[HN Gopher] Neutrons prove 'Bond villain' did not cause Arecibo ...
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       Neutrons prove 'Bond villain' did not cause Arecibo telescope
       collapse
        
       Author : dcminter
       Score  : 122 points
       Date   : 2023-08-29 11:20 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.ornl.gov)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.ornl.gov)
        
       | simonhamp wrote:
       | It's cool that something good can still come out of this
       | "disaster" - it's a shame that it wasn't kept up, but if this
       | sort of forensic analysis reveals ways to improve cable
       | manufacturing or maintenance routine improvements, that feels
       | like a pretty good win
        
         | adrian_b wrote:
         | It is well known that zinc, like all metals with low melting
         | temperature, flows slowly under high stress.
         | 
         | So this failure was easily predictable. I assume that the
         | cables have been designed for a much shorter lifetime, so it
         | was expected that either the cables would be replaced or the
         | radiotelescope would be decommissioned many years ago.
         | 
         | Nevertheless, the choice of pure zinc for the cable sockets is
         | somewhat weird, because it guarantees a short lifetime. Had a
         | zinc alloy been used, like ZAMAK (Zn-Al alloy), the flowing
         | speed would have been much less and the lifetime of the cables
         | would have been greater.
         | 
         | Alloys are much more resistant to plastic deformation and
         | flowing than pure metals, because the atoms with different
         | sizes cause defects in the crystal structure that prevent the
         | easy slipping of the atom planes over each other.
        
           | nullc wrote:
           | https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/arecibo/Arecibo-
           | Tel... Go to pdf page 53-ish.
           | 
           | They show the zinc doesn't continue to creep if the load is
           | below a threshold-- technically the zinc doesn't creep if
           | it's not subject to persistent shear forces, which is won't
           | be if the cable load is below a threshold as the wires take
           | up the load. This essentially results in a long term capacity
           | which is different from the short term capacity.
           | Unfortunately the ratio between the two depends on the wire
           | splaying geometry which isn't well controlled, resulting in
           | wide differences.
           | 
           | The report concludes that if it had been built to a safety
           | factor of 3 rather than 2, the issues wouldn't have been
           | experienced. Alternatively, the failure could have been
           | avoided by reacting to flow over some threshold (which was
           | noticed well in advance, but not reacted to)
           | 
           | Presumably we don't see similar failures in sockets in
           | suspension bridges because they're built at a safety factor
           | of 5+ and usually that's a SF over their rarely reached
           | maximum load rather than a factor over their 24/7 load.
        
           | roberthahn wrote:
           | Could you cite sources? Specifically, when was it discovered
           | that zinc flows under high stresses? By whom?
           | 
           | (Not a materials engineer so I'm not sure what to search for)
        
             | adrian_b wrote:
             | Any handbook about the strength of materials has a chapter
             | about creep a.k.a. cold flow.
             | 
             | The handbooks from immediately after WW2 already included
             | such a chapter, but I believe that the first studies of
             | this problem must be much older.
             | 
             | When any metallic structure is designed, it must be
             | verified that it will not fail in any of the possible
             | modes, including due to flow over the intended lifetime.
             | 
             | See in:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creep_(deformation)
             | 
             | at "Temperature dependence".
             | 
             | By the approximate rule mentioned there, zinc begins to
             | have non-negligible creep already above minus thirty
             | Celsius degrees, so at normal ambient temperatures you must
             | always compute the creep of zinc for any structural design.
             | 
             | On the other hand, metals like iron or copper have
             | negligible creep at room temperature, even when pure.
             | 
             | Aluminum and magnesium begin to have non-negligible creep
             | at temperatures only a little above normal ambient
             | temperatures.
             | 
             | Hard alloys can have much lower flowing speeds than the
             | metals included in their composition.
             | 
             | In integrated circuits, the metal connections are affected
             | by electromigration, which is the flowing of the metal due
             | to electrical current instead of mechanical stress.
             | 
             | The electromigration properties and creep properties of a
             | metal are closely related. In the beginning, the ICs used
             | pure aluminum for interconnections, but when their size was
             | reduced, the connections began to fail after a too short
             | lifetime.
             | 
             | The first solution for this problem was the replacement of
             | pure aluminum with harder aluminum alloys, including small
             | quantities of copper and/or silicon.
             | 
             | When the ICs became even smaller, the aluminum alloys had
             | to be replaced with a metal having a higher melting
             | temperature, i.e. copper, which fortunately also has a
             | lower resistivity.
        
