[HN Gopher] Morocco earthquake kills more than 1,000
___________________________________________________________________
Morocco earthquake kills more than 1,000
Author : geox
Score : 210 points
Date : 2023-09-09 13:40 UTC (9 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.nbcnews.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.nbcnews.com)
| tibbydudeza wrote:
| Earthquakes in Africa is rather unusual - we get some but it is
| more due to underground mining activity than tectonics.
|
| Looking it seems this were the Eurasian plate meets the African
| plate ???.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| Are you sure? Africa is a big continent. There's a lot of
| seismic activity going on in the eastern part of it, there are
| volcanoes etc.
| ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
| I think the Atlas range is still growing. That means plates
| coming together.
|
| I lived in Morocco (and have visited Marrakesh), but that was
| in the late 1960s. I also lived in East Africa, where they
| still have some active vulcanism, but I think things are
| subsiding.
|
| Morocco had a bad earthquake in Agadir, in 1960. A huge
| number of folks died. I think it was mostly poor people, who
| live in rather slapdash shanty towns.
| whimsicalism wrote:
| Having been to some rural regions of the Atlas mountains not so
| long ago, many of the buildings are built onto precipices and do
| not look ready to withstand an earthquake.
| saiya-jin wrote:
| Yes, they dont get earhtquakes often, so nothing is prepared.
| Worst are multistory buildings not up to any quake-resistant
| standards.
|
| Did mt Toubkal hike (highest Atlas mountain) few years ago,
| pretty places, very sad to read all this.
| dmje wrote:
| Same. Loved Toubkal, loved the people, loved Marrakech. So
| sad to see this.
| vkdelta wrote:
| Deepest condolences to one of nicest people on earth. I had to
| been to Morocco on a vacation and the warmth and welcomeness was
| highlight of the trip. On top of that, people of Morocco love
| kids and accommodate a lot.
| turbo_fart wrote:
| You are forgetting how the men are really rapey towards western
| women if they have no men near them and how everyone is trying
| to scam you.
|
| You probably spent most of your time in a resort or fancy
| hotel.
| lnsru wrote:
| It's very politically incorrect. But yeah, things work
| differently in some countries if one does not bring in a bag
| with money or guns.
| jheriko wrote:
| as a north african i second this sentiment, a vile and
| barbaric people for the most part, but will put on a good
| show for the tourists.
| zen_1 wrote:
| "Vile and barbaric" lmao. Is this the Arab equivalent of an
| uncle tom in the wild? `mw twm?
|
| Are there issues with the treatment of women in north
| africa? Sure, and we should address that, but please keep
| your self-loathing to yourself.
| pirate787 wrote:
| It is a form of racism to criticize someone for their
| beliefs as an "uncle tom" or to demand that all members
| of a group share the same opinions.
| zen_1 wrote:
| I'm also north african (in case the arabic in my parent
| comment didn't give it away). Can you even be racist
| against your own broad ethnic group (by asking a member
| of it to not just paint large swathes of it as "vile and
| barbaric", no less)?
|
| You know what? Don't answer that last question.
| mardifoufs wrote:
| We self criticize a lot and honestly tons of moroccans
| (outside the Diaspora, which can be oddly more
| nationalistic than actual people living in Morocco) know
| and will be honest about the flaws of Morocco and
| Moroccans. But honestly even then I never see even the
| most cynical of us call Moroccans "vile". It's just odd
| and not really criticism.
| decremental wrote:
| [dead]
| esel2k wrote:
| Wide statements with just general negative content, totally
| politically incorrect.
|
| I have travelled there and yes if you spend time in the
| tourist places you face scammers often. The contrary is true
| when far away from stops - so I encourage all to discover in
| my opinion the best north africa country.
|
| And a small hint: staying in a resort is probably the last
| way to really understand a country and culture.
| jiofj wrote:
| Heh, I live in Spain, a country that receives a LOT of
| immigration from there, and I couldn't help but think "what
| kind of moroccans has this guy seen?"
| leetcodesucks wrote:
| [dead]
| p5a0u9l wrote:
| I have a stellar contract SDE from Morocco. Aside from the
| humanitarian tragedy of this earthquake, my eyes have been opened
| to the challenges young professionals with Visas face in the US.
