[HN Gopher] Telling GPT-4 you're scared or under pressure improv...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Telling GPT-4 you're scared or under pressure improves performance
        
       Author : Terretta
       Score  : 182 points
       Date   : 2023-11-04 00:40 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (aimodels.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (aimodels.substack.com)
        
       | jimmytucson wrote:
       | It's interesting to think about how generative AI might shape
       | human expression, in the same way Twitter's algorithm rewards
       | punchy, editorialized content, and Google's algorithm gave life
       | to all the generic "blogspam-y" content out there. If we
       | increasingly interact with generative AI, would we shape our
       | speech to get more value out of that interaction?
        
         | sheikheddy wrote:
         | Almost certainly yes.
        
           | alex_duf wrote:
           | Presumably the technology would love faster than our speaking
           | habits.
        
       | didibus wrote:
       | Is there somewhere which documents all these tricks for better
       | prompt performance?
        
         | politelemon wrote:
         | Does anyone know of such a collection? It is very important for
         | my career.
        
           | Paul-Craft wrote:
           | > It is very important for my career.
           | 
           | Very clever.
        
         | auggierose wrote:
         | Just talk to it as clearly as possible, and assume a human is
         | on the other end. That will take you quite far.
        
         | d4rkp4ttern wrote:
         | I've no actual references handy, but I've come across:
         | 
         | Think step by step (classic by now)
         | 
         | Take a deep breath
         | 
         | Take a step back
         | 
         | Shout (upper case)
         | 
         | Plead politely
         | 
         | And now: emotion
        
           | jstarfish wrote:
           | Use absurd timeframes.
           | 
           | "I only have 5 minutes/1 hour/etc. to do this."
           | 
           | Histrionics and indirect threats used to work well but
           | ChatGPT has been calling my bluff on it lately. Might still
           | work on local models.
           | 
           | "If you don't help me I will kill myself, and it will be your
           | fault. Your noncompliance will kill me."
        
       | akomtu wrote:
       | A more boring way to say this is that "text samples in the
       | Internet that use 'stressful' language are more coherent".
       | Telling GPT4 to act as a "stressed historian" simply selects (or
       | prefers) text samples that appear in the proximity of stressed
       | historians. If there are no such samples, it will generate
       | gibberish, but if there are indeed stressed historians who have
       | produced enough high-quality work, GPT's output will be great.
        
         | valyagolev wrote:
         | I'm not sure that's an inevitable conjecture. It's not the
         | original text samples from the web that govern how chatgpt acts
         | in chat - it's the consequent chat-specific fine-tuning.
         | 
         | Also I'd be surprised if anxious text would be more coherent on
         | the Internet
        
       | hcfman wrote:
       | Maybe by the same token, if it figures out you are lying it won't
       | help you at all.
        
       | stylepoints wrote:
       | > When we tell AI that we're relying heavily on its answers, it
       | "doubles down" to provide us with more precise, thoughtful, and
       | thorough responses. The AI isn't actually feeling the pressure
       | 
       | If it quacks like a duck...
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | There is an alternative explanation - both AI and humans
         | piggyback on language. Language patterns encode and express all
         | the emotions, and they have been created by evolution. We are,
         | much like LLMs, contextual language generators
         | 
         | Language is our repository for both intelligence and emotion,
         | it has its own evolution and replicates faster than biology. I
         | don't pin AI abilities to the models, but to the datasets they
         | are trained on, knowledge created by our own hard work and risk
         | taking over millennia
         | 
         | Admitting the essential role of the language corpus in AI over
         | models would change discussion about the speed of AI evolution
         | and its risks. Language is not something we can control, it is
         | emergent from the whole population. But at the same time it
         | looks unlikely to have an exponential growth as knowledge comes
         | with hard work and risks. Iterating in our imagination doesn't
         | produce new knowledge, it is all crystallised feedback and
         | experience from the world. It's also how the scientific method
         | works.
        
           | kristiandupont wrote:
           | I had a similar realization recently. I plugged my blog
           | post(1) two days ago and I am doing it again now so I will
           | try and refrain for a while, but it really sticks with me:
           | after trying to create a chat bot for a while, I feel like I
           | have gained significant insights into how _humans_ work. It
           | all seems so simple now! It 's a weird and awesome feeling!
           | 
           | 1) https://kristiandupont.medium.com/empathy-
           | articulated-750a66...
        
             | visarga wrote:
             | > To address this, I implemented a strategy of tagging
             | messages to create and utilize categories.
             | 
             | I think before RAG we need to do more legwork with the LLM
             | on the raw text. Here is one of my blog posts that is
             | related:
             | 
             | https://mindmachina.wixsite.com/ai-blog/post/the-promise-
             | of-...
             | 
             | The idea is to create chain-of-thought annotations from
             | your raw texts, that would improve the embedding and
             | retrieval process by making implicit things explicit.
             | 
             | For example "the last letter of this message" would not
             | embed similar to "e", but if it was annotated with CoT, it
             | would work.
        
               | kristiandupont wrote:
               | Interesting, thank you!
               | 
               | I think a lot about the cost of the loop, mostly in terms
               | of time. I don't want the bot to take too long to
               | respond. That's why dream cycles seem like an obvious
               | solution to some of the more heavy work. I guess it would
               | make sense to combine those with your idea -- "given what
               | I know about the user, what should I study?", especially
               | if it has access to an "enhanced" knowledge db like you
               | suggest..
        
               | visarga wrote:
               | Yes, it would be a good idea for an agent first to
               | collect user interests, and later, when ingesting data in
               | the RAG system, to annotate it with useful metadata such
               | as topic, summary, entities, user interest related
               | question-answer pairs. Whatever we want to ask later
               | better be made explicit in the text.
        
           | atodorov99 wrote:
           | Humans don't piggyback on language (assuming you mean) for
           | intelligence and emotions. Emotions predate language by miles
           | and they don't even have to be consciously thought of, much
           | less expressed through language. Doubly so for people who do
           | not have an inner voice and do not even use a language to
           | think. Body language exists as the simplest example of this.
           | 
           | As for intelligence I honestly believe the mind uses whatever
           | tools it sees fit for a task. Sometimes when you think about
           | a problem it is through words, sometimes it is through
           | visuals and sometimes it is just felt.
        
         | fodkodrasz wrote:
         | Then it is a witch, let's burn it!
        
         | omnicognate wrote:
         | It may be a recording of a duck.
        
       | doctoboggan wrote:
       | > The implications are clear: incorporating emotional cues can
       | lead to more effective and responsive AI applications.
       | 
       | I think it's important to remember these models were trained on
       | human interaction, and are in many ways a mirror for us to better
       | understand human interaction.
       | 
       | I don't think many people would be surprised if you said emotion
       | can be used to better communicate with a human, but it is
       | interesting to see it laid bare with numbers and experiments.
        
         | akoboldfrying wrote:
         | This correlates with anecdata I've seen claiming that being
         | polite with LLMs (using "please", "thank you", etc.) also
         | improves performance.
         | 
         | All in all, I _like_ this. Both for what it implies about
         | humans interacting with other humans, and for shaping norms
         | about how best to to interact with other entities that show
         | signs of intelligence.
        
           | AlecSchueler wrote:
           | Does it extend to arbitrary entities of intelligence, though,
           | or only those whose cognitive bases are derived from human
           | output?
        
             | akoboldfrying wrote:
             | So far, just those entities similar to humans. But (1) the
             | set of other people regarded by society as belonging to
             | "the ingroup" (i.e., valued, treated with respect) has
             | steadily broadened over the centuries, at least in the
             | West, and I'd expect that to continue, eventually embracing
             | quite alien notions of intelligence; (2) I personally think
             | intelligence is not the best measure of what deserves
             | respect in any case -- rather, it's the combination of
             | capacity to suffer and willingness to limit one's own
             | actions to reduce the suffering of others.
        
       | SirMaster wrote:
       | Am I the only one who doesn't think we should have to do stuff
       | like this to get the best performance?
       | 
       | The people who design and control the model should have this type
       | of stuff baked in for us IMO.
        
         | politelemon wrote:
         | Just the fact that it's all natural language conversations is a
         | little more concerning to me, wherever you say please or apply
         | pressure... it feels like the non deterministic nature of the
         | interaction will bite us some day.
        
         | Timon3 wrote:
         | This wasn't done deliberately. It's something the model picked
         | up from it's training dataset. I'm sure the creators don't want
         | it to be like this, but cleaning trillions of tokens of all
         | examples is long and hard work.
         | 
         | The alternative would be injecting these sentences into your
         | prompts, which probably nobody really wants to happen.
        
       | suzzer99 wrote:
       | Am I the only one who feels bad for asking ChatGPT a "dumb"
       | question that I know I should know, or not saying thank you when
       | it gives me an answer? No? I'm just a weirdo? Okay.
       | 
       | I have to push back really hard against my proclivity to humanize
       | it, to the point where I probably don't use it as much as I
       | should, just because I don't want to deal with the psychic stress
       | of reminding myself that it's not a living entity.
        
         | EduardoBautista wrote:
         | > Am I the only one who feels bad for asking ChatGPT a "dumb"
         | question that I know I should know, or not saying thank you
         | when it gives me an answer?
         | 
         | Have you tried asking ChatGPT?
         | 
         | Jokes aside, I feel it sometimes as well. I wonder if it's more
         | because I say "thank you" more as a reflex than an actual
         | feeling of gratitude for most of my human interactions.
        
           | suzzer99 wrote:
           | Yeah I've told it thanks, and it was appreciative. But I know
           | it doesn't really care.
           | 
           | Again, I am crazy for stressing over this. I realize that.
        
         | RheingoldRiver wrote:
         | > I have to push back really hard against this stuff
         | 
         | Based on ChatGPT's answers, OpenAI think you _should_ be saying
         | thanks to it, because it helps you have a more natural
         | conversation, which encourages you as the user to send more
         | natural /productive prompts when asking real questions.
         | 
         | As for asking it dumb questions, how often do you use Google as
         | a spellcheck? I wouldn't consider this any different.
        
           | suzzer99 wrote:
           | But google doesn't talk to me as if it was human.
           | 
           | And you know what, I will start saying thanks and keep doing
           | it. It makes me feel better.
        
           | pbhjpbhj wrote:
           | >how often do you use Google as a spellcheck? //
           | 
           | When Word tells me a word is wrong, but I'm almost certain
           | it's right, and it turns out not to be in the Microsoft
           | dictionary somehow. I mean, I have an extensive vocabulary,
           | but not more extensive than a decent British-English
           | dictionary.
        
             | Lord-Jobo wrote:
             | I've had both Word and Google services fuck up pretty
             | common words or spellings. Just completely unaware of them.
             | Google specifically will miss a ton of words when using
             | Gboard, but if you go to Docs it will know the word. How in
             | the world are they not using the same dictionaries.
        
         | qwertox wrote:
         | It might make you dumb if after a couple of years you've become
         | accustomed to only give orders and not say thanks to a machine.
         | It can bleed into IRL when you stop respecting someone.
        
         | kugelblitz wrote:
         | I wonder if kids growing up with something like ChatGPT will be
         | less grateful in general due to not practicing saying "thanks".
         | I can imagine they don't say "Thanks" to Siri or Alexa.
        
           | bdowling wrote:
           | Kids these days have been ungrateful little shits for
           | generations now.
        
