[HN Gopher] The Secret Economics of the Birkin Bag
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       The Secret Economics of the Birkin Bag
        
       Author : gsatic
       Score  : 55 points
       Date   : 2023-07-23 06:20 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (businessday.ng)
 (TXT) w3m dump (businessday.ng)
        
       | GoofballJones wrote:
       | I've heard of them, but never investigated anything about them. I
       | just now looked them up and new ones are selling for like
       | $20,000.
       | 
       | I don't think I'm their target consumer.
        
       | kyleblarson wrote:
       | I'll stick with my Crocs, 10 year old hiking backpacks and Timex
       | iron man watch that I got when I was about 12.
        
       | tivert wrote:
       | https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/04/magazine/celine-chanel-gu...
       | (Inside the Delirious Rise of 'Superfake' Handbags)
       | 
       | > This led me to a Reddit community of replica enthusiasts, who
       | traded details about "trusted sellers" capable of delivering a
       | Chanel 2.55 or Loewe Puzzle or Hermes Birkin that promised to be
       | indistinguishable from the original, and priced at a mere 5
       | percent or so of the M.S.R.P.
       | 
       | > ...
       | 
       | > What was once a sly novelty has bloomed into a gigantic market.
       | In 2016, a Virginia woman was sentenced for buying $400,000 worth
       | of designer purses from department stores, returning high-quality
       | knockoffs and reselling the real bags for profit; the stores went
       | years without catching on.
        
         | mighmi wrote:
         | > This led me to a Reddit community of replica enthusiasts, who
         | traded details about "trusted sellers" capable of delivering a
         | Chanel 2.55 or Loewe Puzzle or Hermes Birkin that promised to
         | be indistinguishable from the original, and priced at a mere 5
         | percent or so of the M.S.R.P.
         | 
         | There are amazing counterfeit watched to be had. For better or
         | worse, suits don't work like this. Instead, you find a Tailor
         | in Vietnam or Colombia, who will make you something great for
         | $2-300. But the best materials/fabrics aren't accessible
         | without paying thousands. That said, these days, I rarely have
         | the opportunity to wear suits.
        
           | Zircom wrote:
           | Do you have to travel to those countries to get fitted or you
           | just send them the measurements and have it shipped to you?
        
             | whynotmaybe wrote:
             | My tailor from Thailand flew in to Brussels and I met him
             | at an hotel where he took my measurements.
             | 
             | A few weeks later, the suits were shipped directly to my
             | home.
             | 
             | He also had several customers in Germany and did the same
             | for them.
        
             | marssaxman wrote:
             | If you live near Seattle, you can have a company called
             | Ruby Threads manage the process - they make twice-yearly
             | trips to Vietnam, returning with made-to-measure custom
             | suits:
             | 
             | https://www.rubysuits.com/
        
             | borroka wrote:
             | I am not the above poster, but I have a semi-reliable
             | tailor in Southeast Asia. They took my measurements a few
             | years ago when I visited their country, and I send them
             | size updates when needed. They have excellent fabrics in a
             | variety of colors and weights.
             | 
             | I have seen that there are pros and cons (with this
             | particular tailor, others shops can be more professional,
             | but they are also more expensive, sometimes much more).
             | 
             | Pros: hard-to-beat price ($35 for a classic or sporty
             | cotton shirt, $60 for wool/cashmere/denim/cotton pants,
             | $150 for a wool or cotton sport coat, $200-250 for a suit)
             | for something that is somewhere between bespoke and made-
             | to-measure, opportunity for low-cost explorations (let's
             | say I have a few unique garments), playing with details and
             | fabrics.
             | 
             | Cons: communication is often challenging (most speak broken
             | English, which demands a good deal of patience and
             | intuition), they are not very detail-oriented (some of the
             | uniqueness of the garments were not sought by me, e.g.,
             | e.g., bizarre button placement or pocket shape, etc.),
             | quality of garments can vary unpredictably, and they are
             | always asking for more business, which can be tiring.
             | 
             | The other option is to buy on eBay, as I have been doing
             | for some time. Although most pieces are priced correctly,
             | some are much cheaper than they should be. I have bought
             | fantastic, semi-current suits (say, suits that are 10 years
             | old, but with classic features, meaning they are relatively
             | "timeless") that have been used sporadically (the color of
             | the ink on the label is a tell, some have been used once or
             | twice) for $150 when new they would have cost 10 or 15
             | times that.
             | 
             | But I get much more satisfaction when I order clothes from
             | my tailor. Those are pieces "designed by me", for me.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | When I used to sometimes get suits etc. made, I went into a
             | tailor on trips to Asia. Presumably, assuming your
             | measurements didn't change much, you could reorder things
             | and get them pretty close though I never did that.
             | 
             | Just sending your measurements will essentially give you
             | something semi-custom. When a tailor takes your
             | measurements, you usually go back and they do a little bit
             | of nipping and tucking of a suit before you take it away.
             | Other articles of clothing like coats require less
             | precision.
        
