[HN Gopher] A case for dynamic scoring of high-skilled immigration
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       A case for dynamic scoring of high-skilled immigration
        
       Author : btilly
       Score  : 26 points
       Date   : 2023-08-30 10:51 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.slowboring.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.slowboring.com)
        
       | sharts wrote:
       | "And so we are left with problems like Taiwan Semiconductor
       | Manufacturing Company's recent announcement that it can't find
       | enough skilled workers to get its new Arizona chip plants ready
       | in time"
       | 
       | Wasn't this shown to be false because skilled workers exists. But
       | just not willing to work for peanuts?
        
         | ummonk wrote:
         | Well the problem is that Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing
         | workers work long hours for middling wages, so for
         | semiconductor manufacturing in America to be financially viable
         | in a global marketplace, something has to give.
        
         | runnerup wrote:
         | Personally I always felt H1B visas should be awarded on a
         | monthly auction. Decide how much immigration we want, then let
         | whichever companies will pay the highest salaries get the
         | slots. This guarantees that we get the most valuable immigrants
         | and makes it a lot harder to drive down local wages because low
         | salary bids won't win visa slot auctions.
        
           | light_hue_1 wrote:
           | Economists have been suggesting that the US should move to an
           | H1B auction for decades.
           | 
           | https://www.wsj.com/articles/h1b-visa-lottery-auction-
           | tech-w...
           | 
           | An auction would be good for everyone aside from companies
           | that are abusing the system to get cheap labor that's
           | basically trapped in the US.
        
             | slt2021 wrote:
             | how about nurses and all other specialized professions that
             | are not IT?
        
               | amadeuspagel wrote:
               | You could have auctions per profession.
        
               | ianferrel wrote:
               | You could, but the whole point of the auctions is to
               | allocate the visas economically efficiently, which this
               | would undo.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | acchow wrote:
               | Wages for those will rise accordingly, benefitting local
               | nurses (but raising costs for nursing)
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > Personally I always felt H1B visas should be awarded on a
           | monthly auction. Decide how much immigration we want, then
           | let whichever companies will pay the highest salaries get the
           | slots.
           | 
           | H-1B is a non-immigrant (but dual intent) visa capped
           | annually at less than 1/10 the level of the cap on immigrant
           | visas, it has very little to do with "how much immigration we
           | want".
        
           | samvher wrote:
           | Interesting idea. I'd argue that while salary correlates with
           | value, it's not the same though. It seems most likely to me
           | that this mechanism would just reserve the privilege of
           | employing immigrants to a few high income sectors, rather
           | than filter the most skilled immigrants evenly across
           | sectors.
           | 
           | To make it more concrete, it would be nice if NGOs could hire
           | foreign talent just as effectively as Google can.
        
             | reaperman wrote:
             | I'm split on this. In the case where they need someone who
             | has specific local knowledge and connections in the foreign
             | locale they're serving, it makes sense. But I fear this
             | would still be used to hire full-stack devs at non-profits
             | for $65,000/year.
        
             | ftyers wrote:
             | I don't think NGOs can currently sponsor H1Bs... But maybe
             | I'm wrong...
        
               | slt2021 wrote:
               | not every NGOs, only universities and associated non-
               | profities can sponsor any H-1B without going through the
               | lottery
               | 
               | "Universities and related nonprofit entities, nonprofit
               | research organizations and government research
               | organizations are exempt from the cap"
        
           | esotericimpl wrote:
           | I like this idea, i always thought a salary floor of
           | 150k-200k was a good idea, but the auction seems even better.
        
         | abigail95 wrote:
         | what's moral theory that says if an american refuses the job
         | because they have better options, it's unethical to import a
         | person from a poorer country to do it who doesn't have a better
         | option?
         | 
         | the answer to me seems obvious.
         | 
         | if i lived in honduras and you said i could come to america but
         | i had to work for tsmc, what's the chance i decline?
        
           | robbiep wrote:
           | Aah yes, the renown Honduran semiconductor engineer surplus
        
           | Muromec wrote:
           | What would be the moral justification to deny the better
           | option itself to this hypothetical immigrant? It's the most
           | obvious question here, there are more.
        
