[HN Gopher] LK-99 isn't a superconductor
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       LK-99 isn't a superconductor
        
       Author : Brajeshwar
       Score  : 1093 points
       Date   : 2023-08-16 16:17 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | beders wrote:
       | Well, maybe this is the beginning of another cold fusion story.
       | 
       | Despite failures to reproduce the Pons/Fleischmann results, it
       | spawned a whole new field: LENR which has very interesting yearly
       | conferences.
        
         | kergonath wrote:
         | Not exactly. Cold fusion was contradicted by our knowledge of
         | Physics at the time. Room-temperature superconductors are a
         | field of active study, because even though we don't know one,
         | we think they might exist and the industrial applications could
         | be world-changing. The response was not "room-temperature
         | superconductors cannot exist", as with cold fusion, but more
         | "this sounds implausible and your preprint is dodgy;
         | nevertheless we'll try to replicate it".
        
       | 1-6 wrote:
       | Once again, South Korea's academia overwhelms/overpromises but
       | under-delivers.
       | 
       | This is surely going to be a 'boy who cried wolf' moment for
       | Korean schools.
        
         | RicoElectrico wrote:
         | Yeah, stem cell capital of the world and all that.
        
         | dmboyd wrote:
         | On root-cause, I wonder if it's some variation or combination
         | of "publish or perish" linked to failure averse political and
         | cultural structures? I don't think the circumstances are unique
         | to SK as you see similar effect globally where success is
         | measured purely quantitatively (I.e X number of published
         | papers for promotion, X% score on a test to avoid military
         | service). One thing I can't get my head around is how the
         | surrounding narrative was so bizarre. Particularly the "death
         | bed dying wish". Is this a result of 20+ years of lead
         | poisoning combined with aforementioned political issues?
        
       | throwaway4220 wrote:
       | " Derrick van Gennep, a former condensed-matter researcher at
       | Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, who now works in
       | finance "
       | 
       | This is always sad to see but I get it
        
         | OJFord wrote:
         | And I get why you say that, but also way more people want PhDs
         | (or even to work in academic research) than the system
         | supports.
         | 
         | i.e. you have not only to resist the industry moneybags, but
         | also defy odds anyway
         | 
         | It's like being a former actor (of undisclosed repute) turned
         | waiter if Hollywood A-list pay was not great (and B-list
         | awful).
        
         | philomath_mn wrote:
         | Many such cases (most of the quants at my last job had PhDs in
         | Physics or Chemistry)
        
       | agrippanux wrote:
       | My wife will be very happy.
       | 
       | When I explained to her the potential if it truly was the
       | breakthrough being reported, her first reaction was:
       | 
       | "I hope we establish a government agency to regulate everything
       | floating around because I don't want to get bumped into by random
       | stuff".
        
       | ok123456 wrote:
       | This shows that the properties that were observed aren't as a
       | result of a pure single crystal. If the observed properties can
       | be explained and controlled by dislocation dynamics or other
       | mechanisms of the impurities, then it may still be of interest.
        
       | ACV001 wrote:
       | imagine this - the government took over and covered up with "not
       | working" theory. Maybe a key ingredient is missing which was not
       | mentioned in the original paper.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | Lockal wrote:
       | I'm more upset that it was possible to successfully register a
       | patent on the LK-99. On the one hand, patent services seem to be
       | not obliged to check the workability of the patents, but on the
       | other hand this is absolutely malicious activity, as it is a
       | direct road to patent trolling and fraud on non-existent
       | intellectual property.
        
       | valine wrote:
       | Good science takes time. Anyone making definitive claims,
       | including this article, is full of it.
       | 
       | LK-99 is probably not a super conductor, key word probably. It'll
       | be definitive when the original samples have been independently
       | tested.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | dkroy wrote:
       | How did all of these labs in China end up replicating the results
       | of the paper? Were they just not reputable labs?
        
         | philomath_mn wrote:
         | Here is a list of replication attempts from another comment
         | [0]. Looks like most of the replications were only on the weak
         | levitation property, which could be explained by diamagnetism
         | or impurities.
         | 
         | [0] https://forums.spacebattles.com/threads/claims-of-room-
         | tempe...
        
       | progrus wrote:
       | One more try at the "no superconductor here, it's aliens, we
       | swear" hoax before Trump does his counterattack on 8/21?
       | 
       | This is getting ridiculous. And very entertaining.
        
       | legohead wrote:
       | Company that has already lied in the past lies again, and
       | everyone eats it up, again...
       | 
       | The internet has taught me to never trust material science
       | advancements at face value. Batteries, solar power,
       | superconductors, nanomaterials.. Even when they legit work, there
       | is usually a straight forward reason why it just isn't feasible,
       | and that is conveniently left out of the press release. I have to
       | go to the HN comment section to get disappointed once again.
        
         | lIl-IIIl wrote:
         | "Company that has already lied in the past lies again, and
         | everyone eats it up, again" - what are you referring to?
        
       | m3kw9 wrote:
       | Thats the first news that really torpedo this sc claim.(a Cooper
       | sulphide expert recognizing the main claim of 104c of a
       | resistance drop was in fact a know property of a non
       | superconductor). It's too much of a coincidence plus the guy
       | wouldn't lie.
        
       | pbj1968 wrote:
       | I still remember the flailing I got around here when I dared to
       | mention South Korean labs have a long history of making bold
       | claims.
        
       | throwawaymaths wrote:
       | It's pretty wild that the scientific community can make such a
       | judgement on a reasonably difficult to assess result in 2 weeks.
       | This is not proper peer review (lower case p).
        
       | shekispeaks wrote:
       | They should have also included a quote from CISR an Indian lab
       | that go there about the same time as many of the American labs
       | https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.03544
        
       | sethbannon wrote:
       | I felt like folks were getting too optimistic in the early days
       | and now I feel folks are getting way to pessimistic. We don't
       | know if any of these failed replication experiments actually made
       | the same LK-99 the Korean team did. The only way of knowing for
       | sure if LK-99 is a room temp superconductor is if outside labs
       | test _the samples the Korean team has made_. It 's entirely
       | possible that the exact impurities in their material caused by
       | their exact manufacturing process are required for
       | superconducting properties to emerge. Seems like that will be
       | done in the next few weeks. Still betting against it working but
       | keeping my fingers crossed.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | hospitalJail wrote:
       | I love how quickly replication happened. This is science.
       | 
       | Medicine/psychology/sociology and their inability to do
       | replication is not science.
        
         | LanceH wrote:
         | No replication in medicine? It's biology and messy, but how
         | many do you know with polio? Lots of science going on there.
        
       | vecter wrote:
       | _In their preprint, the Korean authors note one particular
       | temperature at which LK-99's showed a tenfold drop in
       | resistivity, from about 0.02 ohms per centimetre to 0.002 ohms
       | per cm. "They were very precise about it. 104.8oC," says Prashant
       | Jain, a chemist at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
       | "I was like, wait a minute, I know this temperature."
       | 
       | The reaction that synthesizes LK-99 uses an unbalanced recipe:
       | for every 1 part copper-doped lead phosphate crystal -- pure
       | LK-99 -- it makes, it produces 17 parts copper and 5 parts
       | sulfur. These leftovers lead to numerous impurities -- especially
       | copper sulfide, which the Korean team reported in its sample.
       | 
       | Jain, a copper-sulfide expert, remembered 104oC as the
       | temperature at which Cu2S undergoes a phase transition if exposed
       | to air. Below that temperature, Cu2S's resistivity drops
       | dramatically -- a signal almost identical to LK-99's purported
       | superconducting phase transition. "I was almost in disbelief that
       | they missed it." Jain published a preprint on the important
       | confounding effect on 7 August.
       | 
       | [...]
       | 
       | "That was the moment where I said, 'Well, obviously, that's what
       | made them think this was a superconductor,'" says Fuhrer. "The
       | nail in the coffin was this copper sulfide thing."_
       | 
       | Science is hard. Kudos to everyone involved for trying to
       | replicate it and figuring this puzzle out.
        
         | djtango wrote:
         | So they saw a large change in resistivity at 104C but what's
         | not clear from this excerpt is why the Cu2S was a confounding
         | factor, or isnt interesting.
         | 
         | Is it that LK99 had impurities of Cu2S and the properties of
         | Cu2S dominated but we already know things about Cu2S?
        
           | masklinn wrote:
           | Per the article, CU2S was well-characterised in the 50s.
           | 
           | The CU2S was a confounding factor because 104C is where it
           | undergoes phase changes, which drastically change _its_
           | resistivity. So the change in resistivity was from the CU2S
           | impurities, not the LK99 itself. As the tail end of the
           | article notes, when researchers grew a completely pure
           | crystal of LK99 they got a strong insulator (in the mega-
           | ohms).
           | 
           | And as a nearby commenter notes, neither 0.02 ohm-cm nor
           | 0.002 ohm-cm is even a good conductor: typical conductor
           | metals (gold, copper, silver, aluminum) are under 3e-6.
        
         | darth_avocado wrote:
         | > Jain, a copper-sulfide expert
         | 
         | I would have never known that people are actual experts in one
         | material. This is impressive.
        
           | transcriptase wrote:
           | Most PhDs are incredibly specific and don't necessary
           | indicate broad knowledge of a field as a whole.
           | 
           | Which is why you should be wary of "experts" making overly
           | broad claims about topics within their field but far outside
           | their area of expertise.
           | 
           | Early on during Covid you would see postdoc infectious
           | disease experts on every news channel 3 times daily giving
           | their takes. Some of whom maybe took a 3000 level course in
           | epidemiology when they were 21 and did their PhD on nematode
           | infections in a single population of freshwater clams.
           | Technically an infectious disease expert but I don't
           | particularly care what they have to say about Covid over a
           | random person on the street either.
        
             | parker_mountain wrote:
             | > Technically an infectious disease expert but I don't
             | particularly care what they have to say about Covid over a
             | random person on the street either.
             | 
             | I would absolutely care more what they had to say over the
             | rando, especially if they prefaced it with their level
             | experience.
        
               | madrox wrote:
               | Depends on the grade they got in that 3000 course, though
               | I tend to agree with you
        
               | exmadscientist wrote:
               | Yeah, uh, I wouldn't.
               | 
               | There was a B- or C-list physics blogger a few years back
               | whose graduate homework I used to grade. (I still
               | remember this one, so that should tell you something.) He
               | got very angry that I gave him zero credit for one
               | particular question. But he:
               | 
               | - did not use the standard/expected approach to this
               | problem
               | 
               | - did not explain what he was doing well enough for me to
               | find him any partial credit (this is not easy!)
               | 
               | - had a pile of impenetrable unnecessary very complex
               | alien math that I wasn't going to try to cut through
               | given that
               | 
               | - his final answer was very, very wrong
               | 
               | - in fact, it was wrong by _26 orders of magnitude_
               | 
               | - and he didn't have the skill to notice something was
               | wrong (and, yes, I was lenient with students who noticed
               | final answers were weird even if they couldn't/didn't fix
               | it up)
               | 
               | - also, he was a major asshole (no surprise given that
               | he's complaining about _this_ "indignity") who was
               | 
               | - somehow still causing #MeToo problems in the 21st
               | century despite being under 30 (seriously??)
               | 
               | So if that's who gets held up as "authorities", even
               | minor ones, forgive me if I don't listen too much. I'll
               | choose who I trust.
        
               | ajani wrote:
               | Which point would be enough by itself for you to discount
               | him totally?
        
               | parker_mountain wrote:
               | I didn't say authority, and I didn't say trust blindly. I
               | just said I'd trust someone with baseline qualifications
               | over a random (presumably unqualified) person. lmao
        
             | godelski wrote:
             | > Most PhDs are incredibly specific and don't necessary
             | indicate broad knowledge of a field as a whole
             | 
             | > Which is why you should be wary of "experts" making
             | overly broad claims about topics within their field but far
             | outside their area of expertise.
             | 
             | I mostly agree, but also I think it depends on how strong
             | you are suggesting this and if you also acknowledge that
             | there is high variance between domains as to the variance
             | within the distribution of knowledge. Your last sentence is
             | where I really disagree. There is a big difference.
             | 
             | But I think for the general person, there's 2 things of
             | note: 1) just because you should be wary of an expert
             | talking outside their niche (but inside their broader
             | domain), doesn't mean that their opinion is equal to that
             | of a layman. I'd still trust the mostly-expert over the
             | non-expert any day. The true-expert is often very hard to
             | find tbh. Look for nuance and you'll increase the
             | likelihood of finding the expert. 2) It is easy to confuse
             | expert talk with arrogance or pretentiousness. It is also
             | easy to be that way when talking to a layman as the nature
             | of those conversations will never be between peers, but
             | more akin to a teacher and student. The two parties are not
             | equal, but we're primed to treat any non-academic setting
             | conversation as if we are. The experts often have serious
             | doubts and are far more self-conscious than they appear.
             | You just won't see that unless you're a peer and can speak
             | the language, because experts are also specifically taught
             | to defend their work and speak with confidence. Your hint
             | is how they respond to critiques from other experts (but
             | that's not easy to do accurately as there's probably a lot
             | of nuance you aren't seeing and they are speaking a
             | different language even if you understand all the words).
             | 
             | Everyone should always be skeptical though. That's for
             | certain. But I just want to make sure we don't turn
             | knowledge into a binary setting: expert vs idiot. There's a
             | lot in-between and that matters a lot.
        
               | bogtog wrote:
               | > I'd still trust the mostly-expert over the non-expert
               | any day. The true-expert is often very hard to find tbh.
               | 
               | Right, you can always find somebody more expert than
               | someone else. The level of specificity that some people
               | expect for a variety of problems will leave only a dozen
               | or so people in the world who can call themselves
               | experts.
        
             | whoisthemachine wrote:
             | Also why she might believe this is an obvious confounding
             | factor and it was clearly not obvious to the authors, or
             | the rest of the world!
        
           | nvm0n2 wrote:
           | https://www.quora.com/In-Tesla-and-SpaceX-how-much-of-the-
           | te...
           | 
           |  _A number of years back I had an email from a bloke called
           | Elon Musk. I was vaguely aware of who he was but not very.
           | 
           | At the time I was the global expert in a very weird alloy
           | (the market for it was perhaps 5 or 10 tonnes a year. A very
           | weird and minority interest alloy). It was aluminium
           | scandium, which the Russians had developed to compete with
           | Nasa's use of aluminium lithium. In many ways a better alloy
           | too. And, obviously, there were possible uses in rockets and
           | so on (rather more in something like a Shuttle than in simple
           | rockets though).
           | 
           | OK, so I get this email and it asks me whether this aluminium
           | scandium is worth it, will it make my rockets lighter, asks
           | Musk. No, not really, it'll make them easier to weld but not
           | lighter particularly. Which was pretty much the end of the
           | exchange.
           | 
           | So, when people ask me whether Musk does tech stuff I would
           | have to say yes. Because he tracked down a one man company
           | that knew the straight answer to the question he needed
           | answering. OK, you might not think that is engineering,
           | preferring to think of it as people using a slide rule to
           | work it all out themselves. But finding the bloke who knows
           | the answer and asking them is engineering to me - it's still
           | getting to the right answer, isn't it?_
        
             | mrguyorama wrote:
             | >But finding the bloke who knows the answer and asking them
             | is engineering to me - it's still getting to the right
             | answer, isn't it?
             | 
             | That's called management, not engineering.
        
             | twic wrote:
             | Scandium-aluminium alloy was popular for bicycle frames
             | briefly in the 2000s. On-One made a frame wittily called
             | the Scandal from it. I have a Scandal frame, but it's a
             | second generation one where they dropped the scandium but
             | kept the name!
        
           | OJFord wrote:
           | Well it doesn't preclude him being expert (or just doing
           | work) in anything else?
           | 
           | e.g. you might be a C++ expert, but also proficient in
           | Python, and currently working professionally in Rust?
        
             | darth_avocado wrote:
             | Right but it's more like someone is an expert in the
             | "async" method. You'd expect them to be expert in whatever
             | language they're using, so the framing threw me off.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | The reality is that the real world is infinitely more
               | complex than the toys we make in the software world.
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | Yeah I get what you mean. Could just be a quirk of the
               | reporting too - like you might write a lot of async
               | python, comment on some hot topic case using that
               | knowledge, GIL removal say, and then get labelled 'async
               | functions expert Darth Avocado' when really you'd never
               | think of yourself that way.
        
           | lolinder wrote:
           | It looks like he doesn't specialize exclusively in copper
           | sulfide. His most cited works are to do with gold, and he has
           | articles on a bunch of different materials:
           | 
           | https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7WQhABIAAAAJ&hl=en.
           | ..
        
             | deaddodo wrote:
             | Yeah, OP seems to be confusing expert knowledge in a field
             | with exclusive knowledge in a field.
        
           | lm28469 wrote:
           | Some fields are so advanced that people are expert in one
           | single material in very specific settings. There are some
           | really exotic things out there that are barely used/studied
        
           | godelski wrote:
           | Oh for sure. Expertise is exceptionally narrow. It's not a
           | super low variance value, as there is spillover
           | (physics/concepts/math/whatever share many similar
           | principles), but most people __vastly__ underestimate the
           | depth and complexity of any given topic, no matter how
           | mundane and simple it may seem. I mean a good example is that
           | you'll find books on o-rings, nails, screws, bolts, etc that
           | are individually over a thousand pages. Hell, The Art of
           | Electronics -- a book this community is probably more
           | familiar with -- is a fucking godsend, but even being over 1k
           | pages and generally a reference manual it is still lacking.
           | Even if you get the second book (X Chapters) with an
           | additional 500 pages!
           | 
           | This is also why experts can often sniff one another out on
           | online forums like this. There's a subtly to the language
           | that is used which conveys an understanding of many deeper
           | nuances than were a novice or even someone with a
           | undergraduate would use to discuss a topic. There's a common
           | misnomer that you don't understand something unless you can
           | explain it to a layman (probably invented by a layman to
           | justify their lack of understanding), but accuracy and
           | complexity are tightly coupled. A concept with x% accuracy
           | has a minimum of y complexity. But also knowing this can help
           | you sniff out experts in fields you aren't also an expert in,
           | but of course your classification accuracy drops since you
           | are introducing more noise. Still, a useful guide if you're
           | trying to figure out who to listen to. Obviously much easier
           | said than done.
        
           | morelisp wrote:
           | He is likely an expert in many other materials too.
        
           | at_a_remove wrote:
           | One of my professors was an expert in the Helium-3 isotope.
           | Spent a lot of time on the second excited state.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | That's some of the most interesting matter.
        
           | mensetmanusman wrote:
           | I work with people who have basically researched amorphous
           | silicon for decades.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | Yeah. Not surprising. My Master's supervisor did, though he
             | branched out after a while. I know people who've spent
             | almost their entire career on iron.
        
               | Tijdreiziger wrote:
               | Being that this is HN, I initially parsed 'iron' as
               | 'hardware'...
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | Well, there is some of it in most hardware :D
        
           | dougmwne wrote:
           | My partner's grandmother spent her entire career researching
           | a single bacteria species and its reaction to a single
           | environmental toxin.
        
           | kergonath wrote:
           | You have to (though in general we're expert on a couple of
           | classes of compounds rather than just one). The literature is
           | just too vast to follow otherwise. Particularly in
           | fashionable fields with loads of funding like high-
           | temperature superconductors, battery materials, PV materials,
           | fuel cells, things like that.
        
         | deepspace wrote:
         | When I first saw the quoted resistivity, 0.002 ohms per cm, my
         | thought was "this is not even a conductor, let alone a
         | superconductor". 0.2 Ohms/m is several orders of magnitude less
         | conductive than most metals, and solidly in the semiconductor
         | range.
        
           | rubberpoliceman wrote:
           | Resistivity is measured in ohms * meter, so this may be a
           | unit conversion issue...
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Right? That's what's not clear to me either. If they got
           | readings for superconductivity and Cu2S impurities were the
           | cause then fantastic, Cu2S is the room temperature
           | superconductor? Just get a load of that instead then.
           | 
           | Or perhaps the way they measured the whole experiment was
           | completely inane from the start if a simple conductor passes
           | with flying colours. With that and them presenting
           | ferromagnetism as the Messner effect makes me kind of
           | question the competence of the entire analysis.
        
