[HN Gopher] Cargo Cult Science (1974) [pdf]
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Cargo Cult Science (1974) [pdf]
        
       Author : ed_westin
       Score  : 222 points
       Date   : 2023-08-13 08:26 UTC (14 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (calteches.library.caltech.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (calteches.library.caltech.edu)
        
       | nextmove wrote:
       | Agreed with everything Feynman wrote. Monkey see, monkey do.
       | 
       | Even if someone questions what everyone else believes is true
       | because "scientists said it", they will only be downvoted and
       | censored.
        
       | throw18376 wrote:
       | I have heard that some anthropologists now have a more
       | complicated view of the cargo cults. They argue that, even if
       | there was some notion of making cargo appear, their main purpose
       | was more political and social. It was an opportunity for the
       | locals to move around in organized groups, even march around
       | doing military drills, without causing the colonial leadership to
       | panic and retaliate. It would bind people together socially and
       | get them used to coordinating under a leader, whose legitimacy
       | would be enhanced.
       | 
       | Sometimes people now claim that "cargo cult science" is not
       | really a good analogy and should be abandoned.
       | 
       | However, I think this newer understanding of cargo cults may
       | actually make it an even better analogy.
       | 
       | Even if a line of scientific ideas is mostly fake and its
       | research practices can't possibly lead to truth, participating in
       | this ritual of fake research, giving talks about it, and other
       | science-shaped activities, still does bind the participants
       | together. It lends prestige to the leaders of the field. It gives
       | everyone a way to coordinate politically around securing funding
       | and legitimacy from higher powers for their fake research area.
       | And we've seen you really can keep a field going this way for a
       | very long time even if the planes never land.
        
         | archepyx wrote:
         | Wikipedia seems to be a good first stop here,
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult and contains several
         | other useful references for entering the rabbit hole of what
         | these cults are and why they appeared.
        
         | fosk wrote:
         | > participating in this ritual of fake research, giving talks
         | about it, and other science-shaped activities, still does bind
         | the participants together. It lends prestige to the leaders of
         | the field. It gives everyone a way to coordinate politically
         | around securing funding and legitimacy from higher powers for
         | their fake research area.
         | 
         | You just described modern US politics.
        
         | gremlinunderway wrote:
         | Yup there's even a very fascinating documentary about this
         | called Waiting For John Frum. It traces the history of
         | background from the insane colonial administration to what led
         | to the development of the John Frum cult.
         | 
         | Basically the gist as I understood it is that when Christian
         | colonial missionaries arrived on Tanna Island, they banned all
         | the local religious practices and quickly established
         | themselves as the sole administrator and authority on the
         | island (giving out harsh discipline and torture basically to
         | maintain this power).
         | 
         | Once WWII comes around, all the missionaries fled, and soon the
         | Americans arrived bringing with them cargo and gear and
         | importantly, employment and autonomy. Locals were used as
         | couriers and carried supplies in support of the Americans, and
         | in return were given "goods" that were to them simply unheard
         | of before.
         | 
         | When the Americans left, the colonial missionaries returned,
         | but because so many people gained this autonomy and ability to
         | practice their former religious ideas, this "cargo cult" formed
         | which essentially was formed by anyone who refused to partake
         | in the Christian authoritarianism that was running the island.
         | People joined simply because it allowed them to have freedom
         | and autonomy and the movement basically fused previous
         | religious practices with these rituals that the Americans
         | brought.
         | 
         | The "dream" for John Frum (i.e. the Americans) to return really
         | meant a dream for independence and the Christian missionaries
         | to leave.
        
         | verisimi wrote:
         | Great last paragraph!
         | 
         | As with any and all human institutions, even those started with
         | the best of intentions, it is surely just a matter of time
         | before money and power corrupt and bend whatever-it-is to
         | server money and power.
        
         | ycombinete wrote:
         | This view of cargo cults appears to be reversing the proximate
         | and ultimate causes.
         | 
         | That said, I thoroughly agree with your last paragraph.
        
         | hliyan wrote:
         | Then this seems to be true of cargo cult programming too:
         | blockchain, NFT, machine learning, agile, cloud-native, big
         | data (or take your pick) enthusiasts creating a great deal of
         | online chatter, organising conventions etc., not merely out of
         | innocent fanaticism, but as a deliberate means to a) draw in VC
         | money b) create consulting opportunities c) build personal
         | branding and finally, d) pad CVs.
        
         | teawrecks wrote:
         | It sounds like you're just describing a religion/cult. All
         | talk, all faith in each other, no substance to back it up, no
         | one dare doubting what is established as true. It's almost like
         | that's where the name came from.
        
           | lqet wrote:
           | A group of people integrated by a lie can achieve things
           | orders of magnitude greater than the same number of mavericks
           | living their lives fully grounded on evident truths. This is
           | the evolutionary explanation of religion/cults in a nutshell.
        
             | katzgrau wrote:
             | Integrated by a belief? Whether it's true or not is
             | irrelevant and subjective.
        
               | lqet wrote:
               | I agree, belief is the better word here.
        
           | wellanyway wrote:
           | Religion is society worshipping itself
        
         | 0x445442 wrote:
         | A better analogy and even more negative. The Cargo Cult label
         | that harkens to Pop Fashion is much less damnable than than
         | which harkens to political dynamics.
        
         | csomar wrote:
         | > And we've seen you really can keep a field going this way for
         | a very long time even if the planes never land.
         | 
         | And it's in many places, if not everywhere. People mock the
         | Polynesians for engaging in a Cargo Cult but they don't realize
         | that most countries do that in more "sophisticated" ways.
         | 
         | Think about the big infrastructure projects that some
         | "dictators" do in some countries. It would make more sense for
         | the dictator to just pocket the money, or distribute it equally
         | if he wants to give it up. But these projects and their
         | prevalence suggests another dynamic at play here.
        
           | rsynnott wrote:
           | > Think about the big infrastructure projects that some
           | "dictators" do in some countries. It would make more sense
           | for the dictator to just pocket the money, or distribute it
           | equally if he wants to give it up. But these projects and
           | their prevalence suggests another dynamic at play here.
           | 
           | I mean, ultimately infrastructure is an investment. Now, it
           | might be a _bad_ investment; some infra projects don't make
           | sense. But there's a fairly obvious reason to do them, and
           | even in totalitarian countries many are good investments.
        
         | prepend wrote:
         | > It was an opportunity for the locals to move around in
         | organized groups, even march around doing military drills,
         | without causing the colonial leadership to panic and retaliate.
         | 
         | It seems like we have entered the explanation phase where
         | reasons are discovered where the stupid and pointless thing
         | actually had some minimal benefit that in no way was worth the
         | effort expended.
         | 
         | I think this is generally a good sign as it means the pain from
         | the event is fading and so people can reflect on it in sort of
         | silly and absurd ways.
        
         | momirlan wrote:
         | doomsday cults also bind participants together...
        
         | mannykannot wrote:
         | This more extensive understanding of cargo cults does not seem
         | to contradict the key element which both distinguishes them
         | from other responses to contact with technologically-developed
         | cultures, and which makes them a useful analogy for Feynman's
         | point: they are activities organized around a profound
         | misunderstanding of the causes behind the phenomena of
         | interest.
        
