[HN Gopher] $8B Sam Bankman-Fried criminal trial starts today
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       $8B Sam Bankman-Fried criminal trial starts today
        
       Author : perihelions
       Score  : 116 points
       Date   : 2023-10-03 14:24 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
        
       | seydor wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | vkou wrote:
         | > To what extent is Sbf used as a scapegoat by the media.
         | 
         | When you've actually done a lot of crime, you're not a
         | scapegoat for the village's sins, you're an actual sinner
         | getting his just deserts.
        
         | NotYourLawyer wrote:
         | Am I so out of touch?
         | 
         | No, it's the investors who were wrong.
        
         | cobbal wrote:
         | "cheap money" isn't currently a crime, but fraud is. I can't
         | say either way about unhinged VCs.
        
         | shapefrog wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
         | itsoktocry wrote:
         | > _To what extent is Sbf used as a scapegoat by the media_
         | 
         | The guy who pretended he was running a legit exchange and hedge
         | fund, lied to lenders, spent customer's funds, acted like an
         | altruist (while laughing about it being bullshit) and made dark
         | political donations is a "scapegoat by the media"?
        
           | eastbound wrote:
           | Yes. All of those should have required proof, they are
           | required to require proof. In the normal world, it is not
           | possible to commit even 10k$ fraud without the signoff of 5
           | people, so why is a billion dollars in the hands of a
           | 26-year-old different.
        
         | mcpackieh wrote:
         | The point of scapegoats is that the scapegoat is actually
         | sinless, and the sins of others are transferred onto the goat
         | to be sacrificed. SBF is not sinless, he's getting what he
         | deserves. He will be punished for his own crimes, not for the
         | crimes of others. In no conceivable way is he a scapegoat.
         | 
         | Other exchanges run by other people also committed crimes, but
         | those crimes aren't what SBF is on trial for. He's on trial for
         | his own crimes.
        
           | shawnz wrote:
           | SBF aside, I don't think it's true that a scapegoat must be
           | sinless. Actually I think that's impossible, as the
           | expression goes "Give me six lines written by the hand of the
           | most honest man, I will find something in them which will
           | hang him". In fact I think the best scapegoats have some
           | objective fault which lets you seed the blame for them more
           | easily.
        
             | panzagl wrote:
             | Goats sin?
        
             | throw7 wrote:
             | That's more a colloquial sense, which I think imo is closer
             | to a 'fall guy'. The parent is the biblical sense.
        
             | mikestew wrote:
             | _SBF aside, I don 't think it's true that a scapegoat must
             | be sinless._
             | 
             | It's an Old Testament thing, the original meaning can
             | easily be looked up. Some take the scapegoat as a metaphor
             | for the New Testament Jesus (who is viewed as sinless by
             | most followers). Ergo, we lay the sins of the community
             | upon the innocent goat, and send him out in to the desert.
             | 
             | Regardless, I'll give you that goats can be ornery little
             | fuckers, but I don't think they do a lot of "sinning" in
             | the biblical sense.
        
               | shawnz wrote:
               | I'm aware that it's a biblical idea, but even in the
               | biblical sense, is it explicitly specified that the goat
               | being without sin is relevant to its ability to be a
               | scapegoat, aside from the fact that animals are incapable
               | of sin as far as Christians are concerned?
               | 
               | Regardless, clearly the colloquial definition is what the
               | original poster was referring to anyway, since any
               | Christian must necessarily believe that SBF along with
               | every other human alive today is subject to original sin.
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | I wouldn't call SBF a scapegoat. Lots of startups took VC money
         | and didn't go on to allegedly commit fraud. Startups' business
         | models might have been overly optimistic and VCs didn't pay
         | enough attention, but that's not really on trial, here.
        
         | hypeit wrote:
         | > _To what extent is Sbf used as a scapegoat by the media._
         | 
         | 0%, in fact 60 Minutes just did a puff piece hagiography for
         | him on Sunday:
         | 
         | https://www.cbs.com/shows/video/SLLumNQElCg4KvRF7GUbpKX8_VAJ...
        
       | matt004 wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | wmf wrote:
         | He's white enough.
        
         | outside1234 wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | matt004 wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
         | wincy wrote:
         | Having whitish skin is pretty much the only criteria for
         | whiteness in the modern world.
        
       | artursapek wrote:
       | Fun story, I was in a Telegram room with SBF once when my team at
       | another company was listing FTX data on our platform. This was
       | 2021. I asked where their headquarters was (a standard piece of
       | data we listed for each venue) and none of their team knew what
       | to say. Eventually he chimed in with "let's just go with Antigua"
       | 
       | I remember thinking wow how strange, I wonder if these guys are
       | doing sketchy shit. Little did I know.
        
       | diamondfist25 wrote:
       | I had most of my networth in FTX and it all went down with it.
       | 
       | 20 yrs of work, savings, and TSLA + NVIDIA winnings gone just
       | like that
       | 
       | It didn't make any sense what ftx was doing at the time. It's one
       | thing to steal and embezzle, it's another to rob the thing
       | wholesale from top to bottom.
       | 
       | Its almost like someone schemed all this out, just to funnel
       | people's money to politicians
       | 
       | I'm afraid we won't ever get to the truth of it, kind of like the
       | Epstein case
        
       | matt004 wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | tombert wrote:
       | I'm generally against punishment as a whole, as I don't think it
       | works generally, but considering how little responsibility SBF
       | has taken for stealing all this money I think there's a
       | reasonable chance that he'll just turn around and do the same
       | scam again if he's not thrown in jail, or at the very least
       | having the SEC monitoring every single thing he does.
       | 
       | Granted, I'm a victim of the Gemini Earn unregistered security
       | scam [1], and so maybe I cannot be an impartial judge here, but
       | SBF is kind of the only non-violent offender that I can think of
       | right now that I honestly feel should be locked up and throw away
       | the key.
       | 
       | [1] Before you give me a lecture about how I should have known
       | better and how you'd never fall for such a scam and how Gemini's
       | claims of FDIC insurance would _never_ fool anyone smart, just
       | rest assured I 've heard it from the denizens of HN and my peers.
       | I know I was stupid to have done anything with cryptocurrency,
       | and even more stupid to think that Gemini wasn't misleading
       | people about their Gemini Earn program. Just to be clear though,
       | it's not _my_ accusation to called Gemini Earn an unregistered
       | security, it 's the SEC's (https://www.sec.gov/news/press-
       | release/2023-7).
        
         | oooyay wrote:
         | IANAL but I'm curious if intent is the deciding factor. Maddoff
         | got 150 years because he knowingly operated a criminal
         | enterprise and admitted to the whole thing eventually. His sons
         | even testified against him when they found out. Maddoff went to
         | great extents to construct his criminal enterprise, operating a
         | small boiler room out of the front office.
         | 
         | If prosecutors can show that actual malice and intent were part
         | of his motive then logic would follow he'd get a Maddoff-like
         | sentence. If he's just the worlds biggest bumbling idiot that
         | people put too much faith and money in then it'd be lesser. I'm
         | not quite caught up to _when_ SBF knew he 'd started a criminal
         | enterprise versus when he was making reckless decisions.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | Consider adding corruption and large-scale fraud to your list.
         | 
         | Punishment has three purposes: deterrence, incapacitation and
         | retribution. The first two are simple. The last seems
         | irrational. Yet if you ignore it, you wind up with people
         | executing a parallel system of justice ( _i.e._ taking matters
         | into their own hands) and generally losing trust in society.
         | 
         | Within the category of crimes that maximise the need for that
         | last element, it's wide-scale actions that harm a lot of
         | people, visibly, done by a member of or someone perceived to be
         | proximate to the elite.
        
           | ajkjk wrote:
           | aside: I see "retribution" on these lists a lot and usually
           | these days it's disgarded. IMO it's discarded prematurely.
           | 
           | The sort of retribution that is like "X hurt me, so punish
           | them" is the one everybody seems to no longer believe in, and
           | that's fine. But there is another sense of retribution that I
           | think is very valuable, which is "maintaining the status quo
           | that people who commit crimes are punished for them". It's
           | not personal retribution but more of a "belief that the
           | system will handle retribution", and it is important because
           | it helps us believe that there is a legitimate criminal
           | justice system that takes care of justice for us and which we
           | can delegate justice to.
           | 
           | You alluded to this in your comment when you said "losing
           | trust in society". Mostly I just want to observe that to me
           | it feels like it deserves a separate bullet-point instead of
           | being lumped in with "retribution".
        
