[HN Gopher] LK-99
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       LK-99
        
       Author : bilsbie
       Score  : 79 points
       Date   : 2023-07-27 17:38 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (en.wikipedia.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (en.wikipedia.org)
        
       | dwheeler wrote:
       | I'm currently skeptical, as these are extraordinary claims.
       | 
       | But it doesn't matter what my current guess is. This claim either
       | replicates or it doesn't. I _really_ hope it replicates. If it
       | does, then even if this material can 't be _directly_ used to
       | change industry, it 's quite likely to lead to materials that do.
       | So I'm crossing my fingers!
        
       | icodestuff wrote:
       | Huh. The second paper listed different vacuum pressures than the
       | first. 10^-3 torr instead of 10^--5.
        
       | mark_feelthree wrote:
       | While we're in this phase of Schrodinger's superconductor of
       | 'waiting on replication', one thing is clear...
       | 
       | Science is broken.
       | 
       | If they really saw this as being possible in 1999 why has it
       | taken so long to progress? Well, I guess it's because they had
       | day jobs... but think of what could have changed if it worked 24
       | years ago... think of the carbon we've spewed out in a quarter
       | century :(
       | 
       | We really need a multi-billion dollar x-prize for tech like
       | this... and make it open-source so it's not paywalled behind a
       | patent.
       | 
       | Someone get Bill Gates to write a cheque...
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | [dupe]
       | 
       | lots of previous discussion:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36864624
        
       | hcks wrote:
       | Wikipedia being cringe as usual. If they waited 72h for it to be
       | debunked they would have avoided loosing more credibility.
        
         | distortionfield wrote:
         | Did you even read it?
         | 
         | > As of 26 July 2023, the measured properties do not prove that
         | LK-99 is a superconductor
         | 
         | What more could you possibly want from them?
        
         | wmf wrote:
         | Even if this gets debunked it's already probably noteworthy
         | enough for an article.
        
       | ShadowBanThis01 wrote:
       | Is what? You forgot the rest of the title.
        
       | optimalsolver wrote:
       | Comment I saw in a previous thread:
       | 
       | Stone age
       | 
       | Bronze age
       | 
       | Iron age
       | 
       | LK-99 ((r)) age
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36869209
        
         | soligern wrote:
         | This is definitely premature. If it's real though, holy cow,
         | can't wait for my 200Ghz processor.
        
           | bick_nyers wrote:
           | Then I can finally stop prematurely optimizing my code!
        
             | er4hn wrote:
             | Up until every Chrome tab spawns a new Fuchsia OS.
        
           | Euphorbium wrote:
           | What tasks are cpu limited now? For me none.
        
             | ComputerGuru wrote:
             | Video encoding.
        
             | willis936 wrote:
             | The draw calls for the 856th frame of counter strike this
             | second won't queue themselves.
        
             | topper-123 wrote:
             | Lots and lots of CI is cpu limited, for one thing.
        
             | valine wrote:
             | Most of the algorithms we use in machine learning are
             | chosen specifically because they parallelize well. If we
             | could increase clock speeds arbitrarily high, a huge
             | selection of algorithms we passed on would suddenly become
             | viable.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | anonymoushn wrote:
             | do you not use web browsers or compilers?
        
               | cmrdporcupine wrote:
               | you'd be surprised how much of what you think is CPU
               | limited is actually constrainted by memory bus bandwidth,
               | locks, high cache evictions / bad cache use, or I/O.
               | 
               | something as seemingly innocuous as checking and
               | incrementing an atomic counter across a bunch of threads
               | can induce a 10x performance drop
               | 
               | it's totally batshit insane how much faster things run
               | when they're able to work with stuff in L1 cache where
               | they're not waiting on slower memory.
               | 
               | modern CPUs are insanely fast and crazy concurrent, but
               | the rest of the machine can't keep up.
        
