[HN Gopher] SpaceX no longer taking losses to produce Starlink s...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       SpaceX no longer taking losses to produce Starlink satellite
       antennas
        
       Author : mfiguiere
       Score  : 155 points
       Date   : 2023-09-13 16:48 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
        
       | phkahler wrote:
       | Does Starlink offer a plan for multi-tenant buildings? I'm
       | thinking condo with 30 units. It seems like it should be more
       | efficient to run one high bandwidth connection than multiple
       | regular customers. Could we share cost among all tenants and get
       | a really good deal?
        
         | Stevvo wrote:
         | OneWeb might be more suitable for this. At least their biz
         | model is based around doing things it, while Starlink is
         | direct-to-consumer.
        
         | xoa wrote:
         | > _Does Starlink offer a plan for multi-tenant buildings? I 'm
         | thinking condo with 30 units. It seems like it should be more
         | efficient to run one high bandwidth connection than multiple
         | regular customers. Could we share cost among all tenants and
         | get a really good deal?_
         | 
         | I'm not quite sure what you're envisioning here? Starlink
         | offers a business class service with a more powerful terminal,
         | higher QoS, etc. One just gets that and then have it serve as
         | the uplink to a LAN which you can subdivide in all the normal
         | ways however one wants, that's what I've done with Starlink for
         | multiple clients now including one that then feeds to a dozen
         | or so different units over a half mile or so. There isn't any
         | need to SpaceX to be involved in what happens after their
         | terminal, it's no different than a fiber connection WISP or
         | ADSL or cable. Everyone can agree to divide up paying for
         | service and kit as they wish. Same as if it was going to a
         | business that has 2 employees or 20 or 200 or 2000, SpaceX only
         | cares (and should only need to care) about the bottom line of
         | the monthly bill getting paid and any acceptable use/data TOS
         | respected. They don't need any visibility into the network
         | beyond their terminal. And Starlink can be part of a failover
         | or more complex load balanced WAN too.
        
           | pavon wrote:
           | Starlink's ToS prohibit reselling of service, and dividing
           | cost of service among several tenants could be considered to
           | violate that. Most ISPs would require a specific agreement
           | for those sort of things.
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://www.starlink.com/legal/documents/DOC-1020-91087-64,
           | Sections 2.1 & 10
        
             | xoa wrote:
             | > _and dividing cost of service among several tenants could
             | be considered to violate that_
             | 
             | Show me the caselaw where multiple people splitting a bill
             | would be "reselling", not your head canon make believe if
             | you're going to make such an assertion. ISPs grab enough
             | power already without us needing to invent new things they
             | can do. Reselling as far as I understand means taking a
             | good or service and then selling it again for a profit. I'd
             | really like to see any examples of people at one address
             | being sued for privately deciding to share a bill. Also
             | FWIW I don't think it should be legal for ISPs to prohibit
             | reselling anyway, but I don't dispute they probably can in
             | theory. Splitting a bill though?
             | 
             | > _Most ISPs would require a specific agreement for those
             | sort of things._
             | 
             | I think this sounds like absolute bullshit.
        
               | inemesitaffia wrote:
               | He's right. Usually you need an agreement to resell.
               | 
               | Very few companies monitor these things. But anti resale,
               | anti server provisions are common
        
         | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
         | probably not. Any 30 unit building is probably in too urban an
         | area for Starlink to be competitive with fiber.
        
           | mcpackieh wrote:
           | Check out Whittier, Alaska. A port town of 272 people, almost
           | all of whom live in a single building.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whittier,_Alaska#/media/File:W.
           | ..
           | 
           | (Another oddity; the only way to drive into that down is
           | through a 2.5 mile tunnel with a single lane shared by trains
           | and cars. You drive on the train tracks.)
        
             | Symbiote wrote:
             | They already have far Internet.
             | 
             | https://uui-alaska.com/whittier-internet-cable-modem-
             | cable-t...
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | moyix wrote:
           | You'd be surprised. In dense cities like NYC/Brooklyn fiber
           | availability varies from block to block, I assume because
           | adding new infra is so expensive. We recently moved about
           | five blocks away and lost access to fiber :(
        
           | ultrarunner wrote:
           | Think ski resorts
        
           | pnpnp wrote:
           | That's not necessarily true!
           | 
           | I can think of 3 nearby Rocky Mountain resort towns without
           | great cellular or terrestrial internet.
        
             | ravi-delia wrote:
             | There's gotta be a point where the cost of running enough
             | fiber drops below a sufficient amount of starlink capacity
             | though. Hard to say where that number is though.
        
             | HaZeust wrote:
             | In fact, I believe Ameristar (or another casino) in
             | Blackhawk CO was thinking about using Starlink
        
       | giantg2 wrote:
       | I wonder if the antenna is expensive or if it's the other
       | electronics in the terminal? I assume it uses a phased array. I
       | also assume most phased arrays are pretty cheap.
        
         | teleforce wrote:
         | The antenna or the array antenna should be pretty cheap because
         | they're technically passive devices. The expensive parts,
         | however, are active circuitry namely the down conversion
         | circuitry and signal processing for beam steering. The trick is
         | to reliably down convert the signal to low frequency baseband
         | by maintaining its amplitude and phase in which information is
         | encoded since frequency is ephemeral (can be changed and
         | manipulated without losing the information). According to
         | ChatGPT-4, the user bands for Starlink satellites are mainly
         | using Ku-band for downlink between 10.7 to 12.7 GHz (satellite
         | to user) and 14 to 14.5 GHz for uplink (user to satellite).
         | 
         | They are 3 ways of doing the frequency conversions namely
         | superheterodyne (Single-IF), Direct conversion (Zero-IF) and
         | the latest Direct RF sampling. The complexity is decreasing,
         | hence the price is decreasing as we go from former to latter.
         | Due to the relatively high frequency of Ku-band, Starlink
         | antenna systems probably also utilize multiple down conversions
         | or multi superheterodyne which make the price to be rather
         | expensive due to the increased complexity of the circuitry and
         | signal processing.
         | 
         | Now due to the rapid improvement in RF SoC/chip design by
         | company like ADI and TI, we now have RF transceiver chip that
         | can perform Direct RF sampling utilizing high speed ADC/DAC
         | operating in Ku-band. Thus we can expect the price to be going
         | down even further. I suspect the decreased in manufacturing for
         | the antenna price is not so much due to the their better
         | manufacturing iterations, increase yield, etc but mainly due to
         | the recent availability of this high speed Direct RF sampling
         | transceivers but I can be wrong.
        