         | ForestCritter wrote:
         | Being both a craftsman and having worked luxury handbag retail,
         | I can tell you right now that I could spot the difference in
         | construction quality and after a couple months of wear, the
         | disatrous difference. I also highly doubt that the 800$ price
         | tag reflects the overhead , advertising, packaging, retail
         | store markup required to run the store and the salary +
         | commission it takes a dedicated salesperson to go through the
         | special order process it takes to sell one of these bags.
        
       | er4hn wrote:
       | The part about the margins always annoys me. They are comparing
       | final cost to cost of goods + labor to manufacture, but there are
       | other components than that. There is the cost of stores, of store
       | staff to sell you the bag. The executives salaries who do not
       | make the bags themselves.
       | 
       | This comes up in tech as well. The cost to manufacture, say, a
       | CPU, is very low compared to how it is sold. But you are paying
       | for a lot of R&D that guided the CPU design. How are these things
       | factored in? I'm sure that there is a word for this factoring in
       | of R&D, mgmt, and other costs, but I don't know what the term is
       | to start learning more. Does anyone else know?
        
         | ke88y wrote:
         | The word _amortize_ --  "gradually write off the initial cost
         | of (an asset) over a period" -- denotes exactly this concept in
         | the English language. As in, "the market price of a CPU
         | includes amortization of the initial R&D effort over the
         | lifetime sales of the CPU".
         | 
         | The problem is that it means something more specific to
         | accountants and lawyers in practice.
        
       | psd1 wrote:
       | > Almost everyone can identify the provenance of Gucci's double-G
       | spangled Dionysus shoulder bag; only initiates can spot a Birkin.
       | 
       | I bet some large majority can identify an Hermes bag as an
       | expensive bag, logo or no.
       | 
       | And perhaps more importantly, there are circles on which an
       | obvious G, LV or C is infra dig. It is a sign of a deprived
       | childhood.
       | 
       | So yes, the bag is absolutely about conspicuous consumption.
        
         | hospitalJail wrote:
         | I hope one day people are free from the grip of Veblen goods.
         | Its probably impossible due to genetic causes, like a demand
         | for status.
         | 
         | However we may be able to educate people that 'you cannot buy
         | class'.
         | 
         | Its interesting how many lower income people have iphones,
         | Jordans, Teslas/Mustangs/Corvettes but as soon as you hit the
         | upper-middle class, these disappear in favor of the more
         | practical/functional items of similar prices. Not to say that
         | some in the upper-middle class don't waste money on a
         | Ferrari/Lambo, but I imagine its the same thing, 0.1ers don't
         | buy those products.
        
           | ypzhang2 wrote:
           | I doubt there is truth to the common trope that "REAL rich
           | people don't buy X/Y/Z". Its a No True Scotsman argument. In
           | actuality, Kelly / Birkin are appreciated by a wide spectrum
           | of people, even folks who are "0.1%ers". Just like "0.1%ers"
           | buy luxury cars. Hell, Bill Gates (a "0.1%er" squarely)
           | basically lobbied for a law just so he can import a Porsche
           | 959. Jerry Seinfeld has a huge car collection. If you want to
           | argue "old money", Prince Harry has a Jaguar E-type and a
           | F-Type. Luxury goods are enjoyed by the leisure class,
           | period, because they have disposable income and like nice
           | things.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | gamblor956 wrote:
           | Upper-middle class people can't afford Ferraris or
           | Lamborghinis. If you can afford either of those cars, which
           | _start_ in the six-figures, you are not middle class, you are
           | very definitely upper class. You can 't even get on the list
           | to _buy_ one of these cars without a bank account balance in
           | the 7 figures.
           | 
           | Also...every major wireless company offers iPhones free or
           | heavily discounted. iPhones aren't the luxury goods anymore,
           | they're the cheap alternative.
        
