[HN Gopher] Lithium discovery in US volcano could be biggest dep...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Lithium discovery in US volcano could be biggest deposit ever found
        
       Author : jseliger
       Score  : 631 points
       Date   : 2023-09-09 22:27 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.chemistryworld.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.chemistryworld.com)
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | Why do elements group together into a deposit instead of being
       | evenly mixed like soup?
        
         | AndrewDucker wrote:
         | I assume that liquids at different densities form different
         | layers. And maybe surface tension helps?
        
       | pfdietz wrote:
       | I would not be too surprised if there were more deposits in the
       | US southwest. While the specific sequence of events for this one
       | may be unique, there was tremendous volcanic activity there
       | during the "Mid-Tertiary Ignimbrite Flareup". This event, from
       | about 25-40 million years ago, produced enough pyroclastic
       | deposits that (if evenly spread) would bury the entire
       | continental US 55 meters deep. I believe the largest known
       | supervolcanic eruption ever was part of this period.
        
       | Roark66 wrote:
       | How these two sentences are in any way compatible with eachother:
       | 
       | >company will (..) separate out the small lithium-bearing grains
       | from larger minerals by centrifuging. The clay will then be
       | leached in vats of sulfuric acid to extract lithium.
       | 
       | And:
       | 
       | >'If they can extract the lithium in a very low energy intensive
       | way, or in a process that does not consume much acid, then this
       | can be economically very significant,'
       | 
       | Centrifuging doesn't seem to be a very low energy process
       | compared with what they do in Bolivia (just let the water
       | evaporate in huge shallow lakes then gather the material with
       | dozers). And the acid thing is just contradictory. They plan to
       | leach with sulphuric acid and hope to find a way to not use acid
       | at the same time?
       | 
       | It is very good more lithium deposits are found outside China,
       | but isn't lithium one of most abundant things on earth? And isn't
       | the key difficulty in economic extraction the fact established
       | mines use practices that would not be allowed in places like
       | US/Europe?
       | 
       | Surely, we should start with funding r&d to come up with an
       | economic and less polluting process of extraction.
        
       | jbverschoor wrote:
       | Will this mean peace in Africa?
        
       | aa_is_op wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and
         | flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's
         | not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.
         | 
         | If you wouldn't mind reviewing
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the
         | intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
        
           | aa_is_op wrote:
           | Mister HN moderator.... maybe you should read more about
           | China's extensive efforts to control the rare earth mining
           | market using anti-mining campaigns in countries such as the
           | US and Australia.
           | 
           | Examples:
           | 
           | https://www.businessinsider.com/pro-china-propaganda-
           | campaig...
           | 
           | https://qz.com/1962580/china-is-insecure-about-its-global-
           | ra...
           | 
           | https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/06/20/can-australia-
           | brea...
           | 
           | It's not my fault autocratic regimes are flooding the
           | internet with propaganda. The comment isn't "flamebait" at
           | all. It's a representation of China's frustration that rare
           | earth minerals exist anywhere outside its borders.
        
             | dang wrote:
             | Sorry, but it was an unsubstantive one-liner on a divisive
             | topic, and those are flamebait.
        
       | panick21_ wrote:
       | As with all the 5000 news articles talking about lithium
       | discovers, please remember, lithium is very common, discovering
       | it is easy, there is plenty around and plenty of known location.
       | 
       | However lithium operates more like a advanced chemical then a
       | base metal. Each mine lithium mine is different and has to be
       | separately qualified for each battery manufactures/car company.
       | 
       | There are very, very few companies who have actually managed to
       | produce battery grade lithium and many, many company who have
       | been struggling for years to achieve it.
       | 
       | We simply don't have a lithium problem, what is lacking is the
       | expertise to actually bring deposits like this to use.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | It's not so much an expertise problem but more a problem of
         | having to tailor the process to the supply of lithium. We're
         | talking typically low quantities of lithium mixed with a lot of
         | other materials in either some kind of clay, brine, or rock. Or
         | recycled lithium batteries. Those sources of lithium require
         | different approaches and there are multiple companies working
         | on all of those.
         | 
         | Historically, lithium was not interesting to mine at scale
         | until the invention of lithium batteries thirty years ago. And
         | only about ten years ago we figured out that we needed a lot of
         | lithium to power things like cars, trucks, planes and
         | electricity grids.
         | 
         | We've only been looking for lithium for a relatively short
         | amount of time. Before we started looking, it was a relatively
         | low value by product of mining other stuff. There's this
         | perception that we have to go to places like Bolivia,
         | Australia, etc. because that's where the known, easy to access
         | deposits are. But as this article shows, there are probably
         | loads of other places that might have rich lithium deposits.
         | 
         | The market for refining lithium is basically expanding at the
         | pace we can build refineries. It's apparently a big reason
         | Tesla chose to build their own refinery in Texas because the
         | rest of the industry was not moving quick enough. Supplying
         | lithium to the refinery isn't the issue. There's plenty of it.
         | And if you start looking, you'll find some more. Rich deposits
         | like this are of course nice and rare. The high concentration
         | of lithium means extracting it is relatively cheap. But you can
         | get it out of ocean water, there are natural brines in various
         | places that have it, clay and rock deposits all over the place.
         | By mass, it's one of the more common elements on this planet.
        
           | usrusr wrote:
           | Sounds like every discovery is bad news for the environment
           | because it raises the threshold for recycling even higher?
        
             | dv_dt wrote:
             | I don't see why, recycling is refinement at a high density
             | in a form that is near perfect for battery use. It's
             | probably more in wait of a high enough volume of input
             | materials.
        
         | mkoubaa wrote:
         | So then if prices of battery-grade lithium go up enough then
         | it'll incentivize new production techniques?
        
           | judge2020 wrote:
           | They already are. With increased production, the price per
           | unit staying stable means you either have an extremely mature
           | industry, or the existing players don't have any competition
           | and can maintain insane YoY increases off of volume alone.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | There are various different compound of lithium at different
           | qualities that count as 'battery grade'. That is what makes
           | the market so complex.
           | 
           | But generally speaking yes, there are 100s of junior lithium
           | miners and all the big miners as well engaged in lithium
           | extraction.
           | 
           | Clay is as of yet untouched in mass production of lithium
           | with many companies wanting to exploit it.
           | 
           | Maybe most common is research on DLE, lithium extraction from
           | brine where the brine is simply pumped back. This also exists
           | in a deep brine variant where you pump water from super deep
           | reservoirs.
           | 
           | The problem is the ev market is going gang busters and even
           | established companies spend decades on getting new plants up
           | and running.
        
         | nonethewiser wrote:
         | Does the UK have lots of lithium in their borders? France?
         | Germany?
         | 
         | Im sympathetic to the point that its fairly common but cant we
         | overstate it's abundance? As far as I know its not very evenly
         | distributed and not everyone has good access to it.
        
           | __s wrote:
           | https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-lithium-
           | resource-...
           | 
           | Europe may've gotten the short end of the stick, but there's
           | plenty
        
             | nonethewiser wrote:
             | That shows none in the vast majority of European countries.
             | Im sure there is more than that diagram shows but its not
             | what the diagram shows.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | There are more locations in Europe then that. Britain used
             | to get Lithium from Cornwall and there are companies trying
             | to revive that. But Europe simply hasn't put much effort
             | into finding them.
             | 
             | If need be plenty more could found in Europe.
        
               | bbarnett wrote:
               | When I read that something is being shipped to China for
               | processing, it makes me mentally add "Where there are no
               | environmental laws, and processing in a very polluting
               | way is OK".
               | 
               | If you process many things in the West, you can't leave
               | toxic chemicals in pools any more, to leak into ground
               | water and cause cancer and other problems for people. So
               | processing costs are going to be way more expensive than
               | in a place where it's still OK to process+pollute and
               | therefore kill and maim your citizens to make money.
               | 
               | The West cannot compete with that.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | I think people are to quick to just talk away any success
               | China has as 'don't care for the environment' and 'don't
               | care for people'. This might be sometimes true bit also
               | more often isn't.
               | 
               | Do you have actual evidence that lithium refining is a
               | massively dirty industrial process that would cost
               | multiple times more the West? Or are you speculating?
               | 
               | Tesla is building a lithium refining plant in Texas right
               | now, they didn't seem to have massive environmental
               | problems and delays so far.
               | 
               | In reality, the lead china has in these fields is more
               | because of state investment policy and their drive to
               | have an export car market. They saw the EV revolution as
               | being able to make that happen, and it did.
        
               | wonderwonder wrote:
               | That's the thing with people promoting communism, they
               | always see themselves assigned to do something similar to
               | what they do now. No one ever expects to be the person
               | sent to the lithium smelting plant.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | redeeman wrote:
               | its also funny how the most committed communists are
               | those who wants others to fund it. Their exact level of
               | "take home money" to spend on what they want, is the
               | EXACT amount that "should be allowed". Similar to how
               | bernie sanders were giving his "millionaires and
               | billionaires" spiel, when he then became a millionaire
               | himself, the tune changed, and his speeches became
               | "billionaires!". And suddenly "you too can become a
               | millionaire if you write a book"
        
           | rgmerk wrote:
           | I know it wasn't exactly your point, but the UK imports 46%
           | of its food.[1] If one was going to be paranoid about import
           | dependence, I think that ranks a tad higher up the list.
           | 
           | Not every country is going to be self-sufficient in every
           | natural resource, or be efficient producers of every product
           | or service.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/united-
           | kingd...
        
             | nonethewiser wrote:
             | > If one was going to be paranoid
             | 
             | Whether or not its paranoia is the issue so you can't
             | presuppose it. Also, there is no reason you cant be
             | concerned about multiple dependencies at the same time. In
             | this case the topic is lithium.
        
             | simondotau wrote:
             | I'm sure the UK is reliant on imports in order to enjoy a
             | full breadth of non-essential discretionary choices, and to
             | sustain current levels of food waste. I think it could be
             | misleading to describe that as "import dependent". If the
             | UK lost all access to international trade, people would
             | have to change their diets. Diets would contain more meat,
             | fish, cheese, root vegetables and wheat. They'd contain
             | less rice, processed food, sugar, and a narrower selection
             | of fruits.
             | 
             | I've no doubt that a sudden cataclysmic change to
             | international trade would spike food prices and increase
             | poverty-derived food insecurity. But I doubt there would be
             | physical calorie shortages.
        
               | eru wrote:
               | > I've no doubt that a sudden cataclysmic change to
               | international trade would spike food prices and increase
               | poverty-derived food insecurity. But I doubt there would
               | be physical calorie shortages.
               | 
               | If there was a sudden change, there might be calorie
               | shortages. However, I agree that if importing become more
               | expensive over the longer run, or even if there was a
               | quick change, but one that could be predicted years in
               | advance, there would be no calorie shortages.
               | 
               | However, the same is true for lithium: the UK could mine
               | its own lithium, if importing become infeasible. I am not
               | sure though, if it would make commercial sense even then:
               | you can make batteries (and other gadgets) without
               | lithium, and for many applications you can make do
               | without batteries at all.
               | 
               | Eg instead of solely driving electric cars with home-
               | grown lithium batteries, on the margin I would expect
               | more people to take the train.
        
               | Symbiote wrote:
               | There was already a preview of this a year or two ago,
               | when there was a shortage of salad vegetables in the UK
               | (Brexit + Covid + weather, I think). The government
               | minister recommended eating turnips instead, as they were
               | in surplus.
        
