[HN Gopher] First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters comme...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation
       in Georgia
        
       Author : CharlesW
       Score  : 203 points
       Date   : 2023-07-31 19:11 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (apnews.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (apnews.com)
        
       | Retric wrote:
       | "seven years late and $17 billion over budget. At its full output
       | of 1,100 megawatts of electricity"
       | 
       | Ignoring interest for those 7 years and all other costs just the
       | overage is insane. 17 billion / ( 1,100,000 kW * 90% capacity
       | factor * 24 hour * 365 days * 50 years) = 4 cents per kWh. Add
       | interest etc and someone lost an incredible amount of money on
       | this project.
        
         | FrustratedMonky wrote:
         | >"seven years late and $17 billion over budget. At its full
         | output of 1,100 megawatts of electricity"
         | 
         | It's all projects. This just happens to be a big one.
         | 
         | Everyone likes to point to over-runs, over-budget, late
         | projects.
         | 
         | Nobody goes back and asks "who did the original estimate that
         | we eventually went over?".
         | 
         | Many projects start with /s 'everyone knowing it will go over
         | budget, but if we give a real estimate it wont get off the
         | ground'/s.
         | 
         | Then later someone has to get blamed. If everyone is
         | (quietly)honest they kind of spread around the blame and the
         | success. If it is a contentious project, everyone is playing
         | tag at the end.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | Every other kind of power project is built using fixed price
           | bids. If a company bids $3B for a natural gas plant or solar
           | plant and the project costs more than $3B to build the
           | company is on the hook, not the ratepayer.
        
             | FrustratedMonky wrote:
             | I didn't dig into details on specific of this project.
             | 
             | But any large fixed price project I've been on, it all
             | hinged on verbose specifications. And then any change
             | resulted in change orders. And it becomes a pissing match
             | of who will pay. It is rarely cut and dry.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | They are power contracts, not construction contracts. The
               | power company isn't buying a power plant, they're buying
               | power. That's what makes the contract so much simpler.
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | > someone lost an incredible amount of money on this project.
         | 
         | All roads lead to Ratepayers (electrical customers).
         | 
         | > Georgia Power's residential customers are projected to pay
         | more than $926 apiece as part of an ongoing finance charge and
         | elected public service commissioners have approved a rate
         | increase. Residential customers will pay $4 more per month as
         | soon as the third unit begins generating power. That could hit
         | bills in August, two months after residential customers saw a
         | $16-a-month increase to pay for higher fuel costs.
         | 
         | > The high construction costs have wiped out any future benefit
         | from low nuclear fuel costs in the future, experts have
         | repeatedly testified before commissioners.
         | 
         | > "The cost increases and schedule delays have completely
         | eliminated any benefit on a life-cycle cost basis," Tom
         | Newsome, director of utility finance for the commission,
         | testified Thursday in a Georgia Public Service Commission
         | hearing examining spending.
         | 
         | > The utility will face a fight from longtime opponents of the
         | plant, many of whom note that power generated from solar and
         | wind would be cheaper. They say letting Georgia Power make
         | ratepayers pay for mistakes will unfairly bolster the utility's
         | profits.
         | 
         | > "While capital-intensive and expensive projects may benefit
         | Georgia Power's shareholders who have enjoyed record profits
         | throughout Vogtle's beleaguered construction, they are not the
         | least-cost option for Georgians who are feeling the sting of
         | repeated bill increases," Southern Environmental Law Center
         | staff attorney Bob Sherrier said in a statement.
         | 
         | This will likely be the last commercial nuclear generator ever
         | reaching criticality for the first time on US soil. Consider
         | the current interest rate environment and the appetite for
         | backstopping a multi decade construction project.
         | 
         | https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april...
         | [pdf, start at page 4]
        
           | laiewjrliawej wrote:
           | And that's why I left the nuclear industry. Nuclear power is
           | the safest form of power production we've ever produced (more
           | people are killed per MWh installing and repairing wind
           | turbines than in the nuclear industry) but it has never been
           | anywhere near cost effective and no nuclear project has ever
           | been completed anywhere near on-schedule. Every time I hear
           | someone talk about how the world needs tons of new nuclear
           | plants and solar and wind can't possibly meet the demand
           | quickly enough, that person seems to imagine that none of the
           | next wave of nuclear plants magically will not have any of
           | the problems that every previous nuclear plant had. Meanwhile
           | solar and wind are beating estimates year after year. I still
           | love nuclear physics (and I am excited about several up-and-
           | coming fusion projects) but I just don't believe in the
           | nuclear (fission) power industry anymore.
        
             | coldpie wrote:
             | Interesting to hear an inside perspective! While they
             | definitely aren't cheap, do you feel they're not worth the
             | price, given the urgency and rapidly rising costs of
             | climate change? It seems like they'd be competitive with,
             | or even cheaper than, fossil fuel plants if we priced in
             | their externalities, and nuclear can shore up the areas
             | where renewables have difficult to solve gaps. Any
             | thoughts?
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | It's hard to see projects that take ~14 years to produce
               | the first kWh urgent solutions to anything.
               | 
               | Spend the same money starting in the same year and the
               | first solar project makes enough money to fund a second
               | which then also comes online before your nuclear power
               | plant is ready.
               | 
               | Which doesn't make nuclear useless, but it's really
               | disappointing if you're in the industry.
        
               | coldpie wrote:
               | I feel like the root of the pro/against nuclear debate
               | comes down to your outlook on storage :) I'm skeptical
               | that storage can meet our needs (would love to be wrong!
               | haven't seen a convincing analysis, yet), so I think we
               | need a reliable form of continuous power. The only option
               | currently on the table for that is nuclear, so, I boost
               | nuclear. I dislike the nuclear nay-saying, because it
               | further delays an already slow process. When (IMO) the
               | optimistic plan for storage doesn't pan out, we're really
               | going to regret not having started building those nukes
               | ~14 years ago... so why not hedge our bets and get 'em
               | started right now? In the grand scheme of climate change
               | costs, they are absolutely dirt cheap.
        
               | flaburgan wrote:
               | It's because of the urgency that nuclear is not the
               | solution. You need more than a dozen of years to build
               | one. By that time it will be too late for the climate.
        
             | Kon5ole wrote:
             | >>Nuclear power is the safest form of power production
             | we've ever produced.
             | 
             | This is a common claim but it abuses statistics. By looking
             | only at the one metric (deaths) it ignores the enormous
             | enterprise required to keep nuclear as safe as it has been.
             | No other power source needs anything like it.
        
             | mywittyname wrote:
             | The sad part is, this is a solvable problem. If the nation
             | _really_ wanted to build a large number of safe, effective
             | nuclear power plant, we could, and probably in a time frame
             | of months, not years. But entrenched interest from natural
             | gas and coal producers combined with anti-nuclear sentiment
             | practically guarantee that will never happen.
             | 
             | Nuclear power is held to too high of a standard to really
             | be a viable source of power, especially in a democracy.
        
               | breckenedge wrote:
               | > Nuclear power is held to too high of a standard to
               | really be a viable source of power, especially in a
               | democracy
               | 
               | Don't tell that to France.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | France can't do it these days either. Look at the fiasco
               | of the EPR; it drove their nuclear corporation to
               | insolvency.
        
               | dale_glass wrote:
               | Doubtful.
               | 
               | Nuclear is very specific tech. I don't think there's a
               | whole bunch of companies out there sitting on their hands
               | just waiting for a bunch of contracts to show up.
        
               | lamontcg wrote:
               | None of that is the root problem. Nuclear plants are too
               | big, and we can't build big things cheaply in this
               | country.
               | 
               | The idle corruption of middle managers is what kills
               | these kinds of projects.
        
               | blibble wrote:
               | > If the nation really wanted to build a large number of
               | safe, effective nuclear power plant, we could, and
               | probably in a time frame of months, not years. But
               | entrenched interest from natural gas and coal producers
               | combined with anti-nuclear sentiment practically
               | guarantee that will never happen.
               | 
               | meanwhile the Chinese have 22 power stations under
               | construction and 70 planned
        
           | mlsu wrote:
           | I would argue that ratepayers would lose significantly more,
           | in the form of
           | 
           | iq decreases, cancer, early death from air pollution, and
           | ongoing, worsening weather damage from climate change
           | 
           | were this plant not constructed and the grid powered from
           | natgas or coal instead.
           | 
           | I hate these discussions about power, because in every case
           | the quoted price of alternatives does not factor in the huge
           | and obvious externalities.
        
             | llsf wrote:
             | I would add to the list of externalities if we do not build
             | more nuclear power plants: CHAOS
             | 
             | chaos that will ensue when we will reach peak oil/gas/coal,
             | as we extract and consume faster than earth produce them.
             | When the price to extract oil/gas/coal would be too high,
             | chaos will result of our economies addiction to fossil
             | fuel.
             | 
             | The sooner we use alternatives the better.
             | 
             | Housing: So, yes, it is annoying to have new house built
             | with only electricity (i.e. without a gas line) but unless
             | energy becomes super abundant and cheap so we can create
             | gas (out of CO2 and water), electricity is the best bet
             | long run.
             | 
             | Transportation: Same, the sooner we can electrify
             | transportation the better starting with trucks and trains.
             | Boats and planes might get the last drop of oil.
             | 
             | Industry: Should get incentives to move to electricity.
             | 
             | And all electricity should be eventually non-fossil
             | (nuclear + solar + wind + hydro).
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | https://www.ewg.org/news-insights/news-
             | release/2023/01/2024-... (By 2024, one-fourth of U.S.
             | electricity will come from renewables: EIA)
             | 
             | https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/us-power-regulator-
             | we... (US moves to link more wind and solar projects to
             | electric grid) ("Today there is more than 2,000 gigawatts
             | of renewable power waiting to be connected to the grid --
             | nearly double the amount of current U.S. generation
             | capacity, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Acting
             | (FERC) Chairman Willie Phillips said at a press conference
             | following the unanimous vote.")
             | 
             | https://www.energy-storage.news/us-utility-scale-battery-
             | sto... (US utility-scale battery storage industry deployed
             | 4GW/12GWh in record-breaking 2022)
             | 
             | https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/31/turning-america-
             | into-a-... (Turning America Into A Solar Manufacturing
             | Powerhouse)
             | 
             | Low carbon power from Vogtle is welcome, because it's here
             | and what is done is done, but there is no point in throwing
             | good money after bad on commercial fission.
        