             | seabass-labrax wrote:
             | From vodafone.co.uk:                 Samsung Galaxy A14 5G
             | - PS15 per month + PS9  upfront
             | PS563 in total  (3yrs no inflation)       Apple iPhone 11
             | - PS32 per month + PS19 upfront
             | PS1191 in total (3yrs no inflation)
             | 
             | The iPhone 11 is being sold for PS480 on Amazon - I'm
             | struggling to see where the heavy discount is.
        
             | skibble wrote:
             | Your comment about iPhone build quality is as anecdotal as
             | they come. Here's my counterpoint anecdotal take: I've had
             | pretty much every iPhone model since the iPhone 3G, and the
             | tiny number of issues I've had have been straightforward (a
             | free screen replacement as a result of a publicly
             | acknowledged issue, for example). I also work in the repair
             | sector (not for Apple), and have seen absolutely no
             | evidence to support your claim that iPhones are dying left
             | and right.
             | 
             | When Apple do entire device replacements, this is simply
             | because for weird issues it's a quicker and easier on-the-
             | spot resolution for both the end user and the Genius Bar
             | than spending days depriving the owners of pretty vital
             | devices trying to reproduce odd issues. Articles abound
             | detailing how exacting Apple are with suppliers, e.g:
             | 
             | https://www.theverge.com/23743095/apple-watch-band-
             | release-x...
        
           | qzw wrote:
           | I don't disagree with your overall point, but some of your
           | examples are hardly Veblen anymore. Or perhaps we have very
           | different definitions of upper-middle class. I live in what I
           | consider an upper-middle class area, where median household
           | income is about 3-5x the state's as a whole. Everybody has an
           | iPhone and you can't throw a rock without hitting a
           | Tesla/Mustang/Corvette. Jordans I won't comment on since I
           | know nothing about sneakers, but I would argue the other
           | brands are all no longer Veblen. My MIL used to buy only mid-
           | range Samsung phones that would become slow or lose
           | significant battery within a couple of years, necessitating a
           | replacement. My wife finally talked her into getting an
           | iPhone, and she's been using the same one for 4+ years and
           | has no desire to replace it, because it's still working fine.
           | And similarly for all the other people in my family and their
           | iPhones. I personally still rock a Xs. So for us and millions
           | of other people, iPhones are actually a better value than
           | most alternatives. Similarly, the Mustang and Corvette are
           | usually considered to be excellent values within their class.
           | Sure they're toys, but they deliver a lot more performance
           | per dollar than most fancier sporty cars. Tesla has been and
           | arguably still is the best electric car brand. Add in the
           | recent price reductions and the reintroduction of tax
           | credits, some Tesla models now have final costs below the
           | average new car price. Hardly a status indicator when you buy
           | a car that costs less than many Hondas and Toyotas.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | I think we're getting away from the definition of Veblen
             | goods in that it implies people wouldn't want a Tesla,
             | Mustang, or iPhone as much if you cut the price in half.
             | And that seems manifestly silly.
             | 
             | On the other hand, I can absolutely imagine that a lot of
             | the people who buy supercars would be less likely to buy a
             | Lambo, given it's downsides, if it were something any upper
             | middle-class household could afford if they wanted to.
        
             | mucle6 wrote:
             | If almost everyone has an iPhone/Telsa, but a few people
             | don't, some people may begin to read it as a signal. In a
             | sense, when veblen goods are popular in a community, they
             | have become table stakes instead of status symbols.
             | 
             | They're still veblen goods though even if they're table
             | stakes. Because they became table stakes due to their
             | price.
        
           | adamsmith143 wrote:
           | >Its interesting how many lower income people have iphones,
           | Jordans, Teslas/Mustangs/Corvettes
           | 
           | Yeah all those food stampers buying Corvettes and Teslas is
           | so annoying. Lolwut
        
           | mercutio2 wrote:
           | You think iPhones are out of reach to poor Americans? Or that
           | richer Americans don't predominantly use iPhones?
           | 
           | I think I agree with your point about who's consuming
           | positional goods, but... iPhones are a weird entry in your
           | list of luxury goods.
        
           | JohnFen wrote:
           | There's some fascinating class-based spending behavior I was
           | taught in school decades ago. I have no idea how valid it
           | still is, but I presume nothing much has changed.
           | 
           | What I remember finding the most curious on first glance is
           | that people in the lower-upper income group are the most
           | likely to be bankrupt within five years of hitting that
           | income band. Bu the explanation made sense to me: at that
           | income level, you begin to compare your lifestyle to those
           | who are much wealthier than you are, so you feel poor by
           | comparison. Therefore you're more likely to start spending at
           | rates that the income level can't actually sustain, in an
           | attempt to live like the wealthier people you have begun to
           | compare yourself to.
        
