[HN Gopher] One robber baron's gamble on railroads
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       One robber baron's gamble on railroads
        
       Author : samclemens
       Score  : 53 points
       Date   : 2023-09-24 02:24 UTC (20 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.smithsonianmag.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.smithsonianmag.com)
        
       | costco wrote:
       | This is my favorite period of US history to read about.
       | 
       | > "As a result, the rise of the railroads inspired entirely new
       | forms of corporate securities and governance. They also yielded
       | stupendous levels of fraud and chicanery, wrote business
       | historian Alfred D. Chandler Jr. in his 1965 book, The Railroads:
       | The Nation's First Big Business. Railroad owners often made more
       | money on construction, land and mineral rights than they did on
       | operating the tracks themselves."
       | 
       | To elaborate:
       | 
       | - The people who ran the railroads would also own the companies
       | constructing the railroads. They would charge ridiculous fees and
       | profit at the expense of shareholders and creditors when they
       | inevitably went bankrupt. In the Credit Mobilier case, tens of
       | millions of (1860) dollars in government money given to the Union
       | Pacific ended up in the hands of the construction company Credit
       | Mobilier because construction costs were inflated by a factor of
       | 2. Of course, some congressman also secretly had stakes in Credit
       | Mobilier. The looting at the Union Pacific puts PDVSA to shame!
       | 
       | - Land grant gamesmanship: "Land grants to railroads were made in
       | broad belts along the proposed route. Within these belts the
       | railroads were allowed to choose alternate mile-square sections
       | in checkerboard fashion. But until they determined the precise
       | location of their tracks and decided which sections were the
       | choicest selections, the railroads withheld all the land from
       | other users"
       | 
       | - The fact that the people running the railroads were often
       | promoters and had none of their own money at stake resulted in
       | highly inefficient routes being built. They didn't care because
       | they got paid either way, and in fact preferred more construction
       | even if it made the company less profitable.
       | 
       | - Routinely diluting investors to nothing.
       | 
       | - Bankruptcy plans that favored shareholders and directors over
       | creditors (JP Morgan's restructuring plan for the Erie).
       | 
       | The "Erie War" is a combination of a lot of these that is just
       | insane: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erie_War
       | 
       | It's also worth noting that while there were plenty of
       | opportunists and promoters there were people who were interested
       | in actually building economical railroads like Vanderbilt and the
       | lesser known Ned Harriman.
        
       | javitury wrote:
       | For those into board games, financial misconduct of early
       | american railroad companies inspired the renown game "1830: The
       | Game of Railroads and Robber Barons" and the 18xx game series.
        
       | ssss11 wrote:
       | Railroads' early days is what I think of in this current early
       | days of crypto/blockchain. So many scams, but the innovation is
       | there waiting to be utilised well.
       | 
       | "As a result, the rise of the railroads inspired entirely new
       | forms of corporate securities and governance. They also yielded
       | stupendous levels of fraud and chicanery, wrote business
       | historian Alfred D. Chandler Jr. in his 1965 book, The Railroads:
       | The Nation's First Big Business"
        
         | dotcoma wrote:
         | Would love to better understand the connection between
         | railroads and cryptocurrencies, if possible.
         | 
         | Railroads, scams aside, were extremely important for the
         | economy for at least 50 years after this scam.
         | 
         | Same with crypto? Really? And NFTs, too?
        
           | legutierr wrote:
           | It's relevant that the first railroad bubbles took place
           | several decades before the events described in the article.
           | Sometimes it takes a long time for capital-intensive
           | technologies to be fully deployed, and for economic benefits
           | to be fully realized.
           | 
           | In twenty years the use of public blockchains in everyday
           | finance and trade will be mundane. Former crypto skeptics
           | will explain that their earlier complaints pertained only to
           | the crazy things happening in 2020, not the boring & ordinary
           | things that crypto is used for in 2040. And meanwhile, nearly
           | everything "financial" involving counter-parties will happen
           | on-chain.
           | 
           | Why? Because public blockchains eliminate counter-party risk
           | for a large number of transactions, provide unparalleled
           | transparency, and give anyone with an internet connection
           | access to global financial markets, enfranchising billions of
           | people who are otherwise locked out due to unsatisfactory
           | local conditions. Blockchain tech will make developed
           | economies more efficient, and will accelerate development
           | world-wide.
           | 
           | If you don't agree that public blockchains actually do
           | anything useful, then you'll probably object to the railroad
           | analogy. But if you see value in blockchains, then there are
           | clear parallels:
           | 
           | * Initial cost of the build-out being funded by early
           | investors who might not be around to realize the long-term
           | benefits of the technology.
           | 
           | * Speculative energy attracting scammers alongside legitimate
           | operators.
           | 
           | * Long-term benefits not being obvious after the first wave
           | of investment dies down.
           | 
           | * The true value of the technology only being realized when
           | network effects are fully realized, years after the
           | technology's introduction.
        
