[HN Gopher] The end of the subscription era is coming
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The end of the subscription era is coming
        
       Author : CharlesW
       Score  : 105 points
       Date   : 2023-09-09 17:36 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (nickfthilton.medium.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (nickfthilton.medium.com)
        
       | notatoad wrote:
       | huh, really... https://ibb.co/KNX20Xk
        
       | rcarr wrote:
       | His graph should be labelled with "exerted effort" involved
       | rather than "technical distribution". It's about the same amount
       | of difficulty to distribute podcasts/books/music on the internet,
       | but podcasts require the least amount of effort (connect
       | microphones to pc, hit record in any basic audio recording app)
       | whereas books require a sustained amount of effort across time as
       | does music. Publishing a book also requires you to learn
       | specialist software for publishing the book (although Vellum
       | seems to have simplified this) and music requires you to master a
       | DAW. Obviously narrative films and games require not only more
       | effort but 99.99% of the time, a team to make.
        
         | louky wrote:
         | My Guitar->microphone->audio recording app model of music
         | production doesn't even require knowing what a "DAW" is, yet
         | works fine for me and others.
        
           | shwaj wrote:
           | Are you doing it professionally or as a hobby? I'd wager that
           | >99% of artists who make a living from music use a DAW (or
           | pay someone else to)
        
       | trollied wrote:
       | > The New York Times costs $7 for a hard copy
       | 
       | This made me WTF. Crikey.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | I didn't know but I can't say I'm really shocked. It was at
         | least a couple bucks years ago.
         | 
         | And newsstand prices for most periodicals have long been
         | multiples of the subscription price. I'm always a bit surprised
         | there's a big enough market for magazines at grocery stores and
         | airports but impulse purchases I guess.
        
         | kjkjadksj wrote:
         | Cheaper to print it yourself
        
         | _delirium wrote:
         | I think he may have been confused by looking at the NYT online
         | store [1]. They will sell you back issues for $7 for a weekday
         | paper, or $12 for a Sunday paper. But the back issue price is
         | marked up from the cover price. The newsstand price if you're
         | buying today's newspaper in person somewhere is currently $4
         | for Mon-Sat and $6 on Sunday.
         | 
         | [1] https://store.nytimes.com/products/print-
         | newspapers?variant=...
        
       | katzgrau wrote:
       | I recently bought a local news org.
       | 
       | One of the things I hate about the media industry is the constant
       | "we're dying" or "this is going to die."
       | 
       | Go to a local news conference that's supposedly about the future
       | and it feels a lot like a funeral.
       | 
       | Some other way of doing things will come along. Help figure it
       | out or get the fuck out of the way and stop trying to spread your
       | shitty dark version of the future - because you have no idea what
       | happens next.
        
       | costanzaDynasty wrote:
       | As long as the quality of the content was good I would alway pay
       | for an ad-free version. But the quality has greatly diminished
       | across the board and Ive stopped paying for any subscription.
       | 
       | New sites are the worst at this. They've pandered to their sub
       | base at the expense of the average reader. I just find it funny
       | that all the journalists finally got off Twitter and every story
       | that's been hiding in plain site for the last decade is now in
       | their Sunday edition ever week.
        
       | h4l wrote:
       | My intuition is that it's not possible to have an open platform
       | like substack where the majority are making enough to live off.
       | Imagine that was currently the case. People would see the
       | platform as easy money and jump in. The quality of the median
       | writer would drop, as would the median income, until the
       | perception that it was easy money reduced enough to stop people
       | joining.
        
         | coffeebeqn wrote:
         | There are plenty of markets like that. YouTube and twitch are
         | very popular. It's just that the top 0.0001% make a good living
         | while the rest don't make any money
        
           | patmorgan23 wrote:
           | I think that percentage is a lot bigger if you only count the
           | people who are posting regularly.
        
       | nickdothutton wrote:
       | I like constraint based planning. What is the constraint here on
       | making money through subs? Human beings/consumers? Time the
       | humans have to spend reading? Talent of the writer?
        