         | foota wrote:
         | This is really interesting, could you explain a little more? Is
         | it that each of these mines is a different lithium compound,
         | and there's no economical process to convert it to some base
         | form?
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Just to be clear, I'm not a chemists. This is just what I
           | have learned from following this industry. Any real domain
           | expert feel free to correct or expand.
           | 
           | Lithium comes in many forms, on a high level there are 3,
           | hard rock, clay and brine.
           | 
           | Hard rock was initially common, when lithium was new and was
           | mined in North Carolina. It turn out it was cheaper to
           | produce lithium from brines in South America. This basically
           | means pumping salty water from below the earth and using the
           | sun to evaproate the water [2].
           | 
           | However since the battery revolution, Australia has been a
           | leading miner of Spodumene [1]. This then shipped to China
           | and turned into lithium chemicals.
           | 
           | Clay has not yet been exploited, but many are tying (like
           | Tesla showed in their presentation). Another technology much
           | talked about is Direct Lithium Extraction, that simple
           | extracts lithium and releases slightly less salty water back
           | into the environment.
           | 
           | From these mining operations two different chemicals are
           | produced as input for battery cathode refining processes,
           | lithium carbonate [3] and lithium hydroxide [4]. Different
           | methods of mining and refining produce either of those. If my
           | understanding is correct, most brine operations end up being
           | carbonate and most hard rock operations end up as hydroxide.
           | Often hydroxide is also produced from carbonate as a follow
           | up process.
           | 
           | Depending on your cathode material and your process you need
           | carbonate or hydroxide of specific quality. And because the
           | material performance here is so important and the battery as
           | a system is so sensitive, even the slight changes in source
           | material and the process can have large impacts. Even the
           | slight changes in source material and the process can have
           | big effects.
           | 
           | So that means if you have a mine, you can't just mine do
           | minimal refinement and then throw it on to the international
           | standardized metals market the way it works for other
           | materials. You need to build a highly sophisticated chemical
           | processing facility that can handle your material
           | specifically and produce high quality materials in a
           | sufficient quantity that car makers can go threw the many
           | rounds of testing that are required before a new source
           | material ever makes it into a car.
           | 
           | Since the lithium industry is comparatively so small the
           | necessary expertise to do these things is not at all common.
           | A few companies can do it and that's not very many people. So
           | getting a team together that can pull of a major project like
           | that isn't easy.
           | 
           | Some media sources that do lot of good reporting:
           | 
           | Global Lithium Podcast -
           | https://www.globallithium.net/podcast - Opinion-ed Insider
           | and Interviews
           | 
           | The Limiting Factor -
           | https://www.youtube.com/@thelimitingfactor/videos - Well
           | researched videos on batteries but also lithium supply
           | chains. Also some interviews with experts.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spodumene
           | 
           | [2] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cd/Lithi
           | um_...
           | 
           | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_carbonate
           | 
           | [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_hydroxide
        
             | senectus1 wrote:
             | very interesting, thank you.
        
             | natmaka wrote:
             | Indeed! According to Hannah Ritchie:
             | 
             | - The world has enough lithium for our electric vehicles,
             | decades into the future.
             | 
             | - The world is currently not producing enough of it to keep
             | up with demand. This could be a major bottleneck this
             | decade.
             | 
             | https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/lithium-
             | electric-v...
        
               | eru wrote:
               | > - The world has enough lithium for our electric
               | vehicles, decades into the future.
               | 
               | We are sitting on a huge pile of matter, the earth. We
               | have enough of every mineral to last us more than just
               | 'decades'. (Remember the 'peak phosphorus' panic a few
               | years ago?)
               | 
               | Your second point is the more interesting question: what
               | are the costs of extraction? Is available supply keeping
               | up?
        
             | michaelmrose wrote:
             | Great research thanks
        
             | xeromal wrote:
             | Appreciate this comment. This is why I love hackernews.
        
             | mjan22640 wrote:
             | Why is buying whatever composition crudely refined at the
             | various mines and turning that into a precisely controlled
             | product for sale for use in batteries not viable?
        
               | taneq wrote:
               | I'd assume from the above that you'd pretty much need a
               | different processing plant for each site that you're
               | buying from.
        
             | starkparker wrote:
             | > So that means if you have a mine, you can't just mine do
             | minimal refinement and then throw it on to the
             | international standardized metals market the way it works
             | for other materials. You need to build a highly
             | sophisticated chemical processing facility that can handle
             | your material specifically and produce high quality
             | materials in a sufficient quantity that car makers can go
             | threw the many rounds of testing that are required before a
             | new source material ever makes it into a car.
             | 
             | Grain of salt, but Jindalee claims 97-98% extraction rate
             | on acid leeching cores at the McDermitt site on the
             | northern caldera, on an inferred 21.5 million tons of
             | lithium carbonate equivalent. They're expecting 1400 ppm on
             | 3 Bt. Cores from Lithium Americas's inferred 19 Mt LCE find
             | at Thacker Pass on the southern caldera is extracting at
             | 84% on acid leeching. (For context, Clayton Valley's brine
             | project converts at 85%.)
             | 
             | Jindalee also claims they can also extract lithium
             | phosphate from it and convert it to either carbonate or
             | hydroxide. That's cool, but they don't really go into the
             | cost of doing that, but I think the point is that it's
             | supposedly a very flexible lode.
             | 
             | > Since the lithium industry is comparatively so small the
             | necessary expertise to do these things is not at all
             | common. A few companies can do it and that's not very many
             | people. So getting a team together that can pull of a major
             | project like that isn't easy.
             | 
             | GM and POSCO (the Korean cathode active material supplier
             | for GM) are already working with Jindalee on feasibility of
             | exploiting clay at scale, and GM already bought $650M of
             | equity in Lithium Americas back in January for Thacker
             | Pass. Probably know by February/March 2024 what the damage
             | will be for processing clay, but Jindalee already expects
             | to know whether they'll be shovels-in-ground by June 2024.
             | 
             | That is a very fast turnaround for something that hasn't
             | really been done before at any scale, much less 30 Mt of
             | LCE-scale. Which I think is also why this article is a bit
             | more focused on whether they can learn enough from _how_
             | this find came about to make more finds like it. They might
             | not know how to extract clay for a while, but if they can
             | learn how to _find_ more similarly exploitable clay first,
             | they can get more investment to catch up.
             | 
             | Inferring >30 Mt of LCE at 1400 ppm from just two sites in
             | one caldera still seems like _plenty_ of reason to fund
             | figuring that out ASAP, though. Clayton Valley is like 6 Mt
             | LCE; at this stage of the process, they were suggesting 1.3
             | Mt LCE at 900 ppm, on a feasibility target of 400 ppm. That
             | was good enough for $700M in funding.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Yes, Thacker Pass has been a known resource for a while
               | and Lithium America is one of the most promising lithium
               | mines in the US. I have even invested a small amount in
               | them years ago.
               | 
               | My point is just that the additional found reserves don't
               | change the situation all that much. Granted if they can
               | find more location along this crater that has the same
               | characteristics it could be simpler to replicate the mine
               | and processing.
        
               | defrost wrote:
               | In reseource development flow Jindalee's project is
               | currently midway beteen _Final Technical Report_ (where
               | mining engineers produce a resource estimate of shapes,
               | volumes, and densities) and _Economic Feasibility Report_
               | (where production engineers sketch out one or several
               | methods to get material out cheaper than the market value
               | of the material)
               | 
               | See: _Preferred Lithium Extraction Process for McDermitt
               | Project_ (24th March 2023)
               | 
               | https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230324/pdf/45mz
               | rdq...
               | 
               | It's part of the listing standards on mineral exchanges
               | (such as the Canadian TSX, the Australian ASX, etc) that
               | various levels of reports at various levels of accuracy
               | be filed by independant third party mineral engineers.
               | 
               | The fascicle published above is a brief four pager
               | outlining to investors where on track they are for now -
               | expect within 12 months or so a meaty 400+ technical
               | report rehasing the work that has gone into estimation
               | and additional work outling scaled up extraction plans ..
               | closely followed by an IPO | Prospectus to raise money
               | for capital plant equipment for the project and potential
               | spawning of a new sub company and listing.
        
           | jddj wrote:
           | Nothing really beats good spodumene yet, and even that's
           | pretty hard to get right at the mining stage, let alone at
           | the refinement.
           | 
           | Traditional brines are fine but need scale and time and still
           | a surprising amount of process tuning.
           | 
           | Clays, lepidolite and alternative brine methods (DLE.
           | Extractive beads, etc) are efficient media for extracting
           | money from the public markets but that's about all.
        
             | tbruckner wrote:
             | If that is the only efficient method for lithium
             | extraction, is it fair to say that accessible lithium is
             | not as abundant as people typically say?
        
         | roenxi wrote:
         | Also it is likely that, because of environmental regulations,
         | it is not possible to mine the lithium economically. I haven't
         | kept up, but the lack of lithium production in the US suggests
         | that there are regulatory factors at play.
         | 
         | Although apparently Australia is a big lithium producer so it
         | must be possible to do in an environmentally conscious way. Or
         | Australia's lithium mines have managed to fly under the radar
         | of the environmentalists. It looks like Australia's lithium
         | deposits are unusual being hard rock deposits, and we have it
         | processed in China because I assume that part of the process is
         | illegal in Australia.
        
           | sherry-sherry wrote:
           | > it must be possible to do in an environmentally conscious
           | way. Or Australia's lithium mines have managed to fly under
           | the radar of the environmentalists
           | 
           | Sadly, both don't seem to be true. Australia's lithium mining
           | has a higher carbon footprint than others (3.4): https://www.
           | sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134492...
           | 
           | We has some of the highest CO2 emissions per capita, so it's
           | not much of a surprise we are doing this inefficiently too.
        
           | EdwardDiego wrote:
           | > Also it is likely that, because of environmental
           | regulations, it is not possible to mine the lithium
           | economically. I haven't kept up, but the lack of lithium
           | production in the US suggests that there are regulatory
           | factors at play.
           | 
           | That's a large assumption to make without any investigation.
        
             | roenxi wrote:
             | It would be. But I've made a lot of investigations.
        
               | dtgriscom wrote:
               | {citation needed}
        
               | roenxi wrote:
               | I've done modelling work for mine planning projects when
               | people were deciding where to put a mine. Quite a lot of
               | it.
               | 
               | Lithium has been a trendy commodity for years. If the US
               | doesn't have a lot of active lithium mines - which it
               | does not - it is going to be because of legislative
               | impediments. Probably environmental ones. There aren't a
               | lot of other reasons. It is common for environmental
               | restrictions as the root cause of mines not being
               | started, particularly in lithium from what I gathered.
               | 
               | You're not going to get a citation, this is literally
               | just stuff I happened to know quite well a few years ago.
        
         | peytoncasper wrote:
         | How is this different from oil?
         | 
         | The vast majority of new deposits are leveraging different
         | technology to enrich yields or extract it from challenging
         | environments. Seems like a common problem for resource
         | extraction that gets solved with time and investment.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Its not that different from oil. Oil has the same different
           | from different sources requiring different refining. But oil
           | is an industry is about 100-1000x bigger. Lithium until just
           | a few years ago was a absolutely tiny industry.
           | 
           | So in oil its very worth it to build the right refining
           | capacity for large resources and there are tons and tons of
           | experienced people to do those things.
        
           | Turskarama wrote:
           | One of the biggest differences is that oil is all _primarily_
           | the same stuff and the difficulty is pulling out impurities.
           | This means it can be quite cost effective to ship it where it
           | needs to go to be processed. Crude oil is considered sour for
           | example if it contains 1-2% sulfur. Ores on the other hand
           | are usually mostly not the actual mineral you're looking for,
           | and you're lucky if you're hitting double digit percentage
           | concentrations, Lithium being "high concentration" if you're
           | reaching 6%. This means that you ideally need to be doing
           | most of (and usually all) of the processing at or very near
           | the mine. One of the only minerals we regularly ship raw ore
           | of is iron, since it tends to be in relatively high
           | concentrations. Some Lithium mines might ship some ore but
           | this is usually only done as an initial source of revenue
           | while the processing is being built.
           | 
           | The end result of this is that it's harder to take advantage
           | of economies of scale where you can have a handful of
           | processing facilities working on a very specific type of ore.
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | So all of that Australian lithium being shipped off to
             | China, is it being mostly processed in Australia first, or
             | is most of the processing done in China, or something half
             | half?
             | 
             | The main reason America develops great oil tech and not
             | lithium tech vs China is that the USA has lots of oil,
             | while China doesn't.
        