         | bottlepalm wrote:
         | Inside a terminal -
         | https://x.com/olegkutkov/status/1526986473114935298
        
         | inemesitaffia wrote:
         | Phased arrays on the market start at $16k
         | 
         | $25k is probably what you'll spend
        
       | NelsonMinar wrote:
       | I'm surprised they haven't added an ethernet port back to their
       | router.
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | Well, it's a few more cents on the bill of materials and some
         | PCB real estate, and constrains the enclosure form factor.
         | 
         | Ethernet ports have a transformer (or some other kind of
         | electrical isolation) inside as well, from memory. Making it an
         | add-on means you can spend more on higher quality electrical
         | protection so it actually keeps the rest of the terminal safe,
         | for those who need wires. And you can replace the add-on when
         | mechanical overstress (aka tripping over the ethernet cable) is
         | applied.
        
         | genewitch wrote:
         | their router can be submitted to the elements, outdoors. good
         | luck doing that with an rj-45 on the device. Now, CPE wireless
         | stuff (like at&t fixed wireless) has ethernet ports, but you
         | have to have bulk cat6 wire, the rj-45 connectors, and a
         | crimper to "service" it. I don't know about you, i'm the only
         | person i know that has all of those things in my area. the
         | dongle to add an ethernet port to the starlink router, on the
         | other hand, just requires removing one gasket-laden plug for
         | another.
         | 
         | I personally use it as strain relief. It's cheaper to replace
         | that dongle than it is to replace the antenna wire, especially
         | the 100' one.
        
           | xoa wrote:
           | > _their router can be submitted to the elements, outdoors.
           | good luck doing that with an rj-45 on the device_
           | 
           | Um, that's very, very easy to do actually. And indeed the
           | original v1 Starlink cleanly separated the terminal and the
           | router. There was zero need to ever use the included one, you
           | could just treat the terminal as a pure WAN link and that's
           | it. Works extremely well. The v2 was a significant and
           | regrettable downgrade in that respect. There were some
           | reasonable arguments for going away from ethernet since they
           | weren't within the official spec which unfortunately maxes
           | out too low for power [0]. But I wish that at least with the
           | business one they'd simply separated out power and data at
           | least as an option while keeping the terminal self contained.
           | 
           | > _Now, CPE wireless stuff (like at &t fixed wireless) has
           | ethernet ports, but you have to have bulk cat6 wire, the
           | rj-45 connectors, and a crimper to "service" it._
           | 
           | Or, you know, just get a preterminated shielded patch cable?
           | Or for stuff SFP use fiber, again preterminated is fine.
           | There is no downside to having this be easy for those who
           | need it and the same for those who don't.
           | 
           | ----
           | 
           | 0: Though I'll edit to add that I've had people tell me
           | they've powered them just fine with standard 100W PoE++
           | injectors. It may be that either SpaceX is being generous
           | with their claimed power needs, or the full power is only
           | ever used for serious snow/ice melting with the heaters and
           | is a worse case scenario that much of the planet will never
           | need to think about. Of course that'd just remove even more
           | justification for going proprietary.
        
             | genewitch wrote:
             | >Or, you know, just get a preterminated shielded patch
             | cable?
             | 
             | the rj-45 plastic part won't fit in the tiny hole for the
             | cable. I'm unsure if you understood what i was talking
             | about. outdoor ethernet requires a crimper, otherwise you
             | can't guarantee water-resistance.
             | 
             | I don't know anything about the "old" starlink stuff, i
             | have the rectangular dish. the power and data are separate
             | - unless you mean the cable going to the dish - in which
             | case, the dongle splits out the ethernet from _that_ cable.
             | 
             | I haven't tried to "dumb WAN" the starlink because it's
             | outside the scope of my use. I don't even see the point of
             | getting rid of the NAT at that spot, because it's still NAT
             | upstream, and you're gunna need NAT on your network anyway,
             | probably. I had this issue with 4g/LTE CPE, too. Once
             | something goes CGNAT, there's no reason to use your own
             | equipment, as it's getting a private address anyhow, and
             | now you're approaching quadruple NAT territory.
        
               | xoa wrote:
               | > _I 'm unsure if you understood what i was talking
               | about. outdoor ethernet requires a crimper, otherwise you
               | can't guarantee water-resistance._
               | 
               | No, it does not. I'm fairly sure you do not deal with
               | outdoor networking of any kind, or you'd be more familiar
               | with the myriad of solutions to this. The most basic of
               | which are feeding a terminated cable through a tight
               | rubber gasket of some kind, which then fits around the
               | 8P8C port in some way, and is installed facing up. That
               | is typically plenty for outdoor survivability short of
               | full submersion, including driving rain storms, complete
               | coverage in snow etc. Sometimes dielectric grease or the
               | like may be added if it's going to be buried underground
               | too. Like, this is a solved problem, for ages. Cheap PtP
               | devices, outdoor WAPs, outdoor switches, ethernet
               | extenders etc all handle this just fine. All of them use
               | preterminated cables (of course you can make your own).
               | 
               | > _the power and data are separate - unless you mean the
               | cable going to the dish_
               | 
               | Of course I meant the cable going to the terminal (dish).
               | I want that in at least a pro/business terminal to have
               | an option to use SFP directly so I can have the data go
               | direct to fiber and power be separate, which as well as
               | allowing far more range to the router has the added
               | advantage of eliminating any surge or induced current
               | considerations.
               | 
               | > _I haven 't tried to "dumb WAN" the starlink because
               | it's outside the scope of my use. I don't even see the
               | point of getting rid of the NAT at that spot, because
               | it's still NAT upstream, and you're gunna need NAT on
               | your network anyway, probably. I had this issue with
               | 4g/LTE CPE, too. Once something goes CGNAT, there's no
               | reason to use your own equipment, as it's getting a
               | private address anyhow, and now you're approaching
               | quadruple NAT territory._
               | 
               | I'd politely suggest you perhaps not be quite so
               | confident about things you don't really use or
               | understand.
        
               | genewitch wrote:
               | I'll just leave this here:
               | https://i.imgur.com/Clz9pSu.png
               | 
               | Since you ignored pretty much everything i said for
               | whatever reason, i'll just say it again: it may be "just
               | fine" in places that are don't have extreme humidity and
               | temperature deltas between night and day. All i can tell
               | you is i've installed PtP and PtMP sector antennas and
               | "dishes", and if the power goes out for 2 nights, you're
               | at least in for replacing some parts.
               | 
               | It isn't _" the rain"_ that I/we worry about. Oddly, all
               | the starlink stuff is heavily gasketed connectors. i
               | wonder why they don't just use USB-C like some cameras,
               | they could even face the connectors downward!
               | 
               | As far as my last point - i said i don't see the _point_
               | since starlink is CGNAT. It 's like putting a fiber cable
               | to a cellphone for tethering. you get _no_ benefit. In
               | the starlink app you can turn off DHCP and put your own
               | junk behind it if you want - that is, if you want triple
               | or quadruple NAT.
        