             | bluefishinit wrote:
             | I would rather have a belief that the system will find the
             | root causes of crime and take actions to fix them then
             | believe the system will punish those who break the rules.
             | Punishment causes damage to society beyond just the
             | individual being punished. Criminals have jobs, families
             | and relationships with people who haven't broken the law.
             | Punishment should be used sparingly as the cost to all of
             | society is high. I also believe we'd have lower crime if
             | the massive budgets currently being used on police would be
             | instead used to improve the health and welfare of high
             | crime communities.
        
               | matkoniecz wrote:
               | > I would rather have a belief that the system will find
               | the root causes of crime and take actions to fix them
               | then believe the system will punish those who break the
               | rules.
               | 
               | I prefer both
        
               | hiatus wrote:
               | > I would rather have a belief that the system will find
               | the root causes of crime and take actions to fix them
               | then believe the system will punish those who break the
               | rules. Punishment causes damage to society beyond just
               | the individual being punished.
               | 
               | In your belief it seems you discount the cost of "finding
               | the root causes of crimes and taking actions to fix them"
               | with the idea seeming to be that a greater good is
               | achieved that way than through punishment. However, you
               | fail to realize that there are very real costs to society
               | for enabling this root cause analysis, to the detriment
               | of our civil liberties. Every time you take off your
               | shoes at the airport, you are being punished for someone
               | else's crimes.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _would rather have a belief that the system will find
               | the root causes of crime and take actions to fix them
               | then believe the system will punish those who break the
               | rules_
               | 
               | I thought similarly. But these are baked into our
               | psyches. Jailing the drunk driver won't bring back the
               | dead child, but if you don't do it there will be
               | backlash. This sense is profound enough that we generally
               | celebrate people who take justice into their own hands
               | when they're denied retribution through lawful channels.
               | 
               | If I were to cite one common failure mode of the last
               | decades' criminal justice reform efforts (in America, but
               | coast to coast) it's in attempting to rationalise away
               | our social need for retribution. The key is in
               | recognising that every exercise of justice need not
               | satisfy all three facets. A remorseful defendant need not
               | be incapacitated. And a crime with no human victim need
               | not seek retribution.
        
         | simplicio wrote:
         | "we shouldn't lock people up for non-violent crimes except for
         | ones similar to the one I was a victim of" seems like kind of
         | a..limited view?
         | 
         | I don't think there's anything particular about SBF that makes
         | him more likely to re-offend (And even if he wanted to, one
         | would hope he'd have a hard time convincing folks to hand over
         | another 8 billion for him to embezzle a second time).
         | 
         | Which isn't to say that I don't think he should go to jail (he
         | definitely should!), just that I don't think he's any more jail
         | worthy then people who engage in other forms of non-violent
         | theft and/or fraud.
        
           | tombert wrote:
           | Well, I mean, that's why I admitted my bias. I do think I'd
           | have the same position even if I weren't a victim of a crypto
           | scam, but I felt it important to disclose potential conflicts
           | in what I'm saying.
           | 
           | SBF went on many podcasts and interviews, and instead of
           | showing even the slightest hint of remorse, he instead denied
           | everything, blamed everyone but himself, then pleaded
           | ignorance, all while also claiming that he probably won't be
           | charged with any crimes. I recommend looking at CoffeeZilla's
           | coverage on this.
           | 
           | We can find plenty of examples of convicted conmen that
           | manage to get funding again. Off the top of my head, the wolf
           | of Wall Street himself, Jordan Belfort, was convicted of
           | securities fraud, spent almost two years in jail, was banned
           | from any kind of stock trading, but now promotes all kind of
           | cryptocurrency and multilevel marketing scams.
        
           | fatfingerd wrote:
           | I think I would more easily be convinced that Madoff deserved
           | rehabilitation than SBF.
           | 
           | There are certain behaviors in fraudsters that make me think
           | they are psychopathic fraudsters and really incapable of
           | dealing with the world without deceit. That naturally
           | overlaps other dark triad traits that make it hard but not
           | impossible for someone to put aside deceit and allow some
           | deflation of their ego, etc.
        
           | gmerc wrote:
           | Can you say this with a straight face while seeing so many
           | people over and over pay Donald Trumps legal fees by donating
           | to the latest cause.
        
             | tombert wrote:
             | I'm not a fan of Donald Trump at all, but he's never
             | actually been _convicted_ of fraud has he?
             | 
             | I'm not disputing that he's committed fraud, but I think
             | that a lot of his followers can do a lot of mental
             | gymnastics and convince themselves that he never actually
             | did anything illegal, in no small part because he's never
             | directly been convicted.
        
               | hotpotamus wrote:
               | Isn't he banned from operating a nonprofit in New York
               | now, and didn't Trump University get a civil judgement
               | (I'm aware you might not call that a fraud conviction)
               | that disbanded it? That's just from memory - if not
               | _technically_ a criminal, he 's quite certifiably
               | crooked, but people will still throw money at him, and
               | I'll never understand people.
               | 
               | The other figure that comes to mind is Adam Nuemann (and
               | I'm not alleging anything criminal against him), but
               | apparently he just has a personality that draws VCs with
               | dumptrucks full of money like moths to a flame.
               | 
               | Clearly people just have tons of money they don't need
               | these days.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | In regards to Trump University, I think it was
               | technically settled [1]. I think in that particular case,
               | people argue he had plausible deniability because it was
               | just a bad branding deal, and that _he_ wasn 't directly
               | involved in anything crooked. I don't remember the
               | outcome the Donald J Trump foundation embezzlement
               | scandal from a few years ago, but I'm sure his followers
               | would just say NYC is a crooked liberal state and it was
               | rigged against him anyway. In fact, _because_ it 's
               | rigged against him, that's why he needs donations!
               | 
               | Just to be clear, _I_ think he 's a moron and a
               | fraudster; even if you could prove that Trump University
               | and the Donald J Trump Foundation and the hoarding of
               | classified documents and the collusion with Russia was
               | all hogwash, the fact that he didn't divest himself from
               | his businesses after assuming power should be a bright
               | red flag to people.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/federal-
               | court-a...
        
               | hotpotamus wrote:
               | Wasn't there a survey showing that his followers now
               | trust him over their religious leaders? Which I guess
               | says it all.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | He used blatantly demagogical language throughout his
               | entire campaign and presidency, and basically claimed
               | that "he alone" knows how to fix every problem.
               | 
               | I tend to be pretty far-left (at least by American
               | standards), but some of the "Bernie Or Bust" rhetoric has
               | gone a bit crazy sometimes; I don't think Bernie Sanders
               | is nearly as horrible as someone like Donald Trump (I
               | voted for him in the primary in 2016), and I certainly
               | don't think he's an outright fraudster, but I do feel
               | like he (and his followers) kind of cozy up to demagogue-
               | adjacent language as well.
               | 
               | I think people really really like the idea that one
               | magical person can and will solve all their problems.
               | 
               | But that's about as far as I'll go towards partisan
               | politics since I don't want to get hellbanned.
        
               | hotpotamus wrote:
               | I suspect we're ideologically fairly close though I did
               | not vote for Sanders in the primary, I believe I actually
               | skipped 2016 then voted for Warren 2020, but I'd have
               | been fine with Sanders though I agree he did have a
               | fanatical contingent that was a bit off-putting. I don't
               | think he actively encouraged that either.
               | 
               | I've long worked with and even dabbled a bit in sales
               | (which would have shocked a young hotpotamus to learn -
               | it's basically the opposite of my natural inclinations).
               | I was quite bad at it myself - I would often try to
               | explain nuances to people and how they need to invest in
               | their own skill as well as buying a good product.
               | Salespeople who promised them simple solutions that would
               | solve all their problems were far more successful, which
               | was a bitter early lesson for me.
               | 
               | What rankles though is that Trump is so transparently a
               | buffoon - I can't believe it works for him.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | > I would often try to explain nuances to people and how
               | they need to invest in their own skill as well as buying
               | a good product.
               | 
               | Yeah, this is (partly) why I was not a good
               | professor/teacher. I don't think I was _horrible_ at it,
               | but I have a very strong compulsion to mention every bit
               | of nuance in what I 'm talking about. Sometimes that can
               | be a good thing, but when a student is trying to learn
               | introductory programming, getting into the weeds about
               | how the textbook is "basically right but kind of
               | simplistic because in this case..." really is not the
               | right approach for teaching freshman students. I grew a
               | new respect for teachers who learned to suppress those
               | instincts and teach the simplified stuff.
               | 
               | I almost think that Trump being an idiot works to his
               | advantage. He's so utterly stupid that I think he's
               | completely unburdened by any kind of nuance, and as a
               | result it's very easy for him to speak authoritatively
               | about everything, no matter how wrong he is.
        
