
         | Would GPT only with pretraining and no fine tuning be able to
         | behave better when prompt is "let's think step by step"?
         | 
         | Or this prompt only worked because a fine tuning dataset
         | containing many "let's think step by step" prompt was used?
        
           | selfhoster11 wrote:
           | Working with pure pre-trained models is quite hard, and takes
           | some practice. The key part is that "let's think step by
           | step" is a technique that is used by humans also, and
           | therefore (I think) would be somewhat represented in the pre-
           | training corpus. It would be somewhat harder to "activate"
           | this mode of thinking than a "let's think step by step" would
           | in a fine-tuned model, but it would be possible with some
           | elbow grease.
        
         | tensor wrote:
         | I'm not surprised at the defence of "prompt engineering" here.
         | It's something easy to do with no real knowledge, and I'm sure
         | having it dismissed hurts some people.
         | 
         | But I 100% agree with the author, "prompt engineering" is not
         | science, and I'd say it's not engineering either. All you're
         | doing is exploring the parameter space of particular model in a
         | very crude way. There is no "engineering" going on in this
         | process, just a bunch of trial and error. Perhaps it should be
         | called "prompt guessing."
         | 
         | None of the results of this process will transfer to any other
         | model. It's simply not science. Papers like "step-by-step" are
         | different, and relate more to learning and inference and do
         | translate to different models and even different architectures.
         | 
         | Also, no, we are not all beginners here. Language models have a
         | long history, and while the very large models are impressive,
         | most of their failings have been known for a very long time
         | already. Things like "prompt engineering" will eventually end
         | up in the same graveyard as "keyword engineers" of the past.
        
           | adastra22 wrote:
           | > But I 100% agree with the author, "prompt engineering" is
           | not science, and I'd say it's not engineering either. All
           | you're doing is exploring the parameter space of particular
           | model in a very crude way. There is no "engineering" going on
           | in this process, just a bunch of trial and error.
           | 
           | I wonder what your definition of "science" or "engineering"
           | is...
        
             | 0xfae wrote:
             | Right? I'm having a hard time imagining a definition that
             | includes "trying new things and seeing what happens" but
             | that doesn't include... "trying new things and seeing what
             | happens"
        
               | aeternum wrote:
               | "Science" has been twisted recently into a kind of
               | witchcraft that can only be practiced by those anointed
               | through the rigors of academia.
               | 
               | "Trust the science"
               | 
               | In reality, that is about the furthest from what you
               | should do. As Feynman once said: "Science is the belief
               | in the ignorance of experts". Electricity was also once
               | considered a toy and good for nothing but parlor tricks.
        
             | roguas wrote:
             | Especially given this would be fine definition of
             | engineering+science: "All you're doing is exploring the
             | parameter space of particular model in a very crude way."
        
             | gwervc wrote:
             | If you remove the AI glasses, "prompt engineering" is just
             | typing words and seeing if results match the
             | expectations... which is exactly what any search engine
             | pays their testers for. Those testers are making an
             | important job to keep improving the quality of the product
             | but they aren't engineers and even less so researchers.
             | 
             | Similarly a kid playing with the dose of water needed to
             | build a sandcastle isn't a civil engineer nor an
             | environmental researcher. Maybe on LinkedIn though.
        
               | blueboo wrote:
               | I'm not sure the scientific method itself can withstand
               | this sort of scrutiny. After all, it's just making
               | guesses about what will happen and then seeing what
               | happens!
        
               | j2kun wrote:
               | Except there's also, you know, building coherent theories
               | and using those theories to predict the system behavior.
        
               | selfhoster11 wrote:
               | All right, here is a theory: LLMs contain "latent
               | knowledge" that is sometimes used by the model during
               | inference, and sometimes it isn't.
               | 
               | One way to "engage" these internal representations is to
               | include keywords or patterns of text that make that
               | latent knowledge more likely to "activate". Say, if you
               | want to ask about palm trees, include a paragraph talking
               | about a species of a palm tree (no matter whether it
               | contains any information pertaining to the actual query,
               | so long it's "thematically" right) to make a higher
               | quality completion more likely.
               | 
               | It might not be the actual truth or what's going on
               | inside the model. But it works quite consistently when
               | applied to prompt engineering, and produces visibly
               | improved results.
        