         | zeroCalories wrote:
         | This is a real problem. Realistically, a well researched flat
         | earth scientist could destroy the average nasa scientist in a
         | debate. You only need to lie about or misrepresent a few facts
         | to undermine a whole field, and to an outside observer it looks
         | like science got conclusively btfo. Of course, given enough
         | time the nasa scientist will be able to piece things together,
         | but they might never be able to recover some people.
         | 
         | While there are legitimate concerns about the scientific method
         | being too strict, I think it's necessary to help us keep faith
         | in a field. That's why I dislike fields that lean into
         | methodological anarchy, like critical theory. They really have
         | no business claiming any sort of authority.
        
           | mistermann wrote:
           | Realistically, a well researched flat earth scientist could
           | destroy the average nasa scientist in a debate. You only need
           | to lie about or misrepresent a few facts to undermine a whole
           | field, and to an outside observer it looks like science got
           | conclusively btfo. Of course, given enough time the nasa
           | scientist will be able to piece things together, but they
           | might never be able to recover some people.
           | 
           | > While there are legitimate concerns about the scientific
           | method being too strict, I think it's necessary to help us
           | keep faith in a field.
           | 
           | Important phrase: " _keep faith in_ " - faith is always in
           | play (it is fundamental to culture & consciousness), and it
           | is healthy for the institution of science to acknowledge it
           | imho.
           | 
           | > That's why I dislike fields that lean into methodological
           | anarchy, like critical theory. _They really have no business
           | claiming any sort of authority_.
           | 
           | Might this be an instance of "You only need to lie about or
           | misrepresent a few facts to undermine a whole field, and to
           | an outside observer it looks like {the field} got
           | conclusively btfo"?
           | 
           | You are discussing your opinion/interpretation of critical
           | theory, _necessarily_ , but it would be very easy for readers
           | (or even yourself) to form a belief (which is typically
           | _perceived as_ knowledge) that your subjective evaluation is
           | objective and accurate.
           | 
           | Science and its methodologies are excellent for figuring out
           | the physical realm, but watch out if you apply these methods
           | to the metaphysical realm.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphysics
        
             | zeroCalories wrote:
             | > Important phrase: "keep faith in" - faith is always in
             | play (it is fundamental to culture & consciousness), and it
             | is healthy for the institution of science to acknowledge it
             | imho.
             | 
             | Science does rest on unfalsifiable foundations, but this
             | isn't productive to discuss. I'm talking about the faith
             | that scientists aren't making stuff up given the reasonable
             | foundations we all already agree on.
             | 
             | > Might this be an instance of "You only need to lie about
             | or misrepresent a few facts to undermine a whole field, and
             | to an outside observer it looks like {the field} got
             | conclusively btfo"?
             | 
             | I don't think so. If you accept my premise that
             | authoritative fields should be held to strict and
             | conservative scientific standards, then critical theory is
             | categorically ruled out by it's own definition. Yet people
             | dress it up as if it were strict and conservative field,
             | like a cargo cult.
             | 
             | > You are discussing your opinion/interpretation of
             | critical theory, necessarily, but it would be very easy for
             | readers (or even yourself) to form a belief (which is
             | typically perceived as knowledge) that your subjective
             | evaluation is objective and accurate.
             | 
             | I think I made my premises clear, but I dislike the
             | suggestion that they are merely my opinions. Most people
             | actually share my views, but are willing to pick and choose
             | when they apply them.
             | 
             | > Science and its methodologies are excellent for figuring
             | out the physical realm, but watch out if you apply these
             | methods to the metaphysical realm.
             | 
             | I'm not applying science to critical theory. My issue with
             | critical theory is it's methods.
        
           | hydrogen7800 wrote:
           | Like the Bill Nye/Ken Ham "debate" some years ago [0]. A bit
           | painful for me to watch. A creationist would come away
           | feeling quite vindicated after that one.
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Nye%E2%80%93Ken_Ham_de
           | bat...
        
           | msla wrote:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law
           | 
           | > The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order
           | of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
           | 
           | The logical conclusion of that is the Gish Gallop:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop
           | 
           | > The Gish gallop /'gIS 'gael@p/ is a rhetorical technique in
           | which a person in a debate attempts to overwhelm their
           | opponent by providing an excessive number of arguments with
           | no regard for the accuracy or strength of those arguments.
           | Gish galloping prioritizes the quantity of the galloper's
           | arguments at the expense of their quality. The term was
           | coined in 1994 by anthropologist Eugenie Scott, who named it
           | after American creationist Duane Gish and argued that Gish
           | used the technique frequently when challenging the scientific
           | fact of evolution.[1][2]
           | 
           | Even if it's a moderated debate where an outright gallop
           | isn't allowed, it's still easier for the dishonest party to
           | erect a strawman claim than it is for the honest one to
           | carefully rebut it, especially if the dishonest claim is so
           | far into wackyland it's Not Even Wrong and requires a lot of
           | its assumed premises to be demolished first.
        
             | Loughla wrote:
             | And with how modern media is structured, for short drive-by
             | statements and social media engagement, this (I would argue
             | natural) human argument style is made a thousand times
             | worse.
        
         | lisper wrote:
         | A perfect example of this is the young-earth creationism
         | movement, which is a fully fledged cargo cult in this sense. It
         | publishes legitimate-looking books and papers, has intellectual
         | leaders who are highly regarded within the group, and an army
         | of well-trained foot soldiers on YouTube and other social media
         | sites. Cargo cults are by no means limited to Polynesia, or
         | even less developed countries. They are everywhere.
        
           | rcme wrote:
           | I mean pretty much all religion is a cargo cult. How is a
           | cargo cult fundamentally different than Catholicism, which
           | has a series of rituals in preparation of the return of
           | Jesus?
        
             | lisper wrote:
             | I guess I wasn't entirely clear on this, but I meant that
             | YEC is an example of cargo cult _science_ in the sense
             | described by the GP.
        
         | rjsw wrote:
         | I suspect that the leaders of the cargo cults were leaders in
         | that society before the "Outside Context Problem" happened, and
         | that the ideas followed by the cult will come from what kind of
         | leader they were. If they were previously a religious leader
         | then the cult would look like a religion.
         | 
         | I think a better example of a cargo cult than bad science is
         | climate change denial. The followers see the potential loss of
         | "cargo" in the form of their current way of life as a problem
         | and the leaders apply the skills that brought them success in
         | politics to that problem. Someone good at reading legal
         | documents is going to think that there is something wrong with
         | scientific papers.
         | 
         | A climate change denial group in the UK [1] rented office space
         | from one of the scientific institutions that used to meet in
         | Carlton House Terrace. The GWPF held meetings where they could
         | talk in a sciency way even though they were not reporting any
         | real science that they had done themselves.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Global_Warming_Policy_Foun...
        
         | Drakim wrote:
         | That is a very interesting view, thank you for sharing it.
         | 
         | I've often used "cargo cults" as a way to categorize stupid
         | ritualistic things about the world I didn't like, but it's good
         | to be reminded that the world isn't so two dimensional.
        
           | tuyiown wrote:
           | This is a problem with the cargo cult analogy, the observer
           | assumes to be an outsider, while it would be more useful to
           | the observer to assume of being part of it.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | It is very difficult to be a part of a different group.
             | Even if you move there it would often take years to become
             | a member, if you ever can get that much trust.
             | 
             | The idea is sound, but don't assume you understand the
             | members enough to do a good job.
        
