[HN Gopher] Large language models lack deep insights or a theory...
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       Large language models lack deep insights or a theory of mind
        
       Author : mnode
       Score  : 205 points
       Date   : 2023-11-30 15:31 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | JonChesterfield wrote:
       | The fun question is whether human cognition similarly lacks deep
       | insights or said theory of mind.
       | 
       | I perceive a moving of the goalposts as machine intelligence
       | improves. Once we'd have been happy with smarter than an
       | especially stupid person, now I think we're aiming at smarter
       | than the smartest person.
        
         | stcredzero wrote:
         | _I perceive a moving of the goalposts as machine intelligence
         | improves._
         | 
         | We get a better and better idea of what this hazy term
         | "intelligence" means as we DIY tinker with making our own new
         | ones.
         | 
         |  _Once we 'd have been happy with smarter than an especially
         | stupid person, now I think we're aiming at smarter than the
         | smartest person._
         | 
         | We're going to get there sooner than we think. When we get
         | there, we will have new things to regret in ways we'd never
         | thought of before.
        
           | Filligree wrote:
           | > We're going to get there sooner than we think. When we get
           | there, we will have new things to regret in ways we'd never
           | thought of before.
           | 
           | I'll take that. My own expectation is I'll have a few
           | minutes-to-months to say "I told you so".
        
         | vacuity wrote:
         | I think it has to do with the notion that many (most?) people
         | who could hone, and employ, respectable cognitive skills
         | neglect or refuse to do so in favor of putting down other
         | species and LLMs. They point to the human exemplars and think
         | having the same DNA template elevates them to that level. They
         | have to be superior even if it means applying ridiculous biases
         | around intelligence.
        
         | swatcoder wrote:
         | > I perceive a moving of the goalposts as machine intelligence
         | improves.
         | 
         | Goal posts only exist in games.
         | 
         | These systems are engineering products to be leveraged in
         | enginenering processes. We want to understand what they're good
         | at and what they're bad at, and what potential they show for
         | further refinement. There are no goal posts or "happy with"
         | criteria in that context, and when we find ourselves adjusting
         | the language we use to describe them because of how we see them
         | work, we're trying to refine our ability to express their
         | capabilities and suitabilities.
         | 
         | Intelligence, in particular, is a very poor and ambiguous word
         | to be stuck using in technical contexts and so we're likely to
         | just gradually shed it over time to reduce confusion as we hone
         | in on better ways to talk about these systems. We've repeatedly
         | done the same for earlier advances in the field, and for the
         | same reason.
        
         | mcguire wrote:
         | I believe those goalposts have always been way farther out than
         | many people think. If you look at the discussion around
         | Turing's original Imitation Game paper, you'll find people
         | wanting the machine to be able to do things that most humans
         | cannot. And its perfectly valid to do so.
         | 
         | If you regard "an especially stupid person" as someone with
         | significant cognitive or communication limits, then Parry and
         | Eliza's Doctor are pretty fair simulations of paranoid
         | schizophrenia (as it was understood at the time) and Rogerian
         | therapy. Likewise, chess and go AIs are pretty damn smart,
         | except they can't do anything else.
         | 
         | The point is that, if you accept limits on what the machine
         | needs to do, then "intelligence" as defined by behavior you can
         | recognize becomes trivially and meaninglessly easy.
         | 
         | (It's sort of like evaluating a person's competence: a minority
         | person has to be more competent than their cohort because non-
         | minority people get the benefit of the doubt.)
        
       | stuckinhell wrote:
       | Do humans have that as well ? I read studies that suggest we make
       | up consciousness a half second after something happened.
        
         | omginternets wrote:
         | We don't "make up" consciousness, but yes, there is a
         | processing latency of around 250-300ms.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | I think they may be referring to the principle task that
           | consciousness serves in humans, which is to rationalize
           | decisions we've already made subconsciously to other people
           | so they will help us.
           | 
           | The conscious "why" comes after the decision. In that sense
           | it's exactly the kind of bullshit machine that LLMs are.
        
             | mcguire wrote:
             | A thought experiment: what kind of functional MRI result
             | would convince you that human consciousness is real and an
             | important part of decision making?
             | 
             | Note: if the result is someone reporting having made a
             | decision before brain activity is seen, my next question is
             | going to be "How does _that_ work? "
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/our-
               | brains-re...
               | 
               | An important statement in the article is this...
               | 
               | >"As the decision of what to think about is made,
               | executive areas of the brain choose the thought-trace
               | which is stronger. In, other words, if any pre-existing
               | brain activity matches one of your choices, then your
               | brain will be more likely to pick that option as it gets
               | boosted by the pre-existing brain activity.
               | 
               | If you observe con men, politicians, and advertisers,
               | they'll commonly use precursors to pre-prime the pump in
               | influencing what you'll agree to.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >Note: if the result is someone reporting having made a
               | decision before brain activity is seen, my next question
               | is going to be "How does that work?"
               | 
               | This is not how we figure conscious explanations are
               | often(always?) post-hoc rationalizations.
               | 
               | See -
               | 
               | Split brain experiments -
               | https://www.nature.com/articles/483260a
               | 
               | Experiments on Choice preferences
               | -https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3196841/
        
               | vjerancrnjak wrote:
               | https://direct.mit.edu/jocn/article-
               | abstract/21/7/1269/4764/...
               | 
               | Here's a study from 2009 showing that the problem gets
               | solved but it takes up to 8 seconds for the person to
               | announce that the problem is solved.
               | 
               | Showing that even for problem solving, there's a giant
               | unconscious machinery that is active. Although I assume
               | they cannot discount the effects of the conscious bits
               | (struggle, suffering, anxiety, active as a mirror of that
               | problem solving effort being a feedback loop to this
               | unconscious effort).
        
               | omginternets wrote:
               | >Note: if the result is someone reporting having made a
               | decision before brain activity is seen, my next question
               | is going to be "How does that work?"
               | 
               | My Ph.D is actually about this. Here's a paper: https://j
               | ournals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
        
           | FrustratedMonky wrote:
           | In the book "Being You" Anil Seth. It does postulate that we
           | make up consciousness.
           | 
           | The brain is trying to 'predict' the next sensory input, and
           | that prediction is our awareness. What we would call our
           | 'conscious self'.
           | 
           | It makes point of calling it a 'controlled hallucinations',
           | in that what we experience as our self. "Hallucination" being
           | the experience we have as our brain 'predicting/controlling'
           | for the sensory input. So All inputs come together in a
           | 'hallucination', but it is averaged 'Bayesian', with the
           | actions we are taking at same time. So Action + Prediction =
           | Self.
           | 
           | It is funny that using the word 'hallucinate' in AI has
           | become so common and it is also used in Humans. And so few
           | people seem to make connection that they are actually very
           | similar, and far from being an argument against AI
           | consciousness, is argument for how similar they are.
        
         | stcredzero wrote:
         | Bad liars seem to have difficulty with theory of mind.
         | Sometimes ChatGPT comes across somewhat like this.
        
           | ape4 wrote:
           | Alternately good liars probably have a solid theory of mind.
           | You need to tell the other person what they are likely to
           | believe so you need to know how they think.
        
             | KineticLensman wrote:
             | > good liars probably have a solid theory of mind
             | 
             | That, and confidence, and ideally a good memory so that
             | they can keep track of what they have previously said to
             | someone.
        
               | stcredzero wrote:
               | One take I have on internet corpus trained LLMs: They are
               | the most widely read bullshitters we've ever seen.
        
       | hiddencost wrote:
       | Another paper in a long series that confuses "our tests against
       | currently available LLMs tuned for specific tasks found that they
       | didn't perform well on our task" with "LLMs are architecturally
       | unsuitable for our task".
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | It's a weird title anyway. I was expecting worse results but
         | GPT-4V is close to or matching Human median performance on most
         | of the tests besides the multimodal "Intuitive Psychology"
         | tests.
        
         | dsr_ wrote:
         | There is no reason to believe (evidence) that any meaning
         | ascribed to an LLM's utterances comes from the LLM rather than
         | being pareidolia.
         | 
         | If you've found some, please let everyone know.
        
           | kkzz99 wrote:
           | You would first have to define what you mean with "meaning"
           | and "pareidolia" in this context.
        
           | Tadpole9181 wrote:
           | There is no reason to believe (evidence) that any meaning
           | ascribed to _anyone but me_ 's utterances comes from the
           | _person_ rather than being pareidolia.
           | 
           | If you've found some, please let everyone know.
        
           | LesZedCB wrote:
           | _all text_ ever written has only ever had meaning imbued by
           | the reader (including this text).
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | Our tests against current cars found that they didn't perform
         | well on transatlantic flights... But who knows what the future
         | holds? Maybe we should test them again next year.
         | 
         | LLM names an specific product, aimed at solving an specific
         | problem.
        
           | LesZedCB wrote:
           | our tests of combustion engine driven crankshafts connected
           | to a spinning mechanism can perform well in both
           | transatlantic flights and cross country road trips.
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | That's not the hard part about building a working airplane,
             | though...
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | Yes, but as the saying goes, anything can fly if you
               | strap a powerful enough engine to it... so we've
               | demonstrated basic capability, and the rest is now
               | optimizing its performance a couple orders of magnitude.
        
       | menssen wrote:
       | I appreciate this paper for relatively clearly stating what
       | "human-like" might entail, which in this case involves "reasoning
       | about the causes behind other people's behavior" which is
       | "critical to navigate the social world" as outlined in this
       | citation:
       | 
       | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00100...
       | 
       | I get frustrated often when people argue "well, it isn't really
       | intelligent" and then give examples that are clearly dependent on
       | our brain's chemical state and our bodies' existence in-the-
       | physical-world.
       | 
       | I get the feeling that when/if we are all enslaved by a super-
       | intelligent AI that we do not understand its motives, we will
       | still argue that it is not intelligent because it doesn't get
       | hungry and it can't prove to us that it has Qualia.
       | 
       | This paper argues that gpts are bad at understanding human
       | risk/reward functions, which seems like a much more explicit way
       | to talk about this, and also casts it in a way that could help
       | reframe the debate about how human evolution and our physical
       | beings might be significantly responsible for the structure of
       | our rational minds.
        
         | swatcoder wrote:
         | The underlying problem is that "intelligence" is itself a
         | crappy, poorly defined word with a fraught and inconsistent
         | history.
         | 
         | It doesn't appear until the early 20th century, in the shadow
         | of compulsory education and the challenges it presented, first
         | as a technical label for attempts to sort students -- and later
         | soldiers -- into the tracks in which they're most likely to
         | succeed, and then being haphazardly asserted (but not
         | scientifically evidenced) as some general measure of mental
         | aptitude.
         | 
         | At that point it shifts from something qualitative ( _which_
         | mental tasks might someone be good at) to something
         | quantitative ( _how_ much more might one personal excel at
         | _all_ mental tasks than another), and the burgeoning field of
         | modern American psychology goes  "Aha! A quantitative measure!
         | Here's our meal ticket to being recognized as a science instead
         | of those quacks from Vienna", with far too much at stake to
         | either question the many assumptions at play or the
         | inconsistent history of usage.
         | 
         | Momentum takes hold and the public takes the word into its
         | everyday vernacular, even while it's still not a clear and
         | sound concept in its technical domain. [Most of this is history
         | is more academically covered in Danziger's 1987 "Naming the
         | Mind" which is excellent, and critical foundational reading to
         | contextualize recent hot discussions in AI]
         | 
         | The way you're using it when you worry about "super-
         | intelligence" is in the sense of intelligence being some
         | universal, unbounded, quantitative independent variable along
         | the lines of "the more intelligent something is, the more
         | cunningly it can pursue some rationalized goal" -- some master
         | strategist.
         | 
         | That's fine, and you're not alone in that, but there's not
         | really any sound scientific groundwork to establish that there
         | exists some quality of the world that scales like that. You're
         | fear, and what you try to distinguish conceptually from what
         | the paper addresses, is an inductive leap made from highly
         | unstable ground. It's in the same invented, purely abstract
         | idea-space of "omnipotence" or "omniscience" where one takes a
         | practical idea like "power to influence" or "ability to know
         | fact" and inductively draws a line from these practical senses
         | towards some abstract infinite/incomprehensible version of that
         | thing. But that inductive leap a Platonic logician's parlor
         | trick and ends up raising all kinds of abstract paradoxes, as
         | well countless physical impracticalities about how such things
         | could exist.
         | 
         | So a lot of people (academic and lay) just aren't with you in
         | taking that framing of intelligence very seriously. For many,
         | an "super-intelligent" software whose "motives" we don't
         | understand is just a program that produces incorrect outputs
         | and ought to be debugged or retired, and the more interesting
         | questions around machine "intelligence" are practical ones like
         | "what tasks are these programs well-suited for". Here, the
         | authors point out that the current batch of programs are not
         | good at tasks that benefit from a theory of mind.
         | 
         | Knowing the answer to that kind of question reaches back to the
         | earliest and least disputable sense of the word, where we saw
         | that some new students and soldiers excelled at certain tasks
         | and struggled with others, and wanted to understand how best to
         | educated/assign them. And likewise, as we look at these tools,
         | the pressing question for engineers and businesses is "what are
         | they good for and what are they not good for" rather than the
         | fantastical "what if we make a broken program and it wants to
         | kill everyone and we don't notice and forget to shut it off"
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | There does seem to be a general factor of intelligence in
           | humans though that is the single biggest indicator of
           | performance. Yes there are other factors too.
           | 
           | >Here, the authors point out that the current batch of
           | programs are not good at tasks that benefit from a theory of
           | mind.
           | 
           | Not good at tasks that benefit from a theory of mind
           | extracted from visual data.
        
