[HN Gopher] What will LLM-powered software look like in the medi...
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       What will LLM-powered software look like in the medium-term future?
        
       Author : vishnumenon
       Score  : 180 points
       Date   : 2023-09-18 18:25 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (vishnumenon.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (vishnumenon.com)
        
       | gnarcoregrizz wrote:
       | > the "inefficiency" involved in carrying out many digital tasks
       | "manually" is a core driver of the joy that comes with using
       | computers (for me and, I assume, for at least some subset of
       | others)
       | 
       | A lot of people feel this way. The romanticism of computing is
       | diminished by LLMs. Call me a luddite. I even work in AI.
        
       | makestuff wrote:
       | Clippy is going to make a triumphant return as the AI assistant
       | of the future. Clippy will be on every phone/tablet/computer just
       | talking to other instances of itself.
       | 
       | In 5-10 more years models will all run locally on device with
       | weight updates being pushed OTA.
       | 
       | Advertisers will somehow figure out how to train ads into these
       | models so you get subtle references to new products.
        
         | ozten wrote:
         | ... concludes your helpful outdoor activities this weekend.
         | Also, try Lawn Darts, which the cool kids call "Jarts". (Sorry,
         | training data was cut off in Jan 1970)
        
       | jasfi wrote:
       | LLM generated UIs sound interesting, but would likely ensure
       | nightmarish bugs. But if it can be done, someone will try it.
       | 
       | I might try it.
        
       | isoprophlex wrote:
       | Loving the ideas here. I'm especially fond of the machine-to-
       | machine idea, the concept of a locally running LLM that knows
       | about you, and a remote LLM in an app or whatever, interacting
       | with eachother to create a highly individualized UX.
       | 
       | Seems like a perfect blend of keeping the core personality of the
       | LLM trained on your data local, while still allowing permissioned
       | access.
        
       | mstipetic wrote:
       | I'm currently building something that touches on point 4, the
       | dynamically generated UI. I'm building basically copilot for PMs
       | that integrates with your project planning tool and so far it's
       | been working like magic. You can literally tell it to output a
       | json and use it like an API.
       | 
       | I think my main jobs are getting the prompts right and building
       | an UI and UX experience that makes sense, and the rest is somehow
       | taken care of by magic.
        
       | jumploops wrote:
       | There is LLM-powered software and then there is software
       | developed with the help of LLMs.
       | 
       | These paths are not mutually exclusive, but I'm personally more
       | excited about the latter.
        
       | nathan_gold wrote:
       | I can give a basic example of why chat-based UI will not
       | dominate.
       | 
       | Let's say I want to change a setting that uses a traditional
       | radio button UI:
       | 
       | - Autoscale servers - Manual scale servers
       | 
       | It's much easier to discover, understand the options, and make a
       | decision via a radio button UI than to ask for my options via
       | chat. That would look like:
       | 
       | "I'm having load issues on my servers. Can you increase the
       | server capacity?" "Sure! Do you want to autoscale or manual
       | scale?" "What's the difference? Are those the only two options or
       | are there more?" "There are only these 2 options. The difference
       | is..."
       | 
       | That's just a worse UX.
        
         | mpalmer wrote:
         | But it's not either/or. There's nothing that says you can't
         | have a visual interface that adjusts based on both natural
         | language feedback and traditional cursor-based input.
         | 
         | There are great examples of this in Westworld and The Expanse,
         | with characters talking to screens to update and refine their
         | queries.
        
         | bbarnett wrote:
         | _That 's just a worse UX._
         | 
         | So are touchscreens, especially in cars. Physical buttons are
         | far better for the end user.
         | 
         | Imagine a future when all people know is blah blah to use
         | computers, can't type, never see buttons, and barely read any
         | more.
         | 
         | Now is it a bad UX?
         | 
         | (Before the Internet, the majority of people rarely read. And
         | even now, most people don't read, they tiktok, they youtube.)
        
       | predictand wrote:
       | I agree with the author that chat interfaces for LLMs can be
       | suboptimal. A chat could require redundancies that is not
       | required to perform a task and it imposes a linear flow of
       | information. It is hard to have branching behaviour in a chat. I
       | have been experimenting with using a different kind of a UI to
       | overcome these limitations: https://www.heuristi.ca/
        
       | freckletonj wrote:
       | In answer to the same question I built UniteAI
       | https://github.com/freckletonj/uniteai
       | 
       | It's local first, and ties many different AIs into one text
       | editor, any arbitrary text editor in fact.
       | 
       | It does speech recognition, which isn't useful for writing code,
       | but is useful for generating natural language LLM prompts and
       | comments.
       | 
       | It does CodeLlama (and any HuggingFace-based language model)
       | 
       | It does ChatGPT
       | 
       | It does Retrieval Augmented Gen, which is where you have a query
       | that searches through eg PDFs, Youtube transcripts, code bases,
       | HTML, local or online files, Arxiv papers, etc. It then surfaces
       | passages relevant to your query, that you can then further use in
       | conjunction with an LLM.
       | 
       | I don't know how mainstream LLM-powered software looks, but for
       | devs, I love this format of tying in the best models as they're
       | released into one central repo where they can all play off each
       | others' strengths.
        
       | ryanjshaw wrote:
       | > I don't believe that natural language is an adequate medium for
       | conveying instructions with the precision required for many
       | applications.
       | 
       | Not clear to me if the author actually uses LLMs to do meaningful
       | work, or is speculating about how they might be used.
       | 
       | I've written about 2500 lines of F# for the first time in the
       | past 1.5 weeks using ChatGPT-4 to guide me. It has been an
       | constant back and forth, iterative process. My decades of
       | development experience factored in heavily to guide the process.
       | I would've have been at maybe a quarter the progress without
       | ChatGPT, or given up entirely on F# as my language.
       | 
       | I don't think that iterative aspect will be eliminated any time
       | soon for AI-supported complex, creative processes. It's no
       | different from tweaking inputs to a Photoshop filter until your
       | experienced brain decides things look right.
       | 
       | To that end you need to know roughly what looks "right" before
       | you use an LLM. This will all become second nature to the average
       | developer in the next 5-10 years.
        
         | waynesonfire wrote:
         | I had similar success when trying to solve problems with
         | Makefiles.
        
           | sanderjd wrote:
           | Yeah, for me it has been docker and kubernetes. I have found
           | it to be something of a killer app for spinning up on
           | anything with a bunch of annoying little details, that I'm
           | not already super familiar with.
           | 
           | Make, docker, kubernetes, all fit this pattern. Heck, maybe I
           | won't be so down on autotools if I run into it again now that
           | I can attack it with LLM support.
           | 
           | Or html / css; I haven't written any of that in the LLM era,
           | but maybe I'd enjoy it more now.
        
         | vishnumenon wrote:
         | I'm the author, and I don't disagree with this at all - I do
         | use LLMs pretty meaningfully in my day-to-day engineering work,
         | and I definitely agree that they hold a ton of promise in
         | situations like the one you mentioned. To be clear, I'm very
         | much bullish on the applications of LLMs to e.g. coding! The
         | point I was trying to make there was just that for _certain_
         | tasks, the process of chatting with an LLM is, by nature, less
         | precise and more arduous than a purpose-built UX. By analogy,
         | we might have "describe-your-change" functionality in
         | Photoshop, but its no replacement for all the other pixel-
         | perfect editing functionality that it provides, and I'd
         | struggle to imagine a world where Photoshop is ever _replaced
         | entirely_ by a chat UX
        
         | kristianp wrote:
         | The llm effect may enable people to use languages that are
         | harder to write, but produce a more maintainable and/or
         | performant product. Maybe it's finally time to learn rust or
         | ocaml!
        
         | lysecret wrote:
         | Ah haha I am going through the exact same experience but picked
         | up F# about 4 months ago and ChatGpt has been an absolute
         | godsend. There is a whole category of blockers in learning that
         | have been eliminated.
        
         | depletedgherkin wrote:
         | Bit of an aside, but I wonder if the rise of LLMs will lead to
         | new programming languages being much slower to be adopted.
         | 
         | Like you said, you might have given up on F# without ChatGPT
         | assistance, and the main way ChatGPT is able to help with F# is
         | because of all of the example code it's been trained on. If
         | developers rely more and more on LLM aid, then a new language
         | without strong LLM support might be a dealbreaker to widespread
         | adoption. They'll only have enough data once enough hobbyists
         | have published a lot of open-source code using the language.
         | 
         | On the other hand, this could also leading to slowing adoption
         | of new frontend frameworks, which could be a plus, since a lot
         | of people don't like how fast-moving that field can be.
        
           | bostonsre wrote:
           | Wouldn't you just need to publish a Rosetta stone type
           | translation for it to be able to digest the new language
           | fully? e.g. here is how you do this in python and here is how
           | you do it in this new language
        
           | Closi wrote:
           | I've also wondered this - including if we might see a breed
           | of 'higher level' languages (i.e. much higher level than
           | Python) which can then be 'AI compiled' into highly efficient
           | low level code.
           | 
           | i.e. the advantages of an even-higher-level python that's
           | almost like pseudo-code with assembly-level speed and rust-
           | level safety, where some complexity can be abstracted out to
           | the LLM.
        
             | waynesonfire wrote:
             | I disagree. Chatgpt is helpful here because f# is a
             | paradigm shift for this otherwise experienced programmer.
             | The programmer probably knows juuussstt enough f# to guide
             | the llm.
        
               | Closi wrote:
               | I mean why is f# the goal, and could we write a better f#
               | with the use of AI.
               | 
               | As an example, why not write in f# and let an 'AI-
               | compiler' optimise the code...
               | 
               | The AI-compiler could then make sure all the code is type
               | safe, add in manual memory management to avoid the
               | pitfalls of garbage collection, add memory safety etc -
               | all the hard bits.
               | 
               | And then if we gave the AI-compiler those sort of
               | responsibilities, then we can think about how this would
               | impact language design in the longer term.
               | 
               | None of this is with current generation LLM's, but might
               | be where we end up.
        
               | jprete wrote:
               | This doesn't require AI, it requires higher-level
               | languages than we have that can express intent more
               | directly.
        
               | Closi wrote:
               | In current generation language there is definitely a
               | trade-off between language productivity (i.e. speed of
               | writing) and features such as speed and memory-safety.
               | 
               | So far we haven't been able to close this gap fully with
               | current compilers and interpreters (i.e. python still
               | runs slower than C).
               | 
               | It seems like that gap could be closed through, for
               | example, automated refactoring into a rust-like language
               | during compilation, or directly into more-efficient byte-
               | code/ASM that behaves identically.
               | 
               | And surely if that is a possibility, that would affect
               | language design (e.g. if you can abstract away some
               | complexity around things like memory management).
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | throwuwu wrote:
           | The crazy thing that a lot of people don't realize is that
           | all of that data generalizes to anything new you can throw at
           | it. As long as there's enough space in the prompt to provide
           | documentation it can do it on the fly but you could also fine
           | tune the model on the new info.
        
