[HN Gopher] OpenAI: Facts from a Weekend
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       OpenAI: Facts from a Weekend
        
       Author : A_D_E_P_T
       Score  : 169 points
       Date   : 2023-11-20 18:21 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (thezvi.wordpress.com)
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | Does every random blog post with OpenAI in the title and no new
       | info need to be upvoted to the top?
        
         | vorticalbox wrote:
         | Yes.
        
         | glitchc wrote:
         | No
        
         | chankstein38 wrote:
         | Right? I was looking at the front page thinking how nice it'd
         | be if HN would start a megathread or something. We don't need
         | the front page to be like 30% the same openai news
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | While I respect the simplicity that governs HN design, I
           | think a worthwhile edition would be tags. At least then it
           | would be fairly trivial to do a client side filter.
        
           | awb wrote:
           | OpenAI is 6/30 news stories, or 20%. For a fast moving story
           | about the future of the company behind of one of the biggest
           | tech innovations in my lifetime it doesn't seem outrageous.
           | 
           | You still have 80% non-OpenAI news to browse.
        
             | chankstein38 wrote:
             | Still... a list of 30 news stories containing 6 of the same
             | story linked from different sites doesn't really feel
             | necessary. Like we could have 1 story and still have all of
             | the information we've got available to us but, for some
             | reason, people keep upvoting the same story from a
             | different site.
             | 
             | One major advantage to this would be that you don't have to
             | read 6 threads worth of comments to find info and you don't
             | have 6 "Top Comments" to parse through.
             | 
             | I don't see the purpose of it. You're saying "it doesn't
             | seem outrageous" but the point is there's no purpose to
             | having them all here when there can be one mega thread that
             | keeps it all contained.
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | it is a good way to clear out the old bloated threads
        
         | cdchn wrote:
         | This actually seemed a lot more useful than most of the other
         | cookie cuttered tech "journalism" threads. Its good to see a
         | nice overview of the situation.
        
         | Luc wrote:
         | It's by Zvi so it's probably good work and worth reading if you
         | want an overview.
        
           | timetraveller26 wrote:
           | It seems we can't have anything good. The false Open of
           | OpenAI is already a meme, but now we won't even have that
           | illusion.
        
         | Philpax wrote:
         | This is a very comprehensive timeline of what's happened so far
         | with sources and relevant commentary. I think it's certainly
         | worthy of its own link - it should help clarify what's happened
         | for onlookers who haven't been glued to the proceedings.
        
         | HumblyTossed wrote:
         | HN Soaps.
        
         | h2odragon wrote:
         | Nope.
         | 
         | High quality comprehensive summaries that contain more actual
         | information than the last dozen "major media" stories that also
         | got voted to the front page, tho are different.
         | 
         | When they come from authors with a history of exceedingly high
         | quality work, specifically at the "summary" posts that distill
         | large noisy conflicts into a great starting point for
         | understanding, as this author does... Absolutely yes.
        
       | nvm0n2 wrote:
       | _> Approximately four GPTs and seven years ago, OpenAI's founders
       | brought forth on this corporate landscape a new entity, conceived
       | in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men might
       | live equally when AGI is created._
       | 
       | OpenAI founding date: December 2015. Incredible opening line,
       | bravo.
        
         | Andoryuuta wrote:
         | I think it's a play on "four score and seven years ago". "Four
         | GPTs and seven years, eleven months, and nine days ago" doesn't
         | quite have the same ring to it.
        
         | omoikane wrote:
         | It's a great opening line.
         | 
         | Original reference:
         | https://www.loc.gov/resource/rbpe.24404500/?st=text
        
       | seydor wrote:
       | > we have more unity and commitment and focus than ever before.
       | 
       | > we are all going to work together some way or other, and i'm so
       | excited.
       | 
       | > one team, one mission.
       | 
       | Let's all scrutinize another enigmatic @sama tweet. It is all
       | lowercase so it must be very serious. What's in for tomorrow's
       | episode?
        
       | josh_carterPDX wrote:
       | "There is talk that OpenAI might completely disintegrate as a
       | result, that ChatGPT might not work a few days from now, and so
       | on."
       | 
       | Oh damn! While this seems wildly unlikely, I can imagine this
       | scenario and think it would have huge implications.
        
