[HN Gopher] Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
        
       Author : geox
       Score  : 130 points
       Date   : 2023-09-13 19:36 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.science.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.science.org)
        
       | naikrovek wrote:
       | yeah, yeah, we know.
       | 
       | there's money to be made, though, so we ain't stopping.
        
         | readthenotes1 wrote:
         | It's more like there are babies to be made. After all, if we
         | stopped procreating so prolifically, things would right
         | themselves fairly quickly
        
           | casparvitch wrote:
           | One and the same, economic growth has lead us here & economic
           | growth has been highly tied to population growth.
        
       | simmerup wrote:
       | Someone should tell these scientists that everythings actually
       | fine because we can just crank up the A/C
        
         | swader999 wrote:
         | Or shade and stay hydrated. Cold kills orders of magnitude more
         | than heat does.
        
       | Liquix wrote:
       | > Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to...
       | 
       | Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not
       | governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever
       | has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in
       | their own best interest.
       | 
       | To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more
       | power = good. To the US government, more military equipment =
       | more power = good. At the executive level of either organization
       | one would be laughed out of the room for suggesting environmental
       | issues should take priority over national security.
       | 
       | But it's not just two countries, it's every single country making
       | these types of decisions for 100+ years... And if $country
       | doesn't build that weapons facility or export that labor,
       | $otherCountry will, therefore $country will be at a disadvantage.
       | Repeat ad infitium.
       | 
       | Those in power are far more concerned with maintaining and
       | leveraging that power than they are with "humanity's best
       | interest".
        
         | lastofthemojito wrote:
         | > At the executive level of either organization one would be
         | laughed out of the room for suggesting environmental issues
         | should take priority over national security
         | 
         | Supposedly some folks are starting to frame climate issues as
         | threats to national security. It may just be lip service so
         | far, but we're now seeing "Meet the Climate Crisis" listed as
         | one of the top 5 priorities for the US Department of Defense:
         | https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/331664...
        
           | ipnon wrote:
           | "Hell hath no wrath like a national security apparatus
           | threatened," I think that's how it goes. Once USG, or Wall
           | Street even, is threatened nothing is really off the table.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | I'm always extremely suspicious of "we care about climate
           | charge" arguments that always argue for exactly what the
           | group has always wanted to do.
        
         | account-5 wrote:
         | > Repeat ad infitium.
         | 
         | Unlikely since these entities all end when the environment is
         | fucked. I don't know the Latin for: approx next 100 years.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _t 's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest
         | stick. These entities act in their own best interest_
         | 
         | Everyone acts in their own interests. The _gilets jaunes_ were
         | a grassroots protest against a gas tax increase. You see
         | similar gas-station sticker-shock pressure exerted by voters in
         | the United States.
         | 
         | There _are_ coordination problems to climate change. But it 's
         | less a prisoner's dilemma than a time-horizon problem: the
         | fruits of a green transition won't yield for decades.
         | (Economies of scale help with this. Geopolitical decoupling
         | gets in the way of that--this is the only domain where I see
         | the prisoner's dilemma that you allude to.)
        
           | dopidop wrote:
           | Digression :
           | 
           | The Gillet jaune started this way. Very true. But also self
           | organise to be something vastly different pretty quickly.
           | Maybe 20 days into that months long movement ( it's not
           | officially over; like Korea war ... )
        
         | gmuslera wrote:
         | Another flavor of the Tragedy of the Commons. Everyone
         | optimized by their local, short term priorities.
        
         | apsec112 wrote:
         | The vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions isn't military,
         | it's for ordinary consumer uses like heating, cooling, driving,
         | and farming meat. No matter what the form of government, lots
         | of people will object very strongly if the solution to climate
         | change is not having central heating, cars, hot water, or beef
         | for dinner.
        
         | mc32 wrote:
         | Hmmm, I think if we had similar (but roving, pastoral, etc)
         | neolithic with population we do today (ok, doubtfully possible,
         | but whatever carrying capacity), we'd never the less have
         | resource fouling, resource depletion and we'd be sending soot
         | into the atmosphere.
        
         | yoyohello13 wrote:
         | I recently came across a game theory term called "Moloch" in
         | which individual incentives lead to negative outcomes for all
         | parties involved. Nobody individually wants the negative
         | outcome, but it's extremely difficult to break out of the
         | cycle.
        
         | littleweep wrote:
         | I guess until govts realize enviromental security is national
         | security...
        
