[HN Gopher] Journalists should be skeptical of all sources inclu...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Journalists should be skeptical of all sources including scientists
        
       Author : amadeuspagel
       Score  : 248 points
       Date   : 2023-07-21 20:01 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (natesilver.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (natesilver.substack.com)
        
       | droopyEyelids wrote:
       | One of my beliefs is that truth may have negative short-term
       | consequences, but the long term benefits are worth it in the long
       | run.
       | 
       | So, wow- the facts presented here are depressing. Really a huge
       | example of people in positions of authority blatantly misleading
       | the public.
        
       | jarjoura wrote:
       | Journalists have always been best at reporting the facts given to
       | them, even without understanding intent and all the other nuance
       | surrounding those facts. So we as readers should never take what
       | you read at 100%. I don't think that will ever change.
       | 
       | I love this little quote from "Michael Crichton"[1] as it's so
       | true.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/344530-briefly-stated-
       | the-g...
        
       | powera wrote:
       | It is astonishing how many people are saying that Nate Silver
       | must be wrong here, because he is going "against the experts".
       | 
       | The damning comments are those made by the experts! But, because
       | the disliked Nate Silver is involved, clearly the only fault is
       | in the reporting of the comments.
       | 
       | This hagiography of anyone who claims to be a credentialed expert
       | is contrary to everything Hacker News believed in a decade ago.
       | Apparently the bozos are winning here.
        
         | jonnycomputer wrote:
         | Did you read all the emails and slack messages? I came away
         | thinking: science is messy, this is overblown, I don't think
         | they did anything wrong.
        
         | threeseed wrote:
         | Nate Silver has no relevant qualifications, experience or
         | anything of merit to justify people taking onboard his opinion
         | without a healthy dose of skepticism. No different to any other
         | random person on the street.
         | 
         | That doesn't mean he's wrong of course but this is a subject
         | where right now everything is conjecture and hard proof may
         | never be found. So cautious restraint is needed before jumping
         | to any conclusions.
        
           | danenania wrote:
           | "Nate Silver has no relevant qualifications, experience or
           | anything of merit to justify people taking onboard his
           | opinion without a healthy dose of skepticism."
           | 
           | Compared to who? Many of the people who supposedly do have
           | the qualifications to discuss covid's origin appear to have
           | been corrupted by career/financial incentives and political
           | biases.
        
       | jgeada wrote:
       | Skepticism by the unqualified is just denial of expertise.
       | Whatever Mr Silver's qualification on statistics, it does not
       | render him any sort of expert on contagious pathology nor on
       | coronaviruses in general.
       | 
       | Skepticism is warranted when one has an underlying knowledge
       | basis to interpret new statements, put them into context of the
       | existing models and detect something amiss. Without that
       | foundation, what being called skepticism is just an assertion of
       | one's lack of knowledge. Dunning-Kruger effect in spades.
        
         | mikebenfield wrote:
         | People have to make judgments about which experts in which
         | fields to trust. Should I believe a Catholic priest (or a
         | Muslim imam, or a Jewish rabbi) when it comes to questions
         | about the nature of the universe? What about when it comes to
         | questions of ethics? They are experts, after all.
         | 
         | What about psychology? I am by no means an expert in
         | psychology, but I'm also well aware that there is a big crisis
         | in that field, where apparently most results can't be
         | replicated, and there seems to be a lot of both outright data
         | manipulation and just sheer incompetence with statistics on the
         | part of researchers. But should I just uncritically accept
         | results in that field? Again, I'm not an expert, so apparently
         | I'm not allowed to be skeptical.
        
       | speak_plainly wrote:
       | One very obvious thing to consider is how a paper, whether it's
       | philosophy or physics, was funded and which grants the authors
       | received and from who. So many conclusions and biases are driven
       | by funding mechanisms, sometimes it's corporate and sometimes
       | it's government but the devil is always in the details and there
       | is no safe or superior source of funding.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | guilhas wrote:
       | Clearly the media stakeholders had the narrative decided, and the
       | journalists were forced to find the scientists that supported it
       | and ignore or attack the scientists who opposed it
       | 
       | Same for politics reporting
       | 
       | The best way to stay informed is to read a book about something
       | currently not on the news
        
       | breakingrules wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | Cynical reaction: With how over-worked and under-resourced most
       | journalists are these days, we're lucky when they _have_ sources
       | who might maybe actually know something or other about the
       | subject at hand.
       | 
       | Bigger picture: In the specific case of COVID, what might have
       | helped most would be some really mature meta-journalism. A calm
       | Walter Cronkite telling us that, for the most part, nobody was
       | really sure of anything. Loads of "1mm wide, 1km deep" scientists
       | were scrambling to do stuff outside of their usual niches,
       | usually in a fraction of the time they'd normally need, and under
       | all sorts of emotional and political pressures - which they had
       | no experience whatever dealing with. The vast majority of 'em had
       | zero experience whatever in communicating scientific results to
       | the general public. And a small minority of 'em suddenly found
       | that they loved the limelight - about the same way that some
       | teenagers suddenly develop a taste for hard liquor - and would
       | certainly not be sources of reasonable nor sober information.
       | 
       | ...but with umpteen million people stuck at home during COVID,
       | and consuming any & all available news about it - what incentive
       | did the big (for-profit) media corporations have, to deliver any
       | sort of sober, mature coverage?
        
         | coolliquidcode wrote:
         | COVID was one place where their lack of skepticism really came
         | through. Early reports of how COVID spread would have been
         | deemed unrealistic quickly based on a basic understanding of
         | statistics. The early reports of how long the virus lived and
         | how easily transmittable it was should have meant the virus
         | would have spread to a high percentage of the population
         | immediately. Pfizer saying the vaccine prevented transmission
         | even though it is a leaky vaccine should have raised skepticism
         | to incredible heights. Instead, media used these reports to
         | create panic, fear and division. I highly doubt it takes too
         | much work to regurgitate other news outlets, Pfizer, and
         | government organization talking points.
        
       | Marazan wrote:
       | Lol at Nate Silver still being angry at not being able to eat at
       | a restaurant during the start of thr Delta wave.
       | 
       | Covid broke his brain.
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Can you please not post in the flamewar style to HN? It's not
         | what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.
         | 
         | You may not owe Nate Silver better but you owe this community
         | better if you're participating in it.
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
       | alphabet9000 wrote:
       | the line about "The truth is never going to come out" is related
       | to the uncertainty of whether or not it came from a lab, not (as
       | the piece implies) having anything to do with "They also thought
       | they were going to get away with it". it's very misleading and
       | should be corrected
        
         | jonnycomputer wrote:
         | Yeah; they seemed skeptical that China would ever let the world
         | know what actually happened, if something did escape.
        
       | Der_Einzige wrote:
       | Scientists should be skeptical of all source - including
       | Journalists
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#GellMannAmnes...
        
       | VintageCool wrote:
       | I have been upset with the NY Times for years because of their
       | uncritical addiction to access journalism.
       | 
       | * They held into the Abu Ghraib story for a year to avoid
       | influencing the 2004 election.
       | 
       | * They dismissed and discredited the story about DNS lookups
       | between email servers at Trump Tower, Spectrum Health (DeVos /
       | Erik Prince), and Alfa Bank (Russia) in 2016.
       | 
       | * They uncritically repeated the Barr memo about the Mueller
       | report. That one I couldn't believe -- there had been weeks of
       | reporting about how Bill Barr had been hired/appointed to
       | suppress the Mueller investigation. Then Bill Barr publishes a
       | memo a few days before the report saying that it's no big deal,
       | and the NY Times is publishing mea culpas about how they had done
       | wrong by reporting on Trump/Russia connections exposed by the
       | Mueller investigation??
       | 
       | Instead, it seemed like the New York Times liked getting scoops
       | from their sources high up in government, and they didn't want to
       | preserve those sources by not upsetting them.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | runesofdoom wrote:
       | While he's certainly careful to hedge (much like the scientists
       | he's critizcizing), Mr. Silver's argument boils down to, "I think
       | four scientists published a technically correct but politicially
       | motivated paper, so from now on journalists should consider peer-
       | reviewed publications by reputable PhD's as the equivalent of
       | Johnnie RedHat posting on Twitter".
        
       | adra wrote:
       | Sure? Due diligence is always important. I'm not implying that
       | science and journal publishing, or journalism are in bad shape,
       | but simply that scientific scholarships goal should be to
       | eventually converge on a truth ( or more likely an exclusion of
       | other opposing theories), whereas the goal of journalism to to
       | seek a truthful point in time capture of a topic. Just because
       | they're inherently different time scales to converge on truth,
       | any given scientific discussion shouldn't be "thrown over the
       | fence" with a low value copy pasta of the papers.
       | 
       | I think the vast majority of journalists and scientists
       | understand this general statement, but just because most
       | individuals are doing the right thing, you should always be wary
       | of the reputational failings of relying on a source with little
       | due diligence.
        
       | mapt wrote:
       | The biggest error a considered, good-faith journalist typically
       | makes is "Presenting both sides" without comment when one of them
       | is an established consensus with abundant supporting evidence. If
       | you go looking for a fringe outside perspective on an issue, or
       | the motivated reasoning of somebody who stands to gain by a bit
       | of sophistry, you will probably eventually be able to find one
       | presented by a PhD. That is not how research is supposed to work.
       | 
       | The biggest error made in the COVID origin story has been the
       | hilarious ineptitude and imprecision of the actual hypothesis
       | being forwarded, something that appears even in this article's
       | metacommentary on the matter - all the various sorts of "lab
       | leaks" that might have occurred are conflated, as if they were
       | one idea that might be true or false.
       | 
       | As long as we are conflating all lab leaks, when I say an
       | undetected contagion that happened to be on a bat they captured
       | might have accidentally walked out of the lab in somebody's nasal
       | cavity, you are free to hear that China bioengineered a weapon
       | and unleashed it on its own people in the interest of striking
       | out at 'Murica, demanding immediate geopolitical reprisals & a
       | violent purge of the Chinese-American population (something a
       | significant fraction of the country was very receptive towards).
       | 
       | "Lab Leak: True or false?" Both the same idea because we haven't
       | bothered to specify. When a far-right politician does this it's
       | clearly to sell the population a villain and sell themselves as
       | somebody who will take revenge, and then be able to motte and
       | bailey themselves back to the other position when the center-
       | right gets uncomfortable with the level of racism. When a non-
       | affiliated journalist does this, it's a high-stakes professional
       | failure, a display of carelessness that plausibly has a body-
       | count.
        