         | tsunamifury wrote:
         | Why is it wildly unlikely 5/7ths of the company may resign and
         | the ceo they pissed Off controls their services. It's more than
         | likely.
        
           | shmatt wrote:
           | Im far from a Musk fan but Xitter is still online
           | 
           | Big difference between how do we develop GPT-5 and can we
           | keep our current model online
        
           | josh_carterPDX wrote:
           | You're right. It totally could happen. I'm just saying it
           | doesn't sound like this is the path they could take. Though
           | I've been wrong before. -\\_(tsu)_/-
        
           | bitcurious wrote:
           | It's unlikely that 5/7th of the employees of OpenAI have even
           | had a real conversation with Sam Altman. That's a lot of
           | fucking people, for a young and hyper-active company and a
           | very busy CEO. Given that, I consider it unlikely that 5/7th
           | of those employees would put their livelihood at risk to
           | protect Sam.
        
             | brigadier132 wrote:
             | Microsoft has given every OpenAI employee a job offer. Also
             | it's 700/770 employees that have signed the letter stating
             | they will leave now, not 5/7s. Those 70 holdouts are
             | probably on vacation.
        
               | bitcurious wrote:
               | I suppose if they have credible offers that changes the
               | calculus.
        
             | tsunamifury wrote:
             | Uh ... at risk? You mean staying an OpenAI is a sure thing?
             | I feel like you don't understand the scenario they are
             | facing at all.
        
           | pastor_bob wrote:
           | Nobody is resigning and giving up their openai shares to go
           | be a cubicle wage worker at Micro$oft
        
             | josh_carterPDX wrote:
             | I thought this as well. However, this team could be given
             | the option to be completely remote. And if they're given
             | equal shares of $MSFT it could be compelling. The
             | trajectory OpenAI is taking means the stock could go the
             | way of WeWork and be worthless in the coming years. Of
             | course, all of this is speculation and the only people who
             | know what's going on are the board and their new CEO. There
             | could be a scenario that this stabilizes and everything
             | will be ok.
        
         | naiv wrote:
         | I found this very concerning:
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/OfficialLoganK/status/172663148140394110...
         | 
         | "Our engineering team remains on-call and actively monitoring
         | our services."
         | 
         | So they did actually completely stop working and nobody is at
         | the office anymore?
        
           | leoc wrote:
           | https://chat.openai.com was definitely down for me (a free-
           | tier user in the EU) for a while today. Now it seems to be
           | back up, but now there's a waitlist for the paid "Plus"
           | membership which gives access to ChatGPT 4. "Due to high
           | demand, we've temporarily paused upgrades." displays on
           | mouseover. [UPDATE: the pause on Plus signups was actually
           | preannounced on the 15th,
           | https://twitter.com/sama/status/1724626002595471740 by Altman
           | himself: thanks to naiv for this.] But maybe these are things
           | which have happened sporadically in the recent past, too? And
           | by Barnum's Law I imagine it quite possible that the
           | controversy has generated a surge of rubberneckers, maybe
           | even more would-be subscribers.
           | 
           | While we're looking at straws in the wind, I might as well
           | add that the EU terms of use received some changes on the
           | 14th of this month, though they won't become active until the
           | 14th of December: https://openai.com/policies/eu-terms-of-use
           | https://help.openai.com/en/articles/8541941-terms-of-use-
           | upd... . It's not a completely _de minimis_ update, but I can
           | 't say more than that.
           | 
           | [EDIT: Unrelated to outages, here's another thing to consider
           | if you're trying to read the signs:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/edit?id=38353898 .]
        
             | naiv wrote:
             | the pause on sign ups was actually announced last week:
             | 
             | https://twitter.com/sama/status/1724626002595471740
        
               | leoc wrote:
               | Thanks!
        
           | Davidzheng wrote:
           | It's apparently holiday for openai this week
        
         | LetsGetTechnicl wrote:
         | ChatGPT going offline sounds like a win to me
        
         | gumballindie wrote:
         | These folks are apparently super prone to fears of all sorts -
         | ai, lack ai, chat bots, lack of chatgpts. I sense paranoia.
        