       | vjk800 wrote:
       | As Nicholas Nassim Taleb would, maybe, speculatively, put it:
       | highs school statistics teaching based on normal distributions
       | claims another victim.
       | 
       | The writers constantly writes about averages. Digital economies
       | almost always follow heavy tailed power law distributions for
       | which the mean is a completely worthless statistic.
       | 
       | The top 100 or whatever creators in any market are clearly making
       | it work nicely. The rest of the chumps are merely trying the
       | market. How the game works is: you invest person time/money to
       | try something. If it catches (which it almost surely will not),
       | you will do very very well. If it doesn't, you go do something
       | else. It's akin to playing the lottery, but maybe with a bit
       | higher odds at succeeding.
       | 
       | More people will never make a profitable career out of writing
       | simply because there aren't any more readers to read all the
       | stuff that's being written. If the top 1000 or so writers can
       | approximately satisfy the reading needs of all the people in the
       | world, the rest of the writers are not needed and they will not
       | make any money no matter what monetization system is being
       | utilized.
        
       | grumblepeet wrote:
       | Asks me to sign up for a subscription.
        
         | danjc wrote:
         | This
        
         | pryelluw wrote:
         | Says that it's coming, not that it's here. (-:
        
       | ccooffee wrote:
       | I'm reminded of the quote from Keynes:
       | 
       | "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain
       | solvent."
       | 
       | While I think the author does a good job pointing out how
       | unsustainable this business model is, predicting the end of the
       | subscription model seems a large leap. Given that the author
       | doesn't frame the discussion with a solid prediction, this
       | article comes across as a "it doesn't make sense to me" rant with
       | a little bit of embellishment to predict a downfall at some
       | unstated time in the future.
        
         | rotifer wrote:
         | Somewhat tangentially, that quote seems likely to be from a
         | financial advisor named Gary Shilling [1], rather than Keynes.
         | 
         | [1] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/
        
         | IshKebab wrote:
         | Right. The fact that only a tiny few earn enough to live off
         | hasn't stopped the music and book industries from existing well
         | before subscriptions were a thing. The article is a collection
         | of observations and numbers with no interesting conclusion.
        
       | lapcat wrote:
       | I don't think the comparison between the NYT and substacks or
       | podcasts is apt, because the NYT is a NEWSpaper. Does it contain
       | opinion columns? Yes, among countless other columns. But the
       | fundamental purpose of the NYT is not just opinion. Whereas
       | substacks and podcasts appear to be mostly opinion pieces. You
       | don't often have _news_ broken on them.
       | 
       | What substacks and podcasts have shown is that some "thought
       | leaders" can make a massively lucrative living independent from
       | the newspapers, and more than they could make with the
       | newspapers. But none of this applies to writers of _news_. News
       | writers still need the news organizations, and the subscribers of
       | the newspapers, to support them.
       | 
       | The author talks about "writers" in general without making that
       | crucial distinction. Hard news writing is mostly a thankless job.
       | It rarely provides the opportunity to build a "personal brand"
       | like opinion writing does, unless you're Woodward and Bernstein
       | breaking Watergate. Even someone like Glenn Greenwald, who has
       | broken some huge stories like Snowden, makes most of his money
       | from spouting his opinions online rather than from breaking hard
       | news.
        
       | taftster wrote:
       | Ha ha ha ... as I get a popover / overlay for a subscription to
       | Medium.
       | 
       | Yeah, I'm thinking no, the era of the subscription is just
       | getting started.
        
       | MostlyStable wrote:
       | And what does the author think the alternative is? He mentions
       | the collapse of advertising, so they clearly don't think that ad-
       | supported models are the way of the future.
       | 
       | I am completely unconvinced. The fact that the "average/median"
       | income from these models is low is completely unsurprisng. We
       | should expect that the vast majority of the income would go to
       | the very top performers. This is not an indication that
       | subscription doesn't work, just that it's going to end up looking
       | like acting, music, and professional sports. Those are all real
       | careers that have persisted for a very long time where the
       | "average" wage is extremely low.
       | 
       | This article does a bad job clearly stating what the author
       | thinks the problem is (just vaguely gesturing at average wages
       | without explaining why that should matter), doesn't suggest an
       | alternative _at all_ and instead seems to snidely be sniping at
       | non-mainstream journalists and creators.
       | 
       | I am deeply unimpressed.
        
