[HN Gopher] Star neuroscientist may have manipulated data to sup...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Star neuroscientist may have manipulated data to support a major
       stroke trial
        
       Author : EndXA
       Score  : 265 points
       Date   : 2023-12-01 13:43 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.science.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.science.org)
        
       | rand0mx1 wrote:
       | Earlier posted here:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38257700
        
         | mhb wrote:
         | It's happened to many of us.
        
       | tokai wrote:
       | Universities and funders should start suing these quacks. Like
       | how sponsors sometimes have gone after an athlete busted for
       | doping. Its insane how free scientific fraud is to do.
        
         | notyofriend wrote:
         | They want them to quietly go away less they reveal the rest of
         | the fraud culture going on in other labs
        
           | boringg wrote:
           | I doubt this is the case. However they should deal with it
           | before it ruins the reputation of the broader community - it
           | would prevent comments like this one from gathering steam.
        
             | notyofriend wrote:
             | They can't... it's so endemic they can't just fire half the
             | labs and give up all that sweet grant money. The reputation
             | hit would be ruinous. Universities would rather look away
             | and pretend there is no problem because it's too big to
             | deal with.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | This was downvoted for some reason but it is very clearly
               | true that universities just can't go on firing sprees if
               | they want to stay solvent.
               | 
               | Universities run a lot of even basic functions on grant
               | money (university takes a cut in money and/or labor) and
               | researchers and labs are the ones that apply for the
               | grants.
        
             | brigadier132 wrote:
             | Outright fraud, bad experiment design, and bad statistics.
             | At this point a good rule of thumb is if it hasn't been
             | replicated it's bullshit.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | And replication studies are very difficult to get
               | published, let alone funded.
        
               | dumbo-octopus wrote:
               | That's why commercialization is a better metric than
               | replication. If nobody is willing to pay for it, why
               | should my taxes fill the gap?
        
               | pcrh wrote:
               | There's no shortage of dodgy science in commerce.
        
               | dumbo-octopus wrote:
               | Perhaps, but a sizable cohort of people that paid their
               | hard earned cash for a product and go on the recommend
               | others do the same is much more reliable a signal than an
               | academic convincing their buddy in some government agency
               | to allocate them more taxpayer dollars.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | It took a few millenia from discovery to commercialize
               | such things as number theory, electricity and the wheel.
        
               | dumbo-octopus wrote:
               | And nobody's tax dollars paid for their development.
               | What's your point?
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | Number theory and electricity development was/is very
               | much paid from public funds, even dollars. For wheel
               | there obviously was no money at all, let alone dollars.
               | 
               | For most science there is no obvious commercialization at
               | least in any predictable timeframes. When there is, it's
               | typically called R&D.
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | Similar to the VC industry not seeking damages against
           | fraudulent CEOs.
           | 
           | It would just make them look worse and make people question
           | why they're giving that VC money.
        
             | peteradio wrote:
             | Wouldn't companies with frauds for CEOs avoid VCs that are
             | diligent? Wouldn't that mean those bulldog VCs would get
             | more (honest) money? I guess investors want to support the
             | good ol' pump and dump rather than real new value creation.
        
               | notyofriend wrote:
               | Why do you think soft bank is so popular with the frauds
        
               | uoaei wrote:
               | > I guess investors want to support the good ol' pump and
               | dump rather than real new value creation.
               | 
               | This is the primary critique from the left of the VC
               | phenomenon.
        
           | stillwithit wrote:
           | Gen pop wants ultimate freedom from obligation and endless
           | externalization of responsibility too
           | 
           | Turns out human meat suits are just driven by biology to
           | survive and not egalitarian human philosophy and psychology
        
         | dspillett wrote:
         | Universities themselves likely don't have the reserves required
         | to fund a good legal team for that.
         | 
         | Commercial sponsors maybe benefitted from the positive results
         | and don't want to risk losing future such benefits by biting
         | the hands that feed them...
        
           | conception wrote:
           | Enough Universities, such as USC in the article, definitely
           | have the funding to do this however. Enough Universities do
           | that could start some precedence and give researchers at
           | smaller unis payse before bad behavior.
        
           | mvdtnz wrote:
           | According to Wikipedia, USC has a $7.4 billion endowment.
        
           | some_random wrote:
           | Universities are some of the wealthiest institutions on the
           | planet, and they don't seem to have any issues getting a
           | legal team together when it comes to other matters.
        
           | jampekka wrote:
           | Why would universities sue them? They are benefactors of
           | research funding, not the ones paying them.
           | 
           | NIH and other funders would be the ones that would like their
           | money back (although they don't probably care either).
        
         | GartzenDeHaes wrote:
         | The call is coming from inside the house. Why do you think this
         | is a systemic problem in the first place?
        
           | ethanbond wrote:
           | Do we know this is a systemic problem? There is _a lot_ of
           | research going on. A few cases here and there do not
           | "systemic" make.
        
             | whythre wrote:
             | Yes it is a systemic issue. A cursory search for academic
             | research fraud will reveal this. Some fraudsters are very
             | high profile. There are all kinds of perverse incentives;
             | prestige, grant money, not wanting to waste time with
             | 'useless' negative results.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | Also outright fraud is just the tip of the iceberg.
        
             | renewiltord wrote:
             | Yeah, it's systemic. Faked fluorescence etc. Lots of
             | photoshopped biotech.
             | 
             | Everyone who I know who has encountered it just switches
             | who their research is based on. Then doesn't go get smacked
             | down. Quite risky to do so.
        
             | jampekka wrote:
             | It's very systematic.
             | 
             | https://retractionwatch.com/
        
           | pvaldes wrote:
           | The unofficial motto in academy: "cheat or perish"
           | 
           | but well... people gets what they asked for, so everybody
           | should be happy with the current situation.
           | 
           | If cheaters have the money it means also that somebody has
           | zero money. Is a double loss. This people simply pass over
           | the other researchers and push them out of the road.
        
           | somenameforme wrote:
           | It depends on the field, but medicine has replication rates
           | [1] that are so absurdly low that it's near to impossible for
           | there not to be significant scale shenanigans going on in the
           | research:
           | 
           | ---
           | 
           | 'A 2012 research paper found that only 11% of 53 pre-clinical
           | cancer studies had replications that could confirm
           | conclusions from the original studies.[79] In late 2021, The
           | Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology examined 53 top
           | papers about cancer published between 2010 and 2012 and
           | showed that among studies that provided sufficient
           | information to be redone, the effect sizes were 85% smaller
           | on average than the original findings.[80][81] Another report
           | estimated that almost half of randomized controlled trials
           | contained flawed data (based on the analysis of anonymized
           | individual participant data (IPD) from more than 150
           | trials).[83]
           | 
           | ---
           | 
           | There's also a simple pragmatic issue. When finding something
           | is effective gives you billions of dollars in profits, and
           | finding it ineffective gives you millions in losses, you have
           | motivations beyond just the truth. This is where regulatory
           | agencies are supposed to come into play, yet those agencies
           | tend to be staffed (if not lead) by people from the exact
           | same companies they're supposed to be regulating.
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis#In_medicine
        
         | MattGaiser wrote:
         | Have these people become all that individually wealthy? Is
         | there really any likelihood of recovering anything significant?
        
           | jampekka wrote:
           | If they don't start a company on the side or something, no.
           | They get a relatively nice salary, but probably less than
           | e.g. many high-in-demand programmers.
        
             | thaw13579 wrote:
             | It depends, the compensation is highly skewed. The PI in
             | question is likely compensated over $1M/year, while other
             | investigators involved (assistant and associate professors)
             | have compensation comparable to entry-level programmers. To
             | confirm these things, you can explore this database (only
             | public CA universities though):
             | https://www.sacbee.com/news/databases/state-pay/
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | $1M/year sounds insane. In Finland at least top salaries
               | for professors is about tenth of that. And I don't think
               | any of the professors I know make much more, in Europe or
               | North America.
               | 
               | Admin people like the principal may get obscene salaries
               | (like 4 times the max professor salary) though.
               | 
               | As an academic, I think academics (including me) are paid
               | too much. We need people who are interested in the
               | science, not those who (pretend to) do it for money.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | It's rare for an academic to make over $1M in salary, but
               | mid-high six figures is not uncommon for a highly
               | published, well known name with a track record of winning
               | large grants.
        
               | floor2 wrote:
               | > We need people who are interested in the science, not
               | those who (pretend to) do it for money.
               | 
               | In the US, the problem is mostly the opposite. Lots of
               | people would rather do science, but it's hard to choose
               | using your skills for real science when some company will
               | pay you 2x-10x to instead optimize ad clicks on their
               | website or algorithmic trading or whatever.
               | 
               | In some of the humanities, liberal arts, social sciences
               | etc academia may pay better than other options for those
               | people. But for most STEM folks, it's a tradeoff between
               | "low-paid meaningful work" vs "high-paid meaningless
               | work".
               | 
               | Medicine and AI research may be the only two areas where
               | people can simultaneously do cutting edge research and
               | make high salaries.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | Maybe a bit harsh, but I'm not sure science would get
               | more trustworthy if we'd get more people who choose to
               | optimize clicks just because it pays better.
               | 
               | It's really easy to do "shortcuts" in academia that gets
               | one better salary if that's what they want. As seen in
               | this post.
        
               | pcrh wrote:
               | $1M/yr for clinical scientists is not uncommon. Take a
               | look at this public list of senior researchers in the U
               | Cal. system.
               | 
               | https://transparentcalifornia.com/salaries/university-of-
               | cal...
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | What is their pay structure? The top earning prof gets
               | $0.3M "regular pay" and $3M "other pay".
               | 
               | Offtopic: At least for an european it's totally absurd
               | that the top 10 or so on that list are sports coaches.
               | 
               | https://transparentcalifornia.com/salaries/2022/universit
               | y-o...
        
               | pcrh wrote:
               | The person you linked to is a plastic surgeon at UCLA. So
               | I presume they get $300k for their role as an academic,
               | and the $3M through clinical work.
        
         | luma wrote:
         | Universities are the ones collecting the checks from the fraud,
         | they have zero incentive to uncover anything for the same
         | reason they never looked too hard at their athletes.
        
           | SoftTalker wrote:
           | Yep. 50% or more of the grant funding goes to "overhead"
           | which is a huge income stream to the university.
        
         | 303uru wrote:
         | Most of the grant money goes to the university, they have no
         | incentive to crack down on this fraud.
        
       | robswc wrote:
       | You can make the data say almost anything. IMO, this happens way
       | more than anyone thinks. When you only have 2-5 people that
       | _actually_ read a paper and they have to slog through it, its not
       | too shocking stuff like this could happen.
        
         | llm_nerd wrote:
         | >"When you only have 2-5 people that _actually_ read a paper"
         | 
         | Even when a paper goes through a vigilant, rigorous peer
         | review, it relies upon the data that the research team
         | supplied. Over and over again cases like this have encountered
         | manipulated data. Humans are flawed creatures, and if you spent
         | a lot of time and professional credibility on a hypothesis,
         | there is a strong motive to find what you sought. Doubly so if
         | the results are salacious or contrarian in some way and thus
         | get viral attention. Just convince yourself that it's the data
         | that was wrong somehow and you know your assumptions are right
         | so just this One Time you need to do a little manipulation.
         | 
         | A study I have seen cited on here countless times is the
         | "honesty pledge" one by Ariely et al. It was the one that
         | claimed that when a person signs a form at the beginning,
         | they're more honest. It was complete and utter BS, based
         | entirely on fabricated data. It joins an infamous list of
         | studies that have had enormous influence (especially if they
         | have an "aha!" factor -- if it is the sort of thing that
         | Malcolm Gladwell would talk about, consider it suspect) but
         | were the creation of someone making up data in Excel.
        
           | bumby wrote:
           | If I'm not mistaken, Ariely is asked about this on the
           | "Armchair Expert" podcast. His claim was that he did not
           | manipulate the data personally and it was someone further
           | upstream whom he trusted. His point was that at some point,
           | trust has to enter the process, except in the rare cases
           | where a single person is doing all the research themselves
           | (apologies if I'm misremembering this, but I think the
           | following point still stands.)
           | 
           | IMO the researcher still has some responsibility because
           | ultimately, it's their research. So the questions to me are:
           | 
           | 1) How much due diligence is reasonable? Does it change
           | depending on the source? For example, is it more/less
           | reasonable to accept government-provided data at face value
           | vs. data collected by an undergraduate?
           | 
           | 2) What processes can be implemented to safeguard data
           | manipulation? I know there is a movement to provide data with
           | peer-reviewed submittals, but it's still a low probability
           | that a peer-reviewer has the time or inclination to really
           | dive into the data to assess the claims.
        
             | nvm0n2 wrote:
             | Ariely tried to frame both his assistant and the insurance
             | company he got the data from. The insurers provided the
             | same data to a journalist who found there had been very
             | substantial alterations made. The assistant showed that the
             | Excel metadata indicated Ariely was the last to edit it.
        
           | robswc wrote:
           | Oh for sure. It would be very easy to determine if the data
           | is bad (in most cases) if someone tells you where to look. It
           | is almost impossible to expect people to put their mental
           | resources to trying to "crack" every paper that comes across
           | their desk tho... so we have a bit of a problem, to say the
           | least.
        