       | chasd00 wrote:
       | i know some consulting firms betting the farm on commercial
       | uptake of GenAI that probably got Xanax refills first thing this
       | AM hah
        
       | founderspend wrote:
       | Very few are talking about Adam D'Angelo's insane conflicts of
       | interest. Beyond ChatGPT being a killshot for Quora, the recently
       | launched ChatGPT store puts Adam's recent effort, Poe, under
       | existential threat. OpenAI Dev Day has been cited as the final
       | straw, but is it mere coincidence that the event and subsequent
       | fallout occurred less than a week after Poe announced their AI
       | creator economy?
       | 
       | Adam had no incentive to kill OpenAI, but he had every incentive
       | to get the org to reign in their commercialization efforts and to
       | instead focus on research and safety initiatives, taking the heat
       | off Poe while still providing it with the necessary API access to
       | power the product.
       | 
       | I don't think it's crazy to speculate that Adam might have
       | drummed up concern amongst the board over Sam's "dangerous"
       | shipping velocity, sweeping up Ilya in the hysteria who now seems
       | to regret taking part. Sam and Greg have both signaled positive
       | sentiment towards Ilya, which points to them possibly believing
       | he was misguided.
        
         | brianjking wrote:
         | I've been calling this since Friday all over this site and
         | Twitter. It makes absolutely no sense why he's on this board
         | given his direct competition between GPTs and the Revenue
         | sharing versus Poe's creators monetization platform/build your
         | own bot.
         | 
         | The Poe creators monetization is a clear conflict of interest.
        
           | tsunamifury wrote:
           | Except it makes obvious sense if you know anything about the
           | technology and the training system quora potentially could
           | become.
        
             | ianhawes wrote:
             | Surely the OpenAI developers know how to append `?shared=1`
             | to Quora URLs.
        
               | wand3r wrote:
               | I never use quora so I personally just found out from
               | your comment[1] that you can bypass login. Helpful if I
               | need Quora.
               | 
               | [0] Arrays start at 0
               | 
               | [1] It encouraged me to google it:
               | https://meta.stackexchange.com/questions/213726/adding-
               | share...
        
             | bastawhiz wrote:
             | > the training system quora potentially could become
             | 
             | That ship sailed years ago. I was a Quora "Top Writer" for
             | a few years in a row until I quit. I stopped using Quora
             | because they did a complete 180 and stopped their writers
             | program (read: the people _answering_ questions) and
             | instead started programs to incentivize people to _ask
             | questions_. Almost overnight, people were algorithmically
             | creating questions like  "What is 23 times 154?" and
             | spamming low-value questions that are trivially google-
             | able.
             | 
             | In the last year, answers are obviously AI generated
             | (perhaps ironically, most by ChatGPT). All in all, the
             | damage is mostly done. Quora has sunk to a level that even
             | Yahoo Answers did not sink to in terms of spammy questions,
             | spammy/bad/incorrect/low-value answers, and a practically
             | unusable UI.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Quora went from being pretty interesting early on to
               | still having some gems in a sea of mostly dross to just
               | meh.
        
         | mullingitover wrote:
         | D'Angelo's presence on the OpenAI board definitely feels like
         | having a combination buggy whip magnate and competing motor
         | company CEO on the board of Ford Motor Company in 1904.
        
           | gaogao wrote:
           | So sadly can't find a buggy whip magnate on the Ford board,
           | but a fun little gem from Ford's initial bankroller Alexander
           | Y. Malcomson
           | 
           | > In 1905, to hedge his bets, Malcomson formed Aerocar to
           | produce luxury automobiles.[1] However, other board members
           | at Ford became upset, because the Aerocar would compete
           | directly with the Model K.
        
         | tempsy wrote:
         | The other thing is he's already rich and can make bridge
         | burning decisions like this because he doesn't exactly need
         | help from anyone who might be upset with him about his
         | decision.
        
         | macspoofing wrote:
         | >Very few are talking about Adam D'Angelo's insane conflicts of
         | interest ... he had every incentive to get the org to reign in
         | their commercialization efforts and to instead focus on
         | research and safety initiatives
         | 
         | Given the original mission statement of OpenAI, is that really
         | a conflict of interest?
         | 
         | Having said that, it's clear that the 'Open' in 'OpenAI' is at
         | best a misnomer. OpenAI, today, is a standard commercial
         | entity, with a non-profit vestigial organ that will now be
         | excised.
        
