[HN Gopher] Wet-bulb temperature
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Wet-bulb temperature
        
       Author : vincent_s
       Score  : 117 points
       Date   : 2023-08-28 13:42 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (en.wikipedia.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (en.wikipedia.org)
        
       | gorbypark wrote:
       | I worked as a snowmaker at ski resorts for most my my adult life
       | before getting into tech. We always use wet bulb temperatures
       | because it's a representation of temperature and humidity. With
       | extremely low humidity, you can actually make manmade snow at
       | about +3 degrees Celsius. That was always fun but scary, because
       | a small change in humidity can turn snowguns into water guns in
       | the blink of an eye.
        
         | sokoloff wrote:
         | I've occasionally wanted to try snowmaking at home on brutally
         | cold days.
         | 
         | Any tips for someone wanting to try this at home? Let's assume
         | that I have access to tap water at 60psi dynamic pressure and
         | air at 90psi and 10 SCFM continuous (more for short bursts if
         | needed).
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | More discussion just over a year ago:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30527168
        
       | dmans0n wrote:
       | This excerpt from the beginning of Kim Stanley Robinson's novel
       | The Ministry for the Future depicts a mass casualty wet-bulb
       | event in Uttar Pradesh:
       | 
       | https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-excerpts/the-ministry-for-t...
        
       | carapace wrote:
       | I recently spent some time camping in a place that hit daytime
       | temperatures of over 100degF. When it's that hot all you can do
       | is wet your clothing and spray mist and fan yourself to get
       | evaporative cooling. Thinking about wet-bulb temperature in that
       | context was terrifying.
       | 
       | The hot dry breeze can cool you off. The hot humid breeze is
       | death.
       | 
       | If you live somewhere where this could happen you should move
       | now.
        
       | samcheng wrote:
       | If you haven't read it yet, the first section of Ministry for the
       | Future by Kim Stanley Robinson describes a wet-bulb event in
       | striking detail. The horror of this climate-change catastrophe is
       | what finally triggers a significant global cultural shift around
       | climate change.
       | 
       | The passage was vivid enough for me to suggest preparatory
       | measures to my retired parents. I wholeheartedly recommend the
       | book to anyone interested in near-term climate impact!
        
         | gonzo41 wrote:
         | In the book that event happens to India. I sadly think that
         | when climate change starts killing people in poor countries
         | (like it already is). The western wealthy world will ignore it
         | for as long as possible.
         | 
         | I sometimes get very dark about the future we're headed into.
        
         | IKantRead wrote:
         | > wet-bulb event
         | 
         | It's probably already too late, but I keep seeing people
         | confusing the concept of "web bulb temperature" (all
         | temperatures have a wet bulb temperature, even ones very
         | pleasant for people) with "the human survivable maximum wet
         | bulb". I frequently see people saying things like "when we
         | reach wet bulb temps..", which feels a bit silly.
         | 
         | This always feels like talking about a "Kelvin event" or
         | "Kelvin temps" referring a temperature reaching absolute zero.
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | > This always feels like talking about a "Kelvin event" or
           | "Kelvin temps" referring a temperature reaching absolute
           | zero.
           | 
           | Reminds me of Ex Astris Scientia complaining about bad script
           | writing in Enterprise, specifically "deuterium can burn
           | almost as hot as plasma, when it's ignited": https://www.ex-
           | astris-scientia.org/episodes/ent2.htm
        
             | evan_ wrote:
             | Bad science in Star Trek? Perish the thought.
        
           | samcheng wrote:
           | I've used "wet-bulb event" as a shorthand for the scenario
           | where the wet-bulb temperature rises above human
           | survivability. That's why I used "event" instead of
           | "temperature."
        
         | skyfaller wrote:
         | I hate speaking negatively about Ministry for the Future,
         | because I admire KSR, and we need fiction that confronts the
         | climate crisis _and_ shows people taking positive action to
         | change the world for the better. Still, I sadly cannot
         | recommend this book. To quote from my spoileriffic review,
         | 
         | "This does not help us imagine realistic positive outcomes to
         | the climate crisis. Robinson correctly diagnoses the threats we
         | face and immerses the reader in a very plausible near future.
         | Unfortunately, any happy ending feels unearned as the world is
         | essentially saved through magic, as humans/society respond in
         | vanishingly unlikely ways."
         | 
         | https://bookwyrm.social/user/skyfaller/review/381179/s/compe...
        
           | mikeholler wrote:
           | Yes. Thank you. His book Aurora does a much better job at
           | steering us towards action while still showing consequences
           | of environmental disaster and I highly recommend it.
        
           | NegativeLatency wrote:
           | You might enjoy the monk and robot series from Becky Chambers
           | in case that you're looking for something more hopeful.
        
           | aaomidi wrote:
           | > Unfortunately, any happy ending feels unearned as the world
           | is essentially saved through magic, as humans/society respond
           | in vanishingly unlikely ways.
           | 
           | Honestly, that just makes the book better in my eyes and I
           | haven't even read it.
        
           | aaroninsf wrote:
           | Have you heard him speak on it? I have, in person, several
           | times, and this aspect of the book (which I am tepid on, as a
           | novel for other reasons myself) is something that's been
           | pulled apart.
           | 
           | I believe you can find recordings from e.g. his interactive
           | discussion of it, in the archives of "SF in SF" which are
           | typically recorded and available, maybe at SomaFM as Rusty
           | usually runs sound. Strongly recommended and it should give
           | you a frame for understanding why the narrative takes the
           | path that it does.
           | 
           | TL;DR it's overdetermined and the opposite of naivety or
           | wishful thinking; it's strategic.
           | 
           | You may disagree with the strategy, of course.
        
           | blueboo wrote:
           | Crucially, after it tip goes into the complexity of global
           | diplomacy and consensus building, a special black ops team of
           | super eco-terrorists effect the change that really needs to
           | happen. It's right at home with right-wing military fantasy,
           | Frederick Forsyth-"to bear the baddies we need to be worse
           | than the worst of em" silliness
        
           | abeppu wrote:
           | I agree that the plot repeatedly follows society making
           | choices which I find implausible -- but if one reads that
           | alienation (one's inner critic saying "this is not the world
           | we live in") as part of the experience of the work, then it
           | can function as a kind of compelling tool. Noting all the
           | points where humanity in the book takes necessary and
           | beneficial actions to improve their situation, that are
           | available to but refused by our society, one arrives at a
           | pretty jarring condemnation. Not only is the current disaster
           | entirely of our making, but all the ways in which it will
           | fail to be addressed are also our responsibility.
        
             | allemagne wrote:
             | Is it particularly jarring to realize that central banks
             | issuing a carbon-backed cryptocurrency will probably not
             | save us from climate change?
        