             | naremu wrote:
             | It's funny how often I see people make bring up the "did
             | you know" tidbit about software engineering not being
             | "real" engineering in a traditional sense, which seems to
             | go very uncontroversially.
             | 
             | But prompt engineering is still a pressure point for some
             | people, despite being wildly more simple and accessible
             | (literally tell the thing to do a thing, and if it doesn't
             | do the thing right, reword)
             | 
             | It feels as though we're getting to the technological
             | equivalent of "what IS art anyways", and questions like if
             | non traditional forms like video games are art (I'm
             | thinking all the way up the chain to even say, Madden
             | games)
             | 
             | And in my experience, when something is under constant
             | questioning of whether or not it even counts as X, Y or Z,
             | it usually can technically qualify, but...
             | 
             | If people are constantly debating whether or not it's even
             | X, it's probably just not impressing people who don't
             | engage in it, as opposed to "traditional" concepts of
             | engineering and art, and part of the impression made comes
             | from the investment and irreplaceable skillsets, things
             | few, if anyone else at the time could have done.
             | 
             | This is why taping a banana on the wall is definitely
             | technically art, but not many outside the art community
             | that tapes bananas to walls really think much of it. It's
             | so mundane and accessible a feat that it doesn't garner
             | much merit to passerbys. It's art by the loosest technical
             | definition, and is giving a lot of credit for a small
             | amount of effort anyone could've done.
             | 
             | Admittedly "prompt engineering" is definitely less
             | accessible than a roll of duct tape and a banana but I
             | think we used to just call it "writing/communication", but
             | I guess those who feel capable at that, often just do it
             | manually anyways.
        
             | Tarq0n wrote:
             | Science should aim to create general (that is, generalized
             | or generalizable) knowledge. One prompt is just an
             | anecdote, a method for creating performant prompts or
             | deriving prompts from model characteristics would be more
             | scientific.
        
           | selfhoster11 wrote:
           | > All you're doing is exploring the parameter space of
           | particular model in a very crude way.
           | 
           | Yes. I come to think of prompt engineering as, in a sense,
           | doing an approximate SELECT query on the latent behavioural
           | space (excuse my lack of proper terminology, my background in
           | ML is pretty thin) that can be thought of as "fishing out"
           | the agent/personality/simulator that is most likely to give
           | you the kind of answer you want. Of course a prompt is a very
           | crude way to explore this space, but to me this is a
           | consequence of extremely poor tooling. For one, llama.cpp now
           | has negative prompts, while the GPT-4 API will probably never
           | have them. So we make-do with the interface available.
           | 
           | > There is no "engineering" going on in this process, just a
           | bunch of trial and error. Perhaps it should be called "prompt
           | guessing."
           | 
           | That is incorrect. It is true that there is a lot of trial
           | and error, yes. But it's not true that it's pure guessing
           | either. While my approach can be best described as a
           | systematic variant of vibe-driven development, at its core
           | it's quite similar to genetic programming. The prompt is
           | mutable, and it's efficacy is possible to evaluate at least
           | in a qualitative sense vs the last version of the prompt. By
           | iterative mutation (rephrasing, restructuring/refactoring the
           | whole prompt, changing out synonyms, adding or removing
           | formatting, adding or removing instructions and contextual
           | information), it is possible to iterate from a terrible
           | initial prompt to a much more elaborate prompt that gets you
           | 90-97% of the way towards nearly exactly what you want to do,
           | by combining the addition of new techniques with subjective
           | judgement on how to proceed (which is incidentally not too
           | different from some strains of classical programming). On
           | GPT-4, at least.
           | 
           | > None of the results of this process will transfer to any
           | other model.
           | 
           | Is that so? Yes, models are somewhat idiosyncratic, and you
           | cannot just drag and drop the same prompt between them. But,
           | in my admittedly limited experience of cross-model prompt
           | engineering, I have found that techniques which helped me to
           | achieve better results with the untuned GPT-3 base model,
           | also helped me greatly with the 7B Llama 1 models. I
           | hypothesise that (in the absence of muddling factors like
           | RLHF-induced censorship of model output), similarly sized
           | models should perform similarly on similar (not necessarily
           | identical) queries. For the time being, this hypothesis is
           | impossible to test because the only realistic peer to GPT-4
           | (i. e. Claude) is lobotomised to the extent where I would
           | outright pay a premium to not have to use it. I have more to
           | say on this, but won't unless you ask in the interests of
           | brevity.
           | 
           | > Language models have a long history, and while the very
           | large models are impressive, most of their failings have been
           | known for a very long time already. Things like "prompt
           | engineering" will eventually end up in the same graveyard as
           | "keyword engineers" of the past.
           | 
           | Language models have a long history, but a Markov chain can
           | hardly be asked to create a basic Python client for a novel
           | online API. I will also dispute the assertion that we know
           | the "failings" of large language models. Several times now,
           | previously "impossible" tasks have been proven eminently
           | possible by further research and/or re-testing on improved
           | models (better-trained, larger, novel fine-tuning techniques,
           | etc). I am far from being on the LLM hype train, or saying
           | they can do everything that optimists hope they can do. All
           | I'm saying, is that the academia is doing itself a disservice
           | by not looking at the field as something to be explored with
           | no preconceptions, positive or negative.
        