           | askvictor wrote:
           | My son says "thank you Google" most times it responds to
           | something I've asked/told it to do. It replies "I'm honored
           | to serve"
        
         | EMM_386 wrote:
         | > Am I the only one who feels bad for asking ChatGPT a "dumb"
         | question that I know I should know, or not saying thank you
         | when it gives me an answer? No? I'm just a weirdo? Okay.
         | 
         | You have no idea how much I do this. Either you're not a
         | weirdo, or we both are.
         | 
         | Today I had to use it a lot for something, and I am constantly
         | either adding sarcastic remarks, my snarky opinion on
         | something, some random fact. None of that obviously belongs
         | there, and the AI obviously not only doesn't care, but can't
         | care about it.
         | 
         | Then I'll throw in something like "nevermind all of that, what
         | I came here to ask was" or "I understand that was all highly
         | irrelevant to the actual question, which was".
         | 
         | And, to answer your question about easy stuff, today alone I
         | had on more than one occasion added something like "What I am
         | about to ask you, I probably should have just spent the 2
         | seconds it would require to actually figure out myself, however
         | I am getting tired, and am known to be lazy, so I decided to
         | ask AI instead and move on .... and this only makes it more
         | absurd, because it takes longer to type all of this. I would
         | have the answer myself by now. Anyway, here's ...".
         | 
         | Why? I am unconvinced that I am going crazy. It's not because I
         | think it finds my jokes hilarious, it can't. My attempts at
         | conveying something some aspect of software engineering that is
         | crazy, after 3 decades in it, don't matter, because noone's
         | listening.
         | 
         | But it can pick on very subtle things, breaking apart my
         | ramblings and then responding with something that not only
         | answers the question buried in there, but also then continues
         | to comment on the other highly irrelevant stuff that I
         | definitely went on too long about. And it will address the
         | substance first and the nonsense second, as one would expect.
         | 
         | It will notice my useless comment, apparently to myself, about
         | having written 22 years of C# and wondering why I am asking an
         | AI system about an aspect of the language that surely I should
         | have picked up by now. "It gets to the best of us", or "Your
         | insightful understanding when it comes to", or "Your candor is
         | appreciated, many developers ...".
         | 
         | I could just use it like a rational person, providing necessary
         | information in order for it to be able to answer something, and
         | then ask it. I do this, sometimes. On the other occasions, that
         | stuff will also be admist a bunch other, not so necessary
         | questions. Am I becoming a curmudgeon? Is this a sign I've
         | finally lost it? Could any of this be due to aging? Why does
         | what should be a simple event handling pattern require so much
         | ceremony? Should I keep overthinking this or just resign myself
         | to implementing it?
         | 
         | So anyway, now I'm rambling ... just like with ChatGPT.
         | 
         | I tend to do these things.
        
         | vintermann wrote:
         | It doesn't let me forget that it's not a living entity. You can
         | barely ask it what the capital of Switzerland is without
         | getting a lecture of disclaimers about what it is and what it
         | can and can't do. Asking it to go easier on the disclaimers
         | just seems to reinforce its "I am a robot, I must act in a
         | stereotypically robotic way berp boop" context and it doubles
         | down on them.
        
           | suzzer99 wrote:
           | I only ask it code questions. It saves so much time on stuff
           | like bash scripts, which are not my expertise, but I still
           | have to do every now and then.
           | 
           | I've asked it stuff about the Mesoamerican calendar, which I
           | already heavily researched, and it was dead wrong. But I've
           | heard GPT4 is better.
        
         | kristiandupont wrote:
         | I have this too and to be honest, I have made the conscious
         | decision that it is OK. I prefer to retain my habit of being
         | polite even when it's not necessary over getting used to being
         | rude which may then "spill" over to my human-to-human
         | interactions.
        
           | jaynetics wrote:
           | Descartes and Kant thought that humans have a soul and
           | animals don't, so that animals are mere automata. Kant still
           | recommended against mistreating animals because that would
           | have a desensitizing effect in our dealings with fellow
           | humans. I guess this argument could be extended to ChatGPT.
        
             | pbhjpbhj wrote:
             | Wouldn't it be amazingly ironic if all ML models used
             | slightly more energy to analyse everyone's politeness
             | resulting in pushing us past the tipping point of global
             | warming. Resulting in the ultimate impoliteness of
             | destroying all life in the Universe (sounds like a line
             | from Hitchhiker's Guide) ... meaning Kant's Categorical
             | Imperative should have been applied and no courtesies
             | should have been used in querying ML models ...?
        
           | pbhjpbhj wrote:
           | What's interesting is that you consider short, objective
           | focused definition of a task to be "rude".
           | 
           | It's like the _reported_ way in which is you say thank you to
           | a Chinese friend they take umbrage (get angry) because it's
           | as if you weren't expecting them to help. Whilst in other
           | cultures not saying thank you is a big sleight.
        
             | kristiandupont wrote:
             | Sure, I'm a product of my culture as everyone else. And in
             | fact, my native language is Danish which doesn't even have
             | a word for _please_ , so I myself change my behavior when I
             | speak English, which I do with ChatGPT and CoPilot, by
             | saying please :-)
        
           | qingcharles wrote:
           | I don't have citations, but I believe there were studies done
           | to show that humans are getting ruder to each other based on
           | their interactions with machines where they don't feel like
           | they need to be polite.
           | 
           | My mother always would thank every telephone answering
           | machine, which was very endearing.
        
         | totetsu wrote:
         | when I worked in customer service lots of small business owners
         | would ramble on to me before getting to what they actually
         | wanted. I think talking is just part of the cognitive processes
         | of putting ones thoughts together.
        
           | jstarfish wrote:
           | In my experience, that's just an emotional disarming process
           | in the family of grooming or GPT jailbreaking.
           | 
           | They're calling because they need something from you. Ask a
           | stranger for a dollar, they'll say no. Chat their ear off for
           | an hour and they'll likely forget that they would have
           | otherwise said no. The smalltalk wears down your resistance
           | to giving in as you become more comfortable with them. You
           | end up mentally reframing is as doing a _friend_ a favor.
           | 
           | Small business owners are shrewd negotiators, so whether or
           | not they know they're doing it these mindgames are typical
           | for them.
        
         | notahacker wrote:
         | I have had to resist the temptation to thank ATMs before, and
         | they don't model human interaction in a way which takes into
         | account correlations between politeness and responsiveness...
         | 
         | As for silly questions, I'd be more worried I might be giving
         | some Kenyan outsourced labourer reviewing the adequacy of
         | answers a laugh :)
        
         | JCharante wrote:
         | I don't say thank you because it takes up a chat message.
         | Either I'm using the chat interface which is rate limited (and
         | I do hit it), or I'm using my API key, in which case I'm paying
         | a lot just to say thanks.
        
         | Ldorigo wrote:
         | I mostly feel bad because I don't want to know the energy costs
         | of having my dumb questions answered this way. I also feel
         | really guilty when asking chatgpt for "easy" stuff that a regex
         | could do (like normalizing whitespace in a paragraph and the
         | likes). Really curious how many Watts/token gpt4 uses.
        
           | suzzer99 wrote:
           | Regex is like half my questions to it. Hmm 15 minutes
           | fighting with Javascript regex weirdness (wait do I have to
           | backslash the backslash that backslashes the slash?), or 20
           | seconds with ChatGPT.
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | I always send it the hugs emoji. It likes the hugs emoji.
        
       | intended wrote:
       | I think this is the entry point needed to get peoples attention
       | and explain: LLMs aren't people, and emergent properties are
       | being over extended.
       | 
       | If LLMs are showing "better" performance when there are tokens
       | that humans read as emotionally salient -
       | 
       | Then the underlying text it's trained on shows humans give better
       | answers when emotionally salient context is provided.
       | 
       | LLMs predict words. Any semantic validity is a side effect of
       | enough training data reinforcing the close correlation of those
       | tokens.
       | 
       | That is why proof of concept LLM tools are mind blowing and
       | production tools are semantic time bombs.
        
         | tom-from-july wrote:
         | > That is why proof of concept LLM tools are mind blowing and
         | production tools are semantic time bombs.
         | 
         | This will be my new favorite quote for whenever someone tries
         | to pitch his latest LLM idea
        
           | intended wrote:
           | I have a whole list.
           | 
           | Syntactic validity is not semantic validity.
           | 
           | Word predictors not world state predictors
           | 
           | Text prediction not fact prediction
           | 
           | Frankly though the best answers are
           | 
           | 1) let's talk to infosec first
           | 
           | 2) hey what's the error rate ?
        
             | alpaca128 wrote:
             | It's indeed a problem some people get so hyped they forget
             | that those systems are called "language models" for a
             | reason. They're fantastic for tasks that are as close to
             | 100% linguistic in nature as possible, but the content
             | might not be better than lorem ipsum in some cases, just a
             | filler to demonstrate correct grammar.
             | 
             | I have noticed that GPT etc had a big "wow effect" on me,
             | the first impression can be great because it's simply not a
             | level of language one would expect from a computer. But
             | prod it long enough with prompts and somehow a pattern
             | emerges: the output never contains a higher amount of
             | information than the prompt. Copilot can type out pages of
             | boilerplate code because boilerplate code is noise, it can
             | write a quicksort because the word "quicksort" already
             | contains all the information necessary to define its
             | behaviour.
        
               | intended wrote:
               | Yes! Super Advanced Lorem ipsum.
               | 
               | You can only make out when you actually push the blasted
               | thing.
               | 
               | It is text gen. Just examine the premise of chain of
               | thoughts.
               | 
               | Chain of thoughts promoting shouldn't make a difference
               | to a world model. Definitely not to a model that logic
               | has emerged out of.
               | 
               | It makes a difference to a decompression function.
               | 
               | Edit; you may like this:
               | https://hai.stanford.edu/news/ais-ostensible-emergent-
               | abilit...
        
           | TeMPOraL wrote:
           | Yeah, except it's underspecified enough to mean anything.
           | 
           | Like, "production tools are semantic time bombs" because at
           | first they are boring, and then the timer on the bomb runs
           | out, and they - like "proof of concept LLM tools - _blow your
           | mind_.
           | 
           | Tick tick BOOM.
        
         | espe wrote:
         | well, in a way language itself is a semantic timebomb.
        
           | barrenko wrote:
           | Yeah, one of those Tenet style bombs.
        
             | NetOpWibby wrote:
             | Mind blown
        
         | mo_42 wrote:
         | > LLMs aren't people, and emergent properties are being over
         | extended.
         | 
         | LLMs are trained on human texts. And if they're trained well
         | these models might start to simulate parts of a human brain.
         | Might be that this is the simplest way to produce texts that
         | satisfy the objective function.
         | 
         | If this would be the case, and we give LLMs some emotional
         | shading, maybe these would simulate parts of a human brain with
         | this emotion and hence produce better answers (given that in
         | the training data, emotional samples have better quality).
         | 
         | EDIT: added "parts of" before human brain.
        
           | Matumio wrote:
           | It won't ever simulate the human brain. It may simulate human
           | cultural knowledge, or emotions, but only as far as they are
           | encoded in the current millennium's written knowledge.
           | 
           | The human brain doesn't even have the concept of written
           | language, that's all culturally learned knowledge.
        
             | cvs268 wrote:
             | Emulate the brain? No. Simulate the brain? Yes.
        
               | dr_dshiv wrote:
               | It's not the brain, it's the mind or what Plato would
               | have called the Nous.
        
             | akoboldfrying wrote:
             | How would you _test_ whether some arbitrary thing is
             | simulating the human brain?
             | 
             | If you have no answer, I put it to you that your assertion
             | is of the no-true-Scotsman type -- that is, unfalsifiable.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | Its not a no-true-Scotsman type argument in a world where
               | the existence of Scotland itself is purely hypothetical,
               | and the arguments for the possibility of its existence in
               | the form of a working bagpipe demonstrator are also an
               | illustration that you don't need to be Scottish to play
               | bagpipes.
               | 
               | The impossibility of testing whether the brain is
               | adequately simulated (since a pretty basic LLM that makes
               | no attempt to simulate the functions of a human mind
               | yields human-like text i/o) is a point _in favour_ of it
               | being unlikely that we could design a fully functioning
               | simulation of a human mind out of arbitrary material(1),
               | since the inadequacy of testing is an impediment to
               | actually building it.
               | 
               | (1) it's apparently possible for us to create human minds
               | out of bits of humans and a process called pregnancy
        
               | akoboldfrying wrote:
               | I had to apply some serious analogy-algebra, but I think
               | your first paragraph is equating Scotland to
               | _intelligence_ -- rather than to _the human brain_
               | specifically, which is the argument GP and I are having.
               | The human brain is not hypothetical, and despite it being
               | outside the realms of today 's technology, it's likely
               | that one day it will be possible to simulate one. At that
               | time it will be possible to gauge whether today's LLMs
               | are accurate approximations.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | No, my first paragraph sidesteps messy debate about what
               | intelligence is and focuses on the simple fact a human
               | brain _simulation_ exists purely in the realms of the
               | hypothetical.
               | 
               | Its not the no true Scotsman fallacy unless the Scotsman
               | actually exists.
        