         | xkbarkar wrote:
         | You forgot to mention the lefts position. They usually used the
         | lab-leak theory to ridicule, mock and even have careers ended
         | for those who dared to propose it as plausible.
         | 
         | As so many of our media outlets lean to the left, the mocking
         | and ridiculing was clearly ubiquitous.
         | 
         | And when it started to look like lab leak theory had some
         | merit, media just went silent on the matter. SO I disagree hard
         | with that it's a right or far right tool to sell hero worship.
         | 
         | Journalism has turned to absolute shit and anything that comes
         | from the perceived "other" side must be instantly mocked
         | without any investigation or partisan integrity. And should the
         | "other" side show merit there will either be silence or
         | continued mockery along the lines of "even a broken clock is
         | right twice a day" . Left and right equally guilty.
         | 
         | Journalism is a joke. Maybe it always was and it's just these
         | past 3 years that made so many of us realise exactly what a
         | sh**show it actually is.
         | 
         | Several polls have shown that trust in news media is at a
         | historical low https://news.gallup.com/poll/195542/americans-
         | trust-mass-med...
         | 
         | and even expert opinion
         | https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2022/02/15/americans-tru...
         | has lost all merit as it is just, for the lack of a better
         | word, raped to haul in clicks.
         | 
         | This is especially true for the medical scientists who could
         | not get their shit together during the crisis and seemed to
         | have a pissingcompetition of who could recommend the most
         | intrusive, obnoxious guideline that conflicted the most with
         | what any other "expert" scientist recommended.
         | 
         | Masking toddlers, banning sitting on public park benches,
         | banning children from playgrounds. Banning walking outdoors in
         | company. Masking while standing up in a restaurant to take it
         | off while sitting down. Banning sports, isolating the elderly
         | to the point of driving them to insanity and severe cognitive
         | decline. DENYING AEROSOL SPREAD. That one is my personal pet
         | peeve with the scientific community. The embarrassing list is
         | endless.
         | 
         | My own trust in medical expertise, that is, the one I see in
         | the news. Is at an all time low. I ofc listen to my personal
         | MD. But if she'd proclaim something in the media I'd probably
         | never listen to her again and switch doctors.
        
           | jxramos wrote:
           | That Jon Stewart take on it is pretty funny
           | https://youtu.be/sSfejgwbDQ8?t=211, the Hershey factory, gets
           | me pretty good.
        
           | smrtinsert wrote:
           | The media was not silent as it became more plausible it was
           | prominent. Seems like you have have a somewhat myopic
           | consumption pattern.
        
         | vxNsr wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | > When a non-affiliated journalist does this, it's a high-
         | stakes professional failure, a display of carelessness that
         | plausibly has a body-count.
         | 
         | I haven't seen any non-affiliated journalists doing this. I've
         | seen right-wing journalists doing it, fitting whatever they can
         | find into their ten times stepped-on John Birch worldview. What
         | I've seem _far more of_ is administration-connected journalists
         | characterizing whatever position that they support censorship
         | of in its most extremist, unhinged, obviously factually-
         | incorrect form. Radical right-wingers insist that they 're the
         | only option other than current Democratic party orthodoxy, and
         | Democrats agree with them 100%.
        
         | ctoth wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | rossdavidh wrote:
         | Certainly you are correct that there are several different
         | "lab" theory versions, and they vary by orders of magnitude in
         | how plausible they are. However:
         | 
         | "I think the main thing still in my mind is that the lab escape
         | version of this is so friggin' likely to have happened because
         | they were already doing this type of work and the molecular
         | data is fully consistent with that scenario."
         | 
         | This, is damning evidence regardless of any of that. Nothing
         | remotely like this was being presented by mainstream newsmedia,
         | perhaps because nothing remotely like it was being presented to
         | them by the scientists they talked to. There was no version of
         | a lab origin theory that was being presented as worthy of
         | consideration.
         | 
         | Which is important, not least because "our propensity to pay
         | China to do our research at the lowest cost has resulted in a
         | virus leaking out of the lab" is very different in its
         | implications than "China was researching bioweapons and
         | released one". How is an ordinary person supposed to know which
         | of those theories are remotely plausible, and which
         | implausible?
         | 
         | If only there were a profession, between scientists and the
         | general public, whose job was to help the latter understand the
         | work of the former...
        
           | kmontrose wrote:
           | > This, is damning evidence regardless of any of that.
           | Nothing remotely like this was being presented by mainstream
           | newsmedia, perhaps because nothing remotely like it was being
           | presented to them by the scientists they talked to. There was
           | no version of a lab origin theory that was being presented as
           | worthy of consideration.
           | 
           | You have to acknowledge this is incredibly weak logic. "A
           | thing is possible, therefore it happened." Is this molecular
           | evidence the Furin Cleavage Site? Cause that was peddled
           | basically as a lie - they occur in nature just fine, it's
           | also used in research.
           | 
           | I'm unaware of any compelling evidence for the lab leak
           | theory, but I will acknowledge it's basically impossible to
           | disprove. We don't know where most diseases arose (or where
           | they came from) - it's just we mostly don't care, unlike with
           | COVID.
        
       | susanasj wrote:
       | I think, as with any politically charged topic, journalists are
       | going to have biases. I don't think there is any particular
       | solution to this except being conscious of those biases,
       | particularly as they relate to career advancement and money.
       | Money explains nearly everything about the issues in the American
       | media ecosystem for me, not cultural factors like "some
       | journalists are more open about being on the left".
       | 
       | One writer that I followed nearly every day for the first 18
       | months of the pandemic was Derek Lowe at Science.org who runs a
       | fantastic blog about drug discovery, and he has given his
       | assessment of the origins debate a few times. The short answer is
       | he doesn't know either unfortunately
       | https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/origins-pandemic--...
        
       | jxramos wrote:
       | Don't be incurious, be curious and sensitive to what you
       | understand and what you don't follow. There's a degree of
       | humility involved where you honestly admit when you don't
       | understand something and be vocal about it so people of good will
       | can help fill in the blanks.
        
       | kzz102 wrote:
       | It seems to me that the authors of the paper, _in anticipation_
       | that writing scientifically (that they don 't believe the lab
       | leak hypothesis, but it cannot be disproven) will be
       | misinterpreted by journalists and the public, resorted to write
       | in more certain terms.
       | 
       | I disagree with the authors. Scientists should not try to control
       | the reaction to their publication.
       | 
       | I also don't think this cast a good lights on the journalists at
       | all. The nature of the issue is that even if the scientists had
       | been precise in what they wrote, what they wrote would have been
       | distorted and misrepresented.
        
       | xbar wrote:
       | I, for one, am skeptical of everyone who still calls themselves a
       | journalist.
        
         | no_butterscotch wrote:
         | Yes, journalists used to speak truth to power.
         | 
         | Now they work on behalf of the power.
         | 
         | And they don't just work on behalf of power, they are power
         | themselves, and it isn't the people's power despite their claim
         | to being "the voice of the people".
        
         | unethical_ban wrote:
         | This level of cynicism is the cause of the downfall of society.
         | 
         | Journalism is as necessary as government. As necessary as
         | speech itself. Particularly in the age of perfect facsimiles of
         | audio/photo/video evidence facilitated by AI, webs of trust and
         | reputable sources of information will be as important as ever.
         | 
         | It is dangerous and wrong to insult the profession as an idea.
         | 
         | None of this is to say that journalism is flawless any more
         | than government or society is flawless. But it is necessary.
        
       | jasonvorhe wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | papito wrote:
         | Gotta love HN users. The initial comment is so "objective" and
         | righteous. "This person is clearly looking at all points of
         | view".
         | 
         | Then you ask a simple question and it all comes out. Ok, I am
         | off to "not one-sided news media" to read about how Ukrainian
         | women were being raped in basements because of NATO, but at
         | least the soldiers weren't wearing surgical masks.
        
           | jasonvorhe wrote:
           | Perhaps it's because I'm not a native speaker but I have no
           | idea what you're trying to tell me. I'm trying to take the
           | most positive interpretation and that you're saying that
           | you're putting me into some right-wing lunatic fringe corner
           | that's somehow pro-Russia? I honestly don't know. And... you
           | never asked a question?
           | 
           | Perhaps read this
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html, especially
           | where it's about comments. I'm not the best example of always
           | following them myself but I'm having a hard time extracting
           | anyting of value from your comment. Sorry.
        
           | slily wrote:
           | Your comment reminds me of this line from the submission:
           | 
           | "There's also a generational divide in journalism, with
           | younger journalists tending to be more openly
           | left/progressive than their older peers -- and tending to be
           | more Manichean in dividing the world between good and evil
           | rather than proceeding from the notion that people and news
           | stories are complicated and it's not particularly their job
           | to pass moral judgment."
           | 
           | This is probably true of the younger generations in general,
           | not just journalists.
           | 
           | Sadly any attempt at communicating a nuanced view makes you
           | subject to vicious attacks from binary thinkers, who often
           | miss the point and derail the discussion.
        
             | papito wrote:
             | Interesting. So we should probably have a more nuanced
             | discussion about the Holocaust, yes? Hitler had his
             | complicated reasons for it, and we need to be able to see
             | his point of view.
             | 
             | You know, at some point, if you try to see "both sides"
             | like this, you are going to lose the plot.
        
               | jasonvorhe wrote:
               | From raped women by masked NATO soldiers to the holocaust
               | - I was really willing to the give you the benefit of the
               | doubt, but it seems you're just baiting. Oh well.
        
         | Scarbutt wrote:
         | What was the issue with COVID?
        
       | jonnycomputer wrote:
       | I spent at least an hour reading through both the emails and the
       | slack messages in this "expose", but I came away from it fairly
       | certain that they are being portrayed unfairly, and I'm fairly
       | surprised that Nate Silver has latched on to this. You have to
       | both look at the time-line of the paper writing and the time-line
       | of the conversations. By my reading, by the time the paper was
       | being written, most of them had indeed come to the conclusion
       | that (1) there was no evidence for an engineered virus, (2) that
       | the data was consistent with both a leak from a lab (without
       | engineering) or from exposure to animals, but that (3) the former
       | was not as a priori likely, given what they knew about the kinds
       | of research being done.
       | 
       | You just can't take something someone says in Jan. 2020 at the
       | start of their looking at the problem, and what they said in
       | their paper written in Feb. 2020 on the same level. They
       | _started_ with concerns that it was an engineered virus and moved
       | away from that view the more they learned.
        
         | stubybubs wrote:
         | "Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a
         | purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to
         | prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described
         | here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2
         | features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage
         | site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe
         | that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.
         | 
         | More scientific data could swing the balance of evidence to
         | favor one hypothesis over another."
         | 
         | Pretty standard scientific writing. I think the lesson is don't
         | trust journalists and the general public to not blow what
         | you're saying out of proportion and assign it more certainty
         | than you intended.
         | 
         | Lab leak is _possible_ , sure. But keep in mind every horrible
         | disease humanity has faced up until the early part of the 20th
         | century came about before microbiology labs even existed.
         | Historically, a zoonitic origin is extremely likely.
         | 
         | Imagine if polio or smallpox or leprosy popped up today, you'd
         | have every Joe internet theorizing how it came from a lab in
         | whatever country it appeared in first. I guess back in the day
         | they used to say it was punishment from God. The Spanish flu,
         | God out there smiting the Spaniards.
        
           | jonnycomputer wrote:
           | 100% this.
        
         | aredox wrote:
         | Nate Silver has been blatantly wrong several times during
         | COVID, has been schooled by actual scientists and is now on a
         | personal vendetta against them.
         | 
         | He is ready to fan the flames of science-bashing because his
         | fragile yet enormuous ego has been hurt. That tells all that
         | you need to know about him. (Don't believe me? He has never
         | apologised nor shown a little bit of humility after being
         | corrected. That's who he is.)
        
