[HN Gopher] Japan automakers play catch-up in EV race
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Japan automakers play catch-up in EV race
Author : thunderbong
Score : 38 points
Date : 2023-11-29 10:43 UTC (12 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www3.nhk.or.jp)
(TXT) w3m dump (www3.nhk.or.jp)
| mdgrech23 wrote:
| Nothing is what it seems in this industry. If we had a free
| market system here in the US GM would of went out of business in
| 08 and the streets would be filled with cheap BYD imports from
| China. We have major domestic protectionism in place b/c in times
| of war the auto industry can and has been used to produce the
| machines of war. EVs produced in the US by domestic automakers
| are heavily subsidized
| elzbardico wrote:
| Free Trade is something that powerful nations impose on less
| powerful nations. Anything else is just ideological bullshit.
|
| EDIT: I understand that free trade theoretically could be a
| win-win game. But the real world is a lot more complicated, and
| is a historical fact that developed nations always have and
| continue to push for less powerful nations to open their
| markets while abusing of protectionist practices themselves.
| rwmj wrote:
| How do you account for Singapore?
| dontlaugh wrote:
| Singapore has significant central planning as part of its
| economy and also does some protectionism. It's also an
| important US proxy in the region. Not unlike South Korea in
| both respects.
| elzbardico wrote:
| Singapore economy is a result of foreign investment aided
| by very generous tax benefits and a repressive regime that
| ensured for a long time a low paid and compliant work-
| force. Being also basically a city-state without natural
| resources, Singapore was always trade-oriented and as a
| commercial hub of course it is in an extraordinary position
| to engage in free-trade.
|
| But believing that the same recipe could be applied for
| Argentina, South-Africa or Brasil takes a lot more faith
|
| But what is funny about the Singapore example always abused
| on those conversations is that it begs the question of why
| people always cite a more or less tiny Asian city-state as
| the most prominent case of the success of free-trade
| instead of bigger economies like the US, China, Japan,
| South Korea or the UE.
|
| And the reason for that is that all those nations have
| always engaged and still engage on protectionist practices
| while expecting less developed markets to open their
| borders. Subsides, Non-Tax Barriers, Direct government
| investments, taxes and fees, you name it, they did and they
| do it.
| csomar wrote:
| Singapore is a tiny city-state and its model can't scale
| for large nations.
| scythe wrote:
| Singapore overlooks the strait of Malacca, the key gateway
| by sea between India and China. It has been a strategic
| trading port for centuries. The cost of shipping goods
| there is correspondingly low -- ships go there anyway.
| Consequently, it has always had a culture and economy that
| was prepared to take advantage of our high-trade global
| economy. Being the Switzerland of Asia doesn't hurt either.
|
| Panama is the logical point of comparison -- its governance
| has been consistently atrocious (cf. Noriega), but it
| nonetheless remains among the front of the pack in Latin
| America economically.
| Barrin92 wrote:
| Then why does the Jones act exist and why is the US
| curtailing chip exports to China, and why does Mercosur want
| a trade deal with Europe?
|
| No, free trade is mutually beneficial and the natural state
| of things, protection exists for two reasons. Pursuit of
| military interests (blockades) or satisfying domestic rent
| seekers. (e.g. the shipping industry, farmers etc.)
| jryle70 wrote:
| That's a very narrow minded view. China is number one
| counterpoint. Without free trade, and very favorable terms
| that Western countries offered, China wouldn't become the
| superpower it is today. The tension between US and China
| today has more to do with geopolitics than protectionism.
|
| Read the following (from 1984) to understand how Deng Xiao
| Peng saw the roles of Special Economic Zone in the revival of
| China's economy:
|
| https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/deng-
| xiaoping/198...
| azinman2 wrote:
| I'm not sure if you're trying to say this is good or bad. Seems
| good to me.
| droopyEyelids wrote:
| It's too complex of a system to label the whole "good" or
| "bad".
|
| There are a many involved parties and they're affected by it
| in multiple ways.
|
| I think you're trying to say the consumer harm of increased
| prices of EVs is outweighed by the benefits to industry etc?
| azinman2 wrote:
| The entire revolt against globalism shows that just
| lowering price isn't enough when you no longer have a job,
| or the job you have pays you very little.
|
| It's not smart for a country to let all of their industrial
| engine be replaced just because it's cheaper. It's more
| expensive in the long run.
