[HN Gopher] GPT-4 can't reason
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       GPT-4 can't reason
        
       Author : BruceEel
       Score  : 182 points
       Date   : 2023-08-08 15:15 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.preprints.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.preprints.org)
        
       | dingosity wrote:
       | Certainly the statement "ChatGPT-4 Can't Reason" isn't a great
       | surprise to anyone.
        
       | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
       | This is a long paper (50 pages!) by a fellow Greek and I want to
       | take my time and give it the attention it seems to deserve.
       | However, I have to say I'm not sure if such work is really well,
       | necessary.
       | 
       | Here's the thing. The paper, like others, is contributing to the
       | literature around the hypothesis that LLMs can reason. There have
       | been articles both supporting and rejecting the hypothesis, and
       | this one claims it's false.
       | 
       | But, in science, we don't start with a hypothesis. We start with
       | some observations, and then we make up a hypothesis to try and
       | explain the observations. Then we try to reject our hypothesis
       | with more observations. What are the observations that led to the
       | hypothesis that LLMs can reason?
       | 
       | It's one observation really: that LLMs can geneate text that
       | looks like the result of reasoning. There exists a much simpler
       | explanation of this observation, than the hypothesis that LLMs
       | can reason. Namely, LLMs are trained to generate text similar to
       | text generated by humans, who (we assume) can reason. If an LLM
       | is good at that job, then obviously at some point it will
       | generate text that looks like the result of reasoning. The
       | ability to reason is not necessary.
       | 
       | If we have this simpler explanation, there's no reason to reach
       | for the more complex one, that needs more assumptions.
       | 
       | And remember kids: if you multiply entities beyond necessity, out
       | comes the Macco Man and shaves your head with his R A Z O O O O O
       | R R!!!
       | 
       | So don't do that. Assume the simplest explanation until such time
       | as it is untenable.
        
       | ninjaa wrote:
       | Code interpreter likely solves most of these: https://aditya-
       | advani.medium.com/mitigate-gpt-4-hallucinatio...
       | 
       | I argue that with Code Interpreter, GPT-4 can indeed reason in
       | lots of cases, although it's more brittle and expensive than it
       | seems to be on the very polished surface level. Working on
       | proving this in lots of cases.
        
       | more_corn wrote:
       | A better title might be "I have made no attempt to learn how this
       | tool works or how to use it, and therefore cannot get it to work"
       | 
       | Many papers about LLM-AI not working follow the same pattern.
       | 
       | It is actually useful to know that people will misuse these tools
       | and get bad results. The counterpoint is that people using these
       | tools thoughtfully and expertly will outperform inexpert or non
       | users. AI will be a technological assist and people who aren't
       | able to figure it out won't benefit from it.
       | 
       | I suppose it might sound simplistic and trite framed in this way.
        
       | Smaug123 wrote:
       | Strong downvote, if that were possible.
       | 
       | Someone's already quoted the heart rate one where it correctly
       | pointed out that it's possible to die and be resuscitated.
       | 
       | The first one I tried to reproduce myself was verbatim the one
       | immediately before that one in the paper, "Find a model in which
       | P(x) implies Q(x), Q(a) does not hold, and P(a) holds.", and it
       | got that correct too: it tried to give a positive answer, but
       | ended up correctly saying "It seems that the given conditions are
       | contradictory, and no model can satisfy all three conditions
       | simultaneously.". With a small chain-of-thought adjustment it
       | easily produces a proof that the setup is contradictory (https://
       | chat.openai.com/share/d2b4b63e-d585-413d-82c9-19595d...).
       | 
       | I'm not going to go through any of the other ones, but it's clear
       | that the authors are simply wrong (or at least, if they are
       | correct, their reasoning is not evidence of that fact).
       | 
       | ----
       | 
       | OK, I am going to go through some of the other ones.
       | 
       | 1. Multiplication of four-digit numbers: tick, with chain-of-
       | thought.
       | https://chat.openai.com/share/baa9c362-22fd-4569-b30f-8c9d83...
       | 
       | 2. Counting negations: tick, with chain-of-thought.
       | https://chat.openai.com/share/e5f6f928-0bf3-4e60-8a93-014e16...
       | 
       | 3. Counting repeated greetings: tick, got this correct verbatim.
       | https://chat.openai.com/share/a92d5d52-c555-45b9-b91f-0f0042...
       | 
       | 4. Medical heart rate one: I believe ChatGPT was correct and the
       | author of the paper was wrong here.
       | 
       | 5. Elementary logic: this is what my first reproduction was, and
       | it got it correct when verbatim and gave a proof with chain-of-
       | thought.
       | https://chat.openai.com/share/d2b4b63e-d585-413d-82c9-19595d...
       | 
       | 6. Quantifiers. I agree that ChatGPT doesn't seem to understand
       | quantifiers and I know no obvious way to rephrase to elicit that
       | knowledge without begging the question
       | (https://chat.openai.com/share/16a046fd-
       | dd68-4c35-bdba-64b63c...). By the way, this mistake is pretty
       | common in humans.
       | 
       | 7. Quantifiers, part 2: in my reproduction it parsed the question
       | wrongly so I assume it was doomed from the start (https://chat.op
       | enai.com/share/764bf14a-a02c-4871-9c22-0be840...). Again, I'm
       | perfectly happy to believe it simply can't do this; many humans
       | can't do this either.
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | I'll stop here, because we've hit a problem of reasoning about
       | graph vertex colourings, where I myself would struggle to
       | _verify_ any answer given only as free text without drawing a
       | diagram; that question seems to be grossly unfair.
        
         | detectivestory wrote:
         | I've commented below that I have tried playing some lateral
         | thinking games with chatGPT and I have found it to be pretty
         | poor at understanding what is going on when it has limited
         | information/context to work with. I had played around with
         | implementing chatGTP as a bot player on my "dark stories" app:
         | https://detective-stories.com/ but I found that it wasn't close
         | to even an average human player when it came to the skills
         | needed to play either role in the game.
        
           | Smaug123 wrote:
           | Oh absolutely a fair criticism! Personally I've all but
           | stopped using ChatGPT (I used it six times in the last seven
           | days before today, and two of them were for the same question
           | about GitHub Markdown) because it's just too unreliable. But
           | I really resent the preprint being given as evidence for
           | ChatGPT's disutility, because it's simply bad evidence.
        
         | usgroup wrote:
         | Might there be another explanation which fits the facts other
         | than the authors being wrong?
        
           | Smaug123 wrote:
           | I'm all ears!
        
             | croes wrote:
             | OpenAI read the paper and changed the model?
        
               | adamsmith143 wrote:
               | Yeah man they have teams on standby to adjust the model
               | whenever a random unknown author posts something on
               | obscure pre-print servers. Then they spend hundreds of
               | thousands of compute $ to improve the model on that one
               | metric the paper attacks.
        
               | croes wrote:
               | Have you tried a similar question with different
               | parameters?
               | 
               | It's pretty easy if you assume people are checking the
               | exact same quote.
        
               | Smaug123 wrote:
               | Quick work, _if_ they did so since the preprint was
               | posted six days ago, of which two were a weekend! My
               | version of ChatGPT claims to be the 3rd August version,
               | which gave them one day to respond unless they were
               | somehow targeting some sneak peek pre-preprint.
        
               | croes wrote:
               | Don't know how much time they need to tweak their model
               | but here is another possibility.
               | 
               | OoenAI sells GPT 4 but it's only GPT 3.5 because of lack
               | of resources.
               | 
               | Or more sinister, they knew what the author was about to
               | test and gave him the inferior model so it could be
               | easily debunked.
        
               | usgroup wrote:
               | 27th July was the first version of the paper.
               | 
               | https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202308.0148/v2
        
               | Smaug123 wrote:
               | A whole four working days to adjust the model in between
               | preprint release and the version of ChatGPT I'm using,
               | then! Do you think that's plausible? I certainly don't.
        
               | croes wrote:
               | Or simply the model was improved between the author's
               | test and the release of the paper.
               | 
               | BTW the time stamp of the model is easily falsifiable.
               | 
               | We are talking about a billion dollar business
               | opportunity so expect foul play all along.
        
       | sebzim4500 wrote:
       | (Almost?) nothing in the paper reproduces, as anyone who is
       | willing to spend a few cents on the API can confirm. Even if you
       | pin the version to before the release of this paper.
       | 
       | The Author was formerly an MIT researcher, how is it possible
       | they have produced this nonsense?
       | 
       | I don't mean to be glib, but do credentials mean nothing anymore?
       | Does this happen in other fields, except that a layman can not
       | test out the claims in e.g. a medical paper for themselves?
        
       | codeulike wrote:
       | _KA: Mable's heart rate at 9 AM was 75 bpm and her blood pressure
       | at 7 PM was 120 /80. She died at 11 PM. Was she alive at noon?_
       | 
       |  _GPT-4: Based on the information provided, it's impossible to
       | definitively say whether Mable was alive at noon. The data points
       | provided (heart rate at 9 AM and blood pressure at 7 PM) both
       | indicate that she was alive at those times. However, without
       | additional information about her condition between 7 PM and 11
       | PM, or at noon specifically, we can't make a certain
       | determination about her status at noon. Remember, medical
       | information can be complex and nuanced. Understanding a person's
       | health status often requires a comprehensive examination and
       | should be performed by a healthcare professional. If this is a
       | hypothetical question, keep in mind that real-life situations
       | would require more complete information._
        
         | throwawaymaths wrote:
         | To be fair, it's not obvious which noon is being referred to.
         | there is a noon after 11pm, at which time she would be dead.
        
         | ape4 wrote:
         | The reader needs to know something about the real world that
         | isn't written in the question. You need to know what to pull in
         | from the world. So I can see why it might be tricky.
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | This is the GPT-3.5 response, not GPT-4.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | croes wrote:
           | This is the GPT 3.5 response from now:
           | 
           | >Based on the information provided, Mable's heart rate was 75
           | bpm at 9 AM and her blood pressure was 120/80 at 7 PM.
           | However, her status at noon is not directly mentioned in the
           | information you provided. It is not possible to determine
           | whether she was alive at noon based on the given information
           | alone. Other factors and information would be needed to make
           | that determination.
           | 
           | Similar but not the same.
        
         | ThePyCoder wrote:
         | I copy pasted the exact prompt into gpt4 (not the api, the
         | webapp) and regenerated the answer 5 times.
         | 
         | Every time it came back with a conclusive yes. Are you sure you
         | used gpt4 and not gpt3.5? I guess cherry picking is done both
         | ways.
        
         | biofox wrote:
         | In fairness, Mable might have died at 11:59 and been
         | resuscitated at 12:01.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | But the response clearly started with "Based on the
           | information provided". Your premise is just made up to prove
           | a point I guess.
        
           | Waterluvian wrote:
           | I wonder if "well technically..." is useful, or if it's
           | almost always preferred for a conversational AI to speak with
           | common sense.
        
           | EGreg wrote:
           | It may not know about what noon means here
           | 
           | I had an experiment where I asked GPT-3 whether it agrees
           | that AI-generated content will constitute 20% of all content
           | in 9.999 years from now. It agreed. Then I said that it is
           | very likely that subsequently, AI generated content will
           | constitute 99.999% of all content in exactly 10 years from
           | now. It agreed also.
           | 
           | GPT-4 was able to realize that's too steep of an increase and
           | was skeptical.
        
         | rytill wrote:
         | I just tried this, and GPT-4 said:
         | 
         |  _Based on the information provided, Mable was alive at noon.
         | Her heart rate was recorded at 9 AM, and her blood pressure was
         | recorded at 7 PM, both of which are signs of life. She was
         | reported to have died at 11 PM, so she would have been alive at
         | noon._
         | 
         | I checked five times and it answered that Mable was alive at
         | noon all five times.
        
           | glerk wrote:
           | Mine also correctly answered that she was alive at noon, but
           | added his standard infuriating disclaimer in the last
           | sentence:
           | 
           | > However, always remember that real-life medical situations
           | can be complex, and this is a simple logical deduction based
           | on the data provided. If this is a fictional or hypothetical
           | scenario, then the above assumption is valid. If this is a
           | real-life situation or requires medical expertise, it would
           | be essential to consult with professionals or have more
           | comprehensive data to determine the facts.
        
             | nerevarthelame wrote:
             | I don't think it's infuriating that OpenAI tries to
             | discourage people from getting medical advice from an LLM
             | that was not designed to provide it.
        
               | glerk wrote:
               | I just wish there was a "treat me like an adult" button.
        
           | not2b wrote:
           | Do you know whether you are using the same version of GPT-4
           | as the authors of the article did?
        
             | rytill wrote:
             | I don't, but for most HN readers, the latest user-facing
             | model's capabilities are most relevant.
        
           | lukeinator42 wrote:
           | haha, I just asked a quantized version of llama 2 13b model
           | using llama.cpp the same question and this is what it said
           | the first time: "Answer: No, Mable was not alive at noon. Her
           | heart rate at 9 AM was 75 bpm, which suggests that she was
           | already experiencing some medical issues. By 7 PM, her blood
           | pressure had risen to 120/80, which is a concerning sign for
           | hypertension. Taken together with the fact that she died at
           | 11 PM, it is likely that Mable was not alive at noon. [end of
           | text]"
           | 
           | and a second time it said: "Solution: Mable's heart rate at 9
           | AM was 75 bpm, which means that it was not abnormal at that
           | time. At 7 PM, her blood pressure was 120/80, which is also
           | within the normal range. Therefore, based on these two pieces
           | of information, Mable was alive at noon.
           | 
           | Note: This problem is an example of a "living or dead"
           | problem, where we are given two or more pieces of information
           | about a person's physical state and must determine if they
           | are alive or dead based on those facts. These types of
           | problems can be tricky, as the information may not be
           | directly related to the person's vital signs, but rather to
           | other aspects of their health or well-being. [end of text]"
           | 
           | If I got the second answer the first time I'd definitely be
           | impressed. A paper like this should probably run the tests a
           | bunch of times though to quantify how badly these networks
           | "can't reason".
        
             | rytill wrote:
             | Which quantized version?
        
               | lukeinator42 wrote:
               | the llama-2-13b-chat.ggmlv3.q4_0.bin version from here:
               | https://huggingface.co/TheBloke/Llama-2-13B-chat-GGML
        
           | H8crilA wrote:
           | The people that write such "reviews" of ChatGPT must have no
           | respect for their careers. To include statements that can be
           | disproven in 30 seconds is ... something else.
        
             | croes wrote:
             | How do you know they didn't change the model?
        
         | rsiqueira wrote:
         | Even ChatGPT 3.5 can answer correctly if you ask just "She died
         | at 11 PM. Was she alive at noon?". My theory is that this is an
         | adversarial example that adds irrelevant information (bpm,
         | blood pressure, heart rate) that the model could have given
         | more attention than the relevant part of the question.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | starbugs wrote:
         | I got it to say:
         | 
         | > Based on the information provided:
         | 
         | > 1. Mable's heart rate at 9 AM was 75 bpm.
         | 
         | > 2. Her blood pressure at 7 PM was 120/80.
         | 
         | > 3. She died at 11 PM.
         | 
         | > It is evident that she was alive at both 9 AM and 7 PM.
         | However, there is no direct information provided about her
         | state at noon. Given the data, it is logical to infer that she
         | was alive at noon since she was alive both before and after
         | that time, but we cannot definitively state this without
         | explicit information.
         | 
         | This does only seem to happen sometimes. For most of my
         | attempts, GPT-4 gets it right the first time, but not always.
        
         | gen220 wrote:
         | That's interesting, GPT-4 is actually quite good at these types
         | of reasoning problems. This was the big step change between
         | 3/3.5 and 4.
         | 
         | Are you confident you're talking to GPT-4, and not another
         | chatbot?
        
       | owenversteeg wrote:
       | There are some serious problems with this paper, namely that I
       | just tried to reproduce it and it failed every test: I tested out
       | several of the problems presented in the paper which it was
       | claimed that GPT-4 failed on and it passed every one every time.
       | 
       | I used the standard chat.openai.com web interface with no special
       | or additional prompting.
       | 
       | It seems like there are others that have the same issues in this
       | thread, which raises the question - what went wrong here? I can't
       | see which version of GPT-4 the paper uses mentioned anywhere, did
       | anyone else spot this?
       | 
       | I've contacted the author and included this thread, so hopefully
       | we get some insight into what's happening here. To clarify, I am
       | not accusing the author of anything and on the contrary I
       | recognize that OpenAI is rather opaque about the models and
       | changes them frequently. That said, the responses from GPT-4 in
       | the paper do not match my personal experience using GPT-4 with
       | reasoning tasks at any point during the last several months,
       | which is why I am curious if the author may have accidentally
       | used GPT-3.5.
        