         | datatrashfire wrote:
         | > It is an idyllic, almost utopian, perspective. There is an
         | imagined logic at play, entirely divorced from reality. In the
         | world where Substack were an expeditious route to "more people"
         | being able to "make a good and profitable career out of
         | writing", we would also live in a world where you bought your
         | lamp chops from a butcher, your baguette from a bakery, your
         | stilton from a cheesemonger and your wine from a vintner,
         | rather than just everything from a supermarket.
        
         | izzydata wrote:
         | I doubt subscriptions will entirely go away, but maybe some of
         | them will. Things like software as a service often don't make
         | sense to me. It seems like companies who used to make software
         | and sold it as a complete package realized that people aren't
         | going to consistently buy their software again if what they
         | have is working for their needs. So now instead of writing
         | software and selling it they have to constantly justify their
         | continued existence by making ever-increasingly niche changes
         | and persuading people that they need the update. This seems
         | unsustainable to me.
        
           | burnished wrote:
           | I think thats because you are looking at the poor performers;
           | the real goal is finding a way to turn your product into a
           | service (and thus ongoing purchases) because doing it well
           | becomes a license to print money. Doing it poorly becomes
           | more like wheedling or strong arming.
        
           | jshen wrote:
           | That leaves out a lot of the story. Those purchased packages
           | often went out of date after a couple years, I remember being
           | stuck on a different version of omnigraffle than other people
           | I worked with because it was a pain to go through procurement
           | to buy a new version. This was a giant headache.
           | 
           | There are also new truly useful features that people have
           | come to expect that doesn't work well with packaged software.
           | Online collaboration, syncing across devices, etc.
        
             | dehrmann wrote:
             | > There are also new truly useful features that people have
             | come to expect that doesn't work well with packaged
             | software.
             | 
             | Supports the latest iOS version...
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | It really varies. (And obviously the dollar amounts matter.)
           | 
           | Subscribe to software that is an ongoing part of my regular
           | workflow(s) and is regularly being enhanced? I'm mostly OK
           | with a subscription to that--see Lightroom/Photoshop for me.
           | 
           | Subscribe to some utility I maybe pull out for a task once a
           | year? Nope.
        
           | patmorgan23 wrote:
           | Most software was sold with annual maintenance/upgrades
           | anyway.
        
           | benjaminwootton wrote:
           | Software is never really finished and often has to be hosted
           | and maintained on an ongoing basis.
           | 
           | An ongoing stream of smaller payments just seems like a
           | natural way of paying for an ongoing service, even if the
           | benefits are weighted to the vendor.
        
             | neuralRiot wrote:
             | > Software is never really finished and often has to be
             | hosted and maintained on an ongoing basis.
             | 
             | I have no problem paying for updates, as long as the
             | product would keep working without an active subscription
             | (what happens if there's no connectivity, servers are down,
             | the provider goes bakrupt or change its terms?)
        
         | m463 wrote:
         | even gym memberships persist, funded by the folks who signed up
         | january 1st, went for a few weeks, then never returned.
        
         | rvrs wrote:
         | What's worse is that the author fails to acknowledge is that
         | these writers have the opportunity to cater towards niches and
         | global communities. There are vast, global audiences who would
         | definitely pay for content and commentary from people who
         | represent them and their interests.
         | 
         | Moreover, online creators don't always have _one_ source of
         | revenue. This practice is employed widely by YouTubers: they
         | supplement their ad revenue with merch, patreon, Twitch
         | streaming, and so on.
         | 
         | The average earnings on a single platform mean absolutely
         | nothing.
        
         | ChicagoDave wrote:
         | I could see pay-as-you-go being an alternative.
         | 
         | Some credits based system where you purchase hours or articles
         | and if your account has a rebuy threshold, it auto charges you.
         | The rebuy would be opt-in.
        