| They tend to be ripe for exploitation by hiring firms and
| contract agencies.
| hirako2000 wrote:
| VISAs are a left over abomination of colonialism.
|
| They hold on by keeping people in fear and confusion between
| the removal of borders and human rights to visit and settle in
| any nation.
| slashdev wrote:
| Where did you get your education? Serious question.
|
| Borders have nothing to do with colonialism. There is no
| human right to move and settle where you please, especially
| in this day and age where that entitles you to many social
| services paid for by taxes.
|
| A nation that does not control its borders is no longer a
| nation. No country on earth behaves that way. Not now, nor in
| the past.
| pizza wrote:
| _The U.S. Government sent its first official communication
| to the Sultan of Morocco in December 1780. It read:_
|
| _We the Congress of the 13 United States of North America,
| have been informed of your Majesty's favorable regard to
| the interests of the people we represent, which has been
| communicated by Monsieur Etienne d'Audibert Caille of Sale,
| Consul of Foreign nations unrepresented in your Majesty's
| states. We assure you of our earnest desire to cultivate a
| sincere and firm peace and friendship with your Majesty and
| to make it lasting to all posterity. Should any of the
| subjects of our states come within the ports of your
| Majesty's territories, we flatter ourselves they will
| receive the benefit of your protection and benevolence. You
| may assure yourself of every protection and assistance to
| your subjects from the people of these states whenever and
| wherever they may have it in their power. We pray your
| Majesty may enjoy long life and uninterrupted prosperity._
|
| https://ma.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/policy-
| history/io/
| slashdev wrote:
| I assume you're interpreting that to mean there was
| unrestricted immigration from morroco. I don't interpret
| it that way, I'd need to see more evidence.
| jrmg wrote:
| _A nation that does not control its borders is no longer a
| nation. No country on earth behaves that way. Not now, nor
| in the past._
|
| The world was different, of course, but the USA basically
| (and I thought rather famously) behaved this way until
| around the Civil War period, and it remained relatively
| open until about the First World War.
|
| From the horse's mouth:
|
| https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/our-history/explore-agency-
| hi...
|
| And specifically: https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/our-
| history/overview-of-ins-h... https://www.uscis.gov/about-
| us/our-history/mass-immigration-...
| https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/our-history/overview-of-
| agenc...
| Jcampuzano2 wrote:
| There's no human right to do so simply because societies
| and governments have deemed it such. There's not really any
| decent reason it "shouldn't" be a right for well meaning
| people.
|
| To be clear, I do agree that going somewhere else may grant
| you benefits you wouldn't have had in where you originally
| are from and that's due to taxes and other systems in
| place. But plenty of well meaning people who are skilled
| and willing to contribute to other societies are not
| allowed to do so just because they were born somewhere less
| fortunate or with certain stigmas attached.
|
| Its a complex problem of course, free movement does let
| some bad apples in that can cause a lot of harm. But it can
| go too far in my opinion.
| nicbou wrote:
| The problem of free movement is not bad apples, but
| simply too many apples. Even legal immigration is
| challenging to accommodate as a large influx of new
| residents disrupts everything from housing to culture.
|
| I say this as an immigrant who helps immigrants
| immigtate, so I'm very much pro immigration.
| csomar wrote:
| I think he was questioning Visas and not borders. These are
| not the same thing. You can have tight borders but easy
| visas if the jobs are available. That being said, borders
| are really a new thing. In the past, people gathered in the
| city, but the "nation" didn't really have much oversight of
| what's happening in the forest. Many of the old world
| countries are divided by rivers, mountains and sea.
| slashdev wrote:
| Read it again:
|
| > They hold on by keeping people in fear and confusion
| between the removal of borders and human rights to visit
| and settle in any nation.
|
| You see the word border there.
| proudeu wrote:
| Nations and countries are made up things, you know that?
| They are not naturally human but a social constructs made
| up by those in power to have better grip on other people
| (their serfs) in the past. Usually countries started as
| kingdoms and the premise was clear.