               | abeppu wrote:
               | I'm not familiar enough with international diplomacy or
               | central banking for that to be the most jarring part.
               | 
               | But, when the head of an international organization takes
               | a week and a half to get to a meeting on the other side
               | of the planet, and thinks that it's nicer to take a
               | sequence of trains and sailing ships than it used to be
               | to fly ... that seemed totally alien. When subsistence
               | farmers were surprised by the large amount of money they
               | were paid for getting more carbon into their soil, that
               | seemed really implausible. When KSM glosses by how easy
               | and quick it was to make giant wildlife corridors across
               | North America, and talks about whole communities packing
               | up and voluntarily abandoning towns to ceded those areas
               | to nature ... that seemed wildly implausible.
               | 
               | There were a lot of these moments for me, and while I get
               | the people that use these as a criticism against the
               | realism of the book, I also think that gap is a criticism
               | against all of us.
        
               | kelseyfrog wrote:
               | As much as the story centered around central banking
               | machinations, the buried narrative was that a lot of
               | people in power probably have to die. This realization
               | and it's impossibility make the story a tragedy when
               | compared to the real world.
        
               | abeppu wrote:
               | Sorry, why is it an impossibility for people in power to
               | die?
               | 
               | I'm not advocating for violence, to be clear, and in the
               | novel KSM seems to take the stance that at some point
               | violence is really counter-productive. But certainly
               | there have been places and periods in which e.g. targeted
               | kidnappings of rich people, assassination attempts on
               | politicians, and terrorist attacks against high-profile
               | targets have all been around -- why do you think is it
               | impossible for those to be directed at people in power in
               | the future? Especially if there are progressively more
               | climate victims, it seems like we're setting the stage
               | for a generation of people to be ripe for radicalization.
        
               | kelseyfrog wrote:
               | TMftF heavily hints and at times outright describes the
               | existence of secretly funded UN blackops missions that
               | target and assassinate people in power with strategic
               | importance. It's been a few months since I read it, but
               | if I can recall, it also described it's connection with
               | ostensibly grassroots eco-activist/terrorists.
               | 
               | Submarine accidents not withstanding, I'm not convinced
               | the UN in our current timeline could be transformed into
               | one that engages in this behavior.
        
             | LeifCarrotson wrote:
             | The ways in which we fail to address societal issues are
             | not in fact our responsibility, they're a systemic issue
             | that is a function of human nature - or political
             | nature/societal nature - that will not be solved by morose
             | feelings of condemnation. "Why can't people not be the way
             | they are" is just as useless a sentiment as "Why can't
             | mathematics not be the way it is", and will be just as
             | ineffective at causing 2 and 2 to add to 5.
             | 
             | I'm going to go back to my comparatively easy computer
             | engineering tasks after writing this comment, and have the
             | greatest respect for those willing to confront coordination
             | problems in the political sphere. That's playing the game
             | on hard mode.
             | 
             | The whole thing reminds me of this thread [1] from a few
             | weeks ago referencing Orwell's critique of Dickens:
             | 
             | >> _The truth is that Dickens 's criticism of society is
             | almost exclusively moral. Hence the utter lack of any
             | constructive suggestion anywhere in his work. ... His whole
             | 'message' is one that at first glance looks like an
             | enormous platitude: If men would behave decently the world
             | would be decent._
             | 
             | > I can't help but feel like TS Eliot's "public-spirited
             | pigs" are the same thing as Dickens' "good rich men".
             | 
             | The good news is that we've developed systems of governance
             | and economics that are not exclusively worse than
             | uneducated tribalistic hunter-gatherer anarchy - a very
             | large number of people live in significant comfort in
             | relatively ordered, mostly polite societies, generally free
             | to do what they want, and for the most part those societies
             | build things like roads, landfills, electric grids, and
             | fire departments together that make the community better.
             | It's not perfect, for sure, and we're really missing the
             | ball on this particular externality of global warming, but
             | I have some hope that we'll figure out a way to address the
             | problem that doesn't rely exclusively on weak moral
             | appeals.
             | 
             | [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37130896
        
           | allemagne wrote:
           | Can't agree more. The wet bulb event chapter is definitely
           | worth a read, though.
           | 
           | The sad reality is that the world's actual response to
           | something like that happening will probably be about as
           | disappointing and anticlimactic as the rest of the book was
           | to read.
        
             | mikeyouse wrote:
             | If the comment sections on any news story about e.g. the
             | Maui fire or any other natural disaster are an indication -
             | the world's response will be hyperpartisan conspiracy
             | mongering involving random rich people (Oprah, Zuckerberg
             | and Obama in Maui), shady groups of profiteers (developers
             | and clean energy installers), and fictional tech (directed
             | energy weapons and various "lasers) rather than the
             | shortest moment of introspection.
        
               | dingnuts wrote:
               | If climate activists wish to change minds, they simply
               | cannot react with apoplexy that after a generation of
               | messaging about how "weather is not climate" that the new
               | generation responds to catastrophic weather events with
               | "weather is not climate"
               | 
               | But of course, weather isn't climate.
               | https://www.axios.com/2023/08/14/climate-change-heat-
               | wave-ca...
               | 
               | If climate activists only wish to broadcast how virtuous
               | and smart they are for not denying The Science, by all
               | means, look down on the uneducated unwashed masses for
               | arguing as to whether or not a hot day or season is
               | definitive evidence of human caused climate change --
               | even though that's exactly what the climate activists
               | taught them not too long ago.
        
               | mikeyouse wrote:
               | 1. I didn't even mention climate change or weather?
               | 
               | b. Your own source is making a different point that the
               | one you're making..
               | 
               | > _What they 're saying: Climate scientist Zeke
               | Hausfather summarized the volcano's contribution to
               | 2023's record high temperatures this way: "So, not
               | nothing, but only a small part of the story in the
               | exceptional warmth the world is experiencing," he told
               | Axios via email._
               | 
               | > _Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A &M
               | University, also thinks the significance of the volcano's
               | warming role pales in comparison to human-driven climate
               | change and other influences._
               | 
               | > _Dessler likens climate change to a "rising tide" that
               | is elevating the baseline temperatures from which heat
               | waves begin. "This means that our heatwaves become
               | hotter, essentially 'floating' on the 'rising tide' of
               | our warming world," he said via email._
        
               | dingnuts wrote:
               | The Maui wildfire was driven by a hurricane, a weather
               | event. Did you not mention that? The Axios article
               | providing context and discussion around a topic -- some
               | of which does argue in the affirmative for climate change
               | -- is not contradictory to my post because I was not
               | arguing against climate change. I'm arguing with your
               | attitude towards the commentators on news stories, who
               | you seem to view as ignorant, when they are parroting
               | exactly the messaging that the climate activists trained
               | them to parrot.
        
               | mikeyouse wrote:
               | The commenters on news stories blaming HAARP and Directed
               | Energy Weapons in concert with Oprah and the Biden
               | Administration's clean-energy initiatives are in fact
               | ignorant. And there are tens of thousands of them.
               | 
               | You're really convinced I made some sort of argument
               | blaming the fire on Climate Change when I did nothing of
               | the sort..
        