           | runako wrote:
           | It's nice to have a captive customer base. Georgia Power
           | serves more than a million additional people now than it did
           | when this thing broke ground. And somehow all the pre-
           | existing customers, plus the million+ new residents, all have
           | to pay $4 extra for the power generated here. This, in
           | addition to the fees they pay for electricity.
           | 
           | Vogtle isn't going to be a good sales pitch for expanding
           | nuclear.
           | 
           | It's no wonder Georgia Power doesn't provide a calculator to
           | let people know how Vogtle coming online affects the per-unit
           | cost to consumers.
        
         | aputsiak wrote:
         | On the news page, there is a link til an article on India
         | purchasing 1,200 MW facility from China for 3,5 billions. Edit:
         | https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-china-nuclear-power-plan...
        
         | _hypx wrote:
         | Your own math points out that this is a cost effective
         | technology. 4 cents per kWh is quite cheap electricity.
        
           | syspec wrote:
           | That's an additional flat charge, _in addition to_ the cost
           | it was last month.
        
         | Manuel_D wrote:
         | Those are non-intermittent kilowatt hours, though (and the
         | maintenance that does need to happen is known in advance). One
         | energy demand at peak production is saturated, intermittent
         | sources become a lot more expensive since storage needs to be
         | provisioned. Some markets are fast approaching this scenario:
         | https://reneweconomy.com.au/california-duck-curve-now-a-cany...
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | Wouldn't solar, as an intermittent source, be well correlated
           | with demand in Georgia?
           | 
           | Sun's out = heavy AC load?
           | 
           | Doing any grid 100% solar needs a lot of storage, but there's
           | gotta be a perfect point that mostly shaves peaks really
           | nicely.
           | 
           | (Yeah yeah, it can be cloudy _and_ hot+humid, but still)
        
             | Manuel_D wrote:
             | Demand typically peaks in the evening, around 9pm. This is
             | right as the sun sets, where solar is tapering off. It's
             | not "shaving peaks" about half your electricity consumption
             | (including peak consumption) is going to happen during
             | periods of non-production.
        
               | ZeroGravitas wrote:
               | And yet their on-peak times in the summer ends at 7pm:
               | 
               | > Shift some of your summer energy usage away from the
               | on-peak time periods (2-7 p.m., Monday-Friday, June-
               | September, excluding holidays).
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | Demand shifting is just a long winded way of saying, "we
               | can't generate enough electricity, you just need to stop
               | using power at certain times of day." And it's easier
               | said than done. Residential demand shifting, and some
               | forms of industry (e.g. arc furnaces) can shift demand.
               | But others cannot: the pumps powering your sewage system
               | needs to work all day around. Same with data centers, and
               | plenty of other industries.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | A Tesla megapack holds 3MWh and is warranted for 15years. If
           | you use the entire capacity daily for duck curve shifting and
           | it dies the day after its warranty runs out, (3MWh * 365 *
           | 15), that's 16 TWh. A megapack costs $1.8M, for a cost of 11
           | cents per kWh. That's cheaper than the fully loaded cost of
           | Vogtle.
           | 
           | But of course you don't have store every kWh used. Peak
           | demand in the summer is caused by A/C and corresponds closely
           | with peak solar generation and can be used directly. New
           | solar farms have a cost of about 0.5cents per kWh, but we'll
           | use 1cent per kWh to be generous. So if you use 3/4 of your
           | power directly and shift 1/4 you end up with an average cost
           | of 0.75 _1c + 0.25_ (11+1) = 2.75 cents.
           | 
           | And those costs aren't theoretical. For a concrete example,
           | the 8minute energy Eland project proves 24h battery+solar
           | energy for under 4 cents per kWh.
        
             | Manuel_D wrote:
             | 3 MWh is a trivial amount of storage. That's less than 10
             | seconds of this plant's output. To put this in perspective,
             | the USA uses 11.5 TWh of electricity each day. That's just
             | under 500 GWh per hour. You'd need a _lot_ of megapacks to
             | provision 8 hours of storage. The Eland project you mention
             | has 4 hours of storage, it 's not a 24 hour production
             | system.
             | 
             | The reality is that renewables are currently only viable to
             | supplement a grid primary backed by a dispatchable source
             | of energy. If you have loads of hydroelectricity, that's
             | fine, but the regions that don't have hydroelectric
             | potential are going to be stuck burning fossil fuels until
             | a massive storage breakthrough is found.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | It's a trivial amount of storage for a trivial amount of
               | money. Do the math, don't hand wave.
               | 
               | The Eland project provides 24 hour power with only 4hr of
               | storage. That's the demand curve in action.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | > It's a trivial amount of storage for a trivial amount
               | of money. Do the math, don't hand wave.
               | 
               | Sure thing! Right now we have an annual battery
               | production rate of 500 GWh _globally_ [1]. If we 're
               | going to use global battery production figures, we need
               | to use global electricity consumption, which is about 70
               | TWh per day [2]. How much storage we'll need varies,
               | depending on the mix of solar and wind. Estimates I can
               | find say 12 hours on the low end, 3 weeks on the high end
               | [3].
               | 
               | So even with the optimistic estimates of 12 hours, that
               | means we'd need 35,000 GWh of storage. This is 70 years
               | of global production at our current rate, for the
               | _optimistic_ storage estimates. And of course we can 't
               | dedicate _all_ battery production to grid storage - we
               | need them for electric vehicles, and electrical devices
               | 
               | Production of batteries may grow in the future, but then
               | again so will electricity demand as countries develop and
               | transportation becomes more electrified. Furthermore,
               | we're not counting the fact that batteries have limited
               | lifetimes. It depends on depth of discharge, but we're
               | usually looking at 1,500 to 3,000 cycles before they're
               | substantially degraded.
               | 
               | As your can see, the scale of battery production and the
               | scale of energy storage required to make intermittent
               | sources variable are totally mismatched. The reality is
               | there is no amount of money that will provision the
               | battery storage required, because if countries across the
               | world start trying to buy terawatt hours of batteries
               | when only 500GWh of batteries are produced then the cost
               | of batteries will skyrocket. Cathode material already
               | 
               | > The Eland project provides 24 hour power with only 4hr
               | of storage. That's the demand curve in action.
               | 
               | The "demand curve" means Eland _doesn 't_ provide 24
               | hours of power at its rated output. It provides a
               | fraction of its rated power at night and tells customers
               | not to use as much electricity. This may work for some
               | consumers, but not others. The pumps powering your sewage
               | system can't demand shift if you want to flush your
               | toilet at night. The reality is that peak energy demand
               | happens at night [4], when storage isn't producing
               | electricity. Eland can do this demand shift because other
               | producers are picking up the slack.
               | 
               | When you read about storage projects you need to be on
               | the lookout for weasel-words like this. Demand curve
               | means they produce a fraction of the rated power output
               | during periods of non-production. If I have a plant that
               | produces 1,000 MW during the date and 100=MW at night,
               | that's _technically_ 24 hours of production. But clearly
               | this is not the same thing as a nuclear plant that
               | produces 1n000 MW at all hours.
               | 
               | 1. https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-
               | analysis/growt...
               | 
               | 2. https://www.statista.com/statistics/280704/world-
               | power-consu...
               | 
               | 3. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/03/01/12-hours-
               | energy-stora...
               | 
               | 4. https://reneweconomy.com.au/california-duck-curve-now-
               | a-cany...
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | Your link 3 also contains this line: "The solar heavy
               | network wouldn't need energy storage with an HVDC
               | network."
               | 
               | IOW, the US could build a 100% solar+wind+hydro grid
               | WITHOUT ANY STORAGE. The wind is always blowing somewhere
               | in the US.
               | 
               | Of course that much HVDC and overbuild would be
               | ridiculously expensive, but some HVDC and some batteries
               | are a lot cheaper than only HVDC or only batteries.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | The US alone has 800GWh of battery plants in the
               | pipeline, to come online before 2026.[1] China has
               | multiple TWh's worth. We can build 35TWh or even 350TWh
               | of batteries a lot faster and than we can build the
               | multiple TW of nuclear plants that would be necessary to
               | decarbonize electricity without storage.
               | 
               | 1:
               | https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2022/11/178584.pdf
               | 
               | > The reality is that peak energy demand happens at night
               | 
               | Peak _net_ energy demand happens at night. Peak _gross_
               | demand is during the day.
               | 
               | > Eland can do this demand shift because other producers
               | are picking up the slack.
               | 
               | Eland is producing at a rate identical to the California
               | demand curve, it's in their contract. It's the solar
               | producers who don't have solar along with consumer
               | rooftop solar that's causing the duck curve daytime
               | demand drop.
               | 
               | > If I have a plant that produces 1,000 MW during the
               | date and 100=MW at night, that's technically 24 hours of
               | production. But clearly this is not the same thing as a
               | nuclear plant that produces 1000 MW at all hours.
               | 
               | But the former costs 1/10th of the latter, so you build
               | 10 of them to get 1000MW at night and 10000MW during the
               | day.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | The "pipeline" you're referring to is a measure of
               | battery manufacturing capacity. This is not nearly the
               | same thing as actual production figures. Capacity
               | utilization in 2022 was under 35%. In other words, 100
               | GWh of capacity only translated into 35 GWh of battery
               | production. This is because the majority of cost of
               | lithium ion batteries is in raw materials, namely cathode
               | material [1]. A huge amount of capacity is useless if you
               | don't have the input materials to feed your factories.
               | 
               | You can't store energy in a battery factory, you store
               | energy in batteries. Cite the _actual production_
               | figures, not the stated capacity figures (spoiler alert:
               | it was just under 500 GWh last year.).
               | 
               | And to reiterate, the vast majority of this production is
               | not going to grid storage, it's going to EVs and
               | electronics. Even if battery production matches the
               | predicted growth, it's still vastly insufficient to
               | provision grid storage without heavily crippling EV
               | rollout.
               | 
               | > Eland is producing at a rate identical to the
               | California demand curve, it's in their contract. It's the
               | solar producers who don't have solar along with consumer
               | rooftop solar that's causing the duck curve daytime
               | demand drop
               | 
               | Again, electricity demand at night is still high:
               | https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx
               | 
               | Demand remains high well into midnight. I'm not sure why
               | you think matching the demand curve is somehow going to
               | mean you're going to get away with less storage. Unless
               | Eland is going to be producing much less than its
               | nameplate capacity at all times of day, 4 hours of
               | storage is nowhere near enough for it to match the demand
               | curve.
               | 
               | > If I have a plant that produces 1,000 MW during the
               | date and 100=MW at night, that's technically 24 hours of
               | production. But clearly this is not the same thing as a
               | nuclear plant that produces 1000 MW at all hours. But the
               | former costs 1/10th of the latter, so you build 10 of
               | them to get 1000MW at night and 10000MW during the day.
               | 
               | The former doesn't have a price tag, because no amount of
               | money in the world will buy you that much lithium ion
               | batteries. Again, the world uses 70,000 GWh of electricty
               | per day, _most_ of that being consumed when solar is not
               | producing electricity. No amount of money can fulfill
               | that amount of storage.
               | 
               | 1. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-
               | cost-of-a...
        
