[HN Gopher] Update: Lumber Prices Down 11% YoY
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Update: Lumber Prices Down 11% YoY
Author : alphabettsy
Score : 65 points
Date : 2023-10-03 19:55 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.calculatedriskblog.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.calculatedriskblog.com)
| matternous wrote:
| Lumber prices seen all over the place when I search for various
| species of hardwood. Is there a standard online retailer to
| reference?
| angry_moose wrote:
| Not really because its so regionally dependent - prices can
| vary dramatically within even 100 miles. I just picked up a
| bunch of of black walnut for $12.80/bdft, but I could get it
| for around $8 if I drove a couple hours south.
| oblio wrote:
| Are these changes reflected in any downstream price changes?
| throw0101a wrote:
| Can't wait for another _Odd Lots_ podcast supply chain episode on
| lumber. Previously (make it a trilogy):
|
| * https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/why-the-price-of-lumber-has-s...
|
| * https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/stinson-dean-on-the-lumber-cr...
| bradly wrote:
| In you want to learn about the lumber industry and how the
| supply chain works I recommend this podcast:
| https://www.lumberupdate.com/
| gigel82 wrote:
| Things like plywood (for furniture) didn't come down in price yet
| to pre-pandemic levels; hoping they catch up soon.
|
| You used to be able to get 3/4 maple 4x8 for ~$50, now it's $85
| at Home Depot and over $100 from the local lumberyard.
| dugmartin wrote:
| There was a weird blip of time during the pandemic where
| cabinet grade plywood was cheaper than CDX sheathing at my
| local Home Depot. If I was building a house then it would have
| been cool to sheath it in oak veneer plywood.
| post_break wrote:
| This means my homeowners insurance will surely go down right?
| Right...? Of course not.
| pcurve wrote:
| From the same blog: vehicle sales are up 15% YoY
|
| https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/vehicles-sales-in...
|
| Not necessarily a sign of health, but playing catcup with
| hisotrical trend.
| chubs wrote:
| I'm a little concerned that the downturn in that graph coincides
| with changing from measuring one financial instrument to another.
| But i dont know enough about those instruments to know if that's
| an issue or not :)
| pnpnp wrote:
| The price of lumber also was astronomical during Covid. I think
| it's somewhat logical to expect a return to a more "normal"
| price as economics bounce back from a somewhat unprecedented
| couple years of crazy economics.
| wlesieutre wrote:
| For the unfamiliar, a "board foot" is a unit of lumber volume
| representing a square foot of board with 1 inch thickness.
|
| So an 8' long board 12" wide and 1" thick is 8 board feet. Or
| half as wide and twice as thick (6" x 2") in the same length is
| also 8 board feet. You get the idea.
| em3rgent0rdr wrote:
| metric system is so much easier: m3
| jpitz wrote:
| Metric makes the math easier, but it is much easier for me to
| relate to 40 board-feet of lumber than to 0.0944 cubic-
| meters.
| hartator wrote:
| I don't think you can have a 1m^3 of wood. Life is not
| Minecraft.
| [deleted]
| Jedd wrote:
| A foot is a (variable) measure of length.
|
| A board foot is a measure of volume - with an implicit
| third dimension.
|
| So you could just use the SI unit for volume.
|
| A board foot ~= 2.4 litres.
|
| This seems a bit silly though, as timber is not fungible in
| the way you'd expect a _volume of something_ to be.
|
| As noted by sibling comments, you very much can buy timber
| in cubic metres - a convenience for costing / transport -
| but you're not going to buy timber without knowing
| dimensions of the individual lengths.
| tinco wrote:
| If you're purchasing gross lumber here in The Netherlands
| it is definitely priced per m3. For example here:
| https://inlands-hout.nl/houtsoorten-en-prijslijst/
|
| Just like with board feet it doesn't say anything about the
| actual dimensions. Also, I don't think it's much better as
| a unit than board feet either, both have very unclear
| relationship to the actual amounts you need. You'll always
| need to do a pretty complex calculation to figure out how
| much you'd need to buy. The pricing is mostly useful as a
| comparison to look at relative or day to day pricing
| differences.
| singleshot_ wrote:
| And for what it's worth, the board foot cost of a 2x4 and
| the board foot cost of a 2x12 are wildly different.
| m463 wrote:
| I think you would need old growth for true 1m3
| mtmail wrote:
| Germany uses Euro per Festmeter as measure, a Festmeter is
| 1m^3. Trees are round of course but Festmeter is on the
| invoices and pricing tables.
| mrcode007 wrote:
| Unless you're making infinitely thin two dimensional planes
| made of wood you always get a cubic volume of wood. Always.
| No exceptions. What do you think W x L x H stand for?
| candiddevmike wrote:
| If you buy logs you probably can
| singleshot_ wrote:
| When you say one inch wide, do you mean one of the twelve
| things in a foot, or one of the two things in the width of a
| 2x4?