       | SinParadise wrote:
       | Its OK magic of technology will swoop in and save us. Any time
       | now.
        
         | bvrlt wrote:
         | And Apple will be carbon neutral in 2030.
        
       | Acssux wrote:
       | How is something critical if it has been transgressed and we are
       | still alive? Or on the very first moment every single one is past
       | we all suddenly die?
        
         | elihu wrote:
         | The Titanic didn't sink the moment it hit the iceberg, it took
         | a little over two and a half hours. During a significant
         | portion of that time it wasn't all that obvious that anything
         | was seriously wrong. The ship was listing slightly to one side
         | and the engines were off.
         | 
         | The passengers weren't all affected equally either. A lot of
         | first-class passengers made it onto lifeboats, whereas third
         | class passengers mostly didn't.
         | 
         | (The analogy breaks down a little in that we don't have
         | lifeboats and the collapse of our ecosystems probably won't be
         | as absolute and catestrophic as a ship sinking. The Earth's
         | ability to sustain large numbers of humans may decline
         | significantly though, and a lot of things we take for granted
         | now may be gone.)
        
           | autoexec wrote:
           | We don't have life boats (yet) but I do wonder if some part
           | of the massive increase in wealth disparity we've seen is due
           | to uncertainty about the future, or if the reluctance to take
           | meaningful action to slow/reverse the impacts we've had on
           | the earth is because it's already clear that our time is
           | running out and there's nothing that can be done to stop it.
        
         | myshpa wrote:
         | https://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comic/st-matthew-island/
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity#Planetary_Bo...
        
         | Cerium wrote:
         | Breathing is critical to keep me alive, but I can hold my
         | breath for a minute, and if forced by external means to stop
         | breathing, will still be ok for a few minutes.
        
         | hotpotamus wrote:
         | It reminds me a bit of radiation poisoning - you can receive a
         | lethal dose in moments. After that, you can carry on for a
         | time; hours, maybe days feeling normal, but your death has
         | already been ordained and your biochemical systems will
         | collapse from the insult.
        
           | musha68k wrote:
           | _Hokuto Shinken_ self-application; all the neuralgic points,
           | and with determination and lots of force.
        
         | Iridescent_ wrote:
         | If you have a pond with 1000 fishes, and each year the
         | population of fish doubles, you can remove 501 fishes/year for
         | quite a while. You are clearly in an unsustainable situation,
         | yet it will take time for the population to completely
         | collapse. These limits are in the sense that we cannot stay
         | above forever, not in the we cannot go above ever sense.
        
           | isotropy wrote:
           | Well, only for 8 years.
           | 
           | 1000 998 994 986 970 938 874 746 490 ooops
        
             | ricardobeat wrote:
             | A very insightful misguided comment, shows how easy it can
             | be to disturb a system in equilibrium with very minor
             | changes (1 extra fish).
        
         | netsharc wrote:
         | Ha, good point, let's not focus on the main issue and instead
         | argue semantics shall we... /s
         | 
         | To ELI5 like you seem to prefer, the iceberg breaching the hull
         | of the Titanic seems like a critical transgression, but the
         | ship stayed afloat another hour or so...
        
           | scrozier wrote:
           | They are not arguing semantics, they are getting to the very
           | premise/context of the paper.
        
           | diogenes4 wrote:
           | If the main issue is not semantic, how would you characterize
           | it?
        
         | IKantRead wrote:
         | Give it some time. Good news is that "faster than expected"
         | seems to be a very common saying among people studying these
         | areas, so you might not have to wait as long as the geological
         | time might suggest!
         | 
         | Honestly, as someone who has been very concerned about climate
         | for a while now, I'm surprised how much visible disruption of
         | the climate system we've directly been able to observe. Earlier
         | in my life I thought that, though dire, this was certainly a
         | problem that would impact future generations but not so much
         | ours. It turns out I might have been quite wrong on that front.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | You have a funny definition of 'good news'.
        