         | bitbckt wrote:
         | The extra Ethernet dongle is a silly extra expense in my view -
         | I don't want their WiFi, I use the base station as a bridge
         | between physical interfaces the same as a cable modem.
         | 
         | I'm looking forward to the return of the port, too.
        
         | TaylorAlexander wrote:
         | I was very surprised when our starlink showed up and I had to
         | buy an Ethernet adapter! Extremely weird that they don't just
         | have the port on the router.
        
           | genewitch wrote:
           | Is it really that surprising? there's two hardware pieces,
           | both are rated for outdoor (permanent) use. I don't see a way
           | to guarantee that sort of thing with a _user serviceable_
           | ethernet port except the way they did it.
           | 
           | I actually debated buying the longer dish wire vs leaving the
           | thing outside, and made the decision to buy the longer cable
           | and the ethernet port adapter, because i live in an area
           | where sustained power outages longer than 24 hours _will_
           | allow moisture ingress into any device left outside, and the
           | higher the IP rating, the more likely this is to damage said
           | device.
        
             | zajio1am wrote:
             | User serviceable ethernet port on outdoor antennas is
             | standard on wifi devices. Just put it behind movable cover
             | and direct it down, partially recessed in plastic case (so
             | it is protected from flowing water, rain and snow). See
             | e.g. https://www.wifihw.cz/img.asp?attid=4754
        
               | genewitch wrote:
               | that sort of thing works _great_ if you can guarantee
               | power to the device, 24 /7. At least where i am. the
               | moisture in the air at night will be pulled into the
               | device, through whatever seals exist, if the device is
               | unpowered. Then, during the day when the pressure inside
               | the device increases (due to the seals), the extra air is
               | released, but the condensation remains.
               | 
               | here, it takes literally 2 nights without power to kill
               | stuff like Wyze cameras, Solar powered spotlights, etc.
               | and those don't have a half inch rectangular hole
               | allowing ingress.
               | 
               | I'm not saying that stuff like what you're talking about
               | doesn't exist. I've installed relays that had "downward
               | facing rj-45 behind a panel", on top of buildings... but
               | the building had generator backup that we were
               | shareholders in, as well as our own UPS systems that kept
               | the POE enabled in the event the generator failed, but
               | shut off all "data" to the radios, leaving them using
               | idle power. If there were no generator, we'd have used a
               | different type of radio on the roofs.
        
             | TaylorAlexander wrote:
             | Well the entire rest of my system is a Unifi mesh Wi-Fi
             | system with two Ethernet ports on every outdoor rated
             | device I am using so yes I found it very surprising.
        
         | drak0n1c wrote:
         | The current Wifi 5 one has an ethernet adapter they sell
         | separately: https://www.starlink.com/specifications
         | 
         | The upcoming Wifi 6 router will likely have ethernet ports
         | built-in given the FCC spec: https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-
         | preps-wi-fi-6-starlink-rou...
        
         | KirillPanov wrote:
         | The $2500 "high performance" (square, not rectangle) dish is a
         | direct ethernet connection.
         | 
         | They still use a proprietary connector (mainly for
         | weatherproofing and durability reasons) and supply the power on
         | different pairs than standard PoE (probably so people don't try
         | to use their own PoE injector). But it's:                  dish
         | -> PoE injector -> rj45 ethernet
         | 
         | No wifi anywhere. Also no router, unless you count the dish
         | itself. Each "->" is a cable.
         | 
         | The dish->injector cable has proprietary connectors on both
         | ends; the injector->rj45 cable has a proprietary connector on
         | one end and an ordinary rj45 plug on the other end. Apparently
         | this is done because the proprietary connectors are
         | weatherproof and rj45 isn't, and people expect to be able to
         | put the PoE injector outdoors.
         | 
         | The proprietary connectors on the high performance dish are
         | _slightly_ different from the ones on the cheap rectangular
         | dish, so you can 't just use the proprietary->rj45 cable from a
         | high performance dish with the cheap dish.
         | 
         | Honestly I with Starlink would've just coughed up the few extra
         | bucks it costs to use standard rj45 with a weatherproof shroud.
        
       | throwawaaarrgh wrote:
       | I want to like Starlink, but there is no way the product can both
       | continue to grow and also service customers at advertised speeds.
       | It will literally only get slower over time. And it's already
       | spotty.
        
         | Retric wrote:
         | Ultimately bandwidth per customer is just a revenue vs cost of
         | each satellite question. They or a competitor can scale the
         | number of LEO satellites and their mass basically indefinitely.
         | 
         | Also inline traditional communication satellites these things
         | have a short lifespan which means the network can see
         | significant improvements over time as technology improves.
        
           | throwawaaarrgh wrote:
           | From what I heard there is literally a cap on the number of
           | signals that can be serviced per cell, extra satellites will
           | not expand potential signals per cell, so you literally run
           | out of how many people can be connected in a given area.
           | Bandwidth is already limited and becomes moreso as the cell
           | gets crowded.
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | Cell sizes can be shrunk it's really dependent of the
             | technology involved. Starlink is currently tied to a
             | specific technology stack but different providers can be
             | using different frequencies etc.
             | 
             | If you're looking for the ultimate limit you need to
             | consider stuff like this 100Gbps optical link.
             | https://news.mit.edu/2022/communications-system-achieves-
             | fas.... That's not directly viable for home internet users,
             | but an airline or cruse ship might be interested in such
             | technologies.
        
       | teleforce wrote:
       | >SpaceX sells antennas with its service in a range from $2,500 to
       | $150,000 each.
       | 
       | What, a freaking antenna that cost about the same as Ferrari
       | Enzo? Are we missing something here?
       | 
       | Just wondering can a third party make and sell compatible
       | Starlink antenna? Is it permissible?
       | 
       | Anyway these HN threads have so many useful information, it feels
       | like in a conference room with various Starlink stakeholders.
        
         | jakeinspace wrote:
         | It's for aircraft
        
         | inemesitaffia wrote:
         | You can get one for more money from DUJUD or Ball Aerospace.
         | 
         | $150,000 is probably the cheapest in it's category
        
           | teleforce wrote:
           | Thanks for the info.
           | 
           | In that case, it is possible and feasible to create a third
           | party business making and selling cheaper antenna systems for
           | the Starlink customers.
           | 
           | As I've mentioned in my other comments, I suspect the
           | decreased in manufacturing for the antenna price is not so
           | much due to the SpaceX better manufacturing iterations,
           | increase yield, etc but mainly due to the recent availability
           | of the high speed Direct RF sampling transceivers that now
           | encroaching Ku-band territory.
        