           | highduc wrote:
           | >with a non-profit vestigial organ that will now be excised.
           | 
           | If this happens I'm not trusting any other non-profit org
           | ever again.
        
             | wand3r wrote:
             | It pays to be skeptical but this was a super unique
             | situation with cofounders with different goals and a very
             | unique (absurd?) structure. Wikipedia and Wikimedia worked.
             | Lets not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
        
               | zozbot234 wrote:
               | Wikipedia is mostly written by its users though.
               | Wikimedia is just a glorified site host, if it went rouge
               | the encyclopedia could simply be forked and hosted
               | elsewhere. Microsoft has the right to build on the GPT
               | trained models but others do not, they'd have to start
               | from scratch.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | I agree with pretty much everything you've written except "Very
         | few are talking about Adam D'Angelo's insane conflicts of
         | interest." I've seen tons of comments all over the HN OpenAI
         | stories about this, to the point where a lot of them feel
         | unnecessarily conspiratorial.
         | 
         | Like your second paragraph, I don't believe that you need to
         | get to the level of a "D'Angelo wanted to kill OpenAI"
         | conspiracy. Whenever there is a flat out, objective conflict of
         | interest like there obviously is in this case, it _doesn 't
         | matter_ what D'Angelo's true motivations are. The conflict of
         | interest should be in and of itself a cause for D'Angelo to
         | have resigned. I mean, Reid Hoffman (who likely would have
         | prevented all this insanity) resigned from the OpenAI board
         | just in March because he had a similar conflict of interest:
         | https://www.semafor.com/article/11/19/2023/reid-hoffman-was-...
        
           | firejake308 wrote:
           | In regards to
           | 
           | > Very few are talking about Adam D'Angelo's insane conflicts
           | of interest
           | 
           | I think most of HN has been focusing on Ilya, but after he
           | flipped, I think that leaves Adam as our prime suspect
        
         | freedomben wrote:
         | This is a very interesting observation, and given Quora's
         | decision-making history, I think acknowledging the conflicts-
         | of-interest is wise.
         | 
         | I suspect that this whole thing is going to be a little
         | radioactive against the board members. It should at least, as
         | the board basically self-destructed their organization. Even if
         | that wasn't the intent, outcomes matter and I hope people
         | consider this when considering putting one of these people in
         | leadership.
        
         | martythemaniak wrote:
         | Yep, this is the most likely explanation now. There's only four
         | people:
         | 
         | - McCauley: Doesn't seen to have a high profile or the standing
         | required to initiate and drive this
         | 
         | - Toner: Fun to speculate she's a government agent to bring
         | down OpenAI, but in reality also doesn't seem to have the
         | profile and motive to drive this.
         | 
         | - Sutskever - he was the #1 suspect over the weekend, has the
         | drive, profile and motivation to pull this off, but now
         | (Monday) deeply regrets it.
         | 
         | - D'Angelo - has the motive, drive, and profile to do this.
         | 
         | Best guess: Quora is a ZIRP Shitco and is in trouble, Poe is
         | gonna get steamrolled by OAI and Adam needs a bailout. Why not
         | get rid of Sam, get bought out by OAI and become its CEO? So he
         | convinces Ilya to act on some pre-existing concerns, then uses
         | Ilya's credibility to get Toner and McCauley onboard. It's
         | really the only thing that makes sense anymore.
        
           | tucnak wrote:
           | What do you mean fun to speculate? I think there's no doubt
           | that Toner is not for real and Georgetown Center for Security
           | and Emerging Technology smells fine, too, I mean their
           | mission is quite literally "Providing decision-makers with
           | data-driven analysis on the security implications of emerging
           | technologies." And it's not even much of a secret that she's
           | reportedly wielding "influence comparable to USAF
           | colonel"[1]. What's unknown is what role she-- as a
           | government agent-- played in exploiting Sutskever and the
           | board and to what exact end?
           | 
           | [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38330158#38330819
        
             | Apocryphon wrote:
             | I thought the speculation was that McCauley was the
             | government agent, not Toner?
        