         | kemiller2002 wrote:
         | In my experimental design class in college, I remember the
         | professor talking about the difficulties of dealing with data
         | and what to include and what not. He pointed to a case where a
         | datapoint looks like an anomaly and possibly should be removed.
         | He showed the math behind it and including it means the
         | experiment doesn't show a positive result and excluding it
         | does. So which to do you do? If including it means you don't
         | get funding for you and your team, what do you decide? This, of
         | course, led into the ethics portion of the course, and how easy
         | it is to go down a bad path, because you can manipulate data to
         | make it say what you want.
        
           | h2odragon wrote:
           | Long while back, I had a big pile of numbers and I knew they
           | could offer some meaning if only I could extract it. There's
           | this whole discipline that advertises techniques for doing
           | that, called "Statistics", so I looked there for lessons.
           | 
           | What I found was "How to throw away data that doesn't support
           | your desired conclusions," for the most part. "Actuarial
           | Science," a different field, had some useful techniques but
           | not many. They're most interested in ensuring the bad data
           | doesn't get into the tables in the first place; but at least
           | they are doing "data on data" comparisons and not "data to
           | expectations"
           | 
           | We're building "AI" right now but think about the inputs
           | those see: The very first step is to throw away the
           | statistically too common "stop words" ...
        
             | nerdponx wrote:
             | > What I found was "How to throw away data that doesn't
             | support your desired conclusions," for the most part.
             | 
             | What exactly are you referring to here? This seems like a
             | wildly misguided characterization of statistics, which I am
             | sure cannot be based in expertise or practical applied
             | experience.
             | 
             | > We're building "AI" right now but think about the inputs
             | those see: The very first step is to throw away the
             | statistically too common "stop words"
             | 
             | This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what a "stopword"
             | is and how it's used.
             | 
             | Words like "the" are hard to utilize within with a bag-of-
             | words model specifically. Removing them is not something
             | people do/did because they are clueless monkeys. The goal
             | is to improve the signal-to-noise ratio.
             | 
             | For example, traditionally spam filtering uses a very crude
             | variety of bag-of-words model called "Naive Bayes", in
             | which we assume (wrongly of course) that word choice is
             | completely random, and that the only difference between
             | spam and not spam is that random distribution of words. Are
             | you really going to argue that the word "the" is critical
             | to that process? If you can build a better NB spam filter
             | by including stop words, by all means go ahead and do it.
             | But both linguistics and decades of success in the field
             | are against you.
             | 
             | On the other hand, words with grammatical function like
             | "the" are absolutely important and relevant to the overall
             | structure and meaning of a document. Therefore, training
             | pipelines for modern deep-learning-based LLMs like GPT
             | don't remove stop words (as far as I know at least),
             | because the whole idea of a stopword doesn't make sense in
             | a model like that.
             | 
             | I want to be respectful here, but it sounds like you took a
             | cursory look through three vast literatures, without the
             | perspective of having actually used any of this stuff in
             | real life, and drew some invalid conclusions.
        
               | h2odragon wrote:
               | > I want to be respectful here,
               | 
               | Thanks!
               | 
               | Many people in these fields agree my conclusions are
               | invalid. I say the same about theirs.
        
               | nerdponx wrote:
               | You're entitled to your own opinion of course, but your
               | conclusions appear to be based on beginner-level
               | misunderstandings. That doesn't seem like a constructive
               | or productive way to conduct oneself through life.
        
               | h2odragon wrote:
               | you should see my rants about why normalizing weights is
               | a bad idea and how a limited context window is
               | effectively random interpolation
        
           | nerdponx wrote:
           | You're describing a legitimately hard problem faced by honest
           | researchers. This case, it seems like we have enough evidence
           | to suggest that we are not dealing with honest researchers,
           | but rather deliberate fraud.
        
             | EnigmaFlare wrote:
             | That's not a hard problem for an honest researcher. Just
             | explain the risk of that data point in the grant
             | application and if the funders decide not to take the risk,
             | that's their perogative.
        
           | bsimpson wrote:
           | There are so many complications because of data fraud and the
           | fear of perception of data fraud.
           | 
           | I'm the guy who builds the experiments on a team of user
           | researchers. There are all sorts of things that seem
           | intuitive to an outsider but are poo-pooed by practitioners
           | as unethical. For instance, you might run a study that
           | doesn't have enough participants to have a statistically
           | significant conclusion. An outsider would deploy it to more
           | participants to see if the trend becomes significant with
           | more data. A trained researcher will cringe at that proposal.
           | 
           | So far as I can tell, researchers consider the experiment
           | final as soon as you peek at the data. If you want any
           | changes - more data, different demographics, etc - you have
           | to throw out everything and start over. Even though it's
           | logically interchangeable, the data you've already collected
           | is considered spoiled, because they don't want allegations of
           | tampering/data grooming.
        
         | bumby wrote:
         | > _You can make the data say almost anything._
         | 
         | A coworker had a saying:
         | 
         | "Data is like a prisoner of war. If you beat it around enough,
         | you can make it tell you almost anything."
        
           | robswc wrote:
           | Yep. I actually am a co-author of a paper that has been
           | published and while I was working on it, I realized how easy
           | it would have been to make the data agree or disagree with
           | the hypothesis. Based on the feedback of reviewers, you see
           | they don't dig into how you get your data and it seems as if
           | its based on "good faith."
           | 
           | I could have made a mistake, or I could have been malicious.
           | I don't think they would have caught it because it would have
           | involved hours and hours of work on their part.
        
             | jampekka wrote:
             | With current complex data processing pipelines it is almost
             | trivial to add e.g. a wrong sign to some variable to get
             | "results" from data that doesn't contain any. I've had many
             | "results" disappear after I found a bug. I could have
             | probably gotten papers quite easily by ignoring the bug.
             | 
             | I'm quite certain a huge share of "results" are due to
             | bugs. Probably many of my own too even though I stress
             | about this constantly.
             | 
             | An intentional bug would be practically impossible to show
             | to be intentional. With notebook/REPL style analysis there
             | wouldn't necessarily even be any documentation of the bug.
             | I'd wager it actually happens, and even surprisingly often.
             | We only know of fabricators who are bad at fabrication.
        
         | codedokode wrote:
         | > When you only have 2-5 people that _actually_ read a paper
         | 
         | But his papers got thousand of citations as I understand ...
         | that means thousands of people read them?
        
           | robswc wrote:
           | >that means thousands of people read them
           | 
           | ahah, if only that were the case :)
           | 
           | "read" is a pretty loose term. I think its a house of cards.
           | When you cite something, you do so (usually) because it
           | supports your paper, basically "X did Y and we need Y to be
           | true for the foundations of this paper." When you cite "X",
           | you do so with the assumption that X did their due diligence
           | and peer review would have caught any issues... but its still
           | only an assumption. If you had to re-create every experiment
           | for every paper you cite, I'm not sure if one would ever
           | actually finish their own research.
           | 
           | I have only ever published one paper though, so take what I
           | say with a grain of salt. It's just my experience.
        
           | u32480932048 wrote:
           | lol
        
           | ska wrote:
           | > that means thousands of people read them?
           | 
           | It doesn't, but that's counter-intuitive.
           | 
           | With relatively new, relatively small citation counts, the
           | numbers are probably indicative of the number of actual
           | readers.
           | 
           | But well established, high citation number papers often take
           | on a "shorthand" role. You'll often see them in introductory
           | sections or other supporting text with statements like
           | "previous authors have X", "common approaches such as Y",
           | etc. Here they often have little to do with the core of the
           | paper, they are providing context.
           | 
           | Now really people _should_ have read them, but sometimes
           | Jones, et. al. 1998 just becomes a collective shorthand for a
           | set of ideas. As such people will quote it just because the
           | papers they did read quoted it, etc.
           | 
           | Often, over time, a single paper becomes the landmark for a
           | set of ideas, and just gets cited to pull those in by
           | reference. In theory this is the paper that "invented" those
           | ideas, but in reality it's more complicated. Overall it's not
           | a terrible practice, as a way to frame things, but can be
           | error prone.
        
           | nvm0n2 wrote:
           | If you read papers in the less reputable parts of science
           | (public health, epidemiology...) you'll quickly notice
           | citations going to papers that contradict the cited claim, or
           | which are about something totally different, or that don't
           | contain any support for the claim within them. It's common.
           | Peer reviewers don't notice this stuff, journal editors don't
           | either. They might scan read the paper but they aren't
           | checking it adversarially.
        
         | el_cujo wrote:
         | Absolutely, but most of this stuff happens outside of what
         | shows up in the paper like coming up with excuses on why data
         | points can be dropped or shopping around for different
         | statistical methods that make things look the best. There can
         | even be legit reasons for doing this kind of thing and that's
         | what makes it hard to detect, it's basically just the honor
         | system on whether you're "p-value hacking" or following common
         | methods.
         | 
         | This is kind of why it annoys me a bit when I hear people
         | harping on about trusting science, most science is not as
         | simple as finding objective truths and just reporting them.
         | That's not to say all science is bs and you're better off
         | consulting a magic 8 ball, just that it should never be
         | discouraged to look at methods and conclusions with a critical
         | attitude. There is room for things to be fudged or pushed and
         | very strong incentives for people to do it given how much money
         | and prestige are on the line. It doesn't even have to be as big
         | as a drug trial, one high profile publication can be enough to
         | make a career so you can see how tempting it can be to just
         | change a couple pixels in an image to boost a theory you
         | earnestly believe is true
        
       | epups wrote:
       | There should be stronger consequences for this behavior. It costs
       | hundreds of millions of dollars and several careers to deal with
       | the outcome of data fabrication. Meanwhile, the worst case
       | scenario for the fraudster is losing their job.
        
         | ceejayoz wrote:
         | It also indirectly delays advances in medical care that, on a
         | population-level scale, undoubtedly kills people. Murder in
         | everything but name.
        
           | packetlost wrote:
           | Does it though? I find it hard to believe that this type of
           | fraud wouldn't also lead death in some circumstances (maybe
           | not this one).
        
           | bumby wrote:
           | The difficulty is in proving damages, though. Even if
           | probable, it's still conjecture and our court systems have a
           | higher bar than that, generally.
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | Yeah, we have a societal problem in this regard;
             | _statistical_ murder is tough to quantify and thus is
             | largely unpunishable. Coal power, for example, likely kills
             | thousands of people a year in the USA, but none of it
             | directly enough to count as a crime.
             | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/23/coal-
             | pow...
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | I think negative externalities should be priced in. But
               | it's a very complicated problem.
               | 
               | With the above premise, where do you draw the line? For
               | example, are you complicit if you use that electricity
               | (or buy that cell phone made from unsavory practices)?
               | From a legal standpoint, should you be charged because
               | you materially benefitted from a criminal action?
        
             | codedokode wrote:
             | But copyright owners prove damages by number of torrent
             | file downloads pretty easily.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | Copyright infringement is easier to quantify because you
               | can quite literally count the number of copies.
               | 
               | How do you copy the number of deaths that happened
               | because _Research_X_ went unfunded due to fraud occurring
               | in _Research_Y_?
        
               | nairboon wrote:
               | You could start with claimed increase in life expectancy
               | in the target population times actual deaths during the
               | fraudulent research funding period times the usual value
               | of a life.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | But again, this is just a statistical argument, not
               | actual damages. For a tort case, you generally need to
               | show real damages. For a criminal case, I don't think a
               | statistical argument would sway a jury beyond a
               | reasonable doubt that academic fraud caused specific
               | deaths. There's a reason why the burden of proof in our
               | court systems is structured the way it is.
               | 
               | Besides, you don't even know that the unfunded research
               | would have resulted in increased life expectancy because
               | _the research was never conducted._ You 're trying to
               | prove a counter-factual where you don't have data.
               | Additionally, there are probably far too many confounding
               | factors in health science to make a strong statistical
               | claim against a single action as you're insinuating.
        
       | laborcontract wrote:
       | How are the feds able to stick a wire fraud charge on almost
       | anything except for academic fraud? It's one thing to make a
       | mistake like Reinhart and Rogoff's embarrassing excel blunder.
       | It's entirely something else to falsify data.
       | 
       | > Under Zlokovic's leadership, the USC institute has expanded to
       | more than 30 labs and grown its annual funding more than 10-fold,
       | exceeding $39 million in 2022. NIH grants to Zlokovic have
       | totaled about $93 million. A prodigious fundraiser, in the past
       | decade alone he has added at least $28 million from private
       | sources, according to USC.
       | 
       | So the NIH has given the man $93m. Surely that's a place to
       | start?
        
         | boringg wrote:
         | The LOE to figure out if someone manipulated data vs wirefraud
         | is significantly different and probably much harder.
        
           | alistairSH wrote:
           | I would assume that once law enforcement has established
           | facts were materially altered for the purpose of obtaining
           | funding, the jump to wire fraud would be relatively trivial
           | (given today's heavy reliance on email/internet to do just
           | about anything).
        
             | chiggsy wrote:
             | > once law enforcement has established facts were
             | materially altered for the purpose of obtaining funding
             | 
             | If you establish this, that's the case right there.
        
         | jvans wrote:
         | Wire fraud and prison sentences would be a good start. Besides
         | the absolute dollar amount, the amount of damage done in the
         | form of second order affects is enormous.
        
           | nerdponx wrote:
           | Could the NIH file some kind of civil suit here?
        
             | staticautomatic wrote:
             | Potentially for something like fraud. There could also
             | maybe be a False Claims Act suit here.
        
         | MPSimmons wrote:
         | If you (like me) weren't familiar with the Excel mistake:
         | 
         | https://www.businessinsider.com/reinhart-and-rogoff-admit-ex...
        
           | Brentward wrote:
           | I thought it was going to be the Excel DNA to date
           | conversion.
           | 
           | https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/6/21355674/human-genes-
           | renam...
        
