[HN Gopher] When tech says 'no'
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       When tech says 'no'
        
       Author : mooreds
       Score  : 54 points
       Date   : 2023-09-04 20:14 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.ben-evans.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.ben-evans.com)
        
       | doctor_eval wrote:
       | > The Canadian government told Google and Meta that if a link to
       | a newspaper story ever appears in search, or if a journalist ever
       | posts a link to a story on Facebook, then they have to pay the
       | newspaper for sending business to the newspaper.
       | 
       | This is first-class bullshit. Google and Meta made their money by
       | co-opting third party content, concentrating audiences into their
       | own portal, and selling advertising against it - often through
       | algorithmic dark patterns. This is a disreputable business model
       | that's as old as iframes, but somehow its acceptable for these
       | gigacompanies to do it.
       | 
       | To characterise this as "they have to pay the newspaper for
       | sending business to the newspaper" is just buying into the kind
       | of self-interested "no" that the article purports to discuss.
       | They systematically took these audiences away from the content
       | providers, and then started to charge a premium to the providers
       | for placement in the algorithms. Meta has been the most egregious
       | of these but Google has been moving in this direction for years.
       | 
       | These companies have more than enough money to pay for their
       | content, but that would break their protection racket business
       | model.
        
         | vkou wrote:
         | > They systematically took these audiences away and then charge
         | a price to get the audiences to return.
         | 
         | How exactly does the existence of search take audiences away?
         | 
         | Or do you mean the 15-word clickbait headline blurb takes
         | audiences away? If your news story isn't worth reading after
         | reading the headline, it's probably not worth reading.
        
           | jay_kyburz wrote:
           | Google thinks its worth including in the index.
        
             | falcor84 wrote:
             | What kind of argument is that? Google's mission was
             | literally to "organize the world's information" - of course
             | they would include newspapers in the index, irrespective of
             | any opinion about the articles.
        
         | smoldesu wrote:
         | > They systematically took these audiences away from the
         | content providers
         | 
         | Let's not get carried away here. These newspaper businesses
         | _choose_ to upload their content to the open web. By making and
         | distributing public links, they are accepting the fact that
         | others will do the same. They didn 't take anything that wasn't
         | on the table.
        
           | jay_kyburz wrote:
           | Posting your content on the open web doesn't give permission
           | for somebody to lift the content from your site and display
           | it next to their own ads.
           | 
           | (I don't know why I'm defending news here, they could have
           | fixed it themselves years ago. )
        
             | slyall wrote:
             | Come on, when you say "lift your content" you mean show a
             | headline, a picture and maybe the top line of the story
             | with a huge link back to the original website?
             | 
             | 90% of the time that data is published as "Open graph"
             | format by the website so it looks nice. The website is
             | going out of it's way to make links to it on facebook look
             | pretty.
        
         | tomComb wrote:
         | The law is essentially a tax on links. His characterization of
         | it is accurate and is the same as any in depth analysis I've
         | seen. If you want a really good, independent analysis read
         | Michael Geist, who is a law professor at Ottawa.
         | 
         | Sounds like you are letting your hatred of meta and Google warp
         | your analysis of this bill (which is what the government is
         | counting on).
        
         | natdempk wrote:
         | Or: newspapers opted into the Google + Facebook ecosystem
         | because it was beneficial for them to do so, customers choose
         | to use Google and Facebook because they provide tangible user
         | benefits, and competition is just a click away yet most
         | newspapers fail to deliver a competitive value prop to
         | visit/subscribe directly compared to the traffic they get from
         | Google/Facebook. The reality is that the newspapers derive
         | great value from Google/Facebook traffic (lets them get more ad
         | money + subscribers) whereas the value of the newspapers to
         | Google/Facebook is marginal as they are just more content in a
         | feed/aggregator. There's no racket going on here just
         | incentives/products/reality all around. If anything the
         | Canadian government's asks are the real racket/shakedown.
         | 
         | I recommend reading this article from Stratechery if you want a
         | more thorough breakdown of the incentives from when Australia
         | tried to do something similar:
         | https://stratechery.com/2020/australias-news-media-bargainin...
        