               | Turskarama wrote:
               | A lot of it is sent as partially processed ore, but two
               | major reasons for that are: 1) a lot of these mines are
               | very new and 2) Australia in particular is _very bad_ at
               | secondary industries. We have a long history of just
               | sending our minerals and raw food ingredients overseas to
               | be processed and are lacking in expertise.
               | 
               | Here is a recent article about this:
               | 
               | https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/23/business/australia-
               | lithiu...
        
         | benreesman wrote:
         | At some price it'll get figured out.
         | 
         | I'm a bit on the fence about whether Zeihan is a crank or a
         | prophet (and there doesn't seem to be much middle ground), but
         | serious people pay green money to have him speak. If he's
         | right, the difference between "expensive lithium even
         | amortized" and "unreliable lithium at best even if someone has
         | a gun to your head" is existential.
        
           | stevenally wrote:
           | Those who can't get lithium will just use oil. Which will be
           | cheap if electrification happens.
        
             | rini17 wrote:
             | Oil is cheap due to economies of scale. There's
             | unimaginably vast suply chain. When that starts to unravel,
             | it might get cheaper but only temporarily.
        
         | weinzierl wrote:
         | Next time in the news: _" Huge silicon dioxide discovery in the
         | desert could end semiconductor shortage soon."_
        
         | isykt wrote:
         | If the expertise is to be developed, is it better for the US to
         | develop it on their own deposits, or on the deposits of a
         | competing nation?
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | It depends on when you need those things. A new discovery
           | will take 10 year minimum before it can be ready, more likely
           | 20. So discoveries like this aren't gone do anything.
           | 
           | There are some domestic companies further along in the
           | process. But existing sources like South American brine and
           | Australian hard rock will continue to be a huge part of the
           | market.
           | 
           | The US companies that originally mined in North Carolina are
           | still around on the processing side.
           | 
           | So its not really clear if having the mining domestically
           | makes much of a difference. China is refining mostly things
           | from Australia.
           | 
           | Tesla is setting up a huge lithium refining factory on US
           | soil but most of the material won't be mined in the US.
        
             | isykt wrote:
             | Is the market for lithium going to collapse in 10 years?
             | I'm confused why something taking 10 years is a problem.
        
         | oneTbrain23 wrote:
         | USA lacks workers in those fields. So the problem is really
         | "how to discover new twchnical expertise labor" to extract
         | those lithium. It is same thing with solar and now silicon
         | chips in USA.
        
           | iancmceachern wrote:
           | Not really, we actually train many of the world's mining and
           | petroleum experts. Many of the people around the world that
           | do this stuff were trained at the various "A&M" or "...School
           | of Mines".
           | 
           | The issue is that much of the work ends up being overseas or
           | all over the world. If you go to any mine site in the world,
           | I guarantee you will find American trained
           | Mining/Geophysics/etc engineers
           | 
           | Source - I went to the Colorado School of Mines and most of
           | my friends and acquaintances from school work in those 2
           | industries.
        
             | defrost wrote:
             | Sure .. alongside Scots, Russians, South Africans,
             | Australians, Norwegians, and all the _other_ non US mining
             | engineers.
             | 
             | The Canadian TSX is the global centre for listed public
             | mining, Anglo-Australian mining companies dominate there.
             | 
             | No one is going to deny the Colorado School of mines their
             | little corner of the pie but they haven't hit "much of" in
             | a clear majority sense by a long shot.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | Agreed. I was never trying to say it's the whole pie. I'm
               | replying to a parent comment that implies the US has a
               | big deficit in this kind of skill and training, which
               | isn't accurate.
        
           | photonbeam wrote:
           | Isn't the problem always that wages for skill is too low, so
           | too few people know it
        
             | Negitivefrags wrote:
             | No, this isn't always the problem.
             | 
             | People are not fungible resources. You can't simply turn a
             | programmer from Google into a Lithium miner by paying more.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | The expertise China has built up is only around 20 years
               | old, so it's not like we couldn't develop it in 20 years.
               | Doing so in a free market way that isn't undercut by
               | Chinese suppliers, however, would be tricky (so some non
               | free market mechanism is needed).
        
               | chii wrote:
               | > so it's not like we couldn't develop it in 20 years.
               | 
               | 20 yrs is a very long time.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | It's not really that long, but I guess it depends on how
               | old you are (perception of passing time speeds up rapidly
               | after 40).
        
           | tw04 wrote:
           | ^^Spot on, which is why "subsidizing" renewables is vital to
           | our country's future. All the folks losing their minds are
           | being short-sighted. While I agree in principle that the
           | organizations should be paying their employees more, there's
           | also the reality that China HEAVILY subsidizes their
           | renewables AND has a lower base pay rate. Only one way to
           | compete with that.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | Lithium isn't 'renewable'.
             | 
             | And just 'subsidizing' things isn't a replacement for
             | actually playing your energy grid and energy production.
        
               | gibolt wrote:
               | Oil is 100% non-renewable. A single, relatively efficient
               | ICE vehicle will use over 45,000 lbs of gasoline over its
               | lifetime (excluding all the oil to extract, refine, and
               | transport that gasoline).
               | 
               | The entire oil supply chain has no chance of ever
               | becoming sustainable.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | So is lithium
               | 
               | Since I'm being down voted, I'm adding a reference:
               | 
               | 5% of lithium batteries are currently recycled
               | https://www.cas.org/resources/cas-
               | insights/sustainability/li....
               | 
               | So, not renewable
        
               | somewhat_drunk wrote:
               | I can't tell if you actually believe your logic is sound
               | or you're just trolling.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | A bit of both. I'm trying to say that it's not so cut and
               | dry. Making lithium batteries and thr mining of lithium
               | is a messy business. It's not a panacea. We need to be
               | honest and realistic about the costs of doing that
               | business, and often we arent.
               | 
               | 75% of all aluminum every smelted is still in use today: 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_recycling#:~:te
               | xt=....
               | 
               | We need to get lithium to that level before we make any
               | more big, environmentally hazardous mines.
        
               | zaroth wrote:
               | A chokehold on new mining of a crucial ore for renewables
               | sounds like a terrible overall idea.
               | 
               | The lifecycle of the lithium that will come from this
               | hypothetical mine is probably 20 _years_ from now until
               | the _first_ time the material will be recycled.
               | 
               | The highly profitable recycling logistics will have been
               | fully worked out a decade before it's needed for a new
               | mine's output.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | This is reducto ad absurdum. I'm not proposing that.
               | 
               | I'm proposing we put equal effort into both. My
               | expectation is that we don't currently.
               | 
               | 75% of all aluminum ever made is still in use. We should
               | be able to do that with lithium too.
        
               | zaroth wrote:
               | I was responding to when you said "before we make any
               | more big, environmentally hazardous mines".
               | 
               | The recycling effort is highly profitable, there's little
               | need to subsidize it. It will simply grow and consume all
               | available supply.
               | 
               | Large scale lithium battery storage is still truly just
               | getting started. We need to be super smart with lining up
               | supply for essential inputs for growth.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | Then why hasn't it been keeping up? It seems that lithium
               | recycling is way behind exploration and mining. Why? It's
               | highly profitable as you say, are there technology
               | limitations?
        
               | gibolt wrote:
               | While the 5% number may be presently accurate, it is
               | mainly for tiny Lithium batteries. Those from vehicles
               | are of very large + high value, and will likely end up
               | well above 95% recycling rate whenever it is time for
               | them to be scrapped.
               | 
               | This also ignores the large number of those batteries
               | that will be re-used in grid storage after being removed
               | from a car, and eventually recycled.
        
               | scythe wrote:
               | >Since I'm being down voted, I'm adding a reference:
               | 
               | >5% of lithium batteries are currently recycled
               | 
               | Whether something is currently recycled and whether it
               | can be recycled are two different questions. For a long
               | time, copper wasn't recycled very often. Then the price
               | went up, and now it's very valuable trash.
               | 
               | Lithium is absolutely renewable. It may not be renewed,
               | but it is renewable.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | Agreed.
               | 
               | Let's put more effort into getting that 5% up to 100%,
               | that's where the real effort and headlines should focus.
               | 
               | 75% of all aluminum ever produced is still in use today: 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_recycling#:~:te
               | xt=....
               | 
               | We need to get lithium to that level
        
               | gibolt wrote:
               | As the value goes up, companies that sort trash and
               | recycling will be incentivized to separate the
               | electronics, and claim the value as an extra revenue
               | stream.
        
               | hollerith wrote:
               | Not true: we might learn to pull carbon from the
               | atmosphere and turn it into gasoline so that instead of
               | using solar and wind energy to charge electric cars, we
               | use to make gasoline for ICE cars.
        
               | danans wrote:
               | Making gasoline for cars from renewable energy isn't
               | going to happen. The end to end efficiency of that
               | process (Hydrolysis, CO2 capture, Fischer Tropf) would
               | likely measure in the single digit percentages. Charging
               | a car battery (especially from local solar) can be over
               | 90% efficient.
               | 
               | When you include the very low tank to wheels efficiency
               | of an ICE vehicle, the overall efficiency is even worse.
        
               | kelnos wrote:
               | I'm having trouble seeing how it'd be feasible to do all
               | that while expending less energy than you can get out of
               | the resulting gasoline.
               | 
               | But we demonstrably get more energy out of the useful
               | life of a solar panel than we have to put in to
               | manufacture it.
        
               | matkoniecz wrote:
               | > I'm having trouble seeing how it'd be feasible to do
               | all that while expending less energy than you can get out
               | of the resulting gasoline.
               | 
               | Use biological solar panels AKA plants.
        
               | eru wrote:
               | Producing synthetic fuels for internal combustion engines
               | doesn't really makes sense for cars: electric cars are
               | good enough.
               | 
               | But it might be necessary for 'green' planes, if the
               | energy density of electric batteries does not improve
               | enough.
        
               | gibolt wrote:
               | Electric cars are _better_. Less moving parts
               | /maintenance, quicker, 3x as efficient, can be charged
               | nearly anywhere with existing infrastructure and no
               | ongoing supply chain requirement (fuel delivery).
               | 
               | Energy density is steadily increasing. Hydrogen will be a
               | short-term solution for medium/long haul flights, but
               | will eventually be replaced by batteries.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | smsm42 wrote:
               | This technology already exists.
               | 
               | Step 1: grow trees (or any other plants, in fact)
               | 
               | Step 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_gas_generator
               | 
               | Not the most clean or efficient technology, to be sure,
               | but has been around for almost 100 years now (the second
               | part, the first part a bit longer).
        
               | hollerith wrote:
               | Yeah, I meant figuring out how to do it so efficiently
               | that it becomes preferable to batteries for powering
               | cars. We talk like it is certain that battery-powered
               | cars will win out, but I haven't seen a proof that that
               | is how it must turns out if we learn to create
               | nanomachines that use solar energy to suck carbon from
               | air.
        
               | gibolt wrote:
               | Unfortunately, physics says battery-powered cars _have_
               | won.
               | 
               | Using solar to power a process to make a fuel before
               | burning a fuel that at best (way less in reality) uses 2x
               | more energy than just powering an electric motor directly
               | is not sensical.
        
               | hollerith wrote:
               | And the battery makes the car 1.3 times the weight of a
               | gas-powered car. Making the battery requires much more
               | energy than making a gas tank. The charging
               | infrastructure might prove more expensive than a network
               | of gas stations. Long trips are punctuated by idle
               | periods needed for the battery to charge, so the car's
               | "utilization rate" is lower than a gas-powered car. All I
               | am saying is that it is not 1.00 certain which technology
               | will retain the lowest total cost of ownership as both
               | technologies improve: battery tech is more likely to win,
               | but not certain to win.
        