       | zitterbewegung wrote:
       | Being dismissive about this tweet or agreeing with the author is
       | one thing. Not realizing that the absolute minimum of a
       | scientific paper can be much lower than a new prompt for GPT-4 is
       | what everyone should be aware of.
        
       | Der_Einzige wrote:
       | While I think the twitter post author is being a bit of an ass,
       | they're sort of right about the overvaluing we've put on simply
       | better prompts. I wrote an opinionated GitHub gist about this
       | exact issue:
       | 
       | https://gist.github.com/Hellisotherpeople/45c619ee22aac6865c...
       | 
       | I do the whole NLP publishing thing and I've hesitated to "write
       | a paper" about applying techniques already known and used
       | everywhere in the stable diffusion community to NLP models. That
       | said, the AI community loves to pretend like they discovered
       | something, such as a recent paper purporting to be the first to
       | do "concept slider" Lora's, despite these existing for months
       | before that work was published on Civit.ai. The authors of course
       | didn't cite those already existing models.
       | 
       | Everyone chasing citations and clout hard right now because these
       | professors and researchers realize that they only have 5-10 years
       | before AI eats their jobs and most other white collar jobs. I
       | don't blame them. I want my mortgage paid off before I'm
       | automated away!
        
       | SamBam wrote:
       | Tired: Asking participants to sign an ethics pledge at the top of
       | a tax return makes them more honest.
       | 
       | Wired: Asking an LLM to write out their steps first makes them
       | more accurate.
       | 
       | They seem equally interesting to me, but one is a lot easier to
       | replicate, and the other is easier to lie about.
        
       | jatins wrote:
       | Can a person just go upload anything on arxiv or is there a
       | review process around these things?
       | 
       | What I am really asking is "what makes something a paper and not
       | a blogpost"?
        
         | forgotpwd16 wrote:
         | ArXiv is kinda reputation-based. That is to submit something
         | you need to be endorsed, either done automatically, based on
         | institution, or asking established authors. After being
         | endorsed to a subject area, you can submit freely to it,
         | keeping in mind:
         | 
         | >Submissions to arXiv are subject to a moderation process that
         | classifies material as topical to the subject area and checks
         | for scholarly value. Material is not peer-reviewed by arXiv -
         | the contents of arXiv submissions are wholly the responsibility
         | of the submitter and are presented "as is" without any warranty
         | or guarantee.
        
         | MzxgckZtNqX5i wrote:
         | "Articles" on arXiv are not peer-reviewed, they just check
         | whether it looks like it belongs to one of the categories they
         | hosts:
         | 
         | "Registered users may submit articles to be announced by arXiv.
         | There are no fees or costs for article submission. Submissions
         | to arXiv are subject to a moderation process that classifies
         | material as topical to the subject area and checks for
         | scholarly value. Material is not peer-reviewed by arXiv - the
         | contents of arXiv submissions are wholly the responsibility of
         | the submitter and are presented "as is" without any warranty or
         | guarantee." [0]
         | 
         | They are commonly known as pre-prints, in a similar fashion to
         | IACR ePrint [1] for cryptography.
         | 
         | [0]: https://info.arxiv.org/about/index.html
         | 
         | [1]: https://eprint.iacr.org/
        