               | coldpie wrote:
               | Excellent comment.
               | 
               | > If we're going to use global battery production
               | figures, we need to use global electricity consumption,
               | which is about 70 TWh per day
               | 
               | Don't forget about all the energy usage that isn't
               | currently electricity, but will need to be! Especially
               | heating & transportation.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | The problem isn't intractable. It just requires time,
               | effort, and capital.
               | 
               | https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-
               | Part-3.pdf
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | The paper also assumes we'll make have feasible CO2
               | energy capture and hydrogen electrolysis and storage. It
               | required time, effort, capital, and _and multiple
               | engineering breakthroughs_. If your plan is contingent on
               | technologies that aren 't available... it's just a long
               | winded way of saying you don't have a plan.
               | 
               | Actually, we just need improvements in fusion power and
               | then we don't need solar, wind, or battery storage!
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | The paper assumes CO2 energy capture at $200/ton. That's
               | "scale up existing technologies" pricing, not
               | "engineering breakthrough" pricing.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | It also assumes a vast hydrogen electric grid storage
               | network - this is only theoretical, nobody has actually
               | deployed a facility that converts electricity to
               | hydrogen, and back to electricity. At best this is,
               | "scale up heretofore unproven technologies", not
               | "existing technologies".
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | Once cheap intermittent sources have in the moment saturated
           | the market, nuclear cannot charge what it needs to pay off
           | the very large capital cost. Nuclear is then dependent on
           | making that money during brief spikes, but storage and demand
           | dispatch will be flattening those spikes. Nuclear will have
           | nowhere to hide.
        
           | dv_dt wrote:
           | Many smaller intermittent sources with non-correlated outages
           | is better for availability than a single dominant source even
           | with preplanned maintenance intermittency. What is the
           | emergency and disaster planning impact if the nuclear plant
           | goes down in the middle of a summer heatwave?
        
             | Manuel_D wrote:
             | Smaller intermittent sources don't really help since
             | they're still subject to the same weather patterns and
             | earth rotation. Distributing generation across continents
             | would involve massive costs in energy transmission. People
             | like to tout that intermittent sources are more distributed
             | and less centralized. But that's negative facet of
             | renewables, since demand _is_ centralized in population
             | centers, and distributed production means more transmission
             | costs.
             | 
             | The same criticism can be applied to any electricity
             | source: What happens wind stops during a heatwave? Or when
             | the sun goes down? You might say nuclear is less reliable,
             | but the reality is nuclear power has the highest capacity
             | factor of all generation sources:
             | https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-
             | capacity#....
        
               | dv_dt wrote:
               | Instead of proposing cross-continent distribution lines,
               | just build more small regional renewable sources...
               | unlike nuclear, their costs keep going down. Smaller
               | renewable solar and wind sources with battery storage are
               | perfectly fine, and the correlation in heat with sun
               | works to reduce the need for storage capacity.
               | 
               | Capacity factor does not address reliability or emergency
               | planning...
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | > Smaller renewable solar and wind sources with battery
               | storage are perfectly fine, and the correlation in heat
               | with sun works to reduce the need for storage capacity.
               | 
               | Again, peak electricity demand does _not_ happen at noon.
               | It happens at around 9pm, when the sun either has set or
               | is about to set. Unfortunately, solar 's production does
               | not match demand patterns.
               | 
               | > Instead of proposing cross-continent distribution
               | lines, just build more small regional renewable
               | sources...
               | 
               | Again, all the renewable sources in the same region are
               | subject to the same weather patterns and and day/night
               | cycles. Sure multiple solar farms gives you redundancy
               | against some sort of mechanical failure that causes one
               | specific solar farm to go down. But the most common
               | failure mode in intermittent sources is cloud cover or
               | lower-than-expected wind speeds. A backup solar plant a
               | mile away isn't going to give you redundancy against
               | weather patterns. This is why a lot of plans for
               | renewable grids are contingent on thousands of miles of
               | HVDC lines to move energy across continents.
               | 
               | > Capacity factor does not address reliability or
               | emergency planning...
               | 
               | Capacity factor describes the uptime of a power plant.
               | Nuclear power has the highest uptime. The point is it's
               | less likely to go down than all alternatives.
        
               | dv_dt wrote:
               | Cloud cover doesn't stop all production, it just reduces
               | it. Just build more solar and more storage and it will
               | still be a fraction of the cost of nuclear. I could
               | answer point by point but all of your "failures" are
               | artificially constrained.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | Cloud cover reduces solar production by 10-25%. If you
               | need 10x overproduction, _plus_ storage it 's not cheaper
               | than nuclear. That's not even counting factors like axial
               | tilt (during winter the Earth is rotated away form the
               | sun, reducing incoming light per M^2 of land), and the
               | transmission infrastructure required to accommodate the
               | decentralized nature of solar and wind [1] (which nuclear
               | conveniently avoids since it's much more energy dense).
               | 
               | These aren't artificially constrained issues. These are
               | real practical barriers. Why haven't countries the world
               | over completely to renewables if it's cheaper? Because
               | corporations want to screw up the environment because...
               | they're moustache-twirling evil people or something? But
               | the reality is that intermittent sources still have
               | significant barriers to implementation that won't go away
               | without massive, orders-of-magnitude improvements in
               | storage performance. Renewables are good to deploy in an
               | opportunistic fashion, supplementing dispatchable sources
               | during periods of production and then turning the gas
               | back on when they're not producing. But actually
               | producing a primarily renewable grid becomes vastly more
               | challenging due to the intermittency.
               | 
               | 1. https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-
               | clean-ene...
        
               | dv_dt wrote:
               | Fossil fuel companies are those mustache-twirling profit
               | optimization villains, and there is demonstrated evidence
               | that they have run a decades long campaign against any
               | form of energy that is not fossil fuel...
               | 
               | 10-25% short fall doesn't require 10x over capacity, it
               | requires a mix of overcapacity + storage + energy
               | conservation measures.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | The energy storage at relevant scale is nowhere near
               | feasible as other comment chains explain. "Energy
               | conservation" is just an admission that these sources
               | can't generate enough energy.
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | Non-interment kilowatt hours are actually _less_ valuable.
           | Demand dips at night, the weekend, spring and fall etc. So
           | when negotiating power purchase agreements grid operators are
           | pricing most of that production when it's least valuable.
           | 
           | Battery backed solar is becoming really popular with grid
           | operators because you get the upsides of load following
           | without the overhead of mostly idle production. The economics
           | get interesting as more solar comes online, but things are
           | only getting much worse for nuclear and coal. Which is why
           | there is basically nothing in the pipeline for either one.
        
             | Manuel_D wrote:
             | Incorrect, demand peaks right as night starts and the sun
             | goes down. See that peak [1] at 9pm? Battery backed solar
             | is not even remotely feasible. To put this in perspective,
             | the USA alone uses ~11.5 TWh of electricty each day. A
             | battery to last through the night is over 5,000 GWh.
             | 
             | 1. https://b698061.smushcdn.com/698061/wp-
             | content/uploads/2023/...
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | There are several battery backed solar power plants in
               | the US already built.
               | 
               | Collocated Solar with batteries increases efficiency as
               | DC from solar is used to directly charge batteries
               | without the cost or losses associated with DC>AC>DC you
               | would see if these where separate. LCOE is already below
               | 60$/MWh because you only need batteries for a fraction of
               | total production.
               | 
               | https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2022/utility-scale_pv-
               | plus-...
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | Sure, but those battery backed solar plants usually only
               | have 2-4 hours worth of storage. They're not actually
               | producing full output throughout the night.
               | 
               | The cost of batteries would skyrocket if countries
               | actually tried to provision 12 hours of battery storage.
               | Because the US _alone_ uses 500 GWh of electricity each
               | hour. This is greater than the _global_ battery
               | production figures in 2022 [1].
               | 
               | 1. https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-
               | analysis/growt...
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | You're calculating that storage number as if the solar
               | power plant would have produced power for 24 hours.
               | 
               | To simplify if you have 8 hours of power and you store
               | 1/2 of it you need 4h of storage. So our hypothetical 4GW
               | solar power plant produces 2GW for 8 hours and 1 GW for
               | 16. That already batter fits the demand curve than steady
               | state output.
               | 
               | However things get better if you instead consider real
               | world demand and the actual production of solar panels
               | being spread across the entire day a 4 hour of storage is
               | close to perfect. Except, the real world isn't a
               | hypothetical 100% solar grid so 2h ends up working fine
               | in most areas.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | Again, the demand curve is the opposite of what you
               | claim: peak production happens during the night, at
               | around 9 pm, not during the day. You'd need to supply
               | more energy during periods of non-production, not less.
               | You can't get away with 50% output at night, unless you
               | have some other energy source picking up the slack. And
               | remember, during the winter you're getting less than 12
               | hours of sunlight, maybe even less than that if you
               | consider that cloud cover eliminates 75-90% of solar
               | power output.
               | 
               | These factors do depend on geography. Hotter climates do
               | see more energy use during the day to power A/C. But on
               | the flip side, colder climates see even more energy
               | demand during the night to heat homes. And unfortunately
               | this also coincides when solar is producing the least
               | amount of energy due to fewer sunlight hours, axial tilt,
               | and more cloud cover.
               | 
               | There are niches solar can carve out: Las Vegas and
               | Australia have loads of empty space, clear weather, and
               | hydroelectricity that can fill in periods of non-
               | production. But nuclear power is a much more flexible
               | solution. All you really need is water to cool the
               | reactor, and 80% of the population lives within a hundred
               | miles of the coastline (you just need water, not fresh
               | water).
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | This is the Australia energy market price and demand
               | dashboard[1].
               | 
               | Note the two peaks: 1 happens at 7am. There's very little
               | solar at 7am even though the sun is up, but _demand_ is
               | at a maximum. The other happens at around 6pm - when
               | people get home. There 's also very little solar at 6pm
               | (sun sets at 5pm in Winter, during the day it's longer).
               | 
               | Also note the demand fall off in the evening: that's a
               | very lopsided peak, because people stay at home (whereas
               | in the morning they turn on the kettle, then leave). But
               | also note the absolute magnitudes: at the minimum, which
               | is about 4am, demand last night bottomed at about
               | 6,800MW. The peak was 9,800MW. So even the "low demand"
               | was 2/3rds of peak demand, and it took 8 hours to get
               | there. Most of the night, consumption was a lot higher.
               | 
               | But it gets worse: _before_ you 're going to recover any
               | real capacity from your solar, the _largest_ demand of
               | the day is about to happen in 3 hours, with the sun just
               | barely over the horizon.
               | 
               | [1] https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-
               | systems/electricity/national-e...
        