| yojo wrote:
| I believe you're referring to "nominal" vs "actual" size. For
| anyone who doesn't know, a 2x4 is actually ~1.5"x3.5"
|
| Dimensional lumber is the original shrinkflator
| angry_moose wrote:
| To elaborate a little more:
|
| Board thicknesses are measured in the "quarter system" - 4/4
| (pronounced "4 quarter", that is 4 quarters of an inch) is a 1"
| thick rough-rough sawn board; 8/4 (8 quarter) is a 2" thick
| rough board. As this is rough sawn (super rough and unsightly
| finish), you usually lose at least 1/8" while finishing the
| board, so a 4/4 rough board gives you something around 3/4"
| finished product.
|
| This leads to 5/4 being another fairly common dimension, as you
| can get a 1" finished board out of it. 6/4 and 12/4 are
| somewhat common as well.
|
| It might seem like an "ugly dimension" compared to something
| like m^3, but its really built around speed. Watching someone
| skilled price out an enormous stack of mismatched lumber
| (width, thickness, and length) in seconds with a lumber rule is
| always a fascinating process to watch
| (https://www.popularwoodworking.com/techniques/the-lumber-
| rul...).
|
| Usually the $/board foot increases slightly at higher
| dimensions as thicker lumber is harder to produce. I got some
| 4/4 black walnut for $12.80/bdft last week; 8/4 was closer to
| $16.
|
| Edit: This is also why 2x4s are actually 1.5"x3.5" -
| historically they were 2x4 rough sawn lumber, but .5" is lost
| in both dimension when producing finished boards you purchase
| in the store.
| somethoughts wrote:
| Always thought it'd be cool if there was some economic simulation
| game (simcity, city skylines, etc.) that was tied to real life
| commodity markets.
| m463 wrote:
| Would that make the game less fun?
|
| or would the economy be the fun part of the game, automating
| and driving down prices?
|
| I think games like factorio, the fun comes from automating and
| being less of a mental burden.
| tpmx wrote:
| The chart in the article does a nice job at illustrating that
| prices are roughly speaking back to essentially pre-pandemic
| levels after giant spikes. This seems healthy to me.
| reducesuffering wrote:
| I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities
| prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years
| ago
|
| https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
| greggsy wrote:
| Cripes what is going on with orange juice.. there's some
| seasonal patterns in the last 25 years, but the last year has
| just kept climbing.
| ramesh31 wrote:
| Climate change comes at you quick. We're well past the
| point of hypotheticals, and headed down the road to
| catastrophe.
| mcculley wrote:
| Here in Florida, citrus greening has devastated the groves.
| eth0up wrote:
| That... and grubby land grabs, cavalier/deranged
| development (Lennar), and ignorant newcomers who think
| making a subtropical keystone ecosystem conform to their
| hell of previous residence is justified by exorbitant
| checks and brutal disregard.
| reducesuffering wrote:
| Not sure. That was the lone outlier I saw too. Quick
| internet glance seems to implicate crop disease and Florida
| hurricanes dropping supplies.
| alexfoo wrote:
| tinlc
| somethoughts wrote:
| there is no lumber cartel?
| listenallyall wrote:
| Supposedly, wholesale chicken wings are lower than pre-pandemic
| prices.
|
| https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/chicken-wing-price...
|
| I've yet to find a restaurant, however, where menu prices for
| wings aren't at least 20% higher than 2019 or so -- often much
| higher. Similarly, I have a hard time believing that lower lumber
| prices will reduce new construction costs.
| curiousllama wrote:
| Retail prices are generally pretty sticky - if the wholesale
| price persists, they'll come down, but it'll take time.
| quadrifoliate wrote:
| I hope they come down -- I have reduced my restaurant spend
| considerably since restaurant (even chain) prices went up by
| 30-50% in my area compared to pre-Covid.
|
| Maybe I'm too price-conscious, but I'd expect demand to go
| down over time as the rising interest rates affect daily
| life.
| curiousllama wrote:
| Yea for sure. This is the recession & deflation folks have
| been asking for.
| [deleted]
| dessimus wrote:
| Not a lot of people are willing to work in the food service
| industry in general, nor at 2019 wages specifically, also
| rents, and real estate skyrocketed. Food costs are generally
| only about 1/3 of menu revenue, with wages and overhead being
| the other ~2/3. Profits are generally very thin in restaurants.
| makestuff wrote:
| Yeah I agree, it will make prices stay flat for a few years,
| but I highly doubt there will be a massive decrease in
| construction cost unless we see another 2008 style economic
| crisis. Although, labor shortages in the construction industry
| might make still allow prices to stay high.
| superwalker wrote:
| Labor prices for skilled labor have increased so much that
| even when you do the "how much is my time worth" calculation
| _as an overpaid engineer_ , DIY has become the only way to
| go. It's nuts, but a fun learning experience.
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