[HN Gopher] Graph Networks for Materials Exploration
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       Graph Networks for Materials Exploration
        
       Author : reqo
       Score  : 137 points
       Date   : 2023-11-29 16:17 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (deepmind.google)
 (TXT) w3m dump (deepmind.google)
        
       | bee_rider wrote:
       | > The GNoME project aims to drive down the cost of discovering
       | new materials. External researchers have independently created
       | 736 of GNoME's new materials in the lab, demonstrating that our
       | model's predictions of stable crystals accurately reflect
       | reality.
       | 
       | It seems like a neat project.
       | 
       | I wonder, though, what does an unsuccessful prediction look like?
       | They successfully created 736 of the materials. I'm sure they
       | didn't make 380000-736 bad predictions, hahaha!
       | 
       | Would it be interesting to know about materials in their set
       | where fabrication was attempted but didn't work out? Or maybe it
       | is much more complicated than that; maybe it is assumed that
       | there are crystals in the set that are basically impossible to
       | fabricate for complicated engineering reasons, and but that's
       | fine because it is just the beginning of the investigation.
        
       | therajiv wrote:
       | Are applications like batteries, semiconductors, solar panels,
       | etc. bottlenecked by the number of available materials? Also, I
       | wonder if the discovered materials are kind of "interpolating"
       | between materials that are already known, or if they expand the
       | convex hull in some way. (Though perhaps it's difficult to
       | precisely define what the convex hull of materials is.)
        
       | foota wrote:
       | The linked paper from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab is almost
       | way cooler, automated wetlab material science experiments:
       | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06734-w
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | They look cool but are expensive, hard to set up and maintain,
         | and rarely exceed what can be done for the same amount of money
         | by a small amount of well-trained chemists.
         | 
         | The arm in the figure 1-3 is probably $100K, before talking
         | about the support contract and site integration.
        
           | foota wrote:
           | I think the novelty here is in the automation of it? If you
           | (or let's be real, some eccentric billionaire) set up 100 of
           | these and hooked them up to run 24/7, they could generate a
           | stream of test results. If you can scale this up maybe you'd
           | hit economies of scale?
           | 
           | Shame there's no eccentric billionaires that love shiny
           | projects with little hope of success. /s
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | This is already happening all over the world across
             | multiple industries. It's typically called lab-in-the-loop.
             | 
             | I have been involved in projects with eccentric
             | billionaires to build such things. It's challenging to make
             | forward progress in a meaningful way (IE, beyond a press-
             | and-paper prototype), and often the reasons are entirely
             | banal and provincial (many scientists in the field feel
             | threatened by ML and automation; others just don't know how
             | to work in a large-scale environment, others want to come
             | up with the perfect experiment yet never actually run one,
             | and even others want to use the automater as a quick-turn-
             | around, not economy-of-scale tool. Further, just getting
             | the necessary support infra to make the system run well can
             | often be quite challenging.
        
           | bee_rider wrote:
           | How much do a small number of well trained chemists cost to
           | employ? I'd expect north of $100k a pop. Although I guess
           | this doesn't help if you still need a chemist to interpret
           | the output of the arm.
        
             | timdellinger wrote:
             | Indeed, the x-ray diffraction interpretation wasn't
             | completely automated. From the experimental paper: "When
             | the automated refinement gives a poor fit, manual analysis
             | is performed"
        
           | petsfed wrote:
           | We already do this with automated e.g. drug testing. I've
           | worked with a couple different machines (and worked on the
           | development of another) that existed specifically to rapidly
           | do certain chemical and biological tests, to parse through
           | computationally or AI suggested drugs. They run at about the
           | same cost, with similar service contracts, and they're VERY
           | common in the pharmaceutical industry. If your goal was to
           | find a process to produce some precursor chemical necessary
           | for material development (prior to heading to the foundry),
           | it makes sense.
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | I work in pharma and most of the time when I visit labs,
             | they don't run 24/7 and in fact run at about 10% or less of
             | their total capacity.
        
               | petsfed wrote:
               | Well, people are still buying them, otherwise I'd be out
               | of job. My experience with the Tecan and Hamilton
               | machines that I got to interact with was that the setup
               | seemed tedious as hell, but once it was off and running,
               | it would rapidly outpace even the best pipetters.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | yeah they are great for employment insurance.
        