               | hermanradtke wrote:
               | > he's never actually been convicted of fraud has he?
               | 
               | His corporation was given the death penalty for wildly
               | overstating the value of assets.
        
               | idontpost wrote:
               | [dead]
        
         | knorker wrote:
         | Punishment, deterrence for others, and deterrence for the
         | individual themselves, are three important parts of why the
         | state has consequences for bad deeds.
         | 
         | The US is pretty punishment-heavy. As a non-US person it even
         | looks sadistic. It's "now I got you, you son of a bitch" social
         | game from "Games People Play".
         | 
         | Since you're against "punishment as a whole", I assume you by
         | "punishment" mean "I want them to suffer for what they did"?
         | 
         | Giving more than (say) 20 years to most 20-year-old murderer is
         | no different from 120, from either deterrence perspective. When
         | they're 40 they'll be a different person. 120 years of terrible
         | prison conditions does not make anyone better off, compared to
         | 20. Except for the victim's "sense of justice". But man, 20
         | years? No year more than that will bring your loved one back.
         | 
         | Anyway, I agree that we need both types of deterrence for SBF.
         | Otherwise what's to stop people counting on getting "only" 10
         | years. Steal a billion dollars, hide it in cryptocurrencies,
         | and when you get out of prison you're older, sure, but you are
         | super rich.
         | 
         | We need deterrence from him doing it again. And we need
         | deterrence for everyone like him, and everyone who would be
         | remotely involved him people like him. People need to know that
         | if you help this kind of scam, there are dire consequences.
         | Which is why his parents should face the full weight of the
         | harm they caused, to show that it will all be taken away.
         | 
         | But I don't see that as "punishment". Not in the way I think
         | you mean it.
        
           | nineplay wrote:
           | > When they're 40 they'll be a different person.
           | 
           | Is there any evidence of that?
           | 
           | I say this with sympathy as I suspect some number of violent
           | individuals have as-yet-undetected genetic abnormalities that
           | would make them 'blameless' for their actions if we could
           | track it down. However that wouldn't change their behavior.
           | My son has a non-violent known genetic abnormality and in
           | 20/40/60 years his behavior wouldn't change unless some
           | effective treatment is found.
           | 
           | So I think there needs to be some realism injected into this
           | discussion. There are people I would not want as next door
           | neighbors even after they've served a long prison sentence.
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | In addition to the other reply you got from someone else:
             | 
             | I'm not saying they'll necessarily be great people. But
             | people do change. Especially the understanding of
             | consequences is not fully developed in your early 20s.
             | 
             | So even if they are basically the same people, they would
             | be much less likely to act on it at 40 than at 20. And
             | really, we're talking about deterrence of committing
             | crimes, not deterrence of bad moral character.
        
             | mcpackieh wrote:
             | There's a lot of evidence that most people mellow out with
             | age, age-crime curves show this clearly with dramatic peaks
             | in the late teens. Teenagers and young adults are more
             | prone to acting impulsively, with less foresight for the
             | future.
             | 
             | There may be some people who are irreparably 'genetically
             | damaged' from birth and will never improve, but this isn't
             | the general case.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | I feel like most of us kind of intuitively know this at a
               | somewhat visceral level. If a two year old does something
               | obnoxious (e.g. throws food at you), I think most people
               | won't be nearly as upset as if a 40 year old did. I know
               | when my nieces or nephews do something annoying, it's
               | substantially easier for me to roll my eyes and say
               | something like "they're just kids, don't get angry with
               | them" than it is when a full-on grownup annoys me.
               | 
               | I'm quite confident that 18 year old me was still
               | basically a child. I never committed any violent crimes
               | when I was 18, but I did a lot of other dumb irrational
               | things that I don't think I'd do now.
        
           | tombert wrote:
           | > Since you're against "punishment as a whole", I assume you
           | by "punishment" mean "I want them to suffer for what they
           | did"?
           | 
           | Yeah, I clarified in a sibling comment, but that's basically
           | what it comes down to.
           | 
           | I generally just don't think punishing people with the
           | express purpose of making them suffer is a good thing. I
           | think it's cruel, and I also don't think it actually works in
           | regards to helping society long-term. The fact that it's sort
           | of common knowledge that you'll be sexually assaulted in
           | prison, and people seem bizarrely fine with that because
           | "they deserve it" really disturbs me, for example.
           | 
           | In regards to SBF specifically, I'm not convinced he won't
           | try and run a similar scam again; if not in the US, then in
           | another country with less strict securities laws. He doesn't
           | appear to have any remorse about what he's done, and blamed
           | everyone but himself for everything.
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | I agree that we have no need for vengance against the
             | criminal.
             | 
             | But the fact that SBF would do it again is not a case for
             | vengance/punishment, but for deterrence. And, frankly, it's
             | harder to launch your next scam while you're currently
             | incarcerated.
             | 
             | I hear you saying "I don't want vengance, but...", but
             | there's actually no contradiction there. You want
             | deterrence and to prevent recidivism.
             | 
             | And merely taking all his money, and all his parents money,
             | is not actually a deterrence. But that doesn't mean prison
             | is vengence/punishment for punishment's sake.
        
             | quesera wrote:
             | > _it 's sort of common knowledge that you'll be sexually
             | assaulted in prison_
             | 
             | While a blase attitude toward such abuse is certainly
             | reprehensible, I don't think there's any support for the
             | magnitude you describe.
             | 
             | Even the most dramatic statistics imply that prisoners are
             | far more likely to _not_ be assaulted.
             | 
             | Official numbers are like 2-5%, activist numbers are in the
             | 20% range.
             | 
             | Anything greater than 0% is horrifying of course. Although
             | FWIW I also checked official and activist numbers for non-
             | incarcerated males and females in the US, and it's actually
             | very similar.
             | 
             | (Never been in prison, never been a victim, never been a
             | perpetrator, not in law enforcement, not an activist, don't
             | know what I'm talking about, but wish the problem could be
             | understood honestly and eliminated completely.)
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | I suppose that's what I get for relying on common
               | knowledge.
               | 
               | If that 20% number is right, that's completely
               | terrifying. A 1 in 5 shot being sexually assaulted is
               | still very high, and when I have argued with people about
               | prison reform, they seem wholly uninterested in fixing
               | the problem.
        
           | matt004 wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
             | tigeroil wrote:
             | In what sense doesn't it work though? Because from a re-
             | offending rate it unequivocally does work.
             | 
             | In terms of preventing new crimes from being committed, I
             | think the honest answer is "it depends". I think early
             | intervention and preventing crime in the first place is
             | always going to beat punishing people for crimes after the
             | fact.
        
             | bumby wrote:
             | I don't think this type of dichotomy of thinking is
             | helpful. Given that the research seems to suggest that
             | "heavy punitive sentencing" doesn't reduce crime, I think
             | the take away is that human behavior is difficult to
             | change.
        
             | freedomben wrote:
             | What? Citation is definitely needed for that claim about
             | Scandinavia.
             | 
             | Restorative justice may not "work" for every single person
             | in every single situation but neither does punitive
             | sentencing. If you look at recidivism for whether it
             | "works" then restorative justice performs way better in the
             | majority of cases. Then we should consider the
             | moral/ethical correctness of what the justice system is and
             | what it should do.
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | But then it's not punishment for punishment's sake, but for
             | deterrence's sake.
             | 
             | I read the comment as talking about retribution, to make
             | the victim feel good, not about deterrence.
             | 
             | Are you saying you have data to show that 20 years for
             | murder has a different deterrent effect than 120 years for
             | murder?
        
         | monero-xmr wrote:
         | You are against the concept of punishment as a whole? Or just
         | for financial crimes?
         | 
         | I don't think without the threat of jail - which is society
         | taking away your time - some violent people would avoid crime.
        
           | tombert wrote:
           | I'm generally against punishment for punishment's sake;
           | obviously if a serial killer is running loose, they should be
           | locked up as a matter of making sure they don't kill more
           | people, and maybe that even applies to non-violent crimes as
           | well.
           | 
           | What I don't like is the American take [1] of locking people
           | up for years and years and then ruining their remaining lives
           | with a felony conviction making them forever unemployable,
           | all to stroke some kind of cosmic idea that we are "even" for
           | whatever they did.
           | 
           | If you look at other countries that have a much higher
           | emphasis on reformation, and less of an emphasis on
           | "punishment", they have a measurably lower recidivism rate.
           | 
           | That's basically what I'm getting at; I don't really believe
           | in "punishment" as some cosmic good, I believe in maximizing
           | safety and reformation.
           | 
           | [1] Just a disclaimer, I'm American.
        
