[HN Gopher] Superconductor news: What's claimed, and how strong ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Superconductor news: What's claimed, and how strong the evidence
       seems to be
        
       Author : etiam
       Score  : 1152 points
       Date   : 2023-07-26 17:46 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.science.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.science.org)
        
       | carabiner wrote:
       | Researcher on reddit thinks it's probably spurious measurement
       | artifacts, not superconductivity:
       | 
       | > I would say they are not faking it, but instead they just don't
       | understand what they are looking at. Based on what measurements
       | they are doing, as well as how they are doing them, they do not
       | have a good understanding of the standard processes to
       | characterise a superconductor. Also, based on their
       | analysis/discussion, they do not have scientific knowledge of the
       | background theory. In review of these two papers, it's terrible
       | science, not something malicious (as has been seen before in RT
       | superconductivity work...). Even if these claims turn out to be
       | true, it's still terrible science, and that's my main criticism.
       | Either way, these types of claims are not uncommon, see for
       | example this paper from a few years ago which went nowhere.
       | https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1807.08572
       | 
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/159g2k4/comment/...
        
         | macromaniac wrote:
         | He doesn't provide an actual counterargument,he just says he
         | doesn't like the data without explaining why.
         | 
         | His earlier comment that graphite can do the same thing is
         | untrue afaict. Graphite can repel the magnetic field but it
         | would slide off, this is why in diamagnetic experiments
         | multiple magnets are used to keep it in place. In the video it
         | doesnt seem to be sliding anywhere, so imo the video is not
         | showing diamagnetism.
         | 
         | https://sciencecast.org/casts/suc384jly50n
         | 
         | Edit: Actually, now I'm not so sure, it does seem like it's
         | held in place by one corner which is always pointing towards
         | the outside of the magnet, so maybe it is just diamagnetism. If
         | anyone has some pyrolytic carbon and wants to try it out?
         | 
         | Edit2: 99% of YouTube videos on diamagnetism have multiple
         | magnets, the only one I could find that has diamagnetism on one
         | pole magnets shows it not working:
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/D-tW8_SRW3g
         | 
         | I think it's more than just pyrolytic carbon
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | Intuition shouldn't be considered harmful.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | It is clearly resting on the magnet. I don't know the
           | mechanics off the top of my head, but that is enough
           | mechanical constraint for a pair of permanent magnets to
           | levitate.
        
             | willis936 wrote:
             | It isn't. Permanent magnets would be unstable. This would
             | have to be a diamagnetic or superconducting material.
        
               | IshKebab wrote:
               | It is, depending on how big the contact patch is. But
               | does look pretty small in this video and it doesn't
               | really behave like a permanent magnet would.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | sockaddr wrote:
               | I'm not convinced it's levitating in the video, imagine a
               | magnetic field strong enough to partially lift the fleck
               | but also a patch of the fleck contacting the magnet with
               | enough friction to keep it from sliding away.
        
               | jeepers6 wrote:
               | Superdiamagnetism occurs primarily in superconductors.
               | 
               | Reminder that flux-pinned levitation only occurs when
               | superconductors are cooled from above to below their
               | critical temperature while in a local magnetic field.
               | 
               | The researchers probably didn't heat up their big sample
               | above the critical temperature in air as that could have
               | mechanically destroyed it. It was already chipped almost
               | in two.
        
               | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
               | > Reminder that flux-pinned levitation only occurs when
               | superconductors are cooled from above to below their
               | critical temperature while in a local magnetic field.
               | 
               | Casual demonstrations of levitating superconductors
               | involve first submerging the superconducting material in
               | a (non-magnetized) tub of LN2, and then moving it onto a
               | magnetic track. For example,
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5EoUD-BIss
        
               | jeepers6 wrote:
               | That's true, surprising to hear that the YBCO SC in that
               | video is only 30um think.
        
           | weberer wrote:
           | >He doesn't provide an actual counterargument,he just says he
           | doesn't like the data without explaining why.
           | 
           | Welcome to Reddit
        
           | FlawedReformer wrote:
           | One of the authors explains in this article:
           | https://www.newscientist.com/article/2384782-room-
           | temperatur...
           | 
           | > However, only one edge of the flat, coin-like material
           | fully levitates, while the other seems to stay in contact
           | with the magnet. Kim says this is due to the sample being
           | imperfect, which means that only some part of it becomes
           | superconductive and exhibits the Meissner effect.
        
           | floxy wrote:
           | >so maybe it is just diamagnetism.
           | 
           | Superconducting levitation is just due to the perfect
           | diamagnetism of the superconductor, right?
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdiamagnetism
        
         | hatsunearu wrote:
         | https://www.kci.go.kr/kciportal/ci/sereArticleSearch/ciSereA...
         | 
         | This one's in Korean but there are some plots here that I think
         | several people said were missing.
        
         | hackernewds wrote:
         | The redditors response seem to be generic, where is the counter
         | evidence, and proof of their authority?
        
           | throwaw1yyy wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
             | hatchling wrote:
             | Agreed on reddit being terrible. What is "strong alpha"
             | though?
        
               | bhouston wrote:
               | It is from finance:
               | https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alpha.asp
        
               | pnut wrote:
               | Possibly they mean people with reliably high signal to
               | noise ratio, analogous to the investment term
               | https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alpha.asp ?
        
         | hatsunearu wrote:
         | I'm not a materials scientist but an electronics guy.
         | 
         | > 1b) shows the resistivity at some unknown temperature. They
         | are applying current and measuring no potential drop. Just
         | what? First, state the temperature, next measure it as a
         | function of temperature. At the critical temperature the
         | resistance drops to zero. All they have shown is that the
         | contact inputting the current is probably disconnected...
         | 
         | this does not pass the sniff test for me. I explained on reddit
         | myself why I think it doesn't make sense.
         | 
         | The only way that could work is if they just straight up
         | fabricated everything, and in that case all bets are off.
         | 
         | I can't comment about the others since I don't know enough
         | about it. Considering 1b) makes no sense with a modicum of
         | knowledge, I really doubt the veracity of the rest.
        
           | stu255 wrote:
           | You realise two of the authors (Lee and Kim) discovered this
           | in 1999 (hence LK-99), and only published this paper after a
           | huge fall out within the research team?
           | 
           | This isn't 1 experiment. This is 20 years of research leaking
           | because of a fight over credit.
        
         | foven wrote:
         | Agreed, this looks bogus. Some suspicious points:
         | 
         | In the first paper, they claim to measure zero resistance (on a
         | scale of microvolts), but are very careful not to show full RvT
         | curves - in the second paper, we can still see significant
         | changes below Tc where they include more complete curves. How
         | can the resistance change significantly in the superconducting
         | (zero resistance) state? We can actually see significant noise
         | in paper 1 fig. 1c in the ohmic state and it even appears to
         | behave as an insulator at 0 field (increasing resistance with
         | decreasing temperature), but a metal with applied field.
         | There's something wrong with the measurement.
         | 
         | 400 K is an odd choice for your superconducting temperature,
         | and just so happens to be the top end of what an MPMS system
         | can measure so is not completely random. Surely it makes sense
         | to measure significantly above this with one of the oven
         | attachments, verify these results with collaborators at other
         | labs even.
         | 
         | 10 Gauss is an extremely small field to use for a ZFC-FC
         | measurement and again if their superconducting Tc is at or
         | above 400K they need higher temperature data to show anything
         | about the phase transition.
         | 
         | The claim that they have measured the density of states is
         | completely unjustified - not even a citation. I don't know how
         | you can believe that to be the case.
         | 
         | And in general the presentation both of the data and the paper
         | itself is poor - if you just made a groundbreaking discovery
         | like this, wouldn't you care?
        
           | zarzavat wrote:
           | > if you just made a groundbreaking discovery like this,
           | wouldn't you care?
           | 
           | Hell no! If I had made a discovery of similar magnitude I
           | would have done exactly what they've done: push out a rough
           | preprint ASAP to reserve my Nobel prize, then take a deep
           | breath, relax and take my time dotting 'i's and crossing 't's
           | for the real paper in Nature.
           | 
           | That doesn't mean they're correct, but there's nothing
           | inherently suspicious about the way this has unfolded.
        
             | stu255 wrote:
             | Exactly, they have made a very big claim and made it very
             | easy to replicate / falsify. It takes a few days to produce
             | this stuff.
             | 
             | Their paper is weak on data / results.
             | 
             | This is exactly what you would do if your team genuinely
             | believed you had discovered something monumental.
             | 
             | In poker terms they are "all in" and they want to get
             | called.
             | 
             | That's why it is so interesting. If they had posted lots of
             | extreme results but it needed $10m to replicate then I
             | would be thinking "fraud". It would look like a bluff.
        
               | meroes wrote:
               | The motivations for fakery are too high.
        
               | foven wrote:
               | As I mentioned in my above post, they have really dodgy
               | data. Ideally, with something like this, you would have
               | collaborators to verify alongside you as joint co-
               | authors. I think something people underestimate if how
               | easy to replicate samples are - crystal growth is
               | difficult, and impurities are important. It is unlikely
               | anyone will produce exactly the same sample only
               | something close based on the process they've given.
               | 
               | In realistic terms it seems they're grabbing for the
               | prestige without the foundation of crossing their ts. Bad
               | science like this shouldn't be encouraged. It's likely
               | there's not very many groups growing the same material
               | system so they have the time to spare. A paper like this
               | wouldn't be on the arxiv at all if they were 100% sure
               | because they would go straight for the nature publication
               | and take the time to do more follow-up papers while they
               | can.
               | 
               | Edit: to be clear as well, a lot of people are
               | underestimating the time it takes to reproduce a growth
               | even with a manuscript telling you how to do it. People
               | always leave out steps and oversimplify. There is a lot
               | of extra characterization that takes time to double check
               | you have the right material that lines up with what they
               | have here. Only the direct competitors actually already
               | growing this material can do it in a few days.
        
               | peteradio wrote:
               | I think the politicking of the situation could explain
               | why there was minimal involvement of outside
               | collaborators.
        
           | nazgulnarsil wrote:
           | excellent point that the noise should raise probability of
           | measurement/set-up/equipment issues
        
         | LargeTomato wrote:
         | >I would say they are not faking it, but instead they just
         | don't understand what they are looking at
         | 
         | What? How do they get funding and lab space if they can't read
         | their own measurements? Something is fishy here.
        
           | sanxiyn wrote:
           | They in fact could not get funding and the research is funded
           | by investment money. They explicitly thank their investors at
           | the end.
        
             | tomjakubowski wrote:
             | What do you mean? Is it one of the other papers? I see
             | this:
             | 
             |  _Funding: This research was mainly supported by Quantum
             | Energy Research Centre, Inc. and was also partially
             | supported by Basic Science Research Program through the
             | National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the
             | Ministry of Education(2019R111A1A01059675) and Young-Wan
             | Kwon is supported by a Korea University Grant._
             | 
             | I don't know, either: what's the difference between
             | receiving funding for research and taking investment money
             | for it? Are you talking about public vs private funding?
        
             | TheBigSalad wrote:
             | What is finding?
        
           | mikeyouse wrote:
           | From what I understand, this group wasn't actually funded to
           | look for superconductors but instead for materials to aid in
           | quantum nanoscience - so the claim isn't that they don't know
           | how to read their instruments but rather that they aren't
           | well-versed enough in superconductor research to
           | appropriately design/test for the phenomenon.
        
         | aqme28 wrote:
         | I'm curious how those page 3 I/V figures are just spurious
         | measurement artifacts. They seem very clearly to be evidence of
         | high temp superconductivity
        
         | _0ffh wrote:
         | >> they do not have scientific knowledge of the background
         | theory
         | 
         | One of the co-authors of the 6-author-paper, Hyun-Tak Kim, is
         | at least answering questions about superconductor theory on
         | Quora starting five years ago, whatever that counts for.
         | 
         | He states there "I am studying the MIT mechanism in strongly
         | correlated systems, the high-Tc mechanism in cuprate
         | superconductors, the MIT devices, and quantum transistors.".
         | 
         | https://www.quora.com/profile/Hyun-Tak-Kim?share=1
        
         | fluidcruft wrote:
         | Another interesting comment by that redditor
         | https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/159jojs/comment...
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | WaffleIronMaker wrote:
         | Another interesting analysis from that post:
         | 
         | > So, to clarify for my nonexpert brain, if this were a
         | superconductor and their measurements were accurate:
         | 
         | > Fig 5 means the sample must be completely pure to be a
         | superconductor
         | 
         | > The rest of the paper indicates the sample must have
         | impurities.
         | 
         | > So it's pretty safe to say that either it's not a
         | superconductor or their measurements are wrong (or most likely
         | both). Since they never got it to the critical temperature and
         | showed the full Meissner effect, if the measurements are wrong
         | it's fair to say they don't have evidence for superconductivity
         | anyway, just diamagnetism, which isn't really that big a deal
         | 
         | https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/159g2k4/comment/...
        
           | btilly wrote:
           | The paper that I'm seeing only has 4 figures.
           | 
           | In any case, the need for impurities would not itself
           | surprise. Having controlled amounts of impurities is called
           | "doping", it is well-known from studying semiconductors and
           | other high temperature superconductors that the amount of
           | doping can have a huge impact on a substance's properties.
           | 
           | See https://physicsworld.com/a/the-ups-and-downs-of-doping/
           | for verification of this point.
        
             | tux3 wrote:
             | This is the second, slightly cleaner paper with more
             | figures:
             | https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12037.pdf
        
         | tigershark wrote:
         | As far as I understand there is no real explanation for the
         | measurements and the video demonstrating the Meissner effect
         | apart from faking it. The Reddit thread that you posted alleges
         | that they were faking the video by super-cooling a non-room
         | temperature superconductor for example. Do you have proof that
         | they actually are so crazy to fake a certain Nobel prize when
         | their research can be verified in a short time? From my side I
         | will wait a week or two for the reproduction from other labs.
         | You can continue spreading your reddit-based opinions until
         | then.
        
           | TillE wrote:
           | All the amateur debunking just smells like the usual
           | confidently incorrect contrarianism, which is always popular
           | on sites like Reddit.
           | 
           | There's just way too much going on for this to be a sloppy
           | mistake. It's either real or a fraud, and in both cases the
           | alleged errors aren't particularly important.
        
             | Freedom2 wrote:
             | > sites like Reddit.
             | 
             | I'm glad this site doesn't partake in incorrect
             | contrarianism.
        
       | honkycat wrote:
       | I've been saying for years we are one "future technology" away
       | from savings our asses from our world collapsing.
       | 
       | Here is hoping this is that breakthrough.
        
         | Evidlo wrote:
         | Maybe post-scarcity countries will have more time to focus on
         | fighting for land and less need for maintaining good relations
         | with others.
        
           | keenmaster wrote:
           | With tons of cheap energy, you can make better use of the
           | land you have. The entirety of humanity can technically fit
           | in Southern California. I'm imagining a swarm of construction
           | robots running on dirt cheap power, excavating land and
           | building beautiful AI-designed mid-rise apartments in all
           | directions. Scarcity, what's that? And once we have bonkers
           | amounts of power, like from fusion, we can trivially extend
           | cities out into the sea by adding to the landmass (though
           | this won't account for a majority of the scarcity reducing
           | effect).
        
       | MrPatan wrote:
       | The moment they push the sample and it "turns and snaps" into the
       | magnet in this video:
       | 
       | https://sciencecast.org/casts/suc384jly50n
       | 
       | makes it look like a diamagnetically levitating piece of graphite
       | moving over multiple magnets in this video:
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-tW8_SRW3g
       | 
       | Why am I wrong? I want to believe!
        
         | Tade0 wrote:
         | My suspicion as well. If in the original video the researcher
         | is holding a Neodymium magnet, then at this size it already has
         | lethal magnetic power - or at least enough to make one lose
         | fingers with improper handling.
        
       | Vox_Leone wrote:
       | A passing thought: with [post pandemic] AI and superconductivity
       | breakthroughs [case verified], 2023 turned out to be a hell of a
       | year. Will be remembered.
        
       | The_Double wrote:
       | The strangest thing to me is that apparently this material has
       | been developed years ago, the video of a piece floating was
       | uploaded 3 months ago, and apparently it's easy to produce more
       | samples, but the papers still reads like they have been thrown
       | together in less than a week. (English might not be their first
       | language, but the presentation of the figures is also poor) And
       | it also seems like they haven't spent that time by doing high
       | quality experiments. Surely if you have found a magic material
       | that can change the world you would spend more effort than this
       | on doing experiments and publishing a good paper as soon as
       | possible.
       | 
       | The low quality video and poorly presented graphs are reminiscent
       | of Victor Ninov's fraud.
        
         | jahnu wrote:
         | I read somewhere once that deliberately poor quality graphs are
         | sometimes used so that readers cannot extract the precise
         | values from them. This could be to obscure fake or real data.
        
           | tomtom1337 wrote:
           | This is true, but from personal experience, academics are
           | terrible at including high quality images. My colleague would
           | screenshot an image from some visualisation software and
           | paste it in to her paper in MS Word. Then that image would
           | get copied or screenshotted into a different word document,
           | and so on, and the quality would deteriorate.
        
             | earthboundkid wrote:
             | My wife is an academic and I often see her screenshoting to
             | move an image from one document to another. Seems like a UI
             | failure that the system can't detect this use case and move
             | high quality backing images through the clipboard.
        
               | jimkoen wrote:
               | MacOS went full circle here at least with regards to
               | text: In the new MacOS versions, if you screenshot text
               | there's automatic OCR, so when you receive a screenshot
               | of some text, you can copy it again!
               | 
               | It's non-trivial to implement that for something like
               | SVG's, but if UI developers had anticipated this use
               | case, we might have gotten a remedy with the introduction
               | of raster graphics.
        