               | ComputerGuru wrote:
               | That's for March 31st, presumably in the northern
               | hemisphere. I _assume_ the curve looks dramatically
               | different for July 31st.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | The curve also looks dramatically different in January
               | 31st. March is about the middle between summer and
               | winter.
        
         | merpnderp wrote:
         | The good news is that after it is paid for, it will cost about
         | $20-$25/MWh. The bad news is that at least for the few decades
         | it will cost $75, which is about the same as solar+battery LCOE
         | today.
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | Those numbers are wildly optimistic, these overruns mean the
           | plant is going to be repaying construction costs over it's
           | full lifespan.
           | 
           | I don't know where you messed up but if you're running the
           | numbers include the full cost not just the overrun, interest
           | rates, increasing operating costs during loan repayment,
           | _capacity factor,_ and decommissioning costs. Opening costs
           | late in life is a real killer as older power plants mean ever
           | more equipment needs to be replaced which then lowers
           | capacity factors etc.
           | 
           | Also, LCOE battery backed solar is also under 60$/MWh
           | https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2022/utility-scale_pv-
           | plus-... Numbers may be slightly higher in Georgia, but still
           | well below your estimate.
        
         | krasin wrote:
         | > 4 cents per kWh.
         | 
         | For comparison: I live in SF Bay Area and pay 42 cents per kWh.
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | For comparison: I pay 6.269C/ per kWh for energy costs.
        
           | charrondev wrote:
           | For comparison I pay 6 cents per kWh in Quebec (and that's
           | Canadian money).
        
           | gweinberg wrote:
           | We are getting ripped off.
        
           | SilasX wrote:
           | Just to make sure no one misunderstands (not saying you did,
           | just that this is easy to misread):
           | 
           | The 4 cent/kWh figure is the _additional_ cost it would have
           | to charge, over the life of the plant, to make up for the
           | budget overage, and would go on top of whatever ratepayers
           | would have to pay for its  "regular" energy output.
           | 
           | Further pedantry: you'd have to factor in time value, so that
           | kind of understates it, as the entity that built it would
           | have had to borrow that much more to finish, and pay back
           | with interest.
        
             | krasin wrote:
             | Thanks. I can now see how my comment could be
             | misunderstood.
             | 
             | My point is that while 4 cents per kWh for 50 years is a
             | very big number in terms of cost overruns and the taxpayers
             | in Georgia will have to eat it, I as a California resident,
             | somehow pay through the nose despite abundant and cheap
             | solar energy, especially during the daytime.
        
               | dv_dt wrote:
               | We have our own nuclear albatrosses that we are
               | overpaying for in California.
        
               | llsf wrote:
               | Nuclear power plants now run more than 50 years. We are
               | pushing some to 80 years already.
               | 
               | https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/whats-lifespan-
               | nuclear-re...
        
         | yodelshady wrote:
         | If you ever doubt that the US has a simply fucking _insane_
         | advantage in primary resource extraction and consumption,
         | consider your comment. You think $40 per MWh is _expensive_.
         | 
         |  _Wholesale_ rates in Europe hit SIX HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE
         | EUROS PER MWh last year because of gas supply issues _and
         | unfavorable weather_. Spot prices have gone higher still, over
         | one order of magnitude higher actually, those were futures
         | contracts for a useful period of time. Because THAT 'S WHAT
         | PEOPLE WILL PAY WHEN THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE.
         | 
         | Consumer rates of 30 cents per kWh are perfectly normal. 100
         | not unheard of.
         | 
         | Oh, fun fact; the largest producer of nuclear power in Europe
         | is suing its government because it was forbidden from selling
         | at that market rate. It _had_ to sell at 40 cents per kWh. Not
         | to consumers of course, to the _fucking glorious private
         | sector_ , aka resellers, who _did_ sell it to consumers at
         | market rate. The ones who hadn 't gone bankrupt and fucked off
         | earlier when market conditions were against them, that is.
         | Although they did spend a _lot_ arguing, successfully, they
         | didn 't need to pay producers then, either. Because _the
         | glorious efficient private sector can 't have competition_.
         | 
         | Yes, I'm bitter. Going to an industry conference and seeing no
         | one able to run plants properly because of unreliable power,
         | whilst neighouring Germany sets a new coal-burning record, in
         | unnatural heat, does that.
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | Texas spot prices recently peaked at 9,000$/MWh briefly
           | that's in no way what I am talking about.
           | 
           | 4c/KWh is the minimum additional cost across 50 years
           | ignoring interest not the total cost of this power. In other
           | words if inflation adjusted electricity would have been
           | X$/kWh in 2070 it's now at least X + 4c / kWh whatever the
           | baseline would have been. Europes average electricity prices
           | for the year aren't that far above average, across 50 years
           | it's a tiny blip by comparison.
        
           | Raphaellll wrote:
           | Tell me more about that coal burning record in Germany.
        
           | blibble wrote:
           | > Oh, fun fact; the largest producer of nuclear power in
           | Europe is suing its government because it was forbidden from
           | selling at that market rate. It had to sell at 40 cents per
           | kWh. Not to consumers of course, to the fucking glorious
           | private sector, aka resellers, who did sell it to consumers
           | at market rate.
           | 
           | don't you all love the European Union's Single Electricity
           | Market?
        
         | arh68 wrote:
         | 2 units, both 1,100 MW each. So 2 cents / kWh.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | chroma wrote:
       | The Nuclear Regulatory Commission was established in 1975. Since
       | then, no plant license that was initially submitted to the NRC
       | has started operations.
       | 
       | Plant Vogtle was approved by the Atomic Energy Commission (the
       | predecessor to the NRC). Their license was grandfathered in.
       | Building this reactor required a new reactor license (not plant
       | license). Shortly after the reactor design was approved and
       | construction started, the federal government added new rules
       | about containment vessels being resilient to passenger aircraft
       | impact. The NRC applied these rules retroactively, causing the
       | containment vessel to be redesigned and construction to be
       | halted.[1] The companies working with the NRC are reluctant to
       | criticize regulators, as they fear retaliation from the NRC. The
       | NRC supervises and approves each step of nuclear reactor
       | construction, making it very difficult to schedule work with
       | contractors and suppliers. Honestly, it's amazing this plant was
       | built at all.
       | 
       | 1. https://www.ans.org/news/article-1646/root-cause-of-
       | vogtle-a...
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | The NRC was established just about when the first nuclear
         | buildout collapsed under the weight of its own foolishness.
         | Massive cost overruns did nuclear no favors whatsoever, clearly
         | inadequate safety (especially on those first generation BWRs;
         | hello Fukushima), and (most devastatingly) the deregulation of
         | the US electricity grid, with PURPA (in 1978) and later steps
         | opening grids to non-utility providers. Nuclear projects that
         | would make sense for a monopoly utility (hey, let's boost the
         | capital spending to increase our regulated earnings) no longer
         | made any sense in a competitive market.
        
           | chroma wrote:
           | Fukushima shows that even early nuclear reactors are
           | incredibly safe. You take an aging plant based on an outdated
           | design, construct it in an unsafe location, then hit it with
           | the fifth-largest earthquake ever recorded, then hit it with
           | a 20 foot high tsunami, and then it _explodes_... and what
           | were the casualties? One worker and maybe 50 early deaths due
           | to cancers. A typical coal power plant kills more people
           | every year from the air pollution it spews out. And don 't
           | forget that the cause of the meltdown was an earthquake and
           | tsunami that killed 20,000 people!
           | 
           | If we judged other forms of power generation the way we judge
           | nuclear, we simply wouldn't have electricity.
        
             | chickenchicken wrote:
             | It shows that the people who considered the location and
             | plant to be safe enough to be wrong.
        
               | wskinner wrote:
               | If your standard for "safe enough" is that no one will
               | directly die or be injured, ever, then the only feasible
               | solution is no electricity at all.
        
             | d_sem wrote:
             | People often fail to compare the opportunity cost of
             | alternative methods to nuclear power. At that time the
             | alternative to nuclear was coal power plants. Radioactive
             | carbon isotopes have harmed many times more people than
             | Nuclear.
        
               | ImaCake wrote:
               | Coal dust, sans radioactive stuff, and coal burning
               | emissions also exact a terrible toll on respiratory
               | health. A lot of people have died, or had much worse
               | lives, thanks to the widespread use of coal.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Coal contains no significant radioactive carbon. All the
               | radioisotopes of carbon have half life many orders of
               | magnitude smaller than the age of coal deposits.
               | 
               | Coal contains other radioactive elements, though.
               | However, the quantity of these is still usually less than
               | the quantity that needs to be mined to power a light
               | water reactor.
        