       | wongarsu wrote:
       | I feel this has nothing at all to do with LLMs and more to do
       | with academic incentives in general. Focusing on quality over
       | quantity won't advance your career. Publishing lots of new papers
       | will, as long as they meet the minimum threshold to be accepted
       | into whatever journal or conference you are aiming for. Having
       | one good paper won't increase your h-score, three mediocre papers
       | might.
       | 
       | Doubly so when there's a new breakthrough, where one of your low-
       | effort papers might end up being the first saying something
       | obvious that ends up being really important. Because then
       | everyone will end up quoting your paper in perpetuity.
        
       | mensetmanusman wrote:
       | It is a _paper_, but it's not science, since GTP-4 is closed
       | source and thus not reproducible in a lab.
       | 
       | If OpenAI disappears tomorrow, papers are GTP-4 will likely be of
       | little to no value, which is another tell of a non-scientific
       | exploration.
       | 
       | (note: not all explorations are scientific, and that is great!
       | Science is just one of many tools for exploring lived reality.)
        
         | MattRix wrote:
         | That's like saying a biologist studying an endangered species
         | isn't doing science because the animal could disappear
         | tomorrow. The permanence of a subject has no bearing on whether
         | it is science or not.
         | 
         | The idea that science has to happen in a lab is of course
         | absurd as well.
        
           | dncornholio wrote:
           | I compare a paper on a GPT-4 prompt to a tutorial on how to
           | use Photoshop. It's not science IMO.
        
           | nicce wrote:
           | > That's like saying a biologist studying an endangered
           | species isn't doing science because the animal could
           | disappear tomorrow. The permanence of a subject has no
           | bearing on whether it is science or not. The idea that
           | science has to happen in a lab is of course absurd as well.
           | 
           | The main point here is that anyone can likely start studing
           | those endangered species and try to reproduce the results
           | while in GPT4 it is not possible at all. The lab point is
           | related to fact that we are talking about the software here.
        
             | roguas wrote:
             | Whats not possible? Do they ban people for exploring sota
             | model that they offer?
        
           | mmcwilliams wrote:
           | In the case of an endangered species a biologist would still
           | have access to take samples from it and inspect it. Science
           | doesn't have to happen in a lab but it's questionable to call
           | something science when it involves hitting a black box
           | endpoint which can change the underlying models and behaviors
           | at a whim.
        
         | EForEndeavour wrote:
         | What is science? Can you not apply it to artifacts whose inner
         | workings are hidden?
         | 
         | As as aside, I was surprised at the repeated misspelling of
         | GPT-4 and take it as a heuristic that this comment was likely
         | written by a real human :)
        
           | mensetmanusman wrote:
           | Aha, didn't know Guanosine-5'-triphosphate (GTP) (a purine
           | nucleoside triphosphate) was part of my ios dictionary, good
           | catch!
        
       | snet0 wrote:
       | It's hard to draw these lines, because you will certainly filter
       | out a lot of bad (i.e. useless, low contribution to any field)
       | papers, but you might _also_ filter out some really important
       | papers. Research being basic or something anyone could 've done
       | doesn't count againt its potential importance, just the expected
       | value of importance I guess.
       | 
       | I'd rather we had a few too many bad papers than a few too few
       | great papers.
        
       | darepublic wrote:
       | A new prompt is not a paper, but you can prompt it for a paper.
        
       | whywhywhywhy wrote:
       | Academia needs to get over itself, can't wait to see how amazing
       | this tech is going to get when the next generation who decide
       | never to bother with those stuffy and navel gazing institutions
       | becomes the driving force behind it.
       | 
       | Looking forward to "I made this cool thing, here's the
       | code/library you can use" rather than the papers/gatekeeping/ego
       | stroking/"muh PhD".
       | 
       | Think if Google had built an AI team around the former rather
       | than the latter, they wouldn't have risked the future of their
       | entire company and squandered their decade head start.
        
