[HN Gopher] A climate model approximation that could change the ...
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A climate model approximation that could change the climate
movement
Author : gardenfelder
Score : 7 points
Date : 2023-10-04 20:24 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (climatewaterproject.substack.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (climatewaterproject.substack.com)
| swader999 wrote:
| The author posits that we may be worse off because deforestation.
| Yet forest cover is increasing from when models variables were
| set due to increased CO2 so perhaps the higher bounds won't be
| reached.
| gardenfelder wrote:
| >This is a story of how the 'Global Warming = Greenhouse Gases'
| narrative came to be, and an inquiry into whether the real
| climate narrative should really be
|
| 'Global Warming = Greenhouse Gases + Land Degradation affects
| Water Cycle' .
| epgui wrote:
| Nobody who works in the field believes global warming is "only"
| due to greenhouse gases... So much for the premise of the
| article.
| swader999 wrote:
| Well we should be moving on from CO2 because in this area the
| effect is nearly saturated. Doubling CO2 from it's current
| level won't have nearly the impact the previous doubling had.
| hollerith wrote:
| CO2 levels are current 1.50 times pre-industrial levels, so
| "previous doubling" is misleading.
| swader999 wrote:
| Right but it's not going to do much of anything temp wise
| from here, maybe .7C higher at worst. This is a useful tool
| to see this: https://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/
| sixbrx wrote:
| It's not the saturation at the peak absorbtion frequencies
| that is driving the warming, it's the _widening_ of the
| curves which raises absorbtion levels in nearby frequencies.
| The "saturated" argument was one of the first objections
| when the science was poorly understood. Krauss's book Physics
| of Climate CHange has a good account of this history. Check
| IPCC summaries to see how many models from the literature
| predict flattening at 0.7C additional warming if we don't
| curb emissions (spoiler alert: slim to none with many
| positing 5C or more additional warming in the 2100's if
| emissions aren't curbed).
| goatlover wrote:
| The article is about the movement around addressing climate
| change and how it's presented in public discouse, not the
| science itself.
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(page generated 2023-10-04 23:02 UTC)