             | inemesitaffia wrote:
             | Amazon claim they'll be able to hit $400. In Ka band
             | 
             | SpaceX spent $2.4 billion on dish R&D and production of 1
             | million antennas upfront with ST Micro. That kind of
             | commitment goes a long way.
             | 
             | It's probably not. SpaceX doesn't have a separate modem.
             | It's in the dish. These two companies got in via the
             | military. OneWeb is in Ku band like starlink, they may be
             | open to talk
        
       | wongarsu wrote:
       | Good for them. Bringing production costs from $3000 per terminal
       | in 2020(?) to $1300 in early 2021 to less than $600 now is quite
       | the achievement, and not subsidizing terminals will make rapid
       | expansion a lot cheaper.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | bklyn11201 wrote:
         | Honest question: rapid expansion to where exactly? Are you
         | thinking poorer, rural countries? E.g., with cheaper terminals
         | Starlink will more aggressively sell to rural Brazil, Mexico,
         | India, etc? If they can sell the terminal at cost, how low can
         | they price the monthly service for these poorer countries to
         | fill up unused capacity?
        
           | fallingknife wrote:
           | If they get 10 million subscribers at $120 per month, that's
           | $14.4 billion per year which is way more than the cost of the
           | network. And they can easily get 10 million in just the US
           | and Canada. So they can price new subscribers in poorer
           | countries at whatever price they need because the marginal
           | cost to add to the network is near zero.
        
             | soperj wrote:
             | That math doesn't check out. 10,000,000 * $120 = $1.2
             | billion per year.
        
               | enigmurl wrote:
               | $1.2 billion per month would be $14.4 billion per year
        
           | lkbm wrote:
           | Poorer, rural countries like 20% of the US. In rural NC, my
           | brother was paying over $100/mo for 2mbps down cable Internet
           | as 2021.
           | 
           | Starlink's customer acquisition cost has dropped $600 (or
           | whatever they were losing on each antenna), so they can
           | afford to advertise _way_ more than before. If they can pick
           | up a decent portion of the 60,000,000 rural Americans, that
           | 's a huge revenue stream (and huge market power, for whatever
           | that's worth).
        
             | jhallenworld wrote:
             | This is an idiotic USA problem.
             | 
             | For example, China claims:
             | 
             | http://en.people.cn/n3/2022/0106/c90000-9941481.html
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | My dad's (now brother's) house a few minutes outside a
             | decently-sized town by Downeast Maine standards had a
             | barely 1Mbps down "broadband" link and it was the last
             | house on the road that could even get that. With Starlink,
             | it's actually viable to work from there in addition to
             | streaming video etc. Of course, he wouldn't pay literally
             | any amount but he'd probably pay a lot; I would.
        
               | lkbm wrote:
               | Yeah, I suspect they could have gotten my brother to pay
               | the old full cost plus extra. Still, many people in rural
               | areas aren't willing/able to drop $1k on Internet setup,
               | so keeping costs down is worth more than gouging a few
               | remote software engineers.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Certainly. I'm sure there's a correlation between poor
               | wired broadband and lower income even if it's not
               | perfect. But Starlink is a game changer for a lot of
               | people who otherwise can't get decent wired Internet--
               | and, especially if you can't get wired broadband, the
               | options are mostly pretty bad. Probably changing some
               | with 5G but still not ideal for many people.
        
           | slashdev wrote:
           | For my parents it's replaced their cable internet which was
           | slower and less reliable. I wish I could get it where I live
           | in a city apartment. The internet is usually fast, but not
           | reliable.
           | 
           | The only way to have satellite in an tall apartment building
           | is to put it on the roof, which is complicated.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | I'm always kind of puzzled by this question. There are like
           | 7-8 billion humans. Millions of ships, planes, farm machines
           | and other equipment.
           | 
           | Expansion will happen in all direction at the same time, in
           | all market. In very poor country a single village might share
           | one antenna. All the way to very expensive antennas for
           | military aircraft.
        
           | dotnet00 wrote:
           | There's an additional consideration regarding the price, that
           | poor places can probably share one terminal among one or more
           | villages, thus distributing the cost.
           | 
           | Another possibility is distributing costs by using Starlink
           | as backhaul. India for example already has very cheap high
           | speed mobile data, so a telecom company could spread out the
           | costs of terminals and service (maybe even get a better deal
           | for bulk usage) while simplifying and strengthening their own
           | infrastructure for remote or disaster-prone areas.
           | 
           | Plus, for SpaceX, any point where a satellite is inactive is
           | money left on the table, so they should have significant
           | price flexibility for places which can't afford the current
           | service fees but can afford something that is more than the
           | cost of bandwidth at the downlink station.
        
           | Out_of_Characte wrote:
           | Sattelite communication is generally more expensive than
           | cable or cell towers. Though about 70% of the earth is
           | unsuitable for these solutions. Alot of commercial boats are
           | still on very low bandwith connections but could potentially
           | benefit from higher bandwidth if only to make video calls or
           | netflix more available for a similar or higher price. Then
           | there are alot of smaller, private, boats that would benefit
           | from sattelite communication if costs werent prohibitive.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | If think the competitiveness of sats changes quite a bit
             | once you have really mass produced sats and the Starship.
             | 
             | It will like not beat earth bound stuff in many scenarios,
             | but it will be closer then it was in the past.
        
           | rdsubhas wrote:
           | Starlink is not yet ubiquitous even in western countries (EU,
           | UK, US, Can, ...). I believe the rapid expansion meant
           | becoming more ubiquitous in western countries and commercial
           | operations (shipnav, etc).
           | 
           | They have a long, long way to go before even talking about
           | developing countries which already are densely populated and
           | mostly have fast, cheap internet already.
        
           | nico wrote:
           | I live in the LA-metro area, 15min away from downtown LA This
           | is a pretty dense urban area, and we can only get Spectrum,
           | which goes down at least once a month for hours at a time, in
           | the middle of the day
           | 
           | The only other alternative is getting a microwave antenna for
           | $300/mo with a 4 year contract from a company called Geolinks
           | 
           | Had a similar issue when living in SF
           | 
           | Some buildings, and sometimes entire neighborhoods or small
           | cities, only have one (crappy) vendor
           | 
           | I'm no fan of Starlink or Musk, but there's definitely a
           | market for them in well established, densely populated areas
           | in rich countries
        
             | htss2013 wrote:
             | Adding "I'm not fan of Musk" is odd here. Is this some kind
             | of tribal signal? It's like writing about the market for
             | new AWS services, preceded by "I'm no fan of Bezos but..."
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | It's not odd. Musk had a big cult-like following, even on
               | HN. Bezos did not.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | [flagged]
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | Civics and industry co-exist in a healthy society. Musk
               | has consistently demonstrated that he has no civic sense
               | and, when injured, will randomly lash out at whoever the
               | hecklers around him tell him to lash out at.
               | 
               | That's not a quality that's worth celebrating, regardless
               | of how much innovation he might enable. We can and should
               | expect better of people, especially extraordinarily
               | wealthy and powerful ones.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | > he has no civic sense
               | 
               | What about the civic sense of proving that great electric
               | cars can be made at a profit, space launch costs can be
               | cut 90%, and Starlink can enable communications by people
               | who live under oppression?
               | 
               | Doesn't actually _doing_ things that _matter_ to the
               | human race matter _far_ more than saying comforting words
               | and avoiding giving offense?
        
