[HN Gopher] Titled Tuesday Cheating
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       Titled Tuesday Cheating
        
       Author : surprisetalk
       Score  : 108 points
       Date   : 2023-11-26 18:42 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (dorianquelle.github.io)
 (TXT) w3m dump (dorianquelle.github.io)
        
       | __s wrote:
       | Before anyone gets into how much cheating there is, notice the
       | conclusion
       | 
       | > I am convinced that there is no evidence that cheating
       | increased after the chess boom in 2020, compared to the offline
       | baseline. I am also convinced that there is no evidence of
       | pervasive and consistent computer assisted cheating in titled
       | tuesday tournaments.
       | 
       | However, re "Since then, a former World Champion published an
       | hour long video, and accused Hikaru Nakamura of cheating." see
       | https://www.chess.com/blog/VladimirKramnik/informational
       | 
       | Lichess discussion: https://lichess.org/forum/general-chess-
       | discussion/kramnik-i...
        
         | progbits wrote:
         | Kramnik has gone off the deep end.
         | 
         | The "statistics" he is using make zero sense and whenever
         | someone tried to counter him with actual mathematics he would
         | just delete the comments.
        
           | chongli wrote:
           | Yes and furthermore anyone who attempts to offer a rebuttal
           | to his argument has their post summarily deleted. A number of
           | working statisticians have shown his arguments to be baseless
           | yet he continues to stick his fingers in his ears and cry
           | "Nya Nya Nya!"
           | 
           | I have no idea why he's doing this!
        
           | mtlmtlmtlmtl wrote:
           | I respect Kramnik a lot both as a player and as a commenter
           | on current top chess. I thought his research on chess with
           | the castling rules removed was fascinating, for instance.
           | 
           | I honestly watched his entire Youtube rant, and by the time
           | it got to his actual data, I was so mentally drained from
           | trying to understand the long, poorly structured 45 minute
           | rant that preceded it, I was unable to even parse his figures
           | and tables.
           | 
           | I think his focus on games that can vs can't lead to higher
           | earnings is interesting. But his inability to communicate his
           | ideas clearly and in good faith doesn't paint a picture of
           | someone who understands what he's doing.
        
           | ps256 wrote:
           | Kind of embarrassing that he doesn't have the self-awareness
           | especially after the false accusations that he cheated during
           | his WC match and that whole scandal years ago.
        
       | trollied wrote:
       | Hikaru talking about the cheating allegation against him:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm2R--_fBj0
       | 
       | I'll add that he _live streamed_ the tournament he was accused of
       | cheating in. If you 've ever watched how fast he moves and quite
       | often pre-moves & talks through his strategy as he goes, it'd be
       | very surprising to see that he cheated (and I don't even know how
       | he'd go about doing so - he's faster than the engines!).
        
         | hibikir wrote:
         | I don't think he was cheating, if just because he was playing a
         | series of players far, far lower than his standard level, and
         | he proves that level in tournaments that have far superior
         | anti-cheating requirements.
         | 
         | However, could he be cheating, if he wanted to, in ways
         | undetectable by the livestreaming? Absolutely! At the GM level,
         | just having the evaluation visible somewhere is more than
         | sufficient to gain 100 points of ELO: You know when your
         | opponent blunders, and if you are winning. That can be setup
         | trivially somewhere out of view. He doesn't need to be told one
         | move, ever.
         | 
         | See, for instance, Carlsen-Caruana WCC, game 6. Ended in a
         | draw. But there was a mate in 30 once, that neither player saw.
         | The moment Fabiano was told of the mate in 30, after the game,
         | he started blurting out the right line... because if there's
         | mate in 30, there was only one way it could possibly go, but it
         | was too hard to calculate. Mate in 30 says 'yes, the really
         | crazy line that you saw works out!' The same can happen in
         | blitz.
         | 
         | As for Hikaru being faster than the engine... it's a crazy
         | claim that he wouldn't believe himself. At any and all time
         | controls, the engine wins, all the time. The calculations from
         | the previous move already included every move your opponent
         | does... It's just that the lame browser engines aren't set up
         | to remember the line from move to move, so they recompute. See
         | what happens with any engine in the cloud, using aggressive
         | parallelism, the kind a super GM uses to study.
         | 
         | There's minimal cheat prevention in titled Tuesday. Even when
         | streaming, cheating is trivially easy to do, by anyone. But
         | this is a place where Kramnik is overplaying his hand. There's
         | probably many players making money in titled tuesday by
         | cheating, as their performance is so very far from over-the-
         | board performance, it's highly suspicious. But the top dozen
         | super-GMs, for which Titled Tuesday money is unimportant? The
         | statistical differences vs their regular play would have to be
         | far bigger than what Kramnik shows for them.
        