               | vitiral wrote:
               | I think they meant you should assume that YOU are part of
               | a cargo cult. You should look for ways your own
               | viewpoints/society/etc are cargo-cultish
        
               | prox wrote:
               | Like Feynman says "The first principle is not to fool
               | yourself, and you are the easiest to fool."
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | Case in point:
               | 
               | >> I think a better example of a cargo cult than bad
               | science is climate change denial. The followers see the
               | potential loss of "cargo" in the form of their current
               | way of life as a problem and the leaders apply the skills
               | that brought them success in politics to that problem.
               | Someone good at reading legal documents is going to think
               | that there is something wrong with scientific papers.
               | 
               | Specifically: "The followers see..." - it is not known
               | what climate change "deniers" believe - rather, people
               | _tell each other stories_ about what they believe, and
               | believe these stories to be true. Some humans are
               | currently smart enough to realize that this behavior is
               | flawed in certain scenarios (race /gender/etc
               | stereotypes), but when it comes to ~political
               | stereotyping the mind (and mainstream "right thinking"
               | culture/media/etc) will defend the delusional practice to
               | the death.
               | 
               | Typically these topic are argued primarily using memes
               | (Gish Gallop, Whataboutism, Brandolini's Law, etc) and
               | rhetoric (rendering it not possible for a strict logical
               | perspective to "win"), with some stats and studies
               | included _to give the appearance of_ objectivity,
               | permanently locking humans into this ~conceptual Overton
               | Window.
               | 
               | If humans could analyze and evaluate the system _we are
               | embedded in_ with the same emotional /psychological
               | detachment we analyze computer systems with it would be a
               | big improvement, but I do not see it happening anytime
               | soon.
        
       | swayvil wrote:
       | Isn't "cargo-cult-science" simply "engineering"?
       | 
       | You use the models handed down by the researchers because they
       | work. They help you make machines and navigate reality and such.
       | There's nothing shameful in that. You don't have the time for
       | research. Time is money after all.
       | 
       | You are not a scientist. You are not interested in Truth. You
       | just want to get from A to B.
        
         | bagacrap wrote:
         | Yes, Stack Overflow is also cargo cult programming.
         | 
         | Of course sometimes you have to use tools handed to you by
         | others and sometimes you won't understand how they work (I
         | don't know how CPUs work but it hasn't stopped me from
         | programming).
         | 
         | This speech is largely about how you shouldn't _willfully_
         | delude yourself. I think we 've all had that situation where
         | we're hunting down a bug and rearranging the code _just so_
         | seems to resolve it, but we don 't understand why. At a certain
         | point the temptation is high to shrug your shoulders and move
         | on even without fully understanding the mechanics of the fix.
         | But if you do that, it will likely come back to bite
         | you/someone one day. In the case of science it's even worse
         | than engineering because the entire point of the endeavor
         | _should be_ to advance understanding, rather than to get
         | certain results.
        
         | Sharlin wrote:
         | No. A cargo cult is about doing _X_ , or more commonly some
         | flawed facsimile of _X_ , in order to attain some desirable _Y_
         | , because you've seen someone else do _X_ and indeed attaining
         | _Y_. What you don 't know, however, that _Y_ is not directly
         | caused by _X_ but there exists some _W_ that 's the cause of
         | both _X_ and _Y_.
         | 
         | Now, " _Y_ after _X_ thus _Y_ caused by _X_ " (see: _post hoc
         | ergo propter hoc_ ) is a perfectly fine hypothesis worth
         | testing, but to _keep doing that_ even if it doesn 't work?
         | That's the "cult" part.
         | 
         | What Feynman criticized were certain fields of study, which in
         | his opinion claimed to apply the scientific method to get
         | scientific results (and importantly the associated prestige of
         | Doing Science), but which in his view only practiced a
         | facsimile of the scientific method and got merely facsimiles of
         | scientific results!
         | 
         | Now, cargo cult _engineering_ definitely also exists. If you do
         | _X_ - even without entirely understanding why - and reliably
         | get the wanted result _Y_ , that's engineering. If you don't
         | get exactly Y but are able to adjust X to compensate, that's
         | also engineering. But if you keep doing X without understanding
         | why and keep not getting the wanted result Y (even though you
         | might get some different result Z and misinterpret it as Y),
         | _that 's_ cargo cult engineering!
        
       | lloeki wrote:
       | I was looking for any kind of recording of Feynman's address, all
       | I could find is a third party narrated version, which probably
       | lacks Feynman's unique delivery:
       | 
       | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yvfAtIJbatg
        
         | bagacrap wrote:
         | Can't AI fix this problem yet
        
       | sturza wrote:
       | > It is interesting, therefore, to bring it out now and speak of
       | it explicitly. It's a kind of scientific integrity, a principle
       | of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty
       | --a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you're doing
       | an experiment, you should report everything that you think might
       | make it invalid--not only what you think is right about it: other
       | causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you
       | thought of that you've eliminated by some other experiment, and
       | how they worked--to make sure the other fellow can tell they have
       | been eliminated.
       | 
       | Feels appropriate to the current LK99 discussions
        
       | fsh wrote:
       | My current favorite cargo cult is the quantum computing scene. No
       | practical quantum computer exists, and nobody has a realistic
       | concept for building one. Yet, there are dozens of startups and
       | research groups developing quantum algorithms, quantum cloud
       | computing solutions, etc. They seem to believe that blindly
       | copying what silicon valley did must surely lead to success. What
       | they are missing (or are refusing to accept) is that silicon
       | valley was only successful because they had useful computers
       | _from the very beginning_. In Germany, the cargo cult was even
       | enshrined in the names of two research clusters ( "Munich Quantum
       | Valley" and "Quantum Valley Lower Saxony").
        
         | fastneutron wrote:
         | I work adjacent to this field, and I largely agree when it
         | comes to the software side of things. With some notable
         | exceptions, a lot of pure-play "quantum software" companies are
         | premature optimizations to a field who's hardware can best be
         | described as physics experiments with a Python API. Many of
         | these places are pivoting to "AI" applications, which is simply
         | them putting their mouths where the money is. If a "quantum
         | winter" happens, many of these places will be the first to go.
         | 
         | I think this is partially a symptom of cargo culting the SV
         | model, like you suggested, along with the much more fundamental
         | reason that software has a very low barrier to entry. Hardware
         | is hard, but it's really the most impactful investment to make
         | in quantum tech at this early stage because of the spin-off
         | applications in sensing, timing and networking.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | Could you also be describing George Boole's wasted efforts in
         | algebra?
        
         | gremlinunderway wrote:
         | I think this post, like yours is simply forgetting that start-
         | up culture isn't some immutable meritocracy of free market
         | behaviour with these odd abberations of irrational behaviour.
         | The whole thing is built off irrational behaviour, because
         | becoming a "successful" startup is all about hunting VC
         | funding.
         | 
         | Look at Uber for instance. Aside from one blip in 2018, it has
         | never had a single year of profitability. Yet it receives year
         | after year of VC funding and investments because surely any day
         | now they have to turn a profit, right? All these people
         | couldn't be wrong...right? I mean this is the revolutionary
         | business that was a mArKeT DiSruPtOr and deregulated entire
         | vast swaths of industries to do it, so surely their success
         | will materialize "any day now" into profit. Afterall, its the
         | most free-market principles-based business right?? It overthrew
         | the tyrannical state-regulated taxi industry! It HAS to be more
         | efficient and better! Except it isn't.
         | 
         | Quantum computing isn't a "cargo cult" of VC startup business
         | models, its simply another VC startup business models like all
         | others hunting for sustainability through venture capital
         | funding.
        