           | hooverd wrote:
           | Superforecasteritis is the new Nobelitis.
        
           | tekla wrote:
           | Provide links please.
        
             | Fomite wrote:
             | https://twitter.com/GermsAndNumbers/status/1634087467874947
             | 0...
             | 
             | This is a somewhat flippant take of mine, but is emblematic
             | of a lot of Nate Silver's posting during the pandemic,
             | which is that epidemiologists are all hyper risk adverse
             | ninnies, and we're clearly at the end of the pandemic.
        
               | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
               | You could go to the 2016 election and see Nate Silver
               | backtrack and never admit failure if you like. This guy
               | came up out of nowhere and is a clown.
        
         | jonnycomputer wrote:
         | Also, paper writing is a collaborative effort, which does not
         | imply that everyone on the paper agrees with every part of it
         | 100%. e.g. if I get Jane on the paper because she knows the
         | more than me about X, but we end up having a soft disagreement
         | about X, I'm not walking away from the paper.
         | 
         | Also ... authors have good reason to manage their interactions
         | with journalists. They don't want to be used or misrepresented.
         | Also, given the politics of the moment, they also had every
         | reason to be cautious about what they said publicly.
        
         | Marazan wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
         | gptbore wrote:
         | I agree with your description of what these correspondents
         | consensus seemed to be at the time of writing.
         | 
         | I don't see how this is at all consistent with that the paper
         | claimed - "we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based
         | scenario is plausible", nor how it was portrayed by the media -
         | "COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin".
        
           | jonnycomputer wrote:
           | The phrase "is not likely" imo should have been substituted
           | for "is not plausible", though I am not sure everyone else
           | interprets the phrase "not plausible" as meaning something
           | like "almost certainly not true"; they could have meant it
           | as, something like, "the least likely of all the
           | possibilities, by a fair margin." Sure, I'd have preferred if
           | they had been explicit, by giving their estimate of the
           | probability of each possibility explicitly.
        
       | ke88y wrote:
       | Big question: HOW?
       | 
       | Most journalists in the USA receive basically zero scientific
       | education. At university I majored in two STEM subjects but also
       | took 10 courses in Philosophy, Art, History, Journalism, and
       | Economics. Almost no one majoring in any of those fields except
       | Econ took more than 2-3 STEM courses, and even then there a
       | dedicated watered down courses to ensure those people could
       | graduate (Algebra instead of Calculus, "Physics for Future
       | Presidents", etc.).
       | 
       | My high school education in the humanities was also far better
       | than my high school education in STEM, which is typical. And the
       | deplorable state of Mathematics education in US high schools acts
       | as a hard constraint toward improving the situation, since you
       | need a baseline of mathematics literacy before proceeding along
       | any other path in STEM.
       | 
       | How are journalists supposed to be _productively_ skeptical when
       | the vast majority of them don 't receive anything remotely
       | approaching a truly well-rounded education?
       | 
       | Go read the proximal origins paper. How is a journalist who has
       | never seen a derivative, has never taken BIO 101, and whose
       | Science distribution credit was fulfilled by Physics For Future
       | Presidents supposed to dive into the claims in that paper and
       | critically evaluate the surrounding literature? They can't.
        
         | nonameiguess wrote:
         | Even if you get a STEM education, at least at the undergrad
         | level, it tends not to include anywhere near enough hands on
         | research to learn much about experimental methods that would
         | help you assess the validity of study designs when reporting on
         | a new paper that just got published. And even when you have
         | that, experimental methods tend to be extremely specific to the
         | field of study.
         | 
         | I almost think it would be better if virtually everyone, even
         | if you're not a STEM major, taking at least a course on
         | hierarchy of evidence and how particular study designs attempt
         | to demonstrate causation, along with some basic statistical
         | literacy. But I was listening to a very good breakdown of the
         | aspartame history this morning and the host was going on about
         | criticisms of some of the early studies showing cancer in rats
         | dealing with exactly how randomization works when you're
         | dealing with multiple litters from the same gene line and why
         | they usually terminate the rats early instead of waiting for
         | natural death, and these are things you could never possibly
         | know unless you specifically have a background in rodent
         | studies. I was a biology major and still didn't know any of
         | this stuff.
        
         | stevenAthompson wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | wk_end wrote:
           | Silver isn't arguing for-or-against the lab leak hypothesis
           | here.
           | 
           | > To be clear, I'm not sure how COVID originated either. I'd
           | "buy" the lab leak at a 50 percent likelihood [...] and sell
           | it at 80 percent, which still leaves a lot of wiggle room for
           | me to be persuaded one way or the other.
           | 
           | This post is his commentary on leaked communications
           | demonstrating that the _authors of the paper themselves didn
           | 't believe the contents of the paper_. This has nothing to do
           | with a medical background or what the CDC believes; media
           | savviness is precisely the qualification required here.
        
             | stevenAthompson wrote:
             | His citations for those claims about the authors are 3
             | substack blogs and something called "usrtk.org" which seems
             | to exist largely to spread covid origin rumors.
             | 
             | I'm going to go out on a limb a suggest that he's already
             | made up his mind and much like Fox Mulder, he just wants to
             | believe.
        
               | wk_end wrote:
               | > We know this because of a series of leaked and FOIAed
               | emails and Slack messages that have been reported on by
               | Public, Racket News, The Intercept and The Nation along
               | with other small, independent media outlets. You can find
               | a detailed summary of the claims and a copy of the emails
               | and messages here at Public.
               | 
               | None of Public, Racket News, The Intercept, or The Nation
               | are Substack blogs, nor are they publications that exist
               | largely to spread COVID origin rumours.
        
               | stevenAthompson wrote:
               | He doesn't link any of those. Only the blogs and the
               | conspiracy site.
        
         | jimbokun wrote:
         | This is true for everything a journalist might cover.
         | 
         | They are not the expert, but still need to strive to find the
         | truth of an issue they can relay to the public.
         | 
         | In this case, the underlying skill is, how do you detect and
         | expose a cover up of inconvenient facts?
         | 
         | I don't know the answer to that question. But seems like a core
         | skill of a journalist, regardless of the field being
         | investigated.
        
         | mettamage wrote:
         | So wait, I could make a career in being a software engineering
         | style type of journalist?
         | 
         | I just don't think they would care, would they?
         | 
         | If anyone is reading it working as such, feel free to humor me
         | by shooting me an email (in my profile). I studied psychology
         | (bachelor), business (bachelor), computer science (master) and
         | game-design (master). I also did some course work related to
         | journalism (though very limited, I only read The Elements of
         | Style). I worked as a teacher (mostly in programming, though
         | one lecture on rhetorics in a rhetorics class) and as a
         | software engineer.
         | 
         | Let me know! I'm up for a chat as I might be a good fit and
         | able to help more accurate reporting on AI and software in
         | general.
        
           | zztop44 wrote:
           | Yep that's all great but the key to being good at journalism
           | is being a good journalist. Take Matt Levine. His background
           | as an M&A attorney and investment banker clearly informs his
           | journalism and makes it better. But no one would give a shit
           | about that if he wasn't a good writer consistently writing
           | good, interesting writing.
        
         | throwaway14356 wrote:
         | Gary Stevenson was surprised no one wanted to publish his
         | article. They already had an economist one said. He argued he
         | could walk into large financial institutions and they would
         | immediately hire him for millions, the staff economy writer
         | wouldn't make it past the reception - but he should be the one
         | to write all of the articles to inform the public?
        
         | sn9 wrote:
         | Ezra Klein interviewed Zeynep Tufeckci about basically this
         | because she's had an unusually good track record for a non-
         | specialist on lots of topics, and it really comes down to being
         | statistically literate and putting in the work:
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/04/podcasts/ezra-klein-podca...
        
           | harry8 wrote:
           | >really comes down to being statistically literate
           | 
           | A lot of people writing scientific papers aren't
           | statistically literate.
           | 
           | It also seems that what was considered first rate methodology
           | even a decade ago is now considered deeply unreliable.
        
         | ctrlp wrote:
         | "Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent."
        
           | coeneedell wrote:
           | This line in the tractatus is not about the individual's
           | knowledge it's about the entire research programme's ability
           | to know something fundamentally unknowable. In particular
           | Wittgenstein was referring to logical philosophers talking
           | about metaphysics, which evades logical positivism. Even then
           | he wasn't against the practice of metaphysics, only the
           | attempt to describe it with hard logic.
        
         | SoftTalker wrote:
         | > How are journalists supposed to be productively skeptical
         | when the vast majority of them don't receive anything remotely
         | approaching a truly well-rounded education?
         | 
         | Ask questions. Ask "why" a lot, don't take things at face
         | value. Assume you're being bullshitted.
         | 
         | You don't need to deeply undestand a subject to make someone
         | back up what they are saying.
        
           | newsclues wrote:
           | multiple sources as well. present contrasting viewpoints
        
           | ke88y wrote:
           | Again, without a baseline educational background, doing so in
           | a way that's productive -- ie anything more than running
           | around like a chicken with its head cut off -- is impossible.
           | 
           | There were journalists on the COVID vaccine beat for ove a
           | year who had never taken a Bio 101 course, let alone self-
           | studied undergraduate level genetics. They lacked the
           | fundamental background required to assess evidence, to know
           | which questions to ask, to know which people to ask, is all
           | highly suspect.
        
             | Fomite wrote:
             | I have often asserted that one of the reasons the lab leak
             | hypothesis has so much backing in the wider press vs. most
             | epidemiologists and virologists I know is that it moves the
             | pandemic back into a realm in which they are experts.
             | 
             | Nate Silver is _much_ more comfortable asserting his
             | opinion about this than I am, because, as an infectious
             | disease epidemiologist who primarily focuses on the
             | stochastics of disease emergence and disease extinction, my
             | expertise is a good two weeks after when either a zoonotic
             | jump or a lab leak would take place. Take that for what you
             | will.
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | "Dr. Scientist, you said X. Describe the evidence for that
             | claim?"
             | 
             | "Dr. Scientist, are you aware of claim Y, which seems at
             | odds with what you are saying? Explain why claim Y is
             | wrong?"
             | 
             | Write it up. You don't have to understand it to write a
             | story about what they said. That's what "reporting" is.
        
               | aydyn wrote:
               | > You don't have to understand it to write a story about
               | what they said.
               | 
               | Pretty much the silliest thing I've heard today!
               | 
               | "Dr. Scientist, you said that vaccines promote herd
               | immunity describe your evidence for that claim"
               | 
               | "Dr. Scientist, you said that mRNA vaccines aren't going
               | to mutate humans, describe your evidence for that claim"
               | 
               | "Dr. Scientist, you predicted this year is hotter than
               | ever, but back in February it was -20. Why did you lie?"
               | 
               | There are an infinite numbers of terrible questions you
               | could ask as a reporter, if you don't have expertise. You
               | need some degree of knowledge to talk about a subject,
               | the only debate is how much.
        