           | aidos wrote:
           | How is this not a thing yet? If I could pay a tiny amount per
           | article on Medium that I currently can't read, I totally
           | would. Surely there's a system for these micropayments? Why
           | hasn't it taken off?
        
             | landemva wrote:
             | > there's a system for these micropayments?
             | 
             | Brave content creators. https://creators.brave.com/
             | 
             | > Why hasn't it taken off?
             | 
             | I wish it would gain more website adoption because it works
             | well to tip content creators and is convenient for me as a
             | consumer.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | midasuni wrote:
         | Years ago I subscribed to a daily newspaper (still subscribe to
         | a weekly news magazine), I subscribed to insurance for my car,
         | home, etc - still do. I subscribed to cable tv, I subscribed to
         | my phone line, I subscribed to my apartment by paying rent, I
         | subscribed to a transport service by paying for a season
         | ticket. As recently as 5 years ago I subscribed to a milk and
         | bread service.
         | 
         | Subscriptions are nothing new. Those subscriptions (short of
         | cable tv) would be nothing unusual 100 years ago.
         | 
         | His examples of beer and cinema are odd as I current consume
         | both, neither through a subscription, however mail order wine
         | clubs date back 100 years.
         | 
         | What is new is the subscription to things you already own, the
         | "heated seat" debacle for example.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | >What is new is the subscription to things you already own,
           | the "heated seat" debacle for example.
           | 
           | Enabling additional functionality (or limiting it) for
           | hardware you've already purchased isn't unheard of in
           | business products--including computers--where the unit
           | margins support it. But consumer unit margins are usually
           | thinner and most consumers don't really accept it as a "fair"
           | practice.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | It's a very clear signal that the entire market is broken
             | and there isn't competition there.
        
             | wredue wrote:
             | It's not a consumer unit problem.
             | 
             | Heated seat subscriptions are bad because by not paying for
             | them, the heated seats are objectively costing you. You are
             | paying for extra weight, streets are paying for extra
             | weight, materials are extra mined and produced so the
             | environment is paying for extra weight. Etc.
             | 
             | It is directly and indirectly objectively negative for you
             | to have heated seats that you don't want and are not
             | subscribed for.
        
               | nprateem wrote:
               | I doubt that's anyone's complaint. It's more likely
               | they'd have been annoyed to have had crippled seats in a
               | car they'd bought and have to pay an on-going fee for no
               | reason beyond greed. There are no other on-costs for
               | manufacturers unlike other subscription-based products.
        
             | crazygringo wrote:
             | Yup and that's not something new either -- it's been pretty
             | standard practice for many decades. But similarly
             | "controversial" from the start for consumers (while
             | basically a non-issue for corporate customers).
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I worked for a long ago minicomputer company that sold a
               | scaled-down version of their first SMP system in 3
               | flavors--and the only difference was microcode that
               | throttled the performance of two of the models.
               | 
               | And when I was an analyst, many people were always
               | surprised to hear all the games that IBM played with
               | mainframes (and to a lesser degree with POWER servers) to
               | sell you the same compute capacity that was cheaper when
               | only used for certain workloads (like Linux) or that was
               | inaccessible until activated "on demand."
        
           | glogla wrote:
           | I just realized that by paying toll yearly, I subscribe to my
           | country's motorways.
        
             | ArekDymalski wrote:
             | And by paying taxes you subscribe to several governmental
             | services on both local and national level.
        
               | glogla wrote:
               | True, but it feels less like a subscription because it's
               | not a flat amount per month or year.
        
           | keenmaster wrote:
           | > What is new is the subscription to things you already own,
           | the "heated seat" debacle for example.
           | 
           | Yep, and that is what's going away. BMW recently decided to
           | stop offering heated seat subscriptions.
        
         | xwowsersx wrote:
         | Right. Isn't this just the Pareto distribution at play, which
         | seems to be in effect in all domains of creative human
         | production? In any particular field, roughly 20% of individuals
         | achieve 80% of the results or success in that field. The author
         | hasn't demonstrated this is unique to writing. None of this is
         | to say the author is incorrect about the current subscription
         | model in writing being unsustainable (I don't know if it is or
         | isn't, though I suspect it's not), just noting what I think is
         | missing from their argument.
        
