[HN Gopher] China is becoming a data black hole, says short sell...
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China is becoming a data black hole, says short seller Aandahl
Author : hker
Score : 42 points
Date : 2023-10-23 05:01 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (theedgemalaysia.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (theedgemalaysia.com)
| jemmyw wrote:
| China's leadership seem fairly intent recently on destroying the
| areas where China's economy was picking up. Tech companies,
| software developers, and now anything innovative that would
| benefit from external investment to get off the ground.
| grey-area wrote:
| They're trying to cover up a massive crash, in real estate
| especially. They're also preparing for war over Taiwan amidst
| tightening US sanctions.
|
| Long term for the country it is terrible strategy,
| unfortunately short term for the dictator and his cronies it is
| profitable.
| kyleyeats wrote:
| The China and the US are both doing this in some kind of
| twisted PR standoff. The only way anything the US is doing
| makes any sense is through this lens.
| roenxi wrote:
| If they are trying to cover up a crash, it'll be a typical
| example of why centralised control fails so hard at
| economics. A crash isn't like a storm or something where a
| new force appears; it is a recognition that _past_ decisions
| were not as effective as people at the time thought. Trying
| to fight a crash just keeps people doing destructive work for
| longer instead of moving on and finding some other activity.
| grey-area wrote:
| Yes I agree, but in a dictatorship the interests of the
| country and the interests of those at the top are not
| aligned.
|
| Another example of this recently - imprisoning your top
| entrepreneurs is a great way to ensure that your tech
| industry completely dies, but only over a long time frame
| as nobody comes up to replace the current companies (they
| all leave if they can). In the short term it offers great
| opportunities to enrich the leadership at the expense of
| all that wealth generated in previous decades, and at the
| expense of course of the country's future wealth.
|
| So long term a disastrous decision for the country, short
| term it pays out for the current leaders if their cover up
| domestically is sufficiently thorough and there are other
| events to distract the populace (e.g. expansion through
| war).
| graemep wrote:
| > in a dictatorship the interests of the country and the
| interests of those at the top are not aligned.
|
| I wish that was a problem only in dictatorships.
|
| > long term a disastrous decision for the country, short
| term it pays out for the current leaders if their cover
| up
|
| Dictators will remain in charge long term. To that extent
| their interests are better aligned with those of the
| country. I decision that will be bad in the medium term
| can be quite good for the ruling party in a democracy if
| they lose the next election and can persuade the
| electorate to blame whoever is in charge at the time.
| RandomLensman wrote:
| No, not how dictatorships work. The usually work by
| keeping the supporting 2nd layer below the dictor happy
| and under control, which has nothing to do with country
| as such.
|
| Coincidentally, things could align, but they often don't.
| gwervc wrote:
| > in a dictatorship the interests of the country and the
| interests of those at the top are not aligned
|
| It isn't either in a democracy.
|
| In a way it's even more insidious in a democracy because
| the corruption is hidden better by one or a few layers of
| indirection. In the end however corruption and interests
| of the powerful is king.
| powerapple wrote:
| there are people thinking government should leave economy
| alone, there are people thinking central banks should use
| financial tools to control inflation and other things. China
| is not covering up, it is trying to control a crash.
| grey-area wrote:
| The lack of any reliable data specifically is a cover up,
| that is what the article is about.
| mytailorisrich wrote:
| China does not need external (as in 'foreign') investment. They
| have huge amounts of cash.
|
| The strategy seems more about decoupling and independence from
| foreign interference and potential sanctions. Likewise, when
| foreign investors leave it is also because they've seen what
| was done to Russia and thus don't want to repeat that with
| China, which would be massively more costly.
|
| Edit with data:
|
| In 2022 Chinese households accumulated $1tn in savings, just
| over that year (this is something typical in China because of
| lack of safety net and lack of investments avenues, hence also
| why everyone wants to buy property to invest their cash):
| https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/spotlights-b...
|
| China also has $3.2tn in foreign cash reserves:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign-exchange_reserves_of_C...
|
| They also use that cash as a tool of foreign policy with loans
| to foreign countries in excess of $240bn:
| https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-spent-240-bln-bailing-...
| throwaway2990 wrote:
| Is this satire?
