[HN Gopher] Defence against scientific fraud: a proposal for a n...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Defence against scientific fraud: a proposal for a new MSc course
        
       Author : vo2maxer
       Score  : 13 points
       Date   : 2023-11-19 18:36 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (deevybee.blogspot.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (deevybee.blogspot.com)
        
       | userinanother wrote:
       | Anyone dismissing fraud hasn't tried to replicate academic
       | results to build products. Those people know exactly how bad the
       | fraud truly is
        
       | yashap wrote:
       | I have a slightly inside opinion on this - before I became a
       | Software Engineer, I got an MSc in a mostly unrelated field, and
       | am a co-author on work published in a few (very middling) peer
       | reviewed journals.
       | 
       | My gut feel from what I saw is that outright fraud is rare, but
       | bias seeping into the study is common. Researchers invest a huge
       | amount of effort into a study, they really want the hypothesis to
       | be true. A lot of studies have steps that are pretty susceptible
       | to bias, like maybe you're classifying results and there's a bit
       | of a judgement call there. It's human nature to make biased
       | decisions in these situations, and make enough of these biased
       | decisions, and statistically insignificant results become
       | statistically significant.
       | 
       | Some people might not see a difference between bias and fraud,
       | but I personally do. I think of fraud as a very intentional
       | deception, straight up falsifying numbers in a conscious attempt
       | to deceive. While I see bias as more, you've got a borderline
       | case, and you view it in the light you want to see it in, even
       | somewhat unconsciously. Like the difference between unconscious
       | racial bias, and overt hateful racism.
       | 
       | I think the best approach to combatting this is to spend a lot
       | less of the overall $$ in science on novel research, and a lot
       | more on attempting to independently reproduce results. Papers
       | should be seen as meaningless until their results can be
       | independently reproduced, and universities/colleges should reward
       | reproduction studies as much as novel research. It's kind of
       | crazy that the system almost completely lacks these checks and
       | balances right now - peer review is more like an editor, it's
       | just a very different thing than reproduction.
       | 
       | Bishop here is suggesting a data sleuthing approach to root out
       | fraudsters, but I dunno if that'd be effective, as I think the
       | main issue is subtle but pervasive bias seeping into studies by
       | most researchers, vs. a smaller number of heavy fraudsters.
       | Independent reproduction of results, while expensive, is the only
       | effective approach I can think of to combat this.
        
         | yodsanklai wrote:
         | > My gut feel from what I saw is that outright fraud is rare,
         | but bias seeping into the study is common
         | 
         | There's also a grey area between fraud and not checking your
         | work as thoroughly as you should.
         | 
         | For instance, I've witnessed a highly regarded researcher
         | (Turing award) telling his co-author not to bother about some
         | proof because nobody would read it.
        
           | yashap wrote:
           | Yeah totally, good example of the somewhat subtle ways bias
           | seeps in.
        
         | AussieWog93 wrote:
         | >My gut feel from what I saw is that outright fraud is rare,
         | but bias seeping into the study is common.
         | 
         | I have a similar experience and opinion (started a PhD, quit
         | when I lost faith in the institution).
         | 
         | In our field in particular, it seemed to be an open secret that
         | our current paradigm was a dead end, and this had been apparent
         | for almost a decade by the time I joined the university.
         | 
         | Yet, in spite of this fact that we were going nowhere, there
         | was extreme pressure to continue to toe the line. You couldn't
         | just try something new based on a hunch, but instead had to
         | perform fruitless experiments that were "guided by the
         | literature" and therefore easier to justify to the people
         | funding your endeavour.
         | 
         | The whole institution of academia is rotten, and going on a
         | witch hunt like the article suggests ignores several massive
         | elephants in the room.
        