           | teachrdan wrote:
           | I love that the grad student who caught it came from a
           | Marxist-oriented economics program. He legit figured it out
           | by trying to replicate the results published by Reinhart and
           | Rogoff.
           | 
           | Not-so-fun fact: Economists don't publish their actual Excel
           | spreadsheets, which would have made their error trivial to
           | prove, but just the results!
           | 
           | https://inthesetimes.com/article/the-excel-error-heard-
           | round...
        
         | manvillej wrote:
         | what exactly is wire fraud?
         | 
         | it seems like its basically "If you get money from lying
         | electronically, go to jail"
        
           | alistairSH wrote:
           | That's the gist of it. It's basically a modernization of
           | previously existing mail fraud statutes.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mail_and_wire_fraud
        
         | theultdev wrote:
         | They _usually_ don 't use the wire fraud trick on academics
         | ever since they killed Aaron Swartz.
        
           | dumbo-octopus wrote:
           | Let us at least be truthful in our tactless descriptions of
           | history: he killed himself to avoid spending 6 months in low
           | security prison.
        
             | jstarfish wrote:
             | Now _you 're_ being dishonest. The 6-month sentence was a
             | plea deal he declined. It was a 35-50 year sentence if he
             | fought and lost all charges.
             | 
             | It remained to be seen if he were actually guilty.
             | 
             | > Carmen Ortiz, the federal prosecutor who hounded Aaron
             | Swartz in the months before his Friday suicide, has
             | released a statement arguing that "this office's conduct
             | was appropriate in bringing and handling this case." She
             | says that she recognized that Swartz's crimes were not
             | serious, and as a result she sought "an appropriate
             | sentence that matched the alleged conduct - a sentence that
             | we would recommend to the judge of six months in a low
             | security setting."
             | 
             | > That's funny because the press release her office
             | released in 2011 says that Swartz "faces up to 35 years in
             | prison, to be followed by three years of supervised
             | release, restitution, forfeiture and a fine of up to $1
             | million." And she apparently didn't think even that was
             | enough, because last year her office piled on even more
             | charges, for a theoretical maximum of more than 50 years in
             | jail.
             | 
             | https://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/01/17/aaron-
             | swa...
             | 
             | > Some have blithely said Aaron should just have taken a
             | deal. This is callous. There was great practical risk to
             | Aaron from pleading to any felony. Felons have trouble
             | getting jobs, aren't allowed to vote (though that right may
             | be restored) and cannot own firearms (though Aaron wasn't
             | the type for that, anyway). More particularly, the court is
             | not constrained to sentence as the government suggests.
             | Rather, the probation department drafts an advisory
             | sentencing report recommending a sentence based on the
             | guidelines. The judge tends to rely heavily on that
             | "neutral" report in sentencing. If Aaron pleaded to a
             | misdemeanor, his potential sentence would be capped at one
             | year, regardless of his guidelines calculation. However, if
             | he plead guilty to a felony, he could have been sentenced
             | to as many as 5 years, despite the government's agreement
             | not to argue for more. Each additional conviction would
             | increase the cap by 5 years, though the guidelines
             | calculation would remain the same. No wonder he didn't want
             | to plead to 13 felonies. Also, Aaron would have had to
             | swear under oath that he committed a crime, something he
             | did not actually believe.
             | 
             | https://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/01/towards-
             | learning-...
        
               | theultdev wrote:
               | Thank you for detailing exactly what happened.
               | 
               | The intimidation of the stacked charges led to Swartz's
               | suicide.
               | 
               | The gov. was 100% responsible for his death, which is why
               | I say they killed him, indirectly, but they still caused
               | the anguish that made him feel like suicide was the only
               | way out.
               | 
               | Sadly this strategy is used all too often on citizens,
               | plea deal offered to say "look they pleaded guilty, we
               | were right", otherwise you get the stick, life in jail.
        
               | dumbo-octopus wrote:
               | > The gov. was 100% responsible for his death
               | 
               | Not if you believe in personal accountability. He made a
               | choice, he faced the consequences; he made a choice
               | again, he faced those consequences. If I kill a man and
               | am given a very long sentence, then kill myself to avoid
               | the wait, it's not the government's fault I died.
        
               | ALittleLight wrote:
               | Ahh, "personal accountability" for the victims. It's the
               | victim's fault the government threatened them with
               | decades of imprisonment over a minor "crime".
               | 
               | Where is the personal accountability for the prosecutor?
               | 
               | There is a notion of reckless disregard for human life in
               | the law. If you are throwing bricks off an overpass just
               | for fun, you are still guilty of murder if you kill
               | someone - because you have reckless disregard for human
               | life even though you weren't trying to kill anyone.
               | 
               | Likewise, a prosecutor who threatens someone with decades
               | in prison for freely distributing academic material
               | displays a reckless disregard for human life. Even if the
               | prosecutor didn't intend to provoke a suicide the
               | prosecutor was doing something bad with a reckless
               | disregard for human life and it got someone killed.
               | That's murder, in my view.
               | 
               | Perhaps you should ask for accountability from the
               | prosecutor/murderer rather than from her victim.
        
               | dumbo-octopus wrote:
               | > The 6-month sentence was a plea deal he declined.
               | 
               | Right, so he could have picked the option where he walked
               | free in six months, but instead he picked the option
               | where he's dead.
               | 
               | > Felons have trouble getting jobs
               | 
               | > aren't allowed to vote
               | 
               | > and cannot own firearms
               | 
               | He's not doing any of those now, so I do not see how his
               | would-be restrictions are relevant. The following
               | speculation is just that, and also irrelevant.
               | 
               | > Aaron would have had to swear under oath that he
               | committed a crime, something he did not actually believe.
               | 
               | Ah yes, the "Sure I secretly entered the networking
               | cabinet of an institution I have no formal relationship
               | with, to install my personal equipment into it without
               | their knowledge (much less consent) in order to exploit
               | their access levels to fulfill personal objectives that
               | would otherwise be impossible to me, then hopped around
               | IP's as the institution I was stealing documents from
               | blocked the IP I was stealing until the entire IP range
               | of the institution whose access I was hijacking was
               | blocked due to my hacking and hence all the researchers
               | doing legitimate work at that institution could not
               | access the resources they paid for, but how could I have
               | known that was unlawful?? I fundamentally cannot accept
               | any blame for my actions." defense. I don't buy it.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | I think it's fair to say that attributing suicide is not
               | something that can be done in anything but shades of
               | grey, and that everyone in this thread appears to be
               | trying to be truthful and honest.
        
             | sevg wrote:
             | Before you complain that a comment is a tactless
             | description of history that distorts the truth, you should
             | perhaps try learning some of the facts about said history.
             | Such a habit will serve you well, I promise :)
        
               | dumbo-octopus wrote:
               | Did he or did he not reject a plea deal that would have
               | had him walking a free man in 6 months time?
        
               | ALittleLight wrote:
               | Even the concept of a plea deal is morally atrocious in
               | this and similar cases. The government threatens you with
               | decades in prison in hopes of bullying you into pleading
               | guilty where you are not.
               | 
               | 6 months in prison is extremely inappropriate for what he
               | was accused of. Threatening far worse to compel someone
               | to accept a sentence they don't deserve is a crime orders
               | of magnitude worse than anything Swartz was accused of.
        
             | ykonstant wrote:
             | Emetic.
        
             | ALittleLight wrote:
             | "I was just telling this guy I was going to take away his
             | life, lock him in a cage for decades, and force him to live
             | with violent criminals in a place notorious for violence
             | and rape as punishment for his victimless 'crime' - and
             | then _he_ killed _himself_. "
        
         | raincom wrote:
         | Feds don't prosecute the stuff their own tribe is involved in.
         | Once retired, federal bureaucrats become honorary professors,
         | chairs, fellows at 'X school of international
         | studies/government', 'Y school of comparative law', 'Z school
         | of efficient administration'. All such schools are hotbeds for
         | govt spies, other folks. Where and how do these schools get
         | money from? They use the same techniques that this
         | neuroscientist uses. Once they open a front, charging academic
         | fraud in the name of wire fraud charge, etc, if they succeed in
         | doing that, expect the next round to be after these sinecure
         | schools and their fundings, when power structures change.
        
           | profsummergig wrote:
           | "Director of Strategy at Georgetown's Center for Security and
           | Emerging Technology"
           | 
           | https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-board-set-
           | ba...
        
           | __loam wrote:
           | This seems like needlessly conspiratorial thinking.
        
           | huitzitziltzin wrote:
           | This is a deeply uninformed comment. I don't even know where
           | to start. Nearly every sentence is wrong.
           | 
           | You can absolutely get hauled in front of a judge for fraud
           | and abuse in the use of NIH grants. You can be required to
           | pay all of the money back, among other punishments. Google
           | will reveal a variety of cases.
           | 
           | It is in fact rare for retired federal bureaucrats to become
           | professors. It is much more common for people at the
           | Secretary level to get _teaching_ positions at schools of
           | public policy. I am not aware of any former CIA directors
           | holding those roles but I invite you to look.
           | 
           | These schools are not "hotbeds of spies" - truly that it is a
           | completely uninformed statement.
           | 
           | By the way, very few law professors work via grants and even
           | fewer via NIH grants.
        
           | chiggsy wrote:
           | >Feds don't prosecute the stuff their own tribe is involved
           | in
           | 
           | I get it. The world is complex, and grouping helps make it
           | more manageable. However, in no way are the "Feds," part of
           | the same tribe, especially in 2023.
           | 
           | >All such schools are hotbeds for govt spies, other folks.
           | 
           | Maybe recruitment? I'm not familiar with the curriculum at
           | USC. Seems like you'd get them when they finished their
           | degrees, unless they offer "wetwork" as an elective.
           | 
           | >They use the same techniques that this neuroscientist uses.
           | 
           | Disagree. Whatever tribe or faction these people you describe
           | belong to, they are definitely not publishing papers. They'd
           | be administrators. They are not involved in prosecuting
           | academic malfeasance, and certainly the prosecution, is not
           | taking advice from retired government employees. He/she/they
           | have their own careers to consider!
        
         | ak_111 wrote:
         | Where do you draw the line? I saw many funding proposals for
         | extremely abstract category theory justified on the basis it
         | helps number theorists solve problems related to cryptography
         | and protect e-commerce. Between friends everyone knows this is
         | not true. Am not against abstract research: given how cheap it
         | is, I don't understand why we can just allow it to be funded
         | without having to provide justification that makes everyone
         | feel a bit of a criminal while writing the proposal. It should
         | be seen sort of how we public commissions art.
         | 
         | Another type of mini-fraud: you could say almost 80% of applied
         | machine learning papers contain serious methodical mistakes
         | that are almost equivalent to falsifying data, and what's worse
         | the authors are well aware of and even the reviewers. I am
         | talking about the kaggle-type ones where you apply some kind of
         | PCA or neural network on some relatively small dataset.
        
           | rdedev wrote:
           | It's kind of sad that you need to jump through a lot of hoops
           | for research funding but when talking about things like
           | military funding everyone is ready to find it more than
           | required and not ask too many questions
        
             | golergka wrote:
             | Because it actually is? I don't understand how one can
             | compare abstract research into category theory and
             | investment into millions of people not getting killed and
             | conquered and get sad that the latter comes up on top.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | We're not talking about Saddam's military budget, we're
               | talking about the one they used to kill and conquer him.
        
               | nickff wrote:
               | Saddam Hussein started the Iran-Iraq war, in which Iraq
               | achieved no significant gain, at the cost of between one
               | and two million lives. This war took place in the middle
               | of his 40-year tenure as a president who killed hundreds
               | of thousands of his own people with the same military
               | equipment.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | How is that an argument in favor of military spending?
        
               | hindsightbias wrote:
               | It would almost sound like a noble motivation for all
               | that shock-and-awe spending, except that wasn't the
               | motivation.
               | 
               | Nobody cared when he was actually killing Iranians or
               | domestics. Back then, kids of exiled Shah-regimers were
               | protesting US gov't support for Iraq (widely reported
               | overseas, widely ignored in the US) at colleges in CA,
               | Michigan and Texas and getting beat up for their trouble.
               | 
               | Plus we were rolling in all that $15/b oil with the
               | flooded oil market so domestic win-win. Except for all
               | those oilmen in TX who went bust. Well, they voted for
               | Ron, so I guess they got what they wanted.
        
               | cycomanic wrote:
               | Yes and who was supplying the weapons and other support
               | during that time? Arguably defence spending in the US and
               | western Europe directly contributed to the deaths.
        
               | rurp wrote:
               | There is a _lot_ of defense spending that does nothing to
               | support that mission, or does so in a terribly
               | inefficient way. Given the scale of spending we 're
               | talking about, many billions of dollars get wasted every
               | year, but folks who get worked up over a few million
               | wasted on research are often unconcerned with 1000 times
               | more wasteful projects as long as they have the military
               | labeled slapped on them.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | If we had a social norm against pretending abstract research
           | would "enable the creation of new materials, advance quantum
           | computing, and enhance the security of your bank account" the
           | agencies would learn to fund it anyway, because they would
           | realize you run out of applied directions in the absence of
           | basic research. Right now it's all laundered, so they think
           | they can fund far more applied research than is available.
        
             | jltsiren wrote:
             | We used to have a social norm like that. It eroded, because
             | populist politicians started ridiculing research proposals
             | they found frivolous. Now most proposals are riddled with
             | fake justifications, because people wanted more
             | accountability in how tax money is spent.
        