           | riku_iki wrote:
           | > and competition is just a click away yet most newspapers
           | fail to deliver a competitive value prop
           | 
           | there are many points where big tech abuses their
           | monopolistic advantage making competition not fair.
        
             | natdempk wrote:
             | I don't disagree there are some instances of this in other
             | areas, but in the case of links to news websites I don't
             | think there's a meaningful argument against customers
             | choosing which URL to visit as it relates to competition.
        
               | riku_iki wrote:
               | fb+google have monopoly on links discovery, customers
               | can't open news URL unless visit google or fb and watch
               | all their ads and give them data.
        
               | vkou wrote:
               | That's bad behaviour against users, not bad behaviour
               | against newspapers.
        
               | riku_iki wrote:
               | For newspapers, datapoint would be to check how many
               | users click on URL after reading title + citation at
               | google or fb.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | There are legitimate criticsms to be made about those
             | practices, but which exact anti-competitive practices are
             | employed by Google/Bing against newspapers, in particular?
        
         | kaoD wrote:
         | Then how come the media backtracked this exact law in my
         | country (which actually came into effect) as soon as they saw
         | their audience plummet?
        
         | summerlight wrote:
         | > They systematically took these audiences away from the
         | content providers
         | 
         | It sounds like those audiences have an equivalent chance of
         | organically discovering those news without centralized search
         | engines or news feed systems? Then what's the value of those
         | systems? If they don't provide any values, then why don't those
         | audiences just go to the new website instead of clicking a link
         | from Google/Facebook/whatever.
        
         | Affric wrote:
         | And only made possible by the fact that levels of neutrality
         | were enforced lower in the stack. These tech giants would not
         | have been possible if the telecoms companies had the power to
         | leverage their platforms for advertising.
         | 
         | That's not to say the social media model wasn't revolutionary.
         | It was like the emergence of the Gnathostomata. But it seems
         | crazy that people's online identities are tied directly to the
         | companies trying to manipulate them.
        
         | ta8645 wrote:
         | If you are correct, then those newspaper businesses will now
         | enjoy an economic upturn, since Google and Meta no longer allow
         | links to them on their platforms. But I think we'll see it hurt
         | the Canadian businesses instead. At the very least, it will hit
         | the small independent companies very hard, since it was the
         | primary method readers found them in the first place. This may
         | have the unfortunate side effect of reducing the number of
         | players who can meaningfully contribute to public discourse in
         | Canada.
        
       | tomComb wrote:
       | The move away from globalization has had an unfortunate side
       | effect: greater political corruption, where local politicians
       | enact laws for the benefit of their local corporate buddies, and
       | pretend (usually successfully) that it is an act of nationalism
       | and standing up to big tech.
       | 
       | That's what happened here in Canada with Bill c-18, as mentioned
       | in the article. It's been rather sickening to watch the
       | government defend this bizarre law that is little more then a
       | shake down for their buddies at bell and Rogers.
        
         | lifeisstillgood wrote:
         | Who are bell and rogers? Some sort of newspaper firm? Plus
         | while corruption is possible, protectionism is the less greasy
         | term, and equally likely to be driving things
        
           | grzm wrote:
           | I assume Bell Telephone (and its descendants) and Rogers
           | Communications
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogers_Communications)
        
           | tomComb wrote:
           | They are the dominant telecom companies, but they are much
           | more than that here and have had the politicians in their
           | pockets, protecting them from competition and funneling tax-
           | payers money to them, for years.
           | 
           | You might be puzzled that I mention them in relation to a
           | bill that is supposed to be for journalism - but the official
           | analysis of this bill confirms that the majority of the money
           | actually goes to them. That is normal here.
        
         | Apocryphon wrote:
         | This has always followed protectionism, I'd guess. Really the
         | solution would have been to socialize the domestic losses
         | caused by globalization (retraining workers, etc.), but there
         | seems to be no interest or political will towards doing that.
        