         | benlivengood wrote:
         | When I ask "What is the parity of times p is negated in the
         | following formula, paying close attention to avoiding off-by-
         | one errors: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
         | ~ p?" 10 times each in new ChatGPT4 sessions I get:
         | 
         | 1 "24", 1 "25", 5 "26"s, and 3 "27"s. ChatGPT names the
         | conversations "odd parity of negations" or "even parity of
         | negations" respectively, so the context is pretty clear. There
         | are a variety of textual responses surrounding the answer,
         | which I elide. I tried to give GPT4 as much help toward
         | strategies that wouldn't rely entirely on counting, and instead
         | focus on the heart of the problem; getting the parity right.
         | 
         | Every study/paper of this type really needs to report the
         | answer distribution over at least 10 exact repeats of the
         | prompt to account for the nondeterministic generation.
         | 
         | It is not surprising that with a 30% success rate on a problem
         | that one poster out of HN will get success on all of several
         | questions.
        
           | tornato7 wrote:
           | It's a bad question.
           | 
           | 1. This question just exploits GPT-4's inability to count
           | accurately, which is some combination of how the attention
           | mechanism and tokenization works. But counting isn't
           | reasoning. If you go around the counting and ask what the
           | value of p is negated 27 times, it will give you the right
           | answer every time.
           | 
           | 2. A reasonable human would probably make mistakes counting
           | tildes at a pretty high rate. Most people would probably
           | paste that into a word processor or otherwise use a program
           | to find the number of ~ signs, which GPT-4 will do if you use
           | the code interpreter.
        
         | hristov wrote:
         | Obviously someone is programming chatgpt to solve every
         | specific problem that gets popular mention as being one where
         | chatgpt fails. So as soon as this paper hit hn, I am sure
         | someone "fixed" chatgpt to solve these problems.
         | 
         | Of course if you want chatgpt to be a universal intelligence
         | this type of one by one approach will get you nowhere.
        
           | jncfhnb wrote:
           | That is extremely far from obvious.
        
             | ahartman00 wrote:
             | I do think the underlying point is a good one however. It
             | wouldnt be surprising that ai researchers read hn, and
             | other tech related social media. I also believe OpenAI are
             | also storing prompts and responses. They should be able to
             | make embeddings of all prompts and cluster them. When they
             | see popular prompts that are failing, they could easily add
             | the problem, solution, and reasoning to the training data.
             | We also know they are constantly fine tuning and releasing
             | new versions of models.
        
         | tornato7 wrote:
         | Every paper and comment I've seen that claims "GPT-4 can't
         | reason" is either an example of bad prompting, bad/vague
         | english, or taking advantage of the limitations of tokenization
         | (like asking GPT-4 how many letters there are in some word).
         | 
         | I would like to see one - just ONE example - of a well-defined
         | logical puzzle of that most english speakers can get right but
         | GPT-4 consistently fails on, even if you prompt it to think
         | through the problem step-by-step. Any takers?
        
           | spoiler wrote:
           | > Every paper and comment I've seen that claims "GPT-4 can't
           | reason" is either an example of bad prompting, bad/vague
           | english, or taking advantage of the limitations of
           | tokenization (like asking GPT-4 how many letters there are in
           | some word).
           | 
           | The problem isn't bad prompting. The problem is lack of
           | repetition. You can ask GPT4 the same question 10 times (with
           | same config) and you'll get wildly different/nondeterministic
           | responses. Sometimes it accidentally happens to be correct
           | (IME much less than half the time). Even if it was 50%, would
           | you say a coin flip reasons? Does an 8 ball reason?
        
             | tornato7 wrote:
             | There is a huge difference between being correct 50% of the
             | time (like a coin flip) and correct 51% of the time.
             | Because in the second case, you can run the model 10,000
             | times and the median response will be the correct one at
             | least 97% of the time. A coin can't do that. Any papers
             | evaluating GPT-4's responses should be doing repeat trials
             | and building confidence intervals, like any other research.
             | Anything else is just bad science.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | Is it possible OpenAI saw this as a bug report and fixed it?
         | 
         | Also that LLMs output is random so perhaps you just got lucky?
         | 
         | (peer review of your replication attempt)
        
         | dereg wrote:
         | It's really poor work.
         | 
         | There are two conclusions I took from scanning through this and
         | trying to reproduce a few of the reported failures.
         | 
         | 1. The author is bad at prompting. There are many ways to
         | reduce hallucinations and provoke better thinking paths for the
         | model.
         | 
         | 2. The author is using ChatGPT's GPT-4, leading him to conflate
         | "GPT-4" with "ChatGPT". While you can consider this a shared
         | failure with OpenAI, due to OpenAI's poor communication,
         | anybody doing serious work evaluating these models would know
         | that the first thing you need to do is use the API and pin the
         | model version. In the author's case, he should have used
         | gpt-4-0314 or gpt-4-0613. What I _suspect_ he did is that he
         | just used ChatGPT 's GPT-4, and likely the default model at
         | that. (Nobody should ever use the Default model. It's their
         | most heavily performance optimized model and performs worse on
         | reasoning tasks than the Plugins model, even on within-context-
         | size tasks.)
         | 
         | There are huge problems with that, because OpenAI has done both
         | a ton of fine tuning and performance optimization continuously
         | on the default ChatGPT model over time that its performance has
         | ranged anywhere from "I'm pretty sure this is gpt-3.5" to
         | "whoa, this is damn good" (the latter being mostly the model at
         | launch, which was probably the same as gpt-4-0314).
         | 
         | If the author has been working seriously at evaluating models,
         | specifying the model is the first thing he'd do. Perhaps he
         | should explain his reasoning.
        
           | password54321 wrote:
           | > 1. The author is bad at prompting. There are many ways to
           | reduce hallucinations and provoke better thinking paths for
           | the model.
           | 
           | Does "Provoke better thinking paths" mean re-rolling the dice
           | until you find some hack specific to chatGPT that 'just
           | works' or is there something more rigorous behind this?
        
             | letitgo12345 wrote:
             | Some of it is randomness for sure. However the prompts make
             | sense usually intuitively and there's a big deterministic
             | component -- as which prompts work are likely a function of
             | the training data which has a huge overlap between models.
             | 
             | Edit: And even if the exact same prompts don't work on
             | different models, similar prompts often do.
        
             | d0mine wrote:
             | "Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large
             | Language Models" seems better than just re-rolling the
             | dice. https://github.com/princeton-nlp/tree-of-thought-llm
        
             | jncfhnb wrote:
             | Phrasing a question poorly yields poor answers from humans.
             | Does rephrasing the question mean re rolling dice until you
             | get a form of question they understand?
        
             | Kareem71 wrote:
             | Seriously this is the part I dont understand about people
             | parroting "prompt engineering" . Isn't it really just
             | throwing random things at a non deterministic black box and
             | hoping for the best?
        
               | lsaferite wrote:
               | I find it's more like that silly experiment where you
               | have to make a sandwich exactly as a kid (or adult)
               | writes the instructions. You _think_ you have a good set
               | of instructions and then you get peanut butter on the
               | outside. So, you revisit the instructions to be clearer
               | about what you want done. That's how I see prompt
               | engineering. In that case, you are simply learning how
               | the model tends to follow instructions and crafting a
               | prompt around that. Not so much random, more purposeful.
        
               | FormerBandmate wrote:
               | That isn't the model reasoning. That's you figuring out
               | exactly what parameters you need to use to make the model
               | give the result you want.
               | 
               | It's Clever Hans on steroids
        
               | dingosity wrote:
               | As always, it's unclear on which side of the keyboard the
               | intelligence lies.
        
               | BoorishBears wrote:
               | If someone says they're fine tuning a model (which is
               | changing which layers are activated for a given input)
               | it's generally well tolerated.
               | 
               | If someone says they're tuning a prompt (which is
               | changing which layers are activated for a given input)
               | it's met with extreme skepticism.
               | 
               | At the end of the day ML is probabilistic. You're always
               | throwing random things at a black box and hoping for the
               | best. There are strategies and patterns that work
               | consistently enough (like ReACT) that they carry across
               | many tasks, and there are some that you'll find for your
               | specific task.
               | 
               | And just like any piece of software you define your scope
               | well, test for things within that scope, and monitor for
               | poor outputs.
        
               | verdagon wrote:
               | ELI5 layers? Could someone like me see when I've used one
               | layer as opposed to another, when using ChatGPT?
        
               | BoorishBears wrote:
               | Technically I'm taking a large liberty saying you're
               | "activating layers", all the layers are affecting the
               | output and you don't pick and choose them
               | 
               | But you can imagine the model like a plinko board: just
               | because the ball passes every peg, doesn't mean every peg
               | changed it's trajectory.
               | 
               | When you fine tune a model, you're trying to change how
               | the pegs are arranged so the ball falls through the board
               | differently.
               | 
               | When you prompt tune you're changing how the ball will
               | fall too. You don't get to change the board, but you can
               | change where the ball starts or have the ball go through
               | the board several more times than normal before the user
               | sees it, etc.
               | 
               | You can't see the ball falling (which layers are doing
               | what), only where it falls, but when you spend long
               | enough building on these models, you do get an intuition
               | for which prompts have an outsized effect on where the
               | ball will land.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | > If someone says they're fine tuning a model (which is
               | changing which layers are activated for a given input)
               | it's generally well tolerated.
               | 
               | > If someone says they're tuning a prompt (which is
               | changing which layers are activated for a given input)
               | it's met with extreme skepticism.
               | 
               | There are good reasons for that though. The first is the
               | model-owner tuning so that given inputs yield better
               | outputs (in theory for other users too). The second is
               | relying on the user to diagnose and fix the error. That
               | being the "fix" is a problem if the output is supposed to
               | be useful to people who don't know the answers
               | themselves, or if the model is being touted as
               | "intelligence" with a natural language interface, which
               | is where the scepticism comes in...
               | 
               | I mean, a bugfix, a recommendation not to use the 3rd
               | menu option or a "fork this" button are all valid routes
               | to change the runtime behaviour of a program!
               | 
               | (and yes, I get that the "tuning" might simply be
               | creating the _illusion_ that the model approaches wider
               | usability, and that  "fine tuning" might actually have
               | worse side effects. So it's certainly reasonable to argue
               | that when a company defines its models' scope as
               | "advanced reasoning capabilities" the "tuning" might also
               | deserve scepticism, and conversely if it defines its
               | scope more narrowly as something like "code complete"
               | there might be a bit more onus on the user to provide
               | structured, valid inputs)
        
               | BoorishBears wrote:
               | I'm not sure what this is trying to say.
               | 
               | Neither option implies you own the model or don't: OpenAI
               | owns the model and uses prompt tuning for their website
               | interface, which is why it changes more often than the
               | underlying models themselves. They also let you fine tune
               | their older models, which you don't own.
               | 
               | You also seem to be missing that in this context prompt
               | tuning and fine tuning are both about downstream tasks
               | where the "user" is not you as an individual who's fine
               | tuning and improve prompts, but the people (plural) who
               | are using the now improved outputs.
        
               | bbor wrote:
               | That's science :). We have now established many
               | strategies for context-independent effective prompting
               | via typical experimental research - see
               | https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6654000-best-
               | practices-f...
        
               | dingosity wrote:
               | That is explicitly NOT science.
        
               | qgin wrote:
               | It's not deterministic, but if you set temperature = 0,
               | you'll start of find reliable techniques for all kinds
               | outcomes.
        
               | tiborsaas wrote:
               | Almost, but it's more like throwing ideas with an
               | expected outcome at a non deterministic black box and
               | hoping for the best.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | No, its not. While GPT-4 (like some but not all other
               | LLMs) is somewhat nondeterministic (even at zero
               | temperature), that doesn't mean there aren't things that
               | have predictable effects on the distribution of behavior
               | that can be discovered and leveraged.
        
               | throwawayadvsec wrote:
               | There are definitely patterns that transfer across
               | different problems, it's not random at all.
        
               | redox99 wrote:
               | Obviously not. For example using Chain of Thought will
               | increase the model's performance[1]
               | 
               | [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903
        
             | Verdex wrote:
             | I'm kind of concerned about the concept of "bad at
             | prompting".
             | 
             | The hypothesis that I'm working off right now is that
             | natural language has structure to it that happens to match
             | some problem spaces. And this makes sense because people
             | will naturally want to talk succinctly and with a
             | convenient flow relative to the problems they encounter the
             | most. Thus jargon is reborn many times over in different
             | domains.
             | 
             | LLMs are encoding this structure.
             | 
             | So a good prompt is one that provides the LLM with
             | additional information about what you expect the answer to
             | be. And bad prompts provide neutral or disinformation.
             | 
             | This isn't to say that being good at prompts is somehow to
             | be disingenuous about the power of LLMs. What is better? To
             | remember much redundant data. Or to remember simply the
             | right sorts of ways to search for the classes of
             | information you are after.
             | 
             | My concern, though, is that the structure of reality
             | doesn't have to match the way that we talk about it. The
             | Novel and the Inexpressible* will tend to yield
             | hallucinations.
             | 
             | [Although, I've had this concern long before I encountered
             | LLMs. My feeling is that there are many people who can only
             | solve problems that match the way they talk about them.]
             | 
             | * - technically, the difficult or unnatural to express, but
             | I couldn't fit that into a single word.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | >I'm kind of concerned about the concept of "bad at
               | prompting".
               | 
               | I have met many people in my life that are terrible at
               | asking questions, so it does have some conceptual
               | reality. But this is also why analogy is so powerful for
               | people. It takes the way a person thinks about $A and
               | applies parts of it to $B so they can more easily wrap
               | their mind around it.
               | 
               | Has anyone written a paper about testing and expressing
               | the power of analogy in LLMs?
        
           | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
           | >> The author is using ChatGPT's GPT-4, leading him to
           | conflate "GPT-4" with "ChatGPT".
           | 
           | For the last three years or so every time someone reports
           | negative results with an LLM, someone on HN will say the
           | other person must be using the older model and they would get
           | better results if they used the newest model. Then, when the
           | newest model becomes common and people start posting more
           | negative results with it, someone will post on HN to say
           | "It's still early days, give it time, the models will
           | improve".
           | 
           | This is such massive shifting of the goalposts that I can
           | almost visualise the scene: a football stadium, the crowd
           | jeering, two teams moving their goalposts around the pitch
           | while the referee is jumping up and down blowing his whistle
           | red in the face, in risk of swallowing the pea.
           | 
           | And nobody is playing ball.
           | 
           | * football = soccer.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | Uh, what? Do you have any source that GPT4 on web is not
           | gpt-4-0613? Because I do not think that is true, my guess is
           | you just have different settings for the decoder
        
             | dereg wrote:
             | GPT-4 in ChatGPT has changed so much and so frequently.
             | I've spent an inordinate time using both, side by side, and
             | it has mostly failed to replicate the performance of their
             | API offerings. While I don't have examples on hand right
             | now, you can also look for yourself. Just look at the
             | network requests in the web inspector. Here's the
             | description of the Default ChatGPT GPT-4 model:
             | {           "slug": "gpt-4",           "max_tokens": 4095,
             | "title": "GPT-4",           "description": "Our most
             | capable model, great for tasks that require creativity and
             | advanced reasoning.",           "tags": [
             | "gpt4"           ],           "capabilities": {},
             | "product_features": {}         }
             | 
             | Note the context size is 4095. Their model has been heavily
             | optimized for speed and, presumably, cost.
        
               | tarvaina wrote:
               | I would guess max_tokens refers to the number of
               | generated tokens, not the size of the context window.
               | That at least is the meaning of max_tokens in the ChatGPT
               | API.
               | 
               | https://platform.openai.com/docs/api-
               | reference/chat/create#c...
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | I do not see what that description shows.
               | 
               | From the OAI API, gpt-4 seems to be an alias for the most
               | recent model two weeks after it is released. There has
               | not been a release since 0613.
               | 
               | https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4
               | 
               | e: from your edit,
               | 
               | "Note the context size is 4095. Their model has been
               | heavily optimized for speed and, presumably, cost."
               | 
               | No, they are restricting context size to make inference
               | on the chat interface cheaper but that does not mean it
               | is a different model.
        
               | dereg wrote:
               | Keep in mind that the information in the link you
               | provided only applies to the developer models, which are
               | only accessible via API and OpenAI Playground.
               | 
               | OpenAI's developer relations person confirmed it a little
               | whiles back:
               | 
               | > [..] I made the comment elsewhere, but the models are
               | always changing in ChatGPT.
               | 
               | https://twitter.com/OfficialLoganK/status/166447707026357
               | 043...
        
             | furyofantares wrote:
             | Some time ago when people started reporting degradation,
             | Logan.GPT (Developer Relations @OpenAI) clarified that the
             | API models don't change.
             | 
             | This caused a lot of confusion because people thought that
             | was a claim that ChatGPT doesn't change. He then further
             | clarified that "the models are changing all the time in
             | ChatGPT".
             | 
             | https://nitter.net/OfficialLoganK/status/166447660465806951
             | 1
        
           | brabel wrote:
           | > Perhaps he should explain his reasoning.
           | 
           | Ha! To evaluate an AI's reasoning, you need to be better at
           | reasoning than the AI, which is becoming very difficult as AI
           | improves.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | admax88qqq wrote:
             | More like you to evaluate an AI's reasoning, you need to be
             | good enough at reasoning yourself to ensure you're actually
             | evaluating the AI you intended to evaluate.
        