             | mvdtnz wrote:
             | Here in New Zealand the current government came into power
             | 6 years ago with a policy of reducing the prison population
             | by 30 per cent. Not by increasing focus on prevention of
             | crime, but by locking up fewer people. They achieved this
             | target, and as a result crime - especially violent crime -
             | has skyrocketed.
             | 
             | I think you live in a sheltered little bubble. In fact we
             | know from your first post in this thread that when you're
             | personally impacted by crime you quickly change your tune,
             | much like hundreds of thousands of former NZ Labour voters.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | > In fact we know from your first post in this thread
               | that when you're personally impacted by crime you quickly
               | change your tune,
               | 
               | That's actually not what I said. I was disclosing a
               | potential bias but I never said that I "changed my tune".
               | 
               | I was mugged about two month ago and had my expensive
               | iPhone stolen out of my hands. I filed a police report
               | and reported the phone stolen to Apple, but I very
               | explicitly said that I didn't want to press any kind of
               | criminal charges on the off chance that the phone is
               | recovered and the thief was caught.
        
             | dotnet00 wrote:
             | You call it 'cosmic good', but there's nothing cosmic about
             | it, the victims are often right there in court, and it
             | isn't exactly justice if all they get for the suffering
             | that was inflicted on them is to get to see their offender
             | get some therapy and let out to live his life.
             | 
             | Eg, a rape victim is likely going to have at least mental
             | scars for much of the rest of their life, there's nothing
             | cosmic about the rapist having to suffer for at least a
             | comparable length of time for inflicting that on the
             | victim.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | I don't believe that two wrongs make a right. I also
               | don't believe the world is a video game where "suffering
               | points" are counted. I of course feel bad for any victim
               | of a violent crime like murder or rape, but I don't
               | really see how it benefits the world to have the rapist
               | "suffer at least for a comparable length of time as the
               | victim".
               | 
               | A rapist should obviously be put in jail to prevent them
               | from raping other people, so I'm not saying that they
               | should be free from consequences, but no, I don't think
               | the world is better place because we have a bureaucratic
               | reenactment of "I Spit on Your Grave".
               | 
               | Maybe in some isolated case a violent offender will feel
               | the punishment and pain they're getting and then
               | empathize and feel like they brought it on themself, but
               | I think in a vast majority of cases, the offender has
               | already rationalized what they're doing and just gets
               | increasingly mad at the system.
               | 
               | How exactly would you even measure a "comparable length
               | of time of suffering"?
        
               | pseg134 wrote:
               | I'm sure you realize how abnormal your opinion is. Most
               | people and societies disagree with you. You shouldn't
               | speak as of your ideas are inherently correct.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | I'm not sure why you are saying this. I never claimed my
               | ideas are inherently correct, I didn't try and provide a
               | syllogism or proof or anything, I just said what I
               | believe.
               | 
               | I agree they're not terribly common. That's fine if
               | people disagree.
        
               | idontpost wrote:
               | [dead]
        
             | kipchak wrote:
             | It's hard to say how effective it is but an aspect of that
             | sort of punishment is general deterrence which became more
             | common versus reformation approaches in the 80s and 90s,
             | where the intent is to increase the perceived risk of the
             | crime. I think generally more approach on reformative
             | punishment in the US would be good, but there also still
             | examples where deterrence is useful.
             | 
             | One more recent example is DUI enforcement and license
             | revocation,[1] or tax evasion jail time. The goal isn't
             | entirely to reform those who commit the crime, or keep them
             | from being able to commit further crimes, but to increase
             | the percentage of people not committing crimes by changing
             | the perceived risk to reward ratio.
             | 
             | [1]https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/809950.pdf
        
           | hypeit wrote:
           | The threat of punishment doesn't stop people from committing
           | violent crime. Even if you totally eliminated the threat of
           | prison, the actual threat of committing violent crime is that
           | someone will retaliate/defend themselves against you. If
           | you're willing to put your life on the line to rob someone,
           | whether or not you might get put in jail isn't even going to
           | register.
           | 
           | Non-violent and financial crime is a different story. SBF
           | should go to prison for life and maybe that _would_ dissuade
           | others from trying to pull of scams of this scale. Every
           | politician who accepted money from SBF should also go to
           | prison if they don 't return 100% of the money given to them.
        
             | phone8675309 wrote:
             | > SBF should go to prison for life
             | 
             | I sincerely believe in the death penalty in cases where
             | more than $1 million is stolen. Let's put the fear of god
             | into the white collar business criminals and then maybe
             | they'll rethink things.
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | I believe in linear sentencing. Set some base level. Like
               | minimum wage, multiply by 8. And for each such value add
               | day to sentence.
               | 
               | If you reach some reasonable total let's say 100 years
               | just do death penalty then.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | I'm very very broadly against the death penalty even in
               | the worst of cases, but even entertaining what you
               | suggest, I certainly think that a million is pretty low
               | to be executed for.
               | 
               | I'm not even sure how you'd fully quantify that; suppose
               | I had a flash drive with a crypto wallet worth two
               | million bucks in my backpack, and then when I get up to
               | go to the bathroom someone steals my backpack.
               | 
               | Now, technically this person stole "more than a million
               | dollars", but I don't think you'd suggest we dust off the
               | gallows just for snatching a backpack would you?
        
               | phone8675309 wrote:
               | I had hoped that it would be clear from context that I'm
               | talking about someone who commits financial fraud, not
               | just someone stealing a backpack, but if that was not
               | clear then that is on me.
               | 
               | Disagree on $1 million being a low threshold. There are
               | fraud operations out there that steal $10k from one
               | pensioner and $50K from another that in aggregate hit $1
               | million. I think everyone involved in the fraud end of
               | something like that deserves to forfeit their lives.
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | I mean, I was being deliberately obtuse on it to be fair!
               | 
               | While I could see myself getting onboard with locking
               | these fraudsters up for the rest of their lives, I think
               | our disagreement stems from the fact that I think
               | actually executing people should be reserved for
               | explicitly violent crimes, if at all. As stated, I'm
               | broadly against the death penalty in any case, but I'm
               | more amenable to it in regards as a direct means of
               | public safety from violence.
        
               | aeneasmackenzie wrote:
               | Statutes as harsh as this have been tried but were
               | repealed for unspecified reasons (Draco's laws in Athens)
               | or because juries wouldn't convict in death penalty cases
               | very often (England's Bloody Code).
        
               | tombert wrote:
               | Yeah, I think I saw in a video or something where you
               | used to be able to be hanged for forgery, which basically
               | led to no one ever being convicted of forgery because
               | people didn't feel like the punishment really fit the
               | crime.
        
             | gmerc wrote:
             | That's an awfully certain statement. I don't know man, it
             | seem likely that some people will be dissuaded from
             | pursuing non passion driven violent crime by appropriate
             | risk of punishment.
             | 
             | Sounds like a perfect solution fallacy.
        
               | hypeit wrote:
               | It's not a perfect solution but it's also not believable
               | that what's stopping people from committing violence is
               | the law and not the violence itself. If you're willing to
               | commit premeditated violence, you're already far beyond
               | the influence of the law.
               | 
               | If someone carjacks a car they are willing to accept the
               | risk that the person they're robbing may have a gun. They
               | are literally willing to put their life at risk,
               | something only someone with nothing to lose would do. Do
               | think maybe getting caught by the police and spending 10
               | years in prison is as big of a threat to this person as
               | being shot and killed (a risk they've already decided to
               | take)?
        
               | mef wrote:
               | have you considered that a person who is in a life
               | situation where turning to crime becomes a viable option
               | is perhaps underestimating the risk and negative impact
               | of either situation?
        
               | hypeit wrote:
               | In that case the threat of prison is also not a
               | deterrent.
        
               | mef wrote:
               | Or, both are deterrents but one or both can be weaker
               | than the other depending on the perceived risk by the
               | person committing the crime. Having multiple deterrents
               | should be a greater deterrent as a whole across the
               | average of potential criminals.
        
