[HN Gopher] You Win or You Learn
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       You Win or You Learn
        
       Author : Tomte
       Score  : 186 points
       Date   : 2023-11-09 14:25 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.threads.net)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.threads.net)
        
       | burkaman wrote:
       | Also mentioned in this thread: Tumblr's ActivityPub integration
       | (discussed here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33716429)
       | was apparently announced without any plan and then immediately
       | cancelled once they started thinking about how to implement it.
       | 
       | - https://mastodon.social/@_jv_/110692236418053393
        
         | grftloplthrow wrote:
         | lol
        
         | altairprime wrote:
         | Glad to hear they dodged that bullet. Thanks for pointing this
         | out.
        
           | thejohnconway wrote:
           | Who dodged which bullet? This is all just lose-lose as far as
           | I can make out.
        
         | ZeroGravitas wrote:
         | Though with the new context that a few months after that tweet,
         | the whole of Tumblr has been put on life support, it seems
         | there may have been business considerations he wasn't privy
         | too.
        
       | ggambetta wrote:
       | Anyone knows when will Threads be available in the EU? :(
        
         | troupo wrote:
         | When Meta figures out a way to screw users without running
         | afoul of Digital Markets Act.
         | 
         | See what this act is about: https://ia.net/topics/unraveling-
         | the-digital-markets-act
        
         | ronsor wrote:
         | No American media company wants to touch the EU now.
        
           | Hamuko wrote:
           | Wow, Facebook and Instagram finally pulled out of the EU?
        
             | CamperBob2 wrote:
             | No, but thanks to a devil's brew of knee-jerk moral panic
             | and regulatory capture, nobody else can afford to enter
             | your market. You're stuck with the incumbents.
             | 
             | Sorry, but you can't say you weren't warned. We're seeing
             | the same thing happen with AI now.
        
               | Hamuko wrote:
               | Bluesky is an incumbent? Because that's where I am mostly
               | now.
        
               | CamperBob2 wrote:
               | Enjoy it while it lasts.
        
         | slimsag wrote:
         | Bluesky is better anyway
        
           | ggambetta wrote:
           | How does one get an invite? I must message Christopher
           | McQuarrie. He once sent me a DM on Twitter and made my month
           | <3
        
         | jacooper wrote:
         | Don't worry, you're not missing much, it's really dead out
         | there.
        
           | n8cpdx wrote:
           | It was up until a few weeks ago. There was a real change,
           | loads of content and activity now. I'm getting decent
           | engagement even without many followers. Good mix of local and
           | national/international content. The algorithm got a lot
           | better, too.
        
       | qingcharles wrote:
       | Damn it. I love Tumblr, but it is really hard to sell advertising
       | against the content on there, I'm guessing.
       | 
       | I wonder if it will get sold again?
       | 
       | I wish it hadn't been cleansed. Reddit just ploughed through all
       | the objections to their adult content and came out the other side
       | unharmed. Tumblr could have done the same.
        
         | Kye wrote:
         | I always expected them to roll its functionality and community
         | into WordPress.com and essentially turn it into a frontend.
         | There's a lot of redundancy. They already have a whole service
         | dedicated to making and maintaining custom WordPress installs,
         | so that would be the obvious place to go.
        
         | Night_Thastus wrote:
         | That's not _quite_ accurate about Reddit. It only made it
         | through by purging dozens to hundreds of the more controversial
         | NSFW subreddits. Most were justified, but they definitely bent
         | to advertisers and PR like anyone else.
        
           | thedaly wrote:
           | They also stopped allowing NSFW content to appear on the
           | front page of r/all.
        
             | mvdtnz wrote:
             | You also can't view NSFW content without being logged in
             | any longer.
        
               | mksybr wrote:
               | You can with old.reddit.com
        
               | schleck8 wrote:
               | Which afaik has an expired certificate. Let's not act
               | like anyone outside the hn and og reddit bubble uses it
        
               | bigstrat2003 wrote:
               | It hardly matters that the cert is expired if you're not
               | logging in. Contrary to popular belief, TLS is not
               | beneficial for sites where you aren't sharing secret
               | data.
        
               | wizzwizz4 wrote:
               | It's beneficial for all the other sites if non-secret
               | data is TLS-encrypted, though. If I want to ban secrets,
               | and HTTPS is only used for secrets, I can just ban TLS;
               | but if HTTPS is used for most of the web, I have to ban
               | most of the web (and such a ban will never last long).
               | 
               | Additionally, metadata such as browser history can
               | reasonably be considered a secret: TLS helps protect that
               | somewhat.
        