         | [deleted]
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | LordDragonfang wrote:
         | >"I was like, wait a minute, I know this temperature."
         | 
         | This is an incredibly funny quote out of context, and the
         | absurdity of it betrays an extreme domain expertise.
        
           | venusenvy47 wrote:
           | It's almost like "I know Unix" from Jurassic Park, but not as
           | silly.
        
             | justincredible wrote:
             | [dead]
        
           | duskwuff wrote:
           | There's probably plenty of "computer numbers" you'd recognize
           | immediately.
           | 
           | ("It stops working after 65,535 seconds? Wait a minute, I
           | know that number.")
        
             | LordDragonfang wrote:
             | Oh yeah, definitely. I almost included "December 31, 1969"
             | as an example (wait a minute, I know that date!), but
             | decided it wasn't arcane enough.
             | 
             | I think a lot of IT/CS people have almost parasocial
             | relationships with powers of two that seem very silly to
             | outsiders.
        
         | jimmySixDOF wrote:
         | Iris, the fabled ethnicly Russian LK99 Homebrewer with the
         | Catgirl Girlfriend, is not convinced :
         | 
         | - "70% CuS impurity" are you sure you didn't grab the
         | Chalcocite by accident?
         | 
         | - There's no significant CuS in samples prepared at 925degC.
         | There cannot be.
         | 
         | - I tried forcefully introducing sulfide into pbo, it just.
         | Doesn't work. Even at 600degC. PbS reduces lead in 2 PbO to
         | 3Pb, leaving as SO2.
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/iris_IGB/status/1691840478189384097?t=cB...
        
           | dvt wrote:
           | I really wish less people would give pseudo-anon accounts
           | this much credence. Literally no good science has (ever?)
           | been done on Twitter/X, it's mostly just stupid equivocating.
           | Much thanks goes out to the actual scientists out there
           | working in labs and publishing their findings.
           | 
           | The academic/publishing process is _far_ from perfect already
           | (conflicts of interest, funding, political pressure,
           | institutional pressure, personal pride), now imagine throwing
           | a  "Catgirl Girlfriend" (that trolls on an anonymous social
           | media account) into the mix.
           | 
           | Free speech is fine, it's the listeners I have a problem
           | with.
        
             | not-my-account wrote:
             | A 4chan user solved a 25yo combinatorics problem. If it can
             | be done there why not twitter
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18292061
        
               | dvt wrote:
               | This is a bad counter-argument. What do you think is the
               | overwhelming product of ranting and raving of anime-
               | picture "scientists" on Twitter: scientific muddying of
               | waters that confuse laypeople and promulgate
               | disinformation, or actual theorem-solving?
        
         | ugh123 wrote:
         | Imagine if we could get all the materials science experts
         | tucked away in a lab for a year working together with a large
         | budget...
        
           | IG_Semmelweiss wrote:
           | it took 1 weekend of developers and support staff, tucked
           | away in a conference room, for overstock.com to accept crypto
           | payments on their site.
           | 
           | I think we can do better!
        
           | otterley wrote:
           | They'd be a juicy target for some kind of malfeasance. Never
           | put all the experts in the same location!
        
           | makeitdouble wrote:
           | Their family would be miserable, their kids would swear to
           | never become a material science expert, and they'd all be
           | missing on the cross discussions with other fields and
           | inspirations coming from outside the material science world ?
           | 
           | Not really trying to be flippant, but that pretty much feels
           | like a James Bond villain fantasy, and only a few select
           | people would probably enjoy the setting.
           | 
           | We kinda have a real world equivalent with people working on
           | the LHC by the way.
        
             | ugh123 wrote:
             | Maybe someone with a billion dollars could re-locate them
             | and their families onto some posh island all expenses paid.
             | If Elon had instead invested 40B into this and other
             | tactical science projects rather than dump it into Twitter,
             | imagine the possibilities lol.
        
       | tonycoco wrote:
       | "70% CuS impurity"
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | koreanguy wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | dekhn wrote:
       | my only criticism is to the people who, without real background
       | in the area, read the paper, thought the synthesis was "easy",
       | raced to get the reagents only to realize that you can't easily
       | order somet things without a prior relationship and trust with a
       | chemical supplier, and then showed some antimagnetism in their
       | shitty examples, without understanding that that phenomenon isn't
       | conclusive evidence. It's sort of an example of the "why don't
       | you just...." phenomenon where a noob tells an expert that
       | solving a problem is easy...
       | 
       | I guess I also criticize whomever published the original paper.
       | They did just a bad enough job to get people excited, but experts
       | pretty quickly noticed major flaws in the article which cast
       | enough doubt to pretty much reject even attemptiong a
       | replication.
       | 
       | Well, i suppose to be fair, I should also criticize the theorists
       | who came out and made crazy claims saying that theory supports
       | this being a superconductor- Konerding's 27th law, amended, says:
       | "Given a ridiculous experimental claim, there will always be at
       | least 3 theorists who publish a paper saying that the theory
       | supports the claim".
       | 
       | Anybody who lived through Fleishman and Pons (and fusion in
       | general) has learned to be highly skeptical, up front, and the
       | expectation is that the publisher/author of the article has done
       | an excellent job making their findings reproducible.
        
         | acedTrex wrote:
         | The original paper wasn't published, it was leaked
        
         | bacon_waffle wrote:
         | Why criticize? People spend their time and money on pointless
         | pursuits all the time.
        
           | dekhn wrote:
           | My goal in criticism is to guide interested players towards
           | more fruitful pursuits. I don't want to see invalid science
           | sucking up all the attention and crowding out legitimate but
           | boring science.
        
             | bacon_waffle wrote:
             | Negative experimental results are valid science, aren't
             | they?
             | 
             | If you believe attention is a 0-sum game (I don't, but am
             | trying to understand), why not focus criticism on those
             | people spending time on any number of other pursuits that
             | are even further from fruitful. It just seems like, for
             | whatever your idea of "fruitful" is, there are entire
             | industries and institutions that are focused on taking
             | attention away from fruitful pursuits.
        
       | pistachiopro wrote:
       | You can publish an article with a title like this and probably
       | not end up embarrassed. Room temperature and pressure super
       | conductors seem hard enough to find that chances are any given
       | paper claiming to have found one will end up with a more mundane
       | explanation. And I do think the information about the phase
       | change of Cu2S is highly relevant, as it points at a way the
       | original researches my have fooled themselves.
       | 
       | The dismissal of the partial levitation as ferromagnetism, on the
       | other hand, doesn't strike me as especially robust.
       | Ferromagnetism explains the partial levitation of tiny fragments
       | of material generated by people trying to reproduce LK-99. Very
       | light and thin pieces of ferromagnetic material will align
       | themselves with a magnetic field. For example, Andrew McCalip
       | (who streamed himself attempting to reproduce the material in his
       | rocket startup's lab) generated a partially levitating fragment
       | and sent it into USC, where they determined it was ferromagnetic.
       | But bulk pieces of ferromagnetic material will just stick to
       | magnets (or if they are magnetized, they will stick to one side
       | and be unstably repelled from the other).
       | 
       | Ferromagnetism doesn't explain the levitation demonstrated in the
       | videos put out by the original researches, though. Barring fraud,
       | the most likely explanation for that kind of levitation is
       | diamagnetism. The article mentions Derrick van Gennep recreating
       | the partial levitation video with a chunk of pyrolytic graphite
       | (one of the most diamagnetic materials we know of, other than
       | superconductors), supergluing iron filings to a corner of it to
       | anchor it to the magnet. The levitation in that video comes from
       | diamagnetism, not ferromagnetism. LK-99 is primarily made of
       | lead, not graphite, which is 5-10 times denser, so the
       | diamagnetic effect must be at least that much stronger than pure
       | pyrolytic graphite. The thing is, as the rest of the article
       | points out, the supposed main constituents of LK-99 have now been
       | extensively studied, and none of them appear to be especially
       | diamagnetic, so something in those samples the original team
       | recorded must be extremely diamagnetic to make up for it!
        
         | floxy wrote:
         | >so something in those samples the original team recorded must
         | be extremely diamagnetic to make up for it!
         | 
         | I wonder what would have happened if they would have pushed a
         | paper out talking about anomalously high diamagnetism and
         | skipped any mentions of superconducting. And let people
         | speculate if it is a superconductor. I suppose we wouldn't be
         | talking about it. But I hope that we see some group try to
         | replicate the diamagnetic material properties.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | BurningFrog wrote:
       | OK, but I have a real good feeling about LK-100!
        
       | zephyrthenoble wrote:
       | Watching this unfold on HN has been eerily similar to watching
       | r/UFOs whenever someone comes forward with "proof" of
       | UFOs/coverups/whatever. I never want to rain on anyone's parade,
       | as proof of ETs or room temperature superconductors would be
       | great, but the hype only serves to obfuscate the truth. At this
       | point, I'm prepped to disbelieve because of the obvious over-
       | hyping.
       | 
       | People want these things to be true so bad that they will twist
       | every detail to fit the narrative they want. It would be funny,
       | if it weren't so sad.
        
         | postalrat wrote:
         | "but the hype only serves to obfuscate the truth"
         | 
         | Is that true? Do you think the Koreans or anyone would have
         | made more progress finding the truth without the hype?
        
           | zephyrthenoble wrote:
           | Are you implying that people on Hacker News saying LK-99 is a
           | superconductor helped the scientific community in some way?
        
             | chpatrick wrote:
             | Did it "obfuscate the truth"?
             | 
             | The truth was only discovered because the hype made a lot
             | of scientists investigate the material.
        
             | malux85 wrote:
             | Strawman argument - You are reducing the comment to "Hacker
             | News" when thats not at all what they said, they said "The
             | hype".
             | 
             | For sure the hype caused a lot more focus on
             | reproducability attempts than it would have got otherwise.
        
             | mgfist wrote:
             | The interest and intrigue around LK-99 made science cool.
             | There will be all kinds of positive knock on effects of
             | this - least of which is that we got down to the bottom of
             | LK-99 years before it would've happened if the preprint
             | never got published.
        
             | hackinthebochs wrote:
             | Who on HN said that with enough confidence and credibility
             | to do enough damage to the conversation such that it would
             | be better had the conversation not happen at all?
        
             | mrguyorama wrote:
             | Do you honestly believe HN discussing this had ANY affect
             | on ANYONE?
        
         | hindsightbias wrote:
         | At least superconductors are a real thing.
        
           | zephyrthenoble wrote:
           | That's a fair point. Maybe people did react similarly, but
           | the LK-99 hype was at the very least grounded in scientific
           | methodology.
           | 
           | I should keep that in perspective and be a little less harsh.
        
             | saalweachter wrote:
             | Eh, you should still be a little harsh, though.
             | 
             | A common thread in a lot of these stories is people pushing
             | the idea that The Authorities are not to be trusted. The
             | government is lying to you about UFOs! The scientific
             | establishment has been sitting on room temperature
             | superconductors for 20 years!
             | 
             | And sure, question authority.
             | 
             | But also question the people telling you to question
             | authority.
             | 
             | Because contrarians are just _ripe_ for affinity fraud, and
             | while most of that affinity fraud is centered around alt-
             | med, the cultivation of a pervasive distrust of authority
             | is part of what enables the scam.
        
       | feralderyl wrote:
       | Has anyone ever worked out a "proof" that a room
       | temperature/ambient pressure superconductor can even be made?
       | Like is there a formula or something that can be pointed to that
       | says, according to everything we know its even possible?
        
         | spott wrote:
         | No. We don't understand superconductivity well enough to even
         | attempt something like that.
         | 
         | I think we can say that some of the _current_ superconductor
         | mechanisms don't allow it at room temperature, but we don't
         | have enough of an overarching theory of superconductivity to
         | say something like that more generally.
        
       | popilewiz wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | JohnDeHope wrote:
       | Which is more likely in our lifetime: aliens, or an ambient
       | superconductor?
        
         | mindcrime wrote:
         | I'm going to vote for "ambient superconductor" even after this.
         | At least we know superconductors actually exist at all, and the
         | history of the field reflects incremental progress in terms of
         | increasing the threshold temperature for superconductivity.
         | With "aliens" we don't have much to go on at all, aside from
         | vague Fermi-equation'esque appeals to "There must _be_ aliens
         | because the universe is so big[1] " or whatever.
         | 
         | [1]: I actually agree that it's very likely that alien life
         | either has existed, does exist, or will exist _somewhere_ in
         | the universe. My skepticism is towards the possibility of that
         | life visiting Earth. And mostly for the exact same reason:
         | because the universe is so damn big.
        
       | kergonath wrote:
       | Just a reminder that's not everything one can find in a paper
       | (never mind a preprint) is true. The response from the community
       | was great. Modellers doing some electronic structure
       | calculations, synthesis experts trying to re-create the material,
       | people doing all sorts of characterisation. The closest parallel
       | I can think of is the faster-than-light neutrinos from a couple
       | of years ago. Except that this time there were many teams and
       | individuals all over the world trying to replicate the results.
       | The material was supposedly easy to make, the reagents were quite
       | easy to find, room-temperature conductivity measurements are not
       | too difficult. There was a lot of enthusiasm and activity, which
       | was really motivating.
       | 
       | The fact that it could not be replicated is not surprising,
       | considering the sloppiness of the original preprint. But still,
       | it was a very public example of science in action.
       | 
       | What was also interesting is the response from some corners of
       | the Internet who were more than happy to bash scientists who were
       | supposedly trying to cover up their own incompetence by debunking
       | the plucky researchers from a brave private institution. Well,
       | most often if something sounds too good to be true, that's
       | because it is.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | cynusx wrote:
       | I'm curious (but not really qualified to understand) if the
       | theoretical calculations on viable superconducting structures was
       | a new insight on its own.
       | 
       | If there is a theoretical model for ambient temperature
       | superconductivity, then that should help us zoom in on potential
       | materials that could be an actual superconductor someday?
        
       | harha_ wrote:
       | I don't understand how did LK-99 create such wuss in the first
       | place.
        
         | Knee_Pain wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | usrbinbash wrote:
         | Because a room-temp, amb-press superconductor, that can be made
         | from readly available cheap materials, would be almost on par
         | with the discovery of fire in terms of importance for our
         | species technological capabilities.
         | 
         | Even the simplest example of what that would mean is already
         | amazing to our society: Imagine a power-grid that no longer
         | loses power to electrical resistence in the wires.
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | Cheap doesn't mean free. We can already reduce resistance by
           | piling in more cheap metal, but it becomes more effort than
           | it's worth.
           | 
           | And superconductors have limits on how much power they can
           | carry.
           | 
           | But most importantly, the power grid doesn't lose all that
           | much to resistance. And you'd still lose power to
           | transmission line capacitance against the ground.
        
             | usrbinbash wrote:
             | > Cheap doesn't mean free
             | 
             | Means cheap enough to be mass produced, and available.
             | 
             | > But most importantly, the power grid doesn't lose all
             | that much to resistance
             | 
             | Laws of scaling, even a small percentage of power lost to
             | resistence is a hige overall loss, the avoidance of which
             | is desirable.
             | 
             | And as I said, this is only the simplest example.
        
           | breuleux wrote:
           | > Imagine a power-grid that no longer loses power to
           | electrical resistence in the wires.
           | 
           | From what I can see the power loss is in the 8-15% range.
           | It'd be awesome to save that, but it's not game changing, and
           | you have to take into account the cost of replacing the
           | wires.
        
             | BirAdam wrote:
             | Well, that's true, but there are also more important
             | applications: reducing heat and power loss in chips,
             | increasing the efficiency of electric motors, increasing
             | the efficiency of electromagnets, decreasing charge times
             | for batteries, and so on. I may not say as important as
             | fire, but it would certainly be in the same league as the
             | integrated circuit.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | The electromagnets are losing a notable amount to
               | resistance in a way that superconducting could help. The
               | chips and batteries are not.
               | 
               | I don't know why people even bring up batteries. They're
               | not going to make any difference to batteries that I'm
               | aware of. In theory you could use superconducting coils
               | as storage, but that's on the level of bulk capacitors,
               | not batteries.
        
             | usrbinbash wrote:
             | > It'd be awesome to save that, but it's not game changing
             | 
             | An 8-15% increase in available electricity without any new
             | power plants built isn't game changing?
             | 
             | The ability to transport power over longer distances,
             | making eg. solar farms in remote locations suddenly
             | feasible projects isn't game changing?
             | 
             | > and you have to take into account the cost of replacing
             | the wires
             | 
             | No I really don't have to, as we, as a species, seem to
             | have money in abundance. What we do not have in abundance,
             | is biospheres. We have exactly one of those, and if it's
             | ruined, all the money won't help.
             | 
             | The ability to suddenly boost the efficiency of our
             | electrical grids by 8-15% would not solely solve the
             | problems our species currently causes for itself, but it
             | would help a ton.
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | It was the techbros hyping it on twitter.
        
         | morelisp wrote:
         | People are desperate to turn everything into content-identity
         | fodder. Hundreds of IFLS channels making "fans of science."
         | Piles of WSB bros wanting to play some markets like they have a
         | fucking clue what's going on. Crypto-AI idiots hoping to jump
         | and pump the next thing. Men on the street with little context
         | hearing "cheaper phones." Culture warriors saying it means we
         | don't have to worry about global warming anymore.
         | 
         | Nothing can just be itself anymore, it's all gotta be grist.
        
       | optimalsolver wrote:
       | Hype boys once again btfo by establishment science.
        
         | tamimio wrote:
         | Thing is, hype boys are only looking for hypes, more clicks,
         | more money, I remember seeing a barista suddenly became a
         | scientist.
        
           | pasc1878 wrote:
           | And a chef become a military leader.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | jauco wrote:
       | (I am very much a layperson)
       | 
       | So does this mean that the videos that showed LK-99 hovering but
       | not rotating are fake? Or can you have that static hover effect
       | without being a superconductor?
        
         | stetrain wrote:
         | > In the video, the same edge of the sample seemed to stick to
         | the magnet, and it seemed delicately balanced. By contrast,
         | superconductors that levitate over magnets can be spun and even
         | held upside-down. "None of those behaviors look like what we
         | see in the LK-99 videos," van Gennep says.
         | 
         | > He thought LK-99's properties were more likely the result of
         | ferromagnetism. So he constructed a pellet of compressed
         | graphite shavings with iron filings glued to it. A video made
         | by Van Gennep shows that his disc -- made of non-
         | superconducting, ferromagnetic materials -- mimicked LK-99's
         | behaviour.
        
           | shawabawa3 wrote:
           | That explains the half levitation
           | 
           | A few videos came out of full levitation, but it's pretty
           | certain they are fake
        
       | TwoFactor wrote:
       | While there's certainly a lot of evidence that its not a
       | superconductor, no one can make the definitive statement that
       | this article does without testing the original sample.
        
       | terrib1e wrote:
       | I was waiting for the first line of the article to be 'LK-99 is
       | not a superconductor... It's an ultraconductor!'
       | 
       | Alas, today is just not my day.
        
       | DarkmSparks wrote:
       | "The science is settled."
       | 
       | Proceeds to quote a guy who studied chemistry at university and
       | now works in finance.
       | 
       | Now, Im not saying it is a superconductor. But please, don't
       | insult my intelligence with garbage like that, I'm more inclined
       | to believe that kind of reporting is evidence that serious
       | scientists are not willing to go on record as saying it isn't.
        