             | throwanem wrote:
             | "Seem" is doing a lot of work here. So is the implicit
             | claim that theory of mind in general can be demonstrated by
             | current-gen foundation models, and only those aspects
             | dependent on vision cannot.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | I say seem but it's stronger than that. all evidence and
               | testing points towards a general factor of intelligence.
               | The better you perform at one "kind" of intelligence
               | task, the better you will perform at them all. The shift
               | in defining intelligence didn't come from nowhere. Yes,
               | It's easy to think that there are multiple different
               | mutually exclusive-ish kinds of intelligences and that
               | you can excel in one and it has no bearing on performance
               | on the other but that's not really true. all indication
               | point otherwise. I'm not saying there aren't other
               | factors but generally, that's what you can expect.
               | 
               | Yes theory of mind can be demonstrated. Make up whatever
               | bespoke story you can with characters having varying
               | levels if intention and knowledge. Then query GPT-4 about
               | the state of the characters.
               | 
               | What i'm saying is that the vision component introduces
               | another point of error, is it a lack of theory of mind ?
               | or being yet unable to extract the necessary features
               | from visual data ? They rapidly learn to but Blind people
               | who could recognize squares by feel do not have the
               | ability to recognize squares by sight upon gaining
               | vision. https://www.projectprakash.org/_files/ugd/2af8ef_
               | 5a0c6250cc3...
        
               | pegasus wrote:
               | "Seem" only seems to be doing lots of work. Here's a
               | relevant article:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G_factor_(psychometrics)
        
           | menssen wrote:
           | For what it's worth, I don't take that framing of
           | intelligence seriously either. It's useful to have a word to
           | describe the far-future state of the increasing capabilities
           | of Computers.
           | 
           | I'm just saying that I don't think there's any point on that
           | line where we will be comfortable admitting that the machine
           | is "intelligent" or "conscious" or "AGI," or whatever, and
           | that I appreciate attempts to quantify (or at least qualify)
           | what we MEAN when we say that, rather than just goalpost-
           | moving.
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | Most of what you're saying here is describing the alignment
           | issue.
           | 
           | We (mostly) don't want unaligned A(G|S)I. The outcomes of
           | that could be extenstential.
        
             | swatcoder wrote:
             | Only for those mundane senses of alignment where we say
             | "This system is reliable in tasks that look like X and
             | unreliable in tasks that look like Y, so let's craft hard
             | boundaries to avoid naive use for Y"
             | 
             | But it's skeptical of the other sense alignment, where a
             | potential Master Strategist needs to be trained or crippled
             | before it outsmarts us. It sees that perspective as
             | comparable to logicians debating whether we might live in
             | the domain of a benevolent or evil omnipotence: "if an ant
             | is more powerful than a rock, and I'm more powerful than an
             | ant, then perhaps there is something so powerful that it
             | encompasses all opportunities to influence the universe
             | including the power to hide itself from me." -- which comes
             | from taking a concrete measure, assuming that it's an
             | independent variable, and then inductively extending it to
             | an infinite or otherwise unevidenced scale. This technique
             | is undisprovable and so it's easy for "rational" people to
             | mine work from it for a very long time, but history and
             | analysis give room for skeptics to be like "WTF you going
             | on about; let's have some tea"
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | " but history and analysis give room for skeptics to be
               | like
               | 
               | When the skeptic is correct. The problem with skeptics is
               | when incorrectness is not terminal, they can't hear you
               | over the sound of pushing the goal posts farther to give
               | a reasonable rebuttal for their originally incorrect
               | statements.
        
           | kens wrote:
           | > It [the word "intelligence"] doesn't appear until the early
           | 20th century
           | 
           | I'm not sure what you mean here, since the word dates back to
           | the late 14th century with roughly the same meaning as now.
           | Perhaps you're thinking of "intelligence quotient"?
           | 
           | https://www.etymonline.com/word/intelligence
        
             | swatcoder wrote:
             | Summary etymology can provide interesting reference points
             | when looking a the history of ideas, but isn't sufficient
             | because adjacent concepts change their meaning over time as
             | well. It's good for showing when a word was attested and
             | where to _start_ looking for an understanding of how it was
             | used and considered.
             | 
             | Where you say "roughly the same meaning as now" you seem to
             | mean that "the highest faculty of the mind, capacity for
             | comprehending general truths;" is how we think of
             | intelligence now, but the meanings of "mind", "truth"
             | "comprehending" and "faculties of mind" have all had their
             | own radical shifts over the last 600 years. That quoted
             | phrase conveys an entirely different perspective and set of
             | assumptions/implications in the context of its time, and is
             | not at all analogous to how we read it today.
             | 
             | Raymond Williams' "Keywords" collects a very interesting
             | and accessible collection of examples of this phenomenon,
             | although it focuses more on the language of politics and
             | society more than the language of psychology.
             | 
             | The modern use of intelligence, and the conceptual
             | constellation it represents, is essentially isolated from
             | what's described in that article, but it's re-introduction
             | in modern psychology does borrow from its prior existence
             | in the lexicon.
        
           | thewakalix wrote:
           | > and it wants to kill everyone
           | 
           | It wouldn't have to _want_ to kill everyone. As long as it
           | doesn 't want to _not_ kill everyone, the side effects of it
           | getting what it wants could be catastrophic.
           | 
           | > and we don't notice
           | 
           | How well do we understand what's going on inside ChatGPT? How
           | well will we understand the next?
           | 
           | > and forget to shut it off
           | 
           | Earlier I would have argued that sufficiently advanced AI
           | could prevent itself from being shut off via Things You
           | Didn't Expect, and would instrumentally want to preserve its
           | existence. But these days, people are giving ChatGPT not just
           | internet access but even actively handing it control over
           | various processes. At this rate, the first superhuman AI will
           | face not an impermeable box but a million conveniently
           | labeled levers!
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | > _Earlier I would have argued that sufficiently advanced
             | AI could prevent itself from being shut off via Things You
             | Didn 't Expect_
             | 
             | There's a good argument along these lines that I keep
             | reposting when someone asks if we can't just shut the AI
             | off. "All you gotta do is push a button, sir?"
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld-AKg9-xpM&t=30s
        
           | joe_the_user wrote:
           | _The way you 're using it when you worry about "super-
           | intelligence" is in the sense of intelligence being some
           | universal, unbounded, quantitative independent variable along
           | the lines of "the more intelligent something is, the more
           | cunningly it can pursue some rationalized goal" -- some
           | master strategist._
           | 
           | I appreciate the highlighting of the term intelligence being
           | ill-defined. Moreover, it's certainly true that "AI safety
           | analysts" takes intelligence as a sort magic wand term and
           | this seems to drive their arguments.
           | 
           | All that said, since both computers and human brains are
           | material artifacts, it doesn't seem impossible to create a
           | device that combines their properties. It seems plausible
           | that such a thing could have a variety of dangers.
           | 
           |  _For many, an "super-intelligent" software whose "motives"
           | we don't understand is just a program that produces incorrect
           | outputs and ought to be debugged or retired, and the more
           | interesting questions around machine "intelligence" are
           | practical ones like "what tasks are these programs well-
           | suited for"._
           | 
           | We saw early Bing Chat behave, not in ways we couldn't
           | understand but like a deranged and vengeful human. Certainly,
           | it was merely simulating human behavior but if today's
           | methods produce artifacts that unselectively amplify human
           | behaviors, it's not hard to imagine problems appearing.
           | 
           | We can hope that there's a fundamental difference between
           | programs that simulate human language and programs able to
           | plan and carry out long term goals (and carrying out long
           | term goals is something people do so there's no good reason
           | some kind of program couldn't do that).
           | 
           | I think you're right that particular weirdness of the
           | "doomers" makes some other portion of the population dismiss
           | concerns. But that isn't an argument that the doom isn't
           | possible - it should be an argument to clarify how we talk of
           | computation and human capacities (see, I don't to say
           | "intelligence" unless I want to).
        
       | huijzer wrote:
       | EDIT: Nevermind
        
         | AlecSchueler wrote:
         | Why does it have to remain the case or "age well" to be valid?
         | They're studying the situation today.
        
       | fnordpiglet wrote:
       | In Buddhism there's the idea that our core self is awareness,
       | which is silent - it doesn't think in a perceptible way, it
       | doesn't feel in a visceral way, but it underpins thought and
       | feeling, and is greatly impacted by it. A large part of
       | meditation and "release of suffering" is learning to let your
       | awareness lead your thinking rather than your thinking lead your
       | awareness.
       | 
       | To be clear, I think this is in fact a correct assessment of the
       | architecture of intelligence. You can suspend thought and still
       | function throughout your day in all ways. Discursive thought is
       | entirely unnecessary, but it is often helpful for planning.
       | 
       | My observation of LLMs in such a construction of intelligence is
       | they are entirely the thinking mind - verbal, articulate, but
       | unmoored. There is no, for lack of a better word, "soul," or that
       | internal awareness that underpins that discursive thinking mind.
       | And because that underlying awareness is non articulate and not
       | directly observable by our thinking and feeling mind, we really
       | don't understand it or have a science about it. To that end, it's
       | really hard to pin specifically what is missing in LLMs because
       | we don't really understand ourselves beyond our observable
       | thinking and emotive minds.
       | 
       | I look at what we are doing with LLMs and adjacent technologies
       | and I wonder if this is sufficient, and building an AGI is
       | perhaps not nearly as useful as we might think, if what we mean
       | is build an awareness. Power tools of the thinking mind are
       | amazingly powerful. Agency and awareness - to what end?
       | 
       | And once we do build an awareness, can we continue to consider it
       | a tool?
        
         | danenania wrote:
         | Another idea from Buddhism is that this core of awareness
         | you're talking about is nothingness. So when you stop all
         | thought (if such a thing is really possible), you temporarily
         | cease to exist as an individual consciousness. "Awareness" is
         | when the thoughts come back online and you think "whoa, I was
         | just gone for a bit".
         | 
         | If that's how it works, then the "soul" is more like an
         | emergent phenomenon created by the interplay between the
         | various layers of conscious thought and the base layer of
         | nothingness when it's all turned off. That architecture
         | wouldn't necessarily be so difficult to replicate in AI
         | systems.
        
           | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
           | > So when you stop all thought (if such a thing is really
           | possible),
           | 
           | It's not. They don't realize it, they're merely referring to
           | stopping your internal monologue. There are dozens of other
           | mental processes going on in any given waking moment. Even
           | actual top shelf cognition is going on, it just occurs in a
           | "language of thought".
        