| ithkuil wrote:
| Many societies of the past were conglomerations of tribes
| where each group/tribe had their own hierarchy and the
| various groups interacted with various kinds of hierarchy
| or lack thereof. Think of ancient Gaul or North American
| native nations. Despite them being formally independent
| groups, a common culture united people against what they
| perceived foreign. Gauls resisted Roman invasion, and
| even managed some degree of cohesion under Vercingetorix
| because they felt the threat of the common enemy.
| kriops wrote:
| You should read the Declaration of Independence :)
|
| It _is_ a right to live and settle wherever you please. In
| practice YMMV depending on different states' ability to
| recognize rights, however.
|
| And yes, the Declaration of Independence isn't
| authoritative on the topic of rights, but it is a very
| clear cut explanation of how rights (ought to) work,
| without diving into the philosophy of it.
| janalsncm wrote:
| I don't know enough about history to say how connected
| colonialism and visas are, but it feels deeply unfair that
| citizens of some countries have many visa free countries
| (USA, Japan, Singapore have some of the best passports) while
| citizens in other countries have to deal with a ton of
| paperwork and uncertainty.
| asdswe wrote:
| If you remove borders, you also have to remove social safety
| nets and other things which make rich countries better to
| live in than poor ones.
| delecti wrote:
| There's no inherent truth of the universe that requires
| countries to have such disparate wealth that some are so
| much better to live in. I bet most people arguing for
| removing borders would also argue there should be much
| better global equality.
| andybak wrote:
| So prior to colonialism, there was peaceful free movement of
| populations?
| tpm wrote:
| Not always of whole populations (though often that too) but
| individuals travelled much more freely.
| dijit wrote:
| Not in the majority of Europe, especially places like
| England or Poland which had strict restrictions on what
| serfs could do for hundreds of years.
|
| Part of the reason for Britains diverse regional dialects
| is due to this.
| rendaw wrote:
| That was within the country though, right? Not between
| countries? And this article [1] says enforcement of
| serfdom was localized and costly and there was de facto
| serf mobility.
|
| [1] https://broadstreet.blog/2021/05/07/serfdom-the-
| state-and-th...
| laverya wrote:
| At least part of the reason that individuals traveled
| freely is that only rich individuals traveled.
|
| Paupers from London didn't get on ships to the new world
| - not without selling themselves into indentured
| servitude.
|
| When the economic barriers to migration fell to the point
| that subsistence farmers could travel between continents,
| we were always going to see either an equalization of
| living standards or the rise of political barriers.
| bobthepanda wrote:
| Yes.
|
| Even before the adoption of visas, the traveling
| experience for a first class passenger on a ship was very
| different from third class getting routed via Ellis
| Island in the US.
| csomar wrote:
| I don't know about peaceful but you could move. There were
| no visas and in fact no passports. Though, trying to get
| inside a "city" (ie: citadel) might be tricky. I guess they
| used gifts before to convince the other party.
|
| That being said, if you settled somewhere in some large
| empty land, no one will complain.
| andybak wrote:
| > That being said, if you settled somewhere in some large
| empty land, no one will complain.
|
| That's because any empty land would probably be entirely
| unsuitable for a settlement.
|
| Obviously we haven't specified a period in history but
| this all sounds suspiciously rose-tinted to me.
| throw_m239339 wrote:
| > VISAs are a left over abomination of colonialism.
|
| This is patently false. Borders and border control are as
| ancient as human societies themselves and were not invented
| by those you deem "colonialists", which for you I bet doesn't
| include the Arabs and Persians themselves colonizing
| Europe... Or the mongols...
| leetcodesucks wrote:
| [dead]
| skyyler wrote:
| Ignoring Arab colonisation of Europe is something most
| Europeans do.
|
| Why do so many nouns in Spanish start with a?
| gedy wrote:
| > human rights to visit and settle in any nation.
|
| Well when Europeans move to other countries en masse (even
| without violence), it's called colonialism too.
| lemper wrote:
| [flagged]
| mcpackieh wrote:
| My understanding is that earthquake resistant buildings should
| be able to withstand up to 7 with negligible to slight damage.
| Hopefully governments take building codes more seriously.