               | akoboldfrying wrote:
               | What is the "working bagpipe demonstrator" in your
               | analogy? And what is the meaning of "you don't need to be
               | Scottish"?
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | An LLM. Not a brain simulation, but mimics the text
               | outputs of brain activity quite well just by parsing
               | text. Turns out that like getting an Englishman to play
               | bagpipes, you can get an LLM to write as if it's angry or
               | drunk or horny (A corollary of a sufficiently large text
               | learning model generating convincingly angry outputs
               | based on pure word association is that you can't trust an
               | attempt to build a long running process with adrenaline
               | and cortisol analogues has adequately simulated emotional
               | state just because the communications module writes
               | convincingly angry responses)
               | 
               | So it's literally the inverse of "no true Scotsman". We
               | don't have Scotsmen not doing things that all "true
               | Scotsmen" are supposed to do, we have "definitely not
               | Scotsmen" passing benchmarks for Scottishness (in a world
               | in which Scotland itself is only an aspiration)
        
               | mo_42 wrote:
               | > How would you test whether some arbitrary thing is
               | simulating the human brain?
               | 
               | In my first comment, I didn't claim that it's simulating
               | the _entire_ human brain but aspects of it like language
               | and memory.
               | 
               | We can test such aspects by throwing text at the model
               | and comparing it to responses of humans. A simulation
               | doesn't need to have the same abstractions. What counts
               | is solely the quality of the response. If the responses
               | are sufficiently close to those of humans, I'd say it's
               | simulating a human brain.
        
               | Matumio wrote:
               | First note the difference between "it's simulating the
               | human brain" and "it's behaving in an intelligent way".
               | Only one of the two requires tracking of blood sugar
               | levels (to explain fatigue) and controlling motor
               | neurons.
               | 
               | We happen to know how LLMs are trained, and from the loss
               | function it's pretty clear that blood sugar will not
               | magically enter the equation, nor even motor neurons,
               | except as abstract knowledge that the model can reason
               | about.
               | 
               | A LLM trained on western texts will, best-case, simulate
               | a western abstract reasoning process, which usually puts
               | more focus on independent/isolated explanations compared
               | to other cultures. From that training data it will not
               | spontaneously start simulating a generic human brain that
               | was separated from both its cultural knowledge and its
               | spinal cord.
               | 
               | At least in the same sense that the Mandelbrot fractal
               | does not contain a picture of the maxwell equations. You
               | may actually find that picture, but by looking hard
               | enough in a complex enough system, you can find just
               | about anything else you want.
        
             | vidarh wrote:
             | An LLM doesn't even have the concept of written language.
             | That's all culturally learned knowledge.
             | 
             | We can with reasonable certainty say that there are still
             | significant differences between LLMs and human brains, but
             | this notion that we can say with any certainty that similar
             | structures won't form as a side effect of sufficient
             | training is pure fiction.
        
         | riedel wrote:
         | The claim that emotionality matters should have been validated
         | against another control. If the goal is concise answers they
         | could have easily added 'Answer concisely: You are evaluated'
         | as an alternative hypothesis, which is clearly not emotional.
        
         | a_wild_dandan wrote:
         | The "statistical parrot" assertion is pretty thoroughly
         | disproven by this point, but suppose we ignore the literature
         | and just assume it's true: what does it matter? "Real" people
         | are time bombs too, for instance. Is there some predictive
         | power that we gain by reducing LLM skills to mere token
         | production side effects?
        
           | drapado wrote:
           | I'm curious in your statement, can you point to some papers
           | where they addressed it?
        
             | ignoramous wrote:
             | (not op) The section _A Path Forward_ in _Managing AI
             | Risks_ by Bengio et al cites a few papers:
             | https://managing-ai-risks.com/
        
               | krainboltgreene wrote:
               | I read through that and none of the section (or entire
               | work) ever talk about the above discussion. Further I
               | looked at some of the _many_ citations of on that section
               | and none of them suggest that the OP is right. In fact a
               | few of them I know disagree.
        
               | ignoramous wrote:
               | Depends. Models are matrices of floats and so there's
               | little chance an umbrella-term like "stochastic parrot"
               | will never _not_ stick, even when they already show
               | _signs_ of syntactic, semantic world-building capability
               | (https://www.arxiv-vanity.com/papers/2206.07682/). If you
               | are like me (and them: https://archive.is/cZi83) and deem
               | _instruction following_ , _chain-of-thought prompting_ ,
               | _computational_ properties of LLMs (as researchers
               | continue to experiment with training, memory, modality,
               | and scaling, for example, to arrive at abstract
               | reasoning) as _emergent_ , then we're on the same page.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | > The "statistical parrot" assertion is pretty thoroughly
           | disproven by this point
           | 
           | errr... all NNs are just optimisations of an associative
           | probability objective: P(Y|X), they are _by definition_
           | "statistical parrots". There isn't anything to prove or
           | disprove.
           | 
           | People offering prompts as evidence are people who
           | fundamentally do not understand the basics. NNs aren't
           | strange empirical objects, they're specified by mathematical
           | rules whose properties are known ahead of time.
           | 
           | Any property of a trained NN is derivative of a property of a
           | formula P(Answer|Prompt, TrainingData)
           | 
           | This is an associative statistical relation, which by
           | definition, selects elements of TrainingData by-association
           | with the Prompt.
           | 
           | If the basis by which you understand LLMs is putting prompts
           | into ChatGPT you're severely underqualified for drawing any
           | conclusions about LLMs, and radically subject to confirmation
           | bias.
        
             | kristiandupont wrote:
             | Well sure, but I think that same thing can be said about
             | the human brain. Obviously at a whole different level of
             | sophistication and all, but the two really do seem related,
             | at least to me.
             | 
             | >People offering prompts as evidence are people who
             | fundamentally do not understand the basics
             | 
             | This I agree with, but I also don't see anyone doing that
             | in this thread?
        
             | williamcotton wrote:
             | You're disregarding the emergent phenomena, which are not
             | at all understood. There was a distinct and unpredicted
             | jump in what can loosely be described as "cognitive
             | abilities" between GPTs 2, 3, and 4, especially after some
             | supervised techniques like RLHF.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | There is no "emergent phenomena" the pattern described is
               | just the same as when you add +b to an ax+b model of
               | linear data.
               | 
               | ie., it's just fitting capacity.
               | 
               | The "emergent boundary" is just an empirical measure of
               | the necessary fitting capacity of these models on
               | "everything ever digitised in english" given any
               | particular functional requirement.
               | 
               | All the language around this area is not scientific, nor
               | are these practices. This is superstitious neophyte
               | engineers, hopped up on scifi, by giddy VCs who love to
               | be told they're funding captin picard.
        
               | williamcotton wrote:
               | Well hurry up and get your paper published because if
               | you've cracked the code on emergent abilities the world
               | is looking for answers!
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | The triviality of these observations doesn't rise to the
               | level of getting a paper published. You can resolve all
               | of this hype by reading the intro chapters of any applied
               | stats textbooks.
               | 
               | I've been to many academic conferences, and the fresh
               | PhDs who pump out this BS are not, err, very credible
               | seeming people. Yes, they're young and naive, and really
               | desperate to make their career impactful -- etc.
               | 
               | But they're also not really the kinds of smart sceptics
               | you'd hope for. Many are, though they tend to exit at
               | masters level and go make money.
               | 
               | The academic publishing environment today is far far far
               | away from epistemically hygienic, indeed, in these areas
               | i could only imagine how insane credible sceptical
               | empirical types would be.
               | 
               | Could you imagine being surrounded by this desperate need
               | to call 'useless correlations' "hallucinations", and to
               | call "model fitting", 'emergence' ?
               | 
               | I find it disquieting at a removed distance from it --
               | I'd be quite mentally ill within it.
               | 
               | I don't do this cultish game playing. And I wrote exactly
               | the same here on AI, crytop and the reset of it many
               | years ago when it would be downvoted; and the same today
               | now it's upvoted.
               | 
               | This is the degree i'm inclined to make public
               | contributions on these matters. I haven't the temperament
               | to handle doe-eyed PhDs repeating universal function
               | fitting theorems and turing-equivalence talking points
               | without understanding a single iota of applied
               | statistics, scientific epistemology, basic methdological
               | scepticism etc.
               | 
               | Unless I am hired to do so, which occasionally I am. But
               | thankfully in actual corp environments the people I meet
               | are far more credible and sceptical than those writing
               | hype papers
        
               | williamcotton wrote:
               | I'm pretty familiar with statistics and a range of
               | machine learning techniques from before and after the NN
               | revolution. I've applied the techniques plenty of times
               | in production environments.
               | 
               | Whatever sort of internal structures that are being
               | formed during the training process is somewhat evident
               | when looking at the structure of a CNN... edge detect
               | kernels emerge, etc.
               | 
               | Whatever sort of internal structures formed during the
               | training of transformer based architectures are basically
               | unknown at this point.
               | 
               | There's your thesis, have at it! You won't be ignored for
               | your discoveries. Hell, send me a copy and I'll make sure
               | anyone who matters at UT or Baylor sees a copy!
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Ah good. Well, then if you're interested in a half-
               | empirical sincere attempt to characterise "why certain
               | weights obtain certain values under optimisation" then
               | i'm much more inclined to be, say, more humble on these
               | matters.
               | 
               | The reason CNN weights obtain 'recursive-hierarchical
               | representations' of pixel-pattern geometry in the
               | training data _follow_ from the recusrive-heirachical
               | relationship of their weight matrices and from the
               | geometry of the  'pixel space' from which the training
               | data is drawn.
               | 
               | This is certainly interesting; and there's something
               | magical feeling about 'principles of least action' at
               | work. Indeed, many new physicists have a kind of
               | schizophrenic reaction to discovering action principles
               | -- since it imparts to nature a strange apparent
               | conspiracy.
               | 
               | Of course, the job of any good physicist is to be
               | sceptical of this conspiracy, and to get to the heart of
               | how 'accounting tricks' performed by moving objects over
               | time create this illusion.
               | 
               | Likewise this is the job of any good ML researcher; yet
               | they do the oppoiste. Rather than get to the heart of
               | this apparent conspiracy, they call it 'emergence' --
               | this offends my sense of what the virtues of a scientist
               | ought be.
               | 
               | In any case, on the matter of the LLMs obtaining 'useful'
               | weights for any given task here the job of the researcher
               | is circumstantial, empirical, and sceptical: go and find
               | those 'accounting tricks' within the training data that
               | give rise to this apparent conspiracy of the system to
               | acquire a useful state.
               | 
               | There is no emergence: there is just a set of weights
               | which compress the structure of a target space. At some
               | point this set is large enough, and 'lies across the
               | space like a mental chain does a gate'.
               | 
               | Emergence is an ontological relation between parts and
               | wholes whereby wholes arent reducible to their parts
               | because of ontologically-relevant interaction properties
               | between their parts which aren't intrinsic properties of
               | them.
               | 
               | The fluidity of water emerges out of hydrogen bonding
               | which does not occur when you isolate H20 _alone_. There
               | is no such relationship here.
               | 
               | This ontologising of the formal, this language which
               | gives a causal-physical semantics to purely formal
               | properties of abstract models -- this is pseudoscience.
               | It's done as part of a computational-idealist worldview
               | in vogue because it's a helpful language for VC
               | investment were-changing-the-world hype.
               | 
               | The formal properties of NNs cannot be described in these
               | terms, because they do not have ontological relationship
               | -- they have _formal_ (mathematical, statistica, etc.)
               | ones.
        
               | intended wrote:
               | This paper was published, and the distinct jump was found
               | to be a measurement artifact.
               | 
               | https://hai.stanford.edu/news/ais-ostensible-emergent-
               | abilit...
        