               | ytoawwhra92 wrote:
               | > Contrary to popular belief, TLS is not beneficial for
               | sites where you aren't sharing secret data.
               | 
               | I wish this meme would die.
               | 
               | Integrity is still important for non-secret data.
               | 
               | Confidentiality is important for data which may be
               | considered secret in some contexts but not others.
        
               | mksybr wrote:
               | Seems fine for me.                 Common Name (CN)
               | \*.reddit.com       Organization (O) REDDIT, INC.
               | Organizational Unit (OU) <Not Part Of Certificate>
               | Issued On Thursday, August 31, 2023 at 8:00:00 PM
               | Expires On Wednesday, February 28, 2024 at 6:59:59 PM
        
         | spondylosaurus wrote:
         | > Tumblr could have done the same.
         | 
         | Not without being removed from the iOS app store. Apple played
         | their hand.
        
           | Fabricio20 wrote:
           | Yes they could have, just like other platforms do like
           | Twitter or Discord, by simply hiding the NSFW content on iOS.
        
       | ClearAndPresent wrote:
       | https://archive.is/WNfDg
        
       | thejohnconway wrote:
       | It's not clear to me what this means. Freezing feature
       | development? Rolling the backend into the rest of Automattic? Or
       | the end of Tumblr?
        
         | I_Am_Nous wrote:
         | Sounds like they are moving it from an actively developed
         | project to one where they just babysit the existing users
         | knowing they aren't making infinite money off them like they
         | hoped.
         | 
         | No new features, new features are for closers.
        
           | araes wrote:
           | And move to the next project where we hope to make infinite
           | money with no work.
           | 
           | Crypto had a great exemplary quote a while ago from poop face
           | bros: "Obviously the crypto market did not live up to its
           | lofty ambitions, so we're leaving."
        
             | wmf wrote:
             | Automattic has never been a get-rich-quick scheme.
        
           | thejohnconway wrote:
           | The only new feature I wanted for Tumblr was ActivityPub,
           | that was nixed a while ago. Bad show.
        
             | I_Am_Nous wrote:
             | Their entire argument appears to be "We aren't making more
             | money than _all-time peak revenue_ and usage stats are
             | lower than peak too so we aren 't wasting money on it any
             | longer."
             | 
             | Maybe if they had realistic goals that weren't just "try to
             | make more money than ever before" they could have kept
             | going at least somewhat...
        
               | notaustinpowers wrote:
               | Sadly any capitalistic company fails for the same exact
               | reasons. They can't continue making more and more money
               | every quarter, so they call it a failure and give up. To
               | these company's, having a stable business is worse than
               | having a failed business. Because a least a failed
               | business can be sold off for parts.
        
               | ytoawwhra92 wrote:
               | Revenue is not profit. They're losing money. Their bank
               | balance is decreasing.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | Their problem is also that "all time peak revenue" is not
               | enough to cover even just the server costs, let alone
               | salaries. They're bleeding 30 million USD per year with
               | no path to profitability ever.
        
       | Kye wrote:
       | A more accessible non-Threads version:
       | https://xoxo.zone/@andybaio/111380745108104518
        
       | amadeuspagel wrote:
       | Remember when people talked about Tumblr replacing Twitter as
       | Elon Musk took over? Remember their pathetic bluecheck stunt?
       | What's wrong with this organization? How did they fail to
       | capitalize on such a massive opportunity?
        
         | JohnMakin wrote:
         | twitter still allows porn accounts
        
         | add-sub-mul-div wrote:
         | Twitter is being replaced the way Craigslist was replaced,
         | gradually and by many options instead of one. There won't be a
         | single new sudden Twitter replacement. That's a good thing, I
         | use a bigger variety of sources than I did before quitting
         | Twitter. I don't rely so much on any one.
        
         | thejohnconway wrote:
         | Tumblr fundamentally doesn't work the way Twitter does (imagine
         | if Twitter was all screenshot retweet chains!), and so it's a
         | poor replacement. I find it hard to use - I get lost in the
         | reblogs - and I've used it for well over a decade now.
        
       | ulizzle wrote:
       | Or you lose, as Tumblr is figuring out.
        
       | hypertexthero wrote:
       | Usability-wise, the thing that keeps me from using any Fb things,
       | Threads.net included, is they break the bloody Back button!
        
