[HN Gopher] Germans shrug off economic gloom at booming Oktoberfest
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Germans shrug off economic gloom at booming Oktoberfest
Author : pg_1234
Score : 53 points
Date : 2023-10-01 14:52 UTC (8 hours ago)
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| shikshake wrote:
| I had no idea the economy was like that in Germany. I've recently
| been considering moving there from the US so it's kind of a
| bummer to learn this.
| angra_mainyu wrote:
| I'd wait a bit, at least until end of Q1 2024 to see which
| place makes the most sense socioeconomically.
|
| That said, I strongly recommend the Balkans (e.g: Serbia,
| Montenegro, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) if you have a remote
| source of income: very safe, great people, fantastic culture,
| in the big cities English is widely spoken, low cost-of-living,
| active tech communities, and you're usually surrounded by tons
| of beautiful nature and again, some of the best people ever.
|
| Not to mention, setting up your own company usually allows you
| to operate in a low tax/tax-optimized fashion.
|
| For what it's worth, I've lived all over Europe (including
| Germany) and the Balkans really must be the best place in
| Europe - as long as you're earning remotely, local wages are
| unfortunately ridiculously low.
| great_psy wrote:
| Regarding the Balkans ...
|
| Low cost of living in some regards ... housing for example
| compared to most western countries.
|
| But higher cost of living in others ... price of gas for
| example... it's close to 1.75$ per litere.
|
| Food in the big cities is slightly cheaper, but not that much
| cheaper than the west. Around 40-50$ per person at the
| restaurant.
|
| Food is much cheaper in the smaller towns, but most people
| from the west are unlikely to want to live there. Gas the
| same, housing is basically free, but there's a reason for it.
| coolThingsFirst wrote:
| Food is significantly cheaper as is rent.
|
| Westerners are unlikely to want to live there because
| they've never even visited it so that's not an argument
| against. The Balkans is sunny, taxes are low. I'd take that
| any day over subzero Northern Germany.
|
| 40-50$ per person in a restaurant is a flat out lie so I'm
| not gonna even bother with that.
|
| According to you it's much better to live in a 2m^2
| apartment in Paris than in Balkans. I'd take the Balkans
| any day.
| random_kris wrote:
| The 40-50$ is not a lie.
|
| A good quality meal with some wine and dessert will cost
| you +40$ for sure
| badpun wrote:
| > The Balkans is sunny, taxes are low. I'd take that any
| day over subzero Northern Germany.
|
| Isn't the weather still not great during the winter
| months? I don't care if it's 0 C or +8 C, both make me
| not want to go out.
| coolThingsFirst wrote:
| If you like sun it is, we get tons of sun.
| angra_mainyu wrote:
| The Croatian coast doesn't get too cold (usually).
| paganel wrote:
| > 40-50$ per person in a restaurant is a flat out lie so
| I'm not gonna even bother with that.
|
| Unfortunately things here in Bucharest are pretty much
| getting there, maybe not in the range of 40-50$ per
| person but most definitely in the 35-40$ range, and I'm
| talking a regular restaurant. Before the pandemic I'd say
| that that price was in the 20-25$ range.
|
| Though I can see how prices in cities like Belgrade,
| Sofia or Skopje might still be lower, as even Athens is
| now cheaper than Bucharest when it comes to eating out
| (I've experienced that myself recently), in which case
| enjoy it while it still lasts.
| ebalit wrote:
| That's more expensive than Paris. Well it depends the
| type of restaurant of course. Would you have some
| examples in Bucharest?
| paganel wrote:
| A mom-and-pop German restaurant near me [1] where for
| Bavarian Weisswurst, a cabbage salad, some "peasant
| potatoes" (I don't know the official name) and a non-
| filtered beer I paid about 30 euros when I went there
| about a month ago. Had I also ordered a soup, or a second
| bear, I could have easily gone into the 35-40 euros
| range.
|
| [1] I highly recommend it, it's the real deal when it
| comes to eating honest German food in Bucharest https://w
| ww.google.com/maps/place/Die+Deutsche+Kneipe/@44.45...
| tannhaeuser wrote:
| > _Had I also ordered [...] a second bear_
|
| Hopefully they have doggy bags?
| qwytw wrote:
| > Food is significantly cheaper
|
| Only when eating out (if you're comparing to Northern
| Germany).
| coolThingsFirst wrote:
| That's interesting, I didn't know that.
|
| How much is the rent for a studio in Northern Germany?
| tannhaeuser wrote:
| Impossible to tell without further qualification. Hamburg
| (Germany's second largest city after Berlin) is expensive
| though still cheaper than Munich, other cities with
| universities such as Bremen, Kiel, etc. aren't cheap but
| bearable, countryside places are relatively cheap,
| seaside places OTOH can be expensive or outright
| unaffordable (Sylt and other North Sea islands/places),
| remote places in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern can be really
| cheap but not around Schwerin and at places near Hamburg.
| Also, energy costs need to be considered.
|
| And Munich is not a shithole but a fantastic place to
| stay at in the summer - less so in winter unless you can
| go skiing in nearby Alps IME and especially not during
| Oktoberfest.
| angra_mainyu wrote:
| Basically this.
|
| The price of a shitty room in a coloc (not even in paris)
| gets you an actual 2/3 bedroom apartment.
|
| Taxes are, as you say, very low in comparison. The usual
| min wage + dividends can get you an effective tax rate of
| about 9% (depending on the country).
| OfSanguineFire wrote:
| I am baffled by your claim that restaurant prices are
| $40-50 per person. Except in Romania where dining out has
| surged in price, or in coastal ripoff Montenegro or
| Croatia, I would be hard pressed to spend more than about
| $20-25 per person in Serbia, Macedonia, Kosovo, or Albania
| for dinner. (I have no recent Bulgarian experience.) Do you
| eat at those few places for the local upper class, or order
| expensive wine or spirits with meals?