         | tppiotrowski wrote:
         | > Some people might not see a difference between bias and
         | fraud, but I personally do. I think of fraud as a very
         | intentional deception, straight up falsifying numbers in a
         | conscious attempt to deceive.
         | 
         | Lets say you do three runs of the same psychology experiment
         | and only publish the results from the one where results are
         | most significant. I think most researchers would not consider
         | this fraud. You are publishing data that's absolutely true.
         | It's the selective cherry picking of data in order to produce
         | novel results that's rotting the field.
         | 
         | This is how I think researchers can sleep sound at night while
         | faith in science continues to erode.
        
           | Ar-Curunir wrote:
           | Erosion of faith in science (whatever that means) is not due
           | to research fraud lol.
        
           | yashap wrote:
           | That I would consider fraud, personally. I'm referring to
           | more subtle bias than that - like maybe you're putting
           | someone through a scenario, then trying to classify their
           | emotional state afterwards. You classify the clear states
           | properly, but are biased in classifying the borderline ones -
           | like it's not very clear if they're sad or anxious, but if
           | anxious fits your hypothesis better, you tend to classify
           | these unclear states as anxious.
           | 
           | Maybe that's not a good example, I'm not a psychologist. But
           | in my experience, scientific studies are full of a surprising
           | number of judgement calls, in all sorts of areas
           | (experimental design, experimental execution, result
           | classification, statistical analysis, exclusion of outliers,
           | etc.), and it's naive to think bias doesn't seep into all of
           | these, even for people who are quite committed to the ideals
           | of science. I can't think of a good way to combat this except
           | very extensive independent reproduction of results.
        
             | lucubratory wrote:
             | The situations you're describing should be prevented by a
             | double blind trial - they're actually exactly what a double
             | blind is meant to prevent.
        
           | thegrim33 wrote:
           | Interestingly, this correlates with fraud in journalism as
           | well. One common technique is that there's a set of events
           | that could be written about / published, but they choose to
           | only write about the events that positively promotes their
           | ideology, while the events that might negatively impact their
           | ideology are ignored and not shared to the world. It's one of
           | the ways that a news organization can "lie" without ever
           | actually telling a lie. By painting a picture of the world
           | using selectively chosen data based on a bias/agenda, rather
           | than a picture of the world that is based on all available
           | data.
        
         | hyperthesis wrote:
         | Feynman has a bit where empirixal measurements of some
         | universal constant (electron charge?) slowly crept up to the
         | now-accepted true value. He said scientists are a little bit
         | ashamed of this, because it showed that higher estimates were
         | discarded and not published - bias.
         | 
         | BTW scientists get no upvotes for merely reproducing "known"
         | results.
         | 
         | Is there a way to see _natural_ merit /discovery in reproducing
         | (not an artificial incentive, like grants for repeating
         | studies). Perhaps analogous to how teaching helps you
         | understand it better?
        
       | everybodyknows wrote:
       | > those who have committed fraud can rise to positions of
       | influence and eminence ...
       | 
       | > ... sideline any honest young scientists who want to do things
       | properly. I fear in some institutions this has already happened.
       | 
       | She has some names in mind!
        
         | greenyoda wrote:
         | The recent resignation of Stanford's president comes to mind:
         | 
         | https://www.npr.org/2023/07/19/1188828810/stanford-universit...
         | 
         | > _The president of Stanford University has resigned after an
         | investigation opened by the board of trustees found several
         | academic reports he authored contained manipulated data._
         | 
         | > _Marc Tessier-Lavigne, who has spent seven years as
         | president, authored 12 reports that contained falsified
         | information, including lab panels that had been stitched
         | together, panel backgrounds that were digitally altered and
         | blot results taken from other research papers._
        
       | yawnxyz wrote:
       | This article puts the onus on publishers / the scientific
       | publication process to catch and prevent fraud.
       | 
       | This is like asking merchants to catch and stop fraud and crime
       | (e.g. selling alcohol to kids); it's in their best interest to
       | not catch fraud and maximize their income.
       | 
       | The reason they do clamp down on underage drinking is because
       | they'll get fined/arrested / their license will be revoked. The
       | system cares enough to catch and punish the behavior.
       | 
       | If the funding bodies like NIH don't catch, punish and stop this
       | behavior, it creates a system where fraudsters win more. This
       | makes more groups, even if reluctant, participate in fraud
       | because that's the only way to compete. It's a race to the
       | bottom.
       | 
       | Money drives incentives, and clawing it back while blacklisting
       | and publicly humiliating a lab, will change behavior. That would
       | make the lab a toxic collaborator, especially if collaborators
       | ALSO get blacklisted from funding.
        