               | scythe wrote:
               | That isn't really "renewing", though. If part of the
               | process involves the substance being dispersed in the
               | environment and then extracted again, that's different
               | from capturing waste as it's produced. Furthermore,
               | you're not necessarily capturing the same carbon dioxide
               | that you released, but when you recycle a battery, it's
               | the same lithium. And getting the lithium from a battery
               | should take less energy than mining it, while capturing
               | and reducing carbon dioxide definitely requires more
               | energy than pumping oil from the ground.
               | 
               | So I don't think this analogy holds up.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Lithium isn 't 'renewable'_
               | 
               | Neither are photons [1] nor individual gusts of wind.
               | Lithium has a theoretically closeable cycle in batteries
               | in a way fossil fuels do not.
               | 
               | [1] If you want to be pedantic, the useful energy in a
               | particular photon.
        
               | gibolt wrote:
               | Exactly. Batteries are being recycled at scale today with
               | 98-95% material recovery rates, depending on the company.
               | 
               | We are still early in the development cycle of recycling
               | technology, which means we'll be closer to 99.x% in a
               | decade when the first large wave of EV batteries (from
               | the last decade) could start getting close to End of
               | Life.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Batteries can be recycled at high rates of recovery, but
               | most non-EV lithium batteries aren't being recycled
               | (basically because they aren't sent to battery recycling
               | centers given their small sizes). The anti-EV crowd then
               | uses that statistic to deride EVS.
        
               | r00fus wrote:
               | But the value of nickel in say a NiMH battery makes it
               | feasible to reclaim/"recycle"
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Most small batteries are sent to landfills, whether they
               | have lithium or nickel. EV batteries and nickel car
               | batteries are easier to recycle because there is an auto
               | shop involved to collect and send the battery to a
               | recycler. If you replace your NiMH 12V battery yourself
               | (rather than having it done in the shop), you might be
               | tempted to just throw it away in your garbage can also
               | (even though you shouldn't) simply because you have no
               | idea how to get it to a recycler. You are unlikely to
               | change the big battery in your Tesla on your own, so that
               | isn't a problem.
               | 
               | Battery recycling is really just a logistics problem.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Battery recycling is really just a logistics problem_
               | 
               | It's also one of scale. We don't yet have enough EV
               | batteries being retired to merit the recycling
               | infrastructure. China is _just_ reaching the point where
               | it does.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Most EV batteries that age out of car use can be
               | repurposed for home/solar, so this is true. But they will
               | eventually need to be recycled.
        
               | barkingcat wrote:
               | In Canada at least, when you buy a car / ev battery
               | depending on the chemistry you get a coupon that you
               | redeem for a significant amount of money when you take
               | your old replaced battery back to the place you bought
               | the new battery. The vendor will take back any
               | brand/regardless of where you got the old battery from.
               | 
               | There are people who "throw away" the coupon by not
               | returning the old battery, but hey that's on them.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | It is incredibly profitable to recycle an EV battery, so
               | I'm not sure why the coupon is needed. The owner should
               | get cash or a discount on their new battery.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | My reaction was not pro-fossil fuel but rather that I
               | think the use of 'renewable' as a statement of general
               | positivity is idiotic.
               | 
               | Sure there is a theoretical closable cycle in batteries,
               | but guess what, the same can be said for fossil fuels.
               | Just use energy to turn air and water back into fuel,
               | boom cycle closed.
               | 
               | What matters is not if something is 'renewable' but if
               | its a strategically correct thing to do in regards to
               | climate and energy security.
               | 
               | Calling lithium 'renwable' is ridiculous. Its literally
               | just a fixed resource on our plant like iron or copper or
               | whatever.
        
               | unethical_ban wrote:
               | Besides brushing off the difference in difficulty between
               | refreshing our petroleum stock on the planet and
               | recycling lithium, I think the point of the original use
               | of "renewables" is the push toward renewable energy for
               | all possible things, such as transport, and the part
               | lithium currently plays in that plan.
        
               | adrienthebo wrote:
               | > Sure there is a theoretical closable cycle in
               | batteries, but guess what, the same can be said for
               | fossil fuels.
               | 
               | On geological time scales involving massive deposition of
               | organic material.
               | 
               | In contrast, lithium can be recovered from batteries with
               | an industrial shredder and chemical processing.
               | 
               | Fossil fuels are non-renewable in a trivial sense but are
               | grossly different in a practical sense; treating them as
               | equivalent is a borderline specious argument.
        
               | tw04 wrote:
               | >Lithium isn't 'renewable'.
               | 
               | Sure, if you want to be painfully pedantic. If you want
               | to have a real conversation, lithium batteries are
               | absolutely "renewable" in the sense they can be recycled,
               | and some studies have shown that they actually perform
               | better after being recycled.
               | 
               | https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/
               | 
               | https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/recycled-
               | lithium-...
        
             | raincole wrote:
             | You may say China is subsidizing their lithium industry.
             | Actually, by exporting cheap lithium, they're effectively
             | subsidizing all the other countries' economy, regardless of
             | whether they like it or not.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | When standard oil used dumping tactics it was with the
               | expectation that they would be able to clean up the
               | market later, and they at least, were right.
        
             | eru wrote:
             | > ^^Spot on, which is why "subsidizing" renewables is vital
             | to our country's future.
             | 
             | That seems like a silly conclusion. It might still be vital
             | for your country's future to subsidise renewables, but it
             | doesn't follow from the observation.
             | 
             | If China wants to spend taxpayer money to give foreigners
             | cheaper renewables (or cheaper anything), that's nice of
             | them, but doesn't mean anyone should imitate them.
             | 
             | If you have insufficient local workers for a task, and you
             | are the US, you can always open the floodgates of (skilled)
             | migration.
             | 
             | Also you don't need to subsidize renewables. That's a sore
             | game of trying to pick winners and introducing extra
             | bureaucracy. Instead you can hit the same policy goals
             | simpler by taxing fossil fuels (or carbon emissions).
             | Distribute the proceeds amongst all voters, if you want it
             | to be revenue neutral.
             | 
             | With a tax, someone can react by just driving less (eg by
             | moving closer to work) and benefiting from that choice.
             | With a subsidy, you'd actively have to go and buy eg a
             | subsidised electric car to benefit.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | The world lacks workers in those fields.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | dietr1ch wrote:
         | I'd be surprised if the US cannot build the industry necessary
         | for it, and even if that were the case, it seems that they
         | could export ~raw lithium, and then buy it processed, or as
         | batteries if needed meanwhile they figure things out, as the US
         | doesn't really want to keep China owning critical production
         | lines for the technology that's coming in the next 20+ years.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Here is the thing. Its not about what can happen in 20+
           | years. Of course the US can do whatever it want's in 20 years
           | with enough money. In 20 years lot of things will be very
           | different.
           | 
           | But again, there was already plenty of lithium in the US,
           | this discovery changes nothing. The US already has competent
           | lithium companies.
           | 
           | The US already has good relationship with South America and
           | Australia where the resources are coming from. But currently
           | 90%+ of refining is in China.
           | 
           | Controlling the 'raw' resources is mostly uninteresting in
           | this case.
        
             | bettercallsalad wrote:
             | > Of course the US can do whatever it want's in 20 years
             | with enough money.
             | 
             | Are we sure US can anymore? Last I checked we couldn't
             | build a high speed rail despite spending billions of
             | dollars and lots of time. I would not be so optimistic.
             | Even for things as crucial as defense supply chain we can't
             | seem to figure out how to build things at scale.
        
               | nickserv wrote:
               | Building high speed rail is complicated because of land
               | rights, the US is not China where the government can just
               | order people off large swathes of land as needed.
               | 
               | Lithium mining is more like the shale oil boom, when the
               | US went from an net importer to a net exporter of fossil
               | fuels, environmental damage be damned.
               | 
               | When it's for private industry's profit, the US is quite
               | competent at eliminating any oversight of environmental
               | and societal concerns.
        
               | megaman821 wrote:
               | Shouldn't we be seeing wide-scale, obvious signs of
               | environment destruction consider how many barrels a day
               | the US produces? Maybe it is not covered well by the
               | news, but do you have any sources for major environmental
               | destruction?
        
             | iancmceachern wrote:
             | It's very similar to aluminum in this way. Aluminum mining
             | is very different than many other minerals and metals. It's
             | basically a processing thing. It's all about where you can
             | get the resources to do the refining, not where the ore is.
             | In the case of Aluminum its electricity. They call aluminum
             | solidified electricity for a reason. That's why the biggest
             | aluminum smelters in the world are where electricity is
             | cheap.
             | 
             | Same here, it's not like there is big chunks of Lithium
             | just waiting to be picked up. It's a small percentage of
             | dirt, and you need to process huge amounts of that dirt to
             | extract it. That processing takes resources. Those
             | resources are the limiting factor, not the raw ore. In the
             | case of aluminum its electricity. In the case of lithium I
             | gather it's also energy (to do the heating) and sulfuric
             | acid, and the associated containment snd cleanup of such.
             | 
             | Source: "After the ore is mined, it is crushed and roasted
             | at 2012degF (1100degC). It is then cooled to 140degF
             | (65degC), milled and roasted again, this time with sulfuric
             | acid, at 482degF (250degC), a process known as acid
             | leaching."
             | 
             | https://www.sttsystems.com/industries/lithium-
             | extraction/#:~....
        
               | reacharavindh wrote:
               | Interesting to hear about refining of Aluminium. It is a
               | very useful metal, and if it is electricity intensive to
               | define, I wonder if it would fit the use of excess
               | renewable electricity. A lot of times, UK has excess wind
               | power than they can pass on to any grids that they idle
               | the windmills. Same with countries like Morocco that gets
               | a lot of sun, but not enough transmission lines to push
               | them into(for a lot of geo political reasons, building
               | out transmission lines seem to be a lot complicated).
               | 
               | If it could be as simple as "we produced this much
               | aluminium from all the excess energy we had last summer!
               | Go use it in residential construction, shelters, tools,
               | whatever, heck even mounts for further more solar panels"
        
               | ateng wrote:
               | Even if you ignore the difficulties of start / stop the
               | factories and imagine we have a new manufacturing process
               | that can be restarted immediately, having idle factories
               | and employees sitting around doing nothing for half a day
               | would be a huge money sink
        
               | NavinF wrote:
               | No way, you can't run a factory for 1 hours a day.
               | Aluminum is only "solidified electricity" under normal
               | circumstances. Not when capex is 24x because the normal
               | price of electricity in the UK for most of the day is ~7x
               | what you'd pay in Texas (which isn't even that cheap
               | globally)
        
               | ElFitz wrote:
               | I recall a big part of Iceland's economy is processing
               | aluminium. Basically producing as much as, if not more
               | than, the US.
               | 
               | https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/01/us/politics/american-
               | comp...
        
               | Gibbon1 wrote:
               | Not Aluminum. However iron can be reduced in a low
               | temperature aqueous cell. I can't think of why that
               | couldn't be done intermittently. Takes about 3-4kwh per
               | kg of iron produced. That probably works out to
               | $150-250/ton.
               | 
               | You can also run electric furnaces intermittently because
               | they are inherently a batch process.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | You can also make iron by direct reduction with hydrogen.
               | IIUC, this is actually more energy efficient (with green
               | hydrogen) than direct electrolytic reduction. And
               | electrolysers for hydrogen are getting cheap enough that
               | running them intermittently will make sense.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | Most aluminum for European countries comes from recycled
               | sources. It's way less energy to just smelt old soda
               | cans.
               | 
               | About 75% of all aluminum ever produced is currently is
               | use, because we're so good at recycling it.
               | 
               | We need to get lithium from 5 to 75%
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_recycling#:~:te
               | xt=....
        
               | safety1st wrote:
               | Well if we're comparing the recycling of old soda cans to
               | lithium batteries... I had to throw a few old phones away
               | recently. I Googled and found a mobile phone store near
               | me that accepted e-waste for free, so I went a bit out of
               | my way and took the phones there. I was not, however,
               | given a bit of cash for every phone I returned..!
        