           | trollied wrote:
           | > It's just that the lame browser engines aren't set up to
           | remember the line from move to move, so they recompute.
           | 
           | I didn't realise this. Appreciate the correction.
        
           | soegaard wrote:
           | I agree with your analysis.
           | 
           | > That can be setup trivially somewhere out of view.
           | 
           | And that's the reason headphones are banned in tournaments.
           | 
           | It's a problem for streamers though, since they need
           | headphone to avoid audio feedback.
        
         | mda wrote:
         | He is not faster than engines.
        
       | johndhi wrote:
       | Hmm it's a little odd - he says there isn't persistent cheating,
       | but that's in a world where chess.com bans people all the time
       | for cheating.
       | 
       | So what he's saying is the chess.com anti cheat techniques are
       | effective (for now), at least with respect to this specific
       | tournament.
        
         | MauranKilom wrote:
         | > he says there isn't persistent cheating
         | 
         | ...in titled Tuesday, i.e. when there is a real-life name and
         | chess career on the line.
        
         | bongodongobob wrote:
         | No, chess cheating is rampant. But it's highly unlikely the
         | professionals are doing it.
        
       | kookamamie wrote:
       | "Anaylsis"
        
         | Bootvis wrote:
         | What's wrong with it?
        
           | scott_w wrote:
           | Hikaru has done multiple videos on why it's total nonsense,
           | pointing to statisticians from multiple universities that
           | detail the problems in his thinking.
           | 
           | In short, he tries to pretend Elo doesn't exist and there's
           | no way a top 10 GM could repeatedly defeat FMs and IMs rated
           | 400 points lower.
        
       | ThomasCM wrote:
       | Shameless plug: f you're looking for a similar way to compare
       | your online rating with the FIDE rating, take a look at my
       | project: https://www.chessmonitor.com/
       | 
       | Like the author, I also use regression, but extended to non-title
       | players. More information:
       | https://www.chessmonitor.com/blog/2023-elo-calculation
        
         | islewis wrote:
         | Having a quick look at ChessMonitor, it looks like much of the
         | analysis tools mirror what can be found on Lichess (unsure
         | about Chess.com). Is the value providing the aggregate analysis
         | between Lichess and Chess.com? Or is there functionality past
         | what can be found on the respective sites?
        
       | vb-8448 wrote:
       | A month ago also Fabiano Caruana said the same exact thing but
       | without making names.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aD1mga-Oj5k
        
         | bongodongobob wrote:
         | He's not talking about Hikaru.
        
       | wufufufu wrote:
       | Doesn't make much sense for Hikaru to cheat. He competes over the
       | board where it's much harder to cheat, and he makes most of his
       | money through streaming, not through competition results.
        
         | fairity wrote:
         | The size of his streaming audience is largely predicated on his
         | perceived skill though. So, he may hypothetically feel pressure
         | to cheat in order to impress his audience.
        
           | jaxr wrote:
           | I'm not sure that translates very linearly. Most of the chess
           | YouTube "stars" are not even GMs. Most of the viewers are
           | hardly good players, so what you can learn from an IM is
           | astronomical. Charisma and good at teaching are much better
           | skills than a 1000 ELO difference imo. To your point, beating
           | Magnus might drag a lot of people to his stream.
        
       | teo_zero wrote:
       | Why do so many chess experts, practitioners and commenters, with
       | varying degrees of familiarity with the chess world, misspell
       | Elo?
        
         | gwern wrote:
         | Because it is so often capitalized, lowercasing it looks like a
         | mistake, it looks exactly like an acronym, Elo was not nearly
         | as famous for anything else, 'ELO' exists as a real acronym for
         | many other things (eg. Electric Light Orchestra), and you can
         | even easily define pseudo-definitions for it as a backronym -
         | 'expected logistic odds', just off the top of my head.
         | 
         | I host a copy of his book and I still struggle every time to
         | not type 'ELO' instead.
        