         | hackeraccount wrote:
         | It seems weird because it's a big leap but big leaps do happen.
         | 
         | If it is a misrepresentation I'd be curious about the back
         | story. I mean, even if it's not been knowingly done it will
         | presumably seriously hurt the careers of the people involved;
         | if it is knowingly I assume it will be "find a job in another
         | field" kind of thing.
         | 
         | How could you suspect it wouldn't come out if it's knowingly?
         | If un-knowingly how could you make an amazing claim like this
         | without being absolutely sure of what's going on? If it's a
         | "rush to publish" type thing - why wouldn't you make a big
         | point of that in the paper (i.e. load it with caveats to the
         | brim)? Plus this comment makes it sounds like it's been sat on
         | for at least what seems to me like a fair amount of time.
         | 
         | All the options seem implausible but at the end of the day one
         | of them must be the case. For the sake of everyone I'm pulling
         | that it is what it says on the tin.
        
       | archepyx wrote:
       | Another comment from a well informed source on the topic:
       | https://nitter.net/condensed_the/status/1684255515944034304
       | 
       | Also, on the sentences in the manuscripts trying to explain the
       | effect: I think that is wild guess at best. The measurement
       | results done in the manuscripts probably can be taken at at face
       | value (at least until there is a reproduction). Whether they
       | really indicate superconductivity or something else that looks
       | like it in some of the aspects is then a different question.
        
         | thepasswordis wrote:
         | It's probably better to link to the original, not this mirror:
         | https://twitter.com/condensed_the/status/1684255515944034304
        
           | MikeBVaughn wrote:
           | The replies don't load for me in this one.
        
           | cmrdporcupine wrote:
           | Twitter is not a publicly available resource, not part of the
           | open web: Its URLs are semi-private and require an account to
           | fully read and they should not be posted here on HN.
           | 
           | For almost two weeks they were fully locked, and now one can
           | only see the original post and not the thread, and all
           | browsing is locked out.
        
           | diabolo96 wrote:
           | Nitter is an alternative front-end that allow you to view the
           | tweet and the response while Twitter only only to view the
           | attached tweet only. So in fact , it's better that he used
           | nitter rather than the "original"
        
       | floxy wrote:
       | Lots of people are saying there should be a quick turnaround time
       | here for trying the replication. I wonder how much it would cost
       | to try and replicate this, in materials, labor costs, and vacuum
       | furnace time/costs. My naive thought is that that labs in general
       | aren't just going to drop everything to try an replicate every
       | instance of someone declaring they've discovered room temperature
       | superconductivity. Seems more like a "there's a lull in paying
       | work, so hey, why don't some of you junior technicians try this
       | out" thing? Anyone have insight into this? I suppose a university
       | lab might have more leeway here to try out spur of the moment
       | experiments? Maybe this is a "I'm personally interested in this
       | and I'll work in the evenings to test it out, instead of on
       | company/university time"? Or are the authors high profile enough
       | in the community that it meets a certain threshold of credibility
       | that it seems more worthwhile than the average?
        
         | overnight5349 wrote:
         | The synthesis outlined in the paper takes about 90 hours, but
         | basically all of it is just waiting for the material to bake in
         | a furnace.
         | 
         | I'd expect some lab out there to report a result by the end of
         | the week. The synthesis really is super simple, just grinding
         | powders together and baking in a furnace. Granted, the final
         | product has to be baked under vacuum, but that's not super
         | difficult to achieve. The authors sealed the material in a
         | quartz tube and baked in a standard furnace.
        
         | nharada wrote:
         | Under a week of work to publish potentially the highest impact
         | paper of your PhD (especially if you're first)? I'm guessing
         | most students would take that chance.
        
         | soligern wrote:
         | I'm sure this is on Applied Science's (a YouTube channel)
         | radar. He recently went on a deep dive on making YBCO
         | superconductors so it's right up his alley.
        
           | pzber wrote:
           | Would love to see Ben Krasnow from Applied Science try to
           | replicate this!
        
           | jeepers6 wrote:
           | https://nitter.net/BenKrasnow/status/1684431462643437569#m
        
             | 7373737373 wrote:
             | A livestream of this would be awesome
        
         | BurningFrog wrote:
         | Just testing the samples already made in an independent
         | laboratory would be replication enough!
        
         | refulgentis wrote:
         | Not much, see article (~1 day), or article + thread from
         | yesterday. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36864624
         | 
         | I don't think, at least generally, work is as rigid as
         | indicated. At least at white collar jobs, and especially a
         | research lab, and most especially a university research lab.
        
           | floxy wrote:
           | $10, $100, $1,000? 1 hour, 10 hours of labor?
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | If you have the equipment, some $100s on consumables, some
             | 10 hours of labor, and some 60 hours of waiting.
        
         | abibibo wrote:
         | From what I recall of the original paper, 1-2 hours of actual
         | labor with equipment and reagents many labs already have on
         | hand--although it required 24-48hours in the furnace at each
         | step which is the only reason for the delay and why the article
         | author mentions we should see results tomorrow. So, trivial
         | enough most people in similar labs already spent more time
         | discussing the implications than actual labor/investment to
         | replicate.
        
           | yreg wrote:
           | If it really is as easy as you say then surely every YouTuber
           | with a metal furnace dropped everything to make that 100M
           | view video.
        
             | willis936 wrote:
             | I'm hoping they are. I want to watch them this weekend.
        
               | yreg wrote:
               | Finally found someone who's liveblogging it:
               | https://nitter.net/andrewmccalip
        
         | nneonneo wrote:
         | Fleischmann and Pons' famous cold fusion result was announced
         | on March 23 1989 and a spate of replication attempts followed
         | in the ensuing weeks; by April 30 1989, the NYT ran an article
         | calling cold fusion dead due to the large number of reported
         | negative reproduction attempts.
         | 
         | Scientists can move far quicker than you expect, and a positive
         | or negative replication of this superconductor claim should be
         | a very easy publication to grab. It would definitely be worth
         | alloting a few weeks of grad student time to replicating this
         | ASAP to get that publication.
        
           | m463 wrote:
           | The fact that there are other (competing?) scientists doing
           | superconductor research suggests there will be organized
           | attempts to verify it.
           | 
           | That said, I remember reading about shockley having ideas
           | about the transistor that he only fessed up to as his other
           | more open collaborators started understanding the phenomenon.
        
         | scarmig wrote:
         | It's a reasonable enough paper, and replicating should be
         | pretty easy (an undergrad could do it). Because the
         | implications are so massive if true, people are going to jump
         | on it.
         | 
         | From the linked article:
         | 
         | > You can bet that furnaces in solid-state materials labs
         | around the world have been cooking yesterday and today to try
         | to reproduce its synthesis and the properties, and we should be
         | hearing about the results of these experiments very soon. The
         | first samples should be coming out of the quartz vessels. .
         | .sometime tomorrow, perhaps? Depends on what was available
         | around the lab!
        
           | floxy wrote:
           | Yes, that quote from the article makes it seem like everyone
           | is dropping everything and jumping right on it. I'm wondering
           | how likely that is we'll find out this Friday vs. in the next
           | couple of months, as people get around to it.
        
             | kadoban wrote:
             | It's an easy thing to attempt to replicate, and it's
             | probably _the_ single biggest goal in a particular field of
             | science in at least decades.
             | 
             | It's impossible that at least some people didn't drop
             | everything to try it.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | That depends on how easy it is to replicate, and if it is
             | true. If it is easy (the 24 hour in the furnace is really
             | long enough for everything to get to temperature - 10
             | minutes is enough in ideal cases) then we will get lots of
             | success Tomorrow. If it is hard, well we will get a lot of
             | failures, but a few will try again an in a month as they
             | refine technique will report a success.
             | 
             | If it is false we may never get a final report, just
             | everyone gives up on reproducing it. (though with the hype
             | we may see it like cold fusion were a few not very good
             | researchers keep it alive via badly done experiments).
             | 
             | Only time will tell.
        
             | scarmig wrote:
             | Friday is more plausible than a couple months. If the radio
             | silence ends up extending well-into next week, people are
             | having trouble replicating and want to cross their ts
             | before calling it out as fraud.
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | I think if it isn't replicated by tomorrow, it's dead.
        
         | bawolff wrote:
         | If i make an analogy to p=np.
         | 
         | If someone claimed to have a complex proof, i dont think people
         | would stop and drop everything.
         | 
         | If someone claimed to have a constructive solution to p=np,
         | claimed to have implemented it, and put the code on github -
         | yeah i think lots of people would drop everything to run it and
         | see if it works.
         | 
         | Im not a physicist, but maybe with the relative ease on making
         | this material (according to other comments) it is more like the
         | second situation.
        
           | hatsunearu wrote:
           | For real; the original paper is kinda shitty in terms of data
           | presentation, and there's _significant_ value to make a
           | follow up paper to create data and try to get your name out
           | there.
        
             | distortionfield wrote:
             | The author of the paper apparently says it wasn't supposed
             | to be leaked and that it needs more work, but he stands by
             | his results and will assist anyone trying to replicate,
             | which sounds pretty steadfast to me.
        
               | techdragon wrote:
               | They have patents... this is the sensible approach to
               | take with your intellectual property well defended.
               | Between the patents and the published paper establishing
               | his role and thus Nobel eligibility...
               | 
               | At this point assisting anybody who wants to help prove
               | him correct (and I know that I'm making the assumption
               | that he genuinely believes he has made what he claims in
               | the paper with the mechanisms and methodology as
               | outlined) will just help secure get rich faster and make
               | his Nobel prize even more secure.
               | 
               | Polycrystaline materials are kinda finicky so more
               | samples helps eliminate the error bars. So obviously why
               | didn't they do heaps of samples and have a longer paper?
               | ... Money! They got funding for quantum physics based
               | sensor/detector research and this appears to have been a
               | happy accident, so naturally they kept their heads down,
               | got their patents (they have multiple patents each of
               | which costs money) and did a little bit more work to be
               | absolutely sure, then as soon as it was smart, they
               | published their results and are now going to let the
               | entire world excitedly double check their results...
               | because the results if true, are fucking awesome...
               | 
               | Of course the world wants to replicate this, no one wants
               | to be waiting for someone else to confirm a breakthrough
               | this big... I bet there's even some corporate labs doing
               | a little work on replication too, so some smart managers
               | in various industries can factor room temperature
               | superconducting materials into their designs and future
               | plans sooner, because otherwise their competitors might
               | be! (Obviously there's not going to be a lot of this
               | since most companies don't have internal science groups
               | but the Lockheed-Martins of the world, the Daewoos, the
               | Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the Ratheons ... I'd be
               | surprised if they didn't already have someone somewhere
               | in the world who is still currently making batches and
               | putting them into furnaces because the material is cheap
               | and you can get a lot more certainty from additional
               | samples if your are prepared to pay for the work. I'd be
               | dammed sure someone at General Dynamics is making some
               | because it would massively help them convince the US Navy
               | to give them more funding to continue work on railguns!
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | It doesn't require the kind of equipment that you have to
         | justify to accountants and run at full capacity. And while the
         | reactants are things that I believe most labs won't have at
         | hand, they are the kind of thing anybody can buy on the web to
         | arrive this week.
         | 
         | Whether people will stop what they are doing to verify it is
         | literally a matter of people stopping what they are doing.
         | University labs are usually quick on that.
        
           | mataslauzadis wrote:
           | One of the elements used here is phosphorus (P) which is
           | regulated by the DEA in the United States, and can't just be
           | purchased online
        
             | ckemere wrote:
             | Probably ATF, not DEA. DEA regulates controlled substances.
             | ATF regulates explosives.
        
               | hackeraccount wrote:
               | Wonder element phosphorus can be used for both!
        
             | techdragon wrote:
             | Seriously... elemental phosphorus is controlled by the DEA?
             | The ATF I could maybe understand but the DEA... that's just
             | whacky.
        
             | toast0 wrote:
             | If you are at a materials science or physics lab, it can't
             | be difficult to get.
        
             | TillE wrote:
             | Hell, Sigma Aldrich will sell you LSD. Established labs
             | have no trouble with lightly restricted drug precursors,
             | they've done all the paperwork.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _One of the elements used here is phosphorus (P) which is
             | regulated by the DEA_
             | 
             | I would have figured ATF. What drug can you synthesize with
             | phosphorus? (EDIT: Apparently meth [1].)
             | 
             | [1] https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2000/09/25/00
             | -2455...
        
               | [deleted]
        
         | light_hue_1 wrote:
         | > My naive thought is that that labs in general aren't just
         | going to drop everything to try an replicate every instance of
         | someone declaring they've discovered room temperature
         | superconductivity. Seems more like a "there's a lull in paying
         | work, so hey, why don't some of you junior technicians try this
         | out" thing? Anyone have insight into this?
         | 
         | Labs all over the world are dropping everything to replicate
         | this. It's simple self interest.
         | 
         | It only takes 2-3 days and the people involved in the paper are
         | credible.
         | 
         | If it's real, your lab would be at the forefront of the biggest
         | revolution since the transistor. If it's real, there will be
         | hundreds of papers on the topic by next year. Your lab could be
         | the one to discover a variant that can carry more current, that
         | could have patent on the material of the future power grid. The
         | papers that provide the basics for how this works and the data
         | that everyone will be using will get 100k+ citations in a few
         | years. The PhD students that become experts in this will be in
         | high demand everywhere.
        
       | KingLancelot wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | fortysixdegrees wrote:
       | This is going to mess up RoHS
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restriction_of_Hazardous_Subst...
        
         | bawolff wrote:
         | There is already a bunch of exceptions for lead, if this is
         | useful with no alternatives they would probably just add more
         | exceptions.
        
         | cperciva wrote:
         | Not necessarily. The "strained crystal" approach probably
         | extends to other elements; mixing Pb and Cu works well since
         | there's a large difference in their sizes, but rare earths
         | might work just as well as Pb.
        
           | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
           | Can we get those in volumes necessary to do high voltage
           | lines though?
        
             | amluto wrote:
             | REBCO tape is just starting to be available in volume, and
             | I don't think availability is raw materials is even close
             | to being a limiting factor.
        
         | varjag wrote:
         | RoHS has a number of exceptions. Ambient temp/pressure
         | superconductivity will absolutely be excepted too.
        
           | seventytwo wrote:
           | Nope, sorry. The EU is probably just gonna pass on RT
           | superconductors. /s
        
             | xeonmc wrote:
             | See? Brexit was a good idea after all ;)
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | I mean, they are trying to take a pass on AI... I wouldn't
             | put it past us.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | ajuc wrote:
         | Lead-acid batteries are mostly lead and legal. I'm sure they
         | will make this legal too.
        
       | Exuma wrote:
       | So where do we stay up to date with whether it's valid or not.
        
         | mrandish wrote:
         | TFA notes that it should be quick to replicate and it's
         | definitely gotten enough attention. If the right lab has the
         | needed materials readily available, I expect we'll start seeing
         | credible people posting excited tweets implying initial
         | confirmation as soon as Friday afternoon/evening (assuming it
         | replicates on the first go). If we don't see anything by the
         | end of next week I'd guess that either it's not replicating or,
         | at minimum, it's more finicky than it first appears.
        
         | TigeriusKirk wrote:
         | This site will no doubt have the reports in either direction on
         | the front page.
        
         | p1mrx wrote:
         | https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor...
         | graphs the sentiment over time.
        
           | Ajedi32 wrote:
           | Slightly more pessimistic than I was expecting given the
           | amount of hype this has generated. Though I guess for
           | something this groundbreaking a 25% chance that it's real is
           | pretty newsworthy.
        
       | amai wrote:
       | "I am not enough of a solid-state physicist to judge this
       | proposal,..."
       | 
       | I stopped reading after this confession of the author. So this
       | text is just as good as a opinion of some other random guy.
        
         | danpalmer wrote:
         | I'm not a JavaScript developer, but I can tell if a JS dev is
         | bullshitting or if they know their stuff.
         | 
         | The author has enough relevant experience to be able to safely
         | conclude a similar thing. They are honest that they won't spot
         | minor issues, but my takeaway from this article is that the
         | original paper authors are not cowboys or bullshitters, and
         | they have a chance at a real finding, subject to regular
         | research bugs.
         | 
         | That's good enough to be worth an article!
        
         | gus_massa wrote:
         | The articles about chemistry of this author are very good. I
         | studied a specialty in Chemistry in secondary school (12-18),
         | so I can evaluate most of them but the details are usually
         | above my level. When posted here his post get good comments and
         | I upvote most (all) of his stories.
         | 
         | His conclusions here are similar to the hivemind opinion in the
         | first post https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36864624 My
         | takeaway is:
         | 
         | 1) It must be confirmed. (And if confirmed it's huge.)
         | 
         | 2) The method to make the material are very easy (if you have a
         | good lab)
         | 
         | For me, this post confirm that the chemistry part makes sense.
         | Perhaps there was something weird abut the composition of the
         | ceramic. Perhaps about the method to make it? If he says that
         | it looks fine, for me it's a nice confirmation that it makes
         | sense.
         | 
         | The explanation of the effect using "quantum wells" is more
         | strange. I feel it's suspicious and that it will be explained
         | in a different way in the future. Anyway, I'm neither an expert
         | in superconductivity, so I may be wrong. I don't know his
         | opinion about the "quantum wells" but I guess he also is not an
         | expert in that field to evaluate it.
         | 
         | Superconductivity is a field where the experimental results
         | usually arrive long before the theoretical ones, so _assuming
         | this is new material is true_ , it is possible that we get a
         | lot of new materials in the next 10 years and a good
         | theoretical explanation in 50 years.
        
       | algo_trader wrote:
       | > (as well as an obvious instant Nobel prize).
       | 
       | South Korea has been waiting for a (real, STEM) Nobel prize for
       | decades.
       | 
       | These guys will be worshipped as gods if they deliver
        
         | mrandish wrote:
         | South Korea: "We've developed reliable superconducting
         | electricity."
         | 
         | North Korea: "We're still working on reliable electricity."
        