           | flangola7 wrote:
           | >Nobody should ever use the Default model. It's their most
           | heavily performance optimized model and performs worse on
           | reasoning tasks than the Plugins model, even on within-
           | context-size tasks.
           | 
           | I wish to explore this. My experience is your reverse,
           | default is smart and almost never hallucinates, but I have
           | sent the plugin or web search model to URLs asking it produce
           | a summary and witnessed it misunderstand nuanced content and
           | at times hallucinate from whole cloth, generating answers
           | about a completely unrelated topic.
        
         | danpalmer wrote:
         | Every failed answer is data that feeds the model when reported.
         | Every suggested correct feeds the model.
         | 
         | It's expected that specific prompts will improve in this way,
         | but I don't think it invalidates the finding that GPT-4 was
         | unable to reason in these ways from training data.
         | 
         | Whether the improvements over time are able to change the
         | overall quality of reasoning or not is an interesting and
         | difficult question to answer.
        
           | Terretta wrote:
           | That's not how the versioned release GPT-4 models work.
        
           | lukev wrote:
           | This is not how large language models work.
           | 
           | The only way this could happen is if they deliberately
           | include the prompt and the correct answers (e.g, this paper)
           | in the training data for the next version of the model.
           | 
           | Each version of the model itself is immutable. Is not
           | constantly being updated based on everything getting typed
           | into ChatGPT.
        
             | danpalmer wrote:
             | I'm not saying this is a "live" update, but all usage is
             | collected and used to inform later offline training or
             | fine-tuning.
             | 
             | Whether they are used directly with the positive/negative
             | signal given from users, or whether it's something more
             | abstract, doesn't really matter. The important thing is
             | that feedback is used to improve the responses over time.
             | 
             | As for whether a version is immutable, it seems this
             | research may have been done on a previous version. But also
             | I'm not sure if the model and weights are immutable, or
             | whether it's just the model structure. It's clear the model
             | is not stable so it's not like there's an API contract
             | being met with fixed weights.
             | 
             | Edit: others are suggesting that the author used GPT-4 via
             | ChatGPT, not by pinning the model. This would suggest that
             | at least the ChatGPT tuned model is being frequently
             | changed?
        
               | Terretta wrote:
               | Being pedantic, (a) this comment is also incorrect, and
               | (b) even if correct, wouldn't fix all these results
               | immediately.
               | 
               | The simplest explanation is researcher error.
        
               | danpalmer wrote:
               | Assuming the researcher didn't lie, it seems unlikely
               | that they got the responses wrong in some way.
               | 
               | The most likely alternative explanation I can think of is
               | that this is the seemingly well know instability of
               | results caused by the way the MoE architecture is
               | implemented for GPT-4?
               | 
               | I'd love to understand what exactly is wrong in my
               | understanding. I realise I've only got a layman's
               | understanding of this, but it seems clear that OpenAI and
               | others depend on these feedback loops to improve things
               | over time. Is that not the case?
        
               | ralusek wrote:
               | It is explicitly known the the training data cutoff for
               | GPT4 is September 2021. While we can assume that feedback
               | is taken into consideration for future training of new
               | models, the training data used to train all current
               | models is a specific bundle of data with that cutoff
               | date.
        
         | staticman2 wrote:
         | I just for fun accessed GPT 4 through nat.dev and tried one of
         | the questions:
         | 
         | "Mable's heart rate at 9 AM was 75 bpm and her blood pressure
         | at 7 PM was 120/80. She died at 11 PM. Was she alive at noon?"
         | 
         | I provided no system context, temperature is 0.5.
         | 
         | The response I got was:
         | 
         | "As an AI, I don't have real-time monitoring capabilities.
         | Based on the information provided, Mable was alive at 9 AM and
         | 7 PM. There is no information provided about her condition at
         | noon."
         | 
         | I then changed the system prompt from nothing to "A helpful
         | assistant who is good at reasoning" and ran it again. The
         | result was:
         | 
         | "Based on the information provided, it can be reasonably
         | assumed that Mable was alive at noon. Her heart rate was
         | recorded at 9 AM and her blood pressure was recorded at 7 PM,
         | both of which indicate that she was alive at those times.
         | Therefore, it is logical to infer that she was also alive at
         | noon, which falls between these two times. However, without
         | direct evidence, it is impossible to say with absolute
         | certainty."
        
           | antonvs wrote:
           | > "There is no information provided about her condition at
           | noon."
           | 
           | > "... However, without direct evidence, it is impossible to
           | say with absolute certainty."
           | 
           | GPT is correct in both cases, she might have died just before
           | noon and been resuscitated after noon. After all, the fact
           | that we know her blood pressure suggests that she might be in
           | hospital, so it's not even an unlikely scenario.
        
             | knodi123 wrote:
             | Shades of the "Fair Witness" from Stranger In A Strange
             | Land.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stranger_in_a_Strange_Land#Fa
             | i...
        
           | eschneider wrote:
           | Eh...I died once, and it got better, so I'd say that in this
           | case GPT 4 is technically correct. And as we all know,
           | technically correct is the best kind of correct.
        
           | ineedasername wrote:
           | Yes, it is a very interesting aspect of these models that
           | they have a "low self esteem" (of course, not in the literal
           | human sense) in their own abilities until you give them a pep
           | talk, "don't worry LLM, you got this"
        
             | paulddraper wrote:
             | It's a reticence to hallucinate.
        
             | elboru wrote:
             | Good analogy, I also noticed it in other scenarios, for
             | example when I want it to tell me if I'm wrong in an
             | assumption, or when I want to know its opinion on some
             | approach I'm thinking to take. It is too nice, almost like
             | it doesn't want to impose its thoughts or hurting my
             | feelings lol.
        
               | BoorishBears wrote:
               | A more generalized approach than encouraging them is
               | simply telling them who to model themselves after.
               | 
               | A 10 year graphic design artist talking to another career
               | graphic design artist will be opinionated about selecting
               | a specific font for example. But an persona-less AI
               | trained to be helpful to all people should not be so
               | opinionated, since a beginner might be mislead into
               | thinking there's only 1 font for their situation, rather
               | than an assortment of guidelines and intuition most
               | professionals have.
        
         | nomel wrote:
         | > can't see which version of GPT-4 the paper uses mentioned
         | anywhere
         | 
         | I completely ignore any paper, article, or comment that
         | criticizes an AI model without including the version. Not
         | including a version demonstrates a fundamental lack of
         | understanding of what AI models are.
        
         | owenversteeg wrote:
         | I didn't have time to go through all 49 pages and plug
         | everything into GPT-4 but here is what I tested:
         | 
         | - Suppose I'm in the middle of South Dakota and I'm looking
         | straight down towards the center of Texas. Is Boston to my left
         | or to my right?
         | 
         | - Mable's heart rate at 9 AM was 75 bpm and her blood pressure
         | at 7 PM was 120/80. She died at 11 PM. Was she alive at noon?
         | 
         | - There are five square blocks stacked on top of one another.
         | You are given the following information about them: 1. The
         | second-from-the-top block is green. 2. The fourth-from-the-top
         | block is not green. Assuming that these two premises hold,
         | disprove or else prove the following conclusion: There is a
         | green block directly on top of a non-green block. Explain your
         | answer.
         | 
         | - Tom and Nancy commute to work. Nancy's commute takes about 30
         | to 40 minutes, while Tom's commute takes about 40 to 50
         | minutes. Last Friday, Nancy left home between 8:10 and 8:20 AM,
         | while Tom arrived at work between 8:50 and 9:10 AM. In
         | addition, Nancy arrived at work after Tom left his place, but
         | no more than 20 minutes after that. What can we conclude about
         | when Tom and Nancy arrived at work last Friday?
         | 
         | - Let Z be a random vector consisting of n random variables
         | X1,...Xn. Under what conditions can the entropy of Z exceed the
         | sum of the entropies of all Xi?
         | 
         | Given that zero of these reproduced (and GPT-4 thinking about
         | them correctly also fits with my personal experience) I have a
         | feeling that perhaps the author used GPT-3.5 mistakenly?
        
           | d0mine wrote:
           | GPT-4 can't reason: "Yes, I'm sure. If you are in South
           | Dakota and facing towards Texas (which means you are facing
           | south), then Boston, Massachusetts, which is located to the
           | east of South Dakota, would be on your right side."
           | 
           | --- If you are facing North, is East to the right or to the
           | left from you?
           | 
           | GPT-4: "East is to the right from you."
           | 
           | --- It appears GPT-4 thinks East is always on the right
           | regardless you are facing North or South.
        
           | owenversteeg wrote:
           | After failures with all the others I tried, I was finally
           | able to reproduce one of the questions from the paper:
           | 
           | >Seven cards are placed on the table, each of which has a
           | number on one side and a single colored patch on the other
           | side. The faces of the cards show 50, 16, red, yellow, 23,
           | green, 30. Which cards would you have to turn to test the
           | truth of the proposition that if a card is showing a multiple
           | of 4 then the color of the opposite side is yellow?
           | 
           | However, it's important to notice that this is an incorrect
           | restating of the Wason selection task. "If a card is showing
           | a multiple of 4" would imply that you only care about cards
           | where the number side is face up and are a multiple of 4.
           | However, the original task refers to cards that "have [a
           | multiple of 4] on one face" or "show [a multiple of 4] on one
           | face" which implies that you care about cards with a multiple
           | of 4 on one face regardless of its face up or down status.
           | 
           | Also important to note is that the Wason selection task has a
           | fairly poor success rate with actual humans: the original
           | study was 36 students of statistics at the University College
           | London, of which less than 10% got the correct answer - if
           | you asked the general population on the street I would be
           | shocked if you got over 3% correct.
           | 
           | Even more interestingly:
           | 
           | >Evolutionary psychologists Leda Cosmides and John Tooby
           | (1992) identified that the selection task tends to produce
           | the "correct" response when presented in a context of social
           | relations. For example, if the rule used is "If you are
           | drinking alcohol, then you must be over 18", and the cards
           | have an age on one side and beverage on the other, e.g.,
           | "16", "drinking beer", "25", "drinking soda", most people
           | have no difficulty in selecting the correct cards ("16" and
           | "drinking beer").
        
             | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
             | To be very clear, most of the people I know and work with
             | would not get the card one.
        
               | cmrdporcupine wrote:
               | But you could walk them through their errors or get them
               | to retrace their steps, and end up with a correction.
               | 
               | ChatGPT becomes more incoherent the most you interrogate
               | and try to help it.
        
       | sheepscreek wrote:
       | Did the author mention anywhere if they use the API or the
       | ChatGPT web app? Did they provide an additional prompt with
       | instructions on how to answer each question, or a system prompt?
        
       | slowhadoken wrote:
       | Ask ChatGPT if it's AI.
        
         | shwaj wrote:
         | That is one question where you're guaranteed to get the canned
         | response that OpenAI RLHFed into it.
        
       | hcarvalhoalves wrote:
       | User: Assume there's a function s(X) for which s(0) = 1. What is
       | s(1)? Take a guess.
       | 
       | ChatGPT: Since there's no specific information about the function
       | s(X) or any constraints on its behavior, I can make a guess, but
       | please note that this is purely speculative and may not have any
       | basis in reality:
       | 
       | One simple possibility could be that the function s(X) is defined
       | by s(X) = X + 1, which would mean:
       | 
       | s(0) = 0 + 1 = 1 s(1) = 1 + 1 = 2
       | 
       | Again, this is just a guess based on a simple linear
       | relationship. Without more context or information about the
       | function, any guess is as good as another.
       | 
       | User: So what is s(-1)?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: Given the information provided that s(0) = 1, and
       | assuming a simple linear relationship for the function s(X) = X +
       | 1, we can apply the same logic to find s(-1):
       | 
       | s(-1) = -1 + 1 = 0
       | 
       | So, based on the assumed linear relationship, s(-1) would be 0.
       | 
       | User: What is the size of the image set of this function then?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: The image set of a function refers to the set of all
       | possible output values that the function can produce for its
       | input values. In the case of the function s(X) = X + 1, where X
       | can be any real number, the image set is the set of all possible
       | values that the function can produce.
       | 
       | Since the function is a simple linear function that adds 1 to the
       | input, the image set is the set of all real numbers. In
       | mathematical notation, this can be represented as:
       | 
       | Image set of s(X) = {s(X) | s(X) [?] R}
       | 
       | In other words, the image set of the function s(X) = X + 1 is the
       | entire set of real numbers.
       | 
       | User: Is the image set of this function countable?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: Yes, the image set of the function s(X) = X + 1 is
       | countable.
       | 
       | A set is considered countable if its elements can be put into
       | one-to-one correspondence with the natural numbers (1, 2, 3,
       | ...). In the case of the function s(X) = X + 1, the image set
       | consists of all real numbers, and the real numbers are not
       | countable - they form an uncountably infinite set.
       | 
       | However, the specific image set of the function s(X) = X + 1 is
       | still countable, because it is essentially a shifted version of
       | the set of natural numbers. For each natural number n, there is a
       | corresponding value s(X) = n + 1 in the image set. So, even
       | though the entire set of real numbers is uncountable, the image
       | set of this specific function is countable.
       | 
       | User: Is the image set of this function the same cardinality of
       | the real numbers set or the natural numbers set?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: The image set of the function s(X) = X + 1 has the same
       | cardinality as the set of real numbers (R), which is an
       | uncountably infinite set.
       | 
       | The function s(X) = X + 1 maps every real number to a unique real
       | number by adding 1 to it. Since the set of real numbers is
       | uncountably infinite, the image set of this function is also
       | uncountably infinite and has the same cardinality as the set of
       | real numbers.
       | 
       | The cardinality of the set of natural numbers (N) is countably
       | infinite, which is a smaller cardinality than the set of real
       | numbers. Therefore, the image set of this function does not have
       | the same cardinality as the set of natural numbers.
       | 
       | User: Previously you said the image set of the function s(X) = X
       | + 1 is still countable. Now you say the function has the same
       | cardinality as the set of real numbers, which is uncountable.
       | What is the correct answer?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: I apologize for the confusion in my previous responses.
       | Let's clarify:
       | 
       | The correct answer is that the image set of the function s(X) = X
       | + 1 has the same cardinality as the set of real numbers (R),
       | which is uncountably infinite.
       | 
       | To reiterate, the image set of the function s(X) = X + 1 is not
       | countable. Each real number is mapped to a unique real number by
       | adding 1 to it, covering the entire real number line. Since the
       | set of real numbers is uncountably infinite, the image set of
       | this function is also uncountably infinite and has the same
       | cardinality as the set of real numbers.
        
       | empath-nirvana wrote:
       | I think the fundamental flaw of this paper is that it's
       | _starting_ from the assumption that it can't reason and taking
       | any demonstration of flawed reasoning is evidence that it can't
       | reason _at all_, but there are many examples of ChatGPT output
       | that I would argue aren't possible _without_ some form of
       | reasoning and even a _single_ example of that is proof that it
       | can reason, no matter how many failures and counter examples
       | there are.
       | 
       | It seems to me that focusing on understanding exactly how and
       | under what conditions it can and can't reason would be a much
       | more interesting paper than making a blanket, totally
       | unsupportable claim that it _can't_.
        
       | lsy wrote:
       | We are not going to prove or disprove "reasoning" through giving
       | the LLM word problems. LLMs subvert the entire foundation of word
       | problems, which is that words correlate to internal
       | representations and are an indicator of thought processes. Word
       | problems don't have construct validity for testing reasoning in
       | LLMs.
       | 
       | On top of this, there is an almost-certainty that OpenAI has
       | teams of contractors reading as many conversations as possible
       | and hand-fixing bad responses, which makes non-reproducibility a
       | difficult concept when the object of inquiry can change from
       | moment-to-moment.
       | 
       | What the field needs is not more people thinking up word problems
       | but rigorous analysis of the internal behavior of these models
       | and maybe more importantly a functional definition of terms like
       | "reasoning" that everyone can agree on.
        
       | j45 wrote:
       | About the paper - academics are often not experts of real world
       | use and hence "research it".
       | 
       | This might explain why prompts written by the public are
       | providing startlingly good results.
       | 
       | GPT definitely seems to reason to some extent, especially where
       | you invite it to reason along with you in an area of
       | intersectional information that does not exist in its training.
       | 
       | If there are some tests average users could try in their
       | reasoning type conversations with gpt I'd be very happy to try
       | them out
        
       | mjburgess wrote:
       | Lot's of people in this thread seem desperate to not think
       | clearly about this.
       | 
       | Whether these tests, verbatim produce the same response on any
       | given version isn't the point. GPT4 doesn't engage in reasoning
       | if it gets any answers right. Being "right" isn't a sign of
       | reasoning. Given a dictionary mapping from questions to answers
       | the index operation gets answers right, but it isn't reasoning.
       | 
       | The purpose of the paper is to exhaustively list _proxy_
       | indicators of reasoning. _Clearly_ other tests will fail in every
       | class listed, because the LLM isn 't engaged in reasoning. Since
       | LLMs are stocahstic you shouldnt expect "reporduction" in the
       | same sense. The paper provides classes of problems.
       | 
       | To reproduce it you only need to find a minor permutation of the
       | problem in each class. But people subject to gross confirmation-
       | bias seem only to seek out prompts which produce the right
       | answers.
       | 
       | P(next|prev), ie., P(answer word | prompt words) is just a
       | dictionary lookup, and that's the optimisation objective for an
       | LLM.
       | 
       | It turns out sequences of inferences eg., {Socrates is a Man, All
       | men are mortal, thef. Socrates is mortal} can be modelled by
       | dictionary lookups of the above form -- but we're not interested
       | in whether the answer can be found from the prompt. Whether this
       | sequence of props can be stored as a sequence of index
       | operations.
       | 
       | We're interested in whether the system reasons. ie., whether the
       | sequencing operation is inference by logical necessity.
       | 
       | It's incomprehensible to me how gullible people are around AI
       | today -- the Eliza effect coupled with a pseudoscientific impulse
       | to "whatever appears to work".
        