           | cactusplant7374 wrote:
           | > Assume you're being bullshitted.
           | 
           | > You don't need to deeply undestand a subject to make
           | someone back up what they are saying.
           | 
           | Isn't that what the Covid vaccine skeptics did? It didn't
           | turn out that great and made journalists look like conspiracy
           | theorists in some cases.
        
         | obscurette wrote:
         | Although I'm not really sure it's a global issue, but at least
         | here in Eastern Europe you just have no time to dig in deeper
         | in any subject as journalist. I've seen local academic
         | institutions trying to support journalists to specialize on
         | science reporting more than 10 years now, but all have left
         | saying that pressure to produce just more text is too intense.
         | Old school investigative journalism just doesn't exist any
         | more.
        
           | dr_dshiv wrote:
           | Well, now they can have chatGPT save them so much time that
           | they can do quality research, right?
        
         | oatmeal1 wrote:
         | I'm not sure existing journalists could do it, but perhaps this
         | can act as a call to action for a scientist to start a blog or
         | YouTube channel that analyzes scientific discoveries, and/or
         | fact checks existing journalists' interpretations of scientific
         | literature.
        
           | Given_47 wrote:
           | I'm sure there r random blogs devoted to that lol. Which is y
           | I aggressively bookmark niche sites cuz by definition gold
           | mines r very much not discoverable
        
         | mike_hearn wrote:
         | They don't have to shoot for perfection. The bar has sunk so
         | low even very basic techniques can yield huge improvements in
         | trust:
         | 
         | 1. Report the fact that disagreement exists. Phrased
         | differently, stop taking academics at their word when they
         | claim there's a consensus. Do some basic web searches to find
         | people who disagree. Get quotes from them. Stress on the word
         | _people_ ; not just other academics but literally anyone
         | disagreeing on scientific grounds eliminates the claim of
         | consensus. Bloggers are fine.
         | 
         | 2. READ the papers. Journalists never do this. I cannot express
         | how frequently you can spot scientific fraud by just reading
         | the underlying papers, even as a layman. If you lack expertise
         | maybe you'll miss 90% of the tricks but catching 10% of them is
         | still sufficient to notice something is wrong, and often you
         | don't need any special training. Here are some of my own
         | investigations of bad papers - it's often obvious and most of
         | it doesn't require expertise to spot.
         | 
         | https://blog.plan99.net/did-russian-bots-impact-brexit-ad66f...
         | 
         | https://blog.plan99.net/fake-science-part-ii-bots-that-are-n...
         | 
         | 3. Hold sources to account when it's proven that they were
         | misleading you. Report on bad behavior to discourage it next
         | time.
         | 
         | 4. Be willing to report stories dug up by other people, even
         | when they make Team University look bad. Note how the reporting
         | Silver refers to hasn't been covered by legacy media outlets
         | even though you don't need to be a scientist to understand what
         | they're saying and how damning it is.
         | 
         | In reality this stuff is easy. Nobody is asking for the NYT to
         | engage in professional peer review of newly published papers.
         | Just not assuming anything a professor says is gospel truth
         | would be a good start, but there seems little chance of that
         | happening :( Journalists depend so heavily on academics for
         | rent-a-quote services and a constant flow of stories that
         | getting tough would be biting the hand that feeds them.
        
           | hooverd wrote:
           | wrt 1., there are an unfortunate number of cranks for every
           | discipline. It would be funny to see journos publish the
           | emails that every faculty member who releases their email in
           | the university phonebook gets as Serious Disagreement*
           | though.
        
           | dekhn wrote:
           | it's rare for "layman" to find true errors in papers, and you
           | weren't a layman when you did your investigation, as you say
           | in the article.
           | 
           | That said, 90% of all papers contain at least one important
           | error that brings the conclusions into question. Note that
           | even great papers that established long-accepted truths
           | contain important errors, see both https://en.wikipedia.org/w
           | iki/Oil_drop_experiment#Controvers... and https://en.wikipedi
           | a.org/wiki/Oil_drop_experiment#Millikan's...
           | 
           | Similarly, the original 3D structure of DNA from W&C was
           | actually "wrong" but I truly doubt any laymen (laypeople)
           | could have determined that by reading the original paper
           | (which is a paragon of clear and simple scientific
           | reporting).
        
           | ke88y wrote:
           | I agree with your prescriptions, but worry the point might've
           | slipped by.
           | 
           |  _> READ the papers_
           | 
           | The point of my original comment is that most journalists
           | don't have the educational background required to do this.
           | And everything else flows downstream of that problem.
        
             | mike_hearn wrote:
             | The issue is not that they can't do it, they just don't
             | want to. Journalists with no science background are happy
             | to write quite technical fact checks of articles - even
             | articles written by scientists - when those articles are
             | contradicting something the journalists are already
             | invested in.
             | 
             | And often the problems don't need specialist knowledge to
             | spot. The before/after images purporting to be of surgery
             | in this article can be detected as fraud by anyone:
             | 
             | https://blog.plan99.net/fake-science-part-i-7e9764571422
             | 
             | No expertise needed. Blatant stuff like that is more
             | obvious than we'd hope.
        
               | mcpackieh wrote:
               | The issue is that journalists _could_ do better if they
               | wanted to, but they don 't want to and there's no system
               | of incentives in place that would make them want to.
               | There's no such thing as a journalism license they could
               | lose, and publishing nonsensical science articles doesn't
               | hurt their careers in any way because nobody expects
               | better of them. After all, they're just journalists with
               | no STEM education...
               | 
               | Even if you somehow forced science journalists to all get
               | STEM dual majors, it still wouldn't make them care.
               | They'd still take the path of least resistance and pump
               | out slop. The only way to make them care is to put them
               | under editors that enforce standards. But how do you make
               | a publication care enough to hire editors that care? Even
               | state funded university press departments notoriously
               | sloppy. If they can't uphold standards, I doubt any
               | organization can.
        
           | thorncorona wrote:
           | > 1. Report the fact that disagreement exists. Phrased
           | differently, stop taking academics at their word when they
           | claim there's a consensus. Do some basic web searches to find
           | people who disagree. Get quotes from them. Stress on the word
           | people; not just other academics but literally anyone
           | disagreeing on scientific grounds eliminates the claim of
           | consensus. Bloggers are fine.
           | 
           | This is how you get journalists to report disagreements that
           | don't exist in reality. For example, whether the earth is
           | flat, whether climate change is real, etc.
           | 
           | > 2. READ the papers.
           | 
           | Literally nobody reads the papers. A huge amount of news
           | isn't even investigated. A large number of news these days is
           | regurgitated from other sources.
        
             | mike_hearn wrote:
             | Journalists love reporting on flat Earthers even though
             | their beliefs have no impact on anything in the real world:
             | 
             | https://news.google.com/search?q=%22flat%20earth%22&hl=en-
             | US...
             | 
             | Realistically, journalists like to report on fringe or
             | weird beliefs so they can laugh at the people holding them,
             | and dislike reporting on serious disagreement with things
             | they want to be true.
             | 
             | Agree that almost nobody is reading the papers, outside of
             | random tweeters and bloggers. Journalists might as well
             | start, though. Reading obscure documents is a part of the
             | job, classically at least.
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | You can still look at credentials.
             | 
             | If there is disagreement among people with appropriate
             | background, experience, and education, it can be reported
             | as a legitimate disagreement. The journalist should be
             | evaluating the credentials of sources, but not what they
             | say, and not on the basis of whether the journalist
             | personally agrees with them.
        
             | hackyhacky wrote:
             | > This is how you get journalists to report disagreements
             | that don't exist in reality. For example, whether the earth
             | is flat, whether climate change is real, etc.
             | 
             | Correct. Part of the problem is that _there is disagreement
             | about whether a disagreement exists_. Cranks believe that
             | there is a vigorous debate about flat-earth
             | /evolution/climate change, and scientists don't.
             | 
             | Do how does one (journalist) objectively determine whether
             | an issue is settled or not?
        
           | timr wrote:
           | Great comment.
           | 
           | One thing I'll add: if you don't have specific training in
           | the field in question, just _ignore_ any use of  "scientific
           | consensus" to justify an argument.
           | 
           | The "scientific consensus" trope is just dressed-up appeal to
           | authority, and even if there _is_ such a  "consensus", it's
           | almost never broad enough to be applicable to whatever pop-
           | science journalism thing you're reading.
           | 
           | Also, even within the hallowed halls of academic science,
           | most scientists are just repeating things they've heard other
           | people say. Unless the "consensus" is amongst scientists who
           | have spent their entire career studying the specific question
           | (and by "specific", I mean... _hyper specific_ , not just "in
           | the same field", and certainly not something meaningless like
           | "epidemiology"), this kind of thing just devolves into a
           | popularity contest. You'd be shocked by how many PhDs just
           | confidently repeat whatever silly thing they saw that morning
           | in the New York Times.
           | 
           | Also, since I'm already seeing the meme appear...people are
           | _waaaaay_ too worried about  "amplifying fringe voices" these
           | days. News flash: if you don't know what you're talking
           | about, then you can't possibly know what you should or should
           | not be "amplifying". Stick to what you know, be modest about
           | what you _don 't_ know (which is most things), and let the
           | facts sort themselves out over time. Science only works if
           | contrarians get a voice.
        
             | giantrobot wrote:
             | > Science only works if contrarians get a voice.
             | 
             | This is more of the rather tired "contrarians are always
             | right" meme that seems to crop up constantly on HN.
             | 
             |  _Sometimes_ a contrarian is right and the accepted
             | consensus is wrong. But that doesn 't happen only because
             | the contrarian position is contrarian, it's because the
             | contrarians brought receipts. They applied proper
             | scientific rigor and came up with a falsifiable theory that
             | fits empirical observations _and_ is sufficiently
             | predictive. They also set out to _disprove_ their
             | hypothesis.
             | 
             | Not all contrarians need a "voice". It's not worth anyone's
             | time to rebut yet another unfounded and stupid perpetual
             | motion theorem or electric universe bullshit. It's far
             | easier to spam stupid contrarian ideas than to produce real
             | rigorous scientific output.
        
               | runesofdoom wrote:
               | As Carl Sagan said, "They laughed at Columbus, they
               | laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers.
               | But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown."
        
               | timr wrote:
               | > This is more of the rather tired "contrarians are
               | always right" meme that seems to crop up constantly on
               | HN.
               | 
               | No, it isn't. I literally did not say that, I didn't mean
               | that, I don't _believe_ that, and trying to spin it that
               | way is a tortured way of reading the very sentence you
               | quoted.
               | 
               | Contrarians don't have to be _right_ to require a voice
               | for the system to work.
               | 
               | > Not all contrarians need a "voice". It's not worth
               | anyone's time to rebut yet another unfounded and stupid
               | perpetual motion theorem or electric universe bullshit.
               | 
               | The point is, you aren't smart enough to know the
               | difference. Nobody is. The way I know that science is
               | working is because I can _see the all the disagreements
               | and judge for myself_. Efficiency isn 't the goal.
               | 
               | But since you're concerned, I spend exactly zero percent
               | of time time worrying about perpetual motion or electric
               | universes. Even if I did spend time on this, that's my
               | choice, and who are _you_ to tell me otherwise?
               | 
               | Folks who want to protect "my time" from "unfounded
               | theories" are rarely as interested in in my time as they
               | are about censoring things they don't like.
        