         | threeseed wrote:
         | "The science is settled."
         | 
         | - No idea what exactly the original replication process was.
         | 
         | - Limited number of replication attempts globally.
         | 
         | - No comments or samples analysed from the original authors.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | sorenjan wrote:
       | Sixty Symbols released a video about this yesterday, and in it
       | professor Philip Moriarty is less than impressed with the whole
       | ordeal. I haven't been paying attention, I'm too jaded and
       | skeptical and assumed from the start that there was something
       | wrong and much hype about nothing.
       | 
       | Bad Science and Room Temperature Superconductors - Sixty Symbols:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl-AgmoZ5mo
        
         | ecf wrote:
         | Loved the video. Also very annoyed with the general reception
         | seen on HN like "well it was fun". Unreal the authors had the
         | audacity to add that last line proclaiming a new age for
         | humankind. Even more unreal that news everywhere fell for it.
        
         | penjelly wrote:
         | everyone in this thread should watch this, instead of "the
         | excitement was good for everyone" they might realize these
         | hoaxes harm scientific integrity. The audacity of HN to state
         | something is good, without listening to scientists give their
         | take on it.
        
           | aaron695 wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | porcoda wrote:
           | I wouldn't call it a hoax - it was largely a very overstated
           | result that didn't stand up to deeper scrutiny. That isn't
           | really harmful. The primary issue I have with this, and many
           | related things in recent years, is people outside the
           | community of working scientists treating "X was posted on the
           | arXiv" as "X was published". This tends to lead to people
           | assuming that since it appears on that site and has the
           | layout of a regular paper that it somehow has legitimacy. We
           | saw this over and over and over during the peak of the
           | pandemic, even seeing regular news sources writing articles
           | where the only source material was some random recently
           | posted arXiv paper. I don't think I ever saw corrections
           | published in the cases when those preprints proved to be
           | bogus. The arXiv is extremely useful, but lots of people
           | outside the community of working scientists don't seem to
           | understand how to weight what people post there.
           | 
           | As for the "audacity of HN" - this site is a very bizarre
           | mixture of a relatively small number of working scientists, a
           | lot of people without much scientific background who are very
           | interested in science, and get-rich-quick startup types who
           | are sniffing around for the next breakthrough they can turn
           | into money. That mix leads to weird dynamics when it comes to
           | how scientific activities get discussed.
        
           | rubidium wrote:
           | Best as we can tell, it wasn't a hoax. It was a poorly
           | understood experiment (and perhaps premature arxiv preprint).
           | It's very similar to the "faster than speed of light" puzzle
           | from a few years back. It doesn't harm scientific integrity.
           | It reveals that science is by nature an exploratory process
           | where what we know today is subject to change in light of new
           | data and theory.
           | 
           | As a PhD physics scientist with a familiarity with this area,
           | I'm glad this got the attention it did and showed science
           | working "as it should".
        
           | Affric wrote:
           | I like Phil but around the table this morning with a few
           | working/publishing scientists they all disagreed with his
           | assertion that this paper has done more harm than good.
           | 
           | Consensus was that this would lead to more people interested
           | in the field and what actually does work.
           | 
           | There's heaps of sloppy science out there. There are massive
           | structural issues in how science is done.
           | 
           | There's obviously not enough money or prestige in condensed
           | matter physics if Phil thinks this is a bad hoax and it's bad
           | for Science.
           | 
           | Within the space of a month this was resolved. It wasn't even
           | published. Go to pharma, medicine, vet, ag and you will see
           | hoaxes that last years. Reviewers who don't have any relevant
           | knowledge. Journals which won't retract until you threaten to
           | sue them. Universities that will take no disciplinary action
           | against hoaxers at all. LK-99 was almost debunked in a single
           | media cycle.
           | 
           | The people who have taken this to reduce the credibility of
           | science rather than these fallible humans who succumbed to
           | their impulse for fame didn't give science any credibility in
           | the first place.
           | 
           | EDIT: shout out to our favourite website retraction watch.
           | Anything you read there remember, that's science working and
           | some Scientist somewhere who likes being right has vanquished
           | their enemy in the academy. https://retractionwatch.com/
        
           | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
           | > instead of "the excitement was good for everyone" they
           | might realize these hoaxes harm scientific integrity.
           | 
           | Totally disagree. If anything, this whole episode (debacle?)
           | reinforced the fact that _science works_ and the process
           | played out exactly how the scientific process _should_ work:
           | 
           | 1. First, the paper was originally posted on arxiv, meaning
           | it was a pre-print and didn't go through any peer review. So
           | the vast majority of comments I saw on it was "Wow, this
           | would be really cool, _if it turns out to be true_. "
           | 
           | 2. Immediately many labs around the world started trying to
           | replicate the results. And very quickly there were some
           | negative results that came back.
           | 
           | 3. The thing that I think is so cool is not only did negative
           | results come back, but from TFA people now have a very good
           | understanding of _why_ the initial analysis was incorrect.
           | That 's great science.
           | 
           | One may argue that this was really a failure in media
           | communication vs. the actual underlying science, but if
           | anything it teaches appropriate skepticism, _especially_ when
           | a report is initially published, without peer review, without
           | yet being replicated, that ends with the sentence  "We
           | believe that our new development will be a brand-new
           | historical event that opens a new era for humankind."
        
             | penjelly wrote:
             | good points. I can agree to that. However, I do think
             | something did break down and I think your assessment below
             | is more accurate than my initial take.
             | 
             | > One may argue that this was really a failure in media
             | communication vs. the actual underlying science
             | 
             | the scientific process and scientists here are innocent,
             | media not so much in my eyes.
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | Yeah, I think Professor Moriarty in the video comes to a
               | similar conclusion - he does say "in that sense is
               | science working", and goes on to lament the problems with
               | misinformation in the social media age. I can definitely
               | sympathize with the frustration of scientists having to
               | deal with so much social media bullshit, and people who
               | so confidently believe "My ignorance is as equal as your
               | hard work and experience."
               | 
               | That said, I really loved that Sixty Symbols video for a
               | couple reasons:
               | 
               | 1. First, Moriarty was pretty much exactly spot on in his
               | skepticism: the reduction in resistivity is _not_ the
               | behavior you 'd expect to see in a superconductor (turned
               | out to be due to copper sulfide impurities), and that the
               | floating in a magnet behavior is not that surprising and
               | could be due to diamagnetism.
               | 
               | 2. I wasn't previously that familiar with diamagnetism
               | beyond a vague "I remember hearing about that", so this
               | whole thing led me known the wikipedia rabbit hole to
               | find out about diamagnetism which was really interesting
               | to me.
               | 
               | 3. Professor Moriarty explains "this is not how you do
               | science" (bad science by over-hyped press release is at
               | least as old as cold fusion) and gives very good advice
               | on how you _should_ do good science in an age of Arxiv.
        
       | 1970-01-01 wrote:
       | What about L and K, the original scientists? Lots of speculation
       | that LK-99 would be a career ending paper if it turned out that
       | it wasn't a room temperature superconductor.
        
         | jcarrano wrote:
         | If 20 years of horsing around with a material that does not
         | work did not end their careers, neither will this.
        
           | throw-ru-938 wrote:
           | Didn't they only get funding to horse around with that
           | material several years ago?
        
             | hedora wrote:
             | Well, yes, but their prototype time machine let them put in
             | more years per year than you'd expect.
             | 
             | (Someone anonymously claimed they have a time machine on
             | social media, so it must be true!)
             | 
             | Seriously though, it sounds like the research group is
             | doing interesting work, and also being careful about the
             | claims they make (even if the internet hype cycle is not),
             | so kudos to them.
        
       | gfodor wrote:
       | The substance produced from the paper isn't a superconductor.
       | While extremely unlikely, there is still a chance that LK-99 is a
       | superconductor, but the paper itself did not sufficiently
       | describe the method needed to make it so as to replicate it
       | properly. We will know the resolution to this once the sample
       | from the original researchers is assessed by a third party, of
       | which there are presently at least two to my understanding doing
       | this right now.
        
       | Moomoomoo309 wrote:
       | I found Thunderf00t's video on LK-99 to be funny because he
       | pointed out something no one else did: In almost all applications
       | of superconductors, they don't use high-temperature ones for one
       | simple reason: Material properties. Most high-temp
       | superconductors (including LK-99, he was assuming it was one,
       | since he's not qualified to say one way or the other) are a
       | ceramic. The ones that see use in the LHC, for instance, aren't.
       | They're metallic, so you can form them into the shape you need
       | without having to manufacture it in that shape to begin with,
       | since you'd need another superconductor to join pieces like glue,
       | which we don't have. That alone doomed LK-99 to the department of
       | "cool, but not super useful", since most of the really
       | interesting uses were for large things, not small ones.
        
         | reportingsjr wrote:
         | The current generation of mass manufactured high temperature
         | superconducting tape is based on YBCO, which is a crystalline
         | material (presumably what is meant here when saying ceramic).
         | So the argument that superconductors need to be
         | metallic/malleable to be useful doesn't really make a lot of
         | sense.
        
           | downWidOutaFite wrote:
           | YBCO isn't really used for anything. MRI machines use
           | metallic NbTi even though it requires liquid helium because
           | YBCO is too brittle and can't handle large currents.
        
           | kergonath wrote:
           | > presumably what is meant here when saying ceramic
           | 
           | Probably not. Being crystalline and being a ceramic are
           | completely unrelated. Standard superconductors like niobium-
           | tin and niobium-titanium are crystalline metals
           | (intermetallic alloys). The vast majority of metals are
           | crystalline, to the point that when a company tried to make a
           | metallic glass a couple of years ago (under the name Liquid
           | Metal), it made quite a bit of noise.
        
             | willis936 wrote:
             | That's fine but YBCO is a crystalline ceramic.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | Indeed. With a perovskite-related structure.
        
         | seiferteric wrote:
         | I thought it was a poor point. The paper proposed a new
         | mechanism for the superconductivity, which would have been a
         | bigger deal than this specific formulation (lk-99). If it were
         | true, it would be a new class of superconductors which I would
         | think this would lead to development of new formulations that
         | perhaps had better properties. Plus as others have said,
         | superconductor material can and is deposited on tapes (see
         | ReBCO) to make it usable.
        
           | EvgeniyZh wrote:
           | They didn't propose new class of superconductors. They
           | conjectured that LK99 follows some 25-year-old theory from a
           | paper written in Korean. Leaving alone the fact that the
           | theory doesn't make much sense to me (at least the parts I
           | managed to understand), there was no evidence in the LK-99
           | paper that this mechanism is indeed what makes LK99
           | superconductive (or more precisely that it is present in
           | LK99).
        
         | floxy wrote:
         | The existing high temperature superconductors in production are
         | also ceramics. They just deposit thin layers on another
         | substrate and then you get flexible tapes. When you hear
         | "second generation" HTS tapes, that is what people are
         | referring to. AMSC and SuperPower crank it out by the mile.
         | 
         | https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=superconducting+tape&iax=im...
        
         | anabab wrote:
         | Why can't regular conductors be used as such glue? i.e. you mix
         | the ceramic superconductor powder into, say, molten copper, and
         | make the wires out of the mix. The result would be copper wires
         | with bits of superconductor in it. The result won't be
         | superconducting per se, but should have less resistance than
         | pure non-superconducting material which might be useful for
         | certain applications.
        
         | redox99 wrote:
         | Thunderfoot is more focused on being a contrarian than being
         | accurate and unbiased. See sibling comments that explain why it
         | being a ceramic isn't that relevant.
        
         | penjelly wrote:
         | yeah thunderfoots video really dismissed a lot of the hopes i
         | had, and im glad for it.
        
         | rowanG077 wrote:
         | The problem, which is often the case with Thunderf00t, is that
         | he is missing the forest for the trees. No one who knows
         | anything was thinking of using LK-99 for serious applications.
         | The specs of LK-99 where just too shit. What it would have been
         | is a start shot for understanding the effect and creating more
         | useful materials based on the same underlying physical process.
        
           | fluoridation wrote:
           | Thunderf00t's point, though, is that LK-99 is not novel in
           | its material category. High temperature superconductors that
           | are hard and brittle already existed. What would be
           | interesting would be a malleable high temperature
           | semiconductor, because then you can make it into cables.
        
             | postalrat wrote:
             | Sounds like Thunderf00t doomed himself to be wrong no
             | matter what happens to lk-99.
        
             | rowanG077 wrote:
             | a superconductor at 100+ degrees celsius and ambient
             | pressures doesn't exist as of now. anything even
             | approaching that would be earth shattering. Even if they
             | are ceramic.
        
             | willis936 wrote:
             | There is nothing remotely close to the category of "stp
             | superconductor". This is quite obvious when looking at a
             | plot of critical limits of known superconductors.
        
         | kergonath wrote:
         | > Most high-temp superconductors (including LK-99, he was
         | assuming it was one, since he's not qualified to say one way or
         | the other) are a ceramic. The ones that see use in the LHC, for
         | instance, aren't.
         | 
         | Aren't the LHC magnets niobium-titanium? Those aren't high
         | temperature superconductors. Though it is indeed a metal under
         | any definition. The rule of thumb is that high-temperature
         | superconductors can be cooled by liquid nitrogen alone. This is
         | not the case of the LHC magnets, which also have a liquid
         | helium cooling loop.
         | 
         | > They're metallic, so you can form them into the shape you
         | need without having to manufacture it in that shape to begin
         | with, since you'd need another superconductor to join pieces
         | like glue, which we don't have.
         | 
         | The term "metallic" is unhelpful because often in material
         | science it just means an electronic conductor (a material with
         | a non-zero density of states at the Fermi level). Under that
         | definition, some ceramics are metallic, and the opposite of
         | "metallic" is "insulator", or sometimes "semi-conductor".
         | 
         | YBCO, which is probably the most used high-temperature
         | superconductor, is an oxyde, so a ceramic, but still an
         | electronic (super)conductor, so metallic. The fact that it's an
         | oxyde does not prevent its use, notably in spherical tokamaks.
         | 
         | So I don't know the person you're referencing but their
         | background work on the subject seems less than adequate, from
         | what you say.
        
           | putnambr wrote:
           | Did you skip over "In almost all applications of
           | superconductors, they don't use high-temperature ones for one
           | simple reason: Material properties."
           | 
           | They're saying that LHC does not use a ceramic, and therefore
           | high-temperature, superconductor; instead they use metallic
           | (cooled) superconductors because they can be molded.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | The sentence still does not make sense because the
             | superconductors in the LHC (though, rereading it a couple
             | of times it is somewhat ambiguous) are not high temperature
             | by any definition. Also, again, ceramic high-temperature
             | superconductors are metallic, or they would not be
             | conductors. "Ceramic" and "metallic" are not mutually
             | exclusive in material sciences.
             | 
             | There are lots of reasons to use more classical
             | superconductors in the LHC, just as in ITER. Some are
             | design and engineering issues, as you mention. Another one
             | is that the tapes we use for YBCO were not a practical
             | thing when the LHC was designed. But now they are (though
             | they haven't been used in such a large scale) and you can
             | bet that they'll jump at any opportunity to get rid of the
             | helium loop and take advantage of the stronger magnetic
             | fields you can get with YBCO.
        
               | penjelly wrote:
               | can you make wires from cermets? Thats the point. we need
               | a substance that is malleable(?) enough like copper wire
               | that electrons can pass through. Pottery ceramic wont
               | work like that.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > can you make wires from cermets?
               | 
               | Well, nobody mentioned cermets, or wires, and there are
               | plenty of applications for superconductors beyond wires.
               | Even so, we are perfectly able to make fibre optics
               | cables with silica, which is a ceramic.
               | 
               | > we need a substance that is malleable(?) enough like
               | copper wire that electrons can pass through.
               | 
               | Malleability (actually, ductility) has nothing to do with
               | electric conductivity. It can be useful depending on the
               | use case, but for example on a printed circuit you don't
               | care about that. Not everything is a dangling wire.
               | 
               | YBCO a ceramic superconductor, it is used in thin films
               | that are deposited on metallic substrates in tapes and it
               | works well. See figure 2 of the paper here: https://www.r
               | esearchgate.net/publication/271637455_Dipole_Ma... .
               | 
               | Also, you might not realise this but pretty much nothing
               | is malleable at liquid helium temperature.
               | 
               | > Pottery ceramic wont work like that.
               | 
               | Sigh. Ceramics are not pottery, and more than 99% of the
               | time do not have anything to do with pottery. Ceramics
               | are compounds that are not intermetallic, typically
               | oxides, sulphides, nitrides, etc. Some are bendy (though
               | generally less than metallic alloys), some are hard, some
               | are electric conductors, some are not. They have very
               | diverse sets of properties.
               | 
               | They are everywhere in the chips on the device you use,
               | in its display, in the power plants that make electrons
               | move so you can use it, in any lithium-ion battery, etc.
               | I don't think I can name one device that does not involve
               | ceramics. Even a shovel, either in the form of a passive
               | layer that makes it stainless, or in the form of rust on
               | it. None of that has anything to do with pottery.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | This should not be downvoted.
        
         | scythe wrote:
         | >In almost all applications of superconductors, they don't use
         | high-temperature ones for one simple reason: Material
         | properties.
         | 
         | The problem is that this is not true anymore. It was true when
         | I was in high school. Modern methods of manufacturing cuprate
         | superconductors have been applied to the largest-scale
         | projects:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holbrook_Superconductor_Projec...
         | 
         | https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000075557/4402937
         | 
         | https://indico.cern.ch/event/775529/contributions/3309887/at...
        
           | qayxc wrote:
           | All these use metallic (or ceramic-like with metallic
           | properties) super conductors, though. That was the point: the
           | material properties. If it's not metallic or exhibiting
           | metallic-like properties (e.g. BSCCO), the practical
           | usefulness is limited.
        
         | ianburrell wrote:
         | Lots of superconductors aren't very good superconductors. They
         | have a low critical magnetic field which limits the current
         | they can carry and the magnetic field they can produce.
         | 
         | The liquid helium cooled niobium-titanium can make strong field
         | and is easy to produce. The RBCOs superconductors, YBCO is the
         | main one, are liquid nitrogen cooled and make even higher
         | magnetic fields. It sounds like it took a while to figure out
         | how make them in bulk.
         | 
         | YBCO superconductors are going to be revolution but will take
         | time for the older systems to disappear. Good example is ITER,
         | which was designed for liquid helium magnets cause nothing else
         | was practical at the time. The SPARC tokamak from MIT uses YBCO
         | magnets which means it can be smaller, higher field, and
         | cheaper cooling.
        
       | samstave wrote:
       | Can one make a micro-fluidic-slurry that is pumped through a tube
       | surrounded by a C style cup of magnets.
       | 
       | The slurry is passed through super cooling nodes to keep it at
       | sub temp.
       | 
       | and an a reverse C shape coupler is the drive - so you draw the
       | lead/push the lead but you can maintain the coolant in a much
       | more pulsed way?
       | 
       | Middle out.
       | 
       | C meets C in the CC (but with mirrors)((and magnets)) [Assume you
       | have never evaluated how a roller-coaster works]
        
       | chmod600 wrote:
       | If the video showed ferromagnetism, which parts of the material
       | and/or impurities are ferromagnetic enough for that to happen?
       | 
       | If none, does that mean scientific fraud (e.g. adding an impurity
       | intentionally), or is there another credible explanation?
        
       | choeger wrote:
       | What an amazing time we live in. It took weeks for the world to
       | investigate this "discovery". Weeks. Not months, years, or
       | decades.
       | 
       | We will see spectacular results from this kind of global
       | scientific collaboration. I am confident that there will be an
       | actual scientific breakthrough confirmed like this report got
       | debunked.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | hinkley wrote:
       | Was anything novel discovered in this material? Is there some
       | more boring application waiting in the wings?
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | This only proves that you shouldn't believe such random
       | 'breakthroughs' on the internet, these days.
       | 
       | What a shame, but the attention seeking and hype clearly worked
       | and duped many here. Even though they won't admit that they fell
       | for the hype.
       | 
       | Be a bit skeptical next time.
        
         | philomath_mn wrote:
         | > hype clearly worked and duped many here
         | 
         | What was the benefit to those doing the hype? What was the harm
         | to those being "duped"?
         | 
         | I certainly went through periods of waxing and waning belief,
         | but now that the dust is settled I don't think I am any worse
         | for the wear.
         | 
         | It's not like this was a garden variety pump-and-dump or
         | anything like that.
        