             | no_wizard wrote:
             | > Because blockchains eliminate counter-party risk for a
             | large number of transactions, provide unparalleled
             | transparency, and give anyone with an internet connection
             | access to global financial markets, enfranchising billions
             | of people who are otherwise locked out due to
             | unsatisfactory local conditions. Blockchain tech will make
             | developed economies more efficient, and will accelerate
             | development world-wide
             | 
             | Saying this doesn't make it self evident. What exact
             | counter party risk is eliminated by blockchain technology?
             | I know there's alot of hype around the public ledger, but
             | what transparency does it provide beyond that? It's not
             | like I audit the entire trail of any arbitrary
             | transactions, which is usually where things like that come
             | into play.
             | 
             | What about fraud?
             | 
             | Also, how's blockchain better than existing and ongoing
             | open banking projects? They're enfranchising people
             | _today_. Look at all the good micro loans have done in
             | developing nations for instance
        
               | legutierr wrote:
               | > What exact counter party risk is eliminated by
               | blockchain technology?
               | 
               | Some specific examples currently available:
               | 
               | * Atomic swaps, where traded assets are immediately moved
               | between accounts upon execution of the trade, eliminate
               | the possibility that settlement will not complete.
               | 
               | * Real-time commerce, where merchants accept payments in
               | a format that can immediately be turned around and spent,
               | without waiting for reimbursement from third-party
               | networks.
               | 
               | * Loans backed by on-chain collateral, such that default
               | triggers immediate transfer of collateral, eliminates the
               | risk that collateral may not be obtainable upon default,
               | or that the value of collateral may fall too far before
               | the loan is liquidated.
               | 
               | > It's not like I audit the entire trail of any arbitrary
               | transactions, which is usually where things like that
               | come into play.
               | 
               | Open databases can be digested and analyzed by open-
               | source tools, and by trusted independent third-parties.
               | Closed databases cannot be analyzed by anyone except for
               | the database owner and government authorities. Some
               | government authorities are trustworthy, others are under-
               | resourced, incompetent or corrupt. Even if you personally
               | won't read the full history, you benefit from other
               | people being able to do so.
               | 
               | > Also, how's blockchain better than existing and ongoing
               | open banking projects? They're enfranchising people
               | today.
               | 
               | Problems can have multiple good solutions! Still, open
               | API access is different from open access to underlying
               | data and algorithms. Open APIs and blockchains can co-
               | exist and benefit from each other.
               | 
               | > What about fraud?
               | 
               | Fraud is a complex topic. The traditional financial
               | system has seen lots of fraud over the years (think about
               | what we witnessed in 2008). Credit card fraud is also a
               | rampant problem that is only managed by large financial
               | firms heavily surveilling payment networks.
               | 
               | There are fraud vectors that blockchain networks are more
               | susceptible to--just like there are other fraud vectors
               | that blockchain networks are less susceptible to than
               | traditional financial systems.
               | 
               | In my view, the greatest fraud risk in crypto comes from
               | the issuance of tokens that are questionable in some way
               | --a risk that I think can be eliminated if strong
               | controls are implemented regarding the issuance of tokens
               | on-chain.
        
         | paulryanrogers wrote:
         | Curious what innovation I may be missing in crypto. Can you
         | elaborate?
        
           | 300bps wrote:
           | Blockchain technology has historically claimed several
           | innovations:
           | 
           | 1. Decentralized currency
           | 
           | 2. Immutable ledger
           | 
           | 3. Transparent transactions
           | 
           | 4. Streamlined transactions (no T+2 or T+1 settlement)
           | 
           | 5. Borderless transactions (between people in other
           | countries)
           | 
           | 6. Microtransactions (transactions a tiny fraction of a cent)
           | 
           | 7. Smart contracts
           | 
           | These are innovations, the question is do they solve real
           | world problems without creating more? For example,
           | decentralization is great until you lose your keys or the
           | government wants to shut down money laundering.
           | 
           | I have yet to see a real world benefit from blockchain /
           | cryptocurrency technology. web3 is the closest to reality but
           | I feel like it goes against human nature and the concept of
           | decision fatigue. I don't want Netflix to prompt me, "Want to
           | watch the next episode for 4 cents?"
        
             | harry8 wrote:
             | > I don't want Netflix to prompt me, "Want to watch the
             | next episode for 4 cents?"
             | 
             | Neither does netflix. Vast amounts of under-used
             | subscriptions paid at a full rate would suddenly get a huge
             | discount. At the other end they wouldn't be getting much
             | more revenue out of those that watch more than average
             | because they'd likely cut down.
             | 
             | There must be plenty of ways of making a microtransaction
             | in ways customers don't mind, many of those haven't been
             | invented yet. I have no idea why blockchain is necessary
             | for microtransactions nor why we all have to pay a
             | microtransaction sized spending tax to the owners of the
             | payment systems every time we spend our money now. Will
             | blockchain fix this? I have my doubts about blockchain but
             | damn, someone should. It seems popular amongst the powerful
             | that they can cancel someone's ability to raise funds on
             | the basis of an accusation alone. Most people hate that
             | idea as stated, except for "$that_guy who I've just heard
             | of and is clearly a creep so that's fine." Who is it today?
             | How did that work out in the past? Maybe it will be more
             | like justice this time than before? Who knows?
        