               | gorlilla wrote:
               | Soda can deposits are far from universal an do not result
               | in free money... they simply refund the deposit that was
               | paid up.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | But they do make sure more bottles amd cans get recycled.
               | In practice it creates a whole ecosystem of people
               | collecting amd cashing them in. If we didn't have the
               | deposit, the government would have to pay for that
               | cleanup
        
               | kwhitefoot wrote:
               | Batteries in Norway have a very high recycling rate and
               | large batteries like car starter batteries attract a
               | specific tax (miljo gebyr, environment charge) that
               | assists in funding the recycling operations. Everyone who
               | sells batteries has to be a member of an approved
               | recycling group and be willing to accept for recycling
               | batteries of the same general type even if they did not
               | sell them. So you can dump your old phone batteries in a
               | box at any supermarket.
        
               | eru wrote:
               | > We need to get lithium from 5 to 75%
               | 
               | As long as you store your old batteries (and other
               | lithium containing gadgets), I shouldn't make too much of
               | a difference if you recycle them now or in ten years?
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | Where and how do we store them safely?
               | 
               | In landfills?
               | 
               | This brings up an aside I've been wondering about for
               | years, when are we going to start mining our old
               | landfills?
        
               | KingMob wrote:
               | We just need more people to accidentally toss their
               | bitcoin keys in the trash!
               | https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/15/uk/bitcoin-trash-
               | landfill...
        
               | youngtaff wrote:
               | When I was a kid there was an aluminium smelter in
               | Anglesey, North Wales that ran off the base load of the
               | local nuclear power station
        
               | johncalvinyoung wrote:
               | Most industries that deal in refining or other heat-
               | intensive processes are nearly hard to impossible to
               | pause or stop. My understanding is that glassmaking
               | plants, for instance, will literally solidify if they
               | ever stop operation--making it an extremely rare
               | occurrence. I wouldn't be surprised if aluminum refining
               | is the same way--fighting entropy keeping things hot is a
               | losing battle, so not very dispatchable.
        
               | speed_spread wrote:
               | I confirm that an aluminium refinery is not something you
               | stop lightly. I remember something about taking two weeks
               | to restart? Maybe more. Source, had family working at a
               | large northern plant.
        
               | Filligree wrote:
               | Being able to restart it at all makes it better than a
               | lot of industries. Many of these liquid-metal affairs
               | depend on convection and inertia to keep the metal
               | molten, and if it solidifies inside a pipe--well, then
               | you don't have a pipe anymore; you have a bimetal pole.
               | 
               | Or ceramic cladding for an iron pole, depending.
               | 
               | Either way it's a rebuild, not a restart.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | Totally, like magnetic induction pumps that pump molten
               | iron, once the iron solidifies its a composite tube.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | That is true about float glass plants but for a
               | different, very interesting reason.
               | 
               | Float glass plants work by literally floating a thin
               | sheet of molten glass on top of a giant tank of liquid
               | tin. They have a swimming pool of liquid tin, float
               | molten glass on top, and then push it along the tank
               | length wise.
               | 
               | The glass and tin is then gradually cooled until the
               | glass is solidified. It's then cut into pieces, cooled
               | and stacked.
               | 
               | If the thing suddenly stops, or there is a hiccup of some
               | kind, the thermal expansion of the glass, along with its
               | extreme hardness (lack if strength) it will just shatter
               | the whole mile long sheet of glass. My understanding is
               | that it takes the better part of a year to recover from
               | something like this.
               | 
               | In aluminum, its basically electroplating. They basically
               | electroplate the aluminum out of the ore onto the ingots.
               | My understanding is that takes a few weeks to a month to
               | recover from a similar incident.
        
               | jskrablin wrote:
               | Glass melting furnace never stops after it's started. If
               | it cools down it's basically destroyed so yeah, they run
               | uninterrupted for years. Any maintenance or fixes need to
               | account for that.
        
               | Mistletoe wrote:
               | How do they account for power outages? Huge generators?
               | Or is it gas fired?
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | From what I've read its gas
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | There are electrically heated glass furnaces. They work
               | by immersing electrodes in the molten glass, which is
               | electrically conductive, if somewhat resistive. I imagine
               | they could use gas for startup though. The use I saw for
               | this was in making fiberglass from recycled glass cullet.
        
               | eru wrote:
               | If I remember right, you can stop the electricity to an
               | aluminum smelting plant. But only for a while.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Right. The wall has to continue to be cooled -- if it
               | reaches the temperature of the melt, it's ruined -- so
               | there's always some heat loss. And if the electrolyte
               | freezes you're also in trouble.
        
               | lostboomerang wrote:
               | You're not thinking big enough.
               | 
               | Have a read about the
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akosombo_Dam
               | 
               | Then watch this documentary on the devastating effects: h
               | ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandora%27s_Box_(British_TV_
               | se...
               | 
               | As Wikipedia says about the dam:
               | 
               | "The Ghana government was compelled, by contract, to pay
               | for over 50% of the cost of Akosombo's construction, but
               | the country was allowed only 20% of the power generated."
        
               | codethief wrote:
               | Having been to Ghana and to Lake Volta & the Akosombo dam
               | in particular, I'm somewhat torn:
               | 
               | - Yes, it has had a severe impact on the ecosystem, and
               | also on agriculture.
               | 
               | - Yes, Ghana itself only gets about 20% of the power
               | generated by the dam (or apparently a bit more in recent
               | times).
               | 
               | - OTOH, the dam gives Ghana access to at least _some_
               | power - much more in fact than what 's available to any
               | of its neighboring countries. I have heard people say
               | that this is one of the major reasons for Ghana's
               | relative economic & political stability.
        
               | qball wrote:
               | >It is a very useful metal, and if it is electricity
               | intensive to define, I wonder if it would fit the use of
               | excess renewable electricity.
               | 
               | No, absolutely not. Aluminum refining, like all
               | industrial processes at scale, takes a long time to get
               | going and needs to run (hence be fed electricity)
               | continuously, not just whenever the wind feels like
               | blowing.
               | 
               | While it is an excellent business opportunity for
               | electricity that is cheap _because_ it is renewable- and
               | why Canada produces more refined aluminum than any other
               | Western country thanks to its electric generation being
               | overwhelmingly renewable for the entire time it 's even
               | _had_ a grid- it 's not something you can turn on and off
               | whenever you want and not a good candidate to burn off
               | excess power ("just not using as much naturally-pumped
               | stored power" is not an "excess" of power by definition).
        
               | theptip wrote:
               | If you have a predictable pricing regime can you vary the
               | power load on a diurnal cycle? Say, drawing more at noon
               | and less at 7pm each day? If so it could still be useful
               | to shape the demand curve (ie use power when solar is
               | cheapest so that meeting the evening peak doesn't require
               | as much overprovisioning) even though this doesn't help
               | with inter-day variability of supply.
               | 
               | The problem I've always seen with this sort of plan is
               | that the refinery is extremely expensive and so you don't
               | want it idle; it's cheaper to overbuild solar than to
               | turn off your refinery for 25% of the day. But interested
               | if this applies here, maybe the energy-intensive bits can
               | be made cheaply?
        
               | EricE wrote:
               | These kinds of refineries take *weeks* to start up. There
               | is no idle. Period.
        
               | dtech wrote:
               | How large is the tolerance though? Would it be feasible
               | to heat things up a little more from say 9:00 - 17:00 and
               | using more electricity so that you don't need to heat (as
               | much) during peak demand-supply imbalance? Even a couple
               | of hours can help with the duck curve.
        
               | scrlk wrote:
               | Looks like aluminium smelter demand flexibility is
               | already in use, but it doesn't rely on process
               | temperature variation:
               | 
               | https://enpot.com/
               | 
               | https://aluminiuminsider.com/trimet-aluminium-betting-
               | enpots...
        
               | theptip wrote:
               | Interesting, thanks!
               | 
               | > The "virtual battery" concept relies on installing
               | adjustable heat exchangers that can maintain the energy
               | balance in each electrolysis cell irrespective of
               | shifting power inputs. Since aluminium production
               | requires a constant energy supply, any fluctuation could
               | have heavy consequences for the molten metal. The
               | technology also ensures that grid power fluctuations do
               | not affect the magnetic fields in the electrolysis cells.
               | 
               | This seems to be solving the even-harder problem of
               | handling on-demand/dynamic fluctuations rather than
               | planning for a diurnal cycle. I wonder if there is scope
               | to use a heat reservoir (molten salt or similar) as a
               | buffer for these sorts of process; basically if you need
               | to dump heat into a process perhaps you can shift the
               | heat production but leave the process itself unchanged.
               | 
               | Amusingly I was reading the wrong Wikipedia last night
               | and it's mentioned right there too:
               | 
               | > Particularly in Australia these smelters are used to
               | control electrical network demand, and as a result power
               | is supplied to the smelter at a very low price. However
               | power must not be interrupted for more than 4-5 hours,
               | since the pots have to be repaired at significant cost if
               | the liquid metal solidifies.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_smelting
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | Here are some pdfs:
               | 
               | How it works: https://enpot.com/assets/pdfs/enpot-how-it-
               | works.pdf
               | 
               | Energy modulation: https://enpot.com/assets/pdfs/Enpot-
               | Energy-Modulation-of-Alu...
               | 
               | First was operational since 2019. If you push past the
               | "virtual battery" marketing nonsense, a summary of the
               | tech is... they modulate the cooling fans for closed loop
               | thermal regulation, regardless of processing rate (+/-
               | 20% long, 30% short term).
               | 
               | Talk about low hanging fruit.
        
               | theptip wrote:
               | This is particularly interesting to me because we
               | currently have some unanswered questions about how viable
               | renewable energy is for ~100% of generation.
               | 
               | As we get to higher total renewable contribution,
               | presumably we'd see a more dramatic price difference in
               | energy at different time of day.
               | 
               | This tech suggests to me that, as you say, there is low-
               | hanging fruit that could be harvested, and which perhaps
               | isn't cost-effective yet with a small diurnal energy
               | cost-delta, but with a higher peak-to-trough cost
               | difference might become viable to extract.
               | 
               | It's worth noting here that seasonal variations seem
               | harder to deal with, and varying the energy intensity of
               | industrial processes doesn't seem helpful for that issue
               | due to capex/utilization concerns.
               | 
               | And for diurnal fluctuations, batteries are actually not
               | too expensive these days.
        
               | ianlevesque wrote:
               | Ah, hacker news, from " No, absolutely not." to already
               | being done in 3 comments.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | To be fair, first operational in 2019. Variable speed
               | cooling fans, for heat loss regulation, are bleeding edge
               | tech, in the world of aluminum.
        
               | ianlevesque wrote:
               | I just wish people would be more open minded and curious
               | by default.
        
               | ayanon823819812 wrote:
               | They only are if they're incentivized: most ignore the
               | rewards, those you admire who don't ignore self-motivated
               | open-minded-ness and curious-ness, they must have already
               | been rewarded previously for having these traits, and so
               | they continue to express them.
        
               | magicalhippo wrote:
               | > I wonder if it would fit the use of excess renewable
               | electricity.
               | 
               | It's exactly the opposite. The pots[1] in the smelter get
               | their lifetime reduced if they have to be restarted, and
               | if restarted multiple times that can be quite
               | significant[2]. They can survive without power for a few
               | hours, but they freeze over after a day or so which leads
               | to the most damage.
               | 
               | As such they really want stable and cheap electricity,
               | like hydro.
               | 
               | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_smelting#Lay
               | out_of_a...
               | 
               | [2]: https://aluminiumtoday.com/content-
               | images/news/Oyeweb.pdf
        
               | DonHopkins wrote:
               | But don't the crypto-bros have dibs on all the excess
               | renewable energy so they can Get Rich Quick?
        