         | ricardobeat wrote:
         | This is looking at changes over a scale of centuries, and the
         | potentially irreversible effects of what we are doing right
         | now.
         | 
         | > Had Earth system remained forced by 1988 conditions (350 ppm
         | and 85%/50%/85% of tropical/temperate/boreal forest cover
         | remaining), the simulations show that temperature over the
         | global land surface would not have increased by more than an
         | additional 0.6degC in the subsequent 800 years
         | 
         | > If climate and land system change can be halted at 450 ppm
         | and forest cover retained at 60%/30%/60% of
         | boreal/temperate/tropical natural cover, then the simulation
         | indicates a mean temperature rise over land of 1.4degC by 2100
         | (in addition to 0.7degC between preindustrial time and 1988)
         | and 1.9degC after 800 years as vegetation evolves in a warmer
         | climate
         | 
         | The latter is an optimistic projection assuming we will do more
         | to stop climate change, the paper goes further into the odds of
         | a >3C increase.
         | 
         | To put that in context, a 1.5degC increase in average
         | temperature is considered a doomsday scenario where wildfires
         | and storms ravage the earth, killing over half of the global
         | population.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _How is something critical if it has been transgressed_
         | 
         | I don't think the paper claims we've passed criticality.
         | Instead, it talks of boundaries and risk, the latter reflecting
         | that we don't know where the critical points are.
         | 
         | > _on the very first moment every single one is past we all
         | suddenly die?_
         | 
         | Biosphere collapse could happen suddenly and without warning.
         | That would throw the global south into political turmoil while
         | prompting a global and destabilizing refugee crisis.
        
         | paint wrote:
         | Echoing the kind of climate change scenario 5 year old kids
         | have seems kind of cruel the week thousands of people in Libya
         | died of events that are exasperated by the climate crisis.
         | People are already dying of climate related causes, like crop
         | failures and natural distasters.
        
           | swader999 wrote:
           | Man-made dams broke.
        
             | young_breezy wrote:
             | Right? The climate is fine as long as you don't depend on
             | man made objects
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | paint wrote:
             | What you are saying is technically not wrong, but
             | misleading, as it omits the fact the dams broke due to a
             | natural disaster, Storm Daniel, which previously also
             | "affected Greece, Bulgaria, and Turkey with extensive
             | flooding.".
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Daniel
        
               | swader999 wrote:
               | No kidding, but to say that climate change did this when
               | hurricanes have been on the decline the last thirty years
               | is misleading. This is weather and engineering failures.
               | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5
        
               | Eduard wrote:
               | > No kidding, but to say that climate change did this
               | when hurricanes have been on the decline the last thirty
               | years is misleading. This is weather and engineering
               | failures.
               | 
               | > https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5
               | 
               | This HN user categorically and obsessively has their own
               | opinion on climate change, and how it is influenced by
               | humans.
               | 
               | Their "evidence research" is taking the first Google
               | search result that they believe to support their position
               | in the discussion at hand - even if it doesn't make sense
               | (hurricanes in North America versus Mediterranean).
               | 
               | If they don't invest in such sloppy research, their
               | arguments hit rock-bottom Tiktok factoid niveau. one can
               | better just assume nonsense/randomizing/lying and ignore
               | this user for anything climate-related.
        
         | chx wrote:
         | I'd recommend watching Margin Call, a movie set during the 2008
         | financial collapse.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | If the engines on your plane fall off mid flight, everyone
         | doesn't die instantly. They die instantly after 30 thousand
         | feet of screaming terror.
         | 
         | This comment screams lack of education about complicated
         | systems. For example take overpopulation in things like grazing
         | mammals. The funny thing about being overpopulated is that it
         | is not instantly deadly. Once the mammals eat enough of their
         | food source that their food source cannot reproduce reliably
         | the game is over. But they tend to have reserves of fat and
         | muscle that last for some period of time. The weakest die
         | first. Then the population reduces. But the population doesn't
         | go back to what was previously considered at the over
         | population limit. No, populations massively collapse because
         | there is nothing to eat at all. 9 out of 10 members of the
         | population can die. And if it's something like an island,
         | extinction is on the menu.
        
         | lkbm wrote:
         | The article says:
         | 
         | > Boundary positions do not demarcate or predict singular
         | threshold shifts in Earth system state. They are placed at a
         | level where the available evidence suggests that further
         | perturbation of the individual process could potentially lead
         | to systemic planetary change by altering and fundamentally
         | reshaping the dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of
         | geosphere-biosphere interactions and their feedbacks
         | 
         | Probably would need to read more to get a clear understanding
         | of exactly what they mean and how they're defined, but it
         | sounds like we're to an unstable place. Perhaps somewhat
         | analogous to skating on thin ice: you may not have haven't
         | broken through yet, but you're in a spot where a break could
         | happen at any moment and from any movement.
        