           | specialist wrote:
           | The omission of the reactionary backlash was especially
           | implausible.
           | 
           | > _shows people taking positive action to change the world
           | for the better_
           | 
           | You might be interested in the Volts' podcast.
           | 
           | https://www.volts.wtf
           | 
           | The recent interviews with Saul Griffith ("use our sunlight
           | and iron ore and rare minerals to transform Australia into
           | the world's forge"), Tim Latimer (Fervo Energy pioneered
           | advanced geothermal, now scaling up), and Ramez Naam (climate
           | tech investor) were quite uplifting.
           | 
           | Lots of gems in the Volts archive too.
        
           | adolph wrote:
           | > we need fiction that confronts the climate crisis and shows
           | people taking positive action to change the world for the
           | better.
           | 
           | Like Termination Shock?
           | 
           | https://www.amazon.com/Termination-Shock-Novel-Neal-
           | Stephens...
        
             | jbu wrote:
             | I really prefer Ministry to termination shock. I mean, it's
             | a fun book, but it offers no solution (eg sulphur seeding
             | does nothing for ocean acidification, not to mention
             | termination shock). The fact that people read it and thing
             | it offers a solution is puzzling. Now Anathem is another
             | matter! Brilliant! (although again I have quibbles).
        
           | aidenn0 wrote:
           | Indeed; terraforming mars is more likely than the end-game of
           | Ministry for the Future.
        
           | ch4s3 wrote:
           | I feel similarly, and really love his older books. However
           | his slide towards glorifying terrorism in his recent work is
           | really troubling. The increasing focus in his work on uni-
           | bomber like characters is really off putting.
        
         | prepend wrote:
         | I found that passage pretty disturbing too. But my takeaway was
         | that there aren't any individual plans you can make unless you
         | plan on hanging out in a body of water breathing through a
         | straw for a few days.
         | 
         | What prep did you recommend to your parents? I'm interested for
         | what I can reuse or adapt.
        
           | dogman144 wrote:
           | I think the most likely option is moving geolocs for water-
           | access safety and heat concerns.
        
           | samcheng wrote:
           | I've recommended an emergency battery system for their house
           | / air conditioner, a reserve stock of water in the house, a
           | "go bag," and an escape plan to the mountains. Longer term,
           | they are realizing that their primary residence risks
           | unhabitability in summer months. I realize they're in a
           | privileged position, though.
        
         | alangibson wrote:
         | I stopped reading it because the premise is entirely
         | unbelievable. A mass casualty event of pretty much any size
         | would not lead us to do anything about climate change.
         | 
         | For evidence, look at the deaths in the USA from gives and cars
         | _every year_. Yet there is zero momentum toward doing anything
         | about those from a policy standpoint.
        
           | dmans0n wrote:
           | In the book, the Indian government takes unilateral action to
           | cool the planet (spraying reflectants into the upper
           | atmosphere, iirc) after the heat wave kills 20 million Indian
           | people in the space of a few days - a few weeks. Given the
           | fractious state of international politics and the urgency of
           | the problem, this seems like a fairly realistic depiction of
           | how efforts to cool the planet might commence IRL.
        
             | allemagne wrote:
             | There was about paragraph or so spent on that realistic
             | response, and then huge swathes dedicated to India
             | switching to collectivized farming (a la early Soviet
             | Union), the world's central banks putting carbon offsets
             | onto a blockchain, and millions of Americans willingly
             | displacing themselves to create a giant wildlife preserve
             | in the midwest.
        
               | ch4s3 wrote:
               | KSR is sliding in the direction of outright promotion of
               | eco-fascism and I can't say it makes for good literature.
        
               | alangibson wrote:
               | > millions of Americans willingly displacing themselves
               | 
               | As far fetched as any science fiction ever written
        
           | jpfed wrote:
           | News media like to have stories they can focus popular
           | attention on, and no one car accident (unless it kills
           | someone famous) will matter to enough people to warrant
           | broader coverage than one's local paper. Despite this lack of
           | media visibility, there actually is some movement at the city
           | level to change the design of roads to reduce the lethality
           | of accidents. This isn't very publicly visible yet, I don't
           | think, and there's certainly very little in the way of public
           | desire to drive less lethal vehicles.
           | 
           | I haven't read the book, but if the event the book describes
           | kills hundreds of people or more, it seems like a plausible
           | seed that news coverage can accrete around.
        
             | prepend wrote:
             | The idea in the book was this was a new event that never
             | occurred previously that finally did and was able to
             | demonstrate that climate change is doing some new and not
             | survivable.
             | 
             | In the book, people galvanized around it kind of like 9/11
             | as it was clearly climate change, as opposed to other
             | things that already existed and may or may not be due to
             | climate change (more hurricanes, etc).
        
               | alangibson wrote:
               | > people galvanized around it kind of like 9/11
               | 
               | Be careful what you wish for. 9/11 galvanized Americans
               | to start two disastrous wars. The effect of a mass
               | fatality event like in MFTF could easily be a bunch of
               | pointless, ineffective wars. There's precedent for that,
               | but not for anything like a Ministry for the Future
        
               | squeaky-clean wrote:
               | Haven't read the book (I'm interested now), but you could
               | maybe look at it as a war against climate change.
        
           | pjtn8 wrote:
           | A sudden mass causality event triggered 9/11 responses,
           | pandemic response.
           | 
           | A heat related mass death event most likely would trigger a
           | response. The real question is would it be organized and tidy
           | response, or civil unrest?
           | 
           | When 4% hunt anymore and no one can grow a carrot? Suddenly
           | logistics are interrupted worse than covid because, what,
           | Phoenix burns down?
           | 
           | Oh, it'll trigger a response.
        
             | RetroTechie wrote:
             | It's a bit different than 9/11 though. Climate change is
             | like a fully loaded supertanker. You can hit an emergency
             | break all you want, but _still_ that ship will have a
             | 5..10km (or longer?) breaking distance.
             | 
             | So if a mass death event were to occur, and policy were to
             | change course drastically, the changed climate would
             | continue to pound our biosphere for many decades (if not
             | centuries). Or hit tipping points and get worse & worse no
             | matter what we do.
             | 
             | To put it blunt: at some point, prolonged mass suffering &
             | death is practically guaranteed. Just with a decades-
             | delayed fuse. That fuse is already lit, while we can't see
             | (with any certainty, that is) how big a powder keg it goes
             | into.
        
             | alangibson wrote:
             | You sighted two totally ineffective responses to crises.
             | We'll do _something_ , it just won't be what is required to
             | actually fix the underlying problem.
        
               | pjtn8 wrote:
               | You sighted a problem and cited zero anything else.
               | 
               | Pandemic response was effective at avoiding healthcare
               | system collapse and churning out a vaccine. It's as good
               | a plan as we can get with 30% of 300 million
               | intentionally indifferent, centrists too absorbed in low
               | effort consumerism, and anyone espousing concern being
               | called a tree hugging pussy.
               | 
               | What else do you want? Too many seem to think the MCU
               | should hop on saving them from themselves.
               | 
               | Say something useful yourself or get over it. You were
               | never going to make it out of this life alive anyway.
        