         | worik wrote:
         | > (real, STEM) Nobel prize
         | 
         | Ouch.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | nemo44x wrote:
         | > These guys will be worshipped as gods if they deliver
         | 
         | And rightfully so. Humanity is moved by great people and these
         | would be great people. We would build monuments to them to
         | symbolize their importance.
        
         | optimalsolver wrote:
         | >(real, STEM) Nobel prize
         | 
         | Alfred Nobel would probably find this characterization very
         | ironic.
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | I'd bet the country would be transformed by this. SK
         | universities (SNU, KAIST) would rocket in reputation for solid
         | state physics research. Massive money inflows to the country
         | from production of the material. Deep down I think most of us
         | realize that this will probably turn out to be nothing.
        
           | dougmwne wrote:
           | It's nothing unless it turns out to be something.
           | 
           | I'll draw an analogy to the LLMs and diffusion models that
           | have lately rocked the computer world. These things are
           | straight up science fiction. I would have said computers
           | would have never been capable of art and poetry. It was all
           | fantasy until it was suddenly reality.
           | 
           | We'll probably know if this can be replicated relatively
           | soon. And if it can it will kick off a whole new branch of
           | materials science and begin a multi-year race to
           | commercialization.
           | 
           | We are facing gigantic challenges in energy and climate. We
           | need the win, so my fingers are crossed.
        
             | dinvlad wrote:
             | LLMs were/are massively overhyped though. Like it's not
             | even close to the sort of transformation they promised.
             | Neat tech yes, world-changing solution to all of our
             | problems? Very hardly, unless a very significant effort is
             | spent (and yet undiscovered tech invented) to eliminate all
             | of its significant practical problems.
             | 
             | Academics (and similarly venture startup founders) like to
             | sort of jump to conclusions along the lines of "discovery
             | was the hardest part - now this thing could enable ... in
             | the next X years" at the end of a paper. And then people
             | spend many decades to actually reduce this to practice. So
             | 90% of work belongs to applications, not technology in on
             | itself.
        
               | anonylizard wrote:
               | Its already overturned the entire art world.
               | 
               | 1.2 years ago if you claimed that an AI will just come
               | out and make artists mass panic you would be laughed at.
               | Now art is somehow just 'solved'. Progress is continuous
               | and massive from Midjourney v1 -> v5
        
               | dinvlad wrote:
               | Well, that's exactly what I'm talking about - new
               | unproven tech that created more problems that it solved.
               | It didn't "solve" art since that is meaningless without a
               | human artist. Instead, it stole popular concepts and is
               | regurgitating it without any originality or thought put
               | into it, and then used "instead" of real artistical works
               | by those who don't really understand art, but just need
               | "content".
               | 
               | In other words, merely copying/reproducing something is
               | emphatically not art.
               | 
               | The same thing happened with traditional (painting) art
               | and photography - the latter didn't really replace it but
               | just supplanted it in the areas where one wasn't really
               | looking for art but for mere reproduction of reality. And
               | then over time, photography itself has evolved into art,
               | since people have learned how to channel their inner self
               | through it, and aimed at quality instead of "quantity"
               | (and unlike the former, the latter by itself became
               | trivial). I don't see the same happening with generative
               | models quite yet (heck, they didn't really replace
               | photography either!)
        
             | chasd00 wrote:
             | Dude I'm right there with you, fingers crossed!
        
         | CBarkleyU wrote:
         | >"real nobel price" "maths"
         | 
         | psht, as if
        
       | nemo44x wrote:
       | Apparently the 2 main guys, Kim and Lee have been working on this
       | since 1999 and hence the name "LK-99". They worked on other
       | things in industry over the years with this on the back burner
       | and a few years ago received some funding to pursue this. Kwon
       | was brought in to babysit essentially.
       | 
       | At this point they were able to isolate the material but it took
       | a few years to figure out how to produce it reliable. They bring
       | in HyunTak who has Western ties and has a respectable reputation
       | being a well known physical chemist.
       | 
       | They file patents in 2022 and 2023 and some in the group are
       | nervous that because the process is so simple they'll get
       | scooped. Spies, etc.
       | 
       | HyunTak wants to do more work before publishing but Kwon just
       | goes ahead and published the paper with him, Lee, and Kim as the
       | authors. HyunTak gets word of this and publishes his paper with
       | him, Lee, and Kim and some others later that day.
       | 
       | I think because of this, it is real. Infighting over credits and
       | the fact that HyunTak is extremely respectable.
        
       | 9991 wrote:
       | Right
        
       | tux3 wrote:
       | New scientist got a reply from the authors and a few other
       | experts: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2384782-room-
       | temperatur...
       | 
       | >Kim has only co-authored one of the arXiv papers, while the
       | other is authored by his colleagues at the Quantum Energy
       | Research Centre in South Korea, some of whom also applied for a
       | patent on LK-99 in August 2022.
       | 
       | >Both papers present similar measurements, however Kim says that
       | the second paper contains "many defects" and was uploaded to
       | arXiv without his permission. In that paper, the work is
       | described as opening a "new era for humankind".
       | 
       | >Other experts that New Scientist consulted were similarly
       | sceptical about the results and the data produced. Some raised
       | concern that some of the results could be explained by errors in
       | experimental procedure combined with imperfections in the LK-99
       | sample.
        
         | antimatter15 wrote:
         | Seems interesting that there appears to have been a patent
         | application for LK-99 (https://patents.google.com/patent/KR2023
         | 0030188A/en?oq=WO202...) filed two years ago in August 2021 (a
         | year earlier than the article suggests).
         | 
         | If true, it seems wild to sit on this kind of discovery for
         | over two years.
         | 
         | Update: Seems like there might be even more history given the
         | name LK-99 apparently comes from the names of its discoverers
         | Dr. Lee and Dr. Kim, and the year of its discovery, 1999
         | (https://kr.linkedin.com/in/ji-hoon-kim-03508b80).
        
           | yreg wrote:
           | Naive question: is that the original content of the
           | application from 2021, or could it have been updated later?
           | Is it the same material as LK-99 in the published paper?
        
           | nazgulnarsil wrote:
           | quick googling appears to indicate that it was produced in
           | trace amounts as a consequence of other experiments at that
           | time and only was investigated in and of itself in larger
           | amounts more recently? Awaiting more info from better
           | informed people.
        
         | tigershark wrote:
         | "Both papers present similar measurements"
         | 
         | I'm not a physicist expert of superconductors, although I've
         | followed quite closely that field since the '90s. But if the
         | measurements are similar and correct and if the video of lk-99
         | levitating above a magnet demonstrating the Meissner effect is
         | not fake, I don't really have an alternative explanation to
         | account for all of that. I guess that we'll see what happens in
         | the next week or two. This is too high stakes to take longer
         | than that for a so easily reproducible experiment.
        
           | abrichr wrote:
           | > the video of lk-99 levitating above a magnet demonstrating
           | the Meissner effect
           | 
           | Can you please provide a link?
           | 
           | Edit: found it https://sciencecast.org/casts/suc384jly50n
        
           | drexlspivey wrote:
           | This guy is live tweeting his attempt to reproduce
           | https://twitter.com/andrewmccalip/status/1684433849781202944
        
             | justinclift wrote:
             | Seems to be a single post?
        
               | Thrymr wrote:
               | Because X (sigh) doesn't show replies in public (if not
               | logged in) anymore.
        
               | justinclift wrote:
               | Ahhh. Thanks. :)
               | 
               | Yeah, I can't be bothered logging in.
        
               | codethief wrote:
               | There you go: https://nitter.net/andrewmccalip/status/168
               | 4433849781202944
        
               | justinclift wrote:
               | Fantastic, thank you. :)
        
               | hackerting wrote:
               | You have to login to view the thread. The new Twitter
               | made it super confusing, I guess the UX designers are all
               | gone at this point at X
        
           | nazgulnarsil wrote:
           | It has been proposed that alternative mechanisms besides SC
           | can create diamagnetic effects. I think we're waiting on more
           | informed updates because the people with the competence to
           | comment on this are probably _working furiously in a lab
           | right now_ rather than commenting.
           | 
           | edit: useful comment elsethread by macromaniac on
           | plausibility of diamagnetic effects
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | Is that, "I never meant to publish this," or is that, "It was a
         | rough draft that I hadn't edited for accuracy or tone and fuck
         | Steve for uploading it."
        
           | bglazer wrote:
           | I'm guessing the second. Nothing in the interview suggests
           | that he doesn't stand behind the data. Sounds like he's
           | taking a wait and see approach and it's a very good sign that
           | he's offering to help other researchers try to replicate
        
           | elfbargpt wrote:
           | I really think this could be in-fighting for the third Nobel
           | prize spot (if it turns out to be legitimate). I pointed this
           | out in another comment, but the first two authors are the the
           | LK-99 material namesake and will likely always be the first
           | two authors.
           | 
           | "YW Kwon" published the first paper with himself as the 3rd
           | author, and "HT Kim" published the second paper a few hours
           | later with himself as the 3rd author.
           | 
           | Pretty interesting drama if that's the case. May indicate
           | neither paper was ready, but that they all think the result
           | is legitimate.
        
         | DarmokJalad1701 wrote:
         | Without paywall: https://archive.is/Lve8I
        
       | scarmig wrote:
       | One odd thing that I've not seen any discussion on: the reported
       | heat capacity of LK-99 decreases above 250K, which is pretty
       | atypical. Has there been any commentary on that?
        
         | groestl wrote:
         | > Has there been any commentary on that?
         | 
         | German, but nevertheless: http://blog.fefe.de/?ts=9a3f8740
         | 
         | "I work in the field [...] we don't believe a word of this.
         | [...] The data set in Fig. 4(b) is also a treat. It is VERY
         | unusual when the heat capacity decreases again at high
         | temperatures. This can happen at low temperatures, but not at
         | high temperatures. [...] My personal assumption is that the
         | authors measured an insulator, so no current flow and therefore
         | no voltage occurred (4-point measurement). This would look like
         | a superconductor. But if you then turn up the current (i.e. the
         | applied voltage), breakdowns may occur and a current begins to
         | flow. That would explain the sharp increase."
        
           | scarmig wrote:
           | Nice find.
        
             | distortionfield wrote:
             | Not really, it's just more speculation about the
             | experiment. It's worth as much as anyone else's salt about
             | the matter.
        
               | fh973 wrote:
               | It's from a guy of the Max Planck Institute for Solid
               | State Research.
        
               | nemo44x wrote:
               | He sounds rather bitter and arrogant. He basically just
               | called them idiots. As if none of the researchers would
               | have noticed the measurement error. Perhaps he's right -
               | we'll know in a few days I assume. I do hope they are
               | right though not only because it would be a huge leap but
               | also because I'd love to see this guys reaction.
        
               | xdennis wrote:
               | > He sounds rather bitter and arrogant.
               | 
               | That might be your interpretation of it. I think the
               | Germans would call it being straightforward.
        
               | groestl wrote:
               | It's a cultural thing, we tend to spare the buns from the
               | sandwich feedback ;)
        
               | stu255 wrote:
               | Lee and Kim have been working on this stuff for a long
               | time. They published prematurely after major falling out
               | within their institute.
               | 
               | This isn't 1 experiment as the Germans seem to think.
               | There are multiple papers, patents, etc.
               | 
               | The main focus of these papers has been to make huge
               | claims and make replication very easy. They are "all in"
               | and they want others to call.
               | 
               | If they were bluffing they would be heavy on results and
               | light/secretive on how to make the stuff (trade secret,
               | etc).
               | 
               | That's why there are 2x papers published within 3 hours,
               | both with different authors, and you have one author
               | telling New Scientist he did not approve of a paper
               | naming him as an author.
        
           | top_sigrid wrote:
           | Came here to mention this. Here is a full deepl translation
           | of the post, for those who are interested (in the above
           | linked post of a blog the blog author recites a mail from one
           | of his readers):
           | 
           | "I work in the field and we discussed the preprint a bit in
           | the research group this morning. In a nutshell, we don't
           | believe a word of it:                   Fig. 1(a) and (c) are
           | implausible. Normally, this sort of thing looks like this.
           | Note the gradual increase at low currents, this effect is
           | especially expected for magnetic fields.              Also
           | Fig. 1(d) cannot be correct. At Tc ~ 400K the Meissner effect
           | would displace a much stronger field than 10 Oe = 1 mT. I.e.
           | the distinction between FC (field cooled) and ZFC (zero-field
           | cooled) should not be so pronounced. It should look more like
           | this.
           | 
           | What the authors might mean is that they are outside the
           | Meissner range, which can occur at higher magnetic fields
           | (keyword: Type II superconductors). This then looks like
           | this.
           | 
           | But in this case the temperature dependence does not agree at
           | all with the critical currents of Fig. 1(a) and (c).
           | 
           | And also that ALL values in Fig. 1(d) are negative is
           | extremely unusual, but this could perhaps be argued.
           | The data set in Fig. 4(b) is also a treat. It is VERY unusual
           | to see the heat capacity decrease again at high temperatures.
           | This can happen at low temperatures, but rather not at high
           | temperatures.              I know the described experimental
           | setup / cryostat very well. There is no reasonable reason why
           | the authors did not measure at higher temperatures to show
           | that the behavior above Tc ~ 400K is significantly different.
           | E.g. a temperature dependence of the resistance would have
           | been mandatory.              In general, the paper is very
           | poorly written. The data are not adequately discussed, the
           | explanations are poor, and the papers cited are rather, shall
           | we say, meager. This does not inspire confidence in what the
           | authors have measured and want to have seen there.
           | My personal guess is that the authors measured an insulator,
           | accordingly no current flowed, and thus no voltage occurred
           | (4-point measurement). Then it looks like a superconductor.
           | But if you then turn up the current (i.e. the applied
           | voltage), there may be breakdowns and a current starts to
           | flow. This would explain the sudden increase."
        
           | RyanAdamas wrote:
           | Wow, that's pretty damning. Good one.
        
             | jeepers6 wrote:
             | "Damning" is the wrong word here. "Damning" would be "oh,
             | look, the researchers forgot that the plot showing zero
             | voltage also shows current dropping to zero. They're
             | clearly measuring a bad contact."
             | 
             | But the papers don't show that. There's no obvious
             | contradiction unless you make some big assumptions.
        
               | singularity2001 wrote:
               | OP works in the field and provides good arguments. You
               | can translate the full blog post.
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | A 4-point measurement of an insulator would show zero
           | current, as far as I know.
           | 
           | A more plausible idea IMO is that it could be a 4-point
           | measurement of a highly inhomogeneous sample. If the current
           | probes make contact with conductive parts of the sample, and
           | there is a conductive path between them, but one or both
           | voltage probes are not contacting the conductive path, then
           | the voltage measurement would be garbage and potentially
           | zero.
           | 
           | I don't think this is much of a problem when measuring
           | conventional conductors (you don't need a particularly _good_
           | contact, which is much of the point), but a lot of
           | superconductors are oddball materials where, under conditions
           | where they fail to superconduct, they barely conduct at all.
           | 
           | So maybe the sample has a conducting phase and an insulating
           | phase?
        
             | BizarroLand wrote:
             | Wouldn't it be odd for an amalgam of lead and copper to be
             | non-conductive?
             | 
             | I know they were formed from sulfur compounds, but the
             | production process should have eliminated those compounds,
             | and the final forming is done in a vacuum so there
             | shouldn't be any oxide generation to form non-conductive
             | barriers.
             | 
             | I don't know much about the process but shouldn't they be
             | testing resistance in a superconductor?
        
               | scentoni wrote:
               | It's not an amalgam (that means a mercury alloy) or any
               | metallic alloy. It's an oxide (more complicated than that
               | but there's more oxygen atoms than metal atoms).
        
               | BizarroLand wrote:
               | Amalgam can also mean, "A mixture or combination of
               | different things" such as "an amalgam of musical genres"
               | or "an amalgam of unsavory dog food flavors", which,
               | since we aren't talking about mercury at all, nor are we
               | talking about any form of dentistry, should have be
               | evident and deducible from the context.
               | 
               | https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/eng
               | lis...
               | 
               | And we very much are talking about an alloy, which is a
               | "metallic substance composed of two or more elements"
               | 
               | https://www.britannica.com/technology/alloy
               | 
               | Lead is a metal. Copper is a metal, a combination of 2
               | metals is an alloy.
               | 
               | However, you are right, I did overlook that the compound
               | is an oxide, my bad.
        
             | singularity2001 wrote:
             | A 4-point measurement of an insulator would show zero
             | current, as far as I know.
             | 
             | The blog post suggests it might be electrical breakdown of
             | the material at a certain voltage
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | floxy wrote:
       | Since it is apparently expected that the material is almost
       | trivial to synthesize, I'm wondering why the original group
       | hasn't tried to get an outside independent source to verify one
       | of their samples before dropping this on the arXiv? Is there some
       | other internal reason/pressure to release this now? Like they've
       | tried to be in stealth mode for the two years since applying for
       | the patent, but risks of leaks are growing, and now they are
       | rushed? Or maybe they have had some independent outside
       | confirmation, but I guess you don't need to share it if you know
       | you've got the goods, and are confident that everyone will be
       | able to reproduce it in short order. Otherwise, I'd think I'd be
       | trying to have 100 samples queued up for anyone who wants to
       | verify.
        
         | sanxiyn wrote:
         | As far as I can tell, https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 is the
         | paper by the original group and
         | https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 is the paper they wrote with
         | an outsider. Their chosen independent outsider is Hyun-Tak Kim.
        
         | wenyuanyu wrote:
         | Exactly opposite, they needed to drop this on arXiv first to
         | stake their claim before anyone else. It's open for everyone to
         | test out now, so if it's legit, we'll know soon. Also, it's a
         | smart move if they're worried about leaks, now they're in
         | control of the news.
        