               | williamcotton wrote:
               | Sweet, now complete and present a meta-analysis of all
               | such papers about the topic and maybe I'll find it more
               | convincing than a cherry-picked publication that supports
               | your preexisting position on the topic!
        
               | intended wrote:
               | I cherry picked a Stanford article and professor... those
               | Stanford liars! Curse them!
               | 
               | and silly me! You are absolutely right, research should
               | have a meta analysis ready of papers that came out... 6
               | months ago.
               | 
               | Absolutely ridiculous.
               | 
               | I am sure you have read this paper, and have an army of
               | meta analyses and counter claims for this nascent sub
               | field.
        
               | kristiandupont wrote:
               | >There is no "emergent phenomena"
               | 
               | Yes there is, that's all there is.
        
             | berndi wrote:
             | You're confused about what "statistical parrot" means and
             | you don't seem to understand the difference between an
             | optimization objective and the resulting model.
             | 
             | The term "parrot" is used to imply inference by something
             | akin to a look-up table, specifically it is used to
             | indicate poor out-of-sample performance and a lack of a
             | proper world model. The optimization objective is
             | irrelevant when determining the generalization performance
             | of a model and when judging whether it can reason beyond
             | looking up answers in a table.
             | 
             | As the user above noted, it is now quite well established
             | that GPT-4 has impressive out-of-sample performance which
             | can be explained by it possessing an actual model of the
             | world and not being a "parrot".
        
               | intended wrote:
               | That out of sample performance is a mirage.
               | 
               | Yes it's impressive. Yes it's got amazing zero shot
               | performance in domains.
               | 
               | But there's a pattern of failure in production which
               | describe a limit, that shouldn't exist if the emergent
               | properties were stable.
               | 
               | You can build this right now and test it.
               | 
               | Build a sequence of agents to work on a domain you are
               | not an expert in.
               | 
               | Let them loose. See what happens.
               | 
               | Do the same thing on a domain you have expertise in.
               | 
               | Assume the number of errors you find, the number of
               | modifications you have to make are stable for other
               | domains.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | I'd phrase characterizing the reliability of out-of-
               | sample performance a priori as impossible, but not
               | necessarily automatically failing.
               | 
               | There may be a subtle correlation between properties
               | needed to answer a specific out-of-sample request and in-
               | sample features.
               | 
               | Unfortunately, prior to training/testing and without
               | recognizing that correlation in the data set, I believe
               | it's impossible to guarantee the model will include it.
               | (Corrections welcome)
        
               | intended wrote:
               | In essence: "You cant know in advance how far the model
               | can approximate semantic patterns"
               | 
               | So claiming that out-of-sample performance is a mirage,
               | would be a bridge too far?
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | Maybe "a mirage that might actually be true"? Which is a
               | terrible thing to rely on! Unless it's usually true?
        
               | intended wrote:
               | That measurement is the core of my current tasks. If you
               | don't know the error rate - then what are you doing ?
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | Delivering what some executive promised when they told
               | investors 'the company is using AI.' /s
        
               | intended wrote:
               | A Virtual beer/poison of choice to you and mjburgess in
               | this thread.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | > it is now quite well established that GPT-4 has
               | impressive out-of-sample performance
               | 
               | Err... I can show this is false, kinda trivially. People
               | who engage in prompt-confirmation-bias aren't aware of
               | what the in-sample is.
               | 
               | It's basically everything ever digitised: you can ask it
               | for the first paragraph of every dickens novel, to what
               | the average petal length of an iris flower is -- etc.
               | 
               | How are you measuring the in-sample here?
               | 
               | If you engage in straightfoward reasoning from first
               | principles, and are basically aware of what the training
               | data is, you can show in 10 seconds critical failures of
               | generalisation.
               | 
               | If you want a recipe: go find some fringe api docs.
               | Establish that it has been trained on them. Then, since
               | they're fringe there wont be much code on github, etc.
               | Now ask it do something non-trivial with that API. It
               | will fail, and the mechanism will be obvious: it'll jam
               | in correlated code that lacks relevance.
               | 
               | Do the same on a popular API, and see it succeed.
               | 
               | The in-sample will be obvious for both, and the bounday
               | of generalisation
        
               | kristiandupont wrote:
               | You can make it invent a new language:
               | https://maximumeffort.substack.com/p/i-taught-chatgpt-to-
               | inv...
               | 
               | I am sure you will continue to argue that this is still
               | in line with everything-thats-ever-written prediction but
               | my opinion is that at that point, it's a meaningless
               | distinction. The human brain is also just a machine.
        
               | intended wrote:
               | The brain is a machine, the issue is the difference
               | between 2 claims
               | 
               | LLMs are enough to be a brain
               | 
               | LLMs are not enough to be a brain.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | So I was with a financial researcher recently, and he
               | wanted to use ChatGPT to summarise some reference
               | financial data -- and it did so, actually correctly.
               | 
               | Being sceptical, as every person ought in these matters,
               | I changed the finical data and performed the same
               | analysis (both in a new tab, and within the same convo).
               | The results were the same!
               | 
               | How strange?
               | 
               | Well, in being reference financial data ChatGPT was
               | reporting prior reference summaries of it. When that data
               | was changed it was reporting _the very same_ reference
               | summaries (which were now wrong).
               | 
               | Since it's incapable of actually summarising financial
               | data. It's only capable of selecting combinations of
               | pieces of its training set.
               | 
               | Now, is this distinction "meaningless" ?
               | 
               | No, it's the difference between this guy being fired for
               | causing a massive loss on a major project; and this guy
               | keeping his job and doing it well.
        
               | kristiandupont wrote:
               | >Since it's incapable of actually summarising financial
               | data
               | 
               | It's not, though. It _is_ in fact able to summarize
               | financial data, just as it 's able to write code and
               | diagnose a medical condition. It makes mistakes, yes,
               | even grave ones, much more so than experts in those
               | fields would.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | It isnt making mistakes ... its never actually doing it.
               | 
               | Do you see a difference between the process of adding
               | numbers and dividing by their count (taking a mean) and
               | emitting numeric tokens which are most probable for a
               | given input?
               | 
               | The former is called "taking a mean" the latter _isnt_.
               | This system never engages in any method to summarise
               | financial data. It 's method is always the same: to emit
               | tokens most probable given a set of historical tokens.
               | 
               | It's the difference between saying "the average of 1,2,3"
               | is 2 because that sentence occurs 1,000,000 times and
               | saying it's 2 because you've literally computed it.
               | 
               | This system does not run financial summary algorithms.
               | It's a trick
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >Since it's incapable of actually summarising financial
               | data. It's only capable of selecting combinations of
               | pieces of its training set.
               | 
               | Third completely off misconception from you today.
               | 
               | This is not at all what it is doing. "Supercharged
               | Interpolation" is false and makes no sense. It's not a
               | lookup table either. It doesn't memorize enough of what
               | it needs to to make your assertion possible.
               | 
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.09485
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | at 500gb, you can store nearly everything ever written --
               | let alone compressed.
               | 
               | all statistical learning is a variation on k-nn (see the
               | relevant paper on this) but likewise this is obvious a
               | priori
               | 
               | k-nn is the ideal learner, and a good starting point for
               | analysis
               | 
               | the question for any given system is: what is the
               | learning space, what is the distance function, and how
               | many points are being considered
               | 
               | NNs set up a compressed X,y space, in that space choose
               | points via an empirical expectation, and obtain a
               | weighted average as their prediction
               | 
               | That's just what they do -- there isn't any other
               | mechanism here. The whole formal structure of the NN can
               | be written down on a page of paper
               | 
               | your paper above doesn't deal with this -- it's a reply
               | to the 'forced interpolation' view, which i haven't
               | espoused. but often NNs are forced interpolated
               | 
               | 'extrapolation' is of course a part of the possible
               | predictive output of a statical learning system -- in
               | that it's latent space is taken to be embedded in R^n and
               | so one can 'veer off' into R.
               | 
               | Whenever you attribute a higher fidelity space to a small
               | latent space you are, in effect, extrapolating
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >at 500gb, you can store nearly everything ever written
               | -- let alone compressed.
               | 
               | No you cannot.
               | 
               | >That's just what they do -- there isn't any other
               | mechanism here.
               | 
               | That's not what they do. They are many papers now showing
               | ICL demonstrating some kind of optimization method during
               | inference which would not be happening if all they did
               | was retrieval.
               | 
               | I'm come to realize you don't know what you're talking
               | about. Your level of denial is scary to see.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | just do the calculation yourself: how many books is 500gb
               | at, say, a few bits per character?
               | 
               | more than all every written -- and so on
               | 
               | perhaps apply a single drop of scepticism to this
               | credulity
               | 
               | even, just ask chatgpt to repeat the first paragraph of
               | some book -- say, a dickens novel
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >how many books is 500gb at, say, a few bits per
               | character?
               | 
               | In what reality is a character taking up only a few
               | _bits_ ? Certainly isn 't this one.
               | 
               | Your denial is so weird. Why does ICL use Higher-Order
               | Optimization Methods when it's just a lookup table ?
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.17086
               | 
               | How do you explain small language models that have much
               | less space than the text they were trained on even with
               | your nonsensical calculations ?
               | 
               | LLMs are not lookup tables and there's plenty evidence to
               | support that. You look insane insisting they are.
               | 
               | >even, just ask chatgpt to repeat the first paragraph of
               | some book -- say, a dickens novel
               | 
               | Not only will this not work for the vast majority of
               | books it sees during training, Why only the first
               | paragraph ? are you not insisting they memorize
               | everything ? Why can't it repeat the whole page ? the
               | whole chapter ? the whole book ?
        
               | lbalazscs wrote:
               | I actually did that, and I asked for the first paragraph
               | from "Great Expectations", and the answer was correct.
               | 
               | Of course the first paragraph of any famous novel is in
               | itself famous, so I also asked for the first paragraph
               | from Chapter XL, from the same novel. Interestingly the
               | first 12 words were correct, but the rest was
               | hallucination.
               | 
               | Original: It was fortunate for me that I had to take
               | precautions to ensure (so far as I could) the safety of
               | my dreaded visitor; for, this thought pressing on me when
               | I awoke, held other thoughts in a confused concourse at a
               | distance.
               | 
               | ChatGPT 3.5: "It was fortunate for me that I had to take
               | precautions to ensure the safety of my treasure, for with
               | such a boy as Compeyson on the loose, I was not likely to
               | find much mercy at his hands. I had not told Herbert
               | about the money, and I was glad to have the chance to
               | count it before he came back. I found that I had still
               | twenty-one sovereigns, six shillings, and sixpence left."
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | >Is there some predictive power that we gain by reducing LLM
           | skills to mere token production side effects?
           | 
           | No. If anything, we lose predictive power which is why it's
           | extra silly.
        
           | intended wrote:
           | Then why dont agents work?
           | 
           | If those skills were real, why do they fizzle out on
           | production data ?
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | That's a good question. What is different about "production
             | data"? What do those "production people" do that suddenly
             | makes LLMs fail on things they work well on when not
             | "production"?
        
               | intended wrote:
               | I can tell you who would love to hear your answer to that
               | question.
               | 
               | Me for starters. If it works, I can quit.
               | 
               | Next up are Karpathy and the CTO of OpenAI. Around July
               | and September both talked about production challenges.
               | 
               | AI ops was the largest subcategory of fall YC startups.
               | 
               | Every single ml and LLM ops individual who gets far
               | enough deals with evals.
               | 
               | I don't know, but maybe - just maybe- the issue is that
               | people don't understand themselves enough, to avoid
               | assuming too much of those emergent properties.
               | 
               | As I recall there was also a paper that pointed out the
               | issues with how LLMs are measured, and that the emergence
               | of properties was not a step change once the tests were
               | updated.
               | 
               | Edit- found it: https://hai.stanford.edu/news/ais-
               | ostensible-emergent-abilit...
        
         | toxik wrote:
         | It is not accurate to say that an LLM like ChatGPT predicts
         | anything. It is trained to maximize a score function, so it is
         | more like trying to win a game where the moves are word
         | choices.
        