               | alangibson wrote:
               | > You sighted a problem and cited zero anything else.
               | 
               | Perhaps you missed the analogy in my original between
               | climate deaths and gun+traffic deaths.
               | 
               | > It's as good a plan as we can get with 30% of 300
               | million intentionally indifferent, centrists too absorbed
               | in low effort consumerism, and anyone espousing concern
               | being called a tree hugging pussy.
               | 
               | You're so close to getting it. We will be talking about
               | "sensible solutions" that maintain our current lifestyle
               | until the planet turns into Venus.
               | 
               | > What else do you want?
               | 
               | I reluctanty have to admit I'm black pilled at this
               | point. I see no reason to believe that our species is
               | capable of the kind of collective action that's needed.
               | There are no positive examples and so many negative
               | examples.
               | 
               | > You were never going to make it out of this life alive
               | anyway.
               | 
               | You don't have kids do you?
        
               | pjtn8 wrote:
               | I do have kids. Which is why your post bugs me.
               | 
               | My whole effort here is throwing your low effort back at
               | you; including your misuse of sighted for cited.
               | 
               | Frankly I think I get you a lot better than you get me.
               | _You are your own generalization /analogy/metaphor_.
               | 
               | You're doing nothing substantive while complaining about
               | lack of substantive effort in the part of others.
               | 
               | Functional illiteracy in the raw, dog
        
               | alangibson wrote:
               | See my comment about being blackpilled on this issue. I
               | don't think humans have what it takes to deal with this.
               | 
               | > Functional illiteracy in the raw, dog
               | 
               | Not your dog, dog
        
           | sottol wrote:
           | Car accidents and even COVID deaths in a hospital ward are
           | possibly different because they're isolated and you can
           | rationalize that it will not affect you.
           | 
           | Might be different when a lot of people die in a whole region
           | and it's very obvious. But who knows, I made detailed
           | predictions at the onset of COVID and believed it would be
           | handled like SARS and the likes and stopped in about 3
           | months. Well, I was completely wrong.
        
           | IKantRead wrote:
           | Or the million+ deaths in the US from Covid, which I have
           | seen brushed off on HN as not a big deal.
           | 
           | It's remarkably how quickly people incorporate tragedy as
           | normal when it doesn't fit their worldview. If you travel to
           | 2000 and told people "in 2020 a pandemic will kill over 1
           | million Americans, and a good portion will brush it off as a
           | 'nothing burger'" people would think you were being
           | ridiculous and would dismiss it as unbelievable fiction.
        
             | alangibson wrote:
             | > It's remarkably how quickly people incorporate tragedy as
             | normal
             | 
             | It's one of our greatest strengths and weaknesses. It let's
             | us keep living, but also allows us to normalize that which
             | shouldn't be accepted.
             | 
             | If the opening of MFTF happened, within 2 weeks people
             | would be posting graphs showing how per capita all cause
             | deaths are actually going down over time.
        
           | tchalvakspamm wrote:
           | That's aggregate deaths one at a time, though. If all the car
           | deaths happened all at once in a localized area and took out
           | half of Rhode Island, it would spur action.
        
             | alangibson wrote:
             | Then explain the total lack of action after Sandy Hook,
             | that Las Vegas shooting, etc
        
               | jpfed wrote:
               | These are good examples of mass casualty events that
               | didn't motivate effective responses. For both climate
               | change and guns, there are people that want to keep the
               | status quo as it is. I believe that popular arguments
               | against gun control will be able to stay effective in
               | ways that arguments against climate action will fail.
               | 
               | First, one of the most popular arguments against action
               | addressing climate change has been that climate change is
               | simply fake. A mass-casualty event would make that
               | argument less effective.
               | 
               | The gun control debate in the United States is linked
               | with people's perceptions of personal agency. Often, a
               | mass casualty event perpetrated with a gun is ended by a
               | gun being used on the perpetrator (sometimes, it's the
               | perpetrator killing themselves, and sometimes it's police
               | killing them). Many people imagine it would be possible
               | to end those events as a bystander with a gun. But I
               | think that it would be much harder to get people to
               | fantasize about being a hero that stops a mass casualty
               | event resulting from extreme heat. Such an event starts
               | and ends when Mother Nature says it does, and it seems
               | like it should be pretty clear to people that the only
               | way personal agency is relevant is in the act of
               | preparing the environment.
        
               | alangibson wrote:
               | > A mass-casualty event would make that argument less
               | effective
               | 
               | I would have bought this 10 years ago. But following the
               | recent rise of conspricism, especially far out things
               | like Qanon and Pizza Gate, I've come to realize that it's
               | possible for vast numbers of people to just decide to
               | believe something is/isn't true because it suits them.
        
               | adolph wrote:
               | Within a year of the Las Vegas shooting, the "bump stock"
               | device used by that person was banned by the US.
               | 
               |  _The Trump administration has banned the use of bump
               | stocks, devices that let rifles fire like machine guns,
               | after promising to do so earlier this year._
               | 
               | https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46614001
        
               | alangibson wrote:
               | Great example of my main point. Instead of fixing the
               | real problems (availability of weapons and to some degree
               | mental illness) we ban an accessory. Meanwhile elsewhere
               | the bodies keep dropping.
        
               | adolph wrote:
               | Great example of moving the goalposts. You wrote "total
               | lack of action" for which there is counter-evidence in
               | the form of a national government action. With the same
               | logic, one might as well claim that an entire firearm is
               | an accessory to whatever is redefined as the "real
               | problem."
        
               | ndsipa_pomu wrote:
               | Most likely the politicians that belong to the NRA are
               | controlling the narrative.
               | 
               | Almost all politicians are also owned by the car and oil
               | industries, so that would explain the lack of action with
               | the high number of RTCs.
        
           | jlmorton wrote:
           | All life is a trade-off. There has been _massive_ effort at
           | reducing traffic fatalities, representing probably trillions
           | of dollars of investment, including road design and barriers,
           | speed limits, signaling, car safety features like crumple
           | zones, seat belts, air bags, all manner of crash safety
           | testing, enforcement actions, and much more.
           | 
           | We haven't entirely banned cars, and carbon emissions weren't
           | totally banned after the wet-bulb event in Ministry for the
           | Future.
        
             | alangibson wrote:
             | A massive failure judging by the numbers. Which is my
             | point. We will continue to feel bad, maybe drop in some
             | metaphorical traffic circles, but do nothing to actually
             | solve the issue.
        
               | rpdillon wrote:
               | Vehicle fatalities per capita and per mile travelled have
               | been dropping in the US for decades. As has the absolute
               | number of deaths.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_ra
               | te_...
        
               | alangibson wrote:
               | Still proving my point. 35K deaths per year.
               | 
               | We will normalize climate related deaths the way we have
               | normalized traffic related deaths.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Without being clear about what replacement transportation
               | mode you expect to substitute for cars, it's not clear to
               | me that your point is being proven. If we replaced cars
               | today with walking or the current state of public
               | transport in the US, I think my life is made vastly
               | better by the near-ubiquitous presence of cars, even if
               | it means I have a lifetime risk of just under 1%.
               | 
               | If cars save me just 10 minutes per day, my life is
               | improved as compared to the just under 7 minutes per day
               | of life lost to the lifetime risk of dying in a car
               | accident.
               | 
               | We normalize traffic deaths because there is a net
               | benefit. Just like we normalize other negative outcomes
               | from overall positive-utility activities.
        