| konstmonst wrote:
| The problem is that an industry can be used as leverage
| by China to hurt the economy. See Putin and Gazprom,
| Tawianese Chips and so on. Globalization is good, because
| it makes production of consumer goods more cost
| effective. But cost alone is not worth much if the supply
| is not reliable and can be leveraged by a potential
| opponent.
| csomar wrote:
| It's good if the local market catches up in the next 3-4
| years. It's catastrophic if they do not, however.
| metabagel wrote:
| GM was bailed out to save the jobs. And it's got nothing to do
| with the "free market". The "free market" is between GM and
| their customers.
| ChatGTP wrote:
| _Adding yet another dimension to the challenge is the
| transformational nature of the EV business, which may ultimately
| be driven less by hardware than software._
|
| I'd argue the opposite. I wouldn't buy a software filled "smart
| EV". I'd love a dumb as hell, electric "kei van" that's 4WD.
|
| No Japanese automaker produces them however, it's absolutely
| ridiculous considering how popular the form factor and "dumb" kei
| car is.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| You are not the target market. Get a second hand Leaf or Bolt
| or similar golf cart EV.
|
| https://electrek.co/2023/05/25/tesla-model-y-is-now-the-worl...
| ("Tesla Model Y is now the world's best-selling car, first EV
| to do so")
|
| https://insideevs.com/news/698351/used-ev-prices-drop-sales-...
| ("Polestar 2, Ford F-150 Lightning, and Kia EV6 are among the
| slowest-selling used EVs.")
| dv_dt wrote:
| How are those non-tesla models selling used? I don't think
| any of them are even three years old. It seems like a skewed
| comparison.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| Study/methodology: https://www.iseecars.com/hybrid-and-
| electric-car-prices-stud...
|
| (disclaimer: I am trying to pick up used undervalued Teslas
| for folks in my circle who are in need of a vehicle, hence
| my ear to the ground on this topic)
| dv_dt wrote:
| I don't dispute the numbers in the study, but without
| added context, I think some of the comparisons lead to
| nonsensical conclusions because of the shifting landscape
| of new model availability with added manufacturers. Also
| I think a lot of the mfrs, shot their used pricing in the
| foot due to announcing future upcoming charging plug
| changes.
|
| Similarly with "slow selling new EVs" there is an
| unrevealed item there on how much inventory some of those
| models are supplied with. e.g dealers might be keeping a
| high markup on models they know aren't going to be
| delivered in high volume - so they keep cars in the lot
| w/ high margin while pulling in curious car buyers with
| it.
| Night_Thastus wrote:
| I would _not_ get a Leaf. Those things are quite poorly
| designed, with no proper heating or cooling for the
| batteries, leading to a very low lifespan on them. It 's not
| just a first-generation problem either, it's persisted all
| these years.
|
| I love the idea of electrics, but a Leaf is not the way to
| go.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| That is a fair concern (and why I only buy Teslas, they are
| the gold standard for battery pack management), but they
| seem to hold up well enough to be shucked for a second life
| as utility scale storage [1]. If resource constrained and
| you still want an EV that is mostly dumb, it is a
| reasonable option if your transportation needs are local.
|
| [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/11/26/ev-batteries-are-
| perfec...
| pornel wrote:
| Software is eating _all_ cars. It just happens that there weren
| 't many good BEVs 20 years ago, so the touchscreen-takeover
| looks correlated with EVs.
|
| Old Leaf and Renault Zoe have barely any tech in them (by
| modern standards). There was a niche Coda EV that was as "dumb"
| as any car from its era. EVs only need software for battery
| management.
|
| Conversely, overuse of software, touchscreens and faux buttons
| made its way to contemporary ICE cars too. The crappy UI that
| VW has created for ID.3 has been "backported" to their ICE
| hatchbacks. Every car you buy with a 2024 model-year is going
| to be an iPad on wheels.
| mavhc wrote:
| My 10 year old Leaf has satnav, mobile connection, can
| download rss feeds and speak them out loud, has cruise
| control.
|
| All the config is via touchscreen: charging timers, climate
| timers, satnav, bluetooth, phone.
|
| Has voice control, a mobile app
| mwint wrote:
| My 9 year old leaf is an S model and has none of that -
| it's blissfully simple. Prefer it over the SL model also in
| the family.
| mavhc wrote:
| having a screen with a satnav is a must, to compare GOM
| miles remaining to miles remaining of route
| pornel wrote:
| 10-year-old ICE cars in its price range have the same
| features.