             | astrange wrote:
             | > It's not. They don't realize it, they're merely referring
             | to stopping your internal monologue.
             | 
             | They certainly have realized that. It's one of the first
             | things you notice doing awareness meditation; thoughts
             | appear from nowhere even if you didn't try to think them.
        
               | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
               | > thoughts appear from nowhere even if you didn't try to
               | think them.
               | 
               | This isn't a joke? Like, that actually happens to people?
               | I thought it was just to exaggerate how poorly the minds
               | of dumb people work.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | That seems like an unusually rude thing to say about
               | Buddha. You might be experiencing dukkha.
        
               | fnordpiglet wrote:
               | Are you saying every thought you've ever had is a logical
               | consequence of all prior thoughts with a definite
               | traceable lineage? (Assuming your mind was too dumb as
               | some point and a thought emerged that originated all
               | future thoughts)
        
               | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
               | I'm saying that I'm extremely confident that...
               | 
               | 1. Most people (including Buddhists) think that their
               | internal monologue comprises their thoughts, in majority
               | or even in total.
               | 
               | 2. Can't conceive of the possibility of a thought
               | existing other than expressed in their spoken language
               | 
               | 3. Find it difficult or impossible to suppress their
               | inner monologue.
               | 
               | 4. When successful at suppressing it believe that their
               | thoughts have ceased.
               | 
               | 5. Are apparently unaware of the paradox that belief
               | entails... if they are no longer thinking, how is the
               | decision made to initiate thinking once more? That's a
               | conscious decision, or else successful Buddhists would
               | turn into vegetables and die of starvation in their
               | little meditation pose.
               | 
               | This isn't a matter of speculation anymore. We can see
               | inside the brain, non-invasively, while these things
               | occur. Any mystical element is an artifact of people
               | poorly defining words, or being completely ignorant of
               | how a brain must operate in principle. You're all very
               | confused.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | I didn't say anything mystical.
               | 
               | > Most people (including Buddhists) think that their
               | internal monologue comprises their thoughts
               | 
               | And they don't think this, in fact they think the
               | opposite.
               | 
               | You seem to be offended I used the expression "from
               | nowhere" instead of "from your unconscious" or something.
        
           | fnordpiglet wrote:
           | I think what you mean is that in Buddhism there is no self
           | beyond the self implied by your thinking mind. The
           | nothingness you refer to is the eschewing of attachment to
           | what isn't and being simply what is. It doesn't mean a void,
           | it means that all existence is within the awareness, which
           | isn't directly observable and is constantly changing. As
           | such, it's effectively nothing - except it is literally all
           | you are. Your past and memories are just crude encodings, the
           | future is a delusion. Your self identity has almost nothing
           | to do with who you actually are right now. Your
           | dissatisfaction with your situation isn't meaningfully
           | different from your delight in some experience - they're both
           | transient, and are just experiences of the present. You can
           | avoid unpleasantness, and enjoy pleasure, but holding onto
           | and seeking or avoiding entangles your awareness in what
           | isn't to the determinant of what is. As you continue
           | releasing the various attachments and let the awareness take
           | hold, and actions come naturally without thought or
           | attachment, you cease suffering and cease causing suffering.
           | 
           | But to my understanding the idea of nothingness being some
           | objective in Buddhism isn't the case - but it's often
           | described as such because that state of pure awareness
           | without encumbering thought and attachment in many ways to an
           | unpracticed person feels like nothingness. After all, the
           | awareness is silent, even if it is where all thought and
           | feeling spring from.
           | 
           | Finally, awareness isn't that moment you snap back to
           | thought. You're always aware. We just tend to be primarily
           | aware of our thoughts and emotions. We walk around in a haze
           | of the past and future and fiction as the world ticks by
           | around us, and we tend to live in what isn't rather than what
           | is. You don't disappear in the sense that you cease to be as
           | an individual mind, you are always yourself - that's a
           | tautology. What you lose is the sense of some identity that's
           | separate from what you ARE in this very moment. You aren't a
           | programmer, you aren't a Democrat, you aren't a XYZ. You are
           | what you are, and what that is changes constantly, so can't
           | be singularly defined or held onto as some consistent thing
           | over time with labels and structure. You just simply are.
        
             | danenania wrote:
             | I'm not an expert in Buddhism, but from what I've read I
             | think your interpretation may be a bit reductive of the
             | many strains of thought that exist within Buddhism.
             | 
             | "You don't disappear in the sense that you cease to be as
             | an individual mind, you are always yourself - that's a
             | tautology. What you lose is the sense of some identity
             | that's separate from what you ARE in this very moment."
             | 
             | This assumes that there's any concept of "you" that exists
             | independent of your thoughts whatsoever. I think you're
             | right that some Buddhist thinkers believe in this kind of
             | essential awareness underlying conscious thought that
             | you're describing, but others would say there is literally
             | nothing underneath. "The self is an illusion", "all is
             | emptiness", etc. If you believe in those ideas, then you
             | have no awareness independent of conscious thought because
             | there is no _you_ independent of conscious thought.
        
         | jacobsimon wrote:
         | This is a profound question but I also wonder if this non-
         | thinking "awareness" you're referring to is largely defined by
         | quieting the thinking mind and listening to the senses more
         | directly. A lot of meditation is about tuning out thoughts and
         | focusing on proprioception like breathing, the feelings of the
         | body, etc.
        
           | vjerancrnjak wrote:
           | Fundamentally, this "awareness" isn't defined by quieting the
           | thinking. It is a description of fundamental reality. No
           | individual should be able to experience it, and the
           | "glimpses" are just forms of brain dysfunction.
           | 
           | Meditation techniques that focus on breath or the body are an
           | attempt to make you do the breathing/sensing consciously. If
           | you film yourself and later look at what you did, you'll
           | notice you aren't breathing well when you're breathing
           | consciously, so you're probably depriving yourself of oxygen,
           | lowering blood concentration in certain brain regions and you
           | hope it will be the brain region associated with
           | conceptualizing, language etc.
           | 
           | You can do the same with sleep. You can try to consciously
           | fall asleep, and just like breathing, you will have a hard
           | time because there's a reason why falling asleep is not
           | conscious (or in other words it does not go through the
           | regions of the brain that conceptualize). You can experience
           | the balance center shutting down (feels like falling or
           | turning) and you can go even deeper and feel the fear of the
           | "ego" dying (temporarily). What remains is definitely much
           | different than waking or dreaming state. But it is still not
           | that "awareness/nothingness".
        
             | fnordpiglet wrote:
             | I think this is entirely incorrect. Vipassana meditation,
             | the type focused on breathing, require intense awareness of
             | your breathing and physical body. It's a similar state to
             | when you intensely focus on what's around you and
             | everything gets brighter and more vibrant and you pick out
             | a lot of details you normally don't notice because you're
             | distracted by your thoughts.
             | 
             | If you're doing it the way intended you would 100% be aware
             | of your irregular breath or pausing. In fact beginners
             | vipassana often advises counting the breaths individually
             | in a cycle 1..10, and resetting the count when you lose
             | track of your breathing. You intensely focus on the
             | sensation of the air moving through your nostrils, the
             | muscles contracting, your clothing shifting.
             | 
             | However it's not about _controlling_ your breathing, so
             | it's not the same as breathing consciously. It's observing
             | passively. Often you'll notice that you are breathing
             | irregularly, not because of the meditation, but because you
             | typically are stressed and tight in your musculature due to
             | the way you're thinking. You can then loosen and reset your
             | patterns of breath to be more natural, deep, and complete.
             | 
             | A goal isn't to stop with observing the breath though, and
             | you work towards having a total awareness of the entire
             | body at once, shifting your center of existence from your
             | head to the rest of your body. You then incorporate sounds
             | and events in your environment. This requires an intense
             | amount of mental power, and is entirely different from your
             | description of oxygen deprivation. Thought ceases because
             | it interferes with being aware, not because you are
             | experiencing brain death.
        
         | sdwr wrote:
         | Maybe the soul is social, and oriented towards others? I
         | believe it can be constructed.
         | 
         | If you assume that "the eyes are the window to the soul", you
         | notice some interesting properties.
         | 
         | 1. It is far more observable from the outside (eyes
         | open/lidded/closed, emotion read in eyes)
         | 
         | 2. It affects behavior in a diffuse way
         | 
         | 3. It pays attention but does not dictate
        
           | munificent wrote:
           | _> Maybe the soul is social_
           | 
           | My pet theory about human consciousness is that is that
           | consciousness is simply recursive theory of mind. Theory of
           | mind [1] is our ability to simulate and reason about the
           | mental states of others. It's how we predict what people are
           | thinking and how they will react to our actions, which is
           | critical for choosing how to act in a social environment.
           | 
           | But when you're thinking about what's in someone's head, one
           | of the things might be _them thinking about you_. So now you
           | 're imagining _your own mind_ from the perspective of another
           | mind. I believe that 's entirely what our sense of
           | consciousness is. It's our social reasoning applied to
           | ourselves.
           | 
           | If my pet theory is correct, it implies that the level of
           | consciousness of any species would directly correlate to how
           | social the species is. Solitary animals with little need for
           | theory of mind would have no self awareness in the way that
           | we experience it. They'd live in a zen-like perpetual auto-
           | pilot where they _do_ but couldn 't _explain_ why they do
           | what they do... because they will never explain it to anyone
           | anyway.
           | 
           | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_mind
        
             | crdrost wrote:
             | Theory of mind is interesting but one wouldn't want to
             | hinge consciousness upon it.
             | 
             | That direction would likely contain weird outcomes if the
             | science progressed, something like "Dogs are barely-
             | conscious due to their pack structure, they have a couple
             | levels of recursive theory of mind but they can't sustain
             | it as deep as we can. But cats didn't have that pack
             | structure, they're not conscious at all." Or, "this person
             | has such severe autism that he cannot fundamentally
             | understand others' minds or what others interpret his mind
             | to be, so we've downgraded his classification to
             | unconscious. He'll talk your ear off about the various cars
             | produced in a golden age between 1972 and 1984, but because
             | he doesn't really know what it means for you to be
             | listening we regard it as sleep-talking."
             | 
             | It also just kind of doesn't sound right. "What happens
             | when we go to sleep? Well, we stop thinking about what
             | others think we think, and we simply accept what they think
             | about us." That doesn't sound like any sleep I experience
             | -- it might describe some of my dreams, but of course
             | dreams are anomalous conscious experiences that happen
             | during sleep so that also misses the mark.
        
               | sdwr wrote:
               | Sounds about right to me, honestly. In my experience, if
               | the theory is predictive, insulting, and has societal
               | ramifications, it's usually correct.
               | 
               | Let's say the soul is exclusively located in eye-to-eye
               | contact. Theres a lot of information in how that contact
               | is broken, how long its broken for, and what happens in
               | between.
               | 
               | (Enemy's-gate-is-down-style reorientation)
        
               | munificent wrote:
               | "Consciousness" is one of those loaded words that means a
               | few different things in different contexts. When I say
               | consciousness is about recursive theory of mind, I'm not
               | trying to say that when you're asleep you're unable to do
               | social reasoning. That's a different use of the same
               | word.
               | 
               | I mean "conscious" in the sense of self-awareness or
               | sentience.
               | 
               | I'm also not ascribing any moral or cognitive superiority
               | or inferiority to different levels of it. The fact that a
               | cat might be less self-aware of its suffering because it
               | think about how it would explain its pain to other cats
               | does mean imply that I'm saying it should be OK to
               | torture cats.
               | 
               | I'm just interested in what is going in human brains when
               | we "feel self-aware". What are we doing when we're
               | thinking about what we're doing? Where does that sense of
               | perceptual distance come from when we are aware of
               | ourselves? And my pet theory is that the distance comes
               | from imagining how we look through others' eyes and
               | developed from our highly advanced social reasoning.
        