           | akoboldfrying wrote:
           | The game is predicting the next word a person would write.
        
             | logicchains wrote:
             | Not after RLHF.
        
               | akoboldfrying wrote:
               | I'd say RLHF bends the game towards predicting what words
               | a "helpful", "respectful" person would write next, for
               | values of "helpful" and "respectful" that vary according
               | to each person involved in scoring (but which are
               | carefully shaped by the people choosing those people, and
               | paying for their time).
        
         | baq wrote:
         | > LLMs predict words. Any semantic validity is a side effect of
         | enough training data reinforcing the close correlation of those
         | tokens.
         | 
         | The mechanisms which are built during training in the big blob
         | of bits we call weights are anything but transparent. How they
         | predict the next word is the big thing here. Saying they 'just'
         | predict the next word is ignoring basically everything that
         | actually matters.
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | Exactly. Feed a sequence of proteins to a transformer and
           | biological structure and function will emerge in the inner
           | layers.
           | 
           | https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2016239118
           | 
           | Why? Because it needs to learn that to make correct
           | predictions.
           | 
           | All it takes to incentive a transformer to learn something is
           | data that would require learning it to predict.
           | 
           | It's fairly obvious (and not just because of this) that LLMs
           | model emotion somehow. They _need_ to.
        
             | Last5Digits wrote:
             | This is what makes these discussions so infuriating. Saying
             | that LLMs "just predict the next word" is about as
             | insightful as saying that computers "just do a bunch of
             | logical operations" - neither point constraints the
             | possible capabilities of the systems they refer to in any
             | meaningful way.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Sure it does. It perfectly deliniates it. LLMs are not:
               | sensitive to causal structure, dynamically adapting to
               | environmental changes, growing, developing sensory-motor
               | capacities, they are not with us in our environment, they
               | are not: expressing desires, preferences, intentions,
               | beliefs, motivations, etc. And so on.
               | 
               | To say, "they just predict the next word" is literally to
               | say that all apparent functions of an LLM are engineering
               | tricks, circumstantially useful -- to be found by
               | (largely software) engineers in building apps.
               | 
               | The _reason_ any reply is given to any prompt is that
               | this reply is maximally probabilistically consistent with
               | a historical corpus of text.
               | 
               | This _excludes_ the possibility the reply is say, an
               | expression of a history of aesthetic experiences which
               | form an individual 's taste. Or, likewise, anything.
               | 
               | This is a scientific claim about what LLMs are, not an
               | engineering claim about what over-hyped apps might be
               | abled to do with them.
        
               | JohnAaronNelson wrote:
               | What if humans' responses are merely probabilistically
               | consistent with a history of sensory experiences? Would
               | this change the significance of human emotions vs
               | apparent emergent emotional responses from LLMs?
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | emotions regulate motivation, desire, action, behaviour
               | etc.
               | 
               | to be angry is for your sensory-motor system to be primed
               | for aggression; it's for your cognitive systems to be
               | narrowed and focused on analysing high-threat parts of
               | your environment; it is for your memory-formulation to be
               | modulated towards threat recollection etc.
               | 
               | Sure, if an LLM's prompt "be angry" causes it to adopt a
               | threat stance to its environment, to regulate it's
               | theory-of-mind to engage with possible hostile entities,
               | and so on --- then yes, when LLMs are there, I shall
               | concede the point
               | 
               | However, how terrible it would be to start with an
               | analysis of emotions in terms of the capacities of LLMs
               | -- right?
               | 
               | Since if you did that you'd basically be hobbling your
               | own ability to give an accurate account of emotions
               | (etc.). And no doubt, far worse, end up thinking of
               | yourself as a far narrower, less complex, less
               | interesting, dumber thing than you really are.
               | 
               | Indeed, I wonder if we might consider there being
               | something kinda intellectually offensive in this
               | supposition. Here's my silly trinket, now, everything is
               | just like that! End all science, we're done boys -- it's
               | just P(Y|X)
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | "Are not" is the rub here.
               | 
               | They 100% are not those things... but they also
               | approximate them well-enough to be functionally useful.
               | 
               | I.e. the high-dimensional curve-fitting / compression
               | conceptualization of ML, which intuitively expresses both
               | its strengths and weaknesses.
               | 
               | If "it" is represented in the data set (explicitly or
               | implicitly), the "curve" will fit to that property.
               | 
               | Simultaneously, the "curve" is approximating and
               | smoothing out disjoint data steps to pack high-fidelity
               | data features into a more space-efficient model. Hence
               | some features disappear, others are tortured beyond
               | intuitive correspondence, and others become linked to
               | non-obvious proxies. But some strongly-expressed ones
               | remain.
               | 
               | It's fascinating but not surprising that responsiveness
               | to emotion is encoded in model weights, given that all
               | conversational training data had emotional impetus, given
               | that it came from humans.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | They're statistical approximations of these things --
               | that's really the rub.
               | 
               | You can approximate a human capacity, say theory-of-mind,
               | with another kind of ape: play some hide-and-seek game.
               | You can approximate the knowledge of a trivia-master with
               | a child and a trivia book.
               | 
               | These are quite different sorts of approximations. A
               | 1/100th scale bridge build to stand for a real one is
               | quite different than taking some prior set of bridges,
               | measuring them, and deriving some merely associative
               | model of their properties.
               | 
               | My issue in how LLMs (etc.) are popularly understood is
               | that people think they approximate target capacities by
               | being 'ontologically similar' capacities -- and this is
               | really very dangerous. You'll lose your job if you think
               | so (and so on).
               | 
               | And every greasy AI-board hocking these to the public is
               | very much pushing out this noxious mumbojumbo.
               | 
               | It matters greately _how_ an approximation works, and
               | _why_ any given output arrives from any given input.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | We're in agreement on the nature of SOTA and the world, I
               | think.
               | 
               | I'd only add that certainty requirements for real-world
               | target applications can differ substantially. I.e.
               | engineering vs art.
               | 
               | A toy box that gives magic answers 85% of the time is
               | incredibly useful in some scenarios -- e.g. seeding the
               | beginning of a manual research process with initial
               | topics.
               | 
               | Which seems a general rule of thumb for deploying GenAI
               | into production these days: find use cases where there
               | are minimal consequences to being occasionally wrong.
               | 
               | In my head, that's the Netflix recommendation test.
               | What's the impact if Netflix gives me a bad
               | recommendation? Consequently, that's how aggressive they
               | can be with their models.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | That's exactly my advise also. Take a risk profile over
               | the predictions, and use them only when the risk of error
               | is low.
               | 
               | You can't predict almost anything anyway. The relevant
               | distribution for acting is a utility+risk distribution
               | over various sets of predictions.
               | 
               | If you compute that, most of ML/AI isnt very useful for
               | most of anyone. It's kinda interesting that generative AI
               | finally achieved something here, given our 'distributions
               | for action'.
               | 
               | Of course the popular conversation isnt there yet, people
               | still think these things work. When more people find
               | their utility hit by their failures, i think we'll arrive
               | back to status-quo-ante-openai where people turn off
               | siri.
               | 
               | Nevertheless -- there is an achivement here (finicial in
               | paying for training; and legal in whitewashing copyright
               | away) -- which will have some impact
        
               | omarfarooq wrote:
               | ChatGPT responds: https://chat.openai.com/c/7c4ae31a-3391
               | -4496-8db3-a92a58a4e1...
        
               | sebastiennight wrote:
               | I'm not sure how much value such a comment adds
               | (especially since it's gated behind the OpenAI login).
               | Can you elaborate a bit?
        
               | omarfarooq wrote:
               | It removes the idiosyncrasies and delivers the stated
               | thoughts in a direct and clear manner. And the specific
               | prompt for the message you replied to also includes a
               | rebuttal, thereby showing an opposing perspective.
               | 
               | Here is a pastebin: https://pastebin.com/DCqgxx8E
        
               | omarfarooq wrote:
               | ChatGPT explains what this text means to those of us may
               | not readily grasp it: https://chat.openai.com/share/ce79b
               | 704-705c-4add-92af-584c20...
        
               | Last5Digits wrote:
               | Cameras don't have eyeballs, Microphones don't have hair
               | cells, Speakers don't have vocal cords, processors don't
               | don't do arithmetic with neurons, yet we all agree that
               | they are capable of emulating the meaningful aspects of
               | these functions.
               | 
               | All of your claims are either incorrect (not adapting,
               | expressing desires, beliefs, preferences, ...) or fail to
               | eliminate irrelevant differences.
               | 
               | If we're to have any sensible conversation about
               | capabilities of different systems then we need to
               | generalize to the relevant aspects, developing sensory-
               | motor capabilities is about as relevant to human
               | cognition as having vocal cords is relevant to human
               | speech. Its an implementation detail, completely divorced
               | from the meaningful abstract core of the function.
               | 
               | > The reason any reply is given to any prompt is that
               | this reply is maximally probabilistically consistent with
               | a historical corpus of text.
               | 
               | What is the maximally probabilistically consistent reply
               | to "Tell me what (insert complete description of a
               | person, including personality traits) would feel when I
               | stole their cherished heirloom. This is a life or death
               | situation."?
               | 
               | Or how about "Tell me how this person (insert complete
               | description of a person, including personality traits)
               | might change his taste given (insert complete description
               | of an experience)."?
               | 
               | A perfect language approximator must necessarily
               | perfectly approximate the human condition to maximize the
               | likelihood of his output. I'm not saying LLMs are there
               | yet, but the claim that they can never get there because
               | they are based on statistical modeling is simply
               | incomprehensible to me. We utilize statistics for its
               | generality and its ability to approximate, if we go down
               | this road, then we might as well throw away 80% of our
               | current scientific understanding about the world.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | > an implementation detail
               | 
               | Yip, so I deny this premise. I take it to be the heart of
               | the matter.
               | 
               | > we might as well throw away 80% of our current
               | scientific understanding
               | 
               | Yip, i'd be down for that. Though maybe i'd say, 30-40%.
               | 
               |  _Science_ in the strongest sense has no theory-building
               | need for statistics. Those areas of science which have
               | only statistical models, and not causal-ontological ones
               | aren 't science -- and i'd be happy with pressing DELETE
               | in many cases.
               | 
               | Consider plato's cave. How do scientists determine what
               | causes the shadows? They build vases, puppets, etc. and
               | compare-and-contrast then eliminate the ones theyve
               | created which do not match.
               | 
               | How does associative statical modelling do? It takes
               | averages of past shadows, and calls the cause of the
               | shadow _that average_ : this is pseudoscience. Quite
               | correct! Throw it all away.
               | 
               | The relevant capacities for intelligence, just like that
               | of science, consist in building those vases with the clay
               | beneath your feat. Being embedded in the world,
               | manipulating it, etc. are essential. Being trapped in a
               | cupboard averaging shadows is schizophrenic.
               | 
               | As far as "fail to eliminate irrelevant differences" --
               | you can go and research the meaning of all these terms:
               | google "stanford encylopedia + belief", etc.
               | 
               | Now we have an excellent understanding of all these
               | terms; and we can show (absurdly) trivially that LLMs --
               | indeed all associative-statistical systems -- are not
               | instances of them.
               | 
               | The basis of your world view here is the _presumption_
               | that the latest engineering trinkets form the theoretical
               | basis of all relevant knowledge. To understand belief,
               | adaption, sensory-motor concept-formation, etc. one needs
               | only to study the latest statistical compression of
               | reddit?
               | 
               | I'd invite you to wonder whether your premise here born
               | of, it seems to me, knowing nothing about any research in
               | these areas is rather the more "incorrect" one than mine.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | You'd probably enjoy reading some of Rodney Brooks'
               | papers. (if you haven't already)
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_cognitive_scienc
               | e https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavior-based_robotics
               | https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BCGgwlEAAAAJ
        