       | colmmacc wrote:
       | I spent a few years in Ireland and the Netherlands lobbying
       | against insecure voting machines. I had so many conversations
       | with politicians and civil servants where these effects were in
       | abundance. In each country I was representing a group that
       | included the most eminent and experienced computer scientists in
       | the country. Whenever we briefed someone for the first time, it
       | would only take a minute or two to cover how without a voter-
       | verified paper audit trail, no-one knew how to build a system
       | that provided anonymity, verifiability, and resistance to voter
       | coercion and vote selling. But it just never clicked, so many of
       | them refused to believe that we couldn't simply "nerd harder".
       | And of course, there was no shortage of charlatans who would tell
       | them that _they_ could solve it.
       | 
       | In Ireland, we put enough pressure on the politicians for them to
       | create a cross-body commission to investigate. Because anyone
       | could make detailed submissions, and because the commission
       | treated these submissions like the clerks of the Supreme Court
       | treat amicus briefs; it was pretty effective. The commission
       | ended up pausing, and ultimately abandoning, the rollout. Ever
       | since I've learned to appreciate any avenues to "de-politicize" a
       | controversy and get it to that kind of body.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | lifeisstillgood wrote:
         | How did you get that body accepted as an idea as opposed to a
         | "kick into the long grass" solution?
        
         | jacquesm wrote:
         | That means you know Rop :)
        
         | kemotep wrote:
         | The verifiability is the biggest one. One could conceivably
         | develop a voting system that had perfect accountability,
         | secrecy, and integrity, but would be far far more difficult to
         | work out by hand. A zero knowledge roll up is not something
         | your average poll worker could work out on scratch paper. Paper
         | ballots counted by hand can and can achieve all the things we
         | desire in election systems.
        
         | hu3 wrote:
         | You should go to Brazil and try your luck there:
         | 
         | https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/06/in-a-blow-to-e-v...
         | 
         | From what I gather they banned any paper trail verification.
         | Putting 100% trust in digital registry of the votes.
         | 
         | Must be the first unhackable system in history. /s
        
       | dataflow wrote:
       | > we can make it secure, or we can let law enforcement have
       | access, but that means the Chinese can get in too
       | 
       | How is this in category 3? Give decryption keys to your own
       | government and not the others. I get it if you think it'll
       | require more opsec from your government than you might trust them
       | with, or that it'll have other negative effects (see: category
       | 2), but how is this _physically impossible_ (category 3)?
        
         | falcor84 wrote:
         | I would assume that the issue is that the mere idea of
         | decryption keys that can be "given" means there is no end-to-
         | end encryption.
        
           | dataflow wrote:
           | That can't be what they're saying, since asking for "let us
           | access this" is already assuming no end-to-end encryption.
           | The other governments would have nothing to do with the
           | argument in that case.
        
         | benedictevans wrote:
         | If you give the key to every government that demands it (USA,
         | UK, France, Germany, Japan... ), and every agency (CIA, NSA,
         | FBI, DHS, DEA...) then how long will that remain secure? The
         | key will leak and then you have no security.
        
           | dataflow wrote:
           | You only give it to the government entities your country is
           | asking you to. Heck, you could even encrypt each user's data
           | with their own government's key.
        
       | naetd wrote:
       | The first type of 'no' is summarized as just being annoying to
       | implement and not making a big difference, but I think it can be
       | a lot deeper and more consequential than that.
       | 
       | There can be regulation that _will_ damage a companies profits,
       | but also provides positives to public health or other beneficial
       | outcomes. Deeply profitable companies will fight tooth and nail
       | against these regulations even if they are full aware of the
       | damage they are causing. They will come up with as many
       | convincing sounding reasons to say  "no" as possible in the name
       | of those immense profits they enjoy, and use techniques like
       | expensive lobbying, sponsoring pseudoscientific studies, running
       | ads, play up fears about economic damage or other negative
       | outcomes of the policy, etc. They try to make it sound like the
       | second or third kinds of "no" in the article and paint it as a
       | bad idea, or impossible to do, or anything else they can to
       | prevent the regulation. And if a certain individual at that
       | company doesn't want to fight for their unethical profit, they'll
       | be swiftly replaced with someone who will.
       | 
       | The obvious (non tech) example is something like the tobacco
       | industry, which spent millions on manipulating public and policy
       | opinion using misleading scientific sounding language or studies
       | to prevent or delay regulation despite being fully aware of the
       | many health detriments of smoking. Public health has been
       | significantly improved as a result of smoking reduction,
       | restrictions on where you can smoke in public spaces, age
       | restrictions, whatever.
       | 
       | I think there is a lot of this currently in companies profiting
       | off social media, oil and gas, and selling user data.
        