         | pphysch wrote:
         | Yeah, the idea that rent-seeking behavior will magically dry up
         | requires an exceptional argument, which is not presented here.
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | A lot of software business models may have been overly
         | influenced by interest rates the last few years.
         | 
         | At a low interest rate, the time value of capital is low - a
         | company can defer revenue almost indefinitely with minimal
         | cost. Hence, a subscription business like SalesForce can spend
         | handsomely on onboarding, and expect to make money back over
         | the course of 5-10 years. To a certain extent, the same applies
         | to ad supported business models.
         | 
         | If interest rates are higher, then a lump sum upfront payment
         | may be a better bet. This may effect _how_ software is written
         | as well as _how_ it is purchased.
         | 
         | Or we'll just see a steady increase in subscription costs.
        
         | jabbawocky wrote:
         | you just described 99% of internet writing. vague, stating of
         | the obvious.
        
       | CrzyLngPwd wrote:
       | Perhaps the subscription model for banal writing or news that
       | doesn't affect you is coming to end and but not the subscription
       | model.
       | 
       | I mean, who needs to subscribe to a newspaper that is crammed
       | with unactionable whitterings or the views of a single author?
       | 
       | Maybe if it was PS1pa and the author managed to write something
       | useful each month it might represent value for money, but the
       | thought of paying any more for the opinion of a single person
       | seems absurd.
        
       | cole-k wrote:
       | While the piece is thought-provoking, I think that the author
       | would do well to substantiate their claims. Even an interview
       | with some hypothetical "side hustlers" to understand their
       | motivations would be better than guessing why they are on the
       | site.
       | 
       | It kind of seemed like they were saying "it is [or will soon be]
       | unsustainable to try and make a living out of being a Substack
       | writer," but I would want to know how many people enter the
       | platform with that goal in the first place.
       | 
       | Twitch, YouTube, Soundcloud, good-old-fashioned blogging, I'm
       | sure you could name several other pursuits that are in a
       | similarly unprofitable position for the average content creator.
       | I would wager most people don't start out trying to make a living
       | on these platforms.
       | 
       | Maybe the point is that there are people who are just scraping by
       | on these platforms who will soon have the rug pulled from under
       | their feet when consumers wise up to how much money they're
       | throwing away to subscriptions? That didn't come across too
       | clearly to me, though.
        
       | mst wrote:
       | It seems possible that at some point you'll see a hybrid between
       | the NYT and substack models - basically a pre-selected bundle of
       | some subset of a bunch of authors' work where you -also- have an
       | option to subscribe to a particular author directly. I'm sure
       | such things are already possible but the thing I'm thinking of is
       | the bundles not being exclusive, so a piece that's available in
       | 1+ bundles is still also available as part of the full
       | subscription.
       | 
       | (possibly combined with some or all of the options operating on a
       | token model rather than a 'get exactly all of this' one)
       | 
       | Note that I'm only endorsing this so far as it seeming -possible-
       | and not necessarily -good- or -successful-, and assuming somebody
       | does try it your guess is at least as good as mine as to how
       | it'll turn out.
        
         | jon-wood wrote:
         | Depending on who was curating this I'd be up for it, and will
         | now be quite surprised if Substack don't make it happen at some
         | point.
         | 
         | I think there's a lot of value in being able to delegate to
         | someone who knows a particular field the ability to say "hey,
         | these are the people you should be paying attention to". I
         | could totally see this being used both from a "here's people
         | who think like I do" perspective, and others providing a more
         | adversarial version with commentators from all sides of a
         | field.
        
           | mst wrote:
           | They could pretty much do it by having things like the 'for
           | paying subscribers of X' attribute that work as 'also free on
           | B' and 'also for paying subscribers of B' and the bundle
           | could (at least initially) be pretty much just the current
           | substack UI.
           | 
           | I'm sure if substack actually do something like this, they'll
           | give it a little more thought than I just did, of course.
        