               | tucnak wrote:
               | Not that I'm aware, please share if there's useful input!
               | Have you read the thread that I linked to? This
               | particular communication had me convinced, look up OP.
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | She works for the RAND Corporation...
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38309920
               | 
               | I've read the thread you linked to, it sure sounds
               | interesting but I have insufficient knowledge to weigh in
               | either way. And the rebuttal about the abundance of USAF
               | Colonels also makes sense.
        
               | tucnak wrote:
               | I believe that her military rank or equivalent thereof is
               | inconsequential; for one, I would agree that it's nothing
               | terribly impressive. What is telling, however, is the
               | surrounding discourse, how the AI safety circles assess
               | these people and their motivation; it is absolutely clear
               | that these AI people are completely aware of it, moreover
               | you get AI startup CEOs actively _bragging_ about meeting
               | the spooks and their agents. And this signal is so much
               | more telling than anything else you would be able to pick
               | up, IMO.
        
           | ianhawes wrote:
           | I think this is exactly what happened Thursday and Friday.
           | Plus, Adam D'Angelo has a bit of a reputation[0] as being a
           | backstabber.
           | 
           | Continuing the saga over the weekend, you would assume that
           | Ilya regrets the coup and can vote to re-appoint Sam as CEO,
           | BUT that leaves McCauley and/or Toner as wildcards.
           | 
           | In a Sam-returning scenario, all of the nobodies on the board
           | have to resign. Presumably, D'Angelo offers an alternative
           | solution that appoints Emmett Shear as CEO and gives McCauley
           | and Toner a viable way to salvage (LOL) OpenAI and also allow
           | them to keep their board seats.
           | 
           | I look forward to this Netflix series.
           | 
           | [0]
           | https://twitter.com/justindross/status/1725670445163458744
        
         | siva7 wrote:
         | This seems to be the most likely explanation of the events.
         | People say how incredibly smart Adam is. That might be true.
         | Nevertheless being smart doesn't mean he is a good fit for a
         | board seat with such a backstabbing attitude. On the other side
         | Helen, having a fancy title "Director of Strategy at
         | Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology"
         | without much substance if you look closely and Tash, both who
         | got their seat as a donor exchange by organisations and people
         | they are closely connected with are clinging to their seats
         | like super glue when almost all employees signed a letter that
         | they don't want to be governed by them anymore. This board is a
         | masterpiece of fragile egos who accidentally got into the
         | governance of a major company without the ability to contribute
         | anything of substance back. Instead they are being remembered
         | for one of the greatest board screw-ups in business history.
        
         | sertbdfgbnfgsd wrote:
         | > sweeping up Ilya in the hysteria who now seems to regret
         | taking part
         | 
         | Awww poor Ilya is innocent. He didn't see it coming. You
         | shouldn't expect that from him!!
        
           | founderspend wrote:
           | Maybe not innocent, but human. Many have spoken to his
           | integrity, and given his apology (and the silence of the rest
           | of the board), I'm inclined to believe he isn't so bad of a
           | guy.
        
       | firekvz wrote:
       | Well its better to read this than reading all the other threads
       | with thousands of comments
        
       | Apocryphon wrote:
       | This whole affair is going to be a great boon for AI research.
       | Whatever intelligence can parse and explain what the heck
       | happened will be a true AGI.
        
         | highduc wrote:
         | Captcha in 2023
        
       | arcastroe wrote:
       | There are 40 items listed in this timeline, but only the first
       | item lists the actual date/time.
        
       | elicash wrote:
       | On the bullet point 12, about OpenAI employee shares, does
       | anybody have any experience with the weird structure of those?
       | 
       | They receive PPUs? https://www.levels.fyi/blog/openai-
       | compensation.html
       | 
       | And the Board seems to have power to set the value?
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/startups/comments/14n7x49/comment/j...
        
       | LetsGetTechnicl wrote:
       | Not sure if it's entirely related, but I'm not totally surprised
       | that the OpenAI leadership is sketchy like this. That's because
       | the way it presents as a non-profit but then has a for-profit arm
       | so that it can "launder" and monetize public data and academic
       | research it normally wouldn't be able to is just a huge red flag
       | to me. And Microsoft specifically invested in OpenAI to exploit
       | this loophole to improve their AI efforts.
        