         | ascar wrote:
         | > No practical quantum computer exists, and nobody has a
         | realistic concept for building one.
         | 
         | Can you expand on that? I'm not involved in the field, but
         | there certainly exist many low qbit machines with varying
         | technologies around the world that can already be used for
         | calculations. Yes, they're nowhere near big enough to be useful
         | yet, but qbit counts in the biggest machines are multiplying
         | every year similar to Moore's law, so that seems to be just a
         | matter of time.
        
           | sampo wrote:
           | > qbit counts in the biggest machines are multiplying every
           | year similar to Moore's law
           | 
           | 2001: Shor's algorithm was demonstrated by a group at IBM,
           | who factored 15 into 3 x 5
           | 
           | 2012: factorization of 21 was achieved
           | 
           | 2019: an attempt was made to factor the number 35, but the
           | algorithm failed because of accumulating errors
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm
        
           | fsh wrote:
           | Increasing the number of qubits doesn't help unless the gate
           | fidelities and coherence times also improve. Otherwise, the
           | system quickly becomes a very expensive random number
           | generator. In transmon qubit systems, I haven't seen much
           | progress in these metrics over the last couple of years. IBM
           | keep adding more qubits to their chips, but they don't seem
           | to be able to actually use them.
           | 
           | After almost thirty years of development, ion traps have now
           | reached a few ten qubits with reasonable fidelities. However,
           | this requires shuttling the ions between trapping zones which
           | is enormously slow (many milliseconds per gate). And scaling
           | this to hundreds of thousands of qubits is a completely open
           | question (none of the current techniques will work).
        
           | Simon_O_Rourke wrote:
           | > qbit counts in the biggest machines are multiplying every
           | year similar to Moore's law, so that seems to be just a
           | matter of time.
           | 
           | That's pretty much my take on it too, just because it's
           | pretty limited right now there appears to be healthy growth
           | in qbit counts which would suggest a more usable quantum
           | computer is mostly a matter of time and further research.
        
             | upofadown wrote:
             | It doesn't matter how many qubits you have if those qubits
             | are too noisy to do anything with. Noise is the ultimate
             | limit when trying to get a useful signal out of something.
             | Noise is how the universe stops us from knowing everything
             | about everything.
        
           | vouaobrasil wrote:
           | > Can you expand on that? I'm not involved in the field, but
           | there certainly exist many low qbit machines with varying
           | technologies around the world that can already be used for
           | calculations. Yes, they're nowhere near big enough to be
           | useful yet, but qbit counts in the biggest machines are
           | multiplying every year similar to Moore's law, so that seems
           | to be just a matter of time.
           | 
           | I'll believe it when I see it. Yes, machines exist, but so
           | far I have not seen one single convincing application that
           | makes it better than a classical computer. Not saying it
           | can't be done, but for all the hype around quantum computers,
           | so far the results are dismal. (And I used to work in a
           | relevant field.)
        
           | fastneutron wrote:
           | The big "if" in quantum computing is in our ability to
           | engineer error correction and fault tolerance. Implementing
           | fault tolerance requires a physical qubit overhead of
           | 10-10,000 qubits per logical qubit, depending on the
           | technology, base error rate and whose analysis you look at.
           | 
           | It's not entirely accurate to say nobody knows how to do
           | this. The theory of quantum error-correction has been
           | rigorously developed since the 1990s, and experimental
           | implementations have shown that improved fidelity is possible
           | with known error-correction schemes. I think we'll know
           | definitively within the next 3-5 years how hard it will be to
           | engineer fault tolerance, and workable solutions will emerge
           | from those findings.
        
       | lpolovets wrote:
       | I love this speech every time that I read it. There are a ton of
       | examples of cargo cult thinking in the startup ecosystem. I wrote
       | a post about this a few years back:
       | https://www.codingvc.com/p/startup-cargo-cults-what-they-are...
       | 
       | A few examples that come to mind:
       | 
       | * because lots of famous VCs made contrarian bets, new VCs try to
       | be contrarian (even when a consensus point of view is clearly
       | correct).
       | 
       | * almost every startup I know is looking for 10x engineers, even
       | though most startups don't need 10x engineers. We've just all
       | been conditioned to believe that 10x engineers are required to
       | build a great company.
       | 
       | * generalizing the 10x example, young startups copy the traits of
       | FAANG companies or famously successful startups, even if those
       | traits are harmful for early stage companies.
       | 
       | Feynman: "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself
       | --and you are the easiest person to fool."
       | 
       | Also, here's a text version of the OP that's easier to read on
       | mobile: https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Apple comes close to having started a cargo cult.
         | 
         | People think that if they keep saying nice things about Apple,
         | they will not one day lock them down hard.
        
           | Drakim wrote:
           | It's more complicated than that, a lot of the people who says
           | that Apple keeps things secure and tight compared to
           | Android's wild west will themselves have a jail-broken
           | iPhone.
           | 
           | The iPhone was hot when it came out, and was a lot of
           | people's first taste of the smartphone, and it's very easy to
           | fall into tribalism. You and I aren't immune to it, there are
           | hundreds of things we are irrational about in our lives.
           | Arguments in favor of your chosen tribe are proxy arguments
           | for preserving your own value, identity, and dignity.
        
             | logdap wrote:
             | [dead]
        
           | EarthLaunch wrote:
           | People aren't saying nice things about Apple to appease Apple
           | from locking things down.
           | 
           | People who rebelliously use non-Apple products are helping to
           | keep the alternatives alive. It's a tradeoff of now vs
           | future. That's the real tradeoff, it's not cults.
           | 
           | (edits: HN vs who?)
        
         | marginalia_nu wrote:
         | Tech hiring practices is also a fantastic example.
         | 
         | There was a time when companies like Google were looking for
         | very talented CS people because they actually needed people
         | with broad skills because in the case of G they were building a
         | search engine and there's almost no area of computer science
         | that isn't involved in such a project. They actually needed
         | people with strong CS skills.
         | 
         | Twenty years later we have positions where hires are selected
         | for their ability to reverse a red-black tree on a whiteboard,
         | where the position will mostly be about gluing together CRUD
         | apps with YAML.
        
           | josephg wrote:
           | > Twenty years later we have positions where hires are
           | selected for their ability to reverse a red-black tree on a
           | whiteboard, where the position will mostly be about gluing
           | together CRUD apps with YAML.
           | 
           | A few years ago I worked as an interviewer for a large
           | software engineering recruiting company. We did quantitative
           | scoring on a lot of parts of our standardized interview. We
           | had sections in our interview on CS knowledge, programming,
           | debugging and whiteboard style problems. Based on the data,
           | we asked: Could we eliminate any part of the assessment?
           | Could we throw out the CS knowledge part without losing
           | accuracy about the overall hireability of the candidate?
           | 
           | Based on the data, the answer was no. The scores were all
           | positively correlated - so CS knowledge implied you were
           | better at programming and vice versa. But we still got extra
           | signal by assessing candidates on their CS knowledge. Turns
           | out even if you aren't amazing at programming, having
           | excellent CS knowledge will still make you desirable to a lot
           | of companies.
           | 
           | (The weakness of this study is we didn't follow up with
           | people. We only knew if our candidates got hired, not how
           | well they did after they were in the door, as employees. So
           | we might have just been mirroring the same biases the
           | companies themselves have in their hiring processes.)
        