             | Spivak wrote:
             | Which is what Phind tries (and mostly succeeds) in doing.
             | LLM + Search Engine is way smarter than just LLM.
        
           | yayitswei wrote:
           | I heard somewhere that ChatGPT is surprisingly good for human
           | language translations even though it's not specifically
           | trained for it. There seems to be just enough examples of
           | e.g. Japanese that Japanese researchers use it to translate
           | papers. I suspect that's largely true for programming
           | languages too. I've had great success working with it in
           | Clojure, even though there's relatively little published code
           | compared to more popular languages.
        
             | bugglebeetle wrote:
             | ChatGPT is pretty good for translations of Japanese into
             | English. It's English to Japanese translation tend to sound
             | somewhat stiff/formal/machine-generated, although it's less
             | prone to hallucinations than DeepL for larger texts. I
             | expect this is because it was trained on a much larger
             | corpus of English language texts than Japanese ones, which
             | means the problem is not intractable.
        
           | Buttons840 wrote:
           | It could go the other way. LLMs might make porting code from
           | one language to another easier which would speed the adoption
           | of newer and more niche languages. And the future of
           | documentation and tutorials might be fine-tuning an LLM.
        
         | gumballindie wrote:
         | To this day i am still wondering what kind of code people write
         | that chatgpt can possibly help with. All my attempts lead to
         | garbage and i would spend more time fixing the output of the
         | chat bot than writing the actual code. It does help with some
         | documentation. But even that has glitches.
        
           | mk_chan wrote:
           | I used chatgpt4 to generate python code which generates c++
           | code for a hobby project of mine using a library I've never
           | used before. The iteration speed is ridiculously good and no
           | one in any of the IRC or discord channels I visited pointed
           | me even in the general direction of such a simple solution.
           | 
           | https://chat.openai.com/share/d041af60-b980-4972-ba62-3d41e0.
           | .. https://github.com/Mk-
           | Chan/gw2combat/blob/master/generate_co...
        
           | bostonsre wrote:
           | If you are trying to do something with an api that you have
           | no experience with it will get you up and running quickly.
           | e.g. How do I get all kubernetes configmaps in a given
           | namespace older than n days in go? It gives you the bones
           | about how you create and configure a client and query
           | kubernetes to get the information that you are looking for.
           | It's much quicker than googling and parsing a tutorial.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | havnagiggle wrote:
           | It's what Clippy always wanted to be.
        
           | j-a-a-p wrote:
           | Did some ETL with Python. ChatGTP got it right 99%. And,
           | remarkably understood a public API that I was feeding from,
           | which used 2-letter abbreviations.
        
           | timacles wrote:
           | It's good at a beginner, early intermediate level when you
           | need help with syntax and structuring basic things. It's an
           | excellent helper tool at that stage.
           | 
           | But it's obvious outside of jr dev work and hobby projects
           | there's no way it could possibly grasp enough context to be
           | useful.
        
             | kyleyeats wrote:
             | Stage? A lot of developers don't realize that they're all
             | the same personality type which is good at particular
             | things. LLMs give everyone else this advantage. You just
             | don't realize it yet because you were never aware of the
             | advantage in the first place.
        
               | timacles wrote:
               | I'm not really following what you're trying to say. What
               | is that personality type, and what are the things its
               | good at? What is the LLM advantage?
               | 
               | Not saying your post is devoid of any substance, just
               | trying to educate myself on my blindspots
        
               | kyleyeats wrote:
               | There are three types of intelligence: intuitive,
               | cognitive and narrative.
               | 
               | Tech has, for years, seen people with cognitive/narrative
               | intelligence as the people who are actually smart.
               | 
               | LLMs help the intuitive people reach the level of the
               | cognitive/narrative people. Cognitive/narrative people
               | can't really understand this in the same way the
               | intuitive people are bad at syntax or database structure.
               | The steamrolling will be slow and merciless.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | AlexCoventry wrote:
               | Could you give a concrete example of where ChatGPT is
               | likely to provide a competitive advantage to intuitive
               | people with weak cognitive/narrative capabilities?
        
               | gumballindie wrote:
               | > they're all the same personality
               | 
               | Yeah usually it was the shittiest managers I ever met
               | that shared this belief. It sounds like they all repeat
               | the same thing - gpt is a better google.
        
               | kyleyeats wrote:
               | Are you calling me a shitty manager? Would you say this
               | to my face? What's wrong with you?
        
               | gumballindie wrote:
               | I am not, but there's a tendency among those types that
               | categorise people into narrow sets that they can
               | understand. Also your statement doesn't much make sense.
               | Being a good developer means you understand a wide range
               | of issues, not just spelling in a language and adding if
               | statements. The combination of personalities vary wildly.
               | To be fair, LLMs if anything, will help developers become
               | better managers, simply because developers understand
               | what needs to be done. Instead of decyphering what
               | someone meant by requesting a vague feature, you can ask
               | a statistical system - an ai as some call it - what the
               | average joe wants. And then get it done.
        
           | 6510 wrote:
           | Treat it like your rubber duck.
        
           | wokwokwok wrote:
           | No one uses it to generate code. Really. Talk to people who
           | actually use it and listen to what they say... they use it to
           | help _them_ write code.
           | 
           | If you try to generate code, you'll find it underwhelming,
           | and frankly, quite rubbish.
           | 
           | However, if you want an example of what I've seen multiple
           | people do:
           | 
           | 1) open your code in window a
           | 
           | 2) open chatgpt in window b (side by side)
           | 
           | 3) _you_ write code.
           | 
           | 4) when you get stuck, have a question, need advice, need to
           | resolve an error, ask chatgpt instead of searching and
           | finding a stack overflow answer (or whatever).
           | 
           | You'll find that it's better at answering easy questions,
           | translating from x to y, giving high level advice (eg. Code
           | structure, high level steps) and suggesting solutions to
           | errors. It can generally make trivial code snippets like "how
           | do I map x to y" or "how do I find this as a regex in xxx".
           | 
           | If this looks a lot like the sort of question someone
           | learning a new language might ask, you'd be right. That's
           | where a lot of people are finding a lot of value in it.
           | 
           | I used this approach to learn kotlin and write an IntelliJ
           | plugin.
           | 
           | ...
           | 
           | ...but, until there's another breakthrough (eg. Latent
           | diffusion for text models?) you're probably going to get
           | limited value from chatgpt unless you're asking easy
           | questions, or working in a higher level framework. Copy
           | pasting into the text box will give you results that are
           | exactly as you've experienced.
           | 
           | (High level framework, for example, chain of thought, code
           | validation, n-shot code generation and tests / metrics to
           | pick the best generated code. It's not that you _cant_
           | generate complex code, but naively pasting into
           | chat.openai.com will not, ever, do it)
        
             | tyingq wrote:
             | That matches my experience. It's a sort of shortcut to the
             | old process of googling for examples and sifting through
             | the results. And those results, I didn't typically cut and
             | paste from them, or if I did, it was mostly as a sort of a
             | scaffold to build from, including deleting a fair amount of
             | what was there.
             | 
             | Many times it works really well, and it surfaces the kind
             | of example I need. Sometimes it works badly. Usually when
             | it's bad, going to the google/sift method has similar
             | results. Which I guess makes sense, it couldn't find much
             | to train on, so that's why it's answer wasn't great.
             | 
             | One area it works really well for me is 3rd party apis
             | where their documentation is mostly just
             | class/function/etc. ChatGPT generally does a good job of
             | producing an orchestrated example with relevant comments
             | that helps me see the bigger picture.
        
               | shanusmagnus wrote:
               | Me too. As someone who used to be a dev but hasn't
               | written code professionally in twelve years or so, it was
               | such an amazing accelerant. My iteration loop was to
               | contextualize it (in English and in code), ask how to do
               | a thing, look at its response, tweak it, execute, see
               | what happened, alter it some more.
               | 
               | The fact that it usually had errors didn't bother me at
               | all -- it got much of the way there, and it did so by
               | doing the stuff that is slowest and most boring for me:
               | finding the right libraries / functions / API set up,
               | structuring the code within the broader sweep.
               | 
               | Interesting side note: un-popular languages, but ones
               | that have been around for a long time and have a lot of
               | high-quality and well-documented code / discussion /
               | projects around, are surprisingly fecund. Like, it was
               | surprisingly good at elisp, given how fringe that is.
        
               | bumbledraven wrote:
               | With GPT-4, you can often just paste the error message in
               | without any further commentary, and it will reply with a
               | modified version of the code that it thinks will fix the
               | error.
        
               | gumballindie wrote:
               | And then you waste time fixing the error the "fix" gpt
               | introduced. Clever.
        
           | ryanjshaw wrote:
           | I've used it on this side project for:
           | 
           | - A rough crash course in F#. I'll say "what's the equivalent
           | in F# of this C# concept?". It will often explain that there
           | is no direct concept, and give me a number of alternative
           | approaches to use. I'll explain why I'm asking, and it'll
           | walk through the pros/cons of each option.
           | 
           | - Translating about 800 lines of TypeScript JSON schema
           | structures to F#. A 1:1 translation is not possible since
           | TypeScript has some features F# doesn't, so ChatGPT also
           | helped me understand the different options available to me
           | for handling that.
           | 
           | - Translating psuedo-code/algorithms into idiomatic F# as a
           | complete F# beginner. The algorithms involve regex + AST-
           | based code analysis and pattern matching. This is a very
           | iterative process, and usually I ask for one step at a time
           | and make sure that step works before I move onto the next.
           | 
           | - Planning design at a high-level and confirming whether I've
           | thought through all the options carefully enough.
           | 
           | - Adding small features or modifications to working code: I
           | present part of the function plus relevant type definitions,
           | and ask it for a particular change. This is especially useful
           | when I'm tired - even though I could probably figure it out
           | myself, it's easier to ask the bot.
           | 
           | - Understanding F# compiler errors, which are particularly
           | verbose and confusing when you're new to the language. I
           | present the relevant section of code and the compiler error
           | and 90% of the time it tells me exactly what the problem and
           | solution is; 5% of the time we figure it out iteratively. The
           | last 5% tends I have to stumble through myself.
           | 
           | - Confirming whether my F# code is idiomatic and conforming
           | to F# style.
           | 
           | - Yes it makes mistakes. Just like humans. You need to go
           | back and forth a bit. You need to know what you're doing and
           | what you want to achieve; it's a tool, not magic.
           | 
           | Note: this is the commercial product, ChatGPT-4. If you're
           | using the free ChatGPT 3.5, you will not be anywhere near as
           | productive.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | kopos wrote:
           | I've have used ChatGPT for
           | 
           | - De-obfuscate a obfuscated JS code
           | 
           | - Unminify a JS code. Asked it to guess function names based
           | on the functionality
           | 
           | - Work with it like a rubber duck to plan out the possible
           | solutions to a code problem
           | 
           | - To suggest function names based on the functionality
           | 
           | - To name repos
           | 
           | - Modify a piece of Go code to add specific functionality to
           | it. I don't know to write Go; I can read it and grok the high
           | level functionality
        
           | kelseyfrog wrote:
           | Programmers[1] have a complexity bias that interferes with
           | the idea that LLMs can write useful code.
           | 
           | I had a problem last week where I wanted to extract sheet
           | names and selection ranges from the Numbers app for a few
           | dozen spreadsheets. ChatGPT, came up with the idea of using
           | Apple script and with a but of coaxing wrote a script to do
           | it. I don't know ApplesScript and I really don't want to
           | learn it. I want to solve my problem and its 10 lines of
           | AppleScript did just that.
           | 
           | We're nowhere near LLMs being capable of writing codebases,
           | be we are here for LLMs being able to write valuable code
           | because those concepts are orthogonal.
           | 
           | 1. some, most
        
             | gumballindie wrote:
             | I am confused - the "code" you described is likely a google
             | search away. Well I mean google has become useless but when
             | it worked it was able to find such stuff in one search. So
             | really all I am getting is that gpt is a better google.
        