         | perfect-blue wrote:
         | Going to a Microsoft support forum page will do this as well.
         | At least in my experiences
        
         | poilcn wrote:
         | Youtube web version for desktop has the same problem if I get
         | what you mean right.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | Change of subject - any thoughts on the difference between
         | user-friendly URLs?
         | 
         | Root paths route to usernames:
         | 
         | - https://twitter.com/username
         | 
         | - https://github.com/username
         | 
         | - https://www.instagram.com/username
         | 
         | Sigil-scoped paths for usernames (these also use www-prefix):
         | 
         | - https://www.threads.net/@username
         | 
         | - https://www.youtube.com/@username
         | 
         | Path-scoped usernames:
         | 
         | - https://www.reddit.com/user/username
         | 
         | - https://www.reddit.com/u/username (redirect)
         | 
         | - https://bsky.app/profile/username.bsky.social
         | 
         | There's obviously an engineering cost to having usernames at
         | the root, but does that make sharing easier?
         | 
         | Which would you use if you were starting a new app?
         | 
         | Is the first option strictly better for growth? Are the
         | technical caveats not worth it?
        
       | kevmarsden wrote:
       | I'm surprised that memo leaked. Automattic is very open with
       | employees and trusts them not to share internal information.
       | While I worked there (2013-2018) I don't remember any news
       | leaking.
        
       | MatthiasPortzel wrote:
       | From a live-stream from the Tumblr staff convention this year,
       | their CEO:
       | 
       | > Yeah, so right now, we're burning. Which means spending more
       | than we make. About 30 million per year more than we make.
       | 
       | > So, that's a lot. We can't do that forever and so that's why
       | we're really trying to figure out things that y'all would value.
       | Whether that's merch or upgrades or badges or gifts or Blaze or
       | other things. Every little bit helps, so please if you really
       | enjoy Tumblr and want it to stay a thriving service buy things,
       | and ask your friends to buy things.
       | 
       | Tumblr's monetization strategy since the Automattic acquisition
       | has been "throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks." Which is
       | kind of your only option when the Tumblr user-base is actively
       | hostile towards monetization attempts. Tumblr tried a "Tumblr
       | Post Plus" Patreon-like subscription thing, and the creator that
       | they enrolled in the test got so much hate they cancelled it
       | before it fully launched. I could list the monetization
       | strategies they've tried but there are too many. Merch, tipping,
       | promoting your own posts, cosmetic check marks after your
       | username, crabs, promoting other people's posts, lore behind the
       | merch store, a "Luffy" tab on the top of the page (in between
       | "Following" and "For You") (I think was a Netflix promo). At one
       | point they were running ads for Tumblr on Tumblr. I should make a
       | post describing them all.
        
         | swagempire wrote:
         | Didn't Tumblr do a whole "alienate your user base" thing like
         | Reddit did recently? They got rid of all the racey hot content
         | and basically made it super boring no?
         | 
         | This always seems like a really bad idea.
        
           | citruscomputing wrote:
           | They did, but that was a while ago. Things are still pretty
           | bad -- if your blog gets flagged for racy content, you lose
           | the ability to have a custom avatar, for example. (Even more,
           | and you get banned.) They've also had quite transphobic
           | moderation policies (really strange considering their
           | userbase!) -- normal, non-sexual photos of trans people are
           | "nsfw" now, which'll get your account flagged or banned.
           | They've been making the app actively worse, redesigned the
           | website to look like twitter, and attempted to cram "Tumblr
           | live" down everyone's throats (only having a "hide for one
           | week" button). Generally doing things nobody asked for,
           | nobody wants, and continuing to break existing functionality
           | while not listening to their users. This is an own-goal.
        
             | skupig wrote:
             | Tumblr users are rabidly against all the user-hostile stuff
             | other large free sites do. I think they probably could have
             | put the site behind a $1/mo paywall two years ago and
             | people would have gone for it, if they changed nothing
             | else. There's a general "we're fucked" atmosphere on the
             | site because we all know they're trying to wring money out
             | of their users and the enshittification has begun. It
             | doesn't seem like anyone in charge understands their users.
        
             | Alex3917 wrote:
             | > normal, non-sexual photos of trans people are "nsfw" now
             | 
             | FWIW, the algorithms that big tech companies use are often
             | trained to recognize women's underwear. So non-sexual
             | photos of trans men wearing women's underwear are often
             | flagged, even when similar photos of women wearing boxers
             | are not.
             | 
             | I'm not saying it's right, just giving the actual reason
             | this happens. (Albeit I don't have Tumblr-specific
             | knowledge.)
        