               | Clubber wrote:
               | He's had the news mauling him for the past 2-3 years, I
               | understand people kinda just regurgitate it.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | threeseed wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | His accomplishments are enormous - showing how to make
               | electric cars at a profit, and cutting the cost of space
               | launches by 90%. And now Starlink, too.
               | 
               | Standing up for free speech includes standing up for the
               | right to express ideas you don't like. I'm sure he'll
               | allow you to post your opinions, too.
               | 
               | Suppressing free speech is the first step towards
               | tyranny.
        
               | hidl wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
             | pensatoio wrote:
             | > I'm no fan of Starlink or Musk
             | 
             | He's the driving force behind some of the greatest
             | innovations of our time. He's also just a person. I doubt
             | many people can say they've had greater impact or could
             | withstand the same scrutiny.
        
               | aidenn0 wrote:
               | > ...or could withstand the same scrutiny.
               | 
               | Not going to argue with the "greater impact" part, but
               | mean pretty much every C-level executive in America with
               | a twitter account manages to refrain from using it to
               | repeatedly commit securities fraud.
        
               | newaccount74 wrote:
               | People would have a much better opinion of him if he
               | stuck to realising crazy projects (an electric car thats
               | faster than a supercar, reusable rockets, solar panels
               | that look like normal roof tiles...) and kept his
               | questionable political opinions to himself.
        
               | threeseed wrote:
               | Everyone is free to have their political opinions.
               | 
               | The issue with Musk is that those opinions are being
               | manifested in the product decisions at Twitter e.g.
               | taking a laissez-faire attitude towards hate speech and
               | deliberating promoting controversial accounts in order to
               | drive engagement.
        
             | wkat4242 wrote:
             | Weird... Here in Barcelona I can get fibre from 3 different
             | providers (with actually separate networks at street
             | level).
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | dotnet00 wrote:
             | The reason they specified sparsely populated areas is that
             | Starlink is designed for sparsely populated areas. In a
             | denser area the performance would drop drastically because
             | you'd need far higher satellite density to sufficiently
             | distribute the load.
        
               | asynchronous wrote:
               | It's actually not the satellites as the bottleneck
               | typically from what I understand, it's the ground
               | stations that serve those areas getting too congested.
        
               | reportingsjr wrote:
               | The satellites may not currently be the bottleneck for
               | certain areas, but they definitely don't support anything
               | resembling a densely or even sparsely populated area.
               | 
               | Typical calculations (using only publicly available info
               | as a caveat) generally point towards the current starlink
               | constellation supporting a really low density of
               | antennas.
               | 
               | If you want the details, the person who created
               | starlink.sx has a great blog with some incredible
               | calculations[0]. The section that is most relevant is
               | under the heading "Simulation with TDM and beam spread
               | combined".
               | 
               | Basically, the result is that starlink could support
               | around 15 antennas/user terminals per "cell" at 75mbps,
               | where a cell is about 252 square km. This is roughly 1
               | terminal per 17 square km.
               | 
               | If you allow for 10x oversubscription, fairly common for
               | ISPs, that gets you to 1 terminal per 1.7 square km. Not
               | really that impressive when you compare it to the density
               | and services where 99.9% of people live, but it clearly
               | helps out the small number of people way out there.
               | 
               | 0: https://mikepuchol.com/modeling-starlink-
               | capacity-843b2387f5...
        
               | esskay wrote:
               | If they can get the interconnect working that issue goes
               | away (its mostly groundstation bandwidth limiting
               | things).
               | 
               | The 'end goal' is to have it use the laser link to send
               | the traffic across to a satellite close to the final
               | destination, that should in theory help massively
               | redistribute the ground station traffic.
               | 
               | It's obviously not foolproof, there's still bandwidth to
               | be shared there but using a combination of some clever
               | routing you could theoretically spread traffic across
               | multiple satellites and groundstations with minimal
               | latency impact.
        
               | labcomputer wrote:
               | That _may_ be true with current space vehicles, but
               | there's no fundamental reason that two or more SVs can't
               | form a distributed phased array (for MIMO a la WiFi). At
               | least from a physics  / spectrum perspective. The
               | engineering might be tricky.
               | 
               | With SVs separated by hundreds of km, the beam width
               | would be absolutely tiny, and channel reuse would be
               | effectively infinite.
        
               | rini17 wrote:
               | The distributed array will however share one link and
               | satellites don't have unlimited capacity either.
               | 
               | Wonder why you'd rather fill LEO to the brim, emitting
               | vast amounts of CO2 in the process and filling
               | stratosphere with metal oxides, than figure out how to
               | improve infrastructure in your neighborhood.
        
               | LeifCarrotson wrote:
               | I've never heard anyone complain about filling the
               | stratosphere with metal oxides, do you have somewhere I
               | can read more about this risk? Naively, I would have
               | expected that even thousands of 250kg satellites would be
               | insignificant on the scale of the whole stratosphere
               | (we're not talking about surface-level CO2, where we're
               | pumping out gigatons per year), but I have no idea what
               | that ecosystem is like. Is the metal oxide concentration
               | measurable?
               | 
               | I do think this is a temporary issue; once the cable ISP
               | monopolies are no longer valuable because anyone can just
               | get Starlink, that competitive pressure will push down
               | hard on those cable monopolies and infrastructure laws
               | will have to return to sanity. Terrestrial ISPs with
               | fiber-sharing requirements and appropriate infrastructure
               | build-out could absolutely out-compete Starlink, but
               | right now they can just collude together and lobby
               | against changing the status quo.
               | 
               | I would much prefer to have a functional bureaucracy and
               | intelligent, efficient infrastructure! But it's probably
               | easier to fix that by launching the largest satellite
               | constellation ever than by playing politics against some
               | of the wealthiest media companies on the planet.
        
               | Clubber wrote:
               | "Space junk," was a boogie man the news threw at the wall
               | and didn't quite stick. Many of the pictures/diagrams of
               | the satellites made them appear about 1000x bigger than
               | they actually are.
               | 
               | Example:
               | 
               | https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/space-
               | jun...
               | 
               | Beware the murder hornets!
               | 
               | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/us/asian-giant-hornet-
               | was...
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Compare the CO2 emissions of launching a satellite with
               | the CO2 emissions of digging trenches.
        
               | cozzyd wrote:
               | The right thing to compare it to is building a cell tower
        
               | anderspitman wrote:
               | How would you synchronize them?
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | Each satellite has N routers, and can support a certain
               | bandwidth. Even if you hardwired a long LAN cable to it,
               | more users drops the speed.
        