             | cwalv wrote:
             | > Science only works if contrarians get a voice.
             | 
             | I completely agree, but it's counterintuitive. There's a
             | part of me that thinks "science == reproducible, observable
             | fact". But it really is much more (er, less) than that.
             | It'd be nice if there was a different word for the "not
             | irrefutable" parts (i.e. almost all of it).
        
         | matt3210 wrote:
         | The idea that the normies could do real science is pure
         | projection
        
         | CrzyLngPwd wrote:
         | I don't write articles on subjects I don't understand no matter
         | how much paper money is thrown at me.
         | 
         | Maybe start there.
        
         | scythe wrote:
         | >Most journalists in the USA receive basically zero scientific
         | education.
         | 
         | First, you need a way to communicate to the reader that the
         | journalist writing the article is a qualified science
         | journalist. Then, to satisfy that, you need an appropriate
         | curriculum and a governing body to manage the accreditation of
         | science journalism programs. Then, to make that practical, you
         | need to support certificate programs for journalists beginning
         | their education with partial credentials.
         | 
         | Overall, this is hard, and it's not clear if there's real
         | demand for qualified science journalists and the articles that
         | they would, in theory, write, which means that nobody is
         | agitating to create such an infrastructure.
         | 
         | Journalism, at least right now, is a little bit like baseball:
         | a small fraction do very well, and most scrape by on a
         | starvation wage. The common refrain is that the "glut" of
         | people with science degrees should supply plenty of qualified
         | science journalists, but most of them have lower-risk career
         | opportunities, and people who go into science usually aren't
         | the risk-avid sort. You're better off becoming a teacher, and
         | in America, that's saying something.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | Natsu wrote:
         | > Big question: HOW? Most journalists in the USA receive
         | basically zero scientific education.
         | 
         | This right here is why I've mostly stopped listening to
         | journalists and try to find primary sources regarding thee
         | scientific papers, scientists, legal rulings, etc. in question
         | instead of playing a game of telephone where people reinterpret
         | everything to fit whatever story they're tying to tell me.
         | 
         | It's also why I have been finding Wikipedia less useful these
         | days, since they have an explicit policy of citing secondary
         | sources instead of primary sources and I find those far less
         | useful.
        
         | swexbe wrote:
         | The answer is more people with a background in STEM should go
         | into journalism. Sadly, that sort of specialization is
         | expensive and the public's willingness to spend on news seems
         | to have gone down.
        
           | incangold wrote:
           | YouTube and Medium are awash with scientists doing
           | journalism- there's plenty of supply.
           | 
           | Maybe the answer is that people without a STEM background
           | should get out of science journalism?
           | 
           | The question mark is genuine- would this be a bad thing for
           | some reason?
           | 
           | Not that scientist journalists don't also make mistakes of
           | course- I've seen plenty, usually due to covering topics
           | outside their own specialty.
        
             | swexbe wrote:
             | That's true, but most medium articles & blogs are experts
             | writing for other experts. I guess what's missing is
             | broadly experts writing for laymen.
        
         | MostlyStable wrote:
         | In the past, wasn't it normal for journalists to have a
         | particular specialization (even if that's not the _only_ thing
         | they did), like "science reporter" or something? It is
         | obviously impossible for every reporter to become an expert on
         | every single topic that they might ever cover, but it is not
         | unreasonable at all to get enough of a background on a topic
         | that you cover regularly to be able to ask intelligent
         | questions.
         | 
         | If news organizations were serious about this, they might
         | actively look for people who _do_ have greater amounts of
         | training/experience in a given field.
         | 
         | It may be true that in the current journalism paradigm the kind
         | of skepticism called for is impossible, but it is absolutely
         | not true that this is a fundamental state of journalism and
         | that reporters could never become capable of doing it.
        
           | blcknight wrote:
           | There are still specialists but probably not as many as
           | newsrooms have been cash strapped.
           | 
           | NPR had a bunch of economic reporters and they're mostly ok
           | but they still get a ton of stuff wrong, so it's not a great
           | solution either.
        
           | golergka wrote:
           | There isn't enough money in journalism anymore to sustain
           | this.
        
             | andromeduck wrote:
             | Colleges really need to upgrade STEM requirements for
             | liberal arts.
             | 
             | At my alma, science/engineering required 18 arts credits
             | while arts required only 6 science/math credits.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | One of the problems is that journalism just doesn't pay very
           | well in general.
           | 
           | So news organizations may look for people with more
           | experience in specific tech/science but I expect most people
           | here would laugh at the comp and most aren't interested in
           | paying for that news/writing themselves.
           | 
           | I do know tech journalists who are really good, but most of
           | the people who write on deep technical topics either don't
           | need the money or are doing it as a sideshow of their day
           | jobs.
           | 
           | (Which, if they write for independent news organizations can
           | be an issue. The WSJ reporter who basically uncovered the
           | Theranos scandal quit because he couldn't give public
           | speaking engagements.)
        
             | sportslife wrote:
             | It doesn't pay well enough now.
             | 
             | 30 years ago a BSc could accept a slightly lesser salary
             | for more wide social-cache and more excitement working on
             | magazine features and still afford a nice home in a nice
             | neighborhood. It was dollar-a-word work at the time.
             | Expenses too if you were good.
             | 
             | Pick any magazine-story-becomes-romance from the 80s, 90s,
             | 00s (e.g. How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days) to relive the glory
             | days.
             | 
             | Now, no science grad could make that choice.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Yeah. I do occasional contract work these days and $1 to
               | $1.50 a word for stuff I'm not being paid for anyway by
               | my day job is OK--and pretty much my floor. Ends up being
               | a couple hundred dollars per hour.
               | 
               | But that's really not a random online pub rate.
               | 
               | Journalism was pretty much never a super high-paying
               | profession for most but, as you say, it could be a solid
               | middle-class job which it mostly isn't today absent other
               | or related income sources (which tend to be difficult
               | given ethics rules). And working for the NYT, WSJ, Time,
               | or Newsweek certainly had a cachet as an often Ivy League
               | grad.
        
           | huffmsa wrote:
           | For some. My mother had a pretty solid biology and medical
           | background before covering medical news.
        
           | robertlagrant wrote:
           | > and that reporters could never become capable of doing it
           | 
           | I disagree for any current reporters who were selected by
           | going to journalism school rather than by gaining expertise
           | and then turning to journalism.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | J-school in general is probably a poor criterion. Someone
             | who has just done a bunch of reporting (and other things)
             | isn't really less qualified to do journalism that someone
             | with a J-school degree.
        
           | ke88y wrote:
           | Ideally, but AFAICT that's not how it works.
           | 
           | I have given a number of interviews to "Science" journalists,
           | in two occasions even for science-focused publications. In
           | each case I began the interview by asking the journalist to
           | tell me about their coursework and self-study background so I
           | can be sure to meet them where they are. In only one case
           | have I met a science reporter who I'd consider minimally
           | competent to _report_ on science -- rather than eg write puff
           | pieces -- and that reporter was educated in Europe.
        
             | Given_47 wrote:
             | Yea that's my main frustration with overall journalism. The
             | one subject where I'd consider myself in the 99th
             | percentile of knowledge (more of a reflection of the
             | sample) is basketball and it drives me up a wall the number
             | of Medill type, classically trained journalists who write
             | about a thing they _barely_ understand. It's such a
             | disservice to the audience and borderline blatant
             | misinformation
        
             | ricksunny wrote:
             | Yes, and Ashley Rindsberg covers the science-writer / sci-
             | journo divide well, a divide which I was not hip to prior:
             | 
             | "The deeper phenomenon at work, however, is that in the
             | U.S. a large number of professionals who cover science for
             | general readers and for news publications like The New York
             | Times or The Wall Street Journal are not--and do not
             | pretend to be--journalists per se. They are science writers
             | whose field is science communications--a distinction with a
             | huge difference. They see their role as translating the
             | lofty work of pure science for a general audience, rather
             | than as professional skeptics whose job is to investigate
             | the competing interests, claims, and billion-dollar funding
             | streams in the messy world of all-too-human scientists."
             | 
             | https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/treason-
             | sci...
        
         | robomartin wrote:
         | > Big question: HOW?
         | 
         | Simple: If they are not equipped to understand what they are
         | going to write about, they should refrain from adding noise to
         | the conversation. The potential to add nothing but noise or
         | cause damage is great.
         | 
         | Interestingly enough nobody would ever propose that, say, a
         | fashion journalist report on surgical procedures or a range of
         | other subjects. How is this problem not obvious in other
         | domains?
         | 
         | It's interesting to watch the difference between a
         | reporter/journalist on any TV news show and, say, the people
         | working at a financial news network like CNBC. In the latter
         | case, they have to have a serious body of knowledge just to
         | open their mouths. If you plucked your average
         | reporter/journalist and put them into that seat, they would
         | sound like complete morons because they just would not know
         | what they are talking about.
        
         | legitster wrote:
         | Academia has sold itself and the world that it is only
         | scrutinizable unto itself. But this was not always the case.
         | 
         | If you read scientific papers from 50 or 100 years ago, they
         | are surprisingly readable. There also used to be much more
         | involvement from "lay-scientists" and hobbyists.
        
           | vondur wrote:
           | As the fields have become more and more specialized over the
           | years, and the technology has increased, it's gets more
           | difficult to write about subjects without using jargon and
           | more complicated visualizations. As mentioned in other
           | comments, having journalists with a science background would
           | definitely help.
        
           | jfengel wrote:
           | That was easier to do 50 or 100 years ago. The longer we do
           | science, the more we already know. Finding something novel
           | gets harder and harder. It becomes less and less likely that
           | you can find it without having spent a long time learning
           | what's already known.
           | 
           | Academics certainly could be better writers and communicators
           | now, but non-scientists cannot expect to understand most work
           | that required years of education before they could perform
           | it. The public can be given a rapid education in it when it
           | matters, but that rapid education isn't going to put them in
           | a position to critique the work. And when the public mistakes
           | that rapid education for a superior grasp of the topic, it
           | becomes a huge drain on the academics' time to correct the
           | misconceptions.
        
             | legitster wrote:
             | Maybe this is true for some of the advanced sciences. But
             | when it comes to some of the topics that get the most news
             | coverage (psychology, public health, economics) you're not
             | dealing with controlled experiments. So much of it is just
             | random sampling and double blind studies.
             | 
             | This work is good. But none of this work is particularly
             | complicated or hard to understand - and so much of the
             | "education" is busy work or learning the "inside baseball"
             | of how to get meaningful results and how to get published.
             | 
             | When we are talking about "trust the scientists" no one is
             | really arguing that nuclear scientists or aeronautical
             | engineers don't know what they are talking about. We're
             | really talking about whether we should listen to an
             | epidemiologist just because they have spent so much time
             | looking at these studies (often conflicting!) that they can
             | squint their eyes when they look at a set of data and give
             | a more qualified off-the-cuff opinion.
        