         | cole-k wrote:
         | https://setapp.com is one example of a service that does
         | bundling, albeit by offering what seems to be the full features
         | of many things for a single subscription price (instead of your
         | thought of a subset of features). It's not clear to me whether
         | all of the apps offered are subscription-based, though.
         | 
         | It's a model I'd be more willing to try than subscriptions to
         | individual apps, although its OS and app offerings do not align
         | with my interests.
        
           | mst wrote:
           | My thought was to let you have e.g. a book review bundler
           | that got only the review posts from mixed sources and say 1/3
           | of the review posts from ones that are all reviews ... both
           | because that sort of subsetting works better here than it
           | would for apps and because it means that it can make sense to
           | subscribe to both a bundle and a contributor thereto, so
           | neither channel is risking cannibalisation by recommending
           | the other.
        
       | IAmPym wrote:
       | This is absolutely not true for one simple reason:
       | 
       | Subscriptions increase valuation of companies
        
       | coffeebeqn wrote:
       | There are so many different types of subscriptions that it's
       | unhelpful to bunch them together. The monthly box subscription
       | was always a gimmick people were bound to get sick of. Then
       | there's stuff like a gym membership or Amazon prime or game pass.
       | Some offer good value, some bad. I'd imagine the bad value ones -
       | like monthly boxes of random crap you don't need will indeed die
       | off
        
         | Ekaros wrote:
         | Those boxes work when there is some inefficiency to exploit so
         | you get good enough of apparent value. Like there is enough
         | massively discounted stock. But as more of it is eaten or more
         | players enter it will fail. And then you don't likely have big
         | enough scale to get good value specially when you need to do
         | curation, collating and shipping.
         | 
         | Amazon Prime is probably mostly workable model as long as you
         | keep raisin price and making offering worse and including the
         | actual costs in item costs. Or simply don't pay enough to where
         | ever you get content.
        
       | ipqk wrote:
       | lol, on Medium which I get a 50% banner ad asking me subscribe.
        
       | 1-6 wrote:
       | Correction: It's the end of the [unlimited] subscription era.
       | All-you-can-eat is no longer sustainable. Long live subscriptions
       | with monthly tokens that do not roll-over. For example, binge
       | watch all you want, you can but up to 6 a month but you'll pay
       | for > 6. Payment will always be required for Premium content or
       | content augmented with AI.
       | 
       | Micropayments and tokens will gain more adoption but it'll be
       | more like a Costco Membership.
       | 
       | Companies still love the fact that subscriptions give them longer
       | lead time insight into consumer behavior. That part isn't going
       | away anytime soon as investors love that data.
        
       | taurath wrote:
       | It's a bit of an investor trick as recurring revenue is treated
       | as orders of magnitude more important than moment to moment
       | sales. This is for some good reasons but there's also reason to
       | think it's overvalued as every industry has very different rates
       | of subscriber churn.
        
       | airstrike wrote:
       | Unironically posted on Medium
        
       | throwaway4PP wrote:
       | this article reads like it was written by a LLM
       | 
       | "Anyway, we all already know this because we all experience human
       | life in 2023."
        
       | cogs wrote:
       | As an aside: Hardware as a service is annoying and feels
       | horrible, but is probably the only way to achieve the long
       | lifetimes we need for consumer goods in a world where reviews are
       | unreliable and we need to stop wasting resources on planned
       | obsolescence.
        
       | leshokunin wrote:
       | This is probably a victim of DHH posting about their Once
       | business model. Literally everything is a subscription now.
       | Video, music, games. Enterprise software. It's just like your
       | pg&e.
       | 
       | Consumers like it enough. This is just as fruitful as fighting a
       | commodity.
        
       | szundi wrote:
       | You wish. I am in the GPS based fleet management/tracking
       | industry. Running even the most simple system like this is
       | unimaginable to be cheaper than a subscription for a service
       | until you have like 1k vehicles and ok with basically a pickaxe.
       | People take more and more complex and convenient stuff as
       | granted, so we'll have subscriptions and big corporations giving
       | these away for free just to bleed each other out (Thanks though).
        
       | vonnik wrote:
       | I love how the pop up I get from Medium for this piece is telling
       | me to subscribe for $5/mo.
        