       | MBCook wrote:
       | So is LK-99 still something that may be useful in some other way
       | due to some confirmed property?
       | 
       | Or was all this just a mistake, from a usefulness perspective.
       | 
       | It was fun to watch, nice to get hope of something so cool, and
       | good to see the scientific process in action.
       | 
       | But is there any reason to keep researching LK-99 over some other
       | random compound?
        
         | scythe wrote:
         | One of the papers that argued that LK-99's levitation was due
         | to mixed diamagnetism and weak ferromagnetism also assigned it
         | a very strong diamagnetism: -2*10^-4, which would make it the
         | second-strongest such material known, beating out bismuth.
         | Probably not that useful, but interesting if confirmed.
         | 
         | I read some of the papers linked in this article, but they use
         | different units and don't identify a diamagnetic susceptibility
         | in the way that I'm used to, so I'm not sure if that was
         | confirmed (and I have stuff to do).
        
           | platz wrote:
           | But, a lot of those studies weren't using pure LK-99 but
           | samples with lots of copper sulfide mixed in.
        
             | scythe wrote:
             | Copper sulfide's diamagnetism is not that high. It would be
             | notable if it were. So that isn't a possible explanation.
             | Cu2S was suggested as a culprit for the observed
             | conductivity changes.
             | 
             | The preprint reporting the high value of diamagnetism is
             | here:
             | 
             | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.03110.pdf
             | 
             | >The subtracted diamagnetic susceptibility is larger than
             | that of Bismuth and water but smaller than that of
             | Pyrolytic carbon (page 3, bottom left)
        
       | bandyaboot wrote:
       | > in particular, copper sulfide -- were responsible for the sharp
       | drops in electrical resistivity and partial levitation over a
       | magnet, which looked similar to properties exhibited by
       | superconductors.
       | 
       | Is this effect novel and/or potentially useful as a material?
        
       | calibas wrote:
       | > By contrast, superconductors that levitate over magnets can be
       | spun and even held upside-down. "None of those behaviors look
       | like what we see in the LK-99 videos," van Gennep says.
       | 
       | Aren't they confusing Type-I and Type-II superconductors?
        
         | nullc wrote:
         | hm? "superconductors that levitate over magnets" == type-II,
         | type-II can be spun and held upside-down.
        
       | vondur wrote:
       | Gotta love that one of the scientists quoted in the article now
       | works in the finance field. Probably pays a bit more than a
       | research scientist.
        
       | UniverseHacker wrote:
       | I would like to remind/point out how many people on here were
       | bashing on American scientists for failing to replicate this in
       | the first few days when labs around the world were confirming
       | replication- saying they had lost their touch, and are no longer
       | relevant.
        
         | lamontcg wrote:
         | Yeah that was one of the worst hottakes.
         | 
         | Then getting called racist over having the opinion that the
         | original authors sounded like amateurs.
         | 
         | Then seeing that briefly turn on a dime and the Beijing
         | University preprint being instantly discredited in favor of
         | "wait for western institutions to weigh in".
        
           | LanceH wrote:
           | I assume the apologies for calling skeptics racists will be
           | going out shortly.
        
       | devilsAdv0cate wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | zuminator wrote:
       | A good time to remind everyone that for almost 2 decades now it's
       | been determined that the majority of published scientific
       | findings are wrong. [0][1] Including possibly even the very
       | determination that the majority of published scientific findings
       | are wrong.[2] ([3])
       | 
       | So, if that's the case, when a new result comes out, the
       | appropriate reaction is to assume there's a better than average
       | likelihood it will be refuted. And honestly that's what makes
       | science great. Unlike with some other fields of human endeavor,
       | it is possible to firmly refute bad science. And often learn
       | something new in the process.
       | 
       | [0]
       | https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/jo...
       | [1] https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-
       | statistics... [2]
       | https://replicationindex.com/2019/01/15/ioannidis-2005-was-w...
       | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epimenides_paradox
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | psychphysic wrote:
       | I've quite enjoyed this story and it's resolution.
       | 
       | It does seem that the doomsayers who predicted the Earth would
       | stop spinning because of lay public speculating about LK-99 were
       | wrong. The system works. Yay!
        
         | cwillu wrote:
         | It's mildly amusing to see the commentary elsewhere that this
         | whole event proves they were _right_ that the lay public
         | speculating is somehow harmful.
        
       | gumby wrote:
       | I worried less as to whether LK-99 was a superconductor or not
       | when I thought that the 'flat band' theory might hold water. That
       | could have led to all sorts of interesting results, but alas it
       | appears not to work after all.
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | This type of story is fueled by techno-optimists who want to
       | believe that humans can always "figure out" the universe and take
       | advantage of the laws of physics to master their environment.
       | 
       | I don't understand where this belief comes from, but to think
       | that research + time = innovation is really ignorant of how
       | technology works. It seems it's really rooted in prophetic or
       | religious way to look at technology.
       | 
       | Cornucopianism is a really better word for it.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornucopianism
        
         | RhodesianHunter wrote:
         | >I don't understand where this belief comes from
         | 
         | Probably the last 100 or so years where we have largely done
         | exactly that.
        
         | jabedude wrote:
         | > I don't understand where this belief comes from
         | 
         | For me it comes from a survey of the previous 2 millennia of
         | human history and witnessing constant technological
         | advancements that produce higher and higher standards of living
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | Larrikin wrote:
         | Do you really think we have figured it all out and all the
         | current research is pointless? Or did you just want to post
         | that Wikipedia article?
        
         | KyleBerezin wrote:
         | History has had many groundbreaking discoveries. It seems
         | foolish to assume that is over. There will be more ground
         | breaking discoveries, and there will be more iterative
         | discoveries. People are so interested in room temp
         | superconductors and stable fusion, because they CAN exist, and
         | likely will exist.
         | 
         | 'High' temperature super conductors were only recently
         | discovered, and only a couple of years ago lanthanum
         | decahydride was shown to transition at -10F. It seems odd to me
         | to assume that this hurdle isn't going to be overcome, and even
         | stranger to disparage others for thinking so.
        
         | poopbutt7 wrote:
         | Agreed. They're such sheep, it's embarrassing. One day they'll
         | acknowledge our obvious superiority.
        
       | eutropia wrote:
       | > Separated from impurities, LK-99 is not a superconductor, but
       | an insulator with a resistance in the millions of ohms -- too
       | high to run a standard conductivity test.
       | 
       | Not quite a superinsulator, but ironic.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | thinkingkong wrote:
       | It's disappointing news but the excitement and amount of
       | replication on this paper was pretty fun to witness and
       | experience.
       | 
       | To me the most interesting part was everyone talking about
       | potential consequences, uses, the order of magnitude improvements
       | we'd see in certain costs or areas. Pumps, MRIs, power grids,
       | chips, etc. Great reminder what materials science can do to some
       | underlying economics.
        
         | Waterluvian wrote:
         | Agreed!
         | 
         | There's this bizarre reaction I see from many where they see
         | the excitement and curiosity and hopefulness as a form of error
         | and source of embarrassment. When mixed with an open mind and
         | reasonable skepticism, it's a powerful opportunity to get
         | people engaged in imagining a different world.
         | 
         | I had all kinds of exciting conversations about what a
         | validated, commercially viable LK-99 could produce. Why would I
         | ever be inclined to feel that there's pie on my face now that
         | we've got fairly strong evidence refuting the claims?
        
           | lolinder wrote:
           | In this case, I think the excitement and hopefulness was not
           | dangerous or wrong, but I do see a risk to this kind of
           | preprint hype in other contexts.
           | 
           | During COVID there were multiple cases like this where a
           | study got a lot of hype and discussion from non-experts and
           | turned into "the science says X", when in fact the science
           | was as of yet extremely unsettled. Sure enough, as the
           | experts came to a consensus it rarely matched the public's
           | initial perception, which led to a lot of confusion,
           | conspiracy theories, and fingerpointing.
           | 
           | Science-as-spectator-sport is fun, but I worry about the
           | impact it will have on society as a whole and on the
           | execution of science in particular. How many research
           | decisions will be influenced by the possibility of going
           | viral? How many bad decisions will be made as a result of
           | pressure from millions of non-experts who briefly become
           | armchair X-ologists?
        
             | okamiueru wrote:
             | I think this kind of excitement followed up with "wasn't
             | anything after all" is both dangerous and wrong.
             | 
             | When science is done badly (which arguably shouldn't be
             | considered science), which then leads the public to have
             | elevated expectations, only then for science to be done
             | right and disprove and reject the original "findings",
             | public trust in science is ever so slightly damaged.
        
               | tysam_and wrote:
               | I think you're conflating PR with the science underneath.
               | 
               | PR is something we cannot control -- and avoiding
               | releasing results in a (semi-vain?) attempt to control PR
               | arguably does more harm than releasing them does.
               | 
               | The sea makes waves as it will. We can moderate as much
               | as we are able. I think the rest is simply a matter of
               | accepting that things happen as they do out of our
               | control. We can only truly impact ---- and even then, not
               | necessarily guaranteed! D: ---- -- in some potentially
               | very small part -- whatever sphere is around us, and I
               | feel that that's a collective individual responsibility.
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | PR stands for public relations. Like, it _literally_ is
               | about controlling what the public does with releases. It
               | 's not total absolute control, but PR firms can work
               | wonders. The university press office can take a paper and
               | exaggerate the claims to try to make the university look
               | better, or at least, not highlight that testing was done
               | in mice, for example.
        
               | tysam_and wrote:
               | That is technically true, though in practice the
               | definition I believe has expanded to include "general
               | news and press coverage of XYZ", which is how I'm
               | phrasing it here.
               | 
               | Having had some work get incredible attention, and other
               | work not at all, I've experienced a small slice of the
               | volatility of the web. My most popular, for example,
               | tweet chain was a semi-technical vent I wrote over the
               | course of 30 minutes after stewing about some semi-
               | useless technical hype that no one seemed to be
               | addressing the flaws in. I wrote it in a way that was
               | more attention-grabbing somewhat than my more technical
               | posts, put it out there, and shared it in a few places.
               | It was pretty shallow, technically, I think, but I feel
               | like it really had to be stated, since it sorta
               | felt...really pretty obvious?
               | 
               | Two days later or so, my number of Twitter followers had
               | over quadrupled.
               | 
               | I think humanity can be quite finicky sometimes (a more
               | general statement, I don't think one could conclude that
               | from the previous anecdote alone).
        
               | _jal wrote:
               | Furthermore, preemptively reacting to expected third-
               | party behaviors is doomed.
               | 
               | Journalists are going to write nonsense, hype-filled
               | science articles. PR flacks are going to hype puff
               | newswire blurbs. Why? Because that's what they're paid to
               | do.
               | 
               | You can curse the existence of bad incentives, if you
               | want annoying ideologues to call you a communist.
               | 
               | Or you can hire your own PR flacks. Because worrying
               | about how people will react to what you're doing is PR,
               | and going up against professionals without your own is
               | like going to court without a lawyer.
               | 
               | Or you can just, you know, do science, accept that people
               | suck sometimes, and get on with your life.
        
               | chongli wrote:
               | _public trust in science is ever so slightly damaged_
               | 
               | This is just another example of the media's negative
               | effect on society. Similarly, the media endlessly poring
               | over every detail of the Ukraine war has likely made
               | their job much more difficult because it damages the
               | element of surprise.
               | 
               | The media originally began as something quite negative
               | with what we called "yellow journalism." Then for a
               | century or so we saw a kind of golden age of journalism
               | where newspapers had strong reputations to uphold but
               | were fairly rewarded for it through ads and classifieds.
               | 
               | Now the media is back to yellow journalism (clickbait)
               | and eroding the institutions of society.
        
               | creato wrote:
               | I don't think you can blame the media for this one. I
               | heard very little to nothing about LK-99 from the news or
               | the regular people in my life. But I heard a _ton_ about
               | it from my "tech" friends that spend a lot of time on
               | Twitter, and HN.
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | The issue mostly comes from the current yellow journalism
               | state of science news sites. It's a game of telephone
               | where the further you get from the paper, the more
               | details are missing and hyped. Often times losing the
               | very essence of what was discovered.
        
             | fragmede wrote:
             | Have we been so throughly baked into anti-intellectualism
             | that people who can read, and use that _advanced_ skill on
             | Wikipedia, along with the other skill of critical thinking,
             | are to be denigrated as  "armchair X-ologists"? I know our
             | country's rallying cry is "Math is hard, let's go
             | shopping", but not all of us have bought into that anti-
             | science, anti-knowledge, anti-being-smart-at-all attitude.
             | Thanks to a lot of hard work by a lot of very clever and
             | motivated people, we have humanity's knowledge at our
             | fingertips, and we're supposed to _not use it_? Just
             | proudly stand up and say  "I refuse to learn new things!"
             | 
             | How many worse decisions are made by people who can't read
             | and won't learn about the nuances of a topic?
        
               | lolinder wrote:
               | You're attacking a very elaborate straw man constructed
               | around a single phrase in my comment. I didn't say what
               | you think I said.
        
             | sneak wrote:
             | > _How many research decisions will be influenced by the
             | possibility of going viral? How many bad decisions will be
             | made as a result of pressure from millions of non-experts
             | who briefly become armchair X-ologists?_
             | 
             | Ask L Ron Hubbard?
             | 
             | The willingness of the crowd to believe in counterfactual
             | things is not constrained to science, and whatever
             | damage/risk is posed by that is not new - as Galileo can
             | attest.
        
             | DonHopkins wrote:
             | [flagged]
        
               | gowld wrote:
               | Mr Hopkins, you have earned tremendous respect for your
               | work over the decades, and your passion for social
               | justice is commendable, but there are better ways to
               | channel it than into off-topic incivility and joking
               | about killing people.
        
           | ryanSrich wrote:
           | My only gripe was the VCs declaring superconductivity without
           | any evidence. They're so quick to follow the heard and jump
           | on trends that they do zero diligence in just waiting to see
           | if something is legitimate or not. People being hopefully and
           | discussing possible solutions is not a problem. But VCs
           | declaring that it's the future and you're falling behind if
           | you're not working on it is the problem.
        
           | BaseballPhysics wrote:
           | > There's this bizarre reaction I see from many where they
           | see the excitement and curiosity and hopefulness as a form of
           | error and source of embarrassment. When mixed with an open
           | mind and reasonable skepticism...
           | 
           | Kinda buried the lede there. A lot of folks around here and
           | in my own orbit were practicing the former while excluding
           | the latter, or worse, were taking shots at people trying to
           | inject some level of rationality into the conversation. Heck,
           | some folks even went so far as to refer to those types of
           | counterpoints/comments as just a "bizarre reaction"...
        
           | araes wrote:
           | Another point is: It's properties might still be interesting
           | (possibly amazing, just not a superconductor).
           | 
           | A significant reduction in room temperature resistance would
           | still be incredible, even if it wasn't a "room temperature
           | superconductor." Might still enable a lot of those "exciting
           | conversations." Just not some binary yes/no computer holy
           | grail.
           | 
           | Also, big effect was scientists went "Whoa. There's a whole
           | mode/regime of resistance change we never really looked at."
           | The modeling papers that came out almost immediately were
           | really interesting. Might still have cool applications.
        
           | marginalia_nu wrote:
           | > There's this bizarre reaction I see from many where they
           | see the excitement and curiosity and hopefulness as a form of
           | error and source of embarrassment. When mixed with an open
           | mind and reasonable skepticism, it's a powerful opportunity
           | to get people engaged in imagining a different world.
           | 
           | This should be taken in the context of room temperature
           | superconductors being _notorious_ physics vaporware along
           | with practically useful advances in quantum computers and
           | useful fusion. What these have in common is a sort of holy
           | grail status, where it 's obvious they'd be a revolutionary
           | complete game changer. Not that any of these things are
           | obviously impossible, there's just been so many instances of
           | discoveries in these areas that have failed to replicate that
           | there's inevitably a lot of eye rolling in physics when these
           | types of findings are announced.
        
           | fasterik wrote:
           | Excitement and curiosity about science is a good thing, but
           | hyping up dubious claims and low quality research is not. I
           | don't know who to blame in this case; I'm not sure whether
           | it's the researchers, science journalism, social media
           | dynamics, or a combination of all those things. But it
           | doesn't seem healthy to have the general public incentivizing
           | scientists to rush out early results with sensationalist
           | claims. Real science takes years to validate results and a
           | lot of that happens behind closed doors, as it should.
           | 
           | I think the public reaction in this case is a symptom of a
           | problem with our information ecosystem that extends beyond
           | science. Just because something is fun to participate in in
           | the moment doesn't mean it's not harmful to the underlying
           | scientific/political/social process.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | archepyx wrote:
           | HN discussion did not particlarly have "reasonable
           | skepticism".
           | 
           | This is probably because people (i) were not aware that there
           | had been many other hypes about RTSC before but less publicly
           | visible all proved to be false, (ii) not being able to
           | accurately judge the technical quality of the initial
           | evidence, (iii) uncritically believing that the data in the
           | initial preprints was proof for superconductivity because
           | their authors said so.
        
             | Waterluvian wrote:
             | I find it perilous to treat an entire community as it if
             | has one voice. Ie. "the HN discussion" as a singular entity
             | with a singular binary state on its skepticism. Someone
             | else could equally claim that the HN community was super
             | pessimistic and skeptical about it, because I certainly saw
             | a lot of that too!
             | 
             | While a convenient abstraction, it plays into our biases to
             | notice and remember only some of the discourse.
             | 
             | Plus I don't think it's really relevant to what I'm saying
             | given I'm not making a claim about how any specific
             | individual or group reacted, but that it's odd when there's
             | people who treat an optimistic outlook as an error.
        
               | pvg wrote:
               | _it 's odd when there's people who treat an optimistic
               | outlook as an error._
               | 
               | It's pretty standard to be skeptical of extraordinary,
               | poorly supported scientific claims and you didn't have to
               | be an expert to find out experts were fairly skeptical of
               | this from the beginning and the reasons for their
               | skepticism. The broad HN sentiment was at odds with what
               | you could find elsewhere. This isn't a moral failing or
               | anything, just a common mode of HN-like forums but to
               | elevate it to some some sort of positive rather than a
               | thing to be cautious about seems backwards.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | This superconductor material was the literal definition
               | of something you forget about and then get pleasantly
               | surprised (not excited) about once it is replicated.
               | 
               | For the scientists getting their hands on a breakthrough,
               | the risk and reward was worth it, but for the public at
               | large? No one should care until there are definite
               | results.
        
               | worrycue wrote:
               | The excitable people are certainly "loud" though.
               | 
               | The last few weeks with the LK-99 hype combined with the
               | usual ChatGPT stories, I actually started feeling that
               | maybe the site should be renamed Hype News.
               | 
               | > but that it's odd when there's people who treat an
               | optimistic outlook as an error.
               | 
               | IMHO it's best to treat any extraordinary claim as BS
               | until proven otherwise as it's very easy to concoct BS
               | claims. If we take every one of them seriously, it will
               | consume all of our attention and destroy the signal
               | (actual facts) to noise (unproven claims) ratio on this
               | site.
        
               | kaba0 wrote:
               | I am perfectly capable of managing, simply unknowns, it
               | doesn't have to have an actual boolean value. Treating it
               | as bullshit is not the correct approach - sure, there is
               | a healthy amount of skepticism, realism to have, but
               | while RTSC is a too nice to be true goal, it is not
               | fundamentally against any known laws, I would retain my
               | bullshit behavior to faster than light travel, the daily
               | tesla-free-energy-for-the-world, etc. kind of low-effort
               | ones, and even in their case would hold a tiny 0.001%
               | chance of my skepticism being wrong.
        
               | archepyx wrote:
               | Optimistic outlook without reasonable skepticism is
               | probably at least something you should not strive to
               | achieve.
        
               | kaba0 wrote:
               | Also, if anything this black-and-white view of the world
               | is responsible for the bad outcomes associated with
               | optimism in hyped science. If we could distance ourselves
               | from the binary result/truth and simply engage with the
               | topic without that weight, we would have much more
               | productive discussions.
        