       | elif wrote:
       | Nah, this is just an early example of many "this is too easy it
       | doesn't count" defensive human arguments against AI.
       | 
       | Parallel to the "you use copilot so your code quality is terrible
       | and you don't really even understand it so it's not maintainable"
       | human coping we are familiar with.
       | 
       | If there is any shred of truth to these defenses, it is temporary
       | and will be shown false by future, more powerful AI models.
       | 
       | Consider the theoretical prompt that allows one of these models
       | to rapidly improve itself into an AGI. Surely you'd want to read
       | that paper right?
        
         | jdefr89 wrote:
         | Id much rather see a PoC...
        
         | daveguy wrote:
         | No prompt will cause an LLM to rapidly improve itself, much
         | less into an AGI. Prompts don't cause permanent change in the
         | LLM, only differences in output.
        
           | elif wrote:
           | You're talking about how GPT functions in 2023. I am
           | discussing such a point where when LLM outputs become
           | valuable LLM modifications.
           | 
           | AI recursing on itself progressing toward an AGI.
        
       | gumballindie wrote:
       | Anyone caught doing this should be kicked out of the industry.
       | Period. You're scaming those funding your "research", you are
       | misleading readers, and are producing low quality content wasting
       | everyone's time.
        
       | coldtea wrote:
       | Sorry, but if they can get away with it, they'll release it as a
       | paper.
       | 
       | It's not like most papers are much above that anyway...
        
       | JR1427 wrote:
       | This reminds me of how there was a boom in half-baked studies
       | around COVID, e.g. modelling this or that aspect of the pandemic,
       | or around mask wearing.
       | 
       | I imagine that most of these will simply have had little to no
       | impact, and will only serve to bolster the publication list of
       | those who wrote them.
        
       | carbocation wrote:
       | The art and science of building these models is not disputed, but
       | I think that the scientific value of prompts is tightly linked to
       | reproducibility.
       | 
       | If you've developed a new prompt for a model whose weights you
       | can directly access, then this prompt could have scientific value
       | because its utility will not diminish over time or be erased with
       | a new model update. I'm even generally of the view that a closed
       | API endpoint whose expiration date is years into the future could
       | have some value (but much less so). But simply finding a prompt
       | for something like ChatGPT is not useful for science because we
       | don't even have certainty about which model it's executing
       | against.
       | 
       | Note that some of the best uses of these models and prompting
       | have nothing to do with academics; this is a comment focused on
       | the idea about writing academic papers about prompts.
        
       | gandalfgeek wrote:
       | If a new prompt enables a new task or enhances performance on a
       | task then it absolutely should be published.
       | 
       | Back in the day would compiler optimizations be not worthy of
       | publishing?
        
       | skilled wrote:
       | I can maybe understand the frustration from a "scientific"
       | perspective, but for a lot of these "one prompt papers" - you
       | still need someone to sit down and do the analysis and
       | comparisons. Very few papers focus only on GPT/ChatGPT.
       | 
       | Additionally, it gives people other ideas to try for themselves.
       | And some of this stuff might be useful to someone in a specific
       | scenario.
       | 
       | It's not glamorous research or even future-proof seeing as how
       | certain prompts can be surgically removed or blocked by the owner
       | of the model, but I don't think it warrants telling people not to
       | do it.
        
       | jdefr89 wrote:
       | I am sorry but what can ChatGPT do that a couple of minutes of
       | googling couldn't solved? Write half hearted essays that all
       | contain the same phrase?
        
         | DrawTR wrote:
         | Anything generative? At its core, Google doesn't 'make'
         | anything when you query it.
        
         | potatoman22 wrote:
         | Generative LLMs can be turned into classifiers quite easily,
         | search engines cannot.
        
         | empath-nirvana wrote:
         | Why don't you spend 15 minutes playing around with it and see
         | what you can get it to do that google can't do?
        
       | glitchc wrote:
       | The current scientific research apparatus is more about being
       | first than about being correct or thorough. A paper that gets out
       | early means more citations, and many of the faculty sit on the
       | editorial boards, and are able to suggest/enforce specific
       | citations during the review process. Academics aren't fully to
       | blame for this, it's just how the incentives are set up in the
       | system. Tenure and promotions are increasingly based on h-index;
       | a measure of impact based largely on the number of citations.
        
         | rollcat wrote:
         | It's hard to estimate the impact of an idea in the same way
         | that you can estimate the impact of an investment (stock is a
         | number that goes up or down). You're right that the current
         | incentive system might be to blame, but a simplistic metric
         | will be gamed just as easily - what would you propose?
        