       | elfbargpt wrote:
       | One interesting thing I saw pointed out on twitter: both of the
       | published papers have "Lee" and "JH Kim" as the first two authors
       | (LK-99 material namesake).
       | 
       | The first paper was published by YW Kwon with himself as the
       | third author. The second paper was published a few hours later by
       | Hyun-Tak Kim with _himself_ as the third author. As others have
       | pointed out there can only be 3 names on the ticket for a nobel
       | prize.
       | 
       | To me this might indicate that they all think the result is
       | potentially nobel-worthy, and also that the papers may not be as
       | complete / rigorous as they should have been due to this drama /
       | race to publish (YW Kwon published without permission to get his
       | name out there, forcing Hyun-Tak to push his out a few hours
       | later)
        
         | Koiwai wrote:
         | If this is true, I think the nobel prize committee would
         | happily make an exception for them.
        
         | dustypotato wrote:
         | The K-Drama I'd like to follow :)
        
         | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
         | If this is real, it's worth a nobel in both physics _and_
         | chemistry, so there are plenty of accolades to go around!
        
       | obblekk wrote:
       | The researchers definitely believe it's real - they're fighting
       | over who gets credit (hence the double paper publication).
       | 
       | Only a few days left until replications should start pouring
       | in...
        
       | jonplackett wrote:
       | If this material does just what they say it does, what would it
       | revolutionise?
       | 
       | Or as the article talks about, is this just a pointer at other
       | possibilities that would be the real game changers?
        
         | soligern wrote:
         | I'm just thinking aloud here but would this enable actual
         | perpetual motion machines? For instance, wouldn't the pushback
         | from the quantum locked superconductor be an infinite source of
         | energy?
        
           | m4x wrote:
           | In the same way that the pushback from the earth you're
           | standing on is an infinite source of energy
        
             | soligern wrote:
             | It isn't though. You can use gravity to apply the weight to
             | the superconductor and the pushback would be against
             | gravity.
        
               | p1mrx wrote:
               | You can also hang a weight on a spring. Neither helps you
               | override the laws of thermodynamics.
        
           | p1mrx wrote:
           | > wouldn't [x] be an infinite source of energy?
           | 
           | In general, the answer to this question is "no."
        
         | tamimio wrote:
         | I would build a drone that levitates indefinitely.. for a
         | starter.
        
           | m463 wrote:
           | but not above 400 feet.
        
             | tamimio wrote:
             | And doesn't exceed 25kg.. at least per the silly TC
             | regulations here in Canada.
        
             | terafo wrote:
             | Can you explain this part?
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | m463 wrote:
               | like parking tickets for supercars... :)
               | 
               | FAA says even superconducting superdrones can't go over
               | 400 feet.
        
               | terafo wrote:
               | And can you also explain "indefinite levitation" to me?
               | IIRC you can do some levitation over metallic surfaces or
               | magnets, but that would require power, wouldn't it?
        
               | m463 wrote:
               | not qualified to explain the levitation, seems to be some
               | sort of self-stabilizing magnetic field due to zero-
               | resistance current.
               | 
               | But there is plenty of magnetic levitation right now
               | without power:
               | 
               | https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N2Z9QAP
               | 
               | also, balloons.
        
         | neltnerb wrote:
         | I mean, it depends a lot on how ductile a final product is.
         | High temperature superconducting "wire" took a long time to
         | become realistic. If you somehow made a ductile and inexpensive
         | wire out of it then it's going to be everywhere (and lead
         | poison everyone for generations, but that's progress for you).
         | 
         | Of course if you can make wire out of it, I wonder how much
         | smaller your fusion reactor can get?
         | 
         | There are a lot of applications for even a thin film, consider
         | spray coating a resonant cavity with it.
         | 
         | I'm sure there is a way to improve almost anything you could
         | think about if you start talking about making CPUs with lower
         | heat dissipation, perhaps enabling 3D designs and much more
         | efficient computing... [edit: obviously there is a limit from
         | literally the entropy in computing and transistors are most of
         | that, I wonder if the superconductor is a good thermal
         | conductor...]
         | 
         | I'm sure there are at least 222 startups that have some idea
         | they're pitching right now ;-)
        
         | elihu wrote:
         | I think it'd be valuable for anything that conducts
         | electricity, and where resistive losses are significant or
         | where strong electromagnets are desired.
         | 
         | So, long distance electricity transmission, motors, generators,
         | MRI machines and magnetic confinement nuclear fusion reactors
         | for example.
         | 
         | That said, the material as synthesized might not be very good
         | for some particular application. The current handling capacity
         | might not be good enough, or it might not be physically strong
         | enough to use as motor windings.
         | 
         | I don't know enough to do the comparison, but I'd be curious
         | how this new material holds up when compared to copper or
         | aluminum wire in terms of current capacity, weight, strength,
         | and cost of materials. One of the big reasons for skepticism
         | about humanity's prospects for converting to a non-fossil-fuel
         | based energy system is that there just isn't enough of the
         | important metal resources to build all the
         | batteries/EVs/transmission lines/solar panels/windmills we
         | need. I myself am skeptical of the skeptics because I think the
         | resource bottlenecks are overstated and there are usually
         | acceptable workarounds, but I do think copper is going to be in
         | very high demand over then next several decades. If we have a
         | good, cheap copper alternative then that solves that problem.
         | (It also introduces another, as we would then have to deal with
         | enormous quantities of lead-based cabling.)
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | Video games will be more realistic.
        
           | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
           | ... In the sense that reality will become more like it is in
           | video games?
        
         | RC_ITR wrote:
         | A lot of people are talking about very cool practical use
         | cases, but I'm here just thinking 'all of our trains could
         | float, wouldn't that be neat?' [0]
         | 
         | [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCMaglev
        
           | scarmig wrote:
           | I'm excited about the ball bearings.
        
             | XorNot wrote:
             | New era of sound proofing too: RT superconductors and
             | neodyminium magnets levitating your inner-room separate
             | from the building.
        
               | bick_nyers wrote:
               | Finally I'll be able to get some good sleep!
        
               | Vecr wrote:
               | How much would that reduce sound if they were quantum
               | locked?
        
         | Fordec wrote:
         | In the immediate short term, the power level supported is too
         | low for the real shiny applications that everyone talks about.
         | 
         | But the main one that is screaming at me for this technology
         | sitting in front of us is SQUID sensors and RF antennas that
         | will operate in the lower power range of the potential
         | applications spectrum.
        
           | hatsunearu wrote:
           | how does superconductivity benefit RF antennas?
           | 
           | AFAIK loss at AC still occurs with superconductors because
           | the dielectric loss through the materials still exists.
        
             | floxy wrote:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_radio_frequen
             | c...
        
             | superkuh wrote:
             | Search "superdirective superconducting antenna". With
             | normal conductors the directivity of an antenna depends on
             | how many wavelengths it spans; the summation of the
             | currents over the effective aperture. With superconducting
             | materials you can exploit the weirdness in current
             | distribution to make very directional antennas that are
             | _small_ relative to the wavelength.
             | 
             | It could be a game changer for making efficient directional
             | small receive antennas. Normally electrically small
             | antennas are just super inefficient but it's made up for
             | either on the transmit side (like with high power AM radio)
             | or with most of the gain coming from some low noise
             | amplifier (like small UHF wireless devices).
        
               | carabiner wrote:
               | Could we get high speed satellite internet on a
               | cellphone?
        
               | superkuh wrote:
               | Probably not. It will make the really small really
               | inefficient antennas stuck in things like 2-5x better.
               | But they still won't be outperforming full size resonant
               | non-superconducting antenna.
        
         | TedDoesntTalk wrote:
         | > what would it revolutionise?
         | 
         | "Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass
         | hysteria!" --Venkman
        
         | local_issues wrote:
         | Fusion.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | lofatdairy wrote:
         | MRIs would be another revolutionized field. Cooling is a big
         | size constraint and cost driver. You would still need a large
         | amount of power if you want to have clinical scans at 3T or 5T,
         | though, but in wealthy countries the number of MRI machines
         | would for sure proliferate and it would probably become more
         | routine. Low-resource environment deployments may become a tad
         | more feasible, to be honest the power requirements will still
         | probably be too high, but at least you wouldn't need an always-
         | on source.
        
         | gene-h wrote:
         | As far as I can tell the critical field, the maximum magnetic
         | field it can withstand before turning into a regular conductor,
         | is relatively low at 0.3 Tesla. In superconductors like YBCO,
         | it's often more than 100 T. If critical field cannot be
         | increased this will limit applications.
         | 
         | Near term may be useful for devices which take advantage of
         | quantum effects such as Superconducting QUantum interference
         | devices or SQUIDs.
         | 
         | Use in microelectronics may be possible, but is likely quite
         | difficult. Making complicated structures out of this material
         | will require radically new microelectronic manufacturing
         | processes. HTSC microelectronics don't exist as far as I can
         | tell.
         | 
         | If critical field can be improved things get interesting. If it
         | can be increased to that of known HTSCs at liquid nitrogen
         | temperatures(critical field scales with temperature), that's
         | interesting because this material should be cheaper.
         | 
         | If it can be increased moderately at room temperature, there is
         | the potential for it replacing rare earth magnets because the
         | material should be cheaper.
        
           | foven wrote:
           | 0.3 T is pretty insignificant for everyday use - you need
           | some pretty big coils carrying around 10 A to produce that
           | sort of field. For something like this, the benefit would be
           | in just making wires out of it for driving currents without
           | loss of power (no resistance, no heating). Think big bulky
           | overhead wires - but it's all moot if the material isn't a
           | superconductor.
        
         | spaceman_2020 wrote:
         | Well for starters, you would never have to hear that awful fan
         | noise from your computer :)
        
         | syntaxing wrote:
         | There's a ton of electromagnets that are super cooled (like
         | single digit K cold) so that it can maintain a large magnetic
         | field. While this is only the first step, pretty much any
         | application that does something similar can be replaced with
         | this room temperature super conductive material.
         | 
         | Not only products would be impacted but experiments too,
         | particularly particle experiments. All colliders need some sort
         | of ridiculous magnetic field which uses a close loop helium
         | chiller.
         | 
         | Long term wise, anything that uses electromagnetic fields would
         | be impacted, like motors and generators. You in theory can get
         | stupidly efficient motors (99%+) motors with super conductors.
        
         | flangola7 wrote:
         | Explosive weapons chargeable to any yield. Take a loop of
         | superconductor charged to the desired current, then warm it
         | beyond its critical point, dumping the electrical energy into
         | immediate heat. A 120mm tank shell is in the 10s of Kilowatt-
         | hours. No more special chemicals, just this lead based super
         | conductor and 20 minutes on an EV fast charger. Don't forget to
         | take it off the charger!
        
         | ska wrote:
         | Lots of systems with bulky and expensive cooling (think MRI
         | scanners, e.g.) could become vastly more accessible.
         | 
         | Wildly improved efficiency on some sensors, antenna, motors,
         | etc.
        
         | hovering_nox wrote:
         | Here's a few from the top of my head:
         | 
         | - A global power net. No solar power during the night? Just
         | produce it on the other side of the planet.
         | 
         | - A superconducting computer. Less resistance when pushing bits
         | around = 500x less power consumption.
         | 
         | - A Superconducting magnetic battery. Store power indefinitely
         | with high efficiency.
        
           | scarmig wrote:
           | Most power loss in a computer comes from MOSFETs, not
           | resistive loss. Which isn't to say that RTP superconductors
           | wouldn't open up wild new possibilities.
           | 
           | ETA: wrong
        
             | hovering_nox wrote:
             | _Much of the power consumed, and heat dissipated, by
             | conventional processors comes from moving information
             | between logic elements rather than the actual logic
             | operations. Because superconductors have zero electrical
             | resistance, little energy is required to move bits within
             | the processor._
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_computing#Fun
             | d...
        
               | ummonk wrote:
               | That statement in Wikipedia is flat out wrong and notably
               | isn't citing any source.
        
               | amelius wrote:
               | Incorrect.
               | 
               | https://www.ti.com/lit/an/scaa035b/scaa035b.pdf
               | 
               | This document explains it well. (The resistance of the
               | interconnect is not even mentioned as a significant
               | component of power consumption.)
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | You can synthesize superconducting FETs though: https://l
               | ink.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-011-1918-4_...
               | 
               | Obviously this isn't much benefit since the vast majority
               | of applications can't be liquid nitrogen cooled (and
               | computing has followed "what consumers will buy" on
               | progress).
               | 
               | That changes substantially if superconductors will keep
               | working when put in my pocket.
        
             | hatsunearu wrote:
             | I don't think this is true. Most of the power is dissipated
             | in the metal interconnect.
        
           | bick_nyers wrote:
           | Not only less power consumption on Computers but a 100x
           | improvement in clock speeds, a 500GHz CPU would be absolutely
           | insane.
           | 
           | Whether or not we can manufacture/shrink the superconductor
           | circuits enough to be competitive with semiconductors is
           | another question, but my naive interpretation is that if you
           | can make the superconductor circuits 100x larger than a
           | silicon circuit, it is still going to have significant
           | advantages.
        
           | jimkoen wrote:
           | > A global power net. No solar power during the night? Just
           | produce it on the other side of the planet.
           | 
           | This sounds like it has interesting ramifications for global
           | politics. At the beginning of the Ukraine war, one major
           | lever the Russian government had was to enable blackouts in
           | Ukraine. Makes you wonder how a global power network could
           | work in light of international conflict.
        
           | pyrale wrote:
           | If yesterday's comments were correct, you can strike the
           | power transport and storage use cases, as this material has a
           | pretty low electric current density.
        
           | SkyBelow wrote:
           | Wouldn't less power loss not just mean lower power
           | consumption, but the ability to run it at higher speeds while
           | keeping the same cooling technology we current have?
        
             | bick_nyers wrote:
             | Even faster. That is to say, even faster than a
             | semiconductor CPU that didn't generate any heat whatsoever
             | (or was cooled with liquid helium).
             | 
             | Assuming of course it is possible to shrink the
             | superconductor circuits down to the same size of the
             | semiconductor counterpart.
        
       | wcerfgba wrote:
       | If this is real, what are the
       | consequences/impacts/implications/applications? I don't know
       | anything about superconductors!
        
         | MayeulC wrote:
         | Well, There are countless comments addressing this, but
         | possibly more on the earlier thread
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36864624
        
       | mmastrac wrote:
       | This is an extremely useful summarization of the original paper.
       | 
       | > The authors believe that the modified/strained structure of
       | their material creates a large number of "quantum wells" between
       | particular lead atoms and the adjacent oxygens of the phosphate
       | groups bound to them, in effect making a two-dimensional
       | "electron gas". They propose that electron tunneling between
       | these quantum wells, which are between 3.7 and 6.5 Angstroms
       | apart, is the superconducting mechanism. I am not enough of a
       | solid-state physicist to judge this proposal, but the authors are
       | making a detailed mechanistic claim that is subject to
       | experimental proof, which is very good to see, and and they
       | adduce a good deal of data to back it up (x-ray diffraction, EPR,
       | and more). And they demonstrate the behaviors that a
       | superconductor should have, such as the Meissner effect
       | (expulsion of a magnetic field), sudden resistivity changes at a
       | critical temperature (bizarrely high though that is in this
       | case), current-voltage (I-V) plots at different temperatures and
       | under different magnetic field strengths, etc. If these data
       | reproduce, the superconductivity of this material seems beyond
       | doubt.
        
         | cma wrote:
         | > sudden resistivity changes at a critical temperature
         | (bizarrely high though that is in this case)
         | 
         | How high? Just wondering if it might eventually be possible to
         | use it in some power/clocking distribution layers of a
         | semiconductor chip without bulky cooling.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | 127C!
        
           | elihu wrote:
           | That's a good idea. Honestly, I find it pretty amazing that
           | modern CPUs don't just instantly turn into a puddle of molten
           | metal as soon as you turn them on.
           | 
           | The critical temperature is 127 C, as the other commenter
           | mentioned. That seems like it's high enough to be useful in a
           | computer CPU.
           | 
           | I suppose there might also be applications for power
           | distribution in a data center. You might use a few large,
           | high-efficiency low voltage DC power supplies to supply the
           | whole site instead of hundreds or thousands of individual
           | power supplies if electrical resistance in cables was less of
           | an issue. (I think this sort of thing is done now, but more
           | at the rack level, since long cable runs cause losses.) You
           | might even use 1V power instead of 5V or 12V.
           | 
           | (Granted, superconducting materials don't have unlimited
           | current capacity, and bad things happen if you exceed the
           | limit.)
        
             | axiomaticdoubts wrote:
             | The critical temperature is not 127 C. They did not
             | actually measure the critical temperature. They just said
             | it's _at least_ 400 K (~127 C), probably because that was
             | the maximum temperature the equipment they used could
             | measure.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | > Just wondering if it might eventually be possible to use it
           | in some power/clocking distribution layers of a semiconductor
           | chip
           | 
           | There's an additional obstacle factor here which is that the
           | material has to (a) be "sputterable" onto the surface, which
           | may rule out things with fancy crystal requirements, and (b)
           | not adversely react with the rest of the chip, which is why
           | coppper is ruled out (!) and chips use aluminium for metal
           | layers.
        
             | cma wrote:
             | Copper replaced aluminum some time ago (starting ~1997)
             | regardless because of the resistivity, and they just had to
             | find different barrier materials to prevent
             | electromigration and overcome other issues.
        
         | AndrewKemendo wrote:
         | Totally agree. This is science at it's best, with maximum
         | skepticism (and a dash of hope), in front of our eyes!
         | 
         | Even better, it's a HUGE claim that is going to show how
         | epistemology in science works (reproduction!!)
        
         | akjssdk wrote:
         | I don't think the actual proposed superconductivity mechanism
         | is the relevant part of this paper. It is much easier to prove
         | that this is superconducting than to prove why. And in a sense
         | it is a bit less relevant. Although developing a working theory
         | for room temperature is also probably worth a Nobel prize, so I
         | am willing to bet some theorists are also running to their
         | blackboards as we speak.
        