               | MichaelZuo wrote:
               | > Plus I don't think it's really relevant to what I'm
               | saying given I'm not making a claim about how any
               | specific individual or group reacted, but that it's odd
               | when there's people who treat an optimistic outlook as an
               | error.
               | 
               | An optimistic outlook without a semi-plausible basis that
               | you can convincingly elaborate on, or link a vaguely
               | credible source doing so, IS an error, at least going by
               | HN norms.
        
               | Nevermark wrote:
               | Optimism isn't gullibility!
               | 
               | It is just an attitude that values positive possibilities
               | over fretting about negative possibilities.
               | 
               | Especially in cases where there is a small chance of a
               | huge upside, relative to virtually no downside. We didn't
               | lose any superconductors. :)
               | 
               | I don't recall anyone on HN _erroneously_ declaring the
               | material was definitely a new superconductor before
               | subsequent evidence arrived at a consistent conclusion.
               | 
               | There is nothing wrong with optimism.
        
               | MichaelZuo wrote:
               | Perhaps you misunderstood?
               | 
               | To clarify, I was referring to "An optimistic outlook" in
               | terms of actual assertions/claims/etc. that are written
               | down on-the-record in public.
               | 
               | Of course HN users can have the general abstract
               | sentiment of optimism at anytime in their mind. I don't
               | think there are any norms around internal sentiments.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | > HN discussion did not particlarly have "reasonable
             | skepticism"
             | 
             | There was a dose of Dunning-Kruger, and some software
             | engineers telling us how to science, but there was also a
             | lot of engagement and interesting discussions with genuine
             | experts. Overall I found it quite interesting to follow.
             | 
             | > uncritically believing that the data in the initial
             | preprints was proof for superconductivity because their
             | authors said so.
             | 
             | It had undertones of small team (in a private institution,
             | no less) taking on the stodgy establishment, which is quite
             | popular among some people here. The concepts are also not
             | very difficult to grasp on surface, so a lot of people can
             | form an opinion, however well founded.
             | 
             | People complain about peer review and scientific publisher
             | as well. It is not difficult to see how this could push
             | them to champion something that comes from arxiv.
        
             | addisonl wrote:
             | > HN discussion did not particlarly have "reasonable
             | skepticism".
             | 
             | That's definitely not true despite your attempts to
             | gaslight us.
        
             | csours wrote:
             | And the people most likely to join the discussion were the
             | most enthusiastic. It's hard to talk sense when people are
             | excited. See also crypto.
        
             | javajosh wrote:
             | I feel that I had reasonable skepticism based on the
             | consequences to the scientists if they turned out to be
             | wrong. Korea is not known to be a particularly forgiving or
             | understanding culture, and I suspect that all of these men
             | will be working at a fast food restaurant soon.
        
             | chefandy wrote:
             | Jeez-- it's almost like few people around here are
             | physicists, consider physicists credible on their
             | specialty, saw physicists excited by the potential, and get
             | excited by exciting things.
             | 
             | What a _shamefully foolish_ intellectual failure!
        
               | lamontcg wrote:
               | > saw physicists excited by the potential,
               | 
               | Mostly I saw actual physicists who had experience in the
               | field being very skeptical, throwing a lot of cold water
               | on the fire, and pointing out that the original authors
               | looked like amateurs.
               | 
               | And then I saw a lot of people with zero experience in
               | the field running around yelling about how they were out
               | of touch, how this was a revolutionary new way that
               | science would progress on twitter, out in the open, etc.
               | People who were skeptical got called all kinds of names.
               | 
               | It didn't help that a lot of people on twitter pivoted
               | from crypto-hype to AI-hype to LK99-hype pretty much on a
               | dime.
               | 
               | There was also a lot of highly upvoted comments with the
               | usual thoughtleadering style of "let me beak it down for
               | your, here's the ELI5 of what is going on an what the
               | implications will be..." followed by whatever they
               | learned in the past 48 hours from plowing through
               | wikipedia articles.
               | 
               | There could be a lesson here about listening very
               | carefully to experts in the field when they give you
               | their opinions. They often sound very highly biased, but
               | there's usually very good reason for that. Once in a
               | lifetime there's the event where some paradigm is
               | overthrown and all the old scientists look a bit foolish
               | because their instincts were to be skeptical -- but those
               | instincts came through a lifetime of correctly being
               | skeptical 999 times out of 1000 about wild claims in
               | their field.
               | 
               | This could be a teachable moment that could inform people
               | about climate change, coronavirus and other scientific
               | claims. If you want to disagree with experts in the field
               | you really need to get off your ass, get off twitter and
               | the blogs, and go do the hard work of understanding what
               | the scientists actually know by reading the articles that
               | they publish. They're very often correct and their
               | opinions hold more weight because they've literally spent
               | their lifetime learning and thinking about this one
               | thing. They didn't start learning about superconductivity
               | / viruses / climate last week and you need to do better
               | than some showerthought or wishful thinking that you
               | think proves your viewpoint.
               | 
               | But we're not going to do that because its only been a
               | few days and we've literally forgotten about how much
               | flak scientists were getting on here over skepticism
               | towards the initial claims.
               | 
               | And I had some of the most positively stupid arguments on
               | here where people were trying to assert that scientific
               | experts needed to express exactly zero bias because they
               | were experts and held to a higher standard than the
               | average moron with no experience who could argue whatever
               | they liked. Engineering a rationale to be able to reject
               | anyone with a strong opinion based on expertise in favor
               | of strong opinions from randos on twitter.
        
               | chefandy wrote:
               | So... who cares? Why should laypeople be expected to
               | engage in that much analysis solely to _avoid
               | excitement?_ These aren 't policy makers. No lives were
               | lost. Only keystrokes were wasted... and, calling them
               | _wasted_ is probably too harsh. Lots of people learned
               | what a cool thing this would be if it happened, are
               | disappointed that this isn 't it, and might even be a
               | little more interested in physics going forward. Why are
               | you so emotionally invested in saying _" told ya so"_?
        
               | lamontcg wrote:
               | > This could be a teachable moment that could inform
               | people about climate change, coronavirus and other
               | scientific claims...
               | 
               | I addressed why.
        
               | chefandy wrote:
               | Imagining that attention to this somehow displaces
               | attention those things is beyond dubious. You could pick
               | literally any popular topic and level the same exact
               | criticism.
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | As noted by the sibling comment, the physicists
               | (especially those who specialized in superconductor
               | research!) were the ones who were the most skeptical of
               | the announcement, partially because claims of room-
               | temperature superconductors are actually relatively
               | common, and partially because the evidence in the paper
               | was just atrociously bad [1].
               | 
               | One of the things I look forward to in an HN discussion
               | is the comments of people who can collate expert opinions
               | on the subject and surface these kinds of points in a
               | more ELI15 kind of way. But despite there being ~a week
               | of LK-99 stories permanently on the front page, there
               | wasn't much of that (a little on the initial thread, and
               | virtually nothing for the next several days)--and it's
               | not for lack of physicists commenting on the topic (in
               | other forums)!
               | 
               | [1] I saw someone point out that, when you translate the
               | units on the resistivity/temperature graph, it is a worse
               | conductor than copper at room temperature, below its
               | claimed critical temperature.
        
               | chefandy wrote:
               | > One of the things I look forward to in an HN discussion
               | is the comments of people who can collate expert opinions
               | on the subject and surface these kinds of points in a
               | more ELI15 kind of way.
               | 
               | HN is full of subject matter experts on computing-- that
               | is, software, and to a lesser extent, hardware-- beyond
               | that it's a mixed bag at best. Even as an _interface
               | designer_ , I see so much confidently presented and
               | totally bogus pseudo-expertise on art and design here
               | that it's actually kind of funny, and that's much more
               | closely related to software development than physics is.
               | That BS sounds credible to other developers because it's
               | in a developer's voice and trips on misconceptions common
               | among developers. I suspect that's true with the other
               | non-computing topics discussed here that I don't know
               | enough about to give an expert opinion on.
               | 
               | As a long-time developer myself, I've been on both sides
               | of assuming our _astonishing intelligence and analytical
               | capability_ can make up for lacking the requisite
               | expertise. The mistake is expecting the HN crowd 's
               | musings about things outside of it's expertise to be more
               | trustworthy than any other internet forum. If this were
               | some physics subreddit or something like that, the
               | criticism would make more sense. This is just people
               | being excited by something a lot of other people were
               | excited by.
        
               | kaba0 wrote:
               | I have no qualms one way or another, but afaik
               | conductivity in small samples is insanely hard to
               | properly measure even when the synthesis process is more
               | deterministic/efficient.
               | 
               | That's why many started with dimagnetism indeed.
        
               | light_hue_1 wrote:
               | > One of the things I look forward to in an HN discussion
               | is the comments of people who can collate expert opinions
               | on the subject and surface these kinds of points in a
               | more ELI15 kind of way.
               | 
               | I can tell you from first hand experience, much of the
               | time subject matter experts are often downvoted into
               | oblivion by the HN hive mind. To the point where you only
               | see clueless people at the top.
               | 
               | Happens to me regularly when it comes to machine
               | learning, neuroscience, education/university threads.
               | 
               | For example, people say crazy things about things like
               | university admissions or grad student salaries. Never
               | mind about ML where most of the information here is just
               | wrong.
        
             | yongjik wrote:
             | On the flip side, there was a lot of what I'd call, hmm,
             | "unreasonable" skepticism. If I had a dime every time
             | someone said "This is fake because Korean culture (blah
             | blah armchair sociology)" ...
        
             | plorg wrote:
             | HN demonstrated its common ability to surface prolific
             | posters who identify as autodidacts and appear to have gone
             | on a Wikipedia binge this morning, but who nonetheless
             | speak with a confidence that until now may only have been
             | demonstrated by ChatGPT.
        
               | morelisp wrote:
               | The absolute worst part is that some of these guys,
               | especially the younger (e.g. fresh grad through ~30)
               | ones, do this in person! I was out drinking with some
               | colleagues a few months ago and I said something offhand
               | in a normal human conversation about wanting to learn
               | more about X, and one guy pulls out his phone and just
               | starts reading me the Wikipedia article about X.
        
               | plorg wrote:
               | I could personally take or leave live readings of
               | Wikipedia. I wouldn't do it, but I have also gone on my
               | share of solo wiki binges. There's no problem with
               | learning about things. The thing that bothers me is a
               | room full of people with shallow knowledge of a subject
               | who talk over anybody else. I think it's fine to care
               | about things, but I need other people to be able to tune
               | their volume to their level of knowledge and
               | understanding, which you really can't do if you think you
               | know everything.
        
           | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
           | To understand the skeptic's perspective: imagine watching
           | people excitedly discussing a sighting of bigfoot.
        
           | JeremyNT wrote:
           | > _When mixed with an open mind and reasonable skepticism, it
           | 's a powerful opportunity to get people engaged in imagining
           | a different world._
           | 
           | I feel like this line is doing a lot of lifting in your
           | comment.
           | 
           | The problem is that as lay people we are completely
           | unequipped to gauge a claim like this. I followed along on HN
           | and there were plenty of posts by people who were giving
           | LK-99 crazy odds of success, fueled in no small part by viral
           | videos of outright hoaxes from pseudonymous "researchers."
           | 
           | It's fun, in a science fiction-y way, to speculate on what a
           | material with the supposed properties might have meant for
           | the world, but the degree of skepticism that _should_ have
           | been applied was lacking for many.
           | 
           | There's a tendency on HN and similar forums to devour new
           | developments - almost a fanaticism about learning the
           | newest/latest/best before the general public. But in this
           | case, a truly extraordinary claim had been proposed, and it
           | was even published without the researchers' consent. There
           | was precious little reason to give it any attention at all at
           | that phase.
           | 
           | If people had viewed LK-99's properties as "almost surely
           | science fiction" all along, I could find myself agreeing with
           | you, but that's really not how this played out. Sadly this
           | event showed there's a market for hyping up weak claims that
           | people will be poor at evaluating, and I guess we can
           | probably expect more of them.
        
             | acqq wrote:
             | > Sadly this event showed there's a market for hyping up
             | weak claims that people will be poor at evaluating
             | 
             | I don't see it as in any way an unique event, and also not
             | unique for the enthusiasm seen on this site. The
             | "believers" in most of the hypes typically aren't cured
             | fast, as the article notes:
             | 
             | "While some commentators have pointed to the LK-99 saga as
             | a model for reproducibility in science, others say that
             | it's an unusually swift resolution of a high-profile
             | puzzle. "Often these things die this very slow death...""
        
             | ummonk wrote:
             | What's "crazy odds of success" to you?
        
             | hackerlight wrote:
             | The tone here on HN was very similar to the tone of a lot
             | of credible physicists. Just because it _turned out_ to be
             | not superconducting doesn 't mean that the people you are
             | criticising were wrong to think what they thought given the
             | available information at the time.
        
           | SanderNL wrote:
           | In a world where true dreamers are often sidelined, where the
           | embrace of change is met with resistance, and where society
           | prioritizes incremental economic evolution over the visions
           | of genuine pioneers, we find ourselves amidst signs and
           | patterns all too indicative of a ... culture in decline!
           | 
           |  _rock music_
        
           | kergonath wrote:
           | > There's this bizarre reaction I see from many where they
           | see the excitement and curiosity and hopefulness as a form of
           | error and source of embarrassment.
           | 
           | What the general public does not see it the regular flood of
           | papers that pretend to change the world and that turn out to
           | be bogus. So, from an insider point of view, the issue is
           | that what we are supposed to avoid (crack pot theories
           | becoming mainstream or getting too much traction) happened in
           | a spectacular fashion. So a lot of people get excited about
           | nothing and then end up distrusting the scientific process
           | itself ("they don't know what they're doing", "they make
           | everything up", "they write a lot of nonsense", etc).
           | 
           | In this case, I think it turned out to be a good thing.
           | People got excited, some of them thought about possible
           | implication, others managed to pick up some notions of
           | material science. The enthusiasm and activity from people
           | trying to replicate and investigate the material was heart-
           | warming. But yeah, it was bound to finish like that.
           | 
           | > Why would I ever be inclined to feel that there's pie on my
           | face now that we've got fairly strong evidence refuting the
           | claims?
           | 
           | You really, really don't want to be seen as a crack pot when
           | your funding and career depend on how external people
           | evaluate your work. You also really, really don't want to
           | have to retract a paper because you've missed something
           | obvious. Retraction is a traumatic process even if you are in
           | good faith. This is sidestepped by releasing preprints (so no
           | peer review and no risk of retraction). But at the same time
           | this is a reason why outlandish preprints tend not to be
           | taken too seriously. There is less incentives to get it
           | right.
        
         | dheera wrote:
         | > were responsible for the sharp drops in electrical
         | resistivity and partial levitation over a magnet
         | 
         | Are these properties still useful? If something can levitate
         | without being a superconductor it is already useful for a LOT
         | of things.
        
           | penjelly wrote:
           | diamagnetic material exist, and no theyre not nearly as
           | useful as a superconductor with 0 resistance.
        
             | dheera wrote:
             | Diamagnetic levitation is extremely weak, which makes it
             | much less practically useful, and also reduces its
             | entertainment value (if you can levitate things 2 cm above
             | the surface the 2 billion children in the world will be all
             | over the stuff; the 1-2 mm you can get with bismuth
             | diamagnetism isn't particularly impressive.
        
               | hgsgm wrote:
               | I don't know all these subtleties, but maglev trains are
               | awesome.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | Maglev trains do not use diamagnetism or this kind of
               | permanent magnets. They use electromagnets and sometimes
               | much stronger rare-earth magnets, which are much more
               | convenient and effective. Some of them do use
               | superconductors, though, AFAIK.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | Not really, what really matters is what weight it can
           | actually support. Most of these materials can barely levitate
           | a few grams - way below any kind of useful application except
           | for maybe gimmicky toys.
        
           | kergonath wrote:
           | > If something can levitate without being a superconductor it
           | is already useful for a LOT of things.
           | 
           | It is not that useful. Electromagnets are used when we need
           | something like that at scale, such as in maglev trains.
           | Permanent magnets have their uses, but we have plenty of
           | others that are as strong as this, and plenty of others that
           | are much stronger than this. I suppose we will investigate
           | it's properties and we might find something interesting, but
           | almost certainly not because of its magnetic properties.
        
         | baron816 wrote:
         | It was kind of like thinking about winning the lottery--the fun
         | is in the fantasy of it.
        
         | slashdev wrote:
         | I think it's fair to say that even as a failure, it's likely to
         | stimulate much more attention, funding, and research in the
         | area of high temperature superconductors going forward.
         | 
         | That's great.
        
         | xwdv wrote:
         | I disagree. I get pissed off when revolutionary scientific news
         | is brought to me only to turn out to be some bogus crap. I
         | don't care about the replication and peer review process, it's
         | not fun, it's banal. I would much rather have preferred to
         | learn about LK-99 once it was confirmed to be a room temp
         | superconductor, and if it wasn't then I'd rather never hear
         | about it.
         | 
         | Now I have to walk back explanations I gave to various people
         | and explain LK-99 actually isn't special at all. I will look
         | like a god damn idiot.
         | 
         | The whole time LK-99 was in the news, we were wringing our
         | hands about potential uses and the impact it would have on our
         | world. For once it seemed maybe there was hope that we'd see
         | exciting times again with exponential advances in technology.
         | That dream has now been thoroughly eradicated.
         | 
         | By the time a true room temp superconductor comes out, it
         | probably won't be in our lifetimes.
        
           | the_only_law wrote:
           | > Now I have to walk back explanations I gave to various
           | people and explain LK-99 actually isn't special at all. I
           | will look like a god damn idiot.
           | 
           | Maybe, but I have immensely more respect for someone who can
           | just admit they were wrong compared to someone who bends of
           | backwards to justify their incorrectness.
        
           | kergonath wrote:
           | > Now I have to walk back explanations I gave to various
           | people and explain LK-99 actually isn't special at all. I
           | will look like a god damn idiot.
           | 
           | There is a lesson there: do not make definitive statements
           | about something that is uncertain. There are a lot of
           | interesting things to say about this material along the lines
           | of "it would be cool if it worked, then we could do x or y"
           | while still making clear that this is tentative.
           | 
           | > The whole time LK-99 was in the news, we were wringing our
           | hands about potential uses and the impact it would have on
           | our world. For once it seemed maybe there was hope that we'd
           | see exciting times again with exponential advances in
           | technology. That dream has now been thoroughly eradicated.
           | 
           | Some people did. The materials scientists I know were mostly
           | skeptical with a hint of cynicism or optimism, depending on
           | the individual.
           | 
           | > By the time a true room temp superconductor comes out, it
           | probably won't be in our lifetimes.
           | 
           | It is difficult to say. We barely understand what makes a
           | material a superconductor. This understanding will improve,
           | and we will do some more systematic studies. Or it might show
           | up in some completely unrelated project, just by chance. It
           | is very difficult to say when this might happen. All we can
           | say is that so far we don't think that room-temperature
           | superconductors are a physical impossibility. So at least
           | there is hope.
        
           | hirsin wrote:
           | It sounds like you were explaining it to people before it was
           | confirmed - why did you do that? I don't really grok the
           | emotional connection you seem to be talking about - how does
           | someone pin their mental state so much on something like this
           | (unconfirmed research)?
           | 
           | Is it the idea that there might be something great happening,
           | and that we might get the chance to live in exciting times? I
           | could see people wanting to believe in that opportunity.
        