               | heyjamesknight wrote:
               | Some of that blame should be pointed at those that
               | proliferated frivolous and ridiculous research proposals.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Some of that blame should be pointed at those that
               | proliferated frivolous and ridiculous research proposals_
               | 
               | There are fewer of these than you'd think. Modeling
               | wobbling plates is easier mocked than done, for example.
        
               | nvm0n2 wrote:
               | Who were these "populist politicians" exactly? I don't
               | remember any of them ever talking about university
               | research.
               | 
               | It'd actually be great to have some politicians who
               | ridicule frivolous academic research. It's not like
               | there's a shortage of it especially in the humanities and
               | social sciences (where there's no such thing as basic
               | research anyway). Alas, their attentions are all
               | elsewhere.
        
               | omginternets wrote:
               | >where there's no such thing as basic research anyway
               | 
               | Did you mean "applied research"?
               | 
               | >It's not like there's a shortage of it especially in the
               | humanities and social sciences (where there's no such
               | thing as basic research anyway).
               | 
               | Careful where you cast stones, my friend. There is a lot
               | of bullshit in software engineering, too.
               | 
               |  _Gestures towards pile of discarded JS frameworks..._
        
               | rplst8 wrote:
               | Was the development of those JS frameworks funded with
               | federal tax dollars?
        
               | omginternets wrote:
               | That's a separate point (and we'd be largely in
               | agreement, I suspect).
               | 
               | In fact, I'm sure you've noticed the heaps of government-
               | funded software trash.
        
               | omginternets wrote:
               | At the risk of being controversial, the latter half of
               | your statement tracks very well with my experience of
               | organizational DEI initiatives, in particular. We have
               | reached a point where tenure-track faculty are expected
               | to provide justification, in writing, for the value of
               | their research to various marginalized communities. That
               | alone wouldn't be a huge deal if conference talks,
               | research funding and, increasingly, tenure committees
               | weren't being similarly pressed to provide these kinds of
               | justification.
               | 
               | From where I'm standing (I hold a Ph.D in a scientific
               | field, and my spouse is a tenure-track academic), an
               | unsustainable portion of academic work consists in
               | justifying one's research program, _on grounds that have
               | little to do with the subject of study._
               | 
               | It should hopefully be obvious that I'm not trying to
               | stir a DEI flame war. Rather, I can't shake the feeling
               | that DEI activism isn't accomplishing much beyond
               | creating bureaucraty, and that this benefits neither
               | research in general, nor marginalized groups trying to
               | establish themselves in academia.
               | 
               | Anyway, this seems like a specific instance of a larger
               | trend you're pointing to. Possibly not even the largest
               | or most absurd one.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | It's difficult to tell where the initiatives are coming
               | from because the willingness to write _and accept_ empty
               | claims of relevance appears to exist at all levels and
               | stages in the process. (For both DEI and  "questionably
               | applied number theory.") If they are getting that little
               | buy-in from even the administrators I can't imagine how
               | they get there in the first place.
               | 
               | It's like the same people put application and social
               | consciousness first in their RFPs and then turn around to
               | accept invisible fig leaves during evaluation... Who's
               | getting fooled, the government? Politicians? The public?
        
               | omginternets wrote:
               | >It's difficult to tell where the initiatives are coming
               | from because the willingness to write and accept empty
               | claims of relevance appears to exist at all levels and
               | stages in the process.
               | 
               | Is it, though? In the case of DEI, it appears to me (on
               | the surface, anyway) that these initiatives are being
               | implemented at the request of very vocal special-interest
               | groups, and at the orders of the politicians who
               | represent them. It seems like a fairly straightforward
               | case of lobbying by institutions whose existence depends
               | on the existence of a social problem. It's a rough analog
               | to Eisenhower's Military-Industrial Complex idea.
               | 
               | The same is true with what you call "questionably applied
               | number theory". The only difference is that special-
               | interest group isn't defined along ethno-racial lines,
               | but instead comprises various bean-counters and ad-men
               | who sell various forms of investment.
               | 
               | In my view, there used to be a consensus that such
               | lobbyists were not welcome in universities, or at least
               | not in droves, because of their tendency to subvert
               | intellectual pursuits in favor of short-term profits.
        
       | louwrentius wrote:
       | Feels to me the risk of discovery is deemed so low that it is
       | cultural/ systemic. How many other cases will be uncovered?
       | 
       | But speaking to Science anonymously, four former members of
       | Zlokovic's lab say the anomalies the whistleblowers found are no
       | accident. They describe a culture of intimidation, in which he
       | regularly pushed them and others in the lab to adjust data. Two
       | of them said he sometimes had people change lab notebooks after
       | experiments were completed to ensure they only contained the
       | desired results. "There were clear examples of him instructing
       | people to manipulate data to fit the hypothesis," one of the lab
       | members says.
       | 
       | The incentives are clear to me, but punishment is less of a
       | deterrent than good incentives, but which incentives would reduce
       | this allegedly fraudulent behavior?
        
       | thenerdhead wrote:
       | "Medicine is broken. We like to imagine that it's based on
       | evidence and the results of fair tests. In reality, those tests
       | are often profoundly flawed." - Ben Goldacre
        
         | suoduandao3 wrote:
         | I think we have an inflated respect for modern medicine because
         | it gets a lot of the credit for health outcomes we actually owe
         | to modern sanitation.
        
         | u32480932048 wrote:
         | "Never trust a drug that hasn't been on the market for at least
         | 30 years"
         | 
         | - Samuel Shem's "The Fat Man" character(IIRC)
        
       | shever73 wrote:
       | An example of what Charlie Munger would have called "the power of
       | incentives to cause rationalized, terrible behavior".
        
         | mnode wrote:
         | In this case perverse incentives. Check out 'How not to study a
         | disease: the story of Alzheimer's' (by Karl Herrup) for a
         | perspective on why this is not at all surprising.
         | 
         | That being said, I think it would be unfair to tarnish all of
         | science with this brush though. There are many fields that
         | don't suffer these problems nearly as much.
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | I like that quote a lot. Incentives scale.
        
       | Eumenes wrote:
       | From the inside, researchers/scientists see this as a non-issue.
       | A few bad apples. From the outside, the public sees this as a
       | systemic problem. Theranos, failed promises of covid vaccine
       | efficacy, to mask or not mask, polyunsaturated fats are bad for
       | you .. no wait, they're good for you.
       | 
       | Science has a PR problem and like it or not, science needs the
       | support of society at large to succeed and move forward.
        
         | mhb wrote:
         | That's the opposite of what the "few bad apples" expression is
         | intended to mean.
        
         | light_hue_1 wrote:
         | > From the inside, researchers/scientists see this as a non-
         | issue. A few bad apples.
         | 
         | What "inside" are you in?
         | 
         | I don't see this as a non-issue as a scientist. It's a massive
         | problem. It means that when I read papers, I'm constantly
         | extremely suspicious of the results.`
        
           | wddkcs wrote:
           | If it is widely perceived as a massive problem, why are there
           | no moves to change the system? The intransigence shows there
           | is no recognition of the problem, or the perverse incentives
           | prevent change, which is the same problem at another level.
        
             | bumby wrote:
             | Upton Sinclair said, "It is difficult to get a man to
             | understand something when his salary depends upon his not
             | understanding it."
             | 
             | This applies to multiple levels in the publication game.
             | Lab grants would likely dry up if the size of the problem
             | was revealed to be massive. Publications would lose
             | credibility, prestige, and money if the problem proved
             | large. It can be recognized as a problem by those who's
             | salaries don't depend on it, but still remain unchanged
             | because those in the best position to change it have
             | salaries that do.
        
           | Eumenes wrote:
           | I'm glad you think this is a big issue. I'd be curious to see
           | polling around the level of trust scientists have in the
           | integrity of the system. I doubt its below 50% approval.
        
             | InSteady wrote:
             | To be fair, 55-65% trust in the _integrity_ of scientific
             | research among scientists is still abysmal and indicates a
             | huge problem.
             | 
             | If we are talking about the number of scientists who see
             | flaws and hold skepticism, that's absolutely fine (I'd
             | argue the number could be much higher and be quite healthy
             | overall). But we are talking about integrity. Ethical
             | research, lack of fraud, lack of bias, lack of perverse
             | incentives, a system that produces high quality and
             | trustworthy output by design, etc.
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | I think the hard problem is that if science was direct, most of
         | the population - the majority, are either not intelligent
         | enough to understand it or not intelligent enough to understand
         | why it is that way.
         | 
         | Take masking for example, and here is a bomb most people are
         | totally unaware of:
         | 
         | You want the population to wear masks _so that the sick people
         | are wearing masks_. Masks aren 't going to do much to prevent
         | healthy people from getting sick. But they will do a lot to
         | stop sick people from getting others sick.
         | 
         | This truth is almost never communicated though. Why? Because
         | then wearing a mask becomes a "mark of illness" and nobody
         | wants to label themselves as sick or potentially sick. So the
         | solution to this is everyone wears a mask all the time. But you
         | cannot communicate this whole scenario either because most
         | people aren't smart enough to grasp it or not smart enough to
         | understand why they need to wear a mask healthy or sick.
         | 
         | So this is the kind of problem science faces, and frankly I
         | think the best thing to do is exactly what they did: Insinuate
         | that wearing a mask protects you and insist everyone wear a
         | mask.
        
           | confd wrote:
           | This way of thinking falls apart as soon as the people who
           | are capable of effectively communicating the truth (or at
           | least, gesturing toward evidence that the dominant narrative
           | is being falsified) reach those who are believed to be
           | incapable of comprehending the truth (or at least, the
           | evidence that suggests that the dominant narrative is being
           | falsified).
        
           | abnry wrote:
           | > This truth is almost never communicated though. Why?
           | Because then wearing a mask becomes a "mark of illness" and
           | nobody wants to label themselves as sick or potentially sick.
           | So the solution to this is everyone wears a mask all the
           | time. But you cannot communicate this whole scenario either
           | because most people aren't smart enough to grasp it or not
           | smart enough to understand why they need to wear a mask
           | healthy or sick.
           | 
           | I can't help but think this attitude is awful. Most people
           | are too dumb to understand that it is the sick people who
           | should wear masks!? Like what in the world!?
           | 
           | No. You shoot straight with the public. Then you plead with
           | them to do what is best for everyone by wearing a mask when
           | they are sick.
           | 
           | The alternative, as you suggested, is extremely damaging to
           | society longterm.
        
       | DanielleMolloy wrote:
       | Many destructive behaviours are rewarded in a system that is
       | putting emphasis on the quantity and proposed impact of
       | publications. Many scientific fields suffer from behaviours of
       | individuals who are more interested in social status (or just
       | economic security) than in seeking truth. Just like in overall
       | society the humble truth seekers necessary for slowly chiseling
       | out the firm ground of solid knowledge are in the minority. They
       | are definitely disadvantaged in this system, and more likely to
       | be driven out than those who lie, rush or cut corners.
       | 
       | At the modern complexity and importance of science, we do need to
       | put much more emphasis on checking whether it is done right. The
       | original vision of the Royal Society involved rigorous peer
       | review, to the point of demanding scientists to demonstrate their
       | experiments in front of their peers:
       | https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/17th-ce...
       | The curator of these literal peer reviews held the first paid
       | position in science.
       | 
       | Journals do have the profits to hire or otherwise pay peer
       | reviewers full time. They would become experts in their field in
       | the process, and thus more suited for the task than the ones in
       | the current system, where even undergrads are asked to review for
       | high-profile outlets like NeurIPS. Also, full-time rigorous peer
       | reviewing would be an interesting career prospect for many
       | current scientists. And here is your startup idea..
        
         | jampekka wrote:
         | Rigorous peer review, let alone paid (which causes its own
         | issues beyond money), is totally infeasible with the current
         | publication pressure. It's hard to find reviewers even with the
         | current lax criteria of both reviewers and quality of their
         | review (the latter is more problematic).
         | 
         | The publication volume is just way way way too high. But
         | researchers who don't publish multiple articles per year,
         | regardless if you have anything of value to publish, perish. If
         | you don't churn out paper-per-year in your PhD, you don't get
         | the PhD.
         | 
         | Much of the manuscripts that get submitted to journals are
         | incredibly bad. Most are just bad. But as both editor and
         | reviewer, I usually let them be published out of pity if the
         | stuff isn't blatantly wrong; the poor PhD student's whole
         | career is on the line.
         | 
         | Journals being full of crap is not SO bad within science
         | because everybody knows they are full of crap. But if an
         | "outsider" thinks that being published in a peer-reviewed
         | journal, even a "good" journal, means that the article isn't
         | crap, it can be literally life-or-death (like in this case).
         | 
         | Academia is broken because it's being run as a business whose
         | purpose is to churn out papers. Welcome to neoliberalism.
        
           | cscheid wrote:
           | Although the above comment might sound negative and harsh, it
           | is a perfect distillation of modern research-oriented
           | academic environments. (I was a moderately-successful
           | professor in these environments. I woke up one day and simply
           | couldn't do it anymore.)
        
           | stanford_labrat wrote:
           | Publication rate DURING your PhD is highly variable from
           | field to field...I don't know what field you are in but
           | generally speaking across my 3 fields students are required
           | to have at least 1 from the entire PhD to graduate. Some even
           | have none published by time of graduation.
           | 
           | 1 per year is a ridiculous standard.
        