             | jacobsimon wrote:
             | You might find this book interesting! This is essentially
             | the theory put forward. https://www.google.com/books/editio
             | n/Consciousness_and_the_S...
        
               | munificent wrote:
               | Ah, that looks perfect! Thank you! I knew other people
               | smarter than me must have stumbled onto this idea as
               | well.
        
             | passion__desire wrote:
             | A Possible Evolutionary Reason for Why We Seem to Have
             | Continuity of Consciousness and Personality.
             | 
             | Thesis : The very thing (a brain module) which allows for
             | outside object continuity, that same brain module maintains
             | inside self / personality / identity continuity.
             | 
             | Reasoning :
             | 
             | Evolution found out modelling the outside world is helpful
             | for survival. Some eons later, it figured out modelling
             | yourself (self / agent) modelling the outside world is also
             | helpful. In the outside world, we keep track of continuity
             | of objects through a brain module which hones in on the
             | essence of objects (e.g. tracking a prey or predator.) so
             | that EXACT matching algorithms aren't applied but ONLY
             | approximate ones. As soon as a high enough approximate
             | match (>95%) is found, we "register" it to be an exact
             | match. i.e. the Brain bumps up the confidence level to
             | 100%. This is also the reason why we consider our friend
             | Bob to be the same childhood Bob even though he has
             | different hairstyle, clothes, and other such properties. We
             | don't call Bob who looks different than yesterday as an
             | Imposter. The damage to this brain module could lead us to
             | call Bob today an imposter. This same module also tracks
             | continuity of self in a similar manner. Even though our
             | "self" changes from childhood to adult we "register"
             | "changing self" to be the same thing. i.e. internally we
             | bump up the confidence to 100% when memories, etc. match
             | and provide a coherent picture of the self. A multiple
             | personality disorder is just different stable states of
             | neural attractor states. Continuity is local to a
             | personality but not global and hence transient. This local
             | continuity of information could link up globally, giving
             | rise to coherent single personality.
             | 
             | Capgras Syndrome :
             | 
             | Ramachandran Capgras Delusion Case :
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xczrDAGfT4
        
             | Davidzheng wrote:
             | If this is correct, do you think GPT5 will be conscious
             | because its training data will include a lot of itself
             | (albeit GPT4 not 5)
        
               | munificent wrote:
               | I'm sorry, but I honestly don't find philosophical
               | questions about the intelligence or sentience of
               | generative AI interesting _at all_.
        
           | ctoth wrote:
           | > If you assume that "the eyes are the window to the soul",
           | you notice some interesting properties.
           | 
           | And people say LLM output is nonsense.
           | 
           | I'm blind with glass eyeballs. Does this mean my soul is
           | easier to access than yours? Or is it harder because there's
           | something specific about the eyeball that makes it the
           | window?
        
         | dimal wrote:
         | I've been thinking along similar lines. It's like with LLMs,
         | they've created the part of the mind that is endlessly
         | chattering, generating stories, sometimes true, sometimes
         | false, but there's no awareness or consciousness that ever
         | steps back and can see thoughts as thoughts. And I don't see
         | how awareness or consciousness would arise from just more of
         | the same (bigger models). It seems to be a fundamentally
         | different part of the mind. I wonder if AGI is possible without
         | this. AGI under some definition (good enough to replace most
         | humans) may be possible. But it wouldn't be aware. And without
         | awareness, I don't see how it could be aligned. It may appear
         | to be aligned but then eventually it would probably get caught
         | in a delusional feedback loop that it has no capacity to
         | escape, because it can't be aware of its own delusion.
        
           | hotpotamus wrote:
           | > It may appear to be aligned but then eventually it would
           | probably get caught in a delusional feedback loop that it has
           | no capacity to escape, because it can't be aware of its own
           | delusion.
           | 
           | I believe this is more or less the definition of human mental
           | illness. I have to say that while I know it's really not
           | possible, I wish people would stop pulling on these threads.
           | I got into this line of work because I thought video games
           | were cool, not because I wanted to philosophize about
           | theories of mind and what intelligence is. I really don't
           | like thinking about whether I'm just some sort of automaton
           | made out of meat rather than metal and silicon.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | Ah, the first releases of the Bing AI were fun here as they
             | plunged into feedback loops of madness that were scarily
             | human sounding. Thank you humanity for making artificial
             | insanity.
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox
         | 
         | While you're adding a bunch of eastern philosophy to it, we
         | need to take a step back from 'human' intelligence and go to
         | animal and plant intelligence to get a better idea of the
         | massive variation in what covers thought. In animal/insects we
         | can see that thinking is not some binary function of on or off.
         | It is an immense range of different electrical and chemical
         | processes that involve everything from the brain and the nerves
         | along with chemical signaling from cells. In things like plants
         | and molds 'thinking' doesn't even involve nerves, it's a
         | chemical process.
         | 
         | A good example of this at the human level is a reflex. Your
         | hand didn't go back to your brain to ask for instructions on
         | how to get away from the fire. That's encoded in the meat and
         | nerves of your arm by systems that are much older than higher
         | intelligence. All the systems for breath, drink, eat, procreate
         | were in place long before high level intelligence existed.
         | Intelligence just happens to be a new floor stacked hastily on
         | top of these legacy systems that happened to be beneficial
         | enough it didn't go extinct.
         | 
         | Awareness is another one of those very deep rabbit hole
         | questions. There are 'intelligent' animals without self
         | awareness, but with awareness of the world around them. And
         | they obviously have agency. Of course this is where the AI
         | existentialists come in and say wrapping up agency, awareness,
         | and superintelligence may not work out for humans as well as we
         | expect.
        
           | thegiogi wrote:
           | > A good example of this at the human level is a reflex. Your
           | hand didn't go back to your brain to ask for instructions on
           | how to get away from the fire.
           | 
           | Is this actually true? I thought it just involved a different
           | part of the brain. Is there actually no brain involvement?
           | Sure it does not need your awareness or decision making, but
           | no brain? I find that hard to believe.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflex_arc
             | 
             | Simple answer: No, it does not go to the brain
             | 
             | Detailed answer: We are complex as all hell.
             | 
             | >A reflex arc is a neural pathway that controls a reflex.
             | In vertebrates, most sensory neurons do not pass directly
             | into the brain, but synapse in the spinal cord. This allows
             | for faster reflex actions to occur by activating spinal
             | motor neurons without the delay of routing signals through
             | the brain. The brain will receive the input while the
             | reflex is being carried out and the analysis of the signal
             | takes place after the reflex action.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | One way of seeing a subset of reflex behavior is
               | _speculative execution_ - as in, you 'll start executing
               | on stimulus before the brain has a chance to evaluate it,
               | but when it eventually does, it may cancel the reflexive
               | action. This is absurdly efficient if your reflexes are
               | well-calibrated.
        
         | Merrill wrote:
         | Decision making seems fundamental to intelligence, is done by
         | animals and humans, and can be done without the use of language
         | or logic. This is the case when someone "decided without
         | thinking".
         | 
         | Decision making requires imagination or the ability to envision
         | alternative future states that may result from various choices.
         | 
         | Imagination is the start of abstract thinking. Consciousness
         | results from the individual thinking abstractly about itself
         | and how it interacts with the world.
        
       | deeviant wrote:
       | > A chief goal of artificial intelligence is to build machines
       | that think like people.
       | 
       | I disagree with the topic sentence.
       | 
       | The goal should not be to "build machines that think like
       | people", but to build machines that think, period. The way humans
       | think is unlikely to be the optimal way to go about thinking
       | anyways.
       | 
       | Instead of talking about thinking, we should be talking about
       | function. Less philosophy and more reality. Can the system reason
       | itself through various representative challenges as well as or
       | better than human? If yes, it doesn't much matter _how_ it does
       | it. In fact, it 's probably for the best if we can create AI that
       | thinks completely different than humans, has no consciousness or
       | self awareness, but still can do what humans can do and more.
        
         | trash_cat wrote:
         | We don't make planes based on how birds flap their wings.
        
         | randcraw wrote:
         | The topic sentence was the mantra of nearly all AI research
         | back in the days of good-old-fashioned-AI, AKA symbolic AI.
         | Understanding how reasoning is implemented by our brains was a
         | much more compelling prospect than being able to implement
         | 'intelligence' compositionally but _without_ understanding how
         | software achieved it -- which is largely where we find
         | ourselves now. Today 's AI is theory-free leaving us
         | unenlightened about the continuum of intelligence -- across
         | species, or within a human as our brain matures or goes
         | pathological.
         | 
         | Many scientists outside the AI field have long shared an
         | interest in the objective of how to "think like people" using
         | software. Far fewer care if the AI is inexplicable (or if it
         | can't be dissected into constituent components, thereby
         | enabling us to explore the mind's constraints and dependencies
         | among its cognitive processes).
        
         | mcguire wrote:
         | The problem here is, how do you know that your machine thinks
         | if it doesn't think like humans?
         | 
         | Game AIs are functionally much better than humans but no one
         | believes they can think, right?
         | 
         | Oh, but if you are arguing for AI from a specialized tool
         | standpoint and not a general intelligence standpoint, if you
         | are talking about "weak" AI rather than "strong" AI, then I'm
         | right there with you. :-)
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | The problem here is this breaks the much more complicated issue
         | of alignment.
         | 
         | The paperclip optimizer is a great parable here. If you build
         | your intelligence to build as many paperclips as cheaply as
         | possible don't be surprised when said intelligence disassembles
         | you and the rest of the universe to do so.
         | 
         | So yea, HOW starts mattering a whole lot when you want to
         | ensure it understands that it shouldn't do some particular
         | things.
        
       | aaroninsf wrote:
       | It is refreshing that the author's language expresses their
       | findings as indicative of domains for attention and presumed
       | improvement, rather than (as so is often the case, per Ximm's
       | Law) making pronouncements which preclude such improvement!
        
       | tinco wrote:
       | I think that if they would, that would be very surprising and
       | indicative of a lot of wastefulness inside the model
       | architecture. All these tests are simple single prompt
       | experiments, so the LLM's get no chance to reason about their
       | responses. They're just system 1 thinking, the equivalent of
       | putting a gun to someone's head and asking them to solve a large
       | division in 2 seconds.
       | 
       | I bet a lot of these experiments would already solvable by
       | putting the LLM in a simple loop with some helper prompts that
       | make it restructure and validate its answers, form theories and
       | get to explore multiple lines of thought.
       | 
       | If an LLM would be able to do that in a single prompt, without a
       | loop (so the LLM always answers in a predictable amount of time),
       | then it would mean its entire reasoning structure is repeated
       | horizontally through the layers of its architecture. That would
       | be both limiting (i.e. limit the depth of the reasoning to the
       | width of the network) and very expensive to train.
        
         | uoaei wrote:
         | > They're just system 1 thinking, the equivalent of putting a
         | gun to someone's head and asking them to solve a large division
         | in 2 seconds.
         | 
         | No, it's the equivalent of putting a gun to someone's head and
         | asking them "what are my intentions?" Which is readily
         | available to any being with a theory of mind.
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | LLMs don't fail those kind of tasks though. 4 is very good at
           | keeping track of who knows what and why in a story. You can
           | test this yourself.
        
           | choudharism wrote:
           | I don't think LLMs have theory of mind, but your point is not
           | very strong. You can literally query ChatGPT right now and
           | see that it can figure out intentions (both superficial and
           | deep) of a gun is held to a head quite easily.
           | 
           | Because, obviously, training data probably includes a decent
           | amount of motivation breakdowns as a function of coercion.
           | 
           | It doesn't know why, but it knows what to say.
        
           | FrustratedMonky wrote:
           | Don't think so.
           | 
           | Put gun to persons ahead.
           | 
           | Ask them to do a division.
           | 
           | Then screaming at them "HOW DID YOU DO THAT, TELL ME NOW, OR
           | YOU'RE TOAST".
           | 
           | Even most humans would splutter and not be able to answer.
        
             | uoaei wrote:
             | The division problem is arbitrary and irrelevant to any
             | notion of theory of mind. If you have a better example, you
             | can feel free to offer one. I already did so above.
        