| [deleted]
| konschubert wrote:
| Serbia is preparing to invade Kosovo:
|
| https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/09/30/europe/kosovo-tensions-
| mi...
| angra_mainyu wrote:
| I follow the news closely as I'm in the area, nothing's
| going to happen aside from the usual posturing, Serbia's in
| no rush to be once again on the sharp end of NATO's pointy
| stick.
|
| Even Vucic made it clear:
| https://www.koha.net/en/arboretum/393870/Serbia-will-not-
| bri...
| qwytw wrote:
| > you're usually surrounded by tons of beautiful nature and
| again
|
| Also very high pollutions levels:
|
| https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jan-
| Horalek/publication...
| gumballindie wrote:
| This is a real issue throughout europe, particularity in
| east europe, where germany has been dumping highly
| polluting cars for decades sometimes even by threatening
| countries that tried blocking it, as is always the case
| with german eu politics, using the might of eu fines and
| sanctions.
| OfSanguineFire wrote:
| That map specifically talks of urban air quality. Foreign
| visitors hanging out among "beautiful nature" are, well,
| out in nature, not dense urban environments. Especially in
| the summer when the lowlands are baking, it is popular for
| foreign remote workers to head up to mountain resort towns
| that don't have a lot of air pollution because they don't
| have a lot of cars in the area.
| qwytw wrote:
| According to this one which shows (PM2.5 instead of PM10
| though) county level data it's still pretty bad even in
| remote areas
|
| https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-
| interactive/2023/...
|
| Especially compared to some more remote areas in Western
| Europe like the Alps or the Massif Central in France.
| Which would suggest that emissions from cars are not the
| main reasons why the Balkans (and Eastern Europe is
| general) are doing so bad.
| OfSanguineFire wrote:
| Air pollution in rural areas in the Western Balkans is,
| besides vehicles, largely a function of burning wood for
| heating. For example, look at Korce in Albania, which is
| a black spot on your linked map (very high pollution):
| this surely reflects in part the burning of wood in
| November-April by nearly the entire town, because it is
| cold at 800 m, but they do not have access to gas
| heating, and electric heating is expensive. Again,
| because the trend is mainly to go up to the mountains in
| the summer months, when the locals are not running their
| wood stoves, foreign remote workers avoid the worst of
| that.
| Moldoteck wrote:
| There are problems in balkans. In Romania, hospitals are just
| sh**, same thing with infrastructure/public
| transport&hoghways and education system. For the rest, yeah,
| with western salary it's cheap here and food is ok, you can
| live with little stress from 2k eur/m
| angra_mainyu wrote:
| I'm not talking about vaslui and it's not the early 2000s
| anymore.
|
| My reference point is growing up in western europe, and
| then spending a decade moving around various western
| european countries, coming to eastern europe and the
| balkans some years ago. To be quite frank, I found the
| balkans a massive upgrade in every way possible including
| the aspects you mentioned - except local wages.
|
| Western europe used to be better, but the past 5 years or
| so it's nosedived while the balkans has seen improvements.
| AlbertCory wrote:
| Thanks. I've been to Europe a bunch of times, including once
| east of the Iron Curtain when it was still up. If I were to
| go back now, the Balkans, Poland, and Lithuania would be the
| destinations (the last two are for ancestry reasons).
|
| They're just more interesting.
| peer2pay wrote:
| It's hard not to be pessimistic in Germany these days.
|
| Population is aging and paying for the retirement money for all
| existing retirees is already taking up over 25% of government
| spending. There's barely money for anything else so taxes and
| social security payments are poised to go up while already
| being close to ~50% for most earners.
|
| There's a strong and growing far-right movement full of
| populist and even neo-nazi ideologies.
|
| Infrastructure is still top notch internationally but funding
| has been cut over the last decades and it's starting to show.
|
| I could go on but I think you get the picture. Many people in
| my social circle want to leave the country so I would really
| think twice about moving here.
| andersa wrote:
| > Many people in my social circle want to leave the country
|
| And go where?
| usrusr wrote:
| One person I know went to the United States. Ten to
| Switzerland. Zero anywhere else on the planet. Not sure the
| US guy counts though, quite possible that it's only a
| temporary assignment from his home employer.
|
| If you wonder what the Swiss do, when all those Germans
| take their jobs: my observation, utterly anecdotal of
| course, is that they commute to Liechtenstein.
| dgellow wrote:
| Seeing that we are at the level of anecdotes, as a Swiss
| I went to Germany and don't plan to ever go back. Other
| friends went to the UK, Japan, the US, Canada. So there
| is that. And not because foreigners take our jobs, that's
| an utterly absurd concept, Switzerland wouldn't be the
| country it is without cross border workers and people
| immigrating. Our dumb isolationist and social
| conservative politics are costing the country and
| community a lot.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| France? Belgium? US? UK? Ireland? Austria? Switzerland?
| Poland? Czechia? Luxembourg? Netherlands? Norway? Sweden?
| Denmark?
|
| There's no perfect country, just one where you have the
| least amount of compromises. Or where your family unit is.
| jabradoodle wrote:
| I wouldn't suggest putting the UK in that list,
| absolutely crumbling and showing no signs of stopping.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| If you work in tech you'll be fine there.
| rqtwteye wrote:
| Or if you work for a car manufacturer around Stuttgart.
| They keep building pretty nice houses.
| alphager wrote:
| And you'd be fine in Germany.
|
| HN paints an overly gloomy picture of Germany. All points
| mentioned contain a kernel of truth but also a
| pessimistic linear regression concerning the outlook of
| the future. We've got a very minor recession going on,
| that's all. The economy will turn around next year.