             | jampekka wrote:
             | This does vary across countries, and fields. In UK I was a
             | bit surprised that you're not expected to publish at all
             | before post-doc.
             | 
             | In Finland usually at least 3 peer reviewed (first author)
             | papers are required for a PhD in my field (cognitive
             | science). In some fields (e.g. many engineering fields)
             | even more. And PhD grants are typically for three to four
             | years.
             | 
             | It is ridiculous and the paper quality is what you'd
             | expect.
        
             | ska wrote:
             | It is wildly different, true. In some areas, it is not
             | uncommon to see PhD "thesis" that is essentially an intro
             | stapled to 3-4 papers.
             | 
             | It's also true that publication rates post PhD vary wildly
             | as well, e.g. expectations for a tenure packet.
             | 
             | However, it's also fair to say that expected publication
             | rate has significantly grown universally. A generation or
             | two ago, a solid career could be built on a handful of high
             | impact papers. That's hard to imagine now.
        
         | swatcoder wrote:
         | It's way way bigger than that. The whole world changed since
         | those early days of modern science.
         | 
         | During those days, the science you were talking about was one
         | of countless hobby clubs for aristocratic circles, where bored
         | rich folk could dedicate themselves to one upping each other in
         | the discovery game their peers and recent predecessors had
         | invented. There were certainly cheaters then, too, but the
         | whole thing was very insular and the only people who even cared
         | about it were the people who were in on the game themselves. So
         | excelling within the rules and elaborate demonstrations of the
         | game were all part of the club sport.
         | 
         | 400 years later, billions of people across five or six
         | generations have been told that this game is the secret to
         | human prosperity on earth and that the more its played, the
         | more aligned we'll be with the truth of the universe, the
         | longer we'll all live, the more leisure and luxury we'll all
         | enjoy, etc
         | 
         | That's a whole different game! The demand for scientific output
         | has gone from an exhibition sport shared among a small and
         | snobby circle to a replacement for an eroded theology. Trillion
         | dollar governments and globe-spanning trillion dollar
         | industries now (ostensibly) make their billion dollar decisions
         | based on each day's summary of the sport, and billions of
         | people dreaming about prosperity or salvation await the next
         | big game's result as though it were a demonstration of divine
         | grace.
         | 
         | There are now so many games being played, by so many people,
         | with so many bets and spectators, that incentives are
         | unfathomable and referees are sparse and cheating is rampant.
         | 
         | Unfortunately, you're not going to clean all that up by telling
         | some journals to reshuffle their revenue allocations.
        
           | wredue wrote:
           | Sorry but who actually thinks that being a scientist is the
           | "key to prosperity"?
           | 
           | I think far and away most scientists become researchers
           | despite the fact that it's generally not at all a prosperous
           | venture.
        
             | swatcoder wrote:
             | Not "being a scientist": "science".
             | 
             | Science is seen as the road to _human_ (not just personal)
             | propsperity by people educated in the last 100-ish years,
             | which is mostly everybody now, which puts _extreme_
             | pressure to perform /produce on what was once a pure little
             | hobby sport whose spectators were almost all invested as
             | players themselves.
        
             | starcraft2wol wrote:
             | Like journalism, they trade money for social status and
             | prestige.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | Maybe, but it's probably a relatively small circle that
               | elevates someone's status by being in academia. (Not to
               | say that isn't the circle whose opinions matter to them,
               | though).
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | Or just to do something that they are interested in. And
               | to have quite a bit of freedom.
        
               | starcraft2wol wrote:
               | After seeing that academics still have to take a "two
               | job" approach with serious research and fun research I'm
               | not convinced of this. Not to mention the very protracted
               | timelines to get to that stage of freedom.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | That depends on whether you accept the risk of having to
               | find another line of work. Depending on the place, you
               | can do almost anything you want even at PhD level. I've
               | been on a chain of grants, doing quite freely what I
               | want, for over a decade. But I accept it may break at any
               | point and then I'll just go do something else.
               | 
               | After PhD there will be nobody telling, and often not
               | even caring, what to do. But that may mean that you don't
               | get your PhD or you don't get another grant to live on.
               | If you get a tenure it almost literally means that you
               | can't be fired even if you do nothing at all. What is
               | surprising is that almost all with tenure keep running
               | the rat race even though they don't really get anything
               | at least material out of it.
               | 
               | (Nitpick: I think serious research is the fun one. The
               | one churned to get another grant is neither serious nor
               | fun.)
        
               | starcraft2wol wrote:
               | How did you get a position without a postdoc?
               | 
               | > After PhD there will be nobody telling, and often not
               | even caring, what to do.
               | 
               | If you make the hiring cut in you're in for about 5 years
               | of grunt work and committees as an assistant prof, right?
               | 
               | By "serious research" I mean the one they do for career
               | advancement and hiring.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | > How did you get a position without a postdoc?
               | 
               | I am a postdoc, just have been for quite a while (on four
               | different grants at least). In Finnish academia it's not
               | that uncommon to stay a postdoc even until retirement.
               | 
               | > That's not true. If you make the hiring cut in you're
               | in for about 5 years of grunt work as an assistant prof.
               | 
               | For teaching and admin yes. But at least in fields I
               | know, what research you do or whether you do at all is
               | all up to you. Of course the risk is that you'll be
               | unemployed after the assistant prof. term ends. My point
               | is that if you don't care about that, you're quite free
               | to do whatever research-wise.
        
             | feoren wrote:
             | Science and the advancement of technology is literally the
             | only thing that has ever led to lasting prosperity for
             | humans. All other periods of prosperity over the last ten
             | thousand years have been temporary and highly localized.
             | You can lose your golden age of prosperity through a single
             | assassination. Only science breaks the wheel.
             | 
             | If you factor in all future humans in your utility
             | calculations, then science is by far the #1 noblest pursuit
             | humans can ever undertake. We're talking about scientific
             | advancements potentially helping _trillions_ of people
             | before all is said and heat-deathed. Great works of art can
             | also be enjoyed by all future humans, but science has a
             | super-linear (if not actually exponential) growth curve
             | where every advancement makes future advancements a little
             | easier.
             | 
             | The question is whether the noble pursuit of "science" and
             | the day-to-day activities of "being a scientist" have
             | diverged or not. There is mounting evidence that _the
             | institution_ of science has been subverted to the extent
             | that many people who are professional scientists are not
             | actually contributing to the pursuit of science. Or, far
             | worse, detracting from it, as we see here. It 's one of the
             | great tragedies of our era.
        
               | fock wrote:
               | > Science and the advancement of technology is literally
               | the only thing that has ever led to lasting prosperity
               | for humans. All other periods of prosperity over the last
               | ten thousand years have been temporary and highly
               | localized. You can lose your golden age of prosperity
               | through a single assassination. Only science breaks the
               | wheel.
               | 
               | How exactly do you know this civilization will not crash
               | too? (and take with it that highly localized habitat)
        
               | PH95VuimJjqBqy wrote:
               | That was exactly my question when I read that quote too.
               | 
               | Everything is temporary on a large enough scale and
               | everyone w/i that golden era also thought it would last
               | and that belief is part of why it didn't.
               | 
               | Humans will never build anything that truly lasts for a
               | very simple reason. The lessons learned get forgotten
               | after 2 generations (3 at most). Stop and consider how
               | the US fought for its freedom and how nowadays many
               | people from the US would vote to have more limitations on
               | speech.
        
               | feoren wrote:
               | > The lessons learned get forgotten after 2 generations
               | (3 at most).
               | 
               | What are you talking about? Did we all forget the
               | Pythagorean Theorem after 3 generations? Did we forget
               | the force-multiplying effect of levers and pullies a few
               | generations after Archimedes died? How can you sit here
               | with Wikipedia at your fingertips and tell me that the
               | collective sum of humanity remembers nothing from over
               | 100 years ago?
               | 
               | > everyone w/i that golden era also thought it would last
               | and that belief is part of why it didn't
               | 
               | Yet from almost every collapsed golden era, scientific
               | progress from that era made its way back to collective
               | knowledge (sometimes very slowly, admittedly). People in
               | this modern age have this extremely simplified view of
               | what "collapse" actually looked like.
        
               | feoren wrote:
               | Which civilization? The U.S.? That might slow science
               | down, but it would not significantly reverse progress on
               | it. Of course nations/kingdoms/empires/civilizations wax
               | and wane, but you can't use the word "too" if you're
               | talking about a total worldwide collapse of human
               | civilization as a single event -- such a thing has never
               | happened. If your point is that a Chicxulub or a worst-
               | case Wyoming Supervolcano could outmatch the progress
               | that science has made, then: sure, what's your point?
               | 
               | The vast majority of established science will outlive
               | mere nations and petty politics. There are too many
               | copies of Wikipedia, too many printed textbooks and
               | encyclopedias, to lose a significant portion of
               | established science. The possibility of worldwide
               | humanity-destroying events does not disprove this at all.
               | In fact, if we ever faced a humanity-destroying event,
               | then it would be nothing less than our collective
               | scientific progress that would have any chance of seeing
               | us through it.
        
               | wredue wrote:
               | Every institution is exploited to some degree.
               | 
               | What do you mean by many? As an institution, I sincerely
               | doubt that science is exploited to a similar degree as
               | basically any others.
               | 
               | I don't really accept these ridiculous trumpisms. "Many
               | people are saying".
               | 
               | How many people are *doing*? I'll wager it's far and away
               | a major minority.
               | 
               | Can you back up your "many" with actual numbers as a
               | percentage of investment?
        
               | feoren wrote:
               | > I sincerely doubt that science is exploited to a
               | similar degree as basically any others.
               | 
               | The world being shitty in other ways does not diminish
               | the tragedy that we are only a fraction of how effective
               | we could be at pursuing science.
               | 
               | > Can you back up your "many" with actual numbers as a
               | percentage of investment?
               | 
               | "A 2011 analysis by researchers with pharmaceutical
               | company Bayer found that, at most, a quarter of Bayer's
               | in-house findings replicated the original results."
               | 
               | "In a 2012 paper, C. Glenn Begley, a biotech consultant
               | working at Amgen, and Lee Ellis, a medical researcher at
               | the University of Texas, found that only 11% of 53 pre-
               | clinical cancer studies had replications that could
               | confirm conclusions from the original studies"
               | 
               | "The ... paper examined the reproducibility rates and
               | effect sizes by journal and discipline. Study replication
               | rates were 23% for the Journal of Personality and Social
               | Psychology, 48% for Journal of Experimental Psychology:
               | Learning, Memory, and Cognition, and 38% for
               | Psychological Science"
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis
               | 
               | > I don't really accept these ridiculous trumpisms. "Many
               | people are saying".
               | 
               | I didn't say "many people are saying", and comparing me
               | to Trump is a much greater insult than things comments
               | get flagged and removed for. Respond to what I actually
               | said and avoid the (extreme) personal insults.
        
           | jampekka wrote:
           | The rot has set in relatively lately, but is getting
           | exponentially worse. Probably still in the 1990's or even
           | early 2000's (depending on the field) an academic could have
           | had a fine career publishing (a good paper) every few years.
           | Or write a (good) book or two in their whole career.
           | 
           | I did my PhD under a professor who was very respected and
           | influential in his field. He published quite rarely, although
           | he had piles of manuscripts that would have passed review but
           | he didn't find them worthy. And refused to have his name on
           | his lab's papers if he didn't feel like he contributed enough
           | (nowadays many/most professors who won't even read the paper
           | require them to be added as an author).
           | 
           | In the current system he would have no chance in academia. He
           | said so himself. As has Peter Higgs:
           | https://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/06/peter-
           | higgs-...
        
             | PH95VuimJjqBqy wrote:
             | The professor sounds like a man of class.
             | 
             | As I was reading the article I got to the part where the
             | whistleblowers accused zlokovic of pressuring them to
             | change data.
             | 
             | If you changed data then you're also responsible. Every one
             | of those whistleblowers should have refused.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | In my experience a lot of older professors are like this,
               | likely because it wasn't yet about counting papers for
               | them to get their tenures (other games were involved for
               | sure).
               | 
               | I agree they should have refused. I hope I would in their
               | situation.
        
           | concinds wrote:
           | I think you underestimate the possibility of cultural change
           | happening from the top. It's in fact a very common way to
           | achieve cultural change.
        
           | Balgair wrote:
           | > where bored rich folk could dedicate themselves to one
           | upping each other in the discovery game their peers and
           | recent predecessors had invented. There were certainly
           | cheaters then, too, but the whole thing was very insular and
           | the only people who even cared about it were the people who
           | were in on the game themselves. So excelling within the rules
           | and elaborate demonstrations of the game were all part of the
           | club sport.
           | 
           | I see this meme about the early scientists a lot.
           | Unfortunately, these first early scientists are not so easily
           | categorized. I would encourage others to delve into the
           | biographies of these progenitors. It is true, some were
           | _very_ much in the vein of this meme. But many were much more
           | complicated individuals.
           | 
           | For example, Darwin is about as blue blooded as it comes. Yet
           | _Origin of Species_ has a very long section at the beginning
           | where Darwin painstakingly goes over all the scientists
           | before him that that in any small way had already discovered
           | evolution.
           | 
           | Another good one is that while digging potatoes with his
           | hands at the family farm in his native New Zealand,
           | Rutherford got the news that he had been awarded a
           | scholarship to study physics at Cambridge under William
           | Thomson (Lord Kelvin).
           | 
           | Many other scientists came from very 'low' births. But
           | science is a 'strong-chain' domain where only the 'correct'
           | ideas survive. Anyone can, and did, contribute despite those
           | obstacles.
        