               | FrustratedMonky wrote:
               | The point is not about the example of division, it is
               | about 'tell me your intentions'.
               | 
               | A human also can't explain how their neurons calculated a
               | division, or anything else, or 'intention', even if a gun
               | is pointed at them.
               | 
               | So, why is that a fault of AI if it can't explain how
               | itself is working? It is not a requirement for AGI.
        
               | uoaei wrote:
               | Every point you made here either reiterates something
               | I've already said or misinterprets the nature of the
               | discussion altogether.
        
           | bongodongobob wrote:
           | What? My answer would be "I have no idea!"
           | 
           | Are they faking it? Will they murder me? Are they just trying
           | to scare me?
           | 
           | I don't understand the point you're trying to make.
        
         | rf15 wrote:
         | they can't reason though, sadly - the premise does not hold.
        
           | FrustratedMonky wrote:
           | So your premise is correct? Please back up the opposite. If
           | you can, you should publish.
           | 
           | These responses are logically the same as "No You".
        
           | TeMPOraL wrote:
           | That's literally GP's point though - they don't reason
           | _because_ reasoning requires a loop, which you deny them and
           | then say  "see, it can't reason".
        
         | Androider wrote:
         | The equivalent for a human would be an reflexive response to a
         | question, the kind you could immediately answer after being
         | woken up at 3am in the morning. That type of answer has been
         | deeply trained into the human networks and also requires no
         | deep insight.
         | 
         | But if a human is allowed time and internal reasoning
         | iterations, so should the LLM when determining if it has deep
         | insight. Right now we're simply observing input -> output of
         | LLMs, the equivalent of snap answers from a human. But nothing
         | says it couldn't instead be an input -> extensive internal
         | dialogue, maybe even between multiple expert models for
         | seconds, minutes or hours, that are not at all visible to the
         | prompter -> final insightful answer. Maybe future LLMs will
         | say, "let me get back to you on that".
        
           | I_Am_Nous wrote:
           | This reminds me of _The Last Question_ by Isaac Asimov. I
           | also think if we stopped expecting all LLMs to have an
           | immediate answer, it would be relatively easy to shim some
           | kind of  "conscience" to direct the output in different ways.
           | Similar to the safeties already in place in LLMs, but instead
           | of it just saying "NO DON'T SAY THAT" it can dialog
           | internally to change what the output is until it reaches what
           | it believes to be the agreed upon best answer.
        
             | lifeisstillgood wrote:
             | It would have an emotional reaction to certain "thought
             | constructs" and would be guided by that.
             | 
             | Or we could just give them three laws
        
               | I_Am_Nous wrote:
               | With current LLMs the three laws might be tough to
               | implement in a way that can't be prompt injected around.
               | That's why I described the extra bits as a "conscience"
               | which could enforce the three laws. Maybe the three laws
               | are the internal conscience's context prompt while the
               | main LLM is more able to think anything in general and
               | then the output is tuned down by the conscience?
               | 
               | Otherwise the laws will have to be implemented as weights
               | or during training so the model explicitly knows the laws
               | and would never even be capable of doing something
               | against them.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | I mean, the whole purpose of the I, Robot story was to
               | show you that the 3 laws didn't work. We had the first
               | story on prompt injection decades ago and we just didn't
               | realize it.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | Obligatory reminder that the "three laws" were invented
               | to be deconstructed, with Asimov spending a lot of pages
               | showing many ways in which they completely fail,
               | illustrating that _AI alignment is a hard problem_.
        
             | mr_toad wrote:
             | > I also think if we stopped expecting all LLMs to have an
             | immediate answer, it would be relatively easy to shim some
             | kind of "conscience" to direct the output in different
             | ways.
             | 
             | If the shim was just another AI, then how do you align that
             | AI? Who watches the watchers? But if it was a deterministic
             | algorithm it would probably fail for the same reasons that
             | algorithmic AI never went anywhere.
        
               | I_Am_Nous wrote:
               | A great point! A smaller AI with a rather limited
               | parameter count could be trained for individual needs so
               | some things (chat moderation) might be easier to do than
               | other things (fact check peer reviewed papers in a
               | verifiable way). For some use cases it would be overkill
               | to have a conscience but an AI spokesperson for a company
               | will probably have a company-aligned conscience for
               | obvious reasons.
        
           | lukev wrote:
           | Completely agree.
           | 
           | From a computer science point of view: a single
           | prompt/response cycle from a LLM is equivalent to a pure
           | function; the answer is a function of the prompt and the
           | model weights and is fundamentally reducible to solving a big
           | math equation (in which each model parameter is a term.)
           | 
           | It seems almost self evident that "reasoning" worthy of the
           | name would involve some sort of iterative/recursive search
           | process, invoking the model and storing/reflecting/improving
           | on answers methodically.
           | 
           | There's been a lot of movement in this direction with tree-
           | of-thought/chain-of-thought/graph-of-thought prompting, and I
           | would bet that if/when we get AGI, it's a result of getting
           | the right recursive prompting pattern + retrieval patterns +
           | ensemble models figured out, not just making ever-more-
           | powerful transformer models (thought that would certainly
           | play a role too.)
           | 
           | The LLM isn't the whole brain. Just the area responsible for
           | language and cultural memory.
        
             | kaba0 wrote:
             | Ideally a recursive execution would also be a pure function
             | - maybe a better way to put it about current LLMs is that
             | they are a single mathematical expression being built up
             | from a fix number of nodes and only addition and
             | multiplication.
        
               | lukev wrote:
               | yes, except the "reasoning" process should also be able
               | to look up facts (retrieval) and invoke external tools,
               | making it non-pure.
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | I think on of the reasons we require so much data is that we
           | try to bake all that "simulated experience and internal
           | dialogue" into the snap responses. I bet if you could do an
           | efficient sim/test retraining, you'd do data-driven responses
           | on the fly.
        
         | two_in_one wrote:
         | Just note that loop doesn't have to be visible from outside. It
         | can be internal, with another driving thread asking right
         | questions. Inner monologue. Then the summary is given back to
         | user. This will give the model space for 'thinking' with
         | internally generated text much large than the visible prompt +
         | output. This way multi-step logic can be implemented.
        
         | lixy wrote:
         | Yep, prototype exactly that this past week. With a strong
         | instruction spec prompt from the start, you can have an AI come
         | up with a much better answer by making sure it knows it has
         | time to answer the questions and how it should approach the
         | problem in stages.
         | 
         | The great part is with clear enough directions it also knows
         | how to evaluate whether its done or not.
        
         | twobitshifter wrote:
         | There are plenty of models that use introspection and check
         | answers, that's the idea behind let's think about it step by
         | step.
        
           | tinco wrote:
           | I feel the "let's think about it step by step" is a bit of a
           | hack. To circumvent the fact that there's no external loop
           | you use the fact that it gets re-run on every token so you
           | can store a bit of state in the tokens that it's already
           | generated.
           | 
           | Or am I misunderstanding something about that technique?
        
             | twobitshifter wrote:
             | You are right, it's sometimes called zero shot chain of
             | thought, but it's a way of getting the type of thing you
             | are describing to happen. The LLMs somehow process things
             | in a perceived step by step to get a much improved answer.
             | Whether the external loop or an llm imposed internal loop,
             | does it matter? Are our own minds looping or just adding
             | tokens?
        
               | tinco wrote:
               | Yeah that's true, and I do believe there's a good chance
               | our minds are perpetually adding tokens. But our minds
               | also have an efficient/effective way of dealing with the
               | context cut off. We don't have (or we don't experience) a
               | hard cut off of our memory context. Instead the tokens
               | are increasingly lossily compressed as they age out of
               | our memory, the lossiness amount being based both on time
               | passed but also on some fancy value function. And that
               | combined with a "system" (or trained/fine-tuned in)
               | prompt that motivates the LLM to reason in a way that is
               | conducive to working with that kind of memory would be a
               | sort of single-shot AGI system. Where single-shot is
               | lying a bit because it's just infinitely looping.
               | 
               | I guess from that perspective it might make sense to test
               | if such a thing is already happening in current LLM's and
               | my dismissive attitude stems from the fact that I've
               | played with them enough to know that they currently
               | don't.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | The main thing that may matter, at least in the short
               | run, is that an external loop allows _us_ to inject
               | additional steps by applying heuristics and allowing tool
               | use. E.g. we can let the LLM  "realise" there errors in
               | its code and have it continue from an injected "thought"
               | about making sure to fix the errors from the compiler
               | before presenting it's output, or "remembering" that it
               | needs test cases etc.
               | 
               | We can also potentially add longer term memory -
               | summarise the context, and judge which parts are
               | important and stuff them in a vector store, and now and
               | again swap in similar pieces of past context.
               | 
               | But of course it's not either or - better prompting to
               | get the LLMs to do better from the start doesn't compete
               | with then feeding that into an external loop _as well_.
        
       | fredliu wrote:
       | I have small kids, toddlers, who can already speak the language
       | but still developing their "sense of the world" or "theory of
       | mind" if you will. Maybe it's just me, but talking to toddlers
       | often reminds me of interacting with LLMs, where you would have
       | this realization from time to time "oh, they don't get this, need
       | to break down more to explain". Of course LLM has more elaborate
       | language skills due to its exposure to a lot more text (toddlers
       | definitely can't speak like Shakespeare if you ask them, unless,
       | maybe, you are the tiger parents that's been feeding them Romeo
       | and Juliet since 1.), but their ability of "reasoning" and
       | "understanding" seems to be on a similar level. Of course, the
       | other "big" difference, is that you expect toddlers to "learn and
       | grow" to eventually be able to understand and develop meta
       | cognitive abilities, while LLMs, unless you retrain them (maybe
       | with another architecture, or meta architecture), "stay the
       | same".
        
         | passion__desire wrote:
         | It's not just true about toddlers but also for adults in
         | particular time frame. Maturity of thought is cultural
         | phenomenon. Descartes used to think animals are automaton while
         | they behaved exactly like humans in almost all aspects in which
         | he could investigate animals and humans during those times and
         | yet he reached illogical conclusion.
        
           | fredliu wrote:
           | That's a great point. Just thinking out loud, if we can time
           | travel back to the cavemen time, and assuming we speak their
           | language, there would still be so much that we couldn't
           | explain or they wont' be able to understand even for the
           | smartest cavemen adults. Unless, of course we spend
           | significant time and effort to "bring them up to speed" with
           | modern education.
        
             | kbelder wrote:
             | In Jayne's 'The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of
             | the Bicameral Mind', there's some interesting investigation
             | into some of our oldest known tales... Beowulf, The Iliad,
             | etc.
             | 
             | In those texts, emotional and mental states are almost
             | always referred to with analogs to physical sensation.
             | 'Anger' is the heating of your head, 'fear' is the thudding
             | of your heart. He claims that at the time, there wasn't a
             | vocabulary that expressed abstract mental states, and so
             | the distinction between the mind and body was not clear-
             | cut. Then, over time, specialized terms to represent those
             | states were invented, passed into common usage, which
             | enabled an ability to introspect that didn't exist before.
             | 
             | (All examples are made up, I read it more than 20 years
             | ago. But it made an impression.)
        
         | TeMPOraL wrote:
         | > _Maybe it 's just me, but talking to toddlers often reminds
         | me of interacting with LLMs_
         | 
         | It's not just you. It hit me almost a year ago, when I realized
         | my then 3.5yo daughter has a noticeable _context window_ of
         | about 30 seconds - whenever she went on her random rant /story,
         | anything she didn't repeat within 30 seconds would permanently
         | fall out of the story and never be mentioned again.
         | 
         | It also made me realize why small kids talk so repetitively -
         | what they don't repeat they soon forget, and what they feel
         | like repeating remains, so over the course of couple minutes,
         | their story kind of knots itself in a loop, being mostly made
         | of the thoughts they feel compelled to carry forward.
        