               | wayfinder wrote:
               | I imagine the total cost of installation and ongoing
               | maintenance of all the infrastructure required for this
               | proposed setup for a substantial amount of urban users
               | dwarfs the equivalent total cost of just installing new
               | cabling and the lobbying required to get that done,
               | especially over a 20 year period.
        
               | jtchang wrote:
               | Don't underestimate lobbying costs in dense urban areas.
               | Whenever you have to deal with people the alternative is
               | often easier.
        
               | dotnet00 wrote:
               | Hadn't heard of that concept before, sounds pretty
               | interesting! Will have to read up on it more.
        
           | MangoCoffee wrote:
           | Apple is offering satellite phone service. Starlink shown
           | it's important in the Ukraine-Russia war. There is Starshield
           | for the government uses. Whatever shortcoming of current
           | telecommunication, Starlink can supplement it.
        
             | sp332 wrote:
             | Apple is offering emergency satellite _text_ service.
        
               | rightbyte wrote:
               | In only one direction too right? I e. you don't know if
               | the message has been received?
        
               | V99 wrote:
               | You do, you can try it with updating your find my
               | location without an actual emergency. It tells you where
               | to point/hold and when it's done.
               | 
               | The emergency texting is also 2-way.
        
               | jaywalk wrote:
               | No, it's bidirectional.
        
               | gregsadetsky wrote:
               | It's two-way: https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT213426
               | 
               | "Once you're connected, your iPhone starts a text
               | conversation with emergency responders by sharing
               | critical information [...]
               | 
               | You might be asked to respond to additional messages.
               | Only Latin characters (such as English or French) are
               | supported in these messages. [...]"
        
               | rightbyte wrote:
               | Ok, nice, then my colleague got it wrong.
        
             | dpkirchner wrote:
             | [flagged]
        
               | taftster wrote:
               | StarShield came out of that though, which might be a
               | legitimate compromise. e.g. governments purchase
               | StarShield and then just do whatever they want with the
               | constellation.
               | 
               | I don't disagree with your sentiments here. But if you've
               | got a service and it's being used for war (regardless of
               | whose side you're on or how patriotic you are), it's not
               | abusive (from my perspective) to just opt out providing
               | service. If Musk is completely a pacifist, which I doubt
               | but let's go with it, then StarShield might end up being
               | a reasonable compromise.
        
               | katbyte wrote:
               | Decided. He has already blocked their use
               | https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/9/13/russias-
               | putin-p...
        
               | dotnet00 wrote:
               | That turned out to be yet another instance of CNN lying
               | about/acting on insufficient/poor information and has
               | since been walked back by the very person that made the
               | original allegation. Confusingly in direct contradiction
               | with supposed excerpts from his book.
               | 
               | Isn't even the first time they falsely alleged that
               | SpaceX shut down Starlink to cause Ukraine trouble and
               | failed to follow up with a correction as loudly as they
               | made the original claims.
               | 
               | https://twitter.com/WalterIsaacson/status/170034224229090
               | 136...
        
           | realusername wrote:
           | I'm also not sure the financial aspect is going to work.
           | There's not many developed countries without proper fiber
           | rollout and very poor countries likely can't support the high
           | infrastructure cost. You're left after that with marginal use
           | cases (boat, remote places...) which won't be enough either.
           | 
           | There's a reason why the comments are mentioning rural US,
           | because it's a clear outlier among the developped world.
        
             | snovv_crash wrote:
             | The developing world is typically unequal, not universally
             | poor. There are a lot of people in Africa and South America
             | who would get drastically improved internet with Starlink,
             | and can actually afford it.
        
               | realusername wrote:
               | I'm sure you can find such places, is there enough of
               | them to fund the service which is very expensive? That
               | I'm not so sure.
               | 
               | When people are richer, they also tend to live in
               | countries where the internet access is very important to
               | the state and where installing good internet is an
               | important public policy.
               | 
               | Of course you have exceptions to that general case but
               | I'm not convinced those exceptions are enough by
               | themselves.
               | 
               | They are in a very different market than a traditional
               | product, they are basically servicing the people that
               | nobody else want to service and the distribution of
               | revenue in that group is going to be drastically
               | different from the norm.
        
           | Robotbeat wrote:
           | They're rapidly launching more and more capacity. The new v2
           | mini satellites are more than twice as big as the v1.5
           | satellites, which themselves are not yet totally in service.
           | 
           | And as they improve the cost of terminals, there's no
           | fundamental limit in the amount of capacity for a given
           | frequency allocation. Geometric multiplexing is only limited
           | by the number and cost of the phased array elements.
           | 
           | So rapid expansion everywhere.
           | 
           | And then launching the full sized v2 Starlink satellites on
           | Starship will account for another ~2-2.5x increase in size
           | compared to the v2 minis. Then comes FCC approval for the
           | full sized constellation which is about 5 times as numerous
           | as their current constellation, which itself only is about
           | half filled.
           | 
           | So they have about a factor of 100 capacity expansion in the
           | pipeline, and they can increase the satellite size even
           | further due to Starship's low costs. They can expand a lot,
           | even in existing countries. Lots of people are on waiting
           | lists due to capacity being filled up in many regions.
        
             | wbl wrote:
             | Phased arrays aren't magic. The sharpness of the aperture
             | depends on the physical extent of the antenna and very
             | sharp mainlobes come with additional sidelobes.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Of course.
        
             | SEJeff wrote:
             | > Then comes FCC approval for the full sized constellation
             | which is about 5 times as numerous as their current
             | constellation, which itself only is about half filled.
             | 
             | SpaceX has launched just under 5,100 Starlink satellites to
             | orbit, of which a single digit percentage have either been
             | deorbited for testing, failure, solar storm knocking them
             | out, etc. Their current constellation total size is
             | approved to be around 12,000 satellites. They've been
             | working to get additional approvals up to 42,000
             | satellites.
        
           | xeromal wrote:
           | Large swaths of the US have bunk internet like Earthlink. My
           | rural family in Appalachia already like Musk. I think they'd
           | love to have Starlink if it was a little more affordable.
        
             | qup wrote:
             | Earthlink still exists?
             | 
             | Wow. When I was a kid, we would steal "ELN" accounts for
             | dial-up and then hop on to AOL via TCP/IP.
             | 
             | Edit: we did that so when we got punted we didn't have to
             | go throigh the whole dial-up sequence. Which happened a lot
             | in those days if you were twelve years old.
        
               | xeromal wrote:
               | I miss the early days of the internet.
        
               | bookofjoe wrote:
               | My psychiatrist still has an Earthlink email address. I
               | started seeing him in 1991 and we still talk 30 minutes
               | every 4 months just for lulz.
        