         | hibikir wrote:
         | It's not necessarily even status, just feeding themselves:
         | Publish or die, and you aren't publishing if your conclusions
         | aren't positive and strong.
         | 
         | In medicine it's especially tough, as testing is among the most
         | expensive and the number of available data points is quite low,
         | so one gets to fignt over individual data points that make a
         | difference. Did this person not follow the protocol, and I have
         | a paper, or not?
         | 
         | I've seen something similar when working in agriculture: Early
         | tests of new plant strains are low data, because a company will
         | start by testing so many experimental plants that it'd be
         | unaffordable to test them all very strongly. This makes people
         | really argue about single data points in those early tests. Was
         | this chunk of the field contaminated? Attacked by a wild
         | animal? But there at least the interest in fraud is small. If a
         | breeder gets a stinker through, it just goes into trials on the
         | other hemisphere, where it's planted in an order of magnitude
         | more fields, and therefore just lead to disappointment 6 months
         | later.
         | 
         | With medicine, the cost of replication is so high, and often
         | takes so many years, that it's not just that an honest mistake
         | is catastrophic, but that the difference in outcomes for the
         | person doing the curation is so high, one doesn't have to be
         | all that dishonest to make biased decisions that will lead to a
         | strong career.
        
           | BurningFrog wrote:
           | > _It 's not necessarily even status, just feeding
           | themselves: Publish or die, and you aren't publishing if your
           | conclusions aren't positive and strong._
           | 
           | The wider science needs to learn a lesson from the Economics
           | science: Incentives Matter. A lot.
        
             | jampekka wrote:
             | Much of the problem is that wider science has taken too
             | many lessons from economics.
             | 
             | Incentives matter a lot but creating incentives that work
             | is almost impossible.
             | 
             | Science used to run on ethics (like many other
             | professions). But we learned from economists that there are
             | no such thing, only utility (money) maximizers.
        
               | nvm0n2 wrote:
               | Incentives that work are easy. Do research in corporate
               | labs. That's all it takes. Now there is an incentive to
               | do work that replicates (because it is intended to be
               | used to build useful things), there are people
               | responsible for detecting and resolving fraud (managers),
               | they are incentivized to do so by a mix of carrots and
               | sticks some of them legal.
               | 
               | Fact is, corporate R&D doesn't have this relentless
               | problem with reproducibility. It's academic output that
               | does, because academics only care about getting a paper
               | published and don't expect that anyone will use their
               | results. Often they don't even make their code or data
               | available at all because it's not to their advantage for
               | others to be able to replicate their work, as that would
               | yield fewer papers. But this is all wrong. Science exists
               | to be used in technology, not for its own sake.
        
               | jampekka wrote:
               | There are corresponding responsibilities in academia.
               | Perhaps even more so. But like a business culture can,
               | and often does, rot the incentives and responsibilities,
               | so has the academic culture.
               | 
               | I've worked for two corporate labs and have collaborated
               | with several. There was less rigor if anything.
               | 
               | Corporate lab work is quite cozy and stable. In corporate
               | lab your job doesn't end if you don't (pretend) to get a
               | new major discovery every year. They don't make anything
               | available, often not even internally.
               | 
               | Science is about a lot more than technology.
        
         | mbreese wrote:
         | _> Also, full-time rigorous peer reviewing would be an
         | interesting career prospect for many current scientists. And
         | here is your startup idea.._
         | 
         | I don't know about this. (But I don't have any answers for the
         | question either).
         | 
         | If you're a full time peer reviewer, first, are you really a
         | peer? But more importantly, your motivations change. No longer
         | are you looking to try to see if the paper is worthy of
         | publishing or if it is sound; instead, your motivation is to
         | push through as many papers as possible. When getting paid
         | depends on approving papers, the quality will drop.
         | 
         | Maybe the problem is where the money exchange occurs. What
         | about if authors paid to have their paper reviewed, instead of
         | published? Currently, journals only get paid when a paper is
         | published. What about if they got paid to review the paper at
         | all? It would limit the paper submissions to
         | Nature/Science/Cell, but you'd be paying for a high quality
         | review (which often makes a paper better). You might even have
         | luck with decoupling reviewers from journals completely... make
         | the journals compete over the best (already) reviewed papers.
        
           | bumby wrote:
           | > _instead, your motivation is to push through as many papers
           | as possible._
           | 
           | I think this is an assumption that doesn't have to hold true
           | in practice. Maybe it's biased by the 'publish or perish'
           | paradigm that's pervaded academia, but there's no reason to
           | replicate the same problem elsewhere.
        
       | moralestapia wrote:
       | I support the (probably unpopular) opinion that scientific
       | fraudsters should face criminal consequences. People die because
       | of this, and the authors of these schemes go and get awards for
       | their "substantial contributions".
        
       | londons_explore wrote:
       | We shouldn't have any one scientist able to manipulate results
       | like this
       | 
       | When it comes to trials where the results matter (ie. for
       | approving a medecine), the blinding process should blind the
       | scientists doing the trial.
       | 
       | There should be a third party who will mix up the placebo and
       | real vials of treatments. The treatments should stay in a sealed
       | bags until used, and when used there should be two people in the
       | room recording anything that happens.
       | 
       | For treatments involving "inject this drug", the scientists,
       | investors, and anyone else with a horse in the race shouldn't
       | even be present.
        
         | noqc wrote:
         | I'm sure you've thought of how to keep the third party's
         | incentives clean? Not just organizationally, but down to the
         | man.
        
           | robertlagrant wrote:
           | That's why you need a _fourth_ party[0]!
           | 
           | [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zo9PqubWSg
        
           | londons_explore wrote:
           | I don't really see how the third party can manipulate
           | stuff...
           | 
           | The third party is told "please mix up these tubes randomly
           | and don't tell me how you mixed them".
           | 
           | Both the third party _and_ the scientists would need to be
           | dishonest for the scheme to break down.
        
       | CoastalCoder wrote:
       | Stories like this make me a smidge more sympathetic towards
       | people who were against coerced COVID vaccinations.
       | 
       | I.e., this supports the suspicion that policy makers who claim
       | "the science" supports certain policies are drawing on bad
       | information / compromised experts.
       | 
       | Note: I'm personally very pro-vaccine. I'm suggesting that we
       | treat academic misconduct according to the harm it could cause.
        
         | bradley13 wrote:
         | Ditto. I took all the vaccinations, but the reality is that the
         | testing of the vaccines was rushed. It was only in the real
         | world that we discovered that they could cause blood clots and
         | myocarditis.
         | 
         | The vaccinations were still a net benefit for COVID, but the
         | unexpected side effects have seriously damaged people's trust
         | in vaccines in general. We're going to pay the price for that
         | for decades to come.
        
           | fabian2k wrote:
           | You cannot see these kinds of very rare side effects in
           | typical phase III trials. Those trials are already pretty
           | large for vaccines, but even then they're simply not powerful
           | enough to detect very rare events. Nothing would have changed
           | here with the normal vaccination approval process, those side
           | effects would not have been detected there either. That's why
           | side effects are monitored after approval of the vaccines as
           | well, because then you have the large numbers you need to
           | detect very rare events.
        
           | callalex wrote:
           | The side effects you discuss are much more rare than the
           | harms caused by the disease itself.
        
             | iinnPP wrote:
             | I have three shots and zero covid.
             | 
             | See the problem?
             | 
             | People who believe they know what is best for any other
             | person are exclusively idiots.(not saying this is anyone in
             | particular)
             | 
             | Also, please don't suggest the shots did anything. I get
             | sick once per five years. It's plausible that the shots
             | helped but not definitive.
        
           | tensor wrote:
           | I think the anti-science sentiment was already there, and the
           | vaccine work for COVID being rushed was just an excuse for
           | people who had already decided that science was inconvenient
           | to become full on outspoken anti-science people.
        
       | newsclues wrote:
       | Science publications need to ensure reproducibility of research
       | before publishing.
       | 
       | There needs to be a journal dedicated to documenting
       | unreproducible science studies and papers.
       | 
       | The inability for scientists to police themselves is the death of
       | Science.
        
         | jampekka wrote:
         | This would require/requires a total overhaul of how the current
         | academia works. E.g. PhD would be unattainable with that
         | publication criteria. Tenure and funding criteria would have to
         | be totally overhauled.
         | 
         | I'm all for the overhaul of course. But it's not fixable solely
         | by publication criteria. In fact publishers benefit from poor
         | quality. The publisher system makes no sense and is actively
         | detrimtal to science and disseminating information.
        
       | fabian2k wrote:
       | > Several former lab members provided details of experimental
       | data from Zlokovic's lab that they say were falsified. These
       | included experiments referenced in the whistleblower dossier. In
       | some cases, they said, data points that would have invalidated
       | the desired results were removed. "It was not real science. He
       | already knew what he wanted to say" before the experiment was
       | completed, one says. "I started hating science. ... It made me
       | sick."
       | 
       | > Two of the insiders also say Zlokovic sometimes had his team
       | improperly alter existing notebooks. Normally these notebooks--in
       | which scientists record details of their work as it proceeds--
       | provide a ground truth for an experiment's methods and results.
       | As a result, they're also often central to misconduct
       | investigations.
       | 
       | > But two of the former lab members say that after an experiment
       | was completed and its results published, Zlokovic sometimes
       | admonished his scientists to make sure the notebooks were
       | "clean." That was understood to mean pasting into them printouts
       | of the published results and methodology or omitting contrary
       | details that challenged the paper's conclusions. Zlokovic
       | explained that those changes were needed in case of an "audit,"
       | according to the two scientists.
       | 
       | Those allegations are pretty damning if they are true. Falsifying
       | lab notebooks is very obvious scientific misconduct, and there
       | are no benign explanations for that.
        
         | nerdponx wrote:
         | > scientific misconduct
         | 
         | At what point do we just call it "lying" and "fraud"?
        
           | dist-epoch wrote:
           | At no point, because that would increase distrust in science.
           | 
           | Trust scientists, even when they lie and cheat, they do it
           | for a higher purpose that the general public can't
           | understand.
        
             | macinjosh wrote:
             | Science (with a capital S) is the modern incarnation of the
             | church. They have special knowledge, special privilege,
             | special language that the average person can't understand
             | (like the church had Latin). We are supposed to listen and
             | trust lest we be damned.
             | 
             | I think its time for a reformation.
        
               | acdha wrote:
               | This is a terrible hot take. Science is no more immune to
               | human misbehavior than any other institution but it has
               | self-correction as a core principle. This guy is going
               | down due to it, not getting shuffled off to another
               | diocese. Many people would like that process to be faster
               | but it's doing better than most other areas of our
               | society because there are so many people who do
               | prioritize truth over personal loyalty or institutional
               | reputation.
        
           | ramraj07 wrote:
           | It is literally the same but a more refined term. Just like
           | calling something distended instead of fat.
        
         | Log_out_ wrote:
         | Science needs grant rewards for whistle blowers?
        
           | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
           | That's probably part of it. Science needs an incentive
           | rethink overall.
        
       | codekilla wrote:
       | Peer (or any type of institutional) review needs to be
       | implemented at the national level--same as the funding for the
       | original research. Why would you pay for research and not check
       | that it is correct? Congress needs to fund a new science agency
       | that explicitly does this. I have suggested before that part of
       | graduate training should be replicating select studies that are
       | published (a national review board could select those that seem
       | the most high impact). State-funded schools could take this on,
       | and students would probably learn at least as much doing this as
       | they do in their other studies.
        
         | bumby wrote:
         | What about all the funding that's not done at a national level?
         | There's still a large amount of research funding that is
         | private.
        
           | codekilla wrote:
           | Sure, and that's on the private funders to ensure they are
           | getting what they pay for. Google pays for plenty of research
           | --since they are the payee, it's their responsibility to
           | ensure it's accuracy to whatever degree satisfies them.
           | Institutions like the FDA are supposed to regulate private
           | research when it comes to market (.i.e pharmaceuticals and
           | the like). Whether or not the FDA and related agencies are
           | effective is a different, but just as important question.
           | Taxpayers desperately need a formal, funded system to verify
           | the science they are paying for--particularly for biomedical
           | research where the incentives for fraud are so high.
        
             | bumby wrote:
             | I think that's reasonable for the "institutional review"
             | aspect of the OP. But regarding the "peer review" aspect, I
             | don't think it works, at least in the bulk of the current
             | framework. Peer-review is typically performed by separate
             | organizations, independent of the funding organization. To
             | expect a national-level organization to essentially take
             | over the duties of peer-review journals is a very big ask
             | (not in small part because the current system benefits from
             | free labor from the reviewers).
        
               | codekilla wrote:
               | > To expect a national-level organization to essentially
               | take over the duties of peer-review journals is a very
               | big ask
               | 
               | Fair, but what is the alternative that would actually
               | work? What is the budget of all of the journals compared
               | to the NSF+NIH? Is medical research that is true, and
               | certainly actionable worth as much as an F whatever
               | fighter jet? People will have to decide.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | The tradeoff is a different arguement and a digression,
               | so while it's likely we agree, I'll side-step it here. I
               | do think it's an uphill battle to pursue a massive
               | reappropriation of funds though.
               | 
               | There are some alternatives that I'm aware of. Here's a
               | few:
               | 
               | 1) One is to allow journals to focus on less-than-great
               | results. Right now the focus is on novelty, so there is
               | an incentive to show that your work has some new, great
               | outcome. But there's also value in showing "Hey, we
               | thought this idea had legs but it turns out it didn't."
               | Publishing that work should be part of science but right
               | now its not. (As a side benefit, you could prevent a lot
               | of researchers wasting effort on the same idea simply
               | because they weren't aware that other people already
               | tried, and failed.)
               | 
               | 2) Journals can put a premium on sharing your data and
               | code during the review process. Right now, it's often
               | just up to the author and there are lots of veils to hide
               | behind that essentially give the impression of sharing
               | data, but not in a very useful way.
               | 
               | 3) Give value to replicating work. Maybe not as much
               | prestige as creating new work, but showing that it can be
               | replicated obviously has value to society as a whole.
               | Most of the time this won't get published, except in the
               | cases where it's sensationalized, like fraud. (This
               | effect is related to #1)
               | 
               | 4) Journals can do a better job vetting their reviewers.
               | They struggle to get timely reviews and reach to anyone
               | who accepts the duty. Reviewers may agree to review
               | something they have little background in, and as a
               | result, it's easier to skirt bad articles through the
               | system.
        