|
| The energy crisis is of the higher price than usual
| variety (and is already _way_ past its peak; look at the
| 5y chart: https://ycharts.com/indicators/germany_natural_
| gas_border_pr...). The greenefication of our electrical
| grid is ongoing and will cost us a ton of money over the
| next 5-10 years, but will pay off after that (yes, it
| would have been better to keep the atomic power plants
| running until then; that's one of the few irrational
| decision done by the previous conservative government and
| confirmed by the current government).
|
| We had a large immigration spike in 2015 and another one
| in 2022 (Syria and Ukraine), overfilling the immigration
| centers.
|
| Aging population is a thing, as in any other western
| country. Turns out that immigration is one of the things
| that counteracts it! And we're currently (and for the
| next decade) in serious need of unskilled labor, so even
| the 40% of syrian refugees that haven't gotten work yet
| (many of those because of the slow bureaucracy...) will
| be needed.
|
| It's certainly not all sunshine and rainbows, but it's
| also certainly not a crumbling country without a future.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> Turns out that immigration is one of the things that
| counteracts it!_
|
| But where will they live? Germany has a housing shortage
| it refuses to fix, but is constantly importing more
| economic cannon fodder.
| Xylakant wrote:
| ,,Germany" doesn't have a housing shortage. German cities
| do, and it's a huge problem. But on the other hand,
| Germany also has a huge infrastructure deficit in more
| rural areas - I live in Berlin and would happily vacate
| my flat to move to a 2nd or 3rd tier small town, but that
| means giving up on solid public transport, connectivity,
| supermarket next door, walkability and fast internet in
| many many places. Work wouldn't be an issue, our company
| is remote anyways, but all of these things are a huge
| problem. Fixing those issues would mean less people want
| to move to the city, less pressure on the housing market
| etc.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> ,,Germany" doesn't have a housing shortage. German
| cities do_
|
| Yes, and everyone coming to Germany will also want to
| live only in the big cities, not in some desolate village
| full of empty homes and super conservative boomers. How
| is this sustainable?
| Xylakant wrote:
| Yep, true. But it doesn't have to be that way. Other
| states have plenty of beautiful, livable, attractive mid-
| size towns because they have in fact managed to avoid
| these issues. Have good internet, have solid connectivity
| to places people want to go.
|
| The ,,village" I grew up in has about 8000 inhabitants,
| it's 5 kilometers from a train station with trains every
| 15 minutes. About 70 000 people live in a circle of about
| 10-15 kilometers around that town. The next major town is
| about 20 kilometers away, or 15 minutes by train from
| that station. Yet, there's not a single bus to the train
| station. There's no proper bike parking at that station.
| There's a bus every 30 minutes that takes an hour to
| reach the city center. Internet is capped at about
| 16MBit/sec. This is a densely populated area by most
| standards. Still, every bit of infrastructure sucks -
| except for cars. There's two different highways right
| around the village.
| dauertewigkeit wrote:
| Germany will very likely never catch up technologically
| to the US. We aren't going to have the Germany equivalent
| of Open AI anytime soon, or the equivalent of Tesla or
| Space X. So if you care at all about being on the winning
| team, it's probably not going to be Germany or even
| anywhere in Europe. You'd have to choose between the US
| or China and South Korea.
| coolThingsFirst wrote:
| "You'll be fine" is a very low bar for a country in 2023.
|
| The software salaries in Germany are just low.
| jabradoodle wrote:
| I do work in tech, doesn't mean the country isn't a
| failing mess that is becoming worse to live in by the
| year.
|
| If you have a high demand job, that gives you leverage to
| move to a country that isn't shooting itself in the foot
| consistently and in a downward spiral toward
| authoritarianism.
| tejinderss wrote:
| > Ireland
|
| Good luck with finding housing here.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| You can say the same thing about Berlin. Every livable
| tech hub is full.
| Gud wrote:
| I live in Switzerland since a few years back. I love
| Switzerland, it is the best country in the world I've
| ever been, by far. Unless you want to live in a mega city
| or on the coast. The only drawback is you must speak
| either French, Italian or learn Swiss-Deutch, a very
| difficult German dialect to learn.
|
| I'd scratch France, Belgium, Sweden and the UK off that
| list. I've worked 6+ months in all those countries and
| well, they're not great. What's worse is they're going in
| the wrong direction.
|
| I'm from Sweden and it is rapidly deteriorating. It
| saddens me greatly to say this, but I don't think my home
| country has a very bright future. When you hear the
| politicians talk it seems they finally realize that they
| have fucked up the country. But not to what extent, and
| their solutions are a joke. It will only get worse, and
| it will never be the same.
|
| Before you consider Belgium, I suggest you spend some
| time in Brussels. You will know what I mean. Maybe
| Flanders... I really like Antwerp, actually it's one of
| my favorite cities. If you like beer, you will love
| Antwerp. I was working in Antwerp for a long time. But
| why bother with Belgium when Netherlands is right there?
|
| The UK is dirty and the cities are full of homeless and
| it has a byzantine bureaucracy on top of everything. I'm
| currently working in Liverpool(not by choice, posted by
| my company) but I have been pretty much all over the U.K.
| Some places are better than others, the country side is
| all right, but still. Don't go there. The U.K. truly is a
| dying empire.
| peer2pay wrote:
| I think that's a fair question. The grass is always greener
| but most are thinking about Scandinavian countries or the
| Netherlands.
|
| For me, climate change should also factor into this. While
| Germany will probably be fine temperature wise, I'm not
| sure if I'd considered moving to Southern Europe anymore.
| angra_mainyu wrote:
| Really? Having been in those places that's like going
| from bad to worse.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| Where is it going from bad to worse?
| protortyp wrote:
| I strongly agree. Much of my social circle went to Amsterdam
| in hopes of better salaries and the tax benefit for the first
| few years.