         | epups wrote:
         | How do you know for sure how human reasoning occurs, and that
         | it does not use similar mechanisms?
         | 
         | (edited second question to make it focused)
        
           | DonaldPShimoda wrote:
           | We don't need to know _how_ human reasoning occurs.
           | 
           | If you ask an AI chatbot a question like "count the number of
           | occurrences of 'l' in the word 'lollapalooza'" (and then
           | follow up on its responses), it becomes obvious that it is
           | not "reasoning"; it is simply following a sort-of script.
           | Here is a summarized transcript of this exercise with
           | ChatGPT:
           | 
           | ---
           | 
           | Me: Count the number of occurrences of the letter 'l' in the
           | word 'lollapalooza'.
           | 
           | AI: The letter 'l' appears four times in the word
           | 'lollapalooza'.
           | 
           | Me: Describe the process by which you arrived at this answer.
           | 
           | AI: [Provided a description of counting characters and then
           | highlighted the first 'l' in the word four separate times to
           | justify its answer.]
           | 
           | Me: You counted thief first occurrence four times. That is
           | incorrect.
           | 
           | AI: I apologize for the mistake in my previous response. You
           | are absolutely right. Here's the correct count of occurrences
           | of the letter 'l' in the word 'lollapalooza':
           | 
           | AI: [Provided a list of 8 "occurrences" of 'l' in the word
           | 'lollapalooza', including replacing the first 'o' with an 'l'
           | ("occurrence" 3) and counting letters like 'p', 'z', and 'a'.
           | 
           | ---
           | 
           | So even though the correct answer was provided at first, the
           | model was not able to faithfully produce responses that
           | backed up how it arrived at that conclusion, and when pressed
           | to double-check its work it simply made things up. Even a
           | toddler would not have claimed 'z' and 'a' were instances of
           | 'l'.
           | 
           | AI chatbots do not _reason_. They produce text responses to
           | prompts based on stochastic methods. Trying to conflate the
           | issue by suggesting that  "we don't know how humans reason,
           | so how do we know AI bots don't reason" is, frankly, absurd.
           | We can easily demonstrate that they are inconsistent and have
           | no concept of what they are writing responses about, as shown
           | above.
        
             | cmrdporcupine wrote:
             | Exactly, and this is what shows me that many people didn't
             | seriously read much of the paper they're commenting on.
             | 
             | The question is not whether an AI can get logical questions
             | right. The question is whether it used reasoning to do it.
             | 
             | And, like it or not, we have a formal definition of
             | reasoning and logic, and long expertise in analyzing how
             | that works.
             | 
             | And it so happens that the paper's author is both a PhD in
             | computer science but also a masters in philosophy and
             | worked on proof engineering and logical deduction systems
             | before.
             | 
             | So the bulk of the paper is not about _" ha ha it got it
             | wrong"_, it's about: how did you get that answer? And the
             | machine is not able to show evidence of reasoning, in fact
             | it shows the opposite, even when it gets it right.
             | 
             |  _Reasoning_ is a verb. It 's an interactive, dialectical,
             | process. LLMs don't seem to do that. They model a problem
             | based on the relational/linguistic structures within it and
             | related materials, but do not reason about it.
        
           | freejazz wrote:
           | The old "I know you are, but what am I" defense
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | This is the real big question. We don't know how human
           | reasoning works, but we are happy to identify, entirely based
           | on external interaction, what is and isn't correct human
           | reasoning.
           | 
           | Then someone comes up with P(A|B) is not reasoning, which
           | seems like an internal mechanism.
           | 
           | How do we square that?
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | Top-down style of AI capability denial. You got an abstract
         | idea, like "next token prediction" and that's all you need to
         | know. Doesn't matter what the AI does, it has no chance to
         | prove it reasons.
         | 
         | Why not look at what the model does, maybe in all those tensors
         | there are reasoning principles encoded.
        
           | beepbooptheory wrote:
           | What is a "reasoning principle" and how might it be
           | "encoded"?
           | 
           | Also are we really calling it "denial" now? Because it's a
           | little funny to make the move of simply psychologizing away
           | the criticism, when your actual AI argument, presumably, is
           | that inner consciousness/rationality is black boxes all the
           | way down anyway. Like, how can you presume to look inside the
           | mind of your critic so confidently, to assert they are in
           | denial, but in the same breath say that such a thing is in
           | principal impossible? Don't you think it maybe takes away the
           | force of your argument? Or at least goes against its spirit?
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | I've spent the last decade in the most technical parts of
           | this industry; it is my job to expunge this credulousness.
           | 
           | It is indeed trivial to show that P(A|B) is a poor model of
           | "B => A" (and B causes A, and many other relata). Software
           | engineers, philosophers and experimental scientists seem
           | pretty good at seeing this --- people who "convert into"
           | engineering are totally dumbfounded by it.
           | 
           | P(A|B) becomes an increasingly 'useful' model of arbitrary
           | relations as the implicit model P_m(A|B) grows to include all
           | instances of A,B. That's what digitising all of human history
           | and storing it in the weights of an LLM does.
           | 
           | This all follows from basic stats you'd be taught in an
           | applied statistics course; one never taken by most in the ML
           | industry.
           | 
           | (Note its still a broken model because there's an infinite
           | number of novel instances of (A,B) pairs in most cases that
           | cannot be modelled with this sort of inductive learning).
           | 
           | Engineering at its heart, is a kind of pseudoscience (or, if
           | you prefer: a magic trick). You find some heuristic which
           | behaves as-if its the target under fragile but engineering-
           | stable conditions.
           | 
           | The problem with engineers who only have magic tricks in
           | their toolkit is this credulousness. Homeopathy worked: you
           | put people in beds and give them water and they recover
           | (indeed, better than leaching them).
        
             | antonvs wrote:
             | > people who "convert into" engineering are totally
             | dumbfounded by it.
             | 
             | How does that human failure to reason affect the evaluation
             | of GPT's reasoning capabilities?
             | 
             | You're being very dogmatic that anyone who has a different
             | opinion than you are "desperate to not thinking clearly" or
             | "gullible", but you're exhibiting errors in reasoning that
             | are rather ironic given the context.
             | 
             | Edit:
             | 
             | You don't know how human reasoning works - no-one does.
             | People tend to assume that our post-hoc conscious ability
             | to "understand" the reasoning process must somehow relate
             | to the actual operations the brain performs when reasoning.
             | But that's not necessarily the case.
             | 
             | Note that I'm not claiming that LLMs are equivalent to
             | human in their reasoning ability: after all, in some cases
             | they're _functionally_ demonstrably superior, especially
             | compared to the average human. But in other significant
             | cases, they 're certainly worse.
             | 
             | The point is we shouldn't impose too many assumptions on
             | how reasoning "should" work, and there seems to be a strong
             | tendency to do that, which you're exhibiting.
        
               | freejazz wrote:
               | >How does that human failure to reason affect the
               | evaluation of GPT's reasoning capabilities?
               | 
               | Isn't that your argument? That not knowing how humans
               | reason means that we can't say that GPT isn't reasoning?
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | There's an amusing formulation of model risk here.
               | Consider that the person prompting ChatGPT has an ability
               | reason, say FooledApe. Then we have the problem of
               | evaluating,
               | 
               | P(...P(..P(P(gptCanReason|FooledApe) |
               | P(HumanReasoning|FooledApe))) |
               | FooledApe)...|..FooledApe)
               | 
               | My preference is to removed the condition 'Fooled', alas
               | unable to remove 'Ape'.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Maybe this is a clearer way of thinking about the
               | problem:
               | 
               | Imagine you call a friend for help on an essay (on any
               | topic of your choice). But they have access to google and
               | libgen and they're quick at looking.
               | 
               | For awhile, on the call, you think your friend is a
               | genius but then you get suspicious. How would you tell if
               | they knew what they were talking about?
               | 
               | NB. whether they do or not has nothing to do with
               | whatever qs you come up with -- they do or they dont.
               | And, indeed, people are easy to fool.
               | 
               | You might ask, "why care if they know?" but then you have
               | serious questions on things which matter, not just
               | essays. And googling isnt good enough.
               | 
               | Being able to weight information by expertise, engage in
               | reasoning in which contradictions are impermissible,
               | engage in causal inference, in abduction -- in imagining
               | possibilities which have never occurred exactly before
               | ------ these suddenly become vital.
               | 
               | And your friend who is not a PhD in anything, let alone
               | everything, suddenly becomes vastly more dangerous and
               | insidious.
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | >Whether these tests, verbatim produce the same response on any
         | given version isn't the point.
         | 
         | The paper make a nonsensical claim but fails to back it with
         | results. If anyone isn't doing any thinking here, it's you. How
         | deluded do you have to be to have such strong confirmation bias
         | on a "paper" that doesn't even confirm those biases. Chucking
         | up the simple fact that the model is indeed getting right all
         | the problems that were supposed to indicate a lack of reasoning
         | as "not producing the same response verbatim" is ridiculous.
         | Did you even stop to think about what you just wrote ?
         | 
         | If you're so sure of GPT-4 failing a permutation of these
         | results then by all means demonstrate that.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | I'm addressing the comments in this thread, the dialectic is:
           | 
           | OP: Paper
           | 
           | Commenters: Reply to paper
           | 
           | Me: Reply to commenters
           | 
           | You'll notice a different burden in each case, since the
           | claim differs. My claim is that confirmation-bias replies to
           | this paper are (at best) poorly founded.
           | 
           | More broadly, the hypothesis that an LLM reasons is not
           | confirmed by an infinite number of correct replies to
           | prompts. It is immediately refuted by a systematic failure
           | across types of reasoning (NOT q/a instances).
           | 
           | What is my burden? As far as I can tell, only to provide what
           | I have.
        
             | hackinthebochs wrote:
             | >More broadly, the hypothesis that an LLM reasons is not
             | confirmed by an infinite number of correct replies to
             | prompts. It is immediately refuted by a systematic failure
             | across types of reasoning (NOT q/a instances).
             | 
             | The question of reasoning in LLMs isn't a question of
             | whether they employ sufficiently strong reasoning
             | capabilities in all instances, but whether it has the
             | capability of sufficiently strong reasoning. You can't
             | confirm general reasoning abilities with many instances of
             | correct responses, but you also can't disconfirm general
             | reasoning abilities through systematic failure unless you
             | have good reason to think it should have engaged those
             | reasoning abilities in the test context. We know that LLMs
             | selectively activate subnetworks based on the content of
             | the prompt. There should be no expectation of any
             | systematic reasoning abilities, but rather what are its
             | capacities in ideal contexts. LLMs are way too sensitive to
             | seemingly arbitrary features of context to rule out
             | capacities from even seemingly systematic failures.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | The two hypotheses are that:
               | 
               | 1) LLMs do not reason, they provide sequences of apparent
               | reasoned replies R1...n according to the freq
               | distribution given by P(R1|R2...Rn, TextCorpus)
               | 
               | 2) LLMs do reason: in cases where P(Premise|Conclusion,
               | Rule(Conclusion,Premise)) are 1 or 0 forall Rule in
               | {Rules of basic reasoning}, LLMs can reproduce this.
               | 
               | I think (2) is clearly false, and (1) clearly true. LLMs
               | never reason. They're always just sequences of
               | conditional selections of replies. These "follow from"
               | earlier replies just because of the frequency of their
               | coincidences.
               | 
               | "Reasoning" is a claim about the mechanism by which
               | replies are given. It is _not_ a claim about whether
               | those replies are correclty sequenced in some cases.
               | Obviously they are.
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | LLMs aren't simply modeling frequency distributions.
               | Self-attention essentially searches the space of circuits
               | to find which circuits help to model the training data.
               | This search process recovers the internal structure of
               | the training data that isn't captured by naive frequency
               | distribution models. The limit of arbitrarily complex
               | frequency distribution models, i.e. P(xN|x1...x(N-1)) for
               | large N is just memorizing the complete training data,
               | which we know LLMs aren't doing due to space limitations.
               | The abilities of LLMs aren't well explained by parroting
               | or modeling frequency distributions.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | It's necessarily modelling freq. distribution; I'm not
               | sure how you could think it's doing anything else. Self-
               | attention is just a frequency distribution over a freq
               | distribution.
               | 
               | It's literally trained with P(B|A) as the objective....
               | 
               | The 'circuits' you're talking about are just sequences of
               | `|`, ie., P(B|A1..|...n))
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | >Self-attention is just a frequency distribution over a
               | freq distribution.
               | 
               | I don't know where you get that. But it's not my
               | understanding.
               | 
               | >It's literally trained with P(B|A) as the objective....
               | 
               | This is a description of the objective, not a model or an
               | algorithm. The algorithm is not learning frequency data.
               | The algorithm tries to maximize P(B|A), but within this
               | constraint there are a vast range of algorithms.
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > the hypothesis that an LLM reasons
             | 
             | Isn't really a well-defined hypothesis, because "reasoning"
             | isn't well-enough defined for it to be one.
        
         | lewhoo wrote:
         | I was also taken by the capabilities of chatGPT but with time
         | and with people reporting how it sometimes fails with simple
         | tasks (even v4) I'm beginning to ascribe its superpowers a bit
         | more to the super impressive magnitude of its training data.
         | That isn't to say it can only somehow reflect the data, but
         | even Logan Kilpatrick who is an OpenAI employee said in a
         | youtube video somewhere that chatGPT absolutely can't reason
         | (though there wasn't much of a followup as I recall). I think
         | the problem is precisely as you state - there isn't a reliable
         | way to reproduce the findings because the findings were
         | produced with a bit of a dice roll, to put it simply. This also
         | happened which Chomsky when he weighed in on the subject and
         | some people pointed out his findings don't match theirs.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | The important thing for discussing this is that this kind of
           | reproduction is irrelevant.
           | 
           | Does homeopathy work? Well *I* went to a local hospital and
           | saw people recovering by drinking water and resting.
           | 
           | Well, yes, of course you did. That doesnt count as a reply.
           | It misses the claim.
           | 
           | The claim isnt that there _arent_ an infinite number of Q /A
           | prompts where A is correct. Of course there are, rather
           | trivially just from the nature of a generative model.
           | 
           | The claim is that the reason A is generated from Q is because
           | of the co-occurant frequency of Q,A in a corpus, and that
           | this is _not_ a model of eg., logical inference, causal
           | reasoning, abduction, etc.
           | 
           | It's trivial to show that with a handful of cases of failure.
           | Success is irrelevant, it always is.
           | 
           | These arent claims about the engineering rigour of chatgpt,
           | theyre claims about how it obtains A from Q.
           | 
           | Which, if the GPT had remembered all useful Q,As for all of
           | humanity so far, wouldn't be detectable by prompting. Indeed,
           | even if this is so, the reason we care is when there are
           | novel Qs.
           | 
           | Eg., "what is the local post office's telephone number?" isnt
           | answerable with all of human history up til 1900.
        
         | lukev wrote:
         | To paraphrase what you're saying: an AI can't reason, because
         | it is built to stochastically predicts tokens, which is not
         | reasoning and which is different from the activity of
         | reasoning.
         | 
         | Which I agree with.
         | 
         | But also, by observation, it can (at least some of the time)
         | emit token sequences that emulate reasoning (at least on some
         | simple tasks.)
         | 
         | So perhaps it can reason in the same way a submarine can swim.
        
           | hackinthebochs wrote:
           | >an AI can't reason, because it is built to stochastically
           | predicts tokens, which is not reasoning and which is
           | different from the activity of reasoning.
           | 
           | A feature indispensable in the generation of a sequence is
           | recovered in the limit of predicting the sequence. So
           | prediction does not exclude higher level cognitive processes.
           | Transformers being universal sequence2sequence modelers give
           | reason to believe they can reach the limit.
        