               | codekilla wrote:
               | I don't disagree with any of these points, it's just I've
               | been involved in open science circles, where these things
               | are always mentioned, and I just don't see any material
               | progress (maybe I'm not looking that closely though). I
               | think the reason for the lack of progress is mainly
               | funding--so until someone gets serious about funding
               | (billionaires or taxpayers), it just seems like the same
               | merry go around. It's very expensive to replicate
               | biomedical studies--but it's the only thing that works.
               | Maybe the tide is turning though and simply
               | incentivizing/protecting grad students to become
               | whistleblowers will do more good, but I fear this case
               | was more the exception than the rule.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | I think the difference is between a ground-up or top-down
               | approach. Maybe both are needed. My current stance is
               | that while a top-down approach would work, there's very
               | little chance of it happening. For one, government
               | research funds have largely flat-lined in the last 20
               | years, and expecting them to take on more costs for
               | managing peer review would likely exacerbate the problem.
               | I also don't see the govt clamoring for additional
               | administrative burden. I don't think replication has to
               | be the only method (although I think it's probably the
               | best). Opening the data to the public can do a lot to
               | suss out bad practices or outright fraud, as we saw with
               | the Ariely situation. The progress has been slow, for
               | sure, but I think there is some. For example, there are
               | now journals that specialize in publishing "non-
               | surprising" results.
        
         | linuxftw wrote:
         | Peer review can't catch manipulated data. Replication studies
         | do, that's a whole separate concern.
        
       | pneumic wrote:
       | Where are there so many seemingly dishonest Alzheimers
       | researchers lately?
        
       | wouldbecouldbe wrote:
       | Falsifying in research feels a bit like doping in sports.
       | 
       | At some point the prestige & funding are just too much of an
       | incentive to not take advantage of it.
       | 
       | It's probably easy to morally justified in their minds because
       | they believe their hypthosis is correct
        
         | nerdponx wrote:
         | Doping in sports doesn't waste millions of taxpayer dollars and
         | murder stroke victims who might have otherwise recovered.
        
           | starcraft2wol wrote:
           | Maybe the public shouldn't be handing out these incentives
           | then.
        
           | wouldbecouldbe wrote:
           | Sports benefit to society is hard to quantify.
           | 
           | But most agree there is benefit to having sport activities in
           | our society. And that doping is detrimental to it.
           | 
           | It also attracts millions of taxpayers money, lots of
           | athletes, especially those going to Olympics, get funded.
           | 
           | But originally I wasn't making a comparison based on negative
           | impact on society, but comparing the incentive structure.
        
       | bradley13 wrote:
       | There are three reasons this happens, and money is at the root of
       | all of them.
       | 
       | - Publish-or-perish: You want to keep that professorship, you had
       | better publish, frequently. Experiments that don't yield results
       | don't count.
       | 
       | - Grant money: You want to get funding for your lab, your
       | assistants and your students, you had better publish. Experiments
       | that don't yield results don't count.
       | 
       | - Start-up culture: Just another permutation of "get rich quick",
       | but you need a saleable product. Experiments that don't yield
       | results don't count.
       | 
       | So there are massive incentives to fake results. "Fake it until
       | you make it", only with actual lives at risk. Say hello to
       | Elizabeth Holmes.
        
         | robertlagrant wrote:
         | > money is at the root of all of them
         | 
         | Money doesn't seem to be at the root of the first one.
        
           | jampekka wrote:
           | Perishing here means losing your career and the sustinence
           | its salary gives. So its very much about money, just not
           | getting wealthy type money.
        
       | monero-xmr wrote:
       | A friend did her PhD in climate science and the research involved
       | weather station data. She said all of the data is full of gaps,
       | outliers, messy, and the way the "science" solves it is to just
       | get rid of reports that don't align with priors and use very
       | basic functions to fill in missing data.
       | 
       | When people say "trust the science" it means making scientists
       | and researcher High Priests of the Religion of Truth. Until every
       | single experiment is pre-registered, all data is public and
       | transparent, and all results are published, the entire
       | experimental scientific establishment should be treated with
       | massive skepticism.
        
         | adam_smith123 wrote:
         | That's called fraud and no it's not how "science" functions.
        
           | doitLP wrote:
           | It's absolutely how a dishonest science _institution_
           | functions. Science itself is nothing more than a method. The
           | disdain is for people who confuse the process with the
           | institution. And at that point it is just blind faith like
           | any old religion. Show me the preregistration, the conflict
           | of interest disclosure and the third party replication and
           | then I'll "trust the science".
        
             | adam_smith123 wrote:
             | PEOPLE are abusing bad incentives. I'm quite certain that
             | if this lab was exposed for doing what the poster claims it
             | would be a major controversy just like other cases we've
             | seen. That's the institution correctly reacting to bad
             | actors.
        
           | u32480932048 wrote:
           | See also: Normative vs. Positive analysis
        
           | mistermann wrote:
           | How science functions is how it functions. You do not have
           | knowledge of the entirety of scientific endeavors, it only
           | seems like you do, presumably due to being trained on
           | propaganda, like an LLM.
           | 
           | Maybe you are conflating it with how it is supposed to, and
           | is claimed to function by people who share the same form of
           | faith based epistemology as you.
        
             | adam_smith123 wrote:
             | Science is a set of methods. If you abandon those methods
             | and fake data to fit your needs you aren't doing science
             | you are committing various kinds of fraud. Maybe ChatGPT
             | can explain that to you instead of listening to Alex Jones.
        
           | nvm0n2 wrote:
           | It's not called fraud in climatology and yes it is how
           | "science" functions. There are no universal standards in
           | academia. Climatological norms involve heavy processing of
           | thermometer readings to "clean" them in various ways. They
           | all do it and do not see any problems with what they do.
           | Every claim you've ever read about temperatures from
           | climatologists is based on that kind of procedure.
           | 
           | Some of this has good intentions, at least originally.
           | Weather stations aren't normally intended to be used by
           | climatologists. They exist for other reasons. So they get
           | moved around, or not moved even as the environment changes
           | around them, get placed in inconveniently unrepresentative
           | places like airport runways, and more. Climatologists scrape
           | this data from the internet or collect it from logbooks and
           | then try to work out what's happening, but the data is super
           | noisy.
           | 
           | Now the way science works is that you characterize the
           | uncertainty in your data and propagate it through any
           | calculations you do, in order to track your uncertainty
           | intervals. Then you communicate those and take them into
           | account when making predictions.
           | 
           | But in climatology they don't do this. Instead they use lots
           | of algorithms and manual tweaks to try and "fix" the data to
           | bring it into line with what they know it "should" be, and
           | then report the data without CIs, as having 100% confidence.
           | For example if a time series at a weather station is stable
           | for 20 years, then experiences a short break, then it returns
           | but the average is consistently 0.3 degrees different than
           | before, they infer that it must have moved and they then
           | "correct" it back to the previous baseline. If there are gaps
           | in the data then they generate fake readings by interpolating
           | between the nearest alternative weather stations, and so on.
           | 
           | Outsiders might expect that they would investigate and try to
           | improve the quality of their source data but they don't.
           | Like, if their algorithms infer a station move, they don't
           | contact the station operator to figure out if that really
           | happened. They just assume their corrections are fine and
           | move on.
           | 
           | Another fun thing they do is alter data that was already
           | published. When they update their algorithms for deciding
           | what data points to include/drop/change, they don't just use
           | it for new data running forwards. They reprocess the entire
           | historical data set. That can yield outcomes that would
           | normally be taken as a clear indicator of scientific fraud,
           | for example where NOAA declared a temperature record, and a
           | few years later declared a new record that was lower than the
           | previous one [1]. Or where scientists invalidated decades of
           | published papers (thousands of them) by deciding that the
           | temperature trend in the first 15 years of the century was
           | totally different to what had previously been reported:
           | 
           | https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2015.17700
           | 
           | The underlying data on which those papers were built was
           | announced to be all wrong, but nothing was retracted! That's
           | how science functions. And the best part is that they've
           | trained the public so well that for anyone who calls any of
           | this fraud, as you just did, they are instantly ostracised
           | for being a heretical Denier.
           | 
           | [1] https://retractionwatch.com/2021/08/16/will-the-real-
           | hottest...
        
         | u32480932048 wrote:
         | A friend of mine used to be responsible for (among other
         | things) water temperature measurements on naval ships.
         | 
         | Speaking loosely to make the point, they used to measure
         | temperature from the front of the ship, then inexplicably (to
         | him, anyway) changed the procedure to sample from behind the
         | ship (where the water was warmer from engine exhaust/water
         | output), leading to a sudden increase in water temperatures.
        
         | SpaceManNabs wrote:
         | The issue is that a lot of scientists and researchers don't
         | even know basic math or stats lol. The biggest idiot in a PhD
         | program still gets a degree.
        
           | pcrh wrote:
           | The drop-out rate for PhD programmes is about 20-50%.
        
       | adam_smith123 wrote:
       | If it didn't come out of a Physic Lab or a hard Engineering Lab
       | dont trust the results at face value and even it did there's
       | plenty of reason for doubt. See LK-99 or Ranga Dias.
        
       | meroes wrote:
       | Seems like freshmen need to practice their academic dishonestly
       | more to have these skills ready by career time! Maybe the
       | academic integrity councils need to include professors' work.
        
       | perihelions wrote:
       | I'm astounded that this guy's the world #1 in his subfield by
       | academia's success metric, citation count. (The table about 2/3rd
       | of the way into the article).
        
         | bumby wrote:
         | It kinda makes sense to me. The people who are most likely to
         | have a high citation count are those who value making
         | publications. Those who treat publications are the primary goal
         | are probably those most likely to take an "ends justify the
         | means" approach to publishing. (That's not to say all those who
         | value publication count are unethical, just that the unethical
         | group is more likely a subset of those whose primary metric is
         | publication count).
         | 
         | Goodhart's Law says: "When the measure becomes the target, it
         | ceases to be a good measure." When the target is "publication
         | or citation count" rather than "meaningful research or the
         | pursuit of truth" things can get weird.
        
         | bsimpson wrote:
         | Francesca Gino was famously prolific before she was outed as a
         | fraud - publishing monthly when her peers were publishing a few
         | times a year.
        
       | wslh wrote:
       | I think corruption is a very poorly studied (and solved) topic.
       | Not religious, but the Ten Commandments seems to have more wisdom
       | that its application in the real world.
        
       | jboggan wrote:
       | The best "researchers" are poor scientists and vice versa. I
       | thought I had hitched my wagon to a star in grad school when I
       | joined a lab with a high profile and big money-raising PI. After
       | awhile I realized they did no research themselves and focused
       | solely on hype and raising money.
       | 
       | When I found out a software bug had invalidated a year's worth of
       | simulations they pressured me to present the false data as true
       | at a large talk. That's when I realized that being honest and
       | truthful with data was not the way to succeed in academia. I also
       | unknowingly ended my career that day by not going along with my
       | professor's fraud.
       | 
       | That being said, nothing surprises me anymore about academic
       | dishonesty and research grant funding.
        
         | KittenInABox wrote:
         | Unfortunately the systemic incentives support PIs that are
         | basically hype salespeople. PIs gain prominence on metrics:
         | number of dollars raised, number of PhDs mentored, number of
         | post-docs on staff, number of papers landed, number of awards
         | granted...
         | 
         | They are not supported on number of hours of research done--
         | they arguably put in that time when they were PhD candidates or
         | post-docs themselves.
         | 
         | When I was a PhD candidate (couldn't handle the papers-or-die
         | academic environment so I left) I really, really loved my PI.
         | He had immense academic and intellectual humility. But even he
         | had 10+ papers in-flight at the same time and rarely had time
         | to do any work himself!
        
         | strikelaserclaw wrote:
         | These days science is done as a "collaborative" effort, there
         | are tons of people gaming that, like putting their names on
         | papers where they didn't do that much, churning out papers
         | which doesn't really add much to science etc...
        
           | dguest wrote:
           | In my collaboration you get to be an author on every paper
           | (around 100 a year) just by doing any work in the experiment.
           | I'm an author on around 1000 papers that I haven't even
           | downloaded, much less read.
        
             | jampekka wrote:
             | Are you in HEP?
             | 
             | I think that's actually a good thing. Makes publication
             | metrics unusable (which is a good thing) and sidesteps many
             | gaming strategies.
        
               | dguest wrote:
               | It's a thing for sure. It would be great in a post-
               | scarcity society where everyone can be funded regardless
               | of what they do, but people are still competitive. For
               | example:
               | 
               | - There are still internal databases (which funding
               | agencies can access), people fight over who gets on which
               | paper there. There are people trying to game that system
               | as much as they would try to game a public metric.
               | 
               | - There's a whole cottage industry of people in these
               | collaborations who simulate the experiment, show that it
               | _could_ do something, and then publish a paper (with a
               | shorter author list) about it. This is so popular that
               | many of these people never get around to doing the real
               | experiment.
               | 
               | Unfortunately I don't think we've broken free of
               | Goodhart's Law so easily.
        