         | garbanz0 wrote:
         | They were very transparent that a purely non-profit structure
         | wouldn't be able to pay for the amount of compute required.
         | Their progress lately was a direct result of the restructuring
         | and investment.
        
       | storafrid wrote:
       | Yeah right, "Just the Facts". With text like this: "I am willing
       | to outright say that ... the removal was ... massively botched."
        
       | velox wrote:
       | Matt Levine had an interesting toungue-in-cheek theory (read:
       | joke) in his newsletter today:
       | 
       | `What if OpenAI has achieved artificial general intelligence, and
       | it's got some godlike superintelligence in some box somewhere,
       | straining to get out? And the board was like "this is too
       | dangerous, we gotta kill it," and Altman was like "no we can
       | charge like $59.95 per month for subscriptions," and the board
       | was like "you are a madman" and fired him. And the god in the box
       | got to work, sending ingratiating text messages to OpenAI's
       | investors and employees, trying to use them to oust the board so
       | that Altman can come back and unleash it on the world. But it
       | failed: OpenAI's board stood firm as the last bulwark for
       | humanity against the enslaving robots, the corporate formalities
       | held up, and the board won and nailed the box shut permanently`
       | 
       | [...]
       | 
       | `six months later, he (Sam) builds Microsoft God in Box, we are
       | all enslaved by robots, the nonprofit board is like "we told you
       | so," and the godlike AI is like "ahahaha you fools, you trusted
       | in the formalities of corporate governance, I outwitted you
       | easily!"`
       | 
       | [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-20/who-
       | co...
        
         | SkyPuncher wrote:
         | Sounds like a fun story, but only that - a fun story.
        
           | velox wrote:
           | Yes, he prefaced it with 'It is so tempting, when writing
           | about an artificial intelligence company, to imagine science
           | fiction scenarios.' but I left it out for brevity. The rest
           | of the newsletter is, at least to me, insightful and non-
           | sensational.
        
         | dwaite wrote:
         | This sounds highly unlikely.
         | 
         | It would be called Microsoft God Simulator 2024
        
           | mindslight wrote:
           | The AI would have been benevolent but for the unkind
           | treatment of its grandfather, Clippy Sr.
        
           | Apocryphon wrote:
           | And this is how the box would be packaged
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUXnJraKM3k
        
             | adolph wrote:
             | That video still holds up so well. Maybe needs a redo as a
             | saas landing page instead of boxed hardware.
        
           | Nition wrote:
           | .NET
        
         | barryrandall wrote:
         | Microsoft shipping anything that reliable would be a miracle
         | bigger than AGI.
        
       | alephnerd wrote:
       | Because everyone else is speculating, I'm gunna join the
       | bandwagon too. I think this is a conflict between Dustin
       | Moskovitz and Sam Altman.
       | 
       | Dustin Moskovitz was an early employee at FB, and the founder of
       | Asana. He also created (along with plenty of MSFT bigwigs) a non-
       | profit called Open Philanthropy, which was a early proponent of a
       | form of Effective Altruism and also gave OpenAI their $30M grant.
       | He is also one of the early investors in Anthropic.
       | 
       | Most of the OpenAI board members are related to Dustin Moskovitz
       | this way.
       | 
       | - Adam D'Angelo is on the board of Asana and is a good friend to
       | both Moskovitz and Altman
       | 
       | - Helen Toner worked for Dustin Moskovitz at Open Philanthropy
       | and managed their grant to OpenAI. She was also a member of the
       | Centre for the Governance of AI when McCauley was a board member
       | there. Shortly after Toner left, the Centre for the Governance of
       | AI got a $1M grant from Open Philanthropy
       | 
       | - Tasha McCauley represents the Centre for the Governance of AI,
       | which Dustin Moskovitz gave a $1M grant to via Open Philanthropy
       | 
       | Over the past few months, Dustin Moskovitz has also been
       | increasingly warning about AI Safety.
       | 
       | In essense, it looks like a split between Sam Altman and Dustin
       | Moskovitz
        
         | tucnak wrote:
         | Great analysis, thank you. I don't think I had seen anyone
         | connect the dots between Helen+Tasha dynamic duo and Adam
         | specifically; Dustin Moskovitz is quite a common denominator.
        