         | thrashh wrote:
         | You don't judge a source by reading the source itself.
         | 
         | Usually you do so by considering the context in which the
         | source is made and then you might consult someone who can read
         | the source (who also needs to be judged based on the context in
         | which they are giving you advice).
        
           | ke88y wrote:
           | _> You don't judge a source by reading the source itself._
           | 
           | Well then, I guess we at least agree on the following: today
           | we have science "reporting" done by "journalists" who will
           | write about findings reported in publications that they
           | haven't read and self-admittedly can't read.
           | 
           | I suppose we can agree to disagree about the usefulness of
           | that reporting and the potential harm of that reporting.
           | 
           |  _> Usually you do so by considering the context in which the
           | source is made and then you might consult someone who can
           | read the source (who also needs to be judged based on the
           | context in which they are giving you advice)._
           | 
           | You are missing the word ALSO. As in, you do so by reading
           | and evaluating the source and then ALSO considering the
           | surrounding context.
           | 
           | Palace intrigue isn't something that should be ignored, but
           | it also shouldn't be the entire story.
        
         | blitz_skull wrote:
         | Simple: Stop believing it's true just because a scientist said
         | it.
         | 
         | You don't need a STEM degree to stop propagating theories
         | before they're proven.
        
           | jimbokun wrote:
           | Yes.
           | 
           | The whole point of science is that you do not have to believe
           | anything just because a scientist said it. Only thing that
           | matters is the validity of their data, whether the data truly
           | backs their interpretation, and if the findings can be
           | replicated.
        
           | dekhn wrote:
           | Wouldn't that mean that Galileo and Newton's discoveries
           | would have had little to no impact?
           | 
           | For modern endeavors, it's hard to see how anybody who didn't
           | have a detailed education in the subject could really
           | contribute in a useful way to debunking junk science. I can
           | see this happening for papers that can be dismissed outright
           | because the authors made egregious errors in the study design
           | or data collection (where data scientists/statisticians who
           | don't work in the field can still be very useful), but for
           | most modern physics or medical research, there are literally
           | hundreds of years of well-established theory and practice
           | that you absolutely need to know before dismissing ideas that
           | don't make sense.
           | 
           | This is especially important in areas like infectious
           | disease.
        
         | taeric wrote:
         | Often the best way to be productively skeptical is to ask
         | questions and get more sources? It can be frustrating for some
         | scientific figureheads, but the adage of "no dumb questions"
         | came to be for a reason.
         | 
         | And don't get led astray by looking for "productivity." So much
         | advancement is lost on the alter of efficiency and
         | productivity. Yes, if you know the correct next move to make,
         | do it. But don't discount exploration and general play.
        
           | ke88y wrote:
           | But who? And what questions do you ask? Without a baseline,
           | you're poking around in the dark. Or knocking on the same 20
           | doors at the same 20 universities, and all those people talk
           | to each other and they and their students all sit on each
           | others' grant review committees. Etc. And when two scientists
           | disagree about the evidence, how do you determine whether one
           | of them is a total quack? Or do you just report everything
           | that everyone says as long as they say big words you don't
           | know?
           | 
           | It's really easy to be unproductively skeptical. Never
           | believe anything. Everything is a lie or a conspiracy. That's
           | not particularly productive, though, because although it
           | protects you from lies and bad actors it will never get you
           | to the truth.
        
             | taeric wrote:
             | Sorry, I meant to be more explicit there. I don't believe
             | in "full productivity" in the search for things. You will,
             | by necessity, waste some time.
             | 
             | Do try and make sure you aren't completely poking around in
             | the dark. But also don't feel bad if you find out you were.
             | 
             | I do hate that I'm posting this in this thread. At large, I
             | get the impression that the "coverup" is being blown out of
             | proportion. I also can't deny that a lot of the dismissals
             | earlier were heavy handed. Such that some topics and
             | inquiries have somehow become toxic.
             | 
             | But, at large, most "quack" theories don't have to be fully
             | dismissed by other scientists. They are more easily
             | explained with other ideas. It can be frustrating for some
             | of them, as I'm sure many are tired of hearing about "UFOs"
             | and such. But for a lot of crazier ideas, the "dismissal"
             | can quite literally be "that necessarily leads to enough
             | other things that we are not seeing, that I just can't
             | bring myself to believe it right now."
             | 
             | This does require, though, that asking the questions is not
             | done in such a way to paint a contest. Try to build the
             | questions in such a way to expand ideas.
        
             | jimbokun wrote:
             | But isn't that a journalist's job description?
        
         | andreygrehov wrote:
         | > Big question: HOW?
         | 
         | Independent, transparent and publicly available journalism
         | (open to critics) simplifies things a lot.
        
         | AnimalMuppet wrote:
         | Most journalists aren't experts on the law, either. How do they
         | report on court cases?
         | 
         | They aren't experts on aviation safety. How do they report on
         | airplane crashes?
         | 
         | They aren't experts on economics. How do they report financial
         | news?
         | 
         | They're supposed to be experts at _reporting_ , which works out
         | to mean experts at _finding out about topics that they don 't
         | already know about_.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Well that explains why most reporting on aviation and
           | financial issues in the mainstream media is such garbage. I
           | mean I'm hardly an expert in those areas but even I can tell
           | that the stories are crap in terms of missing key facts, not
           | asking relevant questions, drawing bad conclusions, and
           | pushing biased narratives. Fortunately there are some YouTube
           | channels where I can get good information on those topics,
           | although they aren't typically labeled as journalists and
           | don't work for media companies.
        
           | Fomite wrote:
           | Based on most of the lawyers I know? Poorly.
        
           | ke88y wrote:
           | _> Most journalists aren 't experts on the law, either. How
           | do they report on court cases?_
           | 
           | Journalists have roughly the same undergraduate educational
           | background as lawyers and receive a half-decent education on
           | the high level basics of the American legal system in civics
           | courses.
           | 
           |  _> They aren 't experts on aviation safety. How do they
           | report on airplane crashes?_
           | 
           | Crashes themselves often don't require any amount of aviation
           | expertise.
           | 
           |  _> They aren 't experts on economics. How do they report
           | financial news?_
           | 
           | Mostly poorly, which is why eg Bloomberg's retail news
           | business exists, and most of those folks have some financial
           | background.
        
           | coolliquidcode wrote:
           | They do it very incompetently. The quality of reporting
           | anymore is ridiculously low.
           | 
           | It's not about being an expert in the subject but having a
           | fundamental understanding and being logically minded enough
           | to perform fact based and critically thought out reporting.
           | 
           | Now everything is so trashy, economics is how they can bash
           | their least favorite company or billionaire, law reporting is
           | one-sided story telling for bashing or cheerleading someone
           | in court, same with politics. It's mostly story telling
           | anymore geared for entertainment or outrage.
        
         | techx wrote:
         | A news outlet can hire scientists to call out shady scientific
         | paper, many scientific paper have obvious bad conclusions, or
         | not following basic scientific rules, that can be detected even
         | if the scientist reviewing is specialized in another fields.
        
         | grammers wrote:
         | Exactly. In addition, how would you gather any information at
         | all if there's no one to trust. Yes, fake news are a huge
         | problem, but we need reliable sources to gather information.
        
           | andreygrehov wrote:
           | You don't need a reliable source. Maximizing the chances that
           | a source is reliable is good enough. This can be achieved by
           | maximizing the number of journalists attacking the same
           | problem. The process must be transparent and publicly
           | available / open to critics. People (non-journalists,
           | readers) will point out if something smells suspicious.
        
       | cbeach wrote:
       | The answer is plurality within the scientific community.
       | 
       | During the Covid authoritarian period, scientists like Dr Robert
       | Malone were evicted from society because they didn't toe the
       | government line on support for mRNA vaccination.
       | 
       | I'm not saying Malone and co were right, necessarily, but the way
       | they were shut down and demonised suggested to me that we stopped
       | doing real scientific enquiry for a couple of years and succumbed
       | to corporate lobbying and government over-reach.
        
       | zzbn00 wrote:
       | Very much so, and especially since a scientific paper that was
       | published (after peer review) means that it is of interest to
       | other scientist, not that it is a fact.
       | 
       | But there is also another good point in the post: scientist need
       | to be full and frank in their scientific writing. Selectively
       | reporting results creates a huge problem in the literature.
       | 
       | But unfortunately this creates rather less hype which is what
       | even research institutions increasingly need to survive it seems
        
         | ajmurmann wrote:
         | "Very much so, and especially since a scientific paper that was
         | published (after peer review) means that it is of interest to
         | other scientist, not that it is a fact."
         | 
         | This is leaving out important nuance. You are right that it
         | doesn't mean it's fact. It does mean though that other
         | qualified researchers in the same field didn't find important
         | flaws in there study. They didn't reproduce it, but from what's
         | in the paper itself, it looks solid. This is a big difference
         | to plainly finding it "interesting". I'm not certain to what
         | degree "interesting" is even part of the review process by the
         | peers for most journals or to what degree that falls to a
         | different role.
        
       | avenido wrote:
       | "They also thought they were going to get away with it. 'The
       | truth is never going to come out', wrote Rambaut in one message."
       | 
       | He took that statement way out of context. They were looking for
       | the best explanation and given that their assumption of "the
       | truth" about a lab leak wouldn't avail itself, they felt they
       | needed to go on what would be a plausible scenario - a natural
       | evolution of a virus.
        
       | andreygrehov wrote:
       | I agree. However, the problem lies far beyond the journalists'
       | power. Let's take the latest investigation on the Biden family as
       | an example. The IRS led the investigation for several years, and
       | the IRS special agent provided a substantial amount of
       | information pointing to bribes during their testimony. However,
       | one of the political parties, including the FBI, showed no
       | interest in finding the truth. This was evident from the type of
       | questions that were asked. Why do they do that? Because they are
       | protecting their own interests.
       | 
       | When it comes to journalism, we can observe the exact same
       | pattern. Journalists are not allowed to be skeptical because
       | their skepticism could impact their company's ad revenue. When I
       | worked at Huffington Post, I was not "allowed" to say anything
       | negative about the then-President (Barack Obama). Even after the
       | FBI was pressured to release all the Biden documents (FD-1023 -
       | the one they were initially denying the existence of), the
       | "reputable" news outlets remain predominantly silent. Ad revenue
       | is a significant factor in this silence. They are protecting
       | their own interests.
        
       | epistasis wrote:
       | But especially skeptical of pundits like Nate Silver.
        
         | zzzeek wrote:
         | Seriously, shouldn't they at least get Matt Taibbi's take also
        
           | epistasis wrote:
           | I'm sure Michael Schillenbergee has some opinions that he in
           | no way financially benefits from spreading.
        
       | robot_no_421 wrote:
       | Everyone should be skeptical of all sources.
       | 
       | But out of the myriad of various opinions coming from
       | politicians, CEOs, propagandists, flat out out idiots, and
       | everything else in between, scientists are arguably the class of
       | truth sayers you should be least skeptical of.
       | 
       | So while the title is technically true and I agree with the
       | premise of the article, the article itself is wholly unnecessary
       | at best and damaging at worst. Until we begin to be more
       | skeptical in general and learn to distrust all the other
       | mouthpieces vomiting lies every day, let's trust the scientists.
        