           | teo_zero wrote:
           | Yeah, I think we've been flooded by three-letter acronyms for
           | so long that we see them everywhere. It doesn't happen with
           | four letters: you wouldn't write VOLT or WATT.
        
         | soegaard wrote:
         | And why do they use Elo to refer to rating on chess.com and
         | lichess? [They use Glicko/Glicko2].
        
           | ghqst wrote:
           | The author has a short paragraph at the end about Glicko.
        
       | Tao3300 wrote:
       | What's going on in the picture? Has the illustrator never seen a
       | chessboard?
        
         | gurchik wrote:
         | The illustrator is DALL-E.
        
           | Tao3300 wrote:
           | He should be fired
        
             | abeyer wrote:
             | Or asked to generate the rules for this variant where you
             | use mix-and-match pieces from several different sets on a
             | 7x7 board.
        
       | umvi wrote:
       | Controversial opinion, but what is the point of becoming a pro
       | chess player in a world of computers? Any novice can beat you
       | when assisted by an engine. The same can't be said of other
       | professions. A novice can't design a better bridge than a civil
       | engineer just by using cots software.
        
         | michaelt wrote:
         | What's the point of being a professional runner, when
         | motorbikes exist?
         | 
         | People can get enjoyment from doing (and watching) people doing
         | things, even if machines can do it better.
        
           | paulsutter wrote:
           | Status-seeking is the reason folks focus on professional
           | running, or professional chess, or any of these very
           | hardcore, very difficult endeavors that have no practical
           | purpose.
           | 
           | Someone once commented that men make extraordinary efforts to
           | impress women, yet in general have very little understanding
           | of what women actually like. This explains jacked-up trucks,
           | professional chess, professional running, etc
           | 
           | EDIT: I'm talking about professional-level running or chess,
           | not the hobbies of running or chess
        
             | water-your-self wrote:
             | Because it is fun.
        
             | chongli wrote:
             | Is there no room for enjoyment of the activity? Does every
             | endeavour have to be couched in the language of self-
             | consciousness?
        
               | erikerikson wrote:
               | So too, the appreciation of excellence
        
             | huevosabio wrote:
             | I think you dismiss the thrill of being really good at
             | something.
             | 
             | We humans get a lot of satisfaction of improving and
             | competing in all sorts of activities.
             | 
             | The world is so big that for any activity you'll find a
             | good deal of people obsessed with that activity, and making
             | it their life's work to perfect it.
        
             | initplus wrote:
             | Surely nobody becomes a professional chess player because
             | they think it will impress women.
        
             | zem wrote:
             | I feel like for most competitive activities like this, who
             | you really want to impress is other people who do that same
             | activity. (I play competitive scrabble, for which there is
             | approximately zero recognition in the "outside world", but
             | having your fellow scrabble players recognise your ability
             | counts for a lot.)
        
           | throw_pm23 wrote:
           | Arguably nothing.
           | 
           | Amateur running seems to make more sense.
        
         | lewhoo wrote:
         | > _Any novice can beat you when assisted by an engine._
         | 
         | A novice wouldn't be assisted by the engine but rather be an
         | engine-chessboard interface with no real input as far as the
         | game goes. I think that's a really weird take. You wouldn't
         | claim there's no point in 5000m race when any person with a car
         | easily beats you.
        
         | vharuck wrote:
         | Like all professional competitions: because there's an
         | interested audience with money. And humans still have the
         | money, so we demand to see human competitors we empathize with.
        
         | flappyeagle wrote:
         | games are fun.
        
       | nebulous1 wrote:
       | Regarding the list of noteworthy upsets, it's worth noting that,
       | while I didnt go through all of the games, the top three results
       | were all due to the stronger player making easy to spot blunders
       | and the lower rated (but still strong) player converting.
        
       | marcyb5st wrote:
       | Would it be possible to get some probability of cheating per
       | player based on how often they play the best moves according to
       | engines in online and live matches?
        
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       (page generated 2023-11-26 23:00 UTC)