               | brendoelfrendo wrote:
               | Indeed, aluminum refining is a relatively large industry
               | in Iceland for this very reason. Geothermal energy
               | production in excess of what people need means you can
               | devote a bunch to industry cheaply. If Nordural's website
               | is to be believed, they use 25% of all electricity
               | generated in Iceland: https://nordural.is/en/
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | Efficiency for industrial chemistry is _massively_
               | dependent on the processes being continuous. The
               | processes often don't work, or work poorly, until you
               | reach a stable equilibrium, which can take many hours. An
               | enormous amount of effort is expended to ensure this in
               | real industrial processes. Otherwise, you are just
               | burning resources for negligible output.
               | 
               | The idea that we'll do industrial chemistry with
               | intermittent energy surpluses is unrealistic unless we
               | are okay with yield per unit of energy being very poor
               | relative to continuous processes.
        
               | Symbiote wrote:
               | Aluminium smelters already adjust their electricity
               | consumption throughout the day to take advantage of
               | changing power prices.
        
               | iancmceachern wrote:
               | Exactly. Chemistry can be done that way, in batches.
               | Chemical engineering cannot, it's not a batch process,
               | it's all rate stuff.
        
             | anovikov wrote:
             | It is indeed mostly uninteresting, but it is exactly what
             | naysaysers along with paid lobbyists of the oil industry
             | telling us - "you are trying to replace oil which is
             | sufficient, for lithium which is fundamentally insufficient
             | and there is nothing you can do to make it work". Glad to
             | find out for certain that this isn't true.
        
             | mark_up wrote:
             | [dead]
        
             | conradev wrote:
             | 90% of rare-earth elements, but only 60-70% of lithium and
             | cobalt (which, as said in parent, are not rare):
             | 
             | > ... with China being responsible for the refining of 90%
             | of REEs and 60-70% of lithium and cobalt.
             | 
             | https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-
             | perspectives-2...
        
             | safety1st wrote:
             | These dismissive "oh this big event that's just occurred is
             | uninteresting" comments on HN are always so weird. Like
             | just because you don't see the ramifications doesn't mean
             | they don't exist, why not keep an open mind?
             | 
             | Lithium and lithium batteries are a critical resource. If
             | the US can mine the lithium, refine it, and turn it into
             | batteries all domestically, that has big geopolitical
             | implications.
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | It's not really a question of if the US _can_ though, it
               | 's a question of _will_. Even before this finding the US
               | had known massive lithium reserves that were essentially
               | just sitting there idle. The US refining a larger chunk
               | of the market is just a question of if we want to do it
               | or continue outsourcing that. The US definitely have
               | competent people (or still has access to, convincing
               | international people to work here) able to build and
               | operate the refining side of it. There 's loads of
               | capital available to build the refineries. The US just
               | has to choose to do it.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | eru wrote:
           | It's easy to set up lithium extraction. The problem is
           | setting up commercially viable lithium extraction.
           | 
           | Yes, the US can lose lots of money building a lithium
           | industry. But what would be the point?
        
             | scottwitlin wrote:
             | This mine is owned by a company controlled by a Chinese
             | company. The US should be cautious about subsidizing
             | foreign companies who are under control of competing
             | powers.
        
             | rdevsrex wrote:
             | Sometimes it might make sense to subsidize an industry
             | that's vital to national interest the way we subsidize corn
             | and many other things.
        
       | davidw wrote:
       | I've actually driven through the "town" of McDermitt, on the
       | border. It is in the middle of f'ing nowhere. It's not terribly
       | far from one of the original "McFarthest spots" (
       | http://www.datapointed.net/2010/09/distance-to-nearest-mcdon...
       | ).
       | 
       | Some environmentalists and local native Americans aren't terribly
       | happy about the idea: https://apnews.com/article/nevada-lithium-
       | mine-court-appeal-...
       | 
       | It's actually a pretty interesting bit of country to see, because
       | it's rare for most of us to experience places that remote. A few
       | years back, when visiting Steens Mountain (highly recommended) we
       | drove the paved road from Frenchglen to the Alvord desert. We saw
       | I think 2 other cars in an hour.
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | I refuse to call these people "environmentalists" until they
         | provide a list of places they are ok with mining. What they are
         | is just glorified NIMBYs who knee jerk oppose everything.
        
           | davidw wrote:
           | Lithium is pretty important in terms of electrifying our
           | economy, which is important for the global environment and
           | climate change - and it's got to come from somewhere.
           | 
           | It's also true that mines have a huge track record of getting
           | in, digging stuff up, making money, and then leaving the mess
           | for someone else to clean up.
           | 
           | If you look at the satellite map of the area, you see the
           | former Cordero mercury mine: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.
           | 9221322,-117.8162339,7151m/d...
           | 
           | There's a whole report on it here:
           | https://response.epa.gov/site/site_profile.aspx?site_id=7029
           | 
           | > The EPA Site Assessment program conducted a Site Inspection
           | in 1988 which recommended no further action. Upon request
           | from the Fort McDermitt Pauite Shoshone Tribe, EPA Emergency
           | Response conducted an additional site visit in November 2009.
           | At that time, EPA was notified of the possibility that mine
           | waste had been used as fill at locations within the town of
           | McDermitt and on the Fort McDermitt Paiute Shoshone
           | Reservation.
           | 
           | In other words, they tried to get out of doing any cleanup.
           | Then they found that "well, actually..." there was some
           | cleanup needed.
           | 
           | So... it's probably still worth doing because of climate
           | change, but it'd sure be nice to ensure it's done right, and
           | they do right by the people who have always lived there. I
           | imagine the local tribes are also pretty wary of getting
           | screwed, because that is something that has been very much
           | par for the course throughout US history.
        
             | fallingknife wrote:
             | In that case environmentalists should be very much in favor
             | of the mine. Mining in the US is much cleaner than in most
             | other countries so mining it here is not only better for
             | our economy, but for the environment as well.
             | 
             | Your example actually is proof of this. It got cleaned up.
             | It wouldn't in most countries.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Australia (where most lithium is being mined ATM) isn't
               | so far behind on the cleanup side. They are a liberal
               | democracy after all. It isn't clear to me if they are
               | just getting off easy because they are shipping unrefined
               | lithium ore to China, however.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | These proposed lithium mines are going to be tiny though,
             | compared to other minerals. For example Thacker Pass is
             | only planning to disturb 6000 acres, which is basically
             | nothing. Every oil well in Texas is on 1 to 5 acres of
             | disturbed land and there are a quarter-million of those in
             | Texas alone. The amount of land that has been scraped flat
             | for oil is incredible.
             | 
             | https://www.google.com/maps/@28.0170789,-98.9525815,39702m/
             | d...
             | 
             | https://www.google.com/maps/@32.2481804,-102.7177912,13375m
             | /...
             | 
             | You only have to glance around to find other mine
             | disturbances. They are sized proportionately to the amount
             | of the material humans want. Copper mines are pretty
             | impressive. Potash and borax mines are rather large. Iron
             | mines are absolutely gigantic.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | It's not the hole that ruins the environment. It's what
               | comes out of it.
        
               | edgyquant wrote:
               | Lithium, which is required to diversify into renewable
               | energy.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | If only the only thing that came out of a mine was what
               | the company took away with them.
               | 
               | :(
        
           | locallost wrote:
           | They published a list, your home is on it. When can we start
           | drilling?
        
             | zo1 wrote:
             | Not OP. But as soon as they transfer money in compensation
             | that's fair and represents the value of the land. Or, I'm
             | happy to take a 20% cut of all resources mined from my
             | property. They can demolish it entirely and turn it into a
             | giant hole for all I care.
        
               | davidw wrote:
               | > as they transfer money in compensation that's fair and
               | represents the value of the land
               | 
               | I mean, if I'm a native American, I am not going to have
               | a whole lot of faith in that process...
        
           | mkoubaa wrote:
           | Agree, nobody wants to know or see how the sausage is made,
           | they just want the sausage.
        
             | nonethewiser wrote:
             | Assumption that EVs are cleaner in a nutshell.
             | 
             | To be clear I think EVs are cleaner, but you can't conclude
             | that from the fact that it doesnt emit while driving. EVs
             | just squeeze the emission event further up the supply chain
             | where a shocking amount of people don't see it.
        
               | edude03 wrote:
               | They're more efficient than burning oil and we currently
               | "mine" for oil so I don't see how that's not true
        
           | nonethewiser wrote:
           | Its already holding up different lithum mines in Nevada
           | https://apnews.com/article/business-nevada-plants-climate-
           | an...
        
             | 0xDEF wrote:
             | This is insane. These "environmentalists" really want the
             | world to become uninhabitable.
        
               | reportingsjr wrote:
               | Maybe massively subsidizing cars that need insane amounts
               | of resource extraction isn't the best solution here, and
               | there are other ways to deal with this.
               | 
               | Personally I'd prefer if we didn't pave over the whole
               | world with roads and suburbs.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | 0xDEF wrote:
               | Resource extraction for batteries and EV will at its
               | worst casue localized pollution. That is preferable to a
               | high CO2 future that will make most of the global south.
        
               | reportingsjr wrote:
               | This is not true, as subsidizing cars makes suburban and
               | exurban locations cheaper. Significant land use change in
               | this way absolutely contributes to high atmospheric CO2
               | as well as widespread environmental destruction.
        
           | midasuni wrote:
           | NIMBYS say that things should be built/mined, just not near
           | them.
        
             | lazide wrote:
             | Pretty sure those protestors are driving there in vehicles
             | using mined minerals, fueling them with energy refined and
             | extracted using mined minerals (and likely burning fossil
             | fuels too), etc.
             | 
             | If that isn't saying things should be mined, just not where
             | they can see it, I don't know what is.
        
           | demondemidi wrote:
           | Yes yes, those pesky native Americans are TOTAL NIMBY's.
           | 
           | /s
           | 
           | And there's such a prestine track record of resource
           | extraction by trillion-dollar conglomerates.
           | 
           | /s/s
           | 
           | I think the knee jerking is yours.
        
       | 0xDEF wrote:
       | There is a lot of propaganda on TikTok about how lithium mining
       | and refining is too polluting and only the clever Chinese know
       | how to do it at scale without polluting.
        
       | yieldcrv wrote:
       | Cant wait for Elon to come spread some democracy to US!
        
         | iwasanewt wrote:
         | Quite improbable, it seems [1]
         | 
         | [1](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1700805058370113934?t=D
         | 0...)
        
       | balls187 wrote:
       | Completely off-topic, but my 5 and 7 year old know about Kurt
       | Cobain, Nirvana because of their song Lithium. It's played
       | everytime the Seattle Kraken score a goal at home, and we go to
       | lots of games as a family.
       | 
       | My youngest always asks to play "Lithium by Nirvana" song when
       | it's his turn to pick.
       | 
       | Would be cool for the US to produce better batteries.
        
       | josh_today wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | 8bitsrule wrote:
       | A lot of different battery techs are being worked on. Lithium
       | might wind up being left behind in five years.
        
         | simondotau wrote:
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36834046
        
         | jokoon wrote:
         | Dear battery technology claimant,
         | 
         | Thank you for your submission of proposed new revolutionary
         | battery technology. Your new technology claims to be superior
         | to existing lithium-ion technology and is just around the
         | corner from taking over the world. Unfortunately your
         | technology will likely fail, because:
         | 
         | [ ] it is impractical to manufacture at scale.
         | 
         | [ ] it will be too expensive for users.
         | 
         | [ ] it suffers from too few recharge cycles.
         | 
         | [ ] it is incapable of delivering current at sufficient levels.
         | 
         | [ ] it lacks thermal stability at low or high temperatures.
         | 
         | [ ] it lacks the energy density to make it sufficiently
         | portable.
         | 
         | [ ] it has too short of a lifetime.
         | 
         | [ ] its charge rate is too slow.
         | 
         | [ ] its materials are too toxic.
         | 
         | [ ] it is too likely to catch fire or explode.
         | 
         | [ ] it is too minimal of a step forward for anybody to care.
         | 
         | [ ] this was already done 20 years ago and didn't work then.
         | 
         | [ ] by this time it ships li-ion advances will match it.
         | 
         | [ ] your claims are lies.
        