| sneed_chucker wrote:
| The far-right movements are a completely predictable and
| preventable result of the immigration policy of the last 2
| decades.
| lnsru wrote:
| Well when a refugee with 2 kids gets 1890EUR in cash,
| Kindergeld on top, free health insurance and free housing...
| I am also becoming very quickly populist and even neo-nazi
| follower. That's income level of white collar worker after
| university studies and few years work experience. This
| nonsense with uncontrolled immigration must be over asap. Get
| the people some warm shelter and warm food, don't throw money
| at them!
| dauertewigkeit wrote:
| What is ridiculous is that a "refugee" who burns his papers
| gets all that help. Then at the same time I had students
| who had to leave Germany because they did not find a job in
| time after their masters. These students have worked
| throughout their stay here and even payed into the system
| but were deemed either too foreign or too rich to get any
| financial assistance while searching for a job.
|
| Germany is a weird place where if you play by the rules you
| get a very harsh treatment but if you cheat the rules you
| can get a lot of free shit.
| bugglebeetle wrote:
| > I am also becoming very quickly populist and even neo-
| nazi follower
|
| Yikes. Go read a history book before you end up like your
| predecessors from the 30s and 40s.
| killdozer wrote:
| "Look, you're just FORCING me to become a 'neo-nazi
| follower' by helping these people too much!"
| zuzu89 wrote:
| This is what happens when the established parties refuse
| to do anything about it and don't even address the issue
| seriously, instead immediately labeling people who see
| the problem as "Nazis." The obvious conclusion from this
| is that these people are inevitably supporting parties
| that see this is an issue.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| It's a very poor tasteful way of saying anti-immigrant
| sentiment doesn't appear in a vacuum. That some auto
| label such people with this sentiment as neo Nazis is
| another issue.
| Gud wrote:
| A more apt description would be, taking money from Insrus
| pocket and giving it to someone else. Someone who
| deliberately broke the rules and exploited a system
| designed to help people in need.
|
| I'd be pissed too if that were to happen to me.
| PurpleRamen wrote:
| Your numbers looks very wrong. Any source for your claim?
| lnsru wrote:
| My numbers are very right. Straight from the table of the
| lady who processes this particular case in local
| Finanzamt.
| PurpleRamen wrote:
| So you don't have any source, just some anecdotal claim,
| which contradicts public data. And since when is the
| Finanzamt responsible for refugees? That's the job of the
| Sozialamt. Are you maybe talking about a guestworker, not
| a refugee? Because refugees are unable to receive
| Kindergeld, unlike workers of jobs with social insurance.
| lnsru wrote:
| Please start reading about the benefits for Ukrainian
| refugees. Then comment. Thank you.
| PurpleRamen wrote:
| Ukrainians are a special case. They are not handled as
| refugees, but EU-citizen, meaning they enter the normal
| social system. And this is beneficial for Germany, as
| Ukrainians are also able to enter the job market because
| of this. But even then your claims are sketchy. Even with
| Burgergeld 1 adult + 2 kids needs to be an extreme case
| for such an amount.
| Barrin92 wrote:
| We're currently in a war, a complete energy transition, global
| supply chain disruptions all hitting an export driven economy
| at the same time, and yet we're talking about GDP stagnation or
| decline of a fraction of a percent.
|
| People are truly dramatic these days, if you had asked me five
| years ago what the toll of something like this would be I'd
| have guessed it'd be ten times as bad.
|
| Give it a few years and don't base your long term decisions on
| stuff like this, Germany has always been resilient and able to
| adapt, if a little slowly at times. The 'sick man of Europe'
| debate is not new and the cup gets passed around every once in
| a while.
| ivix wrote:
| Why on earth would you live your life by a sub single digit
| percentage swing in an abstrusely calculated macroeconomic
| statistic?
| tbeiwhsj wrote:
| [flagged]
| eigenspace wrote:
| Honestly, the gloom over Germany's economy is fairly overblown.
| Germany is facing challenges, but they're by no means as
| apocalyptic as people make them out to be.
|
| It's not really a German recession, but instead a global
| manufacturing recession. Germany's economy is highly exposed to
| manufacturing, and so it shows up more in the country-wide
| economic stats. If you look at almost any major manufacturing
| country right now, their manufacturing sector is also in
| recession.
|
| Many other economic sectors of Germany are doing just fine,
| especially services. Unemployment is also very very low, so the
| country is well positioned to re-absorb any jobs that may be
| lost if some manufacturing companies go under, and those jobs
| may end up going into more productive companies or sectors
| anyways.
|
| I moved here from Canada two months ago and I'm really liking
| it so far.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> I had no idea the economy was like that in Germany._
|
| Addiction to Russian gas, over-bureaucratic system that's super
| inefficient with tax-money meaning most goes to waste, an
| ageing population hoarding all the wealth and burdening the
| welfare system, uncontrolled unskilled immigration further
| burdening the welfare system and pushing rents up, clueless
| boomer leaders not investing in innovation and capturing new
| areas of the economy, refusing to build more real-estate
| because environment further pushing housing up, politics based
| on ideology not reality, a clueless and arrogant voter base
| thinking everything is perfect and none of the issues above
| need addressing, will do that to you.
|
| Though, that's most of Europe, not just Germany.
| vkou wrote:
| Why is an aging population an issue? Labour participation and
| productivity is up over the decades, society can produce more
| than enough widgets to keep everyone comfortable, despite the
| aging population causing a regression-to-historic-mean in
| labour participation.
| flutas wrote:
| I've done no research and don't have a stake in the game,
| so I'm blindly just copy/pasting another comment on here.
| But if it's accurate I could see it being an issue.