           | glenstein wrote:
           | >I don't think the actual proposed superconductivity
           | mechanism is the relevant part of this paper. It is much
           | easier to prove that this is superconducting than to prove
           | why.
           | 
           | As another commenter has pointed out, the proposal of a new
           | mechanism seems to be extraordinary and novel, and could lead
           | to an explosion of new research, so it does indeed seem to be
           | "relevant" on its merits.
           | 
           | I also don't see this as a case of the "why" being left
           | unexplained. In the history of superconducting it has indeed
           | been the case that new cocktails have led to
           | superconductivity without the underlying why being
           | understood. But the commenter that you're responding to
           | quotes part of the paper that shows an awfully specific
           | mechanism.
           | 
           | I understand the sense in which there can be a "why" that
           | remains to be explained in certain circumstances, even when
           | you have a mechanism. Who do monarch butterflies have the
           | black and orange pattern on their wings? There's a cause and
           | effect answer but there's also a "why" answer. But with
           | superconductivity, the mechanism _is_ the why, unless I 'm
           | misunderstanding here. If other forms of superconductivity
           | rely on other mechanisms, there isn't going to be a general
           | why connecting this case to the other cases, but nor is there
           | anything left unexplained just by explaining the "why" of
           | this case by explaining it's extraordinary mechanism.
        
           | ethn wrote:
           | They made a synthetic a priori prediction proven by
           | experiment. In science, that's the strongest type of claim.
        
             | seeknotfind wrote:
             | You might also say it's the only type of claim science
             | recognizes. Though, whatever or how strong a claim is, the
             | question is how important is what is proven and will it
             | lead to real superconductive materials.
        
             | throwawaymaths wrote:
             | The strongest type of claim is when an a priori claim is
             | called absurd, someone goes to make observations to
             | disprove it and comes back convinced of your theory.
        
           | aaron695 wrote:
           | [dead]
        
           | fnordpiglet wrote:
           | I'm not entirely sure that's true. A posit in the paper is
           | this is a novel super conducting mechanism and as such if the
           | mechanism is true it's totally unexplored. That leaves open a
           | huge field of new research. That's certainly a relevant part
           | of the paper. Super conductivity at room temperature is an
           | amazing breakthrough alone, but if it was with a clever tweak
           | with an existing well established technique that would be the
           | end of the story. The fact it's an entirely new technique
           | opens a world unexplored and indicates a pathway to even more
           | amazing discoveries to be had (and funding for entire
           | generations of physicists).
        
             | glenstein wrote:
             | Right. The mechanism itself seems extraordinary. And it
             | seems like that mechanism is exactly the "why", the
             | commenter is claiming is more important.
             | 
             | Moreover, you can have more than one thing about a paper be
             | the "relevant" thing.
        
           | Terr_ wrote:
           | > I don't think the actual proposed superconductivity
           | mechanism is the relevant part of this paper.
           | 
           | Plus even if the proposed-mechanism is incorrect and even if
           | the effect is not strong enough for practical engineering...
           | There's value in a "real" (if weak) superconductor which is
           | both easy to fabricate and easy to run tests on.
           | 
           | It could become a starting-point for dozens of other tweaked
           | formulations, enabling all sorts of not-so-expensive
           | experiments and fresh data about how different parameters
           | lead to different electromagnetic outcomes.
        
           | local_issues wrote:
           | Ding ding ding! We still don't know how bikes work, we have a
           | pretty good but incomplete model for lift on airplanes, and
           | no one has the faintest why Tylenol works.
           | 
           | We should figure that out! But we can definitely keep using
           | all the applications until then. (Except for Tylenol, we keep
           | learning how bad that stuff is)
           | 
           | EDIT: It won't let me post more, so here's the answers to
           | responses.
           | 
           | For sure!
           | 
           | https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/science-of-cycling-still-
           | mys...
           | 
           | http://www3.eng.cam.ac.uk/~hemh1/gyrobike.htm
           | 
           | https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730370-400-how-
           | does...
           | 
           | It's a fun little fact. We know a ton about BUILDING bikes,
           | which is a more useful tool anyway
        
             | intrasight wrote:
             | We don't know how photosynthesis works but we know a ton
             | about GROWING things. And life as we know it depends on
             | photosynthesis.
        
               | MVissers wrote:
               | I thought we had a pretty good understanding of this up
               | until the molecular and electron level.
               | 
               | Am I missing something?
        
               | dotnet00 wrote:
               | How photosynthesis works at a cell machinery level is
               | high school level biology.
        
             | ummonk wrote:
             | Nonsense. There's nothing incomplete about our model for
             | lift on airplanes.
        
               | aeternum wrote:
               | Oh really, so why do the Navier-Stokes equations work?
        
               | ummonk wrote:
               | If you're asking how to apply the Navier-Stokes
               | equations: apply boundary conditions
               | 
               | If you're asking how to derive the Navier-Stokes
               | equations, use continuum / conservation principles.
        
               | dkqmduems wrote:
               | Conservation of momentum?
        
               | bandrami wrote:
               | There's no _a priori_ reason conservation of momentum
               | would apply; for that matter in 0-angle-of-attack
               | aviation it doesn 't.
               | 
               | Maybe to put it differently, the "Newtonian" model of
               | flight comes out of _assuming_ CoM applies, which we know
               | isn 't universally true.
               | 
               | EDITING: of course it always "applies" in the sense that
               | there is a definable system in which total momentum will
               | be unchanged, the point being that there is no guarantee
               | that's a system in which the plane gets lift greater than
               | its weight
        
               | coderenegade wrote:
               | A symmetrical airfoil at zero angle of attack doesn't
               | generate lift because it doesn't turn the fluid. A non
               | symmetrical airfoil will generate lift even at zero AOA
               | because air has viscosity and the lack of symmetry causes
               | it to turn around the shape. When you bend fluid flow,
               | COM comes into play.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | mthomasmw wrote:
             | Do you have a link handy for "we don't know how bikes work"
             | ?
        
               | hatsunearu wrote:
               | Yeah, that's complete crap. Bike dynamics is well
               | researched and the instability and stability mechanisms
               | are numerous but well understood.
        
               | hughw wrote:
               | e.g. _What keeps bicycles balanced with or without a
               | rider is still an active area of research, and even the
               | seemingly basic idea that, for a bicycle to be self-
               | stable, it needs to turn the handlebars into the fall,
               | has not yet been proven._
               | 
               | [*]https://ciechanow.ski/bicycle/
        
               | IshKebab wrote:
               | "Active area of research" is quite different to "we don't
               | know how they work".
               | 
               | We know how they work. We might not have _fully
               | characterised the stability conditions_ , but that's not
               | the same thing.
        
               | babypuncher wrote:
               | I think their point still stands, even if "we don't know
               | how bikes work" is a flowery exaggeration.
        
               | IshKebab wrote:
               | But then we don't know how anything works...
        
               | DonHopkins wrote:
               | Yet we still have Insane Clown Posse refrigerator
               | magnets.
               | 
               | https://www.insaneclownpossemerch.com/collections/insane-
               | clo...
               | 
               | Scientists Try To Teach ICP Fans How Fucking Magnets Work
               | 
               | https://metalinjection.net/av/scientists-teach-icp-fans-
               | fuck...
        
               | babypuncher wrote:
               | But their point is we don't need a 100% complete
               | scientific understanding of something in order to
               | engineer it into something cool or useful.
        
               | IshKebab wrote:
               | That is true, but it's still incorrect to say we don't
               | understand how bicycles work.
        
               | hughw wrote:
               | Cmon, man
        
               | salty_biscuits wrote:
               | You can write out the equations of motion for a bicycle
               | that will very accurately predict the dynamics. You can
               | put these equations into a numerical simulation and
               | predict motion very accurately. You can change the
               | parameters of the model and do simulations with high
               | confidence. Just because there isn't some neat little
               | equation that says exactly what each parameter change is
               | going to do (without doing the simulation) doesn't mean
               | that we don't understand bicycle physics. It's a silly
               | line of reasoning. Those articles are hyperbolic.
        
               | ddalex wrote:
               | You are contradicting yourself:
               | 
               | > You can write out the equations of motion for a bicycle
               | 
               | > there isn't some neat little equation that says exactly
               | what each parameter change is going to do
               | 
               | I mean, if you have the equations you can see what each
               | parameter is doing !
        
               | salty_biscuits wrote:
               | Algebraic versus differential if that wasn't clear
        
               | jerf wrote:
               | Something smaller than may help you grasp this idea:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nW3nJhBHL0
               | 
               | There are things we can characterize to any desired
               | degree of accuracy but that e don't get cute little
               | equations out of... and some of those things are so
               | simple they've been staring you in the face since middle
               | school and you just didn't ever notice their absence from
               | your formula sheets.
               | 
               | This is not the exact same situation being described but
               | it's a similar thing. Being able to put a complex system
               | into a computer and arbitrarily manipulate it still
               | doesn't mean we can extract some simple explanation.
               | 
               | On the other end of the scale, see all the AIs coming
               | out. They're 100% computer artifacts with theoretically
               | no mystery in them whatsoever... but they're just tables
               | of billions of opaque numbers and doing anything with the
               | numbers beyond just running them is amazingly difficult.
        
               | prasadjoglekar wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | post-it wrote:
               | I'm not super interested in watching Joe Rogan and RFK,
               | is there a particular bit where they talk about bikes?
        
               | CSMastermind wrote:
               | There's nothing about bicycles in the video he linked.
        
               | post-it wrote:
               | A classic Freudian clip.
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | Amazing choice of word. Always check your clipboard links
               | before pushing send.
        
               | Guthur wrote:
               | Is it RFKs voice? I find it a little difficult to listen
               | to as well.
        
               | riversflow wrote:
               | I think that is the wrong link?
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | As a bit of an aside, most people don't know how bicycle
               | wheels work. There's a whole section in
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bicycle_Wheel that
               | talks about how they actually work. It's not tension at
               | the top, it's compression on the bottom.
        
               | denimnerd42 wrote:
               | what do you mean it's not tension at the top? did you
               | misspeak? bicycle spokes are solely under tensile forces.
               | they can't support compressive forces at all. i'm a
               | hobbyist wheel builder and a once upon a time
               | professional bicycle mechanic during hs & college.
               | 
               | if you want to test this take nearly all the pretension
               | out of your spokes and sit on your bike. feel which ones
               | are taught and which ones are completely loose. or just
               | go to walmart. those bikes hardly have any pretension in
               | their wheels.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | That book I linked has another name, "the wheel building
               | bible". Jobst Brandt earned an obituary in Bicycling
               | magazine including quotes from his friend Tom Ritchey
               | (one of the original mountain bike makers). Jobst was a
               | bike fanatic and a mechanical engineer.
               | 
               | Bike spokes are not loose, they're under substantial
               | tension. Bolts, I just learned a couple weeks ago, work
               | in the opposite way. A tightened bolt compresses the two
               | pieces of metal together, and when you tug on them, the
               | bolt doesn't stretch more. The tension instead first
               | cancels out some of the compressive force on the two
               | pieces of metal, before the bolt ever feels more load.
               | 
               | Conversely, all the spokes on the wheel are under
               | tension. When you put the wheel on a surface and push
               | down, the compression cancels out some of the tension on
               | the bottom of the wheel. Cancel out all of the tension,
               | and the wheel turns into a potato chip if you don't
               | reload it exactly, perfectly on axis. IIRC, none of the
               | prior models or theories for how a spoked wheel works
               | could adequately explain how potato chipping happens. His
               | does.
               | 
               | I used his book to build half a dozen wheels or so and
               | the information it contained to fix many more.
        
               | denimnerd42 wrote:
               | i own the book.. and also The Art of Wheelbuilding - Gerd
               | Schraner
               | 
               | of course in a properly built wheel usually all the spoke
               | are under tension...
               | 
               | i was just demonstrating the fact that the spokes on the
               | upper half of the wheel are supporting the hub and are
               | under greater tension than the bottom ones, the spokes on
               | the bottom half of the wheel should remain in tension,
               | but only through the fact that they are already under
               | tension applied during the building of the wheel.
               | 
               | the fact that the wheel works by tension of the spokes
               | becomes obviously apparent when you start to remove the
               | pretension and then the spokes will feel loose on the
               | bottom half. of course you'd never want to ride a wheel
               | like that because it will quickly become out of true..
               | just like a walmart wheel.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | I think one of us needs to reread that book, because he
               | emphatically denies that tension at the top of the wheel
               | increases. It's tension at the bottom that decreases.
               | 
               | > of course in a properly built wheel usually all the
               | spoke are under tension...
               | 
               | No, a properly built wheel all of the spokes are always
               | under enough tension you can bounce a penny off them.
               | Always.
        
               | denimnerd42 wrote:
               | no. you're assuming the rim has no deflection which is
               | untrue. if you build a rim out of schedule 80 steel pipe
               | then yea. but 300-400-500g rims on high performance bikes
               | do not act like that. the spokes are constantly loading
               | and unloading tension as they bash through rocks and over
               | jumps. the point is that the pretension on the wheel
               | needs to be high enough the spokes do not loosen too much
               | under these forces. if they do in fact loosen too much
               | the nipples will begin to loosen and unwind and the wheel
               | will become out of balance.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | I'm not assuming the rim has no deflection. What makes
               | you think that.
               | 
               | Anyway, this sums it up pretty well. Someone has a longer
               | memory than I:
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36891231
               | 
               | If you're talking about twisted spokes unwinding, you
               | don't have to reach zero load for that to happen. You
               | just need to reduce the load enough so the rotational
               | force overcomes friction. Tension will also try to unwind
               | a screw as well. But the thread pitch on spokes is very
               | fine, which lessens that force. If you build spokes like
               | wood screws we would have problems and that has nothing
               | to do with reaching 0 newtons.
               | 
               | You can release a lot of those tensions by squeezing the
               | spokes mid build. Just don't wait until they're too tight
               | to do it. I had a pulse in my rear wheel that probably
               | came from doing that wrong the first time. Unless it was
               | a factory defect, I must have overtensioned and warped a
               | brand new Mavic aero rim ever so slightly. Expensive
               | lesson, but it could have been worse.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | bradyd wrote:
               | They even make spokes that are rope
               | 
               | https://berdspokes.com/pages/technology
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | I wonder if those have less or more breakin issues
               | compared to spokes. With a spoke you have to reset the
               | angle of the bend to the shortest distance between the
               | hub and the rim. But with cables they have to settle in
               | along their entire length.
               | 
               | Doesn't change the answer. They're still compressing.
               | They're just pretensioned.
        
               | wiredfool wrote:
               | There's a lot more creep early on, which is compensated
               | for by a staged tensioning over the course of a few days.
               | They may require the spoke holes in the hub to be
               | radiused, which can be a warranty issue between you and
               | the hub manufacturer. Windup is controlled by a flat on
               | the small bit of spoke used for threads.
               | 
               | They're ok (i.e., made it through Tour Divide with no
               | issues), done well they're certainly better than badly
               | done steel spokes, but it's not clear if the best builds
               | are better than the best steel builds.
        
               | denimnerd42 wrote:
               | you sound highly confused, what is compressing? the rim?
               | the spoke?
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | You need to reread Brandt.
               | 
               | There are two situations when you can push on a string.
               | One is when it's frozen, and the other when it's
               | tensioned. How do you unload a bow string? You push it
               | off the notches.
        
               | denimnerd42 wrote:
               | bro. you're wrong. just build a bicycle wheel some time.
               | it becomes very obvious how they work as you take it
               | through the various stages of tensioning.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Why do you think someone would talk about Brandt's work
               | if they hadn't used it?
               | 
               | I've built more than half a dozen bicycle wheels. My set,
               | my spare that my brother road (into the ground - my first
               | set and practically the only problematic ones, but he
               | road over bumps without getting out of the saddle), a set
               | my dad commissioned from me, and a pair that he had me
               | build for a friend. All by age 17.
               | 
               | I then worked as a mechanic for two summers of college. I
               | was never the fastest, but if we had a customer we could
               | not afford to disappoint, I or the senior mechanic got
               | the job because my repairs did not come back.
               | 
               | I saved three or four wheels that would have been scrap
               | by unwinding the spokes halfway and building it back up
               | again like a wheel build. Only added an extra ten or
               | fifteen minutes but it works a charm. When a good
               | customer comes in on Wednesday before an out of town bike
               | ride you can't afford to fuck it up. I think I only built
               | a couple professionally, and usually singles. That's a
               | lot of labor and few will pay.
        
               | wiredfool wrote:
               | This dialogue is reminiscent of rec.bycycles.tech
               | arguments with Jobst, ca 1993.
               | 
               | A bike wheel is a linear elastic system, that can be
               | thought of as a superposition of a uniformly set of
               | tensioned spokes as one state, and a set of spokes in
               | compression in the loaded zone (bottom of the wheel) as
               | the other state. So long as the superposition of the two
               | states obeys the limiting conditions (i.e. spokes in
               | tension) they can be analysed separately.
               | 
               | The size of the loaded zone is related to the relative
               | stiffness of the spokes (axial) and the rim (bending),
               | and can be calculated using beam on elastic foundation
               | methods. For typical rim/spoke combinations, this is
               | approximately 4 spokes.
               | 
               | Outside of the loaded zone, spoke tensions essentially
               | don't change.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | And thread. Thereby proving my point: Almost nobody knows
               | how bicycle wheels actually work.
        
               | IshKebab wrote:
               | Nah they both understand it. One of them is just arguing
               | to show off.
        
               | sslayer wrote:
               | The real winner will be who comes up with application for
               | LK-99 to improve bicycles
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Electric bicycles baby.
        