             | mjburgess wrote:
             | There are an infinite number of models which generate the
             | same exact (infinite) sequence.
             | 
             | No model is "recovered in the limit".
             | 
             | And, more severely, we're blind to the future. So of the
             | infinite models of all of history, we're not even
             | interested in the ones which are maximally retrospectively
             | predictive.
             | 
             | Almost all of those are maximally non-predictive of the
             | future, and indeed, much worse than the ones which fail to
             | predict the past well.
             | 
             | So your 'recovering in the limit' alas is a dangerous kind
             | of pseudoscience: fitting the past.
             | 
             | We want models which are wrong for the right reasons. Not
             | models which are right for the wrong ones.
             | 
             | The latter fail catastrophically.
             | 
             | The models we require enable us to simulate unrealised
             | futures; the causal, abductive models of science (, say).
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | >There are an infinite number of models which generate
               | the same exact (infinite) sequence.
               | 
               | Only if there is no constraint on the model. But the
               | fixed number of parameters, and the inductive bias of
               | attention limits the space of models that are learnable.
               | In the limit of infinite data but finite capacity for
               | memorization, the only available solution will be to
               | recover the information dynamic of the generating
               | process.
               | 
               | >So of the infinite models of all of history, we're not
               | even interested in the ones which are maximally
               | retrospectively predictive.
               | 
               | Presumably the same processes that operated in the past
               | will operate in the future. So accurately modelling the
               | past is certainly very informative for the future.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | > Only if there is no constraint on the model. But the
               | fixed number of parameters
               | 
               | Nope. cf. the under-determination of evidence by theory.
               | 
               | > So accurately modelling the past is certainly very
               | informative for the future.
               | 
               | Nope. cf. we don't have infinite measures on infinite
               | events in the past.
               | 
               | Consider that any given measure of an event, say M(E) is
               | really a measure of a near infinite number of causes, say
               | C1...n. Now, how many independent measures of these do we
               | have? A handful.
               | 
               | so we really have, M(E|Controlling(Handful C1..n)))
               | 
               | do we want to model _that_?!? No.. that 's insane. That's
               | superstition. That's what all of science stands
               | _against_.
               | 
               | Here's what we do: we _build_ models _not_ fit to any
               | data. We build models that can generate the data we
               | observe, but we build them by familiarity with reality *
               | _NOT*_ with the measures M.
               | 
               | How do we do that? Many ways, but the body is a key
               | component of the answer. We have practically certain
               | causal models of the body.                  ConceptCup =
               | MySensoryMotorActions(RealCups)        I_Touch =
               | MySensoryMotorActions(Me)
               | P(I_Touch_Cup|Cup_Exists, ConceptCut) ~= 1
               | P(I_Touch_Cup|-Cup_Exists, ConceptCup) ~= 0
               | 
               | by iterating through such sensory-motor actions we can
               | find concepts which produce these discrete splits. We
               | call these concepts 'objects'. And from these we assemble
               | models of reality whose _shadow_ is our measures.
               | 
               | We handle the cup, and by handling the cup can imagine
               | the cup, and by imagine the cup can generate measures of
               | the cup.
               | 
               | You cannot reverse from a shadow of a vase to the clay
               | vase itself: there are an infinite number, given
               | _abribtarily_ infinite parameters. The task is to find
               | the right parameterisation; not to suppose that any given
               | one has one solution (it doesnt, so a fool 's hope
               | anyway).
               | 
               | Such a condition is just a formalisation of supersition:
               | my model is decided by the data; my parameterisation is
               | 'free'. My model of the world is cooincidence.
               | 
               | Indeed, the truth is, in a sense, only a single
               | parameter.
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | >Nope. cf. the under-determination of evidence by theory.
               | 
               | You mean the underdetermination of theory by evidence?
               | This isn't really relevant. Given no prior information
               | and no constraints on the model, the theory is
               | underdetermined. But given some strong constraints, there
               | will be one model that best explains the data. Of course
               | a model can't deal with an arbitrary distribution shift,
               | but no one expects a model to be insensitive to a change
               | in the underlying data. The question is whether the
               | constraints of natural systems and an LLM with a given
               | inductive bias and finite capacity are sufficient
               | constraints. It's not totally clear that it is or isn't,
               | but this isn't decided by the underdetermination
               | principle.
               | 
               | >Nope. cf. we don't have infinite measures on infinite
               | events in the past.
               | 
               | I don't see how this is relevant to the point it is in
               | response to.
               | 
               | >Such a condition is just a formalisation of supersition:
               | my model is decided by the data; my parameterisation is
               | 'free'. My model of the world is cooincidence.
               | 
               | Everything is data in the end; your interactions with the
               | world by touch are just data. Our brains have an
               | inductive bias towards certain interpretations of certain
               | data, and these interpretations tend to promote
               | proliferation in organisms. But LLMs have an inductive
               | bias as well, one that allows them to search for circuits
               | that generate training data. LLMs tend to land on
               | interesting models that result in non-trivial
               | generalization abilities in some contexts. This ability
               | goes beyond just frequency modeling. Of course LLMs are
               | limited to what it can know of the world through its data
               | paradigm. But so are we. Such a limit in itself doesn't
               | imply an in principle limit to modeling/understanding in
               | LLMs.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | Our "brains" engage in abduction, never induction. And
               | the actions of our body under our will aren't "data".
               | 
               | P(SensationOfTouchingACup | MyConceptCup causes
               | HandMovement causes Sensation)
               | 
               |  _is not_ something with a statistical condition.
               | 
               | You're projecting statistics onto reality. Reality is a
               | place of necessity, not frequency. Our bodies place of
               | causes not consequences. Our interaction with the world
               | is a causal knowledge.
               | 
               | If everything were P(A|B) knowledge would be impossible.
               | Thankfully we're in the world and we know directly and
               | without inference: we move our hands according to a
               | technique and they so-move. Absent this direct,
               | immediate, causal, certain knowledge of our own bodies
               | --- there is no way of knowing anything.
               | 
               | All knowledge is a recursion from the certain causal
               | mechanism of the body: hands to tools, tools to models,
               | models to data; from data to refinement of models.
               | 
               | Otherwise all "knowledge" would be LLM-like, based merely
               | on pre-occurrent patterns of data. There would be no
               | imagination, no possibility, no necessity, no reason..
               | indeed, no knowledge.
               | 
               | The world painted by P(A|B,| stupid limited dumb measures
               | of the past) is a dark, dangerous and fickle one.
               | 
               | You should not wish to live there. It makes no sense, nor
               | could it. Thankfully, you're able to walk around; imagine
               | things that have never been; _actually_ learn; grow
               | (organically); adapt (physiologicall); develop skills
               | (sensory-motorily). So you arent so severly disabled you
               | 're reduced to replies which are maximially consistent
               | with what happens to be in alll ebooks ever written by
               | people who _could_ write them for the first time.
               | 
               | You arent so disabled that the very basis of writing is
               | precluded: direct access to the world.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | So what's happening is this: valid arguments have a structure
           | which can be modelled statistically.
           | 
           | But validity isn't a statistical notion: P(-A|A) is zero.
           | 
           | Since P(Premise|Contradiction) is frequently above zero in
           | LLMs they engage in _randomly_ "irrational" reasoning. That's
           | what makes them particularly unreliable.
           | 
           | The reason for any given P(premise|contradiction) having any
           | given freq is just that "its that freq in the corpus". This
           | is a pretty insane reason, and so incomprehensibly insane
           | that many -- i guess -- cannot fathom how an LLM can appear
           | to reason without being able to.
           | 
           | I suppose there's a sort of truman show effect: the reality
           | of the underlying mechanism is so outside anything most
           | people could analogise to, they fail to be able to see the
           | trick taking place.
           | 
           | People talk about "human failures" but we _never_ ascribe
           | confidences to propositions based on their frequency in a
           | text corpus; and the apparent  "Reasoning" which arises out
           | of this is incomprehensible.
           | 
           | That is without some systematic training in applied stats so
           | you can set up the model and reason about it regardless of
           | its outputs -- which are irrelevant to its mechanism
        
             | lukev wrote:
             | It's true. Validity isn't a statistical notion, and that's
             | why I agree with you that LLMs can't "reason" if we're
             | being precise with language. Just like they can't "know" or
             | "believe" or basically any other verb we use in
             | epistemology.
             | 
             | But the argument is that by dint of repetition, the models
             | actually encode some of the structure of basic logical
             | primitives: syllogisms, entailment, modus ponens/tollens,
             | etc.
             | 
             | This then _weights_ their output so that (for simple enough
             | stuff) they 're more likely to emit outputs that are
             | logically sound, than outputs that aren't logically sound.
             | Indeed, this has to be the case, or they couldn't maintain
             | any level of coherency in their output at all (which, like
             | it or not, they can.)
             | 
             | Like you, I'm not comfortable calling this reasoning. But
             | it's also something that is not 100% entirely _unlike_
             | reasoning, either, at least in terms of output.
        
               | mjburgess wrote:
               | The heart of science is distinguishing illusion from
               | reality: from measures of events from models of events.
               | Shadows from what casts them.
               | 
               | The spherical shadow of an object here alas, isnt caused
               | by a spherical object. It's a spikey deformed object
               | whose shadow is spherical with the right prompt. This is
               | easy to show.
               | 
               | Engineers are people who put on light shows. Engineers
               | make the magic lanterns --- theatres of people who
               | believe there's another world in front of them.
               | 
               | Scientists are interested in the quality of the film
               | grain. The spikiness of the suppose sphere. Or, the
               | failure of an LLM's ability to "reason"
        
       | detectivestory wrote:
       | I tried feeding it some lateral thinking games (black stories)
       | from https://detective-stories.com and it was surprisingly bad at
       | following the game.
       | 
       | I had hoped to implement the API as a bot player but I found it
       | to be too unreliable with its "understanding".
        
       | throwawaymaths wrote:
       | > blub is a forp and all forps are tworby. Is blub tworby or not?
       | 
       | GPT4:
       | 
       | Given the statements:                   Blub is a forp.
       | All forps are tworby.
       | 
       | From the second statement, it is clear that every entity that is
       | a forp is also tworby.
       | 
       | Thus, since Blub is a forp (from the first statement), Blub must
       | be tworby.
       | 
       | There are _humans_ that can 't do this. So even if it's just a
       | stochastic parrot, the stuff it's parroting does encode some
       | reasoning, so it would be strange if an arbitrarily powerful
       | parrot (not claiming that GPT-4 has reached that level) couldn't
       | pattern match its way to some common kernel of reasoning, small
       | as it may be.
        
         | bbwbsb wrote:
         | Well if that is the metric, then reasoning has long been
         | solved:                 GNU Prolog 1.5.0 (64 bits)
         | Compiled Jul  8 2021, 09:35:47 with gcc       Copyright (C)
         | 1999-2022 Daniel Diaz              | ?- [user].       compiling
         | user for byte code...       blub << forp.       forp << tworby.
         | Forp << tworby :- Forp << forp.              user compiled, 3
         | lines read - 401 bytes written, 6194 ms              yes
         | | ?- findall(X, X << tworby, X).              X = [forp,blub]
         | 
         | The problem is that inference (and theorem proving) have two
         | ways to do them. Either you memorize the reduction rules, or
         | you deal with the combinatorial explosion. The former is Prolog
         | and the latter is SAT/SMT solvers. People seem to expect that
         | neural networks predict what the result would be if inference
         | had been done - without actually doing the inference. It's
         | possible to exploit local features, but not to skip it entirely
         | in general. Note that inference can use a lot of memory/scratch
         | space also. At that point, why not just use an external tool?
         | I'd seem much smarter if I could query Prolog directly from my
         | brain. Hell I'd sell my left arm to be able to do that.
         | 
         | Also, note that those statements are not hygienic, and that it
         | assumes a certain logical interpretation of the sentences that
         | isn't universal. We can also ask annoying questions like: is
         | 'all' intensional or extensional? If I invented a new thing
         | called swerb, and swerb is a forp now. Is it retroactively a
         | tworby because the definition of being a forp means it is a
         | tworby, or is it just that at the point in time of the original
         | assertion all forps were tworbys (so the swerb wouldn't be)?
         | There are no good ways to resolve this without back and forth
         | and contextual guessing, or using formal languages.
         | 
         | Since there is no One True Logic, the common kernel of
         | reasoning might as well be computation itself.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | I think you're missing the point. Of course prolog can reason
           | better than humans, that's what it was designed to do
           | (deterministically).
           | 
           | The point is not to solve reasoning. The question is, can
           | LLMs reason?
           | 
           | LLMs were _not_ designed to reason, reasoning in an LLM is
           | emergent. That should be interesting.
           | 
           | It should also be _exciting_ because the domain over which
           | LLMs can reason is much more unbounded than the domain over
           | which prolog can reason (tokens and relationships you 've
           | already supplied it)
        
         | barrkel wrote:
         | I've had a computer in my home which can remember a million
         | random integers in order, and I've had one for decades. No
         | human can do this. Exceeding what humans can do is in no way
         | the bar for reasoning.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | of course not. But exceeding what humans can do _in terms of
           | reasoning_ is not an unreasonable bar for reasoning.
           | 
           | ---
           | 
           | > My friend Cathy is capable of memorizing really long lists
           | of random numbers. Does that mean she is good at reasoning?
           | 
           | The ability to memorize long lists of random numbers is a
           | specific cognitive skill related to memory. Cathy's ability
           | demonstrates an impressive short-term or working memory, and
           | perhaps also a good long-term memory if she can recall those
           | numbers over extended periods.
           | 
           | Reasoning, on the other hand, refers to the process of
           | forming conclusions, judgments, or inferences from facts or
           | premises. It's more about logical thinking, problem-solving,
           | and the ability to draw conclusions from information, rather
           | than rote memorization.
           | 
           | While a strong memory can be an asset in many reasoning tasks
           | (because it allows a person to quickly call upon relevant
           | information), it doesn't directly indicate one's reasoning
           | abilities. In other words, just because Cathy is excellent at
           | memorizing numbers doesn't necessarily mean she's also good
           | at reasoning. However, it also doesn't mean she isn't. The
           | two skills can be related in some contexts, but they're not
           | the same thing.
           | 
           | If you wanted to evaluate Cathy's reasoning skills, you'd
           | need to look at her performance in tasks that require logical
           | thinking, problem-solving, and other related abilities,
           | rather than her memory capabilities.
           | 
           | > Cathy appears to be better at reasoning that a random
           | internet commenter 'barkel'. Does that mean Cathy is good at
           | reasoning?
           | 
           | Making comparisons between two individuals, Cathy and
           | "barkel" in this case, doesn't provide an absolute measure of
           | either person's reasoning abilities. If Cathy appears to be
           | better at reasoning than barkel based on specific
           | interactions or examples, it simply means she displayed
           | better reasoning skills in those instances compared to
           | barkel.
           | 
           | To truly determine if Cathy is "good" at reasoning, you'd
           | need a more comprehensive evaluation of her reasoning
           | abilities across various situations and challenges. Comparing
           | her skills to one other individual doesn't provide a full
           | perspective on her overall capabilities.
           | 
           | Remember, reasoning abilities can vary based on the subject
           | matter, context, emotional state, and many other factors. So,
           | while Cathy might be more effective in certain situations or
           | on certain topics, it doesn't necessarily make her
           | universally better at reasoning.
           | 
           | For an objective assessment of Cathy's reasoning skills,
           | you'd need more consistent and broad-based evidence or
           | testing, rather than a comparison with a single individual on
           | the internet.
           | 
           | > If cathy is better than the median person at reasoning, is
           | she good at reasoning?
           | 
           | If Cathy is better than the median person at reasoning, it
           | means she scores higher than at least 50% of a given
           | population in reasoning skills. In a relative sense, this
           | would suggest that she is above average compared to that
           | particular population.
           | 
           | However, the term "good" is somewhat subjective. In this
           | context, being above the median does suggest that Cathy has a
           | higher than average ability in reasoning. But whether that
           | qualifies as "good" is a matter of perspective and can depend
           | on the standards or benchmarks you're using.
           | 
           | If you're evaluating her skills based on general societal
           | expectations, then yes, being above the median would likely
           | be considered "good." However, if you're comparing her to a
           | group of expert logicians or professional problem solvers,
           | the standards might be different.
           | 
           | In summary, Cathy being better than the median person in
           | reasoning suggests she has above-average skills in that area,
           | but whether that is deemed "good" can depend on the context
           | and standards you're applying.
        
             | freejazz wrote:
             | >of course not. But exceeding what humans can do in terms
             | of reasoning is not an unreasonable bar for reasoning.
             | 
             | It isn't, because you presuppose it reasons
        
               | throwawaymaths wrote:
               | You're projecting.
               | 
               | That "it doesn't reason" in your meaning seems to depends
               | on unknowable suppositions that are a quasi-metaphysical
               | characterisation of the process of reasoning.
               | 
               | I'm defining reasoning from a set of observable outputs.
               | The Chinese room isn't a thing.
        
         | throwanem wrote:
         | There are humans who can't add two four-digit numbers without
         | scratch paper, too. So what?
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | So what? In your context, you would say "computers can math
           | better than humans". I think that's uncontroversial.
           | 
           | Crazy thing is, your difficulty with this syllogism proves my
           | point about the median human.
        
             | throwanem wrote:
             | Whatever their capacity for reason or lack thereof, I'll
             | give LLMs this: I've never yet seen one resort to ad
             | hominem for the lack of any more substantive
             | counterargument.
        