       | skymast wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | rcdwealth wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | jseliger wrote:
       | The price of a given commodity rises due to demand increases ->
       | people look for more of it -> people find it -> the commodity is
       | eventually mined or otherwise exploited -> prices moderate.
       | 
       | It happened with oil and now it's happening with lithium.
        
         | CameronNemo wrote:
         | See also Aluminium.
         | 
         | https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/11/alumi...
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | And in a lot of cases it's countries that aren't exactly stable
         | which have the resources. A lot of currently known lithium
         | deposits (thankfully) come from nations at least allied with
         | the West, but there are also places like Afghanistan [1] that
         | just reek of a repeat of the failure in managing oil countries.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/ev-
         | lit...
        
           | jbm wrote:
           | > of the failure in managing oil countries
           | 
           | It's always fun when we go masks off on HN.
        
             | mschuster91 wrote:
             | The West propped up a ton of dictators and looked sideways
             | as radical Islamists got ever more and more power.
             | 
             | Yes I'd call that a failure in management.
        
         | mulmen wrote:
         | It has happened with all resources. I won't assume your intent
         | but you invoked oil so I do want to point out the difference.
         | 
         | In a battery lithium is not consumed completely after every use
         | like oil. The lithium in a battery is used hundreds or
         | thousands of times. When the pack is dead it can still be
         | downcycled and eventually the individual cells recycled. With
         | the lithium being recovered and reused.
         | 
         | Yes, there is or will be a "lithium rush". But it will look a
         | lot more like gold or aluminum than oil.
        
         | mabbo wrote:
         | I think the difference is that lithium is being created into a
         | reusable product while oil is mostly made into a consumable,
         | used once.
         | 
         | A good battery lasts years, maybe decades. And in theory it can
         | then be recycled.
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | > I think the difference is that lithium is being created
           | into a reusable product while oil is mostly made into a
           | consumable, used once.
           | 
           | Sourcing lithium is something we've been thinking a lot
           | about, whereas we haven't reached peak fossil fuels or
           | scarcity. There are plenty of places to continue drilling:
           | the US, Greenland, the Arctic Circle, Antarctica ...
           | 
           | The problem with fossil fuels is the carbon entering the
           | atmosphere.
        
             | nerdponx wrote:
             | To be fair, "peak oil" was a big scare at one point.
        
               | ddingus wrote:
               | That should continue to be a scare.
               | 
               | It is likely we are or have peaked.
               | 
               | The way I see it, we bootstrapped our existing tech off
               | high energy density oil.
               | 
               | If it were gone, we would find it extremely difficult to
               | repeat it all.
               | 
               | Now that we have built all this up, it is also our
               | opportunity to bootstrap something far more sustainable,
               | or we do risk a serious regression and a lot of people
               | die.
               | 
               | Longer term, we use oil for far too much.
               | 
               | Getting off of it preserves a resource we may well find
               | need of again.
        
               | walleeee wrote:
               | It is especially maddening that our fossil inheritance,
               | dipped into with wisdom and in moderation, _could_ have
               | been a profound and lasting gift for all future life on
               | earth, instead of threatening its very existence. The
               | dose makes the poison
        
               | anonylizard wrote:
               | Technology generally speaking only moves forward. Some
               | technologies will be lost in a civilizational collapse,
               | but the most important ones generally survive.
               | 
               | If another collapse happens, and without oil, people
               | could believably bootstrap straight from electricity +
               | batteries. There'll be endless amounts of quality scrap
               | material and manuals. A lot of critical small scale
               | appliances can be powered by hand-cranked motors.
        
               | ddingus wrote:
               | It does not work that way. What you don't understand is
               | the energy density multiplied by massive availability is
               | what made the difference. There is chemistry in all of
               | that too. We make so damn many things with fossil fuels
               | it's hard to comprehend.
               | 
               | If we were to collapse, we would be left with some
               | remnants that we would be unable to reproduce!
               | 
               | The tech needed for that runs on fuels we would find
               | ourselves unable to procure.
               | 
               | That's coping, not building or bootstrapping.
        
               | nostrademons wrote:
               | Arguably we reached peak oil in 2019:
               | 
               | https://www.statista.com/statistics/265203/global-oil-
               | produc...
               | 
               | It's hard to extrapolate a trend though - there was a dip
               | caused by COVID, and global oil use has been growing
               | since then, but it's still not back to where it was 4
               | years ago.
               | 
               | Also a lot of people think peak oil means that we
               | suddenly won't have any gas available. No. Peak oil means
               | all the easily extractable oil is gone, and so all future
               | projects need to use more capital-intensive,
               | technologically-advanced extraction techniques that cost
               | more, and so the price of oil goes up, and then we use
               | less of it while it's replaced by other technologies.
               | Which is exactly what's been happening for the past ~5-15
               | years. U.S. is back to being the world's top oil
               | producer, but all of it is in shale oil fields that
               | aren't economically viable below ~$50/barrel, and so gas
               | will never go back down to the $1/gallon it was in the
               | 90s.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | There are many different definition of 'Peak oil' but
               | anybody that thinks this is all because of technology is
               | just wrong.
               | 
               | The OPEC countries could produce far more oil far
               | cheaper, but they don't want to. There are plenty of oil
               | fields left. Not to mention fighting economic war against
               | Iran and Russia, two huge producers.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Typically we reached peak of some type of energy because
             | the world switched to something else. Granted whales were
             | in danger of being hunted to extinction when the world
             | switched to oil lamps, but it isn't clear that was the
             | reason the world switched.
        
           | jaggederest wrote:
           | Multiply the number of MTBF cycles times the battery
           | capacity. Every battery is consumable, every time you draw
           | current from it, they're not tanks full of liquid, they're
           | chemistry.
           | 
           | That being said they're astronomically more efficient than
           | even an ideal carnot engine.
        
             | xorbax wrote:
             | I wasn't aware that using a battery destroyed the lithium
        
               | fallingknife wrote:
               | Only if it's a fusion battery!
        
               | xorbax wrote:
               | The best part is that OP edited his comment to make it
               | seem like he _didn 't_ argue that an exhausted battery
               | consumed lithium
               | 
               | Fun!
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | A completely used up battery contains the same amount of
             | lithium, cobalt, etc it took to manufacture it. The only
             | question is the economics around mining vs recycling.
             | 
             | An easier to recycle battery that had very slightly fewer
             | charge cycles could be a net win. For scale this depot has
             | enough lithium for ~10 billion of EV's using Tesla's
             | battery chemistry and pack size as a benchmark. How
             | expensive it is to extract is however unknown.
        
             | _ph_ wrote:
             | The materials a battery is composed of almost completly can
             | be recycled into a new battery. So creating a new battery
             | requires some work and energy, but not new components.
        
           | _ph_ wrote:
           | Not only in theory, but quite practically. The technology
           | exists, but awaits the time when there are a lot of old
           | batteries to recycle.
        
             | dharmab wrote:
             | Awaits? There are battery recycling plants running
             | profitably right now that recover 95% of lithium.
        
               | Tagbert wrote:
               | Those companies will usually explain that those are pilot
               | plants. They don't have enough volume to really scale to
               | economical production, yet. They'll need for a lot more
               | EVs to be on the road long enough for batteries to be
               | damaged or fail and need to be recycled. Until recently,
               | the number of new EVs was very low, just single digit
               | percentage of car sales. Now that they are getting into
               | double digits, the potential supply of batteries is
               | starting to grow. It will just take time, now.
        
           | bliteben wrote:
           | the CO2 doesn't escape the atmosphere, it just doesn't
           | recycle itself in a timeframe you are looking for
        
             | dexwiz wrote:
             | The resource really isn't the carbon itself but it's stored
             | chemical energy. Without new energy input, the carbon in
             | CO2 will never become a hydrocarbon again.
        
               | moralestapia wrote:
               | This, and this is also why most "carbon recycling" tech
               | is DOA as you cannot go backwards (cheaply) on
               | thermodynamics.
        
               | bliteben wrote:
               | turns out that happens without human intervention
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | I don't think so? Or, could you say what mechanism you're
               | thinking of here?
        
               | bliteben wrote:
               | Photosynthesis turns carbon and energy into plants
               | immediately.
               | 
               | Longer term the same processes that turned algae and
               | other life forms into oil are still happening and try as
               | we might we aren't going to stop them, but they proceed
               | at what is likely a pace that will take long after humans
               | are extinct to replenish what we have used.
        
               | margalabargala wrote:
               | > Longer term the same processes that turned algae and
               | other life forms into oil are still happening
               | 
               | This is unfortunately not true.
               | 
               | The vast majority of our fossil fuels are formed from
               | carbon that was sequestered into cellulose in plants,
               | before anything had evolved the ability to digest
               | cellulose. It piled up, and eventually compressed into
               | coal. Look up the `Carboniferous Period" for more
               | details.
               | 
               | These reserves are no longer being formed because we have
               | fungi that break down these materials and return the CO2
               | to the air.
               | 
               | Planet Earth will never again have oil and coal reserves
               | of the size it did 200 years ago.
        
               | alexvoda wrote:
               | I was just about to reply the same but I think what you
               | said is true for coal but not necessarily so for oil.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Ah I see what you were trying to get at. Seems a bit
               | beside the point, but sure.
        
           | grepfru_it wrote:
           | Hydrocarbons can be recycled
        
             | sanderjd wrote:
             | Tell me more.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Plastics can be recycled. We also know how to put them in
               | various other reactors to make synthetic hydrocarbons.
               | 
               | The above processes are costly, but we know how to do it.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | Ah I see. I didn't think either of the parent comments
               | were talking about plastics. Is most oil turned into
               | recycled plastics? I assumed that most oil is turned into
               | combustible fuel, but maybe that's not true.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Seems like 8-12% is turned into plastics. Though it's
               | usually natural gas that is used, not oil directly.
               | Natural gas is also used to produce fertilizer and
               | explosives in large quantities.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | But I think fertilizer and explosives are also not
               | recyclable.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | That depends on your definition I guess. They both do add
               | a lot of nitrogen (and some carbon) to the atmosphere
               | when 'used'.
        
               | sanderjd wrote:
               | I'm struggling to figure out what definition of
               | "recyclable" fits what you said. What definition are you
               | thinking of?
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | I'm guessing I misread what you wrote and got the sense
               | backwards.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Most oil is not recycled. We know how to do it for all
               | uses, but that doesn't mean we can. The energy costs make
               | is not useful. If we had an infinite source of free
               | energy we know how to recycle CO2 and h2o back into
               | hydrocarbons.
        
       | momirlan wrote:
       | funny thing is, technology is advancing so fast that lithium
       | might not even be a factor in new batteries.
        
       | foreverobama wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | pfannkuchen wrote:
       | Dumb question. Could a really serious impact from space increase
       | the probability of a volcano forming at the point of impact?
       | 
       | I'm imagining that volcanoes are a little bit like the channeling
       | hazard when making espresso, where the shallow or disturbed area
       | are more likely to erupt with hot liquid.
       | 
       | This is relevant because I have seen it said that meteors could
       | be a source of lithium.
        
       | demondemidi wrote:
       | Mixed feelings.
       | 
       | On the one hand: cool, less exploitation of developing nations by
       | a few billionaires. (Downvotes. Cool. I know it is hard for some
       | people to accept reality because they just need to worship a
       | wealth they'll never experience, no matter who or what it
       | obliterates.)
       | 
       | On the other hand: dammit, we were just getting around to cost-
       | effectiveness of lithium recycling, but now it looks like that's
       | another several decades off.
        