             | ImaCake wrote:
             | Absolutely agree with this take. Coal power plants are a
             | public health disaster on the scale of leaded petrol and no
             | one talks about it. Even wind turbines have a terrible
             | impact on birdlife. The arguments against nuclear are
             | irrational; future generations will wonder what was wrong
             | with people in the late 20th century.
        
             | cauch wrote:
             | The number of nuclear plants is so small that any example
             | is statistically anecdotical.
             | 
             | Yes, Fukushima did not kill much. Is it because the nuclear
             | is in itself super safe, or is it because we were lucky? We
             | would need ~100 Fukushima before even having a rough
             | estimation.
             | 
             | I think risk cannot be counted as "number of deaths", but
             | as "capacity of losing control". Cars and cows kill a lot
             | of humans. Yet, their risks are controllable: it is not
             | true that if just few things change or if the circumstances
             | are slightly unlucky, suddenly, they will do 1'000 times
             | more deaths. With this way of thinking, we can understand
             | better why scientists are worried about pandemic rather
             | than common cold, even if before the last pandemic (and
             | maybe during, whatever) common colds was killing more.
             | 
             | And it works with coal too: unpredicted effects of global
             | warming are a way of losing control, and it is why
             | scientists are so adamant about stopping using coal.
             | 
             | I don't think it is true that we have judged the other
             | forms of power generation differently than the way we judge
             | nuclear. We judge the same way: based on our current
             | understanding of how easy it is to keep or lose control.
             | 
             | Sure, coal is dangerous and has unpredicted effects. But
             | the reason it was treated differently is because the
             | capacity of losing control with coal were not at all
             | obvious from the start, while they were written in black
             | and white from the start for nuclear.
        
             | wkat4242 wrote:
             | Human deaths aren't the only measure of safety.
             | 
             | Pollution into the ocean from Fukushima was huge,
             | unfortunately.
             | 
             | Just because it's not as bad as Chernobyl (which was as
             | worst-case as it gets) doesn't mean it's safe.
        
         | fluxem wrote:
         | It's brings a lot confidence that a nuclear power was built
         | through a legal loophole.
        
       | epistasis wrote:
       | This project is what killed nuclear in the US. Not regulations,
       | not the NRC, just plain old incompetence, bad planning, bad EPC,
       | bad design.
       | 
       | The AP1000 was supposed to be a "modular" design, where most of
       | the difficult welding could be done off site and delivered
       | complete, with paperwork. And failure in this modularity is what
       | caused the project to be such a flop, and essentially kill all
       | new large nuclear in the US (people are trying "small" modular,
       | but their target costs are still far too high to be economically
       | feasible).
       | 
       | See, for example, this 2017 report on just one aspect of what
       | went wrong:
       | 
       | https://www.enr.com/articles/43325-witness-to-the-origins-of...
       | 
       | > To build the first new nuclear reactors in the U.S. in three
       | decades--South Carolina's V.C. Summer Units 2 and 3 and Georgia's
       | Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4--the design and construction team
       | would face a steep learning curve. However, says Hartz, learning
       | wasn't much of a priority in the rush to start work at Lake
       | Charles. "They were clueless" about the complex geometry of
       | nuclear welds, the nuclear supply chain and the need for a
       | nuclear safety culture, he notes, adding, "I wasn't a whistle-
       | blower. I was just a senior procurement manager who was
       | concerned."
       | 
       | > Westinghouse would issue drawings to Shaw Nuclear in Charlotte.
       | When Shaw reviewed the drawings and asked Westinghouse to correct
       | a detail, problems ensued. The work processes were unnecessarily
       | complicated by the separation of the team members. Giving an
       | example of how the process got out of hand, Hartz says that, if a
       | design called for a 3/8-in.-wide, 12-in.-long fillet weld, the
       | welder might make it 14 in. long. "Instead of having Westinghouse
       | right there saying, 'That's no problem,' " recalls Hartz, "we had
       | to write a nonconformance report that was processed and reviewed
       | by Shaw and then sent to Westinghouse for disposition. It was
       | insane. From Lake Charles to Pittsburgh to Charlotte then back to
       | Shaw Modular before the red nonconformance tag could be taken
       | off, saying it's OK now." He adds, "Each change went through the
       | same tortuous path, taking months and months."
        
         | sidewndr46 wrote:
         | In regards to the story about the weld length, that is the
         | process working as intended. As a constructor you don't just
         | decide that something can be a different dimension. And as a
         | engineer you don't just stand "right there" saying "That's no
         | problem". That is how people get killed.
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | I 100% agree that such changes need to be checked, but that's
           | not the point of the anecdote. The point is that this process
           | took months rather than being streamlined.
           | 
           | It is a management failure to make common necessary things,
           | like signing off on small changes, a month long process.
           | 
           | This sort of bad management is endemic throughout the entire
           | build.
           | 
           | Which is to say, the problem isn't the regulation requiring
           | that things are build as designed, the problem is the
           | management structure that makes such changes so uneconomical,
           | combined with the frequency of such changes due to
           | miscommunication between designers and builders.
        
       | ryan93 wrote:
       | So to power every home in the USA would roughly cost 3 trillion
       | at these prices. if they reused the same teams and designs maybe
       | they could get it somewhat cheaper. plus we have increasing
       | renewable plus existing hydro and nuclear. for the price of a
       | year or two of national debt we could go full renewable in this
       | country.
        
         | topspin wrote:
         | > 3 trillion
         | 
         | The US federal budget deficit was 2.8 trillion in 2021. One
         | year. I can't remember any US leader of any party even
         | mentioning it.
        
         | justrealist wrote:
         | So we could decarbonize the entire US power grid for what we
         | spent on COVID relief/stimulus?
         | 
         | That seems like a good deal, even without economies of scale...
        
           | coldpie wrote:
           | Yup. The Georgia plant seems expensive until you remember it
           | cost half of what Twitter did.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | $30B is more than half of $44B.
        
           | Scoundreller wrote:
           | Not just decarbonize, but become a major fossil fuel exporter
           | and be all smug about like a certain Nordic country...
        
             | JohnFen wrote:
             | > become a major fossil fuel exporter
             | 
             | Wouldn't doing that undo a lot of the gains from this? If
             | we export fossil fuels instead of burning them, we aren't
             | really decarbonizing. We're just having the carbonization
             | take place somewhere else.
        
               | justrealist wrote:
               | It offsets significant carbon production elsewhere
               | (especially if we only export natgas), and defunds from
               | some of the worst governments on earth.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | > It offsets significant carbon production elsewhere
               | 
               | Does it? Or does it simply increase the amount of fossil
               | fuels being used elsewhere?
               | 
               | > defunds from some of the worst governments on earth.
               | 
               | That has nothing to do with decarbonization, though.
        
               | slt2021 wrote:
               | you are right, oil extraction is literally producing
               | carbon (which is then processed and burned at later stage
               | somewhere else)
               | 
               | so we need to separate: carbon production and carbon
               | emissions.
               | 
               | a lot of so called decarbonized industries are
               | decarbonized simply because they outsourced carbon
               | intensive parts to third world, but carbon is still being
               | produced and emitted.
               | 
               | I think this is why some people are supporting De-Growth
               | movement, that just by reducing consumption of
               | nonessential stuff, we would decrease carbon production
               | and emissions globally
        
         | aschearer wrote:
         | What if climage change is a big hoax and we create a better
         | world for nothing?[1]
         | 
         | [1]: 2009 -
         | https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/1e/What_if_it%27...
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | The alternative isn't carbon emission, the alternative is far
           | cheaper wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, battery storage (both
           | lithium and many others)
           | 
           | The only question is if nuclear can offer something
           | compelling to keep it in the mix. We have roughly 100 1GW of
           | nuclear reactors in the US that are reaching end of life, and
           | 90% of those communities would like to see replacements to
           | keep the jobs in town. However, nobody will ever invest in a
           | project that looks like Vogtle, due to the cost.
           | Unfortunately, recent projects in France, Finland, and the UK
           | all look quite similar in cost of dollars and time.
           | 
           | Which is to say, that nuclear will not be able to provide a
           | climate solution at all. It's too late, we can not even build
           | 100 rectors in the next 15 years to replace what needs to be
           | retired!
           | 
           | If nuclear advocates want more nuclear, they need to focus on
           | the details and the engineering and the management, not
           | merely rah-rah for the tech. The devil is in the details, and
           | projects like Vogtle have virtually guaranteed that nuclear
           | will not be built in the US in quantity for at least a
           | generation.
        
       | coldpie wrote:
       | Awesome! Nuclear is a fantastic and needed addition to the grid.
       | The cost was high, but still quite cheap relative to the cost of
       | continuing to build & run fossil fuel plants. It's a real shame
       | we let 30+ years slip by, letting our ability to build projects
       | like this wither. I hope there's lessons learned from this
       | experience that will help get costs down for future plants. This
       | should spur discussions on streamlining the regulatory side of
       | things, and there's a lot of exciting stuff going on in modular
       | reactors.
       | 
       | (In case it needs saying, which it shouldn't: yes, we should be
       | building out wind & solar, too! We need all hands on deck, wind,
       | solar, and nuclear, right now, to kill coal. We already blew our
       | chance to do it cheaply, so now we have to pay the price.)
        
         | tracker1 wrote:
         | Mostly agree... though I think Solar tech still needs to
         | improve a bit. Nuclear power is definitely needed for the grid,
         | though preferably more inland in places less likely to be
         | affected by natural disaster. I get why the NY plant was
         | closed.
         | 
         | I also hope that the build and cost timelines can be shortened.
         | I think the push for electric cars is a bit of a miss in this,
         | only because the grid needs to improve dramatically before such
         | efforts can be effective and are barely keeping pace with
         | current demands.
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | I think you have that reversed, solar is great, and nuclear
           | needs to improve.
           | 
           | Nuclear is rather old tech, and the more we learn about it
           | the more expensive it gets. It's not a good fit for modern
           | economies, because construction is so labor intensive and
           | difficult to automate. Plus, the industry itself is a
           | managerial failure and can't plan or execute on those plans
           | effectively.
           | 
           | Storage is a great complement to the grid, because it lessens
           | the need for transmission. And our original "storage" on the
           | grid, hydro, was put there to deal with the shortcomings of
           | nuclear, if you listen to Jigar Shah (though he is far far
           | more bullish than me on the ability of the nuclear industry
           | to deliver in the future).
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | EV's have a fairly trivial impact on the grid. Cars last 25+
           | years so even if everyone all new cars where EV's we are
           | talking less than 1% increase in total electricity demand per
           | year. The grid has expanded dramatically faster at several
           | points.
           | 
           | Even more importantly we can shift most of that demand to
           | cheaper times of the day or even day of the week.
        