             | pests wrote:
             | Where are the innovations? Every bullet point has other
             | solutions or a very major asterisk that is always
             | conveniently left off.
             | 
             | I've been a big proponent of crypto over the years and
             | think its pretty cool technology. I just can't think of any
             | problem it solves that isn't better solved by some other
             | solution.
        
               | legutierr wrote:
               | Is there a better solution for the performance of atomic
               | swaps between antagonistic traders each operating in a
               | different legal jurisdiction?
        
               | paulryanrogers wrote:
               | An antagonist seller can still fail to deliver after
               | accepting payment. Unless what's being sold is digital
               | and payment embeds flawlessly written smart contracts
               | _and_ no one has 51% of mining.
        
         | nawgz wrote:
         | Can you elucidate me on how you made that connection? I only
         | see the point that both lead to scams, which... Is not very
         | insightful.
         | 
         | Railroads are a physical device for logistical transportation.
         | This has a very obvious value prop.
         | 
         | Crypto is an "alternative" "financial" "system", which is
         | missing the key components of regulation and trust that back
         | all functioning financial systems.
         | 
         | Hard to draw the parallel for me.
        
           | ta8645 wrote:
           | > missing the key components of regulation and trust
           | 
           | I thought that those are supposed to be the key components of
           | crypto. You trust that it is regulated by mathematics, the
           | market, and infrastructure, rather than relying on fiat.
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | Mathematics alone doesn't interface with the real world
             | thus you get crypto exchanges etc. The crypto ecosystem is
             | therefore still built on trust not the blockchain.
        
             | PeterisP wrote:
             | The key products of the financial system is not transfer of
             | money (which crypto provides) but rather credit (with the
             | associated issues of trust and enforcement of settlement
             | against someone's will) and payment for goods and services
             | (with the associated need for fraud prevention on both
             | sides of the deal and reversibility of payments).
             | Mathematics cannot provide _that_ kind of trust.
        
       | ajb wrote:
       | Article doesn't mention this, but the previous year, 1872, the
       | there was a massive financial panic due to equine influenza,
       | which brought the transport system to a halt. Which could be a
       | good reason for overinvestment in "iron horses"
        
       | simonebrunozzi wrote:
       | Tangentially related, but if you're into videogames, the really
       | old Sid Meyer's "Railroad Tycoon" was a game that made me so
       | curious about these barons, and made me learn a lot about trains
       | and the 1800s US.
        
       | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
       | If only we could be investing so much in railroads once again!
        
       | hackermatic wrote:
       | My perception of the history of long-distance American railroads
       | (not ones that were built for a specific task like connecting a
       | mine to a market) is that many of them -- maybe even most of them
       | -- were failures in their first iteration. After going bankrupt
       | and ruining a lot of investors, others bought the assets at fire-
       | sale prices, and the opportunity to avoid the massive capital
       | outlay of actually building the lines is what made them
       | profitable in the long run.
        
         | Gibbon1 wrote:
         | The first railroad over the Appalachians bankrupted the first
         | two groups of investors. The third attempt managed to run a
         | line through and it changed the world. Because unfathomable
         | amounts of cheap grain from Ohio appeared on the international
         | market.
         | 
         | Big issue with rail is there are huge network effects are
         | impossible to price in pure market. Which is why except for the
         | US and Britain most countries built state owned rail. Britain
         | and the US eventually nationalized or quasi nationalize rail.
         | And attempts at privatization seem to fail.
        
       | downrightmike wrote:
       | Railroads are critical infrastructure and need to be public. They
       | are massively mismanaged, inefficient and that's all on purpose.
        
         | AlgorithmicTime wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | kortilla wrote:
         | Yes, if there's one thing government does well, it's managing
         | things efficiently.
        
       | AlbertCory wrote:
       | > It was like selling to crypto investors today
       | 
       | this is like saying that _electricity_ was like crypto.
       | 
       | Railroads had an undeniable economic value. So did all the
       | optical fiber that was laid during the dot-com boom. Eventually
       | it got used.
       | 
       | https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/is-fiber-optic-construction...
       | 
       | I have fiber to my house now. Crypto, on the other hand, is more
       | like 8-track tape. Or laser disks.
        
       | louwrentius wrote:
       | Gordon says. "We get crashes on Wall Street about every 20 years,
       | because that's how long it takes people to forget what happened
       | the last time. A generation of new guys think they're as smart as
       | they come, and then it turns out that they're human, like the
       | rest of us."
       | 
       | Sounds familiar, just can't put my finger on it.
        
       | cjs_ac wrote:
       | Antecedents from the UK include the Railway Mania of the 1840s[0]
       | and (to a lesser extent) the Canal Mania of the 1790s to
       | 1810s[1].
       | 
       | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania
       | 
       | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canal_Mania
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | The story of the Newry Canal, the first one, is amazing. Over a
         | hundred years from first order to construct, to opening.
         | 
         | Much delay, neglect of oversight, scope creep, fraud,
         | misaligned interests and lack of drive. I had no idea Wikipedia
         | could tell such good stories!
         | 
         | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newry_Canal
        
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