             | esaym wrote:
             | > We only knew if our candidates got hired, not how well
             | they did after they were in the door, as employees.
             | 
             | Just lol
        
             | dimal wrote:
             | > The weakness of this study is we didn't follow up with
             | people. We only knew if our candidates got hired, not how
             | well they did after they were in the door, as employees
             | 
             | I'm sorry, but then your study doesn't show anything
             | useful. Interviews are supposed to determine whether
             | someone is going to be a good employee, not whether they
             | are "desirable to a lot of companies." So yeah, all you
             | were doing was mirroring the bias of those companies'
             | processes. As a recruiting company, that can be good
             | business, because you're giving the customers what they
             | want. But it's not effective hiring practice for the
             | customer.
             | 
             | Furthermore, you did not follow up on the people that were
             | weeded out to see if they would have been good employees.
             | Current hiring practices weed out a lot of people that
             | could have provided a lot of value, but they weren't able
             | to perform the prescribed ritual on cue, you didn't have a
             | chance to evaluate whether that was a good decision or not.
        
             | LudwigNagasena wrote:
             | > The weakness of this study is we didn't follow up with
             | people. We only knew if our candidates got hired, not how
             | well they did after they were in the door, as employees.
             | 
             | That's not just a weakness, that invalidates the whole
             | study.
        
             | gremlinunderway wrote:
             | >(The weakness of this study is we didn't follow up with
             | people. We only knew if our candidates got hired, not how
             | well they did after they were in the door, as employees. So
             | we might have just been mirroring the same biases the
             | companies themselves have in their hiring processes.)
             | 
             | Kudos for the self-awareness but like others have pointed
             | out, cmon.
             | 
             | This obsession with quantitative scoring for tests is a
             | great example of a cargo cult science because you are doing
             | all of these intricate little rituals that amount to
             | nothing because you're simply measuring latent social
             | phenomenon of hiring like-minded people. It's just
             | statistically-laundered-bias.
        
             | marginalia_nu wrote:
             | > (The weakness of this study is we didn't follow up with
             | people. We only knew if our candidates got hired, not how
             | well they did after they were in the door, as employees. So
             | we might have just been mirroring the same biases the
             | companies themselves have in their hiring processes.)
             | 
             | This is some weakness. Surely this is the outcome that's
             | interesting.
             | 
             | I also suspect there's likely a correlation between how
             | hard someone is trying to get hired and the freshness of
             | their CS skills.
             | 
             | Chances are a motivated candidate will have been brushing
             | up on CS because it's such a trope to be grilled on those
             | types of questions; that same candidate likely prepared for
             | other interview questions as well and I would indeed expect
             | that to increase the odds of getting hired.
             | 
             | Since nobody walks around with perfect recall of the types
             | of algorithms that crop up in the classic tech interview,
             | it's fairly safe to assume the CS part of the interview is
             | a direct measure of how much preparation the interviewee
             | has done.
        
               | josephg wrote:
               | > Since nobody walks around with perfect recall of the
               | types of algorithms that crop up in the classic tech
               | interview, it's fairly safe to assume ...
               | 
               | I'd love to have data on that.
               | 
               | I know its really common for engineers to never touch
               | this stuff in their day to day work. Most product teams
               | don't need any of this knowledge at all. So asking about
               | it in an interview is a massive waste of time.
               | 
               | But personally, I've used a lot of these algorithms while
               | working on collaborative editing for the last few years.
               | For diamond-types, I ended up writing my own b-tree and
               | skip list implementations, and I make heavy use of binary
               | search, BFS, DFS and priority queues. I've used priority
               | queues in plenty of projects - like, years ago I made a
               | library to mock out timers in nodejs for our test suite
               | so we didn't have to wait for real timeouts to trigger in
               | our test suite.
               | 
               | But I've got no idea what percentage of working engineers
               | use any of this. 5%? 1%? 0.01%? On the surface, it seems
               | nowhere near useful enough to justify how often these
               | questions show up in interviews.
        
               | marginalia_nu wrote:
               | Well part of the reason I'm skeptical of how who would
               | actually be able to pass these interviews without
               | cramming for them based on the fact that I too have used
               | a fair number of the algorithms (because as mentioned,
               | internet search is a fractal of challenging CS problems)
               | and would almost definitely not pass such an interview.
               | 
               | Just because I've implemented a binary search a few
               | times, and a b-tree, and a skip list, and various sorting
               | and intersection algorithms doesn't mean I can
               | reconstruct them on a whiteboard from memory. What it
               | amounts to is that I have an upper quartile understanding
               | of the underlying idea and the general quirks (among
               | practicing programmers), but not much more than that.
        
             | verve_rat wrote:
             | Wait, so the conclusion the study came to was... people
             | that do well in the interview process tend to get hired?
             | 
             | In my experience interview processes act like a series of
             | stage gates, you have to pass each and every one to get
             | hired. It seems trivial to say the doing well in each
             | activity is predictive of success when you need to do well
             | in everything to be successful.
             | 
             | I don't mean to be mean, but that study sounds like a giant
             | missed opportunity to do something useful. Knowing what
             | interview activities are actually predictive of being good
             | in a job is the holy grail.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | bravura wrote:
               | Completely missed opportunity, particularly since GP has
               | been breathlessly recounting this story to others since
               | it happened, and probably his old colleagues are too.
        
               | josephg wrote:
               | GP here. I completely agree. Looking back, I wish I
               | pushed harder to follow up and get the last piece of that
               | data. It was a massive missed opportunity.
        
           | shaan7 wrote:
           | On a lighter note, people who can write YAML are very
           | skilled, in my eyes. I'm yet to encounter a situation where I
           | edited YAML and it worked on the first go -_-
        
             | marginalia_nu wrote:
             | Sure it's a skill, but it's a different skill. It's like
             | hiring a chef on their ability to sharpen a cooking knife.
        
           | bonoboTP wrote:
           | Those "reverse this linked list" interviews are essentially
           | disgused IQ tests, which wouldn't otherwise be allowed in the
           | US, not without a lot of legal risk at least.
           | 
           | Their point isn't to test a specific practical skill.
        
       | trinsic2 wrote:
       | > In the past, I've been effusive of my praise of CNET, a news
       | outlet that (along with Wired) pioneered digital journalism,
       | 
       | I'm sorry, I can't take anyone that thinks CNET and Wired is a
       | bastion of digital journalism seriously.
       | 
       | It's well known that these sites focus on 80% profit and 20%
       | Journalism. It's been that way from the beginning.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | obscurette wrote:
       | Probably even more relevant in HN -
       | https://stevemcconnell.com/articles/cargo-cult-software-engi...
        
         | hliyan wrote:
         | I wrote something similar in 2021: https://medium.com/the-
         | engineering-manager-guide/cargo-cult-...
        