|
| https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/earthquake-intensity-scale
| hutzlibu wrote:
| Morocco is quite poor in rural areas. You have to be able to
| fund a solid building and regulations help little with that.
| Otherwise you just create lots of corruption.
| Retric wrote:
| Corrupt is a big deal, but not insurmountable. Convincing
| people that traditional methods aren't earthquake resistant
| is one way to sidestep the issue.
|
| It's not particularly expensive to build somewhat
| earthquake resistant structures. Quite a lot of it comes
| down to building techniques rather than significant effort
| or expensive materials.
|
| Multi story stone building generally do extremely poorly,
| but there's a few cheap methods to significantly improve
| things such as timber bracing. The goal isn't to make the
| building survive unscathed but to minimize casualties.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "Convincing people that traditional methods aren't
| earthquake resistant is one way to sidestep the issue."
|
| Actually, the really old traditional buildings in morroco
| are quite earthquake resistant, because they are still
| standing and it was not the first earthquake there.
|
| It's the cheaply build new houses, that are the problem
| and yes, now is the time to give awareness that you
| should not build too cheaply and what one can do even
| with limited ressources. But I fear that the main
| response will be literal death penalty for some building
| company owners (morroco is a quite absolutistic monarchy)
| and otherwise not much change.
| Retric wrote:
| While many older structures survive, you don't see all of
| those structures built using similar methods that didn't.
|
| Morocco has had similarly devastating earthquakes in 2004
| (6.3) and 1960 (5.8) that killed ~13,000, but the region
| gets vastly larger earthquakes. In 1969 a 7.8 occurred
| far enough offshore to only kill 13.
| lemper wrote:
| in tfa, houses in the rural areas were the one which took the
| brunt. also, it's a random poor country, mate. there's a
| whole world outside the states which has their own situations
| and other things to be prioritised.
| propercoil wrote:
| [flagged]
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| Oh?
|
| Name? Links? (Ideally in English.)
| propercoil wrote:
| https://twitter.com/hogrbe
| throw_m239339 wrote:
| Is this documented scientifically that planet positions can
| affect earth seismic activity? Like the moon affects sea
| tides?
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| One of his tweets:
|
| _Yes, there is much resistance within the scientific
| community regarding the influence of the planets and the
| Moon. But there 's no extended research that 'disproves'
| it. It's merely an assumption. In fact, a scientific
| paper in Nature suggests otherwise._
|
| https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1622641784869322754
| hk__2 wrote:
| "there is much resistance within the scientific
| community" is the usual euphemism used by pseudo-
| scientists to justify their claim. There's absolutely no
| evidence that you can predict earthquakes by looking at
| the positions of the planets, and this "researcher" is
| known for his very vague "predictions" that sometimes
| appear to be true, sometimes not. It's the scientific
| equivalent of a broken clock.
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| I know exactly nothing about this guy. I'm the person who
| asked for a name.
|
| I was just quoting his own Twitter feed where he himself
| indicates this is not scientifically proven.
|
| He apparently calls it _research._ I 'm personally fine
| with that and followed him before it was said here he
| predicts this based on planetary influences (and hadn't
| noticed it myself).
| hk__2 wrote:
| > I know exactly nothing about this guy. I'm the person
| who asked for a name.
|
| I know that and I'm just commenting his claim; I'm not
| attacking you in any way.
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| Okay, for the record, you are officially an antibeleiver
| who thinks simply asking the question and investigating
| it and trying to answer it makes one a nutter.
|
| For the record, I hate this out-of-hand dismissal of
| anyone who asks "What if..." about anything outside the
| current Overton Window.
| cjaybo wrote:
| You seem to be reading into and responding somewhat
| defensively to subtext that doesn't appear to exist
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| You appear to be making this personal for no reason
| whatsoever.
| Apocryphon wrote:
| We are hardly living in incredulous times.
| Capricorn2481 wrote:
| He just said he wasn't attacking you personally, but the
| fact that it's flying over your head implies that you
| actually do believe this stuff.
|
| What in the world is an "antibeliever?" I find it kind of
| telling you chose this phrase instead of anti science.