             | bigbillheck wrote:
             | > Cars last 25+ years
             | 
             | This is not a truth universally acknowledged.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | The average age of cars on the road in the US is 12
               | years. There aren't many 100 year old cars skewing the
               | average, so that implies that most cars last over 24
               | years.
        
           | colatkinson wrote:
           | Ehh Indian Point (the NY plant) wasn't really a concern with
           | regards to natural disasters. We get some occasional (very
           | minor) earthquakes and a hurricane once in a decade or so,
           | but I doubt the latter would do much vs many tons of
           | reinforced concrete.
           | 
           | The plant definitely had issues -- some due to age
           | (construction started in 1956!), some due to mismanagement,
           | and some due to dumb regulations [0]. My chem class went
           | there on a field trip in high school, and the guy giving the
           | tour definitely gave off "engineer who has been overruled by
           | management in very dumb ways" vibes while explaining that
           | their waste silos were almost full because they weren't
           | allowed to transport the spent rods across state lines so
           | that they could be recycled back into fissile materials.
           | 
           | As an aside, the control rooms had a real "retro-futurism"
           | look. Lots of manual dials and brightly-colored plastics [1].
           | Gene Roddenberry eat your heart out, etc.
           | 
           | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Point_Energy_Center
           | #Saf...
           | 
           | [1]: https://www.lohud.com/story/opinion/2016/02/12/indian-
           | point-...
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | Nuclear is not a needed addition to the grid, unless you have a
         | compulsion to waste money.
        
       | Slava_Propanei wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | mikece wrote:
       | > ...seven years late and $17 billion over budget...
       | 
       | And how much of that was a result of red tape from the NRC, DOE,
       | and EPA?
        
         | epistasis wrote:
         | It's easy to find detailed retrospectives of the multitude of
         | failures here.
         | 
         | I haven't found a single one that said excess regulation was a
         | problem, but I have found a huge number that showed project
         | management, bad design, bad communication between engineers and
         | EPC, etc. were all to blame.
         | 
         | Here's one I was reading recently from 2017, about the welding
         | issues. Every other aspect, such as concrete, exhibited similar
         | failures.
         | 
         | https://www.enr.com/articles/43325-witness-to-the-origins-of...
         | 
         | But if you have an idea of which regulations to change, or how
         | to fix project management, you can pick up a half-completed
         | pair of reactors in South Carolina on the cheap. That
         | boondoggle often gets forgotten when examining Vogtle.
        
         | pavlov wrote:
         | I don't know, but new nuclear projects in the West tend to be
         | extremely late and over budget even with friendly regulators.
         | 
         | Olkiluoto 3 in Finland is a Gen 3 reactor that just came online
         | earlier this year. Its original target date was 2010. The
         | original budget was 3 billion euros, but the final cost was
         | over 11 billion.
         | 
         | The project was of great national importance because this
         | single unit provides around 14% of power to the country, and
         | the Finnish nuclear power regulator was extremely motivated to
         | make it happen. So the delays and cost overruns were not due to
         | red tape.
        
       | glimshe wrote:
       | One project in 30 years doesn't benefit from economies of scale.
       | Nuclear is the only hope we have to make up for the gaps in
       | generation for solar and wind. Solar and Wind should be used
       | whenever possible, but they are not 100% of our solution mix,
       | even if they are the majority.
       | 
       | If we want to mitigate the impact of climate change, we need to
       | invest in decreasing Nuclear costs and building _many_ more
       | plants in the US.
        
         | KerrAvon wrote:
         | Counterpoint just because someone has to go against the pro-
         | nuclear orthodoxy here: economy of scale won't fix nuclear
         | power. You will never get the cost (or risk) down far enough
         | with existing technology, and none of the advanced technologies
         | have panned out so far. And large scale renewables + battery
         | storage are good enough.
        
           | glimshe wrote:
           | The problem is that you are comparing a hypothetical with a
           | proven system. Nuclear works, and works in large scale in a
           | lot of places - heavy users include France, Lithuania, Sweden
           | and Belgium.
           | 
           | One can argue about costs, but costs are at least low enough
           | to be viable, otherwise these countries couldn't exist as
           | they do. You can say that the costs are being externalized to
           | taxes or some other place, but _these societies are being
           | able to absorb these costs_ in aggregate. Nuclear might not
           | be cheaper than gas and oil, but it 's possible to build a
           | modern industrial society with nuclear.
           | 
           | Now contrast with green hydrogen generation and battery
           | storage, for instance. These approaches aren't working in
           | country-level scales _anywhere_. We compare hypotheticals
           | with systems that, despite problems, costs and limitations,
           | _are known to work_.
        
             | legulere wrote:
             | France has massive problems with their reactors and leads
             | the world with only 62.6% from nuclear. A comparable number
             | to Denmark that has almost no hydro power. There are
             | several countries with higher percentage of renewables up
             | to 100%.
             | 
             | Costs aren't the only problem, new nuclear reactors simply
             | cannot be build fast enough to counteract the climate
             | crisis.
        
               | KptMarchewa wrote:
               | > France has massive problems with their reactors and
               | leads the world with only 62.6% from nuclear.
               | 
               | Yet, France consistently produces half of Germany's CO2
               | per capita: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.C
               | O2E.PC?location...
               | 
               | I would consider that a giant success of nuclear energy.
               | 
               | > A comparable number to Denmark that has almost no hydro
               | power.
               | 
               | Denmark is not relevant - they import giant majority of
               | their energy. Right now they barely produce at all:
               | https://i.imgur.com/69SI5J9.png
               | 
               | > Costs aren't the only problem, new nuclear reactors
               | simply cannot be build fast enough to counteract the
               | climate crisis.
               | 
               | They could be build fast enough if we did it _seriously_,
               | and not as vanity projects.
               | 
               | https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/2027347/south-
               | korea-s... Is the suggestion to just import the energy?
        
               | belorn wrote:
               | Are you talking about consumption or production?
               | 
               | In term of production a country can easily go above 100%
               | renewable by selling a lot of it during periods of
               | optimal conditions. Naturally, a country can not above
               | 100% in terms of consumption. Denmark for example is a
               | massive exporter in terms of production, but also a
               | massive importer in terms of consumption and has a very
               | large dependency on imports. They are not self sufficient
               | despite producing more energy that they themselves
               | consume.
        
           | coldpie wrote:
           | > And large scale renewables + battery storage are good
           | enough.
           | 
           | I wish this were true, but I haven't seen convincing evidence
           | that it is. Up here in Minnesota, we heat our homes with
           | natural gas. Once that's converted to electric, that's a
           | _lot_ of energy to generate and store, and it has to be
           | absolutely reliable for six straight months or you're talking
           | mass death. Nuclear seems like a perfect fit for this
           | scenario. I think it's a poor choice to take it off the
           | table.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | Generating green hydrogen with renewables and then burning
             | it in combined cycle plants would be cheaper than Vogtle-
             | level nuclear.
        
           | Slava_Propanei wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | jtc331 wrote:
           | Nuclear and renewables/batteries actually have the same
           | biggest problem: the vast majority of the cost of future
           | energy is up front capital costs. That's what makes natural
           | gas so attractive: the vast majority of costs are fuel
           | amortized over the lifetime of power generation.
           | 
           | That's the thing we need to fix regardless of the power
           | source.
        
           | zamalek wrote:
           | > or risk
           | 
           | That really casts doubt on your assertions. Nuclear carries
           | significantly fewer risks than coal (which operates in the
           | nuclear failure state all the time).
        
             | kibwen wrote:
             | Nobody's arguing in favor of building more coal plants. The
             | fact that nuclear is better than coal is irrelevant to the
             | discussion of what new plants to build.
        
         | cycomanic wrote:
         | Large infrastructure projects (and nuclear is certainly one)
         | don't benefit from economies of scale. Half of a nuclear power
         | plant is essentially the same as a coal plant and they have not
         | gone down in price either.
         | 
         | The reality is even assuming that we can not overcome shortages
         | in solar and wind by overprovisioning and storage (and studies
         | say otherwise), it does not make any sense to build nuclear
         | instead of solar/wind as long as we are still running coal. We
         | get much bigger CO2 reduction bang for our buck with solar and
         | wind. Building nuclear would therefore effectively increase our
         | CO2 over alternatives. This is especially true as nuclear
         | plants have a relatively long ROI (in terms of CO2.
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | > Nuclear is the only hope we have to do to make up for the
         | gaps in generation for solar and wind.
         | 
         | Nuclear would be entirely unsuited for this task. Nuclear
         | provides baseload, it doesn't fill in gaps. If you try to run
         | the reactor intermittently to counterbalance an intermittent
         | source the cost of its output increases massively.
        
           | belorn wrote:
           | That is true when the market price is fairly static and
           | doesn't change much. This is how it used to be when fossil
           | fueled power dominated the grid, since the biggest cost is
           | the fuel and that could scale based on demand.
           | 
           | For EU this is no longer the case. The difference in market
           | price between low and high can be above 100x. In theory a
           | power plant could earn as much in 4 days as an other plant
           | earn in a year worth of power generation. This is why all
           | those nations started to bailout the power bills of
           | businesses and citizens last winter. A single month for some
           | people costed more than a years worth of power. For companies
           | with contract obligations, paying what ever the market
           | demanded was the lesser evil.
           | 
           | The US is not in the same situation, but the energy grid
           | there is still a market based one. There is also other
           | technologies that could in theory compete in such volatile
           | market.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | Those high points are better addressed by such things as
             | hydrogen-burning turbines. Hydrogen produced from excess
             | renewables during the price troughs, stored underground,
             | then burned at the peaks. Because the capacity factor of
             | these turbines would be low the cost of fuel would be
             | acceptable, and their capital cost would be an order of
             | magnitude below what a nuclear plant would cost, per unit
             | of power output.
             | 
             | Europe has enough salt formations to store many petawatt
             | hours of hydrogen, far far more than would be needed.
        