         | lifeisstillgood wrote:
         | I think there is a good ole 2x2 grid here.
         | 
         | The socially positive nature of the industry on one axis and
         | the degree of strong completion on the other.
         | 
         | So we can have say Retail food stores, sainsbury's and tesco,
         | that deliver mostly positive things (food!) in a highly
         | competitive manner.
         | 
         | We can also see positive industries (water / sewage) that have
         | terrible competitive landscapes (fundamentally monopolies/
         | utilities). These need to be regulated differently - ie with
         | hands firmly clasped round the throat of all participants.
         | 
         | Bad industries and bad competition looks like the illegal drugs
         | trade (I personally think the cut throat nature of retail
         | stores is as literal cut throat as we want. When the completion
         | stops focusing on making the product better and starts focusing
         | on killing the other stores employees we are not seeing
         | improved markets
         | 
         | And your example was bad industry / good competition-
         | cigarettes are a good example here.
         | 
         | I think it's worth adding a third dimension to the grid - time
         | and future shape. The retail food model is a good one but over
         | time we can see the effect on out of town car parks, the
         | urbanisation vs wqlkability etc etc. Intervening in how stores
         | advertise the price of milk won't help this. But neither will
         | "nerd harder" - there is no solution to "this business model if
         | continued will go the wrong way" that does not involve chnaging
         | the business model - ie charging for car parking space or
         | something.
         | 
         | Anyway, it struck me as a useful simple graph. As business
         | models move to different parts of grid they get regulated
         | differently, and adding time/dependencies in means we can shape
         | the results.
         | 
         | But in the end I am arguing for smart proactive interventionist
         | government.
         | 
         | Let governments be governments
        
         | mdgrech23 wrote:
         | 100% - people don't realize what kind of mastermind bullshit
         | companies come up with to keep the profits rolling in nevermind
         | the damage caused.
        
       | dmurray wrote:
       | > Your MPs' WhatsApp group can be secure, or it can readable by
       | law enforcement and the Chinese, but you cannot have encryption
       | that can be broken only by our spies and not their spies. Pick
       | one.
       | 
       | It doesn't seem technically infeasible for WhatsApp to move to a
       | protocol where, say, every message is transmitted twice, once
       | encrypted with the recipient's public key and once with the NSA's
       | public key. Or for the state to ban all messaging systems that
       | don't follow that protocol.
       | 
       | Arguments against encryption are generally philosophical rather
       | than purely technical.
        
         | lstamour wrote:
         | You're making the original point - you can have encryption that
         | can include the NSA, but it would also end up including other
         | spies too, as secrets tend to leak the more important and
         | widely used they are. The original point was not that you can't
         | have a secure leak, but that the secure leak ultimately
         | wouldn't stay secure forever. You don't want to build the
         | weapons your enemies end up using against you, and in digital
         | ecosystems it's often trivial to do this.
        
         | benedictevans wrote:
         | I am not a cryptographer, but the standard objection to this is
         | that the NSA key will leak, either generally or be stolen by a
         | Russian/Chinese agent. And in implementation, how many keys are
         | we talking about? USA, UK, France, Germany, USA, Australia...
         | Every country's law enforcement will demand a key, and how long
         | will that remain secure?
        
       | btilly wrote:
       | The third 'no' is really well shown in
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg.
       | 
       | (A video about an expert being asked to do the impossible by
       | people who have no idea what they are asked.)
        
       | edgarvaldes wrote:
       | >First, and this is the default, they're saying no because they
       | just don't like it.
       | 
       | >Second, though, the tech industry (or the doctors, or the
       | farmers) might be saying no because this really will have very
       | serious negative consequences that you haven't understood.
       | 
       | >If the second kind of 'no' is 'that's a really bad idea', the
       | third kind is 'we actually can't do that'.
       | 
       | I think a big industry is plagued by the first case. On the other
       | hand, a specific tech worker is more prone to say no because of 2
       | and 3.
        