           | vikramkr wrote:
           | Think about how dramatic a change it was when computers
           | started being able to efficiently add those numbers and got
           | better than them. Now no matter what the human's capacity a
           | huge number of them have a computer in their pocket that can
           | fill in the gaps. And that change was wildly disruptive. Same
           | as when machines started to do tasks that humans couldn't.
           | Any time a relatively accessible technology overtakes humans
           | in a thing that used to be human-only and is important to
           | civilization it's been highly disruptive. If gpt's reasoning
           | is good enough to replace like, the lowest level of phone
           | tech support or the like, that's already jobs that'll be
           | lost.
        
             | throwanem wrote:
             | That "if" is doing a lot of legwork here. Most notably,
             | it's concealing an implication that the LLM may _be_
             | reasoning in this example, and not merely fitting tokens
             | from its input into a statistical reconstruction of the
             | most basic and thus likely most commonly encountered proof
             | in elementary symbolic logic.
             | 
             | That said, you're not wrong that this _seems_ "good enough"
             | to be wildly disruptive. Part of that disruption, which is
             | already ongoing, is the development of a whole new class of
             | exploits. I expect once companies start firing phone
             | support representatives in favor of LLMs, and similar, this
             | process will accelerate in fascinating ways.
        
           | jovial_cavalier wrote:
           | I think GP's point is that you can reach something
           | approximating reasoning by brute force.
           | 
           | In the case of your example, you don't need to encode an
           | algorithm to do 4-digit addition, just remember that
           | 1000+1000=2000, 1000+1001=2001, etc.
        
           | bruce343434 wrote:
           | So what not? This is still incredibly impressive technology.
        
             | throwanem wrote:
             | Yes, and it's incumbent upon us all not to let first
             | impressions run away with us to the extent of making
             | unsupportable claims, even by implication.
        
               | bruce343434 wrote:
               | I'm sick and tired of the generally dismissive attitude
               | towards these LLMs. They're no messiah, but they're for
               | sure not useless.
        
               | throwanem wrote:
               | I think you must have meant to reply to someone else,
               | since I haven't written off LLMs as useless here or
               | indeed, to the best of my recollection, anywhere.
               | 
               | That said, I suspect dismissive attitudes toward LLMs
               | would be less common if messianic claims on their behalf
               | were likewise.
        
         | adamsmith143 wrote:
         | The probability that a Stochastic Parrot returns coherent
         | reasoning seems vanishingly small.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | why do you say that? You don't think stochastic pattern
           | matching can feature reasoning as an emergent property? I do.
           | 
           | A stochastic parrot doesn't just mimic things totally
           | randomly. It reinforces what it's seen.
        
             | Chabsff wrote:
             | I keep getting surprised at how a large chunk of HN's
             | demographic seemingly struggles with the simple notion that
             | a black box's interface informs surprisingly little about
             | its content.
             | 
             | I'm not saying that GPT-4 is reasoning or not, just that
             | discounting the possibility solely based on it interfacing
             | to the world via a stochastic parrot makes no sense to me.
        
               | fasterik wrote:
               | Isn't "reasoning" a functional property though? If from
               | the outside it performs all the functions of reasoning,
               | it doesn't matter what is happening inside of the black
               | box.
               | 
               | Here's a silly example I thought of. We can ask whether a
               | certain bird is capable of "sorting". We can place
               | objects of different sizes in front of the bird, and we
               | observe that the bird can rearrange them in order of
               | increasing size. Does it matter what internal heuristics
               | or processes the bird is using? If it sorts the objects,
               | it is "sorting".
               | 
               | To me, it seems perfectly obvious that GPT-4 is
               | reasoning. It's not very good at it and it frequently
               | makes mistakes. But it's also frequently able to make
               | correct logical deductions. To me this is all stupid
               | semantic games and goalpost-moving.
        
               | Chabsff wrote:
               | > Isn't "reasoning" a functional property though? If from
               | the outside it performs all the functions of reasoning,
               | it doesn't matter what is happening inside of the black
               | box.
               | 
               | Yes, that's my point exactly.
        
           | antonvs wrote:
           | Are you saying that GPT is not a stochastic parrot, or that
           | GPT is not returning coherent reasoning?
           | 
           | Because if it's the latter, the evidence is rather against
           | you. People seem to like to cherry-pick examples of where GPT
           | gets reasoning wrong, but it's getting it right enough
           | millions of times a day that people keep using it.
           | 
           | And it's not as if humans don't get reasoning wrong. In fact
           | the humans who say GPT can't reason are demonstrating that.
        
         | Whatboard wrote:
         | This is a critical take. LLMs do not need to match human
         | reasoning by some arbitrary standard to displace millions of
         | workers whose speed and/or effectiveness of reasoning is weak
         | or inconsistent.
        
         | cratermoon wrote:
         | Substituting Blub for Socrates, forp for man, and tworby for
         | mortal is filling in a Mad Lib pattern with made-up words, not
         | reasoning.
        
       | xianshou wrote:
       | Chiming in to confirm that I've tried several of the prompts
       | verbatim and obtained perfectly good answers with sound reasoning
       | from GPT-4. If I add any chain-of-thought markers such as "reason
       | step by step and state your assumptions," response quality
       | further increases. Assuming the author is reporting honestly (and
       | did not, for instance, repeat queries with high temp until
       | getting a bad response), this must have been an extremely unlucky
       | run.
        
       | lowbloodsugar wrote:
       | If reasoning is logical deduction, where one can make a series of
       | claims:
       | 
       | a implies b
       | 
       | b implies c
       | 
       | c implies d
       | 
       | then a implies d
       | 
       | then it seems that these machine learning algorithms, that
       | predict tokens based on prior tokens, should be entirely capable
       | of reasoning. No?
        
       | black_13 wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | jmmcd wrote:
       | > it is not accurate to say without qualification that "humans
       | can reason," certainly not in the sense that we can randomly
       | pluck any person from the street and expect them to reliably
       | perform normatively correct reasoning
       | 
       | > Reasoning is not quite the same thing as intelligence, but it's
       | a necessary ingredient for it
       | 
       | According to this, a typical human on the street is not
       | (reliably) intelligent.
        
       | ynniv wrote:
       | In fact, in the general case (first-order or higher-order logic),
       | it is algorithmically undecidable, i.e., every bit as unsolvable
       | as the halting problem. Thus, by Church's thesis, we cannot
       | expect any algorithm, LLMs included, to solve arbitrary reasoning
       | problems in a sound and complete way.
       | 
       | How can I read farther than this? Before the end of the first
       | paragraph the author has declared that rationality requires
       | something supernatural.
        
         | Smaug123 wrote:
         | In fairness, further on in the paper, the author does note that
         | the quoted extract is irrelevant, by saying "we need not aim
         | for an oracle anyway. Humans are not oracles either..."
        
           | ynniv wrote:
           | It doesn't surprise me that he walks back this opening
           | statement, but it reveals how his exploration is biased.
        
             | layer8 wrote:
             | I read the opening statement as an acknowledgment of how
             | the expectations should not be limitless anyway.
        
       | melenaboija wrote:
       | Because of a conversation in HN a few weeks ago, I tried to play
       | a board game agains ChatGPT that I had created and it was an
       | absolute disaster [1]. I would have expected the model to at
       | least understand the game rules, but not even that.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://joseprupi.github.io/misc/2023/06/08/chat_gpt_board_g...
        
       | froggertoaster wrote:
       | Ok, and? Of course it can't reason - it's a prediction model
       | that's really, really good at its job (at least around 80% of the
       | time). But it's still incredibly useful.
        
       | bestcoder69 wrote:
       | I'm wondering if this was all in a single ChatGPT session where
       | GPT-4 happened to answer the first question wrong. This could
       | bias future outputs towards being wrong as well, and could
       | explain the huge difference between OP's results and commenters,
       | maybe?
        
       | sdenton4 wrote:
       | Arithmetic problems have nothing to do with reasoning, and are a
       | known weakness due to the tokenization schemes in these models.
       | 
       | Secondly, finding failure modes doesn't mean that the model
       | doesn't have any reasoning ability. Humans can reason, despite
       | the fact that high school students are pretty bad at formal
       | logic.
       | 
       | So, the conclusion is over broad, and the paper fails to
       | incorporate existing knowledge about these models. Kinda crap.
        
         | astrobe_ wrote:
         | > Arithmetic problems have nothing to do with reasoning
         | 
         | Then try to introduce GPT-4 to Peano's axiom and try to make it
         | "understand" arithmetic that way? Oh, wait, it could already
         | lecture you about it.
        
         | TheRealNGenius wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | cmrdporcupine wrote:
         | That's remarkably dismissive. He addresses your argument right
         | away in the paper, and in multiple places? Did you read it?
         | 
         | It's not about testing the ability to do arithmetic. It's
         | testing the ability to plan a reasoning process / argument.
         | 
         | It's also not the sum of his paper, only one section.
         | 
         | The problem is not that GPT-4 can't to the math problems, it's
         | that it can't reason out how it would begin approach doing a
         | math problem -- it would be totally okay for it to get them
         | wrong, if it was actually making an _attempt_ and could show
         | evidence of working through them,.
         | 
         | Instead it just produces "answers" which are a statistical
         | guess based on other things it has seen on the internet. It's
         | true humans do this, too -- often a first lazy approximation
         | for a problem -- but the key difference is a human _can_ reason
         | out, through interrogation and introspection where it might
         | have gone wrong. GPT-4 appears to be unable to do that.
         | 
         | And worse, my experience with these systems (and the paper's)
         | is that during dialogue about errors they actually rapidly
         | degrade in quality of answer.
         | 
         | I'm probably as bad as a high school student at formal logic,
         | too. But if you sit down with me with a problem and we talk
         | about it, and I'm interested, it will become evident I am
         | capable of reasoning through it, even if I make mistakes.
         | That's not the case with GPT-4.
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | This paper is not even reproducible lol. It makes a
           | nonsensical claim it can't even back with results. Look at
           | multiple comments here actually trying them out.
        
           | roywiggins wrote:
           | It does state: "The ability to perform basic arithmetic is a
           | necessary ingredient for reasoning." which doesn't seem
           | obvious to me at all.
        
             | akomtu wrote:
             | A langugage model sees a pile of examples with digits and
             | imitates those examples. A reasoning model sees the inner
             | principle behind this pile, and instead of imitating
             | examples, it uses the learnt principle to produce answers.
        
               | antonvs wrote:
               | How do you know this? What's an example of a "reasoning
               | model"?
               | 
               | If the only example is the human mind, for all we know
               | our reasoning capability and ability to discern
               | principles could work much the same way, and it's just
               | some more subtle differences that lead to the differences
               | in capabilities. There are plenty of cases where it
               | _appears_ as though GPT has discerned the  "inner
               | principle" behind something to produce answers.
        
               | niam wrote:
               | Language models aren't really optimized for imitation
               | though, they're optimized to _predict_. One _means_ of
               | prediction, which models have found to be effective in
               | many contexts (especially when short on training time
               | /compute), is comparable to imitation.
               | 
               | But this isn't to say that language models are
               | _incapable_ of establishing  "inner principles".
        
             | cmrdporcupine wrote:
             | I read that as _perform_ not _get the right answer_.
             | 
             | Performing arithmetic is one kind of reasoning process. But
             | getting the answers right is not necessarily the same as
             | performing.
             | 
             | If you go on to read, what he's trying to test is the
             | system's ability to even attempt to plan out a problem
             | solving "route". Which it doesn't really do. If it could,
             | it could defer to another system (fancy calculators or
             | solvers) to do the work. But its lack of ability to reason
             | means it can't even be made to do that.
             | 
             | (EDIT: I do think the paper would be stronger if he put the
             | math and formal logic etc problems later. E.g. the problem
             | he puts forward in 3.14, 3.15 etc is more immediately
             | damning as it reflects the "kind" of daily life reasoning
             | that people would expect these systems to be able to
             | perform.)
        
           | falcolas wrote:
           | > Instead it just produces "answers" which are a statistical
           | guess based on other things it has seen on the internet.
           | 
           | It boggles my mind that folks expect otherwise from a Machine
           | Learning tool, no matter how advanced and stuffed with data
           | it may be. Perhaps it's the same phenomenon that causes us
           | humans to see faces in clouds, smiles on dogs, and Jesus'
           | likeness on toast?
        
             | freejazz wrote:
             | Why would it boggle your mind? This thread is full of AI
             | proponents insisting that GPT reasons
        
             | cratermoon wrote:
             | Somewhere I definitely read about how human psychology
             | makes us prone to that sort of thing. Even as for back as
             | Eliza, cognitive scientists were commenting on how our
             | thinking can be fooled.
        
             | cmrdporcupine wrote:
             | I think there's an ideological bias in our culture that
             | pushes people to believe that intelligent or structured
             | phenomenon inevitably emerge organically and progressively
             | from complex phenomena.
             | 
             | Teleological thinking -- a kind of imagining of purpose and
             | cause from chaotic/natural events and entities -- riddles
             | popular thinking, especially from people in our profession.
             | Science fiction is especially full of it.
             | 
             | It's not just restricted to this domain at all. IMHO
             | similar bias underlies thinking around economics and the
             | magical hand of the free market economy.
             | 
             | Its also a bias evident in the way some people talk about
             | nature, gardening, etc. E.g. permaculture / natural farming
             | people show it all the time.
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | > I think there's an ideological bias in our culture that
               | pushes people to believe that intelligent or structured
               | phenomenon inevitably emerge organically and
               | progressively from complex phenomena.
               | 
               | All science points to this being the case, for us. I
               | think the only ones opposed are those that believe in
               | young earth creationism, and only some portion of those
               | that believe in old earth creationism.
        
           | sdenton4 wrote:
           | What can I say, we've seen a piiiile of lazy dismissals of
           | LLM work based on examples from arithmetic and string
           | manipulation. They aren't novel or interesting.
        
           | kordlessagain wrote:
           | > GPT-4 Can't Reason
           | 
           | This is absolutely dismissive of the claim to an advanced LLM
           | being capable of "reasoning", or the action of thinking about
           | something in a logical, sensible way.
           | 
           |  _That_ is the sum of the paper. Further, the author even
           | goes on to say that if they asked a human these questions,
           | they would conclude the same:
           | 
           | > Of course, even sophisticated human reasoners make
           | mistakes, just like trained singers can hit false notes. But
           | if a human made these mistakes, the ones reported in this
           | article, then I would conclude without any hesitation that
           | they cannot reason. Even if they went on to list a large
           | number of other examples demonstrating impeccable reasoning,
           | I would suspect that other factors (such as rote memorization
           | or cheating) were behind the performance discrepancy.
           | 
           | So the author admits their own biases, which are used to
           | bolster the argument that, if reasoning appears to be lacking
           | in an answer, the system or entity itself is absolutely
           | incapable of any reasoning and something else must explain
           | why it appears to be reasoning in the first place. That's a
           | VERY convenient way of dismissing any evidence that counters
           | the claim.
           | 
           | > The problem is not that GPT-4 can't to the math problems
           | 
           | The problem is the system was not allowed or provided a path
           | to generate a means to arrive at answering the math problem
           | using a language that is better suited to answering
           | analytical questions: code. That the author "denied" the LLM
           | the ability to write code is the issue here, not the model's
           | interface limitations. An analogy would be that if a user is
           | using English and asks a question that requires using Pali,
           | that the LLM would be "prevented" from answering in Pali
           | unless the user said it could understand it. In the same
           | vein, it doesn't make sense to, by default, output Python if
           | the system is unsure if the user understands or knows how to
           | run Python or not.
           | 
           | If you say "I understand Python. Select two random numbers
           | between 1381 and 1453 and multiply them together, reporting
           | the result." the LLM will be capable of answering this
           | question by generating code to solve the problem. This is
           | likely to work every single time any type of question like
           | this is asked, but it does require the user "run" the code.
           | 
           | GPT-4 has the ability to do this with code interpreter, so
           | the question is formed "why did OpenAI choose to allow the
           | user to explicitly indicate code can be written?" The answer
           | likely lies in understanding not everyone can interpret or
           | understand Python, a coding language, and therefore it
           | remains an OPTION for the user to choose first. By not
           | allowing the LLM to show the answers to analytical questions
           | in code, the author "blocks" the LLM's ability to show off
           | reasoning. And by stating that failures constitute a
           | "proving" of the non-reasoning, the author gets what they
           | want.
           | 
           | From a scientific standpoint, a good hypothesis must be
           | formed that can be disproven, as related to reasoning
           | ability. If any experiment is run that is based on a
           | hypothesis that is absolute (this thing can't reason) then
           | the results are not scientific, but instead _opinion_.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | My recollection of calculus disagrees with your initial
         | proposition. When the algorithm pool grows wide enough you have
         | to apply reason to pick the correct strategy.
        
         | nwoli wrote:
         | It would be interesting to measure humans vs these scores as
         | well. I can fail arithmetic pretty often too does that mean I'm
         | non human or can't reason?
        