               | jabradoodle wrote:
               | How is a ~24x reduction in deaths per mile driven a
               | massive failure?
               | 
               | What would you call a success? No death, total ban on
               | driving?
        
               | alangibson wrote:
               | Another post demonstrating my point. 35K people in the US
               | alone die in traffic every year. We have normalized this
               | figure (see your response) as we will normalize climate
               | deaths.
               | 
               | What I would do about traffic deaths is irrelevant to my
               | point.
        
               | jabradoodle wrote:
               | I find your approach arrogant; of course I understand
               | that people die in car crashes and yet we continue to use
               | them.
               | 
               | Your original point was:
               | 
               | >Yet there is zero momentum toward doing anything about
               | those from a policy standpoint.
               | 
               | This is clearly false. There are many effective
               | regulations and travelling by car continues to get safer.
               | 
               | Yes people still die, yes we already somewhat normalise
               | people dying from e.g. air pollution (not something that
               | will happen, we already do it)
               | 
               | There are people who do think about these things every
               | day. There are people who dedicate life to working on
               | problems and progress is being made.
               | 
               | Saying that a major event would have no impact on the
               | zeitgiest is questionable given history.
        
         | MH15 wrote:
         | First chapter of Ministry for the Future- incredibly powerful
         | and harrowing.
         | 
         | Every following chapter- terrible, not worth your time.
        
         | dogman144 wrote:
         | I clicked into this to see if MFTF was mentioned. Powerful
         | opening scene.
         | 
         | Other commenters criticizing the book for the ending and the
         | positivity turn it takes are missing the point of why the book
         | is valuable, I think.
         | 
         | Like for you maybe, it was the first book that got me serious
         | about climate. The value isn't in the ending, but in the first
         | half with unpleasantly accurate the early "oh sh*t" disasters
         | were and same for the totally inept societal responses.
         | 
         | Made me realize we were likely procrastinating our way into an
         | emergency, and any magical way out we find IRL will be at a
         | high cost of suffering. We will probably get disasters, we will
         | get climate terrorism, and it will get much worse before we get
         | saved (by magic blockchain carbon fediverse haha?).
        
           | squeaky-clean wrote:
           | If you enjoyed that, you might enjoy Perihelion Summer by
           | Greg Egan. It's climate change scifi kicked off by cosmic
           | scifi. A micro-blackhole is discovered that will pass through
           | the solar system, slightly modifying earth's orbit and raises
           | the tides by a few feet while it passes. It's essentially
           | "what if we instantly jumped forward by 500 years on our
           | current climate progression".
           | 
           | Spoiler, I found the ending very unsatisfying. It feels like
           | a cliffhanger into a second book, but there is no second book
           | it just ends without much resolution. The actual climate
           | change/societal terror in the first 75% is great though, it
           | was on pace to become a favorite book of mine.
        
       | drbig wrote:
       | Temperature without humidity is like voltage without current, or
       | per-capita GDP without the Gini coefficient. Many measures alone
       | are of little practical value.
       | 
       | Stay _comfortable_ there!
        
       | weinzierl wrote:
       | I find it interesting that in the US the weather report seems
       | include the related dew point but in Europe it usually isn't.
        
       | bradford wrote:
       | Maybe this is a pet peeve of mine, but I'm annoyed with the use
       | of the term 'wet bulb event' here and elsewhere. Wouldn't it put
       | less burden on the reader to just say "wet bulb 35C"? (That is
       | the temperature that most people seem to be referring to when
       | they say 'wet bulb event'.)
       | 
       | Every place on earth has a wet bulb temperature, all of the time.
       | Saying "wet-bulb event" doesn't really help explain the web-bulb
       | temperature's significance, which is buried in the wiki page:
       | 
       | "It has been thought that a sustained wet-bulb temperature
       | exceeding 35 degC (95 degF)--given the body's requirement to
       | maintain a core temperature of about 37degC--is likely to be
       | fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next
       | to a fan;"
        
         | JeremyNT wrote:
         | I feel like the terms in use around this are quite abstract and
         | hard to reason about. I like that the wikipedia article
         | converts this to something more useful to intuit for most of
         | us:
         | 
         | > _Even heat-adapted people cannot carry out normal outdoor
         | activities past a wet-bulb temperature of 32 degC (90 degF),
         | equivalent to a heat index of 55 degC (131 degF). A reading of
         | 35 degC (95 degF) - equivalent to a heat index of 71 degC (160
         | degF) - is considered the theoretical human survivability limit
         | for up to six hours of exposure._
         | 
         | The US NWS, for example, uses heat index commonly. In the US
         | south I seldom see it go much over 110F, and six hours is a
         | _long_ time to be exposed to the elements even at the current
         | levels of heat.
         | 
         | This isn't just a case of hitting some threshold where we all
         | drop dead, but as temperatures rise it will slowly cause people
         | to migrate to more temperate climates and/or seek out better
         | cooling structures (either actively through air conditioning or
         | passively where that isn't an option).
        
       | RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote:
       | Sounds like we will be needing lots of reliable carbon-free
       | energy, excellent electricity infrastructure, and lots and lots
       | of air conditioning.
        
       | dahwolf wrote:
       | I personally believe that I've been in a short-lived "wet bulb"
       | situation twice in my life. In both cases, in the Amazon, pretty
       | much at the equator, at some of the hottest days of the year.
       | 40-45C, humidity near a 100.
       | 
       | A cold shower does nothing, it actually makes it worse as it
       | activates your body to warm up. Stripping naked does nothing.
       | Sweat just streams down the entire body as if a tap is open. It's
       | near impossible to keep up with drinking water.
       | 
       | It was short-lived as the weather was extremely variable, but the
       | feeling of being completely unable to cool down despite throwing
       | everything and the kitchen sink at it, is memorable.
        
       | studmuffin650 wrote:
       | in my opinion, a lot of folks won't take climate change seriously
       | until it adversely affects their way of life in such a dramatic
       | way that they cannot deny it any longer.
       | 
       | A wet bulb event, occuring over multiple hours, would be that
       | signal. Piles of dead bodies from folks who either were
       | misinformed or weren't able to move to safety would be quite the
       | wake up call.
        
         | nonethewiser wrote:
         | But think about the solution. It's making A/C very accessible
         | and reliable. That requires cheap energy with a high-uptime
         | grid. There are many ways to solve this problem but adding
         | difficult to meet constraints to energy companies that risk
         | price and availability is not one of them.
        
           | gopher_space wrote:
           | I too see nationalizing our power grid as inevitable.
        
           | NoraCodes wrote:
           | The _short term_ solution is making A /C very accessible and
           | reliable. The _long term_ solution is no longer putting huge
           | amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. It is imperative to do
           | both, no matter the (e: monetary) expense.
        