         | rossdavidh wrote:
         | The essence of science is not trusting an expert, but requiring
         | evidence and repeatability. Scientists aren't more trustworthy
         | than those other groups for no reason, it's because they work
         | in a field where work can be double-checked. As the
         | repeatability crisis has shown, many believe their work will
         | not be double-checked, and once they believe that, they become
         | less and less worthy of that trust.
        
           | robot_no_421 wrote:
           | Right, that's why my first sentence was "everyone should be
           | skeptical of every source"....
           | 
           | But if I'm forced to trust someone (and most of us are on a
           | daily basis), I'd rather trust the guys whose whole job
           | revolves around the principle of "we require evidence and
           | repeatable results before we believe you" than pretty much
           | every other profession.
           | 
           | Completely separate from my above point, I'd also say that I
           | do believe scientists are on average more trustworthy than
           | other career workers at a personal level. It's a profession
           | that tends to attract people concerned with objective truth
           | and rational logic. Just like how politics tends to attract
           | those who want to work with people and the police force
           | attracts people who are comfortable with violence. At least
           | from my personal, anecdotal view.
        
         | tetrep wrote:
         | > But out of the myriad of various opinions coming from
         | politicians, CEOs, propagandists, flat out out idiots, and
         | everything else in between, scientists are arguably the class
         | of truth sayers you should be least skeptical of.
         | 
         | If the CEO of a gambling company said, "Gambling is good." Do
         | you think that would be more or less effective propaganda that
         | if the CEO paid someone else, let's say someone in a white lab
         | coat, to say the same? I think that scientists are more likely
         | to abuse the trust because it's implicit. You can't expect to
         | abuse someone's trust in you (e.g. as a scientist) if you don't
         | expect people to trust you. All the people you listed as
         | untrustworthy are _obviously_ untrustworthy, which is what
         | makes them not a serious risk. Saying  "I really want to trust
         | scientists" is the same as saying "If you want to exploit me,
         | use a scientist to do it." I don't think you need to look any
         | further than the Tobacco industry to see why blindly trusting
         | scientists is not a viable mitigation to propaganda.
         | 
         | I don't really have a good answer for how to make a good
         | decision when you're ignorant (trusting scientists would make
         | this easier), and we're all ignorant about most things. Being
         | skeptical doesn't give you good knowledge, it just mitigates
         | absorbing bad knowledge. So you're kinda stuck if you need to
         | e.g. make a risk based decision about COVID and you don't trust
         | scientists.
        
           | robot_no_421 wrote:
           | >If the CEO of a gambling company said, "Gambling is good."
           | Do you think that would be more or less effective propaganda
           | that if the CEO paid someone else, let's say someone in a
           | white lab coat, to say the same?
           | 
           | Difference is that a the guy in the lab coat has to conduct
           | experiments on it, get them peer reviewed, publish a paper on
           | it, and lay out all the assumptions and methodologies before
           | it's actually "science". So it's not as simple as getting a
           | guy in a lab coat to say it. Especially when all the other
           | guys in lab coats are saying "that guy is lying and his
           | methodology is garbage".
        
             | tetrep wrote:
             | And that's why everyone knows there's no relationship
             | between autism and vaccines?
             | 
             | I think you're underestimating the ability for people to
             | abuse trust, i.e. lie.
             | 
             | You can't say "trust scientist A but not scientist B"
             | unless you've got some way to judge them. Which we don't as
             | we're the ignorant laymen.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccines_and_autism
             | 
             | edit: Global warming would have been a better example. You
             | can point to scientists on "both sides" that each say the
             | other is wrong. No amount of "blindly trust scientists"
             | makes it better.
        
         | fkingmagnets wrote:
         | I don't trust scientists, in particular doctors, when they're
         | effectively bought by big pharma.
         | 
         | I don't care if you have ten degrees from Harvard Medical
         | School if you also take a 7 figure paycheck from big pharma,
         | you're a big pharma rep as far as I'm concerned.
         | 
         | Same with economists who shill for various groups, and so on.
         | 
         | I suppose I can trust astrophysicists because so far we have no
         | evidence they've been bought by alien civilizations.
        
         | intrasight wrote:
         | My take as well. And you don't have to be an expert to be
         | skeptical.
        
       | aredox wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | roody15 wrote:
       | " The Times fired their Pulitzer Prize-winning coronavirus
       | reporter in middle of the pandemic -- a reporter who saw the lab
       | leak theory as credible -- and replaced him with another reporter
       | who dismissed discussion of the lab leak as "racist"."
       | 
       | This about sums up the state of modern journalism today .. sadly.
        
       | yosito wrote:
       | And readers should be skeptical of journalists. And everyone
       | should be skeptical of everyone. Skeptical thinking should be a
       | way of life.
        
       | MostlyStable wrote:
       | I wonder what he'd have to say about the article published on
       | FiveThirtyEight in May of 2020 that prominently cites one of the
       | authors of this very paper [0]. I don't think he was very heavily
       | involved in the science-reporting side of fivethirtyeight (he's
       | always very obviously been more on the sports and politics side),
       | and since at this point since he's no longer affiliated with the
       | site, it sort of doesn't matter, but I'm also pretty sure that he
       | didn't just come to the belief espoused in this post recently. I
       | wonder if there were ever internal discussions about the piece.
       | 
       | [0]https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-
       | th...
        
       | legitster wrote:
       | I respect this position on principal, but I also forget like we
       | are equally glossing over the context in this specific case.
       | 
       | In 2020, the lab-leak theory was specifically being promoted by
       | people who were advancing the idea that Covid was a) an
       | engineered bio-weapon b) required a national security response in
       | lieu of a medical one.
       | 
       | But if we really want to look back at 2020-2021, there were MUCH
       | more egregious examples of "experts" wielding their credentials
       | maliciously. School closures I think will be the most pertinent
       | example for a while to come.
        
         | RyanAdamas wrote:
         | Incorrect, the lab-leak theory was specifically disregarded
         | using the well-poisoning methods you described as the blame
         | would be shifted to a wild-goose chase. Considering China went
         | through SARS 10 years previous with hundreds of millions of
         | patients to examine, combined with the influx of viral research
         | into the country after that period, it is by no means a stretch
         | to assume duplicity was at hand. A for-profit medical response
         | is a conflation of the kind you are suggesting should have
         | taken place.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | At the end of the day, no one really should have cared that
           | much where Covid came from in 2020. The only people who
           | really cared were people who were trying to win a game of
           | political football. This is equally true with the scientists
           | in the Lancet letter as it was with politicians trying to win
           | a pissing match with China.
        
         | pgrote wrote:
         | Sort of tossing the baby out with the bath water.
         | 
         | If anyone posited alternate origins except what was the
         | accepted leading thought of the time, they were ostracized
         | across many segments of society. It became one of the things
         | you couldn't discuss publicly.
         | 
         | Many topics became like this during covid including your
         | mention of school closures. Weird time.
        
         | ctrlp wrote:
         | Both those ideas (a,b) are look to be vindicated. It does look
         | like an engineered bio-weapon and there is a lot of
         | circumstantial evidence to support that conclusion. And whether
         | the people pointing to a lab leak were also demanding a
         | national security response or opposing one, that _is_ what
         | happened, i.e., it _was_ a national security response (big
         | pharma white labeling and providing distribution for DoD
         | subcontractors product). Simple as.
        
       | biophysboy wrote:
       | One thing that dulls my interest in this debate is my doubt that
       | it will ever get "resolved". We dont have sequence samples at the
       | time of covids origin. China is never going to cooperate on
       | giving more circumstantial evidence. So we cant really do any
       | phylogenetic or epidemiological analysis at the level of spatial
       | precision that this would require. The data is extremely fuzzy
       | where it needs to be sharp. In my opinion, this is the real thing
       | stalling this debate, not politics.
        
         | wredue wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | rossdavidh wrote:
           | This sounds like "your theory is outside the Overton window,
           | you are not allowed to think this". The simplest version of
           | the lab leak theory is not a conspiracy, it is very literally
           | the opposite: "never ascribe to conspiracy what is adequately
           | explained by incompetence". We had warnings, in writing,
           | about the very lab in question, from western scientists, that
           | the safety standards there were insufficient.
        
           | TheBigSalad wrote:
           | Everyone is in agreement that the first known super spreader
           | event was at that market. I don't really see how that's
           | evidence one way or the other.
        
           | zmgsabst wrote:
           | We don't have zero evidence:
           | 
           | - we know of the US funding collection of coronaviruses at
           | WIV; and research on them using humanized mice
           | 
           | - we know that the closest genetic match is a thousand miles
           | away
           | 
           | - we've been unable to identify the precursor in an animal,
           | unlike other pandemics
           | 
           | That strongly implies that directed evolution on a collected
           | sample via repeated infection of humanized mice is
           | responsible for COVID.
           | 
           | Contrary to your claims, there's evidence against a zoonotic
           | origin -- no precursor, high human infectivity (of alpha)
           | that rapidly decreased in the wild (in delta and omicron),
           | unusual genetics around the furin cleavage, etc.
        
         | mrguyorama wrote:
         | There's really no reason to care about which of the two
         | prevailing theories are right, because they have the exact same
         | outcome: Whether it came from the chinese lab or the chinese
         | wet market, china will not let anyone know, and they have no
         | intention of letting anyone else tell them how to prevent it in
         | the future. We cannot make them run their bio labs safer, and
         | we cannot force them to prevent a natural source without
         | something stupid like extreme sanctions or war.
         | 
         | So instead, we could look at the ways we utterly fucked up when
         | presented with a novel pathogen that we absolutely could have
         | handled better. But oddly nobody who is so gung ho about
         | punishing china for covid seems to want to look at that. Wonder
         | why
        
           | zmgsabst wrote:
           | A lab leak implies that we should cease funding work at WIV
           | -- and examine the officials responsible for doing so in the
           | first place.
           | 
           | Perhaps even reconsider our entire approach to pandemic
           | research, if our decisions led to the worst pandemic in
           | generations.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | gunapologist99 wrote:
         | Then why didn't the scientists simply say 'we lack the data to
         | conclusively resolve'?
         | 
         | There _was_ a specific reason why they didn 't -- and in fact
         | promoted a specific theory, and it had more to do with politics
         | and funding than science.
        
         | krisoft wrote:
         | > China is never going to cooperate on giving more
         | circumstantial evidence
         | 
         | > In my opinion, this is the real thing stalling this debate,
         | not politics.
         | 
         | But isn't that politics? (International politics to be
         | precise.)
        
       | johntfella wrote:
       | Hanson's idea (https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/gamble.html) of a
       | betting market for science could be an interesting model for
       | journalism. Probably easier said than done.
        
       | thewanderer1983 wrote:
       | ""trust the science" or "trust the experts" is usually right."
       | 
       | This statement and general belief is antithetical to science. Dr.
       | Brett Weinstein and Heather Heying talk about this misconception
       | of science on their Darkhorse podcast all the time. Dr Brian
       | Keating nicely summarises this issue in this short video
       | https://youtu.be/gAqq72m-ipo
       | 
       | You should "trust the scientific method" when done correctly.
        