             | tombert wrote:
             | I think I more or less agree, except for this:
             | 
             | > Every politician who accepted money from SBF should also
             | go to prison if they don't return 100% of the money given
             | to them.
             | 
             | Even if they surrendered all the money given to them, and
             | lets assume they even paid interest and another fine on top
             | of that, I'm not sure they should be allowed to be
             | politicians anymore.
             | 
             | Politicians are very specifically a "trust" job. The fact
             | that they _even took_ the money signals that they were
             | receptive to bribes, and I think should signal to the
             | courts that they cannot be trusted to represent the will of
             | their voters. Just because bribes and lobbying are
             | commonplace right now doesn 't mean they should be.
        
             | mcpackieh wrote:
             | The threat of punishment is broadly ineffective at
             | preventing violent crimes that arise from inflamed tempers
             | or insanity, mental spaces in which people do not respond
             | rationally to incentives and punishments.
             | 
             | However, incarceration incapacitates convicts and prevents
             | them from being able to re-victimize the public for the
             | duration of their incarceration. Locking up serial killers
             | is a good idea, not because it dissuades other would-be
             | serial killers (it probably doesn't) but rather because a
             | serial killer who's locked up in a cell is a serial killer
             | everybody else doesn't have to worry about.
             | 
             | (Furthermore, the threat of punishment _probably does_
             | dissuade the kind of murders that might be committed in
             | 'cold blood' by rational people. For instance, it may be
             | easier for a robber to shoot everybody in the jewelry store
             | than to waste time with crowd control, but doing the
             | robbery nonviolently is incentivized by the severe
             | penalties for mass murder.)
        
               | hypeit wrote:
               | I agree that this is a more legitimate reason to put
               | people in prison, but I think it needs to be very
               | selective to be effective. Serial killers need to be
               | taken out of circulation but drug offenders do not imo.
               | Often you turn people into an even deeper life of crime
               | after removing them from society, putting them in
               | psychologically damaging situations and exposing them to
               | intensified organized crime that exists in prison. Not to
               | mention any collateral damage such as the offender's
               | family who may now also suffer and be drawn more towards
               | conditions that would breed crime.
        
               | mcpackieh wrote:
               | With nonviolent crimes, such as drug abuse and financial
               | crimes, I think the utility of incarceration depends on
               | the degree to which the criminal might still be hurting
               | society in nonviolent ways which would be prevented by
               | incarceration. Maybe drug abuse is itself a victimless
               | crime (I think there's room to disagree fwiw), in which
               | case incapacitation via incarceration wouldn't be useful.
               | 
               | But I think you can't make that claim about financial
               | criminals like Bankman-Fried or Bernie Madoff; these were
               | not victimless crimes. They victimized many people,
               | therefore putting them in prison for the rest of their
               | lives is a fairly straight forward way of making sure
               | they'll never get the opportunity to do it again.
               | 
               | > _Not to mention any collateral damage such as the
               | offender 's family who may now also suffer and be drawn
               | more towards conditions that would breed crime._
               | 
               | Particularly in the case of these two men, the damage to
               | the offenders family is completely irrelevant; their
               | families are wealthy and are probably beneficiaries of
               | the crimes anyway, so screw their feelings. And it's not
               | like Bankman-Fried has a young son that will grow up to
               | be a criminal because his daddy is in prison. Elizabeth
               | Holmes has some kids but I'm confident they'll be fine
               | with their mother in prison; their father's family has
               | plenty of resources to raise them properly. And what of
               | the children of the victims of white collar crime, who
               | will grow up poorer because their parents were scammed?
               | This 'family impact' angle of objection to imprisonment
               | for white collar crimes isn't very persuasive.
        
               | kosievdmerwe wrote:
               | I'm also starting to think that people underplay the
               | devastation financial crimes cause relative to physical
               | violence. People in a very real sense "eat money".
               | 
               | If you steal someone's life savings you've harmed them
               | way worse than just giving them a beating. And investment
               | fraudsters tend to also have a lot of victims.
               | 
               | That's never mind the physical harm that results from the
               | stress of losing your life savings, including substance
               | abuse and in extreme cases suicide.
        
               | hypeit wrote:
               | I agree, if you see up thread I said SBF should go to
               | prison for life.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | Fundamentally if you're going to have laws, and for the
               | laws to mean anything, there has to be a consequence for
               | violating them. There are maybe three ways to do this:
               | financial penalties (fines), community service or some
               | other sort of forced labor/obligations, or incarceration.
               | 
               | If you're not willing to do these things, you should just
               | do away with the law in question. Otherwise you reduce
               | the respect and confidence people have for that law, and
               | by extension all law.
        
         | jjtheblunt wrote:
         | Do you think punishment is an ineffective deterrent?
        
           | tombert wrote:
           | I do not think punishment is a good deterrent, no; I think
           | the data more or less says that as well. If you look at
           | Scandinavia, where they generally have a much higher emphasis
           | on reform instead of "punishment for punishment's sake", and
           | they also have a substantially lower recidivism rate compared
           | to the US.
           | 
           | Now obviously, I'll fully acknowledge that it's not
           | completely apples to apples; there almost certainly a million
           | differences between the US and Scandinavia that contribute to
           | differences in crime statistics, but I think it does
           | demonstrate that reducing emphasis on punishment doesn't turn
           | the world into this post apocalyptic dystopia.
        
             | throttlebody wrote:
             | You better have another look a the Swedish gang murder
             | rate, it's staggering (in Swedish terms). The world is
             | changing.....
        
               | InitialLastName wrote:
               | From [0]:
               | 
               | > More than 60 people died in shootings last year in
               | Sweden, the highest figure on record.
               | 
               | This may be a lot of people for Sweden (~0.5 death per
               | ~100K people); it's not a lot of people in the general
               | sense. Per [1], 19,000 people died from gun homicides in
               | the US in the same year (5 per 100K people). Not exactly
               | a sign that Sweden's system is failing relative to the
               | US.
               | 
               | [0] https://apnews.com/article/sweden-shooting-explosion-
               | deadlie...
               | 
               | [1] https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2023/cdc-provisional-
               | data-gun-s...
        
               | jjtheblunt wrote:
               | probably have to look at the first derivative or second
               | derivative of murders wrt time to get a sense for how
               | people perceive the change?
        
               | Kiro wrote:
               | I can assure you that every single Swede agrees that it's
               | failing. People are horrified at what's happening.
               | 
               | Anyway, bringing up Scandinavia as one unit doesn't work
               | anymore when there's such a big difference between Sweden
               | and for example Norway where restorative justice is still
               | successful.
        
       | rootusrootus wrote:
       | Can someone knowledgable chime in with the _realistic_ possible
       | penalty for SBF? The news is saying  "over 100 years" which I
       | assume has only a tenuous relationship with reality.
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | I assume that is just the journalist summing up all of the
         | possible maximum sentences as they usually do.
         | 
         | It's really hard to say. On one hand he's a privileged white
         | guy. On the other he stole from a lot of rich people. Bernie
         | Madoff was sentenced to 150 years, but in reality anything over
         | 20 was a life sentence for him. I'm kind of expecting the court
         | to throw the book at SBF simply because he was so brazen about
         | it. When you get that far out of line people want to make an
         | example out of you.
        
           | youmeantj wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
           | rsynnott wrote:
           | "Conrad Black. The first rich person to go to prison in 300
           | years."
           | 
           | But yes. If you're a rich guy, best to avoid stealing from
           | other rich people; it does seem to be one of the few things
           | that results in them going to prison.
        
         | aeneasmackenzie wrote:
         | Will Sam "Bank Fraud Man" be punished for fraud? Could go
         | either way. Adam "New Man" got away clean.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | adamnemecek wrote:
           | Adam Neumann didn't commit outright fraud.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Adam Neumann of WeWork committed fraud the smart way. He told
           | qualified investors exactly how he was going to cheat them,
           | and then got them to sign binding contracts agreeing to be
           | cheated. That was kind of slimy and cynical behavior, but it
           | wasn't a criminal offense under US federal fraud statutes.
        
         | gizmo wrote:
         | There is no realistic estimate at this point because we don't
         | know how strong the prosecutor's case is. The prosecutors might
         | even mishandle evidence and botch the case. Insider testimony
         | might not hold up to cross examination. SBF might succeed in
         | arguing that he acted in good faith throughout. There's no
         | predicting how this will play out.
         | 
         | High profile trials (Musk, Trump, OJ Simpson, Madoff) are high
         | variance in outcome.
        
         | hcks wrote:
         | Metaculus currently gives 165 months with a very flat
         | distribution https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13532/sbf-
         | prison-sentenc...
        