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| Antibeliever is someone who firmly believes the opposite
| though it's not actually scientifically proven.
|
| For example, people who say Bigfoot or aliens are
| absolutely not real and anyone who believes in such is
| clearly a loon rather than saying "It's unproven and
| seems extremely unlikely."
| kranke155 wrote:
| This could have been said before every major scientific
| discovery.
|
| The scientific community must be wrong by definition if
| science is to learn something new. It's more than proven
| that things most scientists find absurd and impossible
| end up being doable and proven.
|
| I'd give this person more leeway. He's not reading
| astrology, he's working patterns and clearly has not
| determined whether his research is accurate yet or not.
| He himself says there's not enough data in some regards.
|
| So what is your resistance based off outside of reflexive
| skepticism ?
| hk__2 wrote:
| > So what is your resistance based off outside of
| reflexive skepticism ?
|
| This has been debunked over and over [1][2][3][4] and is
| by no mean different from fortune telling. He has not
| published a single paper nor has detailed its method,
| which is summarized by various sources as making a lot of
| predictions about earthquakes in regions that are known
| to often have earthquakes. Most of these predictions end
| up wrong, but we only talk about the "right" ones.
|
| [1]: https://www.newarab.com/news/arab-osint-platform-
| debunks-dut...
|
| [2]: https://www.skeptic.org.uk/2023/02/did-earthquake-
| guru-frank...
|
| [3]:
| https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6469019/Top-
| Austral...
|
| [4]: https://www.snopes.com/news/2017/03/01/dutch-
| earthquake-enth...
| kranke155 wrote:
| Ok so this is far more substantial. Thanks for sharing.
| hutzlibu wrote:
| "It's more than proven that things most scientists find
| absurd and impossible end up being doable and proven"
|
| Are there many examples besides quantum physics? And
| eventually and in quite short time, they made their way
| into the mainstream science, because they modelled the
| world better. So if this guy can show that his approach
| can reliable help with predication of earthquakes, he
| will win. Simple as that. So far I am not convinced, but
| sure, the moon and the planets are a real force.
| kranke155 wrote:
| Tectonic plates were considered ridiculous. Evolution was
| debated for decades. Galileo went on trial. Pasteur afaik
| didn't find it easy to convince people. Virtually all
| breakthroughs I can think of, "eminent men" came and told
| everyone it was hogwash, till it wasn't.
|
| That's not say you should defend bad science. Just that
| great Science might appear like nonsense - at first.
| hk__2 wrote:
| No, not at all. This "researcher" is a fraud.
| k_ wrote:
| That his research subject has not given "proper"
| scientific results yet (or ever) doesn't make him a
| fraud. We wouldn't go far if researchers could only
| research proven concepts.
| hk__2 wrote:
| > That his research subject has not given "proper"
| scientific results yet (or ever) doesn't make him a
| fraud. We wouldn't go far if researchers could only
| research proven concepts.
|
| The problem is we're looking at the correct predictions
| only. He's a broken clock, he "predicted" numerous
| earthquakes in various regions and only a small number
| ended up true.
|
| > The idea that planetary alignments can predict
| earthquakes has been long rebuffed by scientists. The
| USGS has stated that neither it nor any other scientist
| is able to predict a specific earthquake, but that it can
| calculate the probability of future temblors. Andrew
| Michael, a geophysicist for the agency, called alignment-
| based predictions "easy to refute" in a statement sent to
| Snopes.
|
| https://www.snopes.com/news/2017/03/01/dutch-earthquake-
| enth...
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| Confirmation bias is a known human weakness. Based on
| what little I've seen, he does not appear to be guilty of
| it. If other people are overemphasizing his "correct"
| predictions and ignoring his incorrect ones, this should
| not be conflated with his position.
|
| He seems fairly reasonable at first glance.
| gruez wrote:
| >Confirmation bias is a known human weakness. Based on
| what little I've seen, he does not appear to be guilty of
| it.
|
| I scrolled through his timeline and found plenty of
| predictions that failed to materialize
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446472
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| I've only just learned of his existence. I have no idea
| why he would publish something like that.
|
| Perhaps it's part of his process for sorting out what
| works.
|
| I'm disinclined to draw any conclusion one way or another
| at this point in time about his work. I lack sufficient
| information and I'm confident quickly scanning his
| Twitter feed won't adequately fill in the gaps in my
| knowledge.
| gruez wrote:
| >Perhaps it's part of his process for sorting out what
| works.
|
| He's been doing this for years and has been going on the
| media circuit touting his predictions. He even works at
| (founded?) an organization that claims to predict
| earthquakes. This is obviously not a case of some
| scientist "sorting out what works".