       | inquirerGeneral wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | bonoboTP wrote:
       | I'm only really familiar with machine learning and computer
       | vision papers and many of the mentioned aspects, especially Mr.
       | Young's rat running experiments have their analogs here.
       | 
       | There is a ton of accumulated "dark knowledge" locked up in
       | research groups, all the tricks (like putting the rat corridor on
       | sand, in that example) but they are not really publishable. To
       | publish, you need a clear _story_ , literally that's the word we
       | use when drafting papers. What's your story? A bunch of boring
       | tricks rarely make a good story. And when people do publish such
       | things, they have to also insert some other conceptual "novelty"
       | contribution (typically a non intuitive tweak of the model
       | architecture) to the paper that makes a +0.5% improvement on some
       | benchmark, just to be able to talk about the real practical but
       | ugly things that really make the whole thing work.
       | 
       | Not to mention the replications that Feynman mentions, ie that
       | before you test your tweaked new model, you have to also perform
       | the baseline yourself, you can't just take it as given in another
       | person's paper. This is rarely done in ML, and not just for
       | resource scarcity reasons. Another reason is that it's damn hard.
       | ML systems are very very complex and essentially impossible to
       | exactly reproduce from a paper description. It would even be hard
       | for the same team to do it, if we deleted their codebase and
       | checkpoints and asked them to redo it.
       | 
       | "But open source!" you say. Sure, except that large systems often
       | evolve and the released code is often a refactored version of a
       | haphazard ducktaped spaghetti monster codebase that was actually
       | used, where they manually edited code files between runs, or
       | hard-coded things, discovered some Bug midway and fixed it and
       | compensated for it best they could etc.
       | 
       | These projects must be done in a few months so youre ready before
       | the next conference cycle happens where someone does something
       | related and now you need to rework your story and contribution
       | claim, or at least you now also have to compare and compete with
       | them.
       | 
       | But let's say you took your time and now redid the experiment of
       | the other prior work, but it doesn't agree with your numbers
       | totally. You can email them or open a github issue. They answer
       | perhaps in a week, and say they don't know exactly the reason, or
       | that it was a different code version they actually used but they
       | can't release that one as it's not approved by corporate (from
       | real experience). Of course with your questions you are also
       | terrifying them and your queries may feel to them like threats of
       | pending potential reputation destruction. So they will be very
       | defensive, which will make you suspicious. But they are just some
       | other grad student like you and probably didn't mean any ill.
       | 
       | I've seen a PhD student on Twitter asking what he should do after
       | discovering an anomaly in an Arxiv paper before the camera ready
       | deadline (the finalized version of an article). Should he
       | publicly "out" them if they fail to incorporate his findings. Of
       | course it is absurd and the camera ready deadline cannot
       | introduce significant new contributions or new discoveries, as
       | that would require new peer review. But he was convinced that
       | he's a noble defender of scientific integrity while doing this.
       | I'm just mentioning this because some junior people may read
       | these Feynman pieces and think they should go on a crusade based
       | on often quite scarce information.
       | 
       | But again, think of the sheer volume of works coming out every
       | week. It's unmanageable. If you stopped to interact with every
       | single prior work of your comparison table in such detail you'd
       | take years to write one paper. A PhD student usually has to
       | publish 3 top papers in about 4 years or so. And some will
       | definitely get rejected. The reality is that high-end labs have
       | become paper factories. They have a process, just like pop songs
       | are formulaic. They get a smart person as an intern for example
       | and pump out a paper in 5 months. Exactly how much of this "you
       | are the easiest person to fool" deep self-reflection fits into
       | such a thing?
       | 
       | And yet.
       | 
       | And yet the cumulative effect is undeniable progress. The
       | thousands of low quality papers are simply ignored. They
       | contribute to someone getting their PhD, and that's their true
       | function. But then there is a small set of works that really are
       | excellent. It's just that the publicly available papertrail in
       | the literature isn't really necessarily what has driven it. The
       | papers are more like a shadow projection of the real world work
       | behind the scenes, filtered to please novelty-hungry impatient
       | reviewers and paper-count-rewarding committees. But of course the
       | sheer hardware growth is a big part of the overall success, but
       | the hardware design was informed by the research, and without the
       | model improvements, you couldn't just hardware-scale the state of
       | the art of 1995 to modern computes and expect strong results.
       | 
       | So for sure the spirit that Feynman espouses here still lives on,
       | but it's alive despite all the incentives, and most of what
       | appears as academic science is not really about contributing some
       | truly usable and convincing knowledge, but a demonstration of the
       | job skills of people towards various personal evaluations, like
       | granting a degree, hiring or promotion.
       | 
       | Most people who start with this starry eyed idealism quickly get
       | it stamped out by the system. The important thing is to yield a
       | productive synthesis instead of a resignatory pessimism. Do your
       | best given the circumstances, but also read the room and don't
       | run with your head into the wall.
       | 
       | The fabulous thing is though, that things adapt. The less these
       | hurried processes live up to the ideal, the more the reputation
       | of the label "science" gets eroded. Many people already react
       | with an eye roll when they hear what "experts" and "The Science"
       | have to say. The trust is finite and can run out.
       | 
       | A few major discoveries in physics and medicine led to a giant
       | reserve of public trust over the last century, but it isn't
       | infinite. Immediately after the moon landing, in the space age,
       | science and scifi captivated the minds of everyone and that was
       | probably the peak of it, including figures like Sagan (or indeed
       | Feynman). Then computing brought a new wave of tech but it, and
       | even AI is less of a natural science, and many popular claims
       | turn out to be overblown.
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | Anyway, we have no idea what exactly made the 100 years between,
       | say, 1870 and 1970 so scientifically productive. Because that's
       | the period that lends the weight to the label "science" in the
       | public and hence for politicians. It certainly wasn't the current
       | academic system of journals and conferences and 8-page papers and
       | rushed peer review, h-indexes and byzantine grant application
       | forms.
       | 
       | And whenever something has prestige, people flock to it and want
       | to also bask in it. And it gets inevitably diluted. But the
       | prestige will move on and there will be some other thing next.
       | Something we will call something else than "science".
        
         | gwern wrote:
         | More on the rat story: https://gwern.net/maze
        
       | rossdavidh wrote:
       | One point rarely mentioned in regards to Cargo Cultism, is that
       | the fundamental error of the cargo cultists wasn't that they
       | didn't understand what made the planes land. The fundamental
       | error was that they kept doing it, even though it wasn't working.
       | We don't know how a lot of our most effective pharmaceuticals
       | work, but we at least know to stop using them if (in a rigorous
       | test) they don't work (although people with $$ in their eyes
       | sometimes try to get us to do it anyway).
       | 
       | Now, the magnitude of the error would depend on how long the
       | cargo cultists kept doing this, even though the planes didn't
       | return, and I have never heard how long that was. If they tried
       | this for a month or two, it's not that bad an error, really; it
       | was worth a try, based on what they knew. If they did this for
       | decades, that would be a serious error.
        
         | gremlinunderway wrote:
         | Except the cargo cult religions weren't trying to get cargo to
         | return in any meaningful sense. It was a religious ritual like
         | anyother. If we were watching Christian practices from the
         | outside and not knowing any of the nuances of their beliefs we
         | would probably interpret that "they're trying to get this guy
         | named Jesus to return by eating crackers and wine".
         | 
         | Feynman's speech is interesting and all but like so many
         | similar gifted scientists who then go on to explore into other
         | domains, they stumble into a field and ignore whole bodies of
         | research into the philosophy and sociology of how science is
         | produced.
         | 
         | Thomas Kuhn had already established some solid insight into the
         | social and organizational aspects of "scientific revolution",
         | and showed that despite most people's ardent belief that
         | science is somehow immune to it, there is a significant amount
         | of social hierarchies and ritualistic beliefs that dictate what
         | is considered "acceptable" science.
         | 
         | Believing in science as this perfect immutable meritocracy is
         | pretty much its own ritualistic cult, as if you can just
         | pretend away human bias and insular beliefs by thinking really-
         | really hard.
        