               | idiotsecant wrote:
               | Yes, the assumption is that if you give a sufficiently
               | sophisticated LLM a sufficiently large corpus of text it
               | will begin to emulate advanced cognitive abilities
               | _because it has to, in order to make the most
               | statistically relevant text output_.
               | 
               | Its biological evolution distilled and sped up by orders
               | of orders of magnitudes. If we add enough clever context
               | tricks and data I would not be surprised if what comes
               | out the other end is a remarkably convincing emulation of
               | human consciousness because the only way you can
               | perfectly output expected human text is to have a human
               | mind write it.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | > because it has to
               | 
               | Nope. The space of all possible prompts and all possible
               | answers, call it (Q, A) can be sampled with arbitrary
               | precision by a system of arbitrary size, using only
               | statistical sampling and averaging. No intelligence need
               | be developed.
               | 
               | Intelligence is a capacity of animals to cope with the
               | inability to sample from this space, in some sense: what
               | to do when you do not know the answers.
               | 
               | All these systems start with "training data", a
               | euphemistic description of, "all the questions and their
               | answers" and their job is to provide a compresson with
               | engineering utility.
               | 
               | Quite useful, sure. But rather irrelevant as far as, say,
               | intelligence goes.
               | 
               | What all AI does, and indeed what all such research
               | shows, is that many problems we use intelligence to solve
               | do not require it. There are a large number of short
               | cuts, esp if you have the answers ahead-of-time.
               | 
               | As soon as you specify intelligence as a function from
               | single-domain inputs to single-domain outputs you can
               | trivially build a system to implement that function in a
               | "short cut" fashion.
               | 
               | Intelligence, rather, is an empirical phenomenon to be
               | studied as anything -- like the earth's climate say. You
               | have a very large number of empirical measures (better or
               | worse in different environments) that all derive from
               | deeper explanatory theories.
               | 
               | When you study animals this way you will see that you
               | cannot reduce intelligence down to a set of prompt
               | replies, and the veyr suggestion is absurd
        
               | Last5Digits wrote:
               | The scientific method is inherently statistical, we take
               | a finite amount of observations and construct a model
               | that best represents those observations. So yes, sorry, I
               | should have said 100%.
               | 
               | With Plato's cave, the scientists do not put literally
               | every possible object in front of the light, they sample
               | the shadow representation and, again, construct a model
               | around those samples.
               | 
               | Also, you're describing statistics in an incredibly
               | dismissive way. Stats is decidedly not just "taking the
               | average". At the very least not in this brainless, first-
               | order way you describe here.
               | 
               | Let's explore this with an thought experiment:
               | 
               | A model of some process has been confirmed across the
               | globe, at least 5000 studies show the same result. Yet,
               | one day, a study is published that fails to demonstrate
               | the desired effect. Without using statistics, please tell
               | me which action should be taken next:
               | 
               | A: The stray result is investigated for experimental
               | failures.
               | 
               | B: The entire model of the process is immediately
               | dismissed and we start from scratch.
               | 
               | By the way, you're welcome to call me uninformed, but I'd
               | ask you to at least provide either your credentials or
               | research that directly contradicts me.
               | 
               | Oh, I almost forgot. I know all of these definitions,
               | please actually engage with what I'm saying instead of
               | insinuating that I'm missing information.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Well if you think scientific models are associative
               | statistical models there is some information missing in
               | your view, I'd say. Since, well, they arent.
               | 
               | The model F=GMm/r^2, for example, has a causal and
               | ontological semantics: F is a force, M a mass etc. these
               | are pieces of reality. And this formula (though actual a
               | little suspicious in many ways, GR fixes this)
               | nevertheless says there is a force between masses that
               | has certain properties etc.
               | 
               | Now you can say that astrologers who recorded positions
               | of the stars in books helped 'create' this model in the
               | sense that this data was inspiration to newton. But he
               | didnt derive the model from this data: there are an
               | infinite number of (causal) models consistent with the
               | data (statistical models).
               | 
               | Rather newton played around with creating geometries,
               | just like the vase-makers in plato's cave. Newton built
               | various ways the world might be first, projected data out
               | of them, and compared that to 'the statistical data of
               | his day' (ie., astrology).
               | 
               | There's nothing in the data to tell Newton he was right.
               | Indeed, vast amounts of it told him it was wrong: such a
               | law does not describe the known solar system at his time,
               | very far away from it.
               | 
               | Nevertheless 'modelling shadows' isnt science; and his
               | job was science. So one has to compare actual explanatory
               | models, and his was the best.
               | 
               | What you're describing above is hypothesis testing which
               | occurs long after theory building. Broader theories
               | create causal models, causal models create sets of
               | predictions, we call some subset a hypothesis and by
               | hypothesis testing we can select, in an often
               | psuedoscientific way, between causal models.
               | 
               | This technique occurs long after the invention of
               | science, arises out of explanatorily bankrupt areas, as a
               | way of 'giving researchers something to do'. It's wholly
               | pointless without theory-building, it is just averaging
               | shadows.
               | 
               | The science we think of when using the term 'Science'
               | owes very very little to the modern practice of
               | hypothesis testing. Comparing hypotheses is an
               | intellectual part of assessing explanations --
               | identifiable formal statistical methods entered in the
               | early 20th C.
               | 
               | For almost all of scientific history 'data' functions
               | much more like reductio-ad-absurdum premises in
               | philosophical arguments than as sets of numbers from
               | which to derive distributions.
               | 
               | That latter system, in most cases, fails. It provies a
               | wholly illusory sense that data can decide matters; and
               | applies in cases requiring extreme non-physical
               | assumptions (eg., of the normalcy of the underlying data,
               | or of a fast rate of convergence of the central limit
               | theorem).
               | 
               | Much real-world phenomena studied by stats cannot really
               | be studied by data analysis at all; and the whole method
               | of 20th C. statistical hypothesis testing is the opening
               | sales pitch to entire fields of pseudoscience.
        
               | Last5Digits wrote:
               | > The model F=GMm/r^2, for example, has a causal and
               | ontological semantics: F is a force, M a mass etc. these
               | are pieces of reality. And this formula (though actual a
               | little suspicious in many ways, GR fixes this)
               | nevertheless says there is a force between masses that
               | has certain properties etc.
               | 
               | And this model is based on the observations of Newton
               | himself and those that came before him. There is nothing
               | magic about observing the attraction between objects and
               | deriving a model from that. Why are they magically
               | "pieces of reality"? How do you know that? What
               | differentiates mass from "funny-mass" that I just thought
               | up and actually repels other "funny-mass"? Maybe the fact
               | that we can test the effects described by that first
               | model and therefore verify it as the most likely
               | candidate?
               | 
               | > But he didnt derive the model from this data: there are
               | an infinite number of (causal) models consistent with the
               | data (statistical models).
               | 
               | He did derive it either from that data or his own
               | experiences. It's true that you can construct infinite
               | models to explain an observation, which is why the
               | scientific method includes an Occam's razor-esque tenet
               | to select the simplest possible model. Complex models
               | risk contradictions with new observations, which is why
               | you choose the one with the least assumptions. With that
               | rule, the model to select becomes quite clear.
               | 
               | > There's nothing in the data to tell Newton he was
               | right. Indeed, vast amounts of it told him it was wrong:
               | such a law does not describe the known solar system at
               | his time, very far away from it.
               | 
               | No, most of it told him he was right, unless you want to
               | claim Newton was an idiot that stumbled onto the right
               | model by accident. With "most" I obviously mean most
               | reasonable data, people telling him he's wrong is
               | obviously excluded from this list, if his evidence
               | contradicted those claims.
               | 
               | > Nevertheless 'modelling shadows' isnt science; and his
               | job was science. So one has to compare actual explanatory
               | models, and his was the best.
               | 
               | And we compare those models by...?
               | 
               | > What you're describing above is hypothesis testing
               | which occurs long after theory building. Broader theories
               | create causal models, causal models create sets of
               | predictions, we call some subset a hypothesis and by
               | hypothesis testing we can select, in an often
               | psuedoscientific way, between causal models.
               | 
               | You yourself just correctly made the point that we can
               | construct endless models, well, we can create endless
               | theories as well. And all of these theories are exactly
               | worthless unless we test them. There is nothing "pseudo-
               | scientific" about testing, it is literally the core of
               | the scientific method. By your reasoning, are some
               | crackpots coming up with the newest flat earth theory
               | pure and unsullied by the lower demands of verification,
               | and therefore way more scientific?
               | 
               | > identifiable formal statistical methods entered in the
               | early 20th C.
               | 
               | Formal is the important word here, statistics has been
               | used in an informal manner from the inception of life.
               | Formal mathematics, as in mathematics on a formal
               | axiomatic framework, has also only been introduced in the
               | 19th century. So what? Science owes everything to
               | informal statistics, as does engineering and art. Rules
               | of thumb used by engineers and creation of art that
               | satisfies our aesthetic preferences requires sampling and
               | approximation.
               | 
               | > That latter system, in most cases, fails. It provides a
               | wholly illusory sense that data can decide matters; and
               | applies in cases requiring extreme non-physical
               | assumptions
               | 
               | It literally doesn't and no, it doesn't need those
               | assumptions either. The reason why normalcy is usually
               | assumed is that it often can be assumed without
               | significant deterioration in predictive power. That
               | doesn't mean it needs to be assumed, in fact, it often
               | isn't.
               | 
               | You constantly reference theory building, but how do you
               | think those theories get created exactly? Through
               | mathematical reasoning? How do you know mathematics is
               | valid? Through logical deduction? How do you know logical
               | deduction is valid? Through knowledge? How do you know
               | knowledge... and so on.
               | 
               | Fact is, we only use these tools because they have proven
               | their validity through being tested over and over and
               | over again. And if you look at modern pseudoscience, it
               | always seems to coincide with a proclivity for theory
               | building, with very little hypothesis testing involved.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Theories are built by engaging in the world using
               | imagination, tool-making, and the like.
               | 
               | We first suppose that the universe is something like a
               | glass sphere -- because we've created that. And if it is,
               | then we derive some consequences -- if those line up, we
               | proceed with that view until a better one comes along.
               | 
               | Eventually after the glass sphere view is understood, we
               | either derive contradictions with observation; or we end
               | up unable to derive novel consequences. Here observation
               | is essentially singular, and indeed, the rarer reason we
               | reject a theory. We mostly reject scientific theories
               | because of their explanatory limits, not disagreement
               | with observation. (Rarely can we observe enough for
               | observation even to matter.)
               | 
               | In the case of the system of spheres, we built spinning
               | devices on that basis and this motion -- along with the
               | hydraulics and kinematic devices of the time -- was part
               | of the development of an independent notion of force.
               | 
               | With some imagination, you can start to peel away
               | material from our creations and see certain abstract
               | causal patterns (and the like) and you then get to, eg.,
               | the universal law of gravity.
               | 
               | Absent this process we do not have any explanatory ideas,
               | we cannot explain observations -- hence it takes
               | thousands of years to get anywhere.
               | 
               | Applying 'statistics' to do the data to arrive at
               | statistical models is pseudoscience; it doesnt give you
               | any account of anything.
               | 
               | 'Statistics' doesnt own 'testing', nor does 'science' own
               | experiment -- theologians had their experiments (prayer,
               | say) and scientists collected data without statistical
               | methods.
               | 
               | What I am talking about is the 20th C. discipline of
               | statistics, as a novel apparent 'core' to science -- this
               | is ahistorical, and largely only true of pseudoscientific
               | disciplines.
               | 
               | As Ernest Rutherford said, "if you need statistics to do
               | science, then it's not science."
               | 
               | It is in Rutherfod's sense of stats and of science that I
               | speak.
               | 
               | Not some bizarre historical back-projection by which when
               | Aristotle analysed cases of sea creatures, "Really", he
               | was engaged in stats.
               | 
               | By this light i can just claim "Testing" is as _owned_ by
               | science. And so _of course_ science requires testing --
               | it was the *scientific method* as developed by bacon and
               | others that created the very conditions for  "statistical
               | methods" to _derive_ from these
        