             | AlgorithmicTime wrote:
             | [dead]
        
         | whycome wrote:
         | The 1896 New York heat wave lasted 10 days and killed ~1500
         | people. And has just 2 short paragraphs in Wikipedia (https://e
         | n.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Eastern_North_America_hea...)
         | 
         | > "This was 10 days [with temperatures reaching] 90 degrees at
         | street level and 90 percent humidity, with temperatures not
         | even dropping at night,"
         | 
         | https://www.npr.org/2010/08/11/129127924/the-heat-wave-of-18...
         | 
         | It wasn't necessarily a wake-up call then. But it may have at
         | least been the crisis that spurred one guy...
        
           | pakyr wrote:
           | > A majority of the deaths were of working-class men in their
           | twenties who performed manual labor.
           | 
           | Seems like in this case most of the mortality was due to
           | young men who had no choice but to work in those conditions.
           | This event, among many other work-related disasters of the
           | time, probably helped spur the push for better working
           | conditions during the Progressive Era.
        
           | gaulish wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
             | __alexs wrote:
             | If a thing that used to be a 1 in 100 year event starts
             | happening every 10 years and all the science says it's
             | because of man made climate change then yeah we can totally
             | do things to make it go back to happening once every 100
             | years again.
        
             | truculent wrote:
             | Wouldn't the rain today spit in the idea of so-called
             | "summer"?
        
         | hiatus wrote:
         | What exactly is a "wet bulb event"?
        
           | jcranmer wrote:
           | The wet-bulb temperature is the minimum temperature a wet
           | body can reach via evaporation--effectively the minimum
           | temperature you can reach via sweating. When the wet-bulb
           | temperature reaches body temperature, you can _only_ maintain
           | body temperature via active A /C.
           | 
           | Even if you are the fittest, healthiest human being alive,
           | standing in the shade in a thorough breeze, your core body
           | temperature can only go up. Let it go up, and you get
           | heatstroke and eventually death. And if you're not the
           | fittest, healthiest being alive, or not standing in the
           | shade? It's only going to go up _faster_ , and heatstroke and
           | death will beckon much sooner.
           | 
           | "Wet bulb events" are, in short, when "no A/C means outdoors
           | = death"
        
           | irdc wrote:
           | A wet bulb event occurs when the combined temperature and
           | humidity (the so called "wet bulb temperature") exceeds the
           | limits of human physiology, causing humans to overheat and
           | perish even in the absence of any activity beyond basal
           | metabolism.
           | 
           | I'm not sure it'd look like the "bodies in the street" image
           | GP likes to call up, but yes, a prolonged wet bulb event
           | would result in mass casualties.
        
             | truculent wrote:
             | Earnest question: what makes you doubt the depiction? Trust
             | in infrastructure or institutions?
        
               | irdc wrote:
               | The widespread availability of air conditioning plus the
               | fact that we've had such events before on rare occasions
               | (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-
               | bulb_temperature#Highest_r...) and we didn't see bodies
               | piled up in the street back then.
        
               | RetroTechie wrote:
               | True.. so far.
               | 
               | All that's needed is an intersection of high-humidity
               | heat wave + densely populated area + extended power
               | outage.
               | 
               | And/or too few buildings that have A/C or other places to
               | escape the heat like swimming pools, metro tunnels or
               | whatever.
               | 
               | Probably more likely to occur in less-developed areas
               | like India or Africa. But regardless, _could_ happen in
               | many places. Just a few degrees might be the difference
               | between 1000s or 100k+ deaths.
        
           | lukevp wrote:
           | Temperature and humidity are high enough that you can't cool
           | off naturally via sweat. I would suspect most people don't
           | realize that's even a thing. I'm from Texas, and everyone
           | thinks they're heat adapted and tries to act macho. A lot of
           | people would just stay outside and keep working, ignoring any
           | warnings they received.
        
             | wonderwonder wrote:
             | I expect Texas to be the first state to experience a wet
             | bulb event. Its only a matter of time before we get a
             | combination of extreme heat and a massive failure of their
             | power grid.
             | 
             | Hundreds of deaths in a single day will lead to... nothing.
             | Same politicians will be voted in and the deaths will just
             | be counted as the price of freedom
        
               | ChatGTP wrote:
               | People will probably blame "the woke" and of course China
               | and India.
        
               | nocoiner wrote:
               | We had hundreds of deaths in the span of 2-3 days during
               | the winter storm in 2021. It didn't catalyze any
               | political change then, so unfortunately I think you're
               | right about the effect the next time it happens.
               | 
               | I have been surprised by the resilience of the grid this
               | summer. Thank god for solar.
        
             | no_wizard wrote:
             | In part, I'm sure culture in this particular instance is
             | partly to blame here.
             | 
             | That said, in more general terms, this is a relatively new
             | concern for many people, even in Texas or Arizona, where
             | these wet bulb events were rare. All told, I can understand
             | how people really don't grok it because 10+ years ago, they
             | could keep working in the heat taking relatively simple
             | precautions.
             | 
             | However since 2021 web bulb events have been increasing in
             | regularity and many models suggest that starting this year
             | and going forward, these extreme heat events are going to
             | become the norm, with increasing intensity, making this a
             | permanent concern now. This makes a lot of simple previous
             | precautions folks take less effective or even worthless.
        
               | gaulish wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
           | makeitdouble wrote:
           | I assume parent means a period of time where the ambient
           | temperature is at or above the wet bulb temperature.
        
             | jcranmer wrote:
             | Ambient temperature is always at or above the wet-bulb
             | temperature, by definition. A wet-bulb temperature measures
             | the temperature that can be achieved after energy loss due
             | to evaporation of water, so as long as evaporation is
             | possible (humidity < 100%), it is lower than the actual
             | temperature.
        
           | Zaskoda wrote:
           | Basically, it's when the wet-bulb temperature exceeds 35C.
           | From the Wikipedia entry:
           | 
           | "It has been thought that a sustained wet-bulb temperature
           | exceeding 35 degC (95 degF)--given the body's requirement to
           | maintain a core temperature of about 37degC--is likely to be
           | fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade
           | next to a fan; at this temperature human bodies switch from
           | shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it"
        
         | losvedir wrote:
         | People will need to start thinking of the summer months in some
         | places like the winter months in others: during certain periods
         | you need shelter with working HVAC systems, and when you go
         | outside you need suitable gear and emergency arrangements.
         | 
         | I live in the Chicago area, and in the winter working from my
         | heated home and traveling between heated places in my heated
         | car, it's sometimes possible to forget how uninhabitable it is
         | outside! But you need to carry emergency jackets and other
         | things in the car in case it breaks down and you lose your
         | climate control. And I remember how scary it was when my
         | furnace broke during a winter cold snap!
        
           | btbuildem wrote:
           | The one key difference is, in cold climates we heat our
           | spaces and any heat that "leaks out" or is otherwise
           | incidental is absorbed by the cold outside.
           | 
           | In the hot climates, we cool our spaces, but in the process
           | we pump extra heat outside, making it warmer when it's
           | already too warm.
        