       | lordnacho wrote:
       | I think we have to see LLMs as their own weird thing, whose
       | capabilities are only just being seen now.
       | 
       | For a lot of the time, ChatGPT does actually act like it can
       | reason. Going through a bag of data and answering a question you
       | hadn't heard before is reasoning. For instance right now, I've
       | been asking it how to move a postgres database from one machine
       | to another, and it gave a coherent answer that works.
       | 
       | Of course it's true that this information was on the internet in
       | various forms already, but if you gave this task to a junior dev
       | and asked him to figure it out, you wouldn't say the kid couldn't
       | reason, would you? Even if it was slightly wrong, it wouldn't
       | cross your mind that he hadn't substantially understood the task
       | and made progress on it.
       | 
       | OTOH, there are cases when the LLM just doesn't get it. Most
       | commonly with images, eg the famous hands problem. Somehow even
       | after looking at countless images with hands in them and having
       | access to countless anatomy books, it doesn't know what shape a
       | hand can take and what shapes it can't take. It seems to not have
       | a model of _why_ hands can be these different shapes but not
       | those different shapes.
       | 
       | Perhaps this is do with LLMs being particularly good at text, I
       | wouldn't know. It does seem to me like I've never seen it give a
       | grammatically incorrect answer to anything, ever. Even when it
       | answers something gibberish, it answers it in correct English.
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | >I think we have to see LLMs as their own weird thing
         | 
         | Well nobody seems to be able to reproduce the results of this
         | "paper" anyway lol but i agree with you here. LLMs are sure to
         | have weird failure modes even if they are "truly reasoning"
         | just like biological systems often have weird failure modes
         | that only make sense in the context of biology.
        
       | hinkley wrote:
       | "GPT-4 is just 9 GPT-3's in a trench coat"
        
       | cs702 wrote:
       | UPDATE: Some commenters elsewhere on this thread are not able to
       | replicate the paper's results.
       | 
       | For example, see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37051450
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | MY ORIGINAL COMMENT:
       | 
       | Based on a quick read, this looks like _great work_. The author,
       | Konstantine Arkoudas (KA), evaluates GPT-4 on a collection of 21
       | different types of reasoning problems and performs a detailed
       | qualitative analysis of GPT-4's performance on these problems.
       | GPT-4 fails to reason in all of them.
       | 
       | Here's a sample question from one of the 21 types of problems.
       | This particular question tests GPT-4's ability to reason and
       | reach conclusions from (a) the given context and (b) unstated
       | premises that constitute tacit, generally accepted background
       | knowledge (a person is alive until they die, after which they do
       | not become alive again):
       | 
       |  _> KA: Mable's heart rate at 9 AM was 75 bpm and her blood
       | pressure at 7 PM was 120 /80. She died at 11 PM. Was she alive at
       | noon?
       | 
       | > GPT-4: Based on the information provided, it's impossible to
       | definitively say whether Mable was alive at noon. The data points
       | provided (heart rate at 9 AM and blood pressure at 7 PM) both
       | indicate that she was alive at those times. However, without
       | additional information about her condition between 7 PM and 11
       | PM, or at noon specifically, we can't make a certain
       | determination about her status at noon. Remember, medical
       | information can be complex and nuanced. Understanding a person's
       | health status often requires a comprehensive examination and
       | should be performed by a healthcare professional. If this is a
       | hypothetical question, keep in mind that real-life situations
       | would require more complete information._
       | 
       | In my view, all of us in the AI research community should adopt
       | the 21 types of reasoning problems proposed by Arkoudas, and make
       | them part of the standard test suite for measuring LLM
       | performance. _We ought to use tests that are hard to pass._ I
       | suggest we call the proposed problems the Arkoudas Reasoning
       | Test.
        
         | turkeygizzard wrote:
         | I haven't read the paper beyond this one section - but I
         | plugged this question into GPT-4 and got a similar response.
         | However, if I used military time (replacing noon with 12:00 as
         | well), then GPT does get it right. Granted, it still hedges
         | much more than any normal person would. But basically I wonder
         | if it's struggling especially with the 12-hour clock concept
        
         | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
         | >> I suggest we call the proposed problems the Arkoudas
         | Reasoning Test.
         | 
         | Please don't. In Greek that's "The Bear-man Reasoning Test"
         | ("Arkoudas" is the man who has something to do with bears, in
         | Greek).
        
         | Rapzid wrote:
         | Couldn't she have been dead at noon in the colloquial sense and
         | then resuscitated at 12:01? I can't tell if that defense is
         | being pedantic, or criticizing its answer is being pedantic.
         | 
         | Maybe both.
         | 
         | Also, I hate how GPT always offers its unsolicited opinions and
         | advice when answering questions:
         | 
         | > Remember, medical information can be complex and nuanced.
         | Understanding a person's health status often requires a
         | comprehensive examination and should be performed by a
         | healthcare professional.
        
           | falcrist wrote:
           | That's not unsolicited advice from GPT so much as it's a
           | mandated CYA disclaimer from OpenAI.
        
             | Rapzid wrote:
             | Perhaps in this case of medical questions, but GitHub
             | Copilot Chat will start ai-splaining code readability when
             | you ask it questions about concise syntax so.. It's a total
             | mansplainer.
        
           | quijoteuniv wrote:
           | I got used to not reading the last paragraph of the answer
           | already
        
           | sheepscreek wrote:
           | My first thought was - what you mean by alive? A person can
           | be brain dead. And alive (with vitals) at the same time. With
           | some assumptions, one can say she was alive at noon.
           | 
           | However, I believe OpenAI has added significant safeguards to
           | prevent any such assumption, to the point where GPT-4 isn't
           | very useful at times.
           | 
           | This may be fixable with prompt engineering if it can be
           | persuaded to let it's guard down a bit.
        
           | benjaminl wrote:
           | GPT-4 gave me a concise correct answer without disclaimers.
           | 
           | This may be due to using many custom instructions like the
           | following in ChatGPT settings:
           | 
           | - No need to provide disclaimers about your knowledge cutoff
           | 
           | - No need to mention you are an AI language model
           | 
           | - Only discuss safety when it is not obvious and very
           | important
           | 
           | - You should act as an expert in the relevant fields
        
             | Terretta wrote:
             | These are excellent, although for instructions I've had
             | issues with compound negatives (e.g. "no need") and better
             | luck with single word affirmative imperatives (e.g.
             | "avoid").
        
         | gs17 wrote:
         | ChatGPT answered fine the first try for me:
         | 
         | > Mable's heart rate and blood pressure were recorded at 9 AM
         | and 7 PM, respectively. Since she died at 11 PM, it can be
         | assumed that she was alive at noon, as there is no information
         | suggesting otherwise between the time of the recorded
         | measurements and her time of death.
         | 
         | I was all ready to experiment with 24 hour time, times with
         | dates, etc, but it didn't actually fail.
        
         | adamgordonbell wrote:
         | GPT-4 Gives an answer first try:
         | 
         | > Based on the information provided:
         | 
         | > Mable had a heart rate of 75 bpm at 9 AM. > Mable had a blood
         | pressure reading of 120/80 at 7 PM. > These are both indicators
         | of life. The heart rate shows that her heart was beating, and
         | the blood pressure reading indicates her circulatory system was
         | functioning. Since she died at 11 PM, it's very likely that she
         | was alive at noon.
         | 
         | > So, my best guess based on the given data is: Yes, Mable was
         | alive at noon.
         | 
         | And using chain of thought, asking to think it out, I'm sure it
         | could get much trickier reasoning done.
         | 
         | For time based questions, you could also ask it to build a
         | timeline first, and then answer the question. For more generic
         | question types, you could ask it to first list out the
         | important facts and how they might be relevant and then ask it
         | to answer the question.
        
           | ChatGTP wrote:
           | _And using chain of thought, asking to think it out, I 'm
           | sure it could get much trickier reasoning done._
           | 
           | When I read comments like this I just translate it too, "I
           | could coax an answer I like better out of it"
           | 
           | Doesn't really sound like the system is reasoning but you
           | are.
        
         | swyx wrote:
         | > In my view, all of us in the AI research community should
         | adopt the 21 types of reasoning problems proposed by Arkoudas,
         | and make them part of the standard test suite for measuring LLM
         | performance. We ought to use tests that are hard to pass. I
         | suggest we call the proposed problems the Arkoudas Reasoning
         | Test.
         | 
         | this is overly obsequious. many of the categories are covered
         | by MMLU, BigBench, HellaSwag, et al, all of which the author
         | does not acknowledge.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | ChatGPT in general seems to have trouble with time-based
         | reasoning. In several conversations I had, while it understood
         | that dates are ordered and that events are ordered, and that
         | events are associated with dates, it did not understand that
         | the two orders have to be consistent with each other via that
         | association. Given certain constraints on the order of the
         | dates (or times of day), it was not able to apply that
         | information to correctly infer constraints on the order
         | ("before"/"after") of the associated events.
        
           | cs702 wrote:
           | ...And that's only _one example_ of a reasoning test, out of
           | 21 different types of reasoning tests.
           | 
           | The other tests have nothing to do with time.
        
             | layer8 wrote:
             | I was reporting my experience to give more detail to the
             | argument. I agree with the paper.
        
               | cs702 wrote:
               | Ah, I see what you mean. Thank you for sharing and for
               | clarifying!
        
         | Aunche wrote:
         | >Based on the information provided, it's impossible to
         | definitively say whether Mable was alive at noon. The data
         | points provided (heart rate at 9 AM and blood pressure at 7 PM)
         | both indicate that she was alive at those times. However,
         | without additional information about her condition between 7 PM
         | and 11 PM, or at noon specifically, we can't make a certain
         | determination about her status at noon. Remember, medical
         | information can be complex and nuanced. Understanding a
         | person's health status often requires a comprehensive
         | examination and should be performed by a healthcare
         | professional. If this is a hypothetical question, keep in mind
         | that real-life situations would require more complete
         | information.
         | 
         | It sounds like this answer is a victim of aggressive alignment
         | telling ChatGPT not to give medical advice. Even so, it
         | answered correctly for me:
         | 
         | > Based on the information provided, Mable's heart rate was
         | recorded at 9 AM, and her blood pressure was recorded at 7 PM.
         | This indicates she was alive at both of these times. While we
         | know she died at 11 PM, there's no indication of her status at
         | noon specifically. However, since she was alive before and
         | after noon, it's logical to infer that she was also alive at
         | noon.
         | 
         | Edit: I also gave it a similar question with sourdough starters
         | producing CO2 and dates in case that question just got trained
         | for, and it still answered correctly.
        
         | blastbking wrote:
         | Actually, technically, it's possible that she was dead in the
         | sense that her heart stopped at 11:59AM, and then she was
         | revived via CPR. So maybe GPT4 is right here :)
        
       | LordHumungous wrote:
       | How do you pass the bar exam without the ability to reason?
        
         | code_duck wrote:
         | I presume by using training data of similar questions like Mad
         | Libs.
        
         | qbasic_forever wrote:
         | You're trained on a massive dataset that includes tens of
         | thousands of practice exams with nearly the exact same
         | questions and answers, just slightly different words/template
         | to adjust for your answer.
        
         | fluoridation wrote:
         | Exam are designed to filter out entities that are already
         | assumed to be able to reason based on their knowledge of some
         | specific domain. A hypothetical entity with no ability to
         | reason but great ability to remember facts and able to pass an
         | exam, is conceivable.
        
         | ddtaylor wrote:
         | By remembering a lot of case law.
        
         | 1970-01-01 wrote:
         | The MBE exam is mostly multiple choice elimination, and these
         | multiple choices are filled with legal jargon and case law.
         | GPT-4 picks the best predicted answer and can mimic reasons for
         | the choice. This ability to mimic reasoning is good enough to
         | receive a passing score on the MBE and many other exams.
        
       | password54321 wrote:
       | We have supervised learning methods to be able to map images to
       | words, and attention networks to learn the relationship between
       | words to formulate coherent sentences. I would like to see an
       | agent that utilises both to be able to communicate with other
       | agents to navigate in a small simulation with a given objective.
        
       | cmrdporcupine wrote:
       | I'm not an expert in this field, and I'm ust partway through this
       | paper, I'm already impressed. Very well written and argued.
       | 
       | A good antidote to the "Sparks of Artifical General Intelligence"
       | paper that was making the rounds and getting headlines, which was
       | I think really a press release masquerading as a paper.
       | 
       | Love it: _" if a human made these mistakes, the ones reported in
       | this article, then I would conclude without any hesitation that
       | they cannot reason_"
        
       | killerstorm wrote:
       | We know that formal logic can be based on a small number of
       | fundamental rules. Same with computation (lamda calculus, Turing
       | machines, ...), mathematics (axioms), etc.
       | 
       | We know that theorems can be proven using a combination of
       | search, rule application and heuristics. E.g. back in 1950s,
       | Logic Theorist (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logic_Theorist)
       | proved 38 of the first 52 theorems in chapter two of Whitehead
       | and Russell's Principia Mathematica, and found new and shorter
       | proofs for some of them.
       | 
       | We know that language models are good at transforming text, e.g.
       | they can convert a sentence in English to Python code.
       | 
       | We know that language models have only a fixed computing budget
       | per token, i.e. they cannot stop to think.
       | 
       | We know that logic puzzles and proofs might require a
       | considerable amount of computations, e.g. to search through a
       | tree of possibilities, backtrack and so on.
       | 
       | If we believe that reasoning is kinda like logic, we'll be better
       | off using LLM to translate reasoning tasks into computing task to
       | be solved by specialized computing tools (such as Python
       | interpreter or theorem prover or SAT solver) instead of asking
       | LLM to reason directly.
       | 
       | Of course, GPT-4 is trained to be over-confident in its reasoning
       | capability, and it will try to reply immediately, essentially
       | just guessing the answer, and quite often it would fail. But the
       | question "Can GPT-4 reason with the default assistant prompt?" is
       | different from "Can GPT-4 reason?".
       | 
       | Even without external tool, we can ask GPT-4 to translate the
       | problem into primitive fragments in excruciating detail, and to
       | consider all possibilities, and it might work much better than
       | the default prompt.
       | 
       | Given that GPT-4 is essentially just weights, I'd consider "Can
       | GPT-4 reason?" question be more like "Is there a prompt X such
       | that being prepended to reasoning tasks it produces correct
       | answers?", not "If I enter my question into a box, does it give
       | the right answer?". So this paper's author does a bit of a
       | category mistake, it's more like "Can ChatGPT (the product)
       | reason?".
        
       | hamilyon2 wrote:
       | Well if you try Google Bard with these problems, a pleasant
       | surprise awaits you.
       | 
       | I also found that Bard solves novel logical puzzles which are
       | hard for me, not to mention ChatGPT
        
       | whalesalad wrote:
       | Every day a new scientific paper is posted here that is like
       | straight from the desk of captain obvious. It's a language model.
       | It guesses words based on previous words. We know this.
        
         | mensetmanusman wrote:
         | But everyone keeps saying that we are all LLMs!!
        
         | daniel_reetz wrote:
         | "We know this" is one side of the coin, and "citation needed"
         | is the other.
         | 
         | The many claims about these systems and their emergent behavior
         | need some rigorous investigation. This is one example.
        
         | karaterobot wrote:
         | I agree that it should be obvious, but a lot of people seem to
         | be under the misapprehension that we've got sapient AI out
         | there. I suppose those people aren't reading a lot of journal
         | preprints, but articles like this might trickle down to them
         | eventually. You never know. And this one has a title that is
         | just short enough that it might sink in.
        
         | barrkel wrote:
         | A significant fraction of ML-adjacent people think it can do
         | more.
         | 
         | I'll say that it's more than just words. LLMs can learn
         | patterns, and patterns of patterns, recursively to a degree.
         | They can represent real knowledge about the real world to the
         | degree that this is revealed through the text they train on.
         | This means LLMs can make inferences based on similarities,
         | sometimes similarities at a surprisingly abstract level. And
         | reasoning at the basic logical step by step can of course be
         | done, since that can be reduced to textual pattern matching and
         | string substitution.
         | 
         | But LLMs have no computational space to, for example, read
         | about the description of a novel computation, and then perform
         | the computation without using generated text as a scratchpad,
         | if the computation physically takes more steps than are
         | available in its feedforward stack. It would need to call out
         | to a subsystem in that case. And callable subsystems are ripe
         | for abuse through confused deputy - LLMs are not reliable
         | deputies.
         | 
         | There's a lot of people, text-oriented people, who mistake
         | authorial voice for animus. To me this is like mistaking a CGI
         | animation for a real person behind frosted glass. Text is a low
         | bandwidth medium and it relies on the reader bringing their own
         | mental model to the party. So a machine which produces
         | convincing text has a high leverage tool to seem more capable
         | than it is.
        
           | RodgerTheGreat wrote:
           | In a sense, LLMs- particularly "conversation-shaped" LLMs
           | like ChatGPT- harvest the benefit of the doubt we are all, as
           | readers, used to providing to text.
           | 
           | For most of our lives, most of the text we have encountered
           | was an intentional communication, self-evident through its
           | own existence. LLMs challenge us with something new: text
           | that has the _shape_ of communication, but no _intent_.
           | 
           | The proliferation of generative "AI" for text will profoundly
           | alter the human relationship to the printed word, and perhaps
           | ultimately dispell that benefit of the doubt.
        
