[HN Gopher] A climate model approximation that could change the ...
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       A climate model approximation that could change the climate
       movement
        
       Author : gardenfelder
       Score  : 7 points
       Date   : 2023-10-04 20:24 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (climatewaterproject.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (climatewaterproject.substack.com)
        
       | swader999 wrote:
       | The author posits that we may be worse off because deforestation.
       | Yet forest cover is increasing from when models variables were
       | set due to increased CO2 so perhaps the higher bounds won't be
       | reached.
        
       | gardenfelder wrote:
       | >This is a story of how the 'Global Warming = Greenhouse Gases'
       | narrative came to be, and an inquiry into whether the real
       | climate narrative should really be
       | 
       | 'Global Warming = Greenhouse Gases + Land Degradation affects
       | Water Cycle' .
        
       | epgui wrote:
       | Nobody who works in the field believes global warming is "only"
       | due to greenhouse gases... So much for the premise of the
       | article.
        
         | swader999 wrote:
         | Well we should be moving on from CO2 because in this area the
         | effect is nearly saturated. Doubling CO2 from it's current
         | level won't have nearly the impact the previous doubling had.
        
           | hollerith wrote:
           | CO2 levels are current 1.50 times pre-industrial levels, so
           | "previous doubling" is misleading.
        
             | swader999 wrote:
             | Right but it's not going to do much of anything temp wise
             | from here, maybe .7C higher at worst. This is a useful tool
             | to see this: https://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/
        
           | sixbrx wrote:
           | It's not the saturation at the peak absorbtion frequencies
           | that is driving the warming, it's the _widening_ of the
           | curves which raises absorbtion levels in nearby frequencies.
           | The  "saturated" argument was one of the first objections
           | when the science was poorly understood. Krauss's book Physics
           | of Climate CHange has a good account of this history. Check
           | IPCC summaries to see how many models from the literature
           | predict flattening at 0.7C additional warming if we don't
           | curb emissions (spoiler alert: slim to none with many
           | positing 5C or more additional warming in the 2100's if
           | emissions aren't curbed).
        
         | goatlover wrote:
         | The article is about the movement around addressing climate
         | change and how it's presented in public discouse, not the
         | science itself.
        
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       (page generated 2023-10-04 23:02 UTC)