[HN Gopher] Attenuating Innovation (AI)
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Attenuating Innovation (AI)
Author : todsacerdoti
Score : 58 points
Date : 2023-11-01 14:19 UTC (8 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (stratechery.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (stratechery.com)
| sharadov wrote:
| America will be the loser in this high-handed government approach
| to regulate and stifle innovation.
| paulryanrogers wrote:
| Bad regulations are bad. That's why we don't want Sam (or
| anyone else) to capture the regulators.
|
| We still want enough regulations that humans aren't dragged to
| the curb after every fender bender with a self-driving car.
| seydor wrote:
| YOu can always safely bet that it will be second to the EU
| abss wrote:
| While current Large Language Models (LLMs) offer impressive
| capabilities, they exhibit significant limitations, particularly
| in decision-making and planning. Establishing a robust
| orchestration mechanism to guide LLMs' 'intelligent but error-
| prone intuition' remains a considerable challenge. Realizing such
| a system might take decades, if it is even feasible. The author
| contends that utilizing fear as a marketing tactic is a facile
| means to generate hype and solidify market dominance, often with
| state support.
|
| Success in human endeavors is a confluence of intelligence,
| timing, and fortuitous events. Extrapolating this to hypothetical
| future AI entities, it is unlikely that they would be exempt from
| similar complexities. An AI capable of negating the factor of
| 'luck' would likely require vast computational resources in a
| short period, rendering it vulnerable and fragile
| jay_kyburz wrote:
| What I don't understand is why Windows continues to ignore
| mobile. OK sure, you missed the start, but I think there is
| plenty to room for a 3rd seat at the table. They just don't want
| to do the hard work and grind it out. Sure 10 years of hard
| grind, but mobile is not going anywhere.
|
| Build a tight integration with the online stuff the are trying to
| push. Bing, AI, Office Online. Enterprise will eat it up! They
| could just give the phones out free with your Microsoft online
| life subscription.
|
| Its like nobody at windows really gives a fuck any more.
| tempodox wrote:
| All they can manage is to slap a bunch of ads on everything.
| That probably already counts as hard grind.
| belugacat wrote:
| "The only problem with Microsoft is they just have no taste.
| They have absolutely no taste. And I don't mean that in a small
| way, I mean that in a big way, in the sense that they don't
| think of original ideas, and they don't bring much culture into
| their products."
| AlexandrB wrote:
| > Its like nobody at windows really gives a fuck any more.
|
| I think this has been the case for a while. They're on their,
| what, fifth[1] UI framework since Windows 7? Most of the
| innovation seems to be in monetization and finding ways to
| install Edge or make it the default browser.
|
| [1] https://www.irrlicht3d.org/index.php?t=1626
| paulryanrogers wrote:
| Ignore?
|
| They had Windows Mobile, bought Nokia, tried Windows Phone.
| Devs didn't want to write apps for three platforms. So so have
| since died.
| jay_kyburz wrote:
| My recollection is that they pulled the plug before anybody
| had the time to finish an app. Things take time. Users and
| Developers both want a nice solid foundation to build on.
|
| Big tech need to stop thinking 1 year out and look 10 years
| out if you ask me.
| henrysg wrote:
| Fantastic paragraph:
|
| "The point is this: if you accept the premise that regulation
| locks in incumbents, then it sure is notable that the early AI
| winners seem the most invested in generating alarm in Washington,
| D.C. about AI. This despite the fact that their concern is
| apparently not sufficiently high to, you know, stop their work.
| No, they are the responsible ones, the ones who care enough to
| call for regulation; all the better if concerns about imagined
| harms kneecap inevitable competitors."
| kbenson wrote:
| The other way to look at it is that it's an arms race. Just
| because you believe something is problematic, that doesn't mean
| that stopping research into it doesn't lead into problems in
| its own right, and it can be hard to know what is the greater
| evil (but generally consensus has been it's better to be in
| control of that evil than to let someone else be in control of
| it and use it against you).
|
| I'm sure many of the scientists that worked on nuclear weaponry
| over the years weren't in a hurry to see their work deployed,
| but felt their country the more responsibly party to have that
| capability, even if just to keep level with others.
| lewhoo wrote:
| If such cynical people are behind such powerful technology then
| it might be the best argument for even harder regulations.
| localhost wrote:
| The Steve Jobs quote in response to Walt Mossberg's question:
|
| _The core functions of the device form factor formerly known as
| the cellphone, whatever we want to call it -- the pocket device
| -- what would you say the core functions are five years out?_
|
| at the centerpiece of Ben's argument is lovely.
|
| _I don't know.
|
| The reason I don't know is because I wouldn't have thought that
| there would have been maps on it five years ago. But something
| comes along, gets really popular, people love it, get used to it,
| you want it on there. People are inventing things constantly and
| I think the art of it is balancing what's on there and what's not
| -- it's the editing function._
|
| Contrast it with Bill Gates' answer to the same question:
|
| _How quickly all these things that have been somewhat
| specialized -- the navigation device, the digital wallet, the
| phone, the camera, the video camera -- how quickly those all come
| together, that's hard to chart out, but eventually you'll be able
| to make something that has the capability to do every one of
| those things. And yet given the small size, you still won't want
| to edit your homework or edit a movie on a screen of that size,
| and so you'll have something else that lets you do the reading
| and editing and those things. Now if we could ever get a screen
| that would just roll out like a scroll, then you might be able to
| have the device that did everything._
|
| It makes me reflect on how important it is to remain humble about
| the possibilities of AI and what developers can create using it
| (and the tools that they will use to create it). _" And we are
| just getting started"._
| smallerfish wrote:
| How wrong was Gates though? Maybe it's generational, but I
| wouldn't want to edit homework or a movie on the screen. I
| vastly prefer chatting and composing emails on desktop or a
| laptop. I primarily use my phone for exactly the 5 things he
| lists. I get the overall point, but he wasn't so wrong.
| esafak wrote:
| He wasn't, but he didn't show Jobs' humility. Jobs could have
| given the same answer; he was no less visionary than Gates.
| This interview was from 2007. Apple started work on tablets
| (the Newton) in 1987, when they ran ads like this:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umJsITGzXd0
| cma wrote:
| Is that vid an example of his visionariness? Jobs was fired
| from Apple in 1985.
| seydor wrote:
| Tbf, the windows screenshot can totally serve as a precursor to
| the iphone: It has "the one button" (start) that gives hierarchy
| to the interface, the top/bottom bar and full-width menus. It
| doesnt really look like desktop. The missing link is the lack of
| decent touchscreen that gave life to all of it.
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(page generated 2023-11-01 23:01 UTC)