               | kelseyfrog wrote:
               | I'm not quite understanding. It sounds like I was
               | supposed to use google search before it stopped working?
               | 
               | A great counterexample would be a google query which
               | includes the answer in the results.
        
           | umanwizard wrote:
           | Are you using 3.5 or 4?
        
         | badrabbit wrote:
         | I feel like such a jerk for not wanting to use chatgpt for all
         | that. It's not just mild paranoia about feeding it input I
         | prefer be kept private but I just don't enjoy having someone
         | else do half the thinking for me I guess.
         | 
         | I mean, I don't like intellisense either (but simple
         | autocomplete is fine). Perhaps it is because I only code to
         | help with my job, I don't get paid to have a lot of good
         | quality code output.
        
           | sanderjd wrote:
           | I think I would have felt this way when I was younger. But
           | after writing code for over twenty years, I'm very happy to
           | let computers do the boring half of the thinking, so that I
           | can think about more interesting things.
           | 
           | It is not intellectually stimulating for me to think about
           | what the syntax for a dict comprehension is, or what exactly
           | I'm supposed to do to map over the values of an array in
           | javascript without screwing it up, or any of a million other
           | kinds of minutia. Computers know the answers to these
           | uninteresting questions.
        
             | shanusmagnus wrote:
             | That's what's been so striking for me -- the stuff that is
             | fun and playful for me I get to do; and a bunch of stuff
             | that I hated I can now offload, with the net result that I
             | get to work at the level of abstraction that is most
             | interesting and most human, vs acting like a human robot
             | trying to unearth documentation, API examples, etc.
             | 
             | There's no question about this being the right way to use
             | it for me, but I wonder if this could introduce something
             | bad for someone just starting out, who hadn't first got all
             | the reps with the drudgery over decades? Still mulling on
             | that.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Yeah, I've said a bunch that I'm worried about people
               | starting out from scratch. So much of what I do after I
               | get responses from LLMs is best described as "taste", but
               | how would I have developed that taste without the years
               | of slogging through?
               | 
               | But I also think this is probably just a classic geezer's
               | concern about kids being on my lawn, and it will probably
               | work out just fine for these youths :)
        
               | jprete wrote:
               | Eh. I think the peak of computer ability was GenX. I'm
               | not in that group but made up for it with sheer
               | intensity. If you grow up on a phone you're not getting
               | any of the mental modeling to get close to what the
               | machine is doing and you're only going to be able to work
               | with the limited tools of that level until you
               | deliberately dive deeper.
        
               | shanusmagnus wrote:
               | I think both you and the GP are onto something important.
               | I am one of the vaunted Gen-Xers (this is the first time
               | someone has said anything nice about us, so thanks) and
               | there is something to the idea that my understanding of
               | systems goes down to assembly language (fully) and even
               | CPU architecture (very sketchily) all the way up to,
               | like, web frameworks. So for the stuff I'm usually doing,
               | I understand several layers up and down, and that often
               | seems valuable.
               | 
               | This strikes me as the essence of expertise, the
               | difference between talking to someone who's read a book
               | or a review paper, vs someone who is a real expert at
               | that thing. You can be quite competent and insightful
               | from having done a modest amount of reading and thinking,
               | but if you're seeing the Matrix, and know how all these
               | forces are interacting with each other, that's just a
               | whole other level. It makes an impression when you brush
               | up against it.
               | 
               | However: it always weighs on me how this is all a matter
               | of framing. Like, I don't know the electronics. There's a
               | level of metal that I don't get. Some of the really high-
               | level stuff is now beyond me, too. I catch myself saying
               | "I should really take x {weeks, months, years} and really
               | grok that." And yet my actual experience suggests this is
               | a mirage.
               | 
               | More briefly: there are always more layers for a fuller
               | understanding. It's hard to see how many of them are
               | really useful. Maybe the kid who is 10x better than me at
               | LLM collaboration will benefit more than from having a
               | deeper stack. It's interesting to ponder how these
               | different consequences will play out.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | FWIW I'm a (geriatric) millennial, and we were totally
               | taught all that same stuff. And yeah, it totally feels
               | important to me to have this mental model up and down the
               | layers. But I also do wonder whether we're just wrong
               | about that, merely falling prey to nostalgia.
               | 
               | My messy answer is that for many projects it's either
               | neutral or an actual hindrance - I have to remind myself
               | to pragmatically not care about stuff that won't matter
               | for years at the project's expected growth rate - but for
               | other projects it's very useful. I think the way to go is
               | to seek out those kinds of projects, in order to avoid
               | frustration all around.
        
               | shanusmagnus wrote:
               | Always important to be on guard for things amenable to
               | self-congratulation. At least, I sure need to be on guard
               | against it :)
        
               | jprete wrote:
               | I think a lot of the drudgery is lack of language
               | quality. But this is still a better argument than I've
               | seen before for using it.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | I dunno, I've used all kinds of languages, from the ones
               | people often consider lower quality to the ones people
               | often consider higher quality, and they all have
               | _something_ like this.
               | 
               | And maybe there's some as yet unexplored design space out
               | there for which this isn't true, but my prior is that
               | we're actually just circling around some essential
               | complexity at the core of the problem, which will never
               | be eliminated.
        
             | breckenedge wrote:
             | It takes programming back to the pseudocode experience, but
             | now the computer can fill in all the code bits really well
             | about 75% of the time
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Yeah, 75% seems a bit high, but it's a high enough
               | percentage to be extremely useful to me.
        
           | n4r9 wrote:
           | Don't beat yourself up. As a mathematically-oriented software
           | engineer I also have little to no interest in using LLMs to
           | help with coding. It feels like the people that do are the
           | builders, i.e. interested in quickly knocking up something
           | that works most of the time. Which is great from a business
           | perspective. I can't help but see my programming output as an
           | artistic expression of my thought, and therefore find it
           | difficult to give up the hands-on construction to others (be
           | it LLMs or juniors).
        
             | corethree wrote:
             | Mathematically oriented software engineers have the most to
             | benefit off of software assistance due to algebraic
             | designs.
             | 
             | As one myself LLMs don't feel like giving up control it
             | feels like collaboration. You probably don't like
             | collaboration.
        
               | jprete wrote:
               | Claiming that someone doesn't like collaboration because
               | they don't want to use ChatGPT is a very unreasonable and
               | biased take.
        
               | bumbledraven wrote:
               | Not especially more biased than GGP's claim that people
               | who use LLMs as coding assistants are "builders, i.e.
               | interested in quickly knocking up something that works
               | most of the time".
        