       | sdsd wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | That's maybe because you have distorted view of the worth of
         | 'discovering lithium' is.
         | 
         | You hear: "Valueable resource found under Biden's watch'
         | 
         | I hear: "Another lithium resource that want be exploited
         | discovered"
        
         | labster wrote:
         | Memories are essentially stories we tell ourselves about the
         | world. They're not real records of events, they're condensed
         | down into a narrative. Stories are how we understand the world.
         | It's hard to fault you for picking up on the meme of Manifest
         | Destiny; at least you're self aware about it.
        
           | labrador wrote:
           | I realized recently that my memories aren't true stories.
           | They feel true, but a lot of context is missing that would
           | make them closer to the truth.
        
           | qup wrote:
           | Sometimes I tell myself I may as well change some bad
           | memories to be better. If I manage to accomplish that, I can
           | change the past. Because the only record of some of these
           | events is in my own brain. I am the arbiter.
        
       | MenhirMike wrote:
       | This is going to be the plot of a Bruckheimer/Emmerich co-
       | production, is it? A team of scientists needs to travel into the
       | heart of a volcano to find the lost city of Lithium, but one of
       | them is actually a spy for a foreign power that will try to kill
       | everyone else to prevent the secret to get out, only to be
       | thwarted by the lone survivor, a man who was recently divorced by
       | his wife and just wants to see his children again. He finds
       | another (female) survivor, and together they defeat the spy
       | mastermind and are evacuated by the US Military mere seconds
       | before the volcano erupts.
        
         | andrewstuart wrote:
         | I'd be surprised only if this _didn't_ happen.
        
         | vermasque wrote:
         | Sounds a lot like Michael Crichton's Congo
        
         | Blammar wrote:
         | You should work with ChatGPT4 to generate a movie script for
         | Roland! Shouldn't take more than a week!
        
         | tmpX7dMeXU wrote:
         | _CCR plays in the background_
        
       | UberFly wrote:
       | Time to buy real estate in McDermitt Nevada I guess.
        
       | tmountain wrote:
       | I've heard a lot about the potential of the Salton Sea regarding
       | producing the "world's greenest lithium". I wonder how this
       | compares.
        
       | georgeburdell wrote:
       | (The volcano is dormant)
        
         | jandrewrogers wrote:
         | Not dormant, extinct. Calderas in that area tend to be ancient
         | ancestors of the current Yellowstone caldera.
        
           | dtgriscom wrote:
           | "This is an ex-volcano."
        
         | jj999 wrote:
         | (list 'The 'volcano 'is 'dormant)
        
       | runjake wrote:
       | The"US Volcano" == McDermitt caldera on the Oregon/Nevada border.
        
       | zaroth wrote:
       | How does the long lifecycle of large lithium batteries affect the
       | lithium recycling industry?
       | 
       | I would guess that large-scale recycling is only just coming
       | online in the next few years.
       | 
       | Of course there is initial supply now, but battery production is
       | growing exponentially (for EV and Grid) those battery lifespans
       | are 5-10 years or longer.
        
       | almost_usual wrote:
       | > 'They seem to have hit the sweet spot where the clays are
       | preserved close to the surface, so they won't have to extract as
       | much rock, yet it hasn't been weathered away yet.'
       | 
       | > Benson says his company expects to begin mining in 2026. It
       | will remove clay with water and then separate out the small
       | lithium-bearing grains from larger minerals by centrifuging. The
       | clay will then be leached in vats of sulfuric acid to extract
       | lithium.
        
         | greggsy wrote:
         | This sounds very similar to uranium refinement.
         | 
         | How economical is the refinement of lithium clays compared to
         | stone or brine mines? Do they have similar chemical, water and
         | mechanical refinement requirements?
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | corethree wrote:
       | If all cars in the world had lithium batteries how long would
       | lithium last?
        
       | neycoda wrote:
       | Wouldn't it be cool to harness volcanos and Earth's magma layer
       | to recycle our junk and craft materials we use?
        
       | ChatGTP wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
         | I don't understand this criticism. You mine lithium once. You
         | have to pull fossil fuels out of the ground constantly even
         | after you build the car using iron you've mined out of the
         | ground.
        
           | nerdponx wrote:
           | How much of the lithium in a typical electric car battery is
           | able to be extracted and put into another battery?
        
             | sanderjd wrote:
             | I think the answer for "able to be" is 100%. I think the
             | question is how economical we can make it to separate it
             | from the rest of the materials and then process it into a
             | new battery.
             | 
             | I'm sure we'll never be able to get back 100% cost
             | effectively, but I'm sure someday people will be working on
             | driving it as close to that as they can.
        
           | wyager wrote:
           | To be fair, petroleum extraction is minimally invasive. You
           | can easily live with an oil well on your property. You can't
           | live with a lithium mine on your property.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Why not? The process doesn't look that bad.
        
             | Tagbert wrote:
             | As other have pointed out, the amount of lithium that needs
             | to be extracted is much smaller than the amount of oil that
             | is already being extracted.
             | 
             | An EV battery will use around 8-16kg of lithium that should
             | last for the life of the car. Then the battery can be
             | recycled. Current recycling programs can recover around 95%
             | of the lithium. Over time, the demand for lithium will
             | reach a much lower volume than oil.
        
               | Gibbon1 wrote:
               | It's always a good idea to just flat out compare the mass
               | of alternatives.
               | 
               | A tank of gasoline weighs more than the lithium in an EV
               | battery. The entire battery weighs as much as 10 tanks of
               | gas. And 20 some kg of lithium is way less than the
               | 1000kg of steel that goes into making a car.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | Not sure what you are talking about, it highly depends on
             | the way lithium is extracted.
             | 
             | A lithium hard rock mine is like any other open pid mine.
             | Its a big hole in the ground with trucks going up and down.
             | 
             | A brine operations is basically a bunch of huge fields of
             | water that just sort of sit there. It needs lots of space.
             | 
             | New forms of DLE Deep Brine mines look very much like a
             | petroleum extraction well (even using old holes from that).
             | However not fully commercial yet.
             | 
             | However I would also say that petroleum extraction on a
             | large scale, specially in the ocean has lots of bad
             | effects. And the gas from those mines will escape for
             | decades.
        
             | _ph_ wrote:
             | In some places, where it is still possible to use classic
             | wells to pump oil. But in most locations, these have become
             | rare. That we still can extract way too much oil is due to
             | technologies like fracking, oil sands and what else. So
             | claiming petroleum extraction is minimal invasive is a
             | gross misrepresentation.
        
           | acdha wrote:
           | There's also a function of scale: the amount of lithium in a
           | car battery is orders of magnitude less than the amount of
           | oil a non-EV will burn over the same lifetime, and even if
           | you're buying fossil fuel electricity the greater efficiency
           | means you're still using less.
        
           | grepfru_it wrote:
           | And how much fossil fuels are required to pull the lithium
           | out of the ground?
           | 
           | I don't have the answer I'm just helping you understand the
           | criticism
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | It very much depends. There are many different ways of
             | mining lithium.
             | 
             | An Australian hard rock mine will use the same amount of
             | fossil fuel as any other hard rock mine.
             | 
             | Brine operations don't use much but the lithium still has
             | to be transported from a desert.
             | 
             | Future technology such as DLE (Direct Lithium Extraction)
             | have to potential to require basically no fossil fuels at
             | all.
        
             | 0xDEF wrote:
             | These type of questions are not serious. This person
             | already knows it's just a tiny fraction of what a non-EV
             | vehicle will burn throughout its lifetime.
             | 
             | Just downvote, flag, and move on.
        
             | devnulll wrote:
             | Seems like a sunlight rich area such as the Nevada high
             | desert is about as energy friendly as one could imagine.
             | The main requirements seem to be water, sulfuric acid, and
             | (of course) power.
        
             | ChatGTP wrote:
             | People are weird, I think fossil fuel is idiotic too.
        
             | dessimus wrote:
             | Probably no more than is used finding, drilling, extracting
             | new petroleum wells. Especially as we seem to have already
             | gotten to a lot of the 'easily' accessible crude oil, and
             | are drilling in Arctic and Deep Sea environments.
        
           | fnordpiglet wrote:
           | If you've driven along the gulf coast the cost of oil is
           | obvious. Growing up it was beautiful view of glistening water
           | under a beautiful sky. Now it's a post industrial view of oil
           | platforms as far as the eye can see. Where fracking happens
           | there's earthquakes in geologically stable areas. Etc.
           | Lithium extraction isn't for the light hearted, but the
           | deposits aren't as vastly dispersed and extraction and
           | processing happens in a smaller foot print. (Unless you
           | consider extracting from ocean water, but even then the
           | industrial footprint is contained) oil extraction is
           | sprawling and pervasive, and once a well dries up, become
           | discarded blight.
        
         | lifechoseme123 wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Because lithium extraction such a tiny aspect of everything,
           | and replacing a huge and evil oil industry that has terrible
           | effects on everything is like comparing an apple to an F-150.
           | 
           | One is so clearly worse that its not even really worth
           | debating. And that's why very often the 'but what about
           | lithium effect on the environment' is often broad up by car
           | and oil lobbyist to gaslight people. That is the reason the
           | person got downvoted.
           | 
           | But if want to know, lithium mining is a worse basically like
           | mining any other hard rocket, cooper or whatever. There are
           | some issues with brine mining but they are minor and very
           | localized. As with all mining there is issues with local
           | representation.
        
             | terrybingus wrote:
             | [flagged]
        
             | lifechoseme123 wrote:
             | Thanks for clarifying!! The Oil vs. Lithium industry
             | competition issue makes sense.
        
           | Tagbert wrote:
           | You should understand that there is a lot of astroturfing
           | going on now with comments starting that EVs and batteries
           | are terribly toxic and will be an huge environmental
           | disaster. Those people never seem to acknowledge the counter
           | arguments. Batteries use only a small amount of lithium
           | (8-16kg per vehicle). There is some toxicity to lithium
           | mining but it is not a particularly toxic element and the
           | effects are localized. Once produced, the lithium in
           | batteries can be recycled efficiently. We are not going to
           | need millions of lithium mines.
           | 
           | The amount needed is a couple of orders of magnitude less
           | than the amount of drilling sites needed for the toxic oil
           | that we are current extracting and burning and that cannot be
           | recycled in any meaningful way.
           | 
           | We are concerned for the environment and need to make trade
           | offs to get the best outcome for the environment. So far, the
           | small amount of lithium mines seems like a good trade off
           | against large numbers of oil drills.
        
           | 0xDEF wrote:
           | You are concern trolling. The negative effects of lithium
           | mining and refining is completely trivial compared to the
           | increasingly uninhabitable planet that more CO2 emissions
           | will lead to.
        
             | lifechoseme123 wrote:
             | Have you seen a Mine before?
             | 
             | This is trivial [1, first image in article]? It looks like
             | an Open Pit Coal Mine. I'm sure you'd appreciate if your
             | local forest or parkland was turned into this.
             | 
             | I suppose we have different definitions of trivial.
             | 
             | Sounds like you enjoy polluted water, diseased wildlife,
             | etc.
             | 
             | Personally, I care about the health of the humans,
             | wildlife, and ecosystems.
             | 
             | "Concern Trolling" ...Get outside. Touch some grass and
             | trees. I think you spend too much time online...
             | 
             | [1] https://qz.com/2156463/why-elon-musk-wants-tesla-to-
             | start-mi...
        
         | almost_usual wrote:
         | The article made this extraction sound pretty trivial compared
         | to other lithium deposits. The clay is close to the surface and
         | won't require significant mining.
         | 
         | > 'They seem to have hit the sweet spot where the clays are
         | preserved close to the surface, so they won't have to extract
         | as much rock, yet it hasn't been weathered away yet.'
         | 
         | > Benson says his company expects to begin mining in 2026. It
         | will remove clay with water and then separate out the small
         | lithium-bearing grains from larger minerals by centrifuging.
         | The clay will then be leached in vats of sulfuric acid to
         | extract lithium.
        
       | 1-6 wrote:
       | Unfortunately, OSHA will prevent dumpster-diving for that
       | lithium.
        
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