[HN Gopher] Mechanic shortage means longer waits, $100k salaries...
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       Mechanic shortage means longer waits, $100k salaries for some
       technicians
        
       Author : pg_1234
       Score  : 19 points
       Date   : 2023-12-01 18:48 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.newsday.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.newsday.com)
        
       | robcohen wrote:
       | Average pay for a mechanic in NY is $52K. Average nationwide is
       | about $49K. Average nationwide salary by some estimates is
       | $59,428. Plus, it's a job that isn't considered "cool" or
       | "attractive" to anyone but teenage boys.
       | 
       | Yet somehow we still get articles like this that are basically
       | saying "wow, the top 1% of a mediocre-paying field gets 6 figs,
       | why oh why are people not clamoring to work?
       | 
       | So tired of this low-intelligence conversation.
        
         | FirmwareBurner wrote:
         | _> So tired of this low-intelligence conversation._
         | 
         | It's more like propaganda to attract more people into the
         | field.
        
         | Manuel_D wrote:
         | The US median income is 31,133 USD. So these mechanics are
         | making ~2x average income. Furthermore, the growth over recent
         | years has been significant 12-15% over the last couple years.
         | Yes, it's attention-grabbing to focus on the top few percent,
         | but it's equally low-effort to dismiss the the core message of
         | the article.
        
           | robcohen wrote:
           | https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html
           | 
           | It's not that low, it's higher according to many sources.
        
             | Manuel_D wrote:
             | "Average wage index" sounds like it's measuring mean, not
             | median.
        
         | AngryData wrote:
         | And you also have to consider the amount of money they put into
         | their tools too. Mechanics need to be holding tens of thousands
         | of dollars in tools, they aren't given tools by their employer
         | to use. And if they work for more than a few years in that job
         | there are health issues that arise. My mechanic father for
         | example needed both shoulders replaced, has nerve damage from
         | tool vibration, and his hands are basically permenant claws
         | that can still pull a wrench but prevent him from opening a jar
         | or bottle of pop without a tool to help grip it.
        
           | tomcam wrote:
           | > And you also have to consider the amount of money they put
           | into their tools too.
           | 
           | And training. One of the smartest people I know spent $50K to
           | get trained as a certified Ford mechanic, then another $50K
           | on tools. He became a general contractor because working on
           | houses used the exact same principles but everything is way
           | easier because it's at a far larger scale.
           | 
           | And sorry about your dad. A lot of these guys sacrifice their
           | knees as well.
        
         | csteubs wrote:
         | I'm not sure what aspect of this conversation is "low
         | intelligence", but automotive technician salary data doesn't
         | often match reality where techs can (and often do) make close
         | to double their "official" salary in side jobs. I'm a full-time
         | engineering manager at a startup in LA, and I do repair gigs in
         | my garage during the evenings and on weekends--all word-of-
         | mouth referrals from former and returning customers. I've made
         | a shade over $30k after expenses this year doing 2-3 jobs a
         | week. Most are catalytic converter replacements that I charge a
         | flat $500 for on $145 in parts; takes me an hour per. I've done
         | everything from rear main seals to fuel pump replacements to
         | in-and-out oil/filter changes.
         | 
         | What your comment and sentiment misses, I think, is that a
         | significant percentage of mechanics do shade-tree jobs that
         | won't ever be accounted for in official reports. Dealers and
         | shops have become extremely hit-and-miss, part quality fell
         | dramatically during the pandemic (ask me how I know), and
         | thrifty consumers are more inclined to spend money on
         | independent mechanics that work out of a small shop; there's a
         | ton of money not being accounted for in the process. Maybe not
         | "cool" or "attractive" to you, but I'd love to never have to
         | touch a keyboard again and spend my time working on cars,
         | boats, and fabrication.
        
           | gumballindie wrote:
           | > consumers are more inclined to spend money on independent
           | mechanics that work out of a small shop;
           | 
           | I'd love to have this option in the UK. Everything being over
           | regulated the type of service is all but extinct.
        
       | DaveExeter wrote:
       | I bet if it was $100k salaries for ALL technicians there would be
       | no shortage.
       | 
       | Of course this would cut into profits.
        
         | missedthecue wrote:
         | It would do more than "cut into profits", it would inflate
         | repair and maintenance bills for your average person
         | dramatically. For automobile servicing, labor costs are about
         | 50% of the bill. Double salaries from $52k national average to
         | $100k and everyone is now everyone is getting hit with 25%
         | higher costs at the mechanic. That money has got to come from
         | somewhere.
         | 
         | And for all the owner-operated mechanic garages out there,
         | which is probably the majority of them, their profit IS the
         | labor bill. "cutting into profits" while raising salary are
         | literally opposite concepts.
        
           | rat9988 wrote:
           | if it's owner operated then the owner isn't concerned by this
           | salary discussion.
        
         | s1artibartfast wrote:
         | What do your think the profit margin is for mechanic shops and
         | most service businesses?
        
