[HN Gopher] Welding and the automation frontier
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       Welding and the automation frontier
        
       Author : shaldengeki
       Score  : 33 points
       Date   : 2023-11-22 17:32 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.construction-physics.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.construction-physics.com)
        
       | howmayiannoyyou wrote:
       | Author is using questionable metrics:
       | 
       | - Number of welders declined as US manufacturing has declined in
       | the US. Manufacturing that remains utilized robotic welding
       | extensively. You can be sure the demand for welders in China has
       | been the inverse of the United States.
       | 
       | - Welding use in automotive declined as US manufacturing started
       | using more plastics, metal foams, fasteners & automated spot
       | welders in their operations. It also declined as casting & powder
       | technology advanced, and it will decline further as more car
       | makers adopt mega-castings.
       | 
       | - He cites ship building, but does so somewhat incorrectly.
       | Welding is still widely used in ship building, but there are few
       | ship builders left in the US.
       | 
       | To the larger point, yes, of course AI will displace welders, but
       | its very unlikely to do so for repairs, small runs and
       | specialized applications. Its actually a well paying and in-
       | demand skill, especially if combined with other mechanical
       | skilsets.
        
         | datadrivenangel wrote:
         | Not to mention advanced stamping! Modern automotive stamping
         | (turning sheet metal into complicated structural parts) is an
         | amazing technology that reduces the number of welds required.
        
         | MikeAmelung wrote:
         | The tagline of the site is "Why buildings are built the way
         | they are."
         | 
         | And the author completely fails to mention the welding that
         | goes into buildings...
        
           | Oarch wrote:
           | It started off quite construction focused, but it's since
           | veered far off that course
        
         | Arainach wrote:
         | Your points are addressed in the article. It specifically looks
         | at the number of welding jobs in car manufacturing (still done
         | here) over time.
        
       | datadrivenangel wrote:
       | " A human welder is less productive, but remains more flexible
       | than a robot, and evidently enough welding tasks require that
       | sort of flexibility that much welding in the US is still done
       | manually. Interestingly, the pitch for a lot of robotic welding
       | systems is often more focused on the difficulty of finding
       | skilled welders, rather than on the potential cost savings of a
       | welding robot."
       | 
       | Obligatory reference to the XKCD automation time savings matrix.
       | Most tasks in construction and repair and other low-volume medium
       | dollar activities aren't worth automating because you only do
       | them a few times, and the cost of setting up the automation to
       | work correctly would be significantly more expensive. The value
       | of automation in these domains in quality, which is why you also
       | see it in low-volume high-cost domains like aerospace. If you're
       | going to go to the cost of x-raying every weld anyways, having a
       | welder set up the welding bot to do the actual work makes a lot
       | of sense given the cost of rework.
        
         | Closi wrote:
         | As an additional note - the cost of the robot is only part of
         | the cost.
         | 
         | You have to bring the parts to be welded together to start with
         | (i.e. some sort of conveyor system - decent conveyor is like
         | $4-5k per meter) and the cost quoted there also doesn't include
         | integration, programming, maintenance, project management, M&E,
         | and support.
         | 
         | As soon as the payback is compelling companies will put it in -
         | but I suspect the quoted $100k here actually ends up being more
         | like $300k-$500k by the time it's installed and all costs are
         | pushed in. Then there is probably a $30-50k maintenance
         | contract that sits on top of it.
        
       | dieselgate wrote:
       | I like seeing welding posts on HN and cool they come up few times
       | a months.
       | 
       | The GE chain making machine is pretty interesting and can't
       | really imagine doing it by hand otherwise (at scale). Saw a hand
       | welded chain segment the other day on a bike displayed at a shop
       | - kind of used as a quicklink but more permanent. It was slightly
       | puzzling to see how they went about it but whatever.
       | 
       | Welding and automation is something that kind of compounds on
       | itself - for example comparing wirefeed/mig to stick.
        
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       (page generated 2023-11-22 23:00 UTC)