[HN Gopher] Antarctic sea ice hits lowest winter maximum on reco...
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       Antarctic sea ice hits lowest winter maximum on record: US data
        
       Author : wglb
       Score  : 60 points
       Date   : 2023-09-27 19:57 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (phys.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (phys.org)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | rq1 wrote:
       | inf sup is a decreasing function.
       | 
       | Cheers!
        
       | greenyoda wrote:
       | Recent discussions:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37542499
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37540768
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37530218
        
       | 1970-01-01 wrote:
       | This chart tells it better: https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-
       | content/uploads/2023/09/arctic-...
        
         | anonporridge wrote:
         | This one is best, and is interactive and regularly updated.
         | https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-...
        
         | myshpa wrote:
         | Also here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice/ (click
         | Switch Hemisphere)
        
       | anonymousiam wrote:
       | Unless I am mistaken, 16.96 million square kilometers is more
       | than 15.9 million square kilometers (the recorded antarctic sea
       | ice coverage in August 1966).
       | 
       | https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20140017193/downloads/20...
        
         | anonporridge wrote:
         | From the article.
         | 
         | > "This is the lowest sea ice maximum in the 1979 to 2023 sea
         | ice record by a wide margin," said the NSIDC, a government-
         | supported program at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
        
           | feerceKitteh wrote:
           | The paper linked is also only an estimate using a different
           | source of data.
           | 
           | >"Even adding in the Nimbus V single-channel Electrically
           | Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) data extends the record
           | by only another 6 years and that data is not as com- plete or
           | consistent [2]."
           | 
           | > "This paper presents Antarctic sea ice estimates for winter
           | 1964 and 1966 derived from early Nimbus satellite data as an
           | initial step towards creating Earth Science Data Records of
           | sea ice in the 1960s."
        
             | anonymousiam wrote:
             | "The paper linked is also only an estimate using a
             | different source of data."
             | 
             | Yes, an estimate with an error margin of +-0.3 million
             | square kilometers. Also, the 1979-2023 data is from
             | multiple "different" sources.
        
           | mikestew wrote:
           | A brief skim of the paper also suggests that the data are
           | from different means of measurement. In the case of
           | measurements from the 60s, those came from infrared and
           | visible light, whereas from the 70s on its passive microwave.
           | The paper is proposing a method to use the old data as
           | passive microwave, and thereby extending the sea ice record.
           | 
           | So is OP's comparison still valid? (Assuming I'm not
           | completely off base here.)
        
         | Karellen wrote:
         | From your link, in the introduction:
         | 
         | > Sea ice extent data from multi-channel [1979-2012] passive
         | microwave sensors provided one of the longest-running climate
         | records from satellites in the form of the sea ice extent index
         | [1]. However, while the more than 30-year record is now long
         | enough for typical climate-scale change, it is still relatively
         | short. Even adding in the Nimbus V single-channel Electrically
         | Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) data extends the record by
         | only another 6 years and that data is not as complete or
         | consistent [2]. _Earlier data are only available from
         | operational ice charts that are of variable quality and do not
         | cover all ice-covered regions. This was particularly true in
         | the Antarctic, where there were few ice charts before 1972._
         | 
         | Sections _IV. ERROR ANALYSIS_ and _V. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT
         | ESTIMATES, 1964 VS. 1966_ then go on to explain how calculating
         | ice extents before the passive microwave sensor era is
         | unreliable, with gems like:
         | 
         | > The 1964 satellite data provide fairly complete coverage over
         | the Antarctic, allowing the ice edge to be clearly seen in most
         | areas in at least one image over the three weeks. This provides
         | a reasonably robust estimate of sea ice extent for the period,
         | though some uncertainty results from the variation of the ice
         | edge location during the time period. The Nimbus I data had at
         | most eight images of any area in the three weeks of data
         | collection, so _it was difficult to distinguish homogeneous
         | clouds and homogeneous ice_.
         | 
         | > Coverage of Nimbus II AVCS images for the Antarctic for 1966
         | was fairly complete but the film record ends on August 31 so a
         | direct comparison with the 1964 estimate from Nimbus I is not
         | possible. [...] The results for May 1966 had higher uncertainty
         | because images often lacked clean ice edges. For both May and
         | June there were longitudes with no ice edge detection, leading
         | to further uncertainty
         | 
         | > The fact that our August 1966 is such an outlier indicates
         | potential issues in the Nimbus August data. In addition, the
         | drop in extent from July to August is not seen in the passive
         | microwave record and _is not physically likely_.
         | 
         | > Unfortunately, we have been able to uncover any corroborating
         | information on Antarctic sea ice in 1964 or 1966, including any
         | data or imagery from US Navy aircraft over-flights.
         | 
         | Basically, any measurements from before 1979, and especially
         | before 1972, are not particularly reliable. Some researchers
         | have produced the best numbers they could from the data they
         | did have, but there needs to be a big asterisk by them.
        
         | beowulfey wrote:
         | That number is estimated using very different methodologies,
         | it's hard to compare to the modern numbers!
        
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       (page generated 2023-09-27 23:01 UTC)