           | sdwr wrote:
           | (After looking at the prediction), 15 years feels very
           | reasonable. Like, it's taking away the rest of the prime of
           | his life, which is terrible, but there's still light at the
           | end of the tunnel.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | > it's taking away the rest of the prime of his life
             | 
             | Oh man, that hurts, ha! In 15 years he'll still be younger
             | than I am today. I know I'm old, but still, ouch.
        
               | artursapek wrote:
               | Just be glad you didn't spend those years in a prison
               | cell :-D
        
           | wmf wrote:
           | Of course EAs are now betting on their messiah's prison
           | sentence.
        
             | jeffreyrogers wrote:
             | I associate prediction markets with libertarian economists,
             | EAs just happen to like them too.
        
         | badrequest wrote:
         | He bamboozled as much money from rich people as he did from
         | poors, they're throwing the book at him.
        
         | Analemma_ wrote:
         | Both prosecutors and journalists tend to sum up the maximum
         | sentence for each charge as though these are served serially,
         | when in reality they're usually served in parallel. In this
         | case I'd put the 95% confidence bracket at 12-20 years.
        
           | spiderice wrote:
           | Why such high confidence? Especially when Madoff got 150
           | years. Just because of the difference in scale?
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | Can't speak for GP, but I recall that Elizabeth Holmes had
             | a fairly high prediction, even by people who were using the
             | federal guidelines. More than a few people with plausible
             | explanations said she'd be looking at life. But she got
             | about 10 years.
        
         | serjester wrote:
         | Martin Shkreli (also went through the New York district court)
         | put together a pretty informative video on it.
         | 
         | It's pretty cut and dry - he's looking at about 45 points on
         | the sentencing table. Not too long ago these were mandatory
         | guidelines and as a result he'd be looking at life in prison.
         | 
         | Now a days these are recommendations and since he got pretty
         | lucky with the judge they'll likely discount it 50ish %. So
         | realistically he's looking at 20 years and with good behaviour
         | he'll be out in 10.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ivqzyjfHG0
        
           | mandevil wrote:
           | It is very difficult to get out of a federal sentence without
           | serving at least 85% of it. That's with good-behavior
           | credits.
        
           | wanderingstan wrote:
           | I believe these are Federal charges, so there is no parole,
           | thus no big reduction for good behavior. (Federal parole was
           | eliminated in the 1980s)
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | Bernie Madoff got 150 years for various crimes related to his
         | ponzi scheme.
        
         | perihelions wrote:
         | Every competent lawyer I've seen interviewed in newspapers
         | hedges with something like "it's hard to predict / lots of
         | potential factors". One thing's clear, is that the scale of
         | SBF's crimes max out the offense level of the federal
         | sentencing guidelines. So there's no _upper limit_ to the
         | sentence: it 's rather a question of how many mitigating
         | factors can be found to push things downwards.
         | 
         | e.g.
         | 
         | https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/sam-bankman-fried-could-face...
        
         | thucydides wrote:
         | Over 100 years is entirely possible in this case. Under the
         | Federal Sentencing Guidelines and precedent in the 2nd Circuit,
         | the recommended total sentence will be stacked consecutively
         | because SBF's "offense level" counsels life in prison. Here's
         | the calculation.
         | 
         | A. Max sentence:
         | 
         | Wire fraud on customers (20 years max) + conspiracy to commit
         | same (20) + wire fraud on Alameda lenders (20) + conspiracy for
         | same (20) + conspiracy securities fraud on FTX investors (20) +
         | conspiracy commodities fraud (25) + conspiracy money laundering
         | (20).
         | 
         | 145 years total possible
         | 
         | B. Determine SBF's offense level under the Federal Sentencing
         | Guidelines, SS2B1.1 (fraud): See
         | https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manu...
         | and Ctrl+F for "2B1.1" to ride along:
         | 
         | Base offense level (7 levels) + Greater than $550,000,000 loss
         | (30 levels) + Resulted in substantial financial hardship to 25
         | or more victims (6 levels) + Offense otherwise involved
         | sophisticated means (2 levels) + Defendant derived more than
         | $1mm in gross receipts from one or more financial institutions
         | (2 levels, maximum, due to a cap from earlier calculation) +
         | Violation of securities / commodities law and defendant was
         | "associated with a broker or dealer" or officer/director of a
         | "futures commission merchant" (4 levels)
         | 
         | 51 levels
         | 
         | C. Determine the Guideline sentencing range. See
         | https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manu...
         | 
         | x axis: no criminal history. y axis, we calculated 51 levels.
         | 
         | The Guidelines therefore counsel life in prison.
         | 
         | D. Calculate sentence
         | 
         | The maximum sentence for each count is between 20-25 years.
         | Under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines SS 5G1.2(d) and Second
         | Circuit precedent, sentences will be stacked consecutively "to
         | produce a combined sentence equal to the total punishment."
         | United States v. Evans, 352 F.3d 65 (2d Cir. 2003). In our
         | scenario, that would be 145 years. This is the same legal
         | reasoning used in stacking Bernie Madoff's sentences in the
         | same federal district court, by the way.
         | 
         | E. Judge chooses sentence. He can depart downward from the
         | Guidelines
         | 
         | Appeals courts are deferential to trial court choices in
         | sentencing, so Judge Kaplan will have substantial latitude in
         | choosing a sentence. That said, a judge may not be too
         | favorably disposed to a defendant who stole billions of dollars
         | from over 1 million customers, most of whom were ordinary
         | people; who used Tom Brady, Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, Shaq, and
         | Larry David as unwitting pawns; who advertised his scam in the
         | Super Bowl and splashed its name on an arena; who used customer
         | money to buy lavish real estate in the Bahamas, purchase favor
         | from politicians, and make reckless leveraged bets
        
           | vkou wrote:
           | > C. Determine the Guideline sentencing range. See
           | https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-
           | manu...
           | 
           | Given that half of the chart is taken up by >75-year
           | sentences, with some of them in the 200s and 300s, before
           | hitting life, federal prosecutors seem to be a lot more
           | confident in the miracles possible in the federal prison
           | medical system than I am.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | kosievdmerwe wrote:
             | The unit is months not years (as I also thought until I
             | watched Shkreli's video.)
        
         | didntknowya wrote:
         | really depends more on how many poor people he affected (slap
         | on the wrist) vs rich people (longer jail time)
        
         | jcranmer wrote:
         | You can plug facts of the case into a sentencing calculator
         | like https://www.sentencing.us/ to estimate sentencing
         | guidelines. Sentencing guidelines generally work by look at
         | each offense, compute an "offense level" based on facts of that
         | offense, take the maximum of all offenses [1], and then combine
         | that with a criminal history to yield a range.
         | 
         | I don't know enough of the details to plug it in to get an
         | accurate estimate, but I'm pretty sure he managed to hit the
         | maximum fraud offense level, at which point I'm getting an
         | offense level of 40, which for a first time offender, is 24-30
         | years. Which is high enough that other factors (such as maximum
         | sentences for crimes) are going to come into play, but it does
         | strongly suggest that realistic prison time is going to be
         | involve decades.
         | 
         | [1] This isn't entirely accurate, but maximum is a more
         | accurate estimate than adding them all up. You actually group
         | offenses by relatedness, and max within groups and sum the
         | various groups, but for most practical purposes, there's only
         | one group of offenses.
        
       | rurcliped wrote:
       | Suppose you have office space in the jail, and give him (or
       | anyone else) the opportunity to apply for remote jobs at anyplace
       | willing to hire him - with the caveat that he loses office access
       | unless he demonstrates that he's maximizing his potential to earn
       | money, all of which will go directly to compensating victims.
       | (Assume that he can't have Zoom calls with arbitrary colleagues
       | of his choice. He can only have Zoom calls with Bill Lumbergh.)
        