           | haltist wrote:
           | California's climate patterns are already changing but the
           | state has managed to deal with the problems and will probably
           | continue to do so. Texas on the other hand is starting to see
           | problems with their electricity grid during summers and it's
           | going to keep getting worse as temperatures continue to rise.
        
             | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
             | My man, this comment is so wildly antiscience. I don't know
             | where to begin.
             | 
             | I'm not sure if it would be with forest management, or the
             | complexity and reasons that cut Texas has its own grid,
             | separated from everyone else. I'm not sure I would say
             | either directly applicable to this topic.
        
               | autoexec wrote:
               | Texas throwing a tantrum and refusing to have their power
               | grid under federal regulation will become increasingly
               | applicable to the topic since the changes we're causing
               | to our planet and its climate will put even more strain
               | on their weak and inflexible power grid. People in texas
               | are already dying from the heat in the summer and
               | freezing to death in the winter and it's only going to
               | get worse.
        
             | autoexec wrote:
             | California's "dealing with the problems" seems like a lot
             | of shortsighted non-sustainable policy. Parts of CA are
             | burning right now. At this point they've been bragging
             | about _maybe_ not having to go back to rolling blackouts.
             | Reliably providing even the most basic services like water
             | and power is such an astonishingly low bar that only in the
             | poorest developing nations should that even be in question
             | yet here we are. Long term, I don 't see Texas or
             | California holding up very well to climate change.
        
               | haltist wrote:
               | What states do you think will manage to deal with climate
               | change if not California?
        
               | autoexec wrote:
               | I know there have been models to predict which areas of
               | the country are expected to be most/least impacted by
               | climate change but I'm not qualified to judge them. I
               | suspect that increasing heat and desertification will
               | leave much of the southern and western US in very bad
               | shape. Anywhere prone to flooding now will only have it
               | worse. The coastal areas will also deal with flooding and
               | storms in increasing frequency/severity.
               | 
               | Maybe some of the northern flyover states would be best?
               | Higher land around the great lakes for example? If I were
               | looking to buy up some land today I'd even consider
               | Canada, but only after the fires have died down. The only
               | nice thing about wildfires burning 40 million acres of
               | forest to the ground is that it'll be a while before
               | there's enough fuel for it to happen again.
        
               | haltist wrote:
               | So it sounds like you don't think most of the US will
               | adapt.
        
             | hnburnsy wrote:
             | One is losing residents and one is gaining. Could that
             | partially explain what you descibed?
        
               | haltist wrote:
               | Seems like that should be even more reason for Texas to
               | upgrade their energy infrastructure like California.
        
       | formvoltron wrote:
       | pretty sure we have enough solar and batteries to power the
       | world. Sure ok we could use nuclear in some places too.
       | aerosols... that's from burning fossil fuels, no? fake meat will
       | go a long way to reclaiming farmland.
       | 
       | micro / nano plastics everywhere sucks. going to have to think
       | hard about how to fix that one.
       | 
       | can we take cell samples of all the species just in case we need
       | to conjure them up again? (or is at least one required to "boot")
        
         | dopidop wrote:
         | It's satire right ?
        
       | dr_dshiv wrote:
       | I don't know why this triggers such skepticism in me.
       | Particularly the section on novel entities. But it feels funny,
       | somehow, and I can't put my finger on it.
        
         | ipnon wrote:
         | I think the thought, like death, is simply so horrible it
         | defies full consideration. This is why climate activists can
         | seem fanatical, because it has a religious quality. Either you
         | believe "it" will happen in our lifetime, very soon, or it will
         | not happen at all, and it's this horrifying, apocalyptic nature
         | of the problem that causes this schism. If some of these
         | climate scientists are right in their claims it is the most
         | important thing for these activists to do. I'm sure we can all
         | draw parallels here.
        
           | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
           | There's a lot of religion going on right now. Whatever that
           | is in humans that encourages that, going back to tribal
           | behavior, or survival or whatever, it hasn't gone away just
           | because formalized religions are weak right now.
        
         | commandlinefan wrote:
         | > why this triggers such skepticism
         | 
         | I know it does for me - because the people who claim to believe
         | in it the most don't actually live their lives as if they
         | actually believed it. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy to do
         | whatever I could reasonably do to create cooler summers and
         | less smog, but I've never heard any actual concrete proposal
         | beyond "vote democrat".
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | In general because the tragedy of the commons is solved by
           | one group pointing a gun at everyone else. Nobody wants that,
           | but at the end of the day that's what we're going to get if
           | we like it or not.
           | 
           | The longer we wait, the more people are going to get shot by
           | that gun.
        