               | n4r9 wrote:
               | Could you expand on the comment about "algebraic
               | designs"?
               | 
               | When I interact with an LLM it feels like I'm speaking to
               | someone who lacks inherent conceptual understanding, but
               | is doing their utmost best to bullshit me. This is
               | problematic when it comes to algorithmic thinking.
               | 
               | I sometimes need to solve problems that involve tweaking
               | existing algorithms in somewhat novel ways. For example
               | "k-medoid clustering but with various capacity
               | constraints on clusters", or "contraction heirarchies but
               | accounting for varying vehicle dimension restrictions".
               | 
               | I love collaborating with smart colleagues to come up
               | with ideas to solve these problems. Seeing chat-gpt fail
               | to solve very simple traveling salesman type problems
               | gives me little confidence that it can do novel
               | conceptual tihnking.
               | 
               | EDIT
               | 
               | To test my own claims, I just tried asking Chat-GPT to
               | make this modification to k-means clustering. It produced
               | something that will give _a_ result but will likely not
               | be very optimal. When prompted to refine the solution, it
               | failed to understand the issue and instead proposed the
               | exact same solution just with a bit more implementation
               | detail.
               | 
               | User
               | 
               | Suggest a modification to the k-means algorithm where the
               | number of elements assigned to each cluster is limited to
               | a pre-defined maximum value.
               | 
               | ChatGPT
               | 
               | To modify the traditional k-means algorithm to limit the
               | number of elements assigned to each cluster to a pre-
               | defined maximum value, you can create a variation of
               | k-means called "k-means with cluster size constraints."
               | This modification ensures that no cluster exceeds the
               | specified maximum size while still optimizing cluster
               | centroids based on the sum of squared distances. Here's a
               | high-level overview of the modified algorithm:
               | 
               | 1 Initialize centroids: Start by randomly selecting K
               | initial centroids, where K is the desired number of
               | clusters.
               | 
               | 2 Assign data points to clusters: Assign each data point
               | to the nearest centroid based on Euclidean distance, just
               | like in the traditional k-means algorithm.
               | 
               | 3 Update centroids: Recalculate the centroids of each
               | cluster by taking the mean of all the data points
               | assigned to that cluster.
               | 
               | 4 Check cluster sizes: After updating the centroids,
               | check the size of each cluster. If any cluster exceeds
               | the pre-defined maximum size, proceed to reassign some
               | data points from that cluster to other clusters. Here's
               | how you can do this: Identify the cluster(s) that exceed
               | the maximum size. For each over-sized cluster: Sort the
               | data points in that cluster by their distance to the
               | cluster centroid in ascending order. Start reassigning
               | the farthest data points to other clusters (the ones with
               | the smallest distances) until the cluster size constraint
               | is satisfied. Update the centroids of the affected
               | clusters accordingly.
               | 
               | 5 Repeat steps 2 and 3: Continue iterating between data
               | point assignment and centroid updating until convergence,
               | or until a predefined number of iterations have been
               | reached.
               | 
               | 6 Termination: The algorithm terminates when either the
               | cluster assignments do not change significantly between
               | iterations or after a fixed number of iterations.
               | 
               | Here are a few things to consider when implementing this
               | modification:                   You will need to
               | experiment with the order in which you reassign data
               | points from over-sized clusters to minimize the impact on
               | the overall clustering quality.              You should
               | set an appropriate stopping criterion to prevent the
               | algorithm from running indefinitely.              Be
               | prepared to handle situations where it is impossible to
               | meet the cluster size constraint while maintaining good
               | cluster quality. In such cases, you may need to relax the
               | constraint or consider alternative clustering methods.
               | 
               | This modified k-means algorithm with cluster size
               | constraints allows you to control cluster sizes while
               | still finding meaningful clusters in your data.
               | 
               | User
               | 
               | Your proposed solution has an issue that points might be
               | reassigned even if there are clearly no other suitable
               | clusters. Please tweak the solution to avoid this issue.
               | 
               | ChatGPT
               | 
               | To address the issue of potentially reassigning points
               | even when there are no other suitable clusters, we can
               | modify the approach by introducing a priority queue or
               | heap data structure to efficiently manage the
               | reassignment process. Here's an improved version of the
               | k-means algorithm with cluster size constraints:
               | 
               | 1 Initialize centroids: Start by randomly selecting K
               | initial centroids, where K is the desired number of
               | clusters.
               | 
               | 2 Assign data points to clusters: Assign each data point
               | to the nearest centroid based on Euclidean distance, just
               | like in the traditional k-means algorithm.
               | 
               | 3 Update centroids: Recalculate the centroids of each
               | cluster by taking the mean of all the data points
               | assigned to that cluster.
               | 
               | 4 Check cluster sizes: After updating the centroids,
               | check the size of each cluster. If any cluster exceeds
               | the pre-defined maximum size, proceed to reassign data
               | points from that cluster to other clusters. Here's how
               | you can do this: Identify the cluster(s) that exceed the
               | maximum size. For each over-sized cluster: Create a
               | priority queue (or heap) to store the data points in the
               | cluster, ordered by their distance to the cluster
               | centroid in ascending order. Start reassigning the
               | farthest data points to other clusters (the ones with the
               | smallest distances) until the cluster size constraint is
               | satisfied. Update the centroids of the affected clusters
               | accordingly. Continue this process until either the
               | cluster size constraint is met or there are no more
               | suitable clusters to reassign points to.
               | 
               | 5 Repeat steps 2 and 3: Continue iterating between data
               | point assignment and centroid updating until convergence,
               | or until a predefined number of iterations have been
               | reached.
               | 
               | 6 Termination: The algorithm terminates when either the
               | cluster assignments do not change significantly between
               | iterations or after a fixed number of iterations.
               | 
               | This modified approach ensures that points are only
               | reassigned to clusters that are suitable and have room to
               | accommodate additional points while maintaining the
               | overall quality of the clustering solution. The use of a
               | priority queue helps prioritize the reassignment of
               | points to clusters with the least impact on their
               | quality.
               | 
               | Additionally, you should set an appropriate stopping
               | criterion to prevent the algorithm from running
               | indefinitely, and you may need to handle situations where
               | it is impossible to meet the cluster size constraint
               | while maintaining good cluster quality by relaxing the
               | constraint or considering alternative clustering methods.
        
               | corethree wrote:
               | How is what you're doing mathematical? I mean you can
               | call CS "math", but then I don't know what you mean by
               | more "mathematical." Traditional cs algos are not what I
               | term as more mathy from my pov. Maybe you can call stats
               | "mathy" but this is more applied math and not too
               | different from what "builders" do.
               | 
               | Also what you're doing here is asking chatGPT for the
               | answer. chatGPT is more effective via collaboration.
               | Meaning instead of shoving the entire problem down it's
               | throat and asking it to solve it, you ask it for advice.
               | Ask it for bits and pieces of things.
        
               | bumbledraven wrote:
               | An LLM is going to be most helpful for topics that came
               | up a lot during training. What you're discussing doesn't
               | sound like it falls into that category.
        
             | sanderjd wrote:
             | I think the division is along a different axis than this
             | one (or probably it's along multiple axes).
             | 
             | I've always been more of a fastidious crafter than a "just
             | get it built" person, but I also struggle with a blank
             | page. I thrive on editing more than writing. Since forever,
             | I like to get out something that works or mostly works, and
             | then start carving on it until I like it.
             | 
             | LLMs have been helping me get some ink on the page, but
             | very little of what they suggest ends up in the final
             | product.
        
               | jprete wrote:
               | I've observed for a long time that there's a lot of value
               | in making a seed, a starting point, for the thing a group
               | needs to create. And that's exactly the reason - new text
               | is harder than criticism of the old.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Yep! But some people do seem to thrive more with a blank
               | page.
               | 
               | Supposedly Tom Robbins writes books entirely by putting
               | one word after another starting with the first one and
               | finishing with the last one. I don't know if that's
               | apocryphal, but I do think that's closer to the process
               | for some people.
               | 
               | But if I were a writer, I'd be squarely in the "get out a
               | first draft, it will be like pulling teeth, but just get
               | something down; then you can do the fun part of revising
               | and polishing".
        
           | deelly wrote:
           | I know exactly why I don't want to use ChatGPT.
           | 
           | I love to write code, I love to modify existing code too.
           | 
           | I do not love to read and then fix code after someone all the
           | time. With ChatGPT I have to read then understand then fix
           | code after ChatGPT every time.
           | 
           | Also, I do not love to fix code that often contains
           | hallucination.
        
             | bumbledraven wrote:
             | First, are you sure using GPT-4?
             | 
             | Second, have you tried pasting any syntax errors you get
             | back into the chat window? Usually, GPT will try to fix
             | them.
             | 
             | Third, you can have GPT write a function for you and then
             | write a different version of the function using a different
             | algorithm along with a test (e.g. a fuzz test) to check
             | whether two functions produce the same output given the
             | same input. This makes it less likely that an error will
             | slip through because both algorithms would have to be
             | produce the same incorrect output for the same input.
        
         | throjwbahrnd wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
       | reaperman wrote:
       | A lot of this seems like a nerd's fantasy. I share these
       | fantasies / desires, but I don't think its a sober, realistic
       | take on what's most likely.
       | 
       | > Even if an LLM could provide me with a recipe that perfectly
       | suits what I'm looking for, I wouldn't want to give up the
       | experience of using a recipe search engine and browsing through a
       | large collection of recipes.
       | 
       | Me too, but allrecipes.com has already switched from "search for
       | what you want" to "we'll tell you what you want". This is a UX
       | pattern that I hate but has proven a winner across many apps
       | lately - e.g. TikTok. Streaming music still allows you to build
       | playlists of specific songs, but auto-built radio stations are
       | filled with a suspicious amount of whatever the major labels are
       | pushing this quarter. Netflix/etc has shockingly fuzzy search
       | which largely pushes whatever they want you to watch rather than
       | what you're searching for. YouTube is mostly also push rather
       | than pull today.
       | 
       | I expect everything to continue moving that direction, against
       | the wishes of the power users. The majority of users seem to go
       | for the simpler UX, even if they sometimes complain about
       | quality.
       | 
       | > In an ideal world, I'd like to have the underlying model be a
       | swappable implementation detail. Llama 2 and similar developments
       | make me optimistic.
       | 
       | This is a pipe dream. LLMs may be hot-swappable by developers but
       | for 99% of apps + OSes this wont be a user-configurable thing.
        
         | vishnumenon wrote:
         | Author of the piece, and I... can't really argue with any of
         | this, tbh. I'll admit both those parts you called out were
         | probably heavily tinged by my own desires, and your more-sober
         | predictions are a very reasonable counterargument for what will
         | happen in the general case. I suppose, especially regarding
         | swappable LLMs, I _do_ only expect it to be an option for devs
         | or sophisticated users; I assume that most folks probably
         | wouldn't care, I'm just hoping there's enough of us that do
         | care that at least some options offer that swappable
         | functionality. Fwiw, I also use Linux (Fedora) as my daily-
         | driver, and I'd be more than content if the predictions from
         | this post came true in a similar vein, e.g. as an OSS option
         | (or family of OSS options) that some subset of users can opt to
         | use.
        
         | greenie_beans wrote:
         | > Me too, but allrecipes.com has already switched from "search
         | for what you want" to "we'll tell you what you want".
         | 
         | has anybody ever heard of a cookbook? it's the perfect ux for
         | this. especially if you have a lot of different ones. even
         | better if you collection is mostly physical copies.
        
           | reaperman wrote:
           | Yes but Allrecipes.com didn't cost me hundreds of dollars to
           | get 20-30 high quality cookbooks and had 10,000+ recipes.
           | More importantly, I could trust that the highest-rated
           | recipes, while not necessarily the "best", would be stupid-
           | proof. The only way that recipes got universally high
           | feedback from the average home cook on allrecipes.com is if
           | you could accidentally double or halve any ingredient and it
           | would still taste good. Cookbooks often contain recipes
           | which, while better, are also more particular and require a
           | higher skill floor.
           | 
           | I could also quickly filter against recipes which contained
           | ingredients I didn't like, or filter for recipes which used
           | ingredients I already have on hand.
        
           | vishnumenon wrote:
           | OP here, as someone who does love cooking, I've gone down
           | this route pretty heavily in the last few years - been
           | growing my collection of physical cookbooks and definitely
           | enjoy flipping through them in search of inspiration. So,
           | yeah, very much endorse the cookbook UX!
        
             | [deleted]
        
       | AmericanOP wrote:
       | I am actually surprised how little UI innovation has bubbled up.
        
         | forward-slashed wrote:
         | Same. If you want to talk about it dm me on X @eating_entropy.
        
       | jarulraj wrote:
       | Nice writeup! Here is another example of using LLMs is to
       | augmenting existing software that we are exploring --
       | specifically SQL database systems. We are using LLMs inside a SQL
       | query to power a "soft join" between SQL tables for when a
       | correspondence is only implied (e.g. different address formats,
       | etc.).                  --- Create a reference table that maps
       | neighborhoods to zipcodes using ChatGPT        CREATE TABLE
       | reference_table AS        SELECT parkname, parktype,
       | ChatGPT(               "Return the San Francisco neighborhood
       | name when provided with a zipcode. The         possible
       | neighborhoods are: {neighbourhoods_str}. The response should an
       | item from the         provided list. Do not add any more words.",
       | zipcode)         FROM postgres_db.recreational_park_dataset;
       | --- Map Airbnb listings to park        SELECT
       | airbnb_listing.neighbourhood        FROM
       | postgres_db.airbnb_listing          JOIN reference_table ON
       | airbnb_listing.neighbourhood = reference_table.response;
       | 
       | More details on LLM-powered joins and EvaDB:
       | https://medium.com/evadb-blog/augmenting-postgresql-with-ai-...,
       | https://github.com/georgia-tech-db/evadb
        
       | J_Shelby_J wrote:
       | The modern internet and modern app experience has become so
       | shitty. For example opening up Robinhood, transferring money from
       | a bank account, and buying a stock is hidden behind a multitude
       | of product driven dark patterns that turns what should be a low
       | cognitive load task into a high cognitive load task. This is true
       | for everything now days.
       | 
       | I predict llm based agents will be used as a 3rd party layer on
       | top of the modern web to work in users favor against
       | enshitification.
        