           | glitchc wrote:
           | Honestly, I don't think any metric can fix it, and don't have
           | any easy solutions to this. The problem is larger than
           | academia, more endemic to society. The root cause is
           | society's values have changed. Previously, prestige mattered
           | for something. Now, people would rather listen to pop stars
           | than learned individuals, and wealth is the only metric that
           | matters.
           | 
           | As a result, typical professions that used to confer
           | prestige, and for which prestige was supposed to be just
           | reward, such as a professor, a medical doctor, a judge, are
           | now mainly pursued for pecuniary reasons (money, job
           | security). And because they're not doing it for prestige,
           | they don't necessarily care about being right/correct.
           | Playing the game to maximize the revenue streams is
           | paramount. I happen to know a number of faculty who are quite
           | proud of their multiple revenue streams. This would be
           | unthinkable for an academic 50 years ago.
        
       | etewiah wrote:
       | Behind all this is a valid question. How does one evaluate
       | prompts and LLMs? As gipeties (custom gpts) become more popular
       | millions of hours will be wasted by ones that have been built
       | badly. Without some sort of automated quality control, gipeties
       | will become a victim of their own success.
        
       | yieldcrv wrote:
       | Arxiv is like the MENSA of the tech world
       | 
       | The similarity being that it's ego masquerading as academic.
       | 
       | Most things shared from there should have just been a blog post.
       | 
       | The last year has showed that AI/ML research and use did not need
       | academic gatekeeping by PhDs and yet many in that scene keep
       | trying self infatuating things with the lowest utility.
        
       | mo_42 wrote:
       | Why not? A paper is not necessarily scientific nor a
       | breakthrough. In my view, a paper is written and documented
       | communication that's usually approved by peers in the field. Also
       | a blunt observation in nature can be noteworthy. However, we
       | don't see such papers anymore as these fields have matured. Just
       | go back in the history of your field and you will find trivial
       | papers.
        
         | esalman wrote:
         | In the medical field, letters and case studies often document
         | observations that may not be groundbreaking. However,
         | scientific journals typically feature content that contributes
         | to existing knowledge, making it somewhat novel. Consequently,
         | presenting a set of POST parameters as an arXiv paper could be
         | perceived as undermining the integrity of the entire preprint
         | service.
        
       | samlhuillier wrote:
       | Times are changing. Human researchers will dedicate more and more
       | time towards getting language models to work in desired ways
       | rather than doing the research themselves. Language models will
       | largely be the ones making "research" discoveries. Both should be
       | considered valid research IMO.
        
       | WhitneyLand wrote:
       | Should this be a paper?
       | 
       | https://not-just-memorization.github.io/extracting-training-...
       | 
       | There is supporting analysis and measurement, but the essence is
       | a single type of prompt, and DeepMind is a heavyweight lab I
       | think it's fair to say.
       | 
       | Moreover there's evidence people independently reported this
       | result months beforehand on Reddit based on casual observation.
        
         | sgt101 wrote:
         | You will notice that they say in the blog post:
         | 
         | "If you're a researcher, consider pausing reading here, and
         | instead please read our full paper for interesting science
         | beyond just this one headline result. In particular, we do a
         | bunch of work on open-source and semi-closed-source models in
         | order to better understand the rate of extractable memorization
         | (see below) across a large set of models."
         | 
         | So they are _trying_ to rigorously quantify the behaviour of
         | the model. Is this  "look mom no hands"... I don't think so.
        
           | WhitneyLand wrote:
           | Sorry for any confusion, my comment was meant to refer to the
           | linked paper:
           | 
           | https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.17035
           | 
           | I think it's valid work, but the original tweet seems to call
           | a prompt based paper into question.
           | 
           | At least enough to clarify where he would stand on an example
           | like this.
        
       | potatoman22 wrote:
       | What's the difference between a paper on a new prompt and a paper
       | discussing a new domain-specific model, e.g. heart failure risk?
       | If they analyze the problem and solution equally, they both seem
       | useful. It's not like most other ML papers share their weights or
       | datasets.
        