       | readthenotes1 wrote:
       | What a fantastic graphic and title! I do not believe I need to
       | read the article to understand the point of it. Rarely have I
       | seen such good visualization.
        
         | musha68k wrote:
         | It's very telling yes:
         | 
         | https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458#F1
        
       | toss1 wrote:
       | Note that the areas of the three largest deviations are, in
       | order: Biosphere Integrity, Novel Entities (synthetic chemical &
       | processes), and Biogeochemical Flows.
       | 
       | The entire ecosystem on which we depend for sustenance is an
       | extremely complex web of interlocking dependencies, from plankton
       | to pollinators, to soil microbiota, to temperature & hydration,
       | and so on, endlessly.
       | 
       | This is the food web. If it collapses, we as a species are beyond
       | fooked. Because it is so complex (and even something relatively
       | simple such as CO2-driven greenhouse effect climate change is too
       | complex for the lower half of the population to understand), it
       | is barely even discussed.
       | 
       | But make no mistake, the food web is under massive assault from
       | all kinds of human activities (and even the artificial
       | agriculture web is coming up against the hard limit of a
       | phosphorus crisis). This is likely to be a sooner and more
       | catastrophic failure than the climate crisis. The Fine Article
       | nicely clarifies some of the threat.
        
         | myshpa wrote:
         | > This is the food web
         | 
         | One major contributor to the overshoot is our current
         | agricultural practices, with animal agriculture being a primary
         | offender.
         | 
         | It's responsible for a significant amount of greenhouse gases,
         | it's a leading driver of biodiversity loss and deforestation,
         | and it contributes to soil degradation and water pollution.
         | 
         | https://ourworldindata.org/land-use
         | 
         | https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2013/10/World-Map-by-Land...
         | 
         | BIODIVERSITY LOSS
         | 
         | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4
         | 
         | Humans are driving one million species to extinction - UN
         | backed report finds that agriculture is one of the biggest
         | threats to Earth's ecosystems
         | 
         | https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-glob...
         | 
         | Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity
         | loss
         | 
         | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26231772/
         | 
         | Biodiversity conservation: The key is reducing meat consumption
         | 
         | DEFORESTATION
         | 
         | https://ourworldindata.org/drivers-of-deforestation
         | 
         | Drivers of Deforestation - combined, beef and oilseeds for
         | animal feed account for nearly 60% of deforestation
         | 
         | https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/whats-driving-deforestation
         | 
         | Just four commodities -- beef, soy, palm oil, and wood products
         | --drive the majority of tropical deforestation.
         | 
         | Beef - 2.71 million hectares / year
         | 
         | Soy - 480,000 ha / year (77% for animal feed)
         | 
         | Palm Oil - 270,000 ha / year
         | 
         | Wood - 380,000 ha / year (but probably more)
         | 
         | GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
         | 
         | CO2 - 16.5+% animal agriculture (https://www.researchgate.net/p
         | ublication/352100490_Emissions...)
         | 
         | Methane - animal agriculture leading driver,
         | https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector#methane-ch4-e...
         | 
         | N20 - animal agriculture leads again,
         | https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector#nitrous-oxide...
         | 
         | SOLUTIONS
         | 
         | We can significantly reduce our footprint by adopting plant-
         | based diets, reforesting the pastures (more than 50% of which
         | were originally forests), and allowing biodiversity to recover.
         | 
         | https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets
         | 
         | If the world adopted a plant-based diet we would reduce global
         | agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares
         | 
         | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00603-4
         | 
         | The carbon opportunity cost of animal-sourced food production
         | on land - shifts in global food production to plant-based diets
         | by 2050 could lead to sequestration of 332-547 GtCO2,
         | equivalent to 99-163% of the CO2 emissions budget consistent
         | with a 66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degC
         | 
         | https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/917471
         | 
         | Feeding 10 billion people by 2050 within planetary limits may
         | be achievable
        
           | analognoise wrote:
           | Humanity would rather go to war to thin our numbers than give
           | up eating meat.
           | 
           | The only viable method is lab grown meat that tastes exactly
           | the same, same texture, and is cheaper. That's it. People
           | have real stuff in their lives - they're not worried about
           | planetary survival in 100 years, they're worried about next
           | months rent, etc.
        