         | light_hue_1 wrote:
         | Not just low ages.
         | 
         | Insane work hours. Long stretches of unpaid overtime sometimes
         | without weekends. No autonomy. No freedom. No say. Oh and shift
         | work.
         | 
         | TSMC not being able to find workers has nothing in the US has
         | nothing to do with a shortage of workers. They're just terrible
         | to their people.
         | 
         | So they'll get H1B workers who are then basically trapped and
         | can be mistreated.
         | 
         | The current system is terrible for everyone. Bad for the
         | economy by keeping smart hard working people out. Bad for the
         | workers who make it here who need to put up with TSMC. And bad
         | for local Americans because H1B wage lower bounds aren't high
         | enough.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | joak wrote:
           | In Singapore they have the following system: if you want to
           | hire a foreign worker you need to pay they more than the
           | local worker for the same position. This ensures foreign
           | workers don't steal jobs from locals. Another good thing is
           | that there is no hard limit on the number of foreign workers
           | you can hire.
        
           | axus wrote:
           | When I read a recent article, the US workers were complaining
           | about "too much" freedom and autonomy. TSMC management would
           | say "build this", with no blueprints or milestones.
           | 
           | "They keep saying we're slowing them down, but they're not
           | giving us the information we need. Most of us are capable of
           | doing it if you gave us the correct information."
           | 
           | Also safety was not important.
        
         | dangerwill wrote:
         | This is a recurring theme with MattY's work. He takes any
         | statement by a company or government body at face value and
         | turns it into ammo for a certain political agenda. His position
         | as a hot take generator in favor of centrism (in the US
         | political context, so read it as economically neoliberal and
         | culturally soft liberal) means he often avoids criticism due to
         | his banality. But he has no useful insights at all, especially
         | when he is working off of corpo/government propaganda.
        
       | coderintherye wrote:
       | Dynamic scoring sounds great on the surface, but I agree with the
       | commenters that it essentially allows for "making shit up" to
       | drive an agenda.
       | 
       | To make a better case, the CBO or other entity should be making
       | predictions today and tracking how well their prediction panned
       | out in reality. Ideally, there'd be a built-in mechanism of only
       | allowing dynamic scoring when there is > X years of accurate
       | predictions at > YY% and that if the average accuracy dips below
       | that threshold then dynamic scoring is disallowed until it gets
       | back above.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | maxweylandt wrote:
       | Politicians, especially republicans, don't actually care about
       | CBO scores, as evidenced by many many tax cuts and military
       | expenditures.
       | 
       | That they haven't done this just means they don't want to, a Mitt
       | Romney here or there notwithstanding
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | Tee3993 wrote:
       | > U.S. government as being a net cost to the U.S. economy rather
       | than a net benefit.
       | 
       | How about you allow anyone who manages to get a job with decent
       | salary? Let's say $250000 year?! Residential permit obviously
       | includes family. Very fair, very transparent and easy to
       | implement.
       | 
       | This "dynamic scoring" is unfair, untransparent, and will just
       | lead to mistreatment of foreign workers by large companies!
        
         | flakiness wrote:
         | Someone getting a high salary doesn't signal the country's
         | overall prospect. That might be just a "take" case where that
         | job was supposed to be served by a US citizen.
         | 
         | Any US citizen (or citizens in any country) doesn't want fair
         | competition against immigrants/foreign laborers. They accept
         | immigrants because it (is supposed to) enlarge the pie to
         | share. That's why things like dynamic scoring attempt to
         | capture a bigger picture.
         | 
         | I'm personally skeptical about metrics with a lot of guess
         | work, but I appreciate the effort here. The impact of the
         | immigration is just hard to quantify.
        
           | Tee3993 wrote:
           | My case is more about motivating smart people to come into
           | US. Current system is broken.
           | 
           | Immigration system is byzantine and unpredictable. Person can
           | even get kicked out with very short notice. And frankly
           | salary in US quite often does not even cover expenses (rent,
           | insurances, taxes...).
           | 
           | Semiconductor engineer from Taiwan has options in mainland
           | China, Singapore, UAE... If you count expenses (living,
           | travel and legal), cultural values, taxes... This engineer
           | may actually make more money outside of US!
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | returningfory2 wrote:
         | I'm not sure what you mean by "dynamic scoring" here - maybe
         | you mean a points based immigration system? The article is not
         | about this. It's about how Congress scores legislation based on
         | its economic impact, and is advocating for using a system
         | called "dynamic scoring" for scoring immigration law. It has
         | nothing to do with how workers are treated by companies.
        