         | mrjaeger wrote:
         | That's actually the inciting incident for the cli-fi book "The
         | Ministry for the Future". Overall I really enjoyed the book,
         | was a good mix of interesting economic/policy ideas interwoven
         | through a compelling character based narrative.
        
         | jncfhnb wrote:
         | Some people have fantasies about these heatwaves that just
         | decimate all living things. It's not that simple.
         | 
         | It's not THAT hard to cool down even if you're incapable of
         | sweating to do so. People aren't idiots either. Despite
         | imaginations of cultural hubris, people can tell when it's
         | deathly, disgustingly hot, and do not casually tank it until
         | they die. And even if they did, they're not idiots. If one
         | person collapses, they're not going to ignore them and continue
         | to assume the heat is negligible. You don't have to realize the
         | nuances of your circumstances and the probability of death to
         | understand that you are intolerably uncomfortable.
         | 
         | Yes of course heat waves are bad and can kill people. But wet
         | bulb events are not a magic threshold that completely change
         | the game.
        
           | falcolas wrote:
           | > It's not THAT hard to cool down even if you're incapable of
           | sweating to do so.
           | 
           | How would you recommend cooling down for hundreds of
           | thousands of people at a time? I have to assume that those
           | affected wouldn't have easy access to AC.
        
             | generic92034 wrote:
             | Also, can we all be sure that electricity will be available
             | during such an event?
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | Heat waves are dangerous. My point is that wet bulb
               | events are not a magical inflection point.
               | 
               | The point to take away is that humidity matters in
               | addition to raw temperatures. Not that there is a
               | specific threshold at which things matter or didn't
               | matter.
        
               | generic92034 wrote:
               | I think that point was well understood, by falcolas, to
               | whom I was replying. But your assumption that it is not
               | that hard to cool down seems a bit strong to me.
               | 
               | In some countries electricity becomes unavailable quite
               | regularly, so relying on A/C during a crisis like that
               | might fail. And that is assuming that A/Cs are common
               | (they are not, in large parts of the world).
               | 
               | Cooling yourself down by using water from a tap may also
               | fail, if, in such a situation, everyone in a city tries
               | to do that. You are assuming a very high level of
               | infrastructure and no critical failures.
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | You don't need much water. It doesn't need to be that
               | cool either. If you lack access to the water required to
               | do this, which does not even need to be clean, then the
               | lack of water is probably the bigger crisis.
               | 
               | Heatwaves and infrastructure failures can undoubtedly be
               | serious threats. But the vast, vast majority of people
               | survive wet bulb events when they encounter them.
        
               | generic92034 wrote:
               | So you are saying a small amount of water would be enough
               | to cool you down when it is (for example) 35deg C at 90%
               | humidity? How would that work? Evaporative cooling is
               | out, for the most part and a small amount of water would
               | be heated up to 35deg C in no time.
        
             | sjducb wrote:
             | Fill a bath and get in it. The groundwater is usually much
             | colder than the air.
             | 
             | However there is a limit to how long you can live in the
             | bath.
        
               | carapace wrote:
               | Many of the places at the forefront of this threat also
               | have water scarcity issues. There's also the problem of
               | what to do with the water once it's heated up. You could
               | pump it back into the ground to cool off, but eventually
               | you're going to heat the ground itself and have an even
               | worse problem.
        
               | falcolas wrote:
               | And how many bath tubs there are per-capita. Many newer
               | homes are built with only showers.
               | 
               | You also have to worry about power when it comes to
               | having access to sufficient water to cool a person in the
               | first place.
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | You do not need to submerge yourself underwater if that's
               | what you are suggesting. A bucket of water for your feet
               | will do lots. A shower is good too.
        
               | falcolas wrote:
               | I'm not sure a bucket would be enough to cool a person
               | down if they have no other form of heat dissipation
               | available to them - specifically I'm not sure feet alone
               | could dissipate heat fast enough. If the water is too
               | cold (around 70degF IIRC), your body would constrict the
               | blood vessels to your hands and feet, limiting how much
               | heat could be moved to those extremities from your core.
               | 
               | Hence mentioning a bath tub.
               | 
               | Some interesting reading to go along with this topic:
               | 
               | https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19750007244/downloads
               | /19...
               | 
               | Of particular note is the need to remove about 1k
               | BTU/hour when walking/doing light work, and that's only
               | from metabolic heat generation.
               | 
               | And 1 BTU raises 1 pint of water 1 degree, so 1k BTU/hour
               | would raise 5 gallons of water by an unrealistic 25deg
               | every hour.
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | You're going to need to set some practical constraints
               | here.
               | 
               | Can you survive wet bulb temperatures given a bucket of
               | water indefinitely? No. Can you survive working hard
               | labor with the water bucket? No. Can you survive wet bulb
               | events significantly higher than the threshold? No.
               | 
               | Can you survive several hours in a typical (current
               | typical) wet bulb event? Yes, definitely. Bucket of water
               | is fine.
        
               | falcolas wrote:
               | > Can you survive several hours in a typical wet bulb
               | event?
               | 
               | I'm going to vote maybe. At best, it'll be close.
               | 
               | Resting metabolic output is about half the active value I
               | provided (per NASA's PDF). That means for a bucket of
               | water that starts at 32deg, you have 5 hours before the
               | bucket is also 95deg if you discount ambient heating from
               | the air, circulatory constriction, and assuming no prior
               | conditions.
               | 
               | Since you can't discount those (and are unlikely to find
               | barely-not-frozen water for an entire city's population),
               | survival for more than an hour or two is nowhere near
               | guaranteed.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | > survival for more than an hour or two is nowhere near
               | guaranteed.
               | 
               | Does that pass your personal sniff test for
               | reasonability? Have you ever soaked in a 104degF (40degC)
               | hot tub for an hour or more? Was your survival in serious
               | doubt?
               | 
               | Wet bulb temperatures in excess of 35degC need to persist
               | for around 6 hours to represent a serious hyperthermia
               | risk. This is not a "you will die inside of 1-2 hours"
               | scenario.
        
           | DesiLurker wrote:
           | True but you should also recognize the world has more than
           | humans. most other species will not be able to survive such
           | even. Second thing is instead of counting how many dead I'd
           | rather count how many man-years of lives reduced. I'd bet
           | with every such event the average life expectancy goes down,
           | especially for old, super young & sickly. so overall impact
           | would be large number of man-years of lives removed from
           | humanity. some will be discovered immediately & some will be
           | found in retrospect.
           | 
           | Also, IMO most of deaths will come from decimation of food
           | crops brought on by climate change induced 'weather
           | randomization'. our world currently is super optimized for
           | supporting 8B people. any one of the optimizations in the
           | chain fail and we wont be able to easily recover. when
           | multiple fail realistically the world economy sill settle
           | into a non-globalized setup. that will support far fewer
           | people than exist today.
        