           | tcpekin wrote:
           | Grad students at Cal cost a professor ~100k a year, and then
           | leave after 2-5 years with any optimizations they might have
           | personally made. They also only work 6-12 hours a day, and
           | having been said grad student, get mind numbingly bored after
           | about 10-15 repetitive syntheses, spending lots of time on
           | them, when the (only) interesting part, is the XRD pattern at
           | the end... I would have absolutely advocated for such an arm
           | if I was still there.
        
       | happydog wrote:
       | I don't think identification of possible new materials is a rate-
       | limiting step for discovery of better catalysts, batteries, etc.
       | The problem is not coming up with new materials -- it's coming up
       | with new materials that _have desired properties_ and _can be
       | cheaply synthesized_.
       | 
       | It's like if you asked a chemist to draw a few possible
       | structures for organic molecules that have never been
       | synthesized. They can do that. But not all of those possible
       | molecules they came up with will be easy to synthesize. And
       | neither they nor anyone else (without doing a lot of experimental
       | work) will be able to tell you which of those possible
       | structures, if any, would work as a painkiller or an oncology
       | drug.
       | 
       | Still, I do think this is a nice demonstration of how more data
       | enables very accurate predictions of energies that would
       | otherwise require expensive DFT calculations. That part is
       | definitely interesting.
        
         | aabhay wrote:
         | 100% agreed. This is primarily a breakthrough on using graph
         | networks to show some promise on the task. It will take several
         | more iterations for it to be transformative to the industry.
        
         | jacoblambda wrote:
         | I think a more interesting application of this process is to
         | attempt to find easier, safer, more reliable, or more efficient
         | methods of producing or processing existing materials.
         | 
         | See: the more or less accidental rediscovery of room
         | temperature polyester/PET recycling (including separation from
         | blended fabrics without damaging the cotton) using CO2 as a
         | catalyst.
         | 
         | There exist quite a few cases of very simple solutions to very
         | difficult problems where the start and end products are already
         | known, but we just don't know how to effectively get from A to
         | B without causing certain undesirable side-effects.
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | I'm certain you could build an embedding that provided a
         | utility function for molecules based on price and
         | synthesizability. That's an approximation of what the chemist's
         | brain is doing.
         | 
         | You wouldn't ask a chemist to evaluate the molecules (in drug
         | discovery), though- you'd have a molecular biologist (really a
         | lab tech) set up a screening campaign, and in many cases, the
         | biological readout that predicts something could work as a
         | painkiller or oncology drug is relatively straightforward to
         | implement experimentally at scale (high throughput screening).
         | Unfortunately those readouts aren't super-predictive of the
         | full biology, however.
         | 
         | I expect DeepMind or Isomorphic to announce, in the next five
         | years, that they have made a model that can quickly identify
         | whether a specific molecule would be likely to pass clinical
         | trials and the rest of the FDA process. With a false negative
         | rate ("predict that a drug would not get through to approval,
         | but in reality it would have") below around 25%, we could
         | easily save billions a year in failed drug costs.
        
       | dpflan wrote:
       | Isn't the problem how to actually scale these discoveries to
       | industry processes? Yes you can create some crazy materials a low
       | levels, but scaling up the small scale stable processes is
       | difficult.
        
       | whatever1 wrote:
       | Nice trick, but it's almost useless.
       | 
       | We have been using for decades integer programming to explore all
       | the possible permutations with hard constraints that include
       | manufacturability.
       | 
       | Their references list is lacking, to say the least.
        
       | timdellinger wrote:
       | For all the automation effort, there's always something that has
       | to be done by hand...
       | 
       | From the experimental paper: "The XRD sample holders must be
       | cleaned manually when the lab has depleted its stock"
        
         | timdellinger wrote:
         | A couple other observations on the experimental side:
         | 
         | They define success as being a sample with >50% of the target
         | material. I guess that's success, but wow you can't test any
         | actual properties (hardness, electrical conductivity, etc.)
         | with samples like that.
         | 
         | As the reviewers noted, they're only making oxides (no alloys
         | or intermetallics).
        
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