         | mywittyname wrote:
         | > I predict llm based agents will be used as a 3rd party layer
         | on top of the modern web to work in users favor against
         | enshitification.
         | 
         | I'm predicting the opposite -- LLMs will be used to turn Dark
         | Patterns into Vantablack Patterns.
        
         | alexyz12 wrote:
         | Wouldn't this avoid a lot of ad exposure that companies are
         | currently enjoying? Why would they want to give that up by
         | allowing you to use your llm instead?
        
         | intotheabyss wrote:
         | If we're talking about the future here, it makes much more
         | sense that you'd be buying stocks directly using currency
         | stored on your phones hardware wallet through a DEX like
         | Uniswap. In fact, you might just tell your phone that you want
         | to buy X amount of stock, and it would do it all for you
         | onchain.
        
       | politelemon wrote:
       | Some nice ideas here. I think some of these could see
       | realisation, depending very much on how accessible those LLMs
       | become.
       | 
       | At the moment I'm sure there are only a couple of user interfaces
       | that people know and will resist l reuse. After all they'll want
       | to take very little risk and use what they've seen works in other
       | places. The full screen ChatGPT style page, or those annoying
       | chatbot pop-ups that sit in the bottom right hand corner of sites
       | I don't care about. Something to keep an eye on and see what
       | emerges.
        
       | j-a-a-p wrote:
       | My prediction: knowledge will start to be reformatted into an LLM
       | directly and knowledge providers will stop publishing it
       | otherwise. Thus the chat interface will both improve and protect
       | knowledge access once the traditional formats are not published
       | anymore.
       | 
       | This will come together with the downfall of search, a prime
       | driver why so much knowledge was published on the web. Search
       | will start to drown in an explosion of generated AI content, and
       | the case to publish your knowledge for the sake of SEO marketing
       | will diminish.
        
         | throwuwu wrote:
         | If you can sell your knowledge to an existing audience and then
         | add a special category with a higher price for companies
         | training LLMs why would you take the financial hit of selling
         | to a single customer where they can now make demands of you as
         | your only source of revenue?
        
           | j-a-a-p wrote:
           | I don't get your reasoning. First not all knowledge is the
           | source of revenue. Many products and services are supported
           | by know how to implement, use and maintain. This kind of
           | knowledge can benefit from protection.
           | 
           | And if selling knowledge is the main revenue, why would
           | transferring it to an LLM mean losing the opportunity to sell
           | it multiple times? Au contraire.
           | 
           | For any category I assume the owner of the knowledge keeps in
           | control and my case is that a LLM can be beneficial for them.
        
         | christkv wrote:
         | Back to human curated web directories we go.
        
         | kordlessagain wrote:
         | Models still need to search. Tuning and reference augmented
         | generation go hand in hand.
        
           | j-a-a-p wrote:
           | Indeed, but search exist for humans. And if search becomes
           | unusable because the web gets filled with AI noise, humans
           | will stop using search.
           | 
           | And also for models, to feed them with data generated by AI
           | seems like an issue to me.
        
       | Traubenfuchs wrote:
       | I feel like us not being in that future right now means we won't
       | get there so fast.
       | 
       | What's missing to get all of this now? What recolutionary
       | research, product development that hasn't happened yet will
       | happen in the coming year?
       | 
       | To me it looks like LLM tech is stagnating, after the hype peak
       | we are close to the trough of disillusionment.
        
         | frabcus wrote:
         | Part of the problem is that GPT-4 inference is too expensive to
         | roll out at scale with current GPU availability and cost, so
         | even basic features aren't generally available (e.g. your word
         | processor writing for you) or if they are the model used is
         | cheaper and not as good.
         | 
         | Partly it just takes time - it will overall take (I think,
         | based on previous similar changes like the web) 20 years before
         | the ideas from the current generation of LLMs are built out and
         | integrated into products and made into new products and it is
         | all done. People and organisations take time to change.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | The problem with LLMs as I see it is that they make logic
         | errors all the time, and somehow LLMs themselves are not smart
         | enough to reason about their own reasoning.
        
       | geuis wrote:
       | Ok. I appreciate they didn't use Medium as a blog post. There's a
       | lot of good engineering knowledge currently locked behind the
       | Medium "sign in" interface. It's dumb and stupid.
       | 
       | But just to voice an opinion, please kill the lengthy paragraph
       | levels of fluff in blog posts. I don't want to say my opinion is
       | influenced by shitty blog recipes and research papers, but it is.
       | So stop it.
       | 
       | Just say what you need to say in bullet points at the beginning
       | and fill in the details further on.
        
         | dleeftink wrote:
         | While I agree some longform articles could use a bulleted
         | summary, I think the act of blog-writing is as much an exercise
         | of the writer coming to terms with the subject as us enjoying
         | the piece. Abridging an idea comes easier after exploring its
         | breadth and width, and I am supportive of anyone who tries it
         | out in the open.
        
           | CharlieDigital wrote:
           | I agree with this and often even find myself leaving drafts
           | around to read, re-read, and edit as I flesh out the ideas
           | and thoughts in my own brain.
           | 
           | Writing in long form is its own process of mental synthesis.
        
             | jprete wrote:
             | People who want AI to write for them don't understand this
             | process.
        
         | mediumsmart wrote:
         | You nailed it. In 2027 the AI is going to write the fluff for
         | the Author and then extract the bullet points for the reader -
         | Everybody saves time, winwin.
         | 
         |  _and for some there will be a "please elaborate" command of
         | course_
        
           | dleeftink wrote:
           | One man's fluff is another man's.. recommendation algorithm?
        
       | liampulles wrote:
       | My prediction is that LLMs are going to be used almost
       | exclusively for views over commands. They are simply too
       | unpredictable.
       | 
       | I'm more optimistic than the author about how useful LLMs may be
       | for chat based interfaces - I don't think it is appreciated in
       | tech how many people are (still) computer illiterate in the
       | world, and natural language can be a big improvement in usability
       | for the kinds of usecases these users need.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Take over simple system administration tasks such as (of course
       | giving it full shell access):
       | 
       | - install this nVidia driver and make it work with pytorch
       | 
       | - get this ethernet connection to $IP working
       | 
       | - schedule a daily cron job to make an incremental backup of this
       | harddrive, don't store duplicate files
        
         | klibertp wrote:
         | You've got nerves of steel. It can, and will, hallucinate sudo
         | rm -fr / as a step necessary for configuration at some point
         | (it's even easy to justify by, say, missing the mention of this
         | having to be in a chroot or a container). Russian roulette with
         | your data and setup on the line. Not sure I'm willing to try...
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | Step 1: use a filesystem that supports snapshots ;)
           | 
           | Anyway, if LLMs can write computer programs (see Copilot),
           | then surely they can do simple administrative tasks ...
        
       | munificent wrote:
       | _> Basically, the thinking goes, once we're able to express our
       | desires to computers in natural language, and once natural-
       | language agents can carry out actions on our behalf, we'd no
       | longer need the myriad of individual task-specific applications
       | that exist today. Personally, I neither believe in nor desire
       | this outcome._
       | 
       | Strong agree.
       | 
       | I find it very telling that the kind of people who advocate for
       | chat-like software are often managers and executives. Sure, if
       | the kind of person you are is one that enjoys giving verbal
       | orders to people, it makes perfect sense that that's the kind of
       | job you'll seek, and the kind of software you'll want.
       | 
       | But for the rest of us creative hands-on people who like to feel
       | that we're making things through direct manipulation, talking to
       | a computer is just about the least joyful activity I can imagine.
        
       | christkv wrote:
       | I want to talk to your supervisor. No problem I'll connect you.
       | Hi I'm supervisor bot how can I help you?
        
       | jaynetics wrote:
       | > Even if an LLM could provide me with a recipe that perfectly
       | suits what I'm looking for, I wouldn't want to give up the
       | experience of using a recipe search engine and browsing through a
       | large collection of recipes. Even if an LLM could provide me with
       | restaurant recommendations based on my preferences, I'd still
       | seek out a map-based UX for exploring the variety present in my
       | vicinity. The desire to replace all UX with LLMs seems like a
       | desire to replace all serendipity with efficiency, and I think
       | (or hope) that such a transition is much more appealing in theory
       | than it would be in practice.
       | 
       | I guess the question is: how much of our web or software use is
       | leisurely browsing (reading news or HN would be other likely
       | candidates for this category) and how much is more task-like,
       | e.g. send a message to some friends, add a note to a specific
       | list, order some groceries?
       | 
       | We might also want to consider how much of a role such private
       | use of software plays in shaping UX trends. If business software
       | (sheets, Photoshop, CAD etc.) can be sped up with chat input, it
       | will be, and people will be expected to use the quickest UI.
       | 
       | This is not to say that browsing will disappear, but I can
       | totally see it being relegated to a second class UI in the long
       | run, even in applications where it's currently the obvious
       | choice, just because our default UX expectations will be
       | different.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | > If business software (sheets, Photoshop, CAD etc.) can be
         | sped up with chat input, it will be, and people will be
         | expected to use the quickest UI.
         | 
         | I have a hard time seeing chat input become the primary UI for
         | that class of applications, unless you can delegate complete
         | tasks to it. As an analogy, for driving a car, I can see voice
         | commands replacing the steering wheel _if_ we reach full self-
         | driving capabilities, but absent that, the steering wheel and
         | gas /breaking pedals will remain the more efficient and
         | practical UI (even ignoring safety concerns).
        
           | xbmcuser wrote:
           | I think the biggest change will be users will increase my
           | parents don't know how to use Photoshop are not tech inclined
           | they won't be touching up photos of their grand child. But
           | give them an option of just asking the app to do something
           | and they will as the learning curve goes down dramatically
        
         | particlesy wrote:
         | We wrote about Jane using Particlesy Retrieval-Augmented-
         | Generation platform to create and share Recipe chatbots with
         | her friends - https://www.particlesy.com/2023/07/25/rag-in-the-
         | kitchen-jan...
        