               | denimnerd42 wrote:
               | Well. I wish we could sit in front of a bicycle wheel and
               | discuss it. Because I have a feeling we are shooting
               | arrows at different targets. As a mountain biker I'm more
               | interested in what happens when an extreme amount of load
               | is applied to the wheel, not the model with assumptions
               | applied. Definitely a difficult concept to discuss with
               | only text. Anyways.. glad to have a good discussion with
               | you about bicycle wheels. Don't find many people like
               | you. :)
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | I think I would have been a mechanical engineer if I were
               | born 20 years earlier or 20 years later. Software was
               | just new and shiny enough and it let me build things with
               | my mind, at a time when I believed I was clumsy (I
               | actually have always had excellent fine motor skills,
               | it's macro motor control I lagged behind in). One of my
               | better friends in college was an ME. Learned all sorts of
               | things about metal fatigue and oddly enough picosecond
               | lasers from him.
               | 
               | I don't know if I found Lego or Lego found me, but I
               | definitely think in terms of shapes. I was past my
               | midlife crisis before I realized that I don't have a
               | large working memory (smaller than average in fact) it's
               | just that I've been doing mind palaces without pictures
               | since I was very small. When I'm thinking of large
               | computer systems I'm essentially thinking of them as
               | physics problems.
               | 
               | I really should figure out space to have a bike again. I
               | never rode when I lived in Seattle (Seattle drivers are
               | nuts) but I don't live there anymore and I need to catch
               | up on 20 years of tech.
        
               | wiredfool wrote:
               | I think you're both in violent agreement using different
               | terms.
               | 
               | You're looking at the macro "It's all in tension"
               | (superposition of two states) and hinkley is looking at
               | the "bottom is a compressive change" (dynamic portion of
               | the load).
               | 
               | What I'm not clear of is if you think that the upper
               | spokes change tension between the unloaded case and the
               | plain gravity load case (force on hub down, ground on rim
               | up at the bottom), or if you expect the top half spokes
               | to increase and the bottom half to decrease in tension. I
               | think this is what hinkley thinks you think.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | That was indeed my interpretation of that half of the
               | conversation. That they were claiming that the axle is
               | suspended (tension increases with downforce) by the
               | spokes above the midline of the circle, which is what
               | Brandt vehemently contended was false.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Hey do you happen to recall, did Brandt prove this theory
               | with a tensiometer or did I just hallucinate that?
        
               | wiredfool wrote:
               | Pretty sure he did, but I don't have r.b.t. archives. He
               | was definitely a proponent of them, preferred a specific
               | brand/style, and would have easily been able to do the
               | experiment.
        
               | matsemann wrote:
               | Not to appeal to authority, but I wrote my thesis on
               | bicycle wheels. You got it the wrong way around.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | And have you read Brandt's work?
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36891231
               | 
               | The world is full of papers that are wrong. Including
               | maybe the one this whole thread is about. It's okay, it
               | happens. Science doesn't find right or wrong, though a
               | lot of people think so. It finds more wrong and less
               | wrong.
        
               | SkyBelow wrote:
               | I'm assuming they mean the balance mechanism, and
               | specifically what allows us to balance. How much is it
               | the rider shifting their weight, how much is micro
               | steering adjusts as we move forward, how much is the
               | gyroscopic forces of the wheels, how much of it has to do
               | with the angle of the handle bars to the wheel verse the
               | center of weight.
               | 
               | That said, I'm guessing this one is well understood by
               | experts, but more complex than someone would assume at
               | first glance, and many who have some understanding likely
               | have an incorrect or at least incomplete understanding of
               | how balancing works.
        
               | reaperman wrote:
               | We have self-balancing bicycles. We clearly know it well
               | enough to replace the human with a computerized machine.
               | 
               | Maybe we don't know how humans use the bicycle but we
               | know how bicycles balance, we can write programs to
               | balance them physically.
               | 
               | 0: https://youtu.be/Ya7iacmVjUM
               | 
               | 1: https://youtu.be/2Z67NkvXIF4
        
               | acters wrote:
               | You are correct, a lot of forces are canceling out on the
               | long term(instead of instantaneously) it can easily be
               | manipulated into increasing periods of unbalance in one
               | direction until a point is reached then a separate
               | mechanism is used to force it to a balanced state.
               | Conservation of energy is always in effect. Gyroscope
               | effects that bike wheels can be added with other separate
               | gyroscopes. Thus, a self righting bike. The effect called
               | precession is understood well enough.
               | 
               | How a human is able to manipulate it is simply by using
               | the force of gravity from shifting their weight(moving
               | the center of gravity). However, the movement of the
               | center of gravity has to be perpendicular to the wheels
               | axle. The steeper the angle of attack the wheel has to
               | the ground, there will need to be an exponential increase
               | in distance to move the center of gravity. Once the wheel
               | is parallel to the ground, there will be an undefined
               | distance needed to move the center of gravity.
        
               | BizarroLand wrote:
               | I wonder what learning the specific system by which bikes
               | are balanced would teach us about the world or human
               | beings?
               | 
               | It's such a banal thing to be so fascinating.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | We don't know until we know.
               | 
               | The smart phone is the culmination of understanding a
               | million facts about materials sciences (applied and
               | theoretical), some of which were obvious, some of which
               | were non-obvious. Starting from a transistor you could
               | see from across the room down to ones you can't even see
               | with a magnifying glass.
        
               | doctorwho42 wrote:
               | It's the reason I got a degree in physics, if you have
               | good professors - discussions like this cause you to
               | break down the problem quite quickly in your head in a
               | working model. Think force diagrams, but with a ton more
               | math backing it up.
               | 
               | I actually find the ice skate a better example than a
               | bike. We have all the physics solved for bikes, it's a
               | complicated system but so is everything in motion. Hence
               | we assume a spherical cow for the sake of the problem.
               | 
               | But ice skates... Now that's a funky one. Why do ice
               | skates works? Ice skates aren't sharp bladed, they
               | actually have flats. Ice is not slippery, it's when
               | something is on ice in between our shoes and the ice that
               | cause it to be slippery. Some people think it's the
               | localized pressure of the blade that causes ice to
               | locally melt. Hard to really wrap your head around. But
               | it works :)
        
               | jibe wrote:
               | _Ice skates aren 't sharp bladed_
               | 
               | Not sure how you meant that, but ice skates are sharp.
               | Each edge of the blade is sharpened by grinding a hollow
               | out of the center.
               | 
               | https://weekendwarriorshockey.com/how-sharp-should-my-
               | skates...
        
               | ezconnect wrote:
               | I thought it was not just about ice skating but the
               | question of why is ice very slippery is the hard part to
               | explain.
        
               | SkyBelow wrote:
               | >We have all the physics solved for bikes, it's a
               | complicated system but so is everything in motion. Hence
               | we assume a spherical cow for the sake of the problem.
               | 
               | This depends upon the question one is trying to answer.
               | If one is trying to create a bicycle that can self
               | balance, that involves considering different factors
               | compared to trying to determine why certain injuries
               | result in a person losing the ability to balance on a
               | bicycle while others do not. Is the focus the bicycle or
               | the human?
        
           | dllthomas wrote:
           | Do we know whether the mechanism was proposed before or after
           | observing the results? If they found the material because of
           | the theory, then I think it's very relevant.
        
             | gus_massa wrote:
             | Somewhat similar compounds are superconductors, so it's
             | possible that a wrong theory gave them a lucky hint to
             | modify an old superconductor into the new superconductor.
        
             | beowulfey wrote:
             | Someone who speaks Korean may have to go through the
             | original paper. It is LK-99 though; I wonder if they tried
             | 99 other combinations first!
        
               | stu255 wrote:
               | No,
               | 
               | Lee and Kim first discovered the material in 1999 and
               | have spent 20 years doing other things in between getting
               | help to figure out how to isolate LK-99 and reproduce the
               | correct grain structure.
               | 
               | They eventually got a world class physical chemist, Kwon.
               | 
               | There is now a huge bust up within the team, hence the
               | muddled race to publish and claim credit.
        
               | beowulfey wrote:
               | Ahh that makes sense. I was wondering what was going on
               | with the two papers and thought it might be something
               | like that too. Thanks for the extra details.
        
           | scarmig wrote:
           | Yeah. BCS was proposed a half century after the first
           | conventional superconductor was discovered, and even today we
           | don't have a convincing mechanism for "regular" high-Tc
           | superconductors. But if it superconducts, it superconducts,
           | and research into the how is useful but not a blocker to
           | using it.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | That depends. If it super conducts, but it isn't useful in
             | the real world, then we will be waiting for theory to -
             | hopefully - give us some insight into how to improve things
             | to useful.
             | 
             | This only can carry a small amount of current. I'm not sure
             | how to figure out what small means (numbers are given in
             | the article if you know how to use them!), but if the
             | losses using regular wire are less than the energy needed
             | to make this stuff then it isn't useful.
             | 
             | This is made out of lead. Even if it is useful for
             | transmission, the difficulty of working safely with lead in
             | a factory may mean it is impractical. Or it make leach lead
             | into the real world making it not safe to deploy.
             | 
             | There are probably other ways this can turn into a "it
             | works but isn't practical" thing that would force us to
             | wait for theory (or luck!) to point to something better.
             | What I wrote above is what I can think of in a couple
             | minutes. Only time will tell though, I hope it works out.
        
               | phyzome wrote:
               | Unfortunately, most companies seem to have little
               | compunction about exposing workers, consumers, or the
               | environment to toxic materials. The use of lead is not in
               | any way a blocker, for better or worse.
        
               | OfferFun6595 wrote:
               | It seems a 50/50 situation so long as the lead is able to
               | get the products most companies don't seem to bother a
               | lot about the risks of this exposure
        
               | pzber wrote:
               | 250 milliamps still sounds great for use in antennas.
        
               | reaperman wrote:
               | > If it super conducts, but it isn't useful in the real
               | world, then we will be waiting for theory to - hopefully
               | - give us some insight into how to improve things to
               | useful. This only can carry a small amount of current.
               | 
               | Thank you for this.
               | 
               | > This is made out of lead. Even if it is useful for
               | transmission, the difficulty of working safely with lead
               | in a factory may mean it is impractical.
               | 
               | Have you been to a hardware store lately? A huge amount
               | of pipe fittings for gas and non-potable water are made
               | from lead. Factories don't find it hard to work with
               | lead. It might be inadvisable but it's not hard.
               | 
               | We can argue about the "working safely" part, but in
               | terms of "does this make it impractical?" the answer
               | seems to be no under the current global regulatory
               | environment.
        
               | beepbopboopp wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | Nah. We have a reasonable understanding of fluids. It's
               | just that the two things we say as simple explanations
               | (the plane pushes air downwards causing an equal and
               | opposite reaction to push the plane up; faster flow on
               | top of the wing "sucks the plane upwards") are both only
               | partial truths.
               | 
               | Sometimes you get arguments between partisans for each of
               | these two simplified explanations, but really both are
               | bogus.
        
               | cooper_ganglia wrote:
               | In the Vsauce video "Do Chairs Exist?" (I highly
               | recommend it!), Michael talks about the concept of
               | vagueness and how defining boundaries can lead to
               | paradoxes. While it was primarily dealing with an
               | ontological perspective, the linguistic perspective of a
               | particular line has always stood out to me. Perhaps it
               | makes a bit more sense in context of the full 40-minute
               | video, but it is:
               | 
               | >"Composites are causally redundant. Believing in chairs
               | is like believing that, while yes, the burning gas from
               | my stove completely describes why the water in a pot
               | boils, there's ALSO a magical invisible substance called
               | boil-o that comes out of my stove that does the same
               | thing as the flame at the same time, and if there was no
               | boil-o, the flame would warm the water just the same, but
               | there IS boil-o... Chairs are no more real than boil-o.
               | Composites over-determine what happens in the world."
               | 
               | Like your example with lift and fluid dynamics, simple
               | explanations like "plane pushes air downwards" or "faster
               | flow sucks the plane upwards" might be insufficient, but
               | they're at least useful to the layman. It also reminds me
               | of how Richard Feynman answered the question, "What is
               | the feeling between 2 attracted magnets?" by explaining
               | that it would be impossible to give a complete answer.
               | Feynman pointed out that when you ask why two magnets
               | attract each other, there are different levels of
               | understanding depending on your background knowledge. For
               | someone with no knowledge of physics, the simple
               | explanation would be the existence of a magnetic force
               | causing the attraction. However, delving deeper into the
               | question raises complexities that can be challenging to
               | explain.
               | 
               | Feynman highlighted the difficulty of answering "why"
               | questions in general. Explaining magnetic attraction in
               | terms of something else that we are more familiar with,
               | like rubber bands, would be misleading and circular, as
               | it ultimately comes down to electrical and magnetic
               | forces. He acknowledged that some aspects of the natural
               | world may need to be accepted as fundamental elements
               | without a more profound explanation.
               | 
               | This is echoed in the Vsauce video, where defining
               | boundaries and attempting to explain everything can lead
               | to paradoxes and vagueness. The concept of "boil-o"
               | illustrates how composites, like chairs, can over-
               | determine what happens in the world and our own
               | perception, making their actual explanation even more
               | elusive.
        
               | didgeoridoo wrote:
               | I've never understood how this battle could possibly
               | persist, considering that _planes can fly upside-down_.
               | The fact that Bernoulli's Principle creates a low-
               | pressure zone on the top of the aerofoil just gives you
               | laminar flow at higher angles of attack.
               | 
               | It really isn't that mysterious, unless you insist that
               | only a single physical law is allowed to come into play.
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | > I've never understood how this battle could possibly
               | persist, considering that planes can fly upside-down.
               | 
               | That's orthogonal. Planes flying upside down still have
               | air flowing faster over the new "top" of the wing than
               | the bottom.
               | 
               | Though, a common misunderstanding is that air must be
               | taking the same "time" to go over the top and the bottom.
               | This is not true.
               | 
               | You can build a pretty good mental model of flight with
               | either simplified mechanism, but you end up
               | underestimating performance by a fair bit.
        
               | blagie wrote:
               | > You can build a pretty good mental model of flight with
               | either simplified mechanism, but you end up
               | underestimating performance by a fair bit.
               | 
               | I've never hear of a good mental model built on
               | Bernoulli's Principle. They are either:
               | 
               | - Wrong
               | 
               | - Give no intuition
               | 
               | The key question is /why/ air moves faster on one side,
               | and once you get away from the misconception of same
               | time, I've never heard an intuitive argument.
               | 
               | Redirecting air down:
               | 
               | - makes complete sense
               | 
               | - can be demonstrated by sticking your hand out the
               | window of a car
               | 
               | - works with flat airfoils (sails, kites, etc.), and
               | explains those well too
               | 
               | And the shape of the wing comes in from wanting the
               | leading edge parallel to incoming airflow, and the other
               | edge parallel to outgoing airflow. On a sail, I can
               | adjust the shape. On a steel wing, I can't much, so I
               | make a shape which works across different angles of
               | attack.
               | 
               | All of the other mechanisms, you can gradually work in
               | from there to get accurate models. Toss in air moving to
               | the low-pressure area, and having momentum, and you get
               | why helicopters are less efficient than planes, as well
               | as vortex shedding. It all builds up.
               | 
               | As a corollary, Bernoulli tells you where air moves
               | faster, but that follows from lift. Not the other way
               | around. At least in any model which fits the human brain.
        
               | ddalex wrote:
               | Why are you benchmarking models to human intuition? If
               | you apply the same reasoning to quantum mechanics you'll
               | have a bad time.
               | 
               | I'm sure models can accurately compute how much of the
               | wing lift comes from the suction effect on the top of the
               | wing versus the push on the bottom of the wing.
        
               | blagie wrote:
               | Because it's literally what I'm responding to:
               | 
               | "You can build a pretty good mental model of flight with
               | either simplified mechanism"
               | 
               | For computational models, neither of these are great
               | starting points. When I last looked, finite element
               | methods were where the action was.
               | 
               | And if you don't apply the same to quantum -- looking for
               | intuition -- you'll have a bad time. Quantum computing
               | algorithms came from human insight.
        
               | Linosaurus wrote:
               | > The key question is /why/ air moves faster on one side,
               | and once you get away from the misconception of same
               | time, I've never heard an intuitive argument.
               | 
               | Since the air follows a curved surface instead of
               | straight ahead, you could perhaps apply your intuition
               | for centrifugal force. Momentum sort of pulls the air
               | away from the surface.
               | 
               | I'm not even sure this explanation is wrong.
        
               | blagie wrote:
               | That's interesting.
               | 
               | Counterpoint: A wing with the opposite curvature would
               | work too, just much less efficiently. Your explanation
               | has an element of truth, but an element of untruth. It'd
               | take more analysis to tease them apart.
        
               | cornel_io wrote:
               | We 100% know why airplanes of every shape and size stay
               | aloft, and can calculate lift/drag extremely accurately
               | based on the geometry of the plane and the airflow, in
               | both steady state and much worse conditions. We have
               | great approximations for steady state that make perfect
               | sense and simplify the situation greatly and make it more
               | understandable without simulation, even if they gloss
               | over some details.
               | 
               | Where are you getting this terrible information that we
               | don't know how flight works? Have you ever talked to
               | literally anyone who has worked in aeronautical
               | engineering, or even studied the basics of fluid
               | dynamics?
        
               | VagabundoP wrote:
               | Yeah, but what about Bumblebees.
               | 
               | Yeah, didn't think so. ;)
        
               | MattPalmer1086 wrote:
               | They figured that one out too... Something to do with
               | vortices...
        
               | VagabundoP wrote:
               | Yeah I was being sarcastic. Forgot the /s. :(
        
               | littlestymaar wrote:
               | > This is made out of lead. Even if it is useful for
               | transmission, the difficulty of working safely with lead
               | in a factory may mean it is impractical. Or it make leach
               | lead into the real world making it not safe to deploy.
               | 
               | Lead is still routinely used in many applications today,
               | either in metallic form, from ICE car batteries, to
               | fishing or hunting gear, or as chemical compound in
               | different kinds of glass. And the same can be said about
               | other heavy metals like Cadmium or Mercury. Industries
               | also routinely work with much more nasty things than
               | lead, so it really doesn't sound like a show-stopper.
        