             | Loughla wrote:
             | We live in a very rural area. The one time the federal
             | government really came through for me was fiber development
             | grants a few years ago.
             | 
             | We went from Wild Blue internet, which was garbage all
             | around, for $120/mo to a full gig fiber connection locked
             | in at $80/mo for life. It cost us $200 to hook it up.
             | 
             | More and more rural isp's are getting into fiber with
             | grants.
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | And SpaceX was going to get some of that grant money as
               | well. But they messed it up somehow.
        
               | inemesitaffia wrote:
               | They very well may still get it
        
           | snapplebobapple wrote:
           | Near term naval and aircraft. Regarding rural third world:
           | the thing about a satellite is it is basically going around
           | in a circle. If the business plan was built around being
           | profitable over the first world then everywhere not over the
           | first world is basically free because you have to build
           | whatever bandwidth you want to provide the first world around
           | the entire orbital ring.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | starbase wrote:
           | Friend in a developing country has Starlink, he says the dish
           | is about $100 cheaper there and service is just under $50 per
           | month.
        
           | politician wrote:
           | I'd buy service to put it on my rooftop to both put economic
           | pressure on the local ISP duopoly in the form of an
           | unambiguous publicly visible third alternative and, also, as
           | a backup.
        
             | SEJeff wrote:
             | This is part of why I bought a Starlink dish and put it on
             | the roof of the house I'm doing a full rehab on before the
             | siding was installed. It will give me dual homed internet
             | for when the crap local ISP has issues and a hedge against
             | a single ISP with spotty service.
             | 
             | Ironically, in doing this, I have managed to meet and
             | convince a project manager of a new ISP to add our
             | neighborhood to the list to places to pull fiber to, but it
             | will likely be about a year out.
        
             | jtriangle wrote:
             | I know of a couple places that are using starlink as
             | failover because they're only serviced by a single ISP.
             | Makes sense really, and cheaper than 4/5g failover.
        
       | dotnet00 wrote:
       | As far as I know, the terminals were mainly so expensive due to
       | the large phased array antenna. I wonder if these cost reductions
       | are mainly from managing to produce them cheaply and if that
       | might be valuable as a commoditized phased array for other
       | applications.
        
         | scld wrote:
         | I would be surprised if the older, higher costs didn't include
         | broker fees for scarce ICs in the supply shortage. I'm sure
         | they've gone through a few revisions but part of that cost drop
         | is simply price of components dropping.
        
         | cfcosta wrote:
         | I also imagine they can work with cheaper antennas now that
         | they have many more satellites on orbit.
        
         | starbase wrote:
         | Parts count has gone way down. Gen 1 terminals used something
         | like 80 beamformer ICs with 8 frontend ICs for each one. 700+
         | chips on the board.
         | 
         | Gen 3 runs 16 beamformers with 2 frontends each.
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | The F-22's APG-77 phased array radar became cheaper when one
         | key component became a commercial off the shelf part for wifi
         | routers.
        
           | teleforce wrote:
           | I'm curious, can you share the name of that particular key
           | component?
        
             | carabiner wrote:
             | No idea unfortunately. I think I read this a long time ago
             | possibly from a Bill Sweetman report.
        
               | teleforce wrote:
               | Thanks for the clue, apparently it's the GaAs MMIC
               | technology according to the ChatGPT-4 [1]. I've should
               | have figured it out in the first place due to my previous
               | research work of Gallium Nitride (GaN) technology that
               | now become the successor to GaAs technology due to high
               | power Radar requirements. I suppose this is where ChatGPT
               | become really handy for research, as Google is extremely
               | useful for search.
               | 
               | Similarly with LIDAR, the autonomous vehicles demand has
               | made the LIDAR sensor now become very affordable for the
               | masses.
               | 
               | [1] ChatGPT-4 response:
               | 
               | "The key component of the F-22's APG-77 phased array
               | radar that was made cheaper by Wi-Fi technologies,
               | according to Bill Sweetman's reports, is the Gallium
               | Arsenide (GaAs) Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit
               | (MMIC) technology. This technology was significantly
               | reduced in cost due to its widespread use in commercial
               | Wi-Fi systems, allowing the defense industry to leverage
               | economies of scale and reduce the overall cost of
               | producing the radar system for the F-22 Raptor."
        
         | wkat4242 wrote:
         | The array itself no, because the size of the elements is a
         | function of the transmit frequency.
         | 
         | The driver IC's, perhaps.
        
       | canucker2016 wrote:
       | related news, ars article quotes WSJ article,
       | https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/09/spacex-projected...:
       | 
       | "A 2015 presentation that "SpaceX used to raise money from
       | investors" reportedly projected that in 2022, Starlink would hit
       | 20 million subscribers and generate nearly $12 billion in revenue
       | and $7 billion in operating profit. The WSJ said it obtained the
       | 2015 presentation and recent documents with numbers on Starlink's
       | actual performance in 2022.
       | 
       | Actual Starlink revenue for 2022 was $1.4 billion, up from $222
       | million in 2021, according to the report. The documents
       | apparently didn't specify whether Starlink is profitable."
        
         | dmix wrote:
         | You _always_ make pie in the sky projections when raising money
         | in the very early days.
         | 
         | Still a $1.4 billion (in revenue) dollar company with a real
         | business model and market dominance _shrugs_
        
           | justapassenger wrote:
           | It's cool, for sure. But until they stop selling a dollar for
           | 90c, then they don't have real business model.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _until they stop selling a dollar for 90c, then they don
             | 't have real business model_
             | 
             | Starlink is glued to a transport monopoly. It doesn't take
             | much imagination to see how economies of scale on
             | production and marketing make those numbers work.
        
             | fallingknife wrote:
             | Amazon sold a dollar for 90 cents for 20 years, and I don't
             | see anyone laughing now. It's not a bad business model for
             | a massive fixed cost but minimal marginal cost business
             | like Starlink.
        
               | justapassenger wrote:
               | It does have minimal marginal cost, as long as you live
               | in the right place on earth, without many other customers
               | next to you.
               | 
               | Once you exceed, fairly limited amount of people that can
               | use it one cell, you need to grow massively your fixed
               | cost, as you need to grow the whole constellation or just
               | won't be able to grow.
               | 
               | Time will tell if that will add up. I don't think it's
               | obvious it will.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | Given my observation of the space and EV industry in the last 5
         | years, this seems downright reasonable.
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | The criticism chain for Elon Musk's ventures is usually "It's
         | impossible! This is a scam!" -> "He promised he would have X
         | five years ago!" -> "He has too much money / power / a
         | monopoly! Something has to be done!"
        
         | _Microft wrote:
         | A prediction made seven years into the future, for a service
         | which didn't exist then, only off by an order of magnitude
         | doesn't sound too bad imo.
        
           | arbuge wrote:
           | Quite correct. Less than 2 years off from that timeline if it
           | continues with its current growth rate.
        
