[HN Gopher] Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 ...
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       Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
        
       Author : myshpa
       Score  : 35 points
       Date   : 2023-07-23 19:43 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (imgur.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (imgur.com)
        
       | JumpCrisscross wrote:
       | Do we have sea temperature data from before 1982? Like, thousands
       | of years'?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | freedryk wrote:
       | What's really astonishing about this is that to increase sea
       | surface temperature by 1.5 degrees C, you need to heat the whole
       | ocean mixed layer, which in summer is around 50 meters deep. E =
       | c_p * rho * h * dT ~ (4e3 J / kg K) * (10e3 kg / m^3) * (50 m) *
       | (1.5 K) = 3e8 J / m^2. So over the whole North Atlantic, this is
       | about a (4e14 m^2) * (3e8 J / m^2) = 1.2e23 Joules of energy that
       | have been added to the North Atlantic. That's about the same
       | amount of energy that the whole Earth absorbs from the sun in a
       | month.
        
       | myshpa wrote:
       | 4 sigma is once every 43 years (twice in a lifetime)
       | 
       | 4.5 sigma is once every 403 years (once in the modern era)
       | 
       | 5 sigma is once every 4776 years (once in recorded history)
        
         | myshpa wrote:
         | https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-24/antarctic-sea-ice-lev...
         | 
         | "The consensus statement at the moment would be that this is
         | largely anthropogenic forces that have caused the ocean to
         | warm, for the atmosphere to be highly disturbed and to affect
         | the sea ice," Dr Heil said. ...
         | 
         | Either way, she fears a further change in the balance could
         | trigger a tipping point from where it's difficult to reverse
         | the trajectory. ...
         | 
         | "I think a lot of people have the time line too long out,
         | saying this won't affect them. I'm pretty convinced that this
         | is something my generation will experience."
        
           | atkailash wrote:
           | [dead]
        
         | ttymck wrote:
         | How do you derive these?
         | 
         | Edit: probability for daily event, see here:
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_r...
        
       | roflyear wrote:
       | Totally insane. The water by me is 82'. The highest it has ever
       | been before this year was 78ish.
        
       | llamaLord wrote:
       | Is the frog boiling yet? Can we start doing something about all
       | this now please?
        
         | pstuart wrote:
         | There's an unfortunately high percentage of frogs who insist
         | the water is just fine, and if it's not it's God's will and
         | that's that.
         | 
         | There's a reason we can't have nice things...
        
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       (page generated 2023-07-23 23:02 UTC)