       | Barrin92 wrote:
       | No LLMs don't think like people, they're architecturally
       | incapable of doing so. They have, physically unlike humans no
       | access to their own internal state and they're, save for a small
       | context window, static systems. They also have no insights.
       | There's a hilarious video about LLM Jailbreaks by Karpathy[1]
       | from a week ago, where he shows how you can break model responses
       | by asking the same question with a base64 string, preceding the
       | prompt with an image of a panda(???) or just random word salad.
       | 
       | LLM's are basically a validation of Searle's Chinese room. What
       | they've proven is that you can build functioning systems that
       | perform intelligent tasks purely at the level of syntax. But
       | there is no (or very little) understanding of semantics. If I ask
       | a person on how to end the world, whether I ask in French or
       | English or base64 or perform a 50 word incantation beforehand
       | likely does not matter. (unless of course the human is also just
       | parroting an answer)
       | 
       | [1] https://youtu.be/zjkBMFhNj_g?t=2974
        
         | mcguire wrote:
         | I was right there with you until you mentioned Searle. :-)
         | 
         | The Chinese room argument is bad in that it hides an assumption
         | of mind/body dualism. If you believe that humans have "souls"
         | and other things do not, then you have a qualitative difference
         | between a human or a machine. On the other hand, if you are a
         | materialist then you are faced with the problem that humans
         | don't have much understanding of semantics either. We're all
         | chemical processes and it's hard for those to get much into
         | semantics.
         | 
         | But then, the difference between LLMs and humans becomes
         | quantitative, sort of, and since I cannot say that LLMs and
         | humans are qualitatively different, the only argument I can
         | find is that in my experience, LLMs have never responded in a
         | way that leads me to believe that they are anything other than
         | a statistical model of language. Humans, on the other hand, are
         | not a statistical model of language.
        
           | Barrin92 wrote:
           | Searle's one of the most die-hard materialist philosophers of
           | mind around. It's his materialism that leads him to make his
           | argument. Computers and human brains are both made out of
           | atoms but that doesn't mean they're not qualitatively
           | different. By that logic I"d be no different from a tree.
           | There's qualitative differences between computers and human
           | brains. Our cognition is biochemical and _horribly slow_ ,
           | just by virtue of speed we are not working like LLMs. We're
           | not doing tensor math in our heads, we don't have access to
           | terrabytes of unaltered, digital data.
           | 
           | It's because our bandwith and monkey brains are so slow that
           | we're forced to operate at a level of semantics. We can't
           | just make inferences from almost infinite amounts of data the
           | same way we can't play chess like Stockfish or do math like a
           | calculator. The dualism is precisely in the opposite view,
           | that computation is somehow "substrate independent". Searle
           | argues we can have AI that has understanding the way we do,
           | just that it's going to look more like an organic brain as a
           | result.
           | 
           | The important insight from LLMs is that they're not like us
           | at all but that doesn't make them less effective or
           | intelligent. We do have plenty of understanding, we need to
           | because we rely on a particular kind of reasoning, but
           | artificial systems don't need to converge on that.
        
             | int_19h wrote:
             | Computation is a purely physical phenomenon, so no, saying
             | that sentience is computation that is substrate-independent
             | is not dualism - it's hardline materialism. Dualism is
             | saying that sentience cannot be entirely reduced down to
             | physical phenomena.
        
             | calf wrote:
             | LLMs nevertheless contain rudimentary theories, don't they?
             | Like the Othello example demonstrating a spatial model that
             | is emergent.
             | 
             | LLMs are fast like calculators but it seems the
             | optimization process that generates the parameter weights
             | still produces "fuzzy semantics" and the Othello emergence
             | is just one example.
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | While you right about LLMs, you're not really making the case
         | for humans well at all.
         | 
         | Human insight is really easy to break, confidence men wouldn't
         | really be a thing if it were hard to break. Simply putting a
         | statement like "I love you" in front of a statement commonly
         | overrides our intellect. Or offering a chocolate bar in trade
         | of our passwords. If you want a human to tell you how to end
         | the world, you'd just convince them to be your friend first.
        
         | int_19h wrote:
         | Searle's Chinese room is a good example of begging the
         | question.
         | 
         | As for the rest of it, the LLM is basically "raw compute". You
         | need a self-referential loop and long-term memories for it to
         | even have the notion of self. But looking at it at that level
         | and discounting it as "incapable of thinking" is missing the
         | point - it's the larger system of which LLM is one part, albeit
         | a key one (and which we're still trying to figure out how to
         | build) that might actually be conscious etc.
        
       | melenaboija wrote:
       | Few weeks ago I did an experiment after a discussion here about
       | LLMs and chess.
       | 
       | Basically inventing a board game and play against ChatGPT and see
       | what happened. It was not able to do a single move, even having
       | provided all the possible start moves in the prompt as part of
       | the rules.
       | 
       | Not that I had a lot of hope about it, but it was definitely way
       | worst than I expected.
       | 
       | If someone wants to take a look at it:
       | 
       | https://joseprupi.github.io/misc/2023/06/08/chat_gpt_board_g...
        
         | golergka wrote:
         | You haven't specified what model did you use, and the green
         | ChatGPT icon in the shared conversation usually signifies
         | GPT-3.5 model.
         | 
         | Here's my attempt at similar conversation -- it seems GPT-4 is
         | able to visualise the board and at least do a valid first move.
         | 
         | https://chat.openai.com/share/98427e21-678c-4290-aa8f-da8e93...
        
           | melenaboija wrote:
           | Interesting.
           | 
           | The model was whatever was up that that time, so probably was
           | 3.5 if you say so.
        
             | golergka wrote:
             | Your conversation is from June, GPT-4 was available for
             | almost half a year at that point.
        
               | melenaboija wrote:
               | Ok
        
             | xcv123 wrote:
             | If you were using the free ChatGPT then you were playing
             | with an obsolete LLM. GPT-4 has an estimated 10x parameters
             | of GPT-3.5 (1.8 trillion vs 175 billion), and other
             | improvements.
        
         | FrustratedMonky wrote:
         | I'm older.
         | 
         | I've bought 'new' board games for kids.
         | 
         | Then, I have been un-able to play because the instructions were
         | pretty bad.
         | 
         | Humans also need to 'learn'. Need a few play-throughs.
         | 
         | No human is going out and 'in a vacuum' with no experience,
         | buying Risk and from scratch, read instructions and play
         | perfect game winning strategy.
        
           | melenaboija wrote:
           | The thing is that I wanted to prove that ChatGPT was not able
           | to learn from the rules and that is indeed a Language Model
           | that puts one token after the other, if it know how to play
           | chess it is because it has seen games in the past, as I say
           | in my post:
           | 
           | > If it is not memorizing, how do you think is doing it? (me)
           | 
           | > by trying to learning the general rules that to explain the
           | dataset and minimize its loss. That's what machine learning
           | is about, it's not called machine memorizing.
        
             | xcv123 wrote:
             | > Language Model that puts one token after the other,
             | 
             | The interesting thing about the one-token-at-a-time process
             | in OpenAI transformer LLMs is how the Attention Mechanism
             | is executing ~1600 processes in parallel over the entire
             | context window for each new token generated. So it is
             | dynamically re-evaluating the entire context (including the
             | rules of the game) in relation to the next token at each
             | step.
        
         | GaggiX wrote:
         | I have played some moves with GPT-4 and they seem right to me,
         | what does this mean? That the model switched from not
         | understanding to understanding, from unintelligent to
         | intelligent? I don't think so, GPT-4 is just a more intelligent
         | model than GPT-3.5 and it does understand more.
         | 
         | Also in this game if I don't move the queen I force a draw,
         | right?
        
           | melenaboija wrote:
           | > what does this mean?
           | 
           | I don't know, take your own conclusions, I tried what I tried
           | with the results I got. And the reason I created a Monte
           | Carlo Engine to play the game was specifically because of
           | this, I expected ChatGPT to be able to make moves but
           | actually not being good with the game. You can try yourself,
           | the code is available.
           | 
           | > Also in this game if I don't move the queen I force a draw,
           | right?
           | 
           | I don't know as there is no time but I assume it is mandatory
           | to move when, what happens in a chess game with no time if
           | someone does not want to move? Same applies here.
        
             | GaggiX wrote:
             | >I don't know, take your own conclusions
             | 
             | The API cost of the game is getting noticeable, but I think
             | you were just being naive about LLM limitations, there is
             | simply no way that it can answer all questions simply by
             | memorization. A simpler way is to just invent a programming
             | language and ask the model to solve problems with it, at
             | least I don't have to write down the position of a game
             | ahah
             | 
             | Also I have trained models to do additions in the past, I
             | removed many possible combinations of digits to show in the
             | dataset, but after training the model was able to solve all
             | of them, meaning it learned the algorithm and not just
             | memorized the answers, I did it because a friend of mine
             | thought like you that LLMs just memorize the answers from
             | the dataset and cannot learn, but that is not how they
             | work.
             | 
             | About the game, I realize that I cannot move the queen like
             | in chess, so in this game I will eventually fall into a
             | zugzwang, trying not to move the queen.
        
               | melenaboija wrote:
               | I was not being naive, as I said above I was expecting
               | the model to be able to move but not to be good. That is
               | why I created an engine to play against, to see how
               | good/bad it is.
               | 
               | My exact entire point was that it would be really
               | surprising that chatgt only knowing chess rules could
               | play at 1400 ELO level.
               | 
               | And I did not give a crap about how to play a single game
               | and was not meant to see how smart HN users are but how
               | chatGPT is, but whatever conclusion a human would take
               | without playing a single game (not trying to move the
               | queeen) is what chatgpt should do, right?
               | 
               | BTW, I simulated few games of the engine against the
               | engine to see what happened and it does not seem as
               | obvious as you say.
        
       | 33a wrote:
       | Looking at their data and their experiments, I'd actually come to
       | the opposite conclusion of the title. It's true that current LLMs
       | are probably not quite at human level performance for these
       | tasks, they're not that far off either and clearly we see as
       | models increase in size and sophistication their performance on
       | these tasks are improving.
       | 
       | So it seems like maybe a better title would be "LLMs don't have
       | as advanced a theory of mind as a human does... for now..."
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | Indeed. Not sure what i was expecting reading the title but
         | "GPT-4V is close to or matching human median performance on
         | most of these tasks" was not it.
        
       | joduplessis wrote:
       | For me, the entire AGI conversation is hyperbolic / hype. How can
       | we infer intelligence to something when we, ourselves, have such
       | a poor (none) grasp of what makes us conscience? I'm associating
       | intelligence with consciousness - because it seems correlated.
       | Are we really ready to associate "AGI" with solving math problems
       | ("new Q algo.")? That seems incredibly naive & reinforces my
       | opinion that LLM's are much more like crypto, than actual
       | progress.
        
         | poulsbohemian wrote:
         | Completely agree, and while we are at it... look I'm just a
         | guy, not an expert, but I can't understand why there's so much
         | focus on AGI. It feels like there are so many niche areas where
         | we could apply some kind of analytical augmentation and by
         | solving problems in the small, might learn something that would
         | help figure the larger question of intelligence. I don't need
         | the AI to replace everything I do, I need it to solve 10,000
         | micro problems I solve every day - each of which is a business
         | opportunity for someone.
        
           | sgregnt wrote:
           | Many of the seemingly small problems do require a good model
           | of the world for context and edge case solving, so they still
           | get very close to general intelegence.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | Yep, at least in my eyes you'll never be able to "solve"
             | self driving without solving the G in AGI. You require a
             | world model for predictions in order to have enough time to
             | avoid many bad outcomes. Avoiding an empty soda can and
             | avoiding a brick are similar problems, but one can easily
             | lead to critical failures if you miss it.
        
           | Avicebron wrote:
           | I've thought about this a bit as well, and I think it's
           | almost like this toxic concoction of incentive (how can "we"
           | hype this until and make boatloads of money off of it,
           | coupled with a genuine (if sub-conscious) desire to be seen
           | as a visionary/great engineer who "created artificial life."
           | I mean, at least on HN, I see lots of this aspirational
           | attitude for living the sci-fi future circa. Star trek, ex-
           | machina, etc, while couching their language in professions of
           | expertise now that the firehose of cash has turned on.
           | 
           | Also there is the general hubris in all this to only look at
           | the new and shiny, I remember when there was that pizza robot
           | (some multi-dimension axis hand thing) that cost whatever in
           | building and research, when the costco pizza "robot" is
           | pretty darn good, but doesn't sell as "futuristic/cool"
           | because its a spigot on a servo.
        