| berserk1010 wrote:
| They do? Probably should tell the average citizens in China
| who are having trouble withdrawing cash out then
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9odXNPldCI. I think some
| banks were kind enough to tell their customers to withdraw in
| a few months. Other banks just zeroed out their customer's
| bank account.
| vbezhenar wrote:
| Potential? China is under heavy sanctions right now. They
| need to surrender or to fight. For now they chose the latter.
| peoplefromibiza wrote:
| FWIW between Blue Orca Capital LLC and China I would choose
| China all the time.
|
| They are simply trying to short China to profit, like they did
| before so many times.
|
| This is not even news: in "Regulation of platform market access
| by the United States and China: Neo-mercantilism in digital
| services" published in 2022 you can read
|
| _Since 2009, both countries have progressively restricted
| access to each other 's domestic information services markets.
| In both cases, the primary stated rationale involved national
| security claims rather than trade policy concerns_
|
| It's happening both ways.
| paganel wrote:
| > FWIW between Blue Orca Capital LLC and China I would choose
| China all the time.
|
| At least losing big money will keep them away from writing
| down lists of bad _goym_ people.
| berserk1010 wrote:
| Did China's youth jobless rate really hit 46.5%?
| https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Did-China-s-youth-j...
|
| takes into account the Chinese youth's laying flat and full time
| children movement.
| sparrowInHand wrote:
| They promised there children programming jobs and a golden
| future. But the party wants them to work in factories, just
| like dad did. They created the ilusion of upwards mobility in a
| society with no upwards mobility and burden those youngsters at
| the same time with a aging population. If you can not win, why
| even play?
| peoplefromibiza wrote:
| most probably it's exaggerated, China youth unemployment rate
| should be similar to that of my Country, Italy, which is at 22%
| officially, a couple points down unofficially (off the books
| jobs, people getting state benefits that should not get etc.
| etc.)
| jeo123 wrote:
| That is a brilliant move from China. As these investment money
| will get floodef back into western world e.g. USA and Germany
| which will prompt huge inflations. Already USA and Europe no
| longer has access to cheap Chinese manufacturing, cheap Russian
| fuels and cheap clever labors (Chinese students), you can see
| severe crippling of Western innovations in the last 18mths
| (research paper outputs dropping, Tesla couldnt build Cybertruck,
| no self drivings, university graduates output drops). This is all
| in place to target 2025-2026 invasion. Guess Xi is learning from
| Putin on preparations.
| khuey wrote:
| Yes when I think of Putin's recent invasion of Ukraine I
| definitely think that it was well planned and prepared for.
| rob74 wrote:
| > _China's restrictions on overseas access to data are driving
| investors away, according to short seller Blue Orca Capital LLC_
|
| If (big if, I know) only short sellers are complaining, that's
| probably a good thing...
| berserk1010 wrote:
| Not just. Probably why big funds are pulling out.
|
| Norway's 1.4 trillion pension fund is shutting its Shanghai
| office https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/investing/china-norway-
| fund-s...
|
| Ark invest with 9B is entirely out of China https://www.news-
| journal.com/arena/thestreet/cathie-wood-pul...
| paganel wrote:
| In the case of Norway there's most probably some geo-politics
| in play, too, as they're a NATO country. Looks bad to have
| NATO money help develop an ideological enemy.
| peoplefromibiza wrote:
| > Norway's 1.4 trillion pension fund is shutting its Shanghai
| office https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/investing/china-norway-
| fund-s...
|
| from the article
|
| _it owned shares worth about $42 billion in some 850 Chinese
| companies. Those investments will be managed in future from
| its Asia hub in Singapore, it said._
|
| _The decision to close its Shanghai office was driven by
| "operational considerations" and doesn't affect the fund's
| investments or its investment strategy in China, NBIM said in
| a statement on Thursday._
|
| > Ark invest with 9B is entirely out of China
| https://www.news-journal.com/arena/thestreet/cathie-wood-
| pul...
|
| _We recognize you are attempting to access this website from
| a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA)
| including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection
| Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at
| this time._
|
| I don't know you, but I don't trust someone who will only let
| me read a piece of information in exchange for stealing my
| personal data...
| jarym wrote:
| > I don't trust someone who will only let me read a piece
| of information in exchange for stealing my personal data
|
| Maybe they don't want to install one of those super
| annoying cookie consent dialogs. Might be nothing to do
| with stealing your personal data.
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(page generated 2023-10-23 09:00 UTC)