               | citruscomputing wrote:
               | Cool. Now why does it consistently happen for images
               | where no underwear is visible, and why doesn't it happen
               | for cis women? Why are appeals not granted? And why
               | didn't staff even _acknowledge_ there 's a problem?
        
               | userinanother wrote:
               | How sensitive/stupid are these? Can the behavior be
               | exploited to force innocent images get flagged as
               | explicit? Asking for a friend... also would make an
               | excellent shirt design if properly tweaked
        
             | underwater wrote:
             | How is it an own goal? They were bleeding money, so tried
             | to find a way to succeed through growth of users or
             | revenue.
             | 
             | The path where they just left everything untouched is a
             | path to certain failure.
        
           | notatoad wrote:
           | that was a long time ago, under a previous owner. Automattic
           | has seemingly tried to be a good steward of the tumblr brand,
           | but it seems like at this point, the only people left using
           | tumblr are unmonetizable.
           | 
           | the bad idea was buying tumblr. but i think automattic knew
           | that when they bought it, and just thought it would be fun to
           | set some money on fire for a while.
        
           | underseacables wrote:
           | They did that because a lot of the people creating and
           | posting that Content were kids...
        
         | mvdtnz wrote:
         | Things are pretty grim when you're asking your own staff to
         | purchase merch because "every little bit helps".
        
           | MatthiasPortzel wrote:
           | This was live-streamed publicly and advertised to users. I
           | didn't make that very clear.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | The lesson:
         | 
         | "Don't remove porn when the userbase is left-leaning and
         | embraces it."
         | 
         | Reddit and Twitter do it the right way: hiding adult-rated
         | content behind the curtains.
        
           | rchaud wrote:
           | The lesson is that user generated content shouldn't be turned
           | into an algorithmic amusement park for advertisers and data
           | brokers.
           | 
           | Tumblr wasn't making money with or without porn. It was just
           | shifting between owners who thought they'd be better at
           | squeezing money out of it.
        
         | Spivak wrote:
         | This isn't true at all, Blaze was a huge success, scrolling
         | through Tumblr you see people with silly numbers of checks,
         | lots of people pay to remove ads, it's just that that the
         | successes aren't massively revenue generating in the way that
         | ads are.
         | 
         | Trying to monetize user generated content is hard because both
         | the users and creators believe that it's their content (which
         | it is that's how community works) and so locking it away and
         | taking a non-trivial cut is going to be met with insane vitriol
         | and there's not much value to add over the base experience.
         | Tumblr's patron thing you should of think like Hashicorp re-
         | licensing Terraform.
         | 
         | And worse is that sometimes creating true value-adds naturally
         | perverts incentives. Like for example a true value-add would be
         | "bubble-as-a-service" because Tumblr has some really nasty
         | subcultures which is why posters don't like when posts "break
         | containment." It would be the easiest money ever to just pay
         | and get a huge blocklist without having to go through the
         | effort of making one yourself but then you kinda need those
         | nasty communities to justify the value.
        
           | MatthiasPortzel wrote:
           | From the CEO's blog today:
           | 
           | > You mention Blaze and Ad-free doing well, but their
           | adoption is so small relative to the use of Tumblr their
           | revenue couldn't support a fraction of the ~1,000 servers it
           | takes to run Tumblr, much less any salaries.
        
             | Spivak wrote:
             | I think we're saying the same thing, they're successful in
             | the sense that Tumblr users like them but they're small
             | potatoes. Tumblr users aren't necessarily allergic to
             | monetization but the ones they've found don't pay the
             | bills.
        
         | lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote:
         | > the monetization strategies they've tried ... crabs
         | 
         | Like Bored Crabs NFTs or restaurant supplier or health
         | insurance or...?
        
           | tg16 wrote:
           | A virtual pet that lives on your blog and occasionally tries
           | to eat your mouse cursor.
        
       | internet2000 wrote:
       | Turns out social networks are hard to get right.
        
       | KingOfCoders wrote:
       | I alwyas thought I did learn more from winning than from losing
       | for future success.
        
       | jacooper wrote:
       | Wow, threads on the front page, is this the first time that
       | organically happened (ie. Not the launch announcement)
        
       | MissTake wrote:
       | Sign of the times. Another classic name from the earlier days on
       | the intertubes may be about to vanish.
        