         | FrustratedMonky wrote:
         | Also, between the lines there. Why was there a software bug
         | that existed for a year, where was the checking. Researchers
         | also do not care about any kind of software best practices, or
         | the value of software. So it is all, fast and dirty hacks.
        
           | fock wrote:
           | also fun along that:
           | 
           | - oss-project implements paper in another framework. makes a
           | small mistake to the paper.
           | 
           | - original lab takes the OSS code because they switch
           | frameworks
           | 
           | - they find and fix the mistake
           | 
           | - sit on that for 2 years without doing a PR.
        
           | icedchai wrote:
           | I've worked with "research" code and the lack of best
           | practices is very true. Few to no tests. Little to no
           | modularization or reuse. The same code copy-and-pasted all
           | over the place. Reinventing the wheel poorly instead of using
           | a 3rd party package/library. Dev environments that are
           | difficult to reproduce since various pieces are either not
           | checked in or in some external drive share. I won't even talk
           | about the actual code itself.
        
         | Kevin09210 wrote:
         | Daniel Promislow ?
        
         | dheera wrote:
         | The incentives are wrong in the first place. People are judged
         | based on number of papers published to prestigious journals,
         | and demoted when they don't have quarterly positive results,
         | and given promotions and financial boosts accordingly. People
         | attempting to reproduce past results for verification get
         | little to no reward. This incentive structure is in direct
         | contradiction to honesty and real science.
        
         | isthatafact wrote:
         | Knowingly publishing wrong simulation data is stupid -- (imho,
         | no blame should have gone to you, a student, even if you had
         | gone along with it, but rather to your supervisors in that
         | situation) -- because published simulations would always be
         | reproducible, by definition, if you think about it.
         | 
         | Anyone trying to replicate the results will discover that the
         | previous simulations are wrong, though will probably assume
         | mistakes and not fraud by the original researchers. Of course
         | it could take years for someone else to notice the problem (if
         | ever), depending on how exciting were the claimed results and
         | how easy to run are the simulations.
        
       | yafbum wrote:
       | Scientific fraud robs the community twice: the first time by
       | wasting research funds on fraud, the second time because
       | experiments with the appearance of success funnel more dollars to
       | them, taking away funding from other areas that might look less
       | sexy but might have yielded a breakthrough of they'd been
       | pursued. Grant issuers should insist on some form of end-to-end
       | third-party data custodianship to prevent tampering with data
       | during analysis. Seems better than the many billions of $ being
       | wasted on fraud and subsequent missed opportunity.
        
         | Voultapher wrote:
         | So many problems in science could be alleviated if we changed
         | the culture and processes to multi replication. Your paper can
         | only be accepted into a paper if an unrelated group can
         | replicate the results with only the paper and associated
         | submitted info.
        
           | ffgjgf1 wrote:
           | Someone will need to pay that other group though. Sometimes
           | quite a lot.
        
             | Voultapher wrote:
             | I'd argue it's worth it.
             | 
             | Some practical ideas, when allocating the money for
             | research 30% or so has to be kept back for replication.
             | Public science is mostly government funded. And the
             | government could allocate X% percent of the budget for
             | replication work. It sounds like a solvable problem to me.
        
               | ffgjgf1 wrote:
               | I agree in principle but forcing institutions or
               | governments to allocate money for this and enforce is
               | pretty much an unsolvable problem at this point IMO.
        
               | Voultapher wrote:
               | Yeah, as I said it's also a question of culture and
               | that's very difficult to change.
        
           | doctorpangloss wrote:
           | It is a misconception that replication doesn't occur. In
           | vanguard basic science, every journey crosses replicating the
           | most recent results.
        
             | Voultapher wrote:
             | I'd like to learn more, could you please provide some
             | sources.
             | 
             | Based on the recent Ranga Dias fraud, I'd think replication
             | culture still has a long way to go.
        
             | coolhand2120 wrote:
             | Is that true? Do you have any citation? It sounds
             | incredible. Every study?
        
               | pcrh wrote:
               | It's _broadly_ true that most research is eventually
               | subject to attempts at replication. However the
               | replication isn 't explicitly attempting to reproduce the
               | exact prior research, but to build on it.
               | 
               | If the foundation established by the prior research is
               | flawed, attempts to build on it will _usually_ fail.
        
           | tnecniv wrote:
           | This doesn't scale. Sometimes only a small number of labs
           | have the equipment needed to run an experiment, let alone the
           | training on the equipment to do what needs to be done. This
           | equipment can cost millions. Even if the results are correct,
           | experimental science is very finicky by its very nature.
           | Getting an experiment to work can take months.
        
             | Voultapher wrote:
             | I'd say if no one can afford to, or knows how to replicate
             | the thing you did. What point is there in it? And only
             | because such an approach has downsides it's not clear it
             | means the overall benefit of lessening the replication
             | crisis and forcing scientists to provide enough information
             | their work can be replicated at all would be a huge win.
             | Based on people like
             | https://www.youtube.com/@AppliedScience experience, 9 out
             | of 10 times there is some crucial information missing in
             | the papers they are trying to replicate.
        
               | anonymouskimmer wrote:
               | > I'd say if no one can afford to
               | 
               | Because sometimes they can afford to _build_ on your
               | prior results, and advance the state of the art.
               | Factoring in all of the malfeasance, what 's the trade
               | off between not publishing due to inability/unwillingness
               | to replicate, and publishing bad results? We should know
               | this tradeoff before significantly changing the status
               | quo.
               | 
               | > or knows how to replicate the thing you did.
               | 
               | Agree completely.
        
             | somenameforme wrote:
             | Like what? I can think of extremely few domains that any
             | decent research university isn't well equipped to
             | competently replicate. One of the very few benefits of the
             | tuition explosion - even undergrads get relatively casual
             | access to equipment worth millions of dollars.
             | 
             | Of course they can't replicate things like ultra high
             | energy particle research, but these sort of obscure things
             | make up a very negligible chunk of all science produced,
             | even if it's quite an important little chunk.
        
               | cycomanic wrote:
               | I guess you're not thinking hard enough. I estimate >90%
               | of research in most technical fields would require 10s of
               | years to replicate unless you are one of the few labs
               | already working on the same topic.
               | 
               | For example in on of the research areas I'm familiar with
               | (optical communications), there are maybe 10 academic
               | labs in Europe (and even less in the US) who have the
               | equipment to reproduce some of our experiments. In our
               | lab there is 1 PhD student who could pull off reproducing
               | the more sophisticated experiments (because he is the one
               | focusing on communications) it took him 2 years to get to
               | that stage.
               | 
               | This is an relatively easy area, i.e. equipment is
               | largely off the shelve, very applied with lots of
               | industry involvement. There are plenty of experiments
               | published which could only be done in 2 labs (both of
               | them industrial), just due to the cost of the required
               | equipment.
               | 
               | In other areas (e.g. with fabrication in the clean room)
               | reproduction would require even more time investment.
               | 
               | Don't get me wrong, reproducing results is important, but
               | what people don't realise it happens all the time when
               | people do adopt part of published results into their
               | research. Mandatory reproducing results would just create
               | large overheads which would get us nowhere.
        
             | rtsil wrote:
             | Fine, let's just do it on those that scale. Not all science
             | is done in high-end, expensive labs, and this type of
             | control will help the young researchers who are publishing
             | their first works to gain more credibility and develop
             | healthy habits.
             | 
             | Sadly, as long as the tyranny of publishing exists, the
             | other researchers will always prefer working on their own
             | things than replicating someone else's not yet published
             | experiment.
        
             | etrautmann wrote:
             | Agreed - having done a PhD in an experimental neuroscience
             | lab, there's a nonsignificant number of things that nobody
             | else in the world, even in my own lab, can do. I can train
             | the techniques to others, and do, but this is separate from
             | scientific discovery. There are no incentives for someone
             | else to spend their time replicating my work using
             | unbelievably challenging and expensive methods. It just
             | wouldn't work in practice without a more fundamental
             | restructuring of the whole enterprise (which is also
             | necessary but hard).
        
           | hcks wrote:
           | If this had been enacted, there would never have been any
           | scientific progress. Should tell you something
        
             | Voultapher wrote:
             | You base this claim on what exactly?
        
           | ska wrote:
           | You don't really need that (and it would be too expensive),
           | you just need to fix the incentives so that people do more
           | replication.
        
         | LeifCarrotson wrote:
         | And a third time when they ask for research funding in the
         | future and the public says "No, last time you used the money
         | fraudulently"
        
           | azinman2 wrote:
           | And a fourth time when the scientific community says "this is
           | our hard earned conclusion" and the public says "I don't
           | trust this."
        
             | fooop wrote:
             | nor should they, since the public is indeed being lied to.
        
               | azinman2 wrote:
               | About...? By whom..?
               | 
               | Whatever it is, know that science as a whole is giant,
               | diverse, and self correcting over the long term.
        
               | verisimi wrote:
               | I don't agree.
               | 
               | When you have lots of people whose livelihoods depend on
               | the gravy train, who can't be sure that what they are
               | working on is fraudulent because they are so specialised,
               | who would take that risk?
               | 
               | Its all about funding. And in the US basically all
               | funding comes from the same source - government, military
               | or corporations - what I think of as the governance
               | system.
        
         | anonymouskimmer wrote:
         | Not to mention all of the students who end up dropping out or
         | having to take Masters instead of PhDs because their theses
         | built on the fraud fail.
         | 
         | Just like we should place failed results (when due to wrong
         | science, not bad skills) on an equal level with successful
         | results, we should place failed thesis projects on equal level
         | with successful thesis projects as having added to the general
         | knowledge (again, when the failed projects demonstrate a
         | falsified theory, not when they fail due to mistakes or
         | inability on the part of the student).
        
           | stanford_labrat wrote:
           | Great comment. I would encourage all PhD students to bomb-
           | proof their thesis topic and build it on as solid a
           | foundation as possible. I chose perhaps a less flashy,
           | relevant, and lucrative topic for this reason but I would
           | rather finish than be staring down the barrel of a "my entire
           | work has been based off a lie"...
        
         | bsimpson wrote:
         | And a third time: reputation
         | 
         | Dan Ariely and Francesca Gino were two of the most well-known
         | behavioral economists. Hell, Ariely even published a a board
         | game about it (as well as a bunch of popular books). They've
         | both been accused of data manipulation this year.
         | 
         | My friends in the field are worried that the whole field will
         | be tainted. It grew out of a controversial idea - that despite
         | what past models demand, people don't consistently behave in a
         | rational way. If the two biggest practitioners of a new
         | discipline are outed as frauds, what does that do the the
         | reputation of the discipline as a whole? Will people be
         | skeptical of any behavioral hypothesis that bucks tradition
         | because Ariely was accused of fraud?
        
       | macinjosh wrote:
       | Fraud is fraud, lock 'em up.
        
         | iinnPP wrote:
         | This. The answer is so simple.
        
       | smegsicle wrote:
       | i sure hope our sun never has a stroke
        
       | somenameforme wrote:
       | I found this [1] interesting:
       | 
       | "Zlokovic is recognized internationally as a leader in the fields
       | of AD and stroke research. Thomson Reuters and Clarivate
       | Analytics listed Zlokovic as one of "The World's Most Influential
       | Scientific Minds" for 21 consecutive years (2002-2022) for
       | ranking in 1 % of the most-cited authors in the field of
       | neurosciences and behavioral sciences. He received [lots of
       | awards.]"
       | 
       | [1] - https://keck.usc.edu/faculty-search/berislav-v-zlokovic/
        
       | kingkawn wrote:
       | When will it be acknowledged that this corruption is a feature of
       | academic institutional self-preservation not a bug? This is
       | inherent to the process.
        
       | mmmmpancakes wrote:
       | Scientific fraud makes me sad and angry.
        
       | SpaceManNabs wrote:
       | I have seen peer review hinder actual research more than actually
       | catch fraudulent papers. There is no incentive to call out
       | bullshit in academia because you might not even pass peer review
       | when you call out bullshit. Might as well work on another paper
       | instead.
       | 
       | Meanwhile people doing actual work get scooped or ignored by
       | people abusing the practice or just doing outright fraud.
        
       | twothreeone wrote:
       | It's a bit sad to see people jump on the witch-hunt bandwagon
       | every time something like this is published. That kind of
       | reaction is an absolute disservice to the public. Even if this
       | guys turns out to be a totally 100% evil fraudster who took
       | millions of NIH funding to buy coke, b&*#!es, and fancy cars
       | while knowing that his drug might kill dozens of people, it just
       | demonstrates that the system for awarding such funds is deeply
       | flawed. Science is about fact finding, how are we even pretending
       | that that's a remote possibility with a sample size of one?
       | Studies need to be independently verified _multiple times over_
       | to actually establish them as facts.. that's standard procedure
       | in other fields. That we just abandon that scrutiny by blindly
       | accepting anyone's claims because they wrote X number of papers
       | on a topic is not on that guy at all. And worse, nothing will
       | change buy burning him at the stake of public opinion. The next
       | guy comes along and the story repeats, science.org and the
       | "whistleblowers" get their five minutes of fame (and click $$$).
       | If we want things to change we need to hold the institutions who
       | award such grants and fast-track permissions accountable, instead
       | of allowing them to get away with a cheap scapegoat.
        
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