               | anonymoushn wrote:
               | I think for tasks like parsing javascript the parser is
               | usually unable to saturate memory bandwidth. Whether
               | that's because it's parsing to an in-memory
               | representation that is a tangle of pointers all over the
               | heap or because it is full of unpredictable branches
               | seems unimportant as a user.
               | 
               | The story is similar for LLVM. The fact that a CPU-bound
               | task can be pessimized into stalling on cache and TLB
               | misses all the time doesn't mean that it isn't CPU-bound.
               | 
               | A commonly deployed compression format which is lauded as
               | revolutionary has a decoder that contains 0 SIMD
               | intrinsics and uses significantly-fewer-than-optimal
               | number of interleaved streams (according to papers
               | published many years before the format was
               | standardized!), which drives up the length of the
               | dependency chains, and if you try to decode many chunks
               | at the same time then you also get into trouble because
               | you can't fit many tables into cache. The decoder does
               | not saturate memory bandwidth and toy decoders of similar
               | codecs from papers published years before are predictably
               | faster.
               | 
               | The more ubiquitous compression formats are worse.
               | 
               | It's common to encounter hash tables that underperform
               | robin hood tables that support bulk operations by a
               | factor of 100, applications that use red-black trees with
               | individually allocated nodes as priority queues (as
               | opposed to ternary heaps or b-trees or whatever), and
               | sorts that underperform by a factor of 10 compared to
               | radix sort of multi-key quick sort because they are
               | written in terms of a comparator function that must run
               | in its entirety, so that the subset of the items whose
               | first-sorted-by field are the same cannot skip this
               | comparison. This comparison is commonly a comparison of
               | data behind a pointer rather than data present in the
               | struct.
        
               | cmrdporcupine wrote:
               | I still submit that if you cranked CPU speed 10x or 100x
               | higher than now that you'd just hit the wall so hard that
               | actual quality of life improvements would not be 10x or
               | 100x at all, unless you could simultaneously make bus
               | speeds and memory speeds jump with it (presumably magic
               | superconductor would do that, too, I dunno.)
               | 
               | Specialized workloads, for sure.
        
             | capableweb wrote:
             | Not just CPU speeds would be able to be increased though,
             | lots of others could be increased too.
        
             | optimalsolver wrote:
             | Program synthesis/symbolic regression.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | whoopdedo wrote:
           | My speakers will sound so much better with LK-99 Monster
           | Brand cables.
        
         | yellowcake0 wrote:
         | this doesn't even make sense
        
           | optimalsolver wrote:
           | What's confusing you?
        
             | hcks wrote:
             | It's cringe, dude.
        
               | optimalsolver wrote:
               | Dude, you're now in the LK-99 Age. Learn to live with it.
        
             | yellowcake0 wrote:
             | it's not confusing, it's just silly, the Iron Age ended
             | over 2000 years ago, so there were just no ages between the
             | birth of Christ and LK-99?
        
               | optimalsolver wrote:
               | None which are generally accepted by historians that
               | happen to be named after a single substance:
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-age_system
        
               | yellowcake0 wrote:
               | Those are only for prehistory.
               | 
               | In any case it's a pretty silly contrivance, how about
               | the oil age? or the silicon age? Both of those are likely
               | to remain more impactful than the LK-99 age, in the event
               | that it does turn out to be an ambient temp/pressure
               | superconductor.
        
               | optimalsolver wrote:
               | If replicated, those are gonna be footnotes to LK-99 and
               | its likely many derivatives and close cousins.
        
               | maxbond wrote:
               | [New person]
               | 
               | Alright, but if we're going to be relying on the
               | authority of historians, they don't recognize the LK-99
               | age anymore then they recognize the steel,
               | plastics/petroleum products, or silicon age though.
               | 
               | I can't speak for anyone else but what struck me as off
               | about it was that it felt like boosterism for a
               | technology that's so new and poorly understood it that we
               | may find out it doesn't actually work at any moment. Even
               | if it does work, we have no idea if it's useful in real
               | applications or if it needs another decade of refinement.
               | It reminded me of AI and cryptoasset evangelism, and made
               | me inwardly groan, "here we go again...."
               | 
               | You don't have to write comments according to my
               | preferences, I didn't downvote your comment fwiw, that's
               | just how I saw it.
        
       | BryanLegend wrote:
       | They sat on it for 4 years?
        
         | mark_feelthree wrote:
         | Seems like they sat on it for 24 years!!
         | 
         | The 99 refers to 1999.
        
       | carabiner wrote:
       | Alex Kaplan (Princeton physics bachelor's, CEO of Cometeer which
       | is like Juicero of coffee) thinks it's over:
       | https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684642852616192000?r...
       | 
       | Edit: He's been breathlessly tweeting his hopes for the compound,
       | and has now done complete 180. This is just meant to be a data
       | point showing that one hypester has lost faith. His physics
       | academic background (which is non-expert but still better than
       | the average joe) shows that he's got a tiny bit of credibility,
       | but his being of a failing coffee startup shows that he's
       | probably got other motives.
        