         | CharlieDigital wrote:
         | > I guess the question is: how much of our web or software use
         | is leisurely browsing
         | 
         | I think the author's sentiment here is different. There's a
         | personal subjectiveness when it comes to things like recipes.
         | It could come down to the presentation (photos, narrative), an
         | added ingredient in one that piques your interest and curiosity
         | (a chili recipe with dark cocoa powder?!), or other subjective
         | difference that is experienced differently by each of us.
         | 
         | The other aspect is mental bookmarking or "what ifs". Maybe
         | I'll try _this_ recipe _this_ time, but I might come across
         | other recipes I want to try some other time or I 'll find an
         | author that I really vibe with. That process of discovery is
         | lost with LLMs today
        
       | croo wrote:
       | I'll tell you my vision which is kinda long term - like 20-30
       | year from now on. I think the future is that everyone will have
       | their own personalized AI assistant on their phone. Internet as
       | it is will be mostly useless because only robots will be able to
       | wade through the generated shit ocean and the next generation
       | will see it as the current see the TV - unimportant old boring
       | low-entropy data which is not entertaining anymore.
       | 
       | There will be a paradigm shift where our-customers-are-ai apps
       | appear and most stuff will need to have an API which makes AI
       | able to connect and use those services effortlessly and without
       | error because who don't want to tell his assistant to "send 5$ to
       | Jill for the pizza"? There will be money in base AI models you
       | can choose(subscribe to) and what it can and cannot do for you.
       | It will still be riddled with ads and now it's your personal
       | assistant who can push any agenda to you.
       | 
       | Operation systems will become a layer under the assistant ai.
       | 
       | You will still talk on/to your phone.
       | 
       | I guess free software will be more important than ever.
       | 
       | Free ai assistants will be available and computing power will be
       | there to run it on your phone but all the shit we've seen with
       | open Vs closed source, Linux Vs Windows, walled gardens whatnot
       | will go another round this time with free open public training
       | data assistants Vs closed-but-oh-so-less-clumsy ones.
       | 
       | Security problem will be plenty like how to hide your AI
       | assistant custom fingerprint? Authentication and authorization
       | system for AI? How much someone else personal assistant worth?
       | How to steal or defend it?
        
         | tines wrote:
         | Do you think that this will all function as one giant
         | homogenizing force at the societal level? The AIs will all be
         | trained on the same data, and so will have the same opinions,
         | beliefs, persuasions, etc. It seems like everyone having AIs
         | which are mostly the same will maximize exploitation, and
         | minimize exploration, of ideas.
        
           | _Algernon_ wrote:
           | Is that any different than media before the internet consumed
           | it all? Media consisted of a couple of news stations, a
           | couple of TV stations and that was mostly it.
           | 
           | I'm also not sure that the recent broadening of media has
           | been a net benefit to society. Look at the degree of
           | polarization in recent years. At a certain point
           | heterogeneity is no longer a societal good.
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | There are a million different beliefs, opinions etc in the
           | corpus LLMs get trained on and they can predict all of it. It
           | doesn't have to have the same opinions.
        
             | tines wrote:
             | Sure, but the probabilities of those beliefs won't be the
             | same as each other, and they will be the same between all
             | users, so that doesn't address my point.
        
               | og_kalu wrote:
               | again that's up to who's training the models and/or the
               | user. Bing is GPT-4, same exact pre-training but it
               | sounds nothing like chatGPT-4.
               | 
               | LLM probabilities are dynamic. They change based on
               | context. If you want it to behave in a certain way then
               | you provide the context to engineer that.
               | 
               | a particular belief system being most present in training
               | doesn't mean an LLM will always shift probabilities to
               | that system. Such prediction strategies would be awful to
               | fulfil its training objective. Getting it to shift to
               | even the most niche belief is as simple as providing the
               | context to do so.
        
               | tines wrote:
               | > again that's up to who's training the models and/or the
               | user.
               | 
               | True, but training is expensive, I imagine that only a
               | few actors will train the popular LLMs, exactly as we are
               | seeing today.
               | 
               | > LLM probabilities are dynamic. They change based on
               | context. If you want it to behave in a certain way then
               | you provide the context to engineer that. ... Getting it
               | to shift to even the most niche belief is as simple as
               | providing the context to do so.
               | 
               | I thought so too, until I tried to get it to agree that 1
               | + 1 = 3. It would not do that, no matter how much context
               | I provided, likely because the probabilities in the
               | underlying data were so skewed.
        
         | smokel wrote:
         | In 20-30 years I most certainly do not want to use a phone
         | anymore.
         | 
         | I grew up without the things, and boy was that fun.
        
           | xmprt wrote:
           | Do you ever wonder if that's because of the growing up part
           | and not the phone part? Growing up for most people tends to
           | be pretty fun and exciting compared to adult life. And with
           | or without phones, the 80s and 90s were a very different time
           | when it came to kids being able to go out and play outside on
           | their own. Move to a country where it's common for kids to
           | play outside and you'll see that times aren't much different
           | even though kids all have phones. In a way, it's easier
           | because now you're just one text and location share away from
           | meeting up with them.
        
             | redwall_hp wrote:
             | Growing up in the time where Palm and Windows CE were a
             | thing, I knew having a capable pocket sized computer was an
             | inevitability, and couldn't wait for it. And it's great: I
             | would fucking hate not having modern mobile banking,
             | communications tools, maps, calendars and the ability to
             | look anything up immediately.
             | 
             | The internet was more fun pre-smartphone, but that's
             | because of the demographic change brought on by a new
             | Eternal September, not the existence of mobile computers.
             | We went from the internet being the domain of interesting,
             | creative people who made things for fun to "basically
             | everybody."
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | Anything long term is meaningless to think about, besides just
         | the fun.
         | 
         | AI on it's current track is going to so radically reshape
         | society that it will be totally unrecognizable to people today.
         | Society in it's current form makes no sense when there are
         | smarter and cheaper non-human workers available.
        
           | semi-extrinsic wrote:
           | There is a huge number of people - hundreds of millions -
           | employed today that could quite literally be replaced with
           | small shell scripts. Yet they are not being replaced. There
           | is no reason why AI will not similarly fail to bring forth
           | the revolution.
        
             | thfuran wrote:
             | Which people exactly?
        
         | wbm1 wrote:
         | An LLM/AI companion based on your ledger, that grows and
         | evolves with you, acting as a sort of Socratic daimon, a
         | psychologic twin, assistant, advisor, and sparring partner.
         | Like a journal that talks back and thinks with you. It'd need
         | to be only personally accessible and safe/private. Biometric
         | access and local running could solve this.
        
           | croo wrote:
           | Exactly! Most will have a name given by its owner, a pet of
           | sort but much more in function. You will need to reach a
           | certain age to get it, the beginning of adulthood.
           | 
           | People will mourn them and there will be real world AI
           | cementeries.
           | 
           | Diffie Whitfield envisioned an internet highway where every
           | computer is connected to every other in 1974 and then went on
           | to find out how to do that communication in secure
           | channels.[1]
           | 
           | I think my vision is quite tame and deductible from the
           | current situation compared to his.
           | 
           | [1] according to Singh Simon: The Code Book
        
             | InitialLastName wrote:
             | > You will need to reach a certain age to get it, the
             | beginning of adulthood.
             | 
             | Not a chance will whatever capitalist figures out how to do
             | this allow a measly cultural restriction keep them from
             | pushing that age deep into childhood.
        
             | wbm1 wrote:
             | The more personal value it holds, the more risk it has.
             | Imagine gaining access to this digital daimon of someone,
             | it'll be like accessing their most inner thoughts. The
             | upside however could be exponential personal growth. I've
             | seen many examples of real life twins that basically live
             | as a superhuman individual. E.g. the Liberman twins. This
             | tech could be a digital equivalent of that.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | In outright totalitarian countries government access to
               | your agent will be mandated.
               | 
               | In more democratic countries we'll see lots of suits and
               | court cases over getting access to these agents and
               | assigning intent to your IRL actions based on your
               | 'thoughts' with the AI.
        
               | brandall10 wrote:
               | Small correction - Daniil and David Liberman are just
               | brothers, not twins.
        
           | intended wrote:
           | This is the dream. That said - Gen AI on its own wont get us
           | to helpers/Daemons.
           | 
           | Right now, if you want to build something like a daemon you
           | will need multiple agents. When a task needs to be delegated,
           | the central control system needs to be able to spin up a few
           | processes and get them going.
           | 
           | You can do this right now. You can create an ensemble of
           | personalities/roles (jr dev, sr dev, project manager) and
           | have them plan.
           | 
           | They do a good job, if you are monitoring it. You can break
           | up the plan into chunks, spin up more instances, distribute
           | chunks and have those instances work on it.
           | 
           | Sadly this cant happen, and I think these are fundamental
           | limits to Generative AI. Right now personas just go ahead and
           | "pretend work" - they say we "I am now going to go and come
           | up with a project plan".
           | 
           | You have a dependency where output from all prompts must be
           | actionable, or verifiable. If output is off, then it
           | snowballs.
           | 
           | This is not a tooling, or context window issue. This is a
           | hard limit to what Generation can achieve. Its impressive
           | that we got this level of emergence, but when you look at
           | output in detail, its flawed.
           | 
           | This is the verification issue, and verification (or
           | disproving something) is the essence of science.
           | 
           | Maybe something can be added to it, or entirely new
           | structures can be built - but generation on its own will not
           | take us over this threshold.
           | 
           | Right now, LLMs are more like actors. They are very good
           | actors, but you dont get your prescriptions from actors.
        
         | hirundo wrote:
         | > the next generation will see it as the current see the TV -
         | unimportant old boring low-entropy data which is not
         | entertaining anymore.
         | 
         | Don't you mean high-entropy data? High entropy data would be
         | less orderly, more compressible, and have a lower signal to
         | noise ratio ... like TV shows compared to a textbook.
        
           | inimino wrote:
           | Low entropy data is what's more compressible. High entropy
           | means unpredictable, which could mean high noise (like TV
           | static which is incompressible) or high signal as GP
           | intended.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | hirundo wrote:
             | Thank you. I just learned about Shannon Entropy and that it
             | grows with information content. The negative sign in the
             | formula is due to the negative log of the normalized
             | population probability.
             | 
             | https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/395121/how-
             | entropy-...
        
               | inimino wrote:
               | Yes. You can also take the log of the reciprocal
               | probability (or "luck") and then you don't need the
               | negative sign. This value is the expected number of
               | trials you would need for the outcome to occur once. I
               | find this presentation a bit more intuitive. See also
               | Boltzmann entropy S = k log W which takes this form.
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | Entropy is the "signal" within the noise.
        
             | tines wrote:
             | Not necessarily. Pure noise has high entropy.
        
         | jprete wrote:
         | For a bit there it didn't sound too bad!
        
           | realce wrote:
           | You'll be a God, but a God who has to look at ads all the
           | time, and your angels will... also be ads.
        
             | bostonsre wrote:
             | If your interface to the internet is a locally running open
             | source ai assistant, couldn't you just tell it to strip out
             | ads from the information it returns? It could change the
             | internet economy some.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Eh, if OpenAI gets their way, your local AI will be
               | banned as being too dangerous.
        