       | mrkramer wrote:
       | Maybe it's time for micropayments?
        
         | rebolek wrote:
         | I'm hearing about this for so long, yet never seen it anywhere.
         | When financebros talk about micro-anything, they usually mean
         | something like few hundred or thousand dollars. For me, micro
         | means cents or even less.
        
           | barrysteve wrote:
           | There was a comment on HN a year or mor ago, someone was
           | making good money selling cheap and cheerful $1 (ish) games
           | on Steam.. Steam of course banned micropayments that low.
        
             | Ekaros wrote:
             | https://steamcommunity.com/groups/steamworks/announcements/
             | d...
             | 
             | Minimum normal price is 0.99 and minimum transaction price
             | is 0.49. All things considered they are reasonable limits
             | as those might be actual singular payment transactions.
        
         | TylerE wrote:
         | Literally no one actually wants micropayments. Having ever
         | little event in your life become a payment is true dystopia.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | Yet tech people will insist it's a tech problem.
           | 
           | Clay Shirky basically called it a couple decades ago that
           | there's a mental transaction cost to buying things.
           | 
           | I guess it's sufficiently indirect sometimes that it works.
           | "Hmm. Is it worth it to turn on this light given that it's
           | going to cost me $X cents to have light for the next hour?"
           | 
           | But $1/song only lasted as long as that was the only legal
           | model relative to buying a disc. And 5 cents for an article
           | wouldn't work either.
        
           | mrkramer wrote:
           | >Having ever little event in your life become a payment is
           | true dystopia.
           | 
           | It's already here for decades; each time you use Google or
           | Facebook, you are giving in your privacy for free use of
           | those services. But casual users don't care about their
           | privacy so the ad based business model for Web services will
           | prevail for a very long time.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _each time you use Google or Facebook, you are giving in
             | your privacy for free use of those services_
             | 
             | You decide to use Google or Facebook once or infrequently.
             | That's the transaction cost. After that, it's effortless.
             | 
             | Micropayments involve constant transaction costs. They
             | don't work. A defining pillar of luxury is freedom from
             | transaction costs; excluding those who can pay from your
             | market is garbage economics.
        
       | NooneAtAll3 wrote:
       | I felt like this was a lot of water and not much substance
       | 
       | combine that with +47% being "almost doubling" and graph having
       | one axis going "from easy to hard", while the other "from hard to
       | easy"... and I get totally lost
        
       | psychoslave wrote:
       | I opened the page and got a pop up thrown at my face, with some
       | text I didn't bother to read ending with "$5/month subscription".
        
       | arbuge wrote:
       | "This piece exists thanks to the munificence of my paying
       | newsletter subscribers"
        
         | MichaelZuo wrote:
         | It does seem like a self-parody.
        
         | rebolek wrote:
         | Irony-meter goes really to maximum on this.
        
       | cutler wrote:
       | Please stop posting paywall articles.
        
         | superhumanuser wrote:
         | To prove the point?
        
         | eatonphil wrote:
         | HN is officially ok with it. From the FAQ:                 >
         | Are paywalls ok?       >       > It's ok to post stories from
         | sites with paywalls that have workarounds.
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html
        
         | CatWChainsaw wrote:
         | Firefox with uBO and uMatrix - I didn't hit a paywall.
        
         | passwordoops wrote:
         | It's not a paywall, just a marginally less obnoxious demand to
         | subscribe before seeing the content. At least Substack waits
         | for you to get 3/4 through
        
           | grishka wrote:
           | At least Substack doesn't break if you disable JS for it.
        
             | bilal4hmed wrote:
             | Im not sure what the problem with a paywall is?
             | 
             | Dont want to see ads, care about privacy but also dont want
             | to pay for content ??
        
               | rebolek wrote:
               | If you need to pay for subscription to read about how
               | subscription is ending, that's sort of amusing. Anyway,
               | this article isn't paywalled and can be read without
               | subscription.
        