               | roberthahn wrote:
               | Thank you for the information!
               | 
               | Sometimes it's worth pausing a moment when seeing a "It's
               | well known that..." to check the timeline because the
               | construction of Arecibo might well have taken place (or
               | planned) before it was known (let alone well known).
               | 
               | Edit: a bit more searching suggests that this was studied
               | in 1947 (Andrade's Creep Law and the Flow of Zinc
               | Crystals, by AH Cottrell)
        
               | RajT88 wrote:
               | This feels like the facility was in operation for so
               | long, that the people who knew about this potential
               | problem all retired and with them went that knowledge.
        
             | sheepshear wrote:
             | Andrade is the namesake of Andrade creep due to his work in
             | the early 1900s, but the existence of creep had been known
             | for a long time by then. I'd imagine smiths have been aware
             | of creep throughout the history of metallurgy.
             | 
             | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.1910.00
             | 5...
        
       | eggy wrote:
       | Cable tension systems are very tricky to engineer, and Arecibo
       | was built quite a while ago. If you use fixed, non-adjustable
       | cables, you still need to tension them again after installation
       | to allow for settling to balance tension on all the wires. I
       | don't know much about Arecibo, but having strain gauges on each
       | wire, some can be built into the assembly, would allow monitoring
       | and possible automatic tensioning systems to balance the loading.
       | Even in a system of many cables, the load shifts with wind and
       | geological shifting of foundations, and sometimes for brief
       | periods a few of the many cables take the majority of the load
       | leading to differences in strain or stress.
        
       | WJW wrote:
       | TIL that creep can even happen at room temperature (albeit
       | Caribbean room temperature) if the stresses are great enough and
       | the time span long enough.
       | 
       | I always thought that it was more a thing for objects like jet
       | engine turbine blades, that get very hot as well as having very
       | great forces acting on them.
        
         | thsksbd wrote:
         | Transport properties all "happen" at any temperature. The rate
         | is exponential with T, though, so at some point you dismiss it.
         | Kinetics usually (always? Who remembers? ) is continuous with
         | T.
         | 
         | Phase changes, on the other hand can happen abruptly wrt T
         | (first order, melting/boiling ice), or gradually (second order,
         | curie transition, boiling mixtures).
         | 
         | Of course, first order transitions require a pure substance
         | that doesn't actually exist since the chemical potential is
         | infinite at infinite dilution. But that's entirely academic.
         | 
         | EDIT: I forgot to mention that creep has many proposed
         | mechanisms and their relative contribution is not fully
         | understood; however most depend on a transport phenomena,
         | typically diffusion.
        
           | WJW wrote:
           | Diffusion of atoms through solid materials is one of those
           | things I intellectually know happens, but still don't really
           | grok. Sintering is one of the weirdest things.
           | 
           | Why does squishing things together AND warming them up cause
           | the particles to stick together more than when you just
           | squish them together or just warming them up?
        
             | imchillyb wrote:
             | > Why does squishing things together AND warming them up
             | cause the particles to stick together more than when you
             | just squish them together or just warming them up?
             | 
             | >> The equations describing these laws are special cases of
             | the ideal gas law, PV = nRT, where P is the pressure of the
             | gas, V is its volume, n is the number of moles of the gas,
             | T is its kelvin temperature, and R is the ideal (universal)
             | gas constant.
             | 
             | >> https://pressbooks-
             | dev.oer.hawaii.edu/chemistry/chapter/rela...
             | 
             | The laws of thermodynamics describe how gases work, those
             | laws cause the effects you're asking about.
             | 
             | The above is a bit much for a primer on the topic, but
             | provide enough key words for a Google-dive into the
             | subject.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | Did you miss the part where I was talking about sintering
               | and diffusion of atoms in materials in their solid phase?
               | A quick search in the article you linked shows zero
               | results for either "sintering", "diffusion" or related
               | terms.
               | 
               | The ideal gas law is very nice but hardly applicable to
               | describe things like creep in metals under stress, let
               | alone things like the grain boundary diffusion mechanism
               | for sintering metal particles together.
        