             | toss1 wrote:
             | Perhaps note that only 12% of Americans eat 50% of the
             | beef. That group is men between 50-66 years old.
             | 
             | The remaining half is spread among the other 88%. Convince
             | that 12%, or let them age out, and half the problem goes
             | away.
             | 
             | [0] https://phys.org/news/2023-08-mere-americans-nation-
             | beef-sig...
        
               | myshpa wrote:
               | The link got cut off.
               | 
               | https://phys.org/news/2023-08-mere-americans-nation-beef-
               | sig...
        
             | mistrial9 wrote:
             | Hindus and Buddhists have developed vegetarian diets
             | alongside architectural and intellectual accomplishments,
             | for more than a thousand years.
        
             | myshpa wrote:
             | > Humanity would rather go to war to thin our numbers than
             | give up eating meat
             | 
             | We're using up resources at a pace that outstrips Earth's
             | ability to replenish them. For instance, we're already
             | consuming 1.7 times the Earth's available resources.
             | 
             | https://www.overshootday.org/
             | 
             | If everyone were to adopt a diet similar to the American
             | diet, we would require more than five Earths to sustain it.
             | 
             | https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/sustainabilit
             | y...
             | 
             | > The only viable method is lab grown meat
             | 
             | Achieving the required scale and price point may take
             | decades, potentially leading to the collapse of
             | biodiversity long before that occurs.
             | 
             | > that tastes exactly the same, same texture, and is
             | cheaper
             | 
             | Is our love for the taste really worth destroying the
             | planet?
             | 
             | What will we say to our grandchildren? "Sorry, I couldn't
             | give up those burgers. Now, go play in a desert."
             | 
             | https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/uk-
             | news/mea...
             | 
             |  _Veggie sausages and burgers up to ten times better for
             | environment than meat, study finds_
             | 
             | > they're worried about next months rent
             | 
             | Vegan diets are typically the most economical choice, even
             | in first-world countries. The affordability of animal
             | products is primarily a result of significant subsidies,
             | without factoring in the negative externalities.
             | 
             | https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-11-11-sustainable-eating-
             | chea...
             | 
             |  _Sustainable eating is cheaper and healthier - Oxford
             | study_
        
             | jgraham wrote:
             | > The only viable method is lab grown meat
             | 
             | I suspect it's true that the only way to substantially cut
             | animal-based protein consumption at scale is some
             | technological alternative that offers a comparable culinary
             | experience but with a lower cost (and lower impact).
             | Although as another poster notes, it's also true that --
             | like many resource consumption issues -- the distribution
             | isn't flat, but shows the majority of consumption coming
             | from a relatively small fraction of the population.
             | 
             | However, what I wanted to point out is that "lab grown
             | meat" is not the only possibility in this general area.
             | Precision fermentation of proteins (e.g.
             | https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-fermentation/) is
             | another approach that seems to have potential. Although I
             | note that I don't have a specific horse in this race, and
             | would be delighted to see anything that can reduce the
             | overall environmental impact of food production at a global
             | scale take off.
        
           | toss1 wrote:
           | >>Our agriculture and food production are major contributors
           | to the damage
           | 
           | Yes - deadly serious.
           | 
           | I had to travel to the US midwest recently, after not having
           | been there for a long time. As I drove out of the city the
           | first impression of the farmlands was pleasant. But after an
           | hour of highway-speed driving past nothing but bare fields
           | (out of growing season) with scant rows of trees, we became a
           | bit horrified -- there was absolutely zero habitat for
           | anything but the artificial plantings, when they were in
           | season. And they would be coated with pesticides to ensure
           | that there were no insects, or anything that ate them, or
           | that ate the things that ate the insects, etc.. And indeed,
           | returning to the airport in daytime, there was remarkably
           | little wildlife.
           | 
           | It was a seriously disturbing experience, which I did not
           | expect.
           | 
           | >>Feeding 10 billion people by 2050 within planetary limits
           | may be achievable
           | 
           | Yikes. The damage being done by 7 billion right now, adding
           | 20-30% more is kind of unthinkable, even setting aside the
           | agricultural damage. And you're absolutely right that we need
           | to adopt a plant-based diet.
           | 
           | The conversion away from meat does seem much more doable,
           | since only 12% of Americans eat 50% of the beef. Moreover,
           | that's men between 50-66 years old, so if younger generations
           | don't acquire that habit, we'll get a 50% reduction just by
           | that sub-population aging out.
           | 
           | [0] https://phys.org/news/2023-08-mere-americans-nation-beef-
           | sig...
        
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