               | scythe wrote:
               | In particular, lead is still extremely common in
               | radiation shielding, possibly because the drop in demand
               | for other applications made it so cheap. Lead-lined
               | drywall is the default approach for setting up a
               | radiography, fluoroscopy or CT suite.
        
               | thayne wrote:
               | > possibly because the drop in demand for other
               | applications made it so cheap
               | 
               | Maybe a little bit. But I think it is more that it is a
               | material with heavy atomic nuclei and high density, and
               | thus effective at blocking radiation. And it is also
               | relatively cheap.
        
               | scythe wrote:
               | Lead is absurdly cheap. One dollar a pound! Cheaper than
               | much more common metals like aluminum or magnesium. So I
               | diagnose a low demand.
               | 
               | They used to talk about using barium cement but it just
               | can't compete, price-wise.
        
               | shirleyquirk wrote:
               | It may not come as a complete surprise that the economics
               | of metals are more complex.
               | 
               | Aluminium, was so expensive until the Hall/(that other
               | guy) process was developed, that it was used for
               | jewellery [1].
               | 
               | Even today it's expensive and difficult to reduce Al ore
               | to metal, which is a supply side problem.
               | 
               | [1]https://www.bellandbird.com/products/aluminum-bangle
        
               | rob74 wrote:
               | TIL! Aluminium is an extremely useful metal, but I would
               | never have thought it would be used for jewelry - I mean,
               | it's not enough for the metal to be expensive, it also
               | has to look and feel desirable, which soft and dull
               | Aluminium definitely doesn't. If you have ever held
               | Aluminium cutlery in your hand, it just feels cheap
               | compared to stainless steel (not to mention silver).
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Today it isn't used for jewelry. 200 years ago it was -
               | not so much to wear, but to show off that you were rich
               | enough to afford it. Only royalty could afford things
               | made out of aluminum.
        
               | stu255 wrote:
               | 75% of aluminium supply is from recycling aluminium
               | products.
               | 
               | The economy sort of has a "working capital" quantum of
               | aluminium which also grows steadily from aluminium
               | mining.
               | 
               | Lots of metals have very different and complex supply
               | structures and thus completely different $$$ / volume
               | curves for their supply.
               | 
               | Understanding the $$$ / volume curve of commodities is
               | not something that is commonly considered when people try
               | and predict the future. Mining a billion tonnes of
               | Aluminium from an asteroid for example and safely landing
               | it on Earth can never be profitable because the $$$ /
               | volume curve for Aluminium is $0.00 at billion tonne
               | volume.
        
               | rob74 wrote:
               | Now I'm curious where that recycled aluminium is coming
               | from? My guess would be mostly from airplanes and
               | beverage cans...
        
               | tonyarkles wrote:
               | Engine blocks too. If you go to a scrap yard though
               | you'll be pretty amazed at all of the stuff they've got
               | collected and sorted. Metal recycling (compared to, say,
               | electronics recycling or plastic recycling) has a very
               | clear economic model and financial incentives. If you're
               | demolishing a building or scrapping old machinery it will
               | cost significantly less to recycle the metal (because you
               | get paid decently by the pound) than to take it to a
               | landfill (where you pay by the pound instead).
        
               | et2o wrote:
               | I believe that most of the lead used today is a by-
               | product or co-product of mining other more valuable
               | metals like Zinc and silver. Lead is quite abundant in
               | the Earth's crust and found in easy to access deposits.
               | 
               | I think >80% of the current industrial use of lead is for
               | batteries. It's probably still in the top ten most mined
               | metals by dollar value and definitely by mass.
        
               | salty_biscuits wrote:
               | The mineral containing Zinc is called Sphalerite, which
               | is based on a greek etymology for "deciever" because it
               | commonly occurs with Galena (which has Lead and Silver)
               | and looks similar.
        
               | EdwardDiego wrote:
               | As a young fella, I carried a lot of that lead-lined
               | drywall, it's (obviously) really heavy, and expensive so
               | you got yelled at a lot if you damaged the edges,
               | couldn't just trim it off like normal drywall.
        
         | burtonator wrote:
         | I want ONE breakthrough like this in my lifetime. Something
         | completely game changing.
        
           | doctorwho42 wrote:
           | Live to see SPARC turn on, there are some pretty smart people
           | with models actually showing it breaking Q>3. Turns out the
           | hardest part about productive fusion is the sustained high
           | compression, and HTC tape really helps increase the
           | compression by a large amount. (See their 20 Tesla test at
           | the start of the pandemic)
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | kaashif wrote:
             | Meanwhile as someone who had to deal with writing code for
             | Solaris and using Sun's compiler, I think I've achieved my
             | goal by seeing my last SPARC turn _off_!
             | 
             | But yeah, nuclear fusion is cool.
        
             | Helmut10001 wrote:
             | Just want to mention for others: The first result for SPARC
             | on google is SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture),
             | whereas SPARC (tokamak) [1] is what relates to Q>3.
             | 
             | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPARC_(tokamak)
        
             | dgroshev wrote:
             | It would be great though if they stopped sponsoring the war
             | in Ukraine. Yes it's unfortunate that their main HTS tape
             | supplier is Russian, but pretending that it's not and just
             | ignoring the issue (or obscuring the supply chain through
             | that Japanese middleman) is pretty immoral.
        
             | stu255 wrote:
             | Neutron damage is the real filter for fusion.
        
         | arcadi7 wrote:
         | Short answer: talk about quantum wells in this context is
         | meaningless .
        
         | jpmattia wrote:
         | > _They propose that electron tunneling between these quantum
         | wells, which are between 3.7 and 6.5 Angstroms apart, is the
         | superconducting mechanism._
         | 
         | That is a very strange explanation. As someone who has done a
         | decent amount of solid-state physics work, I would expect the
         | explanation to involve a mechanism for pairing of electrons.
         | Mere tunneling between quantum wells has been a staple since
         | the "metamaterials" of the 80s and 90s.
         | 
         | That said, the measured curves do not lie, and I haven't kept
         | up with the field. So I'm all ears (and very much hoping the
         | superconducting revolution is upon us!)
        
           | dexwiz wrote:
           | Are you referring to a Cooper pair?
        
             | aqme28 wrote:
             | Yeah, that's the generally used explanation for
             | superconductivity
        
               | xeonmc wrote:
               | Would it be accurate to describe it as "lattice
               | peristalsis"?
        
               | aqme28 wrote:
               | That's sort of the proposed mechanism for Cooper pairs
               | forming, but I don't think I'd call Cooper pairs
               | themselves "lattice peristalsis"
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | 8bitsrule wrote:
       | >(SF readers will recall that one such material was a big plot
       | point in Larry Niven's Ringworld).
       | 
       | Even the one with (as he put it) 'the mistakes in it' !!
        
       | rohan_ wrote:
       | What do the "super forecasters" have to say about this? Was this
       | predicted on prediction markets? Was the assumption of this tech
       | existing already factored into prediction models?
        
         | hcks wrote:
         | Prediction markets say this will probably not replicate (and
         | imo even overestimate the probability of replication)
        
           | treme wrote:
           | link? interested in this wager
        
             | pallas_athena wrote:
             | https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-
             | superconductor...
        
               | shusaku wrote:
               | ~20% of a ground breaking discovery is actually a good
               | week in my view!
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Can we just send some current through it and see if it heats up?
        
       | jake_D wrote:
       | 1. In the video, they push the disc with a pen until it rolls
       | over. They repeat it multiple times. It it were superconductive
       | they could just position it in space without laying it on the
       | magnets first.
       | 
       | 2. The disc is not hovering.
       | 
       | 3. The disc is damaged; one edge is thicker/heavier than the
       | other. Thus causes the rolling. Notice that the heavier part
       | always stays on the magnet. It it were superconductive they would
       | be able use a uniform disc.
       | 
       | I call BS.
        
         | blablabla123 wrote:
         | With a "regular" magnetic field you cannot even do this, it
         | would roll over continuously. At least one point needs to be
         | actually fixed. Also if I remember correctly it's mentioned
         | that not the whole probe is superconductive but just part of
         | it.
        
           | jake_D wrote:
           | It would not roll over continuously as it's affected by
           | gravity as well. The heaviest part is at the bottom.
           | 
           | And if it's not completely superconductive, what stops it
           | from not being completely magnetic? For all we know, only the
           | thin part could be magnetic, being repelled from the magnet
           | below.
        
       | pbj1968 wrote:
       | Korean scientists are known for making a lot of bold and
       | unreproducible claims.
        
       | simmanian wrote:
       | I see a few comments saying this can also be used to "solve"
       | climate change, but I am trying to understand the how. Do people
       | mean that the world will have less carbon footprint overall
       | because everything will be much more efficient?
        
         | XorNot wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_magnetic_energ...
         | 
         | You build a big inductor, and because it's superconducting
         | current just goes round and round. At room temperature you have
         | no refrigeration losses, you can build more just as fast as you
         | can kick out superconductor. It would be 100% efficient, have 0
         | self-discharge, and enormous power capacity and infinite power
         | cycles.
        
         | NeoTar wrote:
         | I think it may be that electrical power could be generated in
         | places where (carbon free) energy production can be abundant
         | but consumption is low (e.g. Solar power in the Sahara desert)
         | and then transported with almost no losses to sites of high
         | energy consumption (e.g. the cities of North Africa and
         | Europe).
        
           | BizarroLand wrote:
           | North America could be powered with a small section of Nevada
           | being covered in Solar Panels, given a theoretical
           | transmission loss of only a few percent from one side of the
           | country to the next. Bolster that with windmills and
           | hydroelectric and that would be that for the next 30 years.
           | 
           | Electricity would be cheaper and more plentiful than water in
           | many areas.
        
         | AlexAndScripts wrote:
         | A version with higher current would allow us to link the
         | world's electricity networks with zero energy loss. That would
         | allow us to build out solar panels in a ring around the
         | equator, and it would be fine that it was night in some places
         | - because we could get power from the panels on the other side
         | of the world.
        
         | pshc wrote:
         | Even if we replaced all fossil fuels overnight we still
         | wouldn't have "solved" climate change--the damage we have done
         | is locked in for the long term. We need active mitigation to
         | restore Arctic ice, de-acidify the oceans, save coral reefs,
         | bring back old weather patterns, etc.
        
       | t3estabc wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | ck2 wrote:
       | Oooh fresh Derek Lowe, awesome
       | 
       | Enough of all the UFO nonsense, this is what matters for the
       | future
       | 
       | > _If these data reproduce, the superconductivity of this
       | material seems beyond doubt._
       | 
       | > _Another welcome feature is that their procedure for preparing
       | LK-99 seems quite straightforward. You can bet that furnaces in
       | solid-state materials labs around the world have been cooking
       | yesterday and today to try to reproduce its synthesis and the
       | properties, and we should be hearing about the results of these
       | experiments very soon._
        
       | Helmut10001 wrote:
       | For those like me that know nothing of superconductivity, I found
       | this [1] entry quite helpful to assess the impact, particularly:
       | 
       | > At atmospheric pressure the temperature record is still held by
       | cuprates, which have demonstrated superconductivity at
       | temperatures as high as 138 K (-135 degC).
       | 
       | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Room-
       | temperature_superconducto...
        
       | curiousObject wrote:
       | While we're waiting for experimenters to reproduce this, it's
       | worth comparing this amazing announcement to the Cold Fusion
       | affair of 1989[1]
       | 
       | It's notable that the first publications about attempts to
       | reproduce the Cold Fusion experiment all reported _positive_
       | results.
       | 
       | It's probably because experimenters who got negative results
       | decided they might have done something wrong so they kept trying,
       | and delayed, and they did not publish until later.
       | 
       | Those early reports of positive results were largely retracted
       | within a few weeks.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion
        
         | selestify wrote:
         | Why did those early experimenters report positive reports? Did
         | they inadvertently do something wrong themselves that looked
         | like cold fusion?
        
           | wolfram74 wrote:
           | Small effect sizes make it easy to confuse noise for positive
           | results. Throw into it the very strong desire to see the
           | thing work, and, well, even the best of us are only human.
        
           | curiousObject wrote:
           | > Did they inadvertently do something wrong themselves that
           | looked like cold fusion?
           | 
           | Yes, probably
           | 
           | This blog talks about some of the many pitfalls that could
           | mislead researchers:
           | https://coldfusionblog.net/2019/03/13/the-case-against-
           | cold-...
           | 
           | Some of the errors are very subtle. It's not surprising that
           | mistakes were made
        
             | segfaultbuserr wrote:
             | It was a great blog, it was a lot of fun when I found it.
             | 
             | The summary was basically that, designing a reliable
             | calorimetry equipment and experiment suitable for use in
             | Fleischmann-like experiments is just uniquely challenging,
             | it remained an unsolved problem even decades after the
             | initial fiasco. The whole experiment setup is inherently
             | error-prone. I found it was pretty interesting.
             | 
             | One researcher P.J. King who recently attempted a
             | replication [1] commented online [2] that:
             | 
             | > _We observed the claimed heat effect, both in magnitude
             | and duration, in our parallel __control__ cells. This
             | indicates a calibration error in the apparatus. One little
             | known fact about these electro-chemical cell experiments is
             | that they are run for a week or more before the effect is
             | observed. Typically, calibration is conducted over a few
             | hours and is done both before an experimental run and
             | intermittently during it, to re-check thermal stability._
             | 
             | > _We submit that this approach to calibration is
             | inadequate for establishing a calorimeter's propensity for
             | heat artifacts. Stability over time periods longer than the
             | experiment should be demonstrated in order to minimize the
             | possibility of misinterpreting the fluctuations that we
             | observed as "excess heat" events._
             | 
             | > _Consequently, we contend that all claims of anomalous
             | heat in LENR experiments using electro-chemical cells that
             | do not exhibit thermal stability on a time period longer
             | than the time duration of the experiment itself must be
             | thrown out. As the majority of research over the past 30
             | years has not demonstrated this kind of calibration
             | stability, that eliminates most of the effort in this
             | field. You can read more about our work on the ReResearch
             | LLC website._
             | 
             | > _That is not to say that we know everything about hot
             | fusion in the solid state or how quantum mechanical
             | interactions might impact fusion reactivity. There is much
             | still to be discovered. But these electro-chemical LENR
             | heat experiments are noise, not signal._
             | 
             | [1] Guffey, Mason J., Yang Tang, and P.J. King. 2016.
             | "Attempted Replication of Excess Heat in the Letts Dual-
             | Laser Experiment." Journal of Condensed Matter Nuclear
             | Science 20 (1): 1-28.
             | 
             | [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbzcYQVrTxQ&lc=UgzFM3zS
             | 0QyP5...
        
           | mcguire wrote:
           | IIRC, there were two groups of groups working on it (the
           | process was simple enough that a description from the press
           | conference was enough to get started):
           | 
           | * people looking for fusion neutrons, who did not have much
           | experience with the finickiness of neutron detectors and who
           | reported seeing them when they were getting experimental
           | errors, and
           | 
           | * people looking for excess heat, which was simply inherently
           | difficult to measure accurately.
           | 
           | On the other hand, there wasn't a publication delay for the
           | negative reports; within a week the groups started talking to
           | each other and realized they weren't unique in not finding
           | anything.
        
             | mcguire wrote:
             | Gary Taubes's _Bad Science: The Short Life and Weird Times
             | of Cold Fusion_ is pretty good.
        
         | kvetching wrote:
         | The guys at Falcon Space said they were working on trying to
         | reproduce it today - they said they have everything they need.
         | This is their channel https://www.youtube.com/@FalconSpace
         | where you can learn more about them
        
           | zeronullempty wrote:
           | [flagged]
        
         | m463 wrote:
         | I remember being interested enough to suspend disbelief for a
         | little while with rossi's e-cat:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer
         | 
         | nothing happened, of course, but the idea of an elegant energy
         | source was so seductive.
        
           | gus_massa wrote:
           | The experiments with the e-cat were measuring temperatures
           | and estimating heat flow of the hot air flowing arround the
           | device. That's too difficult to do acurately.
           | 
           | If you see a report of a groundbreaking experiment that only
           | measure the heat of the air, you can safely press the "meh"
           | button.
        
         | dtgriscom wrote:
         | I miss Cold Fusion. What a wonderful idea. It's a shame reality
         | didn't cooperate.
        
         | perihelions wrote:
         | Another example of this was Millikan's determination of the
         | fundamental electric charge (of one electron). The first,
         | famous experiment had a major error; and subsequently everyone
         | who independently replicated the experiment, for two decades,
         | came up with the same error, in the same direction. The people
         | whose experiments got the _correct_ value probably self-
         | selected themselves out of publishing it.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_drop_experiment?useskin=ve...
         | ( _" Millikan's experiment as an example of psychological
         | effects in scientific methodology"_)
        
           | IX-103 wrote:
           | It is interesting to note that while the error was in the
           | same direction, the magnitude of the error decreased in
           | subsequent studies. No one expects to get exactly the same
           | result, so there was room for variation towards the true
           | result.
        
           | Analemma_ wrote:
           | Room-temperature superconductors have so many urgent
           | commercial uses that if this fake, I doubt the error will
           | persist for that long. There's too much at stake.
        
             | cryptonector wrote:
             | Boiling-water-temperature superconductors. Pinch me, it
             | feels like a dream.
        
             | mrguyorama wrote:
             | There's also probably a hundred labs skipping over
             | replication completely to try and beat someone else out on
             | a random permutation of these materials and methods and
             | hoping to get lucky.
        
               | gus_massa wrote:
               | Yes, "replication" in this experiments usualy means
               | foloeing the oficial recipe and many small variants.
               | 
               | Publishing an exact reproduction is difficult, but a new
               | record a few degrees hotter is easy. (And even another
               | variant with a lower temperature and more tolerance for
               | current or magnetic field can be published with the right
               | text.)
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | > but a new record a few degrees hotter is easy
               | 
               | Assuming one exists. Assuming it is real.
        