             | jncfhnb wrote:
             | > Second thing is instead of counting how many dead I'd
             | rather count how many man-years of lives reduced. I'd bet
             | with every such event the average life expectancy goes
             | down, especially for old, super young & sickly. so overall
             | impact would be large number of man-years of lives removed
             | from humanity.
             | 
             | I know you threw babies in here but it feels like I have to
             | point out that the old and sickly dying have a negligible
             | effect on man years lost.
             | 
             | > Also, IMO most of deaths will come from decimation of
             | food crops brought on by climate change induced 'weather
             | randomization'. our world currently is super optimized for
             | supporting 8B people. any one of the optimizations in the
             | chain fail and we wont be able to easily recover. when
             | multiple fail realistically the world economy sill settle
             | into a non-globalized setup. that will support far fewer
             | people than exist today.
             | 
             | I don't really agree that the world is as fragile as you
             | propose. But I feel like need to clarify that I'm not
             | arguing against the threat posed by climate change broadly.
        
         | thworp wrote:
         | In my experience the issue is not about taking it seriously,
         | I've rarely met someone totally unconcerned in real life. The
         | real issue is what to do about it, how to do it and in what
         | timeframe.
         | 
         | With these wet bulb events and the breathless death counts in
         | the media people get the impression that heat waves are bigger
         | killers than cold winters, when it's the opposite (and if you
         | include indirect and long-term deaths by an order of
         | magnitude).
         | 
         | There are also some serious and well connected organizations
         | advancing plans that I can only see as attempted mass murder.
         | If your plan projects no cargo ships by 2035 you will kill
         | millions from the fragility of food supply chains alone.
         | 
         | If you want to reduce fertilizer use, fine. Better targeting
         | and smarter application can reduce the consumption by at least
         | 30%. But if you want to use _no fertilizer_ you will kill
         | billions.
         | 
         | Even the more grounded and non-murderous proposals have some
         | serious question marks. Electrify almost all energy use by
         | running 300% overproduction of renewables, to be stored in
         | batteries and pump storage that isn't even planned yet while at
         | the same time increasing electricity demand by 400%? Yea sure
         | that will get done in 30 years, no problem.
         | 
         | The climate doomers always insist that the extinction event
         | will be caused by climate change destroying food supply. But
         | crops can be bred, new areas can be cultivated and ressource
         | use reduced. The fact that 6 billion of us only exists thanks
         | to chemical fertilizer, mechanized agriculture and amazing seed
         | variants is not open to argument though.
        
           | jmcqk6 wrote:
           | > In my experience the issue is not about taking it
           | seriously, I've rarely met someone totally unconcerned in
           | real life.
           | 
           | The Republican Party just held their first primary debate
           | among the presidential candidates. They were asked about
           | climate change and only one of them was willing to recognize
           | it as a problem, and my understanding is that she directed
           | action towards China and India. The candidate leading the
           | pack, Trump, was not present, but has called Climate Change a
           | Chinese hoax.
           | 
           | If you are not encountering people like this in real life,
           | you are living in a bubble yourself.
        
           | zarzavat wrote:
           | A "wet bulb event" is not just a heatwave. A heatwave is a
           | sustained period of high temperatures. You can protect
           | yourself from a heatwave by staying indoors, using a fan,
           | drinking water, etc.
           | 
           | A wet bulb event is a period of _complete local
           | inhabitability_ due to the temperature /humidity rising above
           | the threshold where the human body can cool itself by
           | sweating. These events are so far almost unheard of.
           | 
           | Anyone who is in the affected area during such an event would
           | only survive if they had air conditioning and uninterrupted
           | power. Anybody without AC would die, unless they found some
           | non-evaporative way to cool themselves.
           | 
           | It's the most terrifying natural disaster conceivable.
        
             | NotMichaelBay wrote:
             | > Anybody without AC would die
             | 
             | Couldn't you just eat ice to keep cool? Heat from blood
             | transfers to the ice as it melts and warms in the stomach,
             | then it leaves the body completely through urination.
        
               | aidenn0 wrote:
               | Yes, consuming below-ambient liquids can cool you off.
               | This will likely involve some form of refrigeration.
               | 
               | Similarly you could put a giant block of ice in front of
               | a fan and sit there; most people would call this a from
               | of AC though.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Indeed, we still refer to "tons" as the colloquial
               | measure of cooling capacity in AC.
               | 
               | A ton of cooling being defined as 12000BTU/hr, or the
               | latent heat of fusion of 1 ton of ice at 0degC being
               | consumed via melting over 24 hours.
        
             | p1mrx wrote:
             | > Anyone who is in the affected area during such an event
             | would only survive if they had air conditioning and
             | uninterrupted power.
             | 
             | Could you survive in a basement?
        
               | ChatGTP wrote:
               | Or in a river ?
        
               | p1mrx wrote:
               | It's a lot easier to build a basement than a river.
        
               | ChatGTP wrote:
               | I was actually serious ?
        
               | aidenn0 wrote:
               | The really short answer: If the wet-bulb temperature in
               | your basement is sufficiently low, then yes. Otherwise
               | no.
               | 
               | Note that for a small poorly-ventilated basement, the
               | humidity will rise from respiration, thus increasing the
               | wet-bulb temperature. For a well-ventilated basement, the
               | air temperature will approach the outdoor temperature,
               | thus increasing the wet-bulb temperature.
               | 
               | If you have a giant, well-shaded, pool of water, the
               | water temperature will usually be below the peak air
               | temperature (water has high thermal mass, so it will take
               | a long time for it to come up to the ambient temperature,
               | even at high humidity, where evaporation effects are
               | negligible) so that's another non-AC method of staying
               | cool.
               | 
               | In any event pools of water and basements don't scale to
               | densely populated areas.
        
         | HumblyTossed wrote:
         | I don't even think that would change people's minds. They'll
         | just call it fake news and blame it on someone's laptop.
        
         | hkpack wrote:
         | > in my opinion, a lot of folks won't take climate change
         | seriously until it adversely affects their way of life in such
         | a dramatic way that they cannot deny it any longer.
         | 
         | It won't. People you are talking about have access to air
         | conditioning. They will not care about people dying in distant
         | places, whom become an annoyance after a while. They will just
         | wish people die silently without complaining.
        
           | dahwolf wrote:
           | As is the case with the new social media meme where
           | "Europoors" don't have ACs and should be ridiculed for it.
        
           | cogman10 wrote:
           | Hate to agree but yeah. We've already seen a number of deadly
           | heat waves in Europe.
           | 
           | In 2003, 70,000 people died in the EU from a heat wave [1]. A
           | fact that is never really comes up in talks about climate
           | change.
           | 
           | The death toll could be millions and we'd still see deniers
           | clamoring that we need to burn more coal for grid stability
           | or whatever.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20230717-parisian
           | s-a...
        
             | aeternum wrote:
             | More people die of cold than heat, a fact that never comes
             | up in talks about climate change.
             | 
             | Obviously there's a limit, but based on the data about
             | lives lost due to cold vs. warm temps, we should expect
             | increased global temps to first save human lives since a
             | lot more people freeze to death.
        
               | ironlake wrote:
               | And think of all the money we'll save on jackets
        
             | HPsquared wrote:
             | The short-term patch is to install air conditioning (or go
             | to the mall, or even an air conditioned car). That's what
             | people at risk of this will do.
        
       | olliecornelia wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
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