           | mindslight wrote:
           | If we consider the 'profit margin' to include all the white
           | collar make-work jobs that aren't performing the actual work,
           | then pretty damn high. Last time I was at a stealership there
           | was a whole line of people just sitting at desks pretending
           | to be shop techs but actually just doing customer management.
           | Never mind the entire behind-the-scenes management structure.
           | 
           | Or you call a plumber for a simple repair and there goes one
           | kilodollar, while the guy doing the work gets a few hundred
           | of it. The rest is all going to the overhead of phone
           | answerer, scheduler, manager, business entity owner,
           | franchiser, etc. I suspect the majority of "cost disease" is
           | going to such intermediaries, and the thing about
           | intermediaries is they know their main job is maintaining
           | their position.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _suspect the majority of "cost disease" is going to such
             | intermediaries_
             | 
             | The trades are relatively efficient at forming new
             | entrants. Most of the plumbers, painters, carpenters, _et
             | cetera_ I 've worked with ran their own businesses. That
             | didn't make them cheaper.
        
               | mindslight wrote:
               | My second example there was _Roto Rooter_ [0], so along
               | with the stealership [1] these aren 't instances of
               | vibrant competition that allows for new entrants. But the
               | fact they can have this outsized overhead and yet still
               | have customers demonstrates _something_ , even if not
               | universal about the entire market.
               | 
               | I think this somewhat ties into business discovery
               | getting harder. There was a period where the Internet was
               | making this better, but has now been seemingly completely
               | locked down by web spammers and the surveillance-adtech
               | industry making it into a pay to play game (aka more
               | overhead). I'm halfheartedly in the market for
               | contractors myself, and it seems like the best way to
               | find leads is to sit down for lunch at a restaurant next
               | to a main road, and write down the phone numbers on the
               | trucks going by. At least that only requires people to
               | spring for the fancy truck wrap, rather than the fancy
               | website and surveillance-based advertising.
               | 
               | [0] My aunt's drain was slow and I was too swamped to
               | look at it, so that's who her helper ended up calling (
               | _sigh_ ). If I had known the bill was going to come to
               | $1200 for installing 12 feet of PVC pipe, I would have
               | made the time.
               | 
               | [1] Warranty recall.
        
             | s1artibartfast wrote:
             | I think I largely agree that there is a lot of
             | theoretically unproductive overhead in larger businesses,
             | but that doesnt mean it can be removed.
             | 
             | If you start a shop, you will quickly find that many
             | customers want mints on their pillows and telephone
             | sanitizers - Even if as an owner, you would prefer to fire
             | the lot of them and take an buy a new vacation home.
        
         | rasz wrote:
         | Fixing cars is already expensive to the point minor damage
         | requiring skilled labor is considered full write-off sending
         | vehicle to a salvage auction.
        
         | yumraj wrote:
         | > I bet if it was $100k salaries for ALL technicians there
         | would be no shortage.
         | 
         | OTOH, at some point outsourcing will become a viable alternate.
         | 
         | Pack up all the cars that need expensive repair, ship them to
         | Mexico for fixing, ship them back once repaired.
        
       | Manuel_D wrote:
       | Related economist article:
       | https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/30/a-new-age-of-th...
       | 
       | Blue collar workers are performing pretty over recent years.
        
       | JumpCrisscross wrote:
       | "Using a bare-bones overlapping generations model, we examine an
       | occupation facing obsolescence. We show that workers must be
       | compensated to enter the occupation-receiving what we dub
       | obsolescence rents-with fewer and older workers remaining in the
       | occupation. We investigate the market for teamsters at the dawn
       | of the automotive truck as an a propos parallel to truckers
       | themselves, as self-driving trucks crest the horizon. As
       | widespread adoption of trucks drew nearer, the number of
       | teamsters fell, the occupation became 'grayer', and teamster
       | wages rose, as predicted by the model." [1]
       | 
       | ICE vehicles aren't going away. But as they're replaced, the
       | willingness (and ability) to pay for repairs will go down.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31743/w317...
        
       | Dudester230602 wrote:
       | I guess if mechanics were not people, private equity would buy
       | them all.
        
       | Gunax wrote:
       | Employers say 'we cant find anyone and we are offering $XYZ'
       | where $XYZ is some astronomical amount.
       | 
       | And yet the experience of applicants is often very different.
       | They apply and never hear back. Or they never receive offers that
       | match.
       | 
       | So what's the discrepancy? Either one side is lying, or there is
       | something being miscommunicated.
       | 
       | My _guess_ is that often what employers mean is  'we cant find
       | anyone with these specific skills at this price point'.
       | 
       | You have to realize there is a finite number of people with X
       | years experience in Y. If you want to know how many people have
       | 10 years experience doing Y, it's upper bounded by the number of
       | people who were employed in Y 10 years ago.
        
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       (page generated 2023-12-01 23:02 UTC)