             | paganel wrote:
             | I think what you're describing is very similar to the
             | Diderot effect [1], which has been discussed in here
             | several times (I'm too lazy to search for those threads,
             | but that's how myself have learned about it):
             | 
             | > The Diderot Effect is a phenomenon that occurs when
             | acquiring a new possession leads to a spiral of consumption
             | that results in the acquisition of even more possessions.
             | In other words, it means that buying something new can
             | cause a chain reaction of buying more and more things
             | because the new item makes one feel like one needs other
             | things to go with it or to keep up with it. This can lead
             | to overspending and accumulating more possessions than one
             | actually needs or uses.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diderot_effect
        
           | Cockbrand wrote:
           | In case you're not quoting from it anyway, I'd recommend the
           | book "Class" by Paul Fussell. It's a bit outdated, and often
           | not really serious, but it takes this kind of observation
           | quite far.
        
             | bamfly wrote:
             | I've found it _remarkably_ useful, despite often being a
             | bit tongue-in-cheek.
             | 
             | The insight on mirrored surfaces was especially
             | interesting. I remember seeing a staged photo of some Trump
             | kid & spouse with their own kid playing in a living room
             | with a spotless mirrored table and was like "oh, hey!" Lots
             | of fun bits like that.
             | 
             | ... Actually, the entire Trump _thing_ was fascinating with
             | Fussell 's instruction guiding one's experience of it.
             | "Prole" fit on expensive suits. Middle-as-fuck taste in
             | home decor ("if you're rich it means everything's huge and
             | covered in gold, right?"). Still haven't figured out how
             | much of it's genuine and how much of it's an affectation
             | for marketing/personal-branding reasons.
             | 
             | He got his hope-for-the-future "Class X" all wrong--just an
             | upper-middle youth fashion wave, mostly--but otherwise it's
             | still a surprisingly-useful tool for analysis, considering
             | how old and half-jokey it was.
        
           | steveklabnik wrote:
           | > Not to say that some in the upper-middle class don't waste
           | money on a Ferrari
           | 
           | It is not actually possible to directly buy the fancy
           | Ferraris. No matter how much money you have. It's a whole
           | thing. You don't call them, they call you.
        
         | addcommitpush wrote:
         | The very next sentences explain why this is about conspicuous
         | consumption:
         | 
         | > The authors of "Signalling status with luxury goods: the role
         | of brand prominence", which appeared in the Journal of
         | Marketing in 2010, do so by dividing the rich into two groups:
         | "parvenus", who want to associate themselves with other rich
         | people and distinguish themselves from have-nots, and
         | "patricians", who want to signal to each other but not to the
         | masses. They theorise that more expensive luxury goods, aimed
         | at patricians, will have less obvious branding than cheaper
         | ones. Sure enough, they found that Gucci and Louis Vuitton
         | charge more for quieter handbags and Mercedes slaps bigger
         | emblems on its cheaper cars. People who cannot afford luxury
         | but want to look as if they can ("poseurs") go for big logos:
         | counterfeiters usually copy louder goods.
        
         | margalabargala wrote:
         | > I bet some large majority can identify an Hermes bag as an
         | expensive bag, logo or no.
         | 
         | Not to the extent you'd think, I bet. The designs of the Hermes
         | bags are designs that have been widely copied by far less
         | expensive manufacturers.
         | 
         | I went on the Hermes site and looked at some bags (they don't
         | show prices on their website), then looked up the prices of the
         | bags. They were all an order of magnitude more than I would
         | expect for the item I was looking at.
         | 
         | So, sure, most people could look at a bag and think "That bag
         | cost hundreds of dollars". But I don't think that most people
         | could look at the bag as think "that bag costs _thousands_ of
         | dollars ". Spending several thousand dollars on a handbag is so
         | far outside the realm of normal for people that it wouldn't
         | occur to them that it would be _that_ expensive.
        