             | penjelly wrote:
             | we already live in exciting times. I wouldnt blame someone
             | for explaining an idea that the scientists themselves came
             | forward and claimed it as a valid result either. Blind
             | optimism is NOT good in my opinion even if intentions are
             | good
        
           | jodrellblank wrote:
           | > " _Now I have to walk back explanations I gave to various
           | people and explain LK-99 actually isn't special at all. I
           | will look like a god damn idiot._ "
           | 
           | Y'know those stories on Reddit about people's awful
           | childhoods, like "I needed the toilet in a shop and my
           | parents told me to be quiet, and then when I pissed myself,
           | my dad dragged me outside and beat me for 'embarrassing
           | him'"? Have you noticed the dad comes out of the story
           | looking bad for prioritising his image? Saying "I don't want
           | to tell this to people because then _I_ will look bad"
           | already makes you look bad.
           | 
           | I told my dad LK-99 isn't a superconductor and he said
           | "that's a shame, oh well, exciting while it lasted".
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | > Now I have to walk back explanations I gave to various
           | people and explain LK-99 actually isn't special at all. I
           | will look like a god damn idiot.
           | 
           | And that's just LK-99. You could easily be _just_ as mistaken
           | about other things. If you start confusing possibles with
           | absolutes things get messy really quickly.
           | 
           | > By the time a true room temp superconductor comes out, it
           | probably won't be in our lifetimes.
           | 
           | It could happen tomorrow, next week, next year, within the
           | next 500 years or later or even never at all. _We just do not
           | know._
        
           | DirkH wrote:
           | You've learnt a lesson and grown from it. There's no reason
           | to blame others for your own actions.
           | 
           | This is also a great opportunity to demonstrate your
           | understanding on how difficult the scientific process is to
           | your friends.
           | 
           | Telling your friends you have changed your mind on everything
           | you told them earlier because of new evidence should be
           | something you take pride in. Because only true scientists
           | change their minds, and even discard their most cherished
           | theories, based on new evidence.
        
           | imchillyb wrote:
           | > I will look like a god damn idiot.
           | 
           | Pride isn't a good look or smell.
           | 
           | Try humility instead. You may not like to eat humble pie, but
           | others love to watch that.
           | 
           | Also, perhaps some introspection would give nuance to why
           | being wrong bothers you so much.
        
         | imtringued wrote:
         | I don't know what you are talking about. This material was
         | never going to revolutionize anything even if it was a
         | superconductor. What you call fun to witness was to me just
         | another episode of "Mat Ferrell's Undecided" except on HN.
         | 
         | Also, you can't solve the most important economic problems
         | through technology anyway. How is a superconductor going to
         | decrease your rent?
        
           | dekhn wrote:
           | Room temp Superconductors, along with fusion, would affect
           | the economy profoundly. What the exact effect on rent would
           | be is hard to predict but under the "post-scarcity society"
           | mental construct, having infinite energy at zero cost
           | (amortized) would presumably make the price of housing
           | change.
        
             | consilient wrote:
             | Room temperature superconductors would not give us zero-
             | cost energy any time soon. Even if one had a high enough
             | critical current to be used in transmission lines (which is
             | not a given), transmission losses are under 10% in modern
             | grids.
        
             | maleldil wrote:
             | How would room temperature superconductors lead to a post-
             | scarcity society?
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | makes it easy to deliver power from huge centralized
               | fusion reactors to the edge. It is neither sufficient,
               | nor necessary, but could be a useful thing to have.
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | The point is that room temperature superconductors only
             | matter if they have several other properties - they have to
             | be ductile (easy to mold into wires), have good material
             | resistance, maintain their superconductivity under high
             | enough currents, and be cheap enough to produce.
             | 
             | A ceramic room-temperature superconductor, like LK-99 would
             | have been, is not a promising material at all, since it's
             | extremely costly to make wires out of it. And even if we
             | found a way to do so, it might not have mattered at all if
             | it only worked for the very low currents/voltages in the
             | original tests.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | I was talking about a hypothetical RTSC that was amenable
               | to industrial scale, not LK-99. Even so, merely knowing
               | that RTSC with poor properties existed, would lead to
               | massive search of the nearby (and other) spaces for
               | better properties.
               | 
               | See the history of glass optimization- hundreds of years
               | of poking around with terrible quality glass, then a
               | revolution during the Schott era, to modern day Gorilla
               | Glass. Or silicon- the initial transistor
               | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Replica-of-first-
               | transist...) was not something you could shove into a
               | missile, that took 15 years to develop. To today's modern
               | ICs which approach the atomic limits of semiconductor
               | manufacturing.
               | 
               | The hope is that the initial RTSCs will follow a similar
               | path, obvious there no guarantee
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | Still, if LK-99 had turned out to be an RTSC, that
               | wouldn't necessarily take us any closer to an industrial-
               | grade RTSC. It could just as well be a false lead, an
               | interesting material with some niche applications that
               | would remain more of a curiosity than anything.
               | 
               | RTSCs are not like cold fusion - as far as we know, they
               | should be possible, so finding one would not upend
               | science in some huge way. If the ones we find don't also
               | happen to have all the other interesting properties we
               | need, then they may never have any significant impact at
               | all. This is what seems to be missed.
               | 
               | If LK-99 had been an RTSC, it should still not have been
               | major news outside materials science research, since it
               | wouldn't have had any direct impact on the economy, nor
               | any predictable pathway to one. Some other future
               | discovery, if it ever happened, would have been the one
               | that actually mattered. That potential future discovery
               | may have built on the current work, but whether it would
               | be 1 year down the line or 10 or 100 or never would not
               | be knowable.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | It's like you're arguing with somebody different from me,
               | who said something entirely different from what I said.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | hunson_abadeer wrote:
         | This is precisely what put me off in these discussions. Not the
         | idea that we might have found a room-temperature superconductor
         | - that part was exciting. It's the part where people
         | confidently talked about its applications without realizing
         | that they probably wouldn't revolutionize CPU performance
         | (Josephson junctions don't seem to work well as non-cryogenic
         | temperatures for reasons unrelated to superconductivity), power
         | grid transmission (transmission lines are already pretty
         | efficient and we already choose _less_ efficient materials for
         | cost), or energy storage (LK-99 would likely have a fairly
         | modest current limit before it stops superconducting).
         | 
         | LK-99 would have interesting applications, known and unknown,
         | but we have a pretty good understanding of superconductors
         | based on 100 years of practical research, and I find this kind
         | of instant punditry pretty tiresome.
        
           | floxy wrote:
           | >Josephson junctions don't seem to work well as non-cryogenic
           | temperatures for reasons unrelated to superconductivity
           | 
           | Can you point me in the direction to learn more about this?
        
           | trzy wrote:
           | Accelerationism has become a religion for many people working
           | in tech. Social media is teaming with John the Baptists
           | heralding the next messiah.
        
           | burnished wrote:
           | Interesting, from what I saw a lot of people got informed on
           | why those overly confident predictions were drek - I don't
           | know that I have seen a claim go unchallenged.
           | 
           | Which seems ideal to me. Very educational.
        
             | cogman10 wrote:
             | It was like stomping out weeds and it wasn't always well
             | received.
             | 
             | I hope that those that got dashed (and observed the
             | dashing) take a step back the next time something from
             | "FuturistSuperScienceNews.com" or whatever pops up touting
             | a revolutionary XYZ. Those sites are like 99% trash that
             | train their readers to distrust science when their
             | clickbate articles don't pan out. If I were conspiracy
             | minded, I'd swear they exist to build out a mistrust in
             | institutions.
        
           | drdeca wrote:
           | I had heard the parts about "probably wouldn't be a big deal
           | for CPU performance" and "probably wouldn't be great for
           | energy storage", but I hadn't heard the point about "we use
           | less efficient materials for power grid transmission than we
           | could, because of costs".
           | 
           | I suppose I didn't expect that we necessarily had like, the
           | "absolute most efficient that could be made" (if that is
           | something substantially more complicated at a materials-
           | science level than "some simple-to-make-alloy"), but I hadn't
           | imagined that it was a substantial difference. (I think I had
           | imagined that they were... copper wires with like,
           | surrounding metal tubes, or something? I hadn't thought much
           | about it.)
           | 
           | Could you either say, or give my a search term I should look
           | up in order to read, a little more about the trade-off being
           | made between materials cost and efficiency of transmission
           | lines?
        
             | cogman10 wrote:
             | The crux of the problem for superconductors used as power
             | delivery is the "critical field" problem. [1]
             | 
             | Super conductors are superconductive to a point. Once that
             | point is crossed they turn into regular conductors. (I've
             | seen ~1A cited. For context, EVs charge at around 500A).
             | 
             | To make them useful for power transmission, you'd have to
             | up the voltage to insane levels to avoid collapsing the
             | field.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_field
        
               | Eduard wrote:
               | or just go the straightforward way and use several
               | transmissions in parallel, as it is already done for
               | existing superconducting lines in production.
               | 
               | The AmpaCity project in Essen, Germany, gives insights
               | about the implementation details, as the involved parties
               | were required to publish their work.
               | 
               | https://www.enargus.de/pub/bscw.cgi/?op=enargus.eps2&q=%2
               | 201...
               | 
               | for the specific aspect under discussion, the Karlsruhe
               | Institute of Technology report is of interest:
               | 
               | https://www.tib.eu/de/suchen/id/TIBKAT:872231372/Ampacity
               | -10...
        
               | floxy wrote:
               | Superconductors have a critical current _density_ (Ampere
               | /m^2) that varies with temperature and external magnetic
               | field[0]. So if you want more current, you need to use a
               | bigger wire (and/or make it cooler). YBCO HTS tapes have
               | enough current density for power transmission[1].
               | 
               | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yttrium_barium_copper_o
               | xide#/m...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.amsc.com/comed-and-amsc-announce-
               | successful-inte...
        
             | svetb wrote:
             | Am not the author of that comment, but the fact that comes
             | to mind is that aluminum is used for virtually all
             | transmission and distribution lines - for price reasons -
             | even though copper has better conductivity.
             | 
             | If we did discover a room-temperature superconductor, I
             | suspect it would be a while before the cost to produce it
             | in the bulk quantities required for electrical transmission
             | are economically attractive compared to what's already
             | available.
        
               | Joker_vD wrote:
               | In some desperate places, people would cut down aluminum
               | power lines and sell them to scrapyards for some quick
               | buck. But _copper_ power lines? Those would be in a
               | similar danger in many more places.
        
               | elihu wrote:
               | Aluminum vs copper is a good example. Another is that we
               | already do use superconducting transmission lines in a
               | few places. We could do more of that, but presumably it's
               | expensive to install and/or maintain otherwise we'd be
               | using it everywhere. I'm not sure what the longest or
               | highest capacity superconducting links currently in
               | existence are.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | > it would be a while before the cost to produce it in
               | the bulk quantities required for electrical transmission
               | are economically attractive compared to what's already
               | available.
               | 
               | Note that there is no guarantee that that would ever
               | happen. Electrical resistance is not the only thing you
               | need for something to be an economically efficient power
               | line. While superconductors are by definition excellent
               | in terms of electrical resistance, there is nothing to
               | guarantee that they wouldn't be too brittle, or too
               | heavy, or too hard to mould into the required shape, or
               | simply require materials that are too rare on Earth. And
               | all of these would not be things that can just be worked
               | around with better production processes or smart
               | engineering - they would be fundamental limitations of
               | the specific material, just like the low temperature
               | requirements of currently known superconductors will
               | never be improved with more research.
               | 
               | So this isn't a matter of _when_ they would reach the
               | point of being better economically, it 's also very much
               | a matter of _if_ they would ever reach that point.
               | Hopefully, we 'll get lucky one day and find a material
               | that is superconducting at room temperature and above,
               | that is study and light and easy to make into wires and
               | made out of abundantly available elements. LK-99
               | certainly wasn't most of these things. Even if it had
               | been superconducting, it wasn't a good candidate for any
               | of the other properties we want anyway, so it likely
               | wouldn't have been much better than other known materials
               | for most applications.
        
             | MobiusHorizons wrote:
             | We frequently use aluminum wires with a higher thickness to
             | make up for the lower conductivity as compared to copper.
             | It's not as simple as cost vs performance though, as
             | aluminum is substantially less dense than copper. Gold and
             | silver are also better conductors than copper, but of
             | course are very expensive, and still have resistance. Zero
             | resistance may be with it on some cases. For instance in
             | projects that currently use high voltage dc it may be worth
             | it due to safety and complexity wins, but that all would
             | depend on how hard (expense and complexity) the
             | superconductor is to deploy.
        
           | raphlinus wrote:
           | Amen. When someone does the math and adds up the winners and
           | losers in all this, one clear winner will be this video from
           | Asianometry, entitled The History of Superconductors (Before
           | LK-99)[1]. It only lightly touched on LK-99 itself, but did
           | an excellent job going through the actual science-based
           | history of superconductors, covering in particular detail
           | previous hype waves. A major point is that the YBCO
           | superconductors, while an amazing scientific discovery,
           | haven't had revolutionary applications, and have only lightly
           | displaced lower temperature (niobium-titanium metal alloy)
           | superconductors in applications requiring generating strong
           | magnetic fields, including MRI machines. For the curious, [2]
           | goes into considerable detail on potential applications and
           | challenges for HTSC in MRI.
           | 
           | [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUczYHyOhLM
           | 
           | [2]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5472374/
        
           | devilsAdv0cate wrote:
           | [dead]
        
         | oreilles wrote:
         | > [...] There was nothing missing from so many beautiful works,
         | except that it was true that the tooth was made of gold. When a
         | goldsmith had examined it, it was found to be gold leaf applied
         | to the tooth with great skill; but books were written before
         | the goldsmith was consulted.
         | 
         | > I am not so convinced of our ignorance by the things that
         | are, and whose reason is unknown to us, than by those that are
         | not, and whose reason we find. This means that not only do we
         | not have the principles that lead to the truth, but that we
         | also have others that accommodate the false very well.
         | 
         | Bernard Le Bouyer de Fontenelle, Histoire des Oracles 1687.
         | Translated with Deepl.
        
         | MiguelHudnandez wrote:
         | I enjoy the optimistic takes as well. I think it's really fun
         | to imagine incredible new materials that change our baseline
         | capabilities in design and manufacturing.
         | 
         | All that said, there's also a case for saving all that energy
         | by seeking out skeptical points of view. See thunderf00t's
         | video from 5 days ago: https://youtu.be/p3hubvTsf3Y
         | 
         | All in all, I appreciate that so many people are enthusiastic
         | about one thing in particular: replicating results. So many
         | people will take a press release or an academic paper at face
         | value. But the real value is in replicating the results.
        
           | gus_massa wrote:
           | The analysis in the video is good, like most of his videos.
           | But I hope someone makes a roge tldwthunderf00t channel, that
           | cut all the parts he repeats and when he laugh of people. A
           | video with the same content and 1/2 of the length would be
           | better.
        
         | earthboundkid wrote:
         | The real superconductors were the friends we made along the
         | way.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | SilasX wrote:
           | "Don't you guys get it? We _did_ find a room-temperature
           | superconductor! It was _us_ -- conducting _teamwork_ , with
           | no resistance."
           | 
           | Sitcom's live studio audience: "Awwwwwww!"
        
         | gabagaul wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
         | godelski wrote:
         | > but the excitement and amount of replication on this paper
         | was pretty fun to witness and experience.
         | 
         | I was really elated to see how people were so interested and
         | getting to see what peer review in science actually looks like.
         | How in the real world it is done outside of journals and
         | conferences, which people frequently give the misnomer "peer
         | review." I hope people will walk away from this experience with
         | a better understanding of how science works and why replication
         | is such a critical aspect of it. Because the truth is that our
         | academic incentive structure has generally fallen out of
         | alignment with the actual goals of science.
        
           | doctorpangloss wrote:
           | > Because the truth is that our academic incentive structure
           | has generally fallen out of alignment with the actual goals
           | of science.
           | 
           | Did it though? Nobody published this, which is good, right?
           | And then Max Planck Institute gave the most conclusive
           | answer, and they're the most prestigious replicator-to-be
           | mentioned, so that also sounds good right?. And now, Mr. L
           | and Mr. K will not receive funding for this material, because
           | it decisively failed to publish, which is also good?
           | 
           | I don't know. It sounds like the academic incentive structure
           | worked really well here.
        
           | freedomben wrote:
           | Unfortunately I don't think we got "to see what peer review
           | in science actually looks like" because this was such an
           | unusual deal. The amount of interest and excitement gave us
           | the ideal amount of peer review/reproduction. For the vast
           | majority of things nobody even _tries_ to reproduce it, and
           | many of the publishers don 't even provide the tools needed
           | to do so.
        
             | godelski wrote:
             | Yeah, I agree that for the vast majority of things most
             | people don't try. Or at least publicly demonstrate that
             | they tried (key phrasing). But it is also silly to think
             | that 3-5 people sitting at a desk reading a summary of work
             | can validate said work. Really they can only invalidate or
             | specify that it is indeterminate, but neither of these are
             | validation. Which that's a key difference from the general
             | public understanding of "peer review" (meaning journal
             | publication).
             | 
             | But it might also be worth noting that often reproduction
             | happens behind the scene. People point to big works like
             | that which comes out of CERN, LIGO, or other massive
             | projects and state that such works cannot be replicated.
             | But actually those have high rates of replication, which is
             | why there are hundreds of authors on the work.
             | 
             | For LK-99, people got to see a lot of what is typically
             | done by grad students who never tell the public what they
             | did (or even their community). That the communication
             | between scientists is happening through preprints, email,
             | twitter, and other methods that are not journal
             | publications. Because science happens faster than the
             | journal cycle. Most scientists are reading preprints, and
             | letting the work dictate the signal of validity long before
             | a journal can.
             | 
             | But what I was alluding to, which you might have picked up
             | on, is that the reward system we have in place ("publish or
             | perish", h-index, journals, etc) are misaligned as they do
             | not reward this cornerstone of science -- replication --
             | (typically discourages is) unless there are credible claims
             | of breakthroughs of the highest kind. Maybe we should
             | rethink this system, and I hope that the timing of this
             | along with the other discussions of academic fraud can help
             | people to question the system and metrics that we use to
             | evaluate, and ask if they are actually aligned with the
             | original goals.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | This invention almost saved our generation. I mean, our parents
         | invented radar, semiconductors, nuclear energy, etc. For us
         | it's back to building social media, adtech, and similar
         | "technology", I guess.
        
         | oblio wrote:
         | > Great reminder what materials science can do to some
         | underlying economics.
         | 
         | Just economics? :-))
         | 
         | Materials science is practically <<civilization>>.
         | 
         | The Stone Age, the Bronze Age, the Iron Age.
         | 
         | The other axes are: energy production, transportation
         | improvements. But even those frequently come from materials
         | science. The steam engine needed mass production of high
         | quality steel, etc.
        
         | baby wrote:
         | +1. I'm wondering how many people will become physicist due to
         | this wave of exciting news :) we're not getting superconductors
         | today, but we might get less "oh my god the earth is doomed
         | humans are horrible" and more "I'm optimistic about the future
         | of the human race"
        
           | kergonath wrote:
           | As a practising material physicist, I am _very_ enthusiastic
           | about the progress of knowledge in my field and human
           | curiosity and ingenuity, and also _very_ pessimistic about
           | the outlook for our various civilisations and appalled by
           | human carelessness, shortsightedness, and selfishness.
           | 
           | My long term pessimism comes partly from the fact that I know
           | what is behind the magical technologies that are supposed to
           | save us, which is why I am very skeptical about them. I am
           | also very doubtful about our ability to make the right
           | decisions in difficult times and under severe constraints.
           | But hey, I do have a cool, interesting, and enjoyable job.
        
         | aklwiehjra wrote:
         | One of the few things I actually remember from undergrad was a
         | presentation freshman year where some famous person said
         | "almost all major leaps in engineering ability come from one of
         | three things: economics of scale, something else (maybe new
         | algorithm? not sure), or a new material that simply has better
         | properties". I don't want to be a materials scientist, but that
         | line got me very interested in materials science and gave me a
         | lot of respect for it. If you find a new material that is 3x
         | better than any other in some way, that unlocks entirely new
         | doors.
        
         | penjelly wrote:
         | disagree, the excitement led nowhere. We already have high temp
         | superconductors so even if it was real these applications
         | can/are already handled. Its not harmless either, people
         | invested time, money, and effort.
         | 
         | its great to be excited for real science discoveries but hoaxes
         | are not good, and can potentially cripple, crush the industry
         | thats actually developing these things.
        