         | soligern wrote:
         | What's the context for this? What does over mean and who did he
         | sit down with?
        
           | laluser wrote:
           | It's FUD. If you are being so vague without any critical
           | argument, then there's nothing of substance here.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | As a Harvard physics bachelor, I don't think an undergrad
         | physics degree gives much expert claim at all.
        
           | carabiner wrote:
           | Yeah, I think he knew his initial breathless positive
           | tweeting would go viral and he was really trying to attract
           | new investment for his struggling startup. Which he did.
        
         | saberdancer wrote:
         | The guy loves to jump on and off the hype train.
         | 
         | I guess he just now read the paper properly and found some
         | inconsistencies.
         | 
         | I'd wait for people to try and replicate. It is obvious that
         | the paper was not ready and has mistakes.
        
           | distortionfield wrote:
           | Yeah, we should give the author the proper chance to
           | replicate and full peer review before making a final call. I
           | sympathize withe the frustration of work being seen
           | prematurely, it's hard to undo the initial bias.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | anonymoushn wrote:
         | "Juicero of coffee" is like an anti-endorsement
        
           | carabiner wrote:
           | Yes that was kind of the point lol
        
         | hcks wrote:
         | "Physics bachelor" "CEO of Juicero for coffee"
         | 
         | Also this guy was the one shilling the paper in the first place
         | and he's now in damage control mode as he knows that it's BS
         | and doesn't want to loose more credibility in the fallback.
        
       | zh3 wrote:
       | What would you do if you genuinely believe you'd discovered
       | something as potentially important?
       | 
       | 1) Get paranoid, figure out where you've gone wrong
       | 
       | 2) Kicked it as hard as we can, can't find a problem. So...
       | 
       | 3a) Keep this potentially important result under our hats for as
       | long as it takes
       | 
       | 3b) publish it with with some risk of embarassmment, and -
       | hopefully - get others to either verify the result or point out
       | where we went wrong.
       | 
       | I'd always go for b) - after strenuous effort to falsify my own
       | theory.
       | 
       | Of course, some people - scientists are not an exception, just
       | less susceptibl to it - can't bear to abandon a lovely result.
        
         | wmf wrote:
         | In theory you should privately invite someone to replicate your
         | work, then publish it if the replication works. You'd probably
         | get scooped though, so you have no choice but to arxiv it
         | immediately.
        
           | kadoban wrote:
           | > In theory you should privately invite someone to replicate
           | your work, then publish it if the replication works. You'd
           | probably get scooped though, so you have no choice but to
           | arxiv it immediately.
           | 
           | What are we optimising for here? I'm not even convinced that
           | that's better. What's the harm in the way they went instead,
           | assuming they're not frauding.
        
             | wmf wrote:
             | Embarrassment, although there may also be some career
             | blowback.
        
               | kadoban wrote:
               | Ah, I see. I mean, the authors don't terribly seem to be
               | worried about that. I thought we were talking about
               | better for society or something.
        
         | nwienert wrote:
         | 4) Go to your government to get the biggest cash out
         | immediately, for the lowest risk (they may be unhappy if you
         | didn't disclose it to them first), also putting your nation
         | potentially massively ahead of others.
         | 
         | They supposedly started playing with this in 1999. If they
         | discovered this stuff nearly two decades ago and SK was let in
         | on it, maybe they have a whole array of military projects built
         | around it already?
        
         | TheAceOfHearts wrote:
         | If I encounter something world-changing I'd consider it an
         | ethical obligation to share it with the world. Show your work,
         | be transparent about what you know and what you've found, and
         | try to help others in replicating. Maintain humility.
         | 
         | Something I dislike about modern research is that there's not a
         | lot of transparency or rapid updates. It wouldn't take someone
         | much time to record a few additional videos and try to address
         | concerns regarding the magnetic properties. If you really think
         | the findings are important you should try to have public
         | communications with other scientists where you share as much
         | information as possible.
         | 
         | Too many people get caught up with playing politics and lose
         | sight of the real goal, which is pushing humanity forward.
        
       | guender wrote:
       | [dead]
        
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       (page generated 2023-07-27 23:01 UTC)