|
| > Population is aging and paying for the retirement money
| for all existing retirees is already taking up over 25% of
| government spending. There's barely money for anything else
| so taxes and social security payments are poised to go up
| while already being close to ~50% for most earners.
| pgeorgi wrote:
| The tax/social contributions stuff can be cherry picked
| to become very high and very low to support any point
| people want to make.
|
| There are employer contributions in Germany that are
| recently counted in such calculations to prove a point,
| while leaving costs for "benefits" in US companies off
| the table when doing the comparison.
|
| Some like to add the VAT to the "what life costs here",
| which is a 19% (except for necessities, which are at 7%).
|
| If you refuse to accept such calculations that mix up tax
| brackets (popular error in that space), that immediately
| filters out 90% of them.
| rank0 wrote:
| Who's going to pay for the current working generation when
| they retire?
|
| Social security-like systems require a growing population
| to sustain.
| dauertewigkeit wrote:
| Because old people run the country. That is even worse than
| us having to pay for them. Old men are scared of their own
| farts and that is not good for the future of a country. We
| don't want to be stuck living in the late 20th century but
| that is where all these old people steer the country
| towards.
| toenail wrote:
| > Why is an aging population an issue?
|
| Because the pension is a ponzi scheme. Young people will be
| squeezed for every penny as the old population also
| controls the majority of votes. Politicians have known this
| for decades and done nothing serious to fix the problem.
| meiraleal wrote:
| > Politicians have known this for decades and done
| nothing serious to fix the problem.
|
| They do. They vote to raise retirement age. Then the
| young people protest.
| usrusr wrote:
| No, young poeple don't protest. They are happy to hold a
| slightly smaller bag. Old people who aren't quite over
| the cutoff date protest.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> Politicians have known this for decades and done
| nothing serious to fix the problem._
|
| They have always done something. They kicked the can down
| the road and blamed the previous people in power for the
| current siltation. Rinse and repeat.
| usrusr wrote:
| It's an issue when you compare what amount of consumption a
| given job allows. If your wages support old people, some of
| that consumption is outsourced (outsinked?)
| amelius wrote:
| There was some discussion about it a month ago:
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37172818
| skymast wrote:
| [dead]
| helpfulContrib wrote:
| > shrug .. Oktorberfest
|
| Germans are exceptionally good at kicking back, drinking a few
| beers, and disconnecting from the real world, even if it is just
| for 6 or 8 hours or so. They can do it with an extraordinary
| insouciance that I do not believe is easily observable, elsewhere
| in the Western sphere.
|
| I remember, arriving for my first year of many in a German town,
| to the raucous cacophony of a Karnival (im Ruhrgebiet) wherein a
| mass of teenagers, whom I would ordinarily have deemed far too
| irresponsible for the drunkenness and tomfoolery on display
| gleefully smashed their freshly emptied bottles of local beers in
| the village streets for all and sundry to enjoy. It was
| extraordinary - definitely not a riot, but rather a very well
| organized and town-supported explosion of pent-up energy. The
| glass was all impeccably removed within hours of the jubilations'
| end. This was a regular thing, a kind of festival, and nobody
| really minded the puke. The Ruhrpott weather would sort it out,
| ho ho.
|
| And its the same throughout the German state, which is accustomed
| to so much gloom but yet produces so much beauty, life and
| vitality. I dare you to find the fertility of Munich or Koln or
| Frankfurt, in summer time, elsewhere .. it is palpable.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> I dare you to find the fertility of Munich or Koln or
| Frankfurt, in summer time, elsewhere_
|
| Your take feels weird, as if only Germany has great nightlife.
| I don't get what you were trying to prove with this point.
|
| Most big European cities are vibrant in the summer, some even
| all year round, and some even better than the German cities you
| mentioned. Even Belgrade is friggin awesome to visit and party
| in.
| dgellow wrote:
| > I dare you to find the fertility of Munich or Koln or
| Frankfurt, in summer time, elsewhere
|
| How can you not mention Berlin? Splendid city to experience in
| spring and summer.
| tetris11 wrote:
| German drinking culture is certainly different. Pubs don't
| exist. Yeah sure you might have a Kneipe or a Biergarten here
| and there, but mostly, you go to your friends house to drink
| there or you sit around in a circle on the pavement (but never
| on the kerb...) outside a closed bar. There's a weird street
| energy there, but it's not intense, just conversationally
| pleasant. Maybe you get a Kebap on the way home, but only if
| you're waiting for your train.
|
| The UK by contrast has a different energy. Pubs almost every
| corner, fancy ones with fireplaces and sofas, high heels and
| bare legs no matter the (often chill-inducing) weather, kebab
| shops surging with a strange camraderie, singing in the
| streets, and most importantly, people sitting on the kerb.
| sambazi wrote:
| folks are still scrambling for beers at more than twice the
| normal price
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| Don't confuse tourists spending all-in, with the locals'
| purchasing power.
| tempodox wrote:
| The Oktoberfest is the largest annual drug festival in the world,
| but cannabis is still illegal in Germany.
| zuzu89 wrote:
| total Bavarian victory
| dgellow wrote:
| Next year, maybe :)
|
| https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/cannabis-le...
| protortyp wrote:
| As a local, I'm really looking forward to when this madness is
| over in a few days, so we can finally use the metro again without
| that ever-present puke smell.
| dauertewigkeit wrote:
| I honestly do not see how the two things are related. Spending
| 15EUR once instead of 8EUR once is not really a sign of anything.
| You can do that even as an unemployed person on Burgergeld.
|
| What is worrying about the German economy is also not the current
| inflation but the long term outlook: the energy prices that will
| never be competitive, the 20 years of technological lag within
| almost all industries due to lack of investment and extremely
| risk averse financial climate, and the ever aging population,
| which now Germans are starting to realize, won't be so easily
| solved by immigration, neither illegal nor legal.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| Munich-born dude here. I'm glad when it's finally. fucking. over.