               | Tagbert wrote:
               | If you have the right subscription level for your daemon.
        
       | tarasglek wrote:
       | @vishnumenon, thanks for writing this up. I might do a followup
       | blog on this, for now here is a comment :)
       | 
       | This article is close to my heart as I've been working on
       | craftcraft.org with similar perspective.
       | 
       | 1. Chat UX Consolidation: I agree that having crappy chat UIs
       | everywhere is very suboptimal. Perhaps having a complete UX as a
       | component is another solution here. We took many months to get
       | http://chatcraft.org from prototype to an ergonomic productivity
       | tool. Highly unlikely such attention will be paid to every chat
       | UI integration.
       | 
       | 2. Persistence Across Uses. This one is tricky. We keep all of
       | our history client-side...but after using it this way, having a
       | shared history server-side and having it pulled in as relevant
       | context would be a nice improvement.
       | 
       | 3. Universal Access: It's super weird to have LLMs restricted to
       | providing output that you cut/paste. We have integrated pretty
       | slick openai function interface to allow calling out to custom
       | modules. So far we integrated: pdf conversion/ingestion,
       | clickhouse analytics and system administration using a
       | webrtc<->shell connector. Demo here:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNsxDMMbm64
       | 
       | I've also investigated teaching LLMs consume UIs via
       | accessibility UIs. I think this is underexplored. Blog post on
       | that here: https://taras.glek.net/post/gpt-aria-experiment/
       | 
       | 3b. LocalLLMs. These have been underwhelming so far vs openai
       | ones(except maybe WizardCoder). Industry seems to be
       | standardizing around openai-compatible REST interface(ala S3
       | clones). We have some support for this in a wip pull req, but not
       | much reason to do that yet as the local models are relatively
       | weak for interactive use.
       | 
       | 4. Dynamically Generated UI & Higher Level Prompting: I do a lot
       | of exploration by asking http://chatcraft.org to generate some
       | code and run it to validate some idea. Friend of mine built basic
       | UX for recruiting pipelines, where one can ingest resume pdfs
       | into chatcraft and via custom system prompt have chatcraft become
       | a supervised recruiting automation. We also do a lot generation
       | of mermaid architecture diagrams when communicating about code. I
       | think there a lot of room for UX exploration here.
       | 
       | Now a few categories that weren't covered:
       | 
       | 1. Multi-modal interaction: It's so nice to be able to have chat
       | with the assistant and then switch to voice while driving or to
       | input some foreign language. I think extending UX from chat to
       | voice and even video-based gestures will make for an even cooler
       | AI assistant experience.
       | 
       | 2. Non-linearity in conversations: Bots are not human, so it
       | makes sense to undo steps in conversation, fork them, re-run them
       | with different input params and different model params. Most of
       | my conversations in chatcraft are me trying to beat llm into
       | submission. Example: tuning chan-of-density prompt
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vj0zwP3uBs&feature=youtu.be
       | 
       | Overall, really appreciate your blog post. Interesting to see how
       | our intuition overlaps.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Your back button does not work!
        
         | forward-slashed wrote:
         | Really good stuff, but some minor things: your url doesn't
         | work; went to your twitter profile, and it seems you meant
         | https://chatcraft.org? Also, you are un-dm-able on twitter. (I
         | am @eating_entropy if you want to talk more)
        
           | tarasglek wrote:
           | that's the right link :)
           | 
           | would be great to chat on discord
           | https://discord.gg/JsVe9ZuZCn
           | 
           | (updated discord link)
        
             | jarulraj wrote:
             | The discord link seems to be not working. Just a heads up.
             | 
             | The YOLO example on your Github page is super interesting.
             | We are finding it easier to get LLMs to write functions
             | with a more constrained function interface in EvaDB. Here
             | is an example of an YOLO function in EvaDB:
             | https://github.com/georgia-tech-
             | db/evadb/blob/staging/evadb/....
             | 
             | Once the function is loaded, it can be used in queries in
             | this way:                 SELECT id, Yolo(data)
             | FROM ObjectDetectionVideos          WHERE id < 20
             | LIMIT 5;            SELECT id           FROM
             | ObjectDetectionVideos           WHERE ['pedestrian', 'car']
             | <@ Yolo(data).label;
             | 
             | Would love to hear your thoughts on ChatCraft and a more
             | constrained function interface.
        
               | tarasglek wrote:
               | I'm actually doing a lot of work with databases and LLMs.
               | 
               | I enjoyed postgresml and evadb has been on my radar to
               | try next. Would love to connect.
               | 
               | (updated discord link)
        
       | alluro2 wrote:
       | I was hoping for some clever ideas about direction of software /
       | UIs, and new use-cases for LLMs / AI, since for now I'm still
       | struggling and have a lack of vision, it seems.
       | 
       | For example, I work on developing a logistics management and
       | route optimization platform. If I try to envision new features
       | that could be unlocked through AI or just LLMs, I basically get
       | nothing back from my feeble brain, that I would fit into this
       | category. E.g. - automate incident handling (e.g. driver broke
       | down, handle redirection of other driver, handover of goods,
       | reoptimize routes) - but the implementation would be just a
       | decision tree based on a couple of toggles and parameters - no AI
       | there? Other things that come to mind - we already use ML for
       | prediction of travel times and service durations - it's a known
       | space, that I refuse to call AI.
       | 
       | Apart from serving as an alternative and sometimes more efficient
       | interface for data queries through NLP (e.g. "tell me which
       | customers I had margin lower than 20% on, due to long loading
       | times and mispackaged goods" - even then, all the data already
       | needs to be there in appropriate shape, and it's just replacing a
       | couple of clicks), I really fail to see new use-cases / features
       | that the current state / hype for AI / LLMs unlocks.
       | 
       | Am I just lacking vision? Are there opportunities I'm grossly
       | overlooking?
        
         | 6510 wrote:
         | Turn the company jingle into a heavily distorted guitar track,
         | make a database with 3d models of drivers, locations and drone
         | footage, from departure to delivery including the people
         | driving desks, then have the llm generate a movie with
         | narration in a dark voice. Dealing with broken down vehicles is
         | an opportunity to brag and show off.
        
         | jarulraj wrote:
         | Can LLMs help in cleaning up the logistics database -- like
         | handling different variants of an address? Here is an example:
         | https://medium.com/evadb-blog/augmenting-postgresql-with-
         | ai-....
        
         | vorpalhex wrote:
         | Problem identification.
         | 
         | Given all the log data for the last N packages, analyze for
         | anomalies and hypothesis as to their cause. Eg is there a
         | specific shipper, warehouse or driver causing problems?
         | 
         | ML does well when you have too much data for a human to wrangle
         | and the search target is well described.
        
         | CaptRon wrote:
         | Try asking chatgpt for some ideas.
        
           | sanderjd wrote:
           | Unironically, I've done this sort of thing.
           | 
           | Not too impressed with the results though.
        
             | suoduandao3 wrote:
             | Ideas are probably the last thing humans will delegate to
             | AI. We have needs and wants that Ideas help us meet, AI
             | only sets priorities in a reactive way.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Yeah it's a pretty interesting experience actually,
               | trying to use it for idea generation.
               | 
               | It's like talking to a very well informed and generally
               | competent person ... who has no spark of creativity or
               | insight whatsoever.
               | 
               | This does vary product to product - some are
               | excruciatingly boring _by design_ - but I think they 're
               | universally uninteresting just to different degrees.
        
       | totallywrong wrote:
       | My guess is that LLMs will become an absolutely incredible tool,
       | to the point of being indispensable, _for software developers_.
       | This demographic is highly biased and often magnify their
       | usefulness based on that. For everyone else, they will continue
       | to be an advanced search engine  / copywriting assistant.
        
       | davemateer wrote:
       | https://chat.openai.com (GPT-3.5) to summerise this article:
       | 
       | - summerise (then paste in the text)
       | 
       | - explain like I'm 10
       | 
       | Gave (the highlights)
       | 
       | -- ai here
       | 
       | 1. Chat consolidation
       | 
       | 2. Remembering stuff
       | 
       | 3. Access to Everything
       | 
       | 4. Making things easier
       | 
       | 5. Being helpful
       | 
       | -- human here below
       | 
       | I'd love for the author to be right in his predictions. Arguably
       | current AI has made understanding this article '4. easier' for me
       | to understand already.
        
       | IanCal wrote:
       | > I don't believe that natural language is an adequate medium for
       | conveying instructions with the precision required for many
       | applications. Moreover, the "inefficiency" involved in carrying
       | out many digital tasks "manually" is a core driver of the joy
       | that comes with using computers (for me and, I assume, for at
       | least some subset of others). Even if an LLM could provide me
       | with a recipe that perfectly suits what I'm looking for, I
       | wouldn't want to give up the experience of using a recipe search
       | engine and browsing through a large collection of recipes.
       | 
       | But searching for places to eat and recipes to make is very much
       | _not_ a precise search.
       | 
       | IMO the reason _chat_ and not _input text and get an answer_ is
       | so powerful is that it allows messy search with iterative
       | refinement - just like talking to an expert. Just  "chat input,
       | result given" doesn't have that.
       | 
       | I want to tell a recipe search I'm after a healthy light thing as
       | it's hot. I want to get back options and then say "I don't really
       | like cucumber though" and have it get rid of cucumber heavy
       | recipes but leave in some salads and say "look this recipe has
       | cucumber in but it'll be fine without it". Or "you asked for a
       | chicken recipe but here's one with pork that should sub in just
       | fine".
       | 
       | For restaurants I want to get back some options and tell it
       | "that's too expensive, this is a quick thing" and get back more
       | hole-in-the-wall things. Tell it "Hmm, something spicy sounds
       | good but I've been to those Indian restaurants before, I'm after
       | something new" and get a recommendation for the Ethiopian place
       | in town.
       | 
       | > The current state of having a chat-ish UX that's specific to
       | each tool or website (e.g. a Documentation Chat on a library
       | documentation page, a VSCode extension, a Google Bard
       | integration, a really-badly-implemented chatbot in my banking
       | app, etc.) doesn't make any single one of those experiences more
       | enjoyable, effective, or entertaining;
       | 
       | Coding chat in my editor absolutely makes coding more effective.
       | I want heavy integration around how it edits text, not a general
       | chat widget.
       | 
       | > The idealized role of persistence in LLM UX is also fairly
       | obvious: it's easy to imagine an LLM-powered experience that
       | remembers and "understands" all my previous interactions with it,
       | and uses that information to better help me with whatever my
       | current task is
       | 
       | I sort of agree, but I absolutely detest hidden state about me. I
       | _should not_ alter my behaviour just because I 'm worried about
       | how that'll impact things. You see this regularly, I may avoid
       | some weird youtube video (e.g. to see a weird flat earth take)
       | because I don't really want the hassle of having loads of weird
       | conspiracy stuff promoted or having to manually remove it from
       | some list.
       | 
       | Having said that, recipe search that remembers I hate cucumbers
       | is great.
       | 
       | I wonder if manually curated context will in general be better?
       | Or maybe just for me.
       | 
       | > I'm interacting with UXes that can remember and utilize my
       | previously expressed preferences, desires, goals, and
       | information, using that underlying memory across different use
       | cases seems like low-hanging fruit for drastically reducing
       | friction.
       | 
       | The tricky part here is I switch contexts and don't want them
       | bleeding into each other. My preferences for interaction around
       | my kids and while at work are very different.
       | 
       | > A small-scale and developer-centric example: I use GitHub
       | Copilot in VSCode, and I was recently implementing a library with
       | documentation that featured LLM-powered Q&A, and it felt bizarre
       | to have two LLM-mediated experiences open that each had exactly
       | half the info needed to solve my problem.
       | 
       | I think here a split between _data sources_ and _frontends_ is
       | key. This interaction is awkward, and should be combined (copilot
       | should be able to reach out to that documentation).
       | 
       | > locally runnable and open models are no match for GPT-4 (etc.),
       | 
       | It's going to be more efficient to move compute to central
       | places, the less they're used per person the more efficient it
       | will be to have one central location process everyones things. A
       | short taxi ride per week is cheaper than owning a car. However as
       | uses grow (e.g. proactive llms), will this shift the equation
       | towards locally runnable ones? A few queries a day and you're
       | obviously better off not buying a h100. Constantly running things
       | all day and if prices fall maybe that'll change.
        