               | belorn wrote:
               | People are naturally allowed to invest in what ever
               | technology they think will fit the role best, such as
               | green hydrogen. No one is investing in that, there exist
               | no hydrogen-burning turbines that burn green hydrogen,
               | but someone could become the first and do that.
               | 
               | Producers of green hydrogen are currently more interested
               | in delivering green steel, which pays much better than
               | hydrogen-burning turbines. The general idea is that this
               | will in the future reduce prices down to energy grid
               | levels, and a researcher here in Sweden working on such
               | project estimated prices to drop to those levels around
               | ~2060-2080.
               | 
               | This could happen much earlier if prices continue to
               | increase as they do, but who knows. It would make for a
               | good A/B testing to produce both and see which one was
               | the cheaper option, and if the green hydrogen power plant
               | fail they can always just produce more hydrogen for steel
               | production.
        
           | XorNot wrote:
           | This is such an incredible misrepresentation. The only thing
           | nuclear can't do is respond to sudden demand surges. But
           | that's what batteries _can_ do (it 's also the only thing
           | they can do well).
           | 
           | This[1] is the Australian energy market operator dashboard.
           | Note the demand curve. It is _not_ sudden in anyway - it is
           | highly, highly predictable. Nuclear reactors can handle that
           | sort of curve just fine - you roll the control rods in when
           | it 's low, pull them out when it's high.
           | 
           | The "inability" of nuclear reactors to handle variable loads
           | is to do with the thermal mass of the reactor pile which
           | can't be changed rapidly, but electrical load generally
           | _doesn 't_ change rapidly - it changes very, very predictably
           | at large scale.
           | 
           | Nuclear reactors can handle normal electrical demand flows
           | just fine.
           | 
           | [1] https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-
           | systems/electricity/national-e...
        
             | blibble wrote:
             | you can nuclear in load following mode (France does)
             | 
             | but it hurts the economic efficiency massively, as costs
             | for nuclear are almost entirely fixed at construction time
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | Your counterargument there betrays a complete
             | misunderstanding of the point I was making.
             | 
             | I wasn't claiming that nuclear power plants couldn't
             | technically ramp up and down. I will happily stipulate that
             | they could. I was arguing it was economically ludicrous to
             | do so. That's because most of the costs of nuclear are
             | fixed: capital cost, financing costs, fixed manpower costs.
             | If you operate the power plant at low capacity factor, the
             | cost per unit of energy produced increases inversely, just
             | because these fixed costs are being spread over less
             | output.
             | 
             | Nuclear either makes sense for baseload or it doesn't make
             | sense at all. Trying to retreat to an application for which
             | it isn't suited, like covering for intermittent renewables,
             | is a losing game. There are any number of alternatives that
             | would be much cheaper.
        
         | jakewins wrote:
         | Nuclear is dope and we should build tons of it, but it ain't
         | our only hope; plenty of other alternatives to build at the
         | same time.
         | 
         | Eg hydro, overprovisioning solar or wind, transmission to
         | remove local weather variations, coupling wind and solar,
         | demand flexibility.
         | 
         | Fervo just started its first full-scale new-gen geothermal
         | plant, for instance; 24/7 firm power. You might like David
         | Roberts interview with Tim Latimer about it:
         | https://www.volts.wtf/p/enhanced-geothermal-power-is-finally...
        
           | forrestthewoods wrote:
           | Hydro isn't clean (extreme ecosystem damage, both up and down
           | stream); and if we dammed every river it's a drop in the
           | bucket of what we need.
           | 
           | I don't know how far solar/wind can get us. But hydro sucks
           | more than most people realize.
        
             | switchbak wrote:
             | Canada's energy mix is roughly 60% hydro, and some
             | provinces are well past 90%. You ought to check your
             | numbers.
        
               | forrestthewoods wrote:
               | No offense, but Canada isn't relevant on the global
               | scale.
               | 
               | Hydro use is growing, especially in developing countries.
               | However it's a shrinking percentage of total energy
               | generation. There is an absolute cap on theoretical hydro
               | energy production, and it isn't enough.
               | 
               | Hydro is low carbon and renewable. But it isn't green,
               | and it's not enough.
        
               | KptMarchewa wrote:
               | Canada is second-largest country by area, occupying
               | around 6.5% of Earth's land surface. It's only 37th by
               | population, with 0.5% of world's population. It's very
               | non-representative example.
        
             | thatswrong0 wrote:
             | My assumption is that rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere
             | pose a much greater existential threat to humanity than
             | localized ecosystem damage resulting from river blockages.
             | But maybe I'm wrong.
             | 
             | Speaking of hydro, I do think pumped hydro-storage ought to
             | be looked at a lot more for energy storage (esp. versus
             | giant lithium-ion battery banks), especially as we
             | transition to inconsistent renewable sources like solar and
             | wind. I'd assume that creating new, isolated bodies of
             | water wouldn't incur as much ecological damage as blocking
             | off existing rivers or greatly increasing our mining of
             | rare earth minerals)
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | But it isn't "localized ecosystem damage". Building dams
               | absolutely fucking destroys the ecosystems upstream and
               | downstream. It's the civil engineering of burning the
               | crops when you retreat. The "new" ecosystem has nothing
               | in common with the prior ecosystems.
        
             | jakewins wrote:
             | True but PV+wind make our existing dams go much further -
             | recall most of them operate as giant annual batteries, they
             | refill in the rainy season once per year, then dispense
             | that energy over the dry season.
             | 
             | Adding PV means hydro can save much more of its water, just
             | dispensing to "fill in the gaps". This is already how the
             | hydro in Norway and Sweden operates, you can see it daily
             | if you look at the hourly power breakdowns by generation
             | type.
             | 
             | But I agree, I hope we will get to a point where we can
             | decommission the big dams..
        
               | xyzzyz wrote:
               | > recall most of them operate as giant annual batteries,
               | they refill in the rainy season once per year, then
               | dispense that energy over the dry season
               | 
               | That's not quite how it works.
               | 
               | Consider the biggest hydro project in US, the Columbia
               | river, with its 14 dams.
               | 
               | The system does fill up in the rainy season, but the
               | crucial thing is that it's not the dams that do fill up,
               | but rather the whole watershed, meaning things like
               | snowfall and ground water. This means that we have very
               | limited amount of control over when we let the water
               | through. We can't just dam the river for an extended
               | period: if we don't use it for generating power, we must
               | spill (waste) it. This means in practice that the dams
               | are _not_ batteries: to a large degree, it's use-it-or-
               | lose-it.
               | 
               | To make these into batteries, we'd need to somehow
               | refurbish the dams to tremendously increase the power
               | generating capacity on each dam, so that instead of
               | assumption of continuous flow (either through turbines or
               | spillways), we make the flow more intermittent, so that
               | we can make up for closed times by pushing more water
               | through during open times.
               | 
               | This is tremendously difficult in practice: dams are
               | simply not designed to allow for refurbishing with many
               | more turbines or much more flow through them than they
               | were originally designed for, the upstream reservoirs are
               | not designed for quickly varying water levels, etc.
               | 
               | Point is, we can't just "save the water".
        
               | Arrath wrote:
               | > That's not quite how it works.
               | 
               | Yeah in reality there are two forms of hydropower: the
               | classic reservoir dam, and 'run of the river'
               | powerplants. You're absolutely right, even reservoir dams
               | don't really fulfill the 'annual battery' idea, since
               | they must maintain some minimum outflow for downstream
               | consumers and can't shut it off entirely if it better
               | suits the power generation goal.
        
             | mywittyname wrote:
             | > But hydro sucks more than most people realize.
             | 
             | There's a reason Russia blew up the Kakhovka hydro dam. The
             | down-stream impacts of the flooding were more devastating
             | than what they could reasonably accomplish with
             | conventional weapons.
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | No.
               | 
               | It killed <75 people.
               | 
               | They blew up the dam because it was also a bridge and
               | removing it allowed them to redeploy troops to the east.
        
               | KptMarchewa wrote:
               | I'm as far from russia apologist as can be - but they
               | blew the bridge part few months earlier, in November.
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxHLImMbnAw
        
             | Gibbon1 wrote:
             | Looking this up.
             | 
             | https://www.usbr.gov/lc/hooverdam/faqs/powerfaq.html
             | 
             | > Hoover Dam generates, on average, about 4 billion
             | kilowatt-hours. And the lake covers an area of 1,495,806
             | acres
             | 
             | Rough estimate, 2GW worth of solar produces that much in a
             | year. And requires I think 12000 acres of land. (Open to
             | have phat fingered the calcs)
             | 
             | My take away is it's not even economic anymore and requires
             | flooding 100 times more land then a solar plant.
        
               | ZeroGravitas wrote:
               | Dams still get built for non-power reasons, to manage
               | water supplies, so adding turbines (and floating solar
               | PV) to them might make sense, but yes I think we're now
               | at the point where new hydro purely for energy production
               | is going to struggle to make a case for itself against
               | just deploying renewables and batteries and
               | interconnects.
               | 
               | edit: to add some context re the Hoover dam:
               | 
               | > Upon becoming Secretary of Commerce in 1921, Hoover
               | proposed the construction of a dam on the Colorado River.
               | In addition to flood control and irrigation, it would
               | provide a dependable supply of water for Los Angeles and
               | Southern California.
        
               | KptMarchewa wrote:
               | It's not exactly relevant how much solar produces per
               | year - it's very important _when_ the energy can be
               | produced and how much you can control that.
        