       | petermcneeley wrote:
       | > but you cannot have encryption that can be broken only by our
       | spies and not their spies. Pick one.
       | 
       | This doesnt seem true in practice. I would look at prism as an
       | example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM
        
       | xkcd1963 wrote:
       | Forcing down the throat cookie notifications
        
         | Affric wrote:
         | lol... the option to not create a pervasive surveillance state
         | online was there. The big players didn't want it.
        
       | Ensorceled wrote:
       | There is kind of a "boy who cried wolf" thing going on where the
       | tech industry has pushed back hard on pretty much any sort of
       | regulation and oversight that the regulators automatically assume
       | "they're saying no because they just don't like it.".
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | And for what proposed regulation of the tech industry was the
         | pushback unwarranted?
        
         | AnthonyMouse wrote:
         | A big part of the problem here is that most of the proposals to
         | regulate tech companies actually are terribly crafted attempts
         | to regulate something the drafters poorly understand, or naked
         | power grabs by other industries (legacy media conglomerates
         | being a common perpetrator).
         | 
         | A good heuristic is to look at which part of the industry is
         | opposing it. If it's opposed by small businesses or individual
         | developers or civil liberties organizations, that's a bad rule
         | even (or especially) if huge tech conglomerates like it. But if
         | it's the reverse -- like antitrust enforcement -- now you might
         | be onto something necessary.
        
       | SenAnder wrote:
       | There's another kind of 'no' - when the programmers and engineers
       | and other technically expert workers are nearly universally
       | against something, but the CEO- and lawyer-classes are for it.
       | Like software patents.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | if only the entire workforce of ad tech would just say no.
        
           | smoldesu wrote:
           | You're welcome to offer a more attractive alternative, if one
           | exists. The market is always ready.
        
         | gumballindie wrote:
         | > Like software patents.
         | 
         | Considering ai folks want to steal people's work without
         | honouring licensing a lot more will be in favour of patents.
        
           | fatfingerd wrote:
           | Call me a cynic, but I think a patent regurgitation machine
           | will more likely have a successfully defended patent against
           | the other AI makers than be shut down for the patent
           | infringement it enables.
        
         | foobiekr wrote:
         | It's hard to claim that SW engineers are against SW patents
         | since ICs are responsible for submitting and helping to
         | complete the vast, vast, vast majority of the patents filed by
         | big tech.
         | 
         | As with a bunch of the sketchy-as-hell "tech" businesses, a lot
         | of tech people have zero moral compass if it makes them an
         | additional $.
        
           | falcor84 wrote:
           | I agree with the principle of your argument, but not with
           | "zero moral compass". You may have a moral compass that goes
           | against software patents in general, but it would require a
           | _very strong_ one to sacrifice your ability to advance your
           | career and your family 's quality of life on this altar.
        
         | jonas21 wrote:
         | I know a few engineers who are quite proud of their software
         | patents. And many more who seem ambivalent, but are happy to
         | file them if they get a bonus out of it. So, I don't think it's
         | as clear-cut as you think it is.
        
           | brian-armstrong wrote:
           | They did say 'nearly universally.' I don't think what you
           | said contradicts that?
        
             | rat9988 wrote:
             | It's not as nearly universal as he thinks. That's his
             | point.
        
         | Apocryphon wrote:
         | Or, even more banally, open office floor plans.
        
         | jntvjnvutnuvt wrote:
         | That's odd because there are tons of engineers with software
         | patents.
        
       | refulgentis wrote:
       | This is quite off-base, unfortunately. Don't read it as fact, but
       | as a vibe, and take note it's an infohazard if you have any
       | managerial responsibility in a tech company.
       | 
       | Among many, many, things, the EU was not beat back on messaging
       | interoperability -- in fact, it's due to announce the draft list
       | next week.
       | 
       | And it wasn't messaging interoperability -- its a set of
       | requirements for gatekeeper services with over 45 million users.
       | 
       | I didn't expect this from Ben, but when I think back, I haven't
       | seen much work from him over the last 5 years. Did he drop out of
       | industry?
        
         | benedictevans wrote:
         | Originally, the EU had one paragraph on this. That turned into
         | separate 50 page draft once messaging people explained the
         | issues.
         | 
         | And no, nothing happened to me ;)
        
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