               | salawat wrote:
               | What is a solid but a, relatively speaking, very, very
               | cold gas?
               | 
               | Put two solids together with no intervening medium, and
               | heat everything up, and you'll see some mixin' and
               | mingling. Often, the reason you _don 't_ see more of that
               | sort of thing is because everything is immersed in an
               | oxygen rich fluid with a tendency to create large,
               | relatively reluctant to mix and mingle oxide coatings
               | before anything fun can happen. Hence why another word
               | for cold welding is vacuum welding.
               | 
               | Materials, when you really look at em' are not as 'solid'
               | and 'stable' as you may think. Hence why I have a
               | mechanics of materials book I peruse from time to time.
        
             | thsksbd wrote:
             | Diffusion:
             | 
             | Its not hard to understand once you see the mechanism in
             | full (vacancies, interstials, etc) but its hard to write as
             | txt.
             | 
             | Suffice to say, there's plenty of room to squeeze.
             | 
             | "Squeezing"
             | 
             | When you squeeze you get rid of air bubbles, right? Well,
             | when you squeeze you get rid of boundaries which are really
             | volumes at small scales.
             | 
             | Well nature hates surfaces, so if you squeeze surfaces
             | close enough together and hot enough you'll give the
             | material an opportunity to rearrange atoms to get rid of
             | boundaries.
             | 
             | "Ostwald ripening"
             | 
             | If you thought sintering and diffusion are hard, I had a
             | respected mechanical engineering professor working on a
             | refractory materials project claim, when he first
             | encountered it, that Ostwald ripening cannot occur.
             | 
             | The mtls Eng guys rolled our eyes...
        
             | hansvm wrote:
             | Squishing is important, else the forces involved are
             | negligible. Warming them up increases their movement and
             | thus the likelihood of a number of things (including random
             | interactions with the thing they're squished against).
             | 
             | You might also be interested in cold welding.
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_welding
        
         | mensetmanusman wrote:
         | https://youtu.be/EXbiEopDJ_g?si=pXwPNdH8d-AHAf2b
         | 
         | Dislocation motion looks cool too. Fun math behind these
         | strings of holes in the atomic structure.
        
         | aidenn0 wrote:
         | Different metals behave differently. Zinc exhibits creep at a
         | much lower temperature than most (all?) steels, for example.
        
         | h2odragon wrote:
         | Trying to think about the forces on the ends of the cables;
         | when the wind is blowing and the big weight they support is
         | bucking and the resonances of all these waves are interacting
         | among all those cables... I kinda suspect there were
         | instantaneous loads at times that were several multiples of the
         | static weight. kinda expect that would count for more. Not that
         | I know anything about it :)
         | 
         | It stood for as long as it did, and had more weight added than
         | the original design called for: thats a pretty good win for the
         | original design, i think.
        
           | sandworm101 wrote:
           | At these scales, at this length of cable, they would stretch
           | enough to soften most instantaneous loads.
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | Failures due to creep deformation are pretty common in solder
         | joints - driven by residual stresses created during assembly
         | which persist over a long time, and eventually lead to cracks
         | forming (stress relief - but not so good for the connection).
         | 
         | Usually not an issue at room temperature, but it can happen -
         | solder has a low melting point.
         | 
         | In the case of the observatory, the failure happened in zinc
         | components, which has a fairly low melting point.
         | 
         | Turbine blades are just one of the most extreme examples, it's
         | really hard to make a metal that resists creep in that
         | environment.
        