             | Manuel_D wrote:
             | Hydro is only source of renewable power that generates >50%
             | of any country's electricity grid: https://en.wikipedia.org
             | /wiki/List_of_countries_by_renewable...
             | 
             | Wind caps out at 42% with Denmark, solar at 15% in
             | Australia. Many countries have nearly 100% of their
             | electricity coming from hydroelectricity. Besides nuclear
             | power, hydroelectricity is one of the few non-intermittent
             | sources of renewable energy - sure, rainfall does
             | technically make hydro intermittent in a sense, but it's
             | not going to change output on a dime when the sun goes down
             | or the wind stops blowing.
             | 
             | Well, you also have geothermal power, but that's even more
             | geographically constrained than hydro.
        
             | newZWhoDis wrote:
             | Absolute nonsense. Your attitude is actively harmful to
             | decarbonization.
             | 
             | Ecosystem change =/= ecosystem destruction. The lake
             | produced by a dam is a far more beneficial ecosystem to a
             | much broader range of life than the river that preceded it
        
               | nicpottier wrote:
               | Source?
               | 
               | I like hydro but this is not at all what people I know
               | working in this field believe to be true.
        
         | chris222 wrote:
         | I'm not so sure with overprovisioning, batteries and
         | controllable load. Also pumped hydro and other gravity
         | batteries. We barely have any storage on the grid right now.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | All the coal and gas storage currently exists. We need to
           | stop using that for non-storage uses, replacing with solar
           | and wind, before we need to replace its storage function once
           | we get down to the last 15% or so of grid electricity being
           | fossil based.
        
           | weaksauce wrote:
           | > Also pumped hydro and other gravity batteries
           | 
           | pumped hydro is not a winner. the locations that could be
           | used are few and far between and require massive amounts of
           | water and wreak ecological nightmare on a wide area.
        
             | elihu wrote:
             | Pumped hydro can work anywhere that has hills. It's just a
             | lot cheaper in some locations than others, due to favorable
             | geography.
             | 
             | Water use just has to keep up with evaporation on average.
             | 
             | I'm not sure why building a reservoir needs to be an
             | "ecological nightnmare" except in the sense that it's a
             | sudden change to an environment.
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | The locations where pumped hydro could be used are
             | extremely abundant. Remember, it doesn't have to be on a
             | river. It can be out in a desert! Here's an example of a
             | project being built in Nevada. Basin and Range geography,
             | more vertical relief than you can shake a stick at. Look
             | how small this thing is for the capacity!
             | 
             | https://www.cityofelynv.gov/pdf/CityCouncil2021/cc1-28-21/W
             | h...
             | 
             | https://www.whitepinepumpedstorage.com/
             | 
             | (the whole thing could be sped up; that's a general problem
             | in the US)
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | The problem with pumped-hydro is - and all storage based
               | solutions is - how low can you let the storage get before
               | it's an emergency?
               | 
               | Electricity is a vital service: completely vital. Without
               | it, modern civilization halts. It might be annoying being
               | unable to make a cup of coffee, but municipal water and
               | sewage need electricity to work. You go without power for
               | a week, and the entire wastewater infrastructure will
               | start shutting down. Refrigeration and food storage
               | fails. Even backup fuel storage becomes a liability
               | because you need electricity to pump it around.
               | 
               | So the question is, how low can you let the reservoir
               | get? Because it's not about how long you could run going
               | from 100% to 0% - it's how much of it can you use. And we
               | have a model for this, in the form of another service:
               | city townwater supplies.
               | 
               | In Australia, water restrictions go into effect when we
               | hit <50% water capacity in the dams. That's the level at
               | which usage cuts are applied to try and ensure we don't
               | run out. At <40% we increase the severity. But this sort
               | of resource exhaustion is also _slow_ - we lose storage
               | capacity over the course of months, not days.
               | 
               | And this is a resource which is dependent on electricity
               | to supply (we also have a desalination plant, so we have
               | _some_ guaranteed capacity).
               | 
               | So within that context then - i.e. imagine you're
               | planning a nation-state electricity supply, what are your
               | risks? - how good does pumped hydro - or any storage-
               | based solution - look, when your requirement is "the
               | power cannot go off - ever". Put on your systems
               | engineering hat, treat it like a software deployment -
               | what level of redundancy and overbuild would you want
               | when you're told "this is a mission critical, safety-
               | critical system consuming an intermittently available
               | resource". How much capacity and overbuild would you
               | believe is necessary to have confidence, or even
               | decision-making capability, when pressured?
        
         | rhaway84773 wrote:
         | Until we're willing to let Iran, Pakistan, the Talibani
         | Afghanistan build nuclear power plants, nuclear is no hope of
         | anything other than an energy apartheid.
         | 
         | And that's the optimistic scenario where it actually works
         | well, scales, can be built out rapidly, and is not extremely
         | expensive.
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | How can costs be reduced? You can't skimp on over-engineering
         | nuclear reactors because they have to be designed and built to
         | deal with rare 'black swan' events, such as jetliners crashing
         | into the reactor core. E.g.
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/18/us/18nuke.html
         | 
         | > "The rule, approved by the commission in a 4-to-0 vote,
         | requires that new reactors be designed so their containment
         | structure would remain intact after a plane crash, cooling
         | systems would continue to operate and spent fuel pools would be
         | protected."
         | 
         | You can't risk a failure in the primary cooling system, and
         | since reactors need active cooling in the event of a regional
         | grid power failure just to avoid core meltdown, you need
         | onsight power generation capable of running the cooling loop
         | 24-7 (failure in this system led to the Fukushima explosions).
         | These systems (from cooling loops to steam generators) are
         | under constant stress and have relatively high maintenance
         | costs (a major factor in the closure of California's San Onofre
         | reactor).
         | 
         | Then you have to add in the cost of the uranium fuel rods,
         | which is a complex supply chain issue in many countries (the
         | recent coup in Niger has shut down 1/3 of France's uranium ore
         | supply chain for their reactors, say news reports). Uranium
         | supplies are limited and historically uranium prices get
         | volatile when it seems a reactor boom is coming (look at right
         | before Fukushima). Then you have the long-term costs of spent
         | fuel treatment and secure storage, and eventual reactor
         | decommissioning.
         | 
         | I really don't see anyway to reduce these costs such that
         | nuclear will be anywhere near cost-competitive with today's
         | solar/wind/storage complexes, that are entirely capable of
         | producing reliable 24/7 grid power at costs well below that of
         | a comparable nuclear power plant in most locations.
        
           | zamalek wrote:
           | We've effectively forgotten how to build (specifically
           | engineer) nuclear reactors. This is very similar to problems
           | faced by the space program somewhat recently. During the 3
           | decade pause people retired and memories faded, there were no
           | apprentices to carry the wisdom forward.
           | 
           | > How can costs be reduced?
           | 
           | Build more reactors, and re-learn how to build them. Note
           | that this doesn't touch on economies of scale, which will
           | likely never really apply to nuclear power. Nuclear is likely
           | to always have immense up-front costs, but it shouldn't cost
           | this much.
        
         | dyno12345 wrote:
         | The US Navy seems to be able to do it
        
           | kibwen wrote:
           | The navy uses nuclear reactors for tactical reasons, not
           | economic reasons. Nuclear-powered ships are significantly
           | more expensive.
        
       | arghandugh wrote:
       | What this article is missing is that if you don't consider
       | refueling, defouling, valve refitting, coolant issues, cooling
       | tower furloughs, transmission plant failures, early retirement,
       | funding issues, staffing issues, or pressure vessel refurbishment
       | the uptime is 100%! Beat that, renewables.
        
       | yellowapple wrote:
       | Good. More, please.
        
       | 10g1k wrote:
       | My 2c:
       | 
       | Why nuclear power is a dumb idea.
       | 
       | Countries with nuclear reactors: 32.
       | 
       | Countries which have had nuclear leaks or meltdowns: 15.
       | 
       | Number of nuclear leaks and meltdowns since 1952 (only those
       | which resulted in loss of human life or >US$50K property damage):
       | ~100.
       | 
       | About 60% of those have been in the USA, allegedly the most
       | advanced country in the world with the bestest regulation of such
       | things.
       | 
       | Note that the USA requirements for nuclear reactor waste (yes,
       | they produce toxic waste; they are not clean), last time I
       | checked, required the canisters to be able to survive for 300
       | years. The waste lasts longer than 300 years. So all you can do
       | with the waste, at best, is leave it for someone else to handle
       | later.
       | 
       | Two years ago the USA had a leak which spilled ~400,000 gallons
       | of radioactive water into a major river system, and it was
       | covered up for two years. You can not trust governments or
       | nuclear power companies about this stuff.
       | 
       | The entire ecosystem is getting poisoned by all that waste water
       | Japan is dumping. Almost 50% of countries with nuclear reactors
       | have had significant leaks and meltdowns, and it only takes one
       | significant event to screw up the entire natural environment.
       | 
       | Finally: If you are not willing to have a nuclear reactor right
       | beside your house, but are willing to have one beside someone
       | else's house, you are a coward and are not really in favour of
       | nuclear power.
        
       | gottorf wrote:
       | About time!
       | 
       | > "This hadn't been done in this country from start to finish in
       | some 30-plus years," Chris Womack, CEO of Atlanta-based Southern
       | Co. said Monday in a telephone interview.
       | 
       | IIRC, scientists are working on Gen 4 reactors, and there are a
       | number of Gen 3 reactors operating in commercial capacities
       | around the world; but the US is still stuck on Gen 2 due to
       | regulation.
        
         | gh02t wrote:
         | That's a major oversimplification. The reason the US is mostly
         | (entirely) running Gen 2 reactors is because we simply lost
         | interest in building new reactors for a _long_ time. There were
         | regulatory hurdles that caused this, but there were tons and
         | tons of other factors that were (IMO) more important.
         | Especially economic factors related to the cost and
         | mismanagement of large nuclear projects, public opinions
         | shifting over nuclear power, and alternatives like natural gas
         | being super cheap.
         | 
         | The NRC has been approving Gen 3 designs for a while now but
         | nobody wanted to follow through on building them.
        
           | tmn wrote:
           | Are costs and mismanagement directly related to regulations?
           | Genuine question. This is impression I get from nuclear
           | advocates like Mark Nelson and doomberg.
        
       | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
       | > seven years late and $17 billion over budget.
       | 
       | When does this become a national security issue? Zoinks!
        
       | llsf wrote:
       | That reactor could last until 2100.
       | 
       | https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/whats-lifespan-nuclear-re...
        
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