| even though it wasn't as bad as it used to be this year in public
| transport, no idea why - usually all kinds of trains are _packed_
| with people drunk out of their mind.
|
| The problem is that _a lot_ of prime real estate is taken over by
| an army of hotels that are only at ~50-60% load on average [1]
| but _packed_ during Oktoberfest and the Bauma trade fair with
| prices skyrocketing to hundreds, even _thousands_ of euros per
| night [2]. On top of that come all the more or less legal AirBnBs
| which are just as much of a goldmine, with Oktoberfest yielding
| enough to pay for a whole year worth of rent.
|
| Fuck that completely unsustainable shit. I'm sick of the
| exploding rents, cost of living in this shithole of a city, and
| by the looks of it I'll be out in a year.
|
| [1]
| https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/319560/umfrag...
|
| [2]
| https://www.merkur.de/lokales/muenchen/oktoberfest/oktoberfe...
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _a lot of prime real estate is taken over by an army of
| hotels that are only at ~50-60% load on average_
|
| Isn't this a textbook case for Airbnb (or something akin to
| it)? Residents live year round, except during the festival,
| when they rent out their homes?
|
| Put another way, would the hotels be open to long-term leases
| which black out the festival?
| mschuster91 wrote:
| > Isn't this a textbook case for Airbnb (or something akin to
| it)? Residents live year round, except during the festival,
| when they rent out their homes?
|
| I lived above an AirBnB until the actual landlord shut that
| shit down. AirBnB is a fucking pest even without Oktoberfest,
| but during it it's even worse. NO ONE wants hordes of
| drunkards stomping through the stairwell at 03:00 in the
| morning. There's a reason accomodation providers are a
| regulated business.
|
| > Put another way, would the hotels be open to long-term
| leases which black out the festival?
|
| Who can afford that? Even at 50EUR a night it's 1500EUR a
| month with barely more than a bed and a shower.
| Xylakant wrote:
| I used to live right next to the Wiesn (on the place with
| the St. Paul's church) and we'd have strict orders to keep
| the gate to the buildings yard closed at all times during
| Octoberfest or the potted plants would die due to urea
| oversupply.
|
| I believe I spent one year in Munich during the Wiesn, and
| then fled town every year.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| I lived for a year on Bavariaring. After I woke up from
| the smell of someone having taken a shit in the garden
| right below my window despite a locked fence/gate, I fled
| the area. Cheap rent had its reason...
| Xylakant wrote:
| I loved the area, except for the Octoberfest. People
| leaning on the church walls, puking. No way to use any
| public transport station nearby. Hordes of drunks moving
| from/to Hackerbrucke. Unbearable. Unbelievable if you
| haven't seen it.
| myspy wrote:
| Come to lower franconia dude
| turing_complete wrote:
| Yes, Oktoberfest is the reason why Munich is so expensive.
| (Eyeroll)
| mschuster91 wrote:
| The hotel plague _definitely_ contributes to the problem.
| Take alone the Motel One Orleans x Rosenheimer Strasse [1].
| The 7000 m2 would have been _a lot_ of space that could have
| been used for a rental block, and to make it worse Motel One
| already has a hotel less than 10 min walking time on
| Orleansstrasse. Or the FIVE HOTELS they built in the former
| Werksviertel [2]. Or yet another hotel in Hochstrasse [3].
| And that 's just what has been going on over the last few
| years in my hood - I can reach any of these destinations in
| less than ten minutes with my bike - , not including what
| goes on near Central Station which _already has_ the highest
| density of hotels in the entirety of Europe [4] and yet there
| are more projects under construction, often at the expense of
| housing and small businesses.
|
| And all of this is only made possible by Oktoberfest and
| Bauma, because the extraordinary rates paid for during that
| time cross-finance the rest of the year.
|
| I'm fucking fed up with hotels, I'm fed up with AirBnB, I'm
| fed up with tourists. Enough is enough.
|
| [1] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/rosenheimer-strasse-
| hai...
|
| [2] https://www.abendzeitung-muenchen.de/muenchen/hotelflut-
| im-m...
|
| [3] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/haidhausen-hotels-
| novot...
|
| [4] https://www.focus.de/regional/muenchen/muenchen-weil-ein-
| hot...
| sveme wrote:
| I do like the Wiesn (and just came back from there) and
| live in Haidhausen which does not get so badly affected by
| the drunkards, but the whole hotel, airbnb and office space
| crap is getting too much. That is not sustainable.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| If you're interested in meeting up for a beer at
| Tassilogarten: email is in my profile ;)
| onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
| > The 7000 m2 would have been a lot of space that could
| have been used for a rental block
|
| Isn't that like 80 apartments? That's not going to bring
| down housing costs in Munich materially. Millions of people
| live there.
|
| You'd need 10s of thousands of new units to bring down
| prices materially.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| > Isn't that like 80 apartments?
|
| That's the size of the _entire property_ , so (depending
| on what you build / how high) ~28.000 m2 of resulting
| space or about 450-ish 60 m2 apartments), so enough
| living space for 1000-1500 people.
|
| > You'd need 10s of thousands of new units to bring down
| prices materially.
|
| Agreed, but building hotels that are only fully occupied
| once every year for Oktoberfest and once every three
| years for Bauma is a waste of highly valuable real
| estate.
|
| Munich has about 94k hotel beds in total [1], and less
| than 10k homeless [2]. Close the hotels, give the place
| to those who actually need it.
|
| [1] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/319424
| /umfrag...
|
| [2] https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/zdf-
| mittagsmagazin/muenchen-b...
| jklinger410 wrote:
| In America, we love events that are boons to our local
| economies, even when it inconveniences us personally.