       | toss1 wrote:
       | The metal technology is outdated for this kind of structure
       | 
       | This should be rebuilt with far lighter weight carbon fiber
       | composite structures for the suspended equipment and far higher-
       | strength and lighter weight carbon fiber rope/cable.
       | 
       | Both technologies are very well developed and proven. Structural
       | carbon fiber is used in everything from aircraft [2] to buildings
       | to bridges [1], and it is only carbon fiber ropes that allow
       | elevators to work in new kilometer-tall buildings [0].
       | 
       | Merely reducing the weight alone reduces the stresses involved in
       | supporting the required equipment, and even greater benefit and
       | safety margin is gained with the higher strength of engineered
       | composite materials.
       | 
       | Time to rebuild with the next generation of technology.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/in-super-tall-
       | build...
       | 
       | [1] https://www.compositesworld.com/products/creative-
       | composites...
       | 
       | [2] https://hexagon.com/resources/resource-library/composite-
       | mat...
        
       | philipwhiuk wrote:
       | If the wires snapped, surely fault was actually Bond's.
       | 
       | Metallic Bonds' that is.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | falcor84 wrote:
       | Does it use 'Bond villain' rather than implicitly mention Sean
       | Bean in order to avoid spoiling the demise of a character in a
       | movie from almost three decades ago?
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | I remembered it was a villain, I didn't remember it was played
         | by Sean Bean so, more effective headline for me personally. I'm
         | not sure why you honed in on that though.
        
         | WJW wrote:
         | Oi! Spoilers!
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | - guy walking into aftermarket auto parts store
        
         | barrysteve wrote:
         | They spoiled most of the movie in the trailer, back in 1995.
         | 
         | My friend still to this day says he would have preferred to go
         | in blind, not knowing who the bad guy was. It would have been
         | an epic reveal.
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | I don't intentionally watch movie trailers for this very
           | reason.
        
         | pimlottc wrote:
         | Or they just assume most people aren't familiar with the
         | characters from every random Bond movie?
        
           | mtlmtlmtlmtl wrote:
           | Fair assumption, although Goldeneye is easily one of the best
           | Bond movies, if not the best. Personally I remember more
           | about that movie than I do about the whole rest of the
           | franchise combined.
        
             | mcpackieh wrote:
             | Goldeneye is among the best, but for my money I think
             | Timothy Dalton gave us the best Bond performances we're
             | likely to ever get. Brosnan did it well, but Timothy Dalton
             | just oozed cool killer vibes.
        
           | schnitzelstoat wrote:
           | It's Alec Trevelyan.
           | 
           | I played the N64 game so much as a kid I can probably name
           | almost all of the characters in Goldeneye.
        
         | mig39 wrote:
         | It's not a spoiler. If Sean Bean is in a movie or TV show, he
         | will die.
        
           | c-linkage wrote:
           | He didn't die in the _The Martian_ or _Ronin_, but he was
           | fired from his job in both movies.
        
             | NooneAtAll3 wrote:
             | Not remembering Sharpe... Now that's not soldiering
        
         | sideshowb wrote:
         | Isn't the modern consensus that Sean Bean being cast to play a
         | character carries that information implicitly?
        
       | mjb wrote:
       | Metallurgy is super interesting. The fact that metals - these
       | crystals that would be super brittle and stiff except for a few
       | dislocations - can creep like this is amazing.
       | 
       | My (slightly) tongue-in-cheek proposal for Arecibo: drones.
       | Instead of trying to hold one big antenna up with huge cables,
       | you use an array of antennas flying above the dish on drones.
       | This allows for low cost, easy beam steering (within the limits
       | of the shape of the dish), adaptation for different frequencies,
       | quick stowing when weather arrives, etc. Even station-keeping to
       | the required accuracy doesn't seem that hard (you might have to
       | do some active phase correction). Disadvantages are that you'd
       | need to digitize on each drone (which might bust the whole
       | scheme, SNR-wise), and that drones are quite electrically noisy.
       | 
       | More here: https://brooker.co.za/blog/2021/08/11/arecibo.html
        
         | adolph wrote:
         | Why would you use drones rather than a flat stationary phased
         | array?
        