         | Sharlin wrote:
         | > If they did this for decades, that would be a serious error.
         | 
         | Assuming they didn't get other benefits from the rituals,
         | namely the same ones people get from more mainstream religions
         | like social cohesion and a sense of purpose and a belief in
         | some greater power.
        
         | themodelplumber wrote:
         | > kept doing it, even though it wasn't working
         | 
         | It was working though. It was maintaining a new state of social
         | order, which is a mandate for sustainable power transfer in
         | society.
        
       | uwagar wrote:
       | it could be the tribals were critiquing how american military
       | conducts itself in tropical lands.
        
       | gadders wrote:
       | I saw some archive footage of him speaking recently and I loved
       | that he kept his blue collar (to my British ears) Brooklyn
       | accent.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | It is kind of funny to me. I'm not sure he could help it
         | though, ha ha.
        
       | fnord77 wrote:
       | crypto seems like a massive cargo cult
        
         | bagacrap wrote:
         | I would have just called it a regular cult ("give me all your
         | money and you'll receive great riches in return").
         | 
         | It's true that adherents to crypto have a faulty understanding
         | of traditional finance just as the islanders have a faulty
         | understanding of airplanes and canned food. But rather than
         | painstakingly recreating the minute details of traditional
         | finance in hopes of capturing the same success, crypto cults go
         | out of their way to _avoid_ recreating those details or
         | understanding why they 're necessary, if burdensome.
        
       | sfpotter wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | marginalia_nu wrote:
         | To be fair it's also Feynman. He's always entertaining.
        
         | tomcam wrote:
         | Most people overestimate their intelligence, HNers or not.
         | There's even a name for it. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar
         | ticles/PMC8883889/#:~:tex....
        
       | js2 wrote:
       | HTML version which I find easier to read:
       | 
       | http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm
        
       | bschne wrote:
       | I read this extension of the concept a while back that dives a
       | bit more into what's actually missing in the "cargo cult"
       | approach, and how to transition to actual productivity --
       | https://metarationality.com/upgrade-your-cargo-cult#upgradin...
        
       | NoZebra120vClip wrote:
       | James Knochel, 6/18/2022:
       | 
       | "20th Century psychiatrists wrote manuals and procedures for the
       | diagnosis of 'mental disorders'. They order lab tests and
       | undertake careful study of their patients' symptoms, and they
       | diagnose the conditions listed in their manuals. They seek
       | regulatory approval of prescriptions to treat the diagnoses. They
       | stopped doing psycho-surgery by mid-century, but still
       | electrocute their patients' brains when they think the patient
       | will benefit.
       | 
       | They have their own special hospitals, where troubled patients
       | are sent to be stabilized on palliative prescription drugs. The
       | psych wards have little areas for staff to sit in. The staff wear
       | scrubs and badges, keep medical records, and some prescribe
       | prescriptions--[s]he's the doctor--and they wait for their
       | patients to get better.
       | 
       | They're doing everything right. The form is perfect. It looks
       | exactly the way it looks in the other medical specialties. But it
       | doesn't work. No patient recovers as a result of the allopathic
       | drugs provided. Some patients get better anyways--perhaps because
       | they're fed, perhaps because they're kept sober--compounding the
       | profession's confusion."
       | 
       | It's true. People get better in psychiatric incarceration,
       | because there is a predictable, regular daily schedule. There are
       | meals on schedule. There are groups and stuff. You see the same
       | people all the time. You're off TV and you're off the computer,
       | so you need to face reality. You're relieved of burdens such as
       | bill paying, cooking, cleaning, and running your household. You
       | might color by the numbers or work a puzzle, but you've got
       | reality, and it's stripped down and reduced to its essential
       | components. You tend to get better and saner in this environment,
       | if that's your baseline and that's where you tend to go. If your
       | baseline is insanity, then all this regularity may not help.
        
         | Daub wrote:
         | > the form [of their science] is perfect.
         | 
         | The reason the British Houses of Parliament feature so many
         | exterior and interior chimneys was to funnel so-called 'bad
         | air' of the Thames away from the people who work inside the
         | building. This was based on the newly acquired knowledge that
         | some diseases are passed on via microbes. They wrongly assumed
         | that most malicious microbes were airborne and that bad smells
         | were an indication of their presence.
         | 
         | The history of science is littered with such examples of 'good
         | science/wrong conclusion'. We would be foolish to assume that
         | this is not as true today as 100 years ago.
        
           | hliyan wrote:
           | If I remember correctly, _malaria_ literally means  "bad
           | air".
        
             | Sharlin wrote:
             | Yeah, cf. Latin _malus_ "unpleasant", "bad", "evil", "ill"
             | and _aer_ "air".
        
           | nemo44x wrote:
           | I wonder if it had to do with tuberculosis, which is
           | airborne? Tenements were designed with that in mind and in
           | the USA houses built in the early 20th century often feature
           | "sleeper porches". Outside areas to sleep to get fresh air.
           | This too was in part to avoid TB.
        
             | Daub wrote:
             | Maybe. Certainly TB was a major killer at that time:
             | 
             | https://nonprofitupdate.info/2010/10/21/10-leading-causes-
             | of...
             | 
             | But the idea of 'bad air' (miasmic theory)' though Informed
             | by microbe theory, had its roots in Hippocratic thinking
             | which was derived from the observation that swampy areas
             | were generally unhealthy to live. This was attributed to
             | their bad smell and not the preponderance of mosquitoes
             | (malaria).
             | 
             | Fyi... The same miasmic theory gave rise to toilets that
             | were designed to flush away bad smalls with water.
        
           | raincom wrote:
           | Miasma theory ruled from 4 BC until 1800s. Miasmata (airborne
           | vapors, noxious, polluted air) caused most diseases. This
           | encouraged cleanliness. Germ theory of disease replaced it.
           | 
           | "Malaria was prevalent in the Roman Empire, and the Roman
           | scholars associated the disease with the marshy or swampy
           | lands where the disease was particularly rampant.[13][14] It
           | was from those Romans the name "malaria" originated. They
           | called it malaria (literally meaning "bad air") as they
           | believed that the disease was a kind of miasma that was
           | spread in the air, as originally conceived by Ancient Greeks.
           | Since then, it was a medical consensus for centuries that
           | malaria was spread due to miasma, the bad air." [1]
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito-malaria_theory
        