       | ilaksh wrote:
       | All of this makes sense.
       | 
       | I would like to add my own prediction for 2027. I believe in the
       | next 4 years, much more comfortable and capable mixed reality
       | glasses and goggles may be somewhat common. Also AI generation
       | and streaming of realistic avatars will have advanced. Quite
       | possibly this will use low-latency Wifi to stream from a PC.
       | 
       | So if you want, you will be able to have a fairly realistic
       | representation of the AI as a synthetic person in the room with
       | you when you put the MR device on. It will have eye contact and
       | seem quite similar to a real person (if you want). You will be
       | able to just talk to it.
       | 
       | Another thing that might become popular could be larger 3d
       | monitors. The type that have some stereoscopic effect tuned to
       | your exact position. So your AI helper might just live in a
       | virtual window or doorway or something like that.
       | 
       | You can actually already build something a bit like this, at
       | least in 2d, without really inventing anything complex. You would
       | use things like a HeyGen or D-ID API and maybe Eleven Labs or
       | something. You won't get eye contact or a realistic 3d avatar
       | that seems to be sitting on your couch, and there will be pauses
       | waiting for it to respond. But theoretically, fast-forwarding
       | several years, those things are not at all insurmountable.
        
         | qwertox wrote:
         | I really doubt it. Modified glasses are too much of a change,
         | compared to earbuds which can be the bridge to the phone in
         | order to provide a conversational assistant. For normal use
         | there is almost no benefit of having something visual available
         | without the need for manual interaction, which is the benefit
         | of glasses compared to the smartphone screen.
         | 
         | But being able to have a verbal communication with a chatbot is
         | of immense help. It can be used while driving, while cleaning
         | or doing anything else which requires the use of your hands or
         | while they are dirty or covered with gloves.
         | 
         | These glasses will be expensive for at least 4 more years and
         | most of us just won't feel the need to invest in it.
        
         | badcppdev wrote:
         | When we can interact by talking to a 2D cartoon in a Zoom call
         | then I guess we'll be X% towards your 2027 vision.
        
           | BoxOfRain wrote:
           | I'm not overly familiar with it but isn't this already a
           | genre of gaming YouTuber?
        
           | pomtato wrote:
           | You can already do that with praktika.ai , they're in ed-tech
           | and got ai avatars of sorts that you can "video-call" to :D
        
         | sensanaty wrote:
         | I'd rather chew gravel every day for the rest of my life than
         | be forced into the hell of wearing a headset so that I can have
         | my useless morning standups in a virtual room rather than on a
         | 2D screen.
        
         | thfuran wrote:
         | 2037 maybe, but four years isn't very long.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Four years is an eternity in software, especially now that we
           | can have LLMs write the first draft.
           | 
           | Transformers were only invented six years ago after all. Some
           | people are even very optimistically projecting that we'll
           | reach the singularity in the next three.
        
             | ffgjgf1 wrote:
             | Feels a bit like dot.com
        
             | thfuran wrote:
             | Making comfortable and capable mixed reality glasses common
             | is not primarily a software problem. In fact, I'd say the
             | challenges are almost entirely unrelated to software,
             | though there probably would be a need for a richer software
             | ecosystem designed for mixed reality for them to really
             | take off.
        
       | theknocker wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | prakhar897 wrote:
       | I also wrote an article a while ago in the same vein.
       | https://prakgupta.com/blog/envisioning_a_future_with_gpt
       | 
       | The largest problem with a gpt future imo would be bot networks
       | creating manufactured outrage. these will shift the decisions of
       | policymakers towards those who controls these networks ie big
       | corp.
        
         | chx wrote:
         | Nowhere near that, the largest problem will be when the
         | misinformation will be manufactured on an unprecedented scale
         | by these LLM. In the US alone some 300 000 people died from
         | homemade artisan anti vaxx propaganda, it's very scary to think
         | what will happen when GPT switches that to industrial scale.
         | Doctorow called them "plausible sentence generators" and that's
         | indeed what they are and it being plausible will make it
         | deadly.
         | 
         | https://www.npr.org/2022/05/16/1099290062/how-many-of-americ...
         | 
         | > As the U.S. marks one million people dead from COVID-19,
         | scientists suggest that nearly one third of those deaths could
         | have been prevented if more people had chosen to be vaccinated.
        
           | andsoitis wrote:
           | > In the US alone some 300 000 people died from homemade
           | artisan anti vaxx propaganda, it's very scary to think what
           | will happen when GPT switches that to industrial scale.
           | 
           | From a human moral viewpoint this is indeed despicable and
           | worth considering mitigation.
           | 
           | I am optimistic though that in the grand unfolding that
           | natural selection brings, it will pressure an elevation of
           | rationality, but with the cost of some human suffering.
        
             | chx wrote:
             | Natural selection is not fast enough. It operates over many
             | generations but we know climate change is driving the
             | expansion of zoonotic diseases. Consider within the last
             | generation -- generally understood to be 25 years -- we had
             | a SARS outbreak, swine flu, SARS-CoV-2, mpox outbreak just
             | to name the big ones. It is extremely likely we will have
             | more within the next 25.
        
       | keskival wrote:
       | The predictions the article makes are a bit unimaginative and
       | shallow. The timeline is also somewhat extremely long. It's more
       | like late 2023 than 2027.
       | 
       | So, Language Model UX in 2024 according to me:
       | 
       | - Pervasive: Virtual assistants are omnipresent, and integrate
       | everything together. Like Alexa that is actually intelligent and
       | can for example make you a custom app for interfacing with your
       | banking following your preferences on-the-fly for you only. Web
       | apps become meaningless as you are getting the UI you need
       | customized, tailor-made, live when you need it. Agents go with
       | you in smartphones or project to any device nearby. No need for
       | authentication, bots know you.
       | 
       | - Agentic: They will negotiate with each others all the time and
       | present a unified interface to you no matter which system you are
       | interacting with. The air is full of silent chatter. Things move
       | when you aren't watching. Progress is decoupled from human input,
       | attention and care.
       | 
       | - Web searches and such are for bots. Answering phones is for
       | bots. Making calls is for bots. Any person still grasping at
       | these kinds of interfaces will notice all emails they get are
       | from bots, and all emails they send are instantly answered by
       | bots. Just let go, let the machines handle that, which brings me
       | to:
       | 
       | - Intermediation: No matter what you do, a bot will help you with
       | it. Swiping Tinder? Don't bother, a bot does it better for you.
       | Just lay back and relax. Ads become targeted to bots and
       | truthful, because the bots won't forgive misrepresentation, ever.
        
       | lewhoo wrote:
       | I hope all the bold and rapid changes predicted here won't become
       | reality so fast. I think the societal changes needed to somehow
       | still function as a civilization will be too much for vast masses
       | of people to handle resulting in some drastic decisions. I'm
       | pretty pessimistic about this and can't shake it off, call it
       | Yudkowsky syndrome.
        
       | suoduandao3 wrote:
       | One thing I hope we'll see is that the people with the big LLM
       | servers try to be platforms as opposed to one-stop shops [1].
       | With AI getting better and better at executing, I think best case
       | we'll see an era where good novel ideas are the currency of the
       | realm[2]. That would be great - coming up with novel ideas and
       | thinking deeply about what we should be pursuing is about the
       | best alignment with human nature I can imagine. But it can only
       | happen if access to the LLMs themselves is cheap and hacker-
       | friendly.
       | 
       | [1] there's good arguments to evolve a business model in that
       | direction, e.g. Apple beating blackberry not through superior
       | hardware but a superior app store.
       | 
       | [2] I'd be remiss not to plug my own recent oevre here,
       | https://eucyclos.wixsite.com/eucyclos/contact-8-1 inspired by the
       | difficulty of conveying positive emotions over screens. Advice
       | from people who have built this kind of thing successfully is of
       | course welcome.
        
       | sgt101 wrote:
       | 9/10 requests for a simple sql query get a working query.
       | 
       | This isn't enough to enable a useful interface.
       | 
       | It takes a lot of scaffolding to get an llm powered interface to
       | actually work.
        
         | jarulraj wrote:
         | You might be interested in another way to use LLMs inside a SQL
         | query. For example, LLMs can be used to power a "soft join"
         | between SQL tables for when a correspondence is only implied
         | (e.g. different address formats, etc.).
         | 
         | More details here: https://medium.com/evadb-blog/augmenting-
         | postgresql-with-ai-...
        
         | liampulles wrote:
         | I'm actively trying to scaffold an LLM for business usecases
         | and my experience totally echoes this. I can tweak the prompt
         | for a very representative set of training data, and then it
         | vomits at a seemingly normal new case.
        
           | arthurcolle wrote:
           | have you tried to train a model based on your expectation
           | context data and the outputs you want?
        
       | cheevly wrote:
       | like Cheevly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNCVO87cbHQ
        
       | avindroth wrote:
       | This space is surprisingly under-explored. Any idea in this space
       | is basically new.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | euroderf wrote:
       | Perhaps I'm out to lunch here, but...
       | 
       | No mention of the role of software requirements ? Has prompt
       | engineering somehow replaced them ?
        
       | j-a-a-p wrote:
       | Title is misleading. More like what is under the hood in the near
       | future, a technical perspective. I thought to find some
       | inspiration on what kind of software we can expect.
       | 
       | Nevertheless a nice and agreeable read.
        
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