         | antisthenes wrote:
         | > This statement and general belief is antithetical to science.
         | 
         | No, it's not. 99% of the population doesn't have the cognitive
         | ability to independently verify whether a scientific publishing
         | has had rigorous checks on its scientific method and
         | methodologies and samples were selected appropriately.
         | 
         | In this scenario, you should trust the science and/or experts,
         | _unless_ other experts have verified that the findings are
         | garbage and /or something was fabricated.
         | 
         | What's _really_ antithetical to science is when people present
         | sources as having equal weights.
         | 
         | Joe Rogan vs Meta-analysis of 30 studies does not have the same
         | weight.
        
       | unethical_ban wrote:
       | Personally, I never accepted that a lab leak was out of the
       | question. I simply didn't think it mattered during the early days
       | of the pandemic response (to the everyday citizen) since it
       | didn't influence safe hygiene and social distancing. It was used
       | by conservative media as something for their base to get mad
       | about and be mildly racist about (Wuhan flu).
       | 
       | What was more egregious was Dr. Fauci's assertion that masking
       | wouldn't help slow the spread, which he likely knew to be false
       | and had said so to prevent a run on N95s. I get it, but that is a
       | huge undermining of public trust.
        
       | matt3210 wrote:
       | In 2023 I assume all news is biased or flat false. I assume all
       | video is doctored or flat out generated. After one day I stopped
       | consuming it all together as it was a pointless waste of time
        
       | swayvil wrote:
       | Consider the knowledge quality gradient. Ordered high to low.
       | 
       | 1) see it yourself.
       | 
       | 2) heard it from a friend.
       | 
       | 3) bullshit.
        
       | mquander wrote:
       | As long as the business model of journalism is running on fumes,
       | there isn't going to be a renaissance in journalism quality.
       | Truth-seeking is time-consuming and will always be inherently
       | trading off against other local incentives, like writing quickly,
       | writing exciting things, and writing things that your audience
       | will like. If almost all journalists have to bust their ass just
       | to survive, a truth-seeking culture won't thrive.
       | 
       | I think there are three main ways I can see things getting
       | better:
       | 
       | 1. Governments and academia have lots of money, but the money
       | gets fed into a system of incentives that make academics not that
       | good at either truth-seeking or popularizing their own work. This
       | could change.
       | 
       | 2. There is a large population of smart people who collectively
       | can do a lot of truth-seeking and writing in their spare time,
       | without needing to make money from it. However, right now there's
       | not a particularly coherent way that those people can work
       | together and produce collective information that is as easy to
       | find and understand as mainstream media outlets. Improving
       | technology to let amateurs work together and aggregate their
       | opinions could be powerful.
       | 
       | 3. The funding model for journalism could continue to evolve so
       | that people who choose to do so can more directly fund truth-
       | seeking journalism. Crowdfunding and self-publishing platforms
       | are in this direction. This seems to me like it's already working
       | fairly well in some cases to fund people's work, but then the
       | attention market is not great at highlighting the more reliable
       | voices, which is similar to the problem in point #2.
        
       | truSo wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | b8 wrote:
       | Trust, but verify. This also reminds me of, "There's no truth in
       | the news and no news in the truth".
        
       | pessimizer wrote:
       | Journalists these days are generally _not hired_ for their
       | incredulity. They 're hired based on a track record of not
       | deviating from their employer's political and financial
       | priorities, regardless of the evidence. These are businesses, not
       | public services. They owe their existence to dishonest and
       | manipulative presentations of the qualities of third-party
       | products that they sandwich between their own content.
       | 
       | Lets go back to the days where media outlets were open about
       | their editorial stances, rather than hiding them behind a veil of
       | white-coated objectivity. Propagandists should stop pretending to
       | be doctors, and just be _honest_ propagandists.
       | 
       | Putting it all on Democrats isn't completely fair, although I get
       | how bitter Silver is that they sanctified him when he told them
       | what they wanted to hear and condemned him when the data pointed
       | the other way. It could have just as easily been the Republicans
       | in control of those institutions now if the party weren't so
       | hostile to minorities.
       | 
       | That hostility cut them off from dominance of the nonprofit
       | sector, which serves to convert the money of governments (i.e.
       | the will of elected officials) and oligarchs into media messages.
       | They're stuck with thinktanks and veteran's organizations,
       | although they sometimes find openings in patient's rights
       | nonprofits (run by pharmaceutical companies.)
        
         | no_butterscotch wrote:
         | Yes additionally journalists are a sort of priestly caste in
         | our secular society.
         | 
         | I'm personally not a fan as there's a lot of self-anointed
         | representation by journos: "We're the voice of the people!" No
         | you are not my voice! You are not elected! You are the voice of
         | advertisers, your business and your political interests!
        
         | jimbokun wrote:
         | The Republicans absolutely have their own media organizations,
         | just as likely to get the facts wrong in a way that's biased
         | towards Republican interests.
         | 
         | It's just that the expectations are so low for them no one is
         | surprised when they report things with an obvious slant or just
         | factually wrong.
        
           | pessimizer wrote:
           | > The Republicans absolutely have their own media
           | organizations
           | 
           | Everybody has their own media organizations.
           | 
           | > just as likely to get the facts wrong in a way that's
           | biased towards Republican interests.
           | 
           | This is both the law of averages, and also not relevant even
           | if you had a good reason for saying it. I'm not saying the
           | Republicans are any more honest than the Democrats (god
           | forbid.) The Democrats are generally pushing for the same
           | policies as the Republicans, except in matters that split
           | their bases; we're still living in Reagan's world. Democrats
           | are dominant now because they control nonprofits that are
           | funded by the government and because they are supported by
           | more billionaires. No other reason.
           | 
           | 20 years from now it could be the Republicans in that
           | position. It isn't like they don't have the ability; their
           | takeover of state governments and redistricting is basically
           | the same sort of tactic.
        
             | enragedcacti wrote:
             | > and because they are supported by more billionaires. No
             | other reason.
             | 
             | If we take the 2022 House races, republican's House PAC
             | received $79 million from 42 billionaires or their spouses,
             | while democrat's House PAC received only $20 million from
             | 17 billionaires or their spouses.
             | 
             | The numbers might play a little differently if you look at
             | all donations to party affiliated PACs and individual
             | campaigns but it doesn't seem like it reverses the overall
             | trend.
             | 
             | https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/article/meet-the-
             | bill...
             | 
             | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-billionaires-
             | politic...
        
             | stubybubs wrote:
             | >The Democrats are generally pushing for the same policies
             | as the Republicans, except in matters that split their
             | bases; we're still living in Reagan's world.
             | 
             | I don't think this is true anymore. See what Lina Khan was
             | appointed to do and is doing with the FTC. It's the first
             | step in a long road of undoing decades of Reaganism.
             | 
             | https://pluralistic.net/2023/07/14/making-good-
             | trouble/#the-...
        
       | AlbertCory wrote:
       | This is actually an excellent article. If you look at why he says
       | the lab-leak theory was problematic for these "journalists" (and
       | the quotes are deliberate), none of the reasons are "it isn't
       | true":
       | 
       | 1. It could cause a political backlash
       | 
       | 2. It could upset China and undermine research collaborations
       | 
       | 3. It could provide validation to Trump and Republicans who
       | touted the theory
       | 
       | But in fact, the journalist's _only_ legitimate question is  "is
       | it true?" The consequences of reporting on it are not their
       | concern.
       | 
       | There was a time when journalists thought that way, or at least
       | made a show of it. That time might have been a few brief decades,
       | but it was there.
        
       | stainablesteel wrote:
       | define journalist:
       | 
       | 1. an independent youtuber, who gives their opinion, can admit
       | their bias, and is able to operate on good faith while allowing
       | open discussions with people they disagree with
       | 
       | 2. a corporate "journalist" who's integrity has become second
       | rate in the age of the internet, who uses language as an
       | instrument to get people to admit what they want them to admit in
       | the most petty way possible
       | 
       | i can agree with 1, i don't think 2 fits the definition
       | _anymore_. it used to be the best we had for a few decades, but
       | that age is over now. i don 't think 1 has any problem with
       | admitting what should be an area of skepticism. however, i don't
       | think that 2 is actually a journalist as they're not motivated to
       | share information, they're instead motivated by the narratives of
       | their employer
        
         | no_butterscotch wrote:
         | Yes this. Additionally (1) has no "higher caste" mentality.
         | Whereas (2) often believe themselves to be the anointed truth-
         | sayers of a secular world. Generally speaking they don't live
         | up to that promise.
        
       | Thoeu388 wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | Goes without saying. "Trusted" sources can also spin stories to
       | the general public and conflicts of interests can happen which
       | the established media can close ranks to protect each other.
       | 
       | Presenting all sides paints the entire picture.
        
       | Spinnaker_ wrote:
       | I don't think Journalists have the skills to be able to actually
       | dig into and verify most types of science. So I don't think it's
       | realistic to hold them to such a high standard.
       | 
       | But they absolutely do have the skills to shape the narrative.
       | And In this case they failed spectacularly. Many seemed overly
       | eager to attack and destroy any who came to a different
       | conclusion. It seems like they took glee in it. Their behaviour
       | was embarrassing, and there appears to have been very little
       | acknowledgement or self reflection of this.
        
       | t0bia_s wrote:
       | Journalist shouldn't be surprised why there is huge drop in trust
       | in mainstream media. Covid exposed perfectly how terrible quick
       | journalism is.
        
       | ctrlp wrote:
       | Nate Silver fundamentally misunderstands his own role in the
       | information ecosystem. He and other journalists are primarily
       | votaries to the mainline political myths of our time. This idea
       | that they _should_ be skeptical is laughable on its face. They
       | _can 't_ do that, not meaningfully. Mostly, they can't actually
       | _think_ outside the religion, but even if they could they can 't
       | write skeptically without losing their careers.
       | 
       | There is an Overton window, and journalists are the Cerberus of
       | the ideological superstructure of our society. If you're not
       | familiar, Cerberus guards the gates of the Underworld and ensures
       | that the spirits of the dead cannot leave the Underworld and that
       | the living cannot enter it. That's basically the function of
       | "journalists". Mainline newspapers and their scribblers share all
       | the limitations of the governing classes and they never willingly
       | place themselves in minority positions.
        
         | rossdavidh wrote:
         | While there are some (many) like that, I don't believe that
         | Nate Silver is one of them.
        
           | ctrlp wrote:
           | but why?
        
       | TechBro8615 wrote:
       | If you don't trust 'em, don't read 'em. The problem will solve
       | itself.
        
       | papito wrote:
       | There are professional journalists out there who in most
       | organizations will get into hot water or lose their jobs if they
       | fabricate news or sources.
       | 
       | They will have biases, they will make mistakes, but most of them
       | will do at least some due diligence, and together with fact
       | checkers - this is the best we have.
       | 
       | Accept that and move on - or sit there and tell yourself that
       | "nothing is true, nothing is real". Get your news from
       | @HotJerseyGirl1998.
        
       | [deleted]
        
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