| CogitoCogito wrote:
| That certainly is false as a general statement. In America,
| you will see countless complaints similar to those coming
| from /u/mschuster91. This makes sense, since many of those
| inconvenienced don't reap any economic benefits from it.
| browningstreet wrote:
| Obviously such a generalization can't be true.
|
| When the Olympics come to town?
|
| When Fleet Week comes to town?
|
| When the giant music festivals happen in the parks?
|
| When the big awards show takes over the tourist area?
|
| When SF tourists make our ski mountains require paid parking
| on the weekends?
|
| People grumble..
| fruffy wrote:
| Most of the locals do enjoy the Oktoberfest (speaking as
| someone from there). It is a fun two weeks of the year and
| the entire city enters a special kind of mood.
|
| But it is not surprising that the HN crowd would find it
| distasteful. People here are definitely not the type for
| these kinds of festivities.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| Don't get me wrong: I have no problem with drinking beer, I
| used to be able to down an entire case of Augustiner in my
| best days in one night. Personal record at Oktoberfest is
| something around 6-7 Mass.
|
| The problem I have with Oktoberfest is that it's gotten
| _way_ out of hand, it 's too much impact for the local
| population for way too little gain for common people - and
| it's increasingly unaffordable: 15 euros for a liter of
| beer? That's bloody ridiculous.
| pcl wrote:
| _> 15 euros for a liter of beer? That 's bloody
| ridiculous._
|
| Better cross Norway off your vacation list, then!
| mschuster91 wrote:
| People in Norway earn way more money than Germans do [1],
| that offsets the high taxes on alcohol.
|
| [1] https://www.handelsblatt.com/karriere/norwegen-
| arbeitszeit-h...
| Gud wrote:
| And what about compared to Munich/Bavaria? Munich is very
| rich by German standards and doesn't seem to be too far
| off compared to Norway.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| Munich locals pay the most expensive rents in Germany,
| and those who have the cash to buy are facing the second-
| most expensive real estate market in Europe [1].
|
| [1] https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/immobilien-
| preis-eur...
| mschuster91 wrote:
| If the profits would stay in the local economies, maybe I'd
| not be so pissed about it. But a huge chunk of the profits
| ends up at international hotel conglomerates and beer
| breweries - the only one still independent is Augustiner,
| _everyone else_ got bought up - and their shareholders.
|
| Thanks but no thanks.
| zuzu89 wrote:
| all the breweries that operate tents are local breweries.
| other operators are local clubs, or local (family)
| businesses.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| > all the breweries that operate tents are local
| breweries.
|
| The _brewery_ is local, but the profits go elsewhere:
|
| - Lowenbrau, Spaten, Franziskaner: Anheuser-Busch-InBev
|
| - Hacker Pschorr: doesn't even exist as a brewery, the
| brand is owned by a local construction baron and
| Heineken, the beer is brewed by Paulaner.
|
| The only independents (made a mistake above, it's
| actually two) are Augustiner which is privately held and
| Hofbrau which belongs to the government.
| partiallypro wrote:
| > this shithole of a city
|
| I've lived in Munich and it's one of my favorite cities in the
| world. I'm from Nashville and I mostly hate it, though people
| seem to love it. I think you are experiencing a severe bias if
| you think Munich resembles anything close to a "shithole." It
| has amazing parks, great transportation options, a good vibe,
| hikes within a short train ride, etc. It has tourists and big
| events? Oh, no...so like every big city on Earth? Avoiding
| Wiesn is actually extremely easy, unlike other massive events
| in other cities.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| I've lived in Munich for like what, 29, years of my life.
| It's seriously gone down the drain. Born there, went to
| school there, went to uni there, went away, and came back 8
| years ago.
|
| Housing is unaffordable if your parents haven't died and
| passed you a sizable estate, if you need childcare you have
| to register a year before planned conception (obviously
| exagerrated, but you get the point), good luck finding a
| doctor if you're not having private insurance, public
| transport is utterly nuts, cops will relentlessly hunt you
| down for smoking a blunt or beat you up for daring to host an
| outdoor rave, and there's fucking traffic everywhere.
| partiallypro wrote:
| Ok, a lot of people feel this about their cities they view
| through the lens of the past. I think the same of
| Nashville, but I at least acknowledge I am extremely biased
| and basically just a grumpy 30+ year old. Munich is easily
| one of the best -big- cities in the world. Literally
| everything you just said could be applied to virtually
| every large city on Earth. Munich has roughly the same
| population as Manhattan, it is a huge city and yet is
| clean, safe, accessible, has great transit, close to tons
| of lakes and the Alps. I know Germans are fairly
| pessimistic, so not really surprising to hear this, but
| also, I will vouche that it's not really in touch with
| reality when you compare it to cities of similar sizes in
| Europe and the US.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| > Munich is easily one of the best -big- cities in the
| world.
|
| That's the usual problem with relative comparisons. When
| the competition is cities with people defecating on the
| sidewalks (SF), half the city being bought up as a wealth
| store for Russians and Chinese (London) or places with
| incompetent politicians (Berlin), even a run-down place
| like Munich stands out. And the conservative clowns
| holding the Bavarian government hostage for decades does
| all it can to fuck up the city even more (see e.g. the
| _years_ of the Bezirksregierung Oberbayern throwing
| wrenches into the C-series subway or tram trains, or how
| the state and federal government completely blew the 2.
| Stammstrecke train tunnel project), just to help out the
| local Conservatives which really aren 't liked in Munich
| by acting like the SPD/Greens government is at fault for
| the issues.
|
| Seriously, I demand better from politics than to be happy
| with being the best among mediocrity. Germany is the
| fourth-richest nation in the world by GDP, the most
| powerful economy in the EU. We _can_ do better than that.
| yladiz wrote:
| > places with incompetent politicians (Berlin)
|
| What makes you think that, stuff like the Mietendeckel?