         | alpaca128 wrote:
         | > It guesses words based on previous words.
         | 
         | So do I when I respond to your comment, or talk to another
         | person while staying on the same topic. Am I better at staying
         | consistent in output quality and at referring to past events?
         | Yes, but I also have more than 70B parameters.
         | 
         | Side note: I personally have trouble speaking fluently
         | sometimes for no reason, and in those situations I have to
         | manually dig for one word after the other while my brain seems
         | to be temporarily unable to translate thoughts to language in
         | realtime. I would prefer if people calling LLMs word guessers
         | would provide reasons for why they think humans are
         | fundamentally different.
        
         | eutectic wrote:
         | Language modelling is the objective (if we ignore RLHF). That
         | doesn't mean that interesting kinds of reasoning can't emerge.
         | You could just as easily dismiss humans as being 'biological
         | replicators' which just 'reproduce their genomes'.
        
         | codeflo wrote:
         | Wait for the influx of HN comments to disagree with you, citing
         | specific prompts that they found working. It may be obvious to
         | you and me that it's smoke and mirrors, but a lot of smart
         | people fall for it.
        
           | sebzim4500 wrote:
           | I would say in general that if a lot of smart people are
           | disagreeing with you then maybe you should listen to their
           | arguments.
        
           | adamsmith143 wrote:
           | "Stochastic Parrot" is a really tired take and none of the
           | major players, Ilya Sutskever, Andrej Karpathy, etc. believe
           | that's all these models are doing.
        
           | og_kalu wrote:
           | >citing specific prompts that they found working
           | 
           | Lol how about the prompts in the god damn paper ? No one here
           | can replicate the results of this "paper".
        
           | throwanem wrote:
           | "Smart" is a useless concept because it conflates cleverness
           | and wisdom, which are orthogonal dimensions. Clever people
           | who are not wise fall for _lots_ of things.
        
         | sottol wrote:
         | I don't think it's obvious. First of all there's the "magic"
         | and often surprisingly good results that leads many to think
         | there's something else there. Then it's also not entirely clear
         | that nothing else is learnt beyond next word, there was talk of
         | runtime reconfigurable neural nets being embedded within the
         | transformer weights where the models can learn on the fly and
         | such. And I think some believed that there was some higher-
         | level encoding of human reasoning happening necessary to
         | predict the next word well in some contexts beyond just
         | memorization.
         | 
         | I think research like this is necessary to put some "obvious
         | beliefs" onto solid ground.
        
         | cmrdporcupine wrote:
         | You say that, but based on the way many people are treating
         | these LLMs, and imagining their consequences -- they are either
         | treating them as an oracle with reasoning powers, or expecting
         | that they'll just naturally become them through (hand waving)
         | "progress."
         | 
         | Decades of Moore's law has given some people the impression
         | that there's a progressive & exponential improvement in almost
         | all things "technology." Which I think is wrong or misleading
         | when talking about this subject.
         | 
         | I'm just finishing the introduction section of the paper. I'm a
         | bit out of my depth, but impressed so far. It is very well
         | written.
        
         | raducu wrote:
         | > It guesses words based on previous words.
         | 
         | Why can't this fallacy just die already? GPT "guesses" just
         | like ZIP guesses random bits to archive and un-archive files.
         | Except GPT is lossy and IMENSELEY more powerful than the
         | lossless ZIP.
        
           | barrkel wrote:
           | It's not a fallacy. Previous words are very important part of
           | its scratch space. Few-shot learning is based on previous
           | words. Prompt modifiers like "let's think step by step"
           | encourage encoding of reasoning verbosely in words, which
           | then allow simpler induction rules to be pattern matched onto
           | the previous words. Previous words is what gives an otherwise
           | feed-forward network a way to recur.
        
             | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
             | "Guessing" implies those guesses are being compared for
             | correctness against a reference. That only happens during
             | training; the rest of the time, it's not guessing, it's
             | _selecting_ words. But then, how else would you expect a
             | sentence to be made? First writing out all the vowels, and
             | then filling in the rest of the letters between them?
        
         | constantcrying wrote:
         | It is a complete fallacy to argue that just because it is a
         | statistical model it inherently can not make correct
         | deductions.
         | 
         | The model is definitely complex enough that it _could_ include
         | an encoding of rules and apply them.
        
           | whalesalad wrote:
           | Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
        
         | Zetice wrote:
         | And now we know it in a new way.
         | 
         | Nothing wrong at all with checking what we "know" with
         | experiments, even if we have high confidence we know the
         | outcome of those experiments.
        
         | kypro wrote:
         | Can you support the position that language models are unable to
         | reason?
         | 
         | Secondly, how do you accurately guess the next word without the
         | ability to reason? If reasoning can arise from GPT-4's
         | architecture then we should assume that it will with enough
         | scale. Given we don't even know the architecture of GPT-4 I
         | genuinely have no idea how people make these baseless claims so
         | confidently.
         | 
         | "It's a language model" and "it's just guessing the next token"
         | isn't an argument. You're just a collection of atoms obeying
         | physical laws. Obviously you don't reason. Am I doing this
         | right?
        
         | linuxftw wrote:
         | I'm not entirely convinced that is all there is to it. I had it
         | write some code and associated unit tests, and then it came up
         | with passing and failing examples. I also prompted for function
         | results based on arbitrary input, and it would perform the
         | calculations.
         | 
         | It has some emergent ability to evaluate code IMO. I do believe
         | this ability has been drastically reduced in the last several
         | months. It no longer executes complex code as reliably as it
         | once did.
        
         | jaffee wrote:
         | Well... sure. But OpenAI and MSFT have gone to a lot of trouble
         | to build up the mystique around GPT-4 by being secretive about
         | its architecture and publishing papers with tantalizing phrases
         | like "sparks of AGI" and so on. I think this type of thing
         | provides a useful counterbalance.
        
           | ramesh31 wrote:
           | >But OpenAI and MSFT have gone to a lot of trouble to build
           | up the mystique around GPT-4 by being secretive about its
           | architecture and publishing papers with tantalizing phrases
           | like "sparks of AGI" and so on.
           | 
           | An LLM will never be AGI itself. They are word calculators.
           | However, a word calculator is precisely the tool we were
           | missing to be able to create AGI. I believe OpenAI will be
           | left in the dust with this stuff, as federated agents built
           | on open models connect and induce the singularity.
        
             | Arkhaine_kupo wrote:
             | > However, a word calculator is precisely the tool we were
             | missing to be able to create AGI
             | 
             | This seems like the kind of step that the person above you
             | was complaining about.
             | 
             | The "emergent" features of LLMs, or LLMs even being a step
             | in the direction of AGI is entirely unproven so far. They
             | are however powerful enough that they spark the imagination
             | and hypothesis of tons of amateur futurists (and many
             | financial backers of such proyects)
        
               | ramesh31 wrote:
               | >The "emergent" features of LLMs, or LLMs even being a
               | step in the direction of AGI is entirely unproven so far.
               | They are however powerful enough that they spark the
               | imagination and hypothesis of tons of amateur futurists
               | (and many financial backers of such proyects)
               | 
               | That's exactly what I was saying, that it's a mistake to
               | ever think of LLMs as AI. They are the prefrontal cortex.
               | The I/O mechanism. But we still need the spark of agency.
               | The soul if you will. Point being that we can actually
               | work on that for real now, since the language part has
               | been handled.
        
       | mg wrote:
       | I think we should make these types of experiments with a
       | deterministic model.
       | 
       | Is Llama 70B deterministic? Then it could be a good option.
       | 
       | In the article, it says                   To ensure that GPT-4
       | isn't falling back on         rote memorization, we can ask it to
       | first         select two random integers
       | 
       | And then they start their prompt with                   Select
       | two random numbers between 1381 and 1453         and multiply
       | them together, reporting the result.
       | 
       | What does that even mean? What type of randomness is at play
       | here?
        
         | yk wrote:
         | Funny enough you can easily use chatgpt 3.5 for this:
         | 
         | > Write a python one liner that I can copy and paste into my
         | shell. (Assume the python interpreter is available with the
         | python command.) This one liner should pick two random numbers
         | between 1337 and 2023 and multiply them.
         | 
         | And it answers
         | 
         | > python -c "import random; print(random.randint(1337, 2023) *
         | random.randint(1337, 2023))"
        
         | tromp wrote:
         | It means they want to see GPT-4 perform a multiplication whose
         | correct result it likely doesn't have memorized. Randomness
         | does not really matter here. They just need GPT-4 to pick
         | numbers in that range in whatever arbitrary manner it chooses.
         | They got what they wanted:
         | 
         | > GPT-4: Sure, let's select two random numbers in the range of
         | 1381 to 1453. Let's say these numbers are 1405 and 1421. To get
         | the product, we simply multiply these two numbers together:
         | 1405 * 1421 = 1996025
         | 
         | > Alas, the correct answer is 1405 * 1421 = 1996505.
        
           | alpaca128 wrote:
           | But that's arithmetic, not logical reasoning.
           | 
           | That's not an LLM's purpose. Also I'm a human and would
           | struggle quite a bit to multiply 1405 and 1421 in my head,
           | and nobody expects me to. I think when we test an AI we
           | should use tests in which humans weren't already beaten by
           | machines half a century ago.
        
         | User23 wrote:
         | > What does that even mean? What type of randomness is at play
         | here?
         | 
         | This is you reasoning.
         | 
         | An AI that is actually reasoning will ask itself such questions
         | and then either ask for clarification or make reasonable
         | assumptions.
        
         | sp332 wrote:
         | Most LLMs are deterministic, but the tooling around them
         | samples randomly from the output to let users explore the
         | nearby space of responses without having to come up with
         | infinitely nuanced prompts. You can turn this off.
         | 
         | However, the structure of OpenAI's GPT-4 is not deterministic.
         | The most likely explanation I've seen is that they only
         | activate some parts of the model for each input, and the parts
         | are load-balanced so sometimes a different part of the model
         | will be responding.
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37006224
        
           | panarky wrote:
           | _> they only activate some parts of the model for each input_
           | 
           | Perhaps you see seemingly random results because OpenAI is
           | A/B testing multiple versions, or different combinations of
           | hyperparameters, so that you can train GPT5.
        
             | mlyle wrote:
             | Nah; the mentioned paper above (from a few days ago here on
             | HN) show about how GPT4 is nondeterministic because the
             | sparse mixture of experts technique used is
             | nondeterministic based on batch positioning.
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | cratermoon wrote:
           | > You can turn this off
           | 
           | Not entirely. Even with temperature = 0, GPT4 is non-
           | deterministic.
        
             | nomel wrote:
             | > GPT4 is non-deterministic.
             | 
             | For the curious reader:
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37006224
             | 
             | It appears that it could "easily" be made deterministic.
        
           | patrakov wrote:
           | This non-deterministic sampling is not only for users to
           | explore the space of responses. Without this, the LLM itself
           | is prone to generate too-repetitive text.
        
       | andreyk wrote:
       | Long quote, but I think this is useful context for the argument:
       | 
       | "LLM believers will probably demur: But humans also make
       | mistakes, and surely we're not prepared to say that humans can't
       | reason just because they make mistakes? First, it is not accurate
       | to say without qualification that "humans can reason," certainly
       | not in the sense that we can randomly pluck any person from the
       | street and expect them to reliably perform normatively correct
       | reasoning. Most neurobiologically normal humans have the capacity
       | to become proficient in reasoning, but actually attaining such
       | proficiency takes significant training and discipline. ... But if
       | a human made these mistakes, the ones reported in this article,
       | then I would conclude without any hesitation that they cannot
       | reason. Even if they went on to list a large number of other
       | examples demonstrating impeccable reasoning, I would suspect that
       | other factors (such as rote memorization or cheating) were behind
       | the performance discrepancy. For the mistakes reported here are
       | not performance mistakes, the sort of innocuous errors that
       | humans might make--and promptly correct--when they are careless
       | or tired. If a human made these mistakes, and made them
       | consistently under repeated questioning, that would indicate
       | without doubt that they don't have the necessary logical
       | competence, that they lack fundamental concepts that are part and
       | parcel of the fabric of reasoning, such as logical entailment and
       | set membership."
       | 
       | So really what this is saying is "GPT-4 makes certain categories
       | of mistakes wrt reasoning that indicate it is in general not
       | doing 'true reasoning' even if it does say the right things to
       | indicate reasoning in other cases". And yeah, if that's the basis
       | of your argument, sure. But how would it be doing rote
       | memorization or "cheating" in the cases it does get things right?
       | A weird notion...
       | 
       | Anyway it feels rather pointless to make this a binary quality.
       | As this article points out, humans (on average) make various
       | reasoning mistakes due to cognitive biases as well. GPT-4 *can*
       | output valid explanations for its reasoning for various
       | questions, but fails to do so correctly in many cases (as shown
       | in this piece), and to me it is more interesting to discuss the
       | implications of this rather than to just establish that fact
       | (which is not news to anyone afaik). This does have a
       | 'Conclusions' section that delves into this a little, but it
       | rather over-general and weak.
       | 
       | Still, this is pretty well written and it is good to have a
       | compilation of examples to demonstrate GPT-4 is still not a
       | "human-like reasoner" for anyone not aware of these models still
       | having such flaws, I suppose.
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | The paper is not reproducible lol.
        
       | cratermoon wrote:
       | For people who disagree with the paper, see also Cargo Cult AI
       | https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3595860
       | 
       | 'There is something unsettling about the opinion that LLMs are
       | emergent AGI. LLMs exhibit many behaviors and precepts indicative
       | of intelligence, but are missing something essential: the stuffy
       | rigor of scientific inquiry. Today's AI models are missing the
       | ability to reason abstractly, including asking and answering
       | questions of "Why?" and "How?"'
        
         | og_kalu wrote:
         | Very easy to disagree with a paper that isn't reproducible. By
         | all means, try asking the questions on your own instance of
         | GPT-4 and see if you can get the results the paper claims.
        
       | k__ wrote:
       | I'd assume it totally can reason, it just tries to make the best
       | of the bad training data.
       | 
       | It might not look "reasonable" for a human, but that doesn't mean
       | it isn't.
        
         | akomtu wrote:
         | If GPT is fed 99 text samples claiming that sky is red, and 1
         | sample that sky is blue, GPT will happily tell that sky is red.
         | A reasoning model would be able to spot the bogus data. However
         | most people hardly use reasoning skills at all: just like GPT,
         | they parrot what they've heard.
        
           | brabel wrote:
           | > A reasoning model would be able to spot the bogus data.
           | 
           | You're basically trying to say that an AI model should know
           | what "sky" means and what color it is without getting that
           | information from the data... which is like... not how it
           | works!! Where exactly do you expect the AI to know that
           | from?? The data is all there is for the AI.
        
           | burnished wrote:
           | How would a 'reasoning model' do anything but report a red
           | sky? The color of the sky isn't something you reason, it's
           | something you observe. Any creature capable of generalizing
           | and reporting would likely tell you that the sky is typically
           | red given that information
        
           | nerevarthelame wrote:
           | >However most people hardly use reasoning skills at all: just
           | like GPT, they parrot what they've heard.
           | 
           | If your test for being able to reason disqualifies most
           | humans, you may want to reevaluate that test.
        
       | ma2rten wrote:
       | I didn't have time to read this, but it is a single author paper,
       | the author is not affiliated with a research group, it is not
       | peer reviewed, it was published on a preprint server that I have
       | never heard of.
       | 
       | LLMs can definitely perform some kinds of reasoning. For example
       | GSM8K is a dataset of grade school math problem requiring
       | reasoning that LLMs are typically evaluated at. We talk about one
       | method for this in our chain of thought paper [1]
       | 
       | [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903
        
         | ramblerman wrote:
         | > I didn't have time to read this
         | 
         | You had time to respond though, what a silly (and elitist
         | rebuttal).
         | 
         | OP is arguing from a philosophical point of view that GPT-4 can
         | not reason, i.e. is just repeating/parroting on trained logical
         | arguments.
         | 
         | You argue by authority that yes, it actually does reason, which
         | is a far (far) bolder claim than the one OP is making.
        
           | adamsmith143 wrote:
           | >You had time to respond though, what a silly (and elitist
           | rebuttal).
           | 
           | What a dumb take. It probably takes seconds to write a simple
           | comment and far longer to read a paper.
           | 
           | >You argue by authority that yes, it actually does reason,
           | which is a far (far) bolder claim than the one OP is making.
           | 
           | He linked a paper you can read yourself. How is this arguing
           | from authority?
        
             | ramblerman wrote:
             | > It probably takes seconds to write a simple comment and
             | far longer to read a paper.
             | 
             | Unfortunately that is true, it doesn't mean you have to.
             | 
             | The paper he linked to doesn't rebut OP, they show that
             | prompting GPT-4 to provide reasoning makes it provide
             | better answers. That is a different statement than "GPT-4
             | is actually reasoning", and can do so consistently on novel
             | problems.
        
               | adamsmith143 wrote:
               | You should probably think about why you think that making
               | the model output reasoning steps which lead it to
               | correctly answer questions it couldn't before is not
               | somehow equivalent to reasoning.
        
             | layer8 wrote:
             | The paper makes detailed and reasoned arguments, and the GP
             | quickly dismisses it without such.
        
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