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| Coolios.
|
| I've just learned of his existence. I reserve the right
| to draw my own conclusions in my own time and do not feel
| compelled to cave to social pressure to spout the "party
| line".
|
| Thank you.
| gruez wrote:
| >I reserve the right to draw my own conclusions in my own
| time and do not feel compelled to cave to social pressure
| to spout the "party line".
|
| What a bizarre statement to make after a seemingly
| reasonable series of exchanges. If you're out of
| arguments but don't want to change your mind, just admit
| so. Invoking some sort of persecution complex to justify
| it is just baffling. Nobody is demanding that you
| immediately change your mind or publicly recant your
| beliefs.
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| What part of "I haven't made up my mind, I've only just
| learned he exists" are you failing to grasp?
| gruez wrote:
| > What part of "I haven't made up my mind, I've only just
| learned he exists" are you failing to grasp?
|
| I'm not sure why you think I'm "failing to grasp" that
| part. My previous comment literally says
|
| >If you're out of arguments but don't want to change your
| mind, just admit so.
|
| The part that was "bizzare" to me was
|
| >Invoking some sort of persecution complex to justify it
| is just baffling. Nobody is demanding that you
| immediately change your mind or publicly recant your
| beliefs.
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| I said several replies to you ago and have reiterated
| that position:
|
| _I 'm disinclined to draw any conclusion one way or
| another at this point in time about his work. I lack
| sufficient information and I'm confident quickly scanning
| his Twitter feed won't adequately fill in the gaps in my
| knowledge._
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446779
|
| Changing one's mind requires you to first have a
| position. You keep arguing for me to see it your way, as
| if I believe the opposite to be true. I don't.
| krapp wrote:
| https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/24846/do
| -pl...
| JPLeRouzic wrote:
| It looks like yes if I understand correctly this usgs.gov
| link.
|
| https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-
| affec...
|
| Or a similar idea about a correlation between solar
| activity and earthquakes:
|
| https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67860-3
| perihelions wrote:
| - _" It looks like yes if I understand correctly this
| usgs.gov link"_
|
| The USGS answer is a definitive "no" with regards to
| planets:
|
| - _" The relative amount of influence is proportional to
| the objects mass, and inversely proportional to the third
| power of its distance from the earth"_
|
| That's (inter-planet) tidal forces weaker than 10^-6 the
| strength of the moon's.
| JPLeRouzic wrote:
| I am sorry, even if English is not my mother tongue, this
| article certainly does not give a "no" to interactions
| between planets and sun.
|
| Actually the sentence just before the one you cite says:
|
| " _The moon, sun, and other planets have an influence on
| the earth in the form of perturbations (small changes) to
| the gravitational field._ "
|
| And anyway if you search for other scientific articles on
| this topic, you can find at least a handful of them.
|
| Then you can criticize the quality of this research
| (single author, unknown univ, etc) but it exists.
|
| This discussion reminds me how the plaque tectonic theory
| was rejected for 40 years.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_drift#Rejection
| _of...
| [deleted]
| tekla wrote:
| Are you fucking kidding me?
| kranke155 wrote:
| Why? He was relatively accurate. We have records of it.
| What is your skepticism based off outside of resistance
| to the new ?
| oh_sigh wrote:
| Well, does he have some theory how planetary positions
| play a role in earthquakes, specifically how their
| positions could lead to an earthquake in turkey but not
| peru? Is just saying "there will be an earthquake
| sometime in this earthquake prone region" really that
| insightful?
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| FYI: They essentially murdered Semmelweis for not having
| a theory for how washing hands after examining cadavers
| and before delivering babies could save lives. He sadly
| came up with this nutty idea a few decades before we had
| germ theory and such.
|
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis
| dotnet00 wrote:
| There's a difference between that, where a small
| additional step improved safety, and this, where the
| credibility of the prediction would need to be assessed
| to be able to mobilize the wide response which would be
| needed ahead of time.