       | chollida1 wrote:
       | One thing that the financial press is looking at is where the
       | courts draw the line between incompetence and outright fraud.
       | 
       | Everyone agrees that FTX funneled money from FTX customers
       | accounts to Alemada. The government is claiming this is fraud,
       | SBF is claiming it was just allowing Alemeda to have more
       | leverage than other clients.
       | 
       | Everyone agrees that FTX gave SBF's parents $30M in real estate.
       | The government is claiming this was fraud, SBF is claiming that
       | it was just payment for work done by his parents for FTX.
       | 
       | Everyone agrees that a large part of Alemeda's balance sheet were
       | coins that only had value because they held almost all of them
       | and only they transacted in them, thereby allowing them to keep
       | the price high. The government claims this is accounting fraud
       | and SBF claims this was just a bad marking of their price.
       | 
       | Everyone agrees that FTX bought around $100 million in Bahamian
       | realestate. The government says this was stealing from FTX's
       | customers, while SBF is claiming this was just to house FTX
       | employees.
       | 
       | Everyone agrees that FTX paid $100's of millions to celebrity
       | endorsers and arena naming deals. The government claims the
       | source of these funds were customers money. SBF claims that both
       | FTX's own cash and customers funds were just one big pool that he
       | just didn't have enough accounting and risk management rules
       | enforced on that large pool of resources to know that FTX ran out
       | of money and he was using customers funds to buy things.
       | 
       | I'm not an expert in case law but one thing that stand out to me
       | is just how many of SBF's "friends" and partners have fully
       | turned on him and will testify against him. Caroline Ellison, the
       | CEO of Alameda, Gary Wang, the CTO of FTX and Nishad Singh, FTX'
       | engineering director have all signed cooperation agreements.
       | 
       | Also rumours are that SBF will testify, which short of Trump
       | testifying , seems like the worst possible person to take the
       | stand.
       | 
       | The winners in this will be the bankruptcy lawyers and people who
       | had cash on had to buy FTX customer claims for 20-30% on the
       | dollar. I think funds that had the forsight to buy these claims
       | and create a side car for their investment will do very well.
       | 
       | The yield on this trade though will be determined mostly by the
       | recovery rate and probably more so by the time it takes the
       | lawyers to pay out claims as I've never met a bankruptcy lawyer
       | who was in a hurry to part with the cash and lucrative billing
       | rates they make.
       | 
       | One other thing i'm watching but not related to the trials is how
       | far back FTX's bankruptcy lawyers go after people who withdrew
       | money from FTX.
       | 
       | With Maddoff the bankruptcy lawyers went after anyone who took
       | money out going back many years. Supposedly there were a few
       | larger hedge funds who took money out of FTX weeks before it went
       | under and stopped withdrawls. There is plenty of precedence for
       | the trustees to go after those funds to ask for the withdrawls
       | back.
        
         | saghm wrote:
         | Even if it all just was extraordinary incompetence, it doesn't
         | seem like it would set a good precedent for that to be a
         | successful defense. If this works, it seems like we'd see a lot
         | more places purposely accounting for things poorly because
         | there's a precedent that they can get away with it by saying
         | they didn't know any better...
        
           | taeric wrote:
           | As soon as you add "purposely" to the mix, you clearly moved
           | over into fraud...
           | 
           | I think you are ultimately correct that extraordinary
           | incompetence would still be some crime. Question does seem
           | legitimate that it isn't necessarily fraud?
        
             | saghm wrote:
             | My point is that if accidental incompetence is allowed but
             | purposeful incompetence isn't, it becomes makes it a goal
             | to try to seem genuinely incompetent, which seems like a
             | bad thing
        
               | taeric wrote:
               | I can kind of see the hazard, if I squint. But that would
               | still be a crime, in a lot of cases. And if you look
               | incompetent, there are serious questions to ask on why
               | you are getting backing.
               | 
               | Consider, if a bus system lets a genuinely incompetent
               | driver on the street, there are all sorts of fines they
               | will face. Rightfully so. Same for a hospital that has a
               | genuinely incompetent doctor.
               | 
               | Now, if you are incompetent at things that are not your
               | core competency, things are different. But, in general,
               | incompetency at the level we are looking at here should
               | raise as many questions on why so many others ignored red
               | flags.
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | Manslaughter is not murder, but it's still a crime.
             | Executives are often held to the "knew or should have
             | known" standard. So, yes, in his position, extraordinary
             | incompetence is still a crime.
        
           | lancesells wrote:
           | Before I really knew who this person was I remember him
           | making news by being on a podcast basically saying it's all
           | made up and a ponzi scheme. I could be remembering it wrong
           | but everything I've read since then seems criminal.
        
             | tekla wrote:
             | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-25/sam-
             | bankm...
        
             | wmf wrote:
             | https://archive.ph/fGLat#40%
        
         | klenwell wrote:
         | > Everyone agrees that FTX paid $100's of millions to celebrity
         | endorsers and arena naming deals.
         | 
         | Don't forget the fortune cookies. I know that I and some others
         | on HN (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33599123) never
         | will.
        
         | lbwtaylor wrote:
         | I think this is an interesting analysis. My speculation is that
         | the evidence will show much more intent than expected. I think
         | the cooperation agreements are reflective of that and suggest
         | those folks knew what they were doing wasn't right.
         | 
         | Edit: I am skeptical that that significant money will be
         | recovered. Madoff ran a rather simple scheme where he skimmed
         | money for himself and to pay earlier investors. I don't believe
         | he actually lost that much money, just never made anywhere near
         | the paper returns. I think FTX actually lost a lot of real
         | money, but I am not that close to the facts.
        
         | PumpkinSpice wrote:
         | You see a lot of "knew or should have known" in indictments of
         | professionals who do sketchy things. I don't think you can hide
         | behind gross incompetence in situations like that.
        
         | blitzar wrote:
         | One other thing I'm watching is for someone to ask where Former
         | Alameda CEO Samuel Trabucco is.
        
         | mongol wrote:
         | Why is it bad to testify in your own case? I have heard this
         | from time to time but have not understood it. Is it not your
         | chance to tell it like it is?
        
           | recursivecaveat wrote:
           | In general it's hard for the prosecution to bring up evidence
           | of prior, unrelated convictions or wrongdoing. If you take
           | the stand they are allowed to bring it up to impune your
           | credibility as a witness though. Doesn't really apply to SBF,
           | but it's an additional reason to those others have stated for
           | anybody with a criminal past.
        
           | rconti wrote:
           | The burden of proof is on the prosecution. If they can't
           | prove that you did something wrong, you are more likely to
           | get off.
           | 
           | Your lawyers can poke holes in the prosecution's case ("cast
           | doubt" on it). Make it look like a weak case.
           | 
           | Getting on the stand and explaining an alternate timeline
           | actually give the prosecution MORE evidence, from the horse's
           | mouth. They can find new things you did wrong, they can find
           | inconsistencies in your story, inconsistencies between what
           | you said today and what you said last week. You're likely to
           | commit perjury.
           | 
           | You're not expected to convince the jury of an alternate
           | timeline, you just need them to NOT believe the very specific
           | one the prosecution lays out.
        
             | shapefrog wrote:
             | It is a bit like the "Don't Talk to the Police" meme
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36371237
        
           | achenet wrote:
           | If you're not very charismatic, or rather, very not
           | charismatic, you can undermine your own defense.
        
             | outside1234 wrote:
             | Also the prosecution then has the ability to rain questions
             | on you.
             | 
             | When you are super guilty, that typically doesn't go well.
        
               | SAI_Peregrinus wrote:
               | Yep. They _will_ ask some questions they can prove the
               | answers to, and those will usually be the ones that
               | implicate you. If you lie, they 'll call all your other
               | testimony into question, as well as get you at least one
               | perjury charge! If you don't lie, you admitted to the
               | crime you committed, and could have saved a lot of hassle
               | by pleading guilty to begin with. If you plead the 5th,
               | it's officially the same as if you'd never testified to
               | begin with, but juries may still be biased to see that as
               | you attempting to hide something you're guilty about.
               | Better to avoid testifying at all.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | wmf wrote:
           | It's bad for SBF to testify because he's such a weird person.
           | If he can't present himself sympathetically the jury may
           | interpret that as lack of remorse.
        
             | kosievdmerwe wrote:
             | Yeah it'd be a very bad idea for him to get up on the
             | stand, but I'm putting large odds on it happening despite
             | his lawyers' warnings.
             | 
             | But who knows, maybe having his bail revoked gave him some
             | perspective of how seriously he should take this and that
             | he isn't a legal genius.
        
           | taeric wrote:
           | My understanding is that, in general, you don't want to
           | testify period. Even just being called as a witness is a
           | difficult thing to do, as you are entering an arena that you
           | are almost certainly not practiced at. You will slip up and
           | say some things wrong. And you will have a hard time keeping
           | your composure and actually connecting with the attorneys,
           | judge, and jury.
           | 
           | For a witness, this really just means more stress than you
           | were likely expecting going into the process. For someone
           | actually involved in the trial, I imagine it is everything
           | multiplied.
        