| reddiky wrote:
| As another Nashvillian(sp?), I definitely understand the
| difference between how a city is viewed by tourists and by
| locals. I don't mostly hate Nashville, but I basically hate
| Broadway, 12 south, basically everything everyone thinks of
| as Nashville
| schroeding wrote:
| One of the problems in Munich is that all rapid public
| transport goes through the city centre, there is no loop
| around it like in Berlin. If you commute to the west you have
| to go through Hackerbrucke station - that's the one close to
| Theresienwiese, where Oktoberfest is. Same goes for the
| subway, Munich has very centralised hubs where the lines
| cross, hard to avoid.
|
| Just to be the counterpoint: I'm also born in Munich and I
| like this city quite a lot. Certainly not a shithole, IMO -
| and that's the main reason why rents are as insane as they
| are. If not even Freiham, a big new city quarter which is
| currently being build, is able to put a dent into the rising
| rents, then I doubt replacing the extra hotel capacity would
| be a game changer either, IMO. Munich just grew way too
| quickly without scaling it's infrastructure accordingly.
| daniel-s wrote:
| I think that this is relevant. German industry has collapsed
| after the natural gas input from Russia got cut off.
|
| https://youtu.be/22M813tN9zk
| ttepasse wrote:
| "collapsed"
|
| That would imply bankruptcies, mass unemployment, etc. But for
| some reason only the people on anglophile Youtube see this
| collapse. Germany mostly muddles through.
|
| That is not to say there are no problems. But "collapse" is an
| absurd hyperbole.
| standardUser wrote:
| A major economy is facing a minor recession in the aftermath of
| a once-in-a-generation energy shock and a once-in-a-generation
| inflation spike. If history tells us anything, it's that major
| economic powers are phenomenally robust.
| rank0 wrote:
| This is not once in a generation for either of those things.
| standardUser wrote:
| The last time the West faced a major inflation spike with
| the mid-to-late 70's (and it was WAY worse than this),
| about a generation ago. The same can be said of the last
| major energy crisis.
|
| If you have facts I am unaware of feel free to share them.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| A lot of former major global economies have fallen off their
| peaks and never recovered. Britain used to rule the world and
| now ...
| standardUser wrote:
| ...and now Britain is a first-world economy with a very
| high standard of living and home to one of the greatest
| financial centers in the history of the world.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| And how much of that financial center wealth ends up
| working for the average Brit?
| magicpin wrote:
| How did being a major empire work for the average Brit?
| profunctor wrote:
| Won them two world wars when losing is famously bad for
| the economy.
| gruez wrote:
| And how much of the British Empire wealth ends up working
| for the average Brit?
| jddj wrote:
| Not an insignificant amount, the construction industry
| for example extracts quite a bit
| ben_w wrote:
| About half of England (the bit closest to London) is in a
| good state, Wales not so much, likewise much of The
| North.
|
| How much of the blame you assign to the Tories, to
| Brexit, to Covid, and to the global economic
| repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is up
| for debate; but the quality of life was very noticeably
| worse when I last visited friends and family back on the
| island, compared to my final pre-lockdown trip.
|
| However, none of that is quite as substantial as the
| colossal loss of relative power that came from the
| pyrrhic victories of the two World Wars that cost it
| control of the largest empire the world had ever seen,
| and left it losing a series of disputes over fishing
| rights to a country whose primary military forces are its
| coast guard.
| FirmwareBurner wrote:
| _> left it losing a series of disputes over fishing
| rights to a country whose primary military forces are its
| coast guard_
|
| Why shouldn't Iceland be in control of fishing in own
| waters and instead expect it to give it up to the UK to
| come and take as it pleases? Using your navy to take
| other country's resources is basically a war crime.
| ben_w wrote:
| This particular series of disputes was regarding the
| increase of "it's own waters" from 3 miles from the coast
| to 12/200 miles and if that was even legit.
| elzbardico wrote:
| Panis et Circenses, but the neoliberal version with less bread.
| xenonite wrote:
| Plant based hyper-processed is all the hype now, which is sort
| of the same. Feeding, not nourishment.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| It's not like meat would be better - for capitalist reasons,
| a lot of traditional breeds of cows, pigs and poultry are
| nearing extinction because production has optimized to a very
| few select breeds that produce the "most" meat, at the cost
| of the animal's welfare (especially with chicken that have
| issues standing upright) and the taste.
| secondcoming wrote:
| The Tourist Oktoberfest in Munich is good to experience once, but
| I have no intention to ever go again. Queueing in the hope you
| can get into a tent, asshole bouncers, and massive crowds took
| the shine off a bit. You get a table and never leave until you're
| kicked out. The cost of the beer doesn't include the massive tips
| you're expected to give the beer women either (which they
| deserve)
|
| The lack of a hangover after copious amounts of beer was quite a
| nice surprise though.
| mschuster91 wrote:
| > The lack of a hangover after copious amounts of beer was
| quite a nice surprise though.
|
| That's because it's actual, high quality beer that's been
| brewed right in Munich - in fact, being brewed inside Munich
| city borders is a requirement to be allowed on the Oktoberfest,
| and there are only a handful of qualifying beer breweries in
| the first place [1].
|
| For those wishing to go: keep in mind that the beer served on
| Oktoberfest is an even stronger variety than regular beer which
| is in itself way stronger than what is called beer in other
| places of this world. And for heavens sake don't forget to eat
| beforehand and during a tent visit.
|
| [1] https://www.tz.de/muenchen/wiesn/oktoberfest-wiesn-
| festbier-...
| gumballindie wrote:
| All good things come to an end, and so does the german economic
| miracle. Other countries in the eu need to capture a larger share
| of the market.
| pg_1234 wrote:
| https://archive.ph/Xzva4
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