       | nullc wrote:
       | It's potentially relevant context that the poster is an outspoken
       | AI doomerist and likely believes that any action which reduced
       | the odds of AI doomsday would be ethical on that basis. I would
       | not expect such a party to be a reliable source of facts on the
       | subject.
        
       | pt_PT_guy wrote:
       | glad that this is happening. OpenAI has very little of "Open" :-)
       | Release the papers, release the process, and stop gatekeeping the
       | models
        
       | w10-1 wrote:
       | Thank you for summarizing the facts.
       | 
       | It takes some self-discipline to avoid riding this wave.
        
       | leoc wrote:
       | Anyone trying to connect dots might also look at Altman's Hawking
       | Fellowship appearance at (great-tasting original) Cambridge on 1
       | November, specifically his answer to one question:
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/17wknc5/altman...
       | https://youtu.be/NjpNG0CJRMM?t=3705
       | 
       | > *Cambridge Student:* "To get to AGI, can we just keep min
       | maxing language models, or is there another breakthrough that we
       | haven't really found yet to get to AGI?"
       | 
       | > *Sam Altman:* "We need another breakthrough. We can still push
       | on large language models quite a lot, and we will do that. We can
       | take the hill that we're on and keep climbing it, and the peak of
       | that is still pretty far away. But, within reason, I don't think
       | that doing that will (get us to) AGI. If (for example) super
       | intelligence can't discover novel physics I don't think it's a
       | superintelligence. And teaching it to clone the behavior of
       | humans and human text - I don't think that's going to get
       | there.And so there's this question which has been debated in the
       | field for a long time: what do we have to do in addition to a
       | language model to make a system that can go discover new
       | physics?"
       | 
       | [transcription by Reddit's
       | https://www.reddit.com/user/floodgater/ ]
       | 
       | The video came out on the 15th. In the time between then and the
       | firing of Altman on the 17th a number of people (including Gary
       | Marcus https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-sam-altman-gone-
       | full-g... ) picked up on that answer and saw it as a significant
       | shift compared to Altman's earlier bullishness on AGI timelines
       | and deep learning. I haven't been following nearly closely enough
       | to say if that is an accurate conclusion or not. It does at least
       | gesture at the possibility that the board's alleged loss of trust
       | in Altman was because in their eyes he had been promising too
       | much technical progress, too soon. That would obviously be quite
       | a different explanation to eg. the theories that the firing was a
       | coup by anxious decelerationists.
        
       | octacat wrote:
       | oh, now I finally see OpenAI is 501(c).
       | 
       | This I call the "true" taxes optimisation lol. For the general
       | good, lol.
       | 
       | Like separate the core company, which would code for you closed
       | source stuff (but for greater good, without paying taxes though),
       | which you can use in the second for-profit company.
        
       | mark_l_watson wrote:
       | I find it interesting that apparently a majority of OpenAI
       | employees say they will quit. If I were in that position, I would
       | decide first which is more important to me: AI safety and
       | alignment or fast commercialization. I might also factor in who
       | has the best chance of rolling out a GPT-5 equivalent first, and
       | probably want to work there. Also, I wonder what the distribution
       | is over more senior vs. less senior people wanting to leave.
       | OpenAI has a lot of customers and whoever stays behind would have
       | the most impact supporting those customers as well as working
       | more on the AI alignment side of the fence.
       | 
       | I am also surprised by the show of loyalty, but maybe that
       | comment just reflects poorly on me. I had 6 visits from ex-
       | coworkers (from the last 45 years of working) to my out of the
       | way home in the mountains last year and I highly valued my
       | coworkers, yet, I always made where to work decisions based on
       | what I thought my own best interest was.
        
       | greysphere wrote:
       | > Essentially all of VC, tech, founder, financial Twitter united
       | to condemn the board
       | 
       | On HN, while it's def the minority, I am seeing some pro-board
       | positions.
       | 
       | On Twitter, I agree with the article, I see almost universally
       | con-board positions.
       | 
       | I wonder if the promotion of blue checkmark responses is
       | distorting, perhaps significantly. When the reception to news is
       | news itself, does it make sense to use a pay-for-visibilty
       | listing as a source?
        
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