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| Hopefully one difference is no one locks him up in an
| insane asylum and beats him to death for doing the
| research.
| tptacek wrote:
| That's, obviously, not what happened.
| dotnet00 wrote:
| Yeah I would hope that we've at least moved past that.
| Apocryphon wrote:
| It reads like he had a cognitive degenerative disorder,
| not that he was committed to an institution for
| questioning the scientific establishment or whatever
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| That's not how it sounds to me at all. It sounds to me
| like no matter what he did, he couldn't escape open
| hostility to his idea -- based on research where he was a
| physician in charge of two clinics with different
| mortality rates -- and was hounded and then punished for
| failing to cave to social pressure to recant his "nutty"
| idea.
|
| The world was smaller then. Getting away from toxic
| social patterns was likely even harder than it is now.
| hk__2 wrote:
| FYI that was 200 years ago.
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| Things haven't really changed all that much.
| callalex wrote:
| This guy has predicted about 30 of the last 2 earthquakes.
| That is less than useless.
| 0xDEF wrote:
| Is there any proof that he is not just predicting a ton of
| different earh quakes and then deletes them when he is
| wrong?
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| Thank you.
| gruez wrote:
| >Frank Hoogerbeets @hogrbe
|
| >Feb 3
|
| >Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this
| region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon).
| #deprem
|
| The earthquake happened 3 days after. This seems prescient,
| until you realize the wording suggests an ambiguous
| timeline. The area is a known fault zone, one happening
| "sooner or later" isn't exactly some deep insight. If he
| knew about that specific earthquake, why didn't he give a
| more specific prediction of "within the next week"?
| haunter wrote:
| He did the same 3 days ago before the earthquake
|
| >A few days ago a fluctuations chart was published
| marking the region west of Portugal, which is an
| approximation.
|
| https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1699414822008348968
| gruez wrote:
| Again, this seems like confirmation bias. From the same
| tweet:
|
| >I guess #Spain and #Italy should also be on extra alert.
|
| He warned Spain and Italy, but not Morocco? Also for
| whatever reason he warned italy even though it's not a
| region marked by the map. Why?
|
| Also, if you scroll through his timeline, it's littered
| with predictions that didn't come to pass:
|
| https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1633919887243370497
|
| https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1630518718886191104
|
| https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1625941900631867395
|
| https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1623399446573719557
| freecodyx wrote:
| I felt it, it was terrible experience, it was so strong that it
| was felt across wide regions. Luckily the epicenter was a bit far
| from major cities. At first i did not realize why my chair was
| shaking as i was using headphones, then for at least 10sec i
| couldn't even stand. We spent the night outside
| npsomaratna wrote:
| I remember the first earthquake I experienced. Same feeling:
| everything around me started shaking; for several seconds, I
| couldn't figure out what was happening; and then it suddenly
| hit me: it's an earthquake.
|
| (I'm from a country where earthquakes do not occur. For some
| reason, I always thought that earthquakes were accompanied by,
| well, movie-style earthquake sounds. It was kinda eye-opening
| to realize that earthquakes are silent...)
| mh- wrote:
| Depends on the type of earthquake, the composition of the
| ground near you, etc.
|
| Where I live now, weak earthquakes can sometimes almost
| _only_ be heard, along with a brief shake you 'd easily
| mistake for someone slamming a door.
| elliotec wrote:
| Earthquakes are not silent. I'm not sure where you
| experienced yours but earthquakes are deafeningly loud.
| Movie-style earthquake sounds don't even do it justice.
| parabyl wrote:
| I heard a very small one somewhere that really isn't meant
| to get them, through a TV show in earbuds. Perhaps the
| volume has something to do with what's happening beneath
| the surface vs magnitude? In our case, as far as I know,
| the epicentre was a ~5h drive away (and out at sea), but it
| sounded about the same as loud subs at a concert to me.
| victorbjorklund wrote:
| I was in an earthquake in the balkans last year. Didnt hear
| a thing. Everything vibrated and some stuff fell down
| though. But it was still quite far from the epicenter
| (perhaps that is where you hear it).