               | gus_massa wrote:
               | Yep. Easier to publish, assuming it exist and you can
               | find it.
        
               | lolc wrote:
               | I can't see why they'd skip replication given the
               | uncertain status of the original process. They'd try to
               | replicate as closely as possible, confirm they have a
               | superconducting material, then they'd branch out from
               | their established process. Starting from a variation
               | means they don't know whether it doesn't work because of
               | the variation or because it doesn't work at all.
        
               | curiousObject wrote:
               | That's not unreasonable, but the high-risk, high-reward
               | approach would be to let researchers elsewhere do basic
               | verification, while you try to leap a step ahead of them
               | by going directly to derivative variations.
               | 
               | Abandon the work if nobody can replicate LK-99 within a
               | few weeks and you haven't really lost out badly.
        
               | stu255 wrote:
               | I hear some very clever labs can do more than one thing
               | at a time.
        
       | fbarred wrote:
       | If this is real, what about this discovery that made it happen
       | now?
       | 
       | Is it a case that some technology is now available that unlocked
       | this? Or is this trying something and seeing if it works?
       | 
       | Could this discovery have been made 10-20 years ago?
        
         | jeepers6 wrote:
         | COVID.
        
         | terafo wrote:
         | It could've been made not only 10-20 years ago, but, probably
         | even 100-200 years ago(sure about 20th century, not really sure
         | about 19th).
        
       | RyanAdamas wrote:
       | What if the team itself did create LK-99 that is a
       | superconductor, but they aren't able to reproduce it and only
       | have the sample left that works. Hence, they aren't able to make
       | more of it to prove their success, but rather decided to release
       | the paper and method so that others can try to reproduce it.
       | Given the amount of interest, they could put hundreds of labs to
       | work trying to recreate what they themselves can't, hoping
       | someone will find what they found and have an actual process for
       | doing so?
       | 
       | Is that even possible?
        
         | PawgerZ wrote:
         | I have never worked with super conductors, but I did talk with
         | people who have and read every comment on hacker news. From
         | what I can gather, people already make YBCO superconductors in
         | their garage, and this doesn't seem much different in
         | difficulty. Many people have said that it's simple enough that
         | they expect youtube tutorials on how to make it in a week or
         | two.
        
         | MVissers wrote:
         | The most likely explanation based on the authors in the two
         | articles is infighting, where one researcher decides to publish
         | an uncomplete manuscript with his name as the third author.
         | 
         | He's omitted from the second author.
         | 
         | I do believe they believe they have something nobel-prize
         | worthy.
         | 
         | They offered to help with replication in other labs, which is a
         | good sign.
         | 
         | Could still be measurement error, we just need to wait until it
         | gets replicated.
        
           | mromanuk wrote:
           | How long does it take to get a replication? I would love to
           | follow up this kind of news, directly from a the researchers
           | doing the work. Is there anyone to follow on twitter to keep
           | posted on this?
        
             | valine wrote:
             | I believe it needs a minimum of 48 hours in the furnace. If
             | labs started right away after the paper hit Arxiv we should
             | be hearing about results soon.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | eig wrote:
       | This video (https://sciencecast.org/casts/suc384jly50n) showing
       | the Meissner effect should be the easiest to replicate: just send
       | a sample to another lab and put it over a large magnet.
       | 
       | As far as I know, the only explanations for this occurring is
       | room temp superconductivity, or a strong diamagnetism (which
       | would also be very cool to see)!
        
         | ortusdux wrote:
         | That video reminds me of the way pyrolytic graphite floats on
         | strong magnets.
         | 
         | https://scitoys.com/scitoys/scitoys/magnets/pyrolytic_graphi...
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/Wk3seHNmNs8
        
           | zbobet2012 wrote:
           | As far as I am aware you need multiple magnets to make this
           | happen, just one will cause it to "fall" off. In the video
           | it's just one magnet, and it doesn't try to "slide" away when
           | it's moved past the edge of the magnet. That's a strong
           | indicator of quantum locking.
           | 
           | I am not an expert in this field though.
           | 
           | https://www.imagesco.com/magnetism/graphite-levitation-
           | kit.h...
           | 
           | https://scitoys.com/scitoys/scitoys/magnets/pyrolytic_graphi.
           | ..
        
             | SiempreViernes wrote:
             | They don't show the actual field of the big metallic
             | cylinder, so you can't rule out a situation as shown at the
             | start of this video: https://youtu.be/D-tW8_SRW3g where two
             | identically looking objects are revealed to have very
             | different magnetic fields.
             | 
             | Whether it makes sense to say the multipole magnet is
             | "multiple magnets" is a philosophical debate in itself.
        
           | littlestymaar wrote:
           | The common point being that it levitates, at room temperature
           | (so no cryogenic fumes on the video), but that's exactly what
           | you'd expect from a room-temperature SC... The big difference
           | between your graphite video and the one from yesterday is
           | that the later doesn't move, whereas the former never rests.
        
             | XorNot wrote:
             | The problem with the video we see is that the sample never
             | actually levitates - one side is touching the magnet. So a
             | regular diamagnetic material, with enough weight on one
             | side, would display the same effect.
             | 
             | In this video shortly after this moment you see something
             | _very_ similar looking with pyrolytic carbon:
             | https://youtu.be/VC3r9-OaWes?t=133
        
           | eig wrote:
           | Yep, that's strong diamagnetism.
        
           | scythe wrote:
           | It's true that pyrolytic graphite does this, but it's also
           | worth noting that pyrolytic graphite is one of a _very few_
           | materials that has such a strong conventional diamagnetism:
           | the list includes pyrolytic graphite and metallic bismuth and
           | ends there. I have actually searched the literature for such
           | materials on a few occasions simply because they seem like
           | they would make a fun decoration, and PG (and  "highly
           | oriented" PG) is pretty much the only one (bismuth is too
           | dense).
        
             | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
             | Definitely. Discovering another material besides pyrolytic
             | graphite that exhibits strong enough diamagnetism to
             | levitate wouldn't get your name in the history books like
             | room-temperature superconductivity would, but it would
             | already be a major career-making discovery, with at least
             | enough commercial value to launch a niche company. It would
             | be very strange to tarnish your reputation with fraudulent,
             | easily-refuted claims of superconductivity if you've
             | already achieved such a breakthrough.
        
         | soligern wrote:
         | I don't know enough about this but shouldn't the entire
         | superconductor be floating above the magnet? Why is one part
         | still attached (or maybe attracted) to the magnet?
        
           | NegativeLatency wrote:
           | Contamination/impurities or something else in it that's not
           | superconducting?
        
             | soligern wrote:
             | A strange exposition video then, I would try to remove the
             | part that wasn't superconducting (the part touching the
             | magnet) before I released this. A completely floating piece
             | of this superconductor would remove literally all doubt.
        
               | xeonmc wrote:
               | You say to do WHAT to the best piece of sample they
               | synthesized?
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | Scope of the claim. This is world changing. Shoot the
               | first video, then get the dremel/pliers and cut that
               | large bit off. It would be worth it, because if this
               | works at all, then it's vital to prove it. We'd be having
               | a very different discussion if that small piece was
               | umabiguously floating and remaining locked in place.
        
               | yreg wrote:
               | > it's vital to prove it [asap]
               | 
               | Is it? What do they care if it takes other labs a week to
               | reproduce?
        
               | Filligree wrote:
               | But you don't understand, people are being skeptics on
               | the internet.
        
           | petsfed wrote:
           | Based on what I'm hearing, it sounds like they weren't able
           | to produce a macroscopic ingot of the stuff, so it seems
           | likely _to me_ that the superconducting part is up at the end
           | there. However, without further explanation, I 'm disinclined
           | to take that video (fantastic as it seems) to be conclusive
           | evidence of anything.
        
             | rsfern wrote:
             | The original preprint mentions bulk samples, but I'm not
             | sure what size they were. I would guess at least a few
             | millimeters scale, but really bulk just mostly means "not a
             | thin film"
        
               | petsfed wrote:
               | As an undergrad I helped with research on quasars, where
               | reasonable precision was solar mass orders of magnitude
               | and tens of parsecs, and the periodic table was Hydrogen,
               | Helium, and "metals". Then I switched to condensed matter
               | physics for grad school, where "bulk" meant "a scale
               | visible to the naked eye under very good conditions".
               | 
               | The dichotomy makes me laugh.
        
       | t3estabc wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | JacobAldridge wrote:
       | I'm reminded of the paper, just over 10 years ago, that reporting
       | measuring neutrinos travelling faster than the speed of light.
       | 
       | When published, the authors made it clear: this is probably
       | wrong, but we can't see where we made a mistake ... so what if
       | we're right and just upended relativity theory?
       | 
       | That was turned out to be a measuring error [1]. This one may be
       | the same, though the lead authors publishing two versions of the
       | paper - one with only 3 names, ostensibly because the Nobel Prize
       | can only be awarded to a maximum of 3 people - suggests less
       | modesty and vulnerability on their behalf.
       | 
       | I hope they're right though!
       | 
       | [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2012.10099
        
         | willis936 wrote:
         | I don't see the similarities. This upends zero theories. I see
         | similarities in the long line of "STP superconductors for real
         | this time!" claims, but not findings that contradict current
         | physical models.
        
           | bhaak wrote:
           | Isn't it that this would upend zero theories because we don't
           | have any that satisfyingly explains superconductivity?
        
         | lIl-IIIl wrote:
         | I thought of that too, but the difference is that faster than
         | light travel is impossible according to our understanding of
         | physics, but nothing says that room temperature superconductors
         | are impossible.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | thepaulthomson wrote:
       | Can't wait to be flying my car to work
        
       | ryzvonusef wrote:
       | https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684622263339884544
       | > I have bad news. I am growing increasingly convinced that LK-99
       | is simply diamagnetic, rather than superconducting. It lines up
       | well with existing evidence (susceptibility, levitation, lack of
       | heat capacity singularity, etc.)
       | 
       | https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684622265403465728
       | > Discovering a new diamagnet is cool, but .... obviously way
       | less cool
       | 
       | ____
       | 
       | reminded me of this asianometry video on a similar much hyped
       | korean breakthrough in biology, and the sad aftereffects of it
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0MMtKMTjoU
        
       | nimish wrote:
       | Given the ingredients have known semiconducting properties one
       | would think they'd run it through the wringer to expel any doubts
       | as to its superconducting properties. 2DEGs and such at room temp
       | are common, GaN transistors do it and they have well known
       | temperature dependent resistance characteristics.
       | 
       | The semiconductor characterization people at any fab could really
       | get to the bottom of this.
        
       | 1-6 wrote:
       | Is it Lee or Kim? LeeKim-99
        
         | jeepers6 wrote:
         | They were working on this as far back as 1999.
        
       | iceflinger wrote:
       | "this stuff is claimed to superconduct all the way up to room
       | temperature and indeed up past the boiling point of water. Its
       | critical temperature is said to be 127C"
       | 
       | Would this have implications about possible efficient methods of
       | converting heat back into electricity? Or even just more ways of
       | harnessing heat energy in general. I'm imagining heat pumps built
       | with superconductors could be a critical part of mitigating
       | climate change, but I'm far from a scientist and barely
       | understand the physics here.
        
         | ayakang31415 wrote:
         | No, it just means that the material conducts electricity
         | without losing almost any energy through heat at that critical
         | temperature. Heat itself is a process of energy transfer (heat
         | itself is not energy which many people fail to recognize if
         | they haven't studied thermodynamics thoroughly).
        
       | etiam wrote:
       | Thoroughly upvoted and discussed "The first room-temperature
       | ambient-pressure superconductor?"
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36864624 has barely fallen
       | to second page yet, but as the topic is of exceptional interest,
       | and under development, and Lowe's commentary is usually welcome
       | and well received on HN, maybe some duplication can be justified
       | in this case?
        
         | yreg wrote:
         | I would welcome a new thread to be honest since it's very
         | difficult to find the new comments in this one.
        
       | orblivion wrote:
       | So what kinds of cool stuff could be built with a room
       | temperature superconductor? Better levitating trains?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | ianmcgowan wrote:
         | From the article,
         | 
         | "Who knows what could come out of that? Robust high-current-
         | density room-temperature superconductors are right out of
         | science fiction (SF readers will recall that one such material
         | was a big plot point in Larry Niven's Ringworld). Electrical
         | generation and transmission, antennas, power storage, magnet
         | applications (including things like fusion power plants),
         | electric motors and basically everything that runs on
         | electricity would be affected. We could stop throwing away so
         | much generated power on heating up the wires that deliver it,
         | for starters."
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | swader999 wrote:
         | Nuclear fusion much easier, quantum computing, lossless
         | electricity transmission, insane batteries. Dirt cheap MRIs,
         | Basically welcome to the Jetsons. Much easier to mitigate
         | climate change to the point where we can just deal with it.
        
           | krastanov wrote:
           | Room temperature superconductivity does not help with quantum
           | computing. The transmons or atoms or ions need to be cold so
           | that they do not get "flipped", not because of the need for
           | superconductors.
        
             | bick_nyers wrote:
             | Do quantum computers not have a need for strong magnetic
             | fields? Or is the magnetic field requirement weak enough
             | that it can be serviced by non-superconducting magnets?
        
               | sudosysgen wrote:
               | The computer needs to be super cold anyways so you might
               | as well use a regular superconductor.
        
           | NotYourLawyer wrote:
           | This would only solve one of the more minor problems with
           | fusion. And what would it do for batteries?
        
             | willis936 wrote:
             | The challenge of fusion is a collection minor problems that
             | add up to machines that are unviable for our current level
             | of industrial output. Eliminating one of the three key
             | plant systems (cryo, vacuum, and heating) is not a
             | molehill, especially when it is the second highest user of
             | power (after heating).
        
             | p_l wrote:
             | Battery grid storage would be dead in the water, as we
             | already use Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage for
             | grid stability and ultra-clean power in certain industries
             | - except suddenly a huge chunk of issues involved in making
             | large power SMES will disappear.
             | 
             | They won't replace portable batteries soon, but room
             | temperature superconducting will greatly increase
             | efficiency in all areas of electricity, including higher
             | power motors (the efficiency gains are good enough that
             | superconducting motors and generators have been attempted
             | despite needing supercooling). Also, a simple SMES could
             | easily buffer future BEV truck charging station despite
             | projected 1MW connection per charging truck.
        
             | m463 wrote:
             | I wonder if it would really mean a different sort of
             | battery maybe like a super capacitor that doesn't
             | discharge.
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | CyberDildonics wrote:
           | _Nuclear fusion, quantum computing, insane batteries_
           | 
           | Why do you think any of these are true?
        
           | simmanian wrote:
           | How would this make climate change easier to deal with?
           | Because it would make everything that much more efficient?
           | I'm honestly trying to understand the implications.
        
             | swader999 wrote:
             | Batteries and nuclear fusion. With easy energy, you can
             | pull the carbon out of the air.
        
             | BWStearns wrote:
             | Long distance power transmission suffers losses from
             | resistance. Superconductors don't suffer losses. With
             | superconductors you could stick a giant wind farm in the
             | ocean and cover the Sahara in solar panels. Run
             | distribution lines from there to everywhere else and pretty
             | much call it a day on the planet's power needs. (lots of
             | things glossed over, not the least of which are social and
             | geopolitical but you get the idea)
        
             | nate_martin wrote:
             | It takes energy to remove carbon from the atmosphere. With
             | abundant energy from fusion you could just remove the
             | carbon added by humans.
        
         | hatsunearu wrote:
         | The last line of the paper says this discovery will lead to a
         | new age of humanity, and they aren't joking.
        
           | willis936 wrote:
           | Lead is used in many places. You should avoid checking what
           | battery is in your ICE vehicle.
           | 
           | What matters is how lead is handled. With hope, mankind will
           | never lead a generation the way burning millions of gallons
           | of leaded fuel did. Certainly no use of a lead superconductor
           | could hope to accomplish that level of damage.
        
             | kube-system wrote:
             | This is a leading example of how homographs can lead us
             | astray.
        
             | hatsunearu wrote:
             | I think you replied to the wrong parent?
        
             | tamimio wrote:
             | ??
        
       | ChuckMcM wrote:
       | Raise your hand if you contacted Aldritch about the two pre-
       | cursor materials :-)
       | 
       | This is an excellent summary and like Derek I have high hopes
       | (but low expectations) that by the end of this week we'll see
       | some tentative confirmation. This stuff isn't particularly hard
       | (or expensive!) to make so that should really make for
       | interesting news and some very fun products if it is proven out.
        
         | hcks wrote:
         | Don't waste your time, it'll be disproved 10 times before your
         | reactants get delivered.
        
           | kstrauser wrote:
           | By whom, if no one orders the ingredients to run the tests?
        
             | hatsunearu wrote:
             | Presumably there are some labs with a very large spice
             | cabinet.
        
         | mitthrowaway2 wrote:
         | Do handle these carefully, powdered lead oxide is no joke!
        
         | techdragon wrote:
         | Good luck with your samples and in the very least it should be
         | good fun to play a small part in the replication of results. If
         | documented well enough you might even wind up in a meta-study
         | some day.
         | 
         | The bigger the impact the more of a splash it will make in
         | _social contexts_ consequently we see a lot of blatant and
         | cautious naysayers with various explanations and individual
         | explanations for the logic of their refutation.
         | 
         | But it's If it's shocking enough, groundbreaking enough, anyone
         | with the expertise to try will do so either to see if it's
         | right instead of waiting around for someone else to do it and
         | write it up and publish it, or to prove that it's not and for
         | something this big at least, give BobbyBrocolli a new possible
         | video topic to consider.
        
       | seventytwo wrote:
       | Fingers crossed!
        
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