         | syllablehq wrote:
         | Interesting - you might be on to something. Hmm, maybe it's not
         | quite drones (because the limitations you mentioned like
         | electronic noise, etc) maybe it's some other autonomous
         | swarming unit. Maybe they are drones, but you use some kind of
         | floatation like helium or hydrogen to reduce power needed and
         | therefore noise. Maybe you physically connect each of them in
         | some way in a compression/tension webbing that can be adjusted
         | to control swam unit positions instead of using drone
         | propellers. Fun idea :)
        
           | eggy wrote:
           | I think the hurricanes and storms would do more than "shake,
           | not stir" the drones, especially the helium-filled drones ;)
        
         | hwillis wrote:
         | DJIs biggest drone is over 1m wide and can carry a 6 kg
         | payload.
         | 
         | If you could make a suitable receiver that weighed 6 kg or even
         | 600kg, you could just suspend it from motorized plastic cables
         | on space frame towers. Drones aren't going to make it cheaper
         | or easier.
        
           | mjb wrote:
           | I suspect you could make the receivers weigh single digit
           | grams, depending on the band.
        
         | tbalsam wrote:
         | Anyone that remotely touches any ODEs relating to this line of
         | work just had a heart attack and fainted.
         | 
         | We don't need a roaring 20's prohibition-era jiggly jazz fest
         | on our energy packets, this sounds absolutely nightmarish for
         | anyone below a management position having to work with it. :(|)
        
         | phyzome wrote:
         | The electrical noise from the drones is probably
         | insurmountable.
        
         | ooterness wrote:
         | "If you were plowing a field, which would you rather use: two
         | strong oxen or 1024 chickens?" -Seymore Cray
        
           | dtgriscom wrote:
           | Chickens apply fertilizer as they plow.
        
             | HankB99 wrote:
             | As do the oxen.
        
               | dev_tty01 wrote:
               | I wonder how well the poop/work ratio scales between
               | chickens and oxen?
        
       | atonalfreerider wrote:
       | It was James Bond himself that destroyed Arecibo, not his former
       | 00 partner Alec Trevelyn.
        
         | philipwhiuk wrote:
         | If you read the article you'll find it was actually his long
         | time partner, Covalent.
        
         | enkid wrote:
         | Only because it was being used to control an EMP satellite set
         | to destroy London.
        
           | downvotetruth wrote:
           | James admitted it was for himself rather than a bond to duty.
        
       | gonzus wrote:
       | TIL that the concave dish surface was actually spherical and not
       | paraboloidal, as I had always assumed.
        
         | jacquesm wrote:
         | The main dish is fixed, they move(d) the receiver around to
         | steer it, with a paraboloidal dish that would not work (because
         | the focal point would be fixed).
        
           | HPsquared wrote:
           | Did they apply any corrections for the spherical aberration?
        
             | PopePompus wrote:
             | Yes. Initially the receivers had very long linear feeds,
             | because a spherical mirror focuses to a line, not a point.
             | Later additional mirrors were added to partially correct
             | for spherical aberration.
        
       | dcminter wrote:
       | I know, I know, clickbait title - but it's an interesting read
       | and the title is amusing at least!
        
       | ourmandave wrote:
       | A reference to Goldeneye (1995) that featured Alan Cumming as
       | Boris Grishenko, the most obnoxious programmer on the planet.
       | 
       | Rumored, but proven not to be, invincible.
        
         | hef19898 wrote:
         | Rumor has it he might have ultimately been defeated by brushed
         | steel Parker pen. Rumor also has it that those pens became sort
         | of a must have in the late 90s. Maybe those incidents are
         | related, we will know more when his Majesty's Secret Service
         | declassifies the files in 100 years or so.
         | 
         | Or we ask Pierce Brosnan, I have the feeling he was involved in
         | this somehow...
        
         | pelagicAustral wrote:
         | > the most obnoxious programmer on the planet
         | 
         | hahaha Not by far... I used to work with an Erlang programmer
         | (probably not really the reason he was so eccentric), and this
         | guy was by far so full of oddity that was almost impossible for
         | anyone else in the office to tolerate him. A brilliant
         | programmer, but utterly incapable to having other humans
         | around.
        
           | dsabanin wrote:
           | I think I know that guy.
        
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       (page generated 2023-08-29 23:01 UTC)