       | jareklupinski wrote:
       | > But as Solca observes, there are good commercial reasons why
       | rationing by queue rather than price can make sense.
       | 
       | > First, it gives Hermes a buffer: even if demand drops, sales
       | will not.
       | 
       | > Second, it creates surplus demand for the bags, which overflows
       | into demand for other Hermes products. Much of the firm's
       | business consists of selling consolation prizes: wallets, belts,
       | beach towels and so on. As J.N. Kapferer of the Inseec Luxury
       | Institute in Paris observes, the wait induces "impatient buyers
       | to switch to other products of the brand, to calm their hunger
       | until the much-awaited object of desire is achieved."
       | 
       | > Third, although market-clearing prices might raise
       | profitability in the short term, in the long run they would drive
       | French women away, leaving nouveaux riches from the developing
       | world as the bags' main buyers. If elegant Parisiennes lose
       | interest, so, eventually, will women who aspire to be like them.
       | 
       | 'economics' would make more sense if offered as a humanities
       | course
        
         | HDThoreaun wrote:
         | Veblen goods are a topic that is covered in the first semester
         | of any serious econ program. Buying them is perfectly rational
         | and can be modeled mathematically.
        
           | morelisp wrote:
           | _At this point, an economist would tend to usher in the
           | argument made by Thorstein Veblen... Yet in a couple of ways,
           | Birkins do not look like classic Veblen goods._
        
             | davidw wrote:
             | So it's not econ 101. That's what makes it interesting and
             | noteworthy?
        
           | paulette449 wrote:
           | Veblen Goods sounded a lot like Giffen goods which were
           | covered in the economics module of my CS degree. I had to
           | check, they're related [1]:
           | 
           | "... both Veblen and Giffen goods have an upward-sloping
           | demand curve. This means that demand for them increases when
           | their price increases. Their main difference is in the type
           | of good.
           | 
           | Veblen goods are luxury items that connote status in society,
           | such as cars, yachts, fine wines, celebrity-endorsed
           | perfumes, and designer jewelry. Giffen goods are essential
           | goods, such as rice, potatoes and wheat. Demand stays high
           | when prices increase because there is no ready substitute for
           | them."
           | 
           | [1] - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/veblen-good.asp
        
             | jetrink wrote:
             | > Giffen goods are essential goods, such as rice, potatoes
             | and wheat. Demand stays high when prices increase because
             | there is no ready substitute for them.
             | 
             | The way Giffen goods were explained to me is that not only
             | is there no substitute for a Giffen good, it _is_ the
             | substitute. Imagine you eat meat and potatoes and the price
             | of potatoes increases. If you can no longer afford your
             | regular diet and need to cut costs, well, meat is probably
             | still more expensive than potatoes, so you buy less meat
             | and even more potatoes.
        
             | blowski wrote:
             | That's not the best explanation of Giffen goods, since it
             | only covers price inelasticity.
             | 
             | The key point of Giffen goods is that, as they become more
             | expensive, you have less to spend on alternatives and thus
             | have to buy more of the Giffen good. For example, you
             | normally spend 10% of your income on pasta but then the
             | price doubles. With less disposable income, you can afford
             | less meat, so buy more pasta instead. That said, there's
             | very scant evidence such an effect exists in the real
             | world.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | smiley1437 wrote:
             | Is healthcare a Giffen good? Because that would explain a
             | lot about the prices in the US healthcare system
             | 
             | edit: look like some people think so:
             | 
             | https://seekingalpha.com/article/4103336-healthcare-
             | ultimate...
             | 
             | https://www.econlib.org/archives/2006/01/giffens_paradox_1.
             | h...
             | 
             | https://gulzar05.blogspot.com/2007/05/giffen-goods.html?m=1
        
         | boc wrote:
         | I'm begging HN to stop assuming they understand economics
         | before dismissing the entire profession.
        
           | deciplex wrote:
           | I'm begging economists to stop assuming that the lessons of
           | their profession apply to every aspect of human behavior.
        
             | AussieWog93 wrote:
             | I'm not sure that serious economists do?
        
       | jkuria wrote:
       | Notice how this is stolen content? Nigerian blog stealing The
       | Economist content.
        
         | wmf wrote:
         | The Economist is a Veblen good; most people can only afford
         | knockoffs.
        
       | iamben wrote:
       | A long time since I read it, but Michael Tonello's memoir
       | "Bringing Home the Birkin" was a fun and easy read. Long and
       | short, he figured out how to skip the waiting lists, buy the bags
       | and flip them for profit.
       | 
       | https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bringing-Home-Birkin-Pursuit-Covete...
        
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       (page generated 2023-07-24 23:01 UTC)