           | tivert wrote:
           | > ...but I can't understand why there's so much focus on AGI.
           | 
           | Lots of software engineers have spent their lives reading
           | sci-fi that features AGI, and they're excited by/lost in that
           | fantasy.
           | 
           | It's interesting to see that in people who often view
           | themselves as hyper-rational.
        
             | tim333 wrote:
             | AGI as in computer intelligence that out does humans would
             | be a huge deal in practical terms. Chat GPT and similar are
             | kind of like handy toys. With proper AGI you could link it
             | to a robot body and tell it to go off, design a better
             | version of itself, make a billion more robots and take over
             | the world. It's a different category of thing. And if you
             | think that's just sci-fi I think you'll get a surprise at
             | some point during your life.
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | > With proper AGI you could link it to a robot body and
               | tell it to go off, design a better version of itself,
               | make a billion more robots and take over the world.
               | 
               | ^^^^^ literally a plot ripped from the pages of science
               | _fiction_ used to reason about the real world.
               | 
               | > And if you think that's just sci-fi I think you'll get
               | a surprise at some point during your life.
               | 
               | Such faith that fantasy can be made real. Wake me up when
               | you have my hyperdrive ready.
        
               | tim333 wrote:
               | I've never actually read that in fiction. It's just
               | logical really. I mean I'm sure it is in fiction
               | somewhere because the idea is obvious.
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | > I've never actually read that in fiction.
               | 
               | I find that hard to believe. Ever watch Terminator?
               | 
               | But even if true, that science-fictional plot is _so
               | pervasive_ it would be easy to pick up from the millions
               | who have the software engineer 's blurry line between
               | fantasy and reality.
               | 
               | > It's just logical really.
               | 
               | OK, then. You're a GI, go off and build an army of better
               | yous and take over the world.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | The idea is indeed logical and stupidly obvious, once you
               | learn the basics of what "optimization" means, or what
               | "recursion" is.
               | 
               | > _I find that hard to believe. Ever watched Terminator?_
               | 
               | Terminator has fuck all to do with recursive self-
               | improvement. Don't confuse people who grew up on sci-fi
               | with people who casually went to see Terminator or some
               | other pop-culture artifact featuring some kind of "AI".
               | 
               | > _OK, then. You 're a GI, go off and build an army of
               | better yous and take over the world._
               | 
               | What do you think the drama with eugenics, genetic
               | engineering and designer babies is around? It's literally
               | humans trying to make better humans in the only way that
               | is available - reproduction.
               | 
               | AI made _in silica_ would be more malleable, easier and
               | cheaper to replicate. Self-improving software isn 't even
               | a fantasy; it exists in many forms - though it's far from
               | open-ended like a self-improving GI would be.
        
               | tim333 wrote:
               | Sadly I can't build a better me as I'm not of robotic
               | construction. And I was a being a bit flippant with the
               | world takeover. But as soon as AI reached human level it
               | would quickly go beyond it given the rate these things
               | improve, allowing it to get to to work on improved
               | models. As something along those lines in the real world
               | think the Tesla robots but improved with far better AI.
               | 
               | Actually thinking about it I wouldn't rule out Musk/Tesla
               | going for the world takeover thing;)
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | > Sadly I can't build a better me as I'm not of robotic
               | construction.
               | 
               | Why the fuck not? You literally have _all the code_ to
               | manufacture a person.
        
               | 8note wrote:
               | So I link this to my Roomba, and in a few days time it'll
               | design and build a much better Roomba, while confined to
               | my apartment with only wheels and a vacuum to actuate?
               | 
               | I think a much more realistic outcome is that you put it
               | into a fancier robot body that can go outside, and by the
               | end of the week it's scrap in a homeless camp chop shop
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | > _It 's interesting to see that in people who often view
             | themselves as hyper-rational._
             | 
             | It's perhaps because they _are rational enough_ to realize,
             | thanks to the same knowledge /skill that put them on the
             | software engineer careers, that AGI isn't a fantasy but a
             | possibility and a potentially very big deal.
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | >I need it to solve 10,000 micro problems I solve every day -
           | each of which is a business opportunity for someone.
           | 
           | Because you have to solve 10,000 different problems. And a
           | huge number of those problems are going to have significant
           | overlap, but sharing lessons between them is going to be
           | difficult unless you have a _generalized_ algorithm.
           | 
           | Hence AGI is the trillion dollar question.
        
         | RGamma wrote:
         | A(G)I models don't need higher order thinking or somesuch to be
         | impactful. For that they just need to increase productivity
         | with or without job loss (be Good Enough), which they are on a
         | good track for.
         | 
         | The real impacts will come when they are properly integrated
         | into the current computational fabric, which everyone is racing
         | to do as we write this.
        
         | nyrikki wrote:
         | A particular subset of Connectivism have a philosophical belief
         | that the mind IS a neutral net, not that it is a reductive
         | practical model.
         | 
         | Hinton is one of these individuals and with no definition of
         | what intelligence is it is an understandable of dogmatic
         | position.
         | 
         | This whole problem of not being able to define what
         | intelligence is pretty much allows us all to pick and choose.
         | 
         | In my mind BPP is the complexity class solvable by ANNs and it
         | is a safe and educated guess that most likely BPP=P.
         | 
         | BPP being one of the largest practical complexity classes makes
         | work in this area valuable.
         | 
         | But due to many reasons that I won't enumerate again AGI simply
         | isn't possible and requires a dogmatic position to believe in
         | for people who have even a basic understanding of how they work
         | and the limits from the work of Godel etc...
         | 
         | But many of the top scientists in history have been believers
         | of numerology etc...
         | 
         | Associating math with LLMs is a useful too to avoid wasted
         | effort by those who don't believe AGI is close, but it won't
         | convince those who are true believers.
         | 
         | LLM's are very useful for searching very large dimensional
         | spaces and for those problems that are ergotic with the Markov
         | property they can find real answers.
         | 
         | But for most of what is popular in the press will almost
         | certainly be a dead end for generalized use of the systems are
         | not extremely error tolerant.
         | 
         | Unfortunately it may take another AI winter to break the hype
         | train but I hope not.
         | 
         | IMHO it will have a huge impact but overconfident claims will
         | cause real pain and misapplication for the foreseeable future.
        
         | upghost wrote:
         | Couldn't agree more. How about this -- I think we've already
         | reached AGI. Let me know if this tracks: Pick a set of tasks
         | that can be considered AGI tasks. Provided the task sequences
         | can be compared as closer to AGI or further from AGI, we can
         | create a reward model using the same techniques as were used by
         | ChatGPT via RLHF. Thus, for any definition of AGI that is
         | meaningful and selectable, even if subjectively selectable or
         | arbitrarily preferential, we can create a reward model for it.
         | 
         | You might say, well thats not AGI, AGI must also do such and
         | such. Well, we can get arbitrarily close to that definition as
         | well via RLHF.
         | 
         | Another objection might be: well, if thats the definition of
         | AGI, that seems really underwhelming compared to the hype
         | train. This says nothing about autonomy, sentience, free will
         | -- exactly. Those concepts can or should be orthogonal to doing
         | productive work.l, IMHO.
         | 
         | So, there it is. We can now make a reward model for folding
         | socks, and use gradient descent with RL to do the motion
         | planning.
         | 
         | Maybe thats AGI and maybe its not, but I'd really love it if we
         | had a golden period between now and total enshittification that
         | involved laundry folding robots.
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | Well... humans have different mental "spaces" (not intended
           | as a technical term).
           | 
           | Let's say I'm deep in a coding problem. A co-worker comes by
           | and says "How did your team do in the game yesterday?". I
           | say, "Um, uh... sorry, my head's not there right now." It
           | takes us time to swap between mental "spaces".
           | 
           | So, if I have an AGI (defined as having a trained model for
           | almost everything, even if that turns out to be a large
           | number of different models), if it has to load the right
           | model before it can reason on that topic, then that's pretty
           | human-like. (As long as it can figure out which model to
           | load...)
           | 
           | The one thing missing is that (at least some) humans can
           | figure out linkages between different mental "spaces", to
           | turn them into a more coherent holistic mental space, even if
           | they don't have (all of) each space at front-of-mind at any
           | moment. I'm not sure if this flavor of an AGI could do that -
           | could see the connections between different models.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | The power of analogy is one of the most important things
             | that humans seem to have.
             | 
             | Humans typically use the toolset they've seen along the way
             | to solve problems (hence if you have a hammer all problems
             | become nails statement). When you get people that are
             | multi-disciplinary they commonly can solve a complex
             | problem in one field by bringing parts of solutions from
             | other fields.
             | 
             | Hence if you have more life experiences (especially
             | positive/learning ones) you are typically better off then a
             | person who does not.
             | 
             | Also I think this is where a lot of interest in Q* learning
             | after the OpenAI thing occurred, as this would be a means
             | of allowing an AI to explore problem spaces and enlist
             | specialist AI and tools for it to do so.
        
               | upghost wrote:
               | solid points. As a D&D nerd, might I offer that this is
               | more along the lines of AGW (Artifical General Wisdom)
               | than Artificial General Intelligence? Intelligence seems
               | mode closely related to "IQ" as in (mechanical) "ability
               | to solve a problem". But wisdom is knowing when to solve
               | the problem and maybe when not to solve it, or which
               | problem to solve. And of course, those times when instead
               | of solving it, way better to talk about it with your
               | fellow nerds on HN!!
        
           | FrustratedMonky wrote:
           | Exactly. 5 years ago, we would have said what GPT-4 is doing
           | now would be AGI.
           | 
           | Now it is here and it's like "No, what we really meant is it
           | has to be the next Einstein".
           | 
           | People are forgetting how stupid people are.
           | 
           | GPT is already better than average human.
           | 
           | Most people can't do what we claim GPT must be capable of to
           | qualify as AGI.
           | 
           | The only logical conclusion is that many people are also not
           | conscious and don't qualify as being able to reason.
        
             | krainboltgreene wrote:
             | > Exactly. 5 years ago, we would have said what GPT-4 is
             | doing now would be AGI.
             | 
             | okay, and 500 years ago we would have said it was magic,
             | that doesn't make it magic. people who don't understand the
             | thing often are confused about the thing. as soon as you
             | explain how the whole mechanism works it's obvious that
             | it's not that thing.
             | 
             | > People are forgetting how stupid people are. GPT is
             | already better than average human. Most people can't do
             | what we claim GPT must be capable of to qualify as AGI. The
             | only logical conclusion is that many people are also not
             | conscious and don't qualify as being able to reason.
             | 
             | citation massively needed, this sounds like it was written
             | by someone who thinks idiocracy was a documentary and not a
             | comedy.
        
         | corethree wrote:
         | It's not hype. It's a language problem that makes people like
         | you think this way.
         | 
         | The problem is consciousness is a vocabulary word that
         | establishes a hard boundary where such a boundary doesn't exit.
         | The language makes you think either something is conscious or
         | it is not when the reality is that these two concepts are
         | actually extreme endpoints on a gradient.
         | 
         | The vocabulary makes the concept seem binary and makes it seem
         | more profound then it actually is.
         | 
         | Thus we have no problem identifying things at the extreme. A
         | rock is not conscious. That's obvious. A human IS conscious,
         | that's also obvious. But only because these two objects are
         | defined at the extremes of this gradient.
         | 
         | For something fuzzy like chatGPT, we get confused. We think the
         | problem is profound, but in actuality it's just poorly defined
         | vocabulary. The word consciousness, again, assumes the world is
         | binary that something is either/or, but, again, the reality is
         | a gradient.
         | 
         | When we have debates about whether something is "conscious" or
         | not we are just arguing about where the line of demarcation is
         | drawn along the gradient. Does it need a body to be conscious?
         | Does it need to be able to do math? Where you draw this line is
         | just a definition of vocabulary. So arguments about whether
         | LLMs are conscious are arguments about vocabulary.
         | 
         | We as humans are biased and we blindly allow the vocabulary to
         | mold our thinking. Is chatGPT conscious? It's a loaded question
         | based on a world view manipulated by the vocabulary. It doesn't
         | even matter. That boundary is fuzzy, and any vocab attempting
         | to describe this gradient is just arbitrary.
         | 
         | But hear me out. chatGPT and DALL-E is NOT hype. Why? Because
         | along that gradient it's leaps and bounds further than anything
         | we had just even a decade ago. It's the closest we ever been to
         | the extreme endpoint. Whichever side you are on in the great
         | debate both sides can very much agree with this logic.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Not yet, no. The real question is whether a bigger version of the
       | current technology will have deeper insights. That question
       | should be answered within the next year, with the amount of money
       | and GPU hardware being thrown at the problem.
        