         | tcj_phx wrote:
         | Thanks for the quote. This was part of an essay, _Cargo Cult
         | Psychiatry_ , posted at the _Mad in America Foundation 's_
         | website: https://www.madinamerica.com/2022/06/cargo-cult-
         | psychiatry/
         | 
         | I found Robert Whitaker's books invaluable for helping me
         | understanding the mental health industry's mindset. _Mad in
         | America_ covered how the Quakers got much better results with
         | their Asylums (safe place with 4 meals a day  & activities)
         | than modern techniques of lobotomy, ECT'ers and palliative
         | prescriptions. _Anatomy of an Epidemic_ makes the case that
         | palliative psychiatric prescriptions take an episodic condition
         | and make it chronic. _Psychiatry Under the Influence_
         | chronicles how psychiatry got captured by the prescription drug
         | cartel. Highly recommended.
         | 
         | The good news from the mental health world is that Chris
         | Palmer, M.D. published _Brain Energy_ [0] last year. I haven 't
         | read more than excerpts from google books [1]. My understanding
         | is Dr. Palmer was a conventional palliative psychiatrist, then
         | he had a patient whose schizophrenia improved on a ketogenic
         | diet. The patient was able to discontinue antipsychotics: _Dr.
         | Palmer 's mind was blown_. Then he discovered the 70+ years of
         | research establishing that mental health conditions are
         | metabolic problems, and wrote a book.                 Perhaps
         | the most bold and disruptive aspect of        Brain Energy is
         | understanding precisely how and        why medications that
         | harm metabolism might        reduce mental health symptoms.
         | The long-term consequences are of great concern        and
         | require the urgent attention of the psychiatric
         | community.
         | 
         | -Chris Palmer, MD -
         | https://twitter.com/ChrisPalmerMD/status/1687850270602981376
         | 
         | Dr. Palmer recommends a ketogenic diet. I think most of the
         | benefit of 'keto' stems from avoiding fortified flour:
         | https://twitter.com/JamesKnochel/status/1595562197412851712
         | 
         | A lot of people are harmed by folic acid, and the iron and lack
         | of fiber in fortified white flour is harmful for almost
         | everyone, in that they disrupt the microbiome. Most people get
         | adequate iron, and don't actually need iron filings ("reduced
         | iron"); the fiber in whole wheat fiber feeds bacteria that make
         | short-chain saturated fatty acids [2].
         | 
         | [0] https://brainenergy.com/
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://books.google.com/books?id=FoxlEAAAQBAJ&pg=PT233&dq=B...
         | 
         | [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4756104/
         | 
         | (edited to add [2] and some speculations on the mechanisms of
         | harm of fortified white flour)
        
           | tcj_phx wrote:
           | Submitted _Cargo Cult Psychiatry (2022):_
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37110874
        
       | henrydark wrote:
       | I hope this isn't received too badly on HN, but Feynman was way
       | too smug sometimes. This speech is essentially a philosophy of
       | science piece, at the intellectual stage of at least one hundred
       | years prior, and probably more like three hundred.
       | 
       | It's too bad that he so diminished philosophy of science, and at
       | the same time put so much undeveloped thought and prose into it.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | I agree Feynman was often smug. It's annoying but I forgive him
         | because I too am smug from time to time. Perhaps he was aware
         | of it within himself as well.
        
         | mandmandam wrote:
         | I'll bite.
         | 
         | > way too smug sometimes
         | 
         | Immediately after:
         | 
         | > This speech is essentially a philosophy of science piece, at
         | the intellectual stage of at least one hundred years prior, and
         | probably more like three hundred.
         | 
         | Bruh.
         | 
         | Apart from the hypocrisy there, the fact is Feynman _did_
         | science. He did more science than Popper, Kuhn, and Hume put
         | together. He understood it on a level deeper than  >99% of
         | other scientists, and >99.9% of philosophers.
         | 
         | That he did so with a "three hundred year" out of date view
         | doesn't really reflect well on PoS's utility for actual
         | scientists.
         | 
         | Let people who are that capable and accomplished have a blind
         | spot once in a while. What is this trend of cutting legend's
         | ankles gonna accomplish for anybody.
        
           | bonoboTP wrote:
           | It's a weird beef between science and philosophy. It doesn't
           | really make all that much sense. Philosophers arent on one
           | team versus the scientists. If you read any philosopher,
           | they'll vehemently contradict other (prior or contemporary)
           | philosophers, passionately arguing for their view of things.
           | 
           | Its a sort of elitism and inferiority complex.
           | 
           | The fact that Feynman was working through some "naive"
           | positivist worldview and yet achieved such success just rubs
           | it in more that a talented scientist needs philosophers about
           | as much as a bird needs ornithologists to know how to build
           | its nest.
           | 
           | When talent, curiosity and integrity come together in this
           | way, it doesn't need some philosophers musings and rulebooks
           | to do great.
        
             | mistermann wrote:
             | > The fact that Feynman was working through some "naive"
             | positivist worldview and yet achieved such success just
             | rubs it in more that a talented scientist needs
             | philosophers about as much as a bird needs ornithologists
             | to know how to build its nest.
             | 
             | How's that global warming thing coming along?
             | 
             | Let me guess: it isn't relevant?
        
               | bonoboTP wrote:
               | Your snark is unwarranted and your post is vague. State
               | your point clearly. I don't know how Feynman (and his
               | beef with the philosophy of science) is connected to
               | global warming "coming along" or not.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | > way too smug sometimes
         | 
         | Feynman was lucky enough to be a physicist in an era when there
         | was much new, experimentally testable physics. Experimentalists
         | discovered new phenomena. Theorists could propose theories,
         | which were then confirmed or rejected quickly. Most results
         | were clear, not near the noise threshold. The field progressed
         | rapidly. Physics was finding, and had found, a set of concise
         | rules that the universe consistently obeyed. Plus, they won the
         | war. Physicists of that era could afford to be smug.
         | 
         | Today, physicists are still banging their head against the wall
         | on dark matter and string theory. Both ideas are not directly
         | testable. Trying to find the foundations is not going well.
        
       | hellothere1337 wrote:
       | Cargo culting is one of those mental models that appears
       | everywhere once you learn about it. Similar to kayfabe in
       | wrestling and politics. 99.9% of humanity basically is winging it
       | daily (by copying the shallowest parts of whatever
       | philosophy/ideology they espouse) pretending they know everything
       | while the 0.01% is honest with themselves and thus are free to
       | question and doubt their own ideas in order to improve them. This
       | 0.1% is mostly invisible despite pushing humanity forward
        
         | karmakurtisaani wrote:
         | Wait, did you just wing those percentages?
        
           | tomcam wrote:
           | 76.7% of Hacker News readers believe so
        
         | josephg wrote:
         | I assume you place yourself in that 0.1%? Or was it 0.01%?
         | 
         | Personally, I think we're all winging it almost every moment of
         | our lives. Relative to domain experts, I'm bad at almost
         | everything I do. (Cooking, driving, talking, writing, planning,
         | etc). I'm only really good at maybe 2 or 3 things.
         | 
         | I think we're all like this. And its fundamentally ok. Its how
         | human brains are wired.
         | 
         | Sometimes I imagine dividing all my thoughts between things
         | I've personally invented and things I've heard from others.
         | Whats the ratio? I think at least 95% of my thoughts come from
         | other people. Maybe 99%. Maybe more.
        
           | hellothere1337 wrote:
           | Nah I'm pretty stupid and follow the herd, its the reason for
           | my success too!
        
           | bagacrap wrote:
           | How could you even tell if you've personally invented
           | something? You don't know what caused a thought to pop into
           | your head. Heck I often forget things I've said, so I clearly
           | forget things I've heard. I could be fully convinced an idea
           | was my own and still be dead wrong.
           | 
           | Luckily you can build on the ideas of others without being a
           | cargo cultist. Simply verify the sturdiness of the foundation
           | before you go adding an extra wing to the house.
        
         | drewcoo wrote:
         | 23?
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23_enigma
        
       | nntwozz wrote:
       | In the South Seas there is a Cargo Cult of people. During the war
       | they saw airplanes land with lots of good materials, and they
       | want the same thing to happen now. So they've arranged to make
       | things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways,
       | to make a wooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces
       | on his head like headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like
       | antennas--he's the controller--and they wait for the airplanes to
       | land. They're doing everything right. The form is perfect. It
       | looks exactly the way it looked before. But it doesn't work. No
       | airplanes land. So I call these things Cargo Cult Science,
       | because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of
       | scientific investigation, but they're missing something
       | essential, because the planes don't land.
        
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