           | gus_massa wrote:
           | A researcher wasting his/her time in a promising result is
           | business as usual. An important part of the work is to read
           | papers and decide if they are promising enough to try to
           | informaly replicate them and extend them.
           | 
           | There are a lot of details to consider. Does it makes sense?
           | Who published it? Did that team has a gopd track record?
           | Where was it published? Did somepne else used the paper as a
           | base for a new paper? How long/much would it take to try?
           | 
           | Only after that, researches decide to try it or just send it
           | to the paper bin.
        
           | consilient wrote:
           | > its great to be excited for real science discoveries but
           | hoaxes are not good,
           | 
           | There's absolutely no evidence of a hoax. The original
           | authors were sloppy and overeager, not malicious.
        
         | jschveibinz wrote:
         | On the bright side: when people say "believe in the science,"
         | this is exactly what they should be thinking: challenge.
         | 
         | This whole process has been super healthy and similar
         | challenges are important and needed for everything published,
         | not just this particular research area.
         | 
         | I might be out in left field, but I read so often that
         | researchers are running out of ideas. What's wrong with getting
         | a PhD for challenging something already published? It is
         | incredibly valuable to society.
        
           | imiric wrote:
           | > This whole process has been super healthy
           | 
           | Has it, though?
           | 
           | The South Korean paper claimed to have found "The First Room-
           | Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor". It took a month
           | for researchers around the world to essentially debunk this.
           | 
           | Science works by peer review, yes, but that should have never
           | been a claim to begin with. They were blinded by excitement
           | of the results and eager to publish the paper, instead of
           | being conservative and making sure they got everything right.
           | 
           | Now it's clear that they missed several key aspects that seem
           | trivial in retrospect. It's just sloppy science.
           | 
           | Sure, this caused much excitement in science nerds
           | everywhere, and the media got more ad impressions, but
           | overall I wouldn't qualify this particular event as "super
           | healthy".
           | 
           | Coincidentally, or not, this[1] is currently on the front
           | page.
           | 
           | [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37137405
        
           | 93po wrote:
           | Does this extend to climate change science too?
        
             | salty_biscuits wrote:
             | Yes.
        
             | belthesar wrote:
             | Sure, but there's a level of entry to the "challenge" call
             | to action. When folks are saying "believe in the science",
             | it also means to believe in the scientific method, which
             | does include challenging observations and independently
             | validating conclusions. A proper challenge requires coming
             | up to the plate, proposing a challenging hypothesis to a
             | given conclusion, and then going through the work required
             | to test your hypothesis, documenting the inputs, the
             | variables, and showcasing your outputs.
             | 
             | What this doesn't mean is the average human who does not
             | like the conclusion producing a statement saying "I don't
             | think that's real", or even going so far as to cite data
             | which could appear to refute the conclusion, are producing
             | a challenge to the conclusion. They're just stating an
             | opinion. This isn't designed to be exclusionary, but to
             | ensure that challengers are going through the effort that
             | the producer of the conclusion did. If one is not willing
             | to learn the problem space enough to reasonably challenge
             | the effort, then that challenge is moot.
        
             | hackerlight wrote:
             | Not too long ago, a creationist would have sarcastically
             | asked "Does this extend to biology too?", and gone away
             | thinking they had made an actual argument.
        
               | 93po wrote:
               | Try challenging climate science, even in a valid way, and
               | see how popular it is on reddit or HN or twitter. Even my
               | above comment now has a negative score which sort of
               | proves my point.
               | 
               | note: i don't deny climate science but like any science
               | there are ways to challenge it
        
         | xattt wrote:
         | It sounds a lot like the thoughts that one might have before
         | the draw for a large lottery jackpot.
         | 
         | It's a fun exercise, but it's fantastical thinking.
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
         | Agreed:
         | 
         | > going viral on TikTok isn't the new peer review
         | 
         | Not so sure:
         | 
         | > science is still best done the old fashioned way
         | 
         | It's not surprising that social networks designed to serve ads
         | aren't outperforming scientific journals at deriving scientific
         | consensus. But it would be interesting to see how the journals
         | stack up to a social network that was designed for deriving
         | scientific consensus.
        
         | gataca wrote:
         | > HN commenters who were incessantly bringing up the failed
         | Western scientific and political order in a hundred threads
         | about this
         | 
         | This especially was simultaneously comical and cringe-worthy
        
         | coolspot wrote:
         | > -1 to (...) Russian anime cat girls
         | 
         | Don't you dare!
        
       | wayvey wrote:
       | What are the practical implications of this?
        
         | tareqak wrote:
         | Perhaps scientists will create a checklist for performing
         | experiments on potential superconductive materials with caveats
         | and gotchas.
         | 
         | A team going down the checklist would either demonstrate one of
         | 
         | 1. They performed the step in the checklist and provide the
         | corresponding sufficient/exhaustive evidence of having done so.
         | 
         | 2. An explanation as to why that step is not applicable
         | allowing them to skip said step.
         | 
         | An afterthought:
         | 
         | 3. The following will not always be possible for any given
         | experiment. However, the LK-99 experiment used cheap materials
         | and a relatively straightforward process to create the material
         | (from my readings of what others have said), I think the
         | scientists in question should have attempted to reproduce the
         | results of their experiment and document the number of
         | successful attempts versus total attempts.
        
           | EvgeniyZh wrote:
           | 1. Check that it actually superconducts
        
             | OJFord wrote:
             | That's not trivial, because if it's known to be impure then
             | you expect some resistance in your measurement, you already
             | know it won't be 0R. And if you think it is pure and
             | superconducting then how low does your test equipment go
             | anyway?
             | 
             | I'm not an expert in the field at all, but aiui that's why
             | they would have been looking at what seem like roundabout
             | tests etc. that don't seem like they're actually addressing
             | what's interesting.
        
           | CharlieDigital wrote:
           | This is basic software/systems validation that's required in
           | many industries (my experience being in life sciences, but
           | have also seen this in aerospace).
           | 
           | Is there no analogue in the physical sciences?
        
         | neolefty wrote:
         | We know why it fooled everybody, but AFAIK the material doesn't
         | have any outstanding properties. With certain impurities and
         | under certain conditions, it:
         | 
         | - has a striking drop in resistivity during a temperature
         | change -- a property published in 1951 as a property of copper
         | sulfide
         | 
         | - has some ferromagnetic properties -- enough to be tipped up
         | in a magnetic field but not to levitate
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | _some ferromagnetic properties_
           | 
           | I'm still interested int hat, as it seems like it could be
           | quite useful and the LK-99 material is not especially hard to
           | produce.
        
       | dtx1 wrote:
       | Unfortunate news but i'm glad i was there for the ride.
        
       | duringmath wrote:
       | It was interesting seeing real peer reviewed science from
       | accredited labs like LLNL and Fermi get brushed aside and almost
       | dismissed while people were cheering on this LK-99 thing.
       | 
       | Not sure what to make of that but that's what I'll remember most
       | about this debacle.
        
         | chrononaut wrote:
         | That's what I most remember too from this.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | chmod600 wrote:
       | None of the earlier articles mentioned ferromagnetic levitation
       | vs superconducting levitation and how to tell them apart.
        
         | themagician wrote:
         | Because all of the people publishing information about this
         | were playing the options market. There was no need to actually
         | educate anyone on anything. This was a scam. It worked.
         | 
         | One person sees the opportunity it creating a hype train and
         | gets a few buddies on board. Loads up on $1 calls for something
         | they feel could be the next meme stock, like AMSC. Options
         | start to load up on 7/18, just a few days before the 7/22
         | original drop on arxiv. You get the 7/22 drop and then uploads
         | of grainy videos start to show up. Bank a few million in
         | options contracts as the price of AMSC doubles overnight. Other
         | people see the hype train leaving the station and start their
         | own, using the same strategy.
         | 
         | It's how you end up with a dozen potato quality videos and very
         | specific information attached to the comment threads, "This is
         | going to be HUGE for quantum computing @IonQ_Inc if true."
         | 
         | We have seen these types of market manipulation scams in the
         | past. This was the first time we've seen someone use something
         | like arxiv to do this. Brilliant idea, really. We will see more
         | in the future no doubt.
        
         | adrian_b wrote:
         | There is no such thing as ferromagnetic levitation (i.e. there
         | is no stable position).
         | 
         | Nevertheless, a piece of ferromagnetic material which has a
         | permanent remanent magnetization (which is possible only for a
         | subset of the ferromagnetic materials) when put on a magnet may
         | take a position close to vertical, with one edge pressed on the
         | magnet.
         | 
         | It is very easy to verify if this is what you see by moving the
         | piece of material to the other pole of the magnet, where it
         | must take a reversed position, with the other edge pressed on
         | the magnet.
         | 
         | A diamagnetic material will be equally repelled by both poles
         | of the magnet, so moving it between the poles will not change
         | its behavior.
         | 
         | A soft ferromagnetic material, like iron, will be equally
         | attracted by both poles of the magnet.
         | 
         | The explanations that iron impurities could be present in
         | quantities so great as to form some unknown iron compounds with
         | high coercivity and some unknown experimental circumstances
         | could magnetize permanently the samples, are not significantly
         | more credible than the claims that room-temperature
         | superconductors do exist.
         | 
         | In any case, anyone who has made some samples can verify easily
         | whether they are ferromagnetic or diamagnetic. It would be more
         | credible that someone has made fake claims, than that they have
         | mistaken a ferromagnetic material for a diamagnetic material.
        
           | chmod600 wrote:
           | Thank you for the informative reply.
           | 
           | Given that it's so easy for the experimenter to verify, you
           | are saying that the most credible explanation is scientific
           | fraud?
        
       | usrbinbash wrote:
       | One of the good things that came out of this whole story: A very
       | public demonstration, transported through mass and even social
       | media channels, how empiricism and the principle of falsification
       | work, and why they are the only known reliable process for
       | generating knowledge.
        
         | morelisp wrote:
         | No, mass and social media stopped paying attention days ago
         | because Trump or Hawai'i or whatever. In a few years some might
         | have a flashback, Google "what happened stupor conduct", and
         | after a few sentences conclude science isn't really worth
         | paying attention to after all.
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | Stopping paying attention in the sense of "waiting for news"
           | sense, sure.
        
           | MichaelZuo wrote:
           | I would charitabily read the parent's comment as referring to
           | the middle brow 'mass media' aimed at those moderately above
           | average in terms of paying attention to these topics.
           | 
           | It overlaps with a sizable majority of the HN readerbase.
           | 
           | Not the mass media of grocery store checkout aisle magazines.
        
             | morelisp wrote:
             | We have wildly diverging views of the average HNer. I'm
             | thinking the median is much closer to "Russian catgirl
             | home-cook on X" than "studious reader of The Atlantic".
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | themagician wrote:
         | The people who made millions off this saw something positive
         | from it.
        
           | arcticfox wrote:
           | who made millions off of this?
        
       | kitanata wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | iraqmtpizza wrote:
       | I don't see how 0.002 ohms per cm could be confused with
       | superconductivity. Is that not orders of magnitude too high? Or
       | there are no instruments which can directly measure resistance
       | more precisely?
        
         | floxy wrote:
         | The units for resistivity would be ohms*cm (Ohms times a
         | length), not Ohms per cm. Then if you divide by the cross-
         | sectional area of a sample, you would get the resistance per
         | length.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_resistivity_and_con...
        
           | deepspace wrote:
           | Yes, I was typing faster than I was thinking. I should have
           | said Resistivity instead of Resistance and ohms.m instead of
           | ohms/m. My point is still valid, though.
        
         | deepspace wrote:
         | Yes, that was my first thought. There are absolutely
         | instruments which can directly measure resistance down to 10E-8
         | ohms/m or lower, and I would expect any lab doing research into
         | superconductivity to at least have one of those.
        
           | iraqmtpizza wrote:
           | Also, "not a superconductor" means that it can't superconduct
           | at any temperature. Where is the evidence of that? Or it's
           | just clickbait?
        
             | shawabawa3 wrote:
             | By that logic we might as well say that wood is a
             | superconductor
             | 
             | Nobody has tested it at 0.0000000000000K after all
        
               | iraqmtpizza wrote:
               | Testing at 5 Kelvin is not hard. You don't have to take
               | everything ultraliterally.
               | 
               | And science isn't about saying wood isn't a
               | superconductor because it's impractical to test. That's
               | not a result. You may be getting science confused with
               | engineering.
        
               | floxy wrote:
               | One group claimed that their sample of LK-99 went
               | superconducting at ~110K:
               | 
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192
        
       | chubot wrote:
       | Well I'm kinda glad I missed this whole news cycle
       | 
       | IMO this phenomenon seems to be kind of an artifact of modern
       | media -- I feel like in the old days, peers would have settled it
       | among themselves, and we would have never heard about it
       | 
       | The same thing happens in tech -- there is a lot of stuff that
       | people talk about, that ends up being worth ignoring
       | 
       | ...
       | 
       | I always bring up that whole news cycle in 2017 about a potential
       | war with North Korea. How many people spent time and energy on
       | that, and how do they feel about that now? Media is adversarial
        
         | Eji1700 wrote:
         | We had similar nonsense with r the EM Drive and cold fusion so
         | this isn't that new.
         | 
         | Either way the best video I've seen on this whole thing, Abe
         | why it's endlessly frustrating, is this:
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl-AgmoZ5mo
        
           | goku12 wrote:
           | It's easy call those claims nonsense in retrospect. However,
           | many important discoveries were made from equally fantastic
           | observations. We would have missed a lot if we brushed them
           | aside cynically. The only way to know for sure is to test the
           | claim scientifically. As the LK99 saga has shown, even
           | incredible claims must be discussed and tested in public.
           | This is one episode where the media hype did work - though
           | the result was disappointing. Well! That's the price you pay
           | for progress.
        
             | Eji1700 wrote:
             | > It's easy call those claims nonsense in retrospect.
             | 
             | People were calling out the over hyping, the bad science,
             | and the bad graph from day 1. The original scientists
             | DIDN'T want to publish.
             | 
             | Almost all important discoveries have been made from PROPER
             | science. If you have surprising results, you verify them.
             | You verify your test results. You verify your methodology.
             | You repeat the experiment.
             | 
             | How many important discoveries aren't found because they
             | can't get funding/attention because "doing it right" is
             | somehow seen as wrong now.
        
           | brutusborn wrote:
           | I really like the video but I disagree with his prescription
           | for peer review to increase trust in science.
           | 
           | People don't distrust scientists because there isn't enough
           | peer review or because of pre-prints failing to replicate,
           | they distrust scientific institutions because scientific
           | institutions often communicate their current best theory as
           | the truth and pretend that they can 'prove' things true by
           | way of 'scientific consensus.' Going against the consensus
           | can ruin or limit your career.
           | 
           | Lots of examples: climate scientists making claims of ice
           | free arctic by 2020, dietary science flip flopping on diet
           | advice (fat and butter is bad, carbs are bad), covid vaccines
           | being a silver bullet, ivermectin not being effective [1].
           | Add in problems in social 'sciences' like the Sokal affair,
           | psychology replication crisis, mainstream economists failing
           | to predict the GFC, definitions of foundational terms like
           | "woman" changing, and you have a recipe for the general
           | public not trusting academia or 'scientific' institutions in
           | general. Science and academia in general is being polluted by
           | politics and it is incentivising academics to exaggerate the
           | accuracy of their knowledge.
           | 
           | [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarti
           | cle... I added the reference here because Ivermectin was a
           | horrible case of politicising science: mainstream
           | institutions called it an animal medicine with full knowledge
           | it was safe for humans. And now there is a potential
           | mechanism for its effect, it looks like it may have been
           | effective after all. During the pandemic I heard many
           | scientists laugh at people for considering it, all because an
           | authority they trusted told them it was silly.
        
             | tuatoru wrote:
             | Your specific examples are of media wilfully
             | misunderstanding what the science says in order to
             | sensationalise, and get clicks. Get your science from the
             | newspaper, get trash.
             | 
             | Ivermectin, for instance, has been on the World Health
             | Organisation's list of essential medicines for a long time.
             | 
             | The replication crisis is a real thing, for sure.
             | 
             | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WHO_Model_List_of_Essentia
             | l_Me...
        
               | brutusborn wrote:
               | I don't think the media caused the psychology replication
               | crisis. The media plays a part in all this, but the
               | scientific institutions shouldn't crumble to media or
               | political pressure.
               | 
               | See the FDA's advice on Ivermectin:
               | https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/why-you-
               | shoul...
               | 
               | "Ivermectin has not been shown to be safe or effective
               | for these indications," but fail to mention that there is
               | no evidence that it is not safe for this particular
               | indication. This implies it wasn't banned for safety
               | reasons. It was banned because many associated it with
               | Trump and right wing conspiracy theories.
               | 
               | There was no science used to justify banning it to begin
               | with, and we are now years later, with a potential
               | mechanism for the benefit and it is still banned!
               | 
               | One more link to prove I'm not completely insane: the AMA
               | and other mainstream medical bodies recommended not using
               | it for Covid https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/press-
               | releases/ama-aph...
        
         | brutusborn wrote:
         | I wonder if this is a net positive, since media hype would
         | increase likelihood of future funding or investment, so the
         | hype generates accelerated progress.
         | 
         | It could also be the opposite: shiny result causes over
         | investment in an area of tech which isn't productive.
        
         | rgoulter wrote:
         | > IMO this phenomenon seems to be kind of an artifact of modern
         | media
         | 
         | To my understanding, these researchers had been working on this
         | for decades and were confident what they had was good.
         | 
         | Once the information was leaked, the scientific community was
         | roused, and came to consensus within days.
         | 
         | I think the contrast in those two timescales is noteworthy.
        
         | empath-nirvana wrote:
         | Room temperature superconductivity, like quantum computing,
         | fusion power, and em drives, and other similar "magic"
         | technologies, have one thing in common, which is that the
         | potential consequences of their existence are positive,
         | substantial, and relatively easy to explain and to comprehend,
         | while the difficulties preventing those technologies from
         | seeing the light of day are complex, difficult, and a "bummer"
         | to hear about.
        
           | tuatoru wrote:
           | I'm struggling with the claimed consequences.
           | 
           | The electricity grid has losses of about 30 percent, so a
           | fully superconducting grid could increase delivered power by
           | about 43 percent, not an order of magnitude more.
           | 
           | More compact MRI machines would be nice to have, certainly,
           | but wouldn't materially change mortality.
           | 
           | What else is there?
        
             | kbelder wrote:
             | Our electrical grid has losses of 30 percent, even after
             | being designed to minimize those losses. Superconductivity
             | wouldn't simply remove those losses; it would remove that
             | design constraint, enabling (for example) solar panels in
             | the Sahara to power households in Siberia. It would mostly
             | fix the power storage problem for renewables.
             | 
             | The point is that at a certain level, a quantifiable
             | increase in efficiency causes a qualitative change in
             | capabilities.
        
           | jliptzin wrote:
           | Is that true for RTSCs? In the last month of this saga, every
           | time I saw someone comment on some amazing new technology
           | that RTSC would enable, another expert would chime in and
           | explain why that's not actually possible or feasible for
           | various reasons. The only convincing gain I've seen is a ~10%
           | drop in power transmission costs. But obviously this can't be
           | right because of how excited everyone gets about it.
        
             | teraflop wrote:
             | If RTSCs turn out to be viable, they would reduce power
             | transmission costs by maybe 10% for our _current_
             | infrastructure. That 's just because we don't build power
             | lines over distances where the losses would be much greater
             | than that, because it doesn't make sense.
             | 
             | But they would also enable _new_ infrastructure beyond what
             | is currently feasible, because we could transport power
             | over much longer distances without any increased loss.
             | 
             | For example, you could transport solar power from the
             | daylit side of the earth to the night side.
        
         | mempko wrote:
         | It's better to miss news cycles, but at least this one was
         | about exciting science instead of dreadful politics.
        