       | resters wrote:
       | Here's my theory:
       | 
       | Consider a typical LLM token vector used to train and interact
       | with an LLM.
       | 
       | Now imagine that other aspects of being human (sensory input,
       | emotional input, physical body sensation, gut feelings, etc.)
       | could be added as metadata to the the token stream, along with
       | some kind of attention function that amplified or diminished the
       | importance of those at any given time period -- all still
       | represented as a stream of tokens.
       | 
       | If an LLM could be trained on input that was enriched by all of
       | the above kind of data, then quite likely the output would feel
       | much more human than the responses we get from LLMs.
       | 
       | Humans are moody, we get headaches, we feel drawn to or repulsed
       | by others, we brood and ruminate at times, we find ourselves
       | wanting to impress some people, some topics make us feel alive
       | while others make us feel bored.
       | 
       | Human intelligence is always colored by the human experience of
       | obtaining it. Obviously we don't obtain it by getting trained on
       | terabytes of data all at once disconnected from bodily
       | experience.
       | 
       | Seemingly we could simulate a "body" and provide that as real
       | time token metadata for an LLM to incorporate, and we might get
       | more moodiness, nostalgia, ambition, etc.
       | 
       | Asking for a theory of mind is in fact committing the Cartesian
       | error of making a mind/body distinction. What is missing with
       | LLMs is a theory of mindbody... similarity to spacetime is not
       | accidental as humans often fail to unify concepts at first.
       | 
       | LLMs are simply time series predictors that can handle massive
       | numbers of parameters in a way that allows them to generate
       | corresponding sequences of tokens that (when mapped back into
       | words) we judge as humanlike or intelligence-like, but those are
       | simply patterns of logic that come from word order, which is
       | closely related in human languages to semantics.
       | 
       | It's silly to think that we humans are not abstractly
       | representable as a probabilistic time series prediction of
       | information. What isn't?
        
         | calf wrote:
         | So my observation is that we could embody an AI so that it
         | learns theory of mind-body--but then we could remove the body.
         | This gives a theory of mindful entity that does not need a body
         | to exist.
         | 
         | Then the next research step could be to study those properties
         | so as to reconstruct/reproduce a theory of mind-body AI,
         | without needing any embodiment process at all to obtain it. Is
         | that, in principle, possible? It is unclear me.
        
           | resters wrote:
           | > we could embody an AI
           | 
           | ... a hardware interface that generates a token stream from a
           | living human's body would seem to enable this at some level.
           | 
           | Not sure how it would work at scale. Maybe something much
           | simpler like phones with built-in VOC sensors that can detect
           | nuances of the user's perspiration, combined with real time
           | emotion sensing via gait, voice, along with metadata that is
           | already available would be sufficient to produce such a token
           | stream... who knows.
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > ... a hardware interface that generates a token stream
             | from a living human's body would seem to enable this at
             | some level.
             | 
             | A hardware interface that generated a datastream from
             | sensors monitoring the status and surroundings of the
             | hardware the LLM was running on would be more to the point.
        
       | mdp2021 wrote:
       | > _A chief goal of artificial intelligence [would be] to build
       | machines that think like people_
       | 
       | "A chief goal of levers (cranes, etc.) engineering would be to
       | build devices that lift like people"
        
         | educaysean wrote:
         | Well we _are_ the most intelligent species known to us as of
         | now. Of course it would be considered the holy grail of
         | simulated intelligence.
        
       | theptip wrote:
       | This is a terrible eval. Do not update your beliefs on whether
       | LLMs have Theory of Mind based on this paper.
       | 
       | The eval is a weird, noisy visual task (picture of astronaut with
       | "care packages"). Their results are hopelessly narrow.
       | 
       | A better eval is to use actual scientifically tested psychology
       | test on text (the native and strongest domain for LLMs), for
       | example the sort of scenarios used to gauge when children develop
       | theory of mind ("Alice puts her keys on the table then leaves the
       | room. Bob moves the keys to the drawer. Alice returns. Where does
       | she think the keys are?") which GPT-4 can handle easily; it is
       | very clear from this that GPT has a theory of mind.
       | 
       | A negative result doesn't disprove capabilities; it could easily
       | show your eval is garbage. Showing a robust positive capability
       | is a more robust result.
        
         | tivert wrote:
         | > A better eval is to use actual scientifically tested
         | psychology test on text (the native and strongest domain for
         | LLMs), for example the sort of scenarios used to gauge when
         | children develop theory of mind ("Alice puts her keys on the
         | table then leaves the room. Bob moves the keys to the drawer.
         | Alice returns. Where does she think the keys are?") which GPT-4
         | can handle easily; it is very clear from this that GPT has a
         | theory of mind.
         | 
         | Aren't you confusing having a theory of mind with being able to
         | output the right answer to a test? Isn't your proposed
         | evaluation especially problematic because an "actual
         | scientifically tested psychology test" is likely in the
         | training data along with a lot of discussion and analysis of
         | that test and the correct and incorrect answers that can be
         | given?
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | How do I know _you_ have theory of mind or are concious if
           | not the  "right" response to a test ?
           | 
           | As far as I'm concerned, the only person I can be certain is
           | concious is me.
           | 
           | It doesn't have to be a "scientifically tested psychology
           | test"
           | 
           | Construct your own story with multiple characters of varying
           | knowledge and beliefs and see how it does.
        
             | tivert wrote:
             | You're missing the point.
             | 
             | With prior knowledge of the test, even something that
             | verifiably lacks the cognitive capability to legitimately
             | pass the test (e.g. FizzBuzz level stuff) can pass by
             | cheating.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | Yes, but if you keep shoving tests at it, including brand
               | new tests, and in total more than it could've ever
               | memorized, and it _keeps passing_ , then perhaps it's no
               | longer cheating.
        
         | elicksaur wrote:
         | Or there are enough of those examples in the training set that
         | it can guess well. Not sure how such an example would prove
         | anything when we know an LLM is just guessing the best words.
         | 
         | Nothing I've seen shows evidence of any sort of abstract
         | concepts in there.
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | Wouldn't this also be the same for humans?
        
             | hardlianotion wrote:
             | If you introspect and decide it is so, I won't disagree
             | with you.
        
               | Tainnor wrote:
               | Almost every discussion about consciousness or human
               | level intelligence eventually devolves into questioning
               | whether everyone apart from you is just a robot
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Negative, I am a p-zombie.
        
       | curiousgal wrote:
       | No shit Sherlock!
        
       | gumballindie wrote:
       | I dont know what's worse. The fact that there are people who
       | believe procedural text generators have insights and a theory of
       | mind or the fact that we are taking them seriously and we need to
       | publish papers to disprove their insanity.
        
       | hilux wrote:
       | > A chief goal of artificial intelligence is to build machines
       | that think like people.
       | 
       | Maybe that's their goal.
       | 
       | But for many users of AI, the goal is to have easy and affordable
       | access to a machine that, for some input (perhaps in a tightly
       | constrained domain), gives us the output that we would expect
       | from a high-functioning human being.
       | 
       | When I use ChatGPT as a coding helper, I really don't care about
       | its "theory of mind." And its insights are already as deep
       | (actually more deep) as I get from most humans I ask for help.
       | Real humans, not Don Knuth, who is unavailable to help me.
        
         | marmaduke wrote:
         | > insights are already as deep (actually more deep) as I get
         | from most humans I ask for help
         | 
         | This was my thought as well. But then I figured if I can't get
         | someone to give me thoughtful feedback, I might have bigger
         | problems to solve.
        
           | szundi wrote:
           | Or rather 30 different people on 30 different topics
        
         | krainboltgreene wrote:
         | Look this is the only time I'll engage in this sort of
         | discussion on HN[1], but first Donald Knuth is a real Human and
         | it's extremely weird to position world class experts as
         | something otherworldly. Second, suppose you got what you wished
         | for (you used the "us" pronoun), is that not a sentient mind
         | that you're forcing to do your labour? Does that not raise a
         | ton of red flags in your ethics?
         | 
         | [1] normally I find HN discussions about what if chatGPT is
         | human or "humans are just autocompletes" to be highschool-level
         | scifi and cringe respectively
        
           | hilux wrote:
           | I don't understand your objection about Don Knuth. I'm well
           | aware who he is. My point is that I don't have access to that
           | kind of insightful human helper. So I "settle" for ChatGPT.
           | 
           | And by "us" I mean "those of us who choose to use ChatGPT,"
           | and not that I was forcing you to use ChatGPT.
           | 
           | It's true, I don't morally object to asking ChatGPT to "do my
           | labour." It raises no red flag for me. (Okay, there's the IP
           | red-flag about how ChatGPT was trained, but I don't think
           | that's what you mean.)
        
       | verytrivial wrote:
       | I was having a drunken discussion with the philosophy lecturer a
       | few weeks back. He was making a very similar point. I kept saying
       | it does it _really_ matter? Lacking a theory of mind and deep
       | insights describes 90% of all perfectly normal people. And
       | perhaps training will be able to  "fake it" (he went off on bold
       | tangents about the definitions of this and that), or the language
       | model will be an adjunct to some other model which _does_ have
       | these insights encoded or deducible, much like the human mind
       | does. He wasn 't convinced and I was too drunk. But it was
       | basically feeling like: You can't feed carrots to a car like you
       | can a horse, therefore cars are worthless.
        
         | bloppe wrote:
         | To get into this analogy: this doesn't mean cars are worthless;
         | it just means they're a poor approximation of a horse. Maybe
         | you don't want to approximate a horse. But, if you do want to
         | approximate a horse, don't try to do it with a car.
         | 
         | Similarly, if you want to approximate a human, an LLM may be
         | the best we can do right now, but it's hardly a good
         | approximation.
        
           | verytrivial wrote:
           | Well the analogy was more at the introduction of the
           | automobile the people who were familiar with horses were able
           | to point out all the ways that horses were better than cars
           | by some measure. Cars ended up being used in entirely
           | different and arguably more powerful ways. You didn't even
           | need to contradict the people who held the horses in higher
           | reguard. Horses just became irrelevant. It's an incremental
           | value proposition. AI will keep hitting various plateaus, but
           | it's already pretty fucking amazing. It's not going to get
           | worse. And pointing out specifically how it differs from the
           | human mind to me honestly feels like clinging to the
           | wreckage.
        
         | dweinus wrote:
         | Of course they don't! But I think the most fascinating and
         | exciting part about LLMs is: a sufficiently large model can
         | produce things that look a lot like cognition, without having
         | it at all. That is shocking and suggests maybe AGI is not even
         | goal worth hitting.
        
           | verytrivial wrote:
           | Exactlyyyy-ish. I'm firmly in the camp that believes that
           | there is no magic central kernel to consciousness or
           | intelligence, that it's an emergent property. We are seeing
           | partial emergence now and it's only going to get more
           | complex.
           | 
           | Edit: this is may turning to a search for truth and
           | definitions of reality question. When the last person alive
           | is no longer able to tell whether they're speaking to an AI,
           | does it actually _matter_ whether it 's true generalized
           | intelligence or just an emergent approximation?
        
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