           | Tee3993 wrote:
           | Fair point, I got the meaning wrong.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | balls187 wrote:
       | > the idea that we should make green cards more easily available
       | to foreign-born STEM graduates.
       | 
       | Why, just so companies can have cheaper wages?
       | 
       | What benefit does America get by having more foreign born and
       | trained tech workers?
       | 
       | Why not make it easier for police, doctors, nurses, social
       | workers, and teachers instead?
        
         | soligern wrote:
         | If nothing else then because it works. Immigrants have founded
         | 51% of our top 500 billion+ unicorns. Indian entrepreneurs
         | alone account for 66 out of 500. How many jobs is that
         | creating? Millions at the very least. At 1% of the population,
         | Indian immigrants pay 6% of all taxes. These people also will
         | become/are American citizens.
         | 
         | You have to be a hardcore racist and/or an idiot to argue with
         | data that overwhelming.
        
         | Mountain_Skies wrote:
         | It enables the US to weaken other countries by draining away
         | their intellectual capacity. Think of it as 'Cognitive
         | Imperialism' and then it fits in well with the historical
         | patterns of how the US treats the world.
        
           | rattlesnakedave wrote:
           | > It enables the US to weaken other countries by draining
           | away their intellectual capacity
           | 
           | Are you implying that if they don't emigrate they'll be
           | properly utilized in a way that is a threat to the US's
           | current hegemony? If so, why aren't these countries doing
           | that now?
        
             | dahwolf wrote:
             | Well, perhaps because they can't afford it?
        
           | wslh wrote:
           | That is how the world works and is working until now. I don't
           | find any surprising effect. Do you?
        
       | coding123 wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | InitialLastName wrote:
         | To clarify for anyone confused, "extremist leftist
         | organizations" appears to be referring to Harvard University,
         | Yale University and Stanford University, although one of the
         | authors also received funding from a noted left-wing terrorist
         | organization called the "United States Department of Defense".
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | jmpman wrote:
       | I want a bidding system for the H1B slots, paid not just once,
       | but yearly by the companies which hire the H1Bs. That money
       | should then go for scholarships to educate American citizens for
       | these jobs. It first allows American citizens to compete, as they
       | would be cheaper than the H1B salary (market rate) + fee, and it
       | would provide funding for scholarships in areas which apparently
       | aren't being supplied by US graduates. In addition, there should
       | be a multiplier on that fee for any company which lays off US
       | citizens with that skill in the past N years.
        
         | dragonwriter wrote:
         | > I want a bidding system for the H1B slots, paid not just
         | once, but yearly by the companies which hire the H1Bs
         | 
         | I want to eliminate the H-1B (and some other non-immigrant
         | economic visa categories, but the H-1B is the most salient) and
         | instead allow would-be immigrants or temporary workers not
         | admitted under any other visa category but not personally
         | disqualified from entry to get an annually renewable paid self-
         | sponsored work-eligible visa (with lower fees for those
         | eligible but on a waitlist in an immigrant visa category) . If
         | employers want to pay for the cost, they can, but the worker's
         | visa status won't be dependent on them.
        
         | ChadNauseam wrote:
         | This is very similar to an idea proposed by the late economist
         | William Vickrey. He suggested having an auction for visas, and
         | distributing the revenue generated by the auction evenly
         | between every citizen. This would somewhat align the incentives
         | between citizens and immigrants without introducing feel-good
         | steps like scholarship subsidies.
         | 
         | Realistically, there's not very many Americans who could get
         | become an engineer if only they had a little more scholarship
         | money. Those Americans can mostly get loans to pay for college,
         | then pay off their loans using all the extra money they make
         | now that they're an engineer. If you have any empirical data
         | that contradicts this I'd be interested in seeing it.
        
           | asu_thomas wrote:
           | A mountain of loans is utterly terrifying when you're already
           | in debt. You have to be eagerly ignorant, incredibly
           | privileged, or just plain out of touch to not grasp that
           | reality and the scourge that it is on working Americans. When
           | you aren't in dept, then sure it's "an investment" but what
           | kind of financial advice says to take out loans for
           | investments when you're already in debt?
        
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