           | sergiosgc wrote:
           | Sporting a growth rate that, if it holds, means the
           | prediction was off only by a couple of years.
        
           | b59831 wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | xoa wrote:
           | Additionally, holy _crap_ has a lot changed in that time.
           | Falcon 9 didn 't complete its first landing until the very
           | end of 2015 with Flight 20. What's now routine and key to
           | their costs is a feat less than a decade old. SpaceX was
           | still talking about the Mars transport/BFR at that, which
           | were very different in a variety of ways from the Starship
           | SS/SH system we see now. What they've got now feels a lot
           | more practical and sustainable long term, moving to steel for
           | example was a great change.
           | 
           | So as far as long term forward looking plans go I'd agree
           | that execution here was pretty darn good, and they've got a
           | very clear roadmap for the next 5 years as well with full
           | size v2 sats waiting in the wings and Starship proceeding
           | along at a solid clip. It was a curiously negative feeling
           | piece particularly for the WSJ. How many companies execute
           | ambitious highly capital intensive global scale
           | infrastructure rollouts using never been done combos of tech
           | at never been done price points and pull it off like that?
        
           | pavon wrote:
           | 60 million people live in rural areas in the US, over 40
           | million of those already have broadband at home[1], and less
           | than 2 million people subscribed to satellite internet before
           | Starlink launched[2]. His projection of 20 million
           | subscribers would have meant that literally every single
           | rural individual who didn't already have broadband would sign
           | up for Starlink within a couple years of being available.
           | Okay, that's not entirely fair because Starlink does business
           | in more than just the US, but still, that was an
           | unrealistically aggressive projection even 7 years ago.
           | 
           | I think Starlink is doing great, but Musk's projections are
           | notoriously bad, and there is no reason to defend them.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/08/19/some-
           | digi...
           | 
           | [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20181020011542/https://www.st
           | ron...
        
             | inemesitaffia wrote:
             | The world is a big place. With billions of people
        
             | fallingknife wrote:
             | This is misleading for several reasons. The FCC defines
             | broadband as 25/3 mbit up/down, which is not fast. Also it
             | doesn't take into account latency which is a major problem
             | with geostationary satellites. So plenty of those 40
             | million with "broadband" are going to want to switch to
             | better service anyway.
             | 
             | Your first article concedes as much:
             | 
             | > Even though rural areas are more wired today than in the
             | past, current infrastructure does not support consistently
             | dependable broadband access in many rural areas. This lack
             | of reliable high-speed internet access has come to the
             | forefront of discussions about navigating remote work and
             | school during the coronavirus pandemic.
             | 
             | Your second link states that there are 1.7 million
             | satellite internet subscribers in the US. But Starlink
             | already has that many subscribers, so it is clear that the
             | market size is much more than just existing satellite
             | users.
        
               | pavon wrote:
               | Even if 100% of rural customers were dissatisfied with
               | their existing service, projecting that you will capture
               | a third of the potential market within a few years of
               | providing service is unrealistically aggressive.
        
       | Damogran6 wrote:
       | There's always a guy in these threads and this time it's me.
       | 
       | Sure wish they had an a-la-cart option. We're in the Trailer 6
       | weeks a year, over 5 trips, and starlink internet access is $150
       | a month, for the full month.
       | 
       | This isn't unique to starlink, if I need any kind of bandwidth,
       | it's $80 for a 100gb month of Verizon.
       | 
       | I'm already paying for tethering on the AT&T phones, and Comcast
       | at home. This stuff really adds up if you're doing any kind of
       | travel.
        
         | tobyjsullivan wrote:
         | Do you mean an option to pay per Gb of usage, rather than
         | monthly?
         | 
         | At least its a possible offering now that they won't be losing
         | money on the terminal (thus necessitating predictable time-to-
         | recover via monthly subscription).
         | 
         | That said, I wouldn't hold my breath. There are good reasons
         | very few businesses offer that option alongside monthly plans.
        
           | Damogran6 wrote:
           | I'd be good for that, but those situations generally end up
           | being more expensive than just buying a month.
           | 
           | Not only that, it's trivially easy to have a single poorly
           | choked device blow through a cap. (e.g. one laptop decides it
           | wants to download paath updates...the Tier you have is $60
           | for 25gb or $80 for 100gb...or, you know, $150 for uncapped
           | starlink.)
           | 
           | The amount of brainspace required to have reliable internet
           | access in an RV is crazy....and it won't be cheap.
        
         | throwawaaarrgh wrote:
         | Sounds like a secondary market opportunity. Keep 20 Starlink
         | subscriptions, rent them out for a few days at a time at
         | $8/day. $600 deposit on the antenna.
        
           | Damogran6 wrote:
           | I'm betting that's all sewn up in a click-wrap EULA
           | somewhere.
        
       | davidktr wrote:
       | Funny, just two hours ago I saw my first Starlink satellite train
       | running across the sky. It felt spooky and futuristic at the same
       | time.
        
       | _whiteCaps_ wrote:
       | Strange - I see them on sale for $199 CAD.
       | 
       | They seem to be sprouting from off-grid cabins around here. I'm
       | posting from one right now via Starlink :)
        
         | mortureb wrote:
         | Starlink was good but not for me because I was surrounded by
         | trees. I had an interruption every 3 mins. Sometimes for a
         | couple of seconds and sometimes for a few minutes. There's no
         | disruption when you're streaming things but it makes video
         | calls almost impossible which is what I needed the most for my
         | job. Ended up keeping starlink _and_ reenabling my Viasat
         | system just for the video calls. I have a wired fiber
         | connection now and it's heaven.
        
           | pnpnp wrote:
           | A hack I've seen people do is to mount Starlink to the top of
           | a tall tree (and cut the very top off the tree).
           | 
           | It has a built-in IMU, and can tolerate some ridiculous
           | amount of sway since the phased array antenna can steer the
           | beam so quickly.
        
             | mortureb wrote:
             | Yeah I considered it but the trees around my house were
             | 70-80 ft high so it wasn't trivial.
        
         | downrightmike wrote:
         | If you have the will to resell, you could do a WISP:
         | https://www.npr.org/2022/08/22/1118734792/michigan-man-
         | isp-f....
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | What something sales for and what something costs are two
         | completely different things.
         | 
         | Quite often game consoles sell for less than the cost of
         | production, they make it back on the games/services you buy.
        
           | _whiteCaps_ wrote:
           | Yes, but the point of the article is that they aren't doing
           | this any more.
           | 
           | I'm pointing out that's not true if you live in certain
           | places.
           | 
           | https://mobilesyrup.com/2023/05/03/starlink-hardware-
           | sale-70...
           | 
           | "SpaceX's satellite internet platform currently has its
           | hardware on sale for $199 for rural Canadians, down from the
           | usual $759."
        
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