               | joshjob42 wrote:
               | Ads are annoying, and virtually nothing is valuable
               | enough to bother paying to read a single article for. I
               | subscribe to a number of substacks by writers I know
               | produce reliably good content all the time, but random
               | articles on HN ain't it chief.
        
               | grishka wrote:
               | Implied contracts aren't a thing. If someone sends me
               | some trash along with the content I requested, I'm
               | absolutely free to configure my own device to ignore the
               | trash and only display the useful content.
               | 
               | I've never seen paywalls neither on Medium nor on
               | Substack, but I've seen plenty of annoyances like
               | Substack's "hey, did you know this is a mailing list,
               | subscribe to it" in-your-face modal and Medium's "sign up
               | blah blah" thing that takes up half my viewport area.
        
       | foooorsyth wrote:
       | In the context of software I'll unapologetically defend the
       | subscription model. I'm not maintaining your software forever
       | (when the platform it's on often has breaking changes version to
       | version) without recurring revenue. If I have to only focus on
       | B2B software to make that happen, so be it. Mobile platforms
       | really forced the hands of developers here. Windows will happily
       | run 30 year old software -- you could actually "finish" software
       | and move on to the next project. iOS and Android won't run apps
       | from 5 years ago. Their store policies constantly change and you
       | have to frequently keep up with new agreements lest your store
       | listing be removed. And of course your app will be downranked
       | into oblivion on the store search if you're not charging a fee --
       | why would the App Store promote apps that don't make money for
       | the App Store owners, and why would they promote one-time payment
       | apps over subscription apps?
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | The issue is that iOS and Android require constant updates to
         | apps in the first place. That's the insane state of affairs
         | that needs to change.
         | 
         | That aside, I'm fine with paying a yearly subscription that is
         | roughly 10% of the price I would be willing to pay for a one-
         | time purchase, based on my average personal operational
         | lifetime for an unchanged piece of software. The issue is
         | subscriptions whose prices exceed that.
        
         | lelanthran wrote:
         | > In the context of software I'll unapologetically defend the
         | subscription model. I'm not maintaining your software forever
         | 
         | So ... don't?
         | 
         | It's just one model for selling software. Another one is once-
         | off purchases.
         | 
         | If you can find people to pay you a monthly fee for your
         | application (whether phone, desktop or other), good on you!
         | Someone else may decide to just charge that once-off fee, that
         | you get over 12 months.
         | 
         | After all, even with a subscription model, you aren't going to
         | maintain something forever _unless a significant portion_ of
         | your subscribers remain.
         | 
         | Even if someone is paying you to maintain something forever, be
         | honest, how long will you take their $1.99/m? You need a large
         | enough number of someone's to pay you monthly to maintain that
         | software.
         | 
         | There's risks and trade-offs for both sales models. Charging a
         | small monthly fee makes it easier to acquire users, but that
         | ease means that someone else charging a small monthly fee is
         | losing those users (and one day you'll be that someone else
         | losing users too).
         | 
         | Charging a once-off fee means that you get your money upfront,
         | you have no further costs for that product, and the customer
         | gets no additional value over and above the value they got on
         | day 1. The downside is that you'll make less money off a good
         | product than with a subscription model.
         | 
         | > . Mobile platforms really forced the hands of developers
         | here. Windows will happily run 30 year old software -- you
         | could actually "finish" software and move on to the next
         | project. iOS and Android won't run apps from 5 years ago. Their
         | store policies constantly change and you have to frequently
         | keep up with new agreements lest your store listing be removed.
         | And of course your app will be downranked into oblivion on the
         | store search if you're not charging a fee -- why would the App
         | Store promote apps that don't make money for the App Store
         | owners, and why would they promote one-time payment apps over
         | subscription apps?
         | 
         | It sounds to me like your biggest beef with once-off sales has
         | to do with products that are mobile apps. Maybe you don't
         | already know this, but mobile apps are the worst place to try
         | to make money with creating software products. Mobile apps are
         | complementary to some other product (your bank provides a free
         | app, etc).
         | 
         | If you want to sell software, mobile apps are not the product
         | with which to make money, because you can't count on being the
         | lottery winner that manages to get 10% of whales on your app.
        
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