|
| Base model of Dacia Spring EV and Citroen Ami have no
| touchscreens whatsoever, but these are low-low-end
| vehicles.
| hef19898 wrote:
| Yeah, as much as I hate it, modern cars turn more and more into
| computers on wheels. Or rather smartphone.
|
| Applies to all modern cars, not just EVs.
| rtpg wrote:
| It is kind of sad to see Japanese EVs barely take off. After
| seeing all the weird and busted stuff about Teslas (on top of the
| "luxury price for fake luxury interior" stuff)... all I really
| want for an EV is a Yaris but with a battery.
|
| I just want normal door handles and a satnav with buttons, and
| Japanese makers seem to be among the last holdouts.
| jhallenworld wrote:
| Chevy Bolt?
|
| https://cleantechnica.com/2023/05/06/my-first-ev-part-iv-202...
| ngngngng wrote:
| Speaking as someone that's owned Chevy's and Tesla's
| recently, if you're concerned about Tesla's quality, I would
| steer clear of Chevy.
| sofixa wrote:
| Renault Zoe or Dacia Spring sounds right up your alley.
| bestouff wrote:
| I've got a Zoe. It's fantastic - simple, efficient, that
| thing just works.
| joezydeco wrote:
| It's sad, but it's not a surprise. I'm a huge Mazda fan and
| their first attempt at a BEV was pretty shitty. And consumers
| figured it out really quickly.
|
| https://electrek.co/2023/07/29/mazda-kills-off-mx-30-ev-in-u...
|
| And the CEO is just clueless.
|
| https://insideevs.com/news/698183/mazda-ceo-says-evs-not-tak...
|
| _I just want normal door handles and a satnav with buttons_
|
| My mantra through this whole thing is "I don't want an electric
| car, I just want a car that's electric". I found what I was
| looking for in the XC40 Recharge, but I realize that's still a
| really expensive car for this market. I'm with you on a Yaris
| BEV.
| DrNosferatu wrote:
| Completely counterintuitive VW is so high on that list.
| hef19898 wrote:
| VW, the brand, has some very serious issues, not all of those
| are related to EVs as they started much earlier.
|
| VW, as in VAG the enterprise, is doing quite well with brands
| like Skoda, Porsche and Audi.
| csunbird wrote:
| ID series, especially ID4, are a success. They are definitely
| good cars, except for the entertainment system, which you can
| replace with CarPlay.
| jhallenworld wrote:
| John Cadogan on VW...
|
| https://youtu.be/u1UfDOLk8ic?t=2103
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn0U55n7Vwg
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjToFe1oAAI
|
| He's anti-EV, but the main point is pretty good: cars from
| different companies are all pretty much the same, so the next
| thing you should look at is the company itself- will they help
| you after the sale? Are they a good corporate citizen?
|
| Oh, one more:
|
| https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/29/vw-condemne...
| jillesvangurp wrote:
| Dieselgate basically. They got a rude awakening around that
| time and accelerated plans to take EVs to market because they
| realized that their diesel strategy was dead in the water. So,
| they now have EV production capacity on multiple continents and
| battery supply secured. Their first generation platform has
| been a bit rough but they are selling cars built on it in
| volume now directly and through companies like Seat. The
| probably do so at a loss or with low margins. Which is
| something they have in common with other struggling
| manufacturers.
| bryanlarsen wrote:
| They've still got time given their reputation.
|
| In 2024 it's borderline OK not to have an EV business. EV's are
| 10% of the American market, 25% of the European market and >50%
| of the Chinese market. The Chinese market is probably lost anyway
| due to the insane local competition, so concentrating in 2024 on
| the larger share of the market outside of China is reasonable.
|
| Let's say that the flipover point is 2027.
|
| And let's say it's 2027 and you're looking to buy an EV. You
| narrow down your choice to a 3rd generation Tesla, a second
| generation Ford or VW and a first generation Toyota or Honda.
| Reliability is the deciding factor. What do you choose? Lots of
| people are going to choose a Japanese brand despite any drawbacks
| getting a "bleeding edge" model entail.
|
| By not ramping up EV production gradually they're setting
| themselves hard production and logistics problems. All new
| production processes have teething problems, and they're a lot
| easier to solve when production is in the 5 figures rather than
| when it is in the 7 figures, but if anybody can solve hard
| production and logistics problems it's probably Toyota.