         | atrettel wrote:
         | What changes to the incentive structure do you think would help
         | here? Blacklisting seems appropriate for repeat offenders but
         | I'd be more interested in changing the incentives for funding
         | to prevent fraud in the first place. The problem with
         | blacklisting in my view is that many fraudsters who get away
         | with it will just continue anyway since they do not "learn
         | their lesson" until long after the damage is already done.
        
         | ta988 wrote:
         | NIH is using volunteers to review grants and some programs. So
         | same problem applies. I've even seen reviewers stealing the
         | work from grants they reviewed (and noted really badly so it
         | wouldn't get funded) and that same reviewer did it multiple
         | times. Nobody cared at NIH, the program officers said they
         | would look into it and many years later still nothing happened.
         | There is nothing really in place to solve blatant abuse.
        
       | atrettel wrote:
       | I can sympathize with the idea of a "scientific police force"
       | looking for fraud, but the fact is that we already attempt the
       | appearance of that through peer review.
       | 
       | The problem is that peer review right now only provides the
       | appearance of oversight. Referees are not given the time, money,
       | or resources to really dig into papers and look for issues. I
       | have peer reviewed 4 papers this year, averaging around 3 hours
       | per review. The onus is largely on the
       | referees/editors/publishers to immediately find something wrong
       | in the paper to reject it rather than on the authors to really
       | prove their case. And I mean "immediately". One journal that I
       | review for requires peer reviews within 2 weeks of accepting the
       | assignment, and they will nag you if you do not have it done
       | within a week. If the onus must be on the referees, they need to
       | be given much more time and resources, and that might even
       | include money, and also might include waiting for reproduction of
       | the results before publishing.
       | 
       | "Publish or perish" also plays a big role here, because
       | scientists need to get papers published to prove they are
       | productive and worthy of funding and employment. Authors will
       | just re-submit their manuscripts to different journals until they
       | are published rather than re-evaluating the research in any
       | fundamental manner (is my methodology flawed? etc.). So putting
       | the onus on referees isn't going to work in the first place,
       | since peer reviews are not always shared.
        
         | vlovich123 wrote:
         | Peer review's fundamental flaw is that science only works
         | through replication and peer review tries to sidestep that as a
         | cost saving measure. It doesn't mean there's no value - having
         | peers review your work can be valuable. But as any professional
         | coder can tell you, a code review is an extremely low quality
         | signal that can only catch obvious bugs, typos, and
         | stylistic/basic rule conformance issues. It can't explain why
         | you made various design decisions and whether those were any
         | good to begin with. I think its current role as gatekeeper is
         | probably overall more harmful than helpful as it lends
         | legitimacy it doesn't have a right to (ie this paper is right)
         | but I don't have a better suggestion other than independent
         | replication. Maybe more separation between who designs,
         | conducts and analyses experiments with the analysis people
         | being rewarded if there's no result while the design and
         | experiment people being paid if there is to set up a feedback
         | loop?
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Related:
       | https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/11/19/dorothy-bi...
       | 
       | (via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38336432, but we merged
       | that thread hither)
        
       | gunshai wrote:
       | > To date, the response of the scientific establishment has been
       | wholly inadequate. There is little attempt to proactively check
       | for fraud: science is still regarded as a gentlemanly pursuit
       | 
       | There is no incentive mechanism, it has been the problem all
       | along. The peer review process is clearly inadequate or not up to
       | the task in its current form.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2023-11-19 23:00 UTC)