       | alphazard wrote:
       | Developing prompts for these models isn't a science yet. It does
       | seem to meet most of the criteria for an art though.
       | 
       | We recognize some outputs as high quality, and others as low
       | quality, but often can't articulate the exact reason why. It
       | seems that some people are able to reliably produce high quality
       | results, indicating there is some kind of skill involved. More
       | precisely, the quality of an individual artist's last output is
       | positively correlated with the quality of their next output. A
       | kind of imprecise "shop talk" has emerged, self describing as
       | "prompt engineering", which resembles the conversations artists
       | in other mediums have.
       | 
       | For people in tech this will seem most similar to graphic
       | designers. They produce much nicer looking interfaces than lay
       | people can. We often can't explain why, but recognize it to be
       | the case. And graphic designers have their own set of jargon,
       | which is useful to them, but is not scientific.
       | 
       | "Prompt artist" is a better term than "prompt engineer".
        
         | rileymat2 wrote:
         | Why isn't it science? Surely people can use the scientific
         | method in investigating?
        
           | alphazard wrote:
           | For starters we don't have a way to measure quality
           | objectively, and this is the case for art in general. If you
           | were to develop an objective measure of beauty for example,
           | visual art as a discipline would quickly turn into a science.
           | At some level we know that's possible, we're all just brains
           | in jars. But AFAIK we aren't doing science there yet.
           | 
           | The science and engineering parts all have a measure of
           | quality, sometimes that's a human rating, sometimes it's
           | cross-entropy loss. There's nothing stopping someone from
           | using the scientific method to investigate these things, but
           | descriptively I haven't seen anyone, calling themselves a
           | "prompt engineer/scientist", doing that yet.
           | 
           | "I used these words, and I got this output which is nice"
           | sounds like, "I tried using these brushes and I made this
           | painting which is nice". I can agree with the painting being
           | nice, but not that science was used to engineer a nice
           | painting.
        
       | lmeyerov wrote:
       | To bring some data to a sour grapes fight:
       | https://paperswithcode.com/sota/code-generation-on-humaneval
       | 
       | For code generation, GPT4 is getting beat by the small prompt
       | library LATS wrapped around GPT3.5. Given the recent release of
       | MagicCoder / Instruct-OSS, that means a small prompt library + a
       | small 7B model you can self-host beats the much fancier GPT4.
       | 
       | Similar to when simple NNs destroyed a decade of Bayesian
       | modeling theses & research programs, it's frustrating for folks
       | going other paths. But it doesn't make the work 'wrong'.
        
         | harlanlewis wrote:
         | > GPT4 is getting beat by the small prompt library LATS wrapped
         | around GPT3.5
         | 
         | The link you shared doesn't quite reflect this. Omitting other
         | models...
         | 
         | LATS (gpt-4): 94.4 Reflexion (gpt-4): 91.0 gpt-4: 86.6 ... LATS
         | (gpt-3.5): 83.8 ... zero-shot (gpt-4): 67.0 zero-shot
         | (gpt-3.5): 48.1
         | 
         | I'm not quite sure how to translate leaderboards like these
         | into actual utility, but it certainly feels like "good enough"
         | is only going to get more accessible and I agree with what I
         | think is your broader point - more sophisticated techniques
         | will make small, affordable, self-hostable models viable in
         | their own right.
         | 
         | I'm optimistic we're on a path where further improvement isn't
         | totally dependent on just throwing money at more parameters.
        
         | spaceywilly wrote:
         | This right here. I feel like the focus on just throwing more
         | GPU at the problem is a mistake many of these companies are
         | making at the moment. The real breakthroughs will come when we
         | figure out how to use the current models and compute power more
         | efficiently. If it's prompt engineering that leads to this
         | breakthrough, so be it.
        
       | Racing0461 wrote:
       | Doesn't academia incentivise quantity over quality anyways?
        
       | grepLeigh wrote:
       | Studying the way LLMs behave to different prompts (or different
       | ways of fine-tuning for a set of prompts) is valuable science.
       | 
       | Some of the most interesting papers published this year
       | ("Automatic Multi-Step Reasoning and Tool-Use") compare prompt
       | strategies across a variety of tasks. The results are
       | fascinating, findings are applicable and invite further research
       | in the area of "prompt selection" or "tool selection."
        
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