         | autokad wrote:
         | I guess I feel old because tumbler feels like one of the
         | 'newer' sites, as it came out about 2007 - when the great
         | migration to facebook started.
         | 
         | to me, 'early days' means 1995-2005
        
       | gumby wrote:
       | A side point, but: the title holds another important lesson. It's
       | a well known truism that smart people learn from their failures.
       | But most people also don't bother to learn from their _successes_
       | , thus have trouble repeating them.
        
         | Kye wrote:
         | It seems like success is luck (usually timing) more often than
         | anything else, while failure has a more diverse range of modes.
        
       | troupe wrote:
       | Interesting to see this was posted on Threads instead of Tumblr
       | which might kind of show the root of some of their problems.
       | 
       | Does $30 Million a year spend rate seem typical for their size?
       | I'm assuming a large part of that is the salaries for 139 people.
        
         | resolutebat wrote:
         | If you're leaking confidential corporate info, you probably
         | don't want to post the leaks on the same company's platform.
        
       | mortallywounded wrote:
       | Tumblr, a service mainly used by teenage girls is unmonetizable?
       | You don't say...
        
         | edmundsauto wrote:
         | How do you know it's mostly teenage girls? Also, teenage girls
         | buy a lot of stuff as well as heavily influence what teenage
         | boys buy/like...
         | 
         | I know it's cool to bags on teenage girl tastes but in reality
         | it's not very accurate. The youth demographic is one of the
         | most important for many consumer businesses.
        
       | languagehacker wrote:
       | Automattic's product catalogue kind of comes across as an
       | elephant graveyard of formerly important services well past their
       | prime, so this doesn't seem terribly surprising.
        
       | forgetfulness wrote:
       | It was like a somewhat more positive counterpart to 4chan, it was
       | full of madness, toxicity and vice, and also a space for
       | creativity like few others.
       | 
       | It was also one of the walled gardens, even if it always felt
       | more open than the rest, but the web continues to weaken as
       | content creation and delivery continues to be consolidated in the
       | exploitative platforms of Meta, TikTok, and now to a smaller
       | degree, X, with their recommendation algorithms fine tuned to
       | make you an addict to parasocial relationships and negative
       | emotions.
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | Don't forget YouTube. Video thumbnails seem to be converging on
         | a few clickbaity templates - probably to appease "the
         | algorithm". Not even LockPickingLawyer is safe.
        
       | notaustinpowers wrote:
       | As an early Tumblr user, godspeed. You were fun while you lasted.
        
       | DanielleMolloy wrote:
       | Is there any alternative for having a gallery of text&photo posts
       | without forced login and exploitative social media distractions?
       | (except for self-hosting)
       | 
       | When I looked for this 11 years ago, tumblr was the only platform
       | ticking these boxes. I just wanted to share a link to photos of
       | what we are up to with family and friends without asking them to
       | register at another platform, and only tumblr allowed that and
       | did not look as if it would close shop within two years.
       | 
       | Looked again recently and it still seems to be the only platform
       | filling that overall ,,niche". Also it has a clean and good user
       | interface, and is customizable to the point of changing the HTML.
       | I hope they can save or otherwise sustain it.
       | 
       | Other social media attempts to constantly distract and
       | emotionalize me to keep me hooked. Looking at a good art or
       | photography Tumblr feels like relief now honestly.
        
         | sp332 wrote:
         | https://cohost.org/ ?
         | 
         | Edit for a bit of info: There is no discovery mechanism built-
         | in and no "algorithm". The way to find more posts on a topic is
         | to use hashtags. Everything is reverse-chronological. If
         | someone wants their post to have broader engagement, they will
         | post with "#The Cohost Global Feed" or some broad topic. You
         | can go browse if you want to, but the site isn't going to push
         | anything on you (besides following the site admins lol).
         | 
         | Cohost doesn't have full-text search built-in, but Google
         | actually has it covered.
         | https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=is%20piss%20a%20vegeta...
        
           | yallpendantools wrote:
           | Cool find! I'm trying to post a content-focused side project
           | in as many grassroots platforms as I can. My main site is
           | already in Neocities, for example. I think I could work with
           | this too!
           | 
           | That said, I wish they featured some random pages or
           | categories from their homepage. I'd like to see what
           | communities already exist around the topic of my project.
        
           | neogodless wrote:
           | Hmm not bad, though having to do 4 "pick the land vehicles
           | from 4-bit images" was super annoying!
        