| npsomaratna wrote:
| I was in an apartment building in Santiago, Chile--in fact,
| pretty much all of the earthquakes I experienced were in
| Santiago. Never heard any (out of the normal) sounds. Is
| that because the buildings were built to handle
| earthquakes?
| notnmeyer wrote:
| not universally true.
| serf wrote:
| the experience isn't the same across the board.
|
| I was in a heavily affected part of LA during the
| Northridge quakes. It did 50b in damage, killed people,
| injured thousands. The most significant noise I remember
| was the cacophony of car alarms and people screaming.
|
| Our house didn't collapse. If it had, i'd probably remember
| _that_ noise.
|
| Memory is faulty, so who knows. Maybe it was loud, but
| that's not what I remember, so I can understand why the
| descriptions vary so broadly.
|
| No good footage of the Northridge event is really very
| available, but there is _plenty_ of detailed (and
| unfortunately graphic) footage of the 2015 Nepal event, the
| 'sounds of chaos' far and wide out-match the sound of the
| low rumbling quake -- but that could be a deception of the
| microphones; I would imagine most of them lack the range to
| properly capture the low roar of an earthquake.
| fragmede wrote:
| Northridge was also really early in the morning (4:30
| am), so it's possible you were sleeping during the actual
| earthquake.
| klysm wrote:
| Silent? I think they are the exact opposite. I experienced a
| very very minor earthquake in New England and it sounded like
| a truck roaring down the road
| [deleted]
| DoreenMichele wrote:
| I've been in two significant earthquakes. I don't recall
| hearing anything either time.
|
| I think it probably depends on a lot of factors?
| victorbjorklund wrote:
| I was in the earthquake in the balkans last year and didnt
| hear anything. And while I wasnt in the center everything
| in the apartment was shaking and some stuff fell down.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| I have never experienced an earthquake directly, but I once
| visited life safety learning center at Ikebukuro Fire Station
| in Tokyo and had the opportunity to experience the Great East
| Japan Earthquake of 2011 on a simulator there. Even if you are
| prepared for it, it is terrible. It's hard to imagine how
| people living ordinary lives feel when something like this
| starts.
| Aeolun wrote:
| In Japan, mostly wondering if this will be the big one? After
| a decade of minor earthquakes they're mostly annoying.
|
| It has given me a lot of faith in the construction of my
| house though.
| ivan_gammel wrote:
| The amazing ordinariness of the disaster. I wonder if the
| residents of settlements around the Gulf of Naples also
| normalized the smoke over Vesuvius after Pompeii and
| Herculaneum were destroyed? ,,Is it the big one?"
| formvoltron wrote:
| I spend a lot of time in Morocco. I always wondered what an
| earthquake might do because they quite often build with simple
| cinderblock. The government actually sort of encourages it
| because official land ownership is not the norm and sometimes the
| government will raze buildings that were built without proper
| permits. Of course people couldn't really afford earthquake proof
| houses anyways. Sad situation all around. Was planning to go this
| winter, but I don't want to be a tourist in the midst of
| calamity.
| whimsicalism wrote:
| > Was planning to go this winter, but I don't want to be a
| tourist in the midst of calamity.
|
| I'm very conflicted on this one, it seems like this is the
| intuition I (along with a lot of people) want to reach for but
| is that actually the most helpful thing?
| prmoustache wrote:
| In 1960 an earthquake in Agadir claimed almost half of the
| city's population. That gives you an idea about how badly
| prepared they were.
|
| City has been rebuild (except from the hill were you can see
| the memorial words at night) supposedly under earthquake sagety
| norms but that isn't the case of the rest of the country.
| zmgsabst wrote:
| Just putting out there that it might still be a good time to
| go:
|
| I can't speak to Morocco, but a number of SE Asian places
| derive significant incomes from tourism -- and losing that
| after natural disasters compounds the problem.
|
| There's a possibility that visiting Morocco is bringing needed
| money into their community (as long as you're not going to
| areas short on supplies). You need money to rebuild.
|
| And tourism is ~7% of Morocco's GDP (as of a few years ago).
|
| https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/e3197856-en/index.html?i...
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