           | penjelly wrote:
           | this particular news cycle was the final straw for me using
           | twitter. Its not worth 1-3day new cycle is 99% of claims are
           | bs
        
         | eesmith wrote:
         | When are these old days? I remember cold fusion from the late
         | 1980s.
         | 
         | There's polywater from the 1960s.
         | 
         | N-rays in the 1900s (the first decade) made it to
         | "spiritualists" and "crackpots and extremists" outside of
         | academia,
         | https://archive.org/details/flashofcathodera0000dahl/page/24...
         | .
         | 
         | Giovanni Schiaparelli 1877 observation of "canali" on Mars
         | captivated the public.
        
           | jonathankoren wrote:
           | The Martian canals are interesting misinformation phenomena.
           | A phenomenon that we've seen repeated among the woo crowd.
           | 
           | Schiaprelli points his telescope at Mars, and sees some faint
           | squiggles. He suspects they're something dried river beds,
           | and calls them "channels", like a river channel. Being
           | Italian, he uses the Italian word, "canali".
           | 
           | This word, being the same word used for "canal" in English,
           | gets translated as "canal". However in English, "canal"
           | refers exclusively to an artificial construction, where as
           | "channel" doesn't have that distinction.
           | 
           | This framing now primes, people when looking at blurry faint
           | marks on Mars. Someone tries to map the "canals" and either
           | through an act of simplification/illustration, or
           | psychological priming, connects dark regions (river deltas?)
           | to each other via straight lines -- perhaps the shape most
           | evocative of artificiality.
           | 
           | And so it snowballs.
           | 
           | I don't think the canal theory ever gained much traction.
           | (It's a wild idea!) Telescopes just weren't good enough to
           | consistently observe the channels, let alone see them well
           | enough for a definitive answer. We had to wait for Mariner 4
           | for that.
        
             | eesmith wrote:
             | > I don't think the canal theory ever gained much traction.
             | 
             | I'm not sure what you mean by traction. I wanted to show
             | examples of scientific disagreement which made it to the
             | popular press, to argue that it's been happening for a long
             | time.
             | 
             | Using one of the sources mentioned at
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martian_canals lists several
             | I found this 1902 textbook which suggests it did have
             | traction among astronomers for at least a couple of years,
             | though not general acceptance. Quoting https://archive.org/
             | details/manualofastronom00younrich/page/... :
             | 
             | ] These new markings are faint and very difficult to see,
             | and for several years there was a strong suspicion that he
             | was misled by some illusion, -- in respect to their
             | "gemination," at least, -- which is still ascribed, by some
             | very high authorities, to astigmatism in the eye of the
             | observer or bad focusing of his telescope. Still, the
             | weight of evidence at present favors the reality of the
             | phenomena which Schiaparelli describes. Many observers,
             | both in Europe and the United States, have confirmed his
             | results, and they are now generally accepted, although some
             | of the best, armed with very powerful telescopes, still
             | fail to see the canals as anything but the merest shading
             | 
             | I say "couple of years" because there are several editions
             | of that textbook! In 1904 at https://archive.org/details/at
             | extbookgenera05youngoog/page/3... :
             | 
             | ] [Schiaparelli's] observations have since been confirmed
             | and added to by various eminent astronomers in Europe and
             | America, especially by Perrotin at Nice and Lowell in
             | Arizona. But others, equally eminent and apparently under
             | equally favorable conditions, fail to see the reported
             | features.
             | 
             | While in 1888 at https://archive.org/details/textbookofgene
             | ra00youn/page/346/...
             | 
             | ] "If there is not some fallacy in the observation, the
             | problem as to the nature of these canals, and the cause of
             | their gemination, it is a very important and perplexing
             | one. It is hoped that at the next favorable opposition in
             | 1892 it may find its solution."
        
         | creeble wrote:
         | Oh man, there's goes my https://lk99.com community website!
        
         | mcphage wrote:
         | > MO this phenomenon seems to be kind of an artifact of modern
         | media -- I feel like in the old days, peers would have settled
         | it among themselves, and we would have never heard about it
         | 
         | That's what happened here--peers settled it among themselves.
         | 
         | > there is a lot of stuff that people talk about, that ends up
         | being worth ignoring
         | 
         | Of course. The thing is, you never know whether it's worth
         | ignoring or not unless some people pay attention to it.
         | 
         | > How many people spent time and energy on that, and how do
         | they feel about that now?
         | 
         | Pretty good that we didn't go to war with North Korea?
         | 
         | > Media is adversarial
         | 
         | In some cases it's adversarial, and in some cases it's
         | complicit. In that case specifically, sabre rattling was part
         | of Trump's negotiation tactics, and media playing up the
         | possibility of war was his intention.
        
         | babypuncher wrote:
         | The larger media outlets were smart enough to stay away from
         | the hype until there was more data available from replication
         | efforts. Maybe they're learning? Everything I saw about LK-99
         | before the last week or so was on HN or social media.
        
         | timeon wrote:
         | News cycle? Maybe if you count Twitter as tabloid.
         | 
         | When the hype came people here were asking: 'why western labs
         | and traditional media are so passive?'. Then Nature came with
         | article telling people to calm down. People here called Nature
         | and peer reviews to be in decline.
        
         | awb wrote:
         | > I always bring up that whole news cycle in 2017 about a
         | potential war with North Korea. How many people spent time and
         | energy on that, and how do they feel about that now? Media is
         | adversarial
         | 
         | And then there are tons of counter examples: "no way Russia
         | will invade Ukraine", "Hitler will stop at Poland", etc. then
         | the opposite happens. How do those people feel? Did they
         | dismiss the stories warning of imminent conflict as adversarial
         | media hysteria?
         | 
         | Expecting people to correctly follow a news story or not based
         | on an unknown future outcome is impossible.
         | 
         | If you can consistently bat above .500 in predicting the news,
         | there's a lot of money to be made in prediction markets.
        
         | tamimio wrote:
         | 100% agree, that's the problem with social media and why I hate
         | it.. you have people with 20% knowledge in the subject but with
         | thousands of followers grifting on the topic, while the actual
         | scientists (or subject matter experts) barely have any voice or
         | influence, and results? Public opinion is being shaped by those
         | idiots
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | asdfman123 wrote:
         | In tech's case it's oftne just people manipulating the markets.
         | X is the next big thing, X will revolutionize the world, invest
         | everything in X.
         | 
         | The people driving the hype cycle sell at the peak, make a
         | quick buck, and move on to the next thing. Unfortunately, I
         | think it's a key factor in driving the shitification of
         | everything.
        
           | babypuncher wrote:
           | "AI" is going through this process at record pace. So far
           | every money-making application I've seen for it has just made
           | existing products worse by reducing the number of humans
           | involved in production. Shittier artwork, shittier blog
           | posts, even shittier recipes.
           | 
           | At least with social media we had a few good years where
           | everything was awesome and it felt like our lives were being
           | enriched, not cheapened.
        
             | asdfman123 wrote:
             | Some of the tech being pumped has a few useful
             | applications, some of it has no useful applications.
        
         | Permit wrote:
         | > Well I'm kinda glad I missed this whole news cycle
         | 
         | What negative effects would you have suffered if you had not
         | missed this news cycle?
        
           | timeon wrote:
           | Time wasted. I have not missed this cycle. All posts and
           | discussions I have read were pointless at best - toxic at
           | worst.
        
             | Permit wrote:
             | Perhaps it's because I am a complete outsider to the field
             | but I found the discussions interesting and learned many
             | new things about materials science and superconductivity
             | that I didn't know before.
             | 
             | I could imagine an expert in this field having the opposite
             | take as they almost certainly already knew the little bits
             | of trivia that I picked up.
        
         | RationPhantoms wrote:
         | You're arguing for less transparency here? I think one of the
         | side benefits to witnessing the LK-99 discussion is people from
         | all walks (sure, Twitter/X isn't the end all/be-all of global
         | communication) discussing/following/listening to actual science
         | happen.
         | 
         | Do you know how much of that is worth to the world with knock-
         | on effects? Maybe there were future material scientists sitting
         | in the room with their parents listening to the discussion? I
         | feel like that's equally as important as peer
         | review/replication.
        
           | HaZeust wrote:
           | You cannot please these people, simply put. These folks STILL
           | want the ESSENCE of a shared respect and excitement from the
           | common man for scientific progression - and these folks are
           | the same people, mind you, that speak loudly on the ignorance
           | of the cluster groups within the "anti-science" big tent. But
           | when these same folks see a glimpse of collective curiosity
           | for science and methodologies among a lot of people, they
           | long for the days of opacity and "mature handling of
           | scientific consensus". Which, ironically, was the path in
           | which almost ALL scientific progressions that spawned anti-
           | science sentiments had taken.
           | 
           | You can't win.
        
             | dTal wrote:
             | Not-that-unpopular opinion: Some form of soft gatekeeping
             | is required to keep a healthy signal/noise ratio, in a lot
             | of contexts.
             | 
             | The issue is, what sort of gatekeeping, and how aligned is
             | it with the desired effect? Even simply crudely throwing up
             | all sorts of arbitrary obstacles (e.g. various forms of
             | academic hazing) is sufficient to at least keep out people
             | who aren't willing to put in some sort of effort. The
             | problem is that has a lot of collateral damage - it also
             | loses perfectly fine people whose only flaw is a low
             | tolerance for institutionally imposed arbitrary obstacles.
             | A perfect gatekeeping mechanism would exclude everyone who
             | can't contribute while presenting minimal obstacles to
             | those who can. I don't want to speculate here what that
             | might look like, but it's not contradictory to want
             | everyone to have access to science while simultaneously
             | wanting ignorant loudmouths to be gently suppressed.
             | 
             | If I may mutilate a beloved Pixar film, "anyone can
             | science". But not everyone can be a scientist. Everyone
             | should just be given a chance.
        
             | haswell wrote:
             | I think a different way to frame this is that an Internet
             | discussion will involve people with opinions across the
             | spectrum.
             | 
             | I don't think this is about pleasing "these people", but
             | about recognizing which attitudes are useful and which are
             | not. Encountering some mix of all of the above is a product
             | of the diversity of people involved in the conversation,
             | and not necessarily "these people" wanting it both ways.
        
               | HaZeust wrote:
               | My framing is fine, in my biased opinion. Saying, "You
               | can't please these people about this" is essentially the
               | same as saying "Their attitude about this is not useful"
               | - though one might be more polite.
               | 
               | Maybe I went amiss, maybe I need perspective, but I don't
               | see why a consideration for a re-frame is necessary if
               | one still gets their point across; albeit maybe with more
               | "passion" than necessary.
        
               | haswell wrote:
               | > _These folks STILL want the ESSENCE of a shared respect
               | and excitement...But when these same folks see a glimpse
               | of collective curiosity...they long for the days of
               | opacity and "mature handling of scientific consensus"_.
               | 
               | You are claiming that it's the same group of people
               | holding incongruous viewpoints.
               | 
               | My point was that this is likely an illusion caused by
               | the communication medium, i.e. "these people" represent a
               | myriad of individual viewpoints, which may not align
               | because I think "A" and you think "B". Not because I
               | think "A" and "B".
               | 
               | To frame it in this way doesn't allow for a useful
               | exploration of the issue. It casts aside an entire group
               | instead of examining the roots of the problematic
               | behavior. It also creates a straw man - the person who
               | believes both things incongruously, when this person
               | doesn't seem likely to exist, or at least seems likely
               | that this is a rare stance.
               | 
               | > _Saying, "You can't please these people about this" is
               | essentially the same as saying "Their attitude about this
               | is not useful"_
               | 
               | These are saying very different things. One discards the
               | entire person on the basis of a view you disagree with.
               | This is a road to nowhere. The other allows an
               | examination of the actual behavior, which is arguably far
               | more important if there's a case to be made that someone
               | should _change_ their behavior.
               | 
               | "Oh, you're one of _those people_ " gets you nowhere.
               | "The problem with this line of thinking/attitude is that
               | it limits the potential for public excitement and
               | involvement with the process..." gives you and the person
               | who disagree something to work with.
               | 
               | This isn't about being polite. This is about choosing
               | whether the point is to explore the nature of the
               | problem, or to complain about a group of people.
        
       | dralley wrote:
       | Honestly, I feel bad for the original authors, who were
       | _correctly_ holding out for stronger evidence but were forced
       | into publishing early by the actions of a third party going
       | behind their backs.
       | 
       | I hope they don't experience undue blowback because of this.
        
         | m3kw9 wrote:
         | This gives them an out actually
        
         | mgfist wrote:
         | Yet we're all the better for it happening. Even for the
         | original researchers - maybe it would've taken them another 10
         | years to get to a similar conclusion. Now, they can take the
         | next step and not waste more time.
        
           | polishdude20 wrote:
           | Seems like this followed the same rule of internet answers:
           | Ask a question and you'll get crickets. Answer a question
           | wrong and you'll get tonnes of people telling you the right
           | answer.
        
             | nannal wrote:
             | Yeah, the power of Randlow's law cannot be understated.
        
               | nbgoodall wrote:
               | Eurgh I actually Googled that, well played.
        
               | SebJansen wrote:
               | yes, Steven's law has such utility
        
               | explaininjs wrote:
               | Do I read it correctly that doubling the amount of
               | current through your fingers feels like 10x'ing it? If
               | so... shocking.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevens's_power_law
        
             | bilater wrote:
             | omg I love this
        
           | ignite wrote:
           | This was great science. Hypothesis, test, and attempted
           | confirmation. Too bad it's not superconducting, but the
           | process worked the way it is supposed to.
        
         | mi_lk wrote:
         | I'm not aware of it, anything to read about the said third
         | party?
        
         | avereveard wrote:
         | I wonder why it was so difficult for the original authors to
         | get a pure sample, it's not like it took 10 years to create
         | these larger crystsal.
        
         | zulban wrote:
         | I suspect the third party is the one that will mostly suffer
         | the career consequences.
        
           | Gud wrote:
           | For sure! The original researchers showed remarkable
           | restraint considering what they were potentially sitting on.
           | Kudos to them!
        
         | themagician wrote:
         | The question is whether or not the original authors were pawns
         | or part of the scam.
        
         | [deleted]
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | KaoruAoiShiho wrote:
         | I think the story might be more complicated than that, I
         | remember reading that the "third party" was the one paying the
         | bills for the experiment so pushing it out early and even
         | publicly failing would've been preferable to getting it dragged
         | out infinitely for an unlikely hope of it being successful.
        
           | hgsgm wrote:
           | This funder-rushed science exactly what created Doc Ock and
           | the Green Goblin.
        
             | gundamdoubleO wrote:
             | They both had some pretty ground breaking technology to be
             | fair
        
             | pnt12 wrote:
             | Now I'm even more disappointed in the outcome!
        
             | hennell wrote:
             | Is this the origin of "semi-magnetic-man"?
        
       | floxy wrote:
       | So it sounds like the purple crystal isn't repelled by magnets.
       | So what part of the samples was causing the magnetic properties?
       | Or are we saying that _all_ of those videos and images were
       | faked?
        
         | flatline wrote:
         | Says it right there: CuS. You should read the whole thing, it's
         | really well-written and thorough.
        
           | floxy wrote:
           | The Cu2S was responsible for the temperature dependent
           | resistivity measurement caused by a phase change at 104 degC,
           | not the magnet properties. If you have some more information
           | on the ferromagnetic properties of copper sulfides, I'd like
           | to learn more.
        
       | graypegg wrote:
       | You know what? I needed that saga. That was fun. I don't think
       | I've been this interested in any research project since being a
       | kid skimming thru popular science or something :)
       | 
       | It's been so cool to see all of the replication studies, people
       | talking about the latest news and all of that. Kind of a peek
       | behind the scientific curtain to see all of the work that goes
       | into confirming claims.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | jklinger410 wrote:
       | This was absolutely a fun and worthwhile experience for everyone
       | involved. A lot of people got more interested in current
       | materials science because of this. We watched a large community
       | spring up out of nowhere to investigate a new discovery.
       | 
       | It was really an incredible thing to witness, and I see only good
       | things came of it.
       | 
       | I can't really understand the sour grapes commenters in this
       | thread. Not sure if they just want to feel smarter/better than
       | everyone else who went along for this ride, or if they really
       | hold the belief that the best science should be gate-kept in
       | universities and not discussed in a wider context.
       | 
       | Strong get off my lawn energy.
        
         | ShamelessC wrote:
         | For me personally it is just general (mild) annoyance with a
         | community that somewhat consistently likes to think it is
         | smarter and better than others and which is then only ever
         | willing to admit they were wrong in roundabout ways like "well
         | this was all fun, anyone who thinks it was a waste of resources
         | or what-have-you doesn't see how much impact it had".
         | 
         | You can see this wild speculation play out _commonly_ for lots
         | of will-be fads like cryptocurrency, metaverse, prompt
         | engineering, vector databases, "autoGPT"/langchain, GPT3/4
         | performance degradation, GPT4 architecture, and more.
         | 
         | People here dress it all up in well-written prose, citing their
         | past experience at big tech or the ivy league, but at the end
         | of the day much of it is as misinformed as a viral 4chan post.
         | And then, as I said, there is very little postmortem from those
         | same posters (although to be fair, I have seen several
         | cryptocurrency people finally admit they were wrong).
         | 
         | edit:
         | 
         | For clarity, I am not encouraging a shame-based "admit you're
         | wrong and I'm right!" attitude. That just results in more of
         | the same but from the other side. I am merely condoning a
         | healthy amount of humility and acceptance that it is
         | _absolutely_ okay to be wrong, but that it is quite important
         | to _admit_ it (if only to yourself) in fairly clear terms.
         | 
         | My frustrations are largely related to social media in general
         | and the notion that scientists are gatekeeping seems to forget
         | about the very real effects of misinformation. None of us like
         | to realize it, but some people really have begun to take the
         | word of internet comments over the word of credentialed takes
         | and it is _ruining_ society in my opinion.
        
           | taylodl wrote:
           | Exactly, and when you tell people not to get ahead too far
           | ahead of themselves and wait for secondary confirmation
           | before we get all excited, you get downvoted.
           | 
           | This isn't my first rodeo. I've seen this show before.
           | 
           | Now, one of these times, we're going to get a secondary
           | confirmation and then things will get _really_ exciting!
           | Until there 's such a secondary confirmation, I'm going to
           | remain a curious sceptic.
           | 
           | Jade is the color of experience and age.
        
           | SirYandi wrote:
           | Who really knows _that_ much about anything though? Few
           | people are experts in a given topic. Although I see your
           | point, I suppose more people would be good to recognise that,
           | especially about themselves.
           | 
           | That said, this is a fairly general forum and (mostly) for
           | entertainment purposes right?
        
           | penjelly wrote:
           | well said
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | alkibiades wrote:
       | lol at those internet idiots boosting it. they will fall for
       | anything. see: gamestop/crypto
        
       | sdenton4 wrote:
       | In summary, "Fucking magnets, how do they work?"
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-agl0pOQfs
        
         | Gibbon1 wrote:
         | One time I was listening to that and the next thing that played
         | was
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO0r930Sn_8
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | samhuk wrote:
       | > When copper oxide superconductors were discovered in 1986,
       | researchers leapt to probe their properties. But nearly four
       | decades later, there is still debate over the material's
       | superconducting mechanism, says Vishik. Efforts to explain LK-99
       | came readily.
       | 
       | To me, the interesting take-away is that, right at the end. All
       | too often we see peer-review as this slow, inching,
       | _excruciating_ process, particularly in social sciences where it
       | 's a de-facto afterthought. It was great to see science chugging
       | ferociously away like a (somewhat!) well-oiled machine, such as
       | the electronic analysis via slightly different methods (e.g. DFT)
       | and the material synthesis efforts by the Argonne NL and Max
       | Planck Institute.
       | 
       | Farewell for now, RTSC.
       | 
       | Side-note: Pure LK-99 is visually _beautiful_! Who would-a known
       | from those crumbly grey flakes, huh?
        
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