| raphaelj wrote:
| I had the same thoughts a few years ago.
|
| The winner will not be the first one to the market, but the one
| at the right time with the best car on the market.
| jillesvangurp wrote:
| Actually neither. The best car is the one that you can
| actually buy. That requires manufacturing, logistics and
| supplies. The likes of Toyota have barely begun the process
| of getting organized there. Even if they had an amazing EV
| product (which so far they don't), they'd struggle to sell a
| lot of them because they simply don't have factories, battery
| supplies, etc. in place that they would need for that. And at
| the scale they operate anything that doesn't sell in the
| millions of units is not worth doing. Getting from zero to
| there will take them quite a bit of time and money.
|
| Which is why the winners in this market so far are Chinese
| and Korean manufacturers. And Tesla. Unlike other
| manufacturers they have manufacturing dialed in and a robust
| supply line with batteries and other things they need. Their
| main challenges are keeping up with demand and keeping cost
| low while growing manufacturing capacity.
|
| The pace at which this market is growing means that it is
| getting harder for the likes of Toyota to break into this
| market. The few EVs they have on the market are actually not
| made by them and also a bit underwhelming. For example the
| bZ4X is actually a BYD car with a Toyota logo. That might be
| their future: leave the manufacturing to specialized
| companies and simply milk the brand. They seem to still
| insist they'll have their own drive trains and supposedly
| amazing batteries. But so far there's little sign of them
| building factories for those. Maybe that will work for them.
| shellfishgene wrote:
| Isn't it very likely that Chinese brands will also feature in
| the decision? From my sporadic reading here and there it seems
| they will be able to compete on price globally sooner rather
| than later.
| csomar wrote:
| It seems that people are not able to process the shock for
| the Chinese entrance to the automobile market. I have seen
| the Zeekr. It's simply insane. The price is competitive. The
| quality is competitive (I find it superior to VW and rather
| competing with BMW/Audi). China also can build stuff at large
| scale. Now, is it reliable for 5-7 years? That's still not
| known but we are about to find out.
| gjsman-1000 wrote:
| > EV's are 10% of the American market
|
| Ah, no. EV sales in the US are slowing with dealerships having
| large amounts of unsold inventory, as documented below:
|
| https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/11...
|
| https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/why-dealers-say-ev-sales-hav...
|
| The total percentage of _new_ cars being sold as EV is about
| 7.9% in the US for Q3 2023.
|
| https://electrek.co/2023/10/12/ev-sales-7-9-us-market-volvo-...
|
| https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q3-2023-ev-sales/
|
| That sounds great, until you realize that new car sales have
| slowed significantly due to the economy and high interest
| rates; meaning that wealthy people have outsized buying
| influence at the moment.
|
| https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/06/new-car-sales-have-sl...
|
| This has caused dealerships to warn Congress that they believe
| EV purchase orders will decline in percentage when interest
| rates decline and the middle class starts buying cars in
| greater quantities again; making the Congressional recommended
| deadline unfeasible.
|
| https://www.teslarati.com/car-dealers-biden-ev-demand/
|
| Despite the above, EVs and Plug-in Hybrids _combined_ register
| as only 1.2% of all vehicle registrations in the United States.
|
| https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-ev-market-share-...
| recursive wrote:
| EV adoption is still increasing. The rate of increase has
| decreased.
| gjsman-1000 wrote:
| Oh, no doubt, but the parent's comment about a potential
| flipover in 2027; that is, in my opinion, with the sources
| cited, wildly optimistic.
|
| I am personally in the camp that believes, because of the
| geographic area of the United States and people's families
| (very different if all your friends live in Spain, and you
| live in Spain, versus California to Chicago); EV adoption
| in the US will be much more strained than Europe or China
| (as in China, 60% of the population lives in 12 coastal
| provinces and most of the family stays together). I could
| see the US easily being a decade or more behind, not
| because we're stupid or backwards or lazy, but because our
| requirements are different.
|
| For the US; I think Plug-in Hybrids are a _fantastic_
| option that should be encouraged. They completely kill the
| arguments or concerns about range anxiety; and, what,
| 80%-90% of all miles travelled will be electric? Don 't let
| _perfect_ be the enemy of _very good_ ; especially when far
| more people would be willing to sign up. I think it's fine
| and reasonable to get 80% of the way there with broad
| adoption, wait a decade or so for EV technology to be even
| better and go further to where nobody has concerns, and
| then transition to 100%. Forcing people into premature
| technology ruins first impressions and sets stereotypes
| that will never die.