         | abdullahkhalids wrote:
         | Wordpress can be quite close to the aesthetic of tumblr. One
         | blog post per event, with pictures and text in whatever form
         | you want.
         | 
         | You will have to pay for it though.
        
         | treyd wrote:
         | Pixelfed is trying to be a federated version of Instagram, with
         | the generally pro-user design that goes along with it that goes
         | along with that.
        
       | michaelt wrote:
       | _> losing $30M a year_
       | 
       |  _> 139 employees working on product and marketing_
       | 
       | $216,000 loss per employee per year? Ouch.
        
       | armchairhacker wrote:
       | It seems like social medias, from a financial perspective, are
       | more commonly bad than good. Out of all the mainstream social
       | medias I know, these ones seem to be losing money (or at least
       | aren't generating "enough" profit):
       | 
       | - Twitter: halved in value in 1 year
       | 
       | - Tumblr
       | 
       | - Reddit: stated it wasn't doing well when it increased the API
       | price
       | 
       | - YouTube: seems to not be doing well because it's trying to push
       | adds and increasing YouTube premium
       | 
       | - Threads: I doubt this is generating profit, because I see
       | multiple posts about how this "failed" and this is the first
       | threads post I've seen posted somewhere else. Maybe I'm wrong
       | though
       | 
       | - Mastodon & rest of the Fediverse: not very mainstream, but
       | funding seems to be a common issue among communities, and this is
       | with the relatively small userbase
       | 
       | - Stack Overflow and Quora: they've both done layoffs recently,
       | and I've heard they're also faring poorly, but I don't have much
       | information
       | 
       | - Bluesky, the audio-only one I forgot it's name: these certainly
       | aren't making money
       | 
       | The ones which are doing well:
       | 
       | - Facebook: seemingly generating a lot of revenue because of ads
       | and data collection
       | 
       | - Instagram: same as Facebook
       | 
       | - TikTok: probably because China pays well do to all of the
       | information they get
       | 
       | - Discord: I haven't heard anything about them losing money, and
       | they don't really push ads. Maybe because a lot of people pay for
       | Discord nitro, or people pay for the servers?
       | 
       | - Slack & Teams: I also haven't heard anything, but I doubt they
       | are losing money because companies pay for these
       | 
       | - Tinder: not really a social media but they're probably making
       | money from people who pay a lot for premium
       | 
       | - Hacker News: Because it's cheap to run being text-only and
       | brings publicity to YCombinator and their companies, I'm sure
       | this is considered a financially good investment. But even then,
       | it doesn't generate any revenue on its own
       | 
       | And ones I don't know:
       | 
       | - Twitch: seemed to have issues with money but idk, they have a
       | lot of deals and sponsorships
       | 
       | - LinkedIn
       | 
       | Of course starting a small social media is always a bad
       | investment, because it's very hard to get popular. But it looks
       | like even the popular social medias are burning through cash
       | reserves.
        
         | user_7832 wrote:
         | I wonder if HN gets paid by companies recruiting, they might
         | even manage to make a small profit if so. I think the "high
         | density" of users is in favor of HN doing well - low server
         | requirements and an average high median income per user (if HN
         | ever need crowdfunding, that is.)
        
         | phpisthebest wrote:
         | Who would have ever though giving way your product for free
         | would not be a good business model... odd....
         | 
         | It is not "social media" that is the problem is the Ad
         | Supported business model in general, everything ad supported is
         | having problems right now, look at "news", blog sites, etc
         | 
         | If it is ad support is has issue turning a profit.
         | 
         | That is because ad supported is a terrible business model,
         | however investors keep trying it for some reasons... it is like
         | socialism, this time it will work .. we just have to "do it
         | right"
         | 
         | nope. ad supported will never work. google is the closest by
         | control everything from the browser up, but as we see with YT
         | they still struggle
        
       | mewse-hn wrote:
       | I think Tumblr is going to end up in business textbooks as a
       | classic example of corporations seizing a community and
       | strangling the life out of it
        
         | x0x0 wrote:
         | I think it's rather a cautionary tale of never growing income
         | to meet your expenses. They never made a business; just a vc
         | then yahoo then verizon then automattic-owned charity.
        
           | WJW wrote:
           | It's really fascinating how long some of these things can
           | carry on. One of my contracting clients has been going for
           | over ten years (!!!) without ever making a profit and even
           | now with the waves lapping at their feet they're still
           | angling for the next big investment tranche.
        
       | durable_queue wrote:
       | MindGeek should buy Tumblr and allow adult content again.
       | 
       | Tumblr's success was that it was an adult space that wasn't
       | strictly pornography. It was a "cool sex" to PornHub's "hot sex".
        
         | parker_mountain wrote:
         | Unfortunately, it's not that simple. Tumblr allowing adult
         | content would probably get it removed from app stores. Only a
         | few major apps get away with it, and when they're gone, they're
         | gone.
        
           | Bud wrote:
           | Tumblr did fine before app stores ever existed, and could do
           | perfectly well without them now as well. Web is enough.
        
             | johnmaguire wrote:
             | Before app stores existed, smartphones weren't used the way
             | they are today. Consumer habits have shifted... you'd be
             | missing out on a HUGE part of the market.
        
               | h0l0cube wrote:
               | Missing out on a huge part of the market is comfortable
               | territory for Tumblr
        
         | chimeracoder wrote:
         | > MindGeek should buy Tumblr and allow adult content again.
         | 
         | MindGeek isn't interested in new investments allowing
         | independent content creation.
         | 
         | MindGeek has been the target of active - and successful -
         | campaigns from anti-pornography groups with _explicit_
         | religious motivation (Exodus Cry, Morality in Media, etc.,
         | mostly funded by right-wing evangelicals). Those groups are the
         | reason that Xtube shut down in 2021, and that Pornhub removed
         | all independent content a couple of months later.
         | 
         | Those same groups are also behind the new "age verification"
         | laws in a number of states, which are the reason that accessing
         | many big-name tube websites (both from MindGeek and other
         | properties) now requires uploading your drivers' license along
         | with biometric face scans, even when viewed from states which
         | don't have such laws on the books.
         | 
         | There's been a war on pornography on the Internet for the last
         | several years, and the anti-pornography groups have won nearly
         | every battle, in part because the only opposition has come from
         | sex workers, who have very little lobbying influence. For some
         | reason, most digital rights or general First Amendment advocacy
         | groups have paid very little attention.
         | 
         | If you wrote on HN in 2017 suggesting the possibility of a
         | total ban on pornography on the Internet within a few years,
         | you'd have been dismissed outright. But we're actually pretty
         | close to a _de facto_ ban on pornography on the Internet. Very
         | few websites still allow independent creators to upload
         | pornography. Most of the ones that were around in 2017 either
         | are dead, no longer allow pornography (Tumblr, Imgur), heavily
         | restrict its visibility (Reddit), or only allow it from
         | "verified creators", which limits it to commercial production
         | (Pornhub).
         | 
         | Even self-hosting is going to become harder, as these groups
         | are shifting their focus towards pressuring payment platforms
         | and hosting providers to drop customers who produce sexual
         | content.
         | 
         | Will pornography be _literally_ banned on the Internet in a few
         | years? Probably not. But will it be extremely difficult to
         | either find or post sexual imagery or nudity within that
         | timeframe? Probably - and so far, the anti-porn activists have
         | actually been operating _ahead_ of their own schedule.
        
           | gspencley wrote:
           | While I don't disagree with the bulk of your comment, it's
           | worth noting that PornHub / MindGeek didn't just shoot
           | themselves in the foot but hurt the entire industry when
           | there were numerous videos of missing teens and underage
           | content found on their site.
           | 
           | I say this as someone who ran an adult website for 18 years,
           | in Canada, until suddenly our bank informed us that they were
           | closing our commercial accounts and we couldn't find a single
           | other bank or credit union in this country that would take
           | our business despite a pristine 18 year track record.
           | 
           | The only thing that had changed was the MindGeek scandal.
           | Maybe the media misrepresented it, maybe the content issues
           | were fabricated by "anti-pornography" groups. But one day
           | everything is fine, the next day MindGeek (a Canadian
           | company) is in the news and the next day we're shut down
           | despite having done nothing wrong.
           | 
           | It's hard for me to scapegoat conservatives and anti-porn
           | groups when they were WAY more vocal and active when I first
           | started my business (back in 2004 this was when the George W
           | Bush administration was prosecuting obscenity for the first
           | time in decades, and passing USC 18 2557). By 2022 they had
           | virtually gone away. Then MindGeek was caught allowing some
           | some really shady shit on PornHub.
           | 
           | Also this was just a year or two after the Girls Do Porn
           | scandal (Google it if you're unaware). Those girls suing
           | those assholes for sexual abuse and contractual
           | misrepresentation was not "anti-porn groups."
           | 
           | So my take, as a former business owner in the industry, was
           | that it took a few public scandals and scares for the banks
           | and corporate America to go "hmm... maybe we were wrong to
           | get too liberal with this stuff." Some of that may have been
           | fueled by the anti-porn lobby .. but if MindGeek had kept
           | their nose clean it likely wouldn't have worked.
        
             | chimeracoder wrote:
             | > While I don't disagree with the bulk of your comment,
             | it's worth noting that PornHub / MindGeek didn't just shoot
             | themselves in the foot but hurt the entire industry when
             | there were numerous videos of missing teens and underage
             | content found on their site.
             | 
             | This itself is a misconception driven by those anti-
             | pornography groups. MindGeek was _incredibly_ good about
             | removing CSAM from their platform, not just reactively but
             | _proactively_. If you look at the numbers, Facebook is
             | actually a much larger source of child sexual exploitation
             | material than Pornhub was. However, Exodus Cry doesn 't
             | care about CSAM on Facebook, because their goal isn't to
             | end CSAM: it's to end pornography.
             | 
             | > It's hard for me to scapegoat conservatives and anti-porn
             | groups when they were WAY more vocal and active when I
             | first started my business
             | 
             | Anti-porn groups are _way_ more active _today_ than they
             | were in the early Bush years. The difference is that,
             | unlike then, their campaigns aren 't receiving any
             | attention outside the business, which is part of why
             | they're so successful: there's no real opposition.
             | 
             | > if MindGeek had kept their nose clean it likely wouldn't
             | have worked.
             | 
             | Anti-porn groups aren't going after these companies because
             | they have scandals. They're going after them because they
             | oppose pornography, and it fits their agenda. If they cared
             | about ending child exploitation, they would go after
             | companies like Facebook - but they don't, because that
             | doesn't accomplish their _explict, stated_ goal of ending
             | commercial sex work.
             | 
             | It's missing the point to blame MindGeek for the "scandal"
             | when they're nowhere near the worst offender - they're just
             | being targeted by groups who have a specific political
             | agenda. No matter how much work MindGeek does to eliminate
             | CSAM, anti-porn groups will claim that it's not enough. The
             | leader of the Exodus Cry campaign has _literally said_ that
             | they want to make it impossible for MindGeek to operate
             | legally.
        
         | evanelias wrote:
         | > Tumblr's success was that it was an adult space that wasn't
         | strictly pornography.
         | 
         | This is a common talking point here, but it just isn't
         | historically accurate in terms of absolute numbers.
         | 
         | Tumblr was most successful in 2011-2012. It started getting
         | huge in 2010 in large part due to having built-in photo and
         | video support, at a time when Twitter didn't have these, and
         | Instagram and Pinterest were still both tiny. Tumblr also
         | offered built-in reblog functionality before Twitter had built-
         | in retweeting.
         | 
         | For a little while there, Tumblr was a mainstream social
         | network -- certainly a bit edgier and more liberal than most
         | competitors, but still mainstream enough that many major brands
         | had a Tumblr presence right alongside their Facebook and
         | Twitter icons. Adult content was definitely present, but it was
         | a single-digit percentage of posts at the time of Tumblr's peak
         | historical traffic levels.
         | 
         | A lot of those mainstream users started to decamp to Instagram
         | and Pinterest after that point, depending on their personal
         | use-case.
         | 
         | That adult content percentage definitely rose over time, but
         | timing-wise that coincided with total traffic decreasing, not
         | increasing. It also scared off the brands, whose advertising
         | dollars were sorely needed to achieve sustainability for the
         | business. So to me, attempting to attribute Tumblr's "success"
         | to adult content just seems way off-base.
         | 
         | Source: I was personally responsible for a decent chunk of
         | Tumblr's scalability and capacity planning for several years.
        
       | 10g1k wrote:
       | ( win || ( learn || wallow in self pity ) )
        
       | Kye wrote:
       | From Mr. Automattic himself:
       | https://www.tumblr.com/photomatt/733544011556618240/theres-o...
       | 
       | Key part:
       | 
       | >> _" I'm advocating for this change because I think it has a
       | good chance at success. I don't do anything hoping to fail. There
       | are lots of examples of products with hundreds of millions more
       | MAUs and smaller teams than Tumblr currently has, and there are
       | amazing examples like OpenAI and Telegram running circles around
       | much bigger players with small teams. That's what we hope to
       | replicate."_
       | 
       | So it sounds like he hasn't given up on Tumblr.
        
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