         | grey-area wrote:
         | The choice is not between incompetence and fraud, much as SBF
         | would like you to think so.
         | 
         | A company giving money to the parents of the owner is fraud.
         | 
         | A company giving money to another company owned by the owner
         | when not in their interests to do so is fraud.
         | 
         | A company giving customer funds out as loans is fraud.
         | 
         | Incompetence is not an excuse and never has been, just as
         | ignorance of the law is not an excuse.
        
           | chollida1 wrote:
           | Most of what you wrote, I agree with but this is wrong
           | 
           | > A company giving customer funds out as loans is fraud.
           | 
           | No, this alone is no where near enough for fraud.
           | 
           | Banks do this all the time. So does anyone company that
           | issues gift cards.
        
             | grey-area wrote:
             | They're not supposed to co-mingle client money and company
             | money. They did that with no controls and used it for all
             | sorts of things without the permission of their clients,
             | who thought it was invested in very specific assets. They
             | are an exchange letting people buy crypto assets.
             | 
             | Not sure on the rules for banks but FTX was not a regulated
             | bank!
        
             | kpaxstaxes wrote:
             | This is absolutely fraud.
             | 
             | FTX was not a bank, it was an exchange. People were not
             | giving FTX money to lend out to others in exchange for
             | interest (as they would a bank). People were buying
             | products (cryptocurrencies) from FTX that FTX agreed to
             | hold on their behalf. FTX doing anything with these assets
             | other than holding them on behalf of customers is fraud.
             | 
             | FTX's own Terms of Service explicitly said it was not
             | permitted to lend out customer funds.
             | 
             | SBF himself repeatedly stated that FTX did not lend out
             | customer funds.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _People were not giving FTX money to lend out to others
               | in exchange for interest_
               | 
               | Depending on state law, if you put down a deposit for
               | _e.g._ flowers, the florist is free to spend the cash
               | however they see fit, including loaning it out to
               | someone. Lending customer funds _per se_ does not prove
               | fraud. Bankman-Fried lying about it does.
        
               | mvdtnz wrote:
               | Sorry, was FTX a florist? I'm confused by your remark.
               | Can you show some evidence that FTX was selling flowers,
               | and that they had been using customer deposits for
               | flowers on business expenses?
        
               | quadcore wrote:
               | _Bankman-Fried lying about it does._
               | 
               | Which I understand as, it's gota be determined the extent
               | of the lying to determine the extent of the fraud ; some
               | you-didnt-read-the-contract-well-enough responsability
               | may incumb on the customer(s).
               | 
               |  _holding assets on their customers ' behalf_
               | 
               | Who said he was, him?
               | 
               | Of course Im playing devil's advocate here to illustrate
               | the logic of the law as presented by our friend here.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | It's an analogy. Lending out--or even spending on working
               | capital--customer deposits isn't necessarily illegal. The
               | context is what makes it fraud or business as usual.
        
               | mvdtnz wrote:
               | And the context is that FTX is not taking deposits for
               | flowers, they are purchasing and holding assets on their
               | customers' behalf, so your florist analogy makes
               | absolutely no sense.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _they are purchasing and holding assets on their
               | customers ' behalf, so your florist analogy makes
               | absolutely no sense_
               | 
               | No, they were accepting customers' cash in exchange for
               | something undefined. Crypto being unregulated, we can
               | conclusively say that something was _not_ "purchasing and
               | holding assets on their customers' behalf."
               | 
               | FTX is, in many respects, more like a florist than a
               | financial firm. Certainly for purposes of this case. (My
               | florist's books are better organized.)
        
           | bumby wrote:
           | The law makes a distinction between "misrepresentation of
           | material fact" and fraud, though. Fraud means knowingly
           | making a misrepresentation of material fact.
        
             | grey-area wrote:
             | Something like pretending your parents were employees for
             | example?
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | It depends on the specifics. If they are listed on
               | payroll, that might be not be neither a misrepresentation
               | or fraud. If you had good reason to believe they were
               | hired, but weren't, I'd imagine that would land as an
               | honest misrepresentation. If you knowingly "pretended"
               | they were employees but they weren't, that's probably
               | closer to fraud.
               | 
               | Do you know the particulars in this case? It doesn't look
               | like the article covers that specific aspect and I'm not
               | terribly familiar with this case.
        
           | shapefrog wrote:
           | None of these things are fraud - ignorance of the law is not
           | an excuse.
        
           | theGnuMe wrote:
           | "A company giving customer funds out as loans is fraud."
           | 
           | This is what banks do though, no?
        
             | wmf wrote:
             | Banks are fractional reserve but brokers like FTX are full
             | reserve.
        
               | shapefrog wrote:
               | > brokers like FTX
               | 
               | FTX (excluding FTX USA co) were unregulated - they were
               | not a bank or broker just a plain old LLC.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | Banks have to follow various rules when they do it, and if
             | they don't follow them, executives go to prison.
        
             | mvdtnz wrote:
             | Was FTX a bank? Can you show marketing materials or any
             | documentation indicating that FTX was a bank?
        
       | Biologist123 wrote:
       | I've really come to doubt human ability to exercise free will in
       | all but the rarest of cases. I wonder if SBF really had a moment
       | where a stop/go decision was meaningfully available to him. If
       | we're all automatons, what's the point of prison?
       | 
       | I've been reading Michael Lewis' account of SBF: he genuinely
       | sounds unhinged.
        
         | kryptiskt wrote:
         | We're even less kind to malfunctioning machinery than bad
         | humans, so I don't think being treated as an automaton sounds
         | like a desirable outcome for a criminal.
        
         | timfsu wrote:
         | Are you saying you don't think deterrence works? I am curious
         | what you're learning about SBF though.
        
         | jabroni_salad wrote:
         | I don't think the courts recognize determinism.
         | 
         | It sucks that once you are in too deep, it's hard to stop, but
         | you always had the option not to take the first step.
        
         | strangattractor wrote:
         | Wouldn't being "automatons" be a good argument for prisons? If
         | people's behavior is automatic then removing them from the rest
         | of us seems like the only solution. If you believe in
         | redemption, rehabilitation and change then a complicated system
         | like we have seems inevitable.
         | 
         | Sorry I've been binging "Inside the Worlds Toughest Prisons"
         | 
         | https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6322264/
        
         | austinprete wrote:
         | If we're all automatons, there's no _point_ in prison, but it
         | also doesn't matter.
         | 
         | It's just something we (automatically) place certain people in
         | so they don't (automatically) perform actions that society as a
         | whole (automatically) disagrees with.
         | 
         | But there's no point arguing it because in your hypothetical
         | free will-less world we don't have a choice in the matter. But
         | also we might argue it anyway because we don't have a choice
         | not to :)
        
         | bloppe wrote:
         | It really doesn't matter if free will exists (however you want
         | to define it). Harming others for personal gain must be
         | punished, otherwise society breaks down.
        
       | rendall wrote:
       | Patrick Boyle lays out the evidence that SBF's parents were
       | intimately involved in the scam and likely attempted to hide
       | assets. If true, they should be tried as well:
       | https://youtu.be/gLvOT2AldwM?si=QCQv4j1VUrDX_cyf
        
         | greenyoda wrote:
         | Thanks, this was a very good analysis of the roles of SBF's
         | parents.
         | 
         | Here's a direct link to the FTX debtors complaint against the
         | parents (PDF):
         | 
         | https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.deb.188...
         | 
         | The Preliminary Statement begins with:
         | 
         | > _This action seeks to recover millions of dollars in
         | fraudulently transferred and misappropriated funds from the
         | parents of FTX Founder Samuel Bankman-Fried ("Bankman- Fried"):
         | his father, Defendant Allan Joseph Bankman ("Bankman"), and his
         | mother, Defendant Barbara Fried ("Fried"). As Bankman-Fried's
         | parents, Bankman and Fried exploited their access and influence
         | within the FTX enterprise to enrich themselves, directly and
         | indirectly, by millions of dollars, and knowingly at the
         | expense of the debtors in these Chapter 11 Cases (the "Debtors"
         | or the "FTX Group") and their creditors._
        
         | 3327 wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | amanj41 wrote:
         | The email from Sam's dad to Sam whining about his 200k salary
         | was disturbing. It's no surprise that Sam ended up the way he
         | did
        
           | 71a54xd wrote:
           | His brother briefly worked at Jane Street. Right out of
           | college he made $300k, next year $600k - his bosses liked his
           | perf and said he'd be on track to make $5-7M per year if he
           | stayed on for another 2-4 years.
           | 
           | Supposedly he still felt inadequate and hated his life...
        
             | nequo wrote:
             | Those numbers are surprising. Do you have a source for
             | them?
        
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