| wnc3141 wrote:
| Hard to pinpoint a year. It's nearly impossible to figure
| the economic conditions in 2027 and determine if demand
| for new cars will be high or if there will be heavy (and
| high profile) investment in charging infrastructure.
| bryanlarsen wrote:
| Flipover in 2027 is highly unlikely in the US. Flipover
| worldwide in 2027 is highly likely because China is a
| much larger market than the US and has already flipped,
| because Europe is way ahead of the US and because the
| rest of the world is going to switch to $10,000 Chinese
| EV's quite rapidly.
| gjsman-1000 wrote:
| > $10,000 Chinese EVs
|
| That sounds like a safety nightmare.
| bryanlarsen wrote:
| They're a heck of a lot safer in crowded pedestrian
| conditions than the typical US oversized SUV.
|
| And the $8,000 BYD Seagull has passed European safety
| testing for highway speeds.
| gjsman-1000 wrote:
| I meant in terms of fire; I'd be concerned that if Tesla
| can't stop occasional spontaneous combustion, how about a
| cheap Chinese EV...
|
| > typical US oversized SUV
|
| I actually don't know if people will go back from SUVs
| even if there are better cars. They just feel
| psychologically safer to the passengers and the large
| cargo hold is convenient. If you took them away from
| people, I think there'd be widespread anger at EV's
| expense which is not needed right now.
| bryanlarsen wrote:
| A cheap Chinese EV uses LFP batteries, which have a much
| lower fire risk than Tesla's nickel batteries. And
| Gasoline cars have a 10X higher risk of fire than a
| Tesla.
| dalyons wrote:
| Hybrids are much more complicated, and thus will be more
| expensive all things being equal. Once EVs break out of
| their current weird artificial premium only market
| segment, and are available at their natural price points
| like the cheap Chinese EVs, then they should be much
| cheaper than hybrids. I suspect all these range anxiety
| and geographic arguments will be proven irrelevant for
| most people, once the cars are cheaper.
| fh973 wrote:
| I found it interesting that even in Norway, the total share
| of EV is just below 25%. https://www.vox.com/future-
| perfect/23939076/norway-electric-...
| jeffbee wrote:
| Weird since Yamaha pioneered the electric _bicycle_ more than 30
| years back.
| jrsj wrote:
| Hybrid sales are way up, that's where the growth is going to be
| the next couple of years. The strategy that everyone was calling
| Toyota insane or even evil for is starting to make a lot more
| sense looking at market trends.
| epolanski wrote:
| I think they are doing the right thing by waiting out.
|
| They will reap a series of huge benefits:
|
| - powertrain and battery technologies will get cheaper and more
| reliable
|
| - they will do much more money for the foreseeable future by
| focusing on a very cost efficient market they already do well in
|
| - they minimize the investments by having to experiment less
|
| I think that many companies like Mercedes and Ford and Volkswagen
| FOMOed into a premature EV transition blinded by the growth and
| margins and Tesla. They are now finding out that EV demand isn't
| as high as they thought and that even Tesla's growth and margins
| is collapsing (and obviously will never recover with more
| competition coming).
| user568439 wrote:
| In the other hand it's not that simple to catch up. Tesla has a
| huge advantage in costs at the moment and the non-chinese don't
| seem to be able to compete. Supply chain contracts of batteries
| and new raw materials, software, efficient electric engines,
| aerodynamics, battery management, software, charging stations,
| vehicle platform design, cheaper manufacturing, trained
| workers, experienced engineers...
|
| There are a lot of elements and some will fall because they
| waited too much. VW for example is having huge delays due to
| software and also prices (even though in China they have no
| problem selling the IDs for half price than in Europe...)
| matthewfelgate wrote:
| Will the entire car market transition to electric vehicles?
|
| There's a possibility that this shift might result in a scenario
| where only premium cars are electric, while a proportion remain
| petrol-powered.
| dalyons wrote:
| That shouldn't be stable long term though, evs will be
| fundamentally cheaper to manufacture
| tsudounym wrote:
| I don't know why Nissan isn't aggressively exporting the Sakura
| and Note e-power, the Note especially has a gas engine fallback
| that powers the battery (not the drivetrain) which should remove
| range anxiety
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