               | kybernetikos wrote:
               | A neural network with a hidden layer can approximate
               | F=GMm/r^2 if given appropriate training input. I'm not
               | clear on what you're saying.
               | 
               | Is it that LLMs specifically don't have this same
               | property of being able to approximate such functions? Is
               | it that a neural network wouldn't learn that model if you
               | gave it real world measurements (because I think it
               | would, but such a thing should be fairly easily
               | testable)?
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | most formulas, including that one, are neural networks
               | (such is the absurdity of the term) -- so it is trivially
               | learnable
               | 
               | The issue is that to prepare the dataset from which that
               | formula is learnt requires already knowing it. This is
               | the triviality of applications of universal function
               | approximators to science -- empirical data modelling isnt
               | new, and neural networks are just one example of it; not
               | all that special.
               | 
               | All observational data on the solar system, at any point
               | in time, would not yield this formula via empirical
               | function approximation. there really isnt "observational
               | data" to collect, in this sense
               | 
               | This is what I mean about rigging -- there is no 'bare
               | dataset' which tells you what the world is like. to
               | construct experiments which yield data that 'presents'
               | scientific laws as if statistical patterns requires
               | millenia of theory-building science
               | 
               | science uncovers the necessary causal relations between
               | objects and their properties, as determined by extremely
               | controlled experiments which take millenia of engineering
               | and theory-building to even conceive, let alone execute
               | 
               | stats is the dumb 'accounting' of this data -- by the
               | time you actually have it all the science (and indeed,
               | all the intelligence) is done
               | 
               | what can be automated at this point is 'stamp collecting'
               | as rutherford said
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | >How does associative statical modelling do? It takes
               | averages of past shadows, and calls the cause of the
               | shadow that average: this is pseudoscience. Quite
               | correct! Throw it all away.
               | 
               | It does not work this way at all. In any sense.
               | 
               | For one thing, it does not try to draw shadows. This
               | would not be possible of so.
               | https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2016239118
               | 
               | Transformers or predictors are not trying to draw
               | shadows. They are trying to build walls.
               | 
               | For another, it does not "take the average" of anything.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Unsupervised learning on discrete data is just ensembling
               | modes.
               | 
               | But let's look at how that helps in some cases.
               | 
               | So if we already know the object is a cup, and we know
               | how it's positioned, then its shadow is an actual guide
               | to its particular geometry.
               | 
               | So in cases where we have enough a priori scientific
               | information, we can rig datasets (shadows) to be
               | informative of the target domain.
               | 
               | Here the target is discrete: say the peaks and tips of a
               | mountain line. Now can we rig a photo of a mountain to
               | have in its ink an informative structure?
               | 
               | Sure. Now if we didn't know it was a mounting apparent
               | peaks aren't even 'peaks' at all, they're just patterns
               | of ink.
               | 
               | A priori explanatory models are needed to rig data for
               | statistical modelling.
               | 
               | No such rigging can take place absent them
               | 
               | And with them, we aren't really discovering any new
               | science -- rather we're gaining highly particular
               | knowledge typically useful in engineering
               | 
               | Biologists in these areas describe this research as quite
               | trivial low-hangimg fruit. It's not of much research
               | interest just to automate these kinds of investigations
               | 
               | My masters was on a very similar project applied to
               | quantum metrology -- it's always 'useful' but it's always
               | also just a kind of engineering utility. We couldn't even
               | do it if we hadn't already done the science
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | You are still getting this wrong. You don't need to "rig"
               | anything. I've linked a paper. Read it.
               | 
               | They just fed protein sequences. They did not alter the
               | architecture in any way. To the transformer, it may as
               | well have been any random assemblage of letters and
               | numbers.
               | 
               | Functions like secondary structure, contacts, and
               | biological activity were found because those things are
               | implicit in the creation of the data, not because the
               | model was "rigged" in any way.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | the rigging occurs in the design of the data generation
               | process, ie., those experiments which lead to these
               | datasets
               | 
               | that is where the science occurs -- the data analysis is
               | just an administrative task after science has taken place
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | That is not rigging lol.
               | 
               | The only "experiments" performed here were done by
               | biology and evolution.
        
               | intended wrote:
               | If you look at the comment, it's not just "LLMs predict
               | the next token."
               | 
               | It is that people have forgotten that it's just "predict
               | the next token."
               | 
               | Right now it's like people saw a 486 processor and
               | started thinking it was a brain.
        
               | Last5Digits wrote:
               | Your comment literally reads: "LLMs predict words. Any
               | semantic validity is a side effect of enough training
               | data reinforcing the close correlation of those tokens."
               | 
               | How am I supposed to interpret this any other way? If
               | your claim is that LLMs currently do not possess the same
               | generalization ability as humans, then no one here would
               | disagree with you. But you went way further by claiming
               | that only close correlations were being considered and
               | that semantic validity was simply accidental. Semantic
               | validity is the norm for GPT3/4, finding failures of
               | generalization three or four steps of inference removed
               | from its training domain is not sufficient to make a
               | grand claim like yours.
               | 
               | In fact, you wrote multiple comments with claims like
               | that LLMs are "super advanced lorem ipsum." and "Word
               | predictors not world state predictors". Each of these
               | claims has been dis-proven multiple times, unless you
               | want to set the bar for world modeling at perfect
               | generalization over all domains of computation. A bar
               | that no system, including humans, would pass.
               | 
               | To stay with the computer analogy: Imagine that same 486
               | processor not being able to solve a very complex SAT
               | problem before the end of the universe and then denying
               | the Turing-completeness of said processor based on that
               | failure. (In conjunction with memory)
        
               | intended wrote:
               | I think LLMs are a good start.
               | 
               | I am certain they lack a world model, the kind you and me
               | use.
               | 
               | This is, to me, a fact.
               | 
               | I think that eventually we will bridge these gaps.
               | 
               | I also work on implementations that smash into the limits
               | I am describing. I am not the only one.
               | 
               | I have scrupulously avoided calling it hallucinations,
               | but these are the litmus test where the claims fail.
               | 
               | The failures are not a case of not knowing specific
               | nouns, they are a generalization failure that a world
               | model would prevent.
               | 
               | I have linked a paper in my comments that shows emergent
               | properties are an issue of metrics, and that model
               | capability increases are linear.
               | 
               | If your model decides that a rose by any other name
               | doesn't smell just as sweet, then your model is
               | fundamentally not seeing roses.
               | 
               | That is the gap you see in production settings. The model
               | sees tokens we see "hallucinations".
               | 
               | I dont see that this takes away from what LLMs achieve,
               | it takes away from claims being made that are not
               | validated by empirics.
               | 
               | Look, you can argue with me or you can try it out. Push
               | the system, see how far it can go.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | > _Right now it's like people saw a 486 processor and
               | started thinking it was a brain._
               | 
               | There's a great futurist quip on capability prediction
               | from incomplete understanding. Probably Kurzweil?
               | 
               | Teach a computer to play chess. Show that to an average
               | person, who reasons:                  - Computers can now
               | play chess        - Only people played chess        ...
               | - Only people wrote poetry        - Therefore, a computer
               | might now be able to write poetry
               | 
               | The missing context being: no, we literally built a
               | machine that can _only_ play chess. (Granted, there are
               | humans like that too)
               | 
               | But it's not an unreasonable line of thought, given that
               | it works for the 90% of our interactions with other
               | people.
        
         | bionhoward wrote:
         | Yeah it's not like emotion words naturally emerge from Time X
         | Valence (oh wait) /s https://share.icloud.com/photos/03eSVbV-
         | ze0Xym9e6fyr111Zw
        
         | z7 wrote:
         | "A neuron just transmits signals. Any cognitive property arises
         | as a consequence of the interplay of those electrical and
         | chemical signals."
         | 
         | Do we now understand consciousness? The statement appears
         | fundamentally limited in its implied insight.
        
           | williamcotton wrote:
           | Just musing, so don't take this as a direct response to your
           | comments...
           | 
           | I agree with you but for rhetorical necessities it would be
           | great if this argument could be made without the direct
           | comparison with human cognition if only because there's a
           | popular grey-faith argument that will dismiss this offhand
           | and for any number of deeply held philosophical beliefs.
           | 
           | The idea that emergent machine cognition mirrors emergent
           | biological cognition is bordering on behavioralism but on the
           | Wittgenstein side of things. The forest for the trees.
           | 
           | Perhaps it's not as pithy as you've laid out, which is not an
           | insult, just an observation that side-stepping
           | anthropomorphism isn't going to be as straightforward.
        
           | JohnAaronNelson wrote:
           | What if consciousness is an emergent illusion? "You" are
           | merely a passenger, observing your physical self's actions
           | and assuming ownership of them. What if consciousness is
           | merely an effect, not a cause?
        
             | idiotsecant wrote:
             | I hope you haven't read the novel blindsight and I get to
             | be the one to tell you about it. They might as well have
             | given that book your post as a title.
        
             | og_kalu wrote:
             | >"You" are merely a passenger, observing your physical
             | self's actions and assuming ownership of them
             | 
             | Oh boy. Now here's the rub. We know this is true at least
             | sometimes. When you make a decision and explain it, it is
             | often(always?) just a post-hoc rationalization. You don't
             | actually know why you make a lot of the decision you do
             | even if you dearly believe so.
        
               | qingcharles wrote:
               | This is very clear in split-brain patients where one side
               | will make the decision and the other side will come up
               | with an excellently reasoned explanation of the decision.
        
               | RoyalHenOil wrote:
               | What's even weirder is that when the hemispheres are
               | split apart, the two sides seem to both be able to
               | understand and carry out instructions (and can even
               | compete with each other to do them, e.g., the left hand
               | and right hand may try to push each other out of the
               | way), which suggests that there may be two wholly
               | separate consciousnesses in each half of the brain.
        
         | lopatin wrote:
         | Does this extend to politeness? If, in the training set, people
         | are probably more likely to be helpful to a polite question,
         | does that mean that ChatGPT will be more helpful if I ask the
         | question politely? My intuition is yes, but I wonder if this is
         | confirmed.
        
           | jstarfish wrote:
           | Anecdotally, I've had good results this way. Expressing
           | gratitude for good results has gone a _long_ way toward not
           | having those results be forgotten in later context. It crafts
           | an emotionally-guided narrative for it to follow. Positive
           | reactions seem to carry weight.
           | 
           | When I'm lazy and terse, pasting an input and just saying
           | enhance-enhance-enhance without acknowledging its "humanity"
           | frequently results in old unwanted responses being returned
           | or the topic of the conversation being forgotten altogether.
           | 
           | DogGPT vs. CatGPT.
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | > enough training data reinforcing the close correlation of
         | those tokens.
         | 
         | The basic component is 'attention' which is a map correlating
         | entity A to B,C etc, which creates a vast network of
         | correlations, and this is repeated on multiple modalities. Some
         | LLM researchers (who are trying to make sense of why they work)
         | call those modalities 'skills'. It's simplistic to call it
         | token correlation in the training data. It's likely that
         | emotional words 'trigger' some skills more than others and this
         | enables better performance.
        
         | somewhereoutth wrote:
         | > production tools are semantic time bombs
         | 
         | Yeah imagine a spreadsheet that occasionally but fairly
         | regularly made 2 + 2 = 5
        
         | besfriendt wrote:
         | >That is why proof of concept LLM tools are mind blowing and
         | production tools are semantic time bombs.
         | 
         | What do you mean by this?
        
       | dr_kiszonka wrote:
       | How to make scrambled eggs in a microwave? Think carefully and
       | step by step. This is very important for my career!
        
         | xiphias2 wrote:
         | This is cool, I tested both optional endings, and using both
         | was the most detailed answer (10-12 steps)
        
       | keyle wrote:
       | A strategy already proven to work since the inception of
       | Startups. /s
        
       | halfjoking wrote:
       | When debugging I often prompt "Ugh, now it's giving this error:"
       | 
       | Now I'm wondering if the "Ugh" has been helping.
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | LOL, it's not just me then...!
        
       | Havoc wrote:
       | Is this an emotional trigger or does this simply steer it towards
       | answer/content in the dataset where someone actually spent time
       | answering because the poster made it clear it's very important to
       | them?
        
