[HN Gopher] 'How to Expect the Unexpected' Review: Stop Thinking...
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       'How to Expect the Unexpected' Review: Stop Thinking Straight
        
       Author : lxm
       Score  : 10 points
       Date   : 2023-11-20 01:19 UTC (21 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | madaxe_again wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/m3FqT
       | 
       | I find there's a straightforward method to thinking sideways -
       | look at what everybody else is doing, and do the exact opposite,
       | or at the very least, head off on a tangent. People talk about
       | the wisdom of crowds, but in general, as a population increases,
       | the net intelligence of decisions decreases. Buy when everybody
       | is selling, sell when everyone is buying, and if people tell you
       | your idea is crazy and terrible, it's almost certainly a good
       | one. Likewise, if people think your idea is good, it's probably
       | mundane at best.
        
         | eichin wrote:
         | There's a simpler point, though: if everyone is going one way,
         | even if they're _right_ it 's still hard to get ahead of that
         | curve; you don't have to be cynical about everyone, just notice
         | what a bell curve looks like as the population increases. By
         | diverting even a little you can get into a space where it's
         | easier to standout, without having to go full retro - after
         | all, sometimes the crowd is _actually running from the tsunami_
         | :-)
        
       | ilc wrote:
       | What is amusing is that he goes on to prove his own point, when
       | saying that Trump benefited from the underdog effect. The best
       | pollsters had him at about 40% to win (538).
       | 
       | That is an underdog win. But far from an unexpected win.
       | 
       | Overall: Think sideways? No. Think for yourself.
       | 
       | Also if the entire world is going one way... and you think
       | differently. Stop a moment and ask someone: Am I crazy or is the
       | world crazy and lay out your logic. You may discover... the world
       | is crazy.
       | 
       | In a world with so much cargo-culting etc. Insanity is around the
       | bend.
        
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       (page generated 2023-11-20 23:01 UTC)