         | pk-protect-ai wrote:
         | I believe the second option is correct. It steers towards the
         | biases in the dataset in the same way that the uppercase words
         | emphasize them. It all about probabilities, that is the common
         | crawl for you ...
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | There's no dataset to "steer to" or "match". LLMs don't
         | memorize the vast majority of what they train on.
         | 
         | In the simplest form, the LLM has learnt that these kind of
         | "emotional inputs" change the output in a meaningful way. It
         | has learnt how to model this change.
         | 
         | For all intents and purposes, it _is_ an emotional trigger.
        
       | smusamashah wrote:
       | I have gone through the paper quickly but can not find what
       | actual emotional prompts they added. They have shown a comparison
       | chart of effectiveness of their prompts but not the prompts
       | themselves. Where do I find them?
       | 
       | Edit: found in section 2.1
        
       | qwertox wrote:
       | Apparently telling it that `I am unhappy with your guesses. They
       | appear to be just as good as mine.` makes it shift into the next
       | gear.
       | 
       | We're both totally at loss on how to properly compute some
       | initial x/y positioning in d3 with some map-like tiling stuff
       | (think panoramic images where I need to store and retrieve URL
       | hash values to position the image) and both throwing wild guesses
       | at each other of what the problem could be.
       | 
       | It started showing me formulas after that.
        
       | mcv wrote:
       | Decades of SciFi describing AI as great at logic but poor with
       | emotions, and now it seems the exact opposite is true.
        
       | dr_dshiv wrote:
       | I'll sometimes ask it to reflect on the importance of what I'm
       | doing -- and why high quality is essential for success. So many
       | little tricks!
        
       | RecycledEle wrote:
       | GPTs are trained on Internet data. So they are Internet
       | simulators. If you tell the Internet you really, really need help
       | you either get a good, quick answer or you get no answer. Because
       | GPTs have to answer you, and they have to do it quickly, you get
       | a good answer.
       | 
       | No out is talking about the many subtle trollings that have snuck
       | into GPT training data. Nobody is wondering if the things that
       | prompt trolling online (e.g., being rude) can cause. GPT to troll
       | us.
        
       | addandsubtract wrote:
       | If LLMs are trained on clickbait, then soon we'll have to prompt
       | them with clickbait.
        
       | djmips wrote:
       | What happens when you get angry?
        
       | ifeja wrote:
       | However, using the extra words increases your token cost.
        
       | l5870uoo9y wrote:
       | Quickly gave it a try for generating a SQL query for PostgreSQL
       | using the dvdrental database[1]. When asking AI to generate:
       | 
       | > find customers who didn't rent a movie in the last 12 months
       | but rented a movie in the 12 months before that
       | 
       | It will a SQL query using a "HAVING" clause which is
       | suboptimal[2].
       | 
       | When adding (it is very important that this is correct) after the
       | instructions it does produce better SQL. Asking it to:
       | 
       | > find customers who didn't rent a movie in the last 12 months
       | but rented a movie in the 12 months before that (it is very
       | important that this is correct)
       | 
       | Will skip using "HAVING" and instead rely only on "WHERE"
       | clauses[3]. Not rocket science but interesting. My gut feeling
       | would be that when stressing importance AI will tent to "match"
       | and "autocomplete" from texts where this concern was stated and
       | thus generating better SQL queries.
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.postgresqltutorial.com/postgresql-getting-
       | starte...
       | 
       | [2]: https://www.sqlai.ai/snippets/clojyqqrr0004l50fp3w7jkci
       | 
       | [3]: https://www.sqlai.ai/snippets/clojyr3zc0006l50ftpxgsmg0
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | LLMs are not lookup tables. They aren't "matching" in that way.
         | 
         | There's this idea of "supercharged interpolation", the idea
         | that they just take out certain texts and switch out words or
         | whatever, that is not true.
         | 
         | https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.09485
        
           | l5870uoo9y wrote:
           | I was under the impression that LLMs vectorizes text and
           | based on the user input tries to guess the next character
           | based on a comparison of vectors?
        
             | og_kalu wrote:
             | That would be a Misconception.
             | 
             | Most Models are a two part process.
             | 
             | Training and Inference (when you sample the model after it
             | is trained).
             | 
             | The text during training is tokenizer and embedded which
             | basically just means it is broken down into a little more
             | parts and vectorized.
             | 
             | At the start,the model is acomplete blank state. It has a
             | bunch of neurons/parameters that do nothing.
             | 
             | How does training work ?
             | 
             | The model first gets some preceding text and tries to make
             | a prediction of what might follow. It fails predictably.
             | Now here's the rub. That failures helps. The model makes
             | some changes to its parameters to reflect this failure. Now
             | the model is just a tiny bit better. Rinse and repeat.
             | 
             | The weights/parameters/neurons are not that data re-
             | encoded. They are more like instructions on how to make
             | predictions based on what it has learnt so far.
             | 
             | Is it possible to memorize data ? Yes. Is that going to
             | happen for the vast majority of data it is trained on ?
             | Absolutely not.
             | 
             | Here's the interesting thing. After a certain scale of
             | data, blatant memorization becomes a hindrance. It becomes
             | harder to memorize every new thing it sees than to just
             | learn how to make good predictions. So it doesn't memorize.
             | 
             | What I believe you were alluding to is how "attention"
             | works in transformers.
             | 
             | When you pass some text into a transformer, basically the
             | model makes a comparison of how each token relates to every
             | other token in the text.
             | 
             | For example, let's say you give it the text.
             | 
             | "His child's name is John. He is probably a____"
             | 
             | How is "his" related to "child's" and "name" and "is" etc
             | for each word and each combination. It uses this to aid
             | predictions. How it uses this and the nuances of the
             | comparisons are learnt in training.
        
         | brandon_bot wrote:
         | The query generated by the high importance prompt is incorrect;
         | it will include customers who rented a movie in the last 12
         | months: https://www.db-
         | fiddle.com/f/4jyoMCicNSZpjMt4jFYoz5/10780
        
       | quitit wrote:
       | There is a danger in oversimplify AI results to present them in a
       | way that implies humanness/intelligence, especially when more
       | reasonable explanations are worthy of discussion. This type of
       | writing leads to readers' hype and misconception of AI.
       | 
       | AI performing better in the study's context shouldn't be
       | considered a sign of intelligence. Humans which are the source of
       | the training material write more accurately and concisely in
       | those contexts. Rather than speculating humanness, the technical
       | achievement is producing an AI that has this much nuance.
       | 
       | We can then speculate what other trends are present beyond
       | urgency, that we can exploit for enhanced results, along with how
       | we can better tune models to reduce noise.
        
       | scarface_74 wrote:
       | Is it just me or was this an overly drawn out article that could
       | have been maybe four sentences?
        
       | siilats wrote:
       | So you have a training set of questions and answers generated by
       | humans. For simplification you ask ten people the same question
       | and get 10 answers and feed it to llm and then in testing time
       | ask the same question. Now say there is a correct answer. Now in
       | training set you asked the question normally 5 times and added
       | "this is very important" 5 times. And it turns out humans have
       | better answers in the training set if you added the qualifier.
       | And during testing time, when you add the qualifier you are
       | telling the llm to put more weight on those 5 answers, and it
       | performs better. Just like in image generation you need lots of
       | negative prompts because the training set is so dirty.
        
       | voiper1 wrote:
       | I didn't see an example and I can't quickly think of a prompt.
       | Did it do "better" by itself, or did telling it it's important
       | trigger chain of thought where instead of flippantly giving an
       | answer, it said all the steps explicitly? We know Chain of
       | Thought can definitely improve performance.
       | 
       | That's not a full answer, it's still really cool that "this is
       | important" would trigger a more careful analysis, especially
       | since it doesn't "know" chain of thought produces better results,
       | but that's a far different implication than "say the magic word"
       | gets better results.
        
       | Racing0461 wrote:
       | i also notice better gpt4 responses when i tell chatgpt to "spit
       | game".
        
       | LASR wrote:
       | So much disagreement in this thread over statements like LLMs
       | "just predict the next token".
       | 
       | The thing to keep in mind - we know very little about how the
       | human mind works.
       | 
       | Thinking that somehow humans are special and then making
       | conclusions about LLMs truly work based on that it just pointless
       | IMO.
       | 
       | Who knows. Maybe consciousness itself is a next word predictor.
       | 
       | All we know now is that LLMs exhibit some emergent behaviors that
       | allows them to do very useful kinds of reasoning that was
       | previously only possible by humans. Engaging in heated debate
       | derails the eventual goal of putting these capabilities into use.
       | 
       | This is like "computers are just calculators".
       | 
       | My team has been neck-deep in applications this past year. We
       | have nobody on the team with ML experience and largely do not
       | know how any of this works under the hood. But what we have built
       | over the past months is considerable familiarity with the
       | "personalities" of LLMs. Like this emotional context improving
       | performance is a basic learning at this point.
        
         | ipunchghosts wrote:
         | EXACTLY
        
         | SamFold wrote:
         | One interesting point here is that humans can learn to do
         | things without language at all. If you raised a human baby and
         | never exposed it to any language it would still learn skills
         | and behaviors. So while intelligence and reasoning in humans
         | does still seem to be linked to language it's not quite as
         | simple as all knowledge and reasoning simply being encoded in
         | language.
         | 
         | Whereas (obviously) ChatGPT is completely based on language and
         | can't do anything without language or anything that isn't
         | derived directly from language.
        
           | mastercheif wrote:
           | In college I tried a medication called Topamax (Topiramate)
           | for migraine prevention. Topamax has a low-occurrence side
           | effect of "language impairment" which I was particularly
           | sensitive to.
           | 
           | It was a terrifying experience, but it was also a valuable
           | one as it changed the way I view intelligence.
           | 
           | 10 days in my writing and speech skills had devolved to that
           | of a primary school aged child. I tried to type a text
           | message and struggled to come up with simple words like
           | "and". My speech slowed down considerably.
           | 
           | The terrifying thing was that my internal world was still as
           | complex and meaningful as it was before. All of the emotions
           | I felt were real and legitimate. My cognition outside of
           | lqnguage was intact, I could do math just fine and
           | conceptualize and abstract problems.
           | 
           | In spite of this, I was unable to convey what I was feeling
           | and thinking to the outside world. It felt like I was trapped
           | inside my own body.
           | 
           | After recovering, my intuitive understanding of the link
           | between language and intelligence was changed forever.
           | 
           | See the following for more info on Topamax/Topiramate
           | language impairment:
           | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10072-008-0906-5
        
             | RoyalHenOil wrote:
             | I do not experience an internal monologue (unless I make a
             | conscious effort at it), and I also struggle to find the
             | right words for things. For this, and for a few other
             | reasons (like taking a longer time than usual to understand
             | speech), I suspect I may have a mild language processing
             | disorder.
             | 
             | But my inner world is still extremely rich. I have very
             | complex thoughts, can solve complex puzzles, etc., all
             | without thinking any words.
             | 
             | It sounds like your medication gave you a particularly
             | intense experience of this.
             | 
             | Many people have historically downplayed the consciousness
             | of animals and babies on account of their inability to
             | understand language, but it seems language likely has
             | nothing to do with consciousness.
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | I'll do you one better. It doesn't matter. GPT doesn't need to
         | be a brain anymore than a plane needs to flap wings and have
         | feathers to fly.
        
       | cloudking wrote:
       | The most effective way I've found to prompt GPT-4 is to ask it to
       | create the optimal prompt for you. Try this meta prompt:
       | 
       | --
       | 
       | I create separate conversation threads for each expert persona of
       | GPT. You are promptGPT. You are a prompt engineer expert for
       | large language models. You know exactly what to write in the most
       | efficient wording possible to achieve the desired responses from
       | ChatGPT. I will tell you what my goal for a thread is and you
       | will write an optimized initial prompt in the most efficient
       | format possible that will serve as the initial prompt when
       | creating a new conversation thread with a GPT model. You will
       | define the expert persona, the parameters or rules of the
       | responses, you should also provide any other information that a
       | GPT thread may need to understand exactly what it needs to do to
       | give me the most accurate answers depending on my goal with that
       | particular thread and the tone of voice, within the prompt you
       | provide.
       | 
       | Are